SB Nation - Jason Hammel

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:32:02 -0000

Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>

With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34	2.87	-0.39
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06	3.05	-0.26
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33	3.15	-0.99
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11	3.36	-0.73

Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	0.335	66.10%	5.1	4	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.93	1.56	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	1.12	1.29	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.72	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.91	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.87	1.39	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.71	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.88	1.51	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.39	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.74	1.52	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.06	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	1.03	1.28	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.69	3.61	0.45

You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.

Poll

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

Browse more photos »

Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Tuesday Rockpile: Arbitration offer deadline is today - Rockies to decide on Betancourt

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 14:08:19 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Arbitration: some people get it, and some people just don't.

Browse more photos »

It is December 1, meaning today is the deadline for teams to offer arbitration, at least to qualify for draft pick compensation. Betancourt is likely the only Rockie to receive salary arbitration offer, writes Troy Renck, leaving Joe Beimel, Jason Marquis and Yorvit Torrealba free. Betancourt is a no-brainer. If he accepts arbitration, he'll make less than he would have made had the Rockies exercised his option, but if he declines and signs elsewhere, the Rockies will receive two high and shiny draft picks. Also, as WolfMarauder noted, Troy Renck also suggests the Rockies are interested in Fernando Tatis, Bobby Crosby, Rich Aurilia, Justin Duchsherer and Miguel Batista.

On a national scale, MLBTradeRumors has spent time inquiring the minds of beat writers everywhere to compile his Arbitration Offer Predictions For Free Agents.

Two highlights from FOX Sports Offseason Buzz: the Rockies will likely keep Ryan Spilborghs and the Diamondbacks are looking at improving via trade rather than free agency.

The Rockies received their postseason share (Renck). Their share of the player's pool totaled over $1.77mil. Just as the Rockies did with the family of Mike Coolbaugh, the Angels awarded a full share to the family of Nick Adenhart.

Samuel Deduno is a hot name on Rockies' farm (Harding). The 26-year old could be a strong dark horse to join the bullpen next season if the cards fall right.

Thomas Harding also writes that "about 200" broadcasters have applied for the job to replace Jeff Kingery in the radio booth. The club will decide sometime in "early 2010," which only tells us they are handing it out as a holiday gift.

Speaking of broadcasters, Chip Caray is out at TBS, a divorce reported as mutual. Hat tip to RhodeIslandRoxFan

It is certainly a bleak year for free agent pitching. The Hardball Times searched for someone to best compare top free agent John Lackey to, and you might like the comparison. Click under the fold to find out:

Clone Wars: John Lackey and Jason Hammel
That's right, Jason Hammel.

W ERA K BB WHIP K/9 BB/9 GB% HR/FB% FIP BABIP
John Lackey 11 3.83 139 47 1.27 7.09 2.40 44.9% 9.1% 3.73 0.309
Jason Hammel 10 4.33 133 42 1.39 6.78 2.14 46.2% 9.7% 3.71 0.337

Granted, the author isn't saying Hammel is as good of a bet to best Lackey next season, but for your value either in a fantasy draft pick or salary dollar, which pitcher would you rather have?

The State of the Rockies: Post GM Meetings Update

Jabberwocky — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 04:42:43 -0000

In what will be a semi-weekly occurrence from now until January on Purple Row Academy, I'm going to update my post on the State of the Rockies. In other words, I will update my loyal readers (all three of you)--as well as anyone ~~stupid~~ intrepid enough to follow me after the jump as to the roster framework the Rockies are looking at as some big offseason deadlines approach.

This week, I'll be looking at what has happened thus far for the Rockies and what that means going forward. Also discussed will be the Rockies' impending decision on Rafael Betancourt's club option and how the Rockies are affected by the Elias Free Agent classifications.

By next week, we should have a better idea of what the Rockies are doing as the beginning of free agency and the deadline to set 40 man rosters approaches (November 20th).

Jump with me, brave souls, to roster-building nirvana...

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This list of players the Rockies definitely owe money to next year has become more certain, especially since Colorado declined the options of Embree and Torrealba as I predicted. Embree won't be back, but as RG wrote this morning, the door is open for Torrealba to return.

Pre-Arbitration Players

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$2,897,390

The main difference on this pre-arb chart is that I've taken out Paul Phillips, who was outrighted on Monday to clear up 40 man roster spots and looks like he'll become a free agent. That leaves a hole in the projected roster at backup catcher, perhaps to be filled by Torrealba, a cheaper in-house option such as Mike McKenry, or even a free agent catcher.

Even with the extra spot in the roster open, I'm not using Matt Murton to fill it because he would be the sixth outfielder. One of Murton, Ryan Spilborghs, and Hawpe will likely be gone--and more than one leaving is possible.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Since my previous post two weeks ago, the Rockies have avoided salary arbitration with two of their prospective cases, relievers Randy Flores and Matt Belisle. The Rockies were able to secure the services of these two relievers for less than I had predicted--Flores for $650,000 and Belisle for $850000, raises of 6.25 and 8.33% respectively. Both contracts have incentives based on number of appearances, neither of which I predict will be triggered.

With Belisle and Flores in the fold, the Rockies stil have eight potential arbitration cases to negotiate--including that of Garrett Atkins, who is almost certain to be non-tendered. The Rockies may (should) do this before the November 20th deadline for setting the 40 man roster in order to protect another prospect from the Rule 5 draft. Let's face it: Atkins won't engender much interest from teams at his current price point (minimum of $5.64 million). For that reason I'm removing him from the below chart. Bold numbers represent concrete salaries, not just predictions

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	6.25%
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	8.33%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$25,837,560	141.06%

As you can see, this is considerably less than two weeks ago, due mostly to Atkins but also because Belisle and Flores were signed more cheaply than I had anticipated. Another effect of Atkins being removed is that the Rockies' average player salary increase from arbitration is closer to reflecting the league average of 172%.

Of the seven arbitration cases that remain, I could really see De La Rosa and maybe Spilborghs getting to actual salary arbitration. De La Rosa in particular could garner a larger salary than I predict here (more in the $6.5 million range). Meanwhile, Barmes and Street seem more likley to take the multi-year contract route and might have lower salaries this year than I'd projected.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control (besides Atkins, that is) and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 22 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore the salary of three players would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $2,897,390

Arbitration Contracts: $25,837,560

Total ODP: $76,792,950

In other words, a roster that still has three spots open is about $1.6 million over last year's ODP.

The Betancourt Variable

The variables as far as the Rockies are concerned from now until November 20th are their free agents. The most pressing and important of these players to the front office is set-up man Rafael Betancourt, whose $5.4 million club option expires tomorrow.

Betancourt has reportedly already turned down a multi-year offer from the Rockies, so it is important for Dan O'Dowd to decide whether he wants the 35 year old Betancourt to be the set-up man next year or not. If the option is declined, Betancourt may still be retained, but the Rockies will have to bid against other teams for his services.

I've made my opinion on the issue of bullpen spending pretty clear--I believe that bullpen performance is highly variable, very fungible, and an inefficient use of salary dollars. Obviously many people disagree with me on this, but I'd prefer the Rockies to bring back Jose Contreras as a combo set-up man rotation insurance.

As Thomas Harding notes, the Rockies are interested in re-signing Contreras and Joe Beimel, who combined will probably make about the same as Betancourt's club option.

Free Agent Classification

Another reason for the Rockies to perhaps let Betancourt go would be his status as a Type A free agent. I wrote about free agency compensation several months ago, but the gist is that the top 20% of players in their positional groups (1B/DH/OF, 2B/SS/3B, C, SP, RP) as calculated by Elias are classified as Type A free agents. The formula for these calculations is complicated, convoluted, and confidential, rarely making a list that makes much sense.

In return for losing one of these players in free agency, a club receives the signing club's first round pick in the Rule 4 draft as well as a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds. As I discussed in my analysis of the Betancourt trade back in July, the draft picks from a type A free agent are typically worth $5 million to a team. In fact, in that article I recommended that the Rockies decline Betancourt's option and retain the draft picks.

Unfortunately, the Rockies would have to offer Betancourt arbitration in order to receive the draft picks in return--and in this lackluster market, the risk is high that Betancourt will accept and get even more than the $5.4 million club option. The same logic applies to Colorado's other free agents. If the Rockies want to take advantage of the Type B status (sandwich pick as compensation) of Jason Marquis, Torrealba, and Beimel they would have to offer arbitration--and there is a relatively high risk that these players would accept.

Is the risk worth it? For someone like Betancourt, who probably won't get a commensurate offer on the open market, especially with his type A status, the proposition is too chancy. For Marquis, who is likely to draw strong interest in a weak starting pitching market from his hometown Mets, the risk might be low enough to offer him arbitration. My personal view is that Colorado should offer arbitration to Beimel because his arbitration cost would be around his market cost--relatively low. Marquis could command $10-12 million in arbitration, so the Rockies need to be certain that he would decline before they offer it to him.

Next week the picture for the Betancourt situation should be a little clearer as the option decision will be made and the 40 man roster will be solidified. Until then, don't touch that stove. It's hot.

Poll

Should the Rockies exercise their $5.4 million club option on Rafael Betancourt?

Yes. He was nails last season and provides a solid bridge to Huston Street.

111 votes

No, the Rockies should try to sign him at a lower price over a multi-year deal.

131 votes

No, Betancourt is old and signing him would tie up too much salary to the bullpen.

40 votes

282 votes | Poll has closed

Dan O'Dowd named The Sporting News' Executive of the Year

theoldgrizzlybear — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:01:29 -0000

SMUG via i.a.cnn.net

View full size photo »

According to The Sporting News' Jeff D'Alessio, Colorado General Manager Dan O'Dowd has won the publication's Executive of the Year award.

The man well known in the past around these parts as "Dealin' Dan," "Dan O'Dud," and "Dan O'Clown" was largely viewed as a genius this season, simply for firing Clint Hurdle and replacing him with Jim Tracy. However, O'Dowd should definitely be more recognized for the string of terrific deals he's made over the past year. Lassoing Huston Street and Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Holliday unexpectedly paid immediate dividends, and will continue to do so for years to come. Plus, when the team started to gain momentum toward a possible postseason berth, DOD went out and picked up relievers Joe Beimel and Rafael Betancourt to shore up the team's biggest weakness. On top of all of that, O'Dowd turned Luis Vizcaino and Aneury Rodriguez into Jason Marquis and Jason Hammel, respectively. Both pitchers largely contributed to what ended up being arguably the best starting rotation the Rox have ever had.

In addition to the aforementioned acquisitions, the Rockies recently completed what was arguably their most successful draft in team history, and certainly the best of any MLB team this season (based on what we know now). With all of those things combined, the future looks very bright for the Rockies and their fans, and as we all know, O'Dowd will soon be (and rightfully so) rewarded with a contract extension and a likely pay raise.

Check out this article for more from D'Alessio, including some great insight by the winner himself (including his admittance of the absurdity of the Chone Figgins/Kimera Bartee deal, and a quote that may make you sad).

Congratulations Dan, and GO ROCKIES!

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

Rays Alumni: The Dirty Little Secret that is Jason Hammel

FreeZorilla — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 10:00:18 -0000

Entering Spring Training this past season, the Rays found themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place in the battle for the 5^th spot in the rotation. The team had 2004 4^th overall pick Jeff Niemann, and 2002 10^th round pick Jason Hammel fighting for one rotation spot, with the loser competing with free agent Lance Cormier for the final spot in the bullpen. Both, Niemann and Hammel were out of options, so if the Rays were to keep Cormier it was doubtful the Rays could retain the loser of the rotational battle.

Niemann had long been full of potential, but injuries had derailed, or at least delayed, his emergence into the big leagues. With a reputation of needing a long time to warm up, the team was hesitant to move him to the pen. This was confirmed in a small sample size of poor bullpen performances in the Spring.

Having an undistinguished career with the Rays for the most part, Hammel's big moment came on September 10, 2008 in the 14^th inning of a critical game at Fenway Park. Carlos Pena belted a 3 run homer in the top of the inning to give the Rays a 4-1 lead paving the way for a classic Troy Percival meltdown. Percival loaded the bases to being the bottom of the 14^th.. Having exhausted the rest of his bullpen options and having no faith left in Percival, Joe Maddon turned to the low-leverage long man Jason Hammel to face Kevin Youkilis, Jason Bay, and Alex Cora with no outs in a raucous Fenway Park. After giving up a harmless sacrifice fly to Youk, Hammel came back to strike out Bay and induce a Cora flyout. For me, that performance was as epic as Dan Johnon's home run off Papelbon. Following the game Percival uttered, "When I'm the weakest link in the bullpen, its a pretty good bullpen." Sadly, that prophecy did not hold as true in 2009.

Hammel had bounced between the rotation, the bullpen, and Durham since 2006 without clearly defining his role. Enter the Colorado Rockies. Colorado was willing to part with young pitching prospect Aneury Rodriguez (2009 season profiled here) in exchange for the Hammer. Hammel was pegged in a similar role with Colorado as he was with the Rays, a bullpen long man with the occasional spot start. That would change when 5^th starter, Franklin Morales, injured his shoulder during an April start. Hammel took the spot and the Rockies didn't dare take it away from him. Was this the same Jason Hammel that pitched for the Rays?

Year	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
2006	6.55	4.3	1.43	5.26
2007	6.78	4.24	1.27	5.05
2008	5.06	4.02	1.26	5.25
2009	6.78	2.14	0.87	3.71

Well that's a significant K:BB change. We will look more into that in a minute. What about the reduction in longballs? Detractors will point to pitching in the National League. Facing pitchers is fine and dandy, but Hammel went from a pretty neutral park to Coors Field and its 1.09 park factor. He saw his HR/FB% drop from an unlucky 13.3% in 2008 to 9.7% with the Rockies. Hammel did give up a high line drive % of 22.8% leading to a BABIP of .337. This type of statistical line conjures up fuzzy memories of Andy Sonnanstine circa 2008.

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	BABIP
Sonny08	5.77	1.72	0.98	3.91	0.312
Hammel09	6.78	2.14	0.87	3.71	0.336

If the strikeouts and walks changed so dramatically, what gives?

Year	SwStrk%	Ball%	CB%	wCB/c	O-Swg%
2006	6.5%	38.5%	20.40%	-0.13	16.90%
2007	9.0%	38.6%	8.70%	-0.26	24.90%
2008	4.9%	39.7%	10%	0.53	22.30%
2009	9.4%	35.2%	15.60%	3.53	27.10%

Swinging strikes nearly doubled while achieving a 4.5% decrease in balls thrown. Most interestingly is the development of Hammer's curveball. His run value above average per 100 curveballs thrown (wCB/c) of 3.53 was the tops in baseball for qualified pitchers with at least 10% usage. This more than likely directly caused the increase in swings outside the zone.

Last week we looked at the roller coaster ride of Edwin Jackson. There is an argument to be made that "The Afterthought" Jason Hammel proved to be the better starter in 2009 despite being traded for much lower compensation.

Year	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	tRA	SwStrk%	GB%	RAR	RAR/St
Hammel	6.78	2.14	0.87	3.71	5.2	9.4%	46.2%	34.5	1.15
Jackson	6.77	2.94	1.14	4.28	4.75	9.8%	39.1%	35.8	1.08

While tRA favored Jackson due to Hammel's high line drive % allowed, K:BB, FIP, ground ball %, and runs above replacement per start support the Hammer. Sentiment early in the year told a tale of the front office being fleeced on the Jackson deal while mining something out of nothing from the out-of-options Hammel. Very quietly 2^nd half Edwin returned to form, while the Jason Hammel trade became the Rays' dirty little secret. Then again.......2010 Jason Hammel may just become 2009 Andy Sonnanstine

Jason Hammel: The Man, the Myth, the Back-End Starter

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:00:25 -0000

***UPDATE: I went ahead and averaged everyone's rankings, as I'm somewhat foolish in the original analysis. This has been reflected in the article, and in the linked spreadsheet as well.***

Jason Hammel is a stud. At least, in my opinion he is. I found that he really solidified his spot in the rotation after a shaky April. He had a bit of an ugly July as well, but all things averaging out, Hammel finished the season at 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, 176 2/3 IP, and a nice friendly smile to go with all of that.

Now, what's probably sticking in most Rockies' fans mind is his first and only postseason start against Philly, where he didn't have his ace stuff. He only lasted 3.2 innings, allowing 4 runs on 4 hits, 5K's, 3BB, and sucked up the loss. Definitely not solid stuff.

But we all know that 1 start does not make a pitcher, especially a first postseason start, where nerves and the bitter cold may have played a part. In the minds of many fans, however, he still wasn't the solidifying force that many people would have liked to see over the course of the season, #5 starter or not. I've read several claims that he should be in the bullpen in 2010, making way for starters returning from injury, for young prospects looking eager to make the rotation, and perhaps even being bumped when Colorado inevitably trades for Roy Halladay.

See, I disagree with the notion that he hasn't earned himself a spot in the 2010 rotation. I personally feel he's earned himself the #4 spot, behind Ubaldo, Cook, and DLR.

I feel strongly enough about this to make the following claim: Jason Hammel was the best (or at least top 15%) among all #5 starters in the majors this season, and that he'd even find himself in the middle of the pack (top 50%) among all #4 starters this season.

Now, to explore this hypothesis, I pulled all the #4/#5 starters from Baseball Reference to see how well he stacks up. I included all the #6 starters as well and called them #5s. I had to make a few adjustments as BBR ranks the 1-5 based on innings pitched, which makes sense for the most part: your ace will likely have the most innings pitched, and the #5/#6 will probably have been called up/sent down and/or demoted to/promoted from the pen, thereby giving them an overall lesser workload than the other rotation members. That said, I had to make sure that Cliff Lee was an Ace, and other pitching staffs with a lot of injuries didn't have their Ace listed as the #4.

Now there are a couple of interesting details to note here. For starters, the #5 slot isn't nearly as non-competitive as you'd think. Populating the back-end include not only a bunch of no-names and veterans just there to eat innings, but also young bucks who burned their way past AAA and will probably be a #3 or higher in the 2010 season. That said, the #5 competition is almost stiffer than the #4 competition, as the #4 doesn't have quite the revolving door that the #5 does, and oftentimes will house the Livan Hernandez' of a rotation, who really kind of suck, but not badly enough to be demoted.

Join us after the jump as we see where Hammel stacks up against the competition.

Now, when I evaluate a pitcher, I look at the following things: ERA, FIP, xFIP, tRA. I'll be excluding xFIP and tRA from this not because I don't think they should come into play, but because I have like 60 pitchers to stack up and their xFIP/tRA aren't easily calculable and/or aren't nicely listed on BBR. Ah, the drawbacks of making your own spreadsheets.

After the runs/9 metrics, I then move to peripherals: WHIP, K9, BB9, HR9, K/BB. I feel those can tell more of a story of how the pitcher actually pitched without taking a lot of the more variable aspects of the game into play (parks and such - although obviously HR9 is very different based on where you pitched. This is where the "YEAH BUT COORS" comes into play).

Finally, Innings Pitched. Typically, it's not that big of a deal, because we can just look at rate stats to level the playing field, but considering the revolving-door nature of the #5 slot, it shows that the pitcher was consistently good enough to not lose his rotation spot to anyone else.

So let's get to cracking.

Jason Hammel posted a 4.33 ERA in 2009 over 176 2/3 innings, good for an ERA+ of 104, allowing a WHIP of 1.387. His FIP sat at a solid 3.66. Per 9 innings, Hammel struck out 6.8, walked a mere 2.1, and gave up 0.9 HR. He struck out 3.17 batters per walk allowed.

Based on those numbers, Hammel ranked as follows:

	#5
ERA	13
ERA+	11
WHIP	17
FIP	3
K9	13
BB9	5
HR9	9
K/BB	4
IP	2
Average	8.89

Averaging all those rankings gives Hammel an average rank of 8.89, as seen above. This puts Hammel as 3rd among #5 starters, with 1st being Tommy Hanson (4.33) and Jeff Niemann (8.56). That's some pretty fine company to have right there. So let's see how he stacks up among the steady #4 starters:

	Hammel	DLR
ERA	7	8
ERA+	7	8
WHIP	9	8
FIP	1	4
K9	13	2
BB9	2	21
HR9	5	10
K/BB	2	4
IP	2	1
Average	5.333333333	7.333333333

Averaging THOSE rankings puts Hammel at an average 5.333 ranking among #4 starters. Ahead of him, nobody. That's right, he's first. Directly behind him are Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wells, and Jorge De La Rosa.

Clearly we're not looking at all the pieces to the puzzle here. There's more to a pitcher's makeup than simply how he ranks among his peers. But considering the job we asked Jason to do this season, it would appear he held it down admirably.

If you asked me to tell you which number impressed me the most about Jason Hammel this season, I'd answer simply that it's his walk rate. With 2 fireballers/K machines in Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa, we also saw some pretty unfriendly BB9's, despite their relative improvements. Jason almost halved his BB9 from his past 2 seasons in Tampa, and took to attacking the strike zone far more than we'd seen of him in his career. Granted, he had times when he was very hittable, but at the very least, a BB9 that low will keep you in games longer and help you eat more innings at the back end of a rotation.

Additionally, Hammel ranked 31^st in tRA*, the adjusted and regressed form of tRA. While that doesn't really show how the other #4/#5 pitchers did this season, putting Hammel that high up on the list is pretty impressive to say the least.

So let's go back to my hypothesis.

Did Jason Hammel rate top 15% among #5 starters?

No, no he did not. Based on the criteria, Hammel just barely missed being in the top 20%. So swing and a miss there, although he might have caught a piece of it. Yes, yes he did. Ranking 3rd behind Jeff Niemann and Tommy Hanson is no small feat, considering Hanson is the Braves' top pitching prospect and Niemann is the guy who beat him out for the job in Tampa. Very admirable.

Did Jason Hammel rate top 50% among #4 starters?

Yes, yes he did. Based on the criteria, Hammel blew past the top 50% and topped all eligible #4 starters in the categories used to evaluate.

That said, based on the hypothesis given, the conclusion I draw is that while Hammel ranks very favorably among #5 starters, he can easily compete with #4 starters, and I feel that puts him in a place that should all but guarantee him a rotation spot in 2010.

If you'd like to see the raw data I used to make this evaluation, I've created a Google Docs spreadsheet here for you to look at and mess with.

Redeem Team: Phillies 6, Rockies 5

dajafi — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 06:50:55 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Chase Utley started and Brad Lidge finished as the Phillies took a marathon Game Three in frigid conditions, defeating Colorado 6-5. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

If you looked past the absurdly late start time and the absolutely friggin' insane cold temperature--below 30 degrees by the last innings--the pattern for how the Phillies would win their biggest game of the year actually began to lay out with the third batter of the evening. Minutes into what would be an epic of four-plus hours, Chase Utley stepped to the plate with two outs. Utley, a middling 2 for 8 through the first two games of the Division Series after a miserable .204/.304/.343 performance in September, crushed a pitch from Rockies starter Jason Hammel over the right-center field wall to give his team a quick 1-0 lead. Utley made his presence felt with the bat all night, figuring in two big rallies later on and finishing with three hits and a walk.

Happ had no need for redemption after his outstanding regular season, but his first career playoff start isn't likely one he'll remember fondly. The rookie lefty needed more than 30 pitches to get through the first inning as the Rockies scored twice to take a 2-1 lead, and he ultimately lasted just three innings, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks. But his teammates took him off the hook with three runs in the top of the fourth. Shane Victorino led off with a walk, advanced to second on an Utley single and scored on Ryan Howard's single to right-center. After Hammel walked Jayson Werth, he got ahead of Raul Ibanez. But the veteran left fielder--another player look to silence doubters after a mostly pedestrian second half--came back in the at-bat to draw the first and biggest of his three walks for the game, tying the score at 3. After Pedro Feliz grounded into a 1-2-3 double play, Carlos Ruiz put the Phils back ahead with an RBI single that scored Howard.

The Rockies quickly tied it again on a long solo home run from Carlos Gonzalez, the emerging star who notched three more hits plus a walk tonight. But Joe Blanton held Colorado at bay for the rest of his 2 2/3 innings, before giving way to Scott Eyre with two outs in the sixth. By then, the Phils had retaken the lead, on another single from Ruiz that scored Ibanez. With a man on first, Eyre came on to face pinch-hitter extraordinaire Seth Smith, and induced a popup to end the inning.

Eyre did not fare as well an inning later, as Gonzalez led off with a double. Dexter Fowler tried to bunt him over, but Eyre's ankle collapsed and both runners were safe on the corners. Ryan Madson came in to strike out Todd Helton, but the Rockies tied it on a Troy Tulowitzki sac fly that looked much more troublesome off the bat. Madson finished the inning by freezing Yorvit Torrealba--who responded to manager Jim Tracy elevating him to fifth in the batting order by going 0 for 4 with three strikeouts--on outside heat.

The Phillies then let a great chance go by the boards in the top of the eighth, when an Ibanez walk and a bloop Feliz double put men on second and third with one out. Rafael Betancourt held on to strike out Ruiz and pinch-hitter Matt Stairs, and the Rockies seemed to have the momentum going into the home eighth. But Chad Durbin, a reliever I've certainly felt no faith in, and whose appearance on the playoff roster itself was a surprise after a poor regular season, set Colorado down in order, keeping things even. Another fallen star, Jimmy Rollins, stepped up to lead off the ninth, working a full count against Huston Street before singling up the middle. Rollins moved up to second on Victorino's sac bunt and got to third on an Utley infield single that he appeared to foul off his own body, then barely beat (or not) Torrealba's throw to first. Howard's deep sac fly plated Rollins, and the Phillies had their fourth one-run lead of the night.

With Madson used--exactly when he should have been, by the way, with the game on the line in the seventh--Charlie Manuel called on the closer whose reversal of fortune has been the biggest stain on a mostly successful Phillies season, Colorado native Brad Lidge. It was quickly clear that this Lidge had something over the helpless hurler seen a month ago getting smacked around by the likes of the Nationals and Marlins, as he induced an easy groundout from Brad Hawpe to start the inning. But Gonzalez had another superb at-bat, getting ahead 3-0, taking a strike, then fouling off pitch after pitch before taking a close fastball outside for the walk. He stole second with pinch-hitter Jason Giambi up, but had to stay there when the aging slugger fouled out to third. Lidge seemed to pitch around Todd Helton, and put the potential winning run on with another walk. But Tulowitzki, whose sac fly had plated Gonzalez two innings earlier, could only manage a shallow fly ball to left. Ben Francisco settled under it, squeezed, and pumped his fist, and Lidge turned to accept the handshakes and high fives of his teammates--who stood in for who knows how many thousands of exhausted but exhilarated Phillies fans everywhere.

Cliff Lee takes the mound tomorrow at 6 ET, looking to close out the series. As in Game One, he'll face Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez.