SB Nation - Scott Kazmir

A Brief Comparison

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 14:00:53 -0000

Player	Pitches	SwStr%	Foul%	K%	uBB%	FB Velo	xFIP
Pitcher A	2012	8.4	19.8	18.06	9.92	90.7	5.16
Pitcher B	516	7.8	30.8	18.97	6.9	92.5	5.06

Both of those are Scott Kazmir in 2009. A is his Rays season while B represents his Angels season. I'm not going to pretend to know what happened with his foul rate or velocity -- maybe Florida has a velocity tax I'm unaware of -- but for the most part, nothing changed. Fewer pitches were whiffed on, more were fouled off -- which raised his strike rate, but unintentionally so -- he struck out about a batter more per 100 faced, walked three less, and avoided the home run bug. The thing is, you can do this for just about any stretch for any player. Below are the numbers from Kazmir's last five Rays starts:

Player	Pitches	SwStr%	Foul%	K%	uBB%	FB Velo
Pitcher C	523	10.1	N/A	22.1	6.87	90.7

Those numbers are more comforting if I'm an Angels fan. Of course Kazmir promptly lost the strikeouts and whiffs while gaining velocity, which goes against expectations.

I guess what I'm saying is: Scott Kazmir is an odd bird.

ALCS Game 6 Postponed

Rev Halofan — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 20:06:03 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

2 months ago: New York Yankees' Alex Rodriguez puts pine tar on his baseball bat before batting practice Friday, Oct. 23, 2009, at Yankee Stadium in New York. The Yankees are scheduled to play the Los Angeles Angels in Game 6 of the American League Championship Series on Saturday. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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Is there a disturbance in the force, Sith-Rod?

The NY POST is reporting that ALCS Game 6 has been RAINED OUT and is postponed. The game will be played SUNDAY, first pitch at 5:20 PM Pacific Time. Game 7 is scheduled for Monday at 4:57 PM our time.

From all reports, the Yankees will stick with Andy Pettitte to start Game 6 as scheduled. The Angels have given no indication that it will be anyone but Joe Saunders starting Game 6. The possibility of bringing John Lackey back to start Game 7 on three days rest to face CC Sabathia will be the subject of much consideration should the Angels be victorious on Sunday.

If you are hanging out online tonight, Giguere says he is 100%, go visit ANAHEIM CALLING, the new SBN Ducks Blog!

Bronx Weather Link - Live TWITTER UPDATES from the NY Post in the Bronx Pressbox

Sunday Night Forecast: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds around 5 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. East winds around 5 mph.

TONIGHT'S Forecast: Rain with isolated thunderstorms in the evening...then a chance of rain after midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall in the evening. Breezy with lows in the mid 50s. South winds 15 to 20 mph...becoming northwest 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Poll

Since the Game has been Called, Where Are You Going Tonight?

I will just stay home

219 votes

Hang with friends at a bar or someone's pad

120 votes

My Hook Up is None of Your Business

137 votes

476 votes | Poll has closed

Hey, Bud! It's Time For Replay Review: NLCS Game 5 Preview, Dodgers vs. Phillies, Wednesday 10/21, 7:07 CT

Al — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:09:34 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Photographic evidence of The Worst Call of All Time.

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Fortunately, they had nothing to do with the outcome of ALCS game four, which the Yankees won 10-1. But there were three horrendous umpiring calls in consecutive innings in last night's game -- and two of them were made by Tim McClelland, who has a reputation as one of the best in baseball. The one that everyone's talking about has been termed by Kevin Kaduk ("Duk") of Yahoo sports as "The Worst Call of All Time".

I don't think I'd go that far, because as noted above, even all three calls put together had negligible impact on the game. Had 2B umpire Dale Scott made the right call when Erick Aybar had Nick Swisher picked off second base in the fourth, that inning would have been over -- but McClelland made the wrong call in saying that Swisher, later in the inning, left third base too early and thus was out instead of scoring. No harm done, right? Well, maybe. If Swisher is called out at second, the inning would have been over, and Scott Kazmir wouldn't have had to pitch to two extra hitters in that inning.

But McClelland's call in the fifth -- how can you miss that when it's right in front of you? Angels catcher Mike Napoli tagged two runners, neither of whom was standing on third base at the time. They were both out. True, again, no "harm" was done, because the Yankees failed to score after that. But Darren Oliver, as Kazmir had to do in the previous inning, had to throw to another hitter. Who knows what the pitch sequences would have been, or whether Kazmir might have been able to settle down when it was only 3-0? After the game, McClelland said:

As far as the two calls that I had at third base. The first one with Swisher leaving too soon. In my heart I thought he left too soon.

On the play with Cano and Posada, I thought Cano was on the base. I was waiting for two players to be on the base, and when there was never the situation where both of them were on the base at the same time. When he tagged Cano, I thought Cano was on the base, and when Jorge touched the base and continued and tagged Posada out, I thought Posada was out.

In his heart??? You're not supposed to make calls with your heart, Tim. You're supposed to watch the game with your eyes. And you "thought" Cano was on the base? How about checking with your eyes?

I'm being deliberately too tough on McClelland here -- he is, as I wrote above, generally respected as one of the best in the game. The real villain here is Bud Selig, because he refuses to admit that replay review of plays like this is necessary in modern baseball. Under a system that's been proposed by others and that I agree with, you could give each manager two "red flags" that he could throw for replay review. Last night, two plays went against the Angels and one against the Yankees -- you could have gotten those right under that system and everyone would be happy, I presume, that the right calls were made instead of having another postgame apology news conference from an umpire.

It's way past time, Bud. You already have review for home runs, and it's working well. Time to have review for other calls. The umpiring in the postseason has been atrociously bad. Let's fix it.

Dodgers at Phillies, 7:07 pm CDT. Phillies lead series 3-1. TV: TBS. Announcers: Chip Caray, Buck Martinez and Ron Darling.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Dodgers site True Blue LA and Phillies site The Good Phight.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

All CC, all the time: Yankees win 10-1, take 3-1 series lead

Travis G — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 03:56:53 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Heeeere it comes!

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Wow... just wow. What else can you say about the Yankees' ace? He matched his phenomenal game one performance with another eight innings of one run ball - and on short rest to boot! Things looked a bit iffy in the fifth, when he allowed a solo homer to Kendry Morales and then consecutive singles, but Sabathia escaped with no further damage. Then in the seventh, the first two batters reached before then he induced a GDP and a groundout.

His postseason stats: 3-0, 22.2 ip, 1.19 ERA, 17 H, 3 BB, 20 K.

Only slightly outdone was Alex Rodriguez (3-4, HR, 2B, 3 R, 2 RBI, BB), who continues to mash the ball. He's also apparently the best baserunner on the team - while Brett Gardner is getting thrown out, Robbie Cano isn't stepping on third, and Nick Swisher's getting picked off (despite the call), A-Rod is stealing a base, tagging up (successfully), and scoring on grounders with a drawn-in infield... remarkable.

The big hit came off the bat of Melky Cabrera - the Yanks were up 1-0 in the fourth, the bases were loaded with one out: he lined a sharp grounder between third and short that scored two. Just when Melky was being doubted, he came through with three hits and four RBI (and it all started with a gorgeous bunt single).

Scott Kazmir was fortunately just as ineffective as his last game: 4 ip, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 89 pitches. For whatever reason (perhaps it's as simple as the AL West isn't the AL East), he hasn't been the same pitcher in the postseason that he was for the Angels down the stretch.

The umpiring has to be addressed. It was again atrocious. The umps blew two clear calls in one inning! Nick Swisher should have been picked off at second, but was called safe. He later scored on a sac-fly only to have it negated on appeal for supposedly leaving early - he didn't. Then, inexplicably, the Yankees were gifted an extra out when Cano and Posada were both tagged out standing near thirdbase. Why neither of them decided to actually stay on the bag, or why Tim McLelland called only one of them out is beyond me. (In his postgame interview, McLelland admitted his multiple screw-ups.)

Don't let any Angel fans bother you with 'conspiracy theories' about the umpires: Swisher's non-pickoff was made up for with the appeal at third (where he was actually safe), and the shoulda-been DP with Cano and Posada made no difference as the next batter grounded out to end the inning. Plus the Yankees happened to win the game 10-1, not 2-1.

(Not to get off topic too much, but the New York Football Giants game this past Sunday had numerous poor calls go against them, yet I can still admit Naw'luhns was the better team... they did win by 21 points after all, about the equivalent of nine runs in baseball.)

Speaking of poor baserunning, how could Posada not score on Cano's double (that occurred right before the apparent DP)? He was standing on second and Cano doubled... Posada made it 90 feet. Inexplicable.

As for more bad baserunning, what is it with Brett Gardner and his sudden inability to steal? He was gunned down for the second straight game, and is now 1-3 in the playoffs (in SB attempts). In Monday's game, Jeff Mathis made a ridiculous throw, but that wasn't the case tonight - it was just your run-of-the-mill toss, yet Gardner was clearly out (again). It appears that a couple reasons are behind it: 1) he's not getting as good a jump as normal, which may be due to Angels pitchers making an extra effort to keep him close; 2) Erick Aybar seems to be excellent at quickly catching the ball and tagging the sliding runner. Anyway, it's ironic that the two Yankees that were caught stealing were Gardner and Jeter while the two successful base-stealers were A-Rod and Posada.

Game 4 is on Thursday at 8 p.m.: Burnett vs. Lackey.

Umpires Greenlight Yankees Game 4 Victory

Rev Halofan — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 03:38:10 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

2 months ago: The Los Angeles Angels manager Mike Scioscia, left, talks with third base umpire Tim McClelland about a fifth inning double tag by Angels catcher Mike Napoli against New York Yankees Robinson Cano and Jorge Posada at Game 4 of the American League Championship baseball series Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. Posada was called out and Cano remained on third as a fielder's choice. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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So two Yankees are tagged not standing on a base, what happens? One is called safe. This is just one of many instances this postseason where the most ratings-friendly team in baseball located in a favorable media market is being gifted more opportunities to score and to wear down the opposing pitcher.

Numerous calls that should have gone the Angels' way and a strike zone the ignored the knees and letters to an Angels starter, Scott Kazmir, who lives on the outer limits of the plate can only add to the frustration as anyone with an historical appreciation of the game can practically smell a media-industrial complex version of Arnold Rothstein collaborating to celebrate the 80th birthday of the Chicago Black Sox in corrupt style.

The soul-killing effect of knowing that the Yankees were getting all the calls while the Yankees were getting ther money's worth out of starter CC Sabathia drowned what was the biggest Angels threat of the evening. It began with a Kendry Morales solo homer and was suddenly two men on with nobody out - but the Angels reverted to their hacking of old and formerly nails-versus lefties Juan Rivera grounded a 2-1 pitch into a double play that was the twist of the knife on the game, and perhaps the season.

But John Lackey faces A.J. Burnett on Thursday night and 6 teams in baseball history have come back down 3 games to 1 to win a 7 game series, so the ALCS may be far from over. If only the phone records and bank statements of the umpiring crew could be more closely scrutinized prior to Thursday evening.

Poll

Blame of the Game

Bobby Abreu

135 votes

Chone Figgins

114 votes

Juan Rivera

216 votes

Scott Kazmir

868 votes

1333 votes | Poll has closed

Day-After Thoughts

dajafi — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 01:12:35 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

2 months ago: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels throws in the outfield during practice for the National League Championship baseball series Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009, in Philadelphia. Hamels will start Game 5 Wednesday against the Los Angeles Dodgers with the Phillies leading the series 3-1. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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A few maybe-pertinent musings while I half-watch the Yankees vs. Angels and wonder how Scott Kazmir, a pitcher who averaged about 5 2/3 innings and 101 pitches per start this season, and has never been particularly efficient, can possibly go deep into this game:

Joe Torre continues to tinker with his lineup and rotation much more than you'd expect, given his rep for unflappability. He's used a different batting order--though the same eight guys--in each of the first four games, and has bumped Vicente Padilla ahead of Game One starter Clayton Kershaw to go tomorrow night with the Dodgers' season on the line. Meanwhile, the Phillies' lineup may as well be written in stone: same eight guys, in the same batting order, through the first eight games of the postseason.
One big concern going into this series was that the Dodgers' two lefty starters, Wolf and Kershaw, and three lefty relievers would neutralize Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. In the most obvious sense, this hasn't come to pass: Howard has been out of his mind against all comers, and has two big hits--his two-run double in Game One against Kershaw and the two-run homer off Wolf in the first inning Monday night--plus a few walks against the southpaws. Ibanez hit the stunning three-run homer off George Sherrill in the first game that provided the margin of victory. Utley had a key RBI single against Wolf that brought the Phils within a run in the sixth inning Monday. But Ibanez is 0 for 10 since that first game, including three hitless at-bats against Wolf and Hong-Chih Kuo/Manny Ramirez, and Utley is 1 for 6--though he's also drawn three walks.
Before Game Two, I didn't think it was especially likely that Padilla would rise to the occasion in what amounted to a must-win game for the Dodgers. Of course, he pitched one of the best games of his life, keeping pace with Pedro Martinez for long enough that the patience of the Dodger hitters, combined with untimely defensive mistakes on the part of the Phillies, delivered two runs and a win. Could the former Phillie, just two months removed from getting released by the Rangers, do it again tomorrow, in a literal must-win, with the crowd in his face and the temperature 35 degrees colder? Padilla's splits offer a mixed prognosis. He was actually better on the road this season, with a 7-2 record, 3.60 ERA and .232 opponent batting average. But night baseball hasn't agreed with him: in 17 appearances (16 starts), he's just 6-5 with a 5.38 ERA and .301 opponent batting average. Nor was Padilla particularly effective in Citizens Bank Park over the two seasons he called it home: 10-11 record, 4.98 ERA in 26 career starts.
Though Cole Hamels earned his fifth career postseason win in Game One, his performance didn't particularly impress. His first two playoff starts have shown some of the same traits that took away from his regular season: loss of focus and composure in one or two bad innings, plus more than a bit of lousy luck. It's been over a month since Hamels last turned in a quality start--an eight-inning, five-hit, one-run, 10-strikeout gem against Washington. That said, every split suggests that Hamels will be sharper against LA for Game Five: he's been better at home, better at night, and has a lot of success against the Dodgers, regular and postseason both, to draw upon.
Still more proof that batting average doesn't tell you much: the Phils as a team are hitting .224 in this series to the Dodgers' .233, and have outscored them 25 to 12.

23 hours until first pitch of Game Five...

ALCS Game 4: Yankees @ Angels, 7:57 PM (Yankees lead 2-1)

Stacey — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 23:30:16 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

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The Angels won an exciting extra inning game yesterday 5-4 to take their first game of the series. CC Sabathia is pitching on three days rest tonight against Scott Kazmir. Sabathia had an oustanding game one and if it works out no one will think twice. If it doesn't, Joe Girardi will be again second guessed for his micro-managing. Kazmir is making his first start of the LCS. He didn't pitch well in the ALDS vs the Red Sox, giving up 5 runs in 6 innings.

Lackey And Saunders are Angels ALCS Yankee Stadium Starters

Rev Halofan — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:14:05 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels helmets are shown during baseball practice in Anaheim, Calif., Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2009. The Angels will face the New York Yankees in the America League championship series beginning Friday in New York. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

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ALCS Game 1: John Lackey @ CC Sabathia

ALCS Game 2: Joe Saunders @ A.J. Burnett

According to the Angels' own website, pitchers John Lackey and Joe Saunders will be the starters in ALCS games 1 and 2 at Yankee Stadium. The assumed Yankee pitchers in those games will be CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. The logic of starting Saunders is two-fold: Lefties pace good at the billion-dollar-Bronx-bandbox and Angel Righty Weaver dominates on his home turf, where Games 3 and 4 are scheduled to take place.

While the Angels have many choices in great pitchers, the Yankees are hindered in a laughable dropoff in starting pitcher strength after their "Initial" two starters. The Bronx Bust may have to gas-out the obese Sabathia while the Halos have a luxury of four able-bodied starters in reserve in Matt Palmer, Ervin Santana, Scott Kazmir and Jered Weaver.

Poll

Is Lackey / Saundo in the Bronx a Good Call?

Yes

669 votes

No

99 votes

768 votes | Poll has closed

Scott Kazmir vs. Red Sox Batters

Rev Halofan — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 09:07:10 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

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Angels Starting Pitcher Scott Kazmir will likely face the following lineup in Boston on Sunday Morning. Here is his record against each batter for regular season matchups...

Jacoby Ellsbury - 6 for 20, 1 double, 2 Ks, .650 OPS

Dustin Pedroia - 15 for 29, 3 doubles, 1 triple, 1 HR, 6 BB, 1 K, 1.393 OPS

Victor Martinez - 5 for 11, all singles, 1 K, .909 OPS

Kevin Youkilis - 9 for 38, 3 doubles, 6 BB, 14 K, .649 OPS

David Ortiz - 9 for 44, 1 double, 2 HR, 6 BB, 11 K, .664 OPS

Jason Bay - 4 for 15, 1 double, 1 HR, 2 BB, 6 K, .886 OPS

Mike Lowell - 10 for 40, 2 doubles, 4 HR, 4 BB, 10 K, .933 OPS

J.D. Drew 1 for 7, 1 triple, 1 BB, 3 K, .900 OPS

Alex Gonzalez - 4 for 10, 1 double, 2 K, .900 OPS

Facing almost this same lineup in Game 2 of the 2008 ALCS, Kazmir surrendered 3 HR, 2 to Pedroia and 1 to Youkilis. He gave up a 2-run double to Bay in the first inning of a 4+ inning start in Tampa Bay on 7 days rest.

In Game 5 of the same series he went 6 innings, gave up 2 hits, no runs, waked 3 and struck out 7. He pitched on his regular 4 days rest.

Kaz will be pitching on 8 days rest in Fenway Park today.

The (Not so) Big Bossman (Jr.): Graph of the Day

Walter Fulbright — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 07:32:16 -0000

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ‘08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

"What's with B.J. Upton?" Fangraphs, Sep. 20, 2009

I'm really not sure if any of you heard about this, but B.J. Upton hit for the cycle. It was the first cycle in all forty-four minutes of the Rays history.

Let's quickly break down said history. The first act of their history was a team with a mission ... to make the best expansion draft selection in Major League history (some guy named Bobby Abreu), and then to immediately trade him to the Phillies for practically nothing.

The second involved, of course, the Hit Parade (McGriff, Canseco, Castilla, and Vaughn), who were roughly a combined 250 years old, giving up Randy Winn in a trade for the right to negotiate with a manager (Lou Piniella, of course, in probably the single worst trade of the last 50 years that didn't involve simply cash), and that thrilling 4th place finish (one of two times they didn't finish last, the other being 2008).

Then of course, the music swells, and the underdog begins to turn it around, starting with the fleecing of the Mets in the Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir trade. It's easy to keep track of what act you're in - just look for a corresponding uniform / team nickname change. Of course, it culminated with the emergence of the stars of their show: Carl Crawford, the aforementioned Kazmir, the tragic hero Rocco Baldelli, the renegade executive Stuart Sternberg, and the two kids who were sure to follow and set the world on fire: Delmon Young (the talented but unfocused hothead), and B.J. Upton. They figured the nucleus of talent would help them compete. It did. And B.J. was a star.

Has it really only been a year since B.J. found his place among the best centerfielders in the league? Does it feel like he's 30 to anyone else? Just how badly have those combination ankle / shoulder injuries slowed him down? Were the home runs two seasons ago and the Beltan impression in last year's playoffs a fluke?

In order: Yes, Your call, A lot, and To some degree. The ankle issue is interesting. The baserunning DVC score is way down from last year (when he would have been a 71), but the fielding score is almost exactly the same, both in percentile rank and UZR (10.3 to 10.5). The shoulder is probably telling us the real difficulty at the plate (despite a weird increase in LD%). And the decreased walk percentage on a team that doesn't preach aggression at the plate is probably a sign of a known hole (or abyss) in his current swing that is covering a good deal of the strike zone. As little fun as it is to say this - we're going to have to wait until 2010 to know for sure. But players don't usually show non speed related skills before the age of 27 that magically disappear in their mid 20s (non Mark Teahen division).

One thing, no actually two things are for certain: The cycle is still a silly and arbitrary way of allocating praise. And 2009, injury-free or not, will more likely be remembered as the year that B.J.'s younger brother Justin Upton surpassed him. And likely their two places will never be reversed again.

Data Visualization: Justin Bopp | Data Collection: Justin Bopp & Walter Fulbright | Data Source: Fangraphs.com, BaseballProspectus.com, Baseballreference.com