SB Nation - Conor Jackson

2010 in Arizona: First-base

Jim McLennan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:52:11 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

The Panda dives back to first, as a pick-off throw "bamboo-zles" Tracy and "shoots" past him during an April game in Phoenix.

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I'm pleased to report my digestive system is no longer participating in a Michael Bay remake of Krakatoa, East of Java. That's probably for the best, since our first-base situation is enough by itself to make me feel queasy. The past season was like the noted Abbott and Costello sketch for Diamondbacks fans: don't like who's starting first-base today? Come back tomorrow, you'll probably be happier. While we didn't quite have the most number of players at the position in the majors [the Cardinals used nine, though that was mostly LaRussa's late-inning shuffling: Phat Albert started at 1B 157 times], it certainly was the most unstable position on the field for Arizona, with seven different names appearing in the starting line-up.

This continues a decade-long trend: not since our inaugural season in 1998, has the same player started even 130 games at first-base, and in the past two seasons, the highs have been just 67 and 57 starts, by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy respectively. [Today's trivia: name the most-frequent 1B for Arizona each season. Answer at the end of the article] After the jump, we'll take a look at what happened in 2010, and see whether there's hope for things to be any more stable in the upcoming season.

2009 Performance
1. Chad Tracy - 56 starts .237/.306/.389
2. Brandon Allen - 29 starts .202/.284/.385
3. Josh Whitesell - 28 starts .194/.346/.287
4. Mark Reynolds - 24 starts .260/.349/.543
5. Tony Clark - 14 starts .182/.295/.424

It's hard to say how much the numbers above are skewed by the absence of Conor Jackson. He had been a regular there in the previous three seasons, but his shift to left-field would likely have continued last season, given the ongoing failings of Eric Byrnes. However, his absence for the bulk of the season made the dearth of alternatives for Arizona at the position all the more apparent. Overall, first-base produced a line of .228/.321/.396, an OPS of just .717, dead-last in the National League.

Initially, it was Tony Clark and Chad Tracy who split time at the position, but Josh Whitesell was called up just before the managerial switch in early May. Much was expected of him, having hit .328 with 26 homers the previous year in Tucson, but he proved to be a damp squib. Though not helped by a freakishly-low BABIP, he hit only .107 in May and struggled to get his BA above the Uecker line the rest of the way. Some attempts to play Reynolds at first were made: though effective offensively (he hit .323 there), his defense was poor, and the experiment was all but abandoned after the All-Star break

Brandon Allen, acquired from the White Sox in the Tony Peña trade, was the final great hope, getting the bulk of the starts after the middle of August. However, despite similarly-impressive numbers at Triple-A to Whitesell, he struggled equally as much against major-league pitching - left-handers, in particular, gave both prospects fits. This, and a poor performance by Allen in the Arizona Fall League, meant that the Diamondbacks ended the season with just as big a question-mark at first-base as they'd had at any point in the year.

Top Free Agents
Name	Age	2009 Sal.	2009 OPS+
Russell Branyan	34	$1.4m	128
Nick Johnson	32	$5.5m	122
Adam LaRoche	30	$7.05m	122
Hank Blalock	29	$6.2m	86
Carlos Delgado	37	$12m	141
Chance of AZ free-agent activity: high.

2010 Depth-chart and Projections

Brandon Allen - .247/.309/.427
Conor Jackson - .266/.342/.425
~~Josh Whitesell - .238/.341/.385~~

We've already seen, courtesy of the Snyder-Overbay talks, that Arizona are not happy with the current candidates for first-base next season. As a result, it seems likely that they will spend some, albeit a minority, of their war-chest (currently estimated at between $10-14 million) on acquiring a more experienced bat at this position - probably one that can deal with left-handed pitching better than Allen or Whitesell have shown themselves to date. Fernando Tatis is an interesting name recently suggested there by Reynolds rapper, who could offer some position flexibility. The alternative at the moment would be to bring Jackson back from left-field to play the position against LHP - I note that he split his time in the Dominican Winter League between the two positions.

However, this decision would pose a couple of problems in turn. Jackson's defense at 1B is notably worse than in RF, and we'd then also be faced with the job of replacing CoJack in left. The most likely candidates there are Gerardo Parra, who is simlarly vexed by left-handers, and Eric Byrnes, who may not even be with the club. I would rather see Jackson left in left (as it were...) and the team go after someone who can platoon with Allen at 1B. That said, the names available as free agents all have issues of one kind or another e.g. Johnson's injury issues, Branyan would be another left-hander, and my assessment of likely activity as "high" also includes the chances of activitiy not directly involving the signing of a free-agent.

The major trading-chip in this area remains Chris Snyder, and I still think the team will look to move him between now and Opening Day. Even if this is not directly for a first-baseman, the salary relief we'd obtain as a result means we can perhaps then take on a player earning more than we could perhaps otherwise afford (whether at first or another spot, such as in the rotation). As a starting point, the six teams to get the lowest 2009 OPS from their catchers were (in descending order): Milwaukee, Houston, Seattle, Toronto, Tampa, Detroit. Might be a good starting point for shopping Snyder.

We will be interested to follow the development of Allen and Whitesell in 2010 - particularly the former, since it's worth remembering, despite his struggles, that he will still be 23 until February. Only 16 position players in the National League that age or younger got 100 PAs last season [three in AZ, who also had Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra], so there should be no rush to judgement. Allen's playing time will likely be determined both by subsequent moves, and how his own splits develop. If he can learn to hit left-handed pitching, and his overall numbers approach those he posted in the minors, he should be primed for the starting spot in 2011. Those are both mighty-big "ifs", however.

[Update] Josh Whitesell was non-tendered and as a result became a free-agent. The Diamondbacks apparently even tried to sell Whitesell to Japan, but had no luck there; it's clear that Arizona saw no potential of him helping the team in the foreseeable future.

[Trivia answer. Here are the most-frequent starters at 1B each season for Arizona. 1998-99, Travis Lee; 2000, Greg Colbrunn; 2001-02, Mark Grace; 2003, Lyle Overbay; 2004, Shea Hillenbrand; 2005, Chad Tracy; 2006-08, Conor Jackson; 2009, Tracy]

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part VII: Base-running

Jim McLennan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:00:14 -0000

by Rick Scuteri - AP

Upton is caught stealing third base Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche during a game on July 23.

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After a couple of weeks off, we get to the final part of the 2009 season review, while we look at the Diamondbacks' performance on the base-paths. This doesn't just cover the straight stolen-base, though this is the most immediately obvious component of base-running. There's also factors like going from first to third on a single: not quite as flashy as the swiped bag, but still an extra 90 feet you otherwise wouldn't have.

After the jump, we'll break down a few numbers, and see where the Arizona Diamondbacks stacked up against the rest of their National League rivals. For each category, we'll also take a look at the individual numbers, and see who the heroes and villains were for the team. But let's start, as you might expect, with a nice table of data:

Tm	SB	CS	SB%	PO	OOB	BT	XBT%
ARI	102	40	72%	22	60	131	42%
ATL	58	26	69%	15	50	121	38%
CHC	56	34	62%	11	46	120	36%
CIN	96	40	71%	18	63	125	41%
COL	106	55	66%	26	75	186	47%
FLA	75	35	68%	17	62	172	38%
HOU	113	44	72%	9	47	118	38%
LAD	116	48	71%	26	56	154	44%
MIL	68	37	65%	14	47	154	34%
NYM	122	44	73%	16	69	169	40%
PHI	119	28	81%	21	44	122	39%
PIT	90	32	74%	18	64	136	38%
SDP	82	29	74%	20	52	119	38%
SFG	78	28	74%	11	47	159	38%
STL	75	31	71%	19	54	138	44%
WSN	73	40	65%	17	45	131	39%
LgAvg	89	37	71%	18	55	141	39%

Stolen bases
Arizona stole a total of 102 bases, and were caught stealing forty times - the former number is good enough for sixth in the league, and their success rate of 72% was fractionally better than NL average (71%). However, this conceals a significant difference with regard to stealing second- and third-base. For the former, we had a solid 74% success-rate (NL avg: 71%), but when trying to take third, we were only 18-for-28, a 64% rate. League average, perhaps surprisingly, increased to 73% - I say surprisingly, because it's generally thought of as a harder job, because the catcher has less distance to cover with his throw to third.

Chris Young was, far and away, the best on the team at taking third, being successful on six out of seven attempts. He was actually less successful when taking second, where he was safe on only five of eight attempts. Gerardo Parra showed reversed numbers too, with more good steals of third (3-of-4) than second (2-of-8) by him. Conversely, from the 2009 numbers, Mark Reynolds should be nailed to second-base: while he was great at reaching it from first (22-5, for a 81% rate), he failed on four out of six attempt to get from there to third. Justin Upton had the best numbers on the team going to second, of anyone with more than two attempts, at 84%.

And for the record, the Diamondbacks were credited with one attempted steal of home. By Kevin Mulvey. Though as you can probably guess, describing it as a "steal" is a bit generous: our pitcher was caught day-dreaming at third-base against the Giants on September 30th, got himself picked off and involved in a brief rundown before retreating, sheepishly, to the dugout.

Pickoffs
Definitely an area in which the team needs to improve, though we're hardly alone in the division - four of the top five teams for having pickoffs inflicted on them, play in the NL West. The Diamondbacks' total of 22 trailed only the Dodgers and Rockies (tied with 26), and straight pickoffs - rather than those where the runner was caught trying to steal - were responsible for the bulk of those in Arizona, fourteen. There aren't any numbers available to show how these break down by base: while I've a feeling we were particular bad at getting ourselves picked off second, this is only my anecdotal hunch.

No doubt who should be looking to work on this in the off-season. Mark Reynolds led the team with seven pickoffs, more than twice as much as anyone else, and good enough for third in the entire National League (trailing Nyjer Morgan and an ex-Diamondbacks, Emilio Bonifacio, who had nine and eight respectively). Five of Reynolds' erasures were straight pickoffs, and two were in the process of stealing a base. Young and Upton were next, albeit all the way back on three, and that's probably no surprise: age and experience are likely significant factors here.

Taking the extra base
We should look at this in conjuction with the total number of outs made on the basepaths: this might be while trying to advance on a sacrifice fly, a passed ball/wild-pitch or doubled-off on a line-drive [basically, any out not covered in the two sections above]. In total, the team took 131 bases and made 60 outs, a ratio of 2.18, which is below the league average, 2.56. However, the team were more aggressive than most teams, taking an extra base e.g. going from first-to-third on a single, 42% of the time, good for fourth in the National League.

I was astonished to find that the man who led the team in stolen bases, Mark Reynolds, was actually among the most conservative on the team, with an extra base percentage of only 30%. Some of this may be small sample-size - we are discussing only 43 opportunities over the entire season - but I'd certainly not have expected him to be below Miguel Montero (a healthy 44%). Best on the team was Ryan Roberts, who posted a 56% rate in 34 chances. Upton and Young are also looking good, at 50% and 49%. In limited playing-time, Conor Jackson was 5-of-7: be interesting to see how the Dominican Winter League SB leader performs on the base-paths in 2010.

We can break the overal "extra base" number down, into the three situations where taking an extra base is possible: on first when a single is hit (we'll call this 1S); on first when a double is hit (1D); and on second when a single is hit (2S). In all other situations, the batter should score in almost every circumstance. Now, this doesn't take into account location of the hit - some singles will be a great deal easier to score from second on than others [such as when Upton hits a single 420 feet off the wall...], but over the course of a season, things should tend to even out.

Here are the percentages for Arizona compared to NL average. 1S: 29%/27%. 1D: 46%/44%. 2S: 64%/58%. This does tend to suggest that we were more aggressive than most in each situation, but particularly when going from second to home on a single. Given the youth of our roster, this would seem to make logical sense. However, I am not going to split these down into individual performances, because we are really getting down to the level where random chance makes it hard to draw any conclusions: no-one had more than 26 chances in any of the categories.

EqBRR
This stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a Baseball Prospectus stat that "measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table." It's the sum of various components: Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR), each reflecting a different aspect of the base-running game.

All told, the team ranked 21st in the majors, with an EqBRR of -6.8 runs. Most of this came from EqSBR, which was responsible for -6.36 of those runs. Breaking the numbers down to individuals, the top three were Upton (+3.2), Roberts (+1.7) and Jackson (+1.7) - again, be interesting to see how the last-named holds up, if he can come back fully healthy in 2010. Down at the other end of the spectrum, the worst trio were Chris Young (-2.1), Chris Snyder (-2.3) and Mark Reynolds, who was rated at -4.5, no doubt in part because of all the pickoffs.

Overall
From a statistical point of view, base-running is a relatively minor component of the game, compared to pitching or hitting. But it's also one over which a team has much more control - while pure speed is a talent, the ability to use it is a skill which can be taught. However, above and beyond the direct impact of good (or bad) base-running, I tend to think it can also have a contribution to "intangibles." Successful fundamental baseball provides a psychological boost, both to the player responsible and their team-mates, just as it does to us as fans watching; conversely, few things can suck the wind out of your sails worse than a blunder between the bags.

As such, while some aspects of the team's work in 2009 were credible, there is certainly room for improvement, especially in the pick-off department. Aggressive (but not to the point of psychotic) base-running should continue, but I'd like to see even more use being made of those fresh legs. Young, Reynolds and Upton are all capable of putting up 25 steals next season, and Jackson may not be too far behind, if his DWL performance is anything to go by. Add in a few more bunt hits, for we have a number of speed/power guys who should be taking advantage of infields that have to play back against them, and it's an area that I hope to see become a strength of the team in 2010.

Astros Pitchin' in the Dominican: Life's a Beach

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:15:20 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

I'm going to go ahead and call it: If Wesley Wright becomes a starter, he will become my favorite Astro.

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Although the Arizona Fall League finished up play this past Saturday, there is still professional-ish baseball going in the world. Take the Caribbean Leagues, for instance. Much like the AFL, the four nations which comprise the CWL (Venezuela, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Mexico) play host to a myriad of baseball talent- ranging from established major leaguers like Conor Jackson, to familiar faces who are hoping against hope for one more shot. There are no Strasburgs, Ackleys or Castros (Jason or Starlin), but there are stories worth following especially for Astros fans.

While the Astros are hoarding arms on their 40 man roster like some sort of defiant rogue state, young pitchers Wesley Wright, Fernando Abad and Jose Capellan are performing well in the Dominican. Growing pains would be expecting for someone like Wesley Wright who is attempting to morph from just another left handed reliever to a 25 year old starting pitching candidate.

So far, the results have been thought provoking if nothing else. Outside of his last start, Wesley has been good if not great- striking out 10 batters in one relatively short outing. Promising also is his ground ball-fly ball out ratio against right handed hitters: 4.43:1. Sample size probably should be the reoccurring objection to that statistic, and looking at his fellow pitchers the DWL looks to be a pitching heavy league. I think the Astros should be commended for stretching Wesley out and seeing what they have with the youngster. The man threw four different pitches as a reliever- a skill that should not be wasted as a middle reliever. Wright will join Wilton Lopez and Felipe Paulino as candidates for the fifth starter's slot.

Also pitching in the Dominican are Fernando Abad and Jose Capellan. Abad was recently added to the 40 man roster, so I would assume that the Astros think there's potential in his left arm. He has displayed exceptional control as a minor leaguer (92:11 K:BB ratio this past season), and managed to survive the hitter's paradise that is Lancaster to be promoted to Corpus Christi. Projecting minor league talent is always tough, and something I try to avoid, but I do know that 1) being left handed 2) having good control and 3) striking more than one batter out per inning, are all positives. Heading into his first full AA season in 2010, something to look for with Abad is his ability to continue missing bats with his pitches. The leap from A to AA is a big one, moreso than from rookie ball to A. The Texas League is full of studly hitters, and Fernando will need to continue this upward trend if he wants to live to see Dell Diamond.

Jose Capellan was in the running to be our fifth starter just 8 months ago, but Russ Ortiz was kind enough to not only beat him out, but stink up the joint once he donned an Astro uniform. To his credit. Cappy has done well to put a terrible 2009 regular season behind him and has done his best to at least end 2009 on a good note. Unlike Abad and Wright, Cappellan is getting a bit long in the tooth for a minor leaguer and his window is quickly closing as it doesn't look like there will be many open spots on the Astros roster in 2010. His greatest skill may be getting from Round Rock to Houston in less than 2.5 hours, in the event of injury.

A month is left in the season, so Wes, Jose and Fernando should have many more opportunities to impress the team and give us reason to discuss the state of our pitching staff well into the Holiday Season.

This Week in AZ Baseball

Jim McLennan — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 20:15:09 -0000

The hot-stove season is now officially under way, with the free-agent market opening on Friday morning, with 171 players putting themselves on the auction block. Relief pitcher John Grabow was the first to go, getting a $7.5m, two-year deal from the Cubs. He has been pretty good over the past couple of seasons, but this seems like the Northsiders doing what they do best, overpaying for mediocre talent, since Grabow's career ERA+ is 107. Anyway, after the break, we'll discuss more free agents (both major- and minor-league), the end of professional baseball for the year in the US, how our winter guys are doing, and whatever else comes to mind.

As noted already, the Diamondbacks have got their winter underway already, with a trade bringing reliever Aaron Heilman to the team, in exchange for a couple of prospects. Fan opinion has been a bit mixed: some see Heilman as a mediocre arm, not worth pursuing, while others welcome the depth Heilman's addition provides, at the cost of two low-ceiling minor-league players. There was some discussion of him possibly trying out for the rotation, but all the public comments from the team have him as a set-up man for Qualls. Said Josh Byrnes, "He's pitched in pressurized situations before in terms of his role and the markets he's pitched in."

Our Double-A affiliate in Mobile have got themselves a new logo (above). It's not bad, I reckon - if you think it looks a bit retro, that's exactly the look they were going for. Said team president Bill Shanahan, "We're going back in time and honoring the old Bears uniforms of the 1940s. Our new cream-colored home uniform is a classic look. The bear is out of hibernation, hungry and ready to go. With our old logo, the bear was a nice, fun, happy bear. But we're going for a more aggressive look now. We're hungry for more championships and eager to expand." Hungry? Why do I sense a certain Rockies fan-eating bear picture might be cropping up in the comments?

Speaking of our farm system, courtesy of Baseball America, here's the list of Diamondbacks' minor-league free agents:

RHP: Scott Dohmann (AAA), Seth Etherton (AAA), Bobby Korecky (AAA), Ramon Sanchez (Hi A)
LHP: Jonathon Coutlangus (AAA)
C: Orlando Mercado (AA), Matt Tupman (AA)
2B: Guillermo Reyes (AA)
3B: Ruben Gotay (AAA), Agustin Murillo (AAA)
SS: Abraham Nunez (AAA), Ed Rogers (AAA)
OF: Trent Oeltjen (AAA), Chris Roberson (AAA), Brandon Watson (AAA)

A couple here I'd like to see us try to re-sign, most obviously Jon Coutlangus. Not, admittedly, for much more reason than I like saying "Coutlangus"... And I have to support the retention of Trent Oeltjen, simply to prevent the marching of a mob of angry Laideez on Das SnakePitBunker. But otherwise... If you've spent six years in the minor-leagues and are still down at Double-A, with your thirtieth birthday coming up on Tuesday, one wonders if considering an alternative career might be for the best.

Today is the last day of the Arizona Fall League, with the championship game going on over at Scottsdale Stadium between the Peoria Javelinas and the Phoenix Desert Dogs - the latter are after their sixth straight AFL title, which is quite a feat, given how there's little carry forward of roster members from one year to another. The game is being shown live on the MLB Network and also streaming for free at mlb.com, with the game underway at the time of writing. However, it will take place without #1 draft pick Stephen Strasburg, who twisted his knee and been scratched from the Peoria line-up as a precaution. The hearts of Nationals fans skip a beat.

Arizona's boys on the Scottsdale Scorpions finished with a 15-16 record, 3.5 games back of Phoenix in the standings. Despite a decent performance in front of the assembled 'Pitters on Wednesday, Brandon Allen finished the year hitting a disappointing .177 in the AFL, though did lead the league with 22 walks. It has been a very long season for Allen: he has played in five different leagues (Southern, International, Pacific Coast, MLB and AFL), accumulating over 750 plate-appearances (502 in the minors, 116 in the majors and about 135 in the AFL). Take the rest of the year off, Brandon - you deserve it.

If any one of our hitters looked good in the AFL this year, it was new 40-man roster addition Cole Gillespie. While not showing much power (one home-run in 72 at-bats), he hit .333 with a phenomenal K:BB ratio of 6:17. Yep, that's not a misprint: he walked almost three times for every strikeout. Given the league average was almost 2:1 the other way, it's especially impressive. On the pitching front, Bryan Augenstein recovered well after a poor first outing, to end up with the lowest ERA among the Arizona prospects at 4.15. Over his final five outings, he allowed four earned runs over 15.2 innings, with three walks and 14 strikeouts.

Conor Jackson returned from the Dominican Republic on Monday - to the disappointment of his team there, who wanted him to extend his stay. You can't blame Leones del Escogido for wanting to hang on to CoJack. At the time of his departure, he was leading, not just his team but the entire league in the Sabermetric Triple Crown categories: OBP (.561), SLG (.589), and OPS (1.150) as well as those old-school favorites, BA (.425) and - are you ready for this? - stolen bases, with Conor having nine, without being caught once. It's perhaps that which is perhaps the most convincing proof that he has fully recovered from the energy-sapping effects of Valley Fever.

Jordan Norberto also continues to perform well, pitching in the DWL. With a 2.70 ERA, he has yet to walk a batter in ten innings of work, and has fanned thirteen. However, Norberto has hit three batters and thrown four wild pitches, so control does still seem to be something of an issue. In Venezuela, Alex Romero is hitting .372, though has yet to hit a home-run after 86 at-bats. Not too much of a surprise there. Tony Abreu is also homerless in the Dominican, after 79 at-bats, and has only two walks in that time, leading in part to a lackluster .659 OPS thus far. Bit of a theme for most of the Diamondbacks in winter ball: combined, those listed have only four HR in over five hundred at-bats.

Seems to be a bit of a spat going on over the sale of the franchise previously known as the Tucson Sidewinders. An investor says former owner Jay Zucker refused to honor a contract giving him the right to buy 10% of the team. David Smallhouse of Primo Ventures says he invested $1 million in the franchise in 2004 with an option to buy another 10 percent of the company. During the 2007 sale of the franchise, Smallhouse tried to exercise the option, but Zucker refused. Smallhouse now wants a Pima County Court judge to compel Zucker to go to arbitration regarding the matter.

And a random note to finish. NL Rookie of the Year, Chris Coghlan could have been a Diamondback. We actually picked him first, in the 18th round of the 2004 draft, but he didn't sign and re-entered the draft in 2006, when the Marlins picked him in the 1st round - guess it proved a profitable decision for him. The rest, as they say, is history...

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 15:02:27 -0000

More photos » by Jacques Boissinot - AP

Eric Gagne, seen here in his Quebec Capitales uniform from the Can-Am League, is looking to return to the majors. The Brewers aren't interested.

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Some things to read while I work on the logistics of this.

No matter how ugly this offseason gets, at least we know it won't be this bad: The Brewers are not interested in a reunion with Eric Gagne, who spent the 2009 season pitching in the independent Can-Am League. I'm guessing interest in his services will be pretty light.

Speaking of moves that probably won't be made, Ken Rosenthal says the Brewers are unlikely to make a deal to clear up the logjam in their infield, unless "the pitching equivalent of Mat Gamel" is on the table. I'm not sure where the Brewers will find ABs for both Gamel and McGehee, but I'd guess Gamel might start 2010 in AAA if both return.

It's a light news day, so I scraped the bottom of the barrel for a roundup of players that have been mentioned in association with the Brewers over the last few weeks:

Brewer Paradise Lost ended their long hiatus with a post advocating for signing Jarrod Washburn.
Jack Moore of FanGraphs looks at Edwin Jackson's improved 2009 season, and says he still shouldn't be considered an elite pitcher.
Meanwhile, Dave Allen of FanGraphs looks at Joel Pineiro's decreasing walk rate and ability to get ground balls.
Lyle Spencer of MLB.com says John Lackey is believed to be seeking "Barry Zito dollars." This could be a great deal, as Zito dollars look great on the surface but perform at a tiny percentage of their expected worth.
If Craig Counsell really is considering offers from other teams this offseason, Omar Vizquel might be one name mentioned as a possible replacement. Vizquel, however, appears to want to play for a higher-profile team. The Phillies are the early favorite to sign him.
Dayn Perry lists Mike Cameron to the Cardinals as one of ten moves that need to happen this offseason.

After weeks of wondering about his whereabouts, TheJay found Adam Heether yesterday...sort of. A news story from his Venezuelan team's home page says Heether can't be released while he's injured. There's no mention of the details of the injury, or why they would want to release him in the first place...Heether was hitting .214/.389/.371 in his first 21 games.

Elsewhere in the minors, Wisconsin Sports Tap has ranked the top 15 outfielders in the Brewer system. The cupboard is pretty bare at the upper levels of the minors, but there's good depth in the lower levels that could develop into an organizational strength.

Just one transaction of note today:

Phillies: Removed infielder Eric Bruntlett from their 40-man roster.

I don't know why I waited this long to mention this, because it makes me laugh nearly every day: If you haven't seen it yet, you should be checking out the "Faces" series at Lookout Landing.

Over the last decade, we've seen major organizational shifts across baseball to emphasize the development and value of prospects. Minor League Baseball is setting record attendance numbers as fans come out to see the players of the future, and teams are taking great strides to protect their investments. Why, then, are the same players being fed a steady diet of junk food before and after games? Garrett Broshuis has a look at he diet of minor leaguers, and the challenges they face trying to find healthy options.

In yesterday's Fall/Winter League Update, I mentioned that D-Backs first baseman Conor Jackson is leading all Dominican batters with a .561 OBP this winter. That's even more impressive when you remember a detail I forgot: Jackson is recovering from Valley Fever, which cost him a large portion of the 2009 season.

B-Ref sponsorships are a great way to help support a site many of us use every day and frequently take for granted, but they're also a great opportunity for jokes: Baseball Junk Drawer has a top ten list of the best page sponsorship comments. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

Happy birthday today to:

Matt Wise, who posted a 3.93 ERA in 175 games as a Brewer and turns 34.
1991-1992 Brewer Dante Bichette, who turns 46.
Mike Felder, who spent 1985-1990 as a Brewer and turns 48.

Today is also the 41st anniversary of the birth of Gary Sheffield. While "Happy birthday" doesn't really seem appropriate, it merited acknowledgment.

I missed it yesterday, but today appears to be another Woot-off Day.

Oh, and don't forget to check the IQ. (h/t @AccidentalWI)

Drink up.

This week in AZ baseball: Webb returns, the 2010 roster takes shape, and an AFL Gameday Thread

Jim McLennan — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:30:28 -0000

Didn't bother doing one of these last weekend, as there really wasn't enough to justify it. Not the case at all today, with a lot of contract news following the end of the World Series, and as a result we can see the first signs of the roster for next season taking place. Or, at least, cross some names off the potential candidates' list, anyway. Today is also the Arizona Fall League All-Star game out in Surprise, with first pitch at 6:15 pm. It's going to be televised, both on the MLB Network and free at mlb.com, so this post will also be the Gameday Thread for that event.

Details of that, analysis of the roster moves, an update on the latest numbers by Diamondbacks in winter ball and more, after the jump.

While no surprise, the big news is, of course, that Brandon Webb will be pitching for the Diamondbacks in 2010, after the team exercised their option. Everyone concerned seemed upbeat at the news, our ace saying, "I was hoping that they would. I was just waiting for the phone call. It was up in the air for a while and rightfully so, it was a big question mark for a while, but I've bounced back really well and am feeling good and I'm happy I'll be back next year." His agent - and one-time SnakePit poster! - Jonathan Maurer added, "We've said from Day 1 that Brandon is very happy with the Diamondbacks and our preference was to remain in Arizona. We would love to work out something long term, but we will just take this year and see how it plays out." Webb concurs: "Hopefully it goes well for both of us and we can maybe start some talks, if everything goes well, toward the end of next year."

Three months after the surgery in early August, Webb will be doing a little gentle soft-toss next week to end his season, before then closing things down and eventually beginning his usual build-up towards spring training and, all going well, Opening Day. He sounded fairly confident he'll be the same pitcher he was: "Even when I was throwing and I was still having some pain, the life on the ball was still there. I can't be too sure, but I'm pretty sure I'll always probably have that sinking action, because that's just how my arm action is, it allows the ball to do that." I certainly hope so: Webb without his sinker...why, that'd be like Lincecum without a pipe in his mouth.

Brandon may be coming back, but there are a lot of Diamondbacks who apparently won't be - though again, none of the news on that front was massively unexpected. On the pitching front, Doug Davis and Scott Schoeneweis filed for free-agency, while Daniel Cabrera declined his assignment to Reno and became a free agent too. Yusmeiro Petit was taken from Arizona on waivers by the Mariners - likely a better location for the fly-ball prone Petit Unit., and our colleague on Lookout Landing are quite excited. The trio accounted for almost one-third of our starts last season (34 for Davis, 17 for Petit, one for Cabrera), and means the competition for the fifth spot next year is currently down to Billy Buckner, Bryan Augenstein and Kevin Mulvey, with the first-named the favorite at this point. Doug Slaten was also picked up off waivers, by Washington.

On the position player front, we say a poignant farewell to Chad Tracy, whose 2010 option was bought out by the Diamondbacks. Only two players - Luis Gonzales and Steve Finley - have played more games in an Arizona jersey than Chad, who appeared 704 times for Arizona over six seasons. His career line with the team was decent, at .280/.339/.453, for a .792 OPS, but since returning from knee surgery, his output has slumped. Chad's numbers against left-handed pitching were particularly poor, helping to make the decision to decline his $7m option relatively easy. Also possibly on the way out are Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen, moves intended to relieve the impending crush in the 2010 outfield.

Good article in the Republic today on how the economic downturn is hitting all valley sports teams, not just the Diamondbacks. "Every professional sports team in metro Phoenix, along with Arizona State University's football team and the annual Fiesta Bowl, has had trouble selling tickets this year... Teams have been forced to try promotions once considered unthinkable as the drop in attendance cuts deeper into revenue and costs jobs.." Said Jerry Colangelo: "I have been here over 40 years, and this is the worst it has ever been." Other points of interest with regard to the local franchises:

The Suns streak of home sellouts ended this month and the team just laid off about 10% of employees.
The Coyotes have the lowest average crowd in the NHL, attracting just 5,855 for Monday's game. [There's also an article on whether Phoenix might be better served by minor-league hockey]
The NFC champion Cardinals have needed an extension for all but one of their home games, to avoid them being blacked out on TV.

Time for an update on our winter league ball-players, starting with Conor Jackson in the Dominican. If he's still not showing much power - one home-run in fourteen games - he's still getting on base with impressive frequency: he has an OBP of .523, thanks in part to a K:BB ratio of 14:9. Conor's batting .364 and has stolen six bases in six attempts. Alex Romero and Trent Oeltjen are also hitting above .350 in Venezuela and Mexico, but since they are potenially going to be ex-Diamondbacks in the near future, I'm not going to look too hard there. The potential 2010 right-side of our infield continues to struggle: Tony Abreu has a .640 OPS in the Dominican, while Brandon Allen is hitting only .162 in the traditionally-hitter friendly AFL. Allen's 19 walks do lead the league, however.

On the pitching front, Tom Layne is the only one of the four in the AFL making a good impression. He has allowed two earned runs in 9.1 innings of work, on seven hits and four walks, with ten strikeouts. Bryan Augenstein has pitched the same number of innings, but allowed fifteen hits, leading to seven earned rusn. That's still better than Cesar Valdez, who has wobbled his way to an 11.25 ERA in eight innings. Intriguing line from the Dominican, where Jordan Norberto has nine strikeouts in five innings: while he's allowed five runs, only one has been earned. Scott Patterson has been working well in Venezuela: in 5.1 innings, he has given up three hits and a walk, with six K's.

Speaking of the AFL, today is the Rising Stars game at Surprise, where 50 of the best and brightest major-league baseball has to offer will go head to head. The only Diamondback taking part will be Allen, but it'll be almost your last chance to see live baseball from inside the United States until next March, so I fully intend to take advantage. As mentioned, the game is on both the MLB Network, and streaming for free at mlb.com, so there's no excuse not to be watching this one - and commenting in this thread. [I'll be here, just a little late, as we've got to have dinner first]

The scheduled starting pitchers are both 2009 frst-round draft picks - Desert Dogs right-hander Stephen Strasburg was #1 and Atlanta left-hander Mike Minor was #7. Be my first chance to see the much-vaunted Strasburg in action. Per Red Reign in the comments, looks like Strasburg has been scratched from the game with a strained neck. Probably injured it lugging his bonus to the bank.

Finally, Clay Zavada had his number, #35, retired by Illinois Valley Community College on Thursday. He pitched there in 2003 and 2004, and is the first alumni of the institution to reach the majors in its 85-year history. Around 200 replica handlebar mustaches were handed out for the ceremony, at half-time in a basketball game at the college in Oglesby. "It couldn’t happen to a better kid," said IVCC athletic director Tommy Canale. "He’s really had some tough tribulations in his life and he fought through that." Hear, hear.

Fantasy Baseball: It's Time for You to Love Kyle Blanks

Ian, yo — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 22:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

Browse more photos »

With all of the recent talk of the San Diego Padres dealing first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, I decided I'd discuss what would happen if Gonzalez actually were dealt. I'll start with a little background.

In 2004 in the 42nd round (1241st overall) the San Diego Padres drafted Kyle Blanks out of Arizona. During his minor league career, Blanks maxed out with 24 home runs in 2007 and hit another 20 home runs in 2008 in AA. In three of Blanks' five minor league seasons, he posted an OPS of over .900 and with his move to the majors in 2009, put up an OPS of .869. In Blanks short minor league career, he's shown a decent ability to get on base with an average of 10.7 BB% At 6'6, 270 lbs, Blanks has the frame to develop into an excellent power hitter and also has the ability to hit near .300 while being a solid middle of the order producer.

In 2009, Blanks played the first half of his season in AAA Portland where he hit 12 home runs and had over half as many walks as he did strikeouts (38/63.) Later into the season, Blanks was called up by the Padres to play in the outfield. Blanks started 34 games in the outfield (21 in right) where he actually didn't play too poorly. While in San Diego, Blanks hit 10 home runs in 148 ABs and slugged .514. His average of .250 could have been attributed to his lack of experience and moving fairly quickly throughout the system, which may have also had an effect on Blanks' K% (37.2% when his career minor league numbers hovered in the 20's.)

In 2010, if Adrian Gonzalez is still on a San Diego Padre's roster, you can expect to see Blanks getting time in the outfield. If Gonzalez is indeed traded before the open of the 2010 season, Blanks should be playing first base. When I go into my drafts in 2010 and everyone is looking for late-round sleepers, I will be keeping Blanks in my mind as a guy I can target very late that has the upside to put up anywhere from 20-25 home runs with a decent average. If Blanks fails to hit or live up to his ability, have no concerns with dropping him as you'll be getting him late as is. Blanks will probably be drafted near players such as Conor Jackson, J.D. Drew and Kosuke Fukudome and if you are willing to take one of those three, you definitely should be willing to take the risk on Kyle Blanks.

This Week in AZ Baseball: prospects injury news, winter ball report and a "to-do" list.

Jim McLennan — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 01:00:20 -0000

We ate at Mrs. White's Golden Rule Cafe last night - it's the one on Jefferson, almost diagonally opposite the NE corner of Chase Field. First time we've actually ever been, even though I've driven past it on the way to work every day for almost three years now! I believe it was one of Orlando Hudson's favorite places to eat when he was with the Diamondbacks, and do have to say, the Chicken Fried Steak was phenomenal, a deliciously-moist concoction which has supplanted the previous best in Phoenix, that of the Texaz Grill on 16th Street. The walls are covered with signatures from previous famous diners; a lot of sports people in general, though I'd hardly have called the food part of a nutritious diet. Junior Spivey's signature was just above our table.

Anyway, leading off the news this week is that our 2007 first-round draft-pick, Jarrod Parker, will have Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. We also take a look at the performances of our players in winter ball, and paw over some suggestions for what the Diamondbacks need to do over the winter. Join us after the jump for all that, and more

The Diamondbacks first-round pick in 2007, Jarrod Parker, will be having Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. The team had initially hoped to avoid surgery for the problem, which first cropped up at the end of July, but the issue didn't appear to resolve itself, so an operation has been scheduled. It means he will miss the entire 2010 season, and it's likely that 2011 will largely be spent learning how to pitch. According to Tom Gordon, who had the surgery in 1999, "It takes a good two years to really have a good feel again." Still, Parker is young enough - he doesn't turn 21 until next month - that time is on his side. There'll be more on this next week, as I'm writing one of my medical pieces, detailing what the procedure entails, the rehab and Parker's future chances.

He wasn't the only Arizona prospect to suffer an injury setback this week. While Roque Mercedes may have one of the coolest names in the Diamondbacks organization (just ahead of Tyson van Winkle and Vincent Bongiovanni), the pitcher won't be taking the mound for a bit. Nick Piecoro reports our prospect was hit in the face by a line-drive, down in the Dominican Republic his injuries resulting in surgery which will keep him out for about six weeks. To add insult to injury, it was one of his team-mates that was responsible, as Mercedes was throwing batting-practice at the time. I bet that Roque-d him...

As the above paragraph suggests, Winter League ball is under way, with the Dominican and Mexican leagues now joining the Arizona Fall League. I've got a useful link for you, which allows you to see all the D-backs' winter ball statistics in one convenient location. The one line which jumps out is Conor Jackson, who has apparently turned into the Incredible Hulk following his encounter with Valley Fever, and is hitting .533/.682/.933. At this rate, major-leaguers will be queuing up to inhale some of our good ol' Arizonan fungal spores - right up until Bud gets around to banning them as an illegal PED. Which, based on how long he took with steroids, will probably be around the year 2027...

It certainly increased the chance of him being offered a contract by the Diamondbacks. I believe the rules are, that for arbitration-eligible players such as Jackson, we can't offer less than 80% of his previous salary, which for Conor would be $2.4m. If he was still unable to do anything more than become acquainted with Judge Judy and her daytime TV companions, that might not be worth the risk But going 8-for-15 with seven walks? Yeah, I think we'll see a contract with his name on it being drawn up by the front-office. [As an aside, Mrs. SnakePit wonders how Conor is coping there - after all, he's not the most Hispanic of players. She wonders if the team sent an interpreter with him]

Also enjoying his time in the Dominican is Tony Abreu, who is 9-for-22 with an OPS of 1.026. Daniel Cabrera had a solid first outing, throwing four innings and allowing only one run - perhaps more importantly, he also walked only one batter. As we saw during the regular season for Arizona and Washington [42 walks, four hit batters and 11 wild pitches in 51 innings of work], control is by far Cabrera's biggest issue. Jose Marte and Jordan Norberto have barely got started, but have combined for two scoreless innings out of the bullpen for Estrellas de Oriente

Not so much success for AZ pitchers in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. Our four hurlers - Bryan Augenstein, Tom Laine, Scott Maine and Cesar Valdez - have combined for 11.2 innings of work and thirteen earned runs, on seventeen hits and ten walks. Maine and Valdez in partiocular seem to have been infected with Cabrera-itis, having handed out a total of eight free passes in 3.2 frames. At the plate, Brandon Allen has struggled, hitting .211 (8-for-38), though has ten walks, resulting in a respectable .375 OBP. Cole Gillespie is impressing, going 8-for-20 with five walks and only one K. Pedro Ciriaco is also doing well: 9-for-21 with an OPS over a thousand.

Finally in this area - though I'm not quite sure if this counts as "winter ball," since it's actually their summer - the Australian season is about to get under way, naturally featuring our own Trent Oeltjen. Here's a piece on baseball down under, and it looks like this could become another off-season destination for players. "The MLB and the Australian Baseball Federation have joined in a unique partnership to unveil a competition that will seek to attract US stars keen to tune up ahead of their home season. The MLB, buoyed by the success of its joint venture Australian academy on the Gold Coast, which has seen 126 players graduate to pro leagues around the world since 2000, will bankroll 75 per cent of the competition."

A potential financial cloud on the horizon for the team. The Phoenix Business Journal says " The next shoe to drop in the legal fight over special tax breaks and subsidies for developers could be over the 100 percent tax exemptions ponied up for high-profile projects. That action could come after the Arizona Supreme Court decides whether a $97 million tax break for the CityNorth mixed-use development in northeast Phoenix is constitutional under state law... A lawsuit [is] expected to be filed over government property lease excise taxes, or GPLETs. These funding mechanisms allow government entities that own land to lease it back to private developers and businesses, which then pay lower-than-normal property taxes." Currently, the Diamondbacks pay no property taxes because they lease Chase from the Maricopa County Stadium District. Insert rant about taxpayer-funded pro sports facilities here.

Billy Buckner was the winner of the 2009 Diamondbacks' award for Minor-League Pitcher of the Year. That may seem a bit of a surprise, given his lackluster performances early in the season with the big club, but when pitching for Reno, he went 9-3 with a 3.32 ERA. Looking at the other numbers, a couple of other candidates include Berling Cruz, who had a 2.23 ERA in fourteen games (thirteen starts) for the Diamondbacks in the Dominican Summer League, and Michael Belfiore's 2.11 ERA over 58 innings with Missoula. But I'm sure Zephon and IHSB will talk more about these guys in their end-of-season reviews.

Nick Piecoro has come up with his to-do list in the off-season for the Diamondbacks. Not too much to argue with there: little doubt we need a starting pitcher, a first-baseman and a couple of arms in the bullpen. However, I would question the amounts allocated by Nick, of the $28m we have to spend, especially given the names he mentions. I don't think $7m will be anywhere near to get someone like Jason Marquis, who earned close to ten million this season, and won 15 games with the Rockies. I doubt a 30% pay-cut is anywhere imminent in his future. The other suggestion, Brad Penny, who made only six starts, is more likely for the cash: $7m will only get you someone whose 2009 was marred either by injury or their performance.

I'd be surprised if we end up spending more, as Nick thinks, on the bullpen - especially as we don;t need a closer, or even probably a set-up man. Eight million dollars therefore seems a bit high. I think in Chad Qualls, Juan Gutierrez, Esmerling Vasquez and Clay Zavada, we have the makings of a fairly-solid bullpen, and you can add Blaine Boyer, who was very impressive in his time with us, or possibly even Daniel Schlereth to the mix. I think we just need a couple of reliable middle-inning guys, nothing spectacular or too expensive. Overpaying for relievers is not something I'd say the team needs to do - we have more significant needs.

The 2009 Diamondbacks: what the heck happened?

Jim McLennan — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 02:00:17 -0000

Worst Case Scenario… Arizona battles with Colorado for third place.
-- Baseball Digest Daily Team Preview, March 15, 2009

The above is a measure of how badly things went for our team this year: the "worst case scenario" suggested, would be something for which we would now be more than happy to settle. It's comforting to realize that I am far from the only person to have seen their high expectation for the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks mercilessly dashed. Virtually every pundit I could locate online predicted us to have a winning record - the respected Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections had the team all the way up at 88 wins, and they weren't alone.

Other sites predicted 86 wins; 85 wins, 84 wins, 88 wins, 83 wins for Arizona, and even CHONE, the most pessimistic I could find at 79 wins, had us finishing only three games back of the Dodgers. From a more fan-based perspective, in our pre-season poll, of approaching three hundred participants, only 12% predicted the Diamondbacks would have less than eighty victories, never mind struggling to reach seventy. Not quite the same realm as the chairman of DEC saying "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home," but why were so many people - neutral observers, with no vested interests or rose-colored fandom glasses - so completely wrong? Why was there such a gulf between expectations and reality? After the jump, we'll break down some numbers - here are Josh Byrnes and AJ Hinch talking about the season that's just finished.

Audio courtesy of KTAR 620

Injuries
Let's not kid ourselves. The loss of Brandon Webb was a devastating blow to the Diamondbacks in 2009, as much because it was completely unexpected to us. After all, over the previous five season, he had never made less than 33 starts per year. To be reduced from that, at an ERA+ of 140 to a single, ineffective outing was clearly a huge factor in the team's underperformance. How much?

Let's look at Webb's record in 2005, 2006 and 2008, when the total number of runs scored by the team (696, 712 and 720) were close to this year, when it's exactly the same as 2008, at 720. In those three years, Webb's collective ERA was 3.31 - one tick above the number posted last season - and his average W/L record was 17-9, with the team going 19-14 in his starts This seems a reasonable estimate for what we "should" have got from Webb this year, assuming run support approximately matching those hundred starts, and an ERA consistent with last year.

Instead of him, there was the Quadruple-headed Beast of Webb-Replacement Suck: Bryan Augenstein, Yusmeiro Petit, Billy Buckner and Kevin Mulvey. While Buckner has, of late, looked a semi-credible back-end candidate for 2010, this has been the exception, rather than the rule. In their first 33 starts, that quartet had an ERA of 6.24, went 5-18 and the team posted a record of 9-24 - ten games worse than that we could realistically have expected from 33 Webb starts. Even using a more conservative estimate - Fangraph.com's Wins Above Replacement (WAR) - we find that Webb in 2008 was worth six wins to Arizona - the four-pack of replacements plus Webb in 2009 rated only 0.3 wins in 33 starts, 5.7 less. I'd split the difference between the two methods and say Webb's injury cost us eight wins

We should also consider the unfortunate loss of Conor Jackson to valley fever, which basically meant he had the entire season written off. No real way to measure his input except by using WAR. This tells us there's a difference of 4.5 wins between what we got from the SnakePit MVP in 2008 and his sub-replacement output for the team this season. So, between the loss of him and Webb, we're probably looking at a cost to the team around twelve games. That's a massive difference by itself, almost enough to have put the team into contention for the wild-card, and is not including anyone else - I believe Arizona's players missed a total of almost 800 player-games on the DL. But wait! There's more...

Trades
After it became apparent that this team was not going to be in the post-season hunt, several deals were made, sending useful pieces to other teams, generally in exchange for players who might help the team in 2010 or beyond. The players we lost would likely have helped the Diamondbacks to several more victories - albeit meaningless ones - had we retained their services for the rest of the season. From WAR, we can see what the ex-Diamondbacks did for their new teams - production which could have been in Arizona.

Of course, we need to balance against this, the production provided to Arizona this season, by what we received in return. The chart below shows the four main trades, with the WAR values given to their new teams after the trade, on both sides of the deal:

Left Arizona	WAR	To Arizona	WAR
Jon Garland	0.6	PTBNL	0.0
Felipe Lopez	2.6	Cole Gillespie Roque Mercedes	0.0
Tony Peña	0.5	Brandon Allen	-0.6
Jon Rauch	0.3	Kevin Mulvey	-0.1
TOTAL	4.0	TOTAL	-0.7

Ugh. I hope those trades work out better for us in the long-term than they did this season, because they provided absolutely nothing of value to the 2009 team. While it would be simple just to say that we would have approached five wins better, simply by hanging on to the players with whom we started the season, it probably isn't as simple as that, because of the positional changes. The replacement at second for Lopez was mostly Rusty Ryal, who was a credible +0.6 WAR in his time here. While still well short of F-Lo, who hit .320 for the Brewers over 66 games, it's enough to make me reduce the overall impact to four wins.

Almost as significant a weakening were the Peña and Rauch deals, not just for what they would have done in the 'pen but the negative impact of the players received in return. After the way Allen tore up AAA pitching, an OPS+ of 70 in more than thirty games was still disappointing. I think we'll be taking Reno numbers with a larger pinch of salt next season. Mulvey lacked control, issuing 14 free passes (a dozen walks and two hit batters) and five home-runs in only 23 innings. He'll need to do better than that, if he wants even to be our sixth starter next year - a spot at which, as noted above, Arizona blew chunks. We'll discuss the moves more in due course, I think; both Mulvey and Allen will only be 24 on Opening Day 2010, so that's in their favor.

"Bad luck"
Yeah, this may sound like a Cubs-esque cop-out, but there's some evidence to suggest the team was unlucky, and I don't just mean the lodging of fungal sports in the lungs of one of our best 2008 hitters. Baseball is a chaotic, in mathematical terms, game - in the sense that a tiny change in circumstances can have a massive effect on results. For example, a couple of millimeters difference on where the ball hits the bat, far beyond what any hitter can control consciously, may be the difference between a grand-slam and an inning-ending can of corn to the outfield. However, that requires a good deal more space, and this piece has already gone on long enough, so I'll carry any detailed analysis there forward for another day... But it's probably worth at least another three wins.

Conclusions
That brings us to a total of 19 wins lost to the Diamondbacks by factors more or less outside their control - the trades would likely not have happened had the team still been in contention, which in turn was the result of a combination of factors, including injuries and the whims of the baseball gods. It's enough to explain the entire gulf between performance and expectations, and then some.

This does not absolve the front-office from responsibility for their part in the disappointing season. Given the known issue with Webb's shoulder - which was apparently a big enough concern to stop the two sides from agreeing on a contract extension - it was particularly reckless to have no credible backup available in our pitching rotation. First-base continues to be a major black-hole of offensive production, and with the honorable exception of Dan Haren, the contract extensions awarded over the past few years have yet to bear fruit (and that's putting it mildly). Those outside the lines certainly have their share of blame.

However, even with all the self-inflicted wounds, the Diamondbacks as formulated on Opening Day 2009 would, if fully healthy and getting anything approaching normal luck, have been over .500, at the very least. Indeed, thanks to a number of everyday players surpassing expectations (Montero, Upton, Reynolds), 90 wins could conceivably have been achieved had the breaks gone minorly our way. Again, I'll analyze our actual performances more in the coming weeks, but you might find some surprises there too [here's a tidbit - the 2009 bullpen was, by at least one advanced measure, better than in 2008].

NL West Report: Final standings taking shape

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:00:45 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

A charge from the last month from San Diego has put them in prime position to finish surprisingly in fourth place.

Browse more photos »

There are two weeks left to play this season. Ironically, we already have a very strong idea how the final standings in the National League West will shake out, at least in terms of order. The space between teams in the division has stretched to the point nearly of no return.

In the last week, the Dodgers and Rockies strengthened their grasp on their respective positions, while San Diego created a little more distance from the fading Diamondbacks.

For a mathematical look, here's a handy standings table. The %+1 column indicates the probability the team will move up one slot in the standings. %-1 indicates the opposite. SAME represents the probability the team will stay in the same spot. For all practical purposes, the Giants cannot win the division, and they are the only team mathematically alive to move two places in the standings (and consequently, the Dodgers as well).

The percentages were calculated by analyzing SportsClubsStats' odds final standings probability distribution, which should be noted exhibits smaller variances than Baseball Prospectus. (For instance, Prospectus gives the Rockies twice the chance to win the division as SCS). However, given the extra detail SCS gives, that' what I used to calculate probabilities.

NL West Standings

	W-L	GB	%+1	%-1	Same
Los Angeles	90-60	-	-	0.8%	98.5%
Colorado	85-65	5	0.8%	1.1%	98.1%
San Francisco	80-69	9.5	1.1%	0%	98.9%
San Diego	68-82	22	0%	9.9%	90.1%
Arizona	65-85	25	9.9%	-	90.1%

(updated 9.20.2009 at 11:13 PM MDT)

No team has odds greater than 10% to move from their current position, and ignoring mathematics, San Diego would appear to have a better chance than even that 90% at retaining their 4th place position. The Padres have not had a losing week in the last month, while Arizona is stumbling through a 5-13 September.

There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of drama here folks. We are two weeks out, and the final standings are starting to look very clear. In fact, chances are about 86% that the order will come out on October 5 exactly as they do this morning, and more than half of the doubt comes from the inconsequential repositioning of the bottom two teams.

Find out about the NL West after the jump.

NL West Report

San Francisco (80-69, 3rd, L2, 9.0 GB in Div, 4.5 GB in WC)

**Last Week: 3-3.  2-1 vs Rockies. 1-2 @ Dodgers. The Giants were inches from being 1.5 games behind, but their failure to close the Rox series and beat Los Angeles completely nullified those first two games they won against the Rockies. Since August 28, San Francisco is 2-0 in series against Colorado, 1-4 against the rest of the NL.

Pace:  87-75 (No change).

Divisional Change: Lost 2.0 games in NL West (LAD), No change in WC (COL), though making up no ground cost them a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Diamondbacks, 4 game home series vs Cubs. While the Rockies spar with the hot Padres and strong Cards, San Francisco absolutely must make up ground this week with the lighter schedule, or they'll be out of the playoff chase by the next installment of NL West Report.

News:** Obviously, the biggest story was the detention of 19-year-old Angel Villalona in connection with a murder in the Dominican Republic Saturday night. For more information, check out articles at the San Francisco Chronicle or at MLB.com.

Angel Villalona

#31 / First Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 13, 1990

Villalona could be facing 20 years in prison if convicted, which would obviously kill his career. The first baseman was ranked as the Giants' #3 prospect prior to the season behind Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey. Given that both Bumgarner and Posey have both surfaced in the minor leagues this season, Villalona represented the top prospect left in the minor leagues. He played in last year's Futures Game and was a Baseball America top-50 prospect league-wide. This would be a huge blow to an organization that traded away their #4 and #9 prospect as well as seeing their top arm struggle with injuries and velocity issues. Plus, I hear Buster Posey has just one hit all month.

A quote from the team's official statement:

"The Giants were disappointed to learn that there was an incident in the Dominican Republic last night in which an individual was killed and one of our Minor League prospects, Angel Villalona, may have been involved" - Chris Haft, MLB.com

I'm not sure "disappointed" is quite colorful enough of an adjective. Here is McCovey Chronicles' reaction. Some seem to hope it is reminiscent of Juan Uribe's feud in 2006. Unlikely. Villalona voluntarily turned himself in yesterday.

In other news, Brian Sabean appears to have gotten himself an extension.  According to Andrew Baggarly, finishing strong could seal the deal. Sabean had a poor record, and though he improved this season, trading from Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko proved predictably to be underwhelming moves.

Juan Uribe is having a surprising season in San Francisco, and partly for that, he is irrationally loved.

There were some rumblings of the Giants wanting to acquire Prince Fielder. San Francisco refuses to part with their thinning crop of prospects, so the most logical match is Matt Cain. Interesting move there.

After pitching very well recently, both Tim Lincecum and Brad Penny were shelled by Los Angeles over the weekend.

Transactions:   Outrighted RHP Osiris Matos to the minors.

Injuries: Activated LHP Randy Johnson from the 60-day DL. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the club moved RHP Justin Miller to the 60-day DL.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player Injury Type Injury Date

Justin Miller elbow 09/13/2009

Noah Lowry ribs 03/27/2009

Kelvin Pichardo shoulder 06/28/2009

Emmanuel Burriss foot 09/01/2009

Henry Sosa shoulder 08/05/2009

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Justin Miller	elbow	09/13/2009
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Emmanuel Burriss	foot	09/01/2009
Henry Sosa	shoulder	08/05/2009

Arizona (65-85, 5th, L3, 25 GB)

Last Week: 3-3. 2-1 @ Padres. 1-2 vs Rockies. The Diamondbacks did what no playoff contender recently could, defeating the Padres in a series. However, their successful week fell apart late, fitting given the two close games turned blowouts from Saturday and Sunday.

Pace: 70-92 (No change from last week)

Divisional Change: Lost 2.0 games on LAD.

This Week: 3 game home series vs Giants, 3 game home series vs Padres. Chase Field will close down for the season before October literally. Sunday's game against the Padres will be the last home game for the Snakes.

News: Arizona could save big money re: Mark Reynolds. It appears the third baseman will fall short of achieving "Super Two" status this year, which would prolong his arbitration eligibility one year, thereby saving the Diamondbacks over $3million. Reynolds has been such a constant force and has already set records (albeit in strikeouts) that it's easy to forget that he hasn't been in the league for very long.

Mark Reynolds

#27 / Third Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 03, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark Reynolds	143	533	91	142	28	1	42	97	73	203	24	9	.266	.358	.559

Conor Jackson's season is over after he ended his comeback bid after three games. Jackson is prepping for 2010, hoping he shows enough promise to be retained by Arizona.

Steve Gilbert answers questions in his latest inbox. First question: What is fate of catcher Montero? As suspected, he is seen as the absolute starter going forward. Also, Gilbert touches on the likelihood of Brandon Webb's $8.5million option being picked up.

Nick Piecoro also touches on this, noting that the D-Backs won't decide on Webb soon. They will have until 5 days after the World Series concludes to decide, and they are hoping the progress he makes (or doesn't make) makes for an easier decision. It is possible they will offer him a one-year deal below the $8.5million option year.

Doug Davis is a very loyal pitcher. With free agency looming, Davis suggests he would be open to re-joining Arizona or Milwaukee.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Conor Jackson played just three games before he had to shut it down, so he will not return this season. He'll join an instructional league tomorrow to scrape off a glut of rust. In the last 51 weeks, CoJack has less than 100 big league AB's.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chris Snyder	lower-back	08/23/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chad Qualls	knee	08/31/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

Los Angeles (90-60, 1st, W2)

Last Week: 5-1. 3-0 vs Pirates. 2-1 vs Giants. Los Angeles took a series from the Giants for consecutive weekends, helping to spread the distribution in the standings in the top three slots. Los Angeles has just three home games left.

Pace: 97-65. (No change)

Divisional Change: Gained 2 game lead on COL.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Nationals, 3 game road series @ Pirates. Los Angeles has arguably the easiest week on the road there is. They'll face the National League's worst two teams, who have the worst and 5th worst NL home record, respectively.

News: Ken Rosenthal mentioned in this Fox Sports video that the Dodgers' playoff rotation will start with lefties Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw, which should help against lefty-heavy Philadelphia or St. Louis, who has a strangely low OPS vs. LHP this year. The two would then be followed by Hiroki Kuroda and then either Vicente Padilla or Jon Garland.

You might notice a big name missing from that mix - supposed ace Chad Billingsley, who has had a terrible second half (3-6 with a 5.49 ERA after the All-Star break. Joe Torre says that faulty mechanics are at heart of Billingsley's woes, more specifically that he is rushing his delivery, a flaw that isn't surprising for a young frustrated hurler.

Sample sizes can make general managers look like idiots - or they can make them look like geniuses. The latter has occurred for Ned Colletti after Ronnie Belliard's hot has found even Orlando Hudson resting on the bench more. Belliard wasted no time in sending a gutpunch to San Francisco's playoff hopes Saturday when he clubbed a grand slam off Brad Penny in the first inning, the first of three Los Angeles cashed in on Penny.

Ronnie Belliard

#3 / Second Base / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 5-10

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 07, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ronnie Belliard	18	57	6	17	4	0	4	14	3	13	1	0	.298	.333	.579

In limited duty, Belliard has given the Dodgers a very strong 5.7 RAR (runs over replacement), production that by himself completely squashes both Giants' deadline acquisitions combined. Freddy Sanchez (1.8) and Ryan Garko (-4.3) equate to -2.5 RAR. MLB Rumors discusses how this affects Belliard's value going forward.

In spite of Ned Colletti's big free agent acquisitions (Manny Ramirez and Randy Wolf) along with quiet successes like Belliard, some don't believe Colletti should be retained when he becomes a free agent this offseason. There's legitimate claim there. Almost $0.2billion in contracts were given to Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones, and Colletti failed to land a notable starting pitcher at the deadline. The Los Angeles blog Dodgers Rumors ponders: Is The Ned Colletti Era Coming To an End?

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Clayton Kershaw, who separated his right shoulder, will return to the Dodgers Wednesday....to the bullpen.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Xavier Paul	ankle	05/21/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	08/06/2009
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009

San Diego (68-82, 5th, L2, 22.5 GB)

Last Week: 4-2. 2-1 @ Giants, 2-1 vs Rockies. The Padres haven't had a losing week since August 17-23, four weeks ago. In spite of their success, San Diego was assured of a losing season with their Friday loss at Pittsburgh.

Pace: 73-89 (+1).

Divisonal change: No change.

This Week: Last game of 4 game road series @ Pittsburgh tonight. 3 game road series @ Rockies. 3 game road series @ Diamondbacks. Sunday's game in Arizona represents the Padres final road game.

News: There isn't a whole lot of news going around the Padres' camp, but what there is predictably centers around the team's future.

For those that are still masochistic, check out more and more praise for rookie Everth Cabrera. Despite leaping organizations and making the jump from Single-A, Cabrera has posted a 104 OPS+ and .332 wOBA in MLB's most-pitcher friendly park. Not even Rox Girl could have predicted this.

Everth Cabrera

#1 / Short Stop / San Diego Padres

Height: 5-9

Weight: 170

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 17, 1986

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Everth Cabrera	91	331	54	89	17	7	2	30	42	74	24	6	.269	.354	.381

Corey Brock went mad this week, writing multiple Cabrera stories. Here's one. And here's another .

With Cabrera as a cornerstone of the infieild, the Padres are optimistic about 2009 progress, as well they should be. They have been a legitimately strong club in the past month in spite of playing in a "shoddy division." Oh wait.

Via twitter, we learn that Kyle Blanks is done for the year, giving time to let his injured arch heal. The rookie posted a noteworthy 137 OPS+ in 172 PA's this year.

Transactions: Called up OF Luis Durango and RHP Ernesto Frieri.

Injuries: Activated RHP Mike Adams from the 15-day DL. Kevin Kouzmanoff, who has been out since Sept 8 with a strained calf, may return to action today with San Diego.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Kyle Blanks	foot	08/29/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009