SB Nation - Matt Garza

B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett Among Rays' Tendered Contracts

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Mary Schwalm - AP

Tampa Bay Rays catcher Dioner Navarro, left, and pitcher Lance Cormier both received one-year deals, avoiding arbitration.

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Now that decision Saturday is finished, the Rays roster has gotten a bit clearer in some areas, yet remains unsettled in others. Not surprising, but B.J. Upton, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour and Kelly Shoppach were all tendered contracts for the 2010 season. Barring an unforeseen event, all should be back with the Rays. The remaining questions are: who will sign before the mid-January deadline? And will any have a hearing like Dioner Navarro did last season?

Speaking of Navarro, a non-tender candidate in his own right, he was not only tendered a contract, but re-signed before the midnight deadline to a one-year deal with $2.1 million dollars avoiding arbitration altogether. The $2.1 million dollar salary is an exact replica of the salary Navarro received in 2009 after an arbitration panel denied his request for $2.5 million. It's not secret Navarro was just awful in 2009, but some of that awfulness can be explained by bad luck.

Even with regression, it seems that Navarro and the other catcher on the roster, Shoppach, are not ideal platoon partners with each player owning a similar platoon split. The Rays could stay status-quo on the position, or could continue to shop Navarro as was reported before Saturday's deadline. The going rate on an average catcher this year seems to be $3 million annually; Navarro could be a cheaper, alternative to some on the open market. If not, they Rays will have about ~$5 million dollars tied up at the catcher position with no clear cut answer to who is the starter.

Gabe Gross's non-tender is not a surprise. His name was never mentioned by Joe Maddon or Andrew Friedman as part of the 2010 plans, and Matt Joyce will never be more ready than he is now. Maybe the Rays will sign Ryan Langerhans for R.J. to obsess over.

R.J. covered the one-year deals of Randy Choate and Lance Cormier that will pay the bullpen duo a combined $1.9 million dollars in 2010. Choate will head in to spring training as the lead LOOGY in the clubhouse, while Cormier will nearly double his 2009 salary ($650k) and earn $1.2 million dollars. With Andy Sonnanstine and Mitch Talbot in the mix for bullpen spots, the raise for Cormier could mean an expanded role; one more similar to fellow ground baller, Chad Bradford instead of just mop-up man.

Among players non-tendered by other teams, I think Matt Capps makes the most sense for the Rays. The Rays had reported interest in him before the deadline, and it's easy to see why. Capps is still young at age 26, and was well above average in 2007 and 2008. It's strange that the Huntington/Fox front office would cut him loose based on one bad season in which some regression seems to be in order. If the Rays can some how dig into their new, seemingly bottom-less, purse one more time this offseason, Capps would seem like a decent investment since his new team would also hold his rights for 2011.

Random Weekend Question: Favorite/Least Favorite Non-O

Stacey — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

I saw this question posed as a FanPost on another site and thought it was a pretty good idea for a slow, pre-Thanskgiving weekend. So who's your favorite baseball player that's not an Oriole? Least favorite non-O? Why?

Some of my favorites:

Matt Garza - He seems a little bit insane, and I feel like he's going to be crazy good.
Roy Halladay - I just love everything about him. I saw a rumor the Dodgers are trying to trade for him. That'd be nice because, you know.
Joe Nathan - Once when the Orioles were playing the Twins, Nathan wasn't available because his wife was having a baby. He got to the stadium just as the game was ending and while the Twins were shaking hands on the field he was out on the field in his street clothes handing out cigars and I thought it was the best.
Curtis Granderson - Probably my favorite non-Oriole. I love the way he plays CF, I love how involved he is in the community, I love that he writes a column on Yahoo sports, I love his tall socks, I love it all.

Some Least Favorites:

Ian Kinsler - I feel like he steals Brian Roberts' thunder. And his face bugs me.
Khalil Greene - Remember when people would talk periodically about the Orioles trading for this guy? I never understood it at all and I think started to resent him a little because of it. Why would the Orioles want this guy?
Aaron Rowand - He's not even good! He dives all over the place, so what?
Mark Teixeira - You know why.

Top 30 Starts of 2009 - Part 6

Andy Hellicksonstine — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:00:19 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

Longoria: Dude, relax, Andy H just said you had the two best starts of the year. Garza: F*$# YEAH ::spit:: (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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This is it, for those of you that have been patiently waiting to see the best Rays pitching performances of the year. If you read through the last installment, then you noticed that I have moved to a scoring system. Let's take a look at the standings:

Shields	104
Niemann	61
Price	60
Kazmir	40
Garza	29
Davis	17
Sonnanstine	14

James Shields has been running away with it based on the quantity as well as the quality of his starts. Jeff Niemann has also had a lot of starts in here, but less so of the top-tier quality. Wade Davis has had a few appearances, which is surprising since he only had a few total on the year, but when we think of great performances we think of Matt Garza. So far he has had three starts looked at (7, 28, & 29). I found this somewhat surprising, because as some of you know I track game-to-game FIP and wOBA for pitchers to reach an estimate of deserved wins. Matty tore up the wOBA wins approaching 20 and was a tick behind Shields on the FIP-side. Well, if you're a fan of The Crane, then you won't be disappointed as he comes on like gangbusters here. First up however...

5) James Shields at New York Mets on June 20 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.00

2.01

0.155

This was before the Mets became a full blown AAAA team so you can't chalk it up totally to that, but only allowing three guys on the bases is quite the achievement over 7 full innings. Broken record alert, but when James keeps the ball in the yard, he is as close to an ace as we've ever had. He needed to be on that day as he was facing Johan Santana, whom is a certified ace and bound to give the Rays fits being weird-handed with a great change. After giving up the run in the 2nd he would mow down 16 of the next 17 before being yanked for Mountain Man Dan Wheeler to start the 8th. I like that Shieldsy only threw 5 cutters on the night, only one of which was in the zone:

via brooksbaseball.net

He was basically 2:1 on the fastball:changeup and closer to 3:1 on the fastball:curve/slider. This is what I like to see out of James. He was able to work ahead throwing 66% strikes on the night with his change leading the way in whiffs. See the highlights link above for grown-men looking like little leaguers.

4) Wade Davis at Baltimore on September 17 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.59

0.185

Wade was told that if he threw strikes that it would come, so as he eased their pain, he was able to go the distance. He didn't have a catch with his ghost of a father after the game, but Wade did give us a glimpse of the future in an absolute gem of a performance. Coming off a brilliant debut, and a thorough thrashing in his sophomore start, most folks weren't sure what to make of Big Nasty (Yes, I am coining this nickname for Mr. Davis). They were rewarded with a CGSO. The fastball sat at 92 while issuing 5 whiffs (10 total on 124 pitches). He threw a ton of fastball, both in, and out of the zone, but his curve, slider, and cutter he had great control of throwing a combined 34 strikes on 44 pitches with 5 whiffs. The video above shows just how filthy his breaking ball is. I like his fastball, because when it's on it has that same ride that Garza gets off the plate to lefties. They can either leave it there and take the occasional strike or foul it off and then get fooled on the breaking ball.

via brooksbaseball.net

That speed chart is absolutely gorgeous. I want to make babies with it. Big Nasty's hardest pitch came in the low 120's while maintaining velocity throughout the game. Granted it was his 3rd start, but he had pitched all year at Durham, so it's not like he was completely fresh. At the moment, he compares very much to Matty Garza, in my mind. A little bigger, the fastball isn't quite as good, but the bendy stuff brings women to their knees. Wade reminds us that with the death of one season comes the hope and promise at the birth of the next. Personally, I can't wait to see him next year.

3) Jeff Niemann vs. Kansas City Royals on June 3 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.48

0.084

The Big Nyquil barely had to break a sweat in earning his 1st CGSO of the season on a two-hitter. He threw his fastball and slider for strikes, while dropping his curve out of the zone on his way to garnering 12 whiffs. In his 9 innings of work, the most pitches he threw in an inning was 14 in the 5th with 4 separate innings of 9 pitches. That is straight dominance averaging 11 pitches/inning against a Major League ballclub (OK the Royals.) I love the following chart:

via i273.photobucket.com

I have shaded the inner-part of the plate because you can see that Niems was just pounding fastballs in there. He threw a couple of back-door sliders, and two curves, but for the most part he was blowing it by righties on the inner 1/8 of the plate. Speaking of the fastball, he threw 3 of his first 10 pitches over 94 MPH, before settling in to sit at 92. Congrats on a phenomenal start, Jeff, let's see more of these in 2010.

2) Matt Garza at Toronto on July 24th Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.15

0.167

Here's a Matt Garza performance that shows why I'm not a fan of looking at R/ER as the sole indicator of a great performance. Yes, he gave up two runs. After retiring the first six batters, in the bottom of the 3rd, Garz gave up a lead-off single to Rios whom managed to get to 2nd on a throwing error by Longo. Garza induced a flyout to center and then one to right, in which, Rios moved over to 3rd. A 2-out single by Scutaro brought the run in and a double by the next batter, an on-fire Aaron Hill, led to the second run coming in.

Now think about this for a minute. Garza gave up two singles and a double in the inning and in the other 8 he only gave up another single and a double with no walks on the entire game. My point is that I don't think 8 brilliant innings should be completely thrown out because of one inning where he got a little nicked. This same thing can be applied to James Shields. In a typical 7 inning performance from James he will have 4-5 outstanding innings, 1 clunker, and 1-2 where he has to work himself out of trouble. Major League hitters are so good at making adjustments that virtually every pitcher will get touched here and there. The good ones find ways to minimize the damage and then keep their pitch counts down in other innings, as Matty did throwing 13 COMBINED pitches in the 5th and 6th.

How pretty is this:

via brooksbaseball.net

From pitch 90 on, he through all but 4 fastballs while virtually linearly increasing his velocity until the end. Garza is a stud because this is a common theme with him. He can bring ched whenever he wants including late in the game. On the game, he got 10 whiffs throwing mostly the fastball (72%) and the slider (16%). If you watched the video above, then you saw that his change was a devastating weapon, despite only being thrown 6 times. I saw two guys just frozen by it's unexpectedness and another trying to cool off the fans with his mighty swing-and-miss.

A Longo two-run double in the top of the 10th allowed Maddon to turn the ball over to the Iceman. Garza's day was finished, but he still picked up the win. I found this pretty interesting:

via i273.photobucket.com

I count 5 K's in the upper-left hand portion of the quadrant, while there is a double, a single, a lineout and most of the other decent contact in the overlap of the 2 zones. Not surprising that when you throw it down the middle guys are going to get wood (on it). I really like all the contact (or K's) that he got on the fringes of the strike zone. Even the best stuff means nothing if you can't control AND COMMAND it. It looks like on this day, Matt Garza had great stuff and knew how to use it.

1) Matt Garza vs. Boston Red Sox on April 30 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.67

0.93

0.068

This shall forever be known as the "Jacoby Ellsbury's Parents Should Never Have Met" game. Garz faced one over the minimum due to a nifty double play, that a certain elf-like second sacker didn't appreciate, against one of the best offenses in the Majors that was running on pure ethanol at the time. The video shows guys whiffing, guys getting rocked to sleep, and a bunch of grown men taking half cuts and check swings, the ultimate white flag. Matty didn't throw a change, relying on the fastball (75% usage, 7.4% whiffs), slider (15% usage, 25% whiffs), and curveball (10%).

via i273.photobucket.com

Now I'm no artist, so the ovals aren't exactly a bench-marked size to match with all these other graphs, but I see one pitch, YES ONE, that's in the overlap area of this chart. Interestingly, using the outcomes chart below, it looks like that lone slider was a strikeout. Perhaps this is an example of game theory, in that, he hadn't gone to that well all day, and the batter was stunned when he saw a beautiful slider nestle it's way right in there. Stumbling upon this way to look at pitches just today, I can't confidently say anything broadly, but my guess would be that if you stay out of that center diamond, you're going to find great success. Brooks has Garza's fastball moving right-to-left 2.69 inches and riding 11.55 inches up, compared to a normal ball. That can help explain all those fastball in (to righties) and up in that upper-left hand quadrant. I only see two fastballs in the zone below the 2 foot line (Pedroia's eye-line if it helps you to visualize) with many curves out of the zone. Though he didn't get any whiffs, using these two starts I think you can see a pattern where Garz throws the slider for strikes and tries to get whiffs with the curve out of the zone. This has to create a synergistic reaction where the batter sees bendy stuff and can't form an opinion on whether it'll be in the zone or not, just based on pitch type.

Without the shading this time, you can see that The Crane was living on the fringes of the plate for the deciding pitch of most PA's:

via brooksbaseball.net

Much like the #2 start on the countdown, Matt had over-whelming stuff on this night, but he also used it correctly. He won't always sit at 92.7, touching 95 with the heater, but if Matt can throw to the corners and live on the fringes of the plate (assuming competent umpiring, always a crapshoot there) he can take that next level in 2010. We've seen absolute brilliance from Matt Garza on many occasions, but his good numbers have kind of stagnated in the good range. Looking at starts like these last two, he has all the weapons to get himself into the great level of starters. For the team's sake, I hope that this upcoming season is the one where he takes that step forward to become the borderline ace that we've only seen glimpses of in the past.

This concludes the top-30 starts of 2009. I hope you enjoyed my labor of love. Here are the final standings for our pitchers:

Shields

Niemann

Garza

Price

Davis

Kazmir

Sonnanstine

130

Pretty clear who our number 1 starter is, whether you agree with his performance or now, James Shields is a baller of the highest order. In 2009 Niemann and Garza appear to be competent #2's with Price a clear #3 starter. Kazmir and Sonnanstine were pretty much a drag on the entire pitching staff, but luckily one's gone and the other is already pumping iron and running steps. The WILD CARD! here is Wade Davis. We saw some awesome stuff, albeit in a small sample. If he can match what Niemann or Price gave us in 09, while the other two continue to progress, we're looking at a pretty filthy starting rotation.

As always, thanks to Baseball-reference.com, brooksbaseball.net, and MLB.com, now that we are into the worst part of the calendar year, something that I find interesting is to go on MLB.com and watch some of their videos. Find a player you like and they will run one-after-another throughout the season. So many games get played that it's easy to forget about some of the better plays that were made. It's free-of-charge, and I've only seen about one advertisement per 100 videos.

Revisiting the Matt Garza/Delmon Young Deal Once More

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 10:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

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Speaking of that Delmon Young deal...

With knowledge comes responsibility to review the past. If Wile E. Coyote learns that the Road Runner can detect dynamite from distances expanding the blast radius, this changes his perspective on what he should've done. Selecting David Price over Matt Wieters was fine with my 2007 self - ace potential woo! Evan Longoria instead of Tim Lincecum was okay too - grotesque deliveries always scare folks away. Once you learn that not all deliveries ranging from the mean are going to result in injury or that hitters are more safe than pitchers you develop a different viewpoint than the old one you held. It is in this state of reflection that the Delmon deal resurfaces.

Back then it was pretty well established that Young was a brat. He moped, he essentially accused Joe Maddon of playing favorites, and he segregated the clubhouse in a better manner than he could ever segregate balls from strikes. The Young deal came in surreal fashion. For weeks the rumors were stirring but still, trading Delmon Young? Now, the Rays got Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Eduardo Morlan in return and that looked good and all - and the performance since have done nothing to sway such predeterminations - but trading five years of a young corner outfielder with remarkable potential for six years of a starting pitcher with remarkable potential is pretty damn risky.

As noted, Young had character and developmental issues. He was 21-years-old and basking in the winter glory of appearing in all 162 games and hitting 13 home runs with 38 doubles. Through 812 plate appearances Young had 16 home runs and a .738 OPS. Defensively he took questionable routes, but all was forgotten when Young would pull the trigger on his right arm and catch runners foolish enough to advance on practically any batted ball towards right field.

In a season with Rookie of the Year award expectations Young was unimpressive in most regards, a stellar contrast to his brief symposium the year prior in which Young hit a home run in his first game and would gun down Ichiro Suzuki attempting to take third base on a single in his fourth game. Success was expected in large part because of Young's minor league track record. In about 600 plate appearances Young terrorized A-ball pitching with a .322/.388/.538 line. He moved on to hit AA just as well at .336/.386/.582. In Triple-A he would struggle as a 20-year-old, batting only .304/.326/.463, but the potential for so much more existed.

Garza himself had struggled in brief major league exposure. His 4.47 ERA and seven strikeouts per nine were not quite what one expected from a flamethrower. With so many talented arms in the Rays system maybe this wasn't the best of ideas after all. If that seems like analysis pulled from the shallow end of the pool then, well, it is.

In protest of becoming a lecture on recent history, we know that positional players are more valuable than pitchers, and we know that they progress on a more-linear path. These two combinations loaded the Rays portion of the deal with a landmine in the form of Garza's right arm. Remember that nerve issue Garza encountered early in the 2008 season? Yeah, neither do most people, but if the injury turns out more serious, how different do we view this deal?

Credit the front office for feeling confident and comfortable in their analysis of Young's potential and likelihood to reach said potential. Perhaps the intimacy in which the Rays experienced Young's work ethic drove the proverbial stake into Young's coffin. Was there a crippling fear that Young would wake up after his trade and make an effort to improve his skills? Who knows? Nobody can predict the future, instead people can make the best projections based on what knowledge is available at the time. In this case the Rays nailed it by assuming Young would continue his lifelong pursuit towards becoming the real life Donatello - pizza-exclusive diet included.

As of today, Garza has made 62 starts for the Rays which incredibly ranks him eleventh in franchise history. With two starts next season Garza will surpass Wilson Alvarez and Edwin Jackson, with four he moves beyond Tanyon Sturtze, and over a full 30 starts Garza's name will be above the late Joe Kennedy, above Andy Sonnanstine (assuming Sonnanstine makes at least 10 fewer starts than Garza), and higher than Mark Hendrickson, Bryan Rekar, and Ryan Rupe. All of that movement would place Garza third in franchise history.

That collection of names is rather unimpressive and entirely telling at once. It seems foolhardy to anoint someone two seasons into their career as one of the nth best pitchers in franchise history, but under the circumstances there is a strong case to be made that Garza is indeed the third best starter. Remarkably the comparison made to John Smoltz, Steve Avery, and Tom Glavine has come true for the Rays triumvirate of young starters. While Kazmir is doing his best to avoid the new-world Avery tag, Shields and Garza figure to lead the Rays rotation for years to come.

That ideology leads to a contract extension discussion. Garza is youthful with post-season experience and the characteristics of a fine major league pitcher. He throws a heavy, hard fastball with ride and an assortment of complimentary breaking pitches which have combined for streaks of offensive celibacy unrivaled on staff. At one point Garza went on a 10-game run where he struck out 8.4 per nine and walked only 2.5. Garza walked a few more over the rest of the season (3.5 per nine) which is a shame, because 8.4/2.5 joins company with Josh Beckett and Josh Johnson - two of the finer pitchers in baseball.

Garza's xFIP was 4.43 last season, a career best. That's better than a lot of pitchers who get more acclaim. Better than former Ray Edwin Jackson, better than Rick Porcello, better than Scott Baker and Andy Pettitte, Jair Jurrjens, Mark Buehrle, and numerous others. Garza may or may not eventually ascend to the throne in the kingdom of Aceland, but he's pretty good.

That being said, long-term deals for pitchers are always risky. The natural attrition rate and unpredictability means it takes a pretty special talent or contract construction to make it worthwhile. The Rays have seen both sides of that card with Kazmir and Shields. The former was a top arm who fell apart far too quickly while the latter has one of the more failsafe deals in baseball.

Ubaldo Jimenez' deal seems like a template for a Garza deal, although you could argue Ubaldo is a better pitcher and that Garza should get less than 4/10 (Note: Both had comparable inning totals through these seasons):

xFIP	Garza	Jimenez
2007	4.52	4.54
2008	4.58	4.34
2009	4.43	3.64

I don't know whether Garza will get an extension or not, but my hope is when we reflect on the deal down the road it will lead us to the conclusion that the Rays were right once more.

All Ex-Twins Team, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:09:33 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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2008 Roster
2006 Roster

For the second year in a row I tried to put together a full 25-man roster, and while I made the cut this team has some pretty big holes. Generally it's old, which is surprising, and there's going to be some pretty bad defense in places, but if any of the three outfielders get hurt there's nobody to be a fourth outfielder. Luckily, none of the guys on this team have to play a single game.

Without further ado, your batting order:

Name	Pos	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	'09 Team	With Twins
Jason Bartlett	SS	.320	.389	.490	14	66	Rays	'04 - '07
Luis Castillo	2B	.302	.387	.346	1	40	Mets	'06 - '07
Garrett Jones	RF	.293	.372	.567	21	44	Pirates	2007
Torii Hunter	CF	.299	.366	.508	22	90	Angels	'97 - '07
Casey Blake	3B	.280	.363	.468	18	79	Dodgers	'00 - '02
Randy Ruiz	1B	.313	.385	.635	10	17	Blue Jays	2008
David Ortiz	DH	.238	.332	.462	28	99	Red Sox	'97 - '02
A.J. Pierzynski	C	.300	.331	.425	13	49	White Sox	'98 - '03
Craig Monroe	LF	.215	.287	.354	3	16	Pirates	2008

All in all that's not a bad offensive lineup. According to Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, this offense would blow last year's out of the water: 5.741 runs per game, or about 930 runs over the course of a full season. Even with Jones and Monroe being stone defenders in the outfield corners, those runs are going to make up the difference.

The tool also insists that all of the best lineups would have Monroe hitting 8th and Castillo 9th, while a vast majority of the best lineups still have Bartlett leading off, but they also have Ruiz batting cleanup with his massive OBP and SLG in limited time.

Your bench? Outfielder-less. Henry Blanco of the Pirates is your catcher, followed by a trio of infielders: Cristian Guzman (Nationals), Adam Everett (Tigers) and Juan Castro (Dodgers).

Next up? Your starting rotation:

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
Johan Santana	13-9	3.13	166.2	146	46	Mets	'00 - '07
Matt Garza	8-12	3.95	203.0	189	79	Rays	'06 - '07
Kyle Lohse	6-10	4.74	117.2	77	36	Cardinals	'01 - '06
Livan Hernandez	9-12	5.44	183.2	102	67	Mets/Nationals	2008
Sidney Ponson	1-7	7.36	58.2	32	25	Royals	2007

I want you to know that I seriously considered going with a three-man rotation, a three-man bench, and then having a nine-man bullpen, but the reality is that even the bullpen pickings get a little thin once you get six or seven deep. As far as other starters I could have considered, there aren't many guys out there right now. Carlos Silva? Absolutely not.

Last season saw Santana, Lohse and Garza as the top three in the rotation as well. Moving onto the bullpen, last year I had Balfour closing, but this season I'd probably tab Hawkins.

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
LaTroy Hawkins	1-4	2.13	63.1	45	16	Astros	'95 - '03
Craig Breslow	7-5	2.60	55.1	44	18	Athletics	'08 - '09
J.C. Romero	0-0	2.70	16.2	12	13	Phillies	'99 - '05
Joe Beimel	1-6	3.58	55.1	35	19	Nationals/Rockies	2004
Grant Balfour	5-4	4.81	67.1	69	33	Rays	'01 - '04
Eddie Guardado	1-2	4.46	38.1	20	15	Rangers	'93 - '03, '08

Even in limited time, Romero is still managing to escape at least the appearance of damage in spite of some unnerving peripherals. Like the bench and the back of the rotation, this one of this team's weaker spots.

If injuries weren't a factor, how would this team fare over a season? Would an offense like this be able to keep this team afloat with the help of a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation? Or would those unproven bats pair up with some older arms to bring the team's fortunes crashing to earth?

Guys who have made the team each of the three years: Pierzynski, Blake, Ortiz, Beimel, Romero and Hawkins.

Poll

How would this team fare?

They could compete for a division title

169 votes

Probably a .500 team

322 votes

Bottom dwellers, for sure

181 votes

672 votes | Poll has closed

Matt Garza's Slider is Filthy

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:01:49 -0000

These are all pitches thrown at least 200 times (except in Wade Davis' case, the limit was 50). Note: Whiff% is (Swinging Strikes/Total Pitches)*100 and rounded to two decimal points.

To avoid making this a data dump, here's some commentary:

James Shields doesn't have wowing stuff. If you've watched him since 2006 then the newness factor has also wore off. In ways he's undervalued by his own fan base because when watching him few things amaze you. He's a workhouse, a pretty dependable one, but he throws a fastball that averages a little over 90 MPH and an assortment of other pitches. Somehow, someway, Shields has three pitches within the top six. The change-up that made him, a curve, and his cutter. His slider and other fastballs rank far lower and seem to contribute to his so-so reputation. It doesn't help that when he seems to miss with those pitches they wind up in the sky and land far away either.
Matt Garza has the most contactless pitch on staff. The pitches people really know him for - his hard heat and knee-buckling curve - are less impressive. This seems odd.
Wade Davis is just as human as anyone else in this list, he just looks better while pitching. Small sample size and all, I'm not sure how he can possess this stuff and have such mediocre whiff rates in Durham.
Jeff Niemann uses his fastball something like 70% of the time. This is bad because A) he becomes predictable and B) it's his worst pitch. Unsurprisingly, it rates near the bottom of the list. Shields has probably never heard of DRB, but please, James, if you're somehow reading this, teach Niemann the ways of working around your fastball.
David Price's change-up was his least hittable pitch. What?

Fantasy Baseball: Looking at K/9 and GB%

raygu — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:35:11 -0000

Coming into my 2009 drafts, I found a very interesting article over at www.thebaseballanalysts.com which categorized pitchers by their K/9 and GB ratios. The importance of this for roto/fantasy owners is knowing how your pitchers get guys out. Pitchers with high K/9 and high GB ratios usually provide owners with very good win, ERA and WHIP stats, and they are the ones to target come draft day. The reason is they are getting guys out via the strikeout and inducing a high percentage of ground balls which more often than not results in an out. And ground balls don't leave the ballpark.

With that said, I provide you with the top 25 K/9 pitchers in 2009 with their corresponding GB ratios, along with some other advanced pitching stats, courtesy of www.fangraphs.com, after the jump:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	47.50%	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	36.00%	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	47.70%	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41
Yovani Gallardo	9.89	4.56	2.17	45.00%	1.02	0.223	1.31	0.288	77.90%	3.73
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	41.70%	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87
Jonathan Sanchez	9.75	4.85	2.01	40.70%	1.05	0.227	1.37	0.29	72.60%	4.24
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	39.40%	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	40.00%	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	38.30%	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	44.70%	0.97	0.248	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38
Max Scherzer	9.19	3.33	2.76	41.80%	1.06	0.257	1.34	0.323	68.70%	4.12
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	42.90%	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14
A.J. Burnett	8.48	4.22	2.01	42.80%	1.09	0.248	1.4	0.302	75.90%	4.04
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	44.90%	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	47.20%	1.06	0.249	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86
Matt Garza	8.38	3.5	2.39	39.70%	1.11	0.236	1.26	0.284	75.00%	3.95
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	50.30%	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23
Chad Billingsley	8.21	3.94	2.08	45.30%	0.78	0.238	1.32	0.294	71.00%	4.03
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	50.70%	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	53.40%	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	52.50%	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	44.70%	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77
Johan Santana	7.88	2.48	3.17	35.70%	1.08	0.249	1.21	0.296	78.00%	3.13
Aaron Harang	7.87	2.38	3.3	34.90%	1.33	0.289	1.41	0.339	75.70%	4.21
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	50.20%	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79

A couple takeaways from this analysis for me is that Jonathan Sanchez may be due for a breakout year in 2010 if he can continue pitching like he did in the seond half of 2009.

Another takeaway is I would be very afraid of drafting Johan_Santana in 2010 because you will have to spend a high draft pick or $25+ in roto leagues for a guy whose peripheral stats are taking a turn for the worse. His K/9 have decreased in each of the last 2 years, and his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased in the last 2 years.

A couple of Colorado Rockie pitchers broke out in 2009, and I am not sure we have seen the best of Ubaldo_Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa yet. Both strikeout more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and induce ground balls at a pretty high rate in the case for Jiminez, and JDLR's GB ratio isn't that bad either. If they can increase their LOB% in 2010, they will make fantasy owners real happy.

Finally, I have already wrote about Ricky Nolasco, so I will move onto another pitcher whose peripherals scream that he could come cheap in 2010 drafts. That name is Max Scherzer, and he is an intriguing name, as he struck out more than 9 batters per 9 innings, and induced ground balls at a 42% clip in 2009. His LOB% was pretty low in 2009, so I expect a very solid season from Scherzer in 2010.

Poll

Who will get drafted first in 2010: Jonathan Sanchez or Max Scherzer?

Scherzer

57 votes

Sanchez

12 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday Rockpile: Has Dan O'Dowd forged MLB's best small market model?

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 13:25:26 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

We are told Hawpe isn't going anywhere. Should we be surprised? "Dealin" Dan O'Dowd doesn't like dealin' his homegrown talent very much

Browse more photos »

Locking down leading men

Yesterday, Patrick Saunders suggested the Rockies would ink GM Dan O'Dowd and manager Jim Tracy to multi-year deals this week. This morning, the Denver Post strengthened their wording on the issue a bit. Now, a "major league source close to the situation" said the Rockies will sign both leading men to long-term deals, per Saunders and Troy Renck. Okay so that's not a shocker. They do mention the entirety of the MLB coaching staff will return in their current roles, again not surprising after the best regular season in franchise history.

But oh yeah - Tracy Ringolsby already reported that Sunday night.

Dan O'Clown or Bozo Beane?

There's room to argue the sense in giving an MLB contract, but there can be no legitimate beef with Dan O'Dowd. At the time of the Holliday trade in November, some exhibited worry that O'Dowd was playing with fire (Beane) and would likely get burned (Encarnacion/Ortiz/Belitz). It looks like Beane ought to be worried about O'Dowd now.

To further illustrate this point, I'll point you to Fangraphs, where RJ Anderson writes of the Problem with Oakland. Quite frankly, the Athletics just haven't drafted well, and their top prospects haven't panned out since Moneyball. Anderson identified the Rays and Rockies as two teams taking the torch in the small-market-internal-development game, so he compared the three clubs' top 10 prospects (from Baseball America) from 2004-07:

"The Rockies have an extraordinarily high retention rate* of 72.5% while the Rays/A's are equal with 42.5%."

*Retention rate is defined as percentage of prospects still within the organization at the start of 2009.

Moreover, all ten of the Rockies' top ten prospects from 2007 were within the organization this past March, while Oakland and Tampa only had five. That could be part of why the Rockies have two playoff appearances since 2007 to Tampa and Oakland's combined one...

Now time for commentary: Jason Hirsh and Jeff Baker were traded for scraps this season and no one is calling Dan O'Dowd late at night in hopes a brandy-filled evening will allow him to loosen his grip on Greg Reynolds or Chaz Roe. Those four represent an issue with representing small market success by retention rate. Retaining dud or uninspiring prospects isn't really worth rewarding. The Rays lost their top prospect from 2005-2007, but flipping him for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett was unquestionably the right move. Then again, after a decade drafting in the top five, they had the best prospects at their disposal for a long time, and the Rockies were drafting higher than Oakland in the time frame.

So what does this all tell us? The Rockies indeed develop players well, though mostly, it tells us Dan O'Dowd likes holding onto his prospects. That's all. The only top prospects from those four years that were traded prior to 2009 were Matt Holliday and Ryan Shealy (unanimously good trades). It tells us the Rockies seem to hold more firm to the developmental segment of the organization than their peers, which is partly why we fans latch onto our players so much. It also tells me that Dan O'Dowd would really have to break the mold to bring in a Brian Roberts.

Last cold links

Rox look to build on strong second half | ColoradoRockies.com: News
Thomas Harding breaks down the roster position-by-position. Included is the contract issues to keep an eye on. It's a good reference point if you haven't been reading the Row every day.

Mopping Up in 2009 | FanGraphs Baseball
Josh Fogg was mop up man in 2009 - his "MOP score" placed him second in MLB behind Luis Perdomo, who allowed Clint Barmes' inside-the-park home run last month.

Orioles 3, Rays 2: Finally

Stacey — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 02:38:07 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Good job, Chris. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Our long national nightmare is over! The Orioles won their first game since September 16th. I couldn't even remember that game, so I looked back at the recap. Wow. I was happy back then. Sadly, even then Jim Johnson pitched poorly as he blew the save that night and was saved by Matt Wieters' walk off home run.

Matt Garza made the start for the Rays and pitched 6 innings, giving up three runs. He didn't pitch poorly by any means. The only extra base hit he allowed was a first inning double to Cesar Izturis, who would score on a single by Nick Markakis that deflected off of Jason Bartlett's glove. The O's other two runs were scored on singles by Melvin Mora and Jeff Fiorentino. Most days 3 runs wouldn't be enough for this team and its pitching staff, but tonight it held up.

Chris Waters made his first start of the year and came through in a big way. He pitched 5 innings, allowing 1 run on just two hits. He was rolling after 5 innings, but since he hadn't started a game since September 5th in Norfolk, he probably didn't have much left. The effective and decidedly un-Oriole like pitching continued as Cla Meredith, Alberto Castillo, and Danys Baez pitched the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings without allowing a hit.

The O's entered the 9th with a 3-1 lead when poor, sad, awful Jim Johnson came into the game. The perfect way for this losing streak to end would be if JJ had been strong and looked good. If he'd thrown that sinker we all know he's capable of, struck a few guys out, and restored our faith in him.

Yeah, that didn't happen. Johnson allowed a lead off double to Ben Zobrist, who is pretty much my least favorite Ray ever. He retired Upton on a popout, and Willy Aybar hit a fly ball to center field. It wasn't hit deep and Jeff Fiorentino, who was playing on the warning track, couldn't get to it. Zobrist moved to third and then scored on Pat Burrell's sac fly. Gregg Zaun hit a pinch hit ground ball single that just eluded Brian Roberts and the tying run was on third with two outs. Jim Johnson looked miserable. He and Matt Wieters couldn't agree on any pitches so Wieters had to go to the mound. Kranitz also went out for good measure. I've never seen anyone sweat more in a temperature controlled dome than Jim Johnson. But he ultimately got the job done, getting Iwamura to ground out right back to him.

O's win! It wasn't pretty, but it worked. They now head home for the final three games of the season where Jason Berken, Mark Hendrickson, and Jeremy Guthrie will do their best to go out on a good note.

Poll

Hey it's been forever since we've done this, but who was tonight's Most Birdland Player of the game?

Chris Waters (5 IP, 2 H, 1 R)

87 votes

Cesar Izturis (2-3, 2B, BB, R)

6 votes

Melvin Mora (RBI single, several sweet plays at 3B, plus there are only three more days to ever vote for him again)

48 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 DRB Awards: The Scott Kazmir Memorial Award

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 10:00:20 -0000

Also known as: the best starting pitcher on staff.

This one should be a lot more difficult to choose.

Poll

Who was the Rays best starter this year?

James Shields: 204.2 IP, 4.06 FIP, 4.71 tRA, 3.6 WAR

65 votes

Matt Garza: 192.1 IP, 4.11 FIP, 4.33 tRA, 3.3 WAR

78 votes

Jeff Niemann: 165.2 IP, 3.94 FIP, 4.29 tRA, 3.1 WAR

210 votes

353 votes | Poll has closed