SB Nation - Carl Crawford

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

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The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

29 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Rosenthal: No Jason Bay? Matt Holliday or Mike Cameron Instead

Randy Booth — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 00:14:22 -0000

Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports writes that if the Red Sox are out on Jason Bay, they'll turn their focus to either Matt Holliday or Mike Cameron. His sources conflict a tad there:

Some rival executives insist free agent Matt Holliday is the Sox's preferred target. Other sources, however, say the Red Sox will shun Holliday in favor of building a more athletic, defensive-oriented club.

Adrian Beltre at third base. Mike Cameron in left field. And perhaps a starting pitcher to further enhance the Red Sox's quest for better run prevention.

[...]

Beltre would appear the logical replacement at third for Mike Lowell, whose trade to the Rangers could become official next week. Cameron, who turns 37 on Jan. 8, would sign a short-term deal, leaving the Red Sox flexible enough to pursue a left fielder in next year's free-agent class, Carl Crawford or even Jayson Werth.

Neither Beltre nor Cameron is Holliday — or, for that matter, Bay. Still, both hit for power, and their overall value to the Red Sox might be greater than Holliday's if one combines their offense, defense and base-running — along with their respective price tags.

Cameron works -- a whole lot better than Matt Holliday, in my opinion.

Cameron would be a perfect player for this "bridge" that Theo Epstein is building and escorting every Red Sox fan over. He's going to be 37 next season, which means the Sox wouldn't give him a contract for any more than two years. If a Ryan Kalish or a Josh Reddick (or even a Ryan Westmoreland if he quickly jumps up the system) is ready by then, it's a perfect transition. Or if Theo tries to sign Carl Crawford next season, it'll still be a good one-year stopgap.

Cameron is a great defender who shouldn't have too many troubles in left field. He also brings a power bat to the Sox's lineup; he's good for at least 25 home runs in Friendly Fenway full time.

The Sox could move Jacoby Ellsbury to left field and play Cameron in center field, but I'm not sure Terry Francona will want to do that to Ellsbury. Perhaps if Ellsbury's defense really is a problem midseason they would make a switch, but I'm not 100 percent sure Ellsbury would be moved if Cameron is signed.

If Bay is out, this is what I want as a Sox fan. Cameron, Ellsbury and J.D. Drew in the outfield would be fantastic (Cameron in center a little better than Ells, but still good). Offensively, Cameron won't hit 36 home runs like Bay, but he's not going to struggle either. Jeremy Hermida will be a solid corner outfield backup as well.

Sign Cameron. Trade Mike Lowell (officially). Sign Adrian Beltre. This is what I want if Bay really is no longer coming back.

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 2, Pick 9.

Ian, yo — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 16:26:35 -0000

More photos » by LM Otero - AP

8 months ago: Texas Rangers Ian Kinsler, left, waves and is met at the dugout by teammate Elvis Andrus, center, and manager Ron Washington after Kinsler's triple during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles in Arlington, Texas, Wednesday, April 15, 2009. Kinsler hit for the cycle. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

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Sorry for the delay guys, I've been swamped and Ray's been pluggin' along with rumors during the Winter Meetings.

Ian Kinsler. 2B, Texas.

My love for power/speed guys is not something I will hide. In his first season playing in more than 130 games, Ian Kinsler posted a 31/31 HR/SB line, while hitting only .253. Kinsler had a bit of an unlucky season with a BABIP of .245 when his career is .293, so one can expect an improvement with his batting average in 2010. The fact that Kinsler's average was pretty bad makes him an undervalued player coming into the 2010 season.

In 2009, Kinsler was probably draft near the back end of the second round and that was coming off an injury plagued season where he hit .319. If Kinsler does in fact improve his BABIP, he could be a steal at the end of the second round, when you'll be getting someone like Carl Crawford who does not have the power or 5 category ability that Kinsler does. Not that Crawford is overrated, I'm just saying, I'd like getting a guy who can nearly produce in five categories at a premium position over a pure speed outfielder. .

The Red Sox's 2010 Season May Be Over Before It Starts

Randy Booth — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:05:13 -0000

Red Sox fans, I'm going to tell you something that you might not want to hear. You might cringe at what I'm telling you. But it's something everyone has to hear and, perhaps, has to accept:

The Red Sox's 2010 season might already be a lost cause.

Yeah. I'm serious.

Marc Normandin, a Baseball Prospectus writer and former ringleader of the Beyond The Boxscore cult, was scratching his head about all the reports regarding the Red Sox recently. Why are they going after Jason Bay? Why aren't they going after Matt Holliday?

And then it all came to him:

The Sox front office also seems more optimistic about the 2011 market than the 2010 one, for a few reasons. The ones they discuss specifically are the fact that David Ortiz and Lowell will be free agents, so they can get their contracts off of the books, opening up their budget and some roster spots. This also screams that they are in the market for a new designated hitter and third baseman, but will wait until their current ones take their leave.

[...]

Why would they do this? Why would they sign someone who is so obviously not fit for the position, especially as he ages and becomes more expensive? The answer may lie in that 2011 market, as left fielder Carl Crawford will be a free agent (assuming the Rays don’t lock him up to a deal, and they may let him walk due to their own prospects and budget). The Sox may be looking to sign Bay long-term, not as their future left fielder, but as their present left fielder and future DH. Having a bat like Bay’s at DH would allow them to shore up their defense, which would in turn improve their pitching, which would improve their record…see where I’m going with this? They would be squeezing runs and wins out of everywhere they can in order to keep up with New York this way.

You know? I think he may just be on to something.

Of course, the biggest hitch of them all is if Carl Crawford is actually available come next winter. If the Rays are smart -- and we know they can't be all that dumb -- they're going to try their hardest to bring Crawford back. Crawford, who has been in Tampa Bay since his big league career started in 2002, can pretty much do everything you want out of a baseball player. His defense, though, may be his biggest asset -- at least for the Sox.

Crawford's +17.5 UZR/150 last season in left for the Rays was seventh best in baseball. No, not seventh best for left fielders, but seventh best UZR/150 for all fielders. He was the highest-ranked left fielder and second-ranked outfielder (Franklin Gutierrez - 27.1 - is just straight filth). There's no doubt his success could translate well to Fenway Park and playing The Monster.

Another key to this scenario is the Red Sox not bringing back Mike Lowell. Which is likely. Actually, it's not likely at all if he is traded to the Texas Rangers soon -- which is a rumor. I'm not really buying the rumor right now, but at least it's being discussed (if he is traded, Adrian Beltre would be a Red Sox faster than you can say "Beltre throwing from his knees from short left field ... OUT!").

The downside to waiting until 2011 is that there's not a huge market for good third basemen. Anybody want Eric Chavez? Just kidding. If Beltre were to be available next year, we could have a nice match on our hands, but that is unlikely.

One more thing worth pointing out: Joe Mauer is a free agent in 2011. As long as the Twins don't extend his contract, he will be the No. 1 free agent on the market. If the Sox were to try and nab Mauer (Victor Martinez's current contract expires at the end of the season), it'd be a pretty penny to pay for both Mauer and Crawford. The Sox could have the money for both, but would they really want to shell out that kind of cash?

What say you, Sox fans? Is it worth it for the Red Sox to save money, resources and prospects in 2010 and just aim for the sky in 2011? Or do you think the Sox can stay competitive and try to win every season? Do you buy any of this at all? Is Theo just holding his cards close to his chest?

Whatever the future holds, it's going to bright ... at some point. But that point may not be 2010.

Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 8th: Carl Crawford for Carlos Quentin Swap Discussed, Brian Shouse Rejects Arbitration, Rays Offered Bobby Abreu Two Years, Interest in Matt Capps, and More

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:49:20 -0000

Carl Crawford

This one was posted in the previous thread, but for those who missed it:

Sources with Tampa Bay and the Sox said the sides had talked several times this offseason, not only checking out closer Bobby Jenks and his availability in a deal, but more specifically a trade that would have sent Carlos Quentin to the Rays for Carl Crawford.

The author also quotes White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen on such rumors, who says:

''A lot of people know what the White Sox need because Kenny talks to so many teams,'' Guillen said. ''Obviously, we need a leadoff hitter, left fielder, we're looking for that. But right now Carlos is prepared to have a pretty good year. The last 10 games of the season, he was the Carlos we expected.

Not to let the proverbial cat out of the bag, but Jenks fits the a similar profile of Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Capps. Each is an end-game reliever coming off a rocky season with longball issues. Salary issues are probably going to prevent Jenks from ever donning a Rays cap, he's due at least $5.6M next season.

Brian Shouse

Good news here. Shouse declined arbitration, which means if/when he signs with another team, the Rays will receive an additional draft choice.

Milton Bradley/Pat Burrell

Nothing's changed. Here's the latest Sun Times piece to prove it.

Matt Lindstrom

A quick update on everybody's favorite Marlin reliever nowadays:

The Texas Rangers and, to a lesser degree, the Tampa Bay Rays are among teams inquiring about the Marlins' hard-throwing right-hander — even though Lindstrom had an inconsistent season.

Bobby Abreu

USA Today has a somewhat interesting note about the contract offer the Rays made last year to Abreu:

Two years ago, the Yankees gave Jorge Posada, a catcher who had turned 36 on Aug. 17, a four-year, $52 million contract. A year later, they let outfielder Bobby Abreu, then 34, walk away after he posted at least 100 RBI for the sixth season in a row.

Abreu spent most of the winter waiting for a big payday. There were plenty of offers, with 10 teams expressing interest, agent Peter Greenberg says, yet only the Tampa Bay Rays offered more than a one-year deal.

The Rays also offered more money than he wound up signing for.

Matt Capps

From the Post-Gazette:

Two sources confirmed yesterday that the Pirates have threatened to non-tender Capps, although that tends to be a negotiating tactic.

[...]

Several teams have asked the Pirates about Capps, including the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays.

Such a move would seemingly lower Capps value, but maybe Neal Huntington knows something I don't.

---

More to come.

A Brief Primer on the Rays Off-Season to Date and a Look Forward to the Winter Meetings

R.J. Anderson — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:54:22 -0000

The Winter Meetings start tomorrow. Any murmur or misunderstood comment will be amplified and some press members will be used as pawns. Disinformation is going to spread like wildfire. This makes the event more alluring as a spectator sport, but keep in mind 90% of what is talked about will never come to fruition. Now, completely ignoring that, this is the day one open thread. Ideally most of the rumors and discussion will stick to this thread until a recap thread is posted (expect that in the evening) barring something actually occurring or a rumor passing the smell test with flying colors.

This thread is going up about 20 hours early because tomorrow we'll have a very special interview with James Click -- the Rays chief of quantitative analysis and former Baseball Prospectus deity - which should provide entertainment for those willing to accept anything less than rumors in the early AM.

Moving on, let's review the Rays off-season to date in a brief and concise manner which means links.

Transactions

Rays re-sign Gabe Kapler

Akinori Iwamura for Jesse Chavez

Player to be named later for Kelly Shoppach

R.J. Swindle signs minor league deal

Joe Bateman signs minor league deal

Gregg Zaun signs with Milwaukee

Ramon Ramirez is claimed on waivers...

And then released

Milton Bradley

The Burrell-Bradley swap

The clubhouse cancer theory

Rumors and general interest posts

Rays interested in Ivan Rodriguez?

Pirates make Reid Brignac main target?

Why Billy Wagner made no sense for the Rays

Three rules about acquiring relievers

The Rays and the win curve

Kiko Calero

Brendan Donnelly

Kelvim Escobar

Joaquin Benoit

Carl Crawford extension talk

Interviews with Rays personnel

Andrew Friedman

Matt Arnold

Chaim Bloom

Remember that you can also follow the latest Rays rumors, news, and tidbits on Twitter by adding @draysbay, @trancel, @ehahmann, or @freezorilla.

One more note: please, please, post the source of the rumor. And generally speaking, the MLBTR comments section or a random message board post won't pass the smell test.

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 2, Pick 8

raygu — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 21:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Carl Crawford, right, is tagged out trying to steal second by Texas Rangers second baseman Ian Kinsler, left, in the first inning of a baseball game, Friday Sept. 25, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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The time has come to draft some starting pit.....nonono...speed. The choice here would be very easy had Jose Reyes shown he was healthy at the end of the season. Then again, he probably would have been selected by now. So I am going to draft Rays outfielder Carl Crawford.

In his 7 seasons with the Rays, Crawford has average 50+ SBs per season, and he stole 60 bases in 2009- a career high. In addition to the 60 SBs, Crawford chipped in with 15 HRs, 68 RBI and 96 runs scored. He also hot .305-.364-.452-.812 for the season.

Crawford will be a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, so he should put together another fine season in his walk year. The free agent class of 2011 is stocked, so Crawford will be looking to top his 2009 season.

Can he go 20-80-70 in 2010??

Poll

Can Carl Crawford go 20-80-70 in 2010?

Yes, he will be playing for a big contract.

21 votes

No, he doesn't have that kind of power.

22 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 2, Pick 2

raygu — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:00:20 -0000

by Danny Moloshok - AP

3 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Justin Upton, right, comes into the dugout after scoring after Augie Ojeda was walked by Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher James McDonald with the bases loaded during the 10th inning of a baseball game, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009, in Los Angeles. The Diamondbacks won 5-3. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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This was not an easy pick for me, as I considered Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira and Mark Reynolds, but I couldn't get away from the upside of J-Up-Justin Upton.

Upton went 26-86-20-.300-..366-.532-.899 in 2009 while watching his K% drop from 34% in 2008 to 26% in 2009. His HR/FB% increased from 15.3% in 2008 to 18.8% in 2009 which coincided with a drop in his FB% from 41.9% in 2008 to 35.7% in 2009. Upton also increased his ISO, or isolated power, from .213 in 2008 to .232 in 2009. Should he be able to maintain his HR/FB% while increasing his FB%, he could easily hit 30 HRs in 2010. I think he can do better than that actually.

Upton not only provided fantasy owners with solid power, but he also contributed 20 SBs in 2009 after stealing only 1 bag in 2008. I think the speed is here to stay as the Diamondbacks struggled to score runs in 2009, and I think that trend continues in 2010. I expect Upton to steal between 20-25 bags in 2010.

Upton is capable of a 30-100-20-.300 season in 2010, and should be drafted accordingly.