SB Nation - Rocco Baldelli

Who Can Be Minnesota's Fourth Outfielder?

Jesse — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 02:12:49 -0000

It's been a slow couple of weeks for baseball fans in Twins Territory, as we wait for news of a third baseman sighting or maybe a Joe Mauer extension. But this is something of an under-rated question for the off-season check list: who will the Twins have as their fourth outfielder in 2010?

I'm already assuming that, left to right, Ron Gardenhire's outfield will be Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer. You could jot Jason Kubel down as the fourth outfielder, but I'm happy to pencil him in as simply "DH". Right now there is no obvious answer for that fourth guy because there's nobody left to backup Denard in center field.

Corey Patterson

Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 5-9

Weight: 175

Born: Aug 13, 1979

Remember this guy? He had a couple of decent offensive seasons with the Cubs a few years back but his value was in his defense. In 2004 he was one of the best center fielders around (33.8 UZR/150), and even outside of that season he was always a guy who fielded his position very well. It seems he should be a lot older considering how long he's been playing, but the guy just turned 30.

Patterson wouldn't have been a bad option, if he hadn't already signed a minor league contract with the Mariners. So who else fits the bill?

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Coco Crisp	49	180	30	41	8	5	3	14	29	23	13	2	.228	.336	.378

Crisp is just 30 as well, and managed to perform a pretty solid disappearing act in Kansas City last year. He's played a lot of outfield over the years, and in general he's done it well. Like Patterson he's not really a threat with the bat in his hands, and he hasn't been able to duplicate the success of his 2005 breakout season, but his value is in his glove and his ability to backup a position that nobody on the major league roster could do for the Twins. At least, nobody that you'd want out there for any kind of an extended period of time.

Unfortunately it looks like Crisp will be off the market shortly, as the Athletics have been tied to him over the last few days.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Rocco Baldelli	62	150	23	38	4	1	7	23	11	37	1	0	.253	.311	.433

Baldelli just turned 28 at the end of the season, and again it's hard to believe after all he's been through. He's lucky to still be playing the game after his medical condition was mid-diagnosed, and he's a long time removed from finishing 3rd in rookie of the year voting (2003) and from his last solid offensive season (2006). In spite of those red flags there is some upside with Baldelli; he's younger than most of the guys on this list, he's versatile and he's likely to come at a bargain rate.

I like Baldelli. If only so I can cheer for a guy called Rocko (hey, no more Boof). But clearly there's got to be a guy out there who doesn't have that kind of a rap sheet on health.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Scott Podsednik	132	537	75	163	25	6	7	48	39	74	30	13	.304	.353	.412

Pods is coming off one of his best seasons at the dish, and in spite of turning 34 in March is probably one of the best free agent players of the profile we're looking for. That career .340 OBP isn't great, but there's a lot worse around. Traditionally his defense isn't a good as most of the guys on this list, but he has two things that play in his favor: he played all three outfield positions in 2009, and he's very fast. Anytime you can close a gap, that's a good thing. And like John Madden used to say, you can't teach speed. Actually he probably still says that.

Podsednik is not a starter. But he does have value as a fourth outfielder, and I think you could do a lot worse.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Endy Chavez	54	161	17	44	3	1	2	13	14	22	9	1	.273	.328	.342

Chavez turns 32 in February and, in spite of being a decent contact hitter, doesn't have a lot of value at the plate. He does have good speed, but (and you might be picking up on a trend here) his value lies in his defense. Over the course of his career he's logged hundreds of innings at all three outfield positions and, as a general rule, he's played all three at a high level.

Obviously because of his offense (career 75 OPS+) this isn't a guy you want to expose a great deal at the plate. Also, there should be some concern over how his knee is after tearing his ACL last June. But as far as defensive options on this list go, Chavez might be the best one.

Joey Gathright

Boston Red Sox

Height: 5-10

Weight: 185

Born: Apr 27, 1982

Gathright is one of those guys who has some good tools, and either hasn't learned how to use them or they just aren't as good as we were told they were. He had a great year in part time with the Royals in 2007, but in general has been underwhelming in terms of performance. But again, he's quick and he plays all three outfield positions. He's good at stealing bases.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Randy Winn	149	538	65	141	33	5	2	51	47	93	16	2	.262	.318	.353

This is a popular guy, and I don't really expect him to sign with a team that won't start him everyday, but at this point in his career I have to wonder if he's at a crossroads. He'll turn 36 in June and, although he put up good offensive numbers for the Giants in '07 and '08, he's clearly not the player he was in his prime.

Winn can play all three outfield positions, and if he's looking to sign with a team with a legitimate chance for October, if he's looking to sign with a good team for a lesser role to get that shot at a ring, then maybe this is something he considers. If the price is right, Winn would be my choice of anyone on this list.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

Then there's the internal option. Pridie is younger than anyone on this list, just turning 26 in August. He can backup Denard in center field, he has a little pop in his bat, and I have to believe he'll be playing with something to prove. But he strikes out way too much at the minor league level, is allergic to getting on base, and has no major league track record to show what he can bring to a club with any certainty.

Would you sign any of these guys? How much of a concern is a fourth outfielder to you at this point?

Top Moments '09: No. 8 - Papelbon's Payback

ltrain2 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

by Michael Dwyer - AP

Jonathan Papelbon, who thanks to OTM's memorable moment #8, is the Boston Red Sox's all-time saves leader.

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OTM COVERAGE: Randy Booth's recap of the Red Sox's memorable moment #8 of 2009

GAME RECAP: 07/01/2009 - Baltimore Orioles 5 Boston Red Sox 6 (11 innings)

Less than 24 hours after the Baltimore Orioles had completed the greatest comeback in the history of their franchise at the hands of the Red Sox, coming from 10 runs behind using just their final six outs, Boston got themselves a little redemption in a similar fashion.

Just one game prior to the events that led to OTM's #8 moment of 2009, the Orioles staged a 10-run comeback stunning the visiting Red Sox at Camden Yards, leaving closer Jonathan Papelbon still searching that elusive save that would leave him alone atop the franchise's list of career saves leaders.

Watching this game, I remember for a short-period of time almost rooting for the Orioles as they closed the once insurmountable gap, impatient and excited about the opportunity to see Papelbon become the Red Sox's all-time saves leader. After the game, I felt guilty, regretful, and somewhat responsible for what had transpired. Needless to say, the game for which this article is based on was a relief for not only Papelbon and the rest of the Red Sox, but myself as well.

The Red Sox had to enter the game with a little bit of a hangover-effect, and despite having their ace Josh Beckett slated to start, the first inning seemed to be a continuation of the last few innings from the nightmare that occurred the night before. After the Sox left Dustin Pedroia stranded in the top half, lead-off man Brian Roberts did his job by drawing a walk and advancing into scoring position via a theft of second base, ultimately scoring on a Felix Pie RBI-single. 1-0 Orioles after one (sigh, I thought we were playing Baltimore?).

Inning number two was accompanied by more anguish, in both halves of the frame. In the top, the Red Sox were again victimized by a struggling offense and added another zero to the scoreboard. Luke Scott wasted no time in adding to the lead starting off the bottom of the second, blasting the first pitch that he was offered from Josh Beckett over the center field wall to make it 2-0 in favor of Baltimore.

Boston would finally get on the board in the third, albiet adding just one run, only to continue the trend that was evident to this point. 'Anything you can do, we can do better,' seemed to be the home club's motto in the beginning of this particular contest. And that they did scoring two runs in response to Boston's one by way of a Nick Markakis 2-RBI double. 4-1 now, Orioles continuing their domination.

Baltimore would add yet another run in the following inning, making it four straight frames in which Beckett surrendered at least one run, and bringing the two teams to the 5-1 score that would remain until the 9th.

The top of the ninth began with the Orioles' decision to remove Bergesen (8 inngings, 1 run, 6 strikeouts, 0 walks, and only two base-runners advancing past first base) in favor of reliever Jim Johnson. This is where everything started to go wrong, or right depending on where your allegiance lies in relation to these two teams.

Johnson proceded to walk Dustin Pedroia, serve up a 2-1 fastball that Kevin Youkilis sent into the seats, then take a walk to the dugout giving way to George Sherrill. Sherrill started off in a positive way, striking out David Ortizfor the first out, but that's about where his success ended in this outing. Ellsbury singled with one out, Bailey and Varitek both drew walks, and with the bases loaded pinch-hitter Rocco Baldelli plated two with a single knotting the score up at 5-5. After walking Drew, Johnson exited much to the appreciation of Orioles fan everywhere, and new pitcher Danny Baez got Pedroia to foul out ending the inning.

After a rather uneventful following inning and a half, the Red Sox offense struck again in the 11th. Ellsbury led off the inning with a double, subsequently moving to third on a Bailey sacrifice fly. In steps defensive wiz and always potent offensive threat Julio Lugo. Sure, maybe a little too much credit awarded in the previous sentence (or a lot depending on how strong your grip on reality is), but during this particular at-bat you wouldn't know it. Lugo shocked the world, mainly the fans who watched him play with the Red Sox on a regular basis, by coming through with what would eventually become the game-winning RBI single.

Lugo's hit in the top half of the inning set the stage for Papelbon's most notable save to this point in his career, number 133, surpassing former Red Sox saves leader Bob Stanley.

Papelbon and the rest of the relievers involved in this game were the biggest reason that Boston was able to come back and get the victory (sorry, Julio). After Beckett turned in a sub-par outing, the first four frames in particular, Red Sox's pitchers retired the game's final 24 hitters to give the offense a chance to complete the epic comeback.

All-in-all, this game was memorable for several reasons. One, Boston completed an impressive come from behind victory, made even more notable by the previous night's events. Also, the 24 straight retired by the Boston pitching staff to end the game was astonishing to watch. But most of all, this game's significance lies with Jonathan Papelbon and his place in the Red Sox's record books.

Poll

What will you remember most regarding OTM's memorable moment #8 from the 2009 season?

Dissecting the Red Sox Roster: Batters

Ben Buchanan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:32:20 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

This man swings a big bat. A very, very big bat. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

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Well, this took me a little longer than I expected, but oh well. Continuing in the player-by-player breakdown of who we had in 2009 and what they are to the team in 2010, I give you the batters.

Brian Anderson: Let's start things off easy, shall we? Brian Anderson really brought nothing to this team in 2009. Sure, he had that one really good game against Cleveland when nothing mattered, and his 1.028 OPS is pretty to look at if you ignore how many ABs it took. But he's not a major league player. If he's willing to be stuffed back in the minor leagues, maybe he comes back as very mediocre insurance. But if not, the Sox should have no qualms with dumping the failed prospect.

Rocco Baldelli: Rocco wasn't all that bad as far as a bench bat is concerned. He had a very low OBP, but brought a little pop to the lineup when he was slotted in and finished with a mid-700s OPS. He even played a good center field in limited innings, if his UZR came in below average in the outfield over the year. Ultimately, though, Rocco does not bring any solid reliability to the bench. He's got obvious injury risks, and if you can't rely on a guy to come off the bench and give you a solid AB regardless of how often he plays is not necessarily the guy you want. Unless his price is very low, I expect the Sox will let him walk in favor of someone more reliable.

Jason Bay: Now here's where things get interesting. Let's look at the facts: Jason Bay was a fantastic offensive producer for the Red Sox. He lead American League outfielders in numerous offensive statistics, and was a great middle-of-the-order guy every month but July. Now, it's tempting to just say "sign him"—and I think the Red Sox ultimately will. But I'm not sure that's going to be a good idea. For a team where the goal has long been to exploit the unexploited market and avoid overpaying based on name and hype, Jason Bay seems like exactly the wrong sort of signing: a guy with big numbers where people often look (RBI, HR, and yes, OBP, SLG, and wOBA) but crap numbers where they do not (UZR). If Bay wants to sign with us, he'd better understand that he will have to DH when we ask him to DH.

J.D. Drew: Seriously, for those of you Drew-haters—and I know a few still linger—ask yourselves if you're not a bit too caught up in his 2007 numbers. Last year he was a top-10 outfielder by wOBA, top-3 by OPS. And unlike his similarly offensively gifted outfielder Jason Bay, Drew is a very solid defensive outfielder as well, worth 9.7 runs above replacement, good for 6^th amongst major league right fielders. Is he costly? Yes, but he's a ridiculously good player and worth every penny in '08 and '09. I'm not saying we should resign him after his contract runs out in 2 years, but until then he's an integral part of this team that's probably being underutilized batting 8^th every other game.

Jacoby Ellsbury: There's not a lot left to be said about Jacoby Ellsbury that hasn't already been said here. A seemingly great defensive outfielder due to speed and the occasional flashy dive or leap, Ellsbury's abilities do not hold up well under scrutiny. Bad jumps and poor routes lead him to being one of the worst defensive center fielders by UZR, and offensively the problems are the same as usual: OBP, OBP, OBP. As a leadoff hitter, that number should be higher than it is, though he's made improvements, it's questionable whether that's due to improving skills or a higher BABIP this year. The K% and BB% are moving slowly in the right direction, but to stay in CF he's going to have to improve his defense, and if he wants to make it in left, he's going to need to improve his bat way more than he has so far.

Joey Gathright: He's a good guy to have in the system, but he's not one you want for the long haul. He's not got a bat to be worth a spot on the bench except when you're in the postseason and can expect to be playing your starters every single game and might just need that one key SB. Otherwise, hes' a roster spot best used on a solid all-around player.

Alex Gonzalez: There's gotta be a little bit of emotion involved in the decision making process for those who want to bring the more diminutive A-Gon back. The Red Sox hadn't had a guy let them feel safe on a ball hit to the SS hole for a while, and Gonzalez gave them that for a short time. Add in a few clutch hits, a surprising number of homers, and replacing a combination of Julio Lugo, Nick Green, and Brian Woodward and I'm surprised we haven't had statues going up left and right. But looking at Gonzo's case rationally, he's not at all worth the $6 million option on his contract, and he's probably not a great player to keep on. First off, even his .316 OBP this year with the Sox was very nearly a career high. He is, undoubtedly, a black hole in the lineup. And in the field, while he's good, he's not great and he's not likely to get any better as he gets older. This guy is not a solution to the long-term problem, he is a short-term stopgap who kept Sox fans from tearing out their hair. In his short time with the Sox, Jed Lowrie has shown no signs of driving Sox fans insane with fielding errors, and has the potential to swing a big bat. Pair him with another possible solution (*cough*JJ Hardy*cough*) and see who emerges.

Nick Green: As fun as it was to watch Nick Green go on his early-season hot streak and show remarkable range at short, he's unlikely to reproduce either next year, and so is probably minor-league depth at best for this team.

Casey Kotchman: Another player who just doesn't have a great future with the Sox. There's likely at least one team in the league likely to give him a starting job at first, and he never seemed to get his bat going even to his usual levels as a bench player. While he's got a great glove at first, that's just not the greatest use of a bench spot, especially if we can employ a late-inning defensive unit with Jed at 3^rd, Youk at 1^st, and hopefully a good defensive backup/platoon SS. Send him on his way and see if we can't get some value for him.

George Kottaras: Bad bat, mediocre defensive catcher, and with Mark Wagner throwing out guys left and right and flashing a bat again, he may well have missed his window with the Sox. Sorry, Kott.

Mike Lowell: To say Mike has been disappointing since signing his contract in the 2007-2008 offseason would probably be an understatement. .274/.338/.461 and .290/.337/.474 are not lines worth $12 million, especially not when paired with defense befitting a cripple. However, there's reason to be encouraged. Even with limited starts, Lowell put up pretty good numbers in July and August before disappearing in September, and started to show signs of being the old defensive Lowell as the season came to a close. The ability to be the old Mike Lowell is still there, and hopefully with more consistent playing time (with Martinez taking over at catcher, Youk will be staying at first a lot more) and a healed hip, Mike could flash us some of the old magic in what will almost certainly be his last year with the Red Sox.

Jed Lowrie: If the wrist is healthy, he should be our starting shortstop. The defense is there, the offense should by all accounts be there with a well-repaired wrist—there's no evidence of significant discrepancies in his L/R splits in the minors. I still think he's our shortstop of the future.

Victor Martinez: I'll admit that I got this guy wrong. He came into Fenway and produced. But that doesn't change that he's not an impressive defensive catcher, which is the position he's going to have to fill more often than not next year. Hopefully, his position splits fall more in line with his pre-'09 numbers instead of his clearly first base heavy ones from last year. Otherwise, while he won't be Varitek bad, the upgrade isn't going to be as big as we expect.

David Ortiz: Perhaps the biggest single question mark on the Red Sox going into 2010 is Big Papi. Obviously, he is on the decline. Obviously, he's not due for a big contract in 2011 if any at all. And obviously, so long as he doesn't somehow find his way into pin stripes, he's due to go down as one of the all-time Sox if only for his contributions in '07 and especially '04. But next year anything could happen. While Ortiz ended the season with an OPS of .794, he put up a 1.062 OPS in June, .845 in July, .825 in August, and .947 in September. But when that's being so strongly offset by the slow starts he's had for the last few years, it's hard to justify keeping him consistently at DH. Papi needs to figure out what it is that's making him start slow (not exactly the sign of an aging guy who would tend to break down over the course of the season) over the offseason, and FIX IT. More prep, less prep, I don't know, but if he fixes it, the Sox could pull a huge weapon out of nowhere.

Or he could just continue to disappear.

Dustin Pedroia: Not much to this one. He's our guy at second base for the foreseeable future. Huge defense, great on base capabilities, and with the ability to show a little sneaky pop. After putting up an MVP season in 2008, Pedroia seemed to regress a little in 2009, but I wouldn't expect that to continue at all. In fact, I'd expect him to get better in a lot of ways. After BABIPs of .334 and .336 in '07 and '08, Petey posted a .300 in '09. He had a little bit of a GB/FB shift, and maybe swung for the fences a bit too much when he had only a couple dingers midway through the year. If Petey can get back to playing his game, he could easily jump back over the .850 OPS mark.

Jason Varitek: As much as I love the captain for all he's done, it's time to call it quits. Tek is not currently worth a roster spot. He doesn't have the offense to be a full-time catcher, or the defense to be a backup. Plus his presence will likely just make it harder to get the pitchers in synch with Martinez and whoever ends up backing him up next season. If he insists on picking up the player's option, pay him his 3 million and cut him loose. I hope he ends up as a coach with us someday, but there's just no justification to waste a spot on him.

Chris Woodward: A guy with no redeeming qualities. Awful defense, awful offense...Don't even stick him in Pawtucket, just cut him.

Kevin Youkilis: After the dramatic improvement between '07 and '08, Sox fans would've been completely justified in wondering if this late-blooming Youk was for real. .843 OPS is acceptable at 3^rd, or 1^st with great defense. .959 OPS with great defense at the corners? That's MVP stuff. .312/.390/.569 became .305/.413/.548, and Sox fans were reassured. Kevin Youkilis is THE middle-of-the-lineup guy for the Red Sox. He may not his tons of homers, but he's going to produce. Youk's extension was clearly a good buy now.

By the way, did anyone else realize he had 7 steals last year? Go figure. Nice little tidbit to end the article on.

Playoff Teams Defense Analysis - How They Got There and What to Expect - American League Edition

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:32:12 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels center fielder Gary Matthews Jr. catches a fly ball in front of a mural honoring Los Angeles Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart, Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2009, during practice in preparation for the team's upcoming playoff baseball game in Anaheim, Calif. Adenhart died in a car accident last April. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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A couple days ago I publish the look at the defensive stats of the teams that made the playoffs in the National League. Now it is time for the American League. For this analysis, I will be using UZR data from from Fangraphs.com. I computed the numbers a few days ago and waited for the season to end. Fangraphs updates their numbers on Monday so these UZR are not from this Monday but the Monday before that.

First, here are the totals of all the AL teams in the playoffs:

As it can be seen, the Angel's defense this season was the best of the four teams with them saving about 30 more runs than the Yankees and Red Sox and about 45 more runs than the Twins.

Besides the team totals, the UZR can be broken down to individual positions. Here is a comparison of each of the 4 teams by position totals.

None of these team were great in the field and shows by the variations from position to position.

Even though these graphs show how a team did during the season, it doesn't show what to except in the post season. For example, the Angels missed Tori Hunter for a while due to injury and the players that replaced him might explain the low ranking in CF for the Angels (actually Tori had a pretty bad year in CF). For each team, I went ahead and calculated the true UZR value of each player projected to start in the playoffs.

For those that need to know, it was a 5-4-3-2 weighted average of seasonally regressed values to 125 games with no final age adjustment. For example, Derek Jeter had a 6.4 UZR for 2009, but taking into account his previous seasons his true talent level is near -1.7 UZR.

So here is a look at each team's 2009 numbers and the true talent level of the players expected to play during the post season (I will add more as needed - when injuries happen or if I happened to miss someone).

Minnesota Twins (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Justin Morneau	0.67
1B	Michael Cuddyer	-0.13
2B	Nick Punto	0.81
2B	Alexi Casilla	-2.73
3B	Matt Tolbert	-0.03
3B	Joe Crede	7.44
3B	Brendan Harris	-1.2
SS	Nick Punto	2.59
SS	Orlando Cabrera	-0.11
LF	Delmon Young	-10.2
LF	Denard Span	2.12
CF	Carlos Gomez	7.6
CF	Denard Span	-0.72
RF	Jason Kubel	-1.39
RF	Michael Cuddyer	-7
RF	Denard Span	1.82

LA Angels (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Kendry Morales	3.0
2B	Howie Kendrick	1.8
2B	Maicer Izturis	1.5
3B	Chone Figgins	6.6
SS	Erick Aybar	3.7
SS	Maicer Izturis	1.0
LF	Juan Rivera	5.9
CF	Gary Matthews Jr.	-5.4
CF	Torii Hunter	-6.0
RF	Bobby Abreu	-11.3
RF	Gary Matthews Jr.	-1.0

New York Yankees (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Mark Teixeira	1.5
2B	Robinson Cano	-1.9
3B	Alex Rodriguez	-3.7
SS	Derek Jeter	-1.7
LF	Johnny Damon	-2.4
CF	Melky Cabrera	-1.5
CF	Brett Gardner	3.2
RF	Nick Swisher	2.1
RF	Eric Hinske	0.6
RF	Melky Cabrera	-0.3

Boston Red Sox (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Victor Martinez	-0.1
1B	Kevin Youkilis	3.2
1B	Casey Kotchman	4.5
2B	Dustin Pedroia	6.9
3B	Mike Lowell	2.3
3B	Kevin Youkilis	-0.1
SS	Alex Gonzalez	4.5
SS	Nick Green	-2.0
SS	Jed Lowrie	4.2
LF	Jason Bay	-9.6
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	-6.7
RF	Rocco Baldelli	-0.6
RF	J.D. Drew	4.6

--------------------------------------------------------------------

First, thanks to Justin for supplying the graphics and let me know if any players might be seeing playing time in the first 2 rounds. I am not going to go through all possible lineups once the DH is added and removed in the World Series until two teams qualify.

The (Not so) Big Bossman (Jr.): Graph of the Day

Walter Fulbright — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 07:32:16 -0000

In 2007 and 2008, Upton posted wOBA’s of .387 and .354, respectively. This year, that mark has plummeted to just .298. Among batters taking at least 500 trips to the plate, Upton has the fourth-worst wOBA in the game. Only light-swinging middle infielders Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein and Orlando Cabrera have provided less value with the lumber. Per Batting Runs (a park-adjusted measure of offensive production), Upton has gone from +27.2 runs above average in 2007 and +15.3 in ‘08 to a wheezing -13.2 in 2009.

"What's with B.J. Upton?" Fangraphs, Sep. 20, 2009

I'm really not sure if any of you heard about this, but B.J. Upton hit for the cycle. It was the first cycle in all forty-four minutes of the Rays history.

Let's quickly break down said history. The first act of their history was a team with a mission ... to make the best expansion draft selection in Major League history (some guy named Bobby Abreu), and then to immediately trade him to the Phillies for practically nothing.

The second involved, of course, the Hit Parade (McGriff, Canseco, Castilla, and Vaughn), who were roughly a combined 250 years old, giving up Randy Winn in a trade for the right to negotiate with a manager (Lou Piniella, of course, in probably the single worst trade of the last 50 years that didn't involve simply cash), and that thrilling 4th place finish (one of two times they didn't finish last, the other being 2008).

Then of course, the music swells, and the underdog begins to turn it around, starting with the fleecing of the Mets in the Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir trade. It's easy to keep track of what act you're in - just look for a corresponding uniform / team nickname change. Of course, it culminated with the emergence of the stars of their show: Carl Crawford, the aforementioned Kazmir, the tragic hero Rocco Baldelli, the renegade executive Stuart Sternberg, and the two kids who were sure to follow and set the world on fire: Delmon Young (the talented but unfocused hothead), and B.J. Upton. They figured the nucleus of talent would help them compete. It did. And B.J. was a star.

Has it really only been a year since B.J. found his place among the best centerfielders in the league? Does it feel like he's 30 to anyone else? Just how badly have those combination ankle / shoulder injuries slowed him down? Were the home runs two seasons ago and the Beltan impression in last year's playoffs a fluke?

In order: Yes, Your call, A lot, and To some degree. The ankle issue is interesting. The baserunning DVC score is way down from last year (when he would have been a 71), but the fielding score is almost exactly the same, both in percentile rank and UZR (10.3 to 10.5). The shoulder is probably telling us the real difficulty at the plate (despite a weird increase in LD%). And the decreased walk percentage on a team that doesn't preach aggression at the plate is probably a sign of a known hole (or abyss) in his current swing that is covering a good deal of the strike zone. As little fun as it is to say this - we're going to have to wait until 2010 to know for sure. But players don't usually show non speed related skills before the age of 27 that magically disappear in their mid 20s (non Mark Teahen division).

One thing, no actually two things are for certain: The cycle is still a silly and arbitrary way of allocating praise. And 2009, injury-free or not, will more likely be remembered as the year that B.J.'s younger brother Justin Upton surpassed him. And likely their two places will never be reversed again.

Data Visualization: Justin Bopp | Data Collection: Justin Bopp & Walter Fulbright | Data Source: Fangraphs.com, BaseballProspectus.com, Baseballreference.com

Game Story: This is Byrdland.

Allen Chace — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 06:38:21 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

Woonsocket's own... (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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Well if that isn't a relief.

In his first start in the bigs since late last season, Paul Byrd threw six shutout innings and needed only 83 pitches to do so. It was quite encouraging considering the issues Junichi Tazawa had last time out and Tim Wakefield's continuing back problems. If two nights ago was the real Clay Buchholz then we should be in pretty good shape.

The rest of the staff pitched 3 scoreless innings following Byrd to finish the shutout. Manny Delcarmen, Billy Wagner (3 Ks!), and Takashi Saito (2 Ks!) combined on some excellent work.

Did those names look like some of the least important members of the bullpen? Good. Cause they kind of are. And how was it that we were able to use them instead of say, Daniel Bard or Hideki Okajima? A well-balance offensive attack, that's how.

Everyone but ['Empty] reached base. Kevin Youkilis went 2 for 3 with 3 RBIs, Rocco Baldelli hit a HR and Alex Gonzalez was 2 for 3.

On Roy Halladay day, it was quite encouraging to put up such a good effort on offense to go along with Byrd's big day. We can only hope the momentum can be carried with us to Tampa.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 13:54:06 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

Todd Coffey isn't costing the Brewers much this season, but he's been very effective.

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Some things to read while learning to fly.

The Brewers will open a three game series in Houston tonight, and Prince Fielder is expected to be in the lineup. In a surprising turn of events yesterday, Fielder was fined but not suspended for approaching the Dodger clubhouse on Tuesday.

I'm not the only one upset by how Anthony Witrado handled this week's mess. Miller Park Drunk also wrote an open letter to the JS calling for Witrado's firing. Another reader forwarded me an exchange he had with JS Sports Editor Garry Howard. Howard's reply, in part, included this line (emphasis added):

I will share your concerns with Anthony, but I have no plans on replacing him on this beat; he has proven that he has the goods and most of our readers, contrary to your opinion, Sir, commend him on his coverage.

Obviously, Howard isn't hearing enough input from readers displeased with Witrado's work. His email address is GHOWARD@journalsentinel.com. Instead of discussing Witrado's work in the comments today, let's all take a moment and let him hear our concerns directly.

Y'know what's even worse? Witrado is somehow managing to keep his job while Hal McCoy, Hall of Fame beat writer for the Dayton Daily News, is losing his. Tom H. joins me in being saddened by that news.

Meanwhile, Prince Fielder continues to have one of the best offensive seasons in baseball. Entering play yesterday, Fielder had been on base at least one time in a game 94 times this season, the second highest total in all of baseball.

Carlos Villanueva will make his third start tonight after a very successful second outing. The Brewers seem to be taking it slow while stretching Villy out, so it's probably safe to assume they're looking at about six innings and 85-90 pitches as the target tonight. Meanwhile, Villanueva says his struggles this season have been mainly mental.

Another day, another note on the ineptitude of Jason Kendall: Miller Park Drunk says he's the punching bag every team needs.

In the minors:

Mark Rogers is the Prospect of the Week over at Between the Green Pillars.
Juan Sanchez, a minor league Rule 5 pick from the Twins organization, has been promoted to Brevard County. Sanchez played six positions during his half season with the Rattlers.
The Brewers raided the independent leagues again yesterday, signing pitcher Tom Wilhelmsen from the Tucson Toros of the Golden Baseball League. Wilhelmsen was the Brewers' seventh round pick in 2002, and is expected to report to Helena.

The Brewers moved up one spot to 19th in Yahoo's Power Rankings.

Around baseball:

D-Backs: Placed Justin Upton on the DL with an oblique strain.
Mets: Acquired infielder Anderson Hernandez from the Nationals for a minor league infielder.
Nationals: Acquired Daryle Ward and Norris Hopper from the White Sox.
Rays: Signed reliever Winston Abreu to a minor league deal.
Red Sox: Placed Rocco Baldelli on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Yankees: Acquired Chad Gaudin from the Padres for a PTBNL.

Bart Given's explanations of baseball roster rules are quickly becoming a must-read. Today, he answers a reader question regarding the payment of appearance-based incentives for a player traded mid-season.

How would you build a bullpen? The Book Blog noticed a study in the Wall Street Journal which discovered nearly no correlation between the cost of a bullpen and its effectiveness. Tangotiger uses that as justification for finding cheap bullpen alternatives.

Also in the Journal, Vince Gennaro attempts to use ratings already in place in the financial world to assess the value of #1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg. (h/t Baseball Musings)

The Brewers will have to make their own history today: I wasn't able to find a single notable event or Brewer birthday on August 7.

Drink up.

Rays Made Right Choice With Gabe Kapler Signing

Tommy Rancel — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 08:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

Tampa Bay Rays' Gabe Kapler, and teammate Gabe Gross are joined at the arm. Together they form one really good right fielder named Gabe.

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One of the more spirited conversations this spring was over the Rays choice to sign Gabe Kapler instead of re-signing fan favorite Rocco Baldelli. Many Rocco fans felt that Baldelli, not Kapler, would have been a better right handed dance partner for Gabe Gross in right field. However, Andrew Friedman signed Kapler for $1,000,018.00 dollars while Baldelli signed an incentive laced contract with division rival Boston Red Sox.

Injury concerns played a pivotal role in the choice as the Rays were still leery about Baldelli's condition holding up over the course of the season. I'm sure we are all glad to see that Rocco has remained relatively healthy this year, but in terms of production it seems the Rays made the better choice in going with the Gabe of the day platoon.

Based on overall numbers, the production looks almost even. Kapler is hitting .250/.331/.456 while Baldelli is hitting .269/.331/.454. Baldelli has the higher batting average, but Kapler makes up for that with walks as you can see with the identical OBP. When Kapler hits the ball it's been with authority as shown in the slightly higher slugging percentage.

However, Kapler wasn't signed for his overall production. He is what he is, a platoon player, and a damn good one at that. With Gross handling the righties, the Rays need someone to handle the southpaws; this is what Kapler does.

Vs. LHP	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	XBH
Kapler	114	0.302	0.386	0.594	0.980	19
Baldelli	78	0.296	0.359	0.437	0.796	4

Baldelli is no slouch against lefties, but Kapler is a beast. His 19 extra base hits against lefties are two more than Rocco has hit all together over the last two seasons against both lefties and righties (18 XBH in 209 PAs). Beside the offensive side of the platoon, Kapler has exhibited above average defense in the outfield which is something Baldelli has not this year.

For the season Kapler has put up a 4.9 UZR overall in the outfield. This includes a small sample size of below average defense in center and left field. For the position the Rays signed him, right field, Kapler has put up a 6.0 UZR. Baldelli on the other hand has been below average in the field this year. Rocco has played in the outfield 31 times this year and has posted a career worst -1.1 UZR. Please take into account that we are dealing with part time players so the sample sizes are smaller than a regular player, but they are that way by design. Looking at right field specifically, Baldelli has a UZR of -2.6 or nearly nine runs worse than Kapler.

One of the topics of discussion when the subsequent signings went down was salary. The Rays handed Kapler his million eighteen dollars and said go to work. The Red Sox signed Baldelli for a base salary of $525K or almost half of Kapler's base. This ruffled the feathers of some Rays fans who said OMG, we gave this guy more money than Baldelli; not quite.

Because of Baldelli's condition, the Red Sox loaded his deal with performance and roster bonuses. In addition to the base salary, Baldelli could've earned an additional $5.25 million dollars based on plate appearances and another $1.75 million dollars based on days active. For Baldelli to earn the first of his performance bonuses, he would need to amass 325 plate appearances. With 113 on the season, it does not seem likely that Rocco will hit even the lowest bench mark of these bonuses. He will, however, make some extra coin because he has been able to stay on the active roster nearly all season. Baldelli is scheduled to make and extra $250k for staying active for the following amount of days: 15, 40, 65, 90, 115, 140, 165.

Rocco has appeared in 42 games this year, but this is not based on games played, but days active. Without actually counting the number of days Rocco has been active, we can still gauge about how much he's made. To be safe, I'll say he has not reached the 90 day plateau, although he may actually have. Just by hitting the 15, 40 and 65 day marks, he has earned an additional $725k which puts his contract around $1.250 million dollars. If he stays healthy, he should earned an addition $500k pushing his deal near the $2 million dollar mark.

I'd be too much of an Andrew Friedman homer if I didn't mention Jonny Gomes in this revision of history. The Rays let Gomes walk after the 2008 season and he caught on the Cincinnati Reds on a minor league deal. After opening up the season in the minors, Gomes has simply mashed for the Reds. In 156 plate appearances, Gomes is hitting .273/.363/.561 with 11 home runs. He continues to eat left handed pitching and has an OPS of 1.020 against them in 64 PAs this year. At under a million dollars for the year, offensively Gomes is a steal. However, his move to the National League means Gomes has to actually play defense which we all know can be an adventure. He has not been terrible defensively this year, but has a UZR of -1.4 overall. I'd also add that Gomes is playing in a weaker division and his home ballpark is hitters friendly to say the least.

Taking all things: offense, defense, and contract into account, I am comfortable in saying the Rays made the "right" decision with Kapler. As much as people love Rocco and I love Gomes, Kapler has done exactly what we've asked from him this year. Sure, at times he takes ridiculous routes to track down balls in the outfield, and his baserunning has questionable from time to time, but overall the Rays are getting their moneys worth and more with Kapler.

Red Sox acquire Brian Anderson from White Sox.

Allen Chace — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 20:07:46 -0000

More photos » AP

They will be wearing different hats later this afternoon. (AP Photo/File)

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Purely a depth move here, as Brian Anderson has been struggling to hit in Chicago.

Once again. Depth. Insurance for Baldelli. We didn't acquire a guy with a .652 OPS over 862 PAs in order to trade Jacoby Ellsbury.

In exchange, the White Sox will receive $$ and Mark Kotsay to bolster their bench. No official announcement to the effect has been made yet, but Anderson should be headed to Pawtucket unless someone is injured.

Game 88: Beckett caps first half with CG over Royals

Randy Booth — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 02:27:21 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

5 months ago: Emily DiMaggio, right, widow of former Boston Red Sox player Dom DiMaggio, throws out the first pitch as Red Sox's Tim Wakefield, foreground, catches before the start of a baseball game between the Red Sox and the Kansas City Royals, Sunday, July 12, 2009, in Boston. The Red Sox honored Dom DiMaggio on Sunday by dedicating the center-field flagpole to him and raising a banner with his name on it just below the American flag. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

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Final - 7.12.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Kansas City Royals	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0
Boston Red Sox	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	1	X	6	10	0
WP: Josh Beckett (11 - 3) LP: Bruce Chen (0 - 4)

Complete Coverage >

Royals vs Red Sox recap
Royals vs Red Sox boxscore

That, my friends, is what we call a "gem."

Josh Beckett led the charge in the Red Sox's 6-0 win over the Royals Sunday by throwing a complete-game, three-hit shutout. It is Beckett's 11th win of the season, tied for the best in the AL with teammate Tim Wakefield.

Beckett walked none and fanned seven in the outing.

"Oh, he was good," Terry Francona said after the game. "He attacked the strike zone with his fastball and it was very obvious they wanted to hit his fastball."

Jason Varitek said he "struggled" during parts of the game, but the end result doesn't show that. Beckett put an exclamation mark on the end of the Red Sox's first half of the season and puts them in a great position -- alone atop the AL East -- heading into the second half.

Aaron Bates led the offense by going 3 for 4 with two doubles, a run and an RBI. Jason Bay pulled off a ridiculous game: he walked three times and was hit by two pitches. His final line was 0 for 0, but his OBP is loving him.

Dustin Pedroia (.303 on the year now), Kevin Youkilis (.298) and Rocco Baldelli (.282 -- not bad!) each had two hits on the game. Youk, David Ortiz, Jason Varitek and Baldelli each had an RBI. Nick Green also walked three times.

And now let's all exhale -- wooo. It's All-Star break time. Let's enjoy the festivities and hope for an even better second half by the Sox.