SB Nation - Dennys Reyes

Heroes of the Zeros: The Bullpen

Slyde — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 13:00:28 -0000

As we continue our vote on the Reds All Decade Team, we look today at the bullpen. The Reds bullpen was a strength in the early aughts, but it also had some very lean periods in the middle of the decade before rebounding a bit the last two seasons. Below you will see the 28 relievers who managed to pitch 60 or more games out of the bullpen for the Reds between 2000 and 2009. The survey below will have you choose a closer, 2 right-handed relievers, 2 left-handed relievers, and 2 other relievers of your choice. Please be careful not to choose a pitcher for more than one spot as I will only count a single vote for that player.

One note before you vote, I didn't feel like doing the extra work it would take to separate a pitcher's relief appearances from his starts, so some of the stats below include starts as well as relief appearances. This mainly only affects Danny Graves (30 GS), Chris Reitsma (53 GS), and Matt Belisle (43 GS) with a couple other pitchers having a handful of starts in their numbers. Please try to take that into account when considering a player as best you can. Voting can be done after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	W	L	W-L%	SV	IP	ERA	ERA+	FIP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
Jeremy Affeldt	2008	74	1	1	.500	0	78.1	3.33	133	3.72	.260	.323	.410	.733	9.19	2.87	1.03
Matt Belisle	2003-2008	132	16	22	.421	1	341.2	5.06	89	4.54	.302	.351	.472	.823	6.06	2.53	1.24
Bill Bray	2006-2008	111	7	6	.538	3	89.0	3.84	118	3.40	.278	.348	.433	.780	9.20	3.84	0.81
Jim Brower	2001-2002	68	9	10	.474	1	168.2	3.95	114	4.49	.250	.328	.406	.734	6.30	3.74	1.01
Jared Burton	2007-2009	154	10	3	.769	0	161.0	3.47	128	3.73	.238	.322	.368	.690	7.77	3.91	0.73
Todd Coffey	2005-2008	213	12	9	.571	9	206.1	4.62	98	4.58	.311	.366	.476	.842	5.98	2.75	1.22
Francisco Cordero	2008-2009	140	7	10	.412	73	137.0	2.76	158	3.42	.238	.329	.327	.656	8.93	4.47	0.53
Jon Coutlangus	2007	64	4	2	.667	0	41.0	4.39	105	4.57	.250	.373	.362	.735	8.34	5.93	0.66
Danny Graves	2000-2005	318	29	35	.453	147	526.0	4.16	105	4.62	.279	.331	.451	.782	4.59	2.58	1.16
Daniel Ray Herrera	2008-2009	77	4	4	.500	0	69.0	3.52	122	4.00	.283	.354	.419	.772	6.78	3.52	0.78
Mike Lincoln	2008-2009	83	3	6	.333	0	93.1	5.40	81	5.66	.269	.357	.465	.822	6.36	4.15	1.64
Gary Majewski	2006-2008	88	2	6	.250	0	78.0	7.38	61	4.73	.388	.429	.562	.992	5.31	2.54	1.15
Nick Masset	2008-2009	84	6	1	.857	0	93.1	2.31	186	3.65	.213	.276	.334	.610	7.81	2.80	0.87
Hector Mercado	2000-2001	68	3	2	.600	0	67.0	4.16	111	4.26	.262	.354	.418	.772	9.67	5.10	1.07
Kent Mercker	2003-2008	179	5	4	.556	5	142.0	3.36	129	4.72	.256	.336	.447	.783	6.91	3.99	1.27
Phil Norton	2003-2004	86	2	5	.286	0	80.1	4.59	92	4.10	.263	.359	.380	.740	6.16	4.93	0.56
Brian Reith	2001-2004	73	4	12	.250	1	127.2	5.92	73	6.16	.292	.381	.542	.923	5.99	5.01	1.83
Chris Reitsma	2001-2003	125	22	32	.407	12	404.1	4.52	97	4.57	.280	.329	.456	.785	5.19	2.52	1.20
Dennys Reyes	2000-2001	97	4	7	.364	0	96.2	4.75	98	4.74	.254	.363	.395	.757	8.19	5.96	0.93
Arthur Rhodes	2009	66	1	1	.500	0	53.1	2.53	169	3.14	.198	.276	.299	.576	8.10	3.38	0.51
John Riedling	2000-2004	200	13	12	.520	3	274.1	4.13	104	4.37	.256	.345	.385	.730	5.97	4.43	0.69
Brian Shackelford	2005-2006	63	2	0	1.000	0	46.0	4.11	107	5.20	.229	.333	.388	.722	6.26	3.72	1.17
Mike Stanton	2007	69	1	3	.250	0	57.2	5.93	78	4.26	.315	.374	.462	.836	6.24	2.81	0.94
Scott Sullivan	2000-2003	279	22	12	.647	4	338.0	4.05	111	4.21	.246	.326	.408	.734	7.96	3.49	1.14
Ryan Wagner	2003-2005	108	8	4	.667	0	119.0	4.69	90	4.38	.274	.354	.410	.764	7.64	4.24	0.98
David Weathers	2005-2009	325	20	23	.465	61	336.1	3.56	126	4.37	.239	.317	.390	.707	6.21	3.67	0.96
Gabe White	2000-2004	137	10	3	.769	1	128.2	4.34	98	4.25	.256	.289	.467	.756	6.92	1.54	1.47
Scott Williamson	2000-2003	155	13	15	.464	35	229.0	3.14	143	3.53	.209	.326	.329	.655	10.73	5.42	0.71

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.

After Two Days Of Waiting, Dodgers Should Preach Patience

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:00:19 -0000

by Jae C. Hong - AP

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Wed	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

Game one is upon us, finally. The last two days have seemed like an eternity, but game day is finally here. It no longer matters what happened over the final 10, 20, or 30 games, or even the season for that matter. It doesn't matter how many pundits pick against the team with the best record in the National League, and the best run differential in baseball. All that matters now is that the playoffs are here, the Cardinals are here, and the Dodgers get to play at home.

The Dodgers have lost 31 of their last 43 games against the Cardinals, and they will start Chris Carpenter, who is something like 74-2 against the Dodgers with a 0.07 ERA. I may have rounded on those numbers, so don't quote me. I went back to MLB Gameday to look at both of Carpenter's starts against the Dodgers, both Cardinal wins. I looked specifically at how he pitched to the Dodgers' big three outfielders, trying to find a pattern:

vs. Andre Ethier: Carpenter threw 17 pitches, but only five fastballs. Ethier smoked the three fastballs that were strikes for a single, double, and a lineout. Carpenter had success when keeping the ball up on Ethier, inducing a couple infield popups and a groundout

vs. Manny Ramirez: Threw 10 fastballs in 22 pitches. Carpenter had success when challenging Manny on his hands with the inside fastball, inducing a pair of double plays. Manny hit a double off a mistake pitch, a fastball Carpenter left up in the zone.

vs. Matt Kemp: Threw nine fastballs in 29 pitches. Carpenter got Kemp out on off-speed stuff away. Kemp was patient though, seeing those 29 pitches in only six plate appearances.

I'm no scout, but it seems to me the Dodgers strategy against Carpenter is to wait on his fastball. It could be a dangerous plan against someone who walks so few hitters (1.8 walks per nine innings on the season), but it was the same plan that worked against Tim Lincecum at Dodger Stadium nearly three weeks ago.

A better strategy just might be to have Randy Wolf pitch a good game. Tonight is Wolf's first playoff game, in his 11th big league season, so I'm sure the butterflies will be there. Then again, he did give up 16 and 17 runs in the first two innings, respectively, this year, so that might not be anything new. Then again, Wolf almost always settles down and ends up pitching deep into the game, so there is no need to worry.

All quality starts are not created equal, but Wolf is comparable to Carpenter in that department. Wolf threw 24 quality starts, which was 71% of the time, good for eighth in the NL. Carpenter was second in the league, throwing a quality start in 22 of 28 starts, 79% of the time.

The last time the Dodgers hosted game one of a playoff series was in 1996 against the Braves, a 2-1 loss in 10 innings. The Braves' starter that day was John Smoltz, who will be available in the bullpen for tonight's game and might start game four on Sunday.

James Loney has a hit in each of the eight postseason games he has started, and is hitting .382/.447/.559 with 11 runs batted in in nine playoff games.

The Cardinals have two left-handed relievers on their playoff roster, Dennys Reyes and Trever Miller. Andre Ethier, who hit .194/.283/.345 against southpaws this season, has only limited action against both. He is 0-for-1 with walk and a HBP against Reyes, and has one hit in five at-bats against Miller. Ethier did manage to hit lefites well at home, however, hitting .305/.376/.610 with six home runs in 93 plate appearances at Dodger Stadium.

The Dodgers are 4-6 all-time in game ones at Dodger Stadium.

Game Time: 6:37pm

TV: TBS (all NL playoff games will be on TBS)

Baseball Reference Game One Preview

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Left Field)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 00:30:09 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Matt Holliday? Yeah, he's pretty good.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at the left field position.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how WAR is calculated.

Left Field, according to Tom Tango's positional adjustment scale, is given a rank of -7.5, meaning that left field is an easier position to play defensively relative to short stop or center field. The main responsibility of left fielders is not only to catch fly balls but also to deny baserunners advancing to an extra base. Therefore, arm strength and accuracy are desired traits of left fielders.

However, since left field in a ball park is usually the area that requires the shortest throws (and the smallest area to cover) of all the outfield positions, arm strength, accuracy, and range (speed, often) is usually placed on the back burner and offense (particularly power) is emphasized in the major leagues. That is why we get players like Manny Ramirez, old Barry Bonds, Ryan Braun, and Adam Dunn at the left field position.

Of course, there are several excellent defensive left-fielders (Carl Crawford comes to mind) today, and with an increased emphasis on improved defense we might see some better fielders slotted into left.

As for the Rockies, their top five players in games played at left field comprise the top five slots in the rankings...though not completely in order. This is the most productive positional group for the Rockies since the Todd Helton show at first base.

Left Fielders

Note: most if not all of these players played multiple outfield positions with the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker.

1. Matt Holliday

Career WAR: 16.9 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 15.9, 2006-2008 (1st)
Top Season: 7.3, 2007 (2nd)
Average Rank: 1.33

Big Daddy is atop this list, and for good reason. His 2007 season, in which he batted .340/.405/.607 with 36 HRs and 137 RBIs (winning the batting title and the RBI crown) with a .428 wOBA while providing excellent left field defense (TZ of 14) and 7.3 WAR, ranks as the second best season in Rockies history from a left fielder (more on that later). His fine 2006 (.326/.387/.586/.409, 34 HRs, 114 RBI, 3.8 WAR) and 2008 (.321/.409/.538/.418, 25 HRs, 88 RBI, 4.8 WAR) campaigns solidified Holliday as the cream of the crop in left field.

Holliday was acquired in the seventh round of the 1998 draft out of Stillwater High School in Oklahoma (where he also excelled as a quarterback) and well, you all know how he left--as a trade asset, Holliday kept giving to the Rockies, netting Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street, key components for the contending 2009 Rockies and hopefully beyond.

2.Ellis Burks

Career WAR: 10.8 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 10, 1996-1998 (2nd)
Top Season: 7.6, 1996 (1st)
Average Rank: 1.67

The reason that Burks is rated as a left fielder and not in center field (where he played more games) is that in his career season (1996) he played mostly in left field. That and the next best guy in these rankings would be Butch Huskey with 0.8. Burks was acquired by the Rockies through free agency on a five year, $18.6 million contract after the 1993 season after six excellent, though injury-plagued seasons (the first five with Boston). The injury bug continued to bite Burks during the 1994 campaign, limiting Ellis to 42 games played, and the rest of his Colorado tenure (though he played in over 100 games in his subsequent four seasons with the team).

Burks qualifies in my mind as a charter member of the Blake Street Bombers, bashing over 30 home runs in both 1996 and 1997, his healthiest years with the team. His 1996 season in particular was the greatest ever by a Rockies left-fielder. Burks put up an insane batting line of .344/.408/.639 with 40 HRs (93 XBH), 128 RBI, 32 SB, and an astounding .449 wOBA. Add in his stellar defense (TZ of 12) and Burks produced 7.6 WAR in 1996. Burks was elected to the All-Star game (one of two such selections in his career), won the Silver Slugger, and finished third in MVP voting.

Burks was traded at the 1998 trade deadline to the San Francisco for Daryl Hamilton and Jim Stoops. Ellis produced very well for the Giants and later the Indians (17.1 WAR after leaving Colorado) before retiring in 2004 with the Red Sox and getting a World Series ring.

Burks' career with the Rockies remains a little disappointing--if only the outfielder had been healthy, he could have surpassed even Holliday's accomplishments with the team.

3. Jay Payton

Career WAR: 3.8 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 3.8, 2002-2003 (3rd)
Top Season: 2.4, 2002 (4th)
Average Rank: 3.33

Jay Payton was only a Rockie for a short while--he was acquired at the 2002 deadline with Mark Corey and Robert Stratton from the Mets in exchange for John Thomson and Mark Little and stayed through the 2003 season--but he was very productive for the Rockies, enjoying the best years of his career in Colorado.

In particular, Payton played extremely well in August and September of 2002, posting a .335/.376/.606/.413 line over 181 PA--which combined with his solid defense came out to a WAR contribution of 2.4 for two months of work. Payton followed that up with a very solid 2003, in which he batted .302/.354/.512/.369 with 28 HRs and 89 RBI, after which time the Rockies granted Payton free agency.

4a. Todd Hollandsworth

Career WAR: 3.5 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.5, 2000-2002 (4th)
Top Season: 1.3, 2000 (5th)
Average Rank: 4.33

The 1996 Rookie of the Year winner, Todd Hollandsworth was traded to the Rockies at the 2000 trade deadline with a couple of prospects for Tom Goodwin and cash. Like Payton, the other Todd did well in his first two months with the team, batting .323/.365/.569/.396.

Hollandsworth only played 33 games in 2001 and after an average half season in 2002 he was traded at the 2002 trade deadline, when he was traded with Dennys Reyes to the Rangers for Gabe Kapler, Jason Romano, and cash.

Did you know? Hollandsworth is current Rockies reliever Matt Herges' brother-in-law.

4b. Dante Bichette

Career WAR: 1.8 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.3, 1993-1995 (5th)
Top Season: 2.7, 1993 (3rd)
Average Rank: 4.33

Bichette was acquired in the 1993 expansion draft from the Milwaukee Brewers and was the Rockies' starting left (or right) fielder until after the 1999 season, when he was traded to the Reds with cash for Stan Belinda and Jeffrey Hammonds.

In the mind of many Rockies fans, Alphonse Dante Bichette is the greatest ever Colorado left-fielder, or at least on par with Matt Holliday. Theoldgrizzlybear profiled Bichette in an edition of Rockies Retro. His 14th inning walk-off home run to christen Coors Field in 1995 is an integral piece of Rockies lore. Dante rocked a mullet and wore a "Bichette Happens" T-Shirt--what more was there to love? Heck, Bichette was a charter member of the Blake Street Bombers, belting over 20 HRs in each of his seven years with the team.

Then why is he ranked so low according to WAR? Bichette's 1.8 WAR with the Rockies would be about league average over one season, but it is horrible production over seven full campaigns. Dante is an excellent case study on where the advanced stats and the traditional baseball stats severely diverge.

Take Bichette's final season with the Rockies, 1999. Dante hit .298/.354/.541/.376 with 34 HRs and 133 RBI, yet the net result was a WAR of -2.8, by far the worst season that I've measure for any Rockies player. A lot of this has to do with Bichette's historically awful defense (TZ of -32!) and poor baserunning (-6 RAA), but not all. After all, Bichette finished with -1 batting runs above average--in other words, his production was below league average at the plate as well. From Sean Smith's glossary:

Bat runs - This is park adjusted linear weights batting runs, using customized weights at the team level to ensure that total runs credited to players will equal the actual runs scored for that team.

In other words, Bichette was the ultimate Coors Field creation, his gaudy numbers almost entirely the product of one of the greatest hitting environments in ML history. Bichette's best year outside of Colorado was 0.5 WAR. Actually, due to the park factor built into the WAR calculation, Bichette's best season was his first with the Rockies in 1993, in which his line of .310/.348/.526/.377 with 21 HRs and 89 RBI (plus average defense) at Mile High Stadium was worth 2.7 WAR.

Bichette's excellent first season was cancelled out by his awful last season. In other seasons with the Rockies he never had more than 0.7 WAR. Rockies fans, I'm sorry for soiling your good memories of Dante Bichette, but it needed to be said--he just wasn't that good.

Other Rockies left-fielders that posted positive WAR for the club are Butch Huskey (0.8), Jerald Clark (0.7), Ron Gant (0.5), and Seth Smith (0.4).

Now that I've ruined your positive perception of Dante Bichette, I'll be moving on to center fielders next week.

Relief Is The Dodger Theme Of The Day

Eric Stephen — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 05:09:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

The Bison delivered big in the 10th inning tonight, giving the Dodgers a 5-3 win.

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The overriding theme of the day for the Dodgers on Thursday was relief. The day concluded with a 5-3 win -- finally -- over the Cardinals, a relief for the club, who had lost 17 of their previous 20 games in Mound City. But before that result, the day was so filled with relief that it should have been sponsored by Rolaids®.

Earlier in the day, the Dodgers picked up talented lefty reliever George Sherrill, for third baseman Josh Bell and pitcher Steve Johnson, providing the Dodger bullpen with some extra depth in the back end. Sherrill will join the club Friday in Atlanta.

Hiroki Kuroda had his second good outing in a row, allowing only two runs in his six innings of work. It seemed like Kuroda could have pitched much longer, having thrown only 72 pitches, but the struggling Dodger offense needed all the help it could get, so Joe Torre sent Juan Pierre to pinch-hit in the seventh inning. The move paid off, as Pierre singled and later scored on Rafael Furcal's two-run double.

In a tie game in the eighth inning, Dodger fans breathed a sigh of relief at the return of Hong-Chih Kuo. Kuo entered the game after a Nick Stavinoha's leadoff double. After a sacrifice to advance the runner, Kuo blew away pinch-hitter Ryan Ludwick, setting up a potential showdown with Albert Pujols with two outs. However, rather than summon a righthander to face Pujols, Kuo had his Rick Vaughn "I want Parkman" moment, intentionally walking both Pujols and Matt Holliday to face lefty Rick Ankiel, who had homered in his last at-bat, with the bases loaded. Three electrifying fastballs later, and Kuo got out of the jam with a clutch strikeout. Since his return this week, Kuo has faced ten batters. Outside of the two intentional walks, Kuo has retired all eight batters, three by strikeout.

Matt Kemp had three hits and three RBI, including both a run-scoring single in the second inning and an eventual game-winning two-run single in the 10th, giving the Dodgers some much-needed success with runners in scoring position.

Casey Blake had four hits, giving him seven hits over the last two games.

The four game losing streak is over, and the Dodgers are leaving St. Louis. For that, we breathe a sigh of relief.

Jason Schmidt faces Tommy Hanson Friday in Atlanta.

WP - James McDonald (3-2): 1 perfect IP

LP - Dennys Reyes (0-2): 0.1 IP, 1 hit, 2 runs, 1 walk, 1 strikeout

Sv - Jonathan Broxton (24): 1 IP, 1 walk

Box Score

A Quick Peek At The Cards

Eric Stephen — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 18:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Stan "The Man" Musial.

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The Dodgers head to St. Louis for a four game series beginning tonight, in a place that has been a house of horrors for the Dodgers the last couple of years. The Dodgers have dropped 14 of their last 17 games at differing versions of Busch Stadium.

Analyzing the Cardinals up to this point is instructive to a point, but their recent acquisition of outfielder Matt Holliday changes things quite a bit. The middle of the Cards' lineup now looks as formidable as any team in the National League:

Pos	Player	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
1B	Pujols	.325	.445	.693	1.138	.458
LF	Holliday	.297	.336	.471	.857	.378
RF	Ludwick	.275	.339	.500	.839	.366

Of course, having Albert Pujols makes any lineup formidable, but the team certainly looks much improved. Add in recent acquisitions Mark DeRosa and Julio Lugo, and the offense looks even better.

The Cardinals pitching staff is led by brilliant yet fragile ace Chris Carpenter, who is 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA so far in July. Carpenter is led at the top by Adam Wainwright, who is quietly putting together an outstanding season (11-6, 3.55), and a resurgent Joel Pineiro, who has a 2.95 ERA built on shockingly low amounts of walks, homers, and strikeouts. The Cardinals starting staff lead the National League in inning per start, at 6.2.

The bullpen is led by closer Ryan Franklin, who has been outstanding this season (2.97 FIP, 22 saves), with major contributions from lefties Trever Miller (3.25 FIP) and Dennys Reyes (3.88 FIP), and Kyle McClellan (4.15 FIP).

The Cardinals are coming off a 2-5 road trip, but Monday's game marks the first game at home for new acquisitions Holliday and Lugo, so expect a raucous crowd.

2009 Cardinals
Record	53-48, 2nd NL Central, ½ GB
Pythag Record	53-48 (5th in NL)
Runs Scored	4.40/gm (8th in NL)
wOBA	.322 (10th in NL)
Runs Allowed	4.20/gm (6th in NL)
FIP	4.00 (5th in NL)
Defensive Efficiency	.697 (8th in NL)

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Viva El Birdos is the SB Nation Cardinals blog. Here are some recent posts:

ChuckB takes a look at the Julio Lugo for Chris Duncan trade
A look at the potential of Troy Glaus playing the outfield (unlikely now with the Holliday acquisition)

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Pitching Probables

Monday: Randy Wolf (5-4, 4.24) vs. Chris Carpenter (8-3, 2.70 FIP), 4:05pm

Tuesday: Chad Billingsley (10-5, 3.50 FIP) vs. Adam Wainwright (11-6, 3.61 FIP), 5:15pm

Wednesday: Clayton Kershaw (8-5, 3.38 FIP) vs. Joel Pineiro (9-9, 2.99 FIP), 5:15pm

Thursday: Hiroki Kuroda (3-5, 3.55 FIP) vs. Kyle Lohse (4-6, 4.51 FIP), 5:15pm

Lugo and the Lefties

chuckb — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 06:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

I suspect we'll like Lugo more when he's doing this than when he's fielding so I didn't exactly go out of my way to try and find a picture of him w/ a glove.(AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

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Ok, first things first…How bad is Julio Lugo? I know the trendy answer is to say, "REALLY F-ING BAD!" but I’m just not convinced that’s the case. Can we all agree that Brendan Ryan’s had a pretty good season? Ok, so he’s not the greatest hitter in the world (.299 wOBA, -5.5 wRAA this year) but he’s a very good fielder. So far this season he’s been worth nearly 9 runs above average on defense, 6.8 of them while playing the field’s 2nd toughest position. From a defensive standpoint, only 2 shortstops have been worth more runs than Ryan and his UZR/150 (15.0) is higher than any qualified shortstop in the big leagues. Right now, Ryan’s been worth 1.5 WAR and $6.6 – equal to the D-backs Stephen Drew. He’s on a pace -- despite a recent offensive slump -- to finish above 2 WAR, thus making him an above average major league shortstop. The question, therefore, becomes, how much better than Lugo is Ryan?

It goes without saying that Ryan is a better defensive shortstop than Lugo is. For his career, Lugo is actually an above average shortstop, registering a UZR/150 of 2.6 but there is a significant downward trend in his defensive numbers. He was a below average shortstop in 2006 and 2008 but slightly above average in 2005 and 2007. In 32 games this season, he’s been awful (minus 8.3 runs) but it’s reasonable to believe that Lugo would be no worse than 8 or 10 runs below average for a full season. That’s still at least a win and a half worse than Ryan, however.

Offensively, Lugo is considerably better than Ryan. His career BB rate is 8.5% and his career OBP is .335 but he’s only had 1 season w/ an OBP below .340 in the last 5. His career wOBA is .323 and in 123 PAs this season it’s been .329. Lugo’s career line drive rate is 19.4%. He’s been basically a league average offensive player – not league average offensive SHORTSTOP, but league average HITTER – every season of his career except for 2001 and 2007. In fact, R.J. Anderson makes the case over at fangraphs that Lugo is a league average offensive player. So, if that’s true, and Lugo is a league average offensive player and 10 runs below average defensively – add about 20 runs for the difference between replacement level and league average and 7.5 runs for the positional adjustment for Lugo playing shortstop, and Lugo would be roughly 17.5 runs above replacement level – 2.5 runs below average for a full season. Basically, Lugo is likely a slightly below league average player – probably less than a win worse than Ryan. All in all, considering the fact that Boston’s paying his entire salary, we’re getting about an $8 M player for nothing, except Chris Duncan and a PTBNL. Not at all shabby, IMO.

Throw in the fact that he can play 2B and 3B (if he really has to, but I’ll bet he makes at least 1 appearance either at 3rd or in LF) and that he has a career .716 OPS against lefties and we have a guy who can be a pretty good value to the team going forward. He’s certainly better than Tyler Greene or Brian Barden (or Joe Thurston, btw) and, if Tony allows it, should play 2B in Skip’s stead whenever a lefty’s on the mound. It’s worth noting, additionally, that the difference between a shortstop and a left fielder is 15 runs in favor of the shortstop meaning that Duncan would have to be a win and a half better than Lugo on offense and defense for them to just be of equal value. And he’s not…period. Never has been and probably never will be.

Word is that Big Dunc is not at all happy about the trade and that Tony’s not thrilled either but this trade unquestionably makes the team better in the short run. Consider also that Lugo is signed for next year and the Red Sox are picking up the tab and we at least have a pretty good bench option settled for next year as well. I’ll reserve full judgment on the deal until we hear who the PTBNL is but my initial reaction is that it’s a good move for the team.

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The other thing I wanted to address this morning is something that’s gone, basically, without notice (or at least very little fanfare) and that’s the state of our left handed relief. This year’s tandem of Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes has been significantly better than last year’s duo of Randy Flores and Ron Villone. The stats below tell us all we need to know: (the BA, OBP, and SLG are against left handed hitters)

	K/9	BB/9	FIP	BA	OBP	SLG
Miller ‘09	10.36	2.96	3.33	.123	.164	.211
Reyes ‘09	8.06	3.63	3.89	.222	.283	.259
Flores ‘08	5.96	7.01	5.27	.314	.422	.549
Villone ‘08	9.00	6.66	4.51	.176	.311	.318

Randy Flores could do his own stand-up comedy with his version of Jeff Foxworthy’s "You Know You’re a Redneck When…" by calling his routine "You Know You Suck When…" You know you suck when this year’s southpaws have OPSes that are lower than your SLG!

Together Miller and Reyes have been worth nearly 4 runs above average which sounds like it isn’t much, but when you consider the fact that they’ve thrown less than 47 innings combined, it’s impressive. They also tend to work some of the highest leverage situations, both having gmLIs above 1 and, in fact, only Franklin has a higher LI than Reyes. They work under pretty constant pressure and have been more productive than every other reliever on our staff except for Franklin. There just aren’t many lefty specialists who’ve been better than Miller and Reyes this season. They’ve been a significant upgrade (3.8 runs below average in ‘08) over Flores and Villone and it’s something that should be noticed and that Mo should be given credit for since the 2 of them are signed for a total of $1.5 M this season.

Astros offense explodes, the bullpen implodes, but Wandy still gets the W: Cards 6 — Astros 11

DyingQuail — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 03:46:40 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Sa-sa-sa-sa-saaaaa-see-ya

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We could almost just go ahead and gloss over the first six innings of this game because it wasn't until the seventh that this one got...interesting is about the mildest way to put it. Wandy didn't have his best stuff in the first few innings, but he dialed it in to cruise through 7IP and even contributed offensively in what would be an explosive bottom of the seventh.

Let's break it down:

Wandy Rodriguez's line: 7IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 5K, 0BB with 6GB and 10FB on 104 pitches (71 strikes).
Hunter Pence started the Astros off with a 2-run HR in the second to give the Astros a lead they would never relinquish (try as Chad Paronto might, though).
Miguel Tejada was 2/5 with 3 RBIs on two singles and a sac fly.
Chris Coste did an admirable job standing in for Lance Berkman with an RBI double in the fourth and played solid defense.
Carlos Lee hit a 316 foot grand slam to ice—or what seemed like icing at the time—the Cardinals after TLR ordered an IBB of Miguel Tejada. Way to make'em pay big guy.
Geoff Blum had an amazing snare to rob Jason LaRue of a double in the top of the seventh and hit a homerun in the bottom of the frame before Carlos Lee could even finish his curtain call.

Chad Paronto entered the 8th in what looked like a ball game that was over, but oh it wasn't. Oh was it not:

Brendan Ryan doubled a ball that caromed off the Crawford Boxes and made Carlos Lee look a little silly in the field.
Skip Schumaker walked and then a passed ball advanced Ryan to third.
Nick Stavinoha hit a sac fly to score Ryan.
In stepped Albert Pujols which was nerve racking, but a 1B to left limited the damage to runners at first and second.
Ryan Ludwick clocked a HR.
Mark DeRosa tattooed his second HR of the night into our bullpen off Wesley Wright.
Thankfully the Cardinals bullpen hasn't heard of momentum and Miguel Tejada's sac fly was able to take the proverbial wind out of the Cardinals proverbial sails. I was kind of hoping that TLR would sucker punch Dennys Reyes when he pulled him.

The good news in all of that is that it really had no real impact on our odds of winning the game. Going into the 8th the Astros had a 99.9% chance of winning, and the low point after DeRosa bomb was 97.6%. See for yourself:

via www.fangraphs.com

With the Cubs extra inning loss to the Phillies and the Astros series clinching victory (how's that for the keynote address I was looking for?) here's how the NL Central shakes out:

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	51	45	.531	0	Lost 2
Houston	48	46	.510	2	Won 2
Milwaukee	48	46	.510	2	Won 1
Chicago	47	45	.510	2	Lost 2
Cincinnati	44	48	.478	5	Lost 1
Pittsburgh	41	52	.440	8.5	Lost 1

(updated 7.21.2009 at 10:42 PM CDT)

With Roy on the mound tomorrow against Carpenter, the great match-up will have a lot riding on it (we could be one game out!!!!).

Cardinals vs Astros boxscore ; Cardinals vs Astros recap ; Cardinals vs Astros coverage ; Viva El Birdos

First Half Relievers

chuckb — Sun, 12 Jul 2009 06:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher Kyle McClellan celebrates the fact that he hasn't been been worked as a pack mule the way he was during last season's first half. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Yesterday we discussed the virtues of the Cards’ starting rotation for the first half of the season so I thought it fitting to talk today about the pen. Unfortunately, the pen in the first half of the season hasn’t been quite as good as the rotation. For example, the Cards’ pen has only been worth 1.6 runs above replacement – TOTAL – for the entire first half. That’s 25th in the majors. Despite the pen’s 3.76 ERA, their FIP is 4.39, tied for 20th in the majors. And all this takes into consideration the fact that Ryan Franklin has pitched far beyond expectations during the first half and should regress during the 2nd half.

The best relievers on the team over the first half have been Franklin (5.3 RAR) and the 2 lefties – Trever Miller (2.1 RAR) and Dennys Reyes (1.1 RAR). Aside from those 3, the Cards’ pen has been rather pedestrian w/ only Kyle McClellan getting meaningful innings out of the pen and pitching above replacement level.

In comparing the division’s bullpens I wanted to look at the top 4 relievers (by RAR, provided they have a meaningful number of innings pitched) since those are the ones most likely to get meaningful innings during the second half of the season. This means examining each team’s closer, set up man, and a couple of specialists. After all, it doesn’t really matter how well Blake Hawksworth pitched yesterday afternoon since the team had very little chance to win the game when he entered anyway. It does, however, matter how well Franklin, Motte, McClellan, and the 2 lefties pitch in the 2nd half.

Cards	RAR	Brewers	RAR	Cubs	RAR	Reds	RAR	Astros	RAR	Pirates	RAR
Franklin	5.3	Hoffman	8.5	Guzman	4.3	Cordero	7.8	Sampson	8.9	Grabow	0.8
Miller	2.1	Coffey	8.1	Heilman	1.0	Masset	7.5	Fulchino	3.2	Chavez	0.1
Reyes	1.1	Stetter	5.8	Gregg	0.6	Rhodes	3.5	Hawkins	2.4	Meek	-0.6
McClellan	0.4	DiFelice	4.6	Marmol	-0.2	Herrera	3.3	Valverde	0.9	Capps	-2.0

So the picture for the bullpen isn’t quite so rosy as that for the rotation. As with yesterday, these numbers can’t be seen as being predictive of what might happen in the second half. They’re simply a reporting of what happened during the first half. I’d expect, for example, for Jose Valverde’s numbers to rise since he was hurt for about 6 weeks during the first half. The team totals for their respective pens are as follows:

Brewers – 27.0 RAR
Reds – 22.1 RAR
Astros – 15.4 RAR
Cards – 8.9 RAR
Cubs – 5.7 RAR
Pirates – minus 1.7 RAR

So just as the Cards’ hopes seem to ride on the backs of their starters, the Brewers’ seem to ride on the backs of their pen, which has been fantastic during the first half. The same appears to be true for the Reds, though w/ their young pitching, they’re awfully scary. I’d also expect the Cubs’ Carlos Marmol to pitch better during the 2nd half, though he put a scare into the hearts of Cubbie fans worldwide w/ his 9th inning hijinx yesterday. Adding in the totals of the starters, this brings each team’s rotation’s numbers to:

Cards – 87.1 RAR
Cubs – 72.9 RAR
Astros – 66.8 RAR
Reds – 50.4 RAR
Pirates – 49.5 RAR
Brewers – 42.7 RAR

The big lead our starters had over the Brewers and Reds and, to a lesser degree, the Astros, shrunk quite a bit b/c of the performance of the pens. Needless to say, we’re going to need McClellan and Motte to pitch better over the 2nd half of the season than they did in the first half. Overall, I think Motte’s done pretty well except for 3 blow-ups and should improve, provided he doesn’t wear down as McClellan did last year. We’re going to depend on McClellan to NOT wear down, despite the fact that he leads the team’s relievers in IP w/ 41. For what it’s worth, at the All-Star break last year McClellan had thrown 52 innings so I’m glad to see that he’s thrown about 20% fewer so far this season. If our starters can continue to pitch well, the team will demand less from our pen and that should help ease Motte’s workload as well. Still, I wouldn’t expect the pen to be the team’s strength over the 2nd half of the season.

Double header today. First game at noon and then the nightcap at 7. There will be separate game threads for each. Join us and let’s get to the All-Star break w/ a split and I’ll be happy.

Pujols Nukes Slowey

Jesse — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 22:11:38 -0000

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5 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols watches his first home run of a baseball game against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning Saturday, June 27, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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That was the definition of getting Pujol'd.

John Madden used to pontificate about what would happen when the unstoppable force came into contact with the immoveable object. Well this afternoon, we saw what happens when Albert Pujols played both roles. He wasn't about to be moved by what Kevin Slowey was pitching, and I probably don't need to explain why he was unstoppable.

The weather wasn't doing favors to the pitchers. When it's as hot and humid as it was in St. Louis on Saturday afternoon, it can be hard to concentrate pitch after pitch after pitch. Both Todd Wellemeyer and Slowey would attest to this, as neither of them managed to see the fourth inning. Unfortunately, Slowey is the one who pitched longest, which meant he was on the mound in the third inning to see Pujols come around for the second time. That first bomb was on a slider right down the middle of the plate, so naturally Slowey mixed it up the second time around. It was a first pitch fastball, up in the zone, and Pujols pulled it to left for his 28th home run of the season.

Take one moment to appreciate the greatness that is the AP of the baseball world. What's it like to slug .700? Just ask him.

On the plus side, Brendan Harris managed to give the Twins a momentary glimmer of hope. Down 2-0 following Pujols' first shot, Harris blooped a bases-loaded single and with the help of a diving Chris Duncan. All three runners crossed the plate to five the visitors a brief 3-2 lead. Bobby Keppel actually pitched four innings of shutout baseball, giving the Twins offense a chance to take back the game. They never did, and in fact Keppel was the only man to reach base after the fourth inning by taking a walk in the seventh.

Josh Kinney, Trever Miller, Kyle McClellan, Dennys Reyes, Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin combined to give the Cardinals 6.2 innings of scoreless baseball. Which is fantastic, for St. Louis. But considering who some of those guys are, and how they pitched, the Twins have to be disappointed about missed opportunities.

One chance to take back the series, coming tomorrow. See you there.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (1-for-1, .044 WPA)
#2: Brendan Harris (2-for-4, 3 RBI, .209 WPA)
#1: Bobby Keppel (4 IP, 2 H, 3 K, 3 BB, 0 R; 0-for-0, BB, .127 WPA)