SB Nation - Chris Young

NL West in Review: Center Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 19:00:29 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Don't forget about this guy.

Matt Kemp was a beast this season, but that doesn't mean the Dodgers had the best CF spot last season. For the second straight week, Los Angeles surprisingly gets pushed to second place by a team without a primary starter.

San Diego started the season with Scott Hairston and Jody Gerut platooning in center field, but by the All-Star break, both had been jettisoned, with the only returning position player being their new center fielder who had been in AAA all season to that point.

But don't let Petco Park and the constant new faces fool you. The Padres were strong in center field last season.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Diego	6	.292	17	65	.356	.445	.358	5.37
2. Los Angeles	4	.292	24	98	.350	.472	.371	4.97
3. San Francisco	4	.266	17	79	.305	.419	.332	2.76
4. Colorado	4	.269	17	58	.345	.451	.341	2.14
5. Arizona	5	.219	17	61	.288	.379	.291	-1.18

Hairston saved almost all his San Diego offense for his CF starts, posting a ridiculous .458 wOBA in 148 PA. His eventual replacement, Tony Gwynn Jr, had the best OBP in the division outside of Hairston matched with fantastic defensive play. That was enough to supersede the Dodgers, who had neutral defense and just a 13 point wOBA* edge. This can teach us two things - it is indeed a team game, and don't discredit the Padres' offense, as Petco Park can mask a lot.

All the proof and stats are under the fold.

Here's your visual breakdown, with the CF positional RAR set at +2.5. The Dodgers' team UZR is indeed included; however, it is equal to exactly zero:

The bottom three slots of the NL West's 23 center fielders are occupied by Diamondbacks. For the full player rankings, click here.

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

Chris Young was supposed to be an anchor to a Diamondbacks lineup with visions of a division title. Instead second worst defensive CF in the division (via UZR) and battled the Mendoza line most of the season. Given his performance in recent years and underwhelming showings from his replacements, Young was given a long leash, one in which he finally turned into a strong(er) finish, highlighted by a 3 HR performance at Coors Field.

Chris Young

#24 / Center Field / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 05, 1983

2010 in Preview

In reality, Young's disappointing 2009 didn't come out of left field. He might have been one of the more overrated hitters in the game before the season; taking park adjustments into account, he has just as many above league average (wRAA) hitting seasons as I do - zero. His OBP marks in his three seasons plus 2006 callup are as follows: .306, .295, .315, .311. He is an ultimate hit or miss hitter, and the reality is he might not be longterm answer. Unfortunately for Arizona, he just finished out the first year of a 5-year $28mil extension expiring after the 2013 season. The 26 year old will make $3.25mil next year and will be given a shot to show he can be more consistent and effective.

Colorado

2009 in Review

As expected, the Rockies appear to have a pedestrian showing due to Dexter Fowler's epicly low UZR score. This is a good time to mention UZR's apparent disdain for Rockies' CFers, as Willy Taveras has two seasons with a UZR lower than +8. Both came with the Rockies, and both were below negative two. Fowler had an uneven but nonetheless impressive season for a prospect who surprisingly leapt from AA to start Opening Day. Carlos Gonzalez put up big numbers in CF, much coming when Fowler was injured late in the year. Despite far less PA, CarGo produced more overall for the Rockies than Fowler (remember the UZR thing).

Carlos Gonzalez

#5 / Center Field / Colorado Rockies

Height: 6-1

Weight: 215

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Oct 17, 1985

2010 in Preview

Fowler was pegged as a great defensive player in the minors, so it will be interesting to see how UZR treats him in the future. While some of his poor score may be typical UZR hootenanny, he did have his uneven moments that could be improved. As it stands now, he will get the majority of reps in center, but if Brad Hawpe isn't traded, Carlos Gonzalez could cut a good portion of ABs from Fowler with Smith starting in left.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Matt Kemp should have been an All-Star. He earned the NL Silver Slugger and Gold Glove for center fielders, so unsurprisingly he trounces the division individually. He is truly a five tool player, and he could easily post a .300-30-100 season with 30+ SB's next year. An absolute beast, or Bison, as he is called. It really makes you wonder what Joe Torre was looking at when penciling him in the bottom three spots in the lineup 70 times last season.

Matt Kemp

#27 / Center Field / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 23, 1984

2010 in Preview

Kemp will be in center field nearly every day next season, probably higher than seventh in the lineup. He just missed being arbitration eligible via being a Super Two, so he will be quite the bargain again in 2010.

San Diego

2009 in Review

As outlined above, a tag team of Scott Hairston in the first half and Tony Gwynn Jr in the second half made the Padres quite formidable. Will Venable also raked the ball to the tune of a .468 wOBA over 53 CF PA.

Tony Gwynn

#18 / Center Field / San Diego Padres

Height: 5-11

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 04, 1982

2010 in Preview

In my opinion, the Padres made a trade for Gwynn that put them in a difficult spot, a la Dan Hawkins. How do you get rid of the son of a Hall of Fame franchise hero if he doesn't cut it? Luckily for San Diego, Gwynn did cut it last season, and the Friars should be confident putting him in center full time in 2010. The 27-year old barely has a year of MLB service time, so he is still under complete team control for cheap.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Aaron Rowand was an All-Star and received MVP votes in 2007 with Philadelphia. Brian Sabean promptly overpaid to bring Rowand in. He has been overwhelmingly average in his tenure by the bay - in fact, Fangraphs crowned him the third most average hitter in 2009.

Aaron Rowand

#33 / Center Field / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-0

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 29, 1977

2010 in Preview

With three years and $36million remaining on that bad contract, Rowand is sufficiently entrenched in center field in the near future. He had a complete no-trade clause last season, but has a "limited no-trade clause" each of the three years. I'm fine if he stays in San Francisco until 2012.

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part VII: Base-running

Jim McLennan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:00:14 -0000

by Rick Scuteri - AP

Upton is caught stealing third base Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche during a game on July 23.

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After a couple of weeks off, we get to the final part of the 2009 season review, while we look at the Diamondbacks' performance on the base-paths. This doesn't just cover the straight stolen-base, though this is the most immediately obvious component of base-running. There's also factors like going from first to third on a single: not quite as flashy as the swiped bag, but still an extra 90 feet you otherwise wouldn't have.

After the jump, we'll break down a few numbers, and see where the Arizona Diamondbacks stacked up against the rest of their National League rivals. For each category, we'll also take a look at the individual numbers, and see who the heroes and villains were for the team. But let's start, as you might expect, with a nice table of data:

Tm	SB	CS	SB%	PO	OOB	BT	XBT%
ARI	102	40	72%	22	60	131	42%
ATL	58	26	69%	15	50	121	38%
CHC	56	34	62%	11	46	120	36%
CIN	96	40	71%	18	63	125	41%
COL	106	55	66%	26	75	186	47%
FLA	75	35	68%	17	62	172	38%
HOU	113	44	72%	9	47	118	38%
LAD	116	48	71%	26	56	154	44%
MIL	68	37	65%	14	47	154	34%
NYM	122	44	73%	16	69	169	40%
PHI	119	28	81%	21	44	122	39%
PIT	90	32	74%	18	64	136	38%
SDP	82	29	74%	20	52	119	38%
SFG	78	28	74%	11	47	159	38%
STL	75	31	71%	19	54	138	44%
WSN	73	40	65%	17	45	131	39%
LgAvg	89	37	71%	18	55	141	39%

Stolen bases
Arizona stole a total of 102 bases, and were caught stealing forty times - the former number is good enough for sixth in the league, and their success rate of 72% was fractionally better than NL average (71%). However, this conceals a significant difference with regard to stealing second- and third-base. For the former, we had a solid 74% success-rate (NL avg: 71%), but when trying to take third, we were only 18-for-28, a 64% rate. League average, perhaps surprisingly, increased to 73% - I say surprisingly, because it's generally thought of as a harder job, because the catcher has less distance to cover with his throw to third.

Chris Young was, far and away, the best on the team at taking third, being successful on six out of seven attempts. He was actually less successful when taking second, where he was safe on only five of eight attempts. Gerardo Parra showed reversed numbers too, with more good steals of third (3-of-4) than second (2-of-8) by him. Conversely, from the 2009 numbers, Mark Reynolds should be nailed to second-base: while he was great at reaching it from first (22-5, for a 81% rate), he failed on four out of six attempt to get from there to third. Justin Upton had the best numbers on the team going to second, of anyone with more than two attempts, at 84%.

And for the record, the Diamondbacks were credited with one attempted steal of home. By Kevin Mulvey. Though as you can probably guess, describing it as a "steal" is a bit generous: our pitcher was caught day-dreaming at third-base against the Giants on September 30th, got himself picked off and involved in a brief rundown before retreating, sheepishly, to the dugout.

Pickoffs
Definitely an area in which the team needs to improve, though we're hardly alone in the division - four of the top five teams for having pickoffs inflicted on them, play in the NL West. The Diamondbacks' total of 22 trailed only the Dodgers and Rockies (tied with 26), and straight pickoffs - rather than those where the runner was caught trying to steal - were responsible for the bulk of those in Arizona, fourteen. There aren't any numbers available to show how these break down by base: while I've a feeling we were particular bad at getting ourselves picked off second, this is only my anecdotal hunch.

No doubt who should be looking to work on this in the off-season. Mark Reynolds led the team with seven pickoffs, more than twice as much as anyone else, and good enough for third in the entire National League (trailing Nyjer Morgan and an ex-Diamondbacks, Emilio Bonifacio, who had nine and eight respectively). Five of Reynolds' erasures were straight pickoffs, and two were in the process of stealing a base. Young and Upton were next, albeit all the way back on three, and that's probably no surprise: age and experience are likely significant factors here.

Taking the extra base
We should look at this in conjuction with the total number of outs made on the basepaths: this might be while trying to advance on a sacrifice fly, a passed ball/wild-pitch or doubled-off on a line-drive [basically, any out not covered in the two sections above]. In total, the team took 131 bases and made 60 outs, a ratio of 2.18, which is below the league average, 2.56. However, the team were more aggressive than most teams, taking an extra base e.g. going from first-to-third on a single, 42% of the time, good for fourth in the National League.

I was astonished to find that the man who led the team in stolen bases, Mark Reynolds, was actually among the most conservative on the team, with an extra base percentage of only 30%. Some of this may be small sample-size - we are discussing only 43 opportunities over the entire season - but I'd certainly not have expected him to be below Miguel Montero (a healthy 44%). Best on the team was Ryan Roberts, who posted a 56% rate in 34 chances. Upton and Young are also looking good, at 50% and 49%. In limited playing-time, Conor Jackson was 5-of-7: be interesting to see how the Dominican Winter League SB leader performs on the base-paths in 2010.

We can break the overal "extra base" number down, into the three situations where taking an extra base is possible: on first when a single is hit (we'll call this 1S); on first when a double is hit (1D); and on second when a single is hit (2S). In all other situations, the batter should score in almost every circumstance. Now, this doesn't take into account location of the hit - some singles will be a great deal easier to score from second on than others [such as when Upton hits a single 420 feet off the wall...], but over the course of a season, things should tend to even out.

Here are the percentages for Arizona compared to NL average. 1S: 29%/27%. 1D: 46%/44%. 2S: 64%/58%. This does tend to suggest that we were more aggressive than most in each situation, but particularly when going from second to home on a single. Given the youth of our roster, this would seem to make logical sense. However, I am not going to split these down into individual performances, because we are really getting down to the level where random chance makes it hard to draw any conclusions: no-one had more than 26 chances in any of the categories.

EqBRR
This stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a Baseball Prospectus stat that "measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table." It's the sum of various components: Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR), each reflecting a different aspect of the base-running game.

All told, the team ranked 21st in the majors, with an EqBRR of -6.8 runs. Most of this came from EqSBR, which was responsible for -6.36 of those runs. Breaking the numbers down to individuals, the top three were Upton (+3.2), Roberts (+1.7) and Jackson (+1.7) - again, be interesting to see how the last-named holds up, if he can come back fully healthy in 2010. Down at the other end of the spectrum, the worst trio were Chris Young (-2.1), Chris Snyder (-2.3) and Mark Reynolds, who was rated at -4.5, no doubt in part because of all the pickoffs.

Overall
From a statistical point of view, base-running is a relatively minor component of the game, compared to pitching or hitting. But it's also one over which a team has much more control - while pure speed is a talent, the ability to use it is a skill which can be taught. However, above and beyond the direct impact of good (or bad) base-running, I tend to think it can also have a contribution to "intangibles." Successful fundamental baseball provides a psychological boost, both to the player responsible and their team-mates, just as it does to us as fans watching; conversely, few things can suck the wind out of your sails worse than a blunder between the bags.

As such, while some aspects of the team's work in 2009 were credible, there is certainly room for improvement, especially in the pick-off department. Aggressive (but not to the point of psychotic) base-running should continue, but I'd like to see even more use being made of those fresh legs. Young, Reynolds and Upton are all capable of putting up 25 steals next season, and Jackson may not be too far behind, if his DWL performance is anything to go by. Add in a few more bunt hits, for we have a number of speed/power guys who should be taking advantage of infields that have to play back against them, and it's an area that I hope to see become a strength of the team in 2010.

MLB Trade Rumors: Marlins Listening to Offers for Ricky Nolasco??

raygu — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 16:00:20 -0000

by Wilfredo Lee - AP

2 months ago: Florida Marlins' Ricky Nolasco delivers a pitch during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Friday, Sept. 25, 2009, in Miami. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)

View full size photo »

Yesterday ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted that the several teams have talked to the Marlins about the availability of Ricky Nolasco and Jorge Cantu. Here is is tweet:

Spoken with teams about Florida's arb.-eligible trade bait, and there clearly is major interest in Jorge Cantu and Ricky Nolasco. about 8 hours ago from web

It appears that the Marlins are listening to offers for all of their arbitration eligible players including Dan Uggla, who is almost certain to be wearing a different uniform by Christmas. Should the Marlins deal Cantu, they will be left with Emilio Bonafacio at either 3B or 2B (should Chris Coghlan stay in LF), and either 1B prospects Logan Morrison or Gaby Sanchez to play 1B. The Marlins have a 3B prospect Matt Dominguez but he is not yet ready with the bat, but is certainly major league ready with his glove.

Trading Nolasco, who had a terrible first two months of 2009 and returned to form after being sent down to the minors, should net the Marlins some top major league ready prospects. Nolasco pitched better than his 2009 stats indicate, so there should be many teams looking to deal for him.

Who are those teams? I would guess that the Mets, Cubs (he was drafted by the Cubs), Brewers, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Rockies would have some interest from the National League. I wouldn't be surprised to see the two of them packaged to the same team for several prospects.

Could the Brewers send a package headlined by Mat Gamel for Nolasco and Cantu? How about the Dodgers with a package around Chris Withrow and James Loney? The Diamondbacks could offer a change of scenery for struggling outfielder Chris Young.

Poll

Where is Ricky Nolasco more likely to pitch in 2010?

Brewers-in a deal involving Mat Gamel

38 votes

Dodgers-in a deal around Chris Withrow

31 votes

Diamondbacks-for Chris Young?

18 votes

Marlins-they wait till June 2010 to deal him

64 votes

151 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part VI: Defense

Jim McLennan — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:33:06 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

One of three AZ errors in a nightmarish inning against Anaheim in J.U.N.E. - as in Justin Upton's Newest Error. But was he really that bad?

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Few losses were more spectacularly painful for the 2009 Diamondbacks than the one which we endured in Seattle on June 21st. With the game tied in the bottom of the ninth, Clay Zavada loaded the bases with two down. Enter Chad Qualls, who got a ground-ball to Mark Reynolds, who made a perfect throw across to Tony Clark at first, for the last out of the inning, to send the game into extras. Except, Clark muffed it, dropping the ball and the winning run cantered across home-plate. That was one sad example of what seemed to plague Arizona for much of the year - just a week later, another inter-league game, against Anaheim, turned into a meltdown with three Angels batters reaching on D-backs' errors in the same frame.

Looking at some defensive stats, it would seem very clear that it's an area in which the Diamondbacks need to improve significantly, if they are to have any hope of challenging next season. However, as ever, after the jump, we'll be taking a look at a broader range of numbers and whether they can add any depth to the picture. We'll also see who they say was the best defender on the team this year. You might be surprised by the answer.

By just about every basic metric, our defense was undeniably among the worst around. With 124 errors, the Arizona Diamondbacks were ahead of only the Washington Nationals (143) - and that's in all of major-league baseball, not just the NL. At 68.0%, their defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls in play which e converted into outs - was better than just the Astros (67.6%) in the National League. We turned only 132 twin-killings (ok: technically, it was 131 and a triple-play), fifteen below league-average and ahead of one team, the Marlins (129). If there's any hope, it's that we had significantly fewer errors over the last 81 games (fifty) than the first 81 games (seventy-four). Let's start by breaking down the errors to see what positions were the source of our problem.

2009 Arizona errors
Pos	Err.	NL Av.	Rank
C	9	8	=5th
1B	15	10	=2nd
2B	11	13	=10th
3B	27	19	3rd
SS	16	18	9th
LF	9	6	3rd
CF	5	5	=5th
RF	13	5	1st
P	19	13	2nd

While Mark Reynolds may have made more individual errors than anyone else, third-base was not an especially problematic positions for us. First-base, right-field and - perhaps surprisingly - our pitchers, all made 45% or more errors above NL average. Whatever Doug Davis's merits, his fielding wasn't apparently one of them, as he was tied for the league-lead in errors, with five. Jon Garland was just behind, committing four, but especially notable was Blaine Boyer, who had three errors in only nine chances. At the other end, Dan Haren was one of four NL pitchers to be perfect when given more than 40 chances (Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Livan Hernandez were the others).

For right-field, I don't think I need go into specifics - I could just post Justin Upton's baseball card as an explanation there. At first-base, things probably weren't helped by the lack of a regular man at the position. Chad Tracy (56) started most there, but we had six other names written into the line-up, ranging from Brandon Allen (29 games) down to Rusty Ryal (five). Mark Reynolds was responsible for one-third of the 1B errors, despite starting only 24 games there. The vast majority (21) were before the All-Star break, and I doubt we'll see much of him there in 2010. For the next chart, we break down the E's into catching, fielding and throwing errors, and compare to NL average.

Error by type + position
Pos	Cch	Fld	Thr
C NL	11% 4%	0% 18%	89% 78%
1B NL	27% 22%	60% 54%	13% 24%
2B NL	0% 11%	71% 53%	29% 37%
3B NL	0% 1%	48% 54%	52% 44%
SS NL	6% 7%	38% 49%	56% 44%
LF NL	0% 0%	33% 74%	67% 26%
CF NL	0% 0%	80% 75%	20% 25%
RF NL	0% 0%	77% 80%	23% 20%
P NL	0% 8%	5% 22%	95% 70%

We are dealing with pretty small numbers, especially in the Arizona sample, so caution should be exercised. However, a couple of numbers do stand out as worthy of mention. The pitchers' problems mentioned above seem to be almost entirely on the throws, and the same goes for left-field - that ties in with my memories of the Parrazooka mis-firing in that position. Also worth mentioning is the change in numbers between 2008 and 2009 for Mark Reynolds. He made half as many errors at third on throws last season as in 2008 (18-9), on almost the same number of total chances. His fielding errors were also down, (15-10), but it's Mark's throws that really improved.

There's no doubt the errors tell a sorry tale of the problems in Arizona, but as we saw (in some depth!) earlier this season, they are far from the whole story as far as defense is concerned. There's a whole raft of numbers which go beyond the simple error, and some don't cast the Diamondbacks defense in such a bad light. Leading the pack would be Fangraph.com's UZR - see the above link for more info on it. As measured by that, the Diamondbacks' defense overall were at +22.0, which was fifth-best in the National League. WTF? Shome mishtake, shurely? Well, here's the breakdown of UZR by position. Yes. Another table... [Note: UZR isn't calculated for catchers or pitchers]

2009 AZ UZR by pos.
Pos	UZR	NL Rk
1B	-7.0	15th
2B	14.0	2nd
3B	-3.7	=9th
SS	7.2	2nd
LF	14.1	5th
CF	-13.1	14th
RF	10.4	2nd

There are some radical differences here, though UZR does concur with Errors that first-base was our worst position or thereabouts. Second-base comes up as a strength too - it has to be said, Felipe Lopez far from disgraced himself there this season, and we find ourselves in the same place as we were last winter, with a big questionmark at the spot. However, it's the contrast at CF and RF which are most striking. If you looked purely at errors, you'd think Chris Young was about average, while Justin Upton was the worst in the majors, commiting more by himself than the entire outfield of eight teams. However, UZR strongly disagrees, rating Young at -7.4, ninth of 11 qualifying fielders, while Upton was at +6.3, tied for Jason Werth as best in the league.

Before we anoint J-Up as unjustly robbed of the Gold Glove, we should probably do some checking. There has been some interesting work done lately on the accuracy possible by the hit-tracking systems, on which metrics like UZR depend. These are still human-powered - there's no version of PITCH/fx, which uses multiple cameras to objectively record location and speed. As a result, the 95% confidence level is +/- eighteen feet and four degrees of direction. That's a significant margin for error. If we contrast the Baseball Prospectus stat, Fielding Runs Above Average, it gives Arizona a combined total of -38. That seems to sit closer to what we'd intuitively expect. But even here, we see Chris Young in the basement at -13 and Justin Upton leading the way at +9.

Let's check one more. Bill James just released his Fielding Bible Awards for 2009, which combine votes from a number of sources. You won't be surprised to learn that no-one on the Diamondbacks won anything, but the following players were mentioned - note that these do not separate AL and NL, so the ranks are among all major-league players. Miguel Montero (13th, C); no-one at 1B; Ryan Roberts (13th, 2B); Mark Reynolds (16th, 3B); Stephen Drew (13th, SS); Gerardo Parra (19th, LF); Chris Young (10th, CF); Justin Upton (4th, RF); Jon Garland (P, 6th). So maybe Upton really was the best fielder on the Diamondbacks last year.

A couple of other things to note. Not all Arizona pitchers saw balls in play converted into outs at the same rate. If you look at the Defensive Efficiency figures for those who pitched 40 innings or more, there's a wide gap between the conversion rate for Leo Rosales (73.9% of balls in play became outs) and Billy Buckner (63.2%). Now, while these numbers need to be broken down more - it could just be that Rosales induced more infield flies, and Buckner more line drives - one would tend to expect both numbers to regress towards the team's overall mean (68.0%). Might be another reason to give Buckner a shot in the rotation next year.

Finally, let's take a look at the outfield: how were they at holding runners, and stopping them from taking a base. There are a lot of different scenarios involved here. Runner on first and a single; do they go to third? Or if they're on second, do they go home? What about advancing on a sacrifice fly? You can break down the numbers for each situation: here they are for our LF, CF and RF players. In total, however, the "hold rates" for the positions, the National League average and the number of "kills" - runners thrown out - were as follows. LF: 66.8% (63.3% ave, one kill). CF: 37.6% (44.0% ave, three kills). RF: 52.7% (50.5% ave, four kills). This is more evidence Young's 2009 defense wasn't up to much - not least because all three kills were by Parra...

Overall, there is a huge amount of room for improvement in this team's defense. Not necessarily in their range, which seems not to be the issue. It's more in the "fundamentals" side, such as hitting the cut-off man, knowing where about you have to be on a play, and not making mental mistakes. The raw talent and skills on view in the field were sometimes very impressive in 2009: however, too often, there was a problem with converting that into outs. And as Mark Grace said, if you habitually give a major-league team four outs in an inning, they will eventually bury you. Sound basic baseball needs to be the focus of this team in spring training next year, and if the players aren't on board with that, they should get familiar with the bench.

I was going to talk about our baserunning as well, but I've already gone on longer than expected, so that will have to wait for part...er, seven. I hope to have this series finished in time for Opening Day. Mind you, I'm not saying which Opening Day...

The 2009 'Pitties: Single-game Performance of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:18:48 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Petit tallies up the hits by Pittsburgh. He looks almost as startled as we were by the answer.

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The first 'Pittie of the 2009 season proved to be one of the closest ballots in the history of the awards, with four of the options for Play of the Year each receiving between 19-24% of the vote, and the top two choices being tied as late as Wednesday afternoon, when 130 votes had been cast. However, the final few votes meant that the Play of the Year goes to the Triple-Play against the Dodgers. Josh Wilson's time with Arizona may have been short - only 11 games - but between this and his turn on the mound, it certainly had its share of memorable moments!

We now move on to the second category. After the jump, we'll revisit the five best single-game performances of the 2009 season by a Diamondback - and also see why, curiously, Roger Cedeno is connected to more than one of them! The links in the header go to the game recap, in a new browser window, so you can relive the performance there when considering your vote.

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine straight frames, June 7 vs. SDP
This game was nearly an awful example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Leading 6-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls allowed five runs to blow the game. In extra innings, the offense didn't help, being blanked for eight straight frames before Mark Reynolds homered off pinch-pitcher Josh Wilson in the 18th. But fortunately for Arizona, Jon Rauch, Esmerling Vasquez, Clay Zavada + Leo Rosales were magnificent, allowing no hits from the 10th through the 18th, effectively pitching a no-hit complete game. Rosales finally got the win, retiring the last ten Padres.
Dan Haren goes fishing for Marlins, July 10 vs. FLA
The best-pitched game of the season by a Diamondback, as measured by Game Score, was Dan Haren's complete-game shutout of Florida just before the All-Star break [Haren had #2 and #3 on the list too]. It was also tied for the eighth-best Game Score in the National League this season. The four-hit gem featured one walk and ten strikeouts. After a single and wild pitch to lead off the game, the Marlins managed to get only one other runner past first-base the rest of the way. Haren also added a hit, driving in a run with an infield single in the fourth, and came around to score on a home-run by Felipe Lopez.

Yusmeiro Petit takes no-hitter into 8th inning, August 4 vs. PIT
Just for comparison, I don't think Brandon Webb has ever had a no-hitter through five innings, let alone allowing zero hits through the front seven. Of all the D-backs pitchers, you'd have got long odds against Petit coming closer to a no-hitter than anyone since the Big Unit's perfect game in 2004. But he completely blanked the Pirates offense, giving up only three walks before Roger Cedeno singled with no outs in the eighth. Petit retired the next three batters to finish strong, with eight shutout innings and threw 108 pitches, a dozen more than in any major-league game for his career.

Chris Young smacks three homers in a game, September 6 vs. COL
With homers in the second, sixth and eighth, Young became the eighth Diamondbacks to homer three times in a game. It was a startling performance as he'd only had two long balls in his previous fifty appearances combined, going all the way back to June 13th. According to Hit Tracker Online, the home-runs totaled 1,252 feet, almost a quarter-mile. Chris had a chance to go deep again in the ninth against Matt Herges, but the Rockies' hurler walked Young instead - not often you'll see a home pitcher being greeted with disapproval by the crowd for not giving up a home-run!
Justin Upton goes 5-for-5, September 16 vs. SDP
Upton became the 13th Diamondbacks to collect five hits in a game, and the first to do it on the road since Danny Bautista in April 2004 - that he did it in one of the most hitter-unfriendly parks in the league, Petco, makes the feat all the more impressive. He doubled in the first, singled in the fourth, and tripled in the sixth, giving him two chances at the cycle, but could 'only' single in the seventh and ninth. Just two players younger than Upton have gone 5-for-5 in a game, since Cal Ripken did it as a 21-year old in 1982 (Alex Rodriguez and Cedeno - yep, him again! - both in 1996).

Poll

What was the best single-game performance for Arizona in 2009?

B-bullpen no-hits the Padres for nine innings

38 votes

Haren's complete-game shutout of the Marlins

18 votes

Petit takes no-hitter of the Pirates into 8th

20 votes

Young hits three homers vs. the Rockies

13 votes

Upton goes 5-for-5 against the Padres

12 votes

101 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 'Pitties: Play of the Year

Jim McLennan — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Mark Reynolds vs. Brad Lidge on July 28. And boom goes the ~~dynamite~~ thermonuclear device (large megaton variety).

Browse more photos »

It's time to start the process of handing our the AZ SnakePit end-of-season awards. It may not be a year which will live long in fan memory - to be honest, it's probably one we would like to forget, sooner rather than later - but there were certainly moments that we'll treasure. And that's where we start, with the Play of the Year 'Pittie. There are six nominees this season, covering plays offensive, defensive and managerial, all the way from May through September. After the jump, you'll find details of the nominees, and in case you want to relive any of those moments, you'll also find links to video of the plays in question.

May 4. Triple-play vs. LAD
Immediately after booting a ground-ball for an error, Josh Wilson started the first triple-play for Arizona since May 2000. With two runners going, Casey Blake scorched a line-drive,which Wilson snagged, flipped to Felipe Lopez for the second out, with the ball then going to Conor Jackson on first to end the inning. However, in the dugout afterward, Wilson got stick from his team-mates for not stepping on second and tagging the runner arriving from first for an even-rarer unassisted triple play. "That's what they all said. That just never crossed my mind. I thought I heard Felipe saying, 'Throw it, throw it,' and knew that we had the chance to get the outs there. That's something I don't think too many guys out there would think about."

May 26: Chris Young saves the day vs. SDP
This looked like another D-backs meltdown. With a 6-4 lead in the ninth, and Tony Pena and Chad Qualls both unavailable, the Padres loaded the bases with no outs against Juan Gutierrez. Scott Hairston hit into a double-play - a run scored and the tying man was at third with two down. Then Kevin Kouzmanoff latched onto a 95-mph fastball, smacking it to deep right-center. The pitcher said, "At first when he hit it, I put my hands up, and when I saw C.Y. running back and running back, I thought, 'Oh my God.'" However, Young, going at full-speed, was just able to track the ball down at the warning track, preserving victory for the Diamondbacks and Max Scherzer, who had pitched seven innings of two-run ball, as well as ending the Padres' 10-game win streak.

July 21: Mark Reynolds dives into the stands vs. COL [and just about everyone else]
If not getting quite as much coverage as his offensive explosion - or even his strikeouts - Reynolds' defense has improved by just about every metric at third-base this year. The errors are down significantly, and he was one of the most-seen players on Baseball Tonight's Web Gems [their awards show is on Monday, ESPN2, at 5pm AZ time]. Particularly in the second-half of the season, it seemed hardly a series went by without Mark landing on some poor/lucky spectator in the front row down the third-base side. The one linked above is perhaps the most impressive such example - but you can replace that play with this one. Or this one. Or even this one. Never say we don't give you choices here at the SnakePit....

July 28: Mark Reynolds, 481 ft. home-run vs. PHI
With Arizona 4-1 down in the ninth, Justin Upton drew a walk to lead off the inning and bring Mark Reynolds to the plate. Special K delivered his 28th home-run of the year, a titanic blast to left, which landed in Friday's Front Row. Initially estimated at 464 feet, the number was revised upwards by Hit Tracker Online to 481 feet - the second-longest home-run of the entire 2009 season, and tied for the longest in Chase Field history, matching the one hit by Justin Upton on July 6th, 2008. [In case you're wondering, the site gives Richie Sexson's Jumbotron shot a distance of 463 ft] It was Mark's most impressive bomb of 2009, one of fifteen over 440 feet, as he won the Golden Sledgehammer for the longest standard distance on his home-runs.

August 7: AJ Hinch gets ejected vs. WAS
It took a while before new manager AJ Hinch "popped his cherry" and got ejected from a game. However, when it happened, it was certainly memorable. Trent Oeltjen legged out an infield single to lead off the bottom of the eighth, but was called out by first-base umpire Jerry Crawford. Hinch surged from the dugout and the two got into an impressive nose-to-nose argument, with the rookie manager doing a decent job of standing up to the 32-year veteran, who had probably thrown out more managers than AJ had made pitching changes. Also worth nothing was the backing Hinch got from some of his players: Reynolds described it after the game as "awesome," and Dan Haren chipped in with his vocal two cents from the dugout too.

September 26: Chad Tracy’s pinch-hit grand-slam vs. SDP
It wasn't a great year for Chad, and his future here is cloudy, to say the least, but he delivered a blow when we needed it most. He came off the bench with the bases loaded in the seventh and Arizona down by a run, to smack an 0-2 pitch off Luke Gregerson over the fence in right-center. It was the sole pinch-hit slam in the NL this year to turn a deficit into a lead [the other in the majors was by the Rays Ben Zobrist on April 17], and the first such in D-backs' franchise history - it was only the third PH slam of any kind for AZ, following ones by David Dellucci and Tony Clark. Said Tracy on the night, "It was awesome. I finally got a pitch I could handle... That's the first time I've had a curtain call. It's a pretty unbelievable feeling."

Poll

What was the Diamondbacks' 2009 Play of the Year?

May 4. Triple-play vs. LAD

35 votes

May 26: Chris Young saves the day vs. SDP

9 votes

July 21: Mark Reynolds dives into the stands vs. COL

28 votes

July 28: Mark Reynolds, 481 ft. home-run vs. PHI

31 votes

August 7: AJ Hinch gets ejected vs. WAS

8 votes

September 26: Chad Tracy’s pinch-hit grand-slam vs. SDP

31 votes

142 votes | Poll has closed

Your 2010 Diamondbacks: The First Projections

Jim McLennan — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 04:43:32 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Eric Byrnes and Chris Young - will they float, or will they sink?

Browse more photos »

After a crappy season like the one just endured by Arizona fans, it's comforting to turn towards 2010, even before the line is officially drawn under 2009 - the playoffs have largely become a buzzing sound in the background, with the best I can hope for, being that a team I don't hate wins the World Series. Bill James is clearly with me there: as has become tradition, the Bill James Handbook is the first of the projection systems to throw its hat into the ring for next year, and the publishers, Acta Sports, were kind enough to give us a look at the numbers for Arizona.

Think of this as an early Christmas present - it's as much designed to whet the appetite for the 'real' numbers to come next April, as anything else. That's especially the case for a generally young team like Arizona where, generally, we are looking for our players' stats to improve, simply through experience and maturity. After the jump, we'll take a look at the numbers projected for the 25 players currently most likely to be on the 2010 Diamondbacks roster, and see whether there is a shiny new truck or a lump of coal waiting for us under the tree.

Obviously, these are astonishingly early projections, not just in terms of the numbers, but the playing time for the individuals concerned. Even I would be rash to try and project, for example, how the playing time in the outfied will be split up next season: the one just finished should be warning enough there [who had 120 games in their Gerardo Parra office pool?]. Hence, for each hitter below, I've listed the number of games projected, which will influence expectations for HR and RBI in particular. I've also given their 2009 OPS, for comparison - those marked with a * are based on less than 150 PAs. I've chosen the 13 position players I think are most likely to be significant parts for next season, and for whom we have projections.

	Gms	HR	RBI	OPS	2009
Brandon Allen	122	19	60	.823	*.669
Eric Byrnes	74	7	28	.735	.663
Stephen Drew	151	17	71	.792	.748
Conor Jackson	135	12	69	.807	*.516
Miguel Montero	132	18	69	.801	.832
Gerardo Parra	132	8	64	.779	.729
Mark Reynolds	153	40	107	.907	.892
Ryan Roberts	125	11	47	.785	.783
Rusty Ryal	50	4	15	764	*.946
Chris Snyder	78	9	34	.761	.685
Justin Upton	148	28	90	.904	.899
Josh Whitesell	46	4	13	.802	*.633
Chris Young	151	25	73	.789	.711

The most obvious omission is Tony Abreu, who was not listed - I think he's more likely to be on the Opening Day roster than Rusty Ryal. I also note that the games played may make sense for individuals, but do not necessarily do so in total. adding up the totals for Byrnes, Parra, Upton and Young, you get 505 games: even allowing for PH appearances, this pretty much maxes the outfield, without any room for Conor Jackson. Unless he's playing first, but Brandon Allen has 122 games there too... You see the issue, which is why I'm not going to bother adding up these numbers to reach any kind of team total.

Still, such caveats aside, this makes for encouraging reading on an individual level, with most players expected to improve their performance, or at least stay around the same level. As noted, this is no surprise, given most of our players are on the upside of the aging curve. James is particularly impressed by Allen, whose OPS is projected to be behind only Reynolds and Upton. That seems optimistic, though I am prejudiced by his struggles in 2009. Somewhat of a bounceback for Byrnes and Young: the former goes from entirely-sucky to poor, while the latter goes from fairly-sucky to about CF average [I like the idea of 25 homers], and is projected to outperform Parra, slightly.

Montero is the only player with any real regression, and the gap in performance over Snyder is expected to be much smaller, only forty points of OPS. Roberts, Reynolds and, perhaps surprisingly, Upton are projected to be very close to 2009 production. I say that for J-Up, mostly because of his age: he's only 22 and, generally, players will improve significantly at that point, and so projecting no change feels conservative. If you discount the first two weeks of last season, Upton's OPS the rest of the way was .930,. and that may be a better starting point for his 2010 number. However, if you look at the ten 21-year olds whose OPS was closest to Upton's [a list that includes seven Hall of Famers!], their OPS at age 22 dropped fractionally, by eight points, so maybe we shouldn't expect too much.

Here are the projected pitching numbers. As with the hitters, I've selected a dozen for whom projections are available, who would seem to have a good shot at the roster. I did include Davis, even though I expect him to sign elsewhere; I certainly hope that whoever we do get as a replacement, provides around the same level of performance projected below.

	IP	W-L	ERA	2009
Blaine Boyer	57	3-4	4.74	4.12
Billy Buckner	94	4-6	4.98	6.40
Daniel Cabrera	42	2-3	5.14	6.00
Doug Davis	202	11-12	4.46	4.12
Juan Gutierrez	68	3-4	4.76	4.06
Dan Haren	221	16-9	3.38	3.14
Yusmeiro Petit	105	6-6	4.37	5.82
Chad Qualls	50	3-2	3.42	3.63
Leo Rosales	47	3-2	3.83	4.76
Max Scherzer	180	11-9	3.80	4.12
Esmerling Vasquez	54	3-3	4.67	4.42
Brandon Webb	180	13-7	3.40	N/A

As with the hitters, there are a couple of names who appear unfairly omitted. Clay Zavada appears to have a bullpen spot locked down, and is more likely to be a part of the team in 2010 than Cabrera. - maybe Daniel Schlereth too, though there were no numbers available for him Bit more of a variation here than on the hitting; generally, the trend seems to be an overall regression towards the mean, with the good pitchers getting worse and the bad ones getting better. I would, however, be prepared to bet that Yusmeiro Petit will not have an ERA better than Doug Davis next season.

One major comfort is the expectation that Brandon Webb will return almost to his normal level of productivity - James gives Webb thirty starts, and an ERA almost identical to that projected in 2008 (3.39) and 2009 (3.36), so appears to have no qualms about the surgery - though s hard to say how much such things play into these estimates. The numbers have him and Haren forming an impressive 1-2 punch for Arizona: worth nothing that less than a handful of NL pitchers are forecast to win over 15 games [Lincecum, Wainwright, Santana].It seems the W-L records are, as usual, conservative; makes sense, since these things depend heavily on the runs scored by a pitcher's team-mates.

I would project Buckner and Gutierrez to do better than the James numbers; on the other hand, Petit and Rosales will be doing very well if they can produce as expected. It's good to see James sees Scherzer as improving next year. If he joins Dan and Brandon at 3.80 or below, that would put us in very good shape, since only two teams in the majors had three such qualifying starters in 2009 (the Cubs and Cardinals), and few played in a hitter-friendly park like Chase. Finally, in case you're counting, adding up those W-L records gives us a total of 145 decisions and a team record of 78-67. I think we'd settle for that at the middle of September next year.

For the full projections, which are a lot more detailed than the numbers here, and for all the other goodies therein, you'll need to buy the book. It comes out on November 1st from Acta Sports and can be ordered through their website.

Searching for the Astros Skipper, Weekend Rundown

davoag — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:24:26 -0000

Six candidates interviewed in the past three days, and five of them haven't been profiled yet. But before we move on to that, I thought it'd be constructive to get a historical perspective on the job they're interviewing for. What do these guys need to do to become the best manager of the 18 in Astro history? Here's a handy reference chart:

Most wins by a Houston manager: Bill Virdon, 544

Most playoff appearances: Larry Dierker, 4

Most seasons at the helm: Bill Virdon, 8

Most wins in career (non-Houston): Leo Durocher, 2,008

First up on the managerial rewind is Bob Melvin, former Arizona Diamondbacks skipper:

Bob Melvin
     Age: 47
     Hometown: Palo Alto, Calif.
     College: California.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Managed the Seattle Mariners in 2003-04 and Arizona Diamondbacks from 2005 until he was dismissed on May 9 of this year after a 12-17 start. He won 93 games with Seattle in 2003 but didn't make the playoffs and lost 99 games the following year. Melvin was hired by the Diamondbacks and led Arizona to the 2007 NL West title before being swept in the NLCS by the Colorado Rockies. He was NL Manager of the Year in 2007.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Melvin spent most of his career as a backup catcher for 10 seasons with Detroit, San Francisco, Baltimore, Kansas City, Boston, the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox. He hit .233 with 35 homers and 212 RBIs in 692 career games.
    Did you know: Melvin was hired by Arizona to replace Wally Backman, who was dismissed before he managed a single game because of past discretions?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Once we started to focus in on some names and we did our homework and talked to people like Pat Gillick and [former Diamondbacks general manager] Joe Garagolia Jr., they thought he did a good job."

Melvin was a hot candidate when he landed with Seattle back in 2003, but had an up-and-down tenure in Arizona. He did usher in a bunch of kids and helped the D'Backs to win the 2007 NL West title, but he also oversaw the under-development of guys like Chris Young and Stephen Drew. His bullpen management was also spotty, mainly because he constantly changed closers due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

The interesting thing about Melvin is he had almost the exact opposite situation in Arizona that he'd have here in Houston. Out there, his rotation consisted of Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson and Dan Haren for at least part of his tenure. That's three top-flight starters breezing through town, while his offense struggled for the most part. Arizona finished 14th in runs scored in 2007, 10th in 2008 and though the D'Backs finished 9th in 2009, they also gave up the third-most runs in the league. For comparison, they gave up the fifth-least runs in both 2007 and 2008.

So, though his offense did trend upwards over the past three seasons, once they lost Webb and Johnson, the D'Backs pitching fell off a cliff. I wonder how much discussion went into what he'd do with Houston's rotation?

Moving on to the next candidate, Phil Garner:

Phil Garner
     Age: 60
     Hometown: Jefferson City, Tenn.
     College: Tennessee.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Astros
     Previous Major League managing experience: Garner managed for more than 14 years in the Majors, spending eight seasons in Milwaukee (1992-1999) and two full seasons in Detroit (2000-01) before being dismissed six games into 2002 season. He took over the Astros at the All-Star break in 2004 and led them to the NLCS and a year later to the World Series. He was let go with 31 games left in the 2007 season and has been out of baseball since.
     Major League managing record: 985-1,054.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Spent 16 seasons in the Major Leagues with Oakland, Pittsburgh, Houston, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco and hit .260 with 109 homers and 738 RBIs in 1,860 games. He helped Pittsburgh to the 1979 World Series title by hitting .500 in the World Series. He played with the Astros from 1981-87 and appeared in more games with the Astros than he did with any other team.
    Did you know: Garner became a candidate after calling Astros president of baseball operations Tal Smith to recommend Bob Melvin for the job?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've known Phil since we crossed paths in 1981 when I went to the Pirates and he was there. I've been a big fan from afar in Detroit and then here his record speaks for itself. He's a tremendous candidate."

Not going to spend too much time on Scrap Iron, but suffice it to say, he's got an interesting candidacy. Using that whole good cop, bad cop theory of coach hiring, Garner was the perfect, laid-back guy to get the manager's job from Jimy Williams, who was a little more on the prickly side. After Gar was Cecil Cooper, who turned out to have his own prickly side. Naturally, the team thought of the laid-back Garner again...wait, what? I've stopped trying to think about why they'd consider a guy they fired so recently, so let's just move on...

Next up is Pete Mackanin:

Pete Mackanin
     Age: 58
     Hometown: Chicago.
     College: Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently the bench coach for the Philadelphia Phillies.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Has been interim manager twice, with Pittsburgh in 2005 and Cincinnati in 2007. He went 12-14 in the final 26 games with the Pirates in '05 and 41-39 in the second half of the season two years later with the Reds, who had the worst record in the Majors when Mackanin took over.
     Major League managing record: 53-53.
     Minor League managing experience: Managed in the Minor Leagues for 13 seasons and won championships in 1995 (Ottawa of the International League), 2002 (Lynchburg of the Carolina League) and 1990 (Nashville, Eastern Division championship of the American Association). Mackanin has also managed in Venezuela League, Dominican winter league and Puerto Rican winter league. He also has seven years of Major League coaching experience with Pittsburgh and Montreal.
     Minor League managing record: 917-849.
     Playing experience: Played for nine years as an infielder in the Major Leagues with Texas (1973-74), Montreal (1975-77), Philadelphia (1978-79) and Montreal (1980-81). He hit .226 with 30 homers and 141 RBIs in 548 career games.
      Did you know: Mackanin has been succeeded twice by Jim Tracy as a manager, with Class A Peoria in 1986 and the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2006? He succeeded Tracy as manager at Triple-A Ottawa in 1995.
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Pete served as interim manager it Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and had great results taking over in Cincinnati. I talked to Wayne Krivsky, who as the GM [in Cincinnati] at the time, and he was a really big advocate of Pete's. He has managing experience in winter, extensively in the Minor Leagues and on two Major League club. He has a great personality and a good sense of humor."

The most interesting thing about Mackanin was what he did with the 2007 Reds. That team had 51 losses when he took over in July and went on to win 41 of their last 80 games. Basically, Mackanin played .500 ball for the last half of the season. Of course, those same Reds finished above the league average in runs scored in 2007 but dead last in runs allowed. The Reds were hitting .254 as a team when Mackanin took over and finished by hitting .279 over the last three months of the season, including a team line of .309/.375/.499 in August. Good seasons by Scott Hatteberg, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Hamilton show that Mackanin has experience getting the most out of some very different personalities.

Still, the pitching woes of the Reds that season is at least a little troubling. Mackanin used his bullpen for 263 innings and had an ERA above 5 with his relievers in the second half. His overall ERA jumped up to 5.11 from 4.79 as well, though he basically had to cobble together a rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. This is definitely another case of a guy who needs to answer quite a few questions about what he sees with the Astros pitching staff.

Next is former Astros shortstop Tim Bogar:

Tim Bogar
     Age: 45
     Hometown: Indianapolis, Ind.
     College: Eastern Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently first -base coach for Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Spent four seasons as manager in the Minor Leagues with Cleveland (2006-07) and the Astros (2004-05) and went to the playoff in three of those seasons. Led Double-A Akron to the Eastern League title in '06 and '07 and was named the league's Manager of the Year in '06. He was named Manger of the Year in the Appalachian League in 2004 in his first year of managing at Class A Greeneville. The next year, he led Class A Lexington to an 81-58 record, the best record in the South Atlantic League.
     Minor League managing record: 289-200.
     Playing experience: An infielder who spent nine years in the Major Leagues with the New York Mets, the Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, Bogar hit .228 with 24 homers and 161 RBIs in 701 career games. He started a career-high 82 games at shortstop for the Astros in 2000 whiles sharing time with Julio Lugo.
    Did you know: Bogar played all nine positions in an exhibition game for the Mets against Triple-A Norfolk in 1996?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "When this process started, a lot of people spoke very favorable of Tim. I don't know him, but certainly there are multiple people, including people on our interview committee and [president of baseball operations] Tal [Smith] and others, that felt Bogar fit the profile extremely well. Despite the fact he hasn't managed in the big leagues, they felt the experience they had with him and dealing with players [was positive]."

Bogar brings back fond memories of that late '90s playoff era, and has been a surprisingly effective minor league manager. The thing that sticks out to me was a couple years after he retired, he visited the Astros in Kissimmee as a Rawlings sales representative. The irony of a guy known for his glovework selling gloves to teams was not lost on me at the time.

Yet another anecdote I recall from his time with the Astros: some time in that playoff run (I believe it was 1997), Bogar broke his arm and had to spend the rest of the season on the bench. He credited Dierker with helping him see the field as a manager at the time, and claimed it helped him play smarter when he was on the field. Since he never hit much, it was nice to think our shorstop was sort of a manager on the field, and I remember Dierker praising his acumen on helping the fielders around him. Of course, I cannot now find any evidence of this. Still, I do recall reading about that back in the day.

I'm not sure what Bogar's strengths or weaknesses as a manager might be. We can assume that he'd help their fielding, but that's too simple a conjecture to really be true. Plus, the Astros have actually been a pretty good fielding club for the past couple of seasons. For all the grief I've given Tejada for the past two seasons, he's a good defender. Yes, he doesn't really have the range to play short any more, but he's a vacuum cleaner out there when the ball is hit near him.

Lastly, let's look at Brad Mills, bench coach for the Boston Red Sox:

Brad Mills
     Age: 52
     Hometown: Exeter, Calif.
     College: College of the Sequoias/University of Arizona.
     Most recent job: Currently bench coach for the Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Mills managed 11 seasons in the Minor Leagues in the Cubs (1987-92), Rockies (1993-96) and Dodgers (2002) organizations, moving into managing immediately upon the completion of his playing career. He led the Rockies' Triple-A club in Colorado Springs to the playoffs in 1994 and Pacific Coast League title in 1995. He last managed in 2002, when he guided the Dodgers' Triple- A Las Vegas affiliate to a club-record 85 wins the PCL's Southern Division championship.
     Minor League managing record: Unavailable.
     Playing experience: Appeared in 106 career games over four seasons, all with the Montreal Expos (1980-1983). He hit .256 with one homer and 12 RBIs in 168 at-bats.
     Did you know: Mills was Nolan Ryan's 3,509th career strikeout victim, lifting Ryan past Walter Johnson as baseball's all-time strikeout king in 1983?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've always had great respect for Brad. [Boston manager] Terry Francona made a point of calling me when the search began and gave a strong endorsement for Millsy and he got a strong endorsement from [Boston general manager] Theo Epstein. Despite the fact he hasn't managed the big-league level, everyone knows he's got tremendous experience working as [Francona's] right-hand guy in Philadelphia and Boston and managed in the Minor Leagues."

It's easy to assume that the bench coach is the guy next in line for the managerial position. After all, that's what Cecil Cooper did for all those years and it's what a ton of other guys have done over the years (Joe Maddon, possibly? I can't remember anything today). Still, it appears that the pitching coach in Boston, John Farrell, is the heir-apparent to Francona and not Mills. That explains why he'd be interested in our position. Now, why should the Astros care about him? Was this interview just a way to get Bogar on the docket?

Mills is right in the middle of the candidate pool, age-wise. He's not as young as Manny Acta or Bogar, nor is he as old as Garner or Mackanin. He's won consistently in the minor leagues and certainly has been around a winning ball club there in Boston. The Red Sox run their organization the way I'd hope the Astros will someday, making decisions based partly on numbers and partly on traditional scouting. They spend a ton of money, but they just don't throw it around too frivolously (ahem*Dice-K*ahem). How much contact Mills has with this side of the team, I don't know. The other side of that coin is, if that's what Mills is used to, can he work for the Astros, who don't seem to run their team in quite the same way? Food for thought.

Thus endeth Round One. With the word that Manny Acta is a finalist for the Cleveland job, are the Astros now taking too long in their search? What could a second round of interviews possibly tell them that this one didn't? We've already got to wait until after the World Series to announce who the new skipper is, but that doesn't mean they can't go ahead and hire them ahead of time and announce it later. What's your top five list of the candidates and who do you think will end up getting hired?

Poll

Who is your top candidate?

Tim Bogar

34 votes

Pete Mackanin

16 votes

Manny Acta

39 votes

Brad Mills

20 votes

Bob Melvin

25 votes

Al Pedrique

2 votes

Dave Clark

6 votes

Phil Garner

64 votes

Ned Yost

19 votes

Randy Ready

1 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part II: Offense

Jim McLennan — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:00:21 -0000

by Gus Ruelas - AP

A photo of that near-mythical beast - a D-back trying to bunt for a hit. File this one of Upton alongside Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster.

View full size photo »

Thus far, Arizona's hitting is the clear winner in the SnakePit poll regarding the team's biggest problem this season, so it seems a good place to start our detailed examination of the 2009 season. While the offensive numbers as a whole compared to the rest of the league did improve marginally over the previous couple of campaigns, the Diamondbacks remained stuck near the bottom of the league, finishing the year 14th in team OPS+ [curiously, league average OPS+ this season was only 94 - I'd have expected it to be 100?]

After the jump, we're going to break down the numbers so we can go a bit further than yelling "You suck!" at our hitters. Which positions on the diamond were most responsible? What of our struggles against left-handed starters? How good were the Diamondbacks at "small ball" in 2009? These and ~~many~~ ~~several~~ a couple more questions, will be addressed below...

Who the heck is on first?
Which spots on the diamond proved the biggest black holes of production as far as the 2009 Diamondbacks were concerned? Here's a chart which compares our numbers against the National League averages. I've included runs and RBI from each position, though caution should be used with regard to these, as they are obviously both dependent on other factors, such as batting order and team-mates production. The last two columns are Arizona's OPS+ relative to the league split at that position, and where it ranked in the league.

	NL Average			Diamondbacks
Position	Batting line	R	RBI	Batting Line	R	RBI	sOPS+	Rank
Catcher	.255/.325/.385	62	71	.266/.345/.437	84	79	118	2nd
1st Base	.282/.373/.485	88	102	.228/.321/.396	72	88	70	16th
2nd Base	.268/.337/.406	85	69	.298/.372/.448	91	49	118	3rd
3rd Base	.261/.333/.419	82	84	.247/.336/.487	99	90	116	4th
Shortstop	.268/.327/.396	86	70	.265/.330/.417	80	73	107	5th
Left field	.271/.343/.439	88	82	.265/.317/.402	69	82	84	14th
Center field	.268/.339/.424	95	68	.219/.293/.379	80	61	79	15th
Right field	.264/.339/.442	83	86	.294/.358/.498	95	96	115	2nd
Pinch-hitter	.230/.320/.362	27	30	.190/.283/.345	29	41	88	13th
Pitcher	.138/.179/.176	17	16	.169/.194/.217	16	22	135	2nd

First, the good news. Our pitchers, catchers and right fielders were almost the best in the league at the plate, trailing only the Cubs, Braves and Phillies [thanks to Carlos Zambrano, Brian McCann and Jayson Werth respectively]. There was also solid production out of second base, third base and shortstop positions. SS may come as a bit of a surprise, given Drew's down year, especially against southpaws, but he was still better than average. However, I would not be averse to seeing him platooned with Tony Abreu next year, Abreu starting against LHP. Catcher, third base and right field should take care of themselves in 2010, and even if we have lost Felipe Lopez, Abreu and Ryan Roberts can fight it out for the everyday job.

Then there's the not-so good news. Three positions were basically gurgling vortexes of offensive suck: left-field, center-field and first-base. The last-named had the lowest OPS of any position for Arizona in 2009, which is quite a staggering feat, and despite our hitter-friendly park, finished 16th for BA, OBP and SLG. Part of this may be bad luck, with a BABIP of .274 (overall league average was .299; Chad Tracy's .234 was particularly low), but it has been an ongoing problem for the Diamondbacks. We haven't been ranked in the top half of the league for first-base offensive production since 2005. Getting anything like average from 1B in 2010 would be a big step forward.

The other two positions have the potential to improve, though it's by no means certain. In 2008, Conor Jackson returned an sOPS+ of 100 in left-field, and if he returns to full health, will likely be the regular starter there for Arizona next season. In center-field, what happens will depend on Chris Young. If he can maintain the form he showed after his return from Triple-A in late August, when he hit .263/.351/.508 in 31 games, then we'l be happy. If he doesn't... Well, there's always Gerardo Parra, and Young can platoon with him, getting the southpaw starts. And speaking of which...

Left behind.
The average NL team hit left-handed pitching at almost the same rate overall as they hit right-handers = .256/.330/.407 vs. .260/.331/.409 for an OPS only three points lower against southpaws. Perhaps surprisingly, this was reproduced by the 2009 Diamondbacks, whose OPS were almost identical: .741 vs. .742. I say "surprisingly," because of our team's woeful 17-30 record when facing a left-handed starter; I expected this to be reflected in a significantly-broader gap between the numbers, yet this wasn't so. However, on an individual level, there were some major differences.

On the left-handed batters' side, both Stephen Drew and Gerardo Parra struggled mightily against their sinister colleagues. Drew hit just .200 facing LHP, while Gerardo Parra's power evaporated completely - he is still trying to get his first extra-base career hit off a southpaw, after exactly one hundred at-bats. While the sample-size is pretty small as yet, Brandon Allen is also in the same boat: they carved him up to the tune of 2-for-22 with eleven strikeouts this season. If those three want to be everyday players in 2010, they're going to have to learn to deal with lefties.

On the other hand - literally - there doesn't seem to be much particular problem with right-handed pitching; probably due to the greater volume of at-bats, most players' numbers are close to their overall totals. Chris Young, Eric Byrnes and Conor Jackson had the lowest OPS of our position players there, not exactly something for which we'll be running to stop the presses.

Lords of the fly-balls
The Diamondbacks were one of the most fly-ball prone offenses in the league, sporting a ground-out/air-out ratio of 0.75, compared to a league average of 1.11. Leading the air assault was Chris Young, whose ratio was all the way down at 0.45 - only one other batter in the entire league with over 350 PAs was under 0.60 [Clint Barmes at 0.53]. As we all know, Young had a particularly problem getting the ball out of the infield; 28% of his fly-balls did not trouble the outfielders. That was the most among any NL batter with 250+ PAs; Eric Byrnes came fifth in the same category, at a 24% rate.

One area that definitely seems to present room for improvement is infield hits. There's no doubting that the team has a lot of speed, thanks in part to its youth, but this was not apparently translated into a lot of hits hustled out along the first-base line. We had a league-worst total of 127 there; that's 26 fewer than league average. If we'd got those "missing" hits, our overall BA would have ended up one tick short of the league average. Upton led the team by some way, on 25; Gerardo Parra was next on 14, with Felipe Lopez getting a dozen. Upton's number was good for sixth among right-handed NL batters [LHB have an advantage, being a couple of steps closer to first-base], but I feel some of our other players could be doing better.

This is especially true with bunt hits, where the Diamondbacks managed a total of just ten all season - there were five players in the league who had more than that. In Upton and Reynolds, we have two players who possess a great combination of power and speed - the former makes the infield play back, making them vulnerable to a quick bunt. Do that a few times, and they'll be forced to play in, making it easier to drive the ball past them. Yet there's something not quite right when Miguel Montero and Augie Ojeda both have as many bunt hits as Upton (two), and more than Reynolds (one).

Also in 'small ball,' the team was dead last in the league for successful sacrifice bunts. This is something which would normally please me - I'm rarely a fan of surrendering outs - except that we were not last in sacrifice attempts. Our success rate was a woeful 66%; no other team in the league came in below 70%. While we're talking a small sample size, particular offenders were Chris Young, Trent Oeltjen and Justin Upton who ended 2009 a combined 5-for-13 in sacrifice attempts, compared to a league average 73% success-rate. Maybe they can take lessons from Dan Haren: he was a perfect 9-for-9, with only four NL players having more attempts and 100% success.

Baseball as a non-contact sport
The Diamondbacks led the league for not making contact with the ball: when they swung at a pitch - 23% of the time they came up empty. The absence of Conor Jackson, who had the team's lowest rate in 2008 (14%), hurt team numbers overall. You probably won't be surprised to find out who supplied much of the Sedona Red breeze this year: Mark Reynolds, who didn't make contact on 39% of swings. Ryan Howard (34%) was the sole other batter in the NL with 250+ PAs to have a miss-rate beyond 30%. Justin Upton and Chris Young were also above average, whiffing 28% of the time.

Interestingly, it doesn't seem to be a poor eye that's the problem. Arizona hitters swung at pitches out of the zone 25.1% of the time, hardly above the league median of 24.5%. They were simply below average at getting wood on horsehide, particularly on pitches in the zone. Again, Reynolds was in a class of his own: he missed 29.1% of the time, when swinging at strikes - the next-highest miss rate there in the National League was Brad Hawpe, down at 22.5%. On the other end of the spectrum, Stephen Drew didn't miss often, particularly at strikes. He made contact 92.9% of the time, though was just pipped by Augie Ojeda's 93.0% figure.

Poll

What position are you most concerned about for 2010?

First base

51 votes

Second base

35 votes

Left field

14 votes

Center field

26 votes

126 votes | Poll has closed

The Good, The Bad, and The Hopeful - A 2009 Retrospective, Part 1

snakecharmer — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 21:56:27 -0000

As fans of the Arizona Diamondbacks, 2009 was – overall – a miserable year. After a disappointing end to 2008, we all had hopes going into Opening Day that this year’s team would do better – it had to do better. The core of the team had returned, the new additions looked promising, and we could only hope that the young players would improve in their second or third years. Unfortunately, it became clear early on that this year’s Arizona Diamondbacks were in for a long and arduous season. The Diamondbacks didn’t win their 10th game until May 1st, and they would never climb out of the hole they had dug for themselves.

In the grand scheme of things, we fans are very lucky. We’re not out on that field struggling, we’re not spending our money trying to improve the team, and we can turn off the television or radio if we so choose. But the press corps that covers the Diamondbacks day in and day out has no such sanctuary. Daron Sutton and Greg Schulte are there for every minute of every game, describing every play, good or bad, for their viewers. Steve Gilbert and Nick Piecoro not only write about every win or loss, but they also go down to the trenches and talk to reluctant players, trying to squeeze out something new and interesting to pass along to the rest of us. They see everything, more than they’re ever able to tell. How do they really feel about the Diamondbacks’ performance this season?

I was very fortunate last week in San Francisco to get a chance to talk with Fox Sports and Diamondbacks television broadcaster Daron Sutton. I emailed some of the same questions to KTAR radio broadcaster Greg Schulte and Arizona Republic beat writer Nick Piecoro for their thoughts as well. (Note: as of this publication, I had not heard back from Piecoro; I hope he will respond in time for Part 2 tomorrow.) What follows is a review of the season from the eyes of these members of the press. This is Part 1 of 2, so be sure to check back tomorrow the remaining half of this story.

Every story has a beginning, and this one starts back in Spring Training. Coming off the 2008 season that saw Arizona lead the NL West for 136 game days – that last of those on September 5th – the Diamondbacks had work to do in Spring. Gone were Gold Glove second basemen Orlando Hudson, soon-to-be-300-game-winner Randy Johnson, closer Brandon Lyon, and bullpen stalwarts Juan Cruz and Brandon Medders. Jon Rauch, Tony Peña and Chad Qualls were expected to play more important roles in the bullpen, helped along by super-veterans Scott Schoeneweis and Tom Gordon. Felipe Lopez was signed to replace Hudson at second, and the combination of free agent Jon Garland and home-grown rookie Max Scherzer rounded out the starting rotation. It was the hope that the return of Eric Byrnes from injury and the continued development of Arizona’s young core would bring the offense back to life.

But even in Spring Training, the bullpen remained a concern. "I think what we all said collectively we were most concerned about heading into the regular season, was the fact that the bullpen wasn’t as shored up as it should be," said Diamondbacks television broadcaster Daron Sutton. Radio broadcaster Greg Schulte pointed out that the bullpen roles were well known. "Chad Qualls moved into the closer’s role, with Tony Pena becoming the setup man, and Jon Rauch moving into the 7th inning role." Even discounting the struggles of Scott Schoeneweiss and the complete non-factor of Tom Gordon, "There was enough experience in the pen to make it solid," Schulte said.

But it never materialized. Brandon Webb’s injury on Opening Day threw an immediate wrench into the pitching staff. Yusmeiro Petit became Webb’s replacement, but Webb’s departure deprived the team of "anywhere from 16 to 24 wins for the season," Sutton pointed out. Tom Gordon’s injuries and Schoeneweis’s off-field tragedy led to the call-ups of rookies such as Clay Zavada and Esmerling Vasquez. Jon Rauch amassed an ERA over 7 over the first two months of the season, and Tony Peña struggled in June and was gone by the All-Star break.

The other piece of the puzzle that was missing early on in the season, and also never really materialized, was the offense. Said Schulte: "After a strong April in '08, the offense fell off considerably, and the Diamondbacks were looking to rebound with the growth of their young hitters." Justin Upton started off the year in one of the most horrendous slumps imaginable. It took eight games to get his first hit, and 18 games until his batting average raised to over .200. Everyone was screaming for his return to the minor leagues, but once he reached that .300 plateau on May 10th, he never looked back. Chris Young, however, was not so fortunate. After falling below .200 on April 30th, he hardly looked up. Conor Jackson, Stephen Drew, and Eric Byrnes all hovered around the .200 line until at least June, but at least Jackson’s problems were (eventually) blamed on Valley Fever.

When asked about underperforming players, Sutton specifically mentioned Drew and Young. "The guy that I expected more from this year was Stephen Drew. I think he spoiled us last year – or did he? If I say he spoiled us, then this is the kind of player he’s supposed to be, this year. I hope he’s better than that." The same goes for Chris Young. "He’s had what he would say was a horrible season. Let’s hope that he is not that player because that’s not good enough. Hitting .230 in the big leagues every day, that’s not good enough. The days of the Gary Pettises in the outfield are long gone. You have to be able to contribute offensively."

On May 7th, the Diamondbacks lost a 1-run game in the 10th inning to San Diego. They came home from a 3-5 road trip sitting 8 ½ games out of first place with a new manager, a new hitting coach and a new pitching coach. Daron Sutton described the hard times. "I learned that when a manager gets fired, it’s really tough on everyone. I’ve never seen a distance, a communication gap, like I saw with the new manager and the current players. It was uncomfortable. The few days of struggles, I understand. We all have people that – they take care of us, now they’re gone, what’s going to happen? What followed for a few weeks after lays at the feet of those players, and only those players." It was a bold and dramatic move, one that the front office had hoped would spark some improvement. Three weeks later, the NL West rival Colorado Rockies did the same thing – and they turned it around. The Rockies were 14 games back when Jim Tracy took over for Clint Hurdle, and Tracy nearly led them to the division title. When asked about the comparison, Sutton said, "Jim Tracy had better and healthier players, and there’s just no doubt about it that they’re having better seasons. Simply put, Troy Tulowitzki this year is much better than Stephen Drew, and their outfield combination of Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez is better than Eric Byrnes/Conor Jackson/Chris Young."

With the Dodgers off to a scalding hot start – they ran an 8- and 7-game winning streak against NL West opponents in April and May – and with the Diamondbacks’ early struggles, it was clear that the team wasn’t going to be contending for the division title. But was there any point at which the team knew that this wasn’t going to be their year? A point at which all post-season hopes went out the window and they just start playing for next year? "I don’t know if there is ever a time when a roster collectively has a meeting and says, all right, we give up," says Sutton, and it would never appear publicly that any team would actually do that. But to him, it seemed like the team reached that point in early June. "The team was almost embarrassing at times in May and June. The worst game of the year for me was the Angels game (on June 28th). It was the worst inning in the worst game of the year. That inning with those errors (5 runs on 3 hits and 3 Diamondback errors in the Angels’ 5th inning) and the dropped balls... that day certainly looked like they had [given up]."

Tune in tomorrow for the second half of this story - the "hopeful" half!