SB Nation - Orlando Hudson

The Juan Pierre era comes to an end

Phil Gurnee — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:15:45 -0000

thus putting the final touches on one of the Ned Colletti's worst deals as the Dodger GM. It is the deal that set many against him before he even got started.

The lightning rod Juan Pierre has probably had the largest effect on the current financial state of the team than any other player. When his first year was complete it was apparent to Ned that he was not the center fielder they envisioned when they gave him that five year deal. So they went out and got what they thought was the answer in center field in Andruw Jones. To say the least that did not pan out either. Pierre was moved to LF to make room for Andruw and he was also found wanting in LF so Ned then went out and completed his best deal when he acquired Manny to play LF and slide Juan into the role of fourth outfielder. While Ned was playing free agent center fielder, the best center fielder turned out to be an internal option whom they finally turned to when Andruw Jones failed.

During his time with the Dodgers, Juan Pierre has been a good Dodger if not the most productive one. For one month he gave us the unforeseen Beast Mode but most of the time he did exactly what he'd always done. He played hard, he stole bases, he ran the bases extremely well, was rarely hurt, hit for some average, didn't get on base at a very high clip, didn't have much of an arm, didn't play center field very well given his speed. He was exactly as advertised, the only problem with that is that he was paid much to much for what he did.

His value has always been right about 1/2 of the contract the Dodgers gave him. The Dodgers will continue to pay for that mistake this year and next but the White Sox will be getting a fairly valued Left Fielder.

I wish Juan Pierre nothing but good will as he can now begin his quest again for 2,000 hits.

The Dodger roster keeps growing with players we are paying to not be Dodgers. WIth the news from Eric that the Dodgers will be paying $7 Million for him to play with the White Sox the Dodgers are now paying $17 Million toward players not on the roster in 2010.

2010: $17,590,000

Juan Pierre: $7,000,000
Andruw Jones: $3,200,000 (deferred salary)
Nomar Garciaparra: $1,125,000 (deferred signing bonus)
Jason Schmidt: $2,625,000 (deferred signing bonus)
Will Ohman: $200,000 (option buyout)
Orlando Hudson: $$1,440,000 (deferred signing bonus)
Randy Wolf: $2,000,000

Possible Players Acquired, with scouting reports by Baseball HQ:

12. Jon Link RHP.....26.....2005 (26) Virginia Commonwealth by San Diego Padres
Team (LG)         W-L ERA    IP  CMD  K/9  oppBA 
==============    === ==== ===== ==== ==== =====  
Charlotte (IL)    1-2 3.99  56.1  2.4 10.5  256
MLE               1-2 5.67  56.1  2.0  9.2  292
Strengths: Plus 88-94 MPH fastball. Hard slider. Changeup. Pitch movement.
Weaknesses: LHH. FB command. Control. Inconsistent slider.
Comments: Powerful reliever has closing experience and could evolve into legitimate late-innings option in Majors. Possesses three average to above average offerings with sinker, SL, and CU. Erratic mechanics and release point hinder control and needs to set up piches better.
2010 MLB Role: Short reliever
Potential Rating: 7B

14. John Ely RHP.....23.....2007 (3) Miami-OH
Team (LG)         W-L ERA    IP  CMD  K/9  oppBA 
==============    === ==== ===== ==== ==== =====  
Birmingham (SL)  14-2 2.82 156.1  2.5  7.2  241
MLE              14-2 3.86 156.1  2.0  6.2  274
Strengths: Plus curveball. 87-92 MPH fastball. Groundballer. Strong frame. Aggressiveness. Deception.
Weaknesses: Changeup. Stiff arm action. Effort in delivery.
Comments: Short and strong pitcher with fringe-average velocity, but keeps hitters off-balance with sinking changeup. Complements moving fastball with plus curveball and mixes pitches well. Commands plate and induces groundballs, but doesn't dominate. Effort in delivery may lead to durability issues.
2010 MLB Role: Middle reliever
Potential Rating: 7C

The State of the Rockies (Post GM Meetings Edition)

Jabberwocky — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:55:40 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Chris Iannetta got his. Will Clint Barmes be next?

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Well, the 2009 Winter Meetings could have gone two ways for the Rockies. One, Dan O'Dowd could have dangled Brad Hawpe, the Rockies could have made overtures to well...anyone of significance. This was unlikely, and did not come to pass. Instead, Rafael Betancourt did the smart thing and accepted arbitration from the Rockies while Jason Marquis made an equally good business decision and declined. The Rockies didn't select anyone in the Rule 5 draft, nor did they have anyone selected. Pretty ho hum to be sure.

However, some significant events did take place regarding the Rockies during the Winter Meetings, giving fans an even clearer picture of the way the roster will shake out. Betancourt's acceptance of arbitration was obviously the most significant, as the Rockies were prepared to bring back LaTroy Hawkins for two years, $7.5 million--a move that for some reason screamed Luiz Vizcaino 2.0 to me--if he had declined. So I'm glad that the Rockies will have an accomplished 8th inning man next year so long as they can fit it into their budget.

As I've said before, if there's a year to spend a little for an extra marginal win or two, it's this one. The NL West crown has never seemed more up for grabs for the Rockies than it appears this year, especially with the Dodgers shuffling through a bizarre offseason, the Giants yet to secure a big bat, and the Padres nickeling and diming their roster. Meanwhile, it was the Diamondbacks who were the big movers of the NL West at the GM meetings in trading away high-upside Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit as part of a three team deal that netted them All-Star pitcher Edwin Jackson as well as Yankees pitcher Ian Kennedy to solidify their rotation for at least 2010. Should Brandon Webb come back strong from surgery, that is one scary rotation developing in Arizona for 2010--and a reason why they will be overrated by about 10 wins in preseason predictions by pundits everywhere. At least, that's my prediction--the Diamondbacks coming in at around 78 wins next year because I'm not sold on their hitting nor their health.

In any case, the Rockies made a move over the winter meetings in locking up Chris Iannetta through his arbitration years (three years, $8.3 million) plus a cheap club option ($5 million) for his first year of free agency. Rob Neyer applauded the move and I agree with him. Love him or like him, this is a solid move for the Rockies, and here's why...

The Rockies are paying Iannetta roughly market value for a player of his stature...if he repeats his 2009 season for four more years. Many people, myself included, seem to believe that Iannetta will perform a bit better than that. Fangraphs' Matt Klaassen projects Iannetta for 2.5 WAR in 2010 (assuming only 100 games played) and explains that he's being paid to be a 1.5 win player this year when you adjust for the fact that the contract is buying out his first arbitration year and not a free agency year. The fans on FanGraphs who have projected Iannetta seem to believe that he will be a 4 WAR player in 2010--which is a little optimistic for me (I see him in the 2.5-3 WAR range next year given adequate playing time), but Iannetta is entering his baseball prime and I wouldn't rule the upper range out.

In return for the security of having a guaranteed paycheck for the next three years (something the soon to be non-tendered Garrett Atkins might be wishing for right now), Iannetta has given up potentially larger arbitration salaries over the next few years--and if he plays as well as Klaassen and myself have predicted he will, CDI will ultimately be a large bargain (to the tune of $30-40 million in net value) for the Rockies over the life of his contract.

The Rockies are busy negotiating multi-year deals with Huston Street and Clint Barmes, but it is unlikely that either of those deals, if signed, will be as team friendly or have a comparable net value (especially in Street's case due to his 3 year, $30 million demands).

The Torrealba Situation

In his Iannetta article, Klaassen bemoaned the handing out of multi-year contracts to aging, marginal at best catchers like Ivan Rodriguez and Jason Kendall. While Yorvit Torrealba is only 31 and has definitely shown that his bat has some life last year, he's far closer to those catchers in value added than he is to Iannetta. Meanwhile, he has seen that Rodriguez got 2 years, $6 million and wants the Rockies to match this number. The Rockies have countered with $5.6 million. Either contract will give Torrealba way more money than he's worth in tangible on the field value. At most he's worth $4 million over two years. At most. Any more is, quite frankly, ludicrous. Just because the market for aging backup catchers who can't hit or field particularly well but can "handle a pitching staff well" has gone crazy doesn't mean that the Rockies need to succumb to it. In all honesty Torrealba should be happy that he has garnered as much interest in his modest skill set as he has.

Look, it's no secret that I'm neither a fan of Torrealba as a player nor am I convinced of the importance (or tangible benefit) of the attributes for which he is valued. So take my advice how you will. But the only way that makes sense to me is to evaluate a player based largely on his quantifiable production (I'm not advocating that this is the correct way to do so, just that it is the way that I do it), and the numbers that I value rate Torrealba at a very low level. He has been an important part of the Rockies' Rocktober runs as an emotional leader and as someone who has produced well in high leverage situations, and for that I thank him sincerely. However, it's just time for both parties to move on.

Free Agency Update

For the Rockies, moving on from Torrealba could land Miguel Olivo, formerly of the Royals, in their laps for a similar 2 year deal. Olivo, who is four days older than Torrealba, is famously lacking in patience (BB rate of 4.6% in 2009) but he does have some pop in his bat (23 HRs) and he did produce 2.2 WAR for the woeful Royals last year. You could call him a Chris Iannetta without patience. Looking at his career numbers, Olivo's 2009 stands out as a clear career year at the plate, so he could be due for some regression that could be mitigated somewhat by moving to the NL and a hitter-friendly park. If he can be had for 2 years, $4-5 million, the Rockies could certainly do worse than Olivo as a back-up.

As for other previous targets, the Winter Meetings saw prospective utilitymen Pedro Feliz and Bobby Crosby got snapped up. Orlando Hudson remains a possibility, albeit one that would only be consummated very late in the offseason at a discounted price. Meanwhile, the Rockies appear to have shied away from several other potential players to fill the Garrett Atkins role. However, there are a few that I haven't gone over yet that have been linked to the Rockies:

Fernando Tatis: The utilityman will be 35 on Opening Day, has been bumming around the majors since 1997 for five teams but has accrued only 7.105 years of service time, a testament to his journeyman status. However, in 2009 Tatis was quite good in part time status, producing 1.5 WAR in 340 PAs with positive value in both hitting and fielding. He can probably be had cheaply (around $2.25 million), can provide depth at several positions, and has demonstrated his ability as a pinch hitter (as Franklin Morales can attest). I'm putting him at the top of my revised wish list.

Melvin Mora: The 37 year old Mora has been at least a league average player as recently as 2008 (and much better than that in the recent past), but does he have anything left in the tank and would he accept a part-time slot? That and his likely $4-5 million asking price is enough to scare me away.

Rob Quinlan: Quinlan is a 32 year old AAAA player who has spent parts of the last seven years with the Angels as a reserve corner infielder. At this point it's clear to me that he's pretty much a replacement player and I wouldn't advocate signing him to a major league deal.

The Rockies have talked with Jose Contreras about him returning, though the Rockies want to pay him as a reliever while Contreras wants starter money. Quite frankly, he should be paid as a starter given his FIP (4.11) last year. Colorado has also approached Jason Giambi about returning to fill Atkins' spot, though he is searching for a DH job that will give him more PAs next year. If Giambi does become available, having his bat on the bench definitely provides the Rockies with an intimidating edge for opposing managers to worry about.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

There has been some discussion by some that I've projected Betancourt's arbitration award too high at $6.4 million, and they do certainly have a point. Betancourt does not measure up well in saves, the traditional reliever stat valued highly by arbitrators, and the Darren Oliver case that I've cited in projecting Betancourt's salary does seem like an outlier. In any case, when I was projecting Betancourt's salary (indeed, any salary in this projection) I have been erring on the high side, being conservative on the amount of money the Rockies have to spend.

For this projection, I'm going to switch gears a little bit and reduce Betancourt's salary to that of his $5 million option that the Rockies declined. Plus, I'm adding Iannetta's salary (represented as $2 million, which is what I've heard) into the players under contract category. Outside of the Rockies selling the rights of OF Matt Murton to Japan's Hanshin Tigers, the Rockies made no 40 man roster moves at the Winter Meetings--and since Murton wasn't projected to be on the 25 man roster not much has changed on that front (though the Rockies do now have three open 40 man roster slots).

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$2,000,000	$6,300,000	2

Total		$51,558,000	$78,583,000

Pre-Arbitration Players: While I'm still projecting Phillips as the back-up catcher for now, I'm not holding my breath on that one and am expecting an expenditure of roughly $2.7 million in 2010 on the back-up catcher's roster spot.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players: With the subtraction of Iannetta from the ranks of the arbitration eligible, the Rockies now have seven potential arbitration cases this winter counting Betancourt.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$5,000,000	50%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$27,470,060	136.29%

Grand Total Payroll: $82,352,900

Remember, this roster has only 24 players on it (with Buchholz starting the year on the DL)--it still requires a replacement for Garrett Atkins. In other words, it will likely end up around $84.5 million--by far the highest in Rockies history. The increase from last week's projection is due to the fact that Iannetta's salary increased by larger than the 350% I had projected (actually it is a 482% raise from 2009).

Well, that's it until next time (TBD). I'd love to hear any and all thoughts, Rowbots--just please try to keep it civil.

Poll

Who would you rather have as the backup catcher for the Rockies in 2010?

Washington Nationals: Winter Meetings Wrap.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:28:33 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo found the catcher he wanted at the Winter Meetings, now the Nationals need to add some pitching. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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Before the Winter Meetings, the Washington Nationals made clear that they did not think it was absolutely essential that they add the pitching help they need from the top of the free agent class or within the three-day span of the Indianapolis Winter Meetings, as DC GM Mike Rizzo explained to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, who wrote in a 12/2/09 article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", that fans shouldn't, "...look for the the Nationals to attempt to break the bank," in pursuit of free agent help, as they did last Winter in their pursuit of Mark Teixeira, who we've been told, time and again, was seen as a once-in-a-generation talent, but instead should accept the fact that it's more, "...likely that Rizzo will make trades."

(cont.)...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST.

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

BACKPAGE:

• The LIST as the DC Faithful are calling it, (ed. note - "No one is calling it that."), that Rizzo gave to Washington Post writer Chico Harlan for an article entitled, "Reading Material, Shopping Lists", of pitchers that the Nationals were interested in this winter, started with 14 names, but as the Winter Meetings officially end following tomorrow's Rule 5 Draft, the list has been shortened some, from, "Jason Marquis, Randy Wolf, John Lackey, Cliff Lee, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Tim Hudson, Brad Penny, Joel Piñeiro, Braden Looper, Jarrod Washburn, Brandon Webb, Brett Myers, John Smoltz and more..." to, as the Post's Chico Harlan wrote in two Nationals Journal posts entitled, "The starting pitching shopping list", and "The starting pitching, Pt. II":

"(Jon Garland and)...almost every established free agent starting pitcher except the A-lister, John Lackey. So, the Nats would entertain the possibility of Jarrod Washburn, Joel Pineiro, Vicente Padilla, Jason Marquis, and John Smoltz."

• Oh...AND LIVAN HERNANDEZ!

After Washington Post writer Dave Sheinin wrote about Elijah Dukes' winter, he added a note to the end of an article entitled, "Nationals notes: Dukes, L. Hernandez", about the Washington Nationals making contract with the agent for Mr. National Himself, Livan Hernandez, the original Nationals' Ace, who has openly expressed his desire to return to the nation's capital since the end of the '09 season. Mr. Sheinin writes that Hernandez's agent, "(Barry) Praver would not characterize the talks", but in the Washington Post writer's opinion it would take, "...a one-year contract with a low base and ample performance incentives."

-- (ed. note - "Do you want to see Livan Hernandez return to the Nationals? From what I've read in the comments, it's pretty much split amongst the DC Faithful...Should the Nationals let Livan teach Strasburg the eephus?")

• Guzman To Second, Desmond At Short?

MLB.com's Bill Ladson was Twittering throughout the Winter Meetings, letting Nationals' fans know what was going on long before it went into print (as were the Washington Times' writers), and the biggest revelation out of the final day in Indianapolis was that the Nationals had made up their minds about what to do with their twenty-ten middle infield:

"It appears the Nats will take a chance with Cristian Guzman at second base. That means Orlando Hudson is not coming to DC."

Does that mean that Ian Desmond is officially a "Go!" at short? Are the Nationals still going to try to find another option at short?

• Bally To The Bullpen? WT...

The other interesting thing that MLB.com's Bill Ladson Twittered was the idea that:

"The Nats may rely on some of their youngsters in the bullpen. Luis Atilano, Collin Balester and Craig Stammen are candidates."

As the Nationals' system produces more pitching, some of the older starters who haven't established themselves are going to have to make the move to the pen to make room for the next wave of pitchers. Is Balester on that list in your mind? (ed. note - "Not mine.")...What about J.D. Martin? Shairon Martis? Atilano? Stammen? Ross Detwiler? Is this Washington's way of saying why sign relievers when we have all these arms under contract?

My Dreams Come True: Mets Pursuing 2B Adam Kennedy

Sam Page — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:59:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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From Rosenthal:

The Mets and Diamondbacks are the teams showing the most interest in free agent Adam Kennedy, major-league sources say, viewing him as a potential starter at second base.

The Mets, if they traded Luis Castillo, could sign Kennedy as a less expensive option than Orlando Hudson. The Diamondbacks, who traded Felipe Lopez to the Brewers last July, also are looking for help at second.

Kennedy is a big favorite of mine. He plays a great 2B (8.2 career UZR/150), and would be a huge boon to our defense and a good complement to a Joel Piniero signing. A career .317 wOBA hitter, Kennedy hit .337 (wOBA) last year. I bet the Mets (and the market) think Orlando Hudson is the better player, but that's arguably not true.

Winter Meetings Primer, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Jennifer Simonson - AP

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Sure, it's a rumor-filled week that generally leads to nothing. But it's still a rumor-filled week, and to me that equals fun.

Twins Needs

Second Base
Third Base
Starting Pitcher
Bench Depth
Joe Mauer Extension

Between LEN III and Joe C., the Twins have been tied to a few names already this off-season: Mark DeRosa, Rich Harden, Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn and Orlando Hudson. There has been little speculation fueled by comments from the front office, although this has been commonplace during the Bill Smith era. Now entering his third Winter Meetings and in the best position to win since taking on the role of General Manager, it will be interesting to see if the rumors lead to anything concrete this season.

Obviously the Twins are still in the market for at least one infielder after picking up J.J. Hardy a few weeks ago, and the recent (and early) signings of Chone Figgins (four years, $36 million), Placido Polanco (three years, $18 million) and Marco Scutaro (two years, $12.5 million with an option for more) seem to set the market for starting infielders. Considering the combination of age and history I feel like all three teams overpaid, on either years or dollars or both.

Last season at this time there was a lot of talk surrounding Casey Blake and Garrett Atkins, and there's been nothing quite like that this season. This front office, and I've said it before, plays things notoriously close to the vest. Sure, it might not make for interesting discussion fodder, but it serves the best interests of the team.

A vast majority of the time all of the rumors and speculation lead to absolutely nothing during the week of the Winter Meetings. The common theme is for teams to read each other and, if possible, lay a foundation for things to happen over the following weeks. But that doesn't mean we won't hear some interesting tidbits over the next few days.

Names of Interest (after the break)

Adrian Beltre - With the Phillies signing Polanco, one of the Twins main competetors for the free agent third baseman may have just taken themselves out of the market. The biggest issue surrounding Beltre is Scott Boraas and his $10 million per year asking price. Even for his glove, I'm not sure Minnesota is going to fork out that kind of money for Beltre.

Mark DeRosa - He's also been rumored to be asking for nearly $10 million per season. Yikes.

Josh Johnson - The Marlins have said that Johnson won't be traded this off-season, but it's always hard to tell what's truth and what's posturing. If his name comes up this week, or at anytime over the next couple of months, I'll be listening.

Rich Harden - Along with Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, it will be interesting to see how much teams are willing to gamble on these guys. Will the Twins maintain their interest in Harden?

Jed Lowrie - With the Red Sox the proud owners of a Scutaro, will he be on the block?

Carl Pavano - Will he accept arbitration?

Dan Uggla - The Marlins second baseman has been linked to about half of the teams in baseball at some point over the last couple of months, although no team has been connected more often than the Giants. His offense as a second baseman is superior, and in spite of his defense is still probably a three-win player.

In Closing

The Winter Meetings this season aren't set to be quite as interesting as they were the last couple of seasons, if only because the first thing on everyone's mind isn't really who else the front office can bring in but who can they sign to an extension. "General discussions" between the Twins and Mauer have begun, but nothing hard core so far, so stay tuned.

It's an exciting time of year. Be sure to keep checking back here for the latest rumblings and grumblings.

Poll

Make the call: what, if anything, will happen this week at the Winter Meetings for the Minnesota Twins?

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

Saturday Rockpile: The stove is heating up as the Rockies begin to show interest in Free Agents

theoldgrizzlybear — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 16:48:30 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Could the O-Dog be in the Rockies' plans for 2010?

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Rockies show interest in Hudson, hope Betancourt accepts arbitration - Fox Sports on MSN
Although the Rox would net two draft picks and avoid paying $6 million for one year of an aging reliever, they still hope that Rafael Betancourt accepts their arbitration offer. His situation on the market may force him to do just that.

Tracy Ringolsby also reports that the Rockies have began to show interest in free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. I recall this being something that a lot of fans wished the Rockies paid attention to last offseason. However, to me it sounds like a good move this year as well, rather than it being a year too late. Hudson, 32, just finished a nice season for the Dodgers and could help the Rockies alleviate their need for a right-handed bench bat by simply inserting O-Dog into the starting lineup and using Clint Barmes in the bench/super-utility role. On top of all of that, Hudson wasn't offered arbitration by LA, so signing him will not require draft compensation. This all could be one big moot point, though, as Dan O'Dowd has denied seriously pursuing Hudson.

Rox could shift to Hawkins if Betancourt departs, while keeping an eye on Duchsherer and DeRosa - The Denver Post
In the event that Raffy B does not accept arbitration and decides to bolt for another club, Troy E. Renck says the Rockies have been open about the fact that they would love to bring back LaTroy Hawkins. Hawkins has had a good past few years pitching out of the bullpen for the Astros and Rockies and still throws very hard and has good stuff (although his walk totals are still a bit high), especially for his age. It sounds like the Rockies will definitely be bringing one of these guys back, though, as it could be as late as the middle of 2010 when we'll see Taylor Buchholz return.

Meanwhile, Justin Duchscherer has become a top target for the Rox as well. If he can get past his physical and mental health issues, Duchscherer has proven to be a solid big league starter and would be a good fit to the back of anybody's rotation. Also, Renck mentions that the Rockies have expressed interest in Mark DeRosa, who hits lefties well and could be another option to fill the right-handed void that the Rockies have amongst position players.

Dodgers Farm System Among Lower Half Of MLB, Per Baseball America

Eric Stephen — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:47:40 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Andrew Lambo will likely make an appearance tomorrow in the top ten Dodger prospects per Baseball America

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Baseball America will announce their choices for the top ten prospects of the Dodgers tomorrow, and I'm sure Phil Gurnee will have plenty to say about that, but in the meantime editor in chief John Manuel gave a glimpse to Sports illustrated as to how each franchise stacked up. Outside of the top five and bottom five farm systems, the other franchises were split into two groups.

The Dodgers were lumped in the 16-25 category, with the following quote from Manuel:

L.A. has spent less on draft picks the last two years than any club, and it shows.

The Dodgers' success the last few years has been fueled largely by their own homegrown talent, and it is understandable that their ranking would drop given all the prospects who have graduated to the big leagues. Still, I can't help but wonder how much better the system might look if it had...

Likely Indians' top prospect Carlos Santana, sent to Cleveland in lieu of a lesser prospect in order to pay roughly $2 million of Casey Blake's remaining 2008 salary
Unsigned 2006 draftee Alex White, who went to college instead and became a first round pick of the Indians in 2009
Unsigned 2007 draftee Kyle Blair, who also went to college and will likely be a first round pick in 2010

Well, at least the Dodgers have four extra picks in the 2010 draft to replenish the system as a result of offering arbitration to Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson. Oh wait...

Why moving Pedroia to shortstop just makes sense

ltrain2 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:00:46 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels' Howie Kendrick steals second as Boston Red Sox's second baseman Dustin Pedroia looks to the umpire in the seventh inning in Game 2 of the American League division baseball series Friday, Oct. 9, 2009 in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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There has been an enormous amount of speculation surrounding the Red Sox's plans on how to best address the void at the shortstop position in recent days, a void that has been plaguing them since the dramatic downfall of the once iconic Red Sox, Nomar Garciaparra.

Early this off-season, much of the rumors pointed towards the seemingly inevitable signing of free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro to take over the middle infield duties alongside Dustin Pedroia. With such a shallow pool of available shortstops at the moment via free agency, Scutaro, who is coming off a career season with the Blue Jays (.282/.379/.409), has quickly become regarded as the most highly sought after player at his position this off-season. I, myself, am not buying into Scutaro being the answer that the Red Sox are searching for, and apparently I'm not alone in this thinking. Forget the fact that Scutaro, prior to 2009, was a career sub .260 hitter with a fielding percentage of .977 at the shortstop position. The fact of the matter is that the former Blue Jays shortstop, recently turning 34 years of age, had posted mediocre numbers in the seasons prior to last and appears to be yet another beneficiary of a career season entering free agency. Scutaro's 2009 numbers, in comparison to his career totals, look eerily similar to those of Julio Lugo circa 2006 in the same regard. A 2006 season that prompted the Red Sox to sign Lugo to a lucrative deal that benefited only Julio's bank statement.

Assuming that the thought of signing another Lugo-type shortstop caused Boston's front office to collectively shiver in disgust, Theo and Co. seem to be attempting to get creative in the way that they go about attacking this whole shortstop epidemic.

Enter Dustin Pedroia.

Recently, reports have surfaced suggesting that the Red Sox brass has approached the diminutive second baseman with the idea of moving him back to his collegiate position, that being shortstop. Casual baseball observers may not be familiar with the prowess displayed by Pedroia during his time manning shortstop for the Arizona State Sun Devils. After beating out Ian Kinsler for the starting spot at ASU, ultimately forcing the future Rangers' star to transfer to Missouri, Pedroia went on to accrue All-American honors at the position. After being drafted, Pedroia turned in 42 errorless games at shortstop in the minor leagues before being moved to second base to make room for Hanley Ramirez. The former rookie of the year even still takes ground balls at shortstop during the season. Pedroia himself is not only welcome to the position swap, he has actually done a bit of lobbying for the change through the media. Pedroia was quoted as telling ESPN's Peter Gammons:

"They've asked me if I think I could play shortstop, they've put it out there, and I've told them I'm all for it. I can do it. I can't wait for [Terry Francona] to call me and ask, 'Can you do it?' I can do it. I really want to do it."

Reading that particular quote is interesting to say the least. It seems as though Pedroia begins his verbal thought process restraining his eagerness to attempt the transition. However, by the end of it, Pedroia comes off sort of giddy, almost as though he wanted to end the interview on the spot and force Gammons to accompany him to the nearest baseball diamond for infield practice. The fact remains that Pedroia can accomplish such a transition, and as you just read, he'll be the first to inform you of that.

However, the benefits of a move such as this go beyond simply filling the hole at shortstop. By doing so internally with an already proven commodity (without having to reach into their pockets), this allows the Red Sox to then shift their focus on nabbing one of the available free agent second baseman, a market significantly deeper than that of the its shortstop counterpart. What this does is create more, potentially cheaper, options for the Red Sox.

Rather than being presented with a 34 year-old Marco Scutaro as the most attractive middle infield acquisition option, the Red Sox now have the choice between Orlando Hudson and Placido Polanco. Not to mention reports that the Marlins and Reds have made Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips, respectively, available to potential suitors. For the sake of comparison, let's single out Brandon Phillips from that bunch (I choose him because to me, he is the most appealing option from the previously mentioned group of second baseman). As stated earlier, Scutaro, six years older than Phillips, experienced a career season in 2009. Phillips on the other hand, had by his standards, just a solid season a year ago. While most of Scutaro's numbers were career highs, Phillips had a season pretty consistent to that of his 2006, 2007, and 2008 campaigns. That being said, here are the statistics:

2009 Season                 BA    OBP    SLG     R        H     2B    3B    HR    RBI    SB    FPCT

Brandon Phillips         .276   .329    .447    78     161    30     5      20      98     25    .988

Marco Scutaro            .282   .379   . 409    100   162    35     1      12      60     14     .984

At first glance, you wouldn't be wrong in pointing out that these are relatively similar numbers. However, aside from having a slight edge in OBP and runs scored, Phillips is the smart play here. Not only has the younger Phillips shown more consistency the past four seasons and offers a significant advantage in the power game, he also represents a threat on the base paths, a characteristic that the Red Sox have come to hold in high regard in recent years.

The question then becomes whether the Red Sox would be better off signing Marco Scutaro or putting together a deal to acquire Brandon Phillips. Both come with their own aspects of negativity. In signing Scutaro, a Type-A free agent, the Red Sox would be forced to surrender compensatory draft selections to Toronto. While on the other hand, assuming that the Reds are shopping Phillips in an effort to cut down on salary commitments, the Red Sox will likely have to surrender a package of prospects to Cincinnatti in order to pry Phillips from the Reds.

In my opinion, the Red Sox's most intelligent move would be to, in fact, shift Pedroia to shortstop and make a move on Brandon Phillips. Phillips, assuming no restructuring would be done to his contract prior to arrival, would be under contract through 2011 commanding around $19 million during that span. If not Phillips, I'd say it's hard to argue against the general idea of at least moving Pedroia over to shortstop in an effort to expand Boston's free agent options, regardless of who they would eventually sign from that group.

If Pedroia is more than willing, and judging by his comments I think it's safe to say that he is, to make the move then I don't see any reason not to explore this option more in depth. Not only does it create more options for Boston via free agency, but it will also finally put a stop to the seemingly neverending search for a reliable and impactful starting shortstop from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. I think I speak for all Red Sox fans when I say that this would be a welcome change from what we've reluctantly grown accustomed to.

Poll

Of the players mentioned in this article, who do you want to see acquired by the Red Sox this off-season?

Washington Nationals: Winter Rumor Roundup.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 10:24:24 -0000

by J Pat Carter - AP

MLB.com's Bill Ladson's "baseball sources" think the Nationals might be targeting Marlins' right-handed starter Ricky Nolasco (pictured above). (AP Photo/J Pat Carter)

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The Nationals Step Back From The Warming Hot Stove...

After offering both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano arbitration yesterday, the Atlanta Braves have apparently signed left-handed closer Billy Wagner to what FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal reported Tuesday night, in an article entitled, "Source: Braves, closer Wagner agree to deal", is a, "...one-year, $7 million contract with a vesting option for a second season." Mr. Rosenthal's "major-league source" also says that though either Gonzalez and Soriano, "...could accept one-year, non-guaranteed," deals to stay in Atlanta, "...both are drawing strong multi-year interest from other clubs."

MLB.com's Bill Ladson, in an article entitled, "Pitching the focus for Nats at Meetings", writes that the Nationals are probably not one of the teams expressing "multi-year interest" in either Gonzalez or Soriano, noting that fans shouldn't expect Washington to "...break the bank like they tried to do with first baseman Mark Teixeira during last year's Winter Meetings," :

"It's likely that Rizzo will make trades. So signing starter John Lackey or relievers Billy Wagner or Mike Gonzalez seem unlikely, unless they agree to a deal in Washington's price range."

Mr. Ladson quotes the DC GM explaining the Nationals' approach this winter, as he says:

"'We don't think that the free-agent class leads us to [pay big money],' Rizzo said. 'I believe the things we need or want the most are out there, and we are going to address it.'"

Though he doesn't mention the names of any relievers the Nationals could potentially trade for, according to Mr. Ladson's "baseball sources", adding a veteran starter to the Nationals' rotation is still a priority, and, "...the Nats have interest in Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco," a soon-to-be 27-year-old right-hander who is a combined (28-17) in the last two seasons, having collected 381 K's in 397.1 IP for Florida.

Mr. Ladson also writes in his article that, "As of now, it appears Washington will go into next season with Ian Desmond as its starting shortstop." FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi in their article entitled, "Latest buzz from the MLB offseason", write that Orlando Cabrera could have a tough time finding a new home this winter, identifying the Nationals as one of three teams, (along with the Tigers and Reds), who have interest in acquiring a SS, but, "...probably do not view (Cabrera) as an upgrade." Mr.'s Rosenthal and Morosi do note, however, that Orlando Hudson, whose name has surfaced several times in the last few years in connection with Washington, was not offered salary arbitration by the LA Dodgers, and thus, could be signed without the team that inks him losing compensatory draft picks...

The Nationals declined to offer any of their free agents arbitration, announcing on Tuesday, as reported in MLB.com's Bill Ladson's article entitled, "Nats elect to not offer arbitration", that it most likely means the end of Josh Bard, Livan Hernandez, Austin Kearns and Dmitri Young's time in DC, though he does mention that left-handed reliever Ron Villone, "...is arguably the only free agent who has a chance of coming back to the organization."