SB Nation - J.P. Howell

Can Rafael Soriano Top The Greatest Closing Season In Rays History?

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Kind of a loaded question, but we hope so. We can argue about designated roles, and who is really the Rays best relief pitcher, but Rafael Soriano will hold the title. The team, as well as the other relievers, should benefit from that fact. That also means that he'll get a chance to answer the question posed in the title.

Like catcher and right field, the Rays search for a closer more often than not has come up empty handed. While Mariano Rivera has racked up 478 saves since the (Devil) Rays debut in 1998, 39 different Rays' relievers have comprised the franchise's 427 saves. We now turn to Soriano and hope #40 is the charm.

Looking back on Rays closers, the list is a mixed bunch. Ranging from one of the all-time save kings in Troy Percival down to Lance Carter, the list is hardly a picture of relief aces. Since we know a closer shouldn't be limited to, or just measured by, saves, I decided to set the criteria for a closer as such: The reliever must have pitched at least 40 relief innings in a season with a pLI minimum of 1.60. Here is the list:

Year	Player	IP	pLI
2009	J.P Howell	66.2	1.82
2008	Troy Percival	45.2	1.79
2008	Dan Wheeler	66.1	1.72
2007	Al Reyes	60.2	1.66
2005	Danys Baez	72.1	2.16
2004	Danys Baez	68	1.7
2003	Lance Carter	79	1.73
2002	Esteban Yan	69	2.05
2001	Esteban Yan	62.1	1.82
2000	Roberto Hernandez	73.1	1.95
1999	Roberto Hernandez	73.1	2.21
1998	Roberto Hernandez	71.1	1.73

You'll notice that 2006 is missing; that's because there was zero qualified candidates. No reliever with a minimum of 40 innings even topped a 1.2 pLI. Depending on which part of that season you're looking at, the Rays "closer" could've been any one of the following: Tyler Walker, Dan Miceli, Brian Meadows, Seth McClung, or Shawn Camp. Atrocious.

Now that we have our list, here is how those pitchers performed by FIP:

Year	Player	FIP
1999	Roberto Hernandez	2.94
2001	Esteban Yan	3.23
2009	J.P Howell	3.71
2000	Roberto Hernandez	4.13
2005	Danys Baez	4.2
2004	Danys Baez	4.25
1998	Roberto Hernandez	4.44
2008	Dan Wheeler	4.49
2003	Lance Carter	4.69
2002	Esteban Yan	4.7
2007	Al Reyes	4.85
2008	Troy Percival	5.87

Going with this quick and easy method of analysis, Roberto Hernandez's 1999 season is the golden standard for all Rays' relievers. Hernandez not only had the highest pLI in Rays history, but also the lowest FIP for a closer. A quick check of CHONE's historical WAR database says Hernandez was worth 3.1 wins above replacement that season. Nonetheless, the D-Rays finished in last place that season with a record of 69-93.

The surprise on the list has to be Esteban Yan in 2001. More famous for being referenced in the Simpsons than anything on the field, Yan had the second best closing season according to FIP. Despite what some believe, save percentage does not tell you the whole story. 2009's version of J.P. Howell finished third on the FIP list, and had the Iceman not melted late in 2009, he probably would've given Yan and Hernandez a run for their money.

While the older, oft-injured closer approached has worked in short doses, Troy Percival and his predecessor, Al Reyes, are among the worst closing seasons in the franchise's history.

In 2009, Rafael Soriano posted a pLI of 1.66 for the Braves. He finished with 75.2 innings pitched and a fantastic FIP of 2.54. If he can some how duplicate last season's success in 2010, we will witness the greatest closer season in Rays' history. Not to put to much pressure on the man's right arm (it's fragile, after all), if Soriano can give the Rays 65 high leverage innings and maintain an FIP in the 3.5 season, I'll gladly take that.

Why The Rays 1-2 Bullpen Punch Might Be Good Enough Part-One; The Set-Up

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 11:00:22 -0000

by Tony Gutierrez - AP

An ugly ERA, should prevent Tampa Bay Rays' reliever, Grant Balfour from earning his true value in arbitration. For him this is bad, for the team and us, this is good.

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The Atlanta Braves have wasted no time in setting the market for relief pitching. The signing of Billy Wagner to a one-year deal worth seven million dollars should give teams a barometer for other available closers. I'm not saying Wagner has set the bar, but it's something to compare nonetheless. Atlanta also made their move in the setup man market with the signing of Takashi Saito. The Braves guaranteed him $3.2 million dollars to be Wagner's wingman. Both former Red Sox are a bit long in the tooth and have some injury questions, but are good pitchers; in Wagner's case great when 100%.

Meanwhile in Tampa Bay we are still waiting for relief of our own. After Frank Wren and John Coppolella dashed many dreams of Wagner in a Rays uniform, hopefully reality has set it for those who still remain optimistic that the Rays will land a big money closer. If Wagner received $7 million, expect Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano to make the same if not more. As we've said multiple times, the Rays will undoubtledly add a reliever (or 10), but it will be of the Kiko Calero variety. And really that's fine because the Rays already have their Wagner and Saito in house.

Like James Shields, Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell are slightly lower on the talent todem pole than some of their well known peers. Also like Shields, they are providing something that their peers aren't; great value. If the payroll allowed for it, I would have no problem with the Rays shelling out the money for top notch relief pitching, but since the funds aren't readily available, I prefer to have them allocated elsewhere like extensions of our younger talent.

Over the past two seasons, Saito and Balfour have posted similar numbers. In 2008, Saito posted a phenominal 2.00 FIP as the part-time closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers spearheaded by his dazzling 11.49 K/9 and his impressive 0.19 HR/9 over 47 innings. Not to be completely out done, as many of you remember Balfour spend most of his 2008 campaign telling opposing batters to STFD. Arguably a top three reliever in the American League, Balfour posted an FIP of 2.22 in 58.1 innings of ball in the highly competitive AL East. His 12.65 K/9 lead the league and his 0.46 HR/9 wasn't too shabby either.

In 2009, both relievers took a step back from their nearly unrepeatable 2008's. Even the step back, both were still above average firemen. Saito found like in the AL East a bit more difficult as his FIP doubled and then some. However, he still finished with a respectable 4.25 moving from Dodgers closer to Johnathan Papelbon's caddy in Boston. Despite pitching a few more innings than the previous season, Saito finished with less K's overall and saw his K/9 drop from 11.49 to 8.41. He also saw that miniscule 0.19 HR/9 rise to 0.97, but I'll chalk that up to regression of his HR/FB rate from 2.3 to 7.3 (career 5.7).

Like Saito, Balfour saw some struggles in 2009. However, it was not nearly as bad as his 4.81 ERA suggest or the numerous BALFOUR MUST GO comments we heard from fans. It's true, Balfour gets a little loose with the free pass often, but that's what he's expected to do. Balfour has lived up to his surname nearly five times per nine innings in his career and did so nearly 4.5 times last season. It's far from ideal, but when you strike out over a batter per inning, certain privileges are granted. With the added walks, Balfour saw a decrease in strikeouts of over three per nine innings. Despite the large drop off, Balfour still struckout a batter per nine and ended the season with a K/9 of 9.22. Like his counterpart, he experienced a slight regression in HR/FB rate, but the Aussie still managed to keep the ball in the part at a decent 0.80 clip. More walks, less strikeouts and more home runs are never a good thing, but nonetheless, Balfour's FIP was nearly a half run lower than Saito's despite carrying and ERA of 2.5 runs higher. A near 25% difference in LOB% will do that sometimes.

We know Saito will make a guaranteed $3.2 million dollars. There are also incentives based on games finished, but the Braves hope that a healthy Wagner will take care of that. There is another $500k in non game finishing incentives. That means there is a decent chance Saito could make ~$4 million dollars in 2010. Even at that price, he should still a value especially with the league change.

Balfour, on the other hand, made $1.4 million dollars in 2009 as an arbitration (2) eligible player. His eyesore ERA should keep him from getting true value in his third round of arbitration which I ballpark around $3.2 million dollars. More likely than not, Balfour will get a raise putting him over $2 million, but a bit shy of $3.2 million.

No, this will not satisfy the pitchforked crowd that view Balfour as an uncontrollable wild man, but this wasn't my intention. However, for the group of us that can look past the walks and the bloated ERA, I think this reinforces the fact that while we can all agree the need for help in the bullpen is needed, some of that help is already here.

A look at the left handed closer side of these duos next week.

Free Agent Profile: LaTroy Hawkins

davoag — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:49:55 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

Will the Hawk be back in Houston?

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We already covered the basics of the reliever market with Jose Valverde's profile, so I thought the most illuminating thing to do with Hawkins is to see which teams might actually need a closer this winter. That, of course, is going to be the difference in him signing for 5-7 million and 2-3 million.

Hawkins has saved almost exactly the same number of games in the American League (44) as in the National League (43). Heading into his Age 37 season, he's probably not looking at more than a two-year deal and probably only a one-year contract.

Will it be a big deal if the Astros don't sign Valverde or Hawkins this winter? It will, but only because that's likely the only move they will make this winter. With the news that the Braves are shopping both Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez, why wouldn't the Astros move on one of those guys instead? I'd rather have 200 innings in the starting rotation than 50 in the back of the bullpen. Remember the Cardinals went into last season with no closer at all and found one in Ryan Franklin (after a bumpy start to the season). Why couldn't the Astros do something similar? Throw Fulchino, Gervacio, Chad Paronto and any other cheap, hard thrower you want at the wall and see who sticks.

A quick note: I wrote up a quick scouting report of Jason Castro's AFL Rising Stars performance, for those who didn't get to see him on my minor league blog, Minor Musings. I'll avoid reposting by just directing you that way, if you are so inclined. At any rate, here are the teams who could be in the market for a closer...

Atlanta Braves

2009 saves: Rafael Soriano (27), Mike Gonzalez (10)

Notes: With both Soriano and Gonzalez becoming free agents, the Braves may be in the market for a closer. Of course, they also have a ridiculous amount of pitching depth, so they may end up picking up a closer in a trade for Vasquez or Lowe. Don't rule out converting a guy like Jo-Jo Reyes into the role of closer as well.

Baltimore Orioles

2009 saves: George Sherrill (20), Jim Johnson (10)

Notes: Johnson took over the closer's role once Sherrill was traded to the Dodgers, but it's anyone's guess whether the Orioles will keep him there. McPhail has not been shy about pursuing the top names on the market and could make a play for Valverde. It's more likely that the Orioles fill this gap from in-house guys, though.

Detroit Tigers

2009 saves: Fernando Rodney (37), Brandon Lyon (3)

Notes: Like the Braves, both Rodney and Lyon are free agents. Also like the Braves, the Tigers have a couple of candidates to fill the void. Remember Joel Zumaya? After three straight years of throwing less than 34 innings, he's probably not a great candidate to land the closer role, but he is still just 24 years old and has potential. I could see the Tigers investing in a mid-tier guy with a one-year deal. Maybe someone like Billy Wagner?

Tampa Bay Rays

2009 saves: J.P. Howell (17), Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Troy Percival (6), Joe Nelson (3)

Notes: As you can see, the Rays definitely went with a closer-by-committee approach last season. I'm not sure what payroll flexibility they will have this offseason, but if they do have money to spend, it definitely makes sense for them to find a back-end bullpen guy. Competing in the AL East, they need a solid closer and don't have one right now.

Toronto Blue Jays

2009 saves: Jason Frasor (11), Scott Downs (9), B.J. Ryan (2)

Notes: With the transition at the top of the organization, I doubt the Blue Jays make a splash in free agency again for a closer. This isn't a bad situation due to free agents leaving as much as guys just not performing. Look for one of the Jays young pitchers to be slotted into this role next year. Either that or a trade for a guy like Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins.

Other teams possibly shopping: Arizona (depending how they view Qualls), Cincinnati (Only if they move Cordero), Colorado (Huston Street is arb-eligible), Washington (McDougald had hip surgery).

All in all, there are just not that many spots open for closers. It's a bad offseason for guys like Valverde and Hawkins. I'd expect at least one of them to stick with the Astros, but I'm not sure which one the team values more at this point.

Regarding J.P. Howell's "Issues" As Closer

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:28:08 -0000

I've heard and read a few comments saying the Rays really need to invest in a closer - oxymoron - because J.P. Howell just isn't cut out of the job. The Rays should sign someone like [Veteran Pitcher] so Howell can go back to roving as a fireman and leave the saves to a more qualified arm. Naturally, I was befuddled when I viewed his ERA in save situations. ERA lacks in quality and I would never encourage using it as a meaningful measure, but the casual fan eats it up like chocolate-coated ham. Have a look for yourselves:

Situation	IP	SO%	uBB%	HR%	ERA	FIP
Sv	26	32.8	14.7	2.6	2.77	3.97
Non-Sv	40.7	25.3	8	2.5	2.88	3.5

A better ERA and only a slightly worse FIP. Here's a list of things we know after looking at the above data:

1. J.P. Howell is a good relief pitcher.

2. 40 innings is not a large sample size and leaves a lot of room for variance.

3. 26 innings is even smaller.

4. Howell's issues with walks were almost evened out by his increase in strikeouts.

5. The Rays shut him down due to fatigue.

Nothing indicates Howell is incapable of closing games. Jonathan Papelbon had a 3.1 FIP in save situations this year. Francisco Rodriguez went to the N.L. and still had a FIP around 4.37 in save situations. Jose Valverde's was north of 3.7 too. The list goes on and on.

I don't particularly care if Howell is the closer or not next year - heck, him not being the closer probably saves on arbitration costs - but to say he "doesn't have ‘it'" or buckled in his chance is ridiculous. He pitched fine, and if you're willing to make broad statements like that based on less than 30 innings of work then bigger issues are in play.

Howell may or may not close next year, but it won't be because he somehow failed in his duties this season.

Note: I hand-calculated the FIP and used a constant of 3.2. So the exact totals are about a third of a run off FanGraph's FIP.

J.P. Howell: Four Pitch Puppet Master

FreeZorilla — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 10:00:28 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

J.P,'s Glove of Magic Tricks

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In 2009, there were 1023 different pitches thrown a minimum of 200 times by individual pitchers. J.P. Howell managed to produce 4in the top 169 in terms of Non-Contact Strike% (NCS), which includes both whiffs and called strikes. In all of Major League Baseball there were just two other pitchers with three pitches in the top 200, a couple no-names in Tim Lincecum and Jorge De La Rosa (none in the top 15, J.P. has 2). There were an additional 25 pitchers with 2 pitches on the list. Our little lefty soft-tosser managed to stand alone with 4 offerings making the cut. Here is a look at Howell's pitch usage, whiff rates, called strike rates, NCS rates, and the rank among all 1023 pitches for each:

Type	Use%	Whiff	Rank	CallStk%	Rank	NCS	Rank
CH	20.4%	20.5%	44	19.0%	372	39.5%	14
CU	35.2%	19.6%	52	13.3%	834	32.9%	112
FA	23.1%	2.6%	995	37.5%	1	40.1%	9
FF	21.3%	1.9%	1015	29.4%	9	31.3%	163

It's safe to say J.P. Howell knows how to mix up his pitches to keep hitters guessing and off balance. His changeup and curveball are in the top 52 in terms of whiff %. That's not all that surprising. What is surprising is the way is two and four-seam fastballs freeze hitters. Both are in the bottom 28 in terms of whiff rate, but are in the top 10 in terms of called strikes. That oh-so-pedestrian 86mph fastball has hitters consistently watching it cross the plate, unable to get the bat off their shoulders. What a phenomenal assortment of complementary pitches, and great game calling, to keep hitters so off balance. Howell's two-seamer is taken 78.5% of the time, a full 5% more often than the next most taken pitch in major league baseball; Joe Saunder's curveball. When you compare the Called Strike % between the pitches, Howell wins by an astounding margin of 37.5% to 25.8%. In fact, there are only 5 pitches in Major League Baseball with pitches north of 30% in called strikes.

Remember, these %'s are based on overall pitches. What if we isolate the NCS as a % of Swings or Takes? We'll look at swinging strikes as a % of overall swings (In Play+Foul+SwStrike), and called strikes as a % of pitches taken (Balls+Called Strikes):

Type	Whiffs/Swings	W/S Rank	Strikes/Take	S/T Rank
CH	40.4%	45	38.6%	153
CU	38.8%	63	26.9%	791
FA	12.3%	745	47.8%	12
FF	5.6%	1001	44.4%	33

It is beyond stunning that Howell's 86ish MPH fastballs, which generate only 12.2% and 5.64% whiffs on swings, are able to sneak across the plate for strikes so frequently while hitters continue to whiff on the off speed stuff at fantastic rates. Choose any superlative you like really to describe Howell's pitch selection and it probably fits. He always manages to stay one step ahead of the hitter (unless his name is Rod Barajas).

H/T: RJ, vivaelpujols, therayspartyleader for their work in breaking down pitch type results.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Closer Dynasty/Keeper Rankings

Ian, yo — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 03:05:47 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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1. Mariano Rivera- Another year older, another year of a sub 2.00 ERA. I do think Mo's age will catch up with him one day, whether it be in the form of injury or inefective-itis, but I don't think that will be 2010. I think Rivera will have another season of 35+ saves and excellent peripherals.

2. Joe Nathan- Had a career high 47 saves and while he had the highest ERA in 4 years, a 2.10, isn't really all that bad. Look for an ERA around 2 with 35+ saves again and a K/9 possibly hovering over 10.

3. Jonathan Papelbon- Numbers close to career averages except a BB/9 of over 3, which is the highest since he'd been put in the closer role. Boston fans seem fed up with him and the Sox have a closer in waiting in Daniel Bard. Don't be surprised to hear Papelbon's name floated in trade rumors.

4. Joakim Soria- Posted the highest K/9 in his career and saved 30 games while missing time in 2009. Expect another season with peripherals hovering in the same area but don't be surprised to see another year with a low save total.

5. David Aardsma- Career highs across the board, including innings pitched. This will be the first time Aardsma has played back to back seasons in the same city, which could help his cause extremely and maybe provide the consistency needed.

6. Brian Fuentes- Had the most saves in baseball in 2009, but had a large drop in K/9 and a spike in whip (1.40 with a career of 1.26) He may get you a high total, but it may not be pretty.

7. Andrew Bailey- Logged 83.1 innings as a rookie so you can definitely see a regression. A regression could be a jump in whip and ERA, but expect the K's to be there.

8. J.P. Howell/Other- The closer situation in Tampa is a bit sketchy, but I don't feel confident with any of the closers left on this list, so Howell gets this by default. Keep in mind that the Rays could go out and get a closer in free agency or trade (hint: Billy Wagner.) If they do, that person would likely be number eight still.

9. Frank Francisco- Spent many weeks on the DL in the 2009 season, and had an ERA floating on the high end of the 3's. Possibly due to the injuries. I'm fine taking a closer on a solid offensive team this late.

10. Bobby Jenks/Matt Thornton/Other- Whispers have been spreading about Kenny Williams sending a letter mentioning his veterans being available in trades and Jenks was fairly disappointing in 2009. Thornton has the stuff to be a nasty closer and 2010 could be the season it happens.

J.P. Howell Put on Ice; Rays Shutdown Defacto Closer

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 13:09:05 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

3 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays pitcher J.P. Howell, right, hugs catcher Greg Zaun after closing out the Baltimore Orioles during the ninth inning of a baseball game Tuesday Aug. 18, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. The Rays won 5-4. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Word came down last night that the Rays have decided games would no longer be chilled. With a little over a week remaining in the 2009 season, the Rays, with good reason, have shut down J.P. Howell. A key to last seasons World Series run, Howell was fantastic for most of the 2009 season and took reigns of the closers role about mid way through the season. For a good portion of the summer, Howell was nearly unhittable. From late-May through early-August, he appeared in 31 games allowing just four earned runs while striking out 40 in 32.1 innings. His opponents his just .153/.248/.234 against him; chilly.

Then Seattle happened and things went bad for the Iceman. I'll spare the women and children the horrible numbers, but over his last 17 appearances things were not good and opponents enjoyed an .881 OPS off of him. Howell said he's taking this as a paid vacation and he should. With nothing left to prove in '09, it's time to get one of the most over used relief arm some rest. Over the course of the last two seasons and ‘08 post season, Howell has thrown 168 innings and 2806 pitches.

I don't know if J.P. will be the Rays closer, but when J.P.'s In, Games will continued to be chilled...hopefully.

One More Crack at Dissecting Bullpen Usage

FreeZorilla — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 16:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

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Last week I took a look at how the Rays' 2009 high leverage FIP of 4.87 underperformed their season FIP of 4.36 while the average team fares 0.25 better (lower) in high leverage situations. I proposed that this was due to inefficient bullpen management. According to The Book by Tom Tango, pitchers should perform to the same ability regardless of situational leverage. Therefore, teams should use their best pitchers when the moment is the most critical.

	Low Lev	Med Lev	HI lev
TBR	4.61	4.1	4.87
AL AVG	4.51	4.52	4.25

If we are to further isolate High Leverage opportunities by the bullpen only we see this:

	OPS	FIP
Bullpen	0.713	4.32
BP Hi Leverage	0.791	5.18

The Rays have basically had a Big 3 in the bullpen this season comprised of J.P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, and Grant Balfour. Based on Tango's study referenced above, these 3 should be receiving the lion's share of high leverage work. Here are their high leverage numbers compared to the bullpen:

	OPS	FIP
BP Hi Leverage	0.791	5.18
Big 3 Hi leverage	0.653	4.07

So when the Big 3 have been called upon they have performed by about 0.25 better according to FIP than the bullpen. Yet, the bullpen overall has been a massive failure in high leverage situations. Is that because there were more high leverage innings than innings of availability for the big 3?

Consider this: 26.3% of batters faced by the bullpen were of the high leverage variety. The Big 3 have accounted for 42% of total bullpen usage. 60.3% of high leverage opportunities have gone to the big 3 which means Big 3 high leverage opportunities account for 16% of the overall bullpen use. So the big 3 account for 42% of total usage of which 16% is high leverage. This leave 2/5's of the high leverage spots to the rest of the cast. This does not seem to be the most efficient use of resources as the Big 3 should be able to sacrifice low and medium leverage opportunities for higher spots.

Another point Tommy Rancel has been all over is Joe Maddon's tendency to over extend a starter into a new inning, only to remove them upon the first runner reaching base. The bullpen's OPS against for 2009 is .713. With runners on base, it rises to .824. Similarly, the starting rotation's performance decreases drastically as the lineup flips over for the fourth time.

	OPS	FIP
Bullpen	0.713	4.32
BP w Runners On	0.824	4.37

	BA	OBP	SLG
1PA	0.250	0.319	0.409
2PA	0.261	0.330	0.415
3PA	0.264	0.325	0.435
4+PA	0.339	0.377	0.600

When a starting pitcher is near 100 pitches as the lineup flips for the fourth time around, the Rays would be well advised to turn it over to their bullpen with the bases empty. The fresh arm should experience greater success without the added pressure of inherited runners.

The last issue to discuss involves frequent pitcher changes once into the bullpen. The average Batters Faced per Relief Appearance in the American League since 2006 is 4.82. In 2009, the Rays are averaging 3.92. The second lowest figure over that period belongs to the 2007 Boston Red Sox at 4.15. Last season with largely the same bullpen the Rays were at 4.55.

The 2009 Rays bullpen is on pace for 507 total appearances or 3.13/gm which since 2006 is second only to the Yankees at 522. Lets take a look at the top 5 bullpens in terms of total appearances since 2006 and compare their Season FIP to that of August. Please note I pro-rated 2009:

Year	Team	Appearances	BF/App	FIPs	FIPa	difference
2007	NYY	522	4.49	4.64	4.69	-0.05
2009	TBR	507	3.92	4.36	5.2	-0.84
2008	BAL	492	4.97	4.74	5.13	-0.39
2007	BAL	490	4.92	4.85	5.37	-0.52
2006	NYY	489	4.63	4.47	4.8	-0.33
					Avg	-0.43
					Avg of All teams	0.04

So the top 5 most worked teams in terms of relief appearances since 2006 all suffered performance drop offs in August while the average change among all teams was a nominal improvement.

Now let's look at the five most taxed bullpens in terms of batters faced:

Year	Team	Batters Faced	BF/App	FIPs	FIPa	diff
2006	KCR	2581	5.46	4.97	5.26	-0.29
2008	TEX	2564	5.6	4.55	4.2	0.35
2007	TEX	2556	5.47	4.24	3.66	0.58
2008	BAL	2443	4.97	4.74	5.13	-0.39
2009	BAL	2,424	5.25	4.42	4.25	0.17
						0.084

This is much more in line with the average among all teams of .04. It seems that fewer bullpen appearances that go longer are less fatiguing over a season than more frequent shorter appearances. Perhaps the Rays have not accounted enough for the effort burned during warming up in the pen.

In summary, I am of the opinion that the Rays season was affected by misuse of the bullpen. The best relievers were not used frequently enough in high leverage situations. Starters were left in too long, often the dreaded fourth time around the order, forcing the pen to habitually come in with runners on base, a scenario in which they proved to be less effective. Finally, the entire bullpen broke down during the homestretch due to excessive turnover causing too many bullpen appearances.

Rays Bullpen Backdraft

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 23:57:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Joe Maddon has blazed a trail from the dugout to the mound as the Maddon March rages on in September.

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A backdraft is a situation which can occur when a fire is starved of oxygen; consequently combustion ceases but the fuel gases and smoke remain at high temperature. If oxygen is re-introduced to the fire, eg. by opening a door to a closed room, combustion can restart often resulting in an explosive effect as the gases heat and expand.

That sort of describes what we've seen lately come the eight and ninth innings of games. Once Joe Maddon opens that bullpen door...boom. The Rays bullpen has been bad lately and that's putting it nicely. The pen has combined for 43 appearances and 26.2 innings of awful baseball this month. Once again, traditional or advanced metrics, it doesn't matter; they tell the same story.

This group of collective relievers has posted an ERA of 7.76 and an FIP of 6.86 in the month of September. We have not seen numbers that bad since the 2007 version of the Rays pen. The key is to not be shortsighted here. While there is no rhyme, reason or no sugar coating for how atrocious they have been recently, it is a small sample size compared to the full season.

If we look at this group's work over the course of the entire season, it should bring a few people back from the ledge. In 2009, the Rays bullpen has an ERA of 3.94 and a FIP of 4.35. Here is how they stack up to the bullpen of the current AL playoff teams...

	Innings	ERA	FIP
Rays	401.2	3.94	4.35
Yankees	445	4.00	4.5
Red Sox	410.1	3.66	4.01
Angels	417.2	4.59	4.41
Tigers	405	4.24	4.44

Overall, things have been pretty good. I don't here calls from any of these teams fans to blow up their bullpens and start from scratch. In fact, out of the five teams above only the Red Sox pen has been better this year. Also take into account that these numbers include the awful September as well as Troy Percival, Joe Nelson, Jeff Bennett and others.

Another thing I wanted to check was inherited runners. It seems that every night we see the same scenario; A Rays starter will be at or near the end of his rope. Maddon sends the starter back out to start the next inning and a runner reaches base. From there Maddon marches to the mound and here we go.

The Rays pen has been above average in terms of inherited runners scoring. The AL average for an inherited runner scoring is 35%. The Rays pen is at 32%. However, the Rays have allowed the second most inherited runners to score (102). How is this possible? Simple, the Rays pen has pitched to over 100 more inherited runners than the league average and faced 79 more inherited runners than the next closest team.

	IR	*IS%*
BAL	228	33
BOS	183	30
CHW	194	38
CLE	223	38
DET	201	34
KCR	236	46
LAA	203	29
MIN	222	36
NYY	219	27
OAK	198	36
SEA	151	31
TBR	315	32
TEX	191	37
TOR	164	37
AVG	209	35

It's pretty amazing when you think about how the pen has been used. A Rays reliever has entered the game with a runner on base 202 times this year. The next closest team is Cleveland with 139. Grant Balfour alone has inherited 63 runners (IS 29%). That is 14 more than the next reliever, who happens to be Randy Choate with 49.

As we head into the offseason there will certainly be turnover as there should. Andrew Friedman and his staff recognize bullpen volatility and are always looking at ways to improve their pen. Names like Percival, Nelson, Shouse, Bradford, Springer and Isringhausen will be gone freeing up space and money for the next crop. However, there is a solid core here that should remain in tact. J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler and Lance Cormier are all under team control. And if we are smart about this and look at the whole season compared to the last two weeks, that's a good foundation.

	Innings	ERA	FIP
Howell	63.2	2.97	3.67
Wheeler	50.2	3.55	4.69
Balfour	60.2	4.9	3.75
Cormier	70.1	3.33	3.86

As was the case last season, if we can move Dan Wheeler and his shinny ERA I wouldn't be opposed to that. However, the other three should be back and probably at a combined $5 million dollars or less. Throw in a Dale Thayer type from within the organization, a LOOGY, and the Rays should once again have a thrifty, yet solid, bullpen.

One of the more annoying things about the upcoming offseason will be all the calls for a proven veteran closer. Look at the market. Do you want to throw money at Fernando Rodney? Jose Valverde? Trevor Hoffman? While I disagree with the notion of paying a reliever $8-10 million dollars (unless he is a true elite reliever), the Rays will have the flexibility to add a medium price ranged reliever (Joaquin Benoit? Kiko Calero?) should they chose to.

We all get frustrated and emotional at times especially during an eight game streak in which every game seems like a repeat of the last. However, sometimes we need to just step back, take a look and realize things could be worse. Afterall, 2007 was just two years ago and that was a whole year of pain not just two weeks.

Wade Davis shines in debut

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 00:08:12 -0000

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In his major league debut, Rays starter Wade Davis pitched seven strong innings of one run ball while striking out nine.

"He really did a wonderful job," Maddon said. "Honestly I didn't know he'd be able to do that. But he did, and he did it in fine fashion. He was really good."

With some definite holes in the rotation for next season, this is the perfect opportunity for the 25 year-old (tomorrow) to put his name into consideration for the spot. Davis was well deserving of the call up after going 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 140 strike outs in 158.2 innings pitched.

Davis was denied the win, however, after relievers Grant Balfour, J.P. Howell, and Russ Springer failed to close out the game. The Florida-native seemed calm and ready, and defintely caught the attention of coaches and executives in Rays organization.

"I felt relaxed," Davis said. "I threw strikes -- that was my biggest goal, just get ahead. I gave my team the chance to win the game."