SB Nation - Chad Gaudin

Girardi made the right call

Ed Valentine — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:23:47 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi takes the game ball from starter A.J. Burnett during the third inning of Game 5 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the Philadelphia Phillies Monday, Nov. 2, 2009, in Philadelphia.

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Everybody has an opinion on New York Yankee Manager Joe Girardi's decision to stick with three starting pitchers in the World Series, meaning A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia (if necessary) are all working on short rest.

Mine is this. I love it.

Of course we know it did not work out last night, when Burnett imploded and gave up six runs in two innings. Did that have anything to do with pitching on short rest? Impossible to say.

What you can say is this. Burnett had pitched on short rest four times previously in his career, and had pitched to a 2.33 ERA. Most likely last night was just a case of the 'Bad A.J.' showing up an inopportune time.

Still, love the fact that Girardi is going to sink or swim the rest of the way with his best guys.

In that regard, I have to agree with Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.

A.J. Burnett was awful in Game 5, and while many will now second-guess Joe Girardi’s decision to start him on short rest, you won’t see any of that in this space. Burnett said he felt fine physically, he just couldn’t throw strikes. He went through the same thing on regular rest in Anaheim in Game 5 of the ALCS, so I’ll take him at his word that the short rest wasn’t the cause for his brutal outing. He had a terrible game, plain and simple. Can anybody tell me that they would have felt as confident with Chad Gaudin - who has thrown one inning in the postseason and 2 1/3 innings since Sept. 28 - starting Game 5 of the World Series? If you can answer that question with a "Yes," then you should have your head examined. If anything, the decision to use Burnett on short rest is an indictment of the Yankees’ lack of pitching depth, something that took a huge hit with Chien-Ming Wang’s injury and Joba Chamberlain’s terrible second half. If they had a fourth starter they trusted, it would have been an easy call to start him in Game 4 or 5. But they don’t, so they’re going to live or die with the three guys that got them to this point.

To me, that perfectly covers all of the essential points.

Now, will I be nervous Wednesday night when Andy Pettitte takes the mound? Sure. But, I'm still happier about an extra start from Pettitte -- even on short rest -- than I would be simply have seen Girardi mostly forfeit a game by using Gaudin.

If Pettitte doesn't get it done Wednesday I will be on the verge of a breakdown Thursday for Game 7. That, though, is the game Brian Cashman signed CC Sabathia to pitch. So, you still have to feel good about the Yankees right now.

They need one win. Philly needs two. In Yankee Stadium. Advantage Yankees.

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

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In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.

The Season May End Tonight: World Series Game 5 Preview, Yankees vs. Phillies, Monday 11/2, 6:57 CT

Al — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:49 -0000

More photos » by Joseph Kaczmarek - AP

Look carefully... you may not see a major league baseball game again after tonight, until 2010.

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Grudgingly, I give the Yankees credit. Every time they've needed to come up with a big hit in a key situation in this series -- in fact, in the entire postseason -- they've done so. George Steinbrenner & Sons have bought themselves a championship this year, if they win tonight, by buying CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, two of the most important components of this Yankee team.

Still, they have to get past Cliff Lee tonight first -- and Lee has been the best pitcher in the 2009 postseason, winning three of his four starts, throwing two complete games, and allowing only two earned runs in 33.1 innings. I think we'll have at least one more game after today, game six in New York on Wednesday, because I think the Phillies will win tonight. And after that, who knows? Both Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia would have to pitch on short rest in games six and seven -- unless Joe Girardi wants to give Chad Gaudin a start, something I'd think would be about on par with Joe having both his arms sawed off.

Coming back from a 3-1 deficit in the World Series has been accomplished five times: 1925, 1958, 1968, 1979, and 1985. There have been 36 seven-game World Series that ended up four games to three, so based on history, there's about a one-in-seven shot for the Phillies to pull off the comeback.

I hope they do -- not only because I've been rooting for them, but because there hasn't been a seven-game series in seven years and I'd like to see one.

Yankees at Phillies, 6:57 pm CDT. Yankees lead series 3-1. TV: Fox. Announcers: Joe Buck and Tim McCarver.

MLB.com Gameday

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Please visit our SB Nation Phillies site The Good Phight and Yankees site Pinstripe Alley.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Player Development Origins for the 2009 New York Yankees

John Sickels — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 17:18:15 -0000

More photos » by Wilfredo Lee - AP

Derek Jeter, New York Yankees first round draft pick in 1992. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

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Here are the player development origins of the 2009 American League Champion New York Yankees. I'll do a comparison of the Yankees and Phillies tomorrow.

PITCHERS

Alfredo Aceves, RHP: Signed out of Mexico as a free agent in 2008.

A.J. Burnett, RHP: Drafted by the New York Mets in the eighth round out of high school in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1995. The Yankees signed him as a major league free agent for 2009.

Joba Chamberlain, RHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the supplemental first round in 2006 from the University of Nebraska.

Phil Coke, LHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the 26^th round in 2002, out of San Joaquin Delta Community College.

Chad Gaudin, RHP: Drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 34^th round in 2001, from high school in Harahan, Louisiana. The Yankees traded for him in the summer of 2009.

Phil Hughes, RHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the first round of the 2004 draft, from high school in Santa Ana, California.

Damaso Marte, LHP: Signed by the Seattle Mariners as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1992. Yankees acquired him in a 2008 trade.

Andy Pettitte, LHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the 22^nd round in 1991 out of high school in Texas, signed as a draft-and-follow from San Jacinto JC in '92. Went to Houston as a free agent in 2004 but re-signed by the Yankees for 2007.

Mariano Rivera, RHP: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent from Panama in 1990.

David Robertson, RHP: Drafted by the Yankees in the 17^th round in 2006, from the University of Alabama.

C.C. Sabathia, LHP: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the first round of the 1998 draft, out of high school in Vallejo, California. Signed by the Yankees as a major league free agent for 2009.

POSITION PLAYERS

Melky Cabrera, OF: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2001.

Robinson Cano, 2B: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2001.

Francisco Cervelli, C: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent out of Venezuela in 2004.

Johnny Damon, OF: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the supplemental first round in 1992, out of high school in Orlando, Florida. The Yankees signed him as a major league free agent in 2006.

Brett Gardner, OF: Drafted by the Yankees in the third round in 2005, from the College of Charleston.

Freddy Guzman, OF: Signed by the San Diego Padres as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2000. Acquired in a trade in late August 2009.

Jerry Hairston JR, INF: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the 11^th round in 1997, from Southern Illinois University. Acquired by the Yankees in a trade in July 2009.

Derek Jeter, SS: Drafted by the Yankees in the first round in 1992, out of high school in Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Hideki Matsui, OF: Signed by the Yankees as a free agent from Japan in 2002. I am counting him as a "major league free agent" on the list below, not as a Yankee farm system product, since he was already an established star in Japan.

Jose Molina, C: Drafted by the Chicago Cubs in the 14^th round in 1993, from high school in Vega Alta, Puerto Rico. The Yankees acquired him in a trade from the Angels in 2007.

Jorge Posada, C: Drafted by the Yankees in the 24^th round in 1990, out of high school in Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the first round in 1993, out of high school in Miami, Florida. The Yankees acquired him in a trade with the Rangers in 2004.

Nick Swisher, OF: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the first round of the 2002 draft, from Ohio State University. Acquired in a trade with the White Sox in November 2008.

Mark Teixeira, 1B: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the first round in 2001, from Georgia Tech. Signed by the Yankees as a free agent in December 2008.

ACQUISITIONS

Trades or Waivers: Gaudin, Marte, Guzman, Hairston, Molina, Rodriguez, Swisher.

Yankees Farm System Products: Aceves, Chamberlain, Coke, Hughes, Rivera, Robertson, Cabrera, Cano, Cervelli, Gardner, Jeter, Posada.

Major League Free Agents: Burnett, Pettitte, Sabathia, Damon, Matsui, Teixeira.

ORIGINS

Drafted from North American high schools: Burnett (8^th), Gaudin (34^th), Hughes (1^st), Sabathia (1^st), Damon (1-S), Jeter (1^st), Molina (14^th), Posada (24^th), Rodriguez (1^st),

Drafted from junior colleges: Coke (26^th), Pettitte (22^nd).

Drafted from four-year colleges: Chamberlain (1-S), Robertson (17^th), Gardner (3^rd), Hairston (11^th), Swisher (1^st), Teixeira (1^st).

Undrafted free agents from North America: none.

Latin Free Agents: Aceves, Marte, Rivera, Cabrera, Cano, Cervelli, Guzman,

Asian Free Agents: Matsui

Why tonight's game is so important

Travis G — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 19:49:12 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

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If the Yankees win tonight, it will allow CC Sabathia to pitch game one of the World Series, game four (on short rest), and game seven (on normal rest). If the Yankees lose, CC will pitch tomorrow, and would only be able to pitch twice in the Series. In addition, they would need a fourth starter (probably Chad Gaudin).

The situation may also be FUBAR if tonight's game is rained out, where Sabathia (unless Joe changes it up) wouldn't pitch until Monday (and the World Series starts Wednesday).

We're Not Worthy

jscape2000 — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 15:00:27 -0000

This Yankee pitching staff has been incredible.

Ponder if you will:

10 runs in 51 IP.

I think the story of the night is the bullet the Yankees dodged by winning when they did. Joe G's willingness to use Joba for less than an inning of work is starting to bother me.

Check out what the world has to say about the Yankees:

The Times compares JHJ to Juis Sojo:

"I came up with the Orioles, and I saw those great Yankee teams," Hairston said. "They obviously had superstars, but the Scott Brosiuses, the Jim Leyritzes, the Luis Sojos, those are all guys who made positive contributions."

They also gave some attention to Joe G.'s bullpen management:

After lifting Burnett, Manager Joe Girardi churned through Phil Coke and Joba Chamberlain in the seventh, Phil Hughes in the eighth, and then Rivera, Aceves, Damaso Marte and Dave Robertson. Only Chad Gaudin remained; even Nick Swisher had been taken out.

The NYPost paid attention to the bullpen's tightwire act.

Mariano Rivera threw 2 1/3 scoreless innings and Joba Chamberlain left the bases loaded in the seventh. David Robertson worked around a two-out double by Jeff Mathis in the 12th and Robinson Cano's second error on Erick Aybar's leadoff grounder in the 13th.

Our buddies at LoHud divide last night's heroes into 3 categories: Arod, JHJ and the bullpen. I find this quote from Joe G. telling:

"I knew I had Gaudin for 75 pitches. You’re thinking that’s four or five innings. In your mind you can’t necessarily say I think this game is going to go 19 innings."

Weather Permitting: 2009 NLCS Game 2 and ALCS Game 1 Previews

Al — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 18:00:23 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Scene at Yankee Stadium on Thursday. This is not a good sign for baseball being played there today.

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Tom Skilling's WGN weather page details the cold, wet weather we have had in the Chicago area this month, among the coldest in recorded weather history here:

Thursday's temperatures were anything but mild--and would have been at home in late November. The day's 44-degree official high equaled readings observed here for the date in 1876, 1909 and 1943--each tying as Oct. 15's coldest on record. The tenacious cold spell--which is to last into Sunday morning before breaking--produces a 19th day of below normal temperatures Friday and limits highs to the 40s for a 7th consecutive day--the most ever so early in the season. Chicago's average temperature over the month's first 15 days slipped Thursday to 47.3-degrees---the city's chilliest October open in the 133 years since 1876. Not only has it been cool---it's been cloudy and wet. Rain has fallen 10 of the past 15 days and has totaled 2.13 inches---nearly an inch (0.85) above normal. The damp weather has allowed only 38 percent of October's possible sunshine to date---58 percent is typical.

Things aren't much better in the New York area, where snow fell within 50 miles of Yankee Stadium last night and where there is at least an 80% chance of rain and cold temperatures through Sunday.

This creates a real scheduling problem for the ALCS; they do have off days on Sunday and Wednesday, which they could use for rescheduling postponements. However, Fox, which is carrying the ALCS, won't want a Sunday day game, as they are committed to NFL telecasts during the afternoon. If there's a postponement and there's a game rescheduled for Sunday night, that would affect game 3 -- which is now scheduled to be played Monday afternoon in Anaheim. Further, that would mess up Yankee manager Joe Girardi's plan to use only three starting pitchers in the series; he'd probably be forced to let Chad Gaudin start game four. The mind boggles -- Chad Gaudin, who a year ago was recovering from an injury to his back suffered when he fell into or onto a trash dumpster, had a terrible spring for the Cubs and was released, might start a game in the American League Championship Series.

What a mess. And it's not necessarily anyone's fault for scheduling these games in mid-October; the average high in New York for today is 63 degrees.

Meanwhile, there are no such problems in Los Angeles for today's NLCS game two; it's going to be sunny and unseasonably hot in LA this afternoon, possibly as warm as 92 degrees.

Phillies at Dodgers, 3:07 pm CDT. Phillies lead series 1-0. TV: TBS. Announcers: Chip Caray, Buck Martinez and Ron Darling.

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Please visit our SB Nation Dodgers site True Blue LA and Phillies site The Good Phight.

Angels at Yankees, 6:57 pm CDT. TV: Fox. Announcers: Joe Buck and Tim McCarver.

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Once again, no overflows scheduled today. If you need one, post it in the FanShot section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

2009-10 Do-It-Yourself Offseason Trade/Free Agent Post

Al — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:01:23 -0000

More photos » by Mark Avery - AP

Some guy named Brian Roberts. Ever heard of him? Me, either.

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This morning, wrote that the Cubs are interested in acquiring . Cubs GM Jim Hendry . Meanwhile, Hendry said that Milton Bradley would be traded to the . Hendry also said that Rich Harden , and that Carlos Zambrano . Former Cub Mark DeRosa while Bradley was offered to the . The Cubs tried to get the to take Aaron Miles' contract, but they refused because . In the upcoming Rule 5 draft, the Cubs are going to select . The Cubs' plans for Sam Fuld in 2010 include Brian Roberts was located and had this comment on his possible trade to the Cubs: Finally, manager Lou Piniella's comments about the rumors included:

Yankees vs. Angels ALCS Preview

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:47:42 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

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In the three previous ALDS showdowns, the Red Sox dominated the Angels to a record of 10-1. Two of those seasons, 2004 and 2007, the Red Sox went on to win the World Series. This season, the Angels were ready to change things up.

After impressive performances from John Lackey and Jered Weaver, the pitching looks to be getting hot at the right time. Timely hitting from Vladimir Guerrero and Erik Aybar, along with consistent at-bats from Bobby Abreu and Torii Hunter, Angels fans are starting to believe that this could the year.

The Yankees returned to the postseason after a brief hiatus, halting the Twins' impressive streak to end their season. The Yankees outscored the Twins 15-6 behind solid outings from CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte. The Yankees kept Joba Chamberlain in the bullpen for the ALDS, but will need at least a fourth starter for the ALCS. Whether it is Chamberlain or Chad Gaudin, there is even more pressure on Sabathia and Burnett to get the Yankees out in front in the series.

The Angels have the Yankees' number in the postseason, knocking the Yankees out in 2002 and 2005. They split the season series this year, but it is clear that the Angels have more depth in their rotation than the Yankees.

The Yankees paced the league with 915 runs scored, but the Angels were right there with 883. The lineups from top to bottom are solid, but it is key that the Angels don't let Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez hurt them. The Yankees would be smart to avoid Guerrero, who stepped up in the ALDS after a strong second-half.

Both bullpen's are solid, and both teams are motivated beyond just winning a World Series. The Angels came together this season after the tragic death of rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart, sporting his number on their jersey all season and even celebrating at his picture on the outfield wall after they clinched. The Yankees opened their new season and powered their way back to the top of the AL East, posting the best record in baseball. Young manager Joe Girardi will face up against veteran manager Mike Scoscia, who is considered one of the best managers in all of baseball.

Nearly a week away, this already has the makings of an epic series. In the end, it seems like it always comes down to who has the best pitching. My prediction: Angels in six.

We'll get a sense of that soon enough, but for now, I want to hear what you guys think?

Poll

Who is going to win the ALCS?

Yankees in seven

163 votes

Angels in seven

128 votes

Yankees in 4-5

200 votes

Angels in 4-5

124 votes

615 votes | Poll has closed

Joba or Gaudin (or CC again)?

Travis G — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 19:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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If Joe Girardi plans on using his starters on normal rest in the ALCS, he'll need a fourth, because game four is only four days after game one. Should he start Sabathia on short rest, or go with another option and let CC go on normal rest in game five?

The 'other option' would be either Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin or (just maybe) Alfredo Aceves. Joba has done well in the playoffs so far, but he hasn't thrown more than 17 pitches in a game since his last start on September 30th. On the other hand, Chad Gaudin hasn't thrown at all since October 3rd (and hasn't started since September 28th).

Perhaps the most sensible option is to 'play it by ear.' In other words, if Sabathia has a relatively easy game one and can be taken out before 100 pitches, Girardi may feel more comfortable starting him again on short rest. But if CC takes part in a tense pitcher's duel, where his pitch-count is high and every AB is stressful, Joe may go with Joba/Gaudin in game four. Then again, if the Yankees are losing 3-0 or 2-1 heading into the fourth game, Girardi may feel a need to use his ace no matter what the circumstances.

Poll

Who should start game four?

Gaudin

289 votes

Joba

106 votes

CC no matter what

307 votes

Depends on CC's game one

283 votes

Depends on how the series is going

680 votes

1665 votes | Poll has closed