SB Nation - Nick Punto

Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000

by Alex Brandon - AP

The market for Tejada will be tough to ascertain.

Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?

If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?

It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.

The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...

The Shortstops

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)

Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.

Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins

Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)

Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.

Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's

Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million

Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.

Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)

Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants

Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)

Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.

The Third Basemen

Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)

Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)

Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.

The Utility Players

Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)

Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.

Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million

Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.

The Outlier

Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)

Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)

Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)

Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)

Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.

The Breaking News

Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners

Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)

Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.

Forecast for Tejada

Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Twins Pick Up Michael Cuddyer's 2011 Option

Jesse — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:41:57 -0000

And here I was, writing about whether or not the Twins should actually do it....

Of course my conclusion was an adament "YES, YES THE TWINS SHOULD PICK UP CUDDY'S 2011 OPTION". Clearly I have a nose for these things.

Cuddyer's 2011 option is worth $10.5 million, but with the buyout an even million in its own right the Twins are essentially paying our right fielder $9.5 million for his services two years from now. Of course we all know that, as one of the team's leaders, Cuddyer hit .276/.342/.520 this past summer with career highs in home runs and slugging percentage.

There will be questions about whether or not Cuddles is worth that much money as a 32-year old right fielder whose range leaves a bit to be desired, but as far as I'm concerned this was a quality decision, and one that was more or less unavoidable.

This decision raises Minnesota's 2011 committments to roughly $42.6 million dollars: Justin Morneau ($15 MM), Joe Nathan ($11.25 MM), Cuddyer ($10.5 MM) and Scott Baker ($5.00 MM), as well as a $500K buyout for Nick Punto and a $350K buyout for Jason Kubel.

Michael Cuddyer

#5 / First Base / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Mar 27, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Michael Cuddyer	153	588	93	162	34	7	32	94	54	118	6	1	.276	.342	.520

Poll

If you're Bill Smith, did you just pick up Cuddy's 2011 option?

Hell yeah!

360 votes

Nope!

41 votes

401 votes | Poll has closed

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

When Is It Easier to Replace the Whole Than Replace the Parts?

Jesse — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:37:54 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

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And, when can it be done by a financially conscious club?

Answer: When there are no entrenched players with big contracts. Which is exactly the position the Twins find themselves in this year,

Almost two years ago to the day I talked about how this club would go about replacing Torii Hunter. It wasn't realistic to think that the organization would be able to replace everything Torii brought to the table with one guy, but it was possible that the Twins would be able to replace at least parts of his production through different players. This time around it's a little bit different, because A) there's more than one position open, B) the positions are open in spite of guys you could dub "incumbants" and C) we're not asking anyone to replace an All-Star.

If anyone is still wondering what position(s) I'm talking about, it's second base, third base and shortstop. Naturally.

With Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera possibly not returning to the Twins as free agents, both Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher are legitimate non-tender candidates this year. Brendan's versatility is only a plus when it doesn't cost a lot of money, which he's going to get now that he's about to enter arbitration for the first time; Brian's penchant for handling right-handed pitching gives him value in a platoon situation, but his defense and lack of power make him a one-trick pony if you give him extra credit for being able to backup first base. Being able to play multiple positions and having backup options has been part of Minnesota's MO over the last few years, but with Harris and Buscher in particular the Twins have some decisions to make as they weight their cost versus benefits ratios this winter.

This leaves Alexi Casilla (plausible trade fodder), Matt Tolbert (the new, younger and cheaper Harris) and Nick Punto (hello, contract!) as the only infielders who I would rate as likely candidates to remain entering 2010.

Let's get onto the fun part--what a player coming in would have to replace.

On-Base Skills
Casilla (.280), Crede (.289) Tolbert (.303), Harris (.310), Cabrera (.313), Punto (.337), Buscher (.360)

This should be one of the more essential attributes that any incoming infielder should possess. The two-hole, and the bottom of the batting order in general, had trouble producing base runners on any sort of a consistent basis. As a result the lineup, which was constructed around a handful of very competent and talented players, didn't score nearly as many runs as it could have.

Being able to hit, whether that's for power or average or both, is a secondary value as far as I'm concerned. Any player who can come in and simly prolong the inning by avoiding outs is an upgrade, and it's a necessity to find someone who can hit between Denard Span and Joe Mauer.

Plate Discipline

Getting on-base is priority number one, I don't care how anyone does it. But in the (most likely) event that the Twins don't get their hands on a premier middle infielder who is a natural hitter, they need to find a guy who can step in and just work it out. A guy who can be smart, identify the strike zone, identify pitches and be selective in his approach will find his way on.

Player	BB%	O-Swing%	Swing%	P/PA
Casilla	8.8	29.5	44.4	3.77
Crede	8.0	31.5	53.1	3.70
Tolbert	9.6	24.8	47.5	3.73
Harris	6.5	25.3	45.3	3.84
Cabrera	5.2	27.7	47.5	3.68
Punto	14.5	17.0	38.6	4.22
Buscher	15.0	19.8	41.3	4.26

BB% = Percentage of plate appearances that end in a walk (9.1% average)
O-Swing% = Percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone which were swung at (25.1% average)
Swing% = Overall percentage of pitches swung at (45.2% average)
P/PA = Pitches per plate appearance (3.87 team avearge)

The only two players consistently coming out on the better side of average are Punto and Buscher. We'll get more into Punto and his positives when we get around to our Season In Review series, but it's hard to look at what Brian did this year in very limited action (just 164 plate appearances) in one breath while saying he's a legitimate non-tender candidate in another. That's the difference between the microcosm and The Big Picture.

After our first two categories you should already have a pretty clear picture of how things look with our "incumbents", and how difficult it would be (or not be) to improve upon their 2009 performances. Punto's peripherals don't look horrible, while Buscher (as encouraging as his numbers are) were accumulated in very limited time. And it was limited time for a reason.

Power

Slg Iso HR/FB XBH%

Player	SLG	ISO	HR/FB%	XBH%
Casilla	.259	.057	0.0	3.9
Crede	.414	.189	10.1	8.7
Tolbert	.308	.076	3.7	4.3
Harris	.362	.101	5.2	6.4
Cabrera	.389	.105	4.2	8.1
Punto	.284	.056	1.1	3.9
Buscher	.316	.081	4.9	3.7

Power is an issue. We know this. We also know that as far as shortstop and second base are concerned, it's just a bonus. A big, fat bonus.

Defense

Not a bonus. Punto rated a plus at second base (5.2 UZR/150, while Crede (15.9) and Tolbert (8.0) each came out ahead at third base. Anyone and everyone else who played any sort of time at any of those three positions were, at best, below average. "Butcher" might be a more accurate term in some cases.

Speed

Cabrera is agile, Punto is quick, but only Casilla is someone I would dub as truly fast. He was 11 for 11 in stolen bases this season, confirming not just his raw speed but also his ability to read pitchers and get the jumps he needs. FanGraphs rates his speed component as 6.9 (compared to 5.0 average). That speed still hasn't translated to consistent success in the field however, resulting in flashes of prowess in his range mitigated with any number of mistakes.

Punto was 16-for-19 this season in stolen bases, but this is more a case of a guy who knows how to use his quickness than an example of a player whose raw speed gets him his numbers.

You can teach reaction, hone instincts and train for an explosive first step, but speed itself can't be taught. Finding a player who knows how to maximize his speed is more important than trying to bring in the fastest guy you can find, but as far as this tool is concerned it's one area where the Twins don't actually require improvement.

What good solutions are out there?

Dan Uggla is still toward the top of my list. He was second among all second basemen in walk rates in 2009, walking in 14 percent of his plate appearances. His OBP was solid (.354) and he complimented it with good power (.216 ISO, 31 home runs). He also knows his strike zone (18.7 O-Swing%, also second best in baseball among second basemen). Uggla's biggest detractor is his defense, which would roughly equate to Tolbert's season at second base: not pathetic, but definitely not good. He's right-handed and arbitration eligible.

On the free agent market is one Jamey Carroll, who is about as versatile as it gets while still being an effective hitter; in 2009 he played second, third and both corner outfield positions. For his career he's been extraordinarily selective as a hitter, swinging at just 16.5% of balls outside of the strike zone and just 33.6% of all pitches this past season. Career walk rates? Right around ten percent. On-base percentage? Just over .350 for his career, although hitting between Span and Mauer I could see him doing even better. The downside is that he'll be 36 next season and has only been a full-time player once in his career, usually appearing in roughly 100 games.

Felipe Lopez is also on the market, but projects as a Type-B free agent (not a big deal) and is also a Scott Boraas client (a bigger deal, literally). He's a switch-hitter, 30 in 2010, a good bet to post a .340+ OBP, and is a versatile defender although second and third might be his better positions. Lopez is also good for 25-35 doubles as a full-time player. As an option I really haven't considered much in recent weeks, he's definitely somebody to keep tabs on.

Finally there's fan-favorite J.J. Hardy, who is coming off of his worst professional season and a demotion to triple-A in Milwaukee. He's a gamble, but one that could pay off and likely shouldn't cost as much as Uggla, and he's also consistently been a good defensive shortstp.

Who else gets your vote as a favorite this off-season? How do they stack up as far as the essential peripherals?

As for the question which serves as the title for this post, the answer is as easy as the one I mentioned earlier, but it's probably also a bit more cruel. It's easier to replace the whole when the parts you have just aren't that good. There are bright spots, which includes Buscher's affinity for right-handed pitchers, Casilla's speed and some of Punto's peripherals, but none of them are complete packages and more importantly, none of them are good, star players who are capable of helping give the Twins an additional boost in 2010. They are who they are, with perhaps the exception of Casilla, and if the organization wants to give the club a little extra juice next summer they'll be hard pressed to expect anymore out of those three players than they got in 2009.

Twins Second Base In 2010: The Devil You Know?

Jesse — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:35:12 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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Stop me if you've heard this off-season story before...the Twins have an opening at second base.

When the Twins traded Luis Castillo at the 2007 trade deadline, it was seen as a curious but defendable action. Since then second base has been a carousel of mediocrity, with Minnesota starting Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla and Luis Rodriguez the rest of the way in just '07. '08 began with Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert before Casilla and Punto and even Matt Macri saw starts. This past season saw the usual suspects cover the position once again, and while no new names were pulled from the hat it still means there were six guys getting starts over the last two-and-a-half seasons at second base.

It's difficult to be too hard on the front office for not bringing in an everyday second baseman last year. Punto had proven himself to be a versatile and valuable glove man over the years, even if 2009 wasn't as strong. Casilla has been, for the last two years, the guy that the organization has wanted to step into the role long-term. And as far as versatile swingmen are concerned, you could do worse than Harris. Additionally, as a position that typically doesn't provide a lot of offense, it kind of made sense that the vacancy at second base sort of fell to a secondary concern last winter.

Moving into 2010 it's impossible to not see second base as a primary concern. While the Devil You Know, or Devils, will still be around, their cumulative performance was one of the worse in baseball this season. Twins second basemen hit a combined .209/.302/.267 in 2009, with their .569 OPS by far the worse in the game. San Francisco's combined .611 OPS was good for a distant 29th.

Defensively the prospects weren't much brighter. As a group Twins second basemen accumulated a -7.0 UZR/150, 28th in the league. A -10.4 RngR was only slightly better at 27th.

The tricky bit, the part that sneaks into my brain and every other optimist's brain out there, is the bit that says Well, there's still some upside here. Casilla's still young, Punto finished strong at the plate and actually played strong defense down the stretch to end the year as the only Minnesota second baseman to finish the season with a UZR/150 not in the negative. Aye, that's the rub. THE RUB!

For the third consecutive season, the Minnesota Twins enter the off-season without an incumbant at any of the three infield positions to the left of first base. Each of the last two years I've said the exact same thing: as long as they fill two of those three spots with a quality player, I'll be happy. But even saying that I knew that second base wasn't the biggest concern. For the first time in these three years, I believe that it's just as important for the Twins to improve at second base as it is for them to solve their issues at third and short.

But with so many internal options available the organization will need to be creative if they aren't going to go the route that most of us expect them to take. If they want to think outside the box and go for a guy like Dan Uggla or Kelly Johnson, the trend of internal promotion that's plugged the gap in the middle infield over the last couple years will need to be bucked and some of those familiar faces, the Punto's and Casilla's and Harris's's's and Tolbert's, would likely find themselves donning new uniforms in 2010.

I'm hoping that the organization takes a few calculated gambles this off-season. I would like nothing more than to see this team make a move for a guy they believe can start 130 games at second base next year; not just start but own the position. He doesn't have to be an All-Star or a Gold Glove winner, but some value on at least one side of the ball would constitute an upgrade. That's what I want.

Poll

Where will the starting second baseman come from in 2010?

The Devil You Know (Internal)

284 votes

The Devil You've Probably Heard Of (External)

218 votes

502 votes | Poll has closed

Morning After Poll: How are you doing?

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 11:01:17 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

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We did this last year, so it's only fair to do a 2009 version as well. Twins baseball is over until April, and over forever in the Metrodome, and it's hard not to be a little bit sad about that.

That's certainly not the only feeling this morning, though. No doubt there's a certain amount of rage, some of it directed at Phil Cuzzi, much of it probably aimed at ~~Darrell Evans~~ Nick Punto.

So, how are you doing?

Poll

How are you feeling this morning?

Thrilled for next year: 2010's the year, baby!

135 votes

Still hoping for a chance to punch Phil Cuzzi.

136 votes

Still hoping for a chance to punch Nick Punto.

92 votes

Feeling defeated, after nine straight playoff-game losses.

159 votes

Feeling resigned to more exciting but ultimately disappointing years like this one.

124 votes

Bleary-eyed and hung over.

49 votes

695 votes | Poll has closed

The Bottom Line: Twins Struggle to Hold Leads VS Yankees

Jesse — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:04:47 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano throws during the first inning of Game 3 of the American League division baseball series against the New York Yankees on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Twins 1, Yankees 4

Every game of this series saw the Twins take a lead. In game one it was 2-0. In game two it was 1-0...and then 3-1. Tonight it was 1-0, again. And with the exception of game one, which was all Yankees all the time after the top of the third inning, games two and three could have been won by the Twins if only they could lock it down.

Nick Blackburn pitched very well in game two. And back home, Carl Pavano pitched an absolute gem in game three. Pavano struck out nine Yankee hitters in seven innings, walked nobody and allowed just five hits. Sadly, two of those hits came in the top of the seventh, when Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada each went deep.

Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares each walked a batter in the ninth, loading the bases for Joe Nathan with just one out. Nick Punto ignored a stop sign and was thrown out as he tried to dive back to third base. Jason Kubel upped his strikeout total to nine in the series. It's hard not to be a little bitter right now, to not have a sour taste in your mouth, but if you're looking to point a finger for the outcome of this series it can only be pointed at the team we love. And somehow, that makes it even worse.

It was a spectacular season. And that's all I'm going to say for tonight. No analysis, no name-calling, no wallowing in misery. The Minnesota Twins are the AL Central Division champions, and they played their tails off to earn that title. But the fact that I feel like I do only goes to show me how much this team means to me, and I already know that by tomorrow morning I'll be looking forward to the off-season, with the hope that next year...next year...might be the season we finally bring home the World Series trophy.

Congratulations to the New York Yankees, who advance to the ALCS. They made the plays they needed to make, and they took advantage of every single mistake the Twins made in this series. Which is exactly what you expect a championship-caliber team to do, big market or small markeet. Or mid-market, in Minnesota's case.

Thanks for a great season, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow.

Stars of the Game
Joe Mauer: Playing the role of MVP, Joe picked up the Twins' lone RBI of the night.
Denard Span: Two hits for the leadoff guy, along with a stolen base. Solid night.
Michael Cuddyer: A pair of hits for Cuddles, who also had a strong night.
Matt Guerrier: A big scoreless eighth inning.
Carl Pavano: Seven innings of fantastic ball, it was the best I've seen him all year. I definitely would like to see him back next season.

Tears
Nick Punto: After starting a rally with a leadoff double in the eighth, he ran through a stop sign from Scott Ulger on Span's chopper up the middle. It killed a rally the team desperately needed.
Brendan Harris: Hitless in big spots tonight.
Jose Morales: Looked overmatched at times; still looking forward to seeing him as Joe's backup next season.
Jason Kubel: Overmatched at all times. Nine strikeouts in the series with three more tonight. Extremely disappointing, sorry Patches.
Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares: Walking the bases loaded, with the team on the ropes. It doesn't get any worse than that, it really doesn't.

Respect
Alex Rodrigez: I hate the fact that you're such a great ballplayer. I liked him before he came to New York. Like a lot of players.
Andy Pettitte: Pitched a great game. One of the all-time great post-season pitchers.
Mariano Rivera: Continues to amaze, even at this point of his career. His buzz-saw of Mauer to end the Minnesota threat in the eighth was sick.

Poll

Where does your allegience lie for the ALCS?

New York Yankees

139 votes

Los Angeles Angels

274 votes

Actually, a team from the NL

92 votes

505 votes | Poll has closed

Walkoff Bomb, Extra Innings, Clutch Hitting, Dramatic Comeback: Yankees do it the Yankee way in 4-3 win

CrazyYankeeChick — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 02:44:45 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Teixeira's ~~walk-off~~ skip-off long ball gives Yanks a 4-3 victory and a 2-0 ALDS lead

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I cannot believe what the hell just happened.

My hands are still shaking.

My heart may or may not be fighting the good fight against certain cardiac arrest.

I feel my head could pop off my body, either from light-headedness or excitement or sensory overload (because, ya know. That's the normal consequence...)

The Yankees just beat the Twins in 11 innings, off the bat of Mark Teixeira--his first walkoff in pinstripes, the Yankees' 11th postseason walkoff.

You know how this recap started? At 9:08pm I sat down at my desk and wrote the following:

I had forgotten what this feels like. I hated watching other teams play in the postseason last year. I was so jealous. And now I remember how miserable it is. It's only one loss, but I feel like I lost a limb. I can’t go out, I can’t eat, I can’t sleep. I just want to curl up in a ball until Sunday comes.

Now? Well, the prospect of recapping the last 5 hours of my life is a little more palatable right now:

A.J. Burnett’s postseason debut was a stellar coming-out party, as he dealt his standard array of filthy sliders and slurves and gas and whatever other permutation of pitches he could come up with to get the outs. And of course treated up to his standard array of wildness, which we’ve now come to accept as part of "Good AJ Dealing" Deal.

Over 6 innings of 3-hit ball, he blanked 6, and let up 1 run when on Brendan Harris’s triple drove in Delmon Young.

Down 1-0 in the 6th with only their third baserunner of the game on 2nd, Alex Rodriguez delivers his 2nd clutch hit in as many games. My buddy texts me: "I don't think I can handle a clutch ARod tonight." Apparently, I wasn't the only one ill-prepared in terms of proper head-to-neck adhesion.

At this point in the game, you're looking at it like it's your basic nailbiter pitcher's duel, and the fact that it's a postseason match makes it that much more impressively exciting. Amazing. Little did any of us know that in a few hours, the tied score in the 7th would be the least compelling timeframe.

For all the talk about CC Sabathia, ARod, and Burnett being galactic liabilities in the clutch, none of us, and I mean NO ONE, considered for even a second that our stumbles would arise with Phil Hughes on the mound. It's like when I took my road test and practiced parallel parking for the weeks prior. I dominated that part, and then ended up failing on account of going 50 in a school zone, not wearing my seatbelt, going the wrong way in a one-way street, and running a stop sign.

In 0.2 innings of "work," Hughes walked 1, and let up 2 runs on 2 hits, with all occuring on 2 outs. The golden child who redefined the value of the 8th-inning-setup all season long...put the Yankees in a 3-1 hole heading into the bottom of the 8th.

Our other relievers were effective to varying degrees, Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain pitched to 4 batters between them, ceding zero runs. So when the game is handed over to Hughes then quickly snatched back to give to Mariano Rivera, you know Joba's thinking, "Yep, been there, done that..."

You gotta hand it to the Twins, they manufactured the hell outta baserunners, and off a very formidable pen. Nick Punto and Denard Span hit singles in the 8th to drive in Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris. Joe Mauer, Michael Cuddyer excelled offensively as expected, and with the team's12 hits on the day, they definitely out-basehitted the Yanks. But for my money, I'd rather be able to manufacture wins, than hits.

Minny also had 12Ks (to the Yanks' 4), which was ultimately their undoing, having left 17 runners and if scoring opportunties were currency, then the Twinks were squandering them away like it was the 15th of the month.

So between Minnesota and New York fans, basically no one is a fan of the Yankees' penchant for getting into jams just so they can work themselves out of it. I mean, I'm just as happy as the next guy to see the bottom of the inning roll around, but I may or may not have spent an abnormal amount of the game getting physically sick from nerves. Forget W.B. Mason, the more fitting corporate sponsor is PeptoBismol.

Then there was the 9th inning, and nothing I could write could ever possibly do justice to what ARod accomplished. He already had the only RBI of the game, and after Tex singled to reach first, ARod launched a bomb off supercloser Joe Nathan into the Yankee bullpen. It didn't just tie the game, it sent a message and it infuriated his critics...because there's no denying his postseason performance.

The only people more aggravated than Twink fans right now are anti-ARod activists who have been spending the last hour in an emergency summit meeting, where they've locked themselves in a conference room to brainstorm ways to dilute ARod's performance in the the clutch. Hope they stocked up on Starbucks.

So now we got a whole new ballgame. Tied at 3 and heading into extras, and I can't speak for other Yank fans, but when the Yanks come back at home, I never expect them to lose. I'm always a little surprised to some extent when they can't close it out. And the fact that the Twins weren't rolling over and dying in these late innings of play, was making me increasingly panicky. "Oh my God. They could take the lead. Right now. Jesus."

I get nervous with pickoff attempts, so when Damaso Marte put 2 runners on in the top of the 11th with no outs, I lost about 17 years of my life. Once again, newly rehabilitated David Robertson gets the call to pull his team out of a mess of a situation. Every time you think you've seen the most unbelievable element of the game, the Yankees reset the bar at another ridiculous plateau. No runs scored with the bases loaded and zero outs.

I didn't even have time to process this absurdity before Tex goes yard in front of over 50,000 in attendance at the Bronx. And sweet Christ, that ball left in a hurry. Sterling didn't even have time to build any suspense. It was, "Line drive down the left field line...and IT IS GONE!!!"

The Twins are now overfeated against the Yanks, having lost the 9 straight to them--their 4th of the walkoff persuasion. My Mets-fan friend with an evidenced death wish spent the better part of the game either gloating at Yanks' setbacks, or vehemently affirming that the game is fixed and the Yanks were only where they were because of the umps.

Hey, if you can't score 1 run with bases loaded and no outs, you got bigger fish to fry than questionable officiating. On Wednesday, when CC clearly whiffed Orlando Cabrera, but he was charged with a walk, and 2 runs scored when the inning shouldn't have even been going on. Blame the umps as much as you want, but it all evens out in the end.

On Sunday, the Yanks and Andy Pettitte (14-8, 4.16) will face their old friend Carl Pavano (14-12, 5.10), who has won nearly twice as many starts in 1 year with the Indians/Twins as he did in 3 years with the Yankees. It'd be nice to thank him for his years of service with a sweep.

Congratulations, Yankees, on reminding the world who they're up against. And thank you, ghosts, for springing for postseason tickets. In the words of Frank, "If you can make it here, you'll make it anywhere. It's up to you, New York, Newww Yorkkkk."

-CYC

Twins Lose 2-0 Lead, Allow 7 Unanswered Runs for Game 1 Loss

Jesse — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 08:22:36 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

"See, Derek? This is where C.C. likes to be touched, nice and gentle right here." (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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Twins 2, Yankees 7

It started off pretty well. Only Derek Jeter's single to lead off the bottom of the first for the Yankees meant the Bombers had a base runner in the first two innings, as Brian Duensing mixed in all of his pitches early to keep New York off-balance. Indeed, it looked like familiar foe C.C. Sabathia might be the pitcher to struggle in this one, at least early on.

Nick Punto singled after six pitches to lead off the third, with Sabathia feeding him nothing but fastballs low and over the plate before Denard Span forced the Twins ro rally with two outs by grounding into a double play. It did show that, at that time, Sabathia wasn't really comfortable. Orlando Cabrera deliverd on a seven-pitch single, and Joe Mauer took Sabathia's I'm-trying-to-walk-you-without-intentionally-walking-you approach and turned it into a double. Michael Cuddyer finally took pity on C.C. and pushed a line drive into right for a single on the first pitch he saw, scoring Cabrera and giving the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Minnesota took a 2-0 lead on a passed ball, when Jorge Posada inexplicably couldn't catch a Sabathia fastball. Jason Kubel backed away quickly and Mauer did score, but Kubel, for whatever reason, never gave Mauer any signal as to what he should do. Joe was momentarily trapped--he took off as soon as the ball got away and then paused, waiting for Kubel to either wave him in or put up the stop sign, but it never came. Finally Joe caught sight of the ball himself and slid around the tag to give the Twins a 2-0 lead.

Of course it all went downhill from there.

Derek Jeter's two-run homer in the bottom half of the inning knotted the score. Nick Swicher's double scored Robinson Cano in the fourth. In the fifth, Duensing couldn't stem the tide, bouncing back to get two outs after walking Derek Jeter but then succumbing to the biggest Yankee outburth of the evening. Alex Rodriguez singled to extend New York's lead to 4-2, and that was the end of Brian's night.

Enter: Francisco Liriano.

Exit: Liriano's 93-mph fastball. 6-2, Yankees.

A-Rod would single in Jeter in the seventh to add one more, but it would hardly seem to matter. After the sixth the Twins had their opportunities and let them slide away. Span and Cabrera couldn't come through in the seventh with one out and runners on second and third; Mauer's leadoff single in the eighth was wasted; Cabrera stranded Punto and Span on third and second respectively to end the game.

Once again it was Minnesota's failure to capitalize with runners in scoring position that forced this game to turn out the way it did. The face of this one could have been much different; not that the Twins would have won, but they would have at least had a chance in the late innings with a closer score. It's hard to keep the Yankees from scoring less than five runs; they scored an astounding 915 times in the regular season. But if the offense isn't going to take advantage of the base runners they either earn or are gifted, then we're in even more trouble.

This one rests as much with the pitching as it does with the offense. It was an incomplete game on all sides of the ball, and while we could let Tuesday night's contest shoulder the blame for fatigue and let-down, but there's really no excuse now. And even if it were true, it doesn't much matter at the end of the day. The dreaded Yankees hold a one game lead in the 2009 ALDS.

Stars of the Game
#3: Joe Mauer (2-for-4, 2B, R, -.023 WPA)
#2: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-4, RBI, .034 WPA)
#1: Nick Punto (2-for-3, BB, .037 WPA)

Tears for You
Brian Duensing (4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 3 K 1 BB, -.227 WPA)
Francisco Liriano (2.0 IP, 1 R but a 2-run HR, 1 K, 1 BB, -.111 WPA)
Kubel-Young-Harris-Tolbert (1-for-15)