SB Nation - Bud Norris

Plan? Schman: What is the Astros front office thinking?

DyingQuail — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:02:20 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Just give us a sign, Ed.

I just got finished reading this piece by Brian McTaggart. I read it; I read it again, and then I thought, "Sonofabitch." Why? Because I can't discern a single line of thought from McTaggart's interview that would indicate there's any kind of plan for the Astros. I don't need a blueprint, but at least some sort of trajectory, and if not a trajectory, at least an indication that our front office is in fact in touch with reality.

Why the fuss? Here are the selections:

The first task for the Astros is re-signing their own free agents, a list that includes impact players in shortstop Miguel Tejada, closer Jose Valverde and reliever LaTroy Hawkins. Houston likely doesn't have enough payroll flexibility to retain all three, and Tejada's future with the club would be at third base instead of shortstop.

Ok. So Wade is allegedly gunning for two of the three. My guess would a pairing of Tejada, plus a reliever and that spending would pretty much close off payroll for the 2010 season. $7.5 million in 2010 for Tejada is what I'm guessing we'll offer and I imagine that Hawkins will look for at least a $5 million deal coming off the season he just had (if you don't prod the raw numbers, he looks stellar).

So our main objective for 2010 is to bring back a SS to play 3B at age 35 or 34 (honestly, I'll never get Miggy's age right). And then sign a closer-esque reliever. After that, the goal, ostensibly, will be to plug the roster with in house pieces for the league minimum and hope that of Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Wesley Wright at least two can perform at or around league average for the course of the season.

But wait, we apparently also have a void our outfield. This one was news to me. Of our current corps of minor leaguers, I think the only "stenghth" we might have is in the outfield. Am I wrong?

Nevertheless, Ed Wade had this to say about our "situation" in the outfield:

"From the standpoint of position players with both Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad being free agents, our extra-outfield situation at this point is an issue," Wade said. "I'm not saying we wouldn't bring both guys back, but both are free agents, and we have to recognize we have a void now."

Really? A point at issue? The services of two veteran bench warmers who happened to play outfield at some point in their career is really worth a likely $2-3 million in their two contracts? Yordanny Ramirez, Reggie Abercrombie, Brian Bogusevic (just to name our AAA OFers, but not to slight the Gaston's and Locke's of the world) couldn't slot in their spots for less than $1 million? Interesting.

So from that point, I can't tell if Wade is conceding that he can only spend enough to sign one of the Valverde/Hakwins/Tejada trio because if he signs two of the three he can't afford to round out the bench, or not. But in all honesty, that has me worried.

Next up, something that's be eating at me for awhile, but Wade's quote brings it to the surface:

"If we can mix and match with Geoff over there and provide more offense, that's something we have to pay attention to," Wade said.

I get that Blum is allegedly an über-utility IF. But if Wade is really gunning for Tejada, why did he re-sign Geoff Blum so early? A piece like Blum seems best signed in January or February when someone like Blum hears things like "league-minimum" and "major league job" and jumps at the opportunity to sign after sweating it out all offseason.

There's also discussion of Wade looking to trade for a SP, but who does he trade? For whom? And why?

And it's at the point in the article that I started over, re-read and realized that Wade is literally just slapping duct-tape on this team and hoping it all holds. But with what purpose? I don't know. If Drayton's taking a hard line on the payroll because he doesn't want to lose money this year, why not just hold everyone we have in place? Offer arbitration to our FAs, and then whoever rejects it, take the picks and fill the slots with in house players at league minimum? If everyone rejects arbitration, we have a payroll of $80 million on opening day and we get finally see what are farm system actually has in it, and that seems more entertaining than the Ed Wade duct-tape ball that's being rolled right now. Hell, just throw some money at Hawkins and have someone we trust to close baseball games and still save Drayton a sizable chunk of change to invest in the 2010 draft.

Wade doesn't seem to be trying to make the roster better, he seems like he's trying to plug leaks on a sinking ship—but will still end up taking on water. And I have myself back to, what is the Astros objective for 2010 and beyond? Does anybody see it?

None of this is to say that I don't think the Astros can compete as assembled, or attempted to be assembled, in 2010, but my concern is that is there are plans for 2011, 2012, and beyond? Or is it going to just be duct-tape and prayers for the foreseeable future?

Tuesday Astros Links N' More

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 19:00:14 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

That's no whiffle bat Bourn is swinging...

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Let's open with a rather long note from Buster Olney's column on Michael Bourn. Since it's protected by the ESPN Insider firewall and I don't know how many of you subscribe, I'll reprint the high points:

Before joining Aguilas in winter ball, in the Dominican Republic, he started to unravel the puzzle of his swing. Besides pulling ground balls to the right side of the infield, Bourn also was hitting the ball off the end of his bat a lot -- clues, he felt, that told him his swing was too quick, and that his bat wasn't in the hitting zone long enough. He liked to watch Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee take batting practice, and he admired how their level swings seem to be pulled through the plate for so long, giving them a greater chance for better contact. Bourn's swing, on the other hand, was just too quick, which is why he kept hitting harmless grounders to second base.

Late in the 2008 season, Astros coach Dave Clark gave Bourn a suggestion -- Bourn should try hitting with his weight shifted forward at the outset of his swing, rather than with his weight back, on his left hip. Ultimately, Clark said, Bourn would need to get back to hitting with his weight back -- but this change would allow Bourn to focus on how he used his hands in his swing path.

Imagine swinging a Wiffle ball bat with your hands only, and without shifting your weight from your back hip to your front hip; this is what Clark did in September of 2008. And he could feel, in his swing, a solution evolving. He began to hit the ball to the left side of the infield, or through the middle. The progress continued in winter ball, and in spring training, Berkman suggested to him that he should work off a tee daily, develop a routine in which he practiced his level swing path, using his hands and the shift of his weight in concert.

And in spring training, Bourn noticed the foul balls he was hitting were going into the stands along the third-base line. A good thing, he felt.

"What this told me was that I was doing better at letting the ball get deeper in the strike zone," Bourn said. "I was a little behind the ball, and all I needed to do was to be a little quicker."

No wonder Dave Clark was such a popular figure with the player...

Since the Astros' top prospect Jason Castro was sent home from the Arizona Fall League because of fatigue, this interview with Giants catcher Buster Posey is relevant, though not especially enlightening. Posey doesn't really say anything we couldn't have surmised ourselves but it is worth looking at Houston's future catcher to see how many innings he's racking up on those knees.

The following are rough estimates on the number of innings played for Castro in the past five seasons. You can see the huge spike in the season he got drafted. It's also worth noting that for the first few years there, those innings were spread out through the entire year, as Castro played in the Alaska Baseball League, the Area Code Games, the Cape Cod League and other events throughout his career that made playing baseball year-round a possibility.

2005 - ~500 (mostly infield)

2006 - 673 (mostly first base)

2007 - 536 (mostly first base)

2008 - 900 (first season full-time at catcher)

2009 - 1,100 (including spring training, minors, World Cup and AFL)

Castro is used to playing year-round, but tired out right around the time he hit the 1,000 inning mark. The Astros top two catchers last season combined to catch 1,175 innings. Maybe Castro just needs to get his legs underneath him. He's only caught for two seasons now, much like Posey and should be fresher than someone who caught all through high school and college. Still, if we're thinking of using Castro at some point next season, it's worth asking if he'll have anything in the tank when he is called up.

Farmstros is already on top of this one, but Zach Levine posted all the minor league coaching move s that trickled down from a new big league skipper being named. The only real eyebrow-raiser for me was Mark Bailey being named hitting coach after spending all those years in Houston as bullpen coach. He used to be a catcher, but isn't that a bit weird?
Fangraphs updates us on how awesome Michael Bourn was on the basepaths last season. Though the best baserunner in the league was only worth eight runs last season, it shows how versatile Bourn was and how his value really transcends his pedestrian OPS.
Here are a couple of posts from Chris Jaffe's new book on managers. Since we discussed the relative merits of different managers quite extensively leading up to Brad Mills' hiring, it's interesting to look at the factors that distinguish a good manager from a bad one. If I have some time this winter, I'm definitely reading up on this book to see how we can start better evaluating the skipper. It's also interesting to think about the 'hometown hero' concept in relation to Houston's managers. Of course, the only real example was Dierker, but with all the talk about Bagwell and/or Biggio being candiates for the job, looking at how other guys fared is pretty neat.
Here's a twitpic from Alyson Footer of Bud Norris. Footer has been on a tweeting rampage with her camera, taking some candid shots of Berkman and Hunter Pence at a MMP event for 20 homeless families transitioning to non-homelessness. A very good cause and a very neat anecdote that Footer shares on her blog about how Missus Puma wanted her kids involved with this.
Don't know what to get that baseball fan you know for Christmas? How about a super-cool DVD pack full of World Series games?
Good news for the baseball bloggers of the world...Yahoo has the highest number of media credentials at the Winter Olympics so far. It makes sense, no? Just because newspapers die out doesn't mean people will stop wanting news. They just have to figure out how to log onto the InterWeb now...
Finally, a little piece of non-baseball goodness...if anyone here hasn't watched The Wire yet, I highly recommend it.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The 2008 Rule IV Draft

davoag — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:00:28 -0000

We've broken down the roster here, here, here and here. We've broken down where the money was spent last season and what moves the Astros made in the 2008 offseason. What's left to do?

Farmstros and I teamed up to analyze the Astros 2008 Rule IV draft. With one full season of play in the minors under their belts, it seemed a good time to check in with Bobby Heck's first draft class and see how they were doing (that's Jordan Lyles to the right).

This would also be a good place to talk about the AFL Rising Stars game if anyone watched it. It's currently sitting on my DVR, and hopefully I'll get a chance to watch and try to break down Castro's play in it, before he was sent home to rest for the rest of the offseason.

The Top Ten

1st Round (No. 10 overall), Jason Castro, C. It seems that Castro is everything the Astros were expecting when they spent the No. 10 pick on him in June 2008. He continues to hit for average and the reports I read are that his defense and handling of pitchers is above average. The left-handed swinger split the 2009 season between Lancaster and Corpus Christi. He homered in the Futures Game in St. Louis. He was named by Baseball America as the third-rated prospect in the California League and the sixth-rated prospect in the Texas League. He has struggled at the plate this fall in Arizona. However, I wonder how much of that is from his overly long season. He left Corpus at the end of August to play for the United States in Europe for the baseball World Cup. After Europe, he reported to Arizona for the Fall League in less than 10 days, and was recently sent home from the AFL to rest. Castro has a chance to break camp next spring as the Astros catcher, but I expect he will start the year at Round Rock.

1st Round Supplemental (No. 38 overall), Jordan Lyles, RHP. With the promotion of Bud Norris to the big leagues, Lyles becomes the top prospect in the system. He struggled out of the gate for Lexington in 2009, but by the end of the season he was the Legends’ ace, and Baseball America rated him the sixth-best prospect in the South Atlantic League. Lyles, who was drafted out of high school, will only be 19 on opening day 2010, but he seems headed for AA Corpus Christi.

2nd Round, Jay Austin, OF. After struggling in his 2008 short-season, Austin showed flashes of brilliance for Low A Lexington in 2009. The left-handed hitter had 22 doubles and 23 stolen bases in 101 games for the Legends to go with a .267 average. He did miss two stretches during 2009 with injury. I assume he will be in the Lancaster outfield in 2010, and I am curious to see if he can stay healthy and how he hits and runs there.

3rd Round, Chase Davidson, 1B. The Astros couldn’t sign Davidson out of high school as he decided to go to the University of Georgia. He started 31 games and batted .231 for the Bulldogs. He should be draft eligible again in June 2011.

3rd Round Supplemental, Ross Seaton, RHP. After one full season, the 20-year old isn’t as highly regarded as his Lexington teammate Lyles. (He was left off of Baseball America’s top 20 South Atlantic League prospects list) However, he was the second or third best starter for Lexington all season. Baseball America mentions his need to use the lower half of his body more to improve as a starter. Where will Seaton be in 2010? That is a good question. I get the feeling Houston is reluctant to send him to Lancaster, which is tough on pitchers, but he may not be AA-ready. [David's note: It was really maddening how inconsistent Seaton was. In his last four starts, he posted Game Scores of 62, 5, 61 and 58. He also gave up 18 unearned runs, which suggests he may not handle adversity well yet. I think Seaton is still learning how to be a pitcher but don't know a good place to start him next season.]

4th Round, T.J. Steele, OF. Steele has been impressive when he has been healthy. However, he missed the end of the 2008 season and several segments of 2009 with hamstring issues. He batted .345 in 2009, but he only played 50 games for Lancaster. I assume he will be in California in 2010 trying to stay healthy.

5th Round, David Duncan, LHP. Duncan started out the season getting shelled and./or injured in Lancaster. After a brief rehab at Tri-City, he was more steady at Lexington in 11 appearances (10 starts). I can’t imagine him being sent back to Lancaster. My guess would be more Lexington in 2010.

6th Round, Jack Shuck, OF. Shuck was the most consistent outfielder in Lancaster in 2009. He played 133 games and as a rule, he was the lead-off batter for the JetHawks. He batted .315, scored 98 runs, had 30 doubles and 18 steals in 27 attempts. I expect he will be leading off for the Hooks in 2010. [David's note: Shuck turned into one of my favorite players last season simply because he does a few things very well. Shuck doesn't have much power but is a high-contact guy who doesn't strike out and steals bases at a good clip. I compared him to Juan Pierre last season and he didn't do anything to prove me wrong]

7th Round, Jon Gaston, OF: Gaston set the Lancaster franchise record for home runs in a season with 35 in 2009. With one of the highest park factors in the minor leagues, Lancaster is a hitter's paradise, which suggests Gaston's numbers (.278/.367/.598) could be the product of his environment. On the other hand, of all the players who have gone through that launching pad, Gaston had the best season power-wise, which has to mean something. It will be interesting to see how he handles Corpus Christi next season.

8th Round, Brad Dydalewicz, LHP: Dydalewicz may have been the most surprising member of the Big 3 that came out of this draft. The lefty isn't a hard thrower, but gets a ton of ground balls (33% of TBF). That also means he doesn't give up home runs, as he had just six allowed in his 22 starts. The flip side is he also doesn't miss many bats, striking out just 78 in 110 innings. The lefty also played through an oblique strain that forced him to miss a few starts in April, but put up a solid first full season.

9th Round, Luis Cruz, RHP: Cruz is a diminutive fireballer that scouts seem to love. He has good movement on his fastball, but needs to learn how to be a complete pitcher. In 78 1/3 professional innings, Cruz has struck out 6.9 batters per 9 innings but walked 3.3 per 9. The 19-year old repeated rookie ball again in 2009 with less success, but that was mainly due to a penchant for giving up home runs. Cruz still profiles as a very good pitchers and may end up at Lexington next season.

10th Round, Jarred Holloway, LHP: Holloway had a somewhat successful short-season run in 2008, but missed the entire 2009 season with an injury. No telling where Holloway will start next season, but it might be Lexington.

The Best of the Rest

14th Round, Chris Hicks, RHP: Hicks doesn't appear to be one of the 'best,' but there is something hidden in his terrible numbers from Lancaster. By neutralizing his stats, his ERA falls down from 6.12 to 5.37 and his FIP of 4.82 is even lower. Add to that his K/9 rate of 7.2 and you have a pitcher with potential. Lancaster is just such a tough place to pitch, it's a wonder anyone can survive. I could definitely see Hicks joining Lyles and Duncan in the Corpus rotation next season and surprising people with a breakout performance.

17th Round, Andrew Simunic, 2B: Simunic is what he is; not a great prospect, the 24-year old is a polished, collegiate hitter who adds depth to the system. Over 270 plate appearances between Lancaster and Lexington, the second-baseman hit .287/.398/.305. The big problem for Simunic moving forward is he has absolutely no power. None. Whatsoever. Still, in an organization lacking middle infield depth, he could be a fast riser, though I don't see him making an impact at the major league level.

19th Round, Ashton Mowdy, RHP: Another in the minor-league reliever trend, Mowdy pitched in 41 games between Lexington and Lancaster last season. The 23-year old got absolutely destroyed at High-A (2.11 WHIP, 9.30 ERA), but pitched very well at Lexington (8.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.79 WHIP). Which Mowdy will show up in 2010? It just depends on where he is put. I'd lean towards Lancaster being a problem with evaluating him long-term, but the Oklahoma native does show promise.

26th Round, Shane Wolf, RHP: It's hard to be disappointed at a 26th round pick who makes it to High A ball in his first full season. Wolf also struck out 101 in 121 1/3 innings, more than Hicks, with a lower ERA than his higher-drafted teammate. The other thing Wolf excelled at was not giving up walks. In 179 1/3 career minor league innings, Wolf has only given up 42 walks for a rate of 2.1 BB/9. The 22-year old also doesn't give up home runs, with just 12 in his minor league career. Wolf did get bounced from the JetHawks rotation mid-season, but was back in by the end of the year and started 17 games overall.

48th Round, Danny Meszaros, RHP: Meszaros is probably the most highly-touted 48th round pick in Astro history. To wit, he's the only 48th round pick that has ever played in the minors for the Astros. Meszaros made his way up to AA this season, pitching 61 2/3 innings for the Hooks with an ERA of 3.36. His K/9 rate in Corpus of 7.0 dropped his minor league career rate down to 10.1, but his walk rate has held steady at 2.5 in almost all his stops. Meszaros is an older prospect and will be entering his Age 24 season in 2010. Still, it's not out of the question to see him in the big league bullpen as soon as next season.

The Duds

11th Round, Jacob Priday, DH: The big slugger from Missouri retired last season and was placed on the Restricted list by Lexington. Priday totaled just 121 plate appearances in the minors after signing in 2008. The Astros were probably hoping for a little more from their 11th round pick (Michael Stutes, Brandon Douglas and Conroe's own Kyle Walker were all chosen after Priday in the 11th)

15th Round, Phil Disher, 1B: Disher had many people ogling his power numbers (13 HR, 36 XBH in 318 PA, Tri-City) after the 2008 season. The 24-year old was supposed to be a polished, collegiate bat to add some thump to the minor league system. Unfortunately, though, Disher suffered through a series of injuries in 2009 that held him to 128 plate appearances. The power also disappeared, as Disher managed just six extra-base hits at Lexington.

18th Round, David Flores, 3B: It's getting later in the draft ,where you don't expect every player to become a superstar. But Flores has been particularly bad, though he's been good with the glove. In283 plate appearances at offense-heavy Lancaster, Flores managed a line of .242/.288/.371. In fact, Flores was actually bumped from the lineup in favor of Lexington call-up Ebert Rosario and shortstop Gabriel Suarez.

The Sleeper

31st Round, Philip Rummel, RHP: This is another one of the Lancaster pitchers you have to look hard at to see the hidden potential. Rummel had an ERA of 6.58 in six starts with the JetHawks and wasn't really that good. He was serviceable, though, and if he can learn from that experience, he could make an interesting bullpen arm someday.

Overall Grade: This turned out to be a pretty good draft by normal standards, as at least three of the picks seem destined for the major leagues, with a handful of other guys showing solid potential. Of course, with the Astros recent track record in the draft, this was a slam-dunk, home run, hole-in-one winner (all sorts of mixed metaphors there...sorry).

Not as many misses in the first 10 rounds in this draft, either. Even the misfire of not being able to sign Davidson worked out, as the Astros received a supplemental pick in the third round of the 2009 draft. Austin still needs work, and hasn't displayed the power potential that the Astros projected for him in the second round, but he's still very, very young. The pitching that Houston got out of this draft alone will make a difference, as Lyles, Seaton and Dydalewicz all have potential to sail through the minor leagues.

Final note from Farmstros: The Astros drew the short straw last off-season when Boston purchased the Salem minor league team and Houston ended up with a High A team in Lancaster, California. The park in Lancaster is regarded as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. The 2008 draft class will be feeling the Lancaster effect in full. For example, it seems that the strategy in developing the pitchers in the 2008 draft is to have them avoid Lancaster entirely. Daniel Meszaros jumped straight to Corpus Christi in 2009. Indications are that Jordan Lyles will do the same in 2010. There is some question as to whether Seaton is ready for AA, but I will be surprised if he ends up in Lancaster. Actually, I agree with the idea David ran past me that Seaton may start at Lexington before jumping to Corpus Christi in late May.

On the hitting side, it will be interesting to see how Gaston and Shuck do in Whataburger Field. They put up stellar numbers (as did Koby Clemens) in Clear Channel Field. How they will do against stronger pitching in a less hitter-friendly park is yet to be seen.

I imagine that the Astros' brass is working to get back to the Carolina League in 201l.

The Future Is Now: Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Showcase Preview, Saturday 11/7, 7:15 CT

Al — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:00:30 -0000

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The 2009 baseball season has just ended, and in a way, you could say that tonight, the 2010 season begins.

While we are not going to see the most-hyped prospect, Stephen Strasburg -- he was scratched due to a strained neck muscle -- or Cubs prospect Josh Vitters, also scratched with a minor injury, there will be plenty of players in tonight's game who you'll see in the major leagues next season.

Among them are Giants prospect catcher Buster Posey, who played in two games against the Cubs last September; Hank Conger, who may be the Angels' next catcher; and, of course, the Cubs' own Starlin Castro, who we have been talking about here all throughout the AFL season. Castro enters tonight's game leading the AFL in batting average (.424). Castro probably isn't quite ready for the major leagues -- he won't turn 20 until March and has played only 31 games above A ball -- but he'll likely get into some spring training games next March and could get a September callup in 2010.

Andrew Cashner, also in the AFL, won't play tonight either, so the only other Cubs prospect who might participate will be Blake Parker, who had 22 saves for Iowa last year and who might have a shot at the major league bullpen in 2010.

There were a number of players from the 2008 AFL who made significant impacts on the 2009 major league season, including Tommy Hanson, Gordon Beckham, Matt Wieters, Bud Norris and Phil Hughes. I figure enough of you are interested in, and will be watching, this game, that it deserved its own game thread.

Broadcast and other detailed information after the jump.

MLB.com article about tonight's game, which will begin at 7:15 CST.

MLB Network will carry a live broadcast of the Rising Stars Game with Diamondbacks announcer Daron Sutton and MLB Network's Tony Clark in the broadcast booth. A live video feed will also be available on MLB.com.

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

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In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Starters

davoag — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 21:49:44 -0000

More photos » by Dino Vournas - AP

Roy Oswalt, in a rare good mood

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To lead off the starters section, I wanted to focus a little on Roy Oswalt. The soon-to-be 32-year old had his worst season as a professional, but was that a sign of aging and decline, or just a bump in the road?

His BABiP shows he wasn't unlucky in 2009 and was right in line with his career average. He also didn't throw more pitchers per plate appearance than he has in his career, while getting the most swinging strikes he's had since 2004. He did have a slight dip in his percentage of strikeouts that were looking, but since his swing and miss percentage didn't change, I think that was more statistical noise than anything.

You can't even blame injuries for hampering his stuff, because his fastball velocity was the same as it has been for the past few years. In fact, it actually ticked up a notch, but that's probably because of the only significant difference in his performance this season, a 5% drop in the number of fastballs he threw. Oswalt supplemented with more sliders and changeups. So, speed was not an issue...was something wrong with his movement? I wish I were smart enough to put together those cool scatter charts using the PitchF/X data, but I'm not there yet. I'd really like to see if he lost movement or late life on his fastball to determine if that's what the injuries robbed him of.

Other than possibly that, it appears his main problem may have been his attitude. Clashing so publicly and so often with Cecil Cooper, Roy just didn't give off the vibes of a guy playing his best. I'm sure he was playing his hardest, since he seems to have only one speed in that regard. But I wonder if he was mentally there this season. It's the one thing we can't really quantify, attitude.

Hear that, Brad Mills? Keep The Wizard happy next season and he'll bounce back.

Onto the rest of the starting rotation after the jump...

Roy Oswalt, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-6, 181 1/3 IP, 4.12 ERA, 30 GS, 19 HR, 138 strikeouts, 42 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 101 ERA+

FIP: 3.76

Average Game Score: 53

BABiP:.305

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created: 70

Notes: Since we've already talked about Roy-Boy's career trajectory, let's focus in on his 2009 season. Is this just the pitcher Roy is now? He struggled with getting any kind of decision all season, finishing with 16 non-decisions. His BABiP was right in line with normal luck, and he still got plenty of ground balls. The concerning part is his strikeout total, but as I said, that's been pretty steady for the past four seasons. His FIP shows he should have had a better ERA, but it would still have been his highest in his career. Roy was one of the main players disappointed in Cooper. Hopefully, he'll be motivated in 2010, because with Roy feeling right and Wandy pitching well, we will have a nice front end to the rotation. About that back end, though...

Wandy Rodriguez, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 14-12, 205 2/3 IP, 3.02 ERA, 33 GS, 21 HR, 193 strikeouts, 63 walks, 1.24 WHIP, 138 ERA+

FIP: 3.54

Average Game Score: 57

BABiP:.306

GB/FB: 1.21

Pitching Runs Created:100

Notes: Wandy was the best pitcher on the Astros staff last season. To put it in perspective, the difference between his and Roy's PRC was Mike Hampton. Maybe overly simple, but pretty amazing, no? Wandy's BABiP showed he wasn't just lucky to pitch this well and his strikeout total is very impressive, especially for a lefty. You'd like to see a few fewer walks, but that's just quibbling. The other interesting thing is his game scores. At 57, it was the highest of any of the starters and showed just how good he was game-to-game. His home/away splits were still very pronounced, though his strikeout rate was about the same. Two full runs of ERA though? For Wandy to take that next step to be an ace, he needs to perform better in road games.

Brian Moehler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 8-12, 154 2/3 IP, 5.47 ERA, 29 GS, 21 HR, 91 strikeouts, 51 walks, 1.53 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 4.75

Average Game Score: 44

BABiP:.325

GB/FB: 1.25

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Moehler started the third-most games on the team last season. The trouble was, he did not perform like a third starter. Though his FIP was lower than his ERA and his BABiP meant he was a little unlucky, Moehler was more bad than good. His strikeouts and walks were both not where they should be. Though he had a good G/F ratio, his average game score shows he was a below league average starter in most of his outings. Much was made about a few of his starts at the beginning and end of the season blowing his ERA up too high. If you added 50 points to his total game score, he still would be well belew the the baseline. As a back-end starter? Moehler probably is useful, but will be recovering from a knee injury he had surgery on. Still, for 3 million? He's not a bad option.

Mike Hampton, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 7-10, 112 IP, 5.30 ERA, 21 GS, 13 HR, 74 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.55 WHIP, 78 ERA+

FIP: 4.57

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.322

GB/FB: 1.78

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: Hampy did just what we thought he'd do, getting a ton of ground balls and not really overpowering anyone. Oh, and getting hurt. He did that too. It's a little surprising Hampton gave up as many home runs as he did, but it did appear this experiment failed.

Felipe Paulino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-11, 97 2/3 IP, 6.27 ERA, 17 GS, 20 HR, 93 strikeouts, 37 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 66 ERA+

FIP: 5.11

Average Game Score: 45

BABiP:.368

GB/FB: 1.08

Pitching Runs Created: 24

Notes: Obviously, anytime a hot, young prospect makes his debut and promptly posts a 6+ ERA, it's hard to be very excited. I still think his performance was somewhat affected by recovering from his 2008 injury, even if only slightly. His strikeouts numbers were great, though he gave up too many hits to win consistently. Paulino is too talented not to win more than three games next season, but it may take him a while to adjust. The Astros would pay more on the open market for a pitcher without nearly the upside of Paulino.

Russ Ortiz, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-6, 85 2/3 IP, 5.57 ERA, 13 GS, 8 HR, 65 strikeouts, 48 walks, 1.67 WHIP, 75 ERA+

FIP: 4.61

Average Game Score: 42

BABiP:.330

GB/FB: 1.62

Pitching Runs Created: 23

Notes: Ouch. The positives? Ortiz only gave up eight home runs and had a nice G/F ratio of 1.62. That's about it, though, as his nice start gave way to a rough time in the rotation. Ortiz wasn't as bad as his ERA indicated, but neither was he very good. He was hittable and probably was best as a swingman in the bullpen. He'll have to be that for some other team though, as I don't see the Astros bringing him back.

Bud Norris, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-3, 55 2/3 IP, 4.53 ERA, 10 GS, 54 strikeouts, 25 walks, 1.50 WHIP, 92 ERA+

FIP: 4.77

Average Game Score: 49

BABiP:.327

GB/FB: 0.87

Pitching Runs Created: 20

Notes: Norris had the most successful debut of any Astros rookie in 2009. He had some rough patches, obviously, but his average game score was still just a shade under average. He was a bit unlucky with his BABiP and gave up too many fly balls, but the strikeouts were there and the walks were minimized. I don't know whether he can get his control working well enough to be a permanent fixture in the rotation, but with his arm, he will have a place on the big league team for a while.

Yorman Bazardo, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 32 IP, 7.88 ERA, 6 GS, 17 strikeouts, 22 walks, 1.84 WHIP, 53 ERA+

FIP: 5.00

Average Game Score: 34

BABiP:.323

GB/FB: 1.52

Pitching Runs Created:5

Notes: The Astros won a bidding war to sign Bazardo to a minor league deal in spring training. He joined with Bud Norris and, later, Polin Trinidad to form a potent rotation at Round Rock. Unfortunately, Bazardo may be the proverbial Quadruple-A guy. His strikeout rate has never been very good (5.3 K/9 in minor-league career), though he supplements that by not allowing too many walks. Bazardo does get a fair number of ground balls and his BABiP showed he was slightly unlucky in 2009. His ERA, though, doesn't really support the claim that his failure was all because of Tejada and Matsui. Bazardo should probably be given another shot, but he's a fringe fifth starter at most.

Wilton Lopez, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-2, 19 1/3 IP, 8.38 ERA, 2 GS, 9 strikeouts, 8 walks, 2.07 WHIP, 50 ERA+

FIP: 6.25

Average Game Score: 35

BABiP:.381

GB/FB: 2.32

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes: Lopez pitched eight games out of the bullpen, but did start two games, so he ended up in this list. A pickup from the Padres, Lopez pitched relatively well for Corpus Christi before getting a late-season callup. Lopez had a good ground ball rate for his limited sample size and his FIP was lower than his ERA (though neither were very good). He profiles as a guy who could hang around Triple-A and help the Astros out in a pinch, but I wouldn't count on him contributing much in 2009.

Brandon Backe, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 13 IP, 10.38 ERA, 1 GS, 10 strikeouts, 6 walks, 2.08 WHIP, 40 ERA+

FIP: 7.94

Average Game Score: 41

BABiP:.375

GB/FB: 0.77

Pitching Runs Created: 2

Notes:You'll find no bigger fan of the Galveston native than me. Jeff Kent's home run to beat the Cards in 2004 wouldn't have been possible without Backe throwing a whale of a game. Unfortunately, that's all we got from him. Tantalizing glimpses at potential that never really panned out in the majors. Backe ran into a wall of injuries and ineffectiveness in 2009, refused a demotion to Triple-A and was released.

Managing the Houston Astros: Brad Mills' and his ability to define himself

HighLeveragePerformer — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:15:14 -0000

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Approach the signing of our new manager from that perspective and you can't help but be optimistic about the winter and the regular season ahead. So Manny Acta turned us down, because our owner wouldn't throw an extra year on a contract. Can anyone honestly say that they didn't think Drayton McLane would mess up the negotiations process? How that man is a success in the business world is a mystery to me. Bottom line, TCB's main man got away and there's a new man to denigrate/laud depending upon the outcome of a particular game. It's the nature of the beast, and Brad Mills is going to learn that from the get go.

After thinking more and more about what to write I sort of encountered a mental brick wall. DQ and David have ably analyzed Mr. Mills' career to this point, and I don't think I could have done a better job. At this point let's just be thankful that the process is over, Mr. Mills is in tow, and the Astros coaching staff is about to come together.

The bench coach is to baseball as the asst. head coach/coordinator is to football. When an NFL team hires an offensive/defensive coordinator to be a head coach, at least a fan knows what his track record is. How does he handle a particular defense? What are his tendencies? Game management, interaction with his players and preparedness would all be fairly evident from his previous job held. In baseball, we don't have that luxury. Terry Francona, as much as we maybe don't want to hear this, is not Brad Mills. The man Drayton hired as our manager is going to develop his identity as an Astro. Michael Bourn, Lance Berkman, Sammy Gervacio and Bud Norris are going to help define Mills' status as a major league manager. Cecil Cooper wasn't able to do enough with what he was given. Hopefully Brad Mills can.

The Astros' roster is not the Red Sox' roster (in case you hadn't noticed). Kevin Youkilis is not walking through that door, but neither are the higher than high expectations that accompany the Sox year in and year out. Nope, the buzz surrounding Mills' maiden club is low and probably will stay that way until Opening Day. Unless Drayton's stock portfolio improves and a free pitcher lands on his door step, Mr. Mills is going to have a roster that lacks talent and is in need of a major dose of motivation. Some players are going to improve upon their 2009 seasons. Others will go the opposite direction. How Mills deals with all of them will determine whether or not he will be viewed as an improvement upon his predecessors.

Houston Astros manager, Brad Mills. Looks good to me. Now it's time for our new head man to define himself and his team, so that it's the Astros that look good.

One lesson Astros owner Drayton McLane MUST learn this offseason

DyingQuail — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 16:13:58 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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For the last few days I've been mulling over what would be my in my annual condemnation of something that Drayton McLane does or doesn't do that bugs me as a fan. Last year, I'll admit, I was little on the absurd side. This year my goal will be to focus on the practical instead of the fantastical.

Since Cecil Cooper's firing, and even before that, Drayton McLane stated publicly that he didn't understand why the Astros weren't destroying opponents, because, after all, they had one of the leagues highest payrolls. I'm not sure how much of it was rhetoric, or if any of it was even self-delusion, but those kind of statements frighten me to no end. So this offseason, instead of hoping for Drayton McLane to graciously open up some of his near $1.2 billion in net worth on the free agent market, I'll aim a lot lower.

Drayton McLane seems to be missing a very crucial piece of the puzzle: How much money is spent or how good the team has been in years past, is not actually what determines the on field product. What determines the on field product is the quality of assets that are currently being invested in. It's probably not that far off from the performance of mutual fund. (For a refresher on just how the Astros performed, relative to their salaries, head over to the freely available breakdown at BtB).

It's no secret, the Astros are not a well constructed team. I just linked above to a number of pretty charts that speak this fact, and just about everyone here, at one time or another, has probably cited and elaborated upon several other means of illustrating this point.

However, the actual problem that this organization has been plagued with for the last few years seems to be one that will continue to plague it going forward: Drayton McLane's willingness to bury his head in the sand. When Cooper was fired, Drayton made it clear that it would be just the first of many overhauls to this organization. Yet, it seems like Cooper's firing will be just what Tim Purpura and Phil Garner's firings were in 2007: smoke and mirrors to entice fans into believing that in overhauling the management, and not the team on the field, that things will get better—over night. There seems to be no substance to these moves. They just seem like the impulsive move to cast blame on something other than the problem itself: that the Astros are inefficient and that much is needed to be done to make the efficient. This team doesn't didn't need to have its manager fired, what this team needed was a fresh, intelligent, and above all, realistic approach.

So my hope for this offseason, is that Drayton will have will have a "the buck stops here" moment this offseason (soon would be nice). Without that kind of epiphany, there will be no progress with this ball club in the short term (two-three years). Bobby Heck's draftees can't progress overnight, and we can only expect so much out of Bud Norris, Felipe Paulino, and Jason Castro in 2010. What we can, and should expect, from our owner, who is a business savvy man, is for him to understand that there isn't an easy fix with this team; that he can't keep measuring his expectations against the ledger; and that the fate of his franchise is in no one else's hands but his. Because until Drayton learns that it's not about spending more or spending less, he won't focus on spending smartly.

Now, is this so unreasonable of me to wish for?

This is way the Astros season ends: Not with a bang, but a whimper

DyingQuail — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 12:58:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

My feelings exactly, Aaron.

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I've done pretty much anything but think about the Astros today. There were too many mixed emotions to sort through; too many other tantalizing distractions to latch onto. I've watched a dismal Fantasy Football day crush my spirits, the Texans look weak in the second half against the Oakland Raiders, talked HLP down from the ledge as he fretted about his ability to clinch our rotisserie keeper-league (he did, Congrats buddy, you earned it).

I didn't even watch the Astros game. I couldn't.

I saw the standard tweets about it on my desktop client (Tweetie) and that was enough depression for me. The most critical thinking I could bring myself to do about the Astros was a few expletive deleted texts and about five minutes worth of phone conversation between HLP and myself. I don't know why it is that I feel this way, or I have felt this way for the last few weeks, but I think the catharsis of knowing that it's over has finally allowed me to snap out of my funk.

I can still remember when the glimmer of hope I had for this season was born. BtB's Sky Kalkman emailed me the spreadsheet for his Community Projection Project and I rushed to input all the projections. Without any fan embellishment, we were something like an 80 win team. It was late December and I was shocked. Flabbergasted. Almost afraid to actually publish the result publically. I probably wrote about seven drafts of an email I never sent Sky explaining—politely—that I thought his spreadsheet was broken.

We spent the next few weeks tweaking and refining the inputs and suddenly we were an 82 win team. Then in late March Ivan Rodriguez and Jeff Keppinger landed in Houston and we quickly became an 83 win team. There was probably inflation, but a .500 season seemed realistic, and there were all the variables in place to allow for some kind of meaningful and exciting season to get underway.

April and May saw the NL Central become a smorgasbord of stories that had thrown the conventional off-season predications of how the Central would play out, out. Yet the Astros struggled for most of it and seemed destined to be mired in irrelevancy, even as opportunity knocked. I managed to avoid excess worry and pessimism during this stretch by being wrapped up in graduating from college and then not living like a member of the real world for the next month (that month will easily go down as the most enjoyable month of my life). Perhaps that's what insulated my glimmer of hope and kept me set up for the inexorable Astros-depression that has plagued me as of late (does semi-ignorance count as denial?)

June arrived and the Astros were quietly good. The responsibility of covering the team on a daily basis allowed for me to be slow to notice the fact that the Astros were stringing together victories and closing ground in the Central. So it was a very plesant surprise when I finally allowed myself to consider the possibility of the Astros becoming...contenders(?!).

By the time the All-Star break was upon us, I don't think that there were many of us who weren't starting to harbor something akin to excitement. When we opened the second half by splitting the series with the Dodgers, I'd say most of us were starting to place ourselves in the camp of believers. I know I was.

Sure, there was a mountain of statistical evidence based on macro-level measures that could demonstrate how the Astros couldn't possibly succeed, but we saw a different picture. We saw a team that had been felled by Jose Valverde's monstrously wicked calf strain, Roy Oswalt's post-WBC inconsistency, and Lance Berkman's weird odd-year-early-season-under-perfomance. We were buoyed along by the fact that Wandy, in spite of his two weeks of HR/FB regression, was pitching consistently and finally living up to all of our hopes. There was Bud Norris tilling the farm in the PCL with a low 2.00 ERA and thus the hope that our rotation could only get better—not worse.

This all led to what I'll consider to be the peak of the Astros 2009 Season: July 20th-22nd. The NL Central leading Cardinals were going to be at MMP and the Astros had quite the opportunity on their hands. Prior to the Astros three game sweep of the Cards, I wrote the following:

Unlike previous years when the Astros and their fans had to hope and pray throughout the month of September that other teams would drop the ball while the Astros took care of other opponents, the Astros will be firmly in the drivers seat this time around from July 20th on...

...I consider this series to be the keynote address to how the Astros will handle the opportunity they're presented. They're only real opponent is themselves. This is a division, and even an Wild Card race, that has proven to be anything but decided ninety plus games into the season. So the Astros, flawed as they are, have legs to stand on in the search for October baseball, but we've all yet to figure out is how sturdy those legs ar e.

As we all know, the legs weren't that sturdy. Our offense collapsed into a black hole of paltry OBP (.305) and our farm hands and scrap heap veterans were anything but consistent as the season pressed forward on the mound for us. Even Roy Oswalt couldn't hold up.

But I don't want to get to that part yet.

There was a week long period after that where it genuinely felt like the Astros were going to do it. They were going to shock all of us and make a legitimate run at the playoffs. Actually take their fate in their own hands and dispatch their NL Central rivals. Maybe it was a fan's bias, but I did. Hell, I even put my neck on the chopping block and tried to show up SBN's own RJ Anderson when he wrote about how screwed the Astros actually were. I still don't think his argument was overwhelming, completely thought out, or entirely objective, but, in the end, he was right and I was wrong if you obscure the issue somewhat.

I think this is known as the first stage of grief: denial. What I was really saying and hoping was: "The Astros are fine, there's a way these obvious defects can be overcome. I can't say exactly how, I just believe they can."

Did I partake in too much of the Kool-Aid? Probably. But I really don't see how I couldn't. It felt like the stars were aligning. It felt like my sports luck was going to turn around. It felt like the baseball gods were going to pay us back for Hurricane Ike, the Selig/McLane/Cubs/Milwaukee fiasco, Joe Creede's ridiculously dumb defensive luck circa October 2005—everything.

It happened, though. Not a bang, but a whimper. The Astros dropped a series to the Mets at home. Then dropped series against Chicago on the road were swept by a Matt Holliday powered Cardinals. At the time it felt disconcerting, but certainly nothing to lose the faith over. After all it, was still just early August. It was impossible for me to fathom that it would be the start of a 25-42 run for the Astros. Reading that number right now it still seems impossible.

The team just started to slip way in bits and pieces. Chris Sampson went down, exposing the limits of the set-up men. Alberto Arais faltered and would go down with injury and later go under the knife. Bud Norris, whose was dazzling in his debut in St. Louis, started to get shelled. Yorman Bazardo got a call up to fill in for the now comical merry-go-round of Feliepe Paulino, Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler, and the released Ortiz, but struggled as well. Every game I oscillated between the anger and bargaining phases of grief. It was either: "What the hell is (object of my ire) doing/thinking, this is absurd. I can't believe they're finding new and impressive ways to blow this" or "Please baseball gods, please, just let them pull it together. It's not to late for them salvage something."

By the time September was underway, I was in full blown depression, the fourth stage. I didn't want to write about this team, I didn't want to think about this team, I didn't want to watch this team. Every loss was too painful; every glimmer of hope from Norris or Paulino tainted by my own jadedness. As I mulled over our options for 2010, the prospect of trying to make this team a contender on the budget Drayton McLane will provide did nothing to pull me out of my funk.

In the depression stage of grief, apparently one disconnects oneself by being silent. By not allowing their thoughts to be challenged or corrected by someone who could bring hope. Even though I wasn't writing, I was still reading. Most of you have continued to find the silver lining. Me, I couldn't stop adhering to Jerry Garcia's adage that every silver lining has a touch of gray.

Sure, Bud Norris has flashed brillance, but I've been stuck on knowing that he'll turn up injured before May rolls around next year. Paulino? He'll probably be on the Wandy Rodriguez path to greatness and take until 2013 to finally arrive. Wesley Wright's conversion to starter? Could Ed Wade be any more desperate for his owner to throw him a lifeline in the form a $10 million to go grab a worth while pitcher?

I could go on, but I think you get the point. That's pretty much how I've been thinking and feeling about the Astros for the last month. It's been awful.

Sometime around 8:30PM though, I finally reached the final stage, acceptance. Was this season a disappointment? Yes. Even so, it still provided a six to eight week stretch where people believed. Where people cared. Even though there's no one thing I can find to blame the Astros soul-crushing, for me, atrophy into the team that limped their way to a 25-42 final stretch, it's ok. I'm not sure there is. This once meteorically hot team just whimpered its way through the majority of the second half to a dismal 5th place finish in the NL Central. From one game behind on July 22nd, to seventeen games back on October 4th. It's probably fitting that they were shut out.

There's always next year.

It's still too soon for me to cling to that adage with the kind of hope I did last December, but at least that's what we have to focus on now.

Saturday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 12:15:51 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Come back healthy, Bud.

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Don't worry, there's not one story linked below that actually has anything today with the remainder of this painful, painful season:

The biggest news is that the Astros have finally wised up to what we all knew months ago: Bud Norris needed to be shut down early. I'm not going to lie, I'm not inspired by the decision as it didn't come until yesterday. I'm especially unenthused when I read that a 24 year old who has extended his innings well beyond any reasonable limit is reported on as follows by Ed Wade:

"He was a little more sore after his last couple of starts and took a little longer to loosen up after his last couple of starts..."

The Astros broke ground on their new Urban Youth Academy. Probably a smart baseball move, but, moreover, a great move in general.
The Astros inked an eighteen year old über utility infielder (2B, SS, 3B) from South Korea. That's two Pacific Rim signings in a year.
Ed Wade has hired a manager or two in his time, and he'll be drawing on his successes and failures. JJO names Pedrique as his most likely candidate...kind of.
Zach Levine echoes my sentiments of just truly not caring how this rest of the season plays out. He, of course, justifies his reasoning by discussing the increasing lack of parity.
BtB wants to know who our go to beat writer(s) is (are) and why we go to them...which leads us to today's poll.

Poll

Who is your favorite beat writer?

Justice

10 votes

JJO

2 votes

Levine

13 votes

Footer

25 votes

McTaggart

5 votes

Someone I've omitted

1 votes

56 votes | Poll has closed