SB Nation - Mark Reynolds

2010 in Arizona: First-base

Jim McLennan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 22:52:11 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

The Panda dives back to first, as a pick-off throw "bamboo-zles" Tracy and "shoots" past him during an April game in Phoenix.

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I'm pleased to report my digestive system is no longer participating in a Michael Bay remake of Krakatoa, East of Java. That's probably for the best, since our first-base situation is enough by itself to make me feel queasy. The past season was like the noted Abbott and Costello sketch for Diamondbacks fans: don't like who's starting first-base today? Come back tomorrow, you'll probably be happier. While we didn't quite have the most number of players at the position in the majors [the Cardinals used nine, though that was mostly LaRussa's late-inning shuffling: Phat Albert started at 1B 157 times], it certainly was the most unstable position on the field for Arizona, with seven different names appearing in the starting line-up.

This continues a decade-long trend: not since our inaugural season in 1998, has the same player started even 130 games at first-base, and in the past two seasons, the highs have been just 67 and 57 starts, by Conor Jackson and Chad Tracy respectively. [Today's trivia: name the most-frequent 1B for Arizona each season. Answer at the end of the article] After the jump, we'll take a look at what happened in 2010, and see whether there's hope for things to be any more stable in the upcoming season.

2009 Performance
1. Chad Tracy - 56 starts .237/.306/.389
2. Brandon Allen - 29 starts .202/.284/.385
3. Josh Whitesell - 28 starts .194/.346/.287
4. Mark Reynolds - 24 starts .260/.349/.543
5. Tony Clark - 14 starts .182/.295/.424

It's hard to say how much the numbers above are skewed by the absence of Conor Jackson. He had been a regular there in the previous three seasons, but his shift to left-field would likely have continued last season, given the ongoing failings of Eric Byrnes. However, his absence for the bulk of the season made the dearth of alternatives for Arizona at the position all the more apparent. Overall, first-base produced a line of .228/.321/.396, an OPS of just .717, dead-last in the National League.

Initially, it was Tony Clark and Chad Tracy who split time at the position, but Josh Whitesell was called up just before the managerial switch in early May. Much was expected of him, having hit .328 with 26 homers the previous year in Tucson, but he proved to be a damp squib. Though not helped by a freakishly-low BABIP, he hit only .107 in May and struggled to get his BA above the Uecker line the rest of the way. Some attempts to play Reynolds at first were made: though effective offensively (he hit .323 there), his defense was poor, and the experiment was all but abandoned after the All-Star break

Brandon Allen, acquired from the White Sox in the Tony Peña trade, was the final great hope, getting the bulk of the starts after the middle of August. However, despite similarly-impressive numbers at Triple-A to Whitesell, he struggled equally as much against major-league pitching - left-handers, in particular, gave both prospects fits. This, and a poor performance by Allen in the Arizona Fall League, meant that the Diamondbacks ended the season with just as big a question-mark at first-base as they'd had at any point in the year.

Top Free Agents
Name	Age	2009 Sal.	2009 OPS+
Russell Branyan	34	$1.4m	128
Nick Johnson	32	$5.5m	122
Adam LaRoche	30	$7.05m	122
Hank Blalock	29	$6.2m	86
Carlos Delgado	37	$12m	141
Chance of AZ free-agent activity: high.

2010 Depth-chart and Projections

Brandon Allen - .247/.309/.427
Conor Jackson - .266/.342/.425
~~Josh Whitesell - .238/.341/.385~~

We've already seen, courtesy of the Snyder-Overbay talks, that Arizona are not happy with the current candidates for first-base next season. As a result, it seems likely that they will spend some, albeit a minority, of their war-chest (currently estimated at between $10-14 million) on acquiring a more experienced bat at this position - probably one that can deal with left-handed pitching better than Allen or Whitesell have shown themselves to date. Fernando Tatis is an interesting name recently suggested there by Reynolds rapper, who could offer some position flexibility. The alternative at the moment would be to bring Jackson back from left-field to play the position against LHP - I note that he split his time in the Dominican Winter League between the two positions.

However, this decision would pose a couple of problems in turn. Jackson's defense at 1B is notably worse than in RF, and we'd then also be faced with the job of replacing CoJack in left. The most likely candidates there are Gerardo Parra, who is simlarly vexed by left-handers, and Eric Byrnes, who may not even be with the club. I would rather see Jackson left in left (as it were...) and the team go after someone who can platoon with Allen at 1B. That said, the names available as free agents all have issues of one kind or another e.g. Johnson's injury issues, Branyan would be another left-hander, and my assessment of likely activity as "high" also includes the chances of activitiy not directly involving the signing of a free-agent.

The major trading-chip in this area remains Chris Snyder, and I still think the team will look to move him between now and Opening Day. Even if this is not directly for a first-baseman, the salary relief we'd obtain as a result means we can perhaps then take on a player earning more than we could perhaps otherwise afford (whether at first or another spot, such as in the rotation). As a starting point, the six teams to get the lowest 2009 OPS from their catchers were (in descending order): Milwaukee, Houston, Seattle, Toronto, Tampa, Detroit. Might be a good starting point for shopping Snyder.

We will be interested to follow the development of Allen and Whitesell in 2010 - particularly the former, since it's worth remembering, despite his struggles, that he will still be 23 until February. Only 16 position players in the National League that age or younger got 100 PAs last season [three in AZ, who also had Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra], so there should be no rush to judgement. Allen's playing time will likely be determined both by subsequent moves, and how his own splits develop. If he can learn to hit left-handed pitching, and his overall numbers approach those he posted in the minors, he should be primed for the starting spot in 2011. Those are both mighty-big "ifs", however.

[Update] Josh Whitesell was non-tendered and as a result became a free-agent. The Diamondbacks apparently even tried to sell Whitesell to Japan, but had no luck there; it's clear that Arizona saw no potential of him helping the team in the foreseeable future.

[Trivia answer. Here are the most-frequent starters at 1B each season for Arizona. 1998-99, Travis Lee; 2000, Greg Colbrunn; 2001-02, Mark Grace; 2003, Lyle Overbay; 2004, Shea Hillenbrand; 2005, Chad Tracy; 2006-08, Conor Jackson; 2009, Tracy]

The 2009 'Pitties: MVP

Jim McLennan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 02:59:20 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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Haren, to no great surprise, cantered to victory in the Cy Young award, notching a thoroughly-convincing 86% of votes. Here's to the contest being a little closer in 2010, with Webb and Scherzer perhaps pushing Haren with their own pitching performances. We now move on to the final award: Most Valuable Player for the Diamondbacks in 2009.

You're kinda lucky this isn't just five players' name with a one-line summary such as 'Reynolds: hit the ball hard.' For yesterday, I came down with something rather nasty, stomach bug-wise - I'll spare you the details, but it was like a re-enactment of the Mr Creosote sketch from Monty Python's Meaning of Life. It was not a pleasant night. However, I am a bit better this morning [thanks go to Mrs. SnakePit and her NyQuil, hot sweet tea and damp towels for my forehead], so after the jump, we'll review the five top candidates for Diamondbacks MVP. I can not promise, however, that it will be entirely cut-and-paste free. Hey, I'm still not well...

I've also included the WAR [Wins Above Replacement] value from fangraphs.com, though obviously these do not take into account 'intangibles' such as leadership, etc. which may be considered important when deciding who is 'Most Valuable'. Will Haren's clear lead in this category be outweighed by his absence from the field of play four days out of five? It certainly doesn't seem to have hurt Brandon Webb, winner in both 2006 and 2007. He won't be a factor in this year's poll, and I'm thinking it could be quite close, as you could make a credible case for the majority of the nominees listed. After the jump, we'll list the names and put forward the cases.

Dan Haren: 6.1 WAR, 229.1 IP, 3.14 ERA

Haren posted his fifth straight 200-inning season in 2009, one of only four pitchers with such a streak (alongside Vasquez, Buerhle and Arroyo). Dan was also the best pitcher in the National League over the first-half of the season, with a 2.01 ERA, and a K:BB ratio better than 8:1. He had 18 quality starts in his first 19 outings, including seven straight where he went 7+ innings and allowed two or less runs - there hasn't been a longer streak in the NL since 2001. While Haren cooled off after the break, he still set career highs for IP, K and ERA+ and came within one measly hit of becoming the first NL starter in four years to have a WHIP below one.

Miguel Montero: 3.3 WAR, .294/.355/.478, 16 HR

One of the more pleasant surprises in 2009. Montero produced the best season ever offensively by an Arizona catcher (min. 150 PAs): his OPS of .832 broke Robby Hammock's record set in 2003, as Miggy became one of the top-hitting catchers in the National League. He tied the franchise high for both hits and home-runs at the position, and got more PAs in the majors than over the previous three seasons combined, taking over as our everyday starter behind the plate. Montero held his own against both left- and right-handers, and his defensive abilities grew noticeably better as the season went on. Montero's emergence ensures that catcher is not a position we'll need to worry about in 2010.

Mark Reynolds: 3.9 WAR, .260/.349/.543, 44 HR

Special K lived up to both halves of his nickname, becoming the first Diamondback since 2003 to drive in a hundred runs, and smacking 44 home-runs, including some of the most majestic ones seen in the majors all year, while smashing his own single-season record for strikeouts. Reynolds also developed into a clubhouse presence, not afraid to call out team-mates for their lack of effort, while giving the maximum himself. This showed up in his defense, including some spectactular plays made with wilful disregard for his own safety, but which improved considerably by most objective measures. This was the year when Reynolds truly came of age.

Max Scherzer: 3.2 WAR, 170.1 IP, 4.12 ERA

Questions about Scherzer's stamina coming into 2009 were largely answered: the 25-year old threw over three thousand pitches, ranking him between Cole Hamels and Zach Duke, and gradually stretched out, to the point where he averaged 6.60 IP/start in September, a career high. He also ranked 13th in the league for strikes, at 65%, ahead of Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Scherzer had a 2.16 ERA in June, which included his best outing, 7.2 shutout innings against the Giants. Not helped by his defense - the 16 unearned runs allowed was an NL high - Scherzer simply did it himself, fanning more than a batter per inning.

Justin Upton: 4.5 WAR, .300/.366/.532, 26 HR

Only four qualifying 21-year olds in the expansion era have had a better OPS than Upton produced for us in 2009: Pujols, A-Rod, Griffey and Cesar Cedeno. At his age, it would have been impressive enough for J-Up simply to justify his position, but to lead the team in BA, play in the All-Star Game and get an MVP vote, is an amazing achievement. While he still made his share of mistakes (the 420-foot single; the faked ball-toss), he also delivered more than his share of jaw-dropping moments in virtually all aspects of his game, with some dazzling defensive plays, showcasing the JUpzooka, as well as a prodigious bat.

Poll

Who was Arizona's MVP in 2009?

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 2, Pick 6

raygu — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 18:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

2 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Mark Reynolds (27) strikes out for the 204th time, tying his own najor league record for season strikeouts, as San Francisco Giants' Bengie Molina catches the ball in the third inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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There aren't too many guarantees in life, but Frank McCourt, the owner of the Dodgers, had two guarantee in his arb decisions yesterday- Orlando Hudson and Randy Wolf were not going to accept arbitration. Both had a pretty good year in 2009, and were looking for multi-year contracts this offseason. But F McCourt didn't see it that way. The payback of a few draft picks was not enough for him to take a chance on offering arbitration to Hudson and Wolf.

He can't sell the team fast enough.

Speaking of guarantees, my pick in the Fake Teams early mock draft provides many-Mark Reynolds. Mark Reynolds is guaranteed to strike out alot. He is also guaranteed to hit 30+ HRs and he has a good chance at stealing 15-20 bases again.

Reynolds went 44-98-102-24-.260-.349-.543-.892 in 2009, but he struck out in almost 39% of his at bats. He increased his BB% from 10.6% in 2008 to 11.6% in 2009, and increased his ISO from .219 to .284 in 2009. He increased his HR/FB% from 18.2% to 26% in 2009.

His HR/FB% is not sustainable as it is 6 points above his career average, so I expect his HRs to drop in 2010. But Reynolds is still capable of hitting 35 HRs and stealing 20 bases in 2010. He may not hit for a very high average, but he did increase his average from .239 in 2008 to .260 in 2009, with the help of BABIP of .341, which is lower than his career average of .348.

Bill James projects Reynolds to go 40-103-107-18-.268-.356-.551-.907 in 2010. Is he a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2010?

Poll

Is Mark Reynolds a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2010?

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 2, Pick 2

raygu — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 20:00:20 -0000

by Danny Moloshok - AP

3 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Justin Upton, right, comes into the dugout after scoring after Augie Ojeda was walked by Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher James McDonald with the bases loaded during the 10th inning of a baseball game, Monday, Aug. 31, 2009, in Los Angeles. The Diamondbacks won 5-3. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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This was not an easy pick for me, as I considered Carl Crawford, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira and Mark Reynolds, but I couldn't get away from the upside of J-Up-Justin Upton.

Upton went 26-86-20-.300-..366-.532-.899 in 2009 while watching his K% drop from 34% in 2008 to 26% in 2009. His HR/FB% increased from 15.3% in 2008 to 18.8% in 2009 which coincided with a drop in his FB% from 41.9% in 2008 to 35.7% in 2009. Upton also increased his ISO, or isolated power, from .213 in 2008 to .232 in 2009. Should he be able to maintain his HR/FB% while increasing his FB%, he could easily hit 30 HRs in 2010. I think he can do better than that actually.

Upton not only provided fantasy owners with solid power, but he also contributed 20 SBs in 2009 after stealing only 1 bag in 2008. I think the speed is here to stay as the Diamondbacks struggled to score runs in 2009, and I think that trend continues in 2010. I expect Upton to steal between 20-25 bags in 2010.

Upton is capable of a 30-100-20-.300 season in 2010, and should be drafted accordingly.

Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton get some MVP love

Jim McLennan — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 04:28:50 -0000

While the anointment of Albert Pujols as the 2009 National League Most Valuable Player was the most foregone conclusion since, oh, probably Joe Mauer getting the American League trophy, there was some love shown for the Diamondbacks at the bottom of the ballot. Mark Reynolds finished equal 20th, getting one 8th, 9th and 10th place vote, to tie him with Yuniel Escobar and his fifth-place ballot [I'd like to thank Mrs. Escobar for taking part in this year's balloting]. And Justin Upton finished in 25th with a ninth-place vote.

A complete list of DIamondbacks to receive MVP votes can be found after the jump.

Player	Year	Points/Pos
Matt Williams	1999	269, 3rd
Jay Bell		31, 13th
Randy Johnson		21, 15th
Luis Gonzalez		12, 18th
Randy Johnson	2000	5, 17th
Luis Gonzalez	2001	261, 3rd
Curt Schilling		24, 10th
Randy Johnson		23, 11th
Randy Johnson	2002	127, 7th
Curt Schilling		53, 10th
Junior Spivey		8, 14th
Luis Gonzalez	2003	4, 25th
Randy Johnson	2004	7, 19th
Eric Byrnes	2007	43, 11th
Jose Valverde		19, 14th
Brandon Webb		15, 17th
Brandon Webb	2008	14, 17th
Stephen Drew		2, 26th
Mark Reynolds	2009	6, 20th
Justin Upton		2, 25th

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part VII: Base-running

Jim McLennan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:00:14 -0000

by Rick Scuteri - AP

Upton is caught stealing third base Pirates third baseman Andy LaRoche during a game on July 23.

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After a couple of weeks off, we get to the final part of the 2009 season review, while we look at the Diamondbacks' performance on the base-paths. This doesn't just cover the straight stolen-base, though this is the most immediately obvious component of base-running. There's also factors like going from first to third on a single: not quite as flashy as the swiped bag, but still an extra 90 feet you otherwise wouldn't have.

After the jump, we'll break down a few numbers, and see where the Arizona Diamondbacks stacked up against the rest of their National League rivals. For each category, we'll also take a look at the individual numbers, and see who the heroes and villains were for the team. But let's start, as you might expect, with a nice table of data:

Tm	SB	CS	SB%	PO	OOB	BT	XBT%
ARI	102	40	72%	22	60	131	42%
ATL	58	26	69%	15	50	121	38%
CHC	56	34	62%	11	46	120	36%
CIN	96	40	71%	18	63	125	41%
COL	106	55	66%	26	75	186	47%
FLA	75	35	68%	17	62	172	38%
HOU	113	44	72%	9	47	118	38%
LAD	116	48	71%	26	56	154	44%
MIL	68	37	65%	14	47	154	34%
NYM	122	44	73%	16	69	169	40%
PHI	119	28	81%	21	44	122	39%
PIT	90	32	74%	18	64	136	38%
SDP	82	29	74%	20	52	119	38%
SFG	78	28	74%	11	47	159	38%
STL	75	31	71%	19	54	138	44%
WSN	73	40	65%	17	45	131	39%
LgAvg	89	37	71%	18	55	141	39%

Stolen bases
Arizona stole a total of 102 bases, and were caught stealing forty times - the former number is good enough for sixth in the league, and their success rate of 72% was fractionally better than NL average (71%). However, this conceals a significant difference with regard to stealing second- and third-base. For the former, we had a solid 74% success-rate (NL avg: 71%), but when trying to take third, we were only 18-for-28, a 64% rate. League average, perhaps surprisingly, increased to 73% - I say surprisingly, because it's generally thought of as a harder job, because the catcher has less distance to cover with his throw to third.

Chris Young was, far and away, the best on the team at taking third, being successful on six out of seven attempts. He was actually less successful when taking second, where he was safe on only five of eight attempts. Gerardo Parra showed reversed numbers too, with more good steals of third (3-of-4) than second (2-of-8) by him. Conversely, from the 2009 numbers, Mark Reynolds should be nailed to second-base: while he was great at reaching it from first (22-5, for a 81% rate), he failed on four out of six attempt to get from there to third. Justin Upton had the best numbers on the team going to second, of anyone with more than two attempts, at 84%.

And for the record, the Diamondbacks were credited with one attempted steal of home. By Kevin Mulvey. Though as you can probably guess, describing it as a "steal" is a bit generous: our pitcher was caught day-dreaming at third-base against the Giants on September 30th, got himself picked off and involved in a brief rundown before retreating, sheepishly, to the dugout.

Pickoffs
Definitely an area in which the team needs to improve, though we're hardly alone in the division - four of the top five teams for having pickoffs inflicted on them, play in the NL West. The Diamondbacks' total of 22 trailed only the Dodgers and Rockies (tied with 26), and straight pickoffs - rather than those where the runner was caught trying to steal - were responsible for the bulk of those in Arizona, fourteen. There aren't any numbers available to show how these break down by base: while I've a feeling we were particular bad at getting ourselves picked off second, this is only my anecdotal hunch.

No doubt who should be looking to work on this in the off-season. Mark Reynolds led the team with seven pickoffs, more than twice as much as anyone else, and good enough for third in the entire National League (trailing Nyjer Morgan and an ex-Diamondbacks, Emilio Bonifacio, who had nine and eight respectively). Five of Reynolds' erasures were straight pickoffs, and two were in the process of stealing a base. Young and Upton were next, albeit all the way back on three, and that's probably no surprise: age and experience are likely significant factors here.

Taking the extra base
We should look at this in conjuction with the total number of outs made on the basepaths: this might be while trying to advance on a sacrifice fly, a passed ball/wild-pitch or doubled-off on a line-drive [basically, any out not covered in the two sections above]. In total, the team took 131 bases and made 60 outs, a ratio of 2.18, which is below the league average, 2.56. However, the team were more aggressive than most teams, taking an extra base e.g. going from first-to-third on a single, 42% of the time, good for fourth in the National League.

I was astonished to find that the man who led the team in stolen bases, Mark Reynolds, was actually among the most conservative on the team, with an extra base percentage of only 30%. Some of this may be small sample-size - we are discussing only 43 opportunities over the entire season - but I'd certainly not have expected him to be below Miguel Montero (a healthy 44%). Best on the team was Ryan Roberts, who posted a 56% rate in 34 chances. Upton and Young are also looking good, at 50% and 49%. In limited playing-time, Conor Jackson was 5-of-7: be interesting to see how the Dominican Winter League SB leader performs on the base-paths in 2010.

We can break the overal "extra base" number down, into the three situations where taking an extra base is possible: on first when a single is hit (we'll call this 1S); on first when a double is hit (1D); and on second when a single is hit (2S). In all other situations, the batter should score in almost every circumstance. Now, this doesn't take into account location of the hit - some singles will be a great deal easier to score from second on than others [such as when Upton hits a single 420 feet off the wall...], but over the course of a season, things should tend to even out.

Here are the percentages for Arizona compared to NL average. 1S: 29%/27%. 1D: 46%/44%. 2S: 64%/58%. This does tend to suggest that we were more aggressive than most in each situation, but particularly when going from second to home on a single. Given the youth of our roster, this would seem to make logical sense. However, I am not going to split these down into individual performances, because we are really getting down to the level where random chance makes it hard to draw any conclusions: no-one had more than 26 chances in any of the categories.

EqBRR
This stands for Equivalent Base Running Runs and is a Baseball Prospectus stat that "measures the number of runs contributed by a player's advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table." It's the sum of various components: Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR), each reflecting a different aspect of the base-running game.

All told, the team ranked 21st in the majors, with an EqBRR of -6.8 runs. Most of this came from EqSBR, which was responsible for -6.36 of those runs. Breaking the numbers down to individuals, the top three were Upton (+3.2), Roberts (+1.7) and Jackson (+1.7) - again, be interesting to see how the last-named holds up, if he can come back fully healthy in 2010. Down at the other end of the spectrum, the worst trio were Chris Young (-2.1), Chris Snyder (-2.3) and Mark Reynolds, who was rated at -4.5, no doubt in part because of all the pickoffs.

Overall
From a statistical point of view, base-running is a relatively minor component of the game, compared to pitching or hitting. But it's also one over which a team has much more control - while pure speed is a talent, the ability to use it is a skill which can be taught. However, above and beyond the direct impact of good (or bad) base-running, I tend to think it can also have a contribution to "intangibles." Successful fundamental baseball provides a psychological boost, both to the player responsible and their team-mates, just as it does to us as fans watching; conversely, few things can suck the wind out of your sails worse than a blunder between the bags.

As such, while some aspects of the team's work in 2009 were credible, there is certainly room for improvement, especially in the pick-off department. Aggressive (but not to the point of psychotic) base-running should continue, but I'd like to see even more use being made of those fresh legs. Young, Reynolds and Upton are all capable of putting up 25 steals next season, and Jackson may not be too far behind, if his DWL performance is anything to go by. Add in a few more bunt hits, for we have a number of speed/power guys who should be taking advantage of infields that have to play back against them, and it's an area that I hope to see become a strength of the team in 2010.

Fantasy Baseball: Early Mock Draft-Round 1, Pick 10

raygu — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

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With pick 10 in the first round, I pondered selecting Evan Longoria or Mark Reynolds, but decided to go with a true power hitter, Prince Fielder.

Fielder was second in the majors in HRs in 2009 as he went 46-141-.299-.412-.602-1.014, and approached 50 HRs for the second time in three years. He improved his BB/K% from 0.63 to 0.80 in 2009 as he increased his BB% from 12.5% in 2008 to 15.7% in 2009. He also increased his HR/FB% from 18.2% in 2008 to 23.1% in 2009.

If Fielder can maintain the high BB/K%, and slightly increase his HR/FB%, Prince can approach 50 HRs for the 3rd time in four seasons. With that said, Bill James predicts Prince will go 44-124-.286-.393-.574-.967 in 2010. James see a slight regression in Prince's OBP, but I have a feeling he can continue to show a solid eye at the plate.

Should Fielder continue to show an improved eye at the plate, Prince could exceed James prediction of 44-124 again in 2010. Milwaukee will need a bounce back season from outfielder Corey Hart and a solid sopphomore season from third baseman Casey McGehee to protect Fielder in the middle of the Brewers lineup, as well.

Poll

Will Prince Fielder hit 50 HRs in 2010?

Yes, his improved batting eye and HR/FB will stick.

29 votes

No, the lineup behind him is not very good.

27 votes

56 votes | Poll has closed

This Week (and a bit) in Diamondbacks Baseball: Silver Sluggers, relevance and we back Buckner

Jim McLennan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 17:23:04 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

With Jedi mind-tricks like levitation in his locker, Billy Buckner will be a force to be reckoned with in 2010.

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Been a somewhat mad few days - the deadline for our Fear FIlm Festival has meant we've spent most of last week watching indie horror flicks, from the excellent to the...not-so excellent. Fortunately, not a lot happening on the Diamondbacks' front - I should mention that TWIDB entries will appear only on an "as needed" basis throughout the winter. The GM winter meetings proved largely bereft of significant actual Diamondbacks news - and I'd simply have ended up repeating Nick Piecoro's entirely acceptable coverage of the event. Which is what I'm about to do anyway. We're still kicking the tires on Livan Hernandez, but might also be looking at Randy Wolf; the team is interested in bringing back Augie Ojeda; it's not going to be easy to trade Chris Snyder.

Yeah, like I said: not much there worth starting the presses for, never mind stopping them. Still, after the jump, I'll unleash our crack research team, and see if there's anything we might have missed about the Diamondbacks of late.

The Silver Slugger went to Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals, which probably counts as a mild traveshamockery. You're expecting some passionate plea in support of Mark Reynolds' candidacy for the award, no doubt - and he did have more home-runs. But despite the name, the award is not just about power, but all offensive numbers, an on that basis, should have gone to Pablo Sandoval. His OPS was more than fifty points higher than Zimmerman's, with a higher BA, OBP and SLG. Zimmerman (and, indeed, Reynolds) did have more RBI than Sandoval, but that's mostly due to the San Francisco offense, a.k.a. Pablo and the Seven Dwarfs. Here's the stats for the top five third-basemen in the NL, as measured by OPS+. See if you can work out how Zimmerman was superior.

Rk	Player	OPS+	Age	Tm	PA	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Pablo Sandoval	144	22	SFG	633	79	189	25	90	52	83	5	5	.330	.387	.556	.943
2	Ryan Zimmerman	131	24	WSN	693	110	178	33	106	72	119	2	0	.292	.364	.525	.888
3	Aramis Ramirez	131	31	CHC	342	46	97	15	65	28	43	2	1	.317	.389	.516	.905
4	Mark Reynolds	125	25	ARI	662	98	150	44	102	76	223	24	9	.260	.349	.543	.892
5	Casey McGehee	124	26	MIL	394	58	107	16	66	34	67	0	2	.301	.360	.499	.859

As noted in a fanpost, Dan Bickley has returned to flogging the Diamondbacks in his latest column, in part because of the idiotic comments apparently made by Colin Cowherd suggesting the D-backs be contracted [no doubt partly out of spite due to the situation with frequent show guest, Eric Byrnes]. "D-Backs in battle to stay relevant," says Bickley. Well, duh. Hello? It's the off-season? How "relevant" are the Cardinals in April? While there are some good points - an improvement over the usual Bickley nonsense - it still contains nonsense like, "Can we get Orlando Hudson back?" and "Ticket buyers have become scarce. With the Cardinals soaring and the Suns surging, this team better find some competitive traction soon."

Cardinals soaring? The team that requires an endless series of ticket-selling extensions to avoid TV blackouts? Suns surging? Hang on, not even two weeks previously, someone was writing in the Republic, "The way basketball was in Phoenix for the past four years [it] might never be again. With a new season barely under way, the Suns have embraced reality... They already have conceded that their impressive sellout streak will end Sunday.. More than 2,000 seats remain for the second home game of a new season... They likely will return to the playoffs. But will they ever recapture the magic? It will take many more victories...to challenge the football team, the one that painted the town from orange to red." Who was that writer, questioning the Suns' relevance? Ah, yes: Dan Bickley.

"Many more victories"? Try nine. For here we are, the 9-2 Suns are Bickley's darlings, and had a massive lead in the azcentral.com poll to determine the town's favorite team. Well, there's a shocker. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: sports fans in this state are about as loyal as a Van Buren hooker. There are so many front-runners, they could re-enact the Boston Marathon, and possess the sporting memories (plus, too often, the sporting knowledge) of a goldfish. The solution to the Diamondbacks' alleged lack of "relevance" is simple. Win more games. That's all it takes in Phoenix, and the fans will come flocking back, especially after the Suns and Cardinals are both one and done in the post-season. Now, how does the team win more games? Good question...

Andrew Kneeland takes a look at three signings the D-backs need to make to improve in 2010: Russell Branyan at 1B, leftie Jarrod Washburn for the rotation and Mike Gonzalez for the bullpen. Hmmm. Not so sure. Branyan is another left-handed 1B, and we already have that side of things adequately covered, in Brandon Allen and Josh Whitesell. Washburn's 3.78 AL ERA looks very nice, but was based on a .257 BABIP [his career average is .280], so he'll likely be over-valued this winter. He's also an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and we know how that plays at Chase. And a three year, $15m contract for a middle-reliever? Not my idea of where we should be spending the money. The last sentence of the piece, "He is an intern at the Green Valley News," explains a lot. Thanks for playing, Andrew.

Former Diamondback Orlando Hudson = not happy. In particular, not happy about Joe Torre, and the way their relationship imploded as the season went on, with Hudson seeing less and less playing-time. Said O-Dawg, "My teammates talked to me about it more than Joe did, but I never had any answers because (Torre) and I never talked. There was no conversation... I guess he felt I wasn't the man for the job if he wasn't putting me in there." Doesn't seem likely, based on this, that Hudson will be back in Chavez Ravine next season. I'm sure Bickley will be pleased by that.

Brandon Webb was seen at the PIR over the weekend, at the NASCAR races - not too much of a shock, where else would a good ol' Kentucky boy who loves hunting be? Even though the Diamondbacks do have a NASCAR connection - the Hall of Fame racing team is owned by former Arizona shareholders Jeff Moorad + Tom Garfinkel, and Panda Express CEO Tom Davin - we won't be seeing Webb on the track any time soon. He said "It's a little too dangerous for me out there. I'll stick to the mound."

Here's a name from past: Wally Backman. His tenure as Diamondbacks manager was among the shortest in major-league history, after unsavory incidents from his past came to light, and he was fired four days and zero games after being hired - possibly the low point of the nightmare which was 2004. Five and a half years later, he has finally made it back to a major-league organization. He did have a couple of spells in indie ball, but has now been hired as manager of the Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets Single-A affiliate. I can't think of a more perfect organization for Backman.

I've been playing about with the enhanced Play Index feature over at Baseball-Reference.com, which now allows you to search in a variety of new ways. For instance, I found out that twice last season, the Diamondbacks used ten players in a game who were aged 25 or younger, on June 26 and July 4. [This week's trivia - how many of those young gentlement can you name? Between the two contests, there were a dozen in total] That's a number unmatched by any team in the majors - only the Padres and Braves managed more than eight - and is more evidence for the ongoing youth movement of the roster.

Speaking of B-R.com, in the past, we have sponsored various Diamondbacks there. These have included such illustrious names as Chris Snyder, Miguel Montero and Chad Tracy, as well as the not-quite-so illustrious ones of Dustin Nippert and Jailen Peguero. The departure of Yusmeiro Petit for pastures Pacific Northwestern means we had to look at putting our name on another page, and keeping ourselves in the ranks of supporters of this splendid reference site, alongside a couple of other posters here. But who should we pick? The ones available were somewhat limited, especially among the position players - we could get John Hester for $15, and that was about it.

Fortunately, things were a little more open on the pitching side. Though all the big names were locked up, we could still get Kevin Mulvey ($10), Bryan Augenstein ($5), Leo Rosales ($5), Blaine Boyer ($10) or Esmerling Vasquez ($5). However, in the end, we went for Billy Buckner at $10. He has a good chance to be in the rotation next year, and is also cheap. We like cheap. Something temporary has been/will be stuck up on the page as a placeholder, but I am entirely open to suggestions as to the text to go on the page. 255-character limit, so get your thinking caps on, folks. Mind you, this has likely condemned Buckner to injury, trade or abduction by aliens between now and Opening Day. Sorry, Billy.

[Answer to the trivia question: On June 26th, the ten players used by the Diamondbacks who were aged 25 or younger were: Montero, Upton, Reynolds, Parra, Young, Romero, Buckner, Zavada, Vasquez, Gutierrez. On July 4th, Petit and Scherzer (as a PH!) replaced Buckner and Vasquez.]

SBN Awards: NL MVP (hint, it starts with a P)

DyingQuail — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:00:47 -0000

by Matt Rourke - AP

Is this Pujols? No. Is it an incredible dick-ish picture of Jayson Werth that I've been waiting ages to have a legitimate use for? Yes.

View full size photo »

Unanimity for presidents has been reserved solely for Washington. For Albert Pujols in 2009, all the denizens of SBN nation who cast a ballot lauded him with the honor being the unanimous NL MVP. Can anyone even make an argument against this?

For myself, I literally just voted by WAR, but I did slip Michael Bourn in at 8th because, I could and I thought he deserved it. I obviously wasn't the only one pulling some homerism, so I'm not too concerned.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	Pts
1	Albert Pujols	St. Louis Cardinals	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	434
2	Hanley Ramirez	Florida Marlins	-	6	8	11	2	1	2	-	-	-	220
3	Chase Utley	Philadelphia Phillies	-	7	11	2	3	1	-	1	-	1	192
4	Prince Fielder	Milwaukee Brewers	-	5	4	4	7	7	1	-	-	-	186
5	Troy Tulowitzki	Colorado Rockies	-	4	1	5	2	3	3	4	1	2	134
6	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	-	4	1	-	1	2	2	3	1	-	79
7	Ryan Howard	Philadelphia Phillies	-	4	-	1	4	1	-	-	3	1	79
8	Ryan Zimmerman	Washington Nationals	-	-	1	3	3	3	3	1	-	2	79
9	Adrian Gonzalez	San Diego Padres	-	-	1	-	3	3	2	4	3	4	71
10	Pablo Sandoval	San Francisco Giants	-	-	-	1	2	2	2	3	4	3	57
11	Matt Kemp	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	1	1	1	1	5	3	-	1	56
12	Ryan Braun	Milwaukee Brewers	-	-	2	-	-	2	2	1	1	-	39
13	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	-	1	2	25
14	Derrek Lee	Chicago Cubs	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	1	3	2	25
15	Andre Ethier	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	1	2	2	-	-	-	24
16	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	1	-	-	1	1	4	1	23
17	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	1	16
18	Matt Holliday	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	1	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	12
19	Joey Votto	Cincinnati Reds	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	11
20	Mark Reynolds	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	1	2	10
21	Todd Helton	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-	7
22	Jayson Werth	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1	1	6
23	Adam Dunn	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	3	5
24	Juan Pierre	Los Angeles Dodgers	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	4
25	Justin Upton	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
26	Raul Ibanez	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
27	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	1	4
28	Brian McCann	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
29	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	-	4
30	Michael Bourn	Houston Astros	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
31	Yadier Molina	St. Louis Cardinals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	3
32	Nyjer Morgan	Washington Nationals	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1
33	Yunel Escobar	Atlanta Braves	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	1

My question is: Juan Pierre, really?