SB Nation - Brian Stokes

Cranky Friday Hodgepodge

James Kannengieser — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 16:00:36 -0000

None of the following items warranted a full post so I put them together. Here goes:

1. Brian Stokes entered the game Wednesday vs. the Rockies in the 8th inning with the score tied 2-2. He proceeded to give up 3 runs and Francisco Rodriguez came in to mop things up. Anything seem backwards here? The team's best reliever, Frankie, was only brought into a game after another reliever imploded. Why not bring him in to start the inning? The Mets' offense stinks, so keeping the game scoreless at that juncture was quite important. Frankie was obviously available to pitch and should have been brought in to a high leverage spot. Seems pretty simple.

2. Cory Sullivan has been not-terrible for the Mets this season but let's get real - he has no future with the big club except as an emergency injury fill-in. He's a 30 year-old below average hitter only capable of playing non-premium corner outfield positions. There is no intelligent reason to continue depriving Nick Evans of major league playing time in favor of Sullivan. Evans has displayed potential to be a decent major league hitter, especially against left-handed pitching. As BlueAndOrange.net noted recently, he has spent some more time in the outfield this season. Even if his future with the Mets is as a bench player, he could provide some decent value as a masher of lefthanded pitching in lieu of paying the Julio Francos of the world $1-$2 million. Play Evans in September.

3. I'm late to this party, but Dave Cameron at Fangraphs wrote that he couldn't care less about who wins the individual postseason awards, specifically the AL MVP. Some AA readers agreed but I don't. In a vacuum, I agree that the Cy Young and MVP voting don't really mean much. But when reading every offseason that BBWAA Hall of Fame voters base their choices on previous Cy Young and MVP voting, I start to care. The Hall of Fame is important, much moreso than postseason awards. For the foreseeable future, the BBWAA will be voting on both accolades. So when I read Sean McAdam's rationalization for exluding Bert Blyleven from his Hall of Fame ballot, I am annoyed:

For a guy who pitched 22 seasons, he received Cy Young votes in four years. Put another way, only once every five years, Blyleven was considered one of his league's 10 best pitchers. Sorry, but that doesn't exactly scream "all-time great" to me.

Why should past buffoonery by voters preclude a player from induction into the Hall of Fame? In 20 years when Joe Mauer is Hall eligible, and hasn't won any MVPs despite deserving like 7 (meanwhile Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard have 4 apiece), how fair will Jon Heyman's Mauer-less ballot be ("he didn't win any MVPs, hence wasn't dominant")? Why not judge players by their on-field accomplishments rather than the subjective opinions of men who didn't have a clue 30 years ago? I understand some of the backlash against the FJM type snark in the Internet baseball community. Sometimes enough is enough. However, this doesn't mean faulty reasoning and poorly constructed arguments, especially by voting members of the BBWAA, should be given a free pass by people who know better.

4. Back to the Mets. Matt at Metsblog ran a piece this week about Jose Reyes. The key words:

is he [Reyes] ‘that player,’ you know, the guy who shows signs of greatness, who i believe is a super star, but who then drifts in to struggle, then back to greatness, then back to struggle, all interspersed with the occasional injury, talk of immaturity and a magazine cover…["snip", credit Rob Neyer]…in other words, i know jose can be great… my question is, will he be great… or, like olney says, will he end up being the team’s great white whale…

Before I comment any further, some Reyes facts/opinions:

Reyes is 26 years old.
At worst, Reyes is one of the top 5 most valuable shortstops in baseball. At best, he is only behind King Hanley Ramirez in terms of awesomeness.
He is almost certainly the best shortstop in Mets history.
Yeah, he dances. This pisses off Phillies fans and announcers, who have bestowed upon themselves the job of determining what constitutes acceptable celebration.

Let's get one thing straight. Jose Reyes is a superstar, 2009 injury or not. He is one of the top 25 most valuable position players in baseball and is signed through next season at a major discount. In case anyone has forgotten, there are only 30 teams in baseball, meaning Reyes is good enough to be the best player on at least 1 team (nevermind that David Wright and Carlos Beltran also fit this criteria, but stay tuned for item #5). Jose Reyes is great. You do not trade him for Matt Cain. Yet for some reason, I can already sense the offseason "let's trade Reyes" calls from Mets bloggers and fans. Nonsense. His value is actually pretty low because of injury, as commenters noted on this thread, and even so it would be almost impossible to receive equal value in return for our homegrown shortstop. I was happy to see Matt follow up to his original Reyes post, providing some clarification:

To be honest, the bitter tone in my post from yesterday, here, was probably the result of me being frustrated with this overall season, while missing Jose’s energy and attitude on the field… frankly, the Mets don’t feel the same and are far less entertaining without him.

There's a difference between wanting to see better performance from Reyes and labeling him a disappointment. Heck, I want to see more from Albert Pujols, I think he's even better than his numbers dictate. At the same time, I don't think I'll ever say that Pujols or a 5-6 WAR Mets shortstop is a disappointment or not a superstar. To paraphrase a smart Mets fan, let's not crap on our laudable players, while lauding our crap players.

5. Jayson "Worth The Wait: Tales of the 2008 Phillies" Stark's Mets Ether made the rounds yesterday, resulting in a concise and effective FanShot by johnmac7512. The money quote from Stark's piece:

What do the Mets need? We heard terms like "gamers" and "blue-collar players" over and over. To be a truly great team, said one scout, "you need grinders, not stars. And the Mets have been All-Stars and no grinders."

What, Daniel Murphy isn't blue collar enough? Boy, I would do anything to become one of the infamous "anonymous scouts". It would be fun to throw a wrench into the standard drivel being spouted by these "credible" sources. To quote Matt Damon as Colin Sullivan in The Departed, "Qui gives a sh*t" if a guy is a "gamer", as long as he is a valuable player. Marty Noble's latest ~~comedy act~~ mailbag also touched on this no-longer-infuriating-because-I-am-so-used-to-it nonsense:

My sense of the division race then was that the Phillies had several players -- Shane Victorino, Werth, Rollins and Raul Ibanez -- who enjoyed every moment on the field and didn't want to leave it until they had buried their opponent. And they had dominating talent in Howard and Utley.

I didn't see those characteristics in comparable quantities with the Mets. I thought too many Mets players were too easily satisfied and that not enough of the players with dominating talent delivered in critical situations. The 2009 Mets, more than Mets teams of the three previous seasons, were fundamentally flawed and tended to make grand mistakes.

Define "grand mistake." How about foolishly raising your arms to signify ground-rule double as an opposing team's hitter legs out an inside-the-park home run? Or dropping a routine pop-up then throwing the ball away, allowing the batter to make it all the way home? What about failing to cover 2nd base after an opposing player draws a walk, allowing him to sprint to 2nd? Yep, these are all flawed accomplishments of the ~~New York Mets~~ Philadelphia Phillies in 2009! (and these 3 plays are just off the top of my head) All teams make boneheaded mistakes. There are no "perfect" players (sorry Steve Phillips). Yes, it seems the Mets' mistakes this season came at unopportune times and maybe Ryan Church should have touched 3rd base, but these things don't only happen to the team in Flushing. Stuff happens.

I worry about stories like this because of the negative impact they have on the legacies of David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran. These are 3 potential Hall of Fame players, yet I can see New York sportswriters and fans unfairly remembering them as chokers. As players who failed to live up to their ability. And that really sucks. Short of bringing fake blood capsules onto the field and exploding them on their faces after crashing into the outfield wall or diving into the stands, I don't know what else the core trio can do to truly become "grinders." I've been inspired to write an alternate reality short story, where the 2007 collapse didn't happen, the Mets won a World Series, and Wright, Reyes, and Beltran are paraded around New York City like conquering heroes. Stay tuned for that, at some point.

6. Josh Thole means business. It's been said. Now let's not say it again and just observe the development of the organization's top catching prospect.

7. Hey Brian Bruney - maybe you should learn how to throw a strike before you run your mouth.

8. First and last time I'll post this. Follow me on Twitter, if you want to read more cantankerous ramblings about the Mets and pop culture.

Tim Redding Good, Mets' Offense Bad: Rockies 5, Mets 2

Eric Simon — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 03:36:37 -0000

The Mets' ship may be sinking like lead but Tim Redding is doing his best to secure himself work for the 2010 season. On July 17, Redding had a 7.22 ERA after allowing a run on three hits in two-thirds of an inning of relief against the Braves. Since then, Redding has allowed 15 earned runs in 37.2 innings -- a 3.58 ERA -- and has lowered his season ERA to a better-but-still-terrible 5.70. Tonight he allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk in 6.2 innings, striking out six and throwing 74 of 114 pitches for strikes.

On the negative side of the pitching ledger for the Mets was Brian Stokes, who had his second disastrous outing in his last three appearances, coughing up three runs on three hits and three walks -- one intentional -- in just a third of an inning. By tomorrow, Jerry Manuel will surely have forgotten who Stokes is, but let's hope that a couple of lousy relief efforts don't ruin what has been an otherwise solid season and great second half. Prior to his suckfest in Chicago over the weekend, Stokes had allowed just one run in his previous 23 appearances. He's not a superstar by any means, but he's a solid bullpen arm and makes practically no money at all, which is exactly the sort of player a smart team should hang onto to fill out their bullpen.

Offensively, the Mets managed just five hits and a walk against Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales. Jeff Francoeur had one of those hits -- a solo homerun in the fourth -- but also contributed a double-play grounder in the first and saw just ten pitches in four times to the plate. Jimenez threw just 109 pitches in eight innings as the Mets' hitters constantly pounded his offerings into the ground. In all, Jimenez recorded 15 ground outs to just five flyouts, a recipe for success in the thin air of Coors Field.

The Mets used four pinch-hitters tonight, none of them named Josh Thole.

Thursday's game is an afternooner, as Pat Misch makes his second start against Jason Marquis. Game time is 3:10pm EDT, and Josh Thole is set to make his big league debut.

Haiku by Howard Megdal

Redding sharp again
Francoeur homers, but offense
Stops there; Stokes implodes

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Purple Row Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Tim Redding, +19.0% WPA, Jeremy Reed, +6.8% WPA
Big losers: Brian Stokes, -37.3% WPA, Fernando Tatis, -10.8% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Francoeur solo homerun in fourth, +12.3% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Giambi two-run single in eighth, -18.2% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -12.2% WPA
Total batter WPA: -37.8% WPA
GWRBI!: Jason Giambi

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by Ballonthewall; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	Ballonthewall	31
2	Jadden Hopkins	29
3	lstorie1971	29
4	blueandorange4life	26
5	fxcarden	18
6	aparkermarshall	18
7	metsguy234	17
8	pingel	14
9	firejerrynow	14
10	bones_boy	12

Pat Misch Impresses, Brian Stokes Doesn't: Cubs 5, Mets 2

Eric Simon — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 06:04:26 -0000

A well-pitched game by Pat Misch, who didn't do anything spectacularly well but generally kept the Cubs off the basepaths and the scoreboard. He struck out just two Cubbies (Ted Lilly once), but walked only two and allowed just six hits -- five singles and a double -- over seven innings. He's earned himself at least another start now that Oliver Perez is gone for the season; it's not as if the Mets have better options.

Jerry Manuel made two bad decisions in this game; one worked out, one didn't. In the top of the eighth with Angel Pagan on second and none out, the game tied 1-1, Manuel cued Luis Castillo, his best hitter, to sacrifice Pagan to third. While this is probably a better move in the eighth inning than in the first, it's still a dumb call. Based on 2009 data, the win expectancy for the visiting team in a tied game, top of the eighth inning:

Runner on second, none out: 54.17%
Runner on third, one out: 50.00%

The heart of the Mets' order was coming up, but this isn't exactly Murderer's Row we're talking about here. This is Daniel Murphy, Jeff Francoeur and Fernando Tatis, three replacement-level bats. Bunting with a position player is almost always a bad idea, including this time, though it sort of worked out for the Mets as Murphy walked, Francoeur struck out and Tatis doubled home Pagan. Though we can't assume the events would have unfolded in the same fashion had Castillo swung away, if we could then Pagan would have scored on Tatis's hit anyway so it's not like the bunt really bought the Mets anything.

The other bad decision was Manuel's call to bring the infield in with Milton Bradley on third with one out in the bottom of the eighth. I generally hate bringing the infield in, unless you have to cut the winning run down at the plate. In this case, Bradley was the tying run, and a routine grounder probably doesn't score him from third. Aramis Ramirez hit that routine grounder, but it scuttled past a drawn-in Wilson Valdez to bring in Bradley and knot the game at two. Now we have a tied game and a runner on first with one out; with the infield at regular depth we might still have a tied game (might not, though), but at least there would be two out and no runners on. The rest of the inning unfolded poorly for the Mets, as Brian Stokes walked Jeff Baker and then hung a meatball that Alfonso Soriano crushed for a three-run homerun. Maybe Stokes still coughs up the lead if we go back and reconstruct the inning without the infield in, but maybe it doesn't.

The Mets picked up a game on Arizona, Cincinnati, San Diego and Baltimore and are now just five games behind the Orioles for the third overall pick in next June's draft. I'm not the rah-rah type, but I think the Mets can really do this. Gooooo team!

Bobby Parnell takes on Ryan Dempster at 4:10pm EDT on Saturday.

Haiku by Howard Megdal

Mastery by Misch
Momentary; Sori socks
Substandard slider

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Bleed Cubbie Blue Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Pat Misch, +35.1% WPA, Fernando Tatis, +26.7% WPA
Big losers: Brian Stokes, -65.5% WPA, Cory Sullivan, -16.6% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play:
Teh sux0rest play:
Total pitcher WPA: -29.9% WPA
Total batter WPA: -20.1% WPA
GWRBI!: Alfonso Soriano

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by firejerrynow; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	firejerrynow	70
2	KeithsMoustache	52
3	itsmetsforme	36
4	Jadden Hopkins	25
5	fxcarden	23
6	David G	21
7	Syler	18
8	dcrockett17	16
9	Michkin	16
10	metsguy234	13

Soriano's First HR In August Leads Cubs To 5-2 Win Over Mets

Al — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 22:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Time for a hot streak to start, Sori.

Browse more photos »

There may be life in the corpse after all.

After getting only two runners past first base through seven innings, one of them scoring, the Cubs wasted Ted Lilly's outstanding starting outing when Kevin Gregg gave up a run-scoring single to Fernando Tatis.

No, wait. That's not fair to Gregg, who got Tatis to hit a two-out fly ball that most left fielders would have caught up with. Alfonso Soriano actually did do that, then let the ball pop out of his clove. It was his third defensive miscue of the game and gave the Mets a 2-1 lead, though his relay throw to Ryan Theriot was sent on home to nail Daniel Murphy at the plate.

And the way the Cubs have played most of this month, that would have been it -- giving up the lead run in the late innings, they haven't been able to mount comebacks. This time, though, a double from Milton Bradley -- who also had an adventurous game in the outfield, even while having a fine day at the plate -- started the game-winning rally off Mets reliever Brian Stokes. Stokes has been the Mets' most consistent reliever all year, but he couldn't stop the Cubs. Derrek Lee moved Bradley to third on a deep fly ball to RF, where he scored the tying run on an Aramis Ramirez single.

Jeff Baker walked -- that surprised all of us, who thought he might not have checked his swing in time on a 3-2 pitch -- and then Soriano hit his game-winning blast.

Carlos Marmol made us think he was going to play walkathon again, walking the leadoff hitter in the 9th, but then he got three quick outs including a pair of K's and the Cubs took the first game of the series 5-2, helping Lou Piniella celebrate his 66th birthday today.

Let's address the booing of Bradley and Soriano first. I've consistently said that I'd only boo a perceived lack of effort. I don't see that from either one of those players -- I do think they are giving 100% effort on the field. Bradley was booed when he misplayed a ball in the second inning, allowing the Mets' first run to score, and thereafter had a mix of boos and cheers when he came up to bat. He also bowed to the crowd in RF after making a nice catch in the seventh inning, which I thought was pretty funny and actually, an appropriate reaction from him. The booing really isn't necessary, but I can understand fans' frustration with Bradley, who just doesn't seem to be a good fit here. He's made odd comments and then blamed the media for trying to inflame things. There was quite a group of reporters on the field outside the Cubs dugout before the game, probably trying to get more on this story, which I wish would just go away.

It is not my purpose here to reignite the debate about whether Bradley should stay or not. My position is clear and I'm sticking with it -- I think he should be traded, and hope the Cubs can do that. In the meantime I hope he hits the hell out of the ball in September, because that would help the team he's on right now. Here are some cogent comments from Cubs Hall of Famer Billy Williams on this issue:

The sense he gets, Williams said, is fans are focused on what players do on the field and they don't care about race or your family tree.

"Here's a case of a player who played here and had some good years -- Randy Hundley -- and his son [Todd] came here and didn't do so well and he got booed," Williams said. "It's not directed to any player who's doing good, it's directed to players who aren't having a good year. The fans just want to see good baseball.

"Because we've made the playoffs the last couple years, they want a winner here," he said. "If you don't perform, they say, 'Hey, he's in the Major Leagues and he should perform.'"

Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee told Bradley the best thing to do is ignore the comments. Williams agrees.

"You've got to have confidence that you can get beyond that," Williams said. "Those people have a problem. You have to be like a duck out of water -- you have to let it flow off your back."

Amen, Billy. Amen.

As for Soriano, Lou admitted during the postgame news conference that Sori's knees are still bothering him and that "he just can't move around out there". Well, if that's the case, why isn't he on the DL, or why hasn't this been revealed until now? This has been speculated on for at least a couple of months, and perhaps a DL stint back in May or June would have fixed the problem and he'd be at full strength now. Instead, Lou said Soriano probably wouldn't play tomorrow and would be examined by the trainers. It's not clear whether that means Soriano has to be shut down for a while -- given that it's nearly September 1, there's no great need to place him on the DL, since rosters can expand in three days. If he can hit like he did today, maybe a day off here and there would keep him able to play most of the time, and he could start another hot streak.

Now, back to the nicely played win -- it's too bad Lilly couldn't have gotten the victory today, because he threw yet another fine game. But the bullpen did its job and so did the offense, coming from behind. I'm not going to turn this into blind optimism because I see the reality of where the Cubs would have to go if they want to make something out of the last 36 games of the season. Today's crowd of 39,381 included maybe 9,000 no-shows; the bleachers were pretty full but there were many scattered empty seats elsewhere, due not only to the recent play of the Cubs but the late-Septembrish weather. There were quite a number of people seen around the park in Mets garb, probably having planned their trips months ago when the Mets were still thinking about contending. Those fans probably never dreamed they'd not see Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran, all disabled.

Nevertheless, a win is a win, and well done at that. They'll try to take another one from the Mets tomorrow. Keep the faith.

The Diamondbacks' Aerial Assault

James Kannengieser — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:30:10 -0000

If the Mets are to lose, I'd prefer it be in the fashion of this weekend's series against the Diamondbacks - death by tape measure home run. The D-Backs mashed 7 home runs and 6 of them traveled 400+ feet. Mark Reynolds accounted for most of the damage, hitting 4 all by himself including the new longest home run in Citi Field history off Brian Stokes Saturday night (graphic courtesy of Hit Tracker):

That's a 464 foot shot hit off a 95 mph fastball. Together with Miguel Montero and Justin Upton, the D-Backs have hit 6 of the 29 longest home runs in the new stadium's history. Here are the top 10 longest home runs at Citi, once again according to Hit Tracker:

Rank	Date	Player	Pitcher	Distance (feet)
1	8/1	Mark Reynolds	Brian Stokes	464
2	4/16	Carlos Delgado	Jake Peavy	456
3	5/27	Adam Dunn	Johan Santana	455
4	7/27	Troy Tulowitzki	Oliver Perez	445
5	6/20	Carlos Pena	Johan Santana	444
6	8/3	Mark Reynolds	Nelson Figueroa	442
7	5/8	Carlos Delgado	Sean Burnett	442
8	8/3	Mark Reynolds	Nelson Figueroa	441
9	4/26	Austin Kearns	Oliver Perez	435
10	5/13	Fernando Tatis	Buddy Carlyle	433
(tie)	5/7	David Wright	Jamie Moyer	433

Some other Citi Field home run facts:

The greatest speed off the bat belongs to Dunn at 113.1 mph. Delgado is a close 2nd at 112.9 mph.
Johan Santana has surrendered the most home runs of any pitcher, with 8.
The Phillies' 9 home runs are the most of any visiting team.
Home runs per game by Month: April - 1.58, May - 1.36, June - 1.85, July - 1.45, August - 2.67
The shortest home run belongs to none other than Chase Utley, at 351 feet.

Even A Blind Squirrel: Mets 5, Braves 1

Eric Simon — Sun, 19 Jul 2009 04:36:05 -0000

With Gary Sheffield out of the lineup, the Mets' typically anemic lineup was now bordering on moribund, with little more than David Wright and Luis Castillo's on-base percentage propping it up. The Braves spotted this dying animal a mile away and proceeded to walk Wright intentionally three times, daring the rest of the Mets' "big leaguers" to step in and make something happen. Well, something sorta happened.

The Mets banged out nine hits and six walks (including Wright's three) and, despite going just 3-for-14 with men in scoring position, they managed to coax five runs across the plate. Mind you, three of the runs scored on a bases-loaded walk, a groundout and a suicide squeeze, but five runs is still about a week's worth for these guys so they'll take whatever they can get. The other two runs were knocked in on actual base hits: a triple by Angel Pagan and a single by Jeff Francoeur, both providing insurance runs in the ninth inning.

On the hill, Johan Santana was very good. Not quite normal Johan Santana, but superman compared to what the Mets have been getting lately. He allowed just five hits and two walks in seven innings, striking out five and keeping the Braves off the scoreboard. His overall strike rate (65.2%) was great, though his swinging strike rate (7.0%) was well below his season mark (11.7%) and just half of his 2007 rate (13.9%). It's not worth getting bent out of shape about one game, but over his last nine starts Santana has struck out as many batters (or more) as innings pitched once, and that was when he allowed nine runs in three innings against the Yankees on 6/14.

Santana's effort was almost entirely wasted by the bullpen, as Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green and Pat Misch conspired to allow three hits and two walks while retiring just two batters in the eighth inning -- one on a caught-stealing. One run had scored on Chipper Jones's leadoff homerun (off Feliciano), and the bases were full of Braves when Brian Stokes relieved Misch and struck out pinch hitter Greg Norton to end the inning.

The Phillies' game was postponed so the Mets pick up a half-game in the standings and now sit a mere eight games out of first place. Fernando Nieve (really?) takes on Javier Vazquez in the series finale Sunday at 6pm.

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Talking Chop Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Johan Santana, +44.7% WPA, Brian Stokes, +19.9% WPA
Big losers: Pat Misch, -12.9% WPA, Daniel Murphy, -10.6% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Stokes strikeout of Norton in eighth, +19.9% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Larry homerun in eighth, -14.3% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +47.0% WPA
Total batter WPA: +3.0% WPA
GWRBI!: Omir Santos

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by AnthonyR; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	AnthonyR	56
2	dcrockett17	50
3	Jadden Hopkins	50
4	lstorie1971	30
5	EMSfan9	26
6	LeiterMilnerFasterStronger	25
7	Michkin	24
8	Syler	20
9	psuwxman	20
10	Schmidtxc	12

Phillies vs. Mets: July 3-5

Matt Swartz — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:38:48 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Joe Blanton closes out the series Sunday against Johan Santana. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

Browse more photos »

After a 3-6 road trip, it seems the Phillies have finally solved their home field disadvantage...because they learned how to lose on the road, too. Well, they come home at a low point, just two games over .500 (39-37) and now tied with the Marlins for first, one game ahead of the Mets, and two ahead of the Braves. The Mets hobble into Philadelphia after winning a couple of one-run games against the Brewers to inch themselves back to .500. Suddenly, without doing all that much winning, the Mets are within striking distance. If they take two out of three, they'll be tied with the Phillies. If the Phillies can sweep them, they can increase their margin over the Mets all the way back to the four games that they found so comfortable a couple weeks ago. If the Mets sweep, it's suddenly the Phillies playing catch-up. It looks like we'll have quite a series on our hands.

The Phillies will call up Rodrigo Lopez to start Friday night's game. They still have not been able to fill the rotation spot since Myers went down, although Bastardo had a few good starts before getting injured. Fortunately for the Phillies, they will get to go up against Livan Hernandez, so it will probably be a high scoring battle.

Saturday night, Jamie Moyer will take another shot at the Mets team that has hit him so well. Fernando Nieve has been effective thus far in the majors this year, but his peripherals do not seem to indicate that performance is likely to last. This game could be pretty high scoring as well.

Joe Blanton's ERA is not so good, but he certainly has upped his performance this season. He's missing bats like never before, striking out nearly a batter per inning despite a career of mediocrity. There doesn't seem to be much cause if you look here. In fact, he doesn't seem to be missing any more bats than he used to, nor throwing more strikes. Seemingly, he just figured out a strategy to strike guys out for now. I doubt it will last, but hopefully he can fan a few Mets on Sunday. Johan Santana will close out the series for the Mets. He has had a few clunkers recently, but don't let the fool you. He's still one of the very best pitchers in the game and even the best have little runs of bad luck. The Phillies will have to be careful to build up his pitch count and foul off the pitches they can't hit well.

On the up side, Fernando Rodriguez threw 50 pitches in yesterday's Mets win and is probably unavailable tonight. They also used every other pitcher in their bullpen except for Bobby Parnell, so they could be vulnerable early in the series if the Phillies can knock Livan Hernandez or Fernando Nieve out early.

MATCHUPS:
Friday 7:05: Rodrigo Lopez (R) vs. Livan Hernandez (R)
Saturday 3:40: Jamie Moyer (L) vs. Fernando Nieve (R)
Sunday 1:35: Joe Blanton (R) vs. Johan Santana (L)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

METS

LINE UP

1) SS Alex Cora (L): .257/.356/.329

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 1B Daniel Murphy (L): .245/.313/.361

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

3) 3B David Wright (R): .338/.425/.488

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .288/.397/.508

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) RF Ryan Church (L): .292/.348/.392

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

6) CF Fernando Martinez (L):.178/.245/.278

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) C Brian Schneider (L): .239/.338/.418

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

8) 2B Luis Castillo (S):.274/.372/.327

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .262/.289/.418

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Argenis Reyes (S): .083/.154/.083

proj: .255/.300/.325
bb: 6%
k: 15%
gb: 62%
iff: 0%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a good eye, pretty impatient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .697 vs .659 ops in minors; 1.7 vs 1.9 k/bb ops in minor
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like an opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .282/.313/.346

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .261/.335/.399
proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

1B/OF Nick Evans (R): .333/.360/.583

proj: .260/.320/.420
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 45%
iff: 10%
ifh: 10%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: poor eye, not impatient, so-so contact skill
r/l: .768 vs .914 ops; 2.3 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: CF Carlos Beltran (S): .336/.425/.527

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Livan Hernandez (R): 4.04 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.51 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 3/9, 0 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Fernando Nieve (R): 2.25 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 3.34 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.71 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 14/40, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 4/25, 1 2B, 0 BB, 7 K
Utley: 4/24, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 4/23, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Werth: 6/22, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 7/20, 3 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Victorino: 2/19, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/13, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.26 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.10 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 6/17, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 5/18, 1 2B, 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/17, 1 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 6/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/9, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 3/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Tim Redding (R): 6.99 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.05 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 6/35, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 SF
Howard: 3/24, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Utley: 9/21, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/19, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 7/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K
Stairs: 2/10, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Bako: 1/9, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Coste: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.04 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

DISABLED LIST: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.90 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 1.59 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/8, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/3, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1 BB

Sean Green (R): 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 63% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Feliz: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.78 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.99 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/28, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/27, 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/19, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 5.22 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.92 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Feliz: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 3.78 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.06 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Pat Misch (L): 1.80 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.64 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 66% fb, 22% ch, 12% cb, 1% sl
r/l: .827 vs .736 ops; 1.8 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .869 ops; 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb

Misch vs Phillies:

Victorino: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 4/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bako: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/1, 1 BB< 0 K
Coste: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K

Elmer Dessens (R): 3.86 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 2.6 HR/9, 8.46 FIP, 58% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 65% fb, 35% sl
r/l: .726 vs .849 ops; 2.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .756 vs .806 ops; 2.1 vs 2.1 k/bb

Dessens vs Phillies:

Stairs: 5/17, 3 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 2 HBP
Rollins: 5/15, 1 BB, 2 K
Bako: 1/7, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Feliz: 2/6, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/4, 1 2B, 1 3B, 0 BB< 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .209/.253/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .294/.360/.441

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .300/.426/.556

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .256/.327/.532

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .264/.365/.480

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF John Mayberry (R): .250/.262/.575

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .287/.332/.414

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .238/.343/.371

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .250/.348/.390

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .134/.208/.194

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .244/.297/.451

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .286/.420/.482

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .250/.250/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

DISABLED LIST: LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

Lopez vs Mets:

Sheffield: 5/27, 3 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SF
Reed: 2/14, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Church: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.05 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 5.88 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 14/61, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K, 1 SF
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 19/41, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/33, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/20, 4 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 6/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Cora: 1/4, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K, 2 Sac, 1 HBP
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Evans: 0/4, 2 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 5.08 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.92 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 4.98 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.58 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/21, 1 2B, 4 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 6/21, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 8/20, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Castillo: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 2/3,0 BB, 1 K
Sheffield: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: J.A. Happ (L): 2.96 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 3/11, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 4/8, 1 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Church: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Antonio Bastardo (L): 6.75 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.98 FIP, 24% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.57 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.29 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.46 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.63 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/15, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/9, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/9, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Reed: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
A.Reyes: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Santos: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.29 ERA, 5.6 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/9, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 3 K
Church: 2/8, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.04 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.17 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/19, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/16, 5 BB, 1 K
Reed: 4/15, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/9, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/5, 0 BB, 3 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
F.Martinez: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 3.18 ERA, 9.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 6.39 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/26, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 2.00 ERA, 1.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.37 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs. Mets:

Beltran: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K

Sergio Escalona (L): 2.84 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.18 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.50 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/6, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 53% in minors
pitches: 78% fb, 15% cb, 7% ch (in brief major league stint)
r/l: not a huge split in minors in terms of k/bb, RHB seem to hit it harder
h/a: not enough info

Escalona: has not faced any Mets

DISABLED LIST: Scott Eyre (L): 2.57 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 5.61 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Evans: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Reyes: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

Redding Is Fundamental: Mets 6, Cardinals 4

Eric Simon — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 03:31:21 -0000

Despite ultimately allowing four runs in seven-plus innings of work, Tim Redding got things back on track a bit tonight in only allowing one walk and six total baserunners while fanning four. He pounded the strike zone in the early innings but struggled as the game wore on, allowing a two-run homerun to Ryan Ludwick in the sixth and a solo shot to Brendan Ryan before departing with none out in the eighth and a slim 5-4 lead.

John Switzer relieved Redding and struck out Skip Schumaker before a Tyler Greene single drove Jerry Manuel from the dugout again, this time for Brian Stokes. Stokes, as surprised as anyone by the call, hurriedly put his uniform on and dashed out from the bullpen to coax a double-play grounder out of mediocre ballplayer Albert Pujols to end the top of the eighth.

The Mets managed to plate a rare tack-on run in their half of the eighth and Francisco Rodriguez made short work of the Cardinals in the ninth for his nineteenth "save" of the year. Despite the rudiments of a decent start tonight I'm still plenty concerned about the long-term viability of Redding in this rotation, but the Mets happen to be long on games remaining and short on better options right now, so Redding will be given every opportunity to sink or swim. He was adequate against a mostly-mediocre St. Louis lineup -- Pujols was the only starter with an on-base percentage north of .350 -- but you can't control who you pitch against, and Redding gets $10 Joe Morgan bucks for "Keeping His Team In The Game"™ and "Pitching To The Score"™.

Omir Santos had an Omir Santos-like night, seeing just eight pitches while going 4-for-4. His .321 on-base percentage is still terrible even by catcher standards, but his .471 slugging percentage is good for third-best in the National League behind Chris Iannetta (who plays in Colorado and has wicked home/road splits) and Brian McCann (who is awesome). I rag on Santos all the time, and I'll likely continue to do so because I think time will expose his many flaws and because he's emblematic of Omar Minaya's crippling short-sighted vision for this franchise, but his .792 OPS is fourth among NL catchers, so right now it's hard to argue with the results.

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Viva El Birdos Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Luis Castillo, +18.5% WPA, Omir Santos, +13.0% WPA
Big losers: Jeremy Reed, -8.2% WPA, Fernando Tatis, -6.8% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Pujols GIDP to end eighth (Socks!), +12.9% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Ludwick two-run homerun in sixth, -16.0% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +21.8% WPA
Total batter WPA: +28.2% WPA
GWRBI!: Alex Cora

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by meigs1414; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	meigs1414	61
2	wobatus	46
3	All Shook Down	45
4	Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright	35
5	JoshNY	26
6	Michkin	24
7	The Glider	23
8	lstorie1971	23
9	dcrockett17	21
10	MetsGeek	19

Pedro Feliciano Wants A Vacation

James Kannengieser — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 04:00:19 -0000

Location: Mets clubhouse, June 21st, 11:00 AM
Situation: Pedro Feliciano sitting in his chair, 20 lbs. of ice on his arm, contemplating how to get some days off

This is ridiculous. I've pitched in 5 games in a row now. Some guy in the stands yelled to me that I'm on track to pitch in 96 games this season. I don't want my arm to fall off, what do I do, what do I do, what do I do? Think Pedro, think.

:::Jerry Manuel walks by:::

Jerry: "Pedro, you will be pitching today."
Pedro: "But what if it's a blowout? We've got Switzer and Taka-"
Jerry: "You will be pitching today. It is written. See you in the 7th inning."

I think skip hates me. Maybe he has a secret deal with Dr. James Andrews? Who knows but I don't want to visit that guy. Can I go back to Japan? That was the best season - 37 games pitched and all the Pachinko I could handle. Alright concentrate Pedro we need a plan. That Governor Paterson guy was here earlier this season, he kind of looks like me.

Maybe he can take my spot for a few days. Let's open up his Wikipedia page and see if he can throw a baseba- he's blind?! Great, just great, there is no hope. Maybe a DL trip would get the job done.

:::Ray Ramirez walks by:::

Pedro: "Hey Ray, is it healthy for me to pitch everyday? My arm is starting to hurt, what should I do?"
Ray: "All I can tell you is the same thing I told Church last season - take 2 Vicodin and walk it off. Worked out for Church right?"
Pedro: "Uhh, not exactly Ray."
Ray: "Not my problem."
Pedro: "Actually it is. It's your job. Like my job is to pitch in every game."
Ray: "Don't ask for my help again unless you're missing a limb or can't feel your extremities. I don't deal with pansies."

Well thanks for nothing "head trainer". We're playing Pujols's team this week so I shouldn't be needed. That's a relief. No reason to bring in the lefty specialist to face Skip Schumaker or Rick Ankiel right? Okay what other options are there to get me a day off? I noticed Stokes taught himself how to pitch lefthanded. He got pretty good too, but I guess that's not a surprise given all the free time he's had. Wonder if he'd be down for a uniform switch?

:::Brian Stokes walks by:::

Feliciano: "You're Stokes, right? I noticed you throwing 96 mph sliders lefthanded the other day - you want to get into a game? If we switch jerseys I guarantee you'll pitch today."
Stokes: "For real? Sounds great, I was about to take a mid-season sabbatical."
Feliciano: " ‘Feliciano' will be pitching today in the 7th, so be ready. Thanks again man."
Stokes: "No problem. ‘Stokes' never pitches, so you should have the day off."

Later in the day
Location: Mets dugout, 3:15 PM, 7th inning
Situation: Omar Minaya pays a surprise visit to the dugout

Jerry: [on bullpen phone] "It's Feliciano time. Actually hold on a second, Omar comin'"
Omar: "I was Googling ‘Sean Green unicycle' and something written by a dude in his mother's basement came up. Mentioned a guy name Stocks who is apparently on the roster. It made me laugh a hearty Omar laugh, so I think we should put Stocks in."
Jerry: "This better work out or you're gonna be one cadaverous mofo. [on bullpen phone] Get Stocks up, he's coming in next!"

Phillies at Mets: June 9-11

Matt Swartz — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 22:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

Cole Hamels and the Phillies head to New York to face the Mets. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (33-22) head back east to face their rivals up north, The New York Mets (30-25), this week for a three games series. The Mets have taken three of four games from the Phillies thus far in the season series, but the Phillies will get a chance to go up against a very hobbled Mets team. The Mets are without four above average baseball players-- Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, Oliver Perez, J.J. Putz-- and a number of people who replaced them, including Angel Pagan and Ramon Martinez. Many others have had injuries as well. With probably 13 WAR of talent on the DL, the Mets are an average team, and the Phillies are not. With a three game lead, it's pretty clear how much this series can tell the story. If the Mets sweep, the Phillies early advantage will have completely eroded. If the Phillies sweep, the Phillies will have built a six-game lead that people will be floored if they lose. If the Phillies take two of three, they come out with a solid four game lead, and if the Mets take two of three, they have closed the gap to just two games. Clearly, a lot of the story of the first 58 games depends on this series.

The Mets sent their ace, Johan Santana, to the mound against the Phillies' J.A. Happ for game one. This doesn't look promising for the Phillies, but the two faced off once before with an outcome that many did not expect.

In game two, the Phillies will send out their ace, Cole Hamels, to the mound, against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has a mediocre ERA of 4.85, but even that is lucky as he has allowed exactly zero homeruns this year on 60 flyballs-- which probably has lowered his ERA by nearly a point and a half.

The series finale will pit Jamie Moyer up against Tim Redding in a game that could very well screw with the CitiField park factors. Moyer has put together a couple solid starts in a row, but still has struggled mightily this season, especially against good teams. Tim Redding is probably not who the Mets intended to throw out against the Phillies in possible rubber matches, but then, again Alex Cora wasn't their intended shortstop either.

MATCHUPS:

Tuesday, 7:10-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Johan Santana (L)

Wednesday, 7:10-- Cole Hamels (L) vs Mike Pelfrey (R)

Thursday, 7:10-- Jamie Moyer (L) vs Tim Redding (R)

(Thursday starter typo edited thanks to some helpful comments)

METS

LINE UP

1) IF Alex Cora (L): .297/.403/.406

proj: .245/.320/.345
bb: 7%
k: 12%
gb: 47%
iff: 13%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average as he's slow and pops out a lot, and also doesn't have very hard contact
s/c/z: very good contact, average eye but pretty patient
r/l: 1.6 vs 3.0 k/bb; but .656 vs .686 ops-- main difference is babip and probably doesn't face top lefties
h/a: slightly better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

2) 2B Luis Castillo (S): .277/.378/.329

proj: .275/.355/.350
bb: 10.5%
k: 10.5%
gb: 63%
iff: 10%
ifh: 11%
babip:
s/c/z: great eye, good patience, excellent contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .697 vs .797; but almost entirely due to power difference-- 2 HR in 4242 AB as lefty and 24 HR in 1504 AB as righty
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pulll hitter as righty, almost never pulls ball as lefty
other: none

3) CF Carlos Beltran (S): .342/.436/.554

proj: .275/.360/.500
bb: 13%
k: 18%
gb: 42%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: slightly below average-- pops up somewhat frequently, and predictably pull hitting
s/c/z: good eye and above average contact though his eye isn't as good as it used to be
r/l: .844 vs .880; only slight difference in babip makes difference
h/a: .841 vs .865, probably just park factors though
p/o: definite pull hitter both sides
other: better against power pitchers

4) LF Gary Sheffield (R): .259/.394/.455

proj: .250/.340/.420
bb: 12%
k: 17%
gb: 43%
iff: 16%
ifh: 9%
babip: sinking
s/c/z: had good eye though not really more than average anymore, still making slightly above average contact
r/l: .897 vs .947, not much difference overall though
h/a: .932 vs .887, 0.7 vs 0.9 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

5) 3B David Wright (R): .345/.448/.500

proj: .310/.395/.535
bb: 13%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 8%
babip: makes very solid contact and has decent contact skill, so above average, especially since he spreads the ball around well. expect .325ish on balls in play
s/c/z: great eye, slightly above average contact, and sees a lot of strikes for a guy of his skill (lineup spot)
r/l: .888/1.018; 1.7 vs 1.0 k/bb; .322 vs .350 babip; a little more power vs lhp as well. just use righties
h/a: .959 vs .886; 1.2 vs 1.8 k/bb; especially large difference given park effects
p/o: spreads ball around very well for a power hitter
other: none

6) LF Daniel Murphy (L): .247/.330/.370

proj: .270/.330/.440
bb: 8.5%
k: 16%
gb: 44%
iff: 8%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected high because it was high last year, but highly suspect due to lack of infield hits or major power, probably closer to average. last year, he put a lot of groundballs in the hole, but in 58 groundballs, probably 18 getting through the hole is just noise. does spread ball around well, but expect only slightly above average babip
s/c/z: poor eye but above average contact
r/l: some struggles against lefties in minors but not much, need more info
h/a: not enough info
p/o: spreads ball around well
other: has done well against power pitchers in minimal experience...too early to tell though if this is a legit skill or noise

7) RF Ryan Church (L): .277/.331/.362

proj: .270/.340/.440
bb: 10%
k: 24%
gb: 43%
iff: 9%
ifh: 5%
babip:
s/c/z: swings slightly more than average and makes contact less than average
r/l: .836 vs .730 ops; 2.2 vs 3.0 k/bb even though he is mostly sheltered from tough lefties
h/a: .786 vs .833 ops but 2.2 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(8) C Brian Schneider (L): .219/.316/.313

proj: .250/.330/.360
bb: 11%
k: 16%
gb: 49%
iff: 10%
ifh: 4%
babip:
s/c/z: good eye, average contact skill, sees more strikes than most
r/l: .719 vs .624 ops; 1.4 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .716 vs .684 ops; 1.4 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Omir Santos (R): .261/.287/.435

proj: .245/.290/.330
bb: 6%
k: 20%
gb: 43% in minors in 2008
iff: 13% in minors in 2008
ifh: none yet in majors, can't find information on infield hits in minors, but he is a catcher.
babip: projected around .280 or so, which seems consistent with infield fly rate and speed
s/c/z: thus far, bad eye and slightly above average contact
r/l: seemingly better against lefties as expected but tough to see
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Wilson Valdez (R): .200/.238/.350

proj: .245/.305/.340
bb: 8%
k: 16%
gb: 59%
iff: 10%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: slightly poor eye, somewhat impatient, average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .526 vs .535 ops; 3.4 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .594 vs .459 ops; 1.6 vs 10.5 k/bb
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

OF Fernando Martinez (L): .200/.300/.314

proj: .250/.305/.380
bb: 6%
k: 22%
gb: 48% in minors
iff: 10% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected all over the place, probably about average
s/c/z: ?
r/l: no splits in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

OF Jeremy Reed (L): .311/.344/.393

proj: .270/.320/.390
bb: 7%
k: 13%
gb: 49%
iff: 13%
ifh: 5%
babip: slightly below average due to weak power and popup rate
s/c/z: decent eye and contact skill
r/l: .723 vs .433 ops; no power vs lefties at all
h/a: not much difference
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against groundball pitchers

OF Fernando Tatis (R): .273/.345/.404

proj: .265/.335/.435
bb: 9%
k: 21%
gb: 44%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: about average
s/c/z: decent eye but not so patient, below average contact
r/l: virtually no difference
h/a: 2.0 vs 2.3 k/bb; .796 vs .784 ops-- main difference is k/bb which itself isn't high
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against flyball pitchers

DISABLED LIST: SS Ramon Martinez: (R): .167/.182/.214

proj: .250/.310/.320
bb: 8%
k: 13%
gb: 41%
iff: 8%
ifh: 4%
babip: below average, projected around .280
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact, thrown a lot of strikes
r/l: .670 vs .738 ops; 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .741 vs .641 ops; 1.2 vs 2.0 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

DISABLED LIST: OF Angel Pagan: (S): .333/.429/.405

proj: .260/.315/.385
bb: 8%
k: 20%
gb: 44%
iff: 10%
ifh: 8%
babip: about average (.300)
s/c/z: good eye, patient, good contact
r/l: .761 vs .662 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
h/a: .855 vs .593 ops; 1.7 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter as a righty, spreads ball around well lefty
other: none

DISABLED LIST: SS Jose Reyes (S): .279/.355/.395

projection average (proj): .295/.355/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8.5%
projected K/AB (k): 12%
career gb% (gb): 45%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 11%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 8%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): pretty high due to speed, and does well on groundballs, should do decently on line drives due to power and infield playing in, but he does pop up a decent amount, maybe around .310
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): average eye, makes above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .766/.792 ops; 1.4 vs 1.6 k/bb; power similar, babip slightly better vs lhp
home/away (h/a): very similar except better babip at home by a lot .326/.294 causing OPS diff .790/.756
pull/opposite (p/o): pull hitter
anything else (other):

DISABLED LIST: 1B Carlos Delgado (L): .298/.393/.521

proj: .260/.350/.485
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 39% career but 44% last year
iff: 9%
ifh: 3%
babip: below average-- tends to poorly on groundballs partly because of speed and also because of shift
s/c/z: swings a lot and makes pretty bad contact, sees fewer strikes than most
r/l: .983 vs .805 ops; 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .942 vs .919 ops; 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

TUESDAY'S STARTER: Johan Santana (L): 2.00 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 11.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 60% fb, 29% ch, 12% sl
r/l: .637 vs .660 ops; 3.8 vs 3.6 k/bb-- virtually no difference, somewhat of a reverse platoon split but almost definitely is selection bias where managers rest bad lefties against him
h/a: 3.9 vs 3.6 k/bb; .634 vs .651 ops

Santana vs. Phillies

Ibanez: 13/37, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 10 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Feliz: 3/22, 0 BB, 7 K
Rollins: 2/20, 1 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/20, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 5/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Howard: 6/17, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Stairs: 4/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 1/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K

WEDNESDAY'S OPPONENT: Mike Pelfrey (R): 4.85 ERA, 9.0 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.62 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 81% fb (includes sinkers), 13% sl, 5% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .698 vs .850 ops; 2.5 vs 0.8 k/bb-- major advantage for lhb against him
h/a: 1.7 vs 1.15 k/bb; .730 vs .828 ops

Pelfrey vs. Phillies:

Howard: 5/14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 BB, 2 K
Utley: 3/15, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 4/15, 0 BB, 3 K
Rollins: 3/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 4/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 5/10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 2/9, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 1 BB, 0 K

THURSDAY'S STARTER: Tim Redding (R): 6.97 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 5.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.11 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 65% fb, 15% sl, 14% cb, 6% ch, 0.1% ct
r/l: .781 vs .826 ops; 2.2 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .789 vs .816 ops; 1.8 vs 1.5 k/bb

Redding vs Phillies:

Rollins: 5/32, 1 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Howard: 3/21, 1 2B, 2 BB (1 IBB), 9 K
Utley: 8/18, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 6/16, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Feliz: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 3/11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Ruiz: 3/10, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Stairs: 2/9, 1 HR, 2 BB, 2 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 3 K
Coste: 0/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 1/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: John Maine (R): 4.52 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 4.99 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 70% fb, 18% ch, 10% sl, 1% cb
r/l: .662 vs .756 ops; 3.6 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: very similar home & away

Maine vs. Phillies:

Utley: 7/22, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, 2 SF
Howard: 5/23, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 4/25, 3 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Victorino: 6/19, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac, 1 HBP
Ruiz: 4/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Coste: 2/7, 2 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Livan Hernandez (R): 3.88 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.22 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 5.25 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 72% fb, 17% sl, 7% cb, 4% ch
r/l: 2.5 vs 1.4 k/bb; .754 vs .805 ops
h/a: similar k/bb but more power surrendered away

Hernandez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 9/51, 2 HR, 2 BB, 6 K
Utley: 8/24, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 3/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Feliz: 4/18, 1 BB, 3 K
Stairs: 3/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 4 K
Bruntlett: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Oliver Perez (L): 9.97 ERA, 8.7 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 6.12 FIP, 23% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 8.7 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 33%
pitches: 69% fb, 27% sl, 3% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .764 vs .693 ops; 1.7 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .711 vs .795 ops; 2.0 vs 1.9 k/bb

Perez vs. Phillies:

Rollins: 8/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
Howard: 3/24, 1 HR, 2 BB, 14 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Werth: 5/16, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB, 4 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 1/19, 2 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 4 K, 3 HBP
Victorino: 5/15, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 4/9, 2 2B, 5 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 3/9, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K, 1 Sac
Coste: 1/7, 2 BB, 2 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF

BULLPEN

CL Francisco Rodriguez (R): 0.68 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 2.78 ERA, 26% GB

proj avg: 2.80 ERA, 4.3 BB/9, 11.5 K/9, 0.6 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 51% fb, 32% sl, 17% ch, 1% cb
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.5 k/bb; .523 vs .628 ops
h/a: slight home advantage but not huge

Rodriguez vs. Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/23, 1 BB, 9 K
Stairs: 0/7, 4 BB, 2 K
Feliz: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/3, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Bobby Parnell (R): 1.96 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 7.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 2.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 86% fb, 13% sl, 2% ch
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Parnell vs. Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Pedro Feliciano (L): 2.35 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.25 FIP, 57% GB

proj avg: 3.90 ERA, 3.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 55% fb, 38% sl, 6% cb, 0.2% ch
r/l: 1.2 vs 3.7 k/bb! .787 vs .569 ops! major loogy!
h/a: 1.9 vs 2.2 k/bb; .683 vs .702 ops-- a little better on road

Feliciano vs. Phillies:

Utley: 5/26, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K, 1 HBP
Howard: 4/25, 1 HR, 0 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 5/20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Victorino: 3/18, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Werth: 2/5, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Fernando Nieve (R): 0.00 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.12 FIP, 50% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.3 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 68% fb, 25% sl, 5% ch, 3% cb, 0.1% sf
r/l: .740 vs .856 ops; 3.8 vs 1.0 k/bb (254 PA vs RHB, 206 vs LHB)
h/a: .757 vs .823 ops; 1.8 vs 2.0 k/bb (217 PA at Home, 243 PA on Road)

Nieve vs Phillies:

Feliz: 2/4, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Brian Stokes (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 4.2 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.49 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 70% fb, 15% ch, 14% cb, 0.4% sl
r/l: .775 vs .914 ops; 2.1 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .841 vs .841 ops; 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb

Stokes vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Sean Green (R): 5.70 ERA, 4.2 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 4.73 FIP, 59% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 0.5 HR/9
gb: 61%
pitches: 78% fb, 19% sl, 2% cb, 1% ch
r/l: 2.8 vs 0.7 k/bb; .680 vs .839 ops-- big advantage for lhb!
h/a: slightly better away

Green vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 0/2, O BB, 0 K, 2 HBP
Coste: 1 BB
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1 BB

Ken Takahashi (L): 2.40 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.85 FIP, 39% GB

Takahashi vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1 BB
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: J.J. Putz (R): 5.22 ERA, 5.8 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.21 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 3.10 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 67% fb, 20% cb, 9% sl, 2% ct, 1% cb
r/l: 2.9 vs 3.4 k/bb; .589 vs .697 ops
h/a: 3.4 vs 2.9 k/bb; .595 vs .699 ops

Putz vs. Phillies:

Stairs: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .222/.261/.322

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .295/.343/.467

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .296/.438/.548

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .259/.337/.577

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .256/.355/.437

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .329/.386/.676

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .306/.361/.425

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .309/.435/.511

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .229/.341/.414

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .152/.212/.239

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .188/.273/.354

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .324/.500/.618

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

ROTATION

TUESDAY'S STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 2.48 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.87 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs. Mets:

Reyes: 1/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Beltran: 2/8, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Wright: 2/5, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Castillo: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Church: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

WEDNESDAY'S STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.40 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.05 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs. Mets:

Church: 6/20, 1 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
Reyes: 3/18, 3 BB (1 IBB), 5 K
Beltran: 5/18, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K
Wright: 5/17, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K
Schneider: 4/12, 2 BB (1 IBB), 2 K
Pagan: 2/11, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

THURSDAY'S STARTER: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.27 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 6.09 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs. Mets:

Beltran: 13/59, 3 2B, 1 HR, 9 BB (1 IBB), 10 K
Reyes: 12/43, 2 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 5 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 16/38, 4 2B, 3 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 HBP, 1 SF
Sheffield: 14/30, 2 2B, 4 HR, 9 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 4/17, 2 2B, 5 BB, 0 K
Church: 4/16, 1 2B, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HBP
Tatis: 5/13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 BB (1 IBB), 1 K
Schneider: 2/5, 2 BB (1 IBB), 0 K
Pagan: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 1/1, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 SF

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Joe Blanton (R): 5.46 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 8.1 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.82 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs. Mets:

Reed: 2/17, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 7/14, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/9, 2 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 3/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Delgado: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/1, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Antonio Bastardo (L): 2.45 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.48 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not faced any Mets

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.27 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.20 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/11, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 2/6, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF
Wright: 1/6, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K
Church: 2/6, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Reyes: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 1/5, 1 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 1/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Murphy: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Pagan: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Sheffield: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Santos: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.22 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.8 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.89 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs. Mets:

Wright: 6/22, 2 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 7/19, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K
Beltran: 5/15, 3 HR, 3 BB, 3 K
Schneider: 8/14, 3 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 0/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 1/8, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Tatis; 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Reed: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1 Sac

Scott Eyre (L): 2.70 ERA, 6.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9, 5.97 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs. Mets:

Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF, 2 HBP
Castillo: 2/7, 2 BB, 1 K
Wright: 3/6, 2 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Cora: 0/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Schneider: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 3 K
Reyes: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Tatis: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Martinez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.78 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs. Mets:

Reyes: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Beltran: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Church: 1/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Castillo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Martinez: 1 BB
Pagan: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Wright: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.25 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs. Mets:

Beltran: 3/13, 3 BB, 6 K, 1 HBP
Reyes: 1/11, 1 BB, 1 K
Wright: 1/7, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Church: 1/7, 0 BB, 3 K
Cora: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Castillo: 3/4, 1 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Pagan: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Tatis; 2/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1 BB

Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs. Mets:

Wright: 1/12, 1 3B, 1 BB, 0 K
Schneider: 3/11, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Beltran: 2/7, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Tatis: 1/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 2/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Church: 0/5, 1 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cora: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.80 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs. Mets:

Beltran: 5/18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 SF
Castillo: 4/15, 5 BB, 1 K
Martinez: 1/15, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Reed: 3/14, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Tatis: 7/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB (IBB), 1 K
Sheffield: 2/12, 1 BB, 0 K
Reyes: 0/10, 0 BB, 1 K
Wright: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Murphy: 2/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Cora: 1/4, 2 BB, 0 K
Santos: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K, 1 SF
Church: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Schneider: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 0.00 ERA, 6.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 3.79 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs. Mets:

Beltran: 4/25, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
Delgado: 3/19, 1 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Schneider: 2/7, 1 3B, 0 BB, 3 K
Castillo: 0/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Church: 1/6, 1 BB, 2 K
Reyes: 2/4, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Wright: 0/2, 4 BB (3 IBB), 2 K
Reed: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Tatis: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Sheffield: 1/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Cora: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Murphy: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K