SB Nation - Carl Pavano

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:32:02 -0000

Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>

With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34	2.87	-0.39
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06	3.05	-0.26
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33	3.15	-0.99
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11	3.36	-0.73

Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	0.335	66.10%	5.1	4	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.93	1.56	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	1.12	1.29	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.72	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.91	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.87	1.39	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.71	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.88	1.51	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.39	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.74	1.52	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.06	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	1.03	1.28	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.69	3.61	0.45

You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.

Poll

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

Looking Forward: Projecting the 2010 Twins

Adam Peterson — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:00:28 -0000

As the rumor mills fly, optimism abounds for the upcoming 2010 season. Just how good are the Twins going to be in 2010? What are the biggest holes that need to be filled during the off season? And just as importantly, how can we assess the effect that potential moves could have to improve the ball club? Many of you have probably heard of using "Wins Above Replacement", or "WAR" as a method to evaluate a player's total value to a team, compared to a "replacement" player, one who is freely available at no cost from AAA, in season free agents, etc. For the last couple of years, the website Beyond the Boxscore, and more recently on a Twinkie Town Fan Post by Jon Kammerer, fans have compiled a list of player by player WAR projections to project an estimated number of wins for entire teams, divisions and leagues.

I've done similar projections for the Twins the last few years, with varying levels of success. This year, I'm taking my projections in a different direction. Starting with actual 2009 statistics as a baseline, can I track the Twins' WAR projections as moves are made throughout the off season? This article gives us a start for a move-by-move assessment leading up to opening day. First things first, where do I put the Twins as of today? Bottom line, I project the Twins at 84-85 wins as the team is currently constructed. I've posted the full WAR spreadsheet on Google Docs here. I'm sure many of you will immediately be up in arms at a projection of a 2 win drop-off compared to 2009, a full three wins below Jon's analysis. I'll get into much more detail after the jump, but before we get there, let's take a deeper look at the three 2010 projections I've done to date compared to the 2009 data.

Date	C	1B	2B	3B	SS	LF	CF	RF	DH	SP	RP	Hit	Pitch	WAR	Wins	Notes
2009 Season	7.2	3.2	(1.3)	1.4	0.8	0.9	1.9	2.2	3.1	12.6	5.1	19.4	17.6	37.1	82.1	Actual 2009 season data
01 Nov 2009	6.1	3.1	0.6	0.4	1.4	1.1	2.4	2.1	2.2	12.5	5.3	19.5	17.8	37.3	82.3	End of season. No free agents
06 Nov 2009	6.1	2.9	1.2	0.6	2.9	0.3	2.7	1.7	2.3	12.5	5.3	20.7	17.8	38.5	83.5	Hardy-Gomez, Buscher
10 Dec 2009	6.1	2.9	1.2	0.6	2.9	0.3	2.7	1.7	2.3	13.5	5.4	20.7	18.8	39.5	84.5	Pavano, Bonser

How do I get to my projections for each player? I don't use any single projection system out there, but I don't use my own home-grown system either. Since some projections are more conservative than others (for example, Bill James' is notoriously optimistic), I put a number of systems, including Bill James and CHONE, side by side along with the previous three years data and eyeball wOBA and FIP performance for a given player. I put a lot more thought into how I assign plate appearances and innings pitched for each player on the team. You probably notice that most of my PA/IP projections appear a bit low. This allows me to account for risk of injuries, as well as assess a team's depth in the projections. Projecting every position player and member of the starting rotation to play a full season will over-project by quite a bit.

What have I found so far? First of all, I was very surprised that plugging in the final 2009 season statistics into the WAR projection spreadsheets came out at 82.1 wins, five fewer than the Twins actually won (87), and around four fewer than the Twins Pythagorean win total (86.6). Does this mean the WAR projection system is fundamentally flawed when applying to entire teams? I don't think so. I've written on a number of occasions about how the Twins do the "little things" that don't appear in the box score (or wOBA or FIP), but help a team score or prevent runs. I suspect that this explains most of the five run difference and a little luck explains the rest.

Step by step this off season, how has the team improved? Surprisingly, the moment the season ended, my projections actually jumped slightly from 82.1 to 82.3 wins. How could this be, considering that free agents Carl Pavano, Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrera and Ron Mahay were no longer on the roster? Looking at the table above, other than projected declines at catcher (-1.1) third base (-1.0) and DH (-0.9), other positions offset. Middle infield, in particular (+2.5) projected an improvement, primarily due to last season's second basemen (1.3 runs below replacement) being historically bad, and expecting some improvement from a Casilla-Punto-Tolbert-Tolleson combination.

Looking at the moves so far this off season in two chunks, by my projections the Twins have improved themselves by about two wins trading for Hardy and reinstating Pavano. As expected, the Hardy trade improved SS (+1.5) and 2B (+0.6, Punto being a better 2B option than Casilla). These gains were offset by a large loss in LF(-0.8, due to Delmon Young playing pretty much full time). In the end, just over a one win improvement due to the trade. Pavano accepting arbitration also improved the Twins by around one win by setting the #4 spot in the rotation. I only project 140 innings from Pavano, so while one marginal win may not be "worth" the presumed $6-7M he'll get in arbitration, those innings replace 140 innings from Swarzak, Manship and Perkins, which is an improvement over the above replacement value the others would have provided.

Looking forward, I'll continue to update this spreadsheet as the Twins make moves and roster spots are set leading up to opening day. According to the projections, the Twins biggest holes are in LF (Delmon Young slightly above replacement), 3B (Harris-Tolbert is not very good, and I don't project much from Valencia - although he projects better than Harris or Tolbert), and 2B (Punto). Same as the Twinkie Town consensus. In the meantime, I look forward to your comments. Where am I terribly wrong with the projections? What would you do to improve the ball club, and how much effect would it have?

Worst New York Yankees of the Decade

Ed Valentine — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:00:17 -0000

We had some fun the other day debating the Pinstripe Alley Yankee Team of the Decade. Good points were raised on several controversial choices.

Along the way, some of you asked for the 'Worst Yankees of the Decade' team. I thought that would be fun, so I decided to take a shot at it.

Looking at the rosters over the years, though, I found it almost impossible to narrow it down to a single team. Instead, position-by-position, here are some of the most forgettable -- and regrettable -- Yankees of the past decade.

I am sure there are many other names that could or should be added to this list. But, this should get you started strolling down the wrong side of Yankee Memory Lane.

C -- Alberto Castillo, Chris Turner, Chris Widger, Todd Greene, Joe Oliver, Bobby Estelalla, Wil Nieves, Sal Fasano, Michel Hernandez,

1B -- Travis Lee (.105 in 7 games)

2B -- Tony Womack

SS -- Erick Almonte,

3B -- Wilson Betemit, Drew Henson,

INF -- Alex Arias, Felix Escalona (.000, 5 games in 2004), Mark Bellhorn (.118, 9 games, 2005), Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa, Morgan Ensberg

OF -- Kenny Lofton, Matt Lawton (.125, 21 games, 2005), Mike Vento, Justin Christian,

DH -- Jose Canseco

SP -- Kevin Brown, Tim Redding (54.00 ERA in 1 game, 2005), Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa, Jaret Wright (Carl Pavano BEFORE Pavano), Christian Parker (one 2001 start, got hurt, never pitched again), Jeff Weaver, Darrell May, Sidney Ponson (multiple times),

RP -- Alex Graman (19.80 in 3 games, 2004) & 13.50 in 2 games, 2005), Colter Bean, Bret Prinz, Sean Henn, Gabe White, Billy Traber, Anthony Claggett (33.75 ERA in 2 games).

I am ashamed to admit so many guys like this have worn the pinstripes during the course of the last decade. Yuck!

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:51:04 -0000

by Keith Birmingham - AP

Another day, another picture of Randy Wolf.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while making your pitch to Gatorade.

It's been roughly 24 hours since we were told the Brewers were "very close" to a deal with Randy Wolf, but said deal has yet to materialize. Both Tom H. and Buster Olney are saying the Brewers are expecting a response today, now that Arn Tellem has had a day to shop the offer around, but reportedly hasn't found anyone willing to match it. Other notes on Wolf:

Tom H. says he "gets the feeling that the Brewers are suprised that Randy Wolf hasn't accepted their three-year offer yet."
Jayson Stark heard that the Brewers' offer to Wolf was bigger than the three year, $28 million deal the Braves recently gave Tim Hudson.
Jon Heyman tweeted that the Mets don't appear likely to land Wolf, and while MLB Trade Rumors lists them as showing interest in five other pitchers, Heyman says the price of mid-level pitching might drive them to spend a little more in pursuit of John Lackey.
The Junkball Blues has a look at the average return teams get on three year contracts to starting pitchers. There are some good ones (Greg Maddux, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett), but also some disasters (Adam Eaton, Jason Schmidt, Carl Pavano).
Jorge Says No! wonders about the wisdom of offering Wolf a third year, but says the Brewers' willingness to do it implies they don't think they can sign Prince Fielder to a long term deal.

By the way, over two months ago Jorge Says No! predicted Wolf would get three years, $31 million on the open market. Impressive.

I feel the need to clarify my position on the Wolf rumor a bit, because I feel I was a little hard on the front office in this one act play last night. I still don't think Wolf wants to play in Milwaukee, which is why Arn Tellem has spent the last 24 hours searching for anyone on a coast willing to match the Brewers' offer. With that said, I'll give credit where credit is due to the front office for finding the guy they wanted and being aggressive in an attempt to get him here. If it turns out that the scenario I laid out is true and Tellem was just using the Brewers to raise the price for someone else, so be it. At least we're talking about the Brewers making an effort, and not hearing the reasons why they can't.

Meanwhile, the Brewers are close to a deal to bring Claudio Vargas back for another season, and are just waiting for formal acceptance from Vargas and his agent (FanShot). Conversation on the deal is probably complicated a bit by the fact that Vargas is currently in the Dominican Republic pitching in winter ball.

They're also expecting an answer sometime today from Craig Counsell, who may or may not be seeking a two year deal for next season. It sounds like Counsell and his agent spent the day yesterday checking out other options. Don't be surprised if a deal gets done relatively quickly.

Ken Macha told reporters yesterday that Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra are the only pitchers guaranteed a spot in the Brewer rotation next season, implying that Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan will have to compete to earn an opportunity (FanShot). Open competition should be good for all involved, especially if the Crew manages to bring in some high-upside pitchers to compete.

Tom H. has all of those notes (and a terrible headline) in his roundup piece today, along with this note: The 40 man roster is starting to fill up, so don't be surprised if the Brewers decide not to take a chance on a Rule 5 pick in tomorrow's draft. I think that's a poor decision. Among others, Tim Dillard and Luis Cruz could probably pass through waivers without much notice. Passing on a cheap lottery ticket to protect one of those guys doesn't seem to make sense.

In the minors:

Project Prospect has a look at the speed of several Brewers who recently performed in the Arizona Fall League. Jonathan Lucroy appears to be in about the middle of the pack, while Taylor Green rated out way on the low end. They mustn't have had enough data to publish a ranking for Lorenzo Cain.
Angel Salome will be the next Brewer prospect to head out for winter ball: He's reportedly leaving at the end of the week to play for Este in the Dominican League. You can keep up with him and all the Brewer winter leaguers in our Winter League Updates.

We're continuing the effort to put together a BCB All Decade Team, and if you haven't cast your first votes yet, there's still time. Voting at first base will remain open until 4 pm today, and voting at second base runs until 4 pm tomorrow. Check back later today to vote for a shortstop.

Around baseball:

Braves: Designated outfielder Ryan Church for assignment.
D-Backs: Acquired pitchers Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy in a three way deal that sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees and outfielder Austin Jackson and pitchers Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and Phil Coke to the Tigers.
Mets: Signed 1B/3B Mike Hessman to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed outfielder Jerry Owens to a minor league deal.
Phillies: Signed Ross Gload to a two year deal.
Pirates: Are expected to sign Bobby Crosby to a one year deal.
Tigers: Signed catcher Robinzon Diaz, who was recently released by the Pirates.
Twins: Designated Boof Bonser for assignment.
White Sox: Signed Mark Teahen to a three year, $14 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Yankees: Will receive the #1 pick in tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft as the PTBNL in the Brian Bruney trade.

Meanwhile, ~~Gritty von Canthitalick~~ Jason Kendall continues to search for work, but there's more suitors than you might think: The Rangers are reportedly strongly considering Kendall, now that Jarrod Saltalamacchia injured his shoulder playing winter ball. The Royals have also expressed interest.

From surprising news to what might possibly be the week's least surprising news: John Lackey is having a hard time finding a team willing to offer him a six year deal.

Actually, this might be the most surprising news: Kudos to the BBWAA for their decision to allow Sean Forman of Baseball Reference to join their organization.

We could have used this days ago, but Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has a guide to deciphering sources in Winter Meeting rumors. Again today, the meetings provide us with some things you might never have known without the internet, and wouldn't have missed:

Michael Tucker, who hasn't played in the majors since 2006, is in Indianapolis and wants to play next season.
Rangers pitcher C.J. Wilson heard about a trade offer the Diamondbacks made for him and was offended by it.
C. Trent Rosecrans gave the Meetings' Best Hat Award to Manny Acta.
Blue Jays beat reporter Jordan Bastian gives us a look at the hotel lobby, complete with Christmas tree.
Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com had to step away from the meetings for a moment to help his mom figure out the TV.

On this day in 1977, the Brewers traded pitchers Jim Slaton and Rich Folkers to the Tigers for Ben Oglivie. The 29 year old Panama native would spend the last nine years of his career as a Brewer, hitting .277/.345/.461, leading the AL with 41 home runs in 1980, and appearing in three All Star games.

Happy birthday today to:

Doc Medich, who made the final ten starts of his major league career for the 1982 Brewers, and turns 61.
Ed Romero, who spent parts of eight seasons as a Brewer in the late 70's and 80's and later served as a minor league infield coordinator and manager. He turns 52.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I have some snowblowing to do.

Drink up.

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Wednesday: Kouzmanoff, Perkins, Quinlan

Jesse — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:58:29 -0000

5:25 pm - This from ESPN's Jayson Stark: the Padres are making a hard push to move Kouzmanoff.

5:20 pm - HAPPY BIRTHDAY JON MARTHALER!

4:25 pm - Ummm....get this...Rich Harden? Yeah. He's signing with the Texas Rangers.

That's kind of a double-whammy for the Mariners, isn't it? Bit of a shock, for sure.

3:50 pm - More Olney: Rich Harden is on the verge of signing with...someone? No news on who. What are the chances that the mystery team is the Twins? Right now the rotation is probably guaranteed in four of five spots, but this would be a huge signing for Minnesota with big-time repurcussions.

What say you? Is it even possible? Rumor has it that the Mariners have been hot on his trail, but it could be someone else...

2:55 pm - Buster Olney tweets that the Twins and Padres "have had several discussions about Kevin Kouzmanoff".

2:45 pm - Kelsie Smith tweets that that the Twins' talks with Mark DeRosa's agent were "preliminary".

1:35 pm - A quiet afternoon for the Twins so far, but Ken Rosenthal tweets that LaTroy Hawkins will be pitching for the Brewers next year. Flame on, LaTroy!

10:50 am - Some highlights from LEN III's morning update, I suggest you pop over for a gander...

The Twins met with DeRosa's agent yesterday. Neal admits that DeRosa's been rumored to be asking for three years and $27 million, but also believes that a wave of non-tenders this weekend could drive down prices.
The agents for Pedro Feliz? They're getting the silent treatment. Can you just see Bill Smith, Rob Antony and company whistling and looking the other way as Feliz's agents walk by in the lobby?
Nothing is imminent with Quinlan.
This is surprising: the Twins tried to sign Boof to a one-year deal recently and were turned down. Looks like it was either one or the other, and we know how that story turns out.

9:40 am - Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes rounds up the speculation over who Minnesota's likely third base targets are. He mentions the usuals: Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Felipe Lopez. And then he adds another one...Juan Uribe. Out of all of those players, the last one I would want would be Uribe.

Adding Joe Crede and Kevin Kouzmanoff to that list, and now we finally have a solid group of players to speculate on. Out of those six, who do you prefer?

7:15 am - A couple things I've read this morning...

First, "talks with Joe Crede are progressing slowly" with the Twins. That's interesting. I would have thought the Twins might try something else before going back to Crede, but perhaps they're just trying to keep their foot in the door.

LEN III in his late-late-late edition last night also said the Twins have interest in Mark DeRosa. Now, this isn't necessarily a surprise, but it's the first we've heard his name tied to the Twins this week.

6:50 am - Wrapping up the last two days before we get into what could be a very interesting day 3...

1. Carl Pavano accepted arbitration. The number people seem to be throwing out there is $7 million, although if the Twins sign him for two years they might be able to get away with $5 million per.

2. The biggest tidbit to come out of Tuesday involved the Twins and Padres discussing a Glen Perkins/Kevin Kouzmanoff swap. San Diego rejected the one-for-one deal, as they're looking for more. The Padres also were linked by Kouz to the Giants yesterday, but once again were looking for more than San Francisco's initial offer.

3. Speaking of the Giants, it sounds like they're shying away from Dan Uggla. The Orioles remain interested, but what about the Twins?

4. The sad news from yesterday: Boof Bonser was designated for assignment. I'm confident he'll sign on with somebody, and be able to contribute in 2010.

5. The Twins are also rumored to be interested in utility man Robb Quinlan, probably as a fourth outfielder.

6. There were a lot of rumors yesterday evening about three teams (one being the Cubs) and a number of players (one being Milton Bradley). A report from earlier in the evening said one team was a "surprise" American League club. Would the Twins be interested in moving Delmon Young in order to fit Bradley? How would you feel about a Michael Cuddyer/Denard Span/Milton Bradley outfield?

7. As we continue to discuss the Winter Meetings at length on the main page, don't forget to vote for the next top prospect! Every day Roger (in conjunction with Seth Stohs) is asking you: who is the next best prospect? If you haven't yet, head over to the FanPosts and vote on yesterday's ballot, and be sure to make your voice heard this afternoon on the next one.

8. Last but certainly not least, be sure to check out our own Jon Marthaler on Seth's podcast!

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:36:15 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

Today's Frosty Mug is so full, I didn't even have time to caption this picture of Randy Wolf.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while evening out the teams.

It turned out to be a pretty active first day of the Winter Meetings. The Brewers were the talk of the late night rumor mill, based on reports that they're close to signing a three year deal with Randy Wolf (also noted in Rumorville). Tom H. says the deal is rumored to be in the $25-27 million range, and is also quantifying the amount of smoke surrounding it.

With that said, the deal mustn't be done yet, because Arn Tellem, who represents Wolf, is meeting with the Mets this morning. Jon Heyman says the Mets aren't willing to offer Wolf a three year deal.

Is this the move you were hoping for from the Brewers? I'd be happy with it at this point, as long as the price isn't much above $27 million. There's always some risk involved, but this is almost certainly a better deal than, for example, the four year deal Joel Pineiro is seeking.

Wolf might not be the only starting pitcher the Brewers acquire this week. They've reportedly discussed a deal with the Mets that would send Corey Hart to New York for John Maine, a former student of Rick Peterson who has missed most of the last year with shoulder issues (FanShot). It's unclear how much fire is behind this smoke, but the Mets are also rumored to be discussing a similar trade with the Angels, with Juan Rivera taking Hart's place.

The Brewers also added a little depth to their middle infield yesterday, claiming shortstop Luis Cruz off waivers from the Pirates (FanShot). Cruz played seven positions (everything but pitcher and catcher) last season in AAA, but has virtually zero ability with the bat (a .274 OBP in AAA last season), and Adam McCalvy confirmed the move was made for minor league, not major league depth. The Brewers don't have a true shortstop prospect in the minors above Brent Brewer and Josh Prince, neither of whom played above A-ball last season.

The Brewer bullpen suffered a blow yesterday, as Mark DiFelice underwent surgery to repair damage to his labrum and rotator cuff, and will miss the entire 2010 season (FanShot). DiFelice is 33 and undergoing his second major shoulder procedure, but intends to try to pitch in the majors again in 2011, telling Adam McCalvy "I don't want it to end like this."

This raises the stakes a little bit in the search for additional bullpen help, but the Crew won't be getting said help from Rafael Betancourt. Late in the day yesterday it was reported that the Brewers were unlikely to lure Betancourt away from a return to the Rockies. I haven't seen it confirmed, but I'm pretty sure he accepted arbitration late last night.

Looking back at a rumor from the weekend, In-Between Hops has come out against a Jeff Suppan-for-Juan Pierre deal, fearing the extra $4 million in salary the Brewers would have to take on would make it difficult for them to sign a pitcher like Randy Wolf.

And, looking back even farther, Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at the pitch-blocking ability of Gregg Zaun. Ken Macha is making me crazy: I should see this as a positive, but instead I see it as the excuse that might be used to keep an underperforming/overused Zaun in the lineup and a more deserving catcher on the bench.

In the minors, Brewerfan.net has a new Power 50 up. It's always interesting to see how guys move up and down the charts during the offseason. This edition's big gainers were Kentrail Davis, Jake Odorizzi and John Axford, with Hernan Iribarren, Chris Cody and Max Walla losing significant ground.

And around here, we're looking for your help to select a Brewer All-Decade Team in a series we're calling Making Your '00 Face. That link will take you to the voting for first base, where Prince Fielder has opened up what will likely turn out to be an insurmountable lead. Voting for second base will open at 4 pm today.

Around baseball:

Braves: Reliever Rafael Soriano has accepted the team's offer of arbitration.
Cardinals: Have agreed to a one year, $7.5 million deal for Brad Penny, pending a physical.
Nationals: Signed Ivan Rodriguez to a two year deal worth $6 million, acquired reliever Brian Bruney from the Yankees for a PTBNL, and released reliever Saul Rivera.
Pirates: Signed reliever Vinnie Chulk to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired pitcher Clay Rapada from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Red Sox: Signed pitcher Fabio Castro and re-signed Kason Gabbard.
Rockies: Released outfielder Matt Murton, who is expected to spend 2010 in Japan.
Tigers: Re-signed Adam Everett to a one year deal, and signed reliever Brad Thomas, who has spent the last two seasons pitching in Korea.
Twins: Carl Pavano has accepted the team's arbitration offer.

The Rule 5 Draft is on Thursday, so I'm almost done burying you in links like these: Harry Pavlidis of The Hardball Times and Lisa Winston of MiLB.com have a look at several players who recently played in the Arizona Fall League and were left unprotected in the draft.

Competition is heating up in the market for Edwin Jackson. One report yesterday had the Tigers receiving 12 offers for his services. I guess that's what you get when you put a pitcher who threw over 200 effective innings last season and is due about $5 million on the market.

Speaking of pitchers the Brewers might be interested in, Justin Duchscherer declined the A's offer of salary arbitration.

I think most of us will be happy to see these former Brewers sign elsewhere, and keeping one of them in the division would be a double bonus: Jason Kendall is reportedly drawing interest from the Royals, and Braden Looper has expressed interest in pitching for the Cubs.

In case you were wondering, Keith Law has an explanation of how the Winter Meetings, usually held in a warm vacation spot, ended up in Indianapolis. The cold temps and snow haven't kept people from exchanging some tidbits of info you probably would never have known without the internet (and might not have missed):

There was apparently a small tiff between Scott Boras and new Hall of Famer Whitey Herzog over comments Herzog made about Matt Holliday, a Boras client.
Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez didn't shoot anything while out deer hunting with Bobby Cox last week.
Former D-Back, Indian, Ray and Ranger Nick Bierbrodt, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2004, is a ttempting a comeback.
New Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopolous is battling a cold this week, so he's not shaking anyone's hand.
Speaking of the Blue Jays, radio reporter Mike Wilner has an annoying ring tone and left his phone in the media workroom yesterday.
Craig Calcaterra brought an airport card to the meetings, making him one of the few writers not reliant on slow internet service.

And, of course we're all having fun this week, but Paul DePodesta has a reminder for all of us that many of this week's rumors will be just that, and not to get too worked up over them. Of course, no one ever gets too worked up around here, right?

Away from the meetings, here's a strange story. After months of investigation, Major League Baseball has concluded that new Twins prospect Miguel Angel Sano, who claims to be 16, is somewhere between 16 and 18. Sano also recently changed his name to Miguel Jean. If he turns out to be Miguel Tejada in disguise, the Twins will probably be very upset.

On this day in 1991, Brewer reliever Julio Machado was arrested for murder after shooting a passenger in a car that had just been involved in an accident. Machado was later found guilty and served 12 years in prison.

I don't have any Brewer birthdays today, but it is a Woot-off day, so there's that.

Drink up.

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Tuesday: Pavano Accepts Arbitration

Jesse — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:33:42 -0000

9:00 pm - Random update from Jon: I'll be on Seth Stohs' podcast about 9:25pm Central time, presumably to make jokes about Nick Punto showing up at the Winter Meetings to dive headfirst into Marirott lobby plants.

3:05 pm - Over at LEN III's blog he chats about Bonser's departure, done in order to create room for Pavano on the 40-man roster. He also continues to speculate that Perkins could be traded, and brings up something that's been discussed here before but would be an immense surprise to me if it actally happened: the potential for Jesse Crain to be non-tendered.

2:35 - Aaron Gleeman re-Tweets from Lyle Spencer: Twins are interested in Robb Quinlan, and they aren't the only team to be so inclined.

2:20 pm - Peter Gammons is to leave ESPN following his assignment at the Winter Meetings. I love Gammons, so this makes me sad. Hopefully he continues to be a baseball correspondent in some form.

2:05 pm - As noted in the comments and courtesy of Kelsie Smith, the Twins have designated Boof Bonser for assignment. Au revoir, Boof. It's a shame it has to end this way, because I really do think he had something to offer this club. Unfortunately he's become a casualty of depth; it's a shame he couldn't be traded.

1:05 pm - A few notes on names of interest as the first big trade of the Winter Meetings nears completion (Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks)...

LaTroy Hawkins is hoping to get a deal done with the Astros. Hawkins turns 37 in a couple of weeks.
Sounds like the Orioles are still the leading candidate to land Dan Uggla.
As fischean pointed out, Ryan Church has been designated for assignment. Does anyone think the Twins would be interested in him as a fourth outfielder?
This three-way deal sounds like it'll be a pretty big deal...

Noon - From LEN III's mid-morning update...

The Padres want to speak to the Twins about Kevin Kouzmanoff. Remember when we were talking about him for about four straight days last year?
Sounds like the agent for Pedro Feliz wants to feel up out the Twins as well.
He believes Boof Bonser could be made available, and that the Padres (probably in relation to Kouz) might be interested in Glen Perkins.

11:15 am - Joe C. projects that if Pavano makes $7 million through arbitration (I still want to think that's high) then Minnesota's opening day payroll is already at $90 million--without making another move or extending Joe Mauer.

11:05 am - Kelsie Smith has an email from Pavano where he explains why he's staying with the Twins. I don't want to share the whole thing, because Kelsie deserves a look for having it in the first place, but this line struck me:

Or I accept arbitration and work out a deal with a team that is strong in character and talent, as I have already experienced, with a staff that is the one of the best I've had in baseball, and in a division where our rival last year is rumored to be unloading some of their top players with other teams in the start of a rebuilding phase.<.i>

10:40 am - Over at his blog, LEN III speculates that with Pavano accepting arbitration, Glen Perkins is expendable pitcher numero uno. Do you agree?

6:30 am - Rounding up some Twins-related news from yesterday before we kick off the second day of the Winter Meetings.

Carl Pavano was one of three potential free agents to accept arbitration, along with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano. And that's...pretty much it! Perchance day two will bring more news, but I guarantee it'll continue to bring more speculation...

More Winter Meeting Headlines

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 01:56:28 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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The Orioles are making it known that they are interested in free agent reliever Rafael Soriano, in an apparent attempt to lure Soriano into free agency. Soriano is still considering accepting arbitration from the Braves.
The Cardinals were working on a deal with Brad Penny, and apparently agreed to a one year deal worth 7.5 million dollars.
The Diamondbacks are looking for starting pitching help and have their eyes on Tigers pitcher Edwin Jackson, free agent Justin Duchscherer, among others.
Carl Pavano will accept arbitration from the Twins, his agent confirms.
The Pirates are interested in free agent shortstop Bobby Crosby, according to Ken Rosenthal.
One AL source said the Yankees are looking at cheaper free agent options but still keeping tabs on premier pitchers like Roy Halladay. The source says Rich Harden and Kelvim Escobar are guys they are both watching.

Carl Pavano decision by midnight

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:57:02 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

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Twins pitcher Carl Pavano will decide whether or not to accept arbitration by midnight tonight, according to his agent Tom O'Connell.

First reported by MLBDD (via Twitter), and confirmed by Ken Rosenthal.

The Twins remain interested in re-signing Pavano, who was 5-4, with a 4.64 ERA in 12 starts for Minnesota after being acquired from Cleveland in an August waiver-wire deal.

If he opts for free agency, the Twins are expected to contact Jarrod Washburn and Randy Wolf.

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Monday

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 12:00:29 -0000

6:30 pm - As TonyO points out in the comment threads, LEN III is reporting that Pavano will indeed accept the Twins' offer of arbitration.

I should point out that this means there is only one rotation spot up for grabs. This provides Minnesota with a lot of starting pitching depth, although none of the contenders for the fifth spot look like stars. Could the Twins batch a couple of them along with another piece or two to get something significant in return?

Back to Pavano, Ed Price thinks the Twins could be on the hook for $7 million for this decision. Considering this was his first healthy season in half a decade, I think that's a bit high unless he reaches some incentive bonuses. But we'll find out.

3:45 pm - Happy Monday afternoon y'all, here's another Jesse update, rounding up some of the SP and 3B names and teams in circulation...

Ed Price tweets that no fewer than 12 teams are interested in Tigers starter Edwin Jackson.
Meanwhile, Ken Davidoff wonders if starters not named John Lackey or Randy Wolf can get more than a one-year deal.
Speaking of Wolf, Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers are hot on his trail.
Former Pavano rotation-mate Brad Penny is close to signing with the Cardinals.
It sounds like Mark DeRose will decline the Cards' offer of arbitration.
Adrian Beltre is also likely to decline arbitration.

Noon - Ken Rosenthal contradicts Neal, saying Pavano is actually likely to accept the offer of arbitration. Intriguing.

10:15 am - La Velle is guessing that Pavano will decline arbitration, and is hoping to get a multi-year deal.

9:30 am - Morning all, Jesse here. Over at Big League Stew there's a perma-chat going on, with news from Yahoo!'s pundits. A couple of things from Tim Brown: apparently Pavano's agent pressed the Twins for a multi-year deal last night. Brown also mentions that the Twins have prioritized starting pitching and third basemen, "in that order".

9:00 am - Only one link so far to start off the morning - Kelsie Smith at the PiPress reminds us all that those offered arbitration have to decide today whether to accept it. For the Twins, that's only Carl Pavano, and apparently Bill Smith and Pavano agent Tom O'Connell were deep in conversation late last night.

HOT STOVE CHAOS! HERE WE GO!

Okay, we're Twins fans; it's unlikely we'll see too much CHAOS this week. Nevertheless, we'll be following the news and posting updates in this thread. Discuss in the comments, of course.