SB Nation - Jason Bartlett

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

View full size photo »

As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.

What Can Be Learned From the AL MVP Voting?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 15:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

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On Monday afternoon, I fully expect Joe Mauer to win his first MVP award after finishing sixth in 2006 and fourth last year. Joe led the AL in batting average while hitting for respectable power (28 HRs) in only 138 games, most of which were as a catcher. He led the Twins into the postseason after they trailed by three games with only four games left, thereby forcing and winning a playoff game with Detroit.

Other than Mauer winning, I expect Mark Teixeria to finish high in the voting after leading the league in HRs and RBIs (categories that have traditionally been important to voters). I also expect Derek Jeter to finish high even though he doesn't have great traditional stats this season (.334 AVG, 18 HR and 107 runs scored). He did have one of his best years with a 7.4 WAR value, his highest since Fangraphs began keeping track and his third-highest total when compared to Rally's WAR ranking.

Truthfully, I have no problem giving the award to Mauer. He had a great season and helped the Twins to the playoffs. The real question with today's vote, to me anyway, is where do Zack Greinke and Ben Zobrist end up in the rankings?

Using WAR values as a guide, both Zack (9.4 WAR) and Ben (8.6 WAR) had a better season than Joe (8.4 WAR). The problem is that the mainstream media is barely touting if at all Greinke or Zobrist. Going to MLB.com, Zack gets an honorable mention while Ben gets no mention (though four of Ben's teammates got mentioned: Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena). At cbssportsline.com and USAToday.com they have no mention of either Greinke or Zobrist.

Two groups of internet voters have released their results. SBN, our parent website, had a vote and Zack came in sixth overall, while Ben came in second. When the Internet Baseball Awards released their results, Zack came in fourth and Ben came in sixth. I really don't expect either of these players to finish as that high in the final votes with the BBWAA, even though no two players in the AL did more to help their team win games this last season.

Let's look at how Zack and Ben final voting placement can say something about the makeup and thought process of the BBWAA.

Zack Greinke - Do pitchers even matter in the MVP voting?

Here is a little background on how pitchers have done in the MVP voting:

Since 1956, when the Cy Young Award was created, a pitcher has won the MVP Award 8 times or 8% percent of the time. Before the Cy Young was created, pitchers won the award about 1 in 5 times (19%).
The last pitcher to win the MVP was Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
Since 1992, the average final position for the top pitcher vote getter is 8.4, with Pedro Martinez about winning the award in 1999 by finishing with only 3% less vote than Ivan Rodriguez.

There is not much precedent for MVP voters voting for pitchers, especially ones with 16-8 records. The average finish of the top pitcher in the MVP voting has been between the 8th and 9th spot, so this makes a good dividing line to see if the writers noticed Zack's great season (despite the horrible defense and run support he had all season). Zack had the 31st highest ranked season ever in ERA+ with 205, which is the highest total since 2003 when Pedro Martinez finished with an ERA+ of 210.

If Zack finishes eighth or higher, hats off to the voters. If ninth or lower, shame on voters.

Ben Zobrist - Do name familiarity and defense matter in the MVP voting?

Before the season, many people were familiar with the final MVP candidates, but few were familiar with Ben, and the few that knew of him didn't expect great production. Offensively, his 2009 season was nothing to laugh about (9th in the AL in Runs Created), but his defense is where he separated himself from the others for the top WAR values for positional players. He had a UZR rating of 26.4 which was good for 2nd best among all position players in the AL.

The question is, "Will any of this production really matter." Even though the Internet voters gave Ben quite a bit of love, I can see the BBWAA giving him a cold shoulder. I would be surprised to see him break the top 10. I really want to see the percentage of voters that put him in their top 5. This will give a nice understanding of the percentage of voters that look at and use WAR (or similar metrics) to compare players. If the percentage of voters that put Ben in the top 5 is above 10%, I will be amazingly surprised.

---

The award season for MLB is a nice time to look back at the the players that had a great season. The problem is that sometimes players that should receive recognition don't.

The Rays and The Rule 5 Draft

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:30:13 -0000

The front office will undoubtedly be faced with many tough decisions this winter. We've discussed many of them; Crawford, the catcher situation, whether or not to trade Bartlett, etc. One decision that won't be so tough is deciding which players to put on the 40 man roster, the deadline for which is Friday.

Currently the Rays have three open spots on their 40 man roster, with another one possible since Jeff Bennett is not likely to remain with the team. There's no question that two of the roster spots will go to Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, two of the top prospects in the organization, and baseball in general. As RJ noted a couple of months ago, the third spot will probably go to Aneury Rodriguez, the young reliever the Rays received in the Jason Hammel trade. The remaining roster spot, assuming Jeff Bennett isn't still around, will likely remain open to leave room for any player the team selects in the Rule 5 draft.

The organization has done many things right over the last few seasons, but Rule 5 draft has been one they have yet to figure out, though in their defense not many teams do. Here is a list of the Rays Rule 5 draft picks since 2006:

2006: Ryan Goleski

Goleski was selected first overall by the Rays, but would not stick around long and was sent back to Cleveland. After a .249/.333/.429 season in 2008 he would be out of baseball at 26 years old. The 2006 draft was the one that saw Josh Hamilton be claimed by the Reds after being left unprotected by the Rays. Also, Joakim Soria was selected second overall. He's ended up doing pretty well for himself.

2007: Tim Lehay

Once again the Rays would have the first selection, this time taking Tim Lahey. The 6'4 inch right hander would be a quick out; The Rays sold him to the Twins for cash considerations. No other players of note were taken in 2007.

2008: Derek Rodriguez

Upon the success of the 2008 season the Rays were finally not awarded the first pick. Instead they selected 19th and chose reliever Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox. Rodriguez would struggle in the spring and would be sold back to the White Sox for $25k. In this draft the Rays would unexpectedly lose reliever Eduardo Morlan, who they had acquired along with Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in the Delmon Young trade, to the Brewers. However, Morlan would not make the Brewers roster and was sold back to the Rays for $25k, offsetting the cost of the Rodriguez deal.

As you can see, the Rule 5 draft has not been a very fruitful endeavor for the Rays in recent seasons, but that's ok. Getting lucky enough to draft a Johan Santana or Joakim Soria is fine and dandy , but protecting immense talents like Jennings and Hellickson far out weighs any player the Rays may select.

An Interview with Rob Neyer

Erik Hahmann — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:00:41 -0000

Throughout the offseson we'll be bringing you interviews with some of today's best and brightest baseball writers. On this Friday we're lucky enough to be joined once again by Espn.com writer, author, and long suffering Royals fan, Rob Neyer. You know Rob from his SweetSpot blog on espn and the numerous books he's written on baseball and it's fascinating history He was gracious enough to take time out of his busy schedule to talk a little Rays basebal with us:

DRB: A simple question with a not so simple answer: What should the Rays do with Carl Crawford, trade him and take the prospects, let him walk and take the draft picks, or re-sign him?

Rob Neyer: He's obviously a valuable player, if less than a superstar. It's clear (at least to me) that the Rays have to trade him, so then the question becomes when. It's really up to Andrew Friedman to figure out if he'll get the greatest return this winter, or next summer. Of course, a complicating factor is that if you wait until next summer, you might be in contention (of sorts) and if you're contending it's almost impossible to trade a player like Crawford.

DRB: The Rays esentially used J.P. Howell as their closer last season even though the current regime hasn't followed the traditional "closer" philosophy. What do you think his role should be next season? The full time closer? Or would it be beneficial to let him roam free in the bullpen and use a closer by committee?

RN: I think Joe Maddon should be heartily encouraged to engage his mind and be even more creative than he's been. Maddon has done some interesting things with his relievers, but I get the sense that he's having trouble resisting the pull back to the dull middle.

DRB: In 2009 Jason Bartlett enjoyed one of the more surprising seasons in recent memory and has turned into a huge fan favorite in the area. Those who expect another season like that are wildly unrealistic. With young players like Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez, should the Rays move him while his value is at its absolute peak?

RN: That would take some real guts, huh? What makes the decision even more difficult is just how out of character Bartlett's season was. Just two years ago, he was your prototypical good-field/no-hit shortstop, no different from a dozen other guys kicking around the majors (some of them without every-day jobs). Now, he suddenly explodes with brilliant hitting stats ... and at the same time, his defensive numbers go in the tank? What do you do with a guy like that? The "problem" with trading Bartlett is that if the Rays start shopping him around, the other clubs might wonder what the Rays know about Bartlett that they don't. So I suspect that if they're even entertaining the notion, they should let the other clubs come to them. You know, sort of like this ... "You want Bartlett? Gosh, we couldn't possibly let him go ... unless you really, really want him, in which case we might be able to work something out." Anyway, you get the idea. Short answer: Yes, if the Rays can get a couple of good players for Bartlett, they should probably do it.

DRB: Many fans and media alike felt the trade of Scott Kazmir was the Rays version of waving a white flag and the cause of the September swoon. What did you think of the timing of the deal?

RN: I think the Rays made that deal when they did because 1) it was by then apparent that the Rays weren't going to catch the Red Sox, and 2) the Angels made them an offer they couldn't refuse. I know it's hard for the fans to see a longtime Ray like Kazmir get away, but I don't suppose they need me to remind them that Wade Davis pitched quite well after taking Kazmir's spot in the rotation. The Rays may lack an obvious 2010 Cy Young candidate, but otherwise their rotation going forward is just about as deep as anybody's.

DRB: B.J. Upton's lackluster season has had people calling for the young centerfielder's head. Upton is still young and there's no reason he cannot be the same player he was in 2007, or even 2008 for that matter. What do you think the key will be for Upton rebounding in 2010?

RN: No reason? There must be some reason. Whatever reason caused his batting stats to plummet from 2007 to 2009 might still be there, in which case I wouldn't expect much of him in 2010. But he's cheap enough and plays well enough in center field that he's still a fantastic value relative to his salary, even if he plays again like he did this year. Throw in the obvious upside -- there might still be an MVP candidate in there somewhere -- and unless somebody blows you away with a trade offer, you just keep playing him.

DRB: The production the Rays got out of the catcher position last season was less than optimal. Dioner Navarro did not have nearly the same success as he had in 2008, though he wasn't helped at all by a BABiP of .233. Should the Rays stick with Navarro behind the dish, or look for help elsewhere?

RN: "Less than optimal" is putting it kindly. When you have to trade for Gregg Zaun in August, you're probably in trouble. Navarro's struggles this season were roughly as inexplicable as Upton's. I don't know how much Navarro's elbow was hurting him, but any time a previously decent hitter is this awful, I typically wonder if he's been both unhealthy and unlucky, and this seems to have been the case with Navarro. Considering how well he played in 2008 -- granted, he was probably over his head -- I think if the doctors say he's healthy this winter you assign him 130 games and hope for the best.

DRB: Pat Burrell didn't exactly light the world on fire in his first season in the American League. Do you think it was due to him adjusting to a different, and tougher, league? Or are his struggles due to a rapidly declining skill set?

RN: Well, again, I just think he wasn't healthy enough to play well. Granted, going from the National League to the American League and from Philadelphia's ballpark to Tampa Bay's probably didn't help much, either. I thought signing Burrell last winter was a nice (relatively) low-cost move, so I suppose I'm predisposed toward giving him another chance.

DRB: Carl Crawford again finished first in the left field portion of the Fielding Bible Awards. Is this the season he finally wins a gold glove? And if so, how much effect do you think his All-Star Game catch will have on it? [Editor's Note: This question was asked before the results were out]

RN: He is obviously a center fielder playing left field, but as you know it's awfully hard for a left fielder to win a Gold Glove. Barry Bonds won eight of them, thanks largely to his bat. Otherwise, I believe that Darin Erstad is the only left fielder in the last 25 years to win one. So Crawford's swimming against an awfully strong tide.

DRB: If you were in charge of the Rays for one day, what changes would you make? Roster or otherwise.

RN: Honestly, the Rays seem to be so well-run that I feel even more presumptuous than usual. But, if you insist ... Gabe Gross simply isn't good enough to play regularly or even semi-regularly, as he did this year. Apparently Gross will essentially be replaced by Matt Joyce next season, which of course is the obvious (and best) move. And it seems that Desmond Jennings is ready to play for the big club, too. I don't have any information about Joyce's defense at hand, but perhaps Jennings as the every-day right fielder and Joyce in a DH platoon with Burrell if the Rays can't trade him? There's a great deal of talent in this organization, and if the management can get nearly all of it on the field, I don't see why this team can't get back into serious contention for the playoffs.

DRB: What's upcoming/new in the land of Neyer?

RN: Well, two things, one of which I can talk about and one of which I cannot ... This off-season we're expanding the SweetSpot Blog Network, and by next April we hope to have blogs in place for all 30 teams. I see that you are already spoken for, but fortunately there are some other solid Rays blogs out there. And the other thing ... Well, I'm crazy-excited about it, because nothing makes me happier than being associated with good work, and any day now my name will be attached to some of the best baseball analysis that's ever been done. But I'm afraid I can't say anything more until the press release is ready, which should be any minute now ...

On behalf of everyone at DRaysBay I'd like to thank Rob for taking the time to join us today. I know we're all excited to find out more about this secret project of his. Be sure to check out his blog on espn.com and this holiday season but sure to pick up one of his books for that special someone in your life. They make a great stocking stuffer, or so I hear. You can also follow him on twitter @robneyer.

SB Nation Awards: 2009 American League MVP

Jesse — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:50:09 -0000

Scioscia...Andrus...Greinke...and looky looky who completes the puzzle!

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Joe Mauer	Minnesota Twins	24	3	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	371
2	Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay Rays	-	10	6	2	2	1	-	1	-	-	172
3	Mark Teixeira	New York Yankees	2	3	2	4	3	2	7	1	-	-	158
4	Derek Jeter	New York Yankees	1	5	3	4	4	2	1	1	2	1	157
5	Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay Rays	-	2	4	1	2	3	2	3	2	1	106
6	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	2	3	2	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	92
7	Miguel Cabrera	Detroit Tigers	-	-	3	1	2	4	-	2	-	5	74
8	Kevin Youkilis	Boston Red Sox	-	2	-	-	1	3	1	8	1	-	69
9	Chone Figgins	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	3	4	1	-	1	3	1	60
10	Jason Bay	Boston Red Sox	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	1	-	2	54
11	Kendry Morales	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	4	-	-	1	-	-	1	-	39
12	Ichiro Suzuki	Seattle Mariners	-	-	1	-	2	-	1	2	2	3	37
13	Franklin Gutierrez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	1	1	1	3	-	1	2	34
14	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	-	1	1	32
15	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	3	2	-	31
16	Jason Bartlett	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	-	1	22
17	Alex Rodriguez	New York Yankees	-	-	1	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	18
18	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	16
19	Adam Lind	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	4	16
20	Dustin Pedroia	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	1	13
21	Bobby Abreu	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	12
22	Aaron Hill	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	12
23	Mariano Rivera	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	9
24	Torii Hunter	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8
25	Brian Roberts	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	7
26	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	6
27	Carl Crawford	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
28	J.D. Drew	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
29	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
30	Jonathan Papelbon	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
31	Robinson Cano	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
32	Victor Martinez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
33	Michael Cuddyer	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
34	Shin-Soo Choo	Cleveland Indians	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
35	Michael Young	Texas Rangers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
36	Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
37	Jason Kubel	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
38	Alex Gonzalez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
39	Nick Markakis	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

YES! Clearly there were five people who weren't watching the same baseball season as everyone else, but look at that point differential between first and second place. And nobody voted Joe lower than third place, so kudos to all voting parties for that.

Having to vote for ten candidates means this is a pretty large chart with a lot of stragglers, and after Mauer I can't honestly remember who I voted for. I know I voted for one of Cuddyer and Kubel, although I can't promise full homerism by saying I voted for both. Still, I'm positive that Longoria, Cabrera, Zobrist, Jeter and Youkilis were in there somewhere.

The only two AL teams not represented on this list? Oakland and Chicago.

Poll

Who gets your vote for American League MVP?

Joe Mauer

370 votes

370 votes | Poll has closed

Prince Fielder finishes fourth in SBN NL MVP Voting

KLSnow — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 17:00:38 -0000

The SB Nation Most Valuable Player voting was unveiled today. Here are the NL results:

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

Here was my ballot:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Prince Fielder
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Chase Utley
5. Hanley Ramirez
6. Ryan Zimmerman
7. Troy Tulowitzki
8. Matt Kemp
9. Javier Vazquez
10. Adrian Gonzalez

Follow the jump for the AL results.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Joe Mauer	Minnesota Twins	24	3	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	371
2	Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay Rays	-	10	6	2	2	1	-	1	-	-	172
3	Mark Teixeira	New York Yankees	2	3	2	4	3	2	7	1	-	-	158
4	Derek Jeter	New York Yankees	1	5	3	4	4	2	1	1	2	1	157
5	Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay Rays	-	2	4	1	2	3	2	3	2	1	106
6	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	2	3	2	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	92
7	Miguel Cabrera	Detroit Tigers	-	-	3	1	2	4	-	2	-	5	74
8	Kevin Youkilis	Boston Red Sox	-	2	-	-	1	3	1	8	1	-	69
9	Chone Figgins	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	3	4	1	-	1	3	1	60
10	Jason Bay	Boston Red Sox	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	1	-	2	54
11	Kendry Morales	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	4	-	-	1	-	-	1	-	39
12	Ichiro Suzuki	Seattle Mariners	-	-	1	-	2	-	1	2	2	3	37
13	Franklin Gutierrez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	1	1	1	3	-	1	2	34
14	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	-	1	1	32
15	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	3	2	-	31
16	Jason Bartlett	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	-	1	22
17	Alex Rodriguez	New York Yankees	-	-	1	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	18
18	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	16
19	Adam Lind	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	4	16
20	Dustin Pedroia	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	1	13
21	Bobby Abreu	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	12
22	Aaron Hill	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	12
23	Mariano Rivera	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	9
24	Torii Hunter	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8
25	Brian Roberts	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	7
26	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	6
27	Carl Crawford	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
28	J.D. Drew	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
29	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
30	Jonathan Papelbon	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
31	Robinson Cano	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
32	Victor Martinez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
33	Michael Cuddyer	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
34	Shin-Soo Choo	Cleveland Indians	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
35	Michael Young	Texas Rangers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
36	Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
37	Jason Kubel	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
38	Alex Gonzalez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
39	Nick Markakis	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

2009 SBNation Awards: MVP

Al — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Mike Fontenot after a forceout of Albert Pujols in April at Wrigley Field.

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No surprises here, at least not for me. I expected Albert Pujols to be the unanimous MVP among SBN voters, and he was.

The AL winner is the guy I would have chosen; you may be a bit surprised at the second-place finisher.

Points for MVP are awarded as follows: 14 points for a first-place vote, then 9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 for 2nd through 10th place.

BCB ballots:

Al: 1) Albert Pujols 2) Ryan Howard 3) Prince Fielder 4) Chase Utley 
5) Pablo Sandoval 6) Adrian Gonzalez 7) Hanley Ramirez 
8) Troy Tulowitzki 9) Derrek Lee 10) Adam Dunn

Mike: 1) Albert Pujols 2) Ryan Howard 3) Hanley Ramirez 4) Troy Tulowitzki 
5) Prince Fielder 6) Tim Lincecum 7) Chase Utley 
8) Adam Wainwright 9) Raul Ibanez 10) Mark Reynolds

National League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

American League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Joe Mauer	Minnesota Twins	24	3	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	371
2	Ben Zobrist	Tampa Bay Rays	-	10	6	2	2	1	-	1	-	-	172
3	Mark Teixeira	New York Yankees	2	3	2	4	3	2	7	1	-	-	158
4	Derek Jeter	New York Yankees	1	5	3	4	4	2	1	1	2	1	157
5	Evan Longoria	Tampa Bay Rays	-	2	4	1	2	3	2	3	2	1	106
6	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	2	3	2	1	1	-	2	-	-	-	92
7	Miguel Cabrera	Detroit Tigers	-	-	3	1	2	4	-	2	-	5	74
8	Kevin Youkilis	Boston Red Sox	-	2	-	-	1	3	1	8	1	-	69
9	Chone Figgins	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	3	4	1	-	1	3	1	60
10	Jason Bay	Boston Red Sox	-	1	-	4	2	-	-	1	-	2	54
11	Kendry Morales	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	4	-	-	1	-	-	1	-	39
12	Ichiro Suzuki	Seattle Mariners	-	-	1	-	2	-	1	2	2	3	37
13	Franklin Gutierrez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	1	1	1	3	-	1	2	34
14	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	-	-	2	1	1	1	-	1	1	32
15	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	3	2	-	31
16	Jason Bartlett	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	-	-	1	22
17	Alex Rodriguez	New York Yankees	-	-	1	-	1	-	1	-	-	-	18
18	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	1	-	1	1	-	-	-	16
19	Adam Lind	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	1	4	16
20	Dustin Pedroia	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	4	1	13
21	Bobby Abreu	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	-	12
22	Aaron Hill	Toronto Blue Jays	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	-	-	12
23	Mariano Rivera	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	1	9
24	Torii Hunter	Los Angeles Angels	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8
25	Brian Roberts	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	-	-	7
26	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	-	6
27	Carl Crawford	Tampa Bay Rays	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
28	J.D. Drew	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
29	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
30	Jonathan Papelbon	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
31	Robinson Cano	New York Yankees	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
32	Victor Martinez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	5
33	Michael Cuddyer	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
34	Shin-Soo Choo	Cleveland Indians	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
35	Michael Young	Texas Rangers	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	3
36	Jacoby Ellsbury	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
37	Jason Kubel	Minnesota Twins	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
38	Alex Gonzalez	Boston Red Sox	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
39	Nick Markakis	Baltimore Orioles	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

Tampa Bay Rays Continue To Buck Trends And Set New Ones; Market Exploitation 101

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:00:30 -0000

It is no secret that the Tampa Bay Rays are never going to be major spenders in the free agent market like their AL East Rivals, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. Instead, this team is built on, and will continue to be built on, things like: the amateur draft, international signings and development, shrewd free agent signings, and the occasional risky trade. In the Andrew Friedman era we've seen examples of nearly all of these scenarios; the drafting of Evan Longoria, the signing of Akinori Iwamura, the signing of Carlos Pena, and the Delmon Young/Scott Kazmir trades just to name a few.

Much to our collective chagrin, not all of the Rays moves are going to work as planned. For every Pena, there will be a Hee Sop Choi. For every Matt Garza and Ben Zobrist trade there will be deals like the ones involving Dioner Navarro and Edwin Jackson that don't exactly work as hoped. To be successful, the Rays not only need to follow the good process practice, but they must also excel in spotting market inefficiencies and exploiting them fully.

After the 2007 season the Rays made a conscious effort to improve their defense. They sought out cheap and effective defenders (Jason Bartlett, Gabe Gross) and built an American League Championship team around it. Defense has always been an important part of the game, but after seeing the Rays blueprint for success, many other teams went into 2009 looking for that same success.

Teams like the Mariners(trading Yuniesky Betancourt and replacing him with Jack Wilson as well as acquiring Franklin Gutierrez), Rangers (moving Michael Young for Elvis Andrus) and the Tigers (Adam Everett, Gerald Laird) all improved their defense and their win totals. In many ways because of the Rays success defense became the new version of Moneyball. This past off-season, teams shied away from offense only players and looked for a more readily available and cheap asset that can be found in a variety of places. However, defense isn't the only efficiency the Rays have tried to recently exploit.

In 2007, the Rays took a shot on a rehabbing Al Reyes and in return received a solid season from the oft-injured veteran. It was no surprise when Reyes flamed out in 2008, but he gave the Rays more production than any of us could've imagined. Also in 2007, the Rays traded for another oft-injured reliever in Grant Balfour, who had been placed on a few scrap heaps before landing with Tampa Bay. The Rays gambled on Seth McClung's potential in favor of Balfour's. In 2008, Balfour exceeded everyone's expectations and was a top three reliever in the American League; in 2009, he regressed to the top 15 or 20. Of course, there are names like Joe Nelson and Jason Isringhausen that didn't work out as well, however, the process was and still is good. We should all expect the Rays to continue dabbling in the injured reliever market in hopes of finding that next diamond in the rough.

The Rays were used to selecting at the top of the draft before 2009. Under the current regime we've added Evan Longoria, David Price and Tim Beckham at the top of the draft board. However, in 2009 the Rays were faced with a lower draft pick for the first time in franchise history. While it was never publicly acknowledged, the Rays seemed to target "toolsy," but injured players, especially in the beginning of the draft. With their first four picks they selected four injured prep stars. Once again, the plan didn't work perfectly as the projected easy sign, Levon Washington is set to play at a junior college and Kenny Diekroeger stayed committed to Stanford. However, third round selection, Todd Glaesmann, is projected to be an above average center fielder or corner outfielder. Meanwhile fourth round pick, Luke Bailey, may be the most talented catcher in the draft. The Rays will have to wait a bit longer, especially in the case of Bailey, who already faces an uphill battle as a catching prospect, but if all goes well the Rays will have secured a few first round talents without handing out a seven figure bonus to any draft pick.

Yesterday, the Rays may have uncovered another market inefficiency by executing the first "sign and trade" that we've seen in recent baseball history; trading Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez. As far as the trade goes, in a vacuum it's win for the Pirates. They get a three-win second basemen, who is signed for the 2010 season at well below market value. However, when you take the deal in context, Iwamura's days with the Rays were in the single digits no matter how you look at it and they were able to get something with everybody knowing that.

In actuality, it's a win-win for both parties. The Pirates get that three-win second basemen and the Rays are basically getting something for nothing. Once again, Aki is a fine player and worth every penny of the $4.85 million dollar salary, but the Rays have better and cheaper options in Ben Zobrist, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac and Willy Aybar, who in total will make less than Iwamura in 2010. In return for a player that had as good of a chance as you or I playing for the Rays in 2010, they get a 26 year-old relief pitcher who projects to be at least an average middle reliever. Jesse Chavez is young, has had major league success and most importantly is cheap and controllable(with options).

I don't expect this sort of deal to become the norm in baseball because the system is not set up for many of these trade opportunities like the NBA. However, the Rays surveyed their limited options, and were able to trade a player who they had no use for and still get a Major League ready chip in return. They also save themselves the money it would've cause to buy out Iwamura's option.

Chavez may turn out to be nothing more than an average reliever and that's alright. He is under team control for five years and could fill a variety of roles for the Rays. If the worst case scenario plays out and Chavez is deemed a "bust," then all the Rays would have lost is time and patience. The deal from a talent prospective isn't extremely impressive, but the Rays finding yet another way to acquire useful talent without using a lot of resources is very.

All Ex-Twins Team, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:09:33 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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2008 Roster
2006 Roster

For the second year in a row I tried to put together a full 25-man roster, and while I made the cut this team has some pretty big holes. Generally it's old, which is surprising, and there's going to be some pretty bad defense in places, but if any of the three outfielders get hurt there's nobody to be a fourth outfielder. Luckily, none of the guys on this team have to play a single game.

Without further ado, your batting order:

Name	Pos	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	'09 Team	With Twins
Jason Bartlett	SS	.320	.389	.490	14	66	Rays	'04 - '07
Luis Castillo	2B	.302	.387	.346	1	40	Mets	'06 - '07
Garrett Jones	RF	.293	.372	.567	21	44	Pirates	2007
Torii Hunter	CF	.299	.366	.508	22	90	Angels	'97 - '07
Casey Blake	3B	.280	.363	.468	18	79	Dodgers	'00 - '02
Randy Ruiz	1B	.313	.385	.635	10	17	Blue Jays	2008
David Ortiz	DH	.238	.332	.462	28	99	Red Sox	'97 - '02
A.J. Pierzynski	C	.300	.331	.425	13	49	White Sox	'98 - '03
Craig Monroe	LF	.215	.287	.354	3	16	Pirates	2008

All in all that's not a bad offensive lineup. According to Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, this offense would blow last year's out of the water: 5.741 runs per game, or about 930 runs over the course of a full season. Even with Jones and Monroe being stone defenders in the outfield corners, those runs are going to make up the difference.

The tool also insists that all of the best lineups would have Monroe hitting 8th and Castillo 9th, while a vast majority of the best lineups still have Bartlett leading off, but they also have Ruiz batting cleanup with his massive OBP and SLG in limited time.

Your bench? Outfielder-less. Henry Blanco of the Pirates is your catcher, followed by a trio of infielders: Cristian Guzman (Nationals), Adam Everett (Tigers) and Juan Castro (Dodgers).

Next up? Your starting rotation:

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
Johan Santana	13-9	3.13	166.2	146	46	Mets	'00 - '07
Matt Garza	8-12	3.95	203.0	189	79	Rays	'06 - '07
Kyle Lohse	6-10	4.74	117.2	77	36	Cardinals	'01 - '06
Livan Hernandez	9-12	5.44	183.2	102	67	Mets/Nationals	2008
Sidney Ponson	1-7	7.36	58.2	32	25	Royals	2007

I want you to know that I seriously considered going with a three-man rotation, a three-man bench, and then having a nine-man bullpen, but the reality is that even the bullpen pickings get a little thin once you get six or seven deep. As far as other starters I could have considered, there aren't many guys out there right now. Carlos Silva? Absolutely not.

Last season saw Santana, Lohse and Garza as the top three in the rotation as well. Moving onto the bullpen, last year I had Balfour closing, but this season I'd probably tab Hawkins.

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
LaTroy Hawkins	1-4	2.13	63.1	45	16	Astros	'95 - '03
Craig Breslow	7-5	2.60	55.1	44	18	Athletics	'08 - '09
J.C. Romero	0-0	2.70	16.2	12	13	Phillies	'99 - '05
Joe Beimel	1-6	3.58	55.1	35	19	Nationals/Rockies	2004
Grant Balfour	5-4	4.81	67.1	69	33	Rays	'01 - '04
Eddie Guardado	1-2	4.46	38.1	20	15	Rangers	'93 - '03, '08

Even in limited time, Romero is still managing to escape at least the appearance of damage in spite of some unnerving peripherals. Like the bench and the back of the rotation, this one of this team's weaker spots.

If injuries weren't a factor, how would this team fare over a season? Would an offense like this be able to keep this team afloat with the help of a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation? Or would those unproven bats pair up with some older arms to bring the team's fortunes crashing to earth?

Guys who have made the team each of the three years: Pierzynski, Blake, Ortiz, Beimel, Romero and Hawkins.

Poll

How would this team fare?

They could compete for a division title

169 votes

Probably a .500 team

322 votes

Bottom dwellers, for sure

181 votes

672 votes | Poll has closed

The Rays' 2010 Payroll: Where do we stand right now?

Steve Slowinski — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 11:15:10 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

MVB stands to get quite the raise this off-season. (AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)

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With the off-season hot stove already warming up, the question looming in the forefront of most fans' minds is, "How active is my team going to be this off-season?" We've already started discussing potential bullpen targets that the Rays may have (Joaquin Benoit, Kiko Calero, and Kelvim Escobar), but really, how active should we expect the Rays to be this winter? Andrew Friedman has been quite active during each of the past two off-seasons, with the Rays appearing in many rumors and completing multiple trades and signings, and I fully expect this trend to continue. Remaining an all-star caliber player requires constant adjustment and adaptation, and the same goes on a larger scale with franchises.

That said, where can we expect the changes with the Rays to occur this off-season? Friedman and the Rays' front office typically plays very close to the chest, but we can make some educated guesses based on our salary obligations for next season. What is our payroll looking like for 2010? Will we need to shed payroll or can we expect to increase it? Let's break it down by roster spots: the rotation, the bullpen, the lineup, and the bench.

Rotation	Millions
Shields	$2.50
Garza	Arb1
Niemann	$1.29
Price	$1.93
Davis	$0.43

Bullpen	Millions
Howell	Arb1
Balfour	Arb3
Wheeler	$3.50
Cormier	Arb2
Sonnanstine	$0.43
Choate	$0.43
(Thayer?)	$0.43

Lineup	Millions
Navarro	Arb2
Pena	$10.25
Zobrist	$0.43
Bartlett	Arb2
Longoria	$0.95
Crawford	$8.25
Upton	Arb1
Joyce	$0.43
Burrell	$9.00

Bench	Millions
Zaun	$2.00
Aybar	$1.35
Rodriguez	$0.43
Perez	$0.43

Keep in mind, this is merely a look at the Rays current salary obligations for 2010. I filled in some likely moves - promoting Joyce and Rodriguez, declining Aki's option, and keeping Davis in the rotation - to round out the 25 man roster, so we can get an idea of what our payroll for 2010 would look like if the season were to start today. Any moves the Rays could do (like signing Kapler for a bench spot instead of Perez or signing extra relief pitchers), would mean substituting those players and their salaries in for someone else here.

You may have noticed that the Rays have 7 players eligible for arbitration this year, which makes it rather tough to determine where our payroll stands at the moment. Discounting them, the Rays payroll for 2010 currently stands at around $51M, but those seven players include some pretty big names that could receive significant pay increases.

To estimate what these arbitration hearings will cost the Rays, I took the last season wins above replacement (WAR) for each of these seven players. If each player were to be paid fair-market value for the performance this past season, they would get about $4.3M per WAR; however, arbitration hearings typically still underpay players based on their performance. On average, players in their first year of arbitration get paid 40% of their value, players in their second year get paid 60%, and players in their third year get paid 80%. Using these breakdowns, we get 2010 salaries that look something like this:

Players	Millions
Garza	$6.12
Navarro	$1.89
Bartlett	$12.96
Upton	$4.86
Howell	$1.98
Balfour	$3.24
Cormier	$1.35

Obviously, this is an imperfect system for estimating, but it's a good starting block. Arbitration hearings are not based on WAR, but instead tend to rely on more traditional statistics like BA, HRs, RBIs, ERA, Wins, etc, so you can expect Garza's salary to be less than $6M and Upton's less than $5M. Also, I couldn't exactly give Navarro a negative salary (although he should have to pay the Rays for his performance this past season), so I estimated his hearing at 10% less than he received this past season. Howell, Balfour, and Cormier seem about right, although Howell might get a little more for the "closer" premium.

That leaves us with the very interesting case of Jason Bartlett. Will he most likely receive a salary this high for next season? No, I think $13M is quite an over-estimate, but Bartlett is due for a significant pay raise this off-season. Considering he signed for $2M last season, $4-6M certainly isn't out of the question. For comparison, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, and Hanley Ramirez received around $4-6M for their Arb2 years, although they had all signed long-term deals by that time. I'm not saying Bartlett is in their class, but Bartlett has been praised quite heavily these past two years and he's got some solid numbers from 2009 to back him up. He's going to be quite pricey.

Conclusion

So if you put all of these sections together, including the arbitration estimates (and scaling Bartlett down to $6M), we get a final budget of $69.9M. This puts us right about where our payroll started off this past season. In other words, even though we shed some big contracts recently (Percy, Kazmir, Bradford, and in this hypothetical case, Aki), salary escalations for certain players (Pena, Crawford, and Burrell most notably) and arbitration hearings don't leave our franchise with much budget room. Maybe the Rays were planning on expanding payroll again this off-season, but the odds on this happening are pretty low.

Where does this leave us? Well, if the Rays want to make any considerable acquisitions this off-season, they're going to need to shed salary somewhere. Even signing two bullpen arms for $1M each, signing Kapler for $1M, and signing a different catcher for $4M (still a $2M increase after losing Navarro's $2M) would potentially leave us needing to shed some budget. With that in mind, I think the Rays will look to move Bartlett or Crawford, since both are getting older, more expensive, and have values that are riding high. Bartlett seems the most obvious target to trade since we've got such infield depth, but I'm sure the Rays will explore all potential routes before making any moves.

Basically, if you want to see the Rays make a run at a good catcher or attempt to sign higher-end bullpen talent, remember that the salary for those signings is going to have to come from somewhere. The 2010 Rays are at (or at very least, near) capacity at the moment, so be prepared to see some exciting trades happening this off-season as well.

All contract information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.