SB Nation - Kyle Farnsworth

Who Was Your Least Favorite Royal of 2009?

royalsreview — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:37:10 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

7 months ago: Kansas City Royals right fielder Jose Guillen can't catch the ball as Los Angeles Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick (47) hits an inside-the-park home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, May 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

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Despite Zack Greinke's greatness, nobody really liked the 2009 Royals. Dayton made a number of bizarre signings during the off-season, then responded with even stranger ones in-season.

So who was your least favorite Royal of 2009?

The Nominees:

Kyle Farnsworth: A brilliant symbol of both Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman's weaknesses. Signed to a 2 year/$9 million dollar contract in the off-season that everyone hated. Was inexplicably named the setup-man/8th inning guy on Opening Day Eve by Hillman. Everyone thought this was insane. Farnsy gave up game-losing bomb the next day. Hey continued to fail until he was demoted, then he went on a long scoreless innings streak. Farnsworth ended up posting his lowest HR/9 numbers in ages, and still was below average.

Mike Jacobs: Jacobs didn't replicate his career year, another stroke of terrible luck to befall Dayton Moore. Gloriously managed a sub-.300 OBP. Could not handle the easiest position on the field. Frequently swung hard. Chewed gigantic amounts of tobacco while at the plate.

Jose Guillen: Ended the debate about his suckitude by achieving near perfect negative value. Hit .242/.314/.367 with absolutely horrific defense. Showed tremendous ability to turn fly ball outs into home runs for the other team. Has potential to unknowingly play a key role in the next game-fixing scandal. Hated by half the teams in the game. Contract is among worst in professional sports. Bonus status as the captain of Dayton's Awful Ex-Mariners Team.

Josh Anderson: Acquired by Dayton Moore in July for no apparent reason. Anderson had not hit before and he did not hit as a Royal, posting a .237/.268/.288. (Let's be fair, he has the ability to post a .280 OBP in full-time action.) Was a favorite late-game toy of Hillman. Does not appear to have blood.

Yuniesky Betancourt: Mysteriously picked up by Dayton Moore mid-season. Has no apparent strengths as a player. Has bizarre name. Costs much more than the minimum salary. Played key role in letting fans know that team is run by people who are ... ah, what's the point?

Willie Bloomquist: St. Willie turned in the greatest .265/.308/.355 season by a guy without a position in history. This was the Dayton Moore move that "worked" and .308 OBP, in Royalsville, is nothing to sneeze at.

Ryan Freel: Owning a .140/.275/.140 line with the Orioles & Cubs, Freel was acquired by Moore leading up to the trade deadline. Absolutely tore the cover off the ball as a Royal (.244/.306/.289) and told many fantastic stories about how he avoided the Vietnam War.

Jamey Wright: Could not sustain 0.00 ERA through first five minutes as a Royal, in more bad luck. Although quickly earning trusted status in Hillman's bullpen, posted a 4.90 ERA in next 57 games. Appeared in tie games constantly (13). Actually, he just appeared constantly.

Tony Pena Jr: Took epic failure of 2008 to a new level in 2009, posting an incredible .098/.132/.118 line. Played crucial role in delivering the Yuni-Bomb to Kansas City. Amazing shift to a pitching career, a move straight out of a message board if there ever was one, hurts his hate-ability however.

Sidney Ponson: Provided Royals with valuable depth in 2009: you can never have enough bad pitchers. Poison pill contract and fate led to him starting the 2009 Home Opener, the opening of the newly renovated K. Against the Yankees. Surprised fans with better than expected 7.36 ERA.

Horacio Ramirez: Ho-Ram's ex-Brave, ex-Mariner, ex-mildly surprising 2008 move that sorta worked out status, earned him another contract and $1.8 million from Dayton Moore. Sucked from the beginning and was gone by early June. He'll be back.

Astros Winter Meeting Links

davoag — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:58:31 -0000

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I can save how much on car insurance?

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It's looking like the first part of my theory on the Astros bullpen plans are coming to fruition. Jose Valverde can't find a deal, so his best option is accepting arbitration with the Astros. That probably means his salary will fall somewhere around 9 million. Ken Rosenthal is reporting the possible salary number at 10 million, but from looking at the market, that seems high to me. At the same time, Valverde's salary was 8 million last season, so you can guess where it will end up through this negotiation.

Two points to remember: First, Valverde has until midnight Monday to decide whether to accept arbitration. Certainly, his agent has an idea how the market will shape up to this point. The fact that both Billy Wagner AND Takashi Saito both signed before rumors of Valverde have hit the market. Second, even if Valverde accepts arbitration, it doesn't mean he's locked into an arbiter deciding his 2010 salary. Check out AstroAndy's excellent rundown of the process for a refresher.

I say the first part of my theory looks sound but the second part, bringing Hawkins back, looks less likely. Maybe the Astros could have struck quickly and signed Hawkins to a modest deal a couple of weeks ago. Now, the market seems to be heating up for the soon-to-be 37-year old with the Rockies being the latest team to express interest.

Honestly, I'm less afraid of Valverde returning on a one-year deal than of the Astros working out a multi-year deal for him. Sure, it's probably not the best use of resources to lock up a closer for big money with a limited budget. But, what else were they going to spend money on? Ed Wade has made it clear he's not spending on a starter, that third base is pretty set and that he's happy entering the season with Towles, Q and possibly Castro in the catching mix. Bringing back Valverde will not only give the Astros a more solid bullpen, they won't be able to get a player of his talent on a contract that short. This is better news than it seems.

On to more of the weekend's best links:

This news is either depressing or somewhat hopeful, depending on how you look at it. Mier appears to be one of the steals of the 2009 draft. Lyles and Castro are both ahead of schedule. No winning records since 2007, though? Is it really important for minor league affiliates to win games? If the system can churn out one to two prospects a season, isn't that what matters most?
My analytical toolbox has been duly updated. Thanks, Dave Cameron.
Recent injuries have sidelined both Wesley Wright and Brian Bogusevic. Both might have an impact on the 25-man roster next season, so maybe it's time to shut them down until February.
Here's Brian McTaggart's take on the Winter Meetings. Not surprising that the Astros won't be movers and shakers. Richard Justice thinks the Astros woes lately are all because of Baylor. Personally, I'd blame that replay official up in Dallas. That game was clearly over. He owes us a TCU-Alabama national championship.
Worried about Roy Oswalt? Apparently, we shouldn't be. His best buddy, JJO, says he's rested and ready to go. He also is happy with his new pitching coach.
It's a bit of a stretch to think Bryce Harper may fall to No. 8, but man, can this kid play? This is one of the coolest videos I've seen in a while. As athletic as he sounds, maybe he switches to third base? A man can dream, can't he?
More distressing news from the NCAA about the draft process. I know there are some who would like to see an international draft, but honestly, do we need to give more power to organizations like this? After the NCAA settled with Andy Oliver, it seemed clear its intent was to move back to the status quo and that's exactly what they are doing.
A very illuminating profile on Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. All those GMs saying he's the third- or fourth-best pitcher on the free agent market? They probably thought Kyle Farnsworth was also one of the best. I don't know what it is about a lefty with a fastball that makes scouts lose their minds. Doesn't his utter lack of control worry them just as much?
Boy, this Rangers sale is going to be fun to watch. Plus, there is the added intrigue on whether Nolan is sticking around with the team. Obviously, this worries me more than anything else about that debacle, since I like the idea of Round Rock being the Triple-A affiliate. If they leave, would the Astros bring back the Beaumont Golden Gators?

Free Agent Profile: Jose Valverde

davoag — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Valverde found out how much money he could save with Geico...

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I recently read these two posts on Sabernomics by JC Bradbury about free agency. They got me thinking about how the Astros crop of free agents fits into the market, what kinds of deals comparable players got last season and what we could expect the (former) hometown boys to get this winter. Thus, another mini-series of posts on free agency.

[Sidenote 1: It's also worth noting that our first profile, Valverde, plays a position where the number of players doesn't necessarily correspond to openings on teams. Relievers can market themselves as closers without having vacated that position, thus making for a possibly over-glutted market where some guys will have to sign for significantly less as setup men]

Just the other day, I argued that the Astros should not offer Jose Valverde arbitration. My thinking was that Houston would be on the hook for way too much money, since Valverde would most likely accept the arbitration offer to get a big payday (albeit a one-year payday).

This may or may not be a popular opinion around these parts, so I thought we could look at the 2008 offseason to see what kind of contracts closer got. I ran down the biggies, the Type A's and a few other contracts that are similar to Valverde's numbers. For reference, El Papa Grande earned 8 million in 2009 and pitched 54 1/3 innings, striking out 56 and walking 21. Valverde converted 25 of 29 save opportunities and gave up five home runs. FanGraphs puts his value at a solid 3 million.

[Sidenote 2: I am skeptical of how WAR rates relievers, but after combing through some of this data, it looks like it comes close to nailing down closers, at least. Take that for what it's worth in the rest of this article]

The Comparables

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, New York Mets

Contract Details: 3 years, 37 million (2m bonus, 09-8.5m, 10-11.5m, 11, 11.5m, 12-17.5m option)

Notes: K-Rod was not worth his contract last season, earning a value of just 1.5 million. Though relievers are typically devalued in WAR, I found that this wasn't necessarily the case with closers. Plenty of the contemporaries on this list had good, valuable seasons in the past. For instance, K-Rod was worth 17 million from 2007 to 2008. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to get injured. This contract would appear to be the upper range of Valverde's money.

Kerry Wood, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Contract Details: 2 years, 20.5 million (09-10m, 10-10.5m, 11-11m option)

Notes: Wood was worth 1.9 million in 2009 after totaling 10 million in value the previous season. His contract seemed to be in line with that, though his performance didn't suggest it would continue. It should be noted that only one reliever got a three-year deal. The rest had to settle for two-year deals or one-year fliers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Contract Details: 2 years, 17.5 million (09-8.5m, 10-9m, 11-9m option)

Notes: This would appear to be the kind of deal that makes sense for Valverde. Fuentes marked one of the few Type A closers that was both offered arbitration and signed with a team in the offseason. We'll get to a couple other examples in a minute, but for now, let's say Fuentes did much better n 2008 than Valverde did last season, but still couldn't land a deal longer than two years. His almost 9 million average is just above what Valverde earned in 2009, and would certainly be a starting place for any arbitration discussion.

The Other Type A's

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Contract Details: 1 year, 6 million (re-signed for 1 year, 8 million with an '11 option of 7 million)

Notes: Hoffman shows the other side of the coin for Valverde. The Padres did not offer Hoffman arbitration heading into last offseason, meaning a team would not have to give up draft picks to sign him. Despite coming off an injury-plagued season, the Brewers gave Hoffman a 6 million dollar tryout in 2009. The venerable saves champ was worth 6.7 million last season, so he performed to the contract and was rewarded with another one year deal.

Juan Cruz, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.25m, 10-3.25m, 11-4m option)

Notes: Cruz was a surprise sign as a Type A free agent, since he had the heaviest cost, yet wasn't a closer. Of course, he was not good at all in 50 relief innings for the Royals this season, but this is Dayton Moore we're talking about. He'll do anything. As the quirkiest signing of last winter, Cruz fits right in. How much his situation will impact Valverde's is less clear. Cruz wasn't used the same way and didn't have the same relative value. Still, he got a contract in line with many middle relievers that will form the base of the reliever market.

The Outlier

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 9.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.5m, 11-5.25m option)

Notes: What did I say about Moore? He gave a 9.5 million dollar contract to Kyle Farnsworth, he of the ever-straight 150 MPH fastball. Of course, Trey Hillman felt obliged to use him in bizarre situations, confounding guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski. Farnsworth probably earned more money last season than he should have, but he was still worth 3 million, according to FanGraphs. That's also what Valverde was worth, as a point of reference.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Ryan Franklin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6.5 million (signed Sept. 1, 2009)

Notes: Franklin saved 38 games for the Cardinals in 2009, but will be heading into his Age 37 season. The Cardinals wisely locked him up for a reasonable 6.5 million over two seasons. That significantly lowers the salary precedent for a guy like Valverde, though, as his agent will have to work off a contract like Soria's to get comparable numbers.

Heath Bell, RHP, San Diego Padres

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million (2008)

Notes: Bell will be due a big raise in 2010, since he led the NL with 42 saves in 2009. Heading into another year of arbitration, the Padres may decide a closer is not a luxury they're willing to splurge on, making Bell tradeable. I'd expect him to fetch anywhere between 4-6 million in arbitration, so that's the number a team's looking at if they go and get Bell. That also means Bell would be that much cheaper than a guy like Valverde on the open market.

Forecast for Valverde

El Papa Grande is one of nine different pitchers who could market themselves as closers this offseason, including Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyons. Now, most people would argue that Valverde is the best of the crop, but that also carries a price. We can surmise from last year's market that even Valverde will not get more than a three year deal, and that his ceiling is probably around 10 million. Coming off an injury plagued season, though, means his market will be compressed slightly. Add to that the more reasonable deals signed by Joakim Soria (3 years, 8.75 million) and Franklin, and Valverde will be lucky to get 8m per season. In arbitration, though? The Astros risk paying him anywhere from 3 million to 11 million next season if they offer arb. and he accepts. Given that Wade will have around 15-17 million to work with, is it worth eating up that much of the budget for a closer?

My assumption is the Astros will decline to offer him arbitration and he will sign a two year deal for somewhere around 18 million, with a possible third year option for 10 million. I won't guess who'd give him that contract, but looking at both the market and last year's offseason, those numbers seem right.

The Top 5 White Sox Games of 2009

U-God — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:49:39 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

The Savior wonders if his accomplishments will appear in the list of the season's best games. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

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While the White Sox didn't make the playoffs this year (or finish above .500 for that matter), it never really felt like a chore to watch (at least to me) like 2007 did. Once the season ended (and this lull between playoff rounds began), I started thinking about what games were the best ones from this season. Some caveats: I only went with games we won. I personally don't care much for losses and didn't feel like putting any close, but last second losses in my top 5. Also, this is a pretty subjective exercise, so I don't expect everyone to agree with my choices. Feel free to post your choices in the comments. With that being said, the top 5 games from the 2009 season are after the jump.

5. May 25, @LAA SOX: 17, LAA: 3

The main reason this game makes the cut is the 17 runs were the most the Sox had scored in a game since June 20, 2006. Every starter had a hit, with the Thome, Konerko, and Dye all going yard. The team scored 14 runs through the first five innings, and were only blanked in the sixth and the eighth. The only reason it isn't ranked higher is the game was over by the second inning.

4. April 7, vs. KC SOX: 4, KC:2

Ah, Opening Day. The holiest of all national holidays. We had to wait longer than usual due to a snowout, but the payoff was well worth it. Things looked pretty grim going into the eighth inning, when the worst manager in the AL Central brought in the beloved Kyle Farnsworth. Every now and then, you feel like the baseball game is scripted. When Jim Thome stepped up with two runners on and two outs, it felt like everyone watching knew what would happen next. The season had so much promise back then.

3. April 13, @ DET SOX: 10, DET: 6

While the game itself was fairly unspectacular, the second inning alone insured that it would appear on this list. Leading off, Jermaine Dye would take Zach Miner deep to left-center at 12:23 P.M. for his 300th career homerun. Exactly three minutes later, Paul Konerko would blast one past the left field fence for his 300th as well. This marked the first time in MLB history that two teammates had hit century milestone homeruns back to back. The White Sox even had 7,000 little commemerative figures with a base made to honor the accomplishment (number 4,036 sits proudly on my desk). A normal enough game, but the history makes it pretty special in my eyes.

2. June 27, vs. CHC SOX: 8, CHC: 7

The complete opposite of a pitcher's duel, but an incredibly fun back-and-forth battle throughout gets this game the number two spot on the list. The lead changed hands four times before the Pale Hose tied it up in the eighth on an Alexei Ramirez single. I still remember sitting in left field with my current roommate Dan and wanting the game to come down to Gordon Beckham. Whatever deities may be decided to answer my prayers. With Josh Fields on second and Jayson Nix on first, Gordon Beckham stepped in with two outs. Jose Ascanio's first pitch the the rookie would be crushed into the rightfield gap for our young savior's first walk off hit in the bigs. There was something magical about hearing "Your Love" played before any other victory song.

1. July 23, vs. TB SOX: 5, TB: 0

Was there ever any doubt what game was going to get number one? There have been better articles written than I could ever hope to create. Everything from Fields' grand slam to Wise's miracle catch was fantastic. Even typing this just give me chills. So I'll stop writing about it. Pictures do more justice than I ever could.

Get Those Extra Checks Ready for Miguel Olivo, Willie Bloomquist, and Jamey Wright Please

royalsreview — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:15:09 -0000

Earlier this season we touched on Dayton Moore's odd proclivity for the playing time bonus. Dating back to the Ross Gload extension, the Royals have included a number of playing time escalators in contracts. Like anything else in a contract, these bonuses can be used in a variety of ways, for the benefit or protection of either party.

Three curious things jump out about Dayton's recent use of the tool: 1) they have been given to players who are seemingly already being overpaid, 2) the Royals have used extremely modest dollar amounts for their bonuses, yet also made them incredibly easy to reach and 3) the Royals have given playing time bonuses to players who had in the past not been full-time players, but who were quickly then made full-timers on the Royals (great negotiating!).

In 2009, Miguel Olivo, St. Willie Bloomquist and a number of pitchers each had playing-time bonuses on the table. Let's see how they did.

Miguel Olivo: 114 games played, 416 plate appearances

Here are Olivo's bonuses (reached bonuses in bold), in all their nickel-and-dimer glory:

performance bonuses based on games, plate appearances:

$25,000 each for 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100 games

$50,000 each for 105, 110, 115, 120 games

$25,000 each for 275, 300, 325, 350, 375, 400 PAs

$50,000 each for 425, 450, 475, 500 PAs

By sitting Olivo on the last day of the season, Trey Hillman saved his bosses $50,000, as Olivo was set to hit another bonus by playing his 115th game. All told, Olivo earned an extra $400,000 in playing time bonuses in 2009, in addition to his $2.7 million base salary, for a total of $3.1 million.

Willie Bloomquist: 125 games played, 468 plate appearances

Thanks to being employed by one of the dumbest management teams in the game, Willie Bloomquist set career playing time highs in 2009, by wide margins. Prior to 2009, his career high in games played was 102 games in 2006, and in 32 of those games he was a late-game sub. The 468 plate appearances in 2009 is more than he got in his final two seasons in Seattle combined (380), where he was also loved by everyone and valued for doing whatever it is that he does. Again, the Royals gave a guy with a .663 OPS 468 PAs this season. Blame Alex Gordon.

performance bonuses:

$50,000 each for 70 games or 280 PAs, 80 g or 320 PAs, 90 g or 360 PAs, 100 g or 400 PAs

$0.1M each for 110 g or 440 PAs, 120 g or 480 PAs, 130 g or 520 PAs, 140 g or 560 PA

Willie's contract is a little more standard, in that the games played and plate appearance bonuses are tied to one another, given that they are reflective of the same thing most of the time. The Sainted One hit all four of his $50,000 bonuses and two of his $100,000 bonuses, for a total of $400,000 extra in bonuses. Bloomquist's base salary in 2009 was $1.4 million, giving him a total payday of $1.8 million. In addition to the biggest contract of his career, Dayton Moore signed him to a deal which would allow him to add 25-35% (roughly) to his payday simply by showing up.

John Bale: 43 total points

Bale's contract for 2009 is interesting in that it uses a points system based on how he is used. (Bonuses met in bold)

performance bonuses based on points (2 points for a start, 1.5 points for 2-inning appearance, 1 point forappearance of less than 2 innings):

$25,000 each for 34, 36, 38 points

$50,000 each for 40, 42, 44 points

$75,000 each for 46, 48, 50 points

$0.1M each for 52, 54, 56 points

$0.125M each for 58, 60 points

By my count, Bale appeared in 43 games, and they were all non-starts, and all under 2.0 innings, leaving him at 43 points. Actually an impressive total for a guy who seemingly was injured and ineffective all season. The Royals bullpen, we're all in this together! If we all suck, we can all still play. Bale snagged an extra $175,000 dollars to go along with his base salary of $1.2 million.

Kyle Farnsworth: 18 games finished

Farnsworth's contract uses "games finished" as a bonus trigger, which could either mean "I got the closer role" or "I was good enough to sub for Soria sometimes" or even "I was bad but got mopup duty". Farnsworth somehow finished 18 games for the Royals, which amazes me.

performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 games finished; $0.1M for 45 GF; $0.15M for 50 GF; $0.25M for 55 GF

Still, no bonuses for Farnsy.

Jamey Wright: 0 starts, 65 appearances

Wright was supposed to be one of Moore's bargain signings this season, brought in for a minor league contract. Thanks to his near-constant use however, Wright did alright for himself.

performance bonuses:

starts: $50,000 for 5 GS; $0.1M each for 10, 15 GS; $0.15M for 20 GS

relief appearances: $50,000 each for 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 games; $0.1M each for 50, 55, 60 games

Wright was signed to a minor league contract, but he would have made the prorated minimum while in the Majors, and could have had extras thrown in as well. Cot's lists him as earning $800,000 in base salary in 2009. Thanks to his 65 appearances, he also earned an additional $600,000 in bonuses. Wright owes Trey Hillman a nice dinner.

Yabuta and Waechter had a number of bonuses, but reached none of them. Thankfully, in Yabuta's case. Yabuta appeared in only 43 games as a Royal in 2008-9. Did you know that if he had appeared in 155 games total over those years, he would have vested a player option for 2010?

When you look at these bonuses, the ones for the pitchers make much more sense, from the club's standpoint: if you make this team, Jamey Wright, and if you're healthy and good all season, Kyle Farnsworth, you'll make even more money for us. Maybe that gets them in the door for a little less money guaranteed, which would in theory be good, if we were talking about good players.

The Bloomquist and Olivo bonuses make less sense to me. Not surprisingly, Olivo was unhappy with a lack of playing time in 2008, and seemed to have an idea that he was "brought here to be a starter". Hmm... where'd that problem come from? Meanwhile, the extra Bloomquist money just adds less value to an already bad contract. When you include reasonable playing time bonuses, the Royals didn't sign him to a 2 year/$3.1 million dollar deal, they signed him to a 2 year/$4.1 million dollar deal.

Figures like these need to be kept in mind when discussing the Royals payroll. Are these contracts creative ways of staying under some set in stone budget number? There's no way of knowing. Reported figures for the Royals payroll tend to be all over the place. Sometimes the Royals want to stress how large it is, sometimes they want to point out how small.

Contracts like these are common in today's game, just not necessarily for position players with little injury history like Bloomquist and Olivo. Two is a coincidence and, with the Ross Gload contract, three is a trend. Maybe Moore just likes making these kind of deals. Maybe ownership wants a little injury insurance. Maybe it is a motivational tool for the player. Who knows? There are benefits to lots of small bonuses (like the Olivo contract) and there are benefits to ones which aren't reached until some large playing time number is hit, as in the Yabuta contract. Did Olivo know that Hillman's decision to play Pena and Buck on the final day of the season cost him $50,000? Did he care? Should he care? I don't know the answer to those questions. Yes, $50,000 is much less relevant to these guys than it is to most of us, but then again, Miguel Olivo also has many more expenses, taxes, etc. than most of us as well. He has had to move across the country like six or seven times during his career. He's got bills, he's got things he wants. If a guy I didn't really respect cost me $500 dollars (in my mind) I'd be really unhappy about it. I bet you'd feel the same way.

This is all just to say, there's quite a lot going on here. Since we aren't privy to these contract negotiations, and know nothing about anyone involved beyond their baseball stuff, we're left to guess. What do you guess?

Game 141: Royals 2, Indians 1

afh4 — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 02:49:25 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

"Flo" from Progressive threw out the first pitch.

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Justin Masterson pitched in and out of trouble all night, inducing two double plays when his back was against the wall Despite his four walks, Masterson held the Royals to just one run over 6. Zack Greinke was his usual magical self through seven innings but Trey Hillman pulled him at just 102 pitches and one earned run; Greinke's last start was a 120+ pitch performance against the Angels. Tony Sipp and Chris Perez were brilliant through 3 innings of relief.

The Royals bullpen is truly atrocious and Hillman handed the ball to Kyle Farnsworth and his 5.00+ ERA for the final two innings. He worked a clean slate in the eigth but then characteristically started to come unglued in the ninth. After putting two on, he gave up a single to Jhonny Peralta; Skinner flashed back to games that mattered and sent Cabrera home despite it being a short single into LF, where David DeJesus and his strong arm waited. Cabrerea was cut down at the plate meaning Travis Hafner would have to get a hit for the Indians to win the game in regulation. Hafner waved at strike three and the game went to extras.

Going with Perez in the top of the ninth was, if I'm not mistaken, against the book, in that the closer is expected in the top of the ninth in the tie game of a home game. When Wedge stuck with Perez for the tenth, it was an unusual, though certainly not indefensible decision. I'm not much for this whole line of speculation but if you're looking for the "denying Wood games to finish" evidence, this is about as close as we've gotten. Chris made it a tactical moot point by plowing through the Royals for a second straight inning to make a final line of 2.0 IP, 1 BB and 3K. Since joining the Indians, Perez (Mercedes?) has 32 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. These are essentially the same strikeout numbers as in St. Louis; the difference is that Perez has halved his walks.

The Royals turned to Jamey Wright to try to hold the Indians at bay in the tenth. If it seems like I'm foreshadowing that Wright would lose the game, that's because I was writing this along with the game, waiting to go for dinner, and I was hoping that was the case. It wasn't, and Valbuena-LaPorta-Marte went 1-2-3 against the suddenly indomitable Jamey Wright. In the top of the eleventh, Wedge again stayed away from Wood and went with Jose Veras, who somehow worked a scoreless inning.

Frankly, I lost interest in this an hour ago. I mean, seriously who's watching this? Sigh. Come on. Somebody hit a home run. Who's coming up? Marson, Brantley, and Cabrera. Who's my best shot there? I told these people I'd meet them for dinner an hour ago. Alright, Brantley took a walk. Come on. Just hit a double or something, Astro. It's still Jamey Wright on the mound. How is this still going on?

In the eleventh, Asdrubal grounded out to move Brantley to second; after an intentional walk to Choo, Peralta stepped in and singled to left! JP singled! And...Brantley was out at home on the throw from DeJesus. That's twice, Skinner.

Top 12. Still Veras (seriously, what?). Homerun Miguel Olivo. Well, alright.

So, that's it. Miguel Olivo took Jose Veras yard in the top of the 12th and the Indians lost. What has happened to us?

News Roundup: Reds Sweep Doubleheader, Ruin Daniel McCutchen's Good Debut

Charlie — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 02:29:51 -0000

More photos » by David Kohl - AP

3 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Darnell McDonald, left, slides across home plate with the winning run after a wild pitch from Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Jesse Chavez, covering home at right, in the bottom of ninth inning of Game 1 of a baseball doubleheader, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009, in Cincinnati. The Reds won 4-3. (AP Photo/David Kohl)

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The Associated Press: Reds beat Pirates 4-3 before empty seats
There were less than 2,000 people in attendance for the day game today. Which is too bad, and it's also too bad about the way the Pirates lost it, because Dan McCutchen was actually pretty good, grabbing a quality start and five strikeouts while only walking two batters. Joel Hanrahan struck out four batters, too.

Except for a big homer by Andrew McCutchen, and some shut-down relief from Denny Bautista, the second game of the doubleheader today was downright forgettable, unless you're Jesse Chavez. (Who, uh, also won't be forgetting the first game.) So let's move on. But before we do, I want to good-naturedly suggest that we nickname Dan McCutchen "No Relation."

Moore will be extended through 2014 - Royals Review
This post from Royals Review about the ludicrous four-year extension Kansas City GM Dayton Moore just received reminds me of some of the unfortunate apologies for Dave Littlefield people stopped posting on the internet in, oh, about 2005.

Moore looked like a good GM in his first year or so when he was mostly just cleaning up the previous management's trash, but the decisions he's made at the big-league level since then have been terrible by the standards of today's GMs, who tend not to be idiots. When a GM sets money on fire the way Moore has with Jose Guillen, Yuniesky Betancourt, Mike Jacobs, Kyle Farnsworth, Willie Bloomquist and others the way Moore has, he deserves to be fired. When someone who spends as much on veteran players as Moore did this offseason and still finishes the season 30 games below .500, he deserves to be fired. And Royals fans who settle for 28th best or 30th best or whatever Moore is isn't aren't doing themselves or the team any favors.

It's true that Moore is doing a much better job than Littlefield at building through the farm system, but there's no reason to have any confidence Moore will be able to put together a good team even if he graduates a bunch of solid players from the minors.

I don't mean to pick on the blogger who posted this. It's hard to know how to respond to a tough situation. We've all been there. And the comment thread is hilarious.

Minor League Baseball: GCL Blue Jays 2, GCL Pirates 1
The Bradenton Pirates finished their season today. It was a decent season overall, I suppose. The hitters generally didn't fare that well, but most of them were very young, and outfielder Rogelios Noris and catcher Ramon Cabrera showed promise. Also, the GCL tends not to produce impressive-looking offensive performances. The Pirates' pitching, led by Trent Stevenson, Brooks Pounders, Jhonathan Ramos and Zac Fuesser, was very good, and I look forward to seeing some of these guys in full-season ball next year.

Also, 2009 bonus baby Zach Von Rosenberg made his pro debut today. He faced six batters, struck out two, got groundouts from three, and got one to pop up to the catcher. Not bad at all.

Yanks tee off then shut down, let up then sweep out in 6-4 Win

CrazyYankeeChick — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 21:20:28 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

New York Yankees' Brian Bruney needs more than a 5-run cushion to work out the kinks in his game...

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I always am grateful for the Monday morning crosswords; it’s like the newspapers know that the first day back from the weekend is going to be hard enough without having to labor through a 13-letter word that so far has _ _N_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _E filled in. Which is too much of a challenge that close to the weekend…And I guess the same merciful mastermind behind this practice also was the point person on the Yankees post-ASB scheduling committee.

But while the tic-tac sized "2-1 Final" games of the weekend may be have been the Tuesday puzzle, today’s afternoon game was a little less manageable.

Facing the worst pitcher of the worst team, the Yankees should have known that this Orioles match could be too good to be true, especially after jumping to a 4-run lead in the first.

Such an effortlessly dominant burst that it could have easily doubled as the opening scene of pretty much any underdog baseball flick when it looks like the juggernaut'll crush 'em from the get-go...

But it wasn't that cookie cutter, after all. Jason Berken at first lived up to his anti-hype, as Alex Rodriguez (surprise) tacked up NY's first ribbie with a single that brought in Derek Jeter. (ARod is definitely just loaded for bear in his campaign to not only collect ribbies, but to make sure they’re >2 run differential ribbies at all times.)

Then one by one the lineup teed off on the hapless Baltimore defense. The Yankees have been steadily metamorphosizing into this army of hybrid sluggers/lead-off men. Their role players no longer are so strictly delineated, like the Juan Pierre's and Justin Morneau's and Albert Pujols’ of the league. Instead, we see our bottom of the order completely dissolve the pitcher’s awareness of where exactly he is in respect to the lineup.

After ARod started them off, Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher throw their hats in the ring, with back-to-back singles that lassoed in Mark Teixeira, Hideki Matsui, and Jorge Posada.

A.J. saunters into the second inning and pitches like a pitcher who knows he needs only not spontaneously combust to score the W. He took the shutout into the seventh, whiffing 6, walking only 3, while donating 6 hits to the Os' cause.

After Posada did his best 2007 ARod impression with a solo in the 4th, the Yankees just sort of stuttered around in the batter’s box. One go-thru of the order and all of a sudden Berken throws down the gauntlet like he’s freaking Woody Harrelson in White Men Can’t Jump and cuts through the Yanks like a hustling pro. (That may be a little bit of an exaggeration, since he actually only struck out 1. Even 1 seemed a lot considering he had a pitching arsenal about as stocked as a 22-year-old's fridge.)

As for the Baltimore offense, the charge was led by the guy whose "6Ks and .143 against AJ!" stigma was all but shackled to his cleats at the start of the game: Adam Jones then went 4 for 5, which included a 9th inning solo that made things realllly uncomfortable for Yankee fans. Ditto for Nick Markakis, whose HR immediately following Jones’ prompted Girardi to abandon the Brian Bruney Not-For-Profit program he initiated in the 9th.

In fairness to Joe, the Yanks had 5 on the board, and barring a Tanyon Sturtze/Kyle Farnsworth meltdown, it’s a safe bet that Bruney can act like he isn't an infant discovering his hand for the first time. Instead, Girardi took no chances and brought in Mariano Rivera for about the 87th game in a row (2 consecutive, 5 of 6 post-ASB games) to put out the fire and hand the Yanks’ their 6th straight win.

Girardi played this excellently. Initially it appeared to be a case similar to my dad finding a shirt that fits him and then proceeding to buy 2 dozen boxes of identical shirts, ie Girardi discovering the bullpen formula and deciding to purchase 2 dozen innings just like it. BUT, it works when AJ can go 7 and Hughes and Mo only need to split the other remaining ones. Two straight sweeps for the Yanks, as they usher the A’s into the Bronx, and pit belated birthday boy CC Sabathia against Vin Mazzaro.

The Yankees look better than they’ve looked all year, which includes that explosive streak they tore open in May. Right now they’re capitalizing on assets and doing what needs to be done to find an edge. That’s more valuable to me than a Mardi Gras fireworks display of slugging.

Tomorrow we'll see them fill in another couple of letters in a 13-letter word they've already got a bead on: CONVALESCENCE.

Dayton Moore and Omar Minaya Must Love Bloggers: Winners and Losers in the Francoeur, Church, and Betancourt Trades (No, Seriously)

devil_fingers — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 05:57:24 -0000

[This is my "objective" analysis... more "subjective" reflections on the Royals side of things will come later and elsewhere... UPDATE: "Subjective" reflections can be found here.]

Seriously, Kyle must be paying off Dayton Moore to keep making teh awesome tradez so that I'll exceed my post quota every week. Make no mistake: this was a big day for Dayton, or, as he is known to the Royals' faithful, "DMGM." Not only did he finally acquire the long-desired (can't find the original Sam Mellinger article any more) Yuniesky Betancourt, but he also failed to acquire the man whom he once called "one of the greatest competitors I've ever known," Jeff Francoeur. Fittingly, Frenchy was acquired today by Dayton Moore's Dominican Doppleganger for Ryan Church. Sigh... I wonder who won these trades?

Francoeur to the Mets, Ryan Church to the Braves

Jeff Francoeur

#0 / Right Field / New York Mets

Height: 6-4

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1984

Francoeur is getting paid $3.375M this season in his first year of arbitration. Assuming $4.5M for each Win Above Replacement, we take $0.4M off for the replacement salary, and assume he's getting 40% of his value. so 3.375-0.4 = 2.75/.40 = $6.875 market value for the deal. So Francoeur is being paid like a 1.5 WAR player. Sure, he's having a dreadful season so far (-13.4 offense, 0.6 defense, -0.6 WAR at FanGraphs), but we to estimate true talent going forward.

Transactions are only going to get more frequent, so I'm going to just use the ZiPS in-season projection tool for offense this time out. Francoeur is having another of his classic seasons at the plate.

A timeless classic.

Batting: ZiPS Rest-of-Season projection has him hitting .259/.307/.381 for a .304 wOBA. That's about 14 runs below average ( -14).

Fielding is trickier to measure and predict. Francoeur's reputation and numbers were great when he came into the league, but he's really dropped off in UZR. His UZR prorated for 150 games (UZR/150) over the last four seasons: 2006: +7.5, 2007, 16.9, 2008 -4.9, 2009 -1.5. A weighted average and crude regression gives me an estimate of +3 per 150 games. Sean Smith's pre-season projection for TotalZone was +2. Pretty close. Over a full season, let's call it +3.

Value: -14 Offense + 3 defense -7.5 positional adjustment + 20 NL replacement = +1.5 runs above replacement * 85% playing time = about a 0.1 WAR player.

So... The Mets are getting about a $500,000 player on a contract for this year that's worth just under $7M. Ryan Church must really be bad and/or be on a terrible contract, right?

Ryan Church

#0 / Right Field / Atlanta Braves

Height: 6-1

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Oct 14, 1978

Church is in his second year of arbitration and is getting paid $2.8M. Same formula as above (with 60% for the second year of arbitration). 2.8-0.4 = 2.4/.60= $4M. That's less than 1 WAR, so Church is getting paid like a bench or platoon guy.

Batting: Church has had a rough start to the season, hitting 280/.332/.375 for a .310 wOBA. But, again, we need to take context into account, past performance, etc. ZiPS projects his real talent at .344 wOBA (.273/.346/.433), or about +10 over 700 PAs.

Fielding: Church played some CF a couple years back, but is mostly a corner outfielder now. A weighted and regressed average of his UZR/150 numbers gives us +3, and Rally has him projected at +4 TotalZone. Let's call it +4/162 games.

Value: +10 offense +4 hitting -7.5 position + 20 NL replacement = 26.5 x 75% playing time (because of age and past injuries, that's all we should really expect) = 1.9 WAR player. Wow... getting paid like a 4th OF and he's about a league average player.

I guess Omar Minaya and his scouts saw something in Francoeur. Sure, Church is older... But Francoeur isn't 21 anymore. He's not at the usual peak, but he's replacement-level now, I'm going to guess and say he has about a 5% chance of becoming as good as Church in the next couple of seasons, even though he's being paid more right now (RBI!). It's not like the Mets have a young core they are stacking up for a future run at contention. What am I missing Mets fans? This just a terrible trade for the Mets. Probably even a bit worse than...

Yuniesky Betancourt to the Royals, Dan Cortes and Derrick Saito to the Mariners

Let's get this over with.

Yuniesky Betancourt

#0 / Short Stop / Kansas City Royals

Height: 5-10

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 31, 1982

The contract stuff is a bit complicated. According to Cot's (already updated!), Betancourt has the rest of this season (so about $1M of $2M) left, then is owed $3M in 2010, $4M in 2011, with a club option for $6M in 2012 with a $2M buyout. The Mariners are picking up about $2M along the way... without adjusting for inflation, that's the buyout. So as far as guaranteed money goes, the Royals are giving Betancourt $8M over the next three years guaranteed, or about $7M over replacement. He's already 27 (and I' sure we can trust his Cuban birth records, right?), and, as we'll see, he's not exactly at a stage where we can't expect him to decline already. I'd say he needs to be a 1.0 WAR player right now for the Royals to have this pay off... .and that's not counting the prospects.

I can tell you that pitching against him — he’s not an easy guy to pitch to. He’s got some pop.

--Gil Meche

Batting: He's smoking the ball to the tune of .250/.278/.330 so far, with a .270 wOBA. But, hey, that only tells us what he has already done. ZiPS says his true talent is .273/.293/.373 for a whopping .291 wOBA, which is about 22 runs below average in the current run-scoring environment.

Fielding: Betancourt has or had a stellar defensive reputation, but UZR/150 numbers show that he was more of an average defender may be morphing into a horrible, Michael Young-esque shortstop, a +2.1 in 2006, +0.7 2006, -1.4 in 2007, -12.7 in 2008, and a -18.0 2009. But with regression and weighting, he comes out to about -5, and TotalZone has him as average (!), although that's before the season started. Let's call it -3, which may be generous, but we're sticking with the numbers here.

Value:-22 batting - 3 defense +7.5 position +25 AL replacement level= 7.5 x 855 playing time = 0.6 WAR player.

He’s very, very talented to the point where — and I’ve told him this — he could be the best defensive shortstop in the game hands down.

-- Willie Bloomquist on Betancourt

So, even assuming that he will regress heavily towards the mean (a reasonable assumption), this is a bad deal for the Royals straight up, even if they didn't give up anything. But they did -- they gave up at least a fair pitching prospect in Dan Cortes, and a lower-level one in Derrick Saito. The Willie Bloomquist signing was bad enough, but this is just as bad. No, it's worse. The best part is that the Royals have yet another ex-Mariner, Tug Hulett, who isn't good, but is at Omaha right now and is probably at least as good as either of them, and at the league minimum. All things considered, this makes the Mike Jacobs trade look pretty good in comparison. 'Nuff said.

In the comments regarding Dan Szymborski's suggestion that Billy Beane's time in Oakland, things got briefly sidetracked onto Kansas City Royals' GM Dayton Moore. One commentator asked me why I thought Dayton Moore wasn't a very good GM... I gave the usual reasons... Jose Guillen, Mike Jacobs, Kyle Farnsworth, Horacio Ramirez, Ross Gload, Willie Bloomquist... but I needed haven't, for the very next day, Mr. Moore obliged with a demonstration more powerful than any words I could string together. He's doing a heckuva job.

EDIT: devil_fingers was so mad that he made about 12 glaring typos. I fixed them so his anger would come through more clearly. SERENITY NOW!

Edit 2: d_f here. Found even more. I'm on little sleep. Bedtime. After I rant some more.

Edit 3: vivaelpujols here: I like cheese.

Braves Link Roundup: Looking for a Leader; Looking for Hitting; Missing Smoltz

gondeee — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 13:16:00 -0000

First off for this mid-week link roundup, we take a swing at an old Braves player and an unfortunate (albeit funny) episode:

Kansas City Royals right-handed reliever Kyle Farnsworth had his left index finger bandaged Tuesday after being bitten by one of his two bulldogs.

Farnsworth received four stitches from the bite after breaking up a fight between the two bulldogs on Tuesday morning.

Ahh, the Farns. I liked him when he was here, but didn't respect him when he left to not be a closer. Of course, maybe he knew that he wasn't the bulldog everyone thought he was (ha!).

Leadership lacking in Braves' clubhouse
Writing for the Macon Telegraph, Bill Shanks actually pens an interesting and insightful article. He contends that the Braves lack of confidence on the field is reflected by their lack of leadership in the clubhouse:

For years, Julio Franco was that enforcer in the Braves’ clubhouse. If a young player, more than half his age usually, did something that was not liked by the veteran, Franco stepped in and fixed it. He would put his arm around the player, or maybe even just raise his head and glare. Franco was an enforcer.

That’s not Chipper Jones. That’s just not him. And that’s fine. But it does not change the fact this team needs that type of clubhouse presence. It needs someone who when Escobar got benched Sunday, he had a veteran player sitting right there next to him telling him what he did wrong. Instead, Escobar was sitting by himself.

Never underestimate the importance of veteran leaders in a clubhouse. That article is definitely worth a read.

Local baseball prospects show off for Braves
Former Braves player, and current Braves scout Kevin Barry, was in Danbury, Connecticut, to watch some 42 prospects try out for a chance at a minor league deal. It's an interesting article about guys that didn't get drafted, but still have a dream to play pro baseball.

Terry Pendleton and the Braves offense
Bigjoe continues his eager blogging at Braves Heart, and sets out to dispel the notion that Terry Pendleton is the cause of the Braves' offensive woes... and he uses Excel to do it.

Most of the numbers have been dropping off over the past 2 or 3 years, due to the sale of the Braves to Liberty Media and the refusal to add any significant payroll. Pendleton doesn’t have a lot to work with in Atlanta anymore. The days of him getting awesome career years out of players like JD Drew and Gary Sheffield are over, and instead of being able to augment great talent like that, Pendleton is instead forced to try to coax miracles out of players who are not very good.

Smoltz won't start against the Braves, and I am ... not sad
One of the last good sports journalists at the AJC, Mark Bradley, is happy that John Smoltz will not be facing the Braves next week.

I’d borne my burden in silence for a dozen years, but two weeks ago I was moved to confess: I don’t much like Smoltz, and he really doesn’t like me.

That's all for now.