SB Nation - Andy Sonnanstine

Andy Sonnanstine and Babe Ruth

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 17:38:39 -0000

Slowinski asked what the Rays should do with Andy Sonnanstine last week. It's pretty obvious. The team needs a new catcher. I don't have to put two and two together for you.

Now the concerns are pretty obvious. Can Sonnanstine catch? Of course he can. Look at how many times he's caught a throw from the catcher back to the mound. Can he hit? Of course he can. He has a .364 wOBA for his career. Plus, you don't need stats to know that Sonnanstine possesses a natural affinity for the wooden instrument of cowhide destruction. Can he throw? Yes. Not hard, but that's never stopped Gregg Zaun.

Some would say "But Brooks Kieschnick tried and failed at being both" and they would be correct. But Brooks Kieschnick was never as good of a pitcher as Sonnanstine is. Plus, Babe Ruth did it, and Sonnanstine has far more in common with Ruth than Kieschnick. Just ask Gary Glover who played with both. As for the Ruth connections, ask Greg Norton who played against Ruth on many a Boston Braves teams, or you could just connect the other chains to the Babe.

For instance. Glover played with Sonnanstine and also with Jose Canseco on the 2001 White Sox, who played with Tommy John on the 1985 A's, who played with Dicky Donovan on the 1964 Indians, who played with Ray Mueller on the 1951 Boston Braves, who played with Ruth on the 1935 Braves. Or, if that one isn't good enough for you, how about Chris Richard, who played with Eric Davis, who played with Pete Rose, who played with Joe Nuxhall, who played with Ray Mueller? Need more? Sonnanstine played with Scott Kazmir who played with Fred McGriff, who played with Phil Niekro, who played with Gus Bell, who also played with Ray Mueller.

Really, this is just a long-misguided attempt to advertise the B-Ref Chain of Teammates toy. If anyone's bored, just punch in a few names and watch how many chains there really are. B.J. Upton connects with Satchel Paige, Carl Crawford rather easily with Tim Raines Sr., and Grant Balfour with Wally Pipp. It's a nice time waster if nothing else.

Monday's Quick Hits

davoag — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 18:28:05 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

3 months ago: Home plate umpire Greg Gibson, left, points during an argument with St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa after throwing La Russa out of a baseball game against the Atlanta Braves during the seventh inning Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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Not much going on besides the managerial search, but there were a couple of stories that caught my eye:

Could Tony LaRussa be out in St. Louis? Tony will retire rather than accept a job elsewhere, but it's interesting to think through the possibilities his leaving would potentially have. First off, would the Cards job be more enticing than the Astros job? Will that limit the managerial pool in Houston's search? Second, does that make Dave Duncan available? Could the Astros land someone like Duncan if they threw enough money at him? Just one of those stories that could create potential ripples that will affect the entire off-season.
R.J. Anderson over at D.Ray's Bay wonders if J.R. Towles makes sense as a trade candidate for Tampa Bay. Obviously the Astros don't have much faith in Towles and special advisor for the Rays Gerry Hunsicker has proven to be a fan of guys he drafted with the Astros (see Zobrist, Ben). Does it make sense for the Astros? Jason Castro will get a chance to win the starting job sooner rather than later. I don't think Houston wants to break in a young backstop before breaking in another in Castro, so I could see them taking a one-year flier on someone like Benjie Molina before giving Castro a chance to win the job by midseason. Tampa Bay also has a surplus of pitching, so maybe a swap of Andy Sonnanstine or Jeremy Hellickson would be enough to get it done.
Since we've already discussed some potential deals, would the Astros think about trading for Matt Gamel? The 23-year old is a year younger than Chris Johnson, and has a better minor league record. Gamel flashed more power in the minors, with an career minor-league OPS of .862 compared to Johnson's .726. They're apparently looking for pitching, but would they be happy with Yorman Bazardo or Polin Trinidad? Putting together a bigger deal with Wandy and J.J. Hardy might be more appealing, but an under-the-radar deal for Gamel might make the most sense long-term.
A couple of managerial notes: This report out of Boston shows the Astros have gotten permission to interview Red Sox third baseman Tim Bogar and bench coach Brad Mills. Add them to the confirmed list that includes Manny Acta, who will probably get the first interview this week. I'll have a post later today on Acta going over his background and managerial career. UPDATE: McTaggart added a couple more confirmed names in Bob Melvin and Al Pedrique, while also running down how the hiring process will shake out.

Andy Sonnanstine and the Need to Work Ahead

FreeZorilla — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 11:00:33 -0000

In 2008, Andy Sonnanstine had the best season according WAR for any Rays pitcher ever not named Scott Kazmir or James Shields. In 2009, it seemed nothing went his way. RJ has looked at overall pitch location and whiff rates by pitch type with nothing concrete emerging. It's time for a new theory for the Pitch F(x) team to attempt to verify.

For a "command" pitcher like Sonny, working ahead in the count is crucial. In 2008, his first pitch strike% was 64%, good for 10^th among all qualified starts in Major League Baseball. This season that % dropped to 56.8%. His overall strike % had a lesser decline from 67.1% to 64.7%. While he was still a "strike thrower," the 35.3% balls may have been coming earlier in counts. In 2008, 35.7% of Batters Faced began the count 1-0. This figure jumped to 43.2% in 2009. What effect does this have on hitters? They are less likely to chase when ahead in the count. Sonny's O-Swing % fell from 25.4% in 2008 all the way to 21.0% this season. Falling behind can be a very dangerous thing when you have a career contact in the zone % of 89.4%.

	2008	2009
1-0 Counts	35.70%	43.20%
O-Swing%	25.40%	21.00%

Working ahead in the count has always been important for Sonny, but it has always been something he has been good at. Consider Sonny's career splits in batting average and slugging % based on hitter/neutral/pitcher counts. We will consider hitters counts as 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1. Pitcher counts include 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2. Neutral counts are 0-0, 1-1, 3-2:

	Sonny Career			2009 AL Avg
	BA	SLG	ISO	BA	SLG	ISO
Pitcher Counts	0.239	0.377	0.138	0.207	0.309	0.102
Neutral Counts	0.341	0.554	0.213	0.304	0.497	0.193
Hitter Counts	0.371	0.661	0.290	0.347	0.590	0.243

Sonny has always been somewhat of a contact pitcher with a consistently higher BABIP. His strength is command, arm angles, multiple pitches and a low walk rate. It's not surprising to see higher numbers across the board for Sonny relative to league average numbers. However a career BA/SLG/ISO split of .371/.661/.290 on hitter counts mandates that Sonny work ahead of the hitters. How many Plate Appearances ended on what type of counts in 2009?

	2008	2009
Hitter Counts	18.4%	23.3%
Pitcher Counts	52.5%	51.4%
Neutral Counts	29.1%	25.3%

Both pitcher and neutral counts declined in favor of an increase in hitter counts. This is a disaster for Sonny. The last thing I wanted to look at today is the year over year change in 3 ball count results:

Split	PA	BB%	K%
Full Count 08	74	17.6%	24.3%
Full Count 09	35	34.3%	5.7%
After 3-0 08	30	50.0%	10.0%
After 3-0 09	21	66.7%	0.0%
After 3-1 08	53	34.0%	13.2%
After 3-1 09	30	60.0%	0.0%

Sonny was a total failure at battling back in the count in 2009. He walked 34.3% of Full Counts, almost twice the previous season while his full count strikeouts fell from 24.3% to 5.7%. None of the 5.7% started out at 3-0 or 3-1. How much of this dramatic shift was a conscious managerial decision based on opponents batting success in hitting counts versus Sonny or his own sub-conscious nibbling cannot be determined. What is clear is that Sonny has always had a higher BABIP and ISO than the average pitcher and the difference is exaggerated on hitter counts. We know Sonny fell behind in the count more frequently in 2009 putting himself in dangerous situations for himself. Finally, Sonny walked a much greater percentage of hitters once he allowed 3 balls in 2009. I'd be curious what Pitch F(x) would tell us about first pitch selection, location, and opponent reaction.

Andy Sonnanstine Leaves No One

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 11:00:23 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

They say there's something telling in the eyes of a murderer. I don't really believe that, but good grief, lighten up Andy.

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It's not the strong that survive, but the most adaptable. - A paraphrasing of Charles Darwin's theory of evolution.

At its core, pitching is a form of sadism and survival.

Every pitch is an act of disobedience towards the body's natural movement. Every base runner allowed is another to be blamed with. Every tendency studied, every pitch clocked and recorded, and if you have a weakness, it won't be a secret for long. Pitchers must constantly evolve in philosophy and ability to stick in the major leagues. The ones who don't fail to last long.

This brings me to Andy Sonnanstine. Sonnanstine has faced a little under 1,800 batters in his career but possesses a 64% strand rate. League average is generally around 70%. During any given season you would expect that ratio to regress towards the mean unless the pitcher has a history that suggests otherwise. Star pitchers are known to strand a good deal more than average while lesser beings strand fewer runners. This is to say that clutch pitching does exist - Tom Glavine being the poster boy - and tends to be a repeatable skill.

I do not know the exact batters faced total in which we should start looking at this being true talent rather than bad luck, but stuff like this tends to stabilize rather quickly - which is to say it's the anti-BABIP. With such, I decided to look at potential reasons for Sonnanstine's struggles (and this is putting it lightly) with men on for the first time ... well ever.

In state with nobody on base Sonnanstine's career OPS against is .741 (BABIP of .289) meanwhile with someone on (base is irrelevant) his OPS against is .899 (BABIP is .356), so what gives?

To the pitchfx cave we go.

I started this research with the idea to look at every single pitch thrown by base state. Needless to say, with 16 starts in my database that became tedious and overwhelming. Instead, I limited the first test to Sonnanstine's start in Oakland. He allowed a plethora of baserunners and was always pitching with his back against the wall.

25 of 79 pitches were made without a runner on. That is an incredibly poor rate. Here's the breakdown by pitch type:

1 four-seam

4 sliders

9 curves

11 cutters

For the 54 with men on, the breakdown is as follows:

1 pitch-out

1 change-up

11 sliders

12 cutters

13 four-seam

16 curves

Sonnanstine goes from not using his four-seam fastball to using it quite a bit. His cutter is used fewer times relative to total pitches thrown while his curve and slider mor+e. Do these approaches on this day differ in location?

It's hard to say. Sonnanstine appears to be all over the place with men on. How about release points:

Even with the knowledge that Sonnanstine threw a pitch-out, the spread of release points - horizontally - is wider and suffers from more variation. We have a n of one right now, so while it would be easy to say Sonnanstine just isn't comfortable with his release points from the stretch - or perhaps comfortable with his original release point from the stretch and attempts to fool batters by changing things up - it does give us something to look at in other starts, and look at I did.

I randomly sampled three other starts which give us a sample size of one-fourth of Sonnanstine's total starts entering Labor Day. I found that similar tendencies were displayed in each; leading me to question whether Sonnnanstine is making a conscious effort to change his release points, why, and if this potentially causes reduced effectiveness. It's important to note these altered points are inconsistent with the changes Sonnanstine used upon arrival. Those were vertical shifts more so than horizontal. He's essentially sliding along the x-axis

I also wonder, given his improved statistics with men on in the minors this season, if the Rays have attempted to fix this. Minor league pitchfx data is obviously unavailable and I'm not going to put a ton of weight on what is one start back, but this is an interesting quirk, if not entirely telling, of the issues with Sonnanstine's strand rate.

Unfortunately there is little in ways of absolute. Maybe it's his release points, maybe it's his pitch selection, maybe it's something I didn't think of. I'm simply providing something that stuck out in the data I looked at.

Only time will tell if Sonnanstine alters his path from dodo bird to canary.

Sox-Rays III Postgame: For Whom The Cowbell Tolls

0157H7 — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 03:35:30 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher David Price makes his bid for a Rodin-esque statue. Suggested title: The Loser. (AP Photo/Mike Carlson; caption by E.Coli.)

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Coming into the final Sox-Rays series in Petrograd, all the pressure was on the Rays. Boston was five games ahead of Tampa in the Wild-Card race with a month left to play. If Evan Longoria, Jason Bartlett and co. wanted to see the playoffs, their best shot was a series sweep.

Luckily, the once-listless Sox have suddenly found their list - with last night's game they took the series, 2-1. Considering that they were facing Sox killers Andy Sonnanstine, Matt Garza, and David Price, this was no little task.

Boston struck quickly tonight, with two runs in the 1st, which the Rays answered in the bottom of the inning. Boston took the lead again in the second, on a home run by recovering Ray Rocco Baldelli (I think go-ahead homer against your former team is step #11). Tampa tied it again in the 4th, but a Lowell sac fly put Boston ahead again in the 6th. Two insurance runs came in the 7th off of Chad Bradford.

Buchholz was solid, registering a quality start, allowing six hits and only one walk over six innings. Just three K's is a little distressing, but given his 2008 walk woes, pitching to contact isn't all bad. By contrast, David Price was unimpressive, ceding 4 runs in 5.1 innings; hardly what we'd expect from the phenom who shut down the Sox in Game 7 of the '08 ALCS. Best of all, the bullpen did nothing to embarrass Tito, as Wagner, Bard and Paps combined for three shut-out, no hit-innings.

Player of the game is Buchholz. Youk and Bay combined for 5-9, 8 total bases, but a strong starting pitching performance was the key tonight.

The Sun is setting on the Rays' playoff hopes. You ask me, it couldn't have happened to a nicer team.

Poll

Are the Tampa Bay Rays' playoff dreams finished?

Yes. 6 games is too much ground to try to make up in just a month.

197 votes

No. I believe in you, Pikachu! Heart of the Cards! Power of the Cowbell!

28 votes

I hear Bud Selig's going to move both the Rays and Marlins to Canada. Reason: there are more baseball fans in the desolate frozen tundra than in all of Florida.

90 votes

315 votes | Poll has closed

Is Wade Davis Ready For The Rays Rotation?

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 10:00:29 -0000

WD-Day is coming. via cache.daylife.com

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At this point there is no correct answer to the question raised in the title of this article simply because we haven't seen Wade Davis pitch at this level. However, after Andy Sonnanstine's peformance Tuesday, the Rays have decided it's time to find out if he is. Davis has posted an FIP 3.81 so for this season for the Durham Bulls. Despite that number, anybody who thinks that Davis is going to walk in that door on Sunday and be a sub 4 FIP pitcher out of the gate is most likely going to end up disappointed.

Davis ranks 12th in the International League in swinging strike percentage amongst starters, however, he's in the top five in overall strikeouts with nearly 21% of at-bats ending in a K. Depending on where you get the numbers from, Davis is somewhere between 37-40% groundballs for the season. Our favorite guru, Rick Peterson, said the biggest evaluators of a starting pitcher are the ability to get swinging strikes and induce groundballs. If Davis can continue doing what he did at Durham this would definitely help in his transition to big league starter along with his mid 90s fastball and hammer curveball.

Davis, 23, has pitched 158.2 innings so far in Triple A this season. He pitched a combined 160.2 between Double-A and Durham last year. As a ball park figure, the Rays usually don't increase a young pitcher's inning total more than 20% year over year. This would put Davis's "limit" somewhere near ~195 innings. Assuming Davis takes a turn every five to six says until the end of the season we're looking at an addition 25-30 innings of work on top of the 158.2 he has so far. This would fall in line with the 20% increase. If we assume that Davis can be league average or so (4.5 FIP) thats about 14-16 expected earned runs over those innings.

One would hope that two above average seasons in Durham means that he is as ready as he'll ever be to take the next step and be a key member of the rotation for years to come. Of course, many prospects have posted good numbers only to flame out at the top level. We don't know which path Davis' career will take, but we are about to start finding out.

Andy Sonnanstine's Thesis About Random Walks in the Ballpark

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 02:09:53 -0000

In the end, it's one start.

I remind you and myself of this by stating it upfront. If this were Wade Davis or Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Garza or James Shields, this would be the proverbial adhesive stuck to the mental box score with a staple attached just in case. It's not though.

Four walks, by Andy Sonnanstine, in one game? That makes no sense. I've checked the stat line thrice over at this point because I find it hard to believe. From 2006-2008 Sonnanstine never walked four in one game. That stretch spans three levels of baseball, 93 starts in total and Sonnanstine never, ever walked four in one game. Tonight marked his third major league start of the season in which he's walked four.

It's one game, but it's really not.

You watch Sonnanstine pitch without the counts and without the batted ball results - strip the game like they do in football - and it's incomprehensible how he walked this many. In the first inning 12 of his 20 pitches were strikes against five batters faced; 13 of his 22 pitches in the second were strikes to even batters faced; 8/13 in the third versus three; 17/24 in the fourth to eight; and 4 of his 5 against two in the fifth. 60% all told.

With James Shields and David Price I've discussed the random variation related with walks and such. Some would say random lapses in control. How do you explain these random splotches occurring to a guy renowned for his ability to avoid them? Why is it happening, why now, and how can it be fixed?

I don't really know. I can splice pitchfx data from now until dawn and odds are I couldn't find anything damning. If Josh Kalk presumably can't find a problem - and it's his wont and job for crying out loud - then I'm no match.

Assuming Sonnanstine's true talent walk rate was ~5% of the total batters, then the odds of him walking 4 within 30 is less than 2%. You can see where eyeballs get protruded when it happens so many times in such a short period of time.

Either you assume his control has worsened - a distinct possibility given his increase in balls - or that he accidentally ran over a black cat during the off-season. It gets hard for me to label it random variation at this point. Either he's hurt or mentally he thinks he has to be perfect every time he throws a pitch, leading to some physical gaffes.

How do you fix that? Can you fix that? Again I don't know. If I was enlisted by Oliver Perez's foundation - the Center for Nervous Pitcher Breakdown Prevention - to write a pamphlet on prevention would read as this:

DO NOT FORCE HIM INTO A 3-1 COUNT

Joe Maddon is apparently not a fan of my theoretical literature and decided to pitch out and force Sonnanstine's hand against Dustin Pedroia. The at-bat resulted in a walk and maybe it occurs anyways, still pitching out twice in one plate appearance is a terrible idea. Maddon has confidence in Sonnanstine to throw a strike but really he should have more confidence in Sonnanstine's ability to hold a runner. Dating back over 69 career starts in the bigs, Sonnanstine has allowed 3 steals and saw 13 caught stealing. Either he, his catcher, or both know how to keep the guy on the base. Yet Maddon didn't trust him with Ellsbury.

Enough about the other things though, let's look at the physical properties of his pitches.

He used a rainbow of release points to toss 38 cutters (only one swinging strike), 29 sliders (two whiffs), 9 curves (1 swing and miss), a change-up, five four-seamers, and a two-seamer. That doesn't add up to 91 pitches and for whatever reason Gameday missed seven, but four hacks out of 84 pitches is 4.8%. Not good, not good at all.

It's one start back with issues.

I hope it stays that way.

What to Expect from Andy Sonnanstine?

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 10:00:20 -0000

by J Pat Carter - AP

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Andy Sonnanstine makes his return tonight. Everyone knows what he throws, how he gets batters out, how batters take him out, and so on, but there's not much else to write about, so here we are.

He pitched modestly well at Durham, posting the second best tRA and FIP in the Bulls rotation. His whiff rate was 8.4%, quite a bit lower than his last go around in Durham, but higher than his previous two seasons in the majors. The inspiring aspect might be his ball% sinking back to levels we'd expect of Sonnastine and his overall strikeout/walk ratios improving.

The bad news? He found himself even more reliant on fly balls. As mentioned ad nauseam prior to his demotion, Sonnanstine's home run per fly ball ratio was well, well above the expected range for starting pitchers. The increase is minimal and won't have much of an effect on this number. His seasonal number is still going to be above average, still we should expect about 11% of his fly balls to go for homers, perhaps less given the Trop's homer depressant attitude.

During his time up, he threw a cutter, two-seam fastball, curve, and slider. His two-seamer is the only pitch that actually broke towards right-handed batters, the rest broke away. Obviously his other pitches have varying degree of vertical and horizontal break but it would seem to me that Sonnanstine is easier to hit when you can sit back and know 80% of his pitches are going to move towards the plate. His change-up wasn't very good last season though, so what do I know anyways?

The pitch to watch for is his slider. Last year the pitch was in the plus, this year it was atrocious for seemingly no reason. The pitch is breaking less vertically but as much horizontally. Maybe there's some deception missing or he simply didn't have a good feel on it, but the pitch must improve if Sonnanstine is going to have more success along the way.

ZiPS forecasts him as a league average starter moving forward. I think that's appropriate. There's a non-zero chance these next few starts are his last with the Rays so hopefully he can call upon the Sonnanstine of late 2008 lore and put away chants of Kazmirian nature.

Andy Sonnanstine To Replace Scott Kazmir In Rays Rotation

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 00:08:53 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

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While some (me) had hoped the Rays would tap Wade Davis to replace Scott Kazmir in the Rays rotation, the Rays have decided to go with an old favorite in Boom Boom, Andy Sonnanstine. Sonny, who was sent to Durham in late June to make room for Scott Kazmir after going 6-7 with a 6.61 ERA/5.13 FIP in 15 starts, will now take his place once he is officially recalled on Tuesday. Since going down to Durham, Sonny has gone 5-3 with a 4.40 ERA/3.37 FIP in nine starts. After posting a career low 2.27 K/BB earlier this season, Sonnanstine has bumped that back to 4.0 in his Durham stint. There is also a case of mono, but Andy's gotta do what Andy's gotta do.

Assuming Sonny will take all of the remaining turns, there is a chance he could be seeing the Red Sox quite often. If you remember Sonny did some of his best Sonny things against Boston last September. If Sonny can pitch to or around his career number of a 4.27 FIP, the loss of Scott Kazmir will be minimal even if he posts a 3.5 FIP the rest of the way. If Sonny makes seven starts and averages five innings per start with a 4.5 FIP and Kaz does the same with a 3.5 FIP, the difference is a whopping four runs total.

The Tampa Bay Rays Rotation, Pitch Counts & Rick Peterson

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:00:14 -0000

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Agree or disagree with the logic behind it, but by now we've been programmed to start paying attention to a pitchers count at 100 pitches. 100 pitches isn't the absolute rule, and guys like Matt Garza and Roy Halladay amongst others are equipped to go past 100. However, on most nights a manager would be happy to have his starter reach the century mark and get him six or seven innings.

For the Rays this has been true on many nights. While each game is different, the Rays starters as a group have averaged 99 pitches per start. However, pitching guru Rick Peterson suggests that 100 isn't the magical number we should be looking at. In fact, Peterson says it's lower.

"The data tells us that once a pitcher reaches 90 pitches, the performance rate is drastically impacted. In fact, the batting average against (BAA) almost doubles. The data is there to support this." "Sure, elite guys like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia do not have such a variance. But, by and large, the majority of pitchers do."--Fullcountpitch.com

Of course after reading such a statement my interest was piqued. Here is a look at the six starters used by the Rays broken down by pitch count...

Shields	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	176	0.335	0.358	0.471	0.392	5.33
26-50	185	0.256	0.286	0.369	0.295	3.63
51-75	177	0.202	0.237	0.321	0.222	3.75
76-100	167	0.277	0.352	0.486	0.298	1.69
100+	27	0.391	0.481	0.913	0.4	1.25

Kazmir	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	102	0.28	0.422	0.463	0.322	0.95
26-50	129	0.277	0.328	0.479	0.287	2.38
51-75	127	0.265	0.323	0.372	0.312	2
76-100	104	0.283	0.356	0.511	0.31	2.25
100+	17	0.333	0.412	0.467	0.417	1.5

Garza	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	140	0.231	0.279	0.354	0.292	5.43
26-50	165	0.259	0.329	0.422	0.297	2.46
51-75	161	0.21	0.304	0.37	0.223	1.78
76-100	151	0.25	0.331	0.402	0.284	1.65
100+	51	0.163	0.275	0.302	0.179	2.33

Niemann	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	147	0.254	0.327	0.446	0.264	1.91
26-50	163	0.26	0.319	0.333	0.311	2.42
51-75	140	0.246	0.321	0.397	0.269	1.23
76-100	119	0.276	0.333	0.381	0.317	2.2
100+	20	0.316	0.35	0.632	0.25	1

Price	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	86	0.324	0.419	0.581	0.339	1.18
26-50	95	0.193	0.284	0.349	0.23	2.1
51-75	96	0.284	0.344	0.477	0.328	2.5
76-100	84	0.284	0.361	0.425	0.321	1.5
100+	18	0.125	0.222	0.188	0.2	3

Sonnanstine	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	94	0.326	0.362	0.551	0.338	2.6
26-50	97	0.315	0.371	0.506	0.333	1.38
51-75	102	0.255	0.314	0.521	0.254	2.43
76-100	66	0.333	0.364	0.476	0.377	4.5
100+	3	0.333	0.333	0.333	0.333	0

Shields follows the Peterson model more than any other Rays starter. After holding opponents to a .558 OPS during pitches 51-75, that jumps 280 points to .838 after pitch 75. This surprised me as Shields usually works deep into the game, and at least my perception was he got better in the latter stages of the game. In fact it's quite the opposite especially after Shields reaches 100 pitches. His BABIP jumps to over .400 and opponents slug .913 against him. Very small sample size, but it seems Shields gets tired very quickly once at the century mark. As for Scott Kazmir, he starts off slowly before locking in during pitches 51-75. After pitch 75, his OPS against jumps up nearly .200 points back in to the mid .800s from 76-100.

For Matt Garza, the split is less than Shields or Kazmir, but there is a nearly 60 point OPS difference as Garza nears 100. As mentioned above Garza is a different animal. He has been his strongest at 100+ pitches, so it should come as no surprise that he leads the Rays in 100-119 pitch performances with 18 on the season.

When it comes to Jeff Niemann and David Price there doesn't seem to be a noticable difference on the march to 100. Both pitchers, especially Price, seem to struggle early on before settling down and going to work. In a SSS Price seems to channel Garza once he goes over 100 pitches, while Niemann has been lit up like Shields in his small sample size. The final member of the group is Andy Sonnanstine. As much as I hate to say it, Sonny got hit around regardless of pitch count. In no group was his opponent's OPS lower than .835 and that is just not good.

It's no shock that there is not a magic number across the board. Each pitcher is built different and throws different stuff. While there is no specific number, each pitcher will always have some sort of pitch count. We may not like it on some nights, but pitchers are conditioned this way and it's not going to just change.

"Think about it as a runner. Let's say he runs three or four miles a day which would average about 27 miles a week. He's conditioned to that routine. Then, the runner decides to do away with consistent training and will run however long he feels like it - like Forrest Gump. So, one day he runs seven miles, the next 8, and the next 4 and so on. So, one week he runs about 40 miles and then the next he runs 50, followed by 60 miles. What happens to his legs? He burns out and gets hurt."---Fullcountpitch.com

After all, owners are always going to look after their investments, and paying big money to injured pitchers is not a good business practice, right Rick?

Baseball spent $1.2 billion dollars on pitchers' salaries in 2008. $330 million dollars of that money was spent on injured pitchers. We have a problem here."--fullcountpitch.com

For more on Rick Peterson's thoughts click one of the fullcountpitch.com links. H/T to Baseball-Reference.com for the splits.