All Assumptions-Are-Dangerous Minor League Free Agent Team

Jeff — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 06:07:19 -0000

Dave at Fangraphs passed along a link to this year's crop of minor league free agents. A popular thing to do with this information is pick out a handful of guys that would make interesting and potentially worthwhile pick-ups. This is not that. This is a full team made up of guys who, years ago, were supposed to go on to do some big big things, only to end up on the fall 2009 list of mlFA's. Consider this just another reminder that you should never ever ever take a prospect's future for granted.*

C: JR House
1B: Ryan Shealy
2B: Josh Barfield
SS: Antonio Perez
3B: Dallas McPherson
LF: Wes Bankston
CF: Joe Borchard
RF: John-Ford Griffin
DH: Josh Phelps

BENCH-C: JD Closser (does Ben Davis still count?)
BENCH-INF: Eric Duncan
BENCH-OF: Dave Krynzel
BENCH-UTIL: Donnie Murphy

SP: Jerome Williams
SP: Greg Miller
SP: Kenny Baugh
SP: Humberto Sanchez
SP: Bobby Brownlie

RP: Jose Capellan
RP: Wes Littleton
RP: Casey Fossum
RP: John Van Benschoten
RP: Chad Orvella
RP: Clint Everts
RP: Andrew Brown

If there were a 26th spot, I'd give it to Dee Brown, but it would just be so damn easy to include him that I had to find an alternative. Also among the free agents are formerly established Major Leaguers like Chris Capuano and Chad Cordero, along with the astonishingly driven Jolbert Cabrera. Jolbert just wants to win. Come on, Yankees. Take the plunge. Win one for Jolbert.

If there were a 27th spot, I'd give it to Mark McGonigle, because, really? McGonigle?

* never take any player's future for granted

Tampa Bay Rays Sign Jorge Julio, Release Chad Orvella

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 20:23:37 -0000

Some Triple-A bullpen news today. Chad Orvella has been released and Jorge Julio signed. For Orvella, he just hadn't pitched very well upon returning from surgery and he seemed to be filler more so than a legitimate option. Given his former ‘closer of the future' tag, I'm guessing he'll latch on somewhere, but there's a certain possibility that his last major league appearance has already been made.

As for Julio, he's bounced around a lot over the last three seasons. He's spent time with the Marlins, Rockies, Braves, Indians, and Brewers while compiling 109 innings, 65 walks, and 103 strikeouts. That means Julio has struck out 21% of the batters he's faced and has an unintentional walk percentage of 12.2%, that's not too bad. Unfortunately for Julio, this has been his career worst season. He's not quite as bad as the ERA suggests, mostly because of a 54.5% strand rate, but his time in Milwaukee was atrocious nonetheless.

Listed from 2006-2009:

K%: 30.8, 20, 25.8, 14.8

uBB%: 11.6, 10.4, 12.9, 17

If you were looking at his previous three seasons last off-season to determine whether he would be a worthwhile addition or not, you would be thinking this year was a ridiculous outlier to date. His FIP over those last three seasons were: 4.09, 4.76, 4.17, 6.40. ZiPS is projecting a 4.5 FIP from here onward, which is on par with what ZiPS expects from Joe Nelson and Jason Isringhausen.

Snide remarks made about this move are going to be full of misunderstanding. Julio is free talent. A lively arm with a track record of success at little cost is a worthwhile and ultimately low risk maneuver. The absolute worst thing that can happen here is that he bombs in Durham and we never talk about him again. The best would be he works out whatever issues he had and go on a tear like 2006 or 2008. If not, no biggie.

SB Nation - Chad Orvella

All Assumptions-Are-Dangerous Minor League Free Agent Team

Tampa Bay Rays Sign Jorge Julio, Release Chad Orvella