SB Nation - Casey Kotchman

John Lackey's Signing: The Potential Ripple Effect

ltrain2 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:38:24 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Is Adrian Gonzalez, pictured here, the next big name acquisition to be announced by the Boston Red Sox following the recent signing of free agent pitcher John Lackey?

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In what can surely be considered an understatement; the Red Sox's recent off-season activity has the Major League Baseball community buzzing, namely the population that makes up 'Red Sox Nation.'

On Monday, following reports that discussions surrounding re-signing Jason Bay had soured, the Red Sox proceeded to sign the top available starting pitcher via free agency, John Lackey, to a 5-year deal. The arrival of the former Angels' ace in Boston has been dissected in a bevy of ways since news broke earlier today by nearly every media outlet, each offering their own unique opinion on the situation. Some suggest that Lackey represents a reallocation of the funds originally intended for Bay. However, I don't believe that there is enough emphasis being placed on the big picture as a result of the acquisition, and the subsequent sequence of events that may potentially follow.

While some may argue that because Jason Bay is no longer an option, the Red Sox may have simply taken their money and invested in another big ticket free agent instead. If that were the case, wouldn't it have been more intelligent to focus on someone like Matt Holliday or Adrian Beltre to help fill the holes that Boston has both defensively and offensively, rather than acquire a starting pitcher? While there's no denying that the depth in regards to the starting rotation was a point of emphasis for management heading into the off-season, it seems rather narrow-minded to use such a large sum of financial resources to fill that void while continuing to ignore the ones at third base and left field.

Is it possible that Mike Cameron is set to be Jason Bay's replacement, especially given the defensive upgrade he represents, and that they simply used the money that they saved by not going after Matt Holliday on the combination of Cameron and Lackey? Sure, it's not a farfetched theory by any means. However, after much deliberation on the topic, I have come to the conclusion that there may be more to the Red Sox's recent acquisitions than what is evident on the surface.

One piece of information that slipped through the cracks today, which is understandable given the more notable moves made, is that the Red Sox made a two year contract offer reportedly worth $15 million dollars to left-handed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, a 21 year-old starting pitcher with a fastball that consistently touches triple-digits, could offer a bit of foreshadowing into the Red Sox's plan of action in relation to their void at third base.

The $80-85 million dollar contract awarded to Lackey is what originally made me look into the potential reasoning behind extending $15 million to Chapman who, like Lackey, is a starting pitcher. No, Chapman would not likely be added to the MLB-level rotation come opening day, but there are still some flags being raised by Boston's pursuit of the young talent. Why continue attempting to accrue starting pitching depth with a hole still evident at not only the third base position, but in the lineup as well?

Consider this; the addition of Lackey now gives Boston six viable options for their rotation, as it stands now, heading into 2010. With Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield, a once seemingly questionable rotation has become more than formidable, arguably the best in baseball. Where does extending a $15 million dollar contract to a young, unproven, prospect-type pitcher make sense given the Red Sox's glaring needs elsewhere?

It would not only make sense, but it would actually appear rather brilliant in its creativeness, if the plan of action was to turn around and begin shopping the attractive young talent that is Clay Buchholz. Buchholz, known for his devastating arsenal of off-speed pitches as well as his limitless potential, seemingly finds himself immersed in nearly every trade discussion involving the Red Sox the last few years. So why stop now?

One reason that Theo Epstein has been reluctant to move Buchholz to this point is that it is difficult to find a young starting pitcher with that much potential without having to develop internally, as they did with Clay. This is where Aroldis Chapman becomes relevant to this discussion.

Matt Holliday had been the center of rumors regarding the Red Sox's planned route in the event that Bay could not be retained. However, recent reports (especially coming from Holliday's agent, Scott Boras) suggest that signing Holliday would require a deal exceeding that in which Jason Bay is commanding at the present time. Boras has been rather vocal in his opinion that Holliday is a more valuable asset than Bay to an interested team. Having said that, and assuming that Adrian Beltre is now out of this off-season's budget limit, it's hard to imagine that the Red Sox are left with many options to plug third base via free agency. It's also safe to assume that management is left unsatisfied with Cameron replacing Bay if it means that someone like Casey Kotchman is going to take over the first base duties, with Youkilis moving to third base in this scenario (also making the assumption that moving Varitek back behind the plate full-time, while shifting Youkilis to third and Victor Martinez to first, is not a realistic option).

All of this leads me to believe that the Red Sox next plan of action is to begin gauging interest from teams regarding the aforementioned Clay Buchholz.

With the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman, moving Clay Buchholz could become more justifiable to the Red Sox. Essentially, the Chapman signing may simply be a case of replacing one young pitching prospect with another, allowing Boston to utilize Buchholz's trade-appeal and acquire the corner infield-bat that they so desperately need.

San Diego could potentially be a player in any discussion pertaining to Buchholz. The Red Sox have discussed the availability of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez with the Padres recently, but to no avail, citing Boston's hesitation to move Buchholz as a main reason. Reports, prior to the Lackey signing, made it appear as though no progress was being made on that front. Padres general manager Jed Hoyer reportedly requested a combination of Buchholz and either Casey Kelly (a pitching prospect widely considered untouchable in such discussions) or outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

One interesting aspect of negotiations is that Jason McLeod, a former Red Sox scouting director, is now employed by Hoyer. It has been said that both have a detailed understanding and admiration of the Boston system.

While the Red Sox still expected to retain Jason Bay, it was understandable for Epstein to be adverse to the idea of unloading Buchholz, especially given his opinion that the rotation (even with Buchholz) lacked depth. Also, because Bay was still an option at that point, the need for an offensive upgrade was slightly less glaring. With Bay and Holliday now out of the mix, and the potential signings of both Lackey and Chapman, the attention has to be redirected back to the original need for offense at one of the corner infield spots left vacant by Mike Lowell's departure (still pending). A platoon of Mike Cameron and Jeremy Hermida is probably not the caliber of replacement in left field that Boston entered the off-season with in mind, but acquiring someone such as Adrian Gonzalez would have to help alleviate any concerns regarding offensive potency that may still linger.

As I implied earlier, San Diego is very interested in Clay Buchholz, even going as far as insisting his presence in any potential package offered by Boston. If Chapman is signed, Buchholz immediately becomes more expendable, and Gonzalez that much more appealing. Boston's interest in Chapman has been evident for some time, is it possible now that his addition could represent the subtraction of Buchholz? Clay's availability has to increase exponentially in the event that the Red Sox land Chapman.

It is starting to appear as though Theo Epstein has been underestimated in his approach this off-season all along. His lack of activity seems to have directly corresponded with the progress made in re-signing Bay. As soon as the discussions began to break down, Theo started making moves. My feeling is that he has had this plan in his back pocket the whole time he was in talks with Bay and his representatives, and is only now beginning to deploy it.

One fact remains certain, Boston's needs a power-hitter to compliment their lineup following the departure of Jason Bay. With Cameron and Hermida joining J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, completing a respectable core of outfielders, the most obvious place to fill that void remains at one of the corner infield spots.

It's hard to imagine a better solution than someone like Adrian Gonzalez.

Bourjos for Granderson? Angels Prospect Coveted Prior to Big Trade

Rev Halofan — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:54:44 -0000

Reports out of the Indianapolis Winter meetings indicate that the Angels biggest headway into trading for Curtis Granderson, the Tigers outfielder came when they added minor league prospect Peter Bourjos to the package. (Source is Fox Sports.)

The Angels are on the sidelines for now, though, as a three team deal for Granderson involving the Diamondbacks and Yankees (and including pitcher Max Scherzer) is gaining steam. But like Bill Stoneman learned about Casey Kotchman when he was offered many combinations of veterans for the young infielder at the 2005 Winter Meetings: Forget Baseball Prospectus, sometimes other clubs will tell you who your top prospect is.

Poll

Is Peter Bourjos an Untouchable Prospect?

Nick Johnson drawing interest on open market?

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:37:24 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

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Foxsports.com is reporting that the Mariners have interest in free agent first baseman Nick Johnson. The Mariners are still negotiating with Russell Branyan, who recently rejected their one-year offer.

Johnson is also drawing interest from the Giants, Mets, and Yankees, who see Johnson as a fallback at the DH spot if they miss out on Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon. Sources say the Braves have some interest, but only if they are unable to sign Adam LaRoche.

Johnson put together a strong season, and he could really look like a bargain if he finds some of the power that was missing in 2009.

The Mariners are looking at Johnson, among others, if Branyan does in fact sign elsewhere. Casey Kotchman is someone they are keeping their eye on, but he would only become available if the Red Sox do not offer him a contract.

Dissecting the Red Sox Roster: Batters

Ben Buchanan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:32:20 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

This man swings a big bat. A very, very big bat. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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Well, this took me a little longer than I expected, but oh well. Continuing in the player-by-player breakdown of who we had in 2009 and what they are to the team in 2010, I give you the batters.

Brian Anderson: Let's start things off easy, shall we? Brian Anderson really brought nothing to this team in 2009. Sure, he had that one really good game against Cleveland when nothing mattered, and his 1.028 OPS is pretty to look at if you ignore how many ABs it took. But he's not a major league player. If he's willing to be stuffed back in the minor leagues, maybe he comes back as very mediocre insurance. But if not, the Sox should have no qualms with dumping the failed prospect.

Rocco Baldelli: Rocco wasn't all that bad as far as a bench bat is concerned. He had a very low OBP, but brought a little pop to the lineup when he was slotted in and finished with a mid-700s OPS. He even played a good center field in limited innings, if his UZR came in below average in the outfield over the year. Ultimately, though, Rocco does not bring any solid reliability to the bench. He's got obvious injury risks, and if you can't rely on a guy to come off the bench and give you a solid AB regardless of how often he plays is not necessarily the guy you want. Unless his price is very low, I expect the Sox will let him walk in favor of someone more reliable.

Jason Bay: Now here's where things get interesting. Let's look at the facts: Jason Bay was a fantastic offensive producer for the Red Sox. He lead American League outfielders in numerous offensive statistics, and was a great middle-of-the-order guy every month but July. Now, it's tempting to just say "sign him"—and I think the Red Sox ultimately will. But I'm not sure that's going to be a good idea. For a team where the goal has long been to exploit the unexploited market and avoid overpaying based on name and hype, Jason Bay seems like exactly the wrong sort of signing: a guy with big numbers where people often look (RBI, HR, and yes, OBP, SLG, and wOBA) but crap numbers where they do not (UZR). If Bay wants to sign with us, he'd better understand that he will have to DH when we ask him to DH.

J.D. Drew: Seriously, for those of you Drew-haters—and I know a few still linger—ask yourselves if you're not a bit too caught up in his 2007 numbers. Last year he was a top-10 outfielder by wOBA, top-3 by OPS. And unlike his similarly offensively gifted outfielder Jason Bay, Drew is a very solid defensive outfielder as well, worth 9.7 runs above replacement, good for 6^th amongst major league right fielders. Is he costly? Yes, but he's a ridiculously good player and worth every penny in '08 and '09. I'm not saying we should resign him after his contract runs out in 2 years, but until then he's an integral part of this team that's probably being underutilized batting 8^th every other game.

Jacoby Ellsbury: There's not a lot left to be said about Jacoby Ellsbury that hasn't already been said here. A seemingly great defensive outfielder due to speed and the occasional flashy dive or leap, Ellsbury's abilities do not hold up well under scrutiny. Bad jumps and poor routes lead him to being one of the worst defensive center fielders by UZR, and offensively the problems are the same as usual: OBP, OBP, OBP. As a leadoff hitter, that number should be higher than it is, though he's made improvements, it's questionable whether that's due to improving skills or a higher BABIP this year. The K% and BB% are moving slowly in the right direction, but to stay in CF he's going to have to improve his defense, and if he wants to make it in left, he's going to need to improve his bat way more than he has so far.

Joey Gathright: He's a good guy to have in the system, but he's not one you want for the long haul. He's not got a bat to be worth a spot on the bench except when you're in the postseason and can expect to be playing your starters every single game and might just need that one key SB. Otherwise, hes' a roster spot best used on a solid all-around player.

Alex Gonzalez: There's gotta be a little bit of emotion involved in the decision making process for those who want to bring the more diminutive A-Gon back. The Red Sox hadn't had a guy let them feel safe on a ball hit to the SS hole for a while, and Gonzalez gave them that for a short time. Add in a few clutch hits, a surprising number of homers, and replacing a combination of Julio Lugo, Nick Green, and Brian Woodward and I'm surprised we haven't had statues going up left and right. But looking at Gonzo's case rationally, he's not at all worth the $6 million option on his contract, and he's probably not a great player to keep on. First off, even his .316 OBP this year with the Sox was very nearly a career high. He is, undoubtedly, a black hole in the lineup. And in the field, while he's good, he's not great and he's not likely to get any better as he gets older. This guy is not a solution to the long-term problem, he is a short-term stopgap who kept Sox fans from tearing out their hair. In his short time with the Sox, Jed Lowrie has shown no signs of driving Sox fans insane with fielding errors, and has the potential to swing a big bat. Pair him with another possible solution (*cough*JJ Hardy*cough*) and see who emerges.

Nick Green: As fun as it was to watch Nick Green go on his early-season hot streak and show remarkable range at short, he's unlikely to reproduce either next year, and so is probably minor-league depth at best for this team.

Casey Kotchman: Another player who just doesn't have a great future with the Sox. There's likely at least one team in the league likely to give him a starting job at first, and he never seemed to get his bat going even to his usual levels as a bench player. While he's got a great glove at first, that's just not the greatest use of a bench spot, especially if we can employ a late-inning defensive unit with Jed at 3^rd, Youk at 1^st, and hopefully a good defensive backup/platoon SS. Send him on his way and see if we can't get some value for him.

George Kottaras: Bad bat, mediocre defensive catcher, and with Mark Wagner throwing out guys left and right and flashing a bat again, he may well have missed his window with the Sox. Sorry, Kott.

Mike Lowell: To say Mike has been disappointing since signing his contract in the 2007-2008 offseason would probably be an understatement. .274/.338/.461 and .290/.337/.474 are not lines worth $12 million, especially not when paired with defense befitting a cripple. However, there's reason to be encouraged. Even with limited starts, Lowell put up pretty good numbers in July and August before disappearing in September, and started to show signs of being the old defensive Lowell as the season came to a close. The ability to be the old Mike Lowell is still there, and hopefully with more consistent playing time (with Martinez taking over at catcher, Youk will be staying at first a lot more) and a healed hip, Mike could flash us some of the old magic in what will almost certainly be his last year with the Red Sox.

Jed Lowrie: If the wrist is healthy, he should be our starting shortstop. The defense is there, the offense should by all accounts be there with a well-repaired wrist—there's no evidence of significant discrepancies in his L/R splits in the minors. I still think he's our shortstop of the future.

Victor Martinez: I'll admit that I got this guy wrong. He came into Fenway and produced. But that doesn't change that he's not an impressive defensive catcher, which is the position he's going to have to fill more often than not next year. Hopefully, his position splits fall more in line with his pre-'09 numbers instead of his clearly first base heavy ones from last year. Otherwise, while he won't be Varitek bad, the upgrade isn't going to be as big as we expect.

David Ortiz: Perhaps the biggest single question mark on the Red Sox going into 2010 is Big Papi. Obviously, he is on the decline. Obviously, he's not due for a big contract in 2011 if any at all. And obviously, so long as he doesn't somehow find his way into pin stripes, he's due to go down as one of the all-time Sox if only for his contributions in '07 and especially '04. But next year anything could happen. While Ortiz ended the season with an OPS of .794, he put up a 1.062 OPS in June, .845 in July, .825 in August, and .947 in September. But when that's being so strongly offset by the slow starts he's had for the last few years, it's hard to justify keeping him consistently at DH. Papi needs to figure out what it is that's making him start slow (not exactly the sign of an aging guy who would tend to break down over the course of the season) over the offseason, and FIX IT. More prep, less prep, I don't know, but if he fixes it, the Sox could pull a huge weapon out of nowhere.

Or he could just continue to disappear.

Dustin Pedroia: Not much to this one. He's our guy at second base for the foreseeable future. Huge defense, great on base capabilities, and with the ability to show a little sneaky pop. After putting up an MVP season in 2008, Pedroia seemed to regress a little in 2009, but I wouldn't expect that to continue at all. In fact, I'd expect him to get better in a lot of ways. After BABIPs of .334 and .336 in '07 and '08, Petey posted a .300 in '09. He had a little bit of a GB/FB shift, and maybe swung for the fences a bit too much when he had only a couple dingers midway through the year. If Petey can get back to playing his game, he could easily jump back over the .850 OPS mark.

Jason Varitek: As much as I love the captain for all he's done, it's time to call it quits. Tek is not currently worth a roster spot. He doesn't have the offense to be a full-time catcher, or the defense to be a backup. Plus his presence will likely just make it harder to get the pitchers in synch with Martinez and whoever ends up backing him up next season. If he insists on picking up the player's option, pay him his 3 million and cut him loose. I hope he ends up as a coach with us someday, but there's just no justification to waste a spot on him.

Chris Woodward: A guy with no redeeming qualities. Awful defense, awful offense...Don't even stick him in Pawtucket, just cut him.

Kevin Youkilis: After the dramatic improvement between '07 and '08, Sox fans would've been completely justified in wondering if this late-blooming Youk was for real. .843 OPS is acceptable at 3^rd, or 1^st with great defense. .959 OPS with great defense at the corners? That's MVP stuff. .312/.390/.569 became .305/.413/.548, and Sox fans were reassured. Kevin Youkilis is THE middle-of-the-lineup guy for the Red Sox. He may not his tons of homers, but he's going to produce. Youk's extension was clearly a good buy now.

By the way, did anyone else realize he had 7 steals last year? Go figure. Nice little tidbit to end the article on.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Adam LaRoche

gondeee — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 14:00:24 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Adam LaRoche should be the guy manning first base for the Atlanta Braves next season.

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Some of this will be a bit of a rehashing of a post I did earlier this week that was mainly about Adam LaRoche, but much of it is worth repeating. The Braves shocked quite a few people (including LaRcohe) when they re-acquired him at the trade deadline this year, and many people questioned the move, but it worked out pretty well for Atlanta. Here is a comparison of LaRoche's stats with Atlanta and Casey Kotchman's stats with Atlanta:

Player	Games	Homeruns	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Casey Kotchman	87	6	41	.282	.354	.409
Adam LaRoche	57	12	40	.325	.401	.557

Quite an improvement, and I don't think it's any coincidence that the Braves made their run after he arrived and our production out of first base elevated to above league average. LaRoche is a key component to our offense. During his time this year with Pittsburgh, Boston, and Atlanta, when LaRoche hit well the team won. His OPS in team victories in 2009 was 1.089 and in team losses it was .595 -- quite a disparity. The biggest difference between wins and losses was his slugging percentage -- twice as good in wins (.655) as in losses (.325). This is much more of a stark difference than we see with Kotchman (.790 OPS in wins, .642 in losses). This split for LaRoche indicates that his power is a game changing commodity.

LaRoche is certainly the kind of first baseman that the Braves need in their lineup. It would be wonderful to call up Freddie Freeman and have him come close to the numbers that LaRoche put up, but let's not rush him and create another Scott Thorman. The Braves need LaRoche back and they should make re-signing him their first priority this off-season. Freeman only turned 20 this year, so if the Braves were to offer LaRoche a three-year deal, the young Freeman would still be young by the time that deal was over. He would be just 23 when he would be expected to become a starter in 2012. By signing LaRoche we don't rush Freeman, giving him ample time to develop, and if someone else comes along in the interim (RSF), then we have tradeable pieces, or we could trade LaRoche if Freeman proves ready in the next two years.

With LaRoche we know what we're going to get. A guy who hits 25 homeruns a year, drives in about 83 runners, hits about .275, gets on base at a .350 clip, and slugs at around the .480 mark. With only minor deviations that what he's done each of the last three years, with the notable exception that he does remarkably better when he's wearing a Braves uniform.

The bottom line is that we should not be afraid to re-sign LaRoche to a multi-year deal. He is not the cleanup hitter we seek, but he is a necessary complimentary piece in the middle of playoff lineup. Building a better offense for next season starts with him.

Coming up tomorrow, the top-5 minor league first basemen in the Braves system, and a first baseman's round table between the bloggers here at Talking Chop.

Red Sox roster still unknown, but here's a good prediction

Randy Booth — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 15:27:18 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

2 months ago: Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia waits to hit during practice in Anaheim, Calif., Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2009, in preparation for the team's upcoming American League division series baseball game against the Los Angeles Angels. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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[Note by Randy Booth, 10/08/09 12:58 PM EDT ] Rocco Baldelli will not be on the ALDS roster. He just isn't healthy enough, apparently.

OK, Tito. Gettin' kind of sick of this, buddy. Where's the Red Sox's ALDS roster?

It's funny that the Twins, who only made the playoffs Tuesday night, had their roster set for their Wednesday game. But the Sox, who have known they would be in the playoffs for weeks now, still have yet to unrelease theirs.

Whatev.

But it won't be too hard to figure out. Here are the locks in the lineup and pitching staff:

CATCHER (2)
Victor Martinez
Jason Varitek

INFIELD (6)
Kevin Youkilis
Casey Kotchman
Dustin Pedroia
Alex Gonzalez
Jed Lowrie
Mike Lowell

OUTFIELD (3)
Jason Bay
Jacoby Ellsbury
J.D. Drew

DESIGNATED HITTER (1)
David Ortiz

PITCHERS (11)
Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
Clay Buchholz
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Paul Byrd
Jonathan Papelbon
Billy Wagner
Takashi Saito
Daniel Bard
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez

The big snag is the backup outfielder spot. The Red Sox have said they want to try and play Rocco Baldelli, but they're unsure of his healthy. My guess is that they'll put him in the lineup just to see. So who fills the gap? Either Joey Gathright or Brian Anderson. If they want speed, they'll go with Gathright. If they want defense, they'll go with Anderson. It'll actually be a tough choice, but I think we'll see Gathright.

But what do you think?

Poll

If Rocco Baldelli is the No. 4 outfielder (if healthy), who is the fifth?

Joey Gathright. The Sox need his speed off the bench.

267 votes

Brian Anderson. The Sox need his defense off the bench.

69 votes

336 votes | Poll has closed

Playoff Teams Defense Analysis - How They Got There and What to Expect - American League Edition

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:32:12 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels center fielder Gary Matthews Jr. catches a fly ball in front of a mural honoring Los Angeles Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart, Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2009, during practice in preparation for the team's upcoming playoff baseball game in Anaheim, Calif. Adenhart died in a car accident last April. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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A couple days ago I publish the look at the defensive stats of the teams that made the playoffs in the National League. Now it is time for the American League. For this analysis, I will be using UZR data from from Fangraphs.com. I computed the numbers a few days ago and waited for the season to end. Fangraphs updates their numbers on Monday so these UZR are not from this Monday but the Monday before that.

First, here are the totals of all the AL teams in the playoffs:

As it can be seen, the Angel's defense this season was the best of the four teams with them saving about 30 more runs than the Yankees and Red Sox and about 45 more runs than the Twins.

Besides the team totals, the UZR can be broken down to individual positions. Here is a comparison of each of the 4 teams by position totals.

None of these team were great in the field and shows by the variations from position to position.

Even though these graphs show how a team did during the season, it doesn't show what to except in the post season. For example, the Angels missed Tori Hunter for a while due to injury and the players that replaced him might explain the low ranking in CF for the Angels (actually Tori had a pretty bad year in CF). For each team, I went ahead and calculated the true UZR value of each player projected to start in the playoffs.

For those that need to know, it was a 5-4-3-2 weighted average of seasonally regressed values to 125 games with no final age adjustment. For example, Derek Jeter had a 6.4 UZR for 2009, but taking into account his previous seasons his true talent level is near -1.7 UZR.

So here is a look at each team's 2009 numbers and the true talent level of the players expected to play during the post season (I will add more as needed - when injuries happen or if I happened to miss someone).

Minnesota Twins (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Justin Morneau	0.67
1B	Michael Cuddyer	-0.13
2B	Nick Punto	0.81
2B	Alexi Casilla	-2.73
3B	Matt Tolbert	-0.03
3B	Joe Crede	7.44
3B	Brendan Harris	-1.2
SS	Nick Punto	2.59
SS	Orlando Cabrera	-0.11
LF	Delmon Young	-10.2
LF	Denard Span	2.12
CF	Carlos Gomez	7.6
CF	Denard Span	-0.72
RF	Jason Kubel	-1.39
RF	Michael Cuddyer	-7
RF	Denard Span	1.82

LA Angels (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Kendry Morales	3.0
2B	Howie Kendrick	1.8
2B	Maicer Izturis	1.5
3B	Chone Figgins	6.6
SS	Erick Aybar	3.7
SS	Maicer Izturis	1.0
LF	Juan Rivera	5.9
CF	Gary Matthews Jr.	-5.4
CF	Torii Hunter	-6.0
RF	Bobby Abreu	-11.3
RF	Gary Matthews Jr.	-1.0

New York Yankees (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Mark Teixeira	1.5
2B	Robinson Cano	-1.9
3B	Alex Rodriguez	-3.7
SS	Derek Jeter	-1.7
LF	Johnny Damon	-2.4
CF	Melky Cabrera	-1.5
CF	Brett Gardner	3.2
RF	Nick Swisher	2.1
RF	Eric Hinske	0.6
RF	Melky Cabrera	-0.3

Boston Red Sox (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Victor Martinez	-0.1
1B	Kevin Youkilis	3.2
1B	Casey Kotchman	4.5
2B	Dustin Pedroia	6.9
3B	Mike Lowell	2.3
3B	Kevin Youkilis	-0.1
SS	Alex Gonzalez	4.5
SS	Nick Green	-2.0
SS	Jed Lowrie	4.2
LF	Jason Bay	-9.6
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	-6.7
RF	Rocco Baldelli	-0.6
RF	J.D. Drew	4.6

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First, thanks to Justin for supplying the graphics and let me know if any players might be seeing playing time in the first 2 rounds. I am not going to go through all possible lineups once the DH is added and removed in the World Series until two teams qualify.

Top-5 Off-Season Questions for the Atlanta Braves: #4

gondeee — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 23:43:50 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Could Chipper Jones be instrumental in the Atlanta Braves re-signing Adam LaRoche?

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We continue our look at the top-5 questions facing the Atlanta Braves this off-season.

Question Four: Who will man first base for the Braves in 2010?

There was so much concern last year by the Braves at the trade deadline that they get a first baseman in return for Mark Teixeira. They settled, if you will, on the promise of Casey Kotchman -- he who had not yet fulfilled his potential as a major league player. Perhaps that was a theme of our team going into this season with Kotchman, Jeff Francoeur, and Kelly Johnson, all with great "potential," all who had rarely showed that potential. The trade for Adam LaRoche was a shock to most, and a gamble to many others, but it turned out to be a great deal, though it will leave the Braves with a potential hole at first (something they seemed to want to avoid a year ago). Here is what the Braves got and what they gave up in that trade.

Casey Kotchman's as a Braves player in 2009 versus Adam LaRoche as a Braves player in 2009:

Player	Games	Homeruns	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Casey Kotchman	87	6	41	.282	.354	.409
Adam LaRoche	57	12	40	.325	.401	.557

Unfortunately that was not enough to put the Braves in the post-season, but LaRoche was a major contributor to the excellent play of the team in the second half.

Here is a look at LaRoche's post-trade stats with the Braves compared to Mark Teixeira and Fred McGriff's post-trade stats in the year they were traded:

Player - Year	Games	Homeruns	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Fred McGriff - 1993	68	19	55	.310	.392	.612
Mark Teixeira - 2007	54	17	56	.317	.404	.615
Adam LaRoche - 2009	57	12	40	.325	.401	.557

He was not quite as much of a superhuman as the Crime Dog and Tex were, but he came mighty close. This begs the next question, which necessitates another chart, could Adam LaRoche keep this up for a full season?

Adam LaRoche's career stats...	Games	Homeruns	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
...before the All-Star break	464	63	242	.252	.326	.447
...after the All-Star break	374	73	227	.300	.363	.546

We all know this and it's true every single season he has been in the majors, he's better in the second half than he is in the first half. The Braves seem to want to keep LaRoche, and he may indeed want to stay in a Braves uniform. After all he has friends here and enjoys playing for Bobby Cox. Perhaps the one more year that Cox is going to manage will be enough to convince LaRoche to sign a one-year deal, that, and Chipper Jones constantly nagging him this off-season (they're hunting buddies, by the way).

For the Braves, LaRoche seems to be the best answer, even with his first and second half swings. If it takes a two-year deal to get him to come back, then that's a solid piece that would remain in the Braves lineup. But if he leaves, where does that leave Atlanta?

There are some other free agent first basemen who might take one-year contracts. Guys like Hank Blalock, Nick Johnson, and Russell Branyan, but none of them are ideal, and none offer quite the upside that LaRoche does. No other free agents really even come close to these four, and much like the closer market, the first basemen market is as lean as has been in years.

The Braves could use their mystery trade chip to acquire a first baseman, but do they want to trade a lot for a big time first base bat that may become obsolete once Freddie Freeman is ready. That question about Freeman raises some other questions. As I've said about our prospects all day in these top-5 questions, Freeman will also be playing in the Arizona Fall League, and while his time there will be watched just as closely as Heyward or Minor or Kimbrel, he is not expected to be major league ready next year. But will he be ready in 2011?

The Braves may choose to make their decision about first base in 2010 without considering Freeman's future. If they have to choose between signing LaRoche to a multi-year deal or plugging in a stop-gap and waiting for Freeman, they may choose to wrap up LaRoche and keep Freeman in the wings to complete his development, using him later on as a possible trade chip. Even with a three-year deal, Freeman would still only be 23 were he to debut in 2012.

The other internal candidates are not too exciting. Barbaro Canizares does not seem to be an everyday player, if he should even be considered a major leaguer. Martin Prado played plenty of first base, but he doesn't offer the power or middle of the order prowess that a first baseman should bring to the lineup.

I believe the Braves will certainly offer LaRoche arbitration, but the jury is still out on how aggressive they will be in re-signing him, especially for more than a one-year deal. I imagine we will get some indications early in the hot-stove season about the Braves intentions toward LaRoche, and we'll also get some intentions about whether LaRoche plans to test the free agent waters. LaRoche's decision may hinge more on the 2011 first base free agent class, which is a much deeper and talented class, than on anything else. If he signs a one-year deal, he may face much steeper competition next off-season. It is for this reason that I believe LaRoche will not return to Atlanta on a one-year deal. Now, that means he may be open to a multi-year deal, but that may not be in the Braves plans.

A lot of ifs at first base for the Braves this off-season. (Sorry if that went on for a while.)

Coming up later, Question Five: To Tender or to Non-Tender

Optional workout notes, Nick Green still "not good enough to play"

Randy Booth — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 18:10:43 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Nick Green talks to David Ortiz in the dugout after pitching the eighth and ninth innings of a baseball game against the Chicago White Sox at Fenway Park in Boston, Thursday, Aug. 27, 2009. The White Sox beat the Red Sox, 9-5. (AP Photo/Mary Schwalm)

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The Red Sox held an optional workout todayy before the team hopes the plane for a 3:15 p.m. flight to the West Coast:

The players in attendance here are Nick Green, Brian Anderson, Casey Kotchman, Jason Bay, Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Tim Wakefield, Jacoby Ellsbury, Billy Wagner, George Kottaras, Takashi Saito and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Green still is having difficulty with his back, though he said he was better, but "not good enough to play."

The rest of the team appears eager to get out of Boston and to Anaheim, Calif. They were simply playing out the string in the regular season, and now the true fun begins.

"This is kind of where it starts," Jason Bay said. "I think everyone's aware of that, but once we get to Anaheim, start working out, it will kick in a little bit more. But, yeah, you work your butt off from February to this point, ultimately on a game-to-game basis now."

Anyone want to take any bets if we're going to see Nick Green this postseason? I think it's a definite he won't be ready for the ALDS, but from the sounds of it, it looks like we won't see him at all for the rest of October. This means Jed Lowrie is the team's backup shortstop. Let's hope he is healthy enough, too.

Interview with ESPN Boston's Amy K. Nelson

Randy Booth — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 13:29:20 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

According to Amy K. Nelson, this guy is liked.

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I recently sent a set of questions to Amy K. Nelson, the new Red Sox beat writer for the brand-spankin' new ESPN Boston. She was kind enough to answer those questions for all of the great readers here at Over The Monster. Here's the Q&A:

1) First of all, how is it covering the Sox for the new ESPN Boston? What is the experience like for you? Has there been any challenges so far?

It's been very challenging but has also renewed my belief that a baseball beat is by far the most difficult to cover. Period. Not only is the travel brutal, but you have to arrive each day and try and come up with something different and creative to write (if you so choose). That is extremely difficult, and I have nothing but respect for my colleagues who do it every year. The biggest challenge is coming onto a beat when the season is almost over. I have not been following the team as closely as a beat guy would, and therefore don't have as much context and certainly not as many relationships established - an absolute must if you're going to be competitive on a beat. Luckily, I used to be based in Boston so that has helped me in some ways, but it's still a challenge.

2) Speaking of ESPN Boston, many people already think ESPN has an "east coast bias." This obviously isn't going to erase those thoughts. But what kind of things are we going to see from ESPN Boston that we wouldn't normally see from ESPN itself?

I think this is probably a better question for the bosses, but generally speaking, I believe the goal is to provide excellent local coverage on all the New England teams, just as any local outlet would (and obviously the goal would be to do it better.)

3) Are sportswriters starting to come around to the "SABR" way of using stats? If not, why do you think that is?

I saw my colleague Jerry Crasnick answer a question like this in a chat recently, and I think he nailed it: he peruses many of the SABR-friendly sites on a regular basis, but that doesn't mean that narrative and story telling should go by the wayside. If you've read my work before, I tend to be much more interested in the human element of the game than on the stats. It's just a personal preference; I'd rather write a story about the struggles of people like Rod Beck or Fred Lewis, or how everyone collided at that intersection the night Nick Adenhart died, than analyze them statistically. And that's not a knock on the SABR community at all. There's a reason why the BP guys are enormously successful at what they do and why colleague Keith Law has a crazy, intense and smart following - and not just because he's a foodie who's well-read (though I still say Cook's Illustrated is great; he's not a fan).

4) Now to the Red Sox: the Sox have obviously benefited from acquiring Alex Gonzalez. Although historically his bat has been nothing special and his defense has declined over the years, what's the feedback from the front office, Tito and his teammates regarding what he's brought to the team?

Look for more on that from me in the near future, but I will tell you that it seems this guy has always had a quiet efficiency; he's not one of the top shortstops who come to mind when you think of the position defensively, but current and past teammates have effusive praise for him. His acquisition could wind up being a very key one if they Red Sox go deep into the playoffs (and it's already paid big dividends).

5) Billy Wagner has been very good for the Sox. His time on the mound is limited, but do you expect the Sox to use him more in the postseason, if need be? Do you think the Sox would be hesitant to use him in a one-run setup situation?

I know Wagner wants to pitch on back-to-back days if he could, but they simply will not allow him. As of right now, I think they are going to keep it pretty conservative with him, and unless there are bullpens issues that blow up over the next two weeks, they will stick with their plan. I know Wagner wants to push it, but that is just his personality; you can certainly understand, it's a natural thing for him to want to ramp it up.

6) What do you expect the catching/first base/third base situation to look like next year?

The catching situation should be Victor Martinez as a mostly full-time catcher; you can see how quickly they have integrated him into the staff, and there's even a possibility he will catch Beckett before the year is out, though not a guarantee.

7) Clay Buchholz looks like he's finally -- well, Clay Buchholz. He's been great for a couple of months now. Do you think he'll be able to continue this success through the postseason?

Angels manager Mike Scioscia said the biggest difference he's seen in Buchholz is his confidence. Orioles manager Dave Trembley said it was his ability to command the zone, especially with the fastball. If Buchholz is able to continue with this consistency and obviously command the zone, he will be effective. But you never know how a young player will react once he reaches the postseason. Working with Victor Martinez has been huge for him. I spoke to him at Yankee stadium over a month ago, when Martinez had only caught him twice, and he was already raving then about the battery and his comfort level with Martinez.

8) If the Sox make the playoffs (I still have to throw that "if" in there), are there any players that could be on the fringe for making the 25-man roster for the ALDS? Where does a guy like Casey Kotchman or Nick Green fit in?

Look for me to address this soon, but as we know, Nick Green's status is questionable. I'm not sure if this couldn't be something more serious...

9) Who will be the left fielder for the Red Sox next season? Will Jason Bay be back, or is a player like Matt Holliday due for Boston?

I think most everyone in that clubhouse thinks the Red Sox are crazy if they don't bring back Bay. He is universally liked and respected, with many players calling him their MVP.

10) What are your predictions for this year's AL Cy Young and AL MVP?

Greinke and Mauer.

Be sure to check out Amy's ESPN blog and make sure to follow Amy on Twitter @amyknelson. (I follow her -- her tweets are top-notch, if I say so myself. Oh, and she's a "Mad Men" fan -- that makes her No. 1 in my book.)