SB Nation - Buster Posey

Class of 2005: The Angels Best Breakout Candidates

rghan — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 18:42:16 -0000

Folks with long baseball memories recall 2005 as the year the Angels drafted but failed to sign Buster Posey and Brian Matusz (best Eddie Bane quote ever: "[Matusz] wanted a million bucks. Guess we should have given it to him..."). The Halos obviously missed the boat with those two, but harvested a solid collection of players currently headlined by Peter Bourjos, Sean O'Sullivan and Trevor Bell. At the time, the Angels were also congratulating themselves on snagging five other teenage talents from the draft and international FA market whose names should be familiar here: Ryan Mount, P.J. Phillips, Angel Castillo, Jeremy Moore, and Luis Jimenez. Each was the quintessential high ceiling prospect, an athletic, up-the-middle player with tons of projection, but who would need plenty of development time. Four and a half years later, not one of those guys rank among the Halos' top 30 prospects, but they continue to flash some of the best tools in the organization.

Professional baseball is littered with the "skeleton frames of burnt out" athletes who never developed MLB-caliber skills, so picking just one of the 2005 cohort to breakout in 2010 is a roll of the dice. For me, the interesting thing here is not so much the individual players themselves, but the quantity of potential four and five tool athletes who will make a run at turning their considerable natural talent into baseball skills. The laws of averages suggests that one of Mount, Phillips, Castillo, Moore, or Jimenez will break through in High A or AA, and potentially crack most Top 5 Angels Prospect lists next year. So here they are, in descending order, your top minor league breakout candidates of 2010.

5) Ryan Mount - .253/.302/.345, 80 OPS+ with 4 HR and 5 SB's. -1 glove.

2005 - 2^nd Round, 58^th Overall, signed for $615,000

The difference between Mount's promising '08 campaign and his disappointing '09? A dozen homeruns. That's it...

Overall, his K-rate, walk rate, batted ball distribution and BABIP changed very little. He just hit 12 or so fly balls that died in the Travs' endless outfield instead of clearing the fence. No doubt Arkansas is a crummy park for hitters, but the 80 OPS+ underscores the limits of a player whose value is tied to good-but-not-elite pop. Batting .208/.250/.264 over 53 Arizona Fall League AB's did nothing to boost his stock (though he looks good in this video). While it's possible that Mount jumps to AAA next year, I think the favorable hitting environment would be counterproductive to his development: it would be a hard thing to commit yourself to a new approach when you're suddenly hitting .280 with power in Salt Lake City's thin air. Taking another shot at AA while fellow second baseman Nate Sutton advances to AAA makes far more sense. Moreover, recently signed minor league free agent Alex Valdez is coming off of a strong '09 season in AA, is currently smoking it in the Dominican, hitting .296/.353/.454, and will probably also move ahead of Mount on the organization's thinning middle infield depth chart.

4) P.J. Phillips - .232/.271/.366, 67 OPS+ with 10 HR, 23 SB's and +5 glove (in CF)

2005 - 2^nd Round, 71^st Overall, signed for $505,000

On the surface, Phillips' season looks far worse than even the disappointing .275/.311/.416 line he put up at the same level in ‘08. However, there are qualifications to consider: back in April, the Halos bumped him from shortstop to second base, where he gritted it out defensively but hit only .202/.237/.327; in the early summer, he shifted to the outfield, looked more comfortable, and hit .261/.304/.411 from that point on - certainly no breakout, but a step in the right direction. Moreover, he kicked ass in centerfield, drawing good reviews from both scouts and TotalZone. I saw him in August and he looked like the best athlete in a Quakes' uniform, ripping a double and a triple, running the bases well, and making two outstanding plays in the field. Most promisingly, he posted a solid .281/.333/.422 line against good pitching in the AFL after taking Pete Bourjos' roster spot on the Mesa Sox. The video here shows him working the count and driving the ball, providing hope for a 2010 breakout. Advanced pitching and the Travs' spacious ballpark will eat him alive if he doesn't change his approach, but again, take heart from Phillips working the count in the video above. I posted a picture of him below - that lanky frame remains extraordinary projectable.

3) Angel Castillo - .244/.321/.395, +103 OPS with 13 HR's, 16 SB's and +10 glove

2005 - August Signing, Bonus Unknown

Castillo is one of two guys in the Angels' system who could come out of nowhere in '10 and whack 30 homeruns. He also plays an outstanding right fielder, shows speed on the base paths, and will take one for the team at every opportunity (he tied teammate Roberto Lopez for most HBP's in the system last year with 17). However, while he did cut his k-rate by about 4% from ‘08, he still whiffed in nearly 25% of his '09 PA's. The most frustrating yet tantalizing thing about Castillo? He hit .298/.378/.558 against lefties last year (the flip side is he hit an anemic .224/.288/.348 against righties). Scouting reports have harped on Castillo's inability to hit breaking balls, so the extreme split makes sense. I saw him absolutely crush an offspeed pitch from a righty last June (a game winning homerun), and when I asked him about it he acknowledged that he was sitting on the change-up. If he ever learns to hit something with break (F-U Jobu!), watch out, because he has the tools of an allstar. The Halos signed him as a seventeen year old, so his clock is ticking a little too fast for him to still be in A-ball: he'll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next year, and will have to make the 40-man by 2011 to stick with the Halos.

2) Jeremy Moore - .282/.336/.456, 108 OPS+ with 13 HR, 18 SB, and a +8 glove.

2005 - 6^th Round Pick, 193^rd Overall, Signed for $100,000.

The sabermetric wisdom pegs the toolsey Moore to regress - not breakout - after an '09 campaign that featured a 28% k-rate and well-above-average .388 batting average on balls in play. That's fuel for the haters, sure, but let's consider the positives: Moore actually reduced his k-rate by 4% over his 2008 numbers, he improved his walk rate by 2%, he had no problem squaring balls up, and his batted ball distribution - 19% line drives and 47% groundballs - supports an above-average BABIP for a speedy left-handed hitter. His best games of the season came in a brief July promotion to AA, so the Trav's cavernous park didn't trip him up much. Lastly, his defense was outstanding across the board, a virtue that outfielders Terry Evans and Chris Pettit didn't share in ‘09. Is he a late bloomer? The exceptional homerun power that he showed in Cedar Rapids was absent in the first half of ‘09, but could reemerge. His 56% stolen base success rate this season was terrible, but hopefully failure taught him a thing or two about when to swipe a bag. He showed a slight reverse split, handling lefties better than righties, so there's no sign of a platoon weakness (yet). All that could add up to him becoming a left-handed Terry Evans - which, fair or not, is more valuable than the right-handed Terry Evans - or even better. Or he could flop, but I have a good feeling about him. See the picture below.

1) Luis Jimenez, 3B - (2008 stats) .331/.361/.630, 151 OPS+ with 15 HR's, 6 SB's, and +5 glove.

2005 - August Signing, Bonus Unknown (as a catcher)

Here's the other guy who could come out of nowhere and knock 30 HR's in 2010. Luis "Lucho" Jimenez made all of the top prospect lists last year on the strength of two consecutive homerun titles, a crazy good (even for the Pioneer League) .293 ISO, solid contact rate, and scouting reports that said he could be at least an average third baseman. Sadly, he tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder in an ‘08 game where he made two diving plays - one trying to make a stop at the hot corner, and one diving back to first to avoid a pick-off - and succumbed to a surgery that sidelined him through 2009. He's currently on the AZL Halos' roster, presumably rehabbing, but where he slots in come 2010 is a mystery - if he's healthy enough to slot in at all. Do the Halos send him to Cedar Rapids, taking at-bats away from Dillon Baird, Casey Haerther and Mike Wing while ignoring Jimenez' ticking minor league free agency clock? Or do the Halos skip him to Rancho to reunite with his cohort, and hope for California League fireworks? At this point there are more questions than data to chew over, so all we can do is wait and watch for this guy in the boxscore.

Poll

Who's your bet to breakout in 2010?

Down on the Farm: Project Prospects Top 25 NL West Prospects

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 14:00:32 -0000

by Ross D. Franklin - AP

3 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Brandon Allen connects on an RBI double against the San Francisco Giants in the second inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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Adam Foster from Project Prospect posted his Top 25 NL West prospects yesterday over at Project Prospect.

Here's a glimpse at the top 5:

1. Buster Posey

2. Madison Bumgarner

3. James Darnell

4. Jaff Decker

5. Jhoulys Chacin

Here is what Adam has to say about a guy I recently traded for in the UBA league:

Brandon Allen

From solid AA bat to PCL HR machine to MLB K-king -- 40 Ks over 116 MLB PA

It remains to be seen if Allen will stick with the Diamondbacks out of spring training. Even though he didn't hit for a high average in the AFL, he did lead the league in walks with 22.

Down on the Farm: Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects in the NL West

raygu — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 15:41:02 -0000

Baseball America recently completed their Top 10 prospects for each NL West Team, and since I took the plunge and subscribed for 3 months, I bring you the Top 10s for the NL West. That's all I figured I needed to get access to the Top 10's for all major league teams. I have already provided you with the Top 10's for the NL East and NL Central teams. Today I bring you the Top 10's from the NL West.

Giants

1.	Buster Posey, c
2.	Madison Bumgarner, lhp
3.	Zack Wheeler, rhp
4.	Thomas Neal, of
5.	Dan Runzler, lhp
6.	Tommy Joseph, c
7.	Roger Kieschnick, of
8.	Ehire Adrianza, ss
9.	Brandon Crawford, ss
10.	Francisco Peguero, of

More after the jump:

Padres

1. Donavan Tate, of

2. Simon Castro, rhp

3. James Darnell, 3b

4. Jaff Decker, of

5. Logan Forsythe, 3b

6. Cory Luebke, lhp

7. Wynn Pelzer, rhp

8. Everett Williams, of

9. Edinson Rincon, 3b

10. Aaron Poreda, lhp

Rockies

1.	Tyler Matzek, lhp
2.	Christian Friederich, lhp
3.	Wilin Rosario, c
4.	Jhoulys Chacin, rhp
5.	Hector Gomez, ss
6.	Eric Young Jr., 2b/of
7.	Tim Wheeler, of
8.	Rex Brothers, lhp
9.	Esmil Rogers, rhp
10.	Nolan Arenado, 3b

Dodgers

1.

Dee Gordon, ss

2.

Chris Withrow, rhp

3.

Aaron Miller, lhp

4.

Ethan Martin, rhp

5.

Josh Lindblom, rhp

6.

Scott Elbert, lhp

7.

Andrew Lambo, of

8.

Ivan DeJesus Jr., ss

9.

Trayvon Robinson, of

10.

Allen Webster, rhp

Diamondbacks

1. Jarrod Parker, rhp

2. Bobby Borchering, 3b

3. A.J. Pollock, of

4. Brandon Allen, 1b

5. Daniel Schlereth, lhp

6. Chris Owings

7. Mike Belfiore, lhp

8. Marc Krauss, of

9. Ryan Wheeler, 1b

10. Collin Cowgill, of

Astros Winter Meeting, Day Three: Links, Thoughts and Idle Speculation

davoag — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:54:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Unless you have this man closing games for you, do you need a big-name closer? And yes, I was referring to Yogi...

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Look, I'm all for conventional wisdom. There is usually a reason it's conventional; it's worked for years and years. It's what people do. In baseball, it's what teams do to win. I don't mock all conventional wisdom in baseball. Some of it is very sound. One thing I can't figure out, however, is why this one fact has become so crucial to a team's offseason goals. Why do the Astros 'need' to find a closer this winter? Just because they lost their closer from last season?

Let's consider last season*. How many teams went into the 2009 season with unsettled or unproven closers? That would be 11. Here's the complete list, followed by some quick thoughts on the situations.

*This isn't the most scientific study, since I'm looking just at teams from 2009 and not expanding the data range past that. I acknowledge that. Let's move past it.

Tampa Bay (84-78) Had Percival ostensibly as closer, but pitched 10 innings in 2009 and was not used as closer much early. Still had six saves, but so did five other members of bullpen.
Toronto (75-87) Knew BJ Ryan would be back at some point, never signed anyone as replacement.
Detroit (86-77) Had a group of a couple players, sorted itself out during the season.
Seattle (85-77) Found David Aardsma off junk pile.
Oakland (75-87) Went with all-kids, Andrew Bailey emerged as closer
Florida (87-75) Went with unproven kid in Matt Lindstrom, moved to Leo Nunez halfway through season.
Washington (59-103) Went with Mike McDougal, had okay season.
St. Louis (91-71) Found Ryan Franklin after going through motions with several others
LA Dodgers (95-67) Broxton saved some games at end of 2008, but still unknown entity going into 2009
San Diego (75-87) Entered season with Heath Bell as closer, no prior experience
Arizona (70-92) Let Brandon Lyon walk,used Qualls as new closer
Atlanta (86-76) Traded for Soriano, but also had Mike Gonzalez

Obviously, there were some teams that were going to be bad no matter what. They'd made the decision to rebuild and thus, didn't invest heavily in a closer. Those teams (Washington, Oakland, San Diego) finished with losing records. The Padres found Heath Bell could be a successful closer and the A's had the same thing happen with Andrew Bailey.

The rest of the teams? 7 of the 11 had winning records. There are numerous examples of teams being killed by not having a late-inning guy. That's the 2008 Mets excuse, anyway (forcing them to spend ungodly amounts of money on JJ Putz and K-Rod). I think, however, that a large majority of teams don't necessarily need to focus on getting a closer as part of their success. Finding good players and putting them in the bullpen will work itself out. Why spend the money on a luxury item when you can win without one?

Maybe this is all rationalization since the Brewers are going to swoop in and sign both LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf in the same day. I really believe that the Astros success in 2010 won't hinge on who pitches the ninth inning. Houston will be an average-to-below average team no matter who the closer is.

Onto the links:

Add the Cardinals to the list of Miguel Tejada suitors. Well, maybe not...it's just that Tony LaRussa likes him. Which he revealed for the sole purpose of driving me crazy. Would St. Louis play Tejada at shortstop or third base?
Could the Tigers end up being Jose Valverde's landing spot? The Granderson/Jackson deal saved them about 10-12 million dollars, depending on how much Jackson gets in arbitration. That puts them in perfect position to pick up a player like Valverde for the back end of the bullpen. It would also give the Astros the 19th pick in the 2010 draft. Apparently, the Nationals had interest but pulled back due to his cost. Did Valverde's agent overestimate his market?
Here's a nice defense of the Pudge Rodriguez signing. While I agree the human aspect of baseball decisions is often minimized by everyone, this seems a bit much. For one, it was widely reported when Pudge joined the Astros that he really doesn't prepare for the mental side of the game very well and is mostly concerned with hitting. Sure, he may provide moral support out there on the mound, but don't look for him to tell Strasberg what kind of pitches this guy doesn't want to see.Aaron Gleeman seems to agree with me, too.
I don't know what's more disturbing; that the White Sox could beat us out for Putz's services (and that that would be considered a bad thing) or that Matt Thornton uses the term 'bromance.' I have nothing more to say.
One of the better Twitter feeds during the Winter Meetings has been Will Carroll's. The Baseball Prospectus writer was profiled by his hometown newspaper and has apparently been one of the stars of the Indianapolis show. As someone who purchased his Carroll Guide to Sports Injuries, just so I could sound smart when I talk about Lis Franc-type injuries, I am very appreciative he's in the business.
Finally, here's a little prospect talk for those minor league nuts in the audience:
Some data on player speeds out of the box in the Arizona Fall League. The guys at Project Prospect only timed Castro twice and he fell into the below-average category, but he may have suffered the same fate as Buster Posey: fatigue. From what I'd heard to that point, Castro should have average speed in the majors.
We were recently contact by a site with some great prospect video (though it is a pay site). One of the profiles is on Henry Villar. Some very good video here with lots of pitches thrown. I didn't see any closeups from the side to tell how his arm mechanics looked, but could see some other things. His delivery is relatively smooth, but the fact he falls off to the first base side so heavily means it might not be as repeatable as you'd like. He's also not in great fielding position when he finishes. His arm slot doesn't look to put too much stress on his delivery and for a hard thrower, he certainly has a free-and-easy motion. Not too many warning signs for injury down the road.
Here's a video of Ross Seaton. I have to say, this was pretty encouraging. While Seaton did struggle with command issues in this particular start, it was a TON of video on his delivery. I can see why scouts would like him; Seaton has a very smooth delivery throughout. He lands in a balanced position, it's not too violent of an arm motion. His arm slot seems comfortable, though he does tend to miss the same slot sometimes. His elbow does not seem to fly forward before the ball and he seems perfectly balanced to field after the play. In fact, the end of his delivery reminds me a little of Greg Maddux. Now, he definitely didn't show Maddux-like control, but if his effortless delivery can really bring 92-93 MPH heat? He's a lot more interesting. Here's my end of the season scouting effort on Seaton, based on his numbers.
There's also video of Jordan Lyles on Baseball Intellect, but I won't bore you any more with prospect talk. At first blush, it's some of the longest video I've seen on prospects and a good source for first-hand scouting reports.

Down on the Farm: Buster Posey to Start 2010 in AAA, Brandon Wood Finally Takes Over at 3B In LAA

raygu — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 14:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

5 months ago: Los Angeles Angels' Brandon Wood hits a two-run homer against the New York Yankees during the fifth inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Saturday, July 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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Be sure to check out John Sickel's Top 20 Baltimore Oriole prospects over at Minor League Ball. He is currently working on the Top 20 San Diego Padres as well.

I was listening to XM 175 running errands yesterday, and caught some of Jeff Joyce's interview with Baseball America's John Manuel. Manuel mentioned that Buster Posey was going to start the season in AAA. I had read that the other day, but did not know the reason. Manuel explained that Posey has trouble catching pitchers who throw heat. Apparently, while at Florida State, he mainly caught pitcher who threw sinkers and sliders, as that is what FSU preaches to their young pitchers. So, Posey needs more work on catching pitchers who throw alot of fastballs, as he has trouble actually catching the ball, and framing the ball for strike calls.

Manuel was asked who which prospects he thought could make an impact in the majors in 2010. One name he mentioned was the Ray outfielder Desmond Jennings. In AA and AAA in 2009, Jennings went 11-62-52-.318-.401-.487 with a sparkling 67-67 K/BB ratio. Jennings chipped in with 31 doubles and 10 triples in 2009. In his 4 year minor league career, Jennings has stolen 134 bases, been caught only 29 times, with a 175/148 K/BB ratio.

As a result of Chone Figgins signing with the Seattle Mariners, the Angels appear to be finally turning over 3B to prospect Brandon Wood. Wood has proven he can hit minor league pitching as evidenced by his HR totals over the last 5 years-43-25-23-31-22. Wood will finally get the chance to show he can hit major league pitching in 2010.

Down on the Farm: Part 2 of Interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 14:00:16 -0000

Here is the part 2 of the two part interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect. Foster and the guys over at Project Prospect recently posted their top 15 catching prospects, so head on over to Project Prospect and check out their top 15 rankings.

Fake Teams: Aside from the AFL, what prospects that you have seen this year made the biggest leap forward? Step back?

Adam Foster: James Darnell is a guy who I went well out of my way to see this year. His swing really impressed me at Minor League Spring Training. He's very athletic with a good chance of sticking at third base. And his power potential is outstanding.

Some of my colleagues who are really into college statistics pointed Darnell out as a guy who may have fallen further than he should have in the draft - he wasn't healthy his junior season. Then I bumped into Darnell's Cape Cod League coach in Phoenix one night and he said he wanted Darnell over Justin Smoak on his Cape team.

I'm not saying that Darnell is a lock to become a superstar. But he's one of the best prospects in baseball. And people who aren't giving him that kind of recognition probably haven't done their homework.

As far as guys who took a step back, unfortunately Tim Alderson was a different pitcher this year than last. He lost some movement on his fastball. And his pinpoint accuracy left him. There are guys who chose to give up some velocity to gain movement. Alderson may have gone the opposite direction in 2009, I'm not sure. But even though his curveball is already a plus pitch, he wasn't giving High-A or Double-A hitters much trouble last season. He definitely has elite control. I just don't think he's a big league pitcher without outstanding command.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I read in your Rising Stars game chat that you and your colleagues are not as high on the Phillies outfield prospect Domonic Brown. What are your reasons?

Adam Foster: Guys who are outstanding fast-twitch athletes can become overrated in a hurry. People like to assume that they're athletic enough to do things that other players can't. In Brown's case, there's some false information floating around that he's an elite defender. He has a very good arm and he's fast, but he doesn't get good reads or take good routes. Those skills can't really be learned. So it's highly unlikely that he'll be more than an average defensive right fielder.

Additionally, he's really not very coordinated - compared to his peers. My first reaction when I saw him bat was that he looked awkward. He gets in a crouch to try to shrink down his big strike zone (Brown is 6-foot-5). And while he has a lot of bat speed, is patient, and recognizes pitches well, he's not going to be an above-average contact hitter. There's not much he can do about that. He doesn't have very good bat control.

Keep in mind that Brown is an elite prospect. He's in the 99^th percentile for his class. I'm just dissecting the heck out of him here. If you compare him to the other guys who are at the head of the class, I don't think he stands out as one who's going to become a star. He's very good and a likely bet to become an average big leaguer. But there are a dozen or so hitters out there who I see as better prospects than him.

Fake Teams: What players who underwhelmed in 2009 do you expect to jump back into the limelight in 2010?

Adam Foster: Reese Havens is a good one to start with. He moved to second base in the Arizona Fall League and looked solid at the position. He's a polished, well-rounded hitter who can play up-the-middle defense. He was a first rounder. And had a successful junior season in college - I'd be more confident in him if he was better his sophomore year, though. His baseball resume puts him in elite company. I'll be surprised if he doesn't break out in 2010.

Don't sleep on Jon Niese and Kevin Mulvey. They are solid bets to turn into useful big league starters. You could also end up looking like a genius if you snatch up Kellen Kulbacki cheap now that a lot of people have forgotten about him. Nick Noonan was one of the youngest players in High-A and has a lot of potential. Ivan De Jesus may not be a fantasy stud, but if you play in a deep dynasty or sim league, don't forget about him - and I'm sure you haven't ;).

Fake Teams: What prospects do you feel who should be getting more press based on their talent/performance?

Adam Foster: Josh Bell is just starting to get the attention he deserves. I guess you lose some street cred when you get traded for a reliever. But the Dodgers are clearly working under the win-now model, so I wouldn't hold it against him. He can play third base and has a lot of power. If Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace can't stick at third - and they probably won't - then Bell starts looking like a pretty good pick for the best "true" third base prospect in the minors. I'll have to compare my video of him and Darnell this offseason, though.

Brandon Snyder is another guy who has the resume to turn into a solid big leaguer. But you don't hear much talk about him. I'm a big Drew Cumberland believer. Matt Sweeney is a breakout guy. Lorenzo Cain has fallen out of the spotlight but I still see a lot of potential in him. Che-Hsuan Lin gets lost in the Red Sox depth of athletic hitters. Jaff Decker gets overlooked largely due to some old scouting biases.

Fake Teams: Who are your top 5 hitting prospects going into 2010? Who are your top 5 pitching prospects going into 2010?

Adam Foster: At the end of the 2009 season, we ranked Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, and Buster Posey as the game's top five hitting prospects with Dustin Ackley, Desmond Jennings, Fernando Martinez and Mike Stanton on the bubble. Those guys will account for the bulk of - if not all - the spots among our top five hitting prospects entering 2010.

We didn't get to see many of baseball's top pitching prospects at the AFL. And I still want to get better reads on some guys. But Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz are clearly at the head of this class. Daniel Hudson and Jeremy Hellickson were two of the most impressive pitchers I saw in 2009 - Hudson for his FB and CH movement; Hellickson for his command. Then it's hard not to like Neftali Feliz' stuff. The five guys I've mentioned were our top five pitching prospects when we put together our October top 25 pitching prospect list. Most of them should also be top five on our 2010 list.

I want to thank Adam for taking the time for this interview.

Down on the Farm: Baseball America's 2009 Top 10 AFL Prospects

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

6 months ago: FILE - In this April 3, 2009, file photo, San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg throws during a game in San Diego. The Washington Nationals selected Strasburg with the No. 1 overall pick in the baseball draft on Tuesday, June 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi, File)

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Baseball America posted their Top 10 Arizona Fall League prospects yesterday and with a little luck I was able to find the list over at Mets Minor League Blog.

Here are their Top 10 AFL prospects for 2009:

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
2. Buster Posey, C, Giants
3. Dominic Brown, RF, Phillies
4. Dustin Ackley, OF, Mariners
5. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
6. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Mets
7. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds
9. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
10. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets

With the hype that Starlin Castro received I am surprised there are 8 other guys ahead of him on this list. Mets fans have to be happy about seeing two of their prospects listed in the top 10. Maybe their farm system is turning around. Was it due to Tony Bernazard challenging them to a fight?

This list would be different had the Braves and Marlins not pulled Jason Heyward and Michael Stanton after the first week of games due to minor injuries.

I wonder if Castro would have made the Top 10 had they played the entire AFL season?

San Francisco Giants Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 04:20:41 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

3 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey gets his first major league hit against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Los Angeles, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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San Francisco Giants Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players are available in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order now for February 2nd shipping!

1) Buster Posey, C, Grade A: No-brainer. All he needs is playing time.

2) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade A-: Almost went with B+, but strikeout rates aren't everything. More concerned about dropping velocity. May still go with B+ eventually.

3) Thomas Neal, OF, Grade B: Solid all-around hitter, saw him in Arizona Fall League and he convinced me bat is for real.

4) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Grade B: I'm hesitant to give a grade this high to any high school pitcher without a pro track record, but I really like Wheeler.

5) Roger Kieschnick, OF, Grade B-: Love the power and he's not just a one-dimensional slugger, but the high strikeout rate and low walk rate is concerning. How will he transition to Double-A?

6) Tommy Joseph, C, Grade B-: Have to see where he fits defensively but scouting reports about the bat are very positive.

7) Dan Runzler, LHP, Grade B-: Very impressive relief arm, if he throws enough strikes.

8) Waldis Joaquin, RHP, Grade B-: Another impressive relief arm, if he throws enough strikes.

9) Jason Stoffel, RHP, Grade B-: Another impressive relief arm, could be a bargain as a fourth rounder.

10) Francisco Peguero, OF, Grade B-: Difficult to grade, speed and high batting average are positives, but walk rate is way too low. Borderline C+.

11) Rafael Rodriguez, OF, Grade C+: Held his own in rookie ball though power isn't there yet. Very very young, loads of potential but have to see how it pans out. Difficult to grade, you can make a case for B- as well as a straight C.

12) Jose Casilla, RHP, Grade C+: Another lively relief arm.

12) Nick Noonan, 2B, Grade C+: Numbers haven't lived up to scouting reports but still young. Giants hype him but I'm not sure at all that he will live up to it.

13) Aaron King, LHP, Grade C+: Live-armed lefty needs better command.

14) Henry Sosa, RHP, Grade C+: Can he stay healthy? Maybe a switch to relief would help.

15) Darren Ford, OF, Grade C+: Not convinced he'll hit at higher levels. Borderline Grade C.

16) Clayton Tanner, LHP, Grade C+: For some reason I like him a lot. Another borderline Grade C guy, need to see if game will work against better hitters.

17) Ehire Adrianza, SS, Grade C: Scouts love him. Great glove. I'm not convinced he'll hit, but I could be convinced to give him a Grade C+ and move him up the list. Anyone want to convince me?

18) Conor Gillaspie, 3B, Grade C: He showed outstanding plate discipline but nothing else. I think he still has a chance to be a good hitter.

19) Brandon Crawford, SS, Grade C: Excellent glove. I do not believe in his bat. Baseball America ranks Adrianza and Crawford much higher than I do.

20) Edwin Concepcion, RHP, Grade C: Interesting power arm at the lower levels with strikeouts/grounders combination.

OTHERS (all Grade C): Brandon Belt, 1B; Brock Bond, 2B; Jorge Buchardo, RHP, Craig Clark, LHP; Chris Dominguez, 3B; Matt Downs, INF-OF: Steve Edlefsen, RHP: Matt Graham, RHP; Julio Izturis, 2B; Mike McBryde, OF; Kyle Nicholson, RHP; Dan Otero, RHP; Joe Paterson, LHP: Brett Pill, 1B; Ryan Rohlinger, 3B: Ari Ronick, LHP; Hector Sanchez, C; Ben Snyder, LHP; Eric Surkamp, LHP; Ydwin Villegas, SS; Craig Westcott, RHP.

The Giants have one can't-miss prospect in Buster Posey, but after that things thin out. Bumgarner is something of an enigma for well-known reasons, and I keep going back and forth between A- and B+ for him. Neal looks very solid to me, while Wheeler is very promising but unproven professionally. The B- guys all have some impressive positives but enough uncertainty to preclude a higher grade at this point: Kieschnick's strikeouts, command for the pitchers, position and lack of experience for Joseph, Peguero's low walk rate. Same thing for the C+ guys only more so.

Baseball America's list which came out today ranks Adrianza 8^th and Crawford 9^th. This reflects the fact that the organization loves them, something that BA weights more heavily in their rankings than I do in mine. I like their gloves but have serious doubts about their bats, especially Crawford's. I've seen him play and I think he looks like a weak hitter. I could be persuaded to boost Adrianza's grade but I just don't believe in Crawford's bat and he's staying a C.

Overall this system has pitching depth, with a mixture of power and finesse arms. They could use more hitting depth beyond Posey and Neal. Joseph provides hope in that department if he is as polished a high school hitter as reports indicate.

Giants interested in Yorvit Torrealba

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 02:43:00 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

5 months ago: Colorado Rockies catcher Yorvit Torrealba, back, chats with batting coach Don Baylor behind the cage as the Rockies warm up before facing the Arizona Diamondbacks in a baseball game in Denver on Friday, July 3, 2009. The Rockies reinstated Torreabla from the Major League restricted list on Wednesday, July 1. Torrealba left the team after his son and two family members were kidnapped in his native Venezuela. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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MLB.com is reporting that the Giants have interest in free agent catcher Yorvit Torrealba. The Giants are preparing for life without Bengie Molina, and hope they can bring in Torrealba on a one year deal to share the load with Buster Posey.

Torrealba hit .291 in 64 games this past season, but is a .255 hitter. The Mets and Brewers also have some interest in the catcher.

NL West in Review: Catchers

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Only two NL West catchers were above league average with the bat in 2009 (by wOBA). Neither played on the Pacific coast.

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Each of the past three years, the NL West has been home to an emerging and promising young catcher. In 2007, it was Russell Martin. In 2008 - it was Chris Iannetta's time to shine, and this season brought the surprising leap to prominence for Miguel Montero.

With Bengie Molina leaving in free agency, youth is served. Montero, Iannetta, Martin and Nick Hundley were all born the year before George Orwell's nightmare, and 22yo Buster Posey is waiting in the wings to take over soon. Of course, this article is meant to focus on 2009 though.

In past installments, the limitations of UZR have been illuminated, casting doubt on these numbers. So what could be worse than an inconsistent/inaccurate defensive metric? How about eliminating defense from consideration altogether. Fangraphs' WAR does just that for catchers, and given that I have been using their methodology, I was forced to as well. THT's Jeremy Greenhouse warns:

Do not place undue trust in WAR for catchers. How much of a catcher's value do you think is in his defense? I'll give you a hint: it's a lot. FanGraphs has unfortunately yet to give an effort to quantifying this vital aspect of the game, other than with the positional adjustment. In fact, catchers should possibly be considered a separate group of players with a separate replacement level and therefore be treated as different from all other position players.

Now, given that I have ruined the legitimacy of all ensuing data, let's look at the numbers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.266	22	79	.352	.437	.342	4.09
2. Colorado	4	.255	18	89	.343	.415	.329	3.28
3. Los Angeles	3	.259	8	69	.342	.338	.314	2.46
4. San Francisco	5	.257	21	89	.280	.409	.301	1.72
5. San Diego	4	.225	16	52	.293	.367	.299	1.56

The Diamondbacks rode the transformation of Montero from backup to cleanup hitter to the top of the division behind the dish. As noted above, defense is ignored in catcher WAR. With team replacement values and positional value essentially equivalent, offense is the only determining factor:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, click the words below.

As noted in the photo caption, only two of the 20 catchers (with 10+ PA) hit above the major league average wOBA.

Rank	Player	Team	PA	GS	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1	Miguel Montero	AZ	441	101	.295	16	55	.353	.483	.361	3.12
2	Russell Martin	LAD	568	133	.252	7	43	.349	.333	.318	2.42
3	Bengie Molina	SFG	505	120	.268	19	74	.287	.441	.313	1.98
4	Chris Iannetta	COL	345	87	.225	15	50	.340	.449	.333	1.85
5	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	242	61	.290	2	31	.351	.379	.328	1.22
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Buster Posey	SFG	16	4	.125	0	0	.125	.125	.226	-0.03
15	Luke Carlin	AZ	15	4	.200	0	1	.200	.200	.179	-0.07
16	A.J. Ellis	LAD	9	2	.111	0	1	.111	.111	.103	-0.09
17	Jose Lobaton	SDP	17	5	.176	0	0	.176	.176	.160	-0.10
18	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	110	28	.178	2	8	.200	.262	.201	-0.37

The franchise hasn't been shy about suggesting the Buster Posey might start the season at AAA. With Bengie Molina expected to leave in free agency, San Francisco will have to add a catcher in free agency if they want to keep Posey's seat warm. Troy Renck wrote last night to keep an eye on Yorvit Torrealba for that role. It makes a lot of sense from both sides. However, even starting Posey Opening Day might not be a bad idea. CHONE projects him to post a .325 wOBA next season, compared to Molina's .308 performance in 2009.

Poll

Considering all we know financially, who should be the Rockies' backup catcher to start the 2010 season?

Yorvit Torrealba

32 votes

Paul Phillips

107 votes

Michael McKenry

39 votes

Brian Schneider

10 votes

A different low level free agent

7 votes

A different non-roster invitee

4 votes

Chris Iannetta

25 votes

224 votes | Poll has closed

1.	Dee Gordon, ss
2.	Chris Withrow, rhp
3.	Aaron Miller, lhp
4.	Ethan Martin, rhp
5.	Josh Lindblom, rhp
6.	Scott Elbert, lhp
7.	Andrew Lambo, of
8.	Ivan DeJesus Jr., ss
9.	Trayvon Robinson, of
10.	Allen Webster, rhp