SB Nation - Stephen Drew

2010 in Arizona: Short-stop

Jim McLennan — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 18:12:46 -0000

Our last preview before Christmas swings round from the right-side of the infield to the left, and things there become a good deal more stable for the Diamondbacks. Our starters at short-stop and third-base for 2010 currently appear to be locked in as the same players who were there on an everyday basis in the past couple of seasons. At short-stop, it seems that it's going to be Stephen Drew who will be the main incumbent once again. He's been one of the most regular players here of late - since the start of 2007, his 437 appearances for the Diamondbacks trails only Chris Young (442).

USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggested that the team would plan to listen to offers for SS Stephen Drew this winter," with the Red Sox expected to make contact. However, Nick Piecoro shot that down, reporting team officials as saying that this idea hasn’t been discussed and seems very unlikely to happen. I also note Nightengale recently said of Milton Bradley, "all indications are that he'll be going to Tampa Bay." How did that work out, Bob? Anyway, after the jump, we'll look at Drew's 2009 performance, and what we might expect next year.

2009 Performance
1. Stephen Drew: 128 starts, .261/.320/.428
2. Augie Ojeda: 27 starts, .246/.340/.345

Stephen Drew remains an enigmatic figure for the Diamondbacks. He was a first-round pick in 2004, and as late as three days before the draft, was reported as being San Diego's choice with the opening selection. His slide was, like Jered Weaver, due to signability concerns as a Scott Boras client: Weaver ended up going #12, while Drew dropped for Arizona to select him at #15 [the Padres ended up taking - and I'll pause here to hold my aching sides - Matt Bush]. But his numbers in the majors have left Arizona fans nursing a vague sense of disappointment, with only flashes of the expected brilliance [mind you, look at that draft and you'll not see many gems we missed out on in the first round]

While he had a down year in 2009 (an OPS+ of 89 was below his career average of 93), his production still remains better than average for a National League shortstop. Still, we'd been hoping for him to sustain closer to his breakout performance in the second-half of 2008, when he hit .326/.372/.556. That proved to be a complete mirage after Drew really struggled to get going this season. He missed three weeks after a niggling strained hamstring finally drove him to the DL, and the year's nadir saw Stephen batting a mere .173 on May 22. However, he recovered, hitting .275 the rest of the way, to achieve respectability, if perhaps remaining short of our dreams.

An area which did seem to improve was his defense. Drew's UZR/150 over the preceding two years as a full-time player had not exactly been a thing of wonder, with values of -11.3 and -14.3. By that metric, in 2008, he was the worst shortstop in the majors. However, 2009 saw a major improvement, with a UZR/150 of +3.9 - ok, while we're not talking unjustly robbed of a Gold Glove, it appeared to demonstrate some degree of competence. Maybe hanging out with Augie Ojeda has rubbed off on Drew? The Littlest Ballplayer was the main backup, and delivered the same kind of performance as he did at second-base: what he lacked with the bat, he more than made up for with the glove.

Top Remaining Free Agents
Name	Age	2009 Sal.	2009 OPS+
Miguel Tejada	35	$14.8m	109
Orlando Cabrera	35	$4m	86
Jerry Hairston Jr.	33	$2m	86
Nick Green	31	$550k	71
Khalil Greene	30	$6.5m	63
Chance of AZ free-agent activity: low.

2010 Depth-chart and Projections

Stephen Drew - .257/.316/.408
Augie Ojeda - .250/.332/.336
Tony Abreu - .285/.330/.416

As noted in the opening paragraph there had been rumblings of Drew getting traded, but the blockbuster deal with Detroit and the Yankees appears to have filled the hole in our rotation. Shiftng Stephen at this point would likely be creating a hole bigger than it filled - Derrick Hall said Drew "would be too tough to replace if we ever moved him" - so I currently expect him to be our short-stop on Opening Day next year. One question is, will he hit lead-off? In 42 starts there last year, he hit .301. As a caveat, hard to tell whether he got better because he was at the top of the order, or vice-versa. However, with that said, here are Drew's career numbers for every spot in the order.

Split	GS	PA	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip	tOPS+
Batting 1st	149	696	632	99	179	19	73	56	104	.283	.338	.476	.814	.310	111
Batting 2nd	108	489	451	49	111	10	42	27	86	.246	.292	.392	.684	.283	78
Batting 3rd	16	67	57	5	11	0	5	7	8	.193	.273	.316	.589	.216	55
Batting 4th	27	129	114	14	29	2	17	12	25	.254	.318	.386	.704	.300	84
Batting 5th	39	166	142	19	34	4	21	17	21	.239	.319	.408	.727	.250	90
Batting 6th	50	199	183	20	54	6	20	11	35	.295	.332	.481	.813	.333	110
Batting 7th	39	164	147	23	43	7	26	13	31	.293	.350	.517	.867	.324	124
Batting 8th	43	177	157	17	47	1	10	18	33	.299	.367	.478	.845	.368	120
Batting 9th	0	16	13	3	4	1	1	3	3	.308	.438	.538	.976	.333	155

The yawning gap in performance between #1 and #2 - both with significant PAs - is interesting, to say the least. It does seem Drew's best spot in the top half is easily batting leadoff, but I also note that his performances from #6-#8 are all solid, and reasonably consistent, albeit somewhat BABIP-assisted [his career number is .303]. While I'd still perhaps prefer seeing the new, sleeker, fungus-free CoJack bat leadoff for us, with his mad OBP skillz, I could likely live with Drew there.

I'll be looking to see what happens to Drew's defense in 2010. There were optimistic signs, discussed above, but one-year fielding numbers are notoriously unreliable, and so it's possible we could see him revert to being significantly below-average again. Hopefully, this won't be the case, and we'll see the improvement from last year more or less sustained. I'd perhaps like to see him run a bit more too: he went 9-0 stealing bases in 2007, though the ropey hamstring may explain part of last season's drop-off, especially in the first half, when he had only two SB.

It seems like a bigger question-mark is who'll be backing up Drew in 2010? That's a decision which may depend on whether or not we sign Adam Kennedy or another starter for second-base. If that proves to be the case, then we are left with a potential log-jam there, between Player X, Ryan Roberts, Tony Abreu and Ojeda. Nick Piecoro reported earlier in the month that Augie "has drawn interest from multiple teams in the trade market this week and dealing the popular backup isn’t out of the question for the Diamondbacks." Not sure what exactly the team might get as a result - except an air-strike from Rockkstarr12! But we'll see how things unfold.

NL West in Review: Shortstops

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:00:43 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

If UZR wasn't so strangely hard on Tulo, the Rockies' shortstop would be even higher above his competition.

View full size photo »

This is about as suspenseful as a modern day cookie-cutter horror flick. Not even our pudgy four-letter Philly fan can deny the proper anointment of the NL West's top shortstop in 2009. However, it wasn't quite so clear just last March.

Coming off of a miserable 0.8 WAR season in 2008 (at the same level as Brian Barton and Carlos Gonzalez), Troy Tulowitzki silenced all critics in 2009, giving the Rockies a clear advantage over every team in the West. In fact, the 6.85 WAR that Tulo, Barmes and Quintanilla generated represent the strongest infield position of any team in the division.

Even considering Tulo's down year, the preseason projections had the Rockies as clear favorites in the NL West, with Los Angeles, Arizona, San Francisco and San Diego following in order. Colorado delivered in a big way, representing the division's sole above average offensive unit. Everth Cabrera's surprising rookie season ruined what would have otherwise been an accurate ranking:


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Colorado	3	.298	32	96	.377	.536	.387	6.85
2. Los Angeles	4	.271	9	54	.330	.371	.321	3.64
3. Arizona	3	.265	12	73	.332	.417	.326	2.49
4. San Diego	4	.231	4	43	.319	.328	.304	1.98
5. San Francisco	4	.255	11	72	.306	.353	.296	0.74

Shortstop was the most stable position among divisional infield positions, as all five teams had clear full-time starters from start to finish. With the positional RAR set at +7.5, here is the graphical RAR representation:

For the full rankings and team rundowns, turn the corner.

Seventeen different men manned shortstop, including Josh Wilson twice (for San Diego and Arizona), and all but five were above replacement level:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	628	.296	32	92	.377	.551	.362	-1.2	5.07
2	Rafael Furcal	LAD	671	.266	8	45	.331	.368	.321	8.0	3.24
3	Stephen Drew	AZ	586	.262	12	65	.320	.432	.334	3.4	3.00
4	Everth Cabrera	SDP	437	.255	2	31	.343	.362	.335	-11.7	0.84
5	Augie Ojeda	AZ	116	.289	0	6	.381	.371	.331	3.2	0.83
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
14	Blake DeWitt	LAD	5	.000	0	0	.200	.000	.141	-0.4	-0.08
15	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	119	.196	1	6	.314	.268	.272	-1.8	-0.12
16	Kevin Frandsen	SFG	20	.056	0	0	.150	.056	.119	-0.2	-0.21
17	Chris Burke	SDP	76	.214	1	5	.276	.314	.268	-2.6	-0.23
18	Josh Wilson	SDP	42	.108	0	1	.195	.162	.141	-2.0	-0.55

Edgar Renteria was one of the first signings last offseason, before the market crashed. Consequently, his contract looks silly now, as he just finished the first year of a two year $18million contract. Nine million of that will come in 2010, with an obvious $500k buyout to be exercised next offseason. The option year in 2010 is for $10.5million. If Renteria falters there more, the Giants could do a lot worse than using Juan Uribe there.

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part VI: Defense

Jim McLennan — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:33:06 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

One of three AZ errors in a nightmarish inning against Anaheim in J.U.N.E. - as in Justin Upton's Newest Error. But was he really that bad?

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Few losses were more spectacularly painful for the 2009 Diamondbacks than the one which we endured in Seattle on June 21st. With the game tied in the bottom of the ninth, Clay Zavada loaded the bases with two down. Enter Chad Qualls, who got a ground-ball to Mark Reynolds, who made a perfect throw across to Tony Clark at first, for the last out of the inning, to send the game into extras. Except, Clark muffed it, dropping the ball and the winning run cantered across home-plate. That was one sad example of what seemed to plague Arizona for much of the year - just a week later, another inter-league game, against Anaheim, turned into a meltdown with three Angels batters reaching on D-backs' errors in the same frame.

Looking at some defensive stats, it would seem very clear that it's an area in which the Diamondbacks need to improve significantly, if they are to have any hope of challenging next season. However, as ever, after the jump, we'll be taking a look at a broader range of numbers and whether they can add any depth to the picture. We'll also see who they say was the best defender on the team this year. You might be surprised by the answer.

By just about every basic metric, our defense was undeniably among the worst around. With 124 errors, the Arizona Diamondbacks were ahead of only the Washington Nationals (143) - and that's in all of major-league baseball, not just the NL. At 68.0%, their defensive efficiency - the percentage of balls in play which e converted into outs - was better than just the Astros (67.6%) in the National League. We turned only 132 twin-killings (ok: technically, it was 131 and a triple-play), fifteen below league-average and ahead of one team, the Marlins (129). If there's any hope, it's that we had significantly fewer errors over the last 81 games (fifty) than the first 81 games (seventy-four). Let's start by breaking down the errors to see what positions were the source of our problem.

2009 Arizona errors
Pos	Err.	NL Av.	Rank
C	9	8	=5th
1B	15	10	=2nd
2B	11	13	=10th
3B	27	19	3rd
SS	16	18	9th
LF	9	6	3rd
CF	5	5	=5th
RF	13	5	1st
P	19	13	2nd

While Mark Reynolds may have made more individual errors than anyone else, third-base was not an especially problematic positions for us. First-base, right-field and - perhaps surprisingly - our pitchers, all made 45% or more errors above NL average. Whatever Doug Davis's merits, his fielding wasn't apparently one of them, as he was tied for the league-lead in errors, with five. Jon Garland was just behind, committing four, but especially notable was Blaine Boyer, who had three errors in only nine chances. At the other end, Dan Haren was one of four NL pitchers to be perfect when given more than 40 chances (Wainwright, Josh Johnson and Livan Hernandez were the others).

For right-field, I don't think I need go into specifics - I could just post Justin Upton's baseball card as an explanation there. At first-base, things probably weren't helped by the lack of a regular man at the position. Chad Tracy (56) started most there, but we had six other names written into the line-up, ranging from Brandon Allen (29 games) down to Rusty Ryal (five). Mark Reynolds was responsible for one-third of the 1B errors, despite starting only 24 games there. The vast majority (21) were before the All-Star break, and I doubt we'll see much of him there in 2010. For the next chart, we break down the E's into catching, fielding and throwing errors, and compare to NL average.

Error by type + position
Pos	Cch	Fld	Thr
C NL	11% 4%	0% 18%	89% 78%
1B NL	27% 22%	60% 54%	13% 24%
2B NL	0% 11%	71% 53%	29% 37%
3B NL	0% 1%	48% 54%	52% 44%
SS NL	6% 7%	38% 49%	56% 44%
LF NL	0% 0%	33% 74%	67% 26%
CF NL	0% 0%	80% 75%	20% 25%
RF NL	0% 0%	77% 80%	23% 20%
P NL	0% 8%	5% 22%	95% 70%

We are dealing with pretty small numbers, especially in the Arizona sample, so caution should be exercised. However, a couple of numbers do stand out as worthy of mention. The pitchers' problems mentioned above seem to be almost entirely on the throws, and the same goes for left-field - that ties in with my memories of the Parrazooka mis-firing in that position. Also worth mentioning is the change in numbers between 2008 and 2009 for Mark Reynolds. He made half as many errors at third on throws last season as in 2008 (18-9), on almost the same number of total chances. His fielding errors were also down, (15-10), but it's Mark's throws that really improved.

There's no doubt the errors tell a sorry tale of the problems in Arizona, but as we saw (in some depth!) earlier this season, they are far from the whole story as far as defense is concerned. There's a whole raft of numbers which go beyond the simple error, and some don't cast the Diamondbacks defense in such a bad light. Leading the pack would be Fangraph.com's UZR - see the above link for more info on it. As measured by that, the Diamondbacks' defense overall were at +22.0, which was fifth-best in the National League. WTF? Shome mishtake, shurely? Well, here's the breakdown of UZR by position. Yes. Another table... [Note: UZR isn't calculated for catchers or pitchers]

2009 AZ UZR by pos.
Pos	UZR	NL Rk
1B	-7.0	15th
2B	14.0	2nd
3B	-3.7	=9th
SS	7.2	2nd
LF	14.1	5th
CF	-13.1	14th
RF	10.4	2nd

There are some radical differences here, though UZR does concur with Errors that first-base was our worst position or thereabouts. Second-base comes up as a strength too - it has to be said, Felipe Lopez far from disgraced himself there this season, and we find ourselves in the same place as we were last winter, with a big questionmark at the spot. However, it's the contrast at CF and RF which are most striking. If you looked purely at errors, you'd think Chris Young was about average, while Justin Upton was the worst in the majors, commiting more by himself than the entire outfield of eight teams. However, UZR strongly disagrees, rating Young at -7.4, ninth of 11 qualifying fielders, while Upton was at +6.3, tied for Jason Werth as best in the league.

Before we anoint J-Up as unjustly robbed of the Gold Glove, we should probably do some checking. There has been some interesting work done lately on the accuracy possible by the hit-tracking systems, on which metrics like UZR depend. These are still human-powered - there's no version of PITCH/fx, which uses multiple cameras to objectively record location and speed. As a result, the 95% confidence level is +/- eighteen feet and four degrees of direction. That's a significant margin for error. If we contrast the Baseball Prospectus stat, Fielding Runs Above Average, it gives Arizona a combined total of -38. That seems to sit closer to what we'd intuitively expect. But even here, we see Chris Young in the basement at -13 and Justin Upton leading the way at +9.

Let's check one more. Bill James just released his Fielding Bible Awards for 2009, which combine votes from a number of sources. You won't be surprised to learn that no-one on the Diamondbacks won anything, but the following players were mentioned - note that these do not separate AL and NL, so the ranks are among all major-league players. Miguel Montero (13th, C); no-one at 1B; Ryan Roberts (13th, 2B); Mark Reynolds (16th, 3B); Stephen Drew (13th, SS); Gerardo Parra (19th, LF); Chris Young (10th, CF); Justin Upton (4th, RF); Jon Garland (P, 6th). So maybe Upton really was the best fielder on the Diamondbacks last year.

A couple of other things to note. Not all Arizona pitchers saw balls in play converted into outs at the same rate. If you look at the Defensive Efficiency figures for those who pitched 40 innings or more, there's a wide gap between the conversion rate for Leo Rosales (73.9% of balls in play became outs) and Billy Buckner (63.2%). Now, while these numbers need to be broken down more - it could just be that Rosales induced more infield flies, and Buckner more line drives - one would tend to expect both numbers to regress towards the team's overall mean (68.0%). Might be another reason to give Buckner a shot in the rotation next year.

Finally, let's take a look at the outfield: how were they at holding runners, and stopping them from taking a base. There are a lot of different scenarios involved here. Runner on first and a single; do they go to third? Or if they're on second, do they go home? What about advancing on a sacrifice fly? You can break down the numbers for each situation: here they are for our LF, CF and RF players. In total, however, the "hold rates" for the positions, the National League average and the number of "kills" - runners thrown out - were as follows. LF: 66.8% (63.3% ave, one kill). CF: 37.6% (44.0% ave, three kills). RF: 52.7% (50.5% ave, four kills). This is more evidence Young's 2009 defense wasn't up to much - not least because all three kills were by Parra...

Overall, there is a huge amount of room for improvement in this team's defense. Not necessarily in their range, which seems not to be the issue. It's more in the "fundamentals" side, such as hitting the cut-off man, knowing where about you have to be on a play, and not making mental mistakes. The raw talent and skills on view in the field were sometimes very impressive in 2009: however, too often, there was a problem with converting that into outs. And as Mark Grace said, if you habitually give a major-league team four outs in an inning, they will eventually bury you. Sound basic baseball needs to be the focus of this team in spring training next year, and if the players aren't on board with that, they should get familiar with the bench.

I was going to talk about our baserunning as well, but I've already gone on longer than expected, so that will have to wait for part...er, seven. I hope to have this series finished in time for Opening Day. Mind you, I'm not saying which Opening Day...

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Washington Nationals News: Ian Desmond's DWL Debut, Lerner On The Media.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 05:44:07 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' Justin Maxwell, right, and Ian Desmond, leave the field after winning 4-3 against the New York Mets, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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• In the most recent edition of MLB.com's Bill Ladson's "Nats Inbox: What's in store for Storen", Mr. Ladson responds to a question about what the future holds for Nationals' infielder Ian Desmond and outfielder Justin Maxwell, by noting that Maxwell was, "...inconsistent with the bat," while with Desmond, "...there is a question about his defense. He made over 30 errors this past season," (34 total between Harrisburg, Syracuse and DC) and as a result, "...some in the organization have some doubts about them." Sounds like, if Mr. Ladson's right, the Nationals will be in the market for a middle infielder...Orlando Hudson, Stephen Drew? Who should the Nationals pursue?

• Ian Desmond made his Dominican Winter League debut with the Tigres del Licey last night, batting second and starting at short, but going 0 for 4 with a K in a 4-1 Tigres' win over the Gigantes del Cibao. With Licey ahead 4-1 in the 8th, former Dodgers' reliever Yhency Brazoban gave up a two-out single and walk and the Tigres' called upon Nationals' pitching prospect Atahualpa Severino to get the last out of the inning, which he did by striking out former Rangers', Twins', Orioles', Indians', Mariners' and Rangers' prospect Jose Morban to end the eighth and preserve the Tigres' 3-run lead.

• Final Score - Tigres 4, Gigantes 1. - MLB.com

(ed. note - "In case you didn't know, and I didn't until last night, Federal Baseball.com regular, CD3K discovered that the DWL's Tigres del Licey are streaming games live over at Licey.com. So when Dukes gets down there and starts working on hitting breaking stuff, there will be a few DC prospects to watch every night...")

BACKPAGE:

• Nationals' Owner Mark Lerner On The DC Media.

• Strasburg + PitchFX = Awesome.

BACKPAGE:

• Nationals' Owner Mark Lerner On The DC Media.

"'I'm also probably past being disappointed with some of our regular reporters or columnists. As one of Ted Leonsis' minority partners with the Washington Capitals, I learned that some sports reporters or columnists don't let the facts get in the way of passing opinions.'"

That's Nationals Principal Owner Mark Lerner talking about the coverage the Nationals received in the DC media when prompted by MLB.com's Bill Ladson in a wide-ranging interesting interview entitled, "Q&A with principal owner Lerner", and Mr. Lerner doesn't stop there, stating that he's, "...learned that some sports reporters or columnists don't let the facts get in the way of passing opinions,"...and it just doesn't stop...four paragraphs worth:

"...it seems some reporters just don't even know what they don't know, and often don't even know what they think they know."

"As a fan, and as an owner, no one hates to lose more than I do, but I like to base my opinions and my emotions on fact, not on cocktail party suppositions. That's the difference between a mature fan or pundit, and a childish tantrum...

"I have had to learn not to expect more from some of the folks covering the Nationals. My friends have been telling me that for a few years...

"I have to remind myself that the job of many reporters is filling column inches more than being factual or informed."

(ed. note - "The reaction pieces that are sure to follow should be interesting. The link above will lead you to the full interview, which you really should read in its entirety...but... Wow...not since the current administration called out FOX...or since "41" called out Olbermann and Maddow...not sinc....sorry, forgot about my own no politics rule...")

Elsewhere in Mr. Ladson's interview, Mr. Lerner lists the, "Five things (which) happened in '09 that Nats fans will look back to as critical to the success we'll have in the future," (in this order):

The offseason signing of Adam Dunn.
The extension of Ryan Zimmerman's contract.
The midseason trade for Nyjer Morgan.
The 2009 First-Year Player Draft. (read: Strasburg and Storen).
The signing of Mike Rizzo.

(ed. note - "For the record, Mr. Lerner, you and I were not far off as far as '09's Top Stories go...Here's my own Top 5 from earlier this offseason..."):

(ed. note - "You'll never guess who Mr. Lerner settles on as the Nationals' '09 MVP...and he's another +1 on Zimmerman for the Gold Glove. Again, MLB.com's Bill Ladson's Must Read Interview With Mark Lerner.")

• Strasburg + PitchFX = Awesome.

Washington Times' writer Tim Lemke notes, in his article entitled, "Pitch F/X for Strasburg Thursday", that MLB.com's GameDay and their Pitch F/X System will be there tomorrow to capture the, "velocity, angle and movement" of each and every pitch DC's '09 1st Round pick Stephen Strasburg throws in a late afternoon game against the city of Peoria, Arizona's second-favorite AFL team, the Peo Javelinas in a game that starts at 3:35 pm EST, (I believe it's 3:35 pm EST, though Mr. Lemke lists it as 2:35 pm EST in his article...MLB.com's schedule has it at 12:35 pm MST...Arizona's three hours behind the east coast, right?") There will be a GameThread up if anyone's at the game or following along...

Searching for the Astros Skipper, Weekend Rundown

davoag — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 15:24:26 -0000

Six candidates interviewed in the past three days, and five of them haven't been profiled yet. But before we move on to that, I thought it'd be constructive to get a historical perspective on the job they're interviewing for. What do these guys need to do to become the best manager of the 18 in Astro history? Here's a handy reference chart:

Most wins by a Houston manager: Bill Virdon, 544

Most playoff appearances: Larry Dierker, 4

Most seasons at the helm: Bill Virdon, 8

Most wins in career (non-Houston): Leo Durocher, 2,008

First up on the managerial rewind is Bob Melvin, former Arizona Diamondbacks skipper:

Bob Melvin
     Age: 47
     Hometown: Palo Alto, Calif.
     College: California.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Arizona Diamondbacks.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Managed the Seattle Mariners in 2003-04 and Arizona Diamondbacks from 2005 until he was dismissed on May 9 of this year after a 12-17 start. He won 93 games with Seattle in 2003 but didn't make the playoffs and lost 99 games the following year. Melvin was hired by the Diamondbacks and led Arizona to the 2007 NL West title before being swept in the NLCS by the Colorado Rockies. He was NL Manager of the Year in 2007.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Melvin spent most of his career as a backup catcher for 10 seasons with Detroit, San Francisco, Baltimore, Kansas City, Boston, the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox. He hit .233 with 35 homers and 212 RBIs in 692 career games.
    Did you know: Melvin was hired by Arizona to replace Wally Backman, who was dismissed before he managed a single game because of past discretions?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Once we started to focus in on some names and we did our homework and talked to people like Pat Gillick and [former Diamondbacks general manager] Joe Garagolia Jr., they thought he did a good job."

Melvin was a hot candidate when he landed with Seattle back in 2003, but had an up-and-down tenure in Arizona. He did usher in a bunch of kids and helped the D'Backs to win the 2007 NL West title, but he also oversaw the under-development of guys like Chris Young and Stephen Drew. His bullpen management was also spotty, mainly because he constantly changed closers due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

The interesting thing about Melvin is he had almost the exact opposite situation in Arizona that he'd have here in Houston. Out there, his rotation consisted of Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson and Dan Haren for at least part of his tenure. That's three top-flight starters breezing through town, while his offense struggled for the most part. Arizona finished 14th in runs scored in 2007, 10th in 2008 and though the D'Backs finished 9th in 2009, they also gave up the third-most runs in the league. For comparison, they gave up the fifth-least runs in both 2007 and 2008.

So, though his offense did trend upwards over the past three seasons, once they lost Webb and Johnson, the D'Backs pitching fell off a cliff. I wonder how much discussion went into what he'd do with Houston's rotation?

Moving on to the next candidate, Phil Garner:

Phil Garner
     Age: 60
     Hometown: Jefferson City, Tenn.
     College: Tennessee.
     Most recent job: Manager of the Astros
     Previous Major League managing experience: Garner managed for more than 14 years in the Majors, spending eight seasons in Milwaukee (1992-1999) and two full seasons in Detroit (2000-01) before being dismissed six games into 2002 season. He took over the Astros at the All-Star break in 2004 and led them to the NLCS and a year later to the World Series. He was let go with 31 games left in the 2007 season and has been out of baseball since.
     Major League managing record: 985-1,054.
     Minor League managing experience: None.
     Minor League managing record: None.
     Playing experience: Spent 16 seasons in the Major Leagues with Oakland, Pittsburgh, Houston, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco and hit .260 with 109 homers and 738 RBIs in 1,860 games. He helped Pittsburgh to the 1979 World Series title by hitting .500 in the World Series. He played with the Astros from 1981-87 and appeared in more games with the Astros than he did with any other team.
    Did you know: Garner became a candidate after calling Astros president of baseball operations Tal Smith to recommend Bob Melvin for the job?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've known Phil since we crossed paths in 1981 when I went to the Pirates and he was there. I've been a big fan from afar in Detroit and then here his record speaks for itself. He's a tremendous candidate."

Not going to spend too much time on Scrap Iron, but suffice it to say, he's got an interesting candidacy. Using that whole good cop, bad cop theory of coach hiring, Garner was the perfect, laid-back guy to get the manager's job from Jimy Williams, who was a little more on the prickly side. After Gar was Cecil Cooper, who turned out to have his own prickly side. Naturally, the team thought of the laid-back Garner again...wait, what? I've stopped trying to think about why they'd consider a guy they fired so recently, so let's just move on...

Next up is Pete Mackanin:

Pete Mackanin
     Age: 58
     Hometown: Chicago.
     College: Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently the bench coach for the Philadelphia Phillies.
     Previous Major League managing experience: Has been interim manager twice, with Pittsburgh in 2005 and Cincinnati in 2007. He went 12-14 in the final 26 games with the Pirates in '05 and 41-39 in the second half of the season two years later with the Reds, who had the worst record in the Majors when Mackanin took over.
     Major League managing record: 53-53.
     Minor League managing experience: Managed in the Minor Leagues for 13 seasons and won championships in 1995 (Ottawa of the International League), 2002 (Lynchburg of the Carolina League) and 1990 (Nashville, Eastern Division championship of the American Association). Mackanin has also managed in Venezuela League, Dominican winter league and Puerto Rican winter league. He also has seven years of Major League coaching experience with Pittsburgh and Montreal.
     Minor League managing record: 917-849.
     Playing experience: Played for nine years as an infielder in the Major Leagues with Texas (1973-74), Montreal (1975-77), Philadelphia (1978-79) and Montreal (1980-81). He hit .226 with 30 homers and 141 RBIs in 548 career games.
      Did you know: Mackanin has been succeeded twice by Jim Tracy as a manager, with Class A Peoria in 1986 and the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2006? He succeeded Tracy as manager at Triple-A Ottawa in 1995.
     What GM Ed Wade said: "Pete served as interim manager it Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and had great results taking over in Cincinnati. I talked to Wayne Krivsky, who as the GM [in Cincinnati] at the time, and he was a really big advocate of Pete's. He has managing experience in winter, extensively in the Minor Leagues and on two Major League club. He has a great personality and a good sense of humor."

The most interesting thing about Mackanin was what he did with the 2007 Reds. That team had 51 losses when he took over in July and went on to win 41 of their last 80 games. Basically, Mackanin played .500 ball for the last half of the season. Of course, those same Reds finished above the league average in runs scored in 2007 but dead last in runs allowed. The Reds were hitting .254 as a team when Mackanin took over and finished by hitting .279 over the last three months of the season, including a team line of .309/.375/.499 in August. Good seasons by Scott Hatteberg, Brandon Phillips, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Hamilton show that Mackanin has experience getting the most out of some very different personalities.

Still, the pitching woes of the Reds that season is at least a little troubling. Mackanin used his bullpen for 263 innings and had an ERA above 5 with his relievers in the second half. His overall ERA jumped up to 5.11 from 4.79 as well, though he basically had to cobble together a rotation behind Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo. This is definitely another case of a guy who needs to answer quite a few questions about what he sees with the Astros pitching staff.

Next is former Astros shortstop Tim Bogar:

Tim Bogar
     Age: 45
     Hometown: Indianapolis, Ind.
     College: Eastern Illinois.
     Most recent job: Currently first -base coach for Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Spent four seasons as manager in the Minor Leagues with Cleveland (2006-07) and the Astros (2004-05) and went to the playoff in three of those seasons. Led Double-A Akron to the Eastern League title in '06 and '07 and was named the league's Manager of the Year in '06. He was named Manger of the Year in the Appalachian League in 2004 in his first year of managing at Class A Greeneville. The next year, he led Class A Lexington to an 81-58 record, the best record in the South Atlantic League.
     Minor League managing record: 289-200.
     Playing experience: An infielder who spent nine years in the Major Leagues with the New York Mets, the Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, Bogar hit .228 with 24 homers and 161 RBIs in 701 career games. He started a career-high 82 games at shortstop for the Astros in 2000 whiles sharing time with Julio Lugo.
    Did you know: Bogar played all nine positions in an exhibition game for the Mets against Triple-A Norfolk in 1996?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "When this process started, a lot of people spoke very favorable of Tim. I don't know him, but certainly there are multiple people, including people on our interview committee and [president of baseball operations] Tal [Smith] and others, that felt Bogar fit the profile extremely well. Despite the fact he hasn't managed in the big leagues, they felt the experience they had with him and dealing with players [was positive]."

Bogar brings back fond memories of that late '90s playoff era, and has been a surprisingly effective minor league manager. The thing that sticks out to me was a couple years after he retired, he visited the Astros in Kissimmee as a Rawlings sales representative. The irony of a guy known for his glovework selling gloves to teams was not lost on me at the time.

Yet another anecdote I recall from his time with the Astros: some time in that playoff run (I believe it was 1997), Bogar broke his arm and had to spend the rest of the season on the bench. He credited Dierker with helping him see the field as a manager at the time, and claimed it helped him play smarter when he was on the field. Since he never hit much, it was nice to think our shorstop was sort of a manager on the field, and I remember Dierker praising his acumen on helping the fielders around him. Of course, I cannot now find any evidence of this. Still, I do recall reading about that back in the day.

I'm not sure what Bogar's strengths or weaknesses as a manager might be. We can assume that he'd help their fielding, but that's too simple a conjecture to really be true. Plus, the Astros have actually been a pretty good fielding club for the past couple of seasons. For all the grief I've given Tejada for the past two seasons, he's a good defender. Yes, he doesn't really have the range to play short any more, but he's a vacuum cleaner out there when the ball is hit near him.

Lastly, let's look at Brad Mills, bench coach for the Boston Red Sox:

Brad Mills
     Age: 52
     Hometown: Exeter, Calif.
     College: College of the Sequoias/University of Arizona.
     Most recent job: Currently bench coach for the Boston Red Sox.
     Previous Major League managing experience: None.
     Major League managing record: None.
     Minor League managing experience: Mills managed 11 seasons in the Minor Leagues in the Cubs (1987-92), Rockies (1993-96) and Dodgers (2002) organizations, moving into managing immediately upon the completion of his playing career. He led the Rockies' Triple-A club in Colorado Springs to the playoffs in 1994 and Pacific Coast League title in 1995. He last managed in 2002, when he guided the Dodgers' Triple- A Las Vegas affiliate to a club-record 85 wins the PCL's Southern Division championship.
     Minor League managing record: Unavailable.
     Playing experience: Appeared in 106 career games over four seasons, all with the Montreal Expos (1980-1983). He hit .256 with one homer and 12 RBIs in 168 at-bats.
     Did you know: Mills was Nolan Ryan's 3,509th career strikeout victim, lifting Ryan past Walter Johnson as baseball's all-time strikeout king in 1983?
     What GM Ed Wade said: "I've always had great respect for Brad. [Boston manager] Terry Francona made a point of calling me when the search began and gave a strong endorsement for Millsy and he got a strong endorsement from [Boston general manager] Theo Epstein. Despite the fact he hasn't managed the big-league level, everyone knows he's got tremendous experience working as [Francona's] right-hand guy in Philadelphia and Boston and managed in the Minor Leagues."

It's easy to assume that the bench coach is the guy next in line for the managerial position. After all, that's what Cecil Cooper did for all those years and it's what a ton of other guys have done over the years (Joe Maddon, possibly? I can't remember anything today). Still, it appears that the pitching coach in Boston, John Farrell, is the heir-apparent to Francona and not Mills. That explains why he'd be interested in our position. Now, why should the Astros care about him? Was this interview just a way to get Bogar on the docket?

Mills is right in the middle of the candidate pool, age-wise. He's not as young as Manny Acta or Bogar, nor is he as old as Garner or Mackanin. He's won consistently in the minor leagues and certainly has been around a winning ball club there in Boston. The Red Sox run their organization the way I'd hope the Astros will someday, making decisions based partly on numbers and partly on traditional scouting. They spend a ton of money, but they just don't throw it around too frivolously (ahem*Dice-K*ahem). How much contact Mills has with this side of the team, I don't know. The other side of that coin is, if that's what Mills is used to, can he work for the Astros, who don't seem to run their team in quite the same way? Food for thought.

Thus endeth Round One. With the word that Manny Acta is a finalist for the Cleveland job, are the Astros now taking too long in their search? What could a second round of interviews possibly tell them that this one didn't? We've already got to wait until after the World Series to announce who the new skipper is, but that doesn't mean they can't go ahead and hire them ahead of time and announce it later. What's your top five list of the candidates and who do you think will end up getting hired?

Poll

Who is your top candidate?

Tim Bogar

34 votes

Pete Mackanin

16 votes

Manny Acta

39 votes

Brad Mills

20 votes

Bob Melvin

25 votes

Al Pedrique

2 votes

Dave Clark

6 votes

Phil Garner

64 votes

Ned Yost

19 votes

Randy Ready

1 votes

226 votes | Poll has closed

10/19 - There May Not Be Stupid Questions, But There Sure Are Some Stupid Answers

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 09:00:27 -0000

Debuting the header today, folks - still a work in progress, probably always will be. Any suggestions would be great.

Well, since that's the balloon boy of the post, let's move on to ACTUAL news.

Miguel Tejada Is Right Answer, But Not to Biggest Question - NESN.com

Put down the bottle, Mr. Beattie. Seriously, Tejada is probably plan G for Theo at the SS position, right before a 4 man outfield.

Big-Name Free Agents on Menu for Red Sox This Offseason - NESN.com

So many issues with this link - a few big ones:

Marco Scutaro: Along with Figgins, he's one of the best possible solutions to the Red Sox' shortstop dilemma. No one's paying attention, but Scutaro had a season to remember in 2009 -- with 35 doubles, 90 walks and an OBP of .379, he quickly vaulted to the top of the heap among the AL's best offensive shortstops. If the Red Sox can get Scutaro to scoot into Boston this winter, he'd be a huge boost to their offense.

1) They never mentioned Figgins helping the SS situation at all in his little blurb, most likely because he doesn't. 2) He's not one of the best possible solutions - he had a huge outlier of a career year, is getting close to NG's age cut-off, and he's not going to be cheap either. 3) I love when the Mainstream Media accuses us of ignorance, when they're the ones who decide what the majority of people hear and see. Besides, Scutaro's gotten quite a bit of recognition around the blogosphere.

Continuing the breakdown after the break, along with some more links.

Orlando Cabrera: If nothing else, there's sentimental value.

Johnny Damon: Perhaps he's Cabrera's opposite sentimentally, but the 24 homers and 36 doubles in 2009 are hard to ignore. If Jason Bay doesn't end up back in Boston, maybe Damon should.

Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Magglio Ordonez, Jermaine Dye, Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu: All of a sudden, heavy-hitting corner outfielders are a dime a dozen. The Sox would love to have Bay back in Boston, but if they can't get a deal done, there are many contingency plans in the works. Any one of these guys would be a serviceable, if not ideal, replacement for Bay next season.

OCab - no "if."

Damon - get off the bottle.

Holliday - sure, if he's cheaper than Bay.

Vlad - MAYBE.

Crawford - if the Rays let him go, sign him immediately and then call up Friedman and laugh your asses off.

Maggs - hell no, we weren't going to take him in exchange for getting rid of Lugo, fool.

Dye - again, MAYBE, but only if there's no one else decent left.

Godzilla - short LF =/= no need for knees.

Abreu - sure, if he's WAY cheaper than Bay or Holliday and they're both gone.

NESN's reporters are really disappointing me of late - let's see if the independent press is less dumb.

The Blue Sox: Why Boston's Boys Are the Democrats Of Baseball Bleacher Report
Oh...kay... Umm... I'm going to move on, because I'd really rather not start up a flame war (although, I will say that it is weird to be a conservative* and like the Sox). The article is well-written, and describes the parallel better than most could. It also shows the weird connection that baseball and politics has always had.

*Yes, conservative. Not Republican. Right now, I need that difference to exist, because the GOP is being way too stupid for me to support them.

Looking back, looking forward - Chad Finn's Touching All The Bases

Mattingly may be ready to step up to the plate in managerial position - The Boston Globe

2. Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks - He is expected to be shopped by the Diamondbacks, and there should be discussions with the Red Sox. Stephen is not the OPS machine that big brother J.D. is (.748 this season) but his other numbers weren’t bad for a shortstop: .261, 12 homers, 65 RBIs (only three fewer than J.D.). He also made only 11 errors. Who knows if hitting in a more patient lineup will help his OPS?

3. Victor Martinez, C, Red Sox - If he is the full-time, 100- to 110-game catcher next season, scouts believe he needs to shorten his release to be better at throwing out runners. Martinez, according to one scout, "long-arms his throws. It just takes him too long to get the ball down to second base. In order to combat that, you either have to have pitchers who can hold runners on base, which the Red Sox don’t, or have them do slide-steps and things of that nature, which they don’t like to do, either.’’ Gary Tuck supposedly is one of the best catching instructors in the game, so one would think he’d improve this with Martinez.

5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres - This is the fellow I suspect the Sox will go after. They would then move Kevin Youkilis to third, with Ortiz and Mike Lowell sharing DH duties. Gonzalez came very close to getting traded to the Mariners at the deadline in a five-for-one (Seattle wouldn’t give up a certain fifth minor leaguer). Only question is, do the Sox have enough players to give San Diego?

6. Ron Mahay, LHP, Twins - He would love to re-sign with the Twins but wouldn’t rule out a return to Boston, where he was a replacement outfielder in 1995 (.200 AB in 20 at-bats) and a pitcher in the late ’90s. "It was a long time ago, but I loved that place,’’ said Mahay. "I’ve played a lot of places in my career and lasted a long time, but I’ll never forget Boston.’’ Mahay appeared in 16 games for the Twins after being released by the Royals and had a 2.00 ERA. Among the hitters he dominates: Eric Chavez (0 for 17), Raul Ibanez (3 for 18, 9 K’s), Ichiro Suzuki (3 for 13), Joe Mauer (2 for 13), Justin Morneau (2 for 12), Alex Rodriguez (1 for 7), Jorge Posada (1 for 8), Ramirez (0 for 6).

Too tired to give this link the same service as the NESN one. Anyone else want to give it a shot?

Washington Nationals' Skipper Search: Mid-October Edition.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 04:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

4 months ago: Mike Rizzo, left, who has been Washington Nationals acting general manager, talks during a news conference after being named general manager and senior vice president of baseball operations, as team president Stan Kasten listens Thursday, Aug. 20, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

Browse more photos »

• The Cleveland Indians are said to be interested in bringing in Bobby Valentine, after having fired Eric Wedge at end of the regular season, but they interviewed Manny Acta last week, and the Houston Astros, who parted ways with skipper Cecil Cooper, reportedly interviewed Acta and Bob Melvin, the former Mariners' and D-Backs' manager who has history with Mike Rizzo, now the Washington Nationals' GM, who has interviewed...no one? DC GM Mike Rizzo told Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, as quoted in an article last week entitled, "Front Office Moves...And The Decision That Follows", that filling several important Front Office positions was the first order of business this winter, and now that they had:

"The [managerial] search is going to begin a little more seriously in the very near future..."

Mr. Rizzo cited the team's desire to settle things in the front office and the participation in the post season of several potential managerial candidates as reasons the Nationals' search might be delayed, but never fear, if all the other managers looking for jobs sign elsewhere, according to Mr. Rizzo, "We've got a terrific in-house candidate in Jim Riggleman, who's got as good a chance as anybody." Let's see...The Nationals waited for Jim Bowden to resign, or allowed him to resign rather than firing him, then waited until a thorough search could be conducted before naming a full-time GM only to eventually promote Mike Rizzo from his interim role to the full-time position, and now they're taking their time wading into the manager market...I wonder how this will resolve itself?...After all, don't forget what Mr. Rizzo told MLB.com's Bill Ladson about the job Mr. Riggleman had done back in a late August blog post entitled, "What happens to Riggleman?":

"'I certainly like what Jim has done. I'm the one who made him the interim manager. It was my decision,' Rizzo said. 'He is an old-school baseball guy with a lot of new ideas. He is certainly going to be a candidate for the permanent managerial job, but that's a discussion we are going to have after the season is over and throughout the winter. There is going to be a process.'"

• What's That? Bowden Again? I noted last night that Former DC GM Jim Bowden tweeted about the decision LA Hitting Coach Don Mattingly faces, but he also tweeted an update of the Astros' and Indians' skipper searches:

"Astros...Melvin/Garner front-runners; Indians Valentine,Acta, Lovullo front-runners for Managerial openings."

Latest From Bowden Twitter:This one went out Sunday night:

"Managerial leading candidates: Cleveland: Valentine,Acta & Lovullo; Houston: Garner, Melvin; WSH: Mattingly."

• Speaking of Don Mattingly...Boston.com writer Nick Carfado writes about Mattingly possibly becoming a manager in an article on Sunday entitled, "Mattingly may be ready to step up to the plate in a managerial position", but he doesn't mention the Nationals, writing only that, "Mattingly, 48, is expected to draw the interest of the Indians and perhaps Astros."

• One thing Mr. Carfado does mention, however, is the fact that the D-Backs' shortstop Stephen Drew, "...is expected to be shopped by the Diamondbacks..." and though Mr. Carfado concludes the sentence by writing, "...and there should be discussions with the Red Sox", I have to wonder if DC GM Mike Rizzo, who's made no secret of his desire to add a middle infielder would consider pursuing Drew, who was drafted by Arizona when Rizzo was the D-Backs' Scouting Director.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Outfield

davoag — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 16:15:09 -0000

We take a break from the managerial search to look at the Astros' 2009 outfield. The three starters in Lee, Bourn and Pence combined to be the most productive portion of the offense in a number of ways. Each totaled over 600 plate appearances and two of the three hit 25 home runs. While the Astros offense has its problems, the outfield isn't one of them. A bigger problem, though, is on the horizon.

Right now, the biggest strength in Houston's farm system is in the outfield. Players like Collin DeLome, Koby Clemens, Jon Gaston and Jay Austin all play the outfield and could be ready to play in Houston by 2011. One question to consider: would you trade one or both of the corner outfielders for pitching depth this off-season, though it may weaken the team for a season or two? Hypothetical questions aside, let's get to the analysis after the jump...

Carlos Lee, LF

2009 Season Stats: 610 PA, .300/.343/.489, 35 doubles, 1 triple, 26 HR, 65 runs, 102 RBIs, 5 for 8 stolen bases, 51 strikeouts, 119 OPS+

WAR: 2.4

UZR: -6.1

VORP: 36.2

Notes: Lee has turned into the opposite of a fan favorite these days. His lack of hustle on the basepaths and his worsening defense in left field make him an easy target, but there are few hitters more consistent than Lee. Last season, Lee collected at least 25 hits in each month except April and had a batting average over .300 in three of the six months in the season. On the negative side, Lee hit just .262/.308/.446 in the 88 Astros' losses while hitting .345/.384/.540. Love him or hate him, as went Lee, so went the Astros offense in 2009. The 33-year old had the second-highest OPS+ for Houston and had a theoretically-low BABiP of .290. Of course, this is largely explained by his low strikeout total and is exactly on the nose of his career BABiP. The distressing part of it is that Lee's OPS+ was his lowest total since the 2005 season in Milwaukee, when he posted a 109 OPS+. Lee does have value, as he's a very good bat in the middle of the order. The only way his bat offsets his terrible other baseball skills is if he continues hitting like a Top 20 guy. Guys his age, with his body type tend to drop off a cliff pretty quickly with the aging curve. Let's hope Lee can put up at least one more decent season before his contract expires.

Michael Bourn, CF

2009 Season Stats: 678 PA, .285/.354/.384, 27 doubles, 12 triples, 3 HR, 97 runs, 35 RBIs, 61 of 73 stolen bases, 140 strikeouts, 97 OPS+

WAR: 4.2

UZR: 6.5

VORP: 32.6

Notes: The reason Bourn's season was an unparalleled success was this: in 2008, he posted an OPS+ of 57 and last season that went up to 97. 40 points in OPS+ is pretty amazing, but not totally surprising, since this was Bourn's age 26 season, which means he's entering his prime seasons. Still, his OPS was technically below league average and his number of doubles was a little low for someone as fast as Bourn. The other problem with Bourn is his strikeouts. Someone with his speed needs to have a better contact percentage than the 26-year old does. On the other hand, OPS+ is a misleading stat for someone with Bourn's skillset. Runs Created incorporates stolen base percentage, which is why Bourn finished third on the team in RC with 95, two behind Astros leader Carlos Lee. His 61 steals led the National League and his 12 triples tied him for second in the senior circuit with Stephen Drew. Add to that an excellent defensive season, by most metrics, and Bourn was immensely valuable.

Hunter Pence, RF

2009 Season Stats: 647 PA, .282/.346/.472, 26 doubles, 5 triples, 25 HR, 76 runs, 72 RBIs, 14 of 25 stolen bases, 109 strikeouts, 116 OPS+

WAR: 3.4

UZR: 6.0

VORP: 25.3

Notes: Pence put up a solid season. That's the best way to describe it. His OPS, his average, his stolen base numbers were all not overly compelling, nor were his 25 home runs. But, he was one of the more solid members of the lineup. You can pick nits with different parts of his game (he still doesn't walk a ton, he chases bad pitches, etc.), but for the most part he is who he is. Pence is a solid starter who will probably never become a superstar. He's not going to suddenly hit 40 home runs or post an OBP of .400. His batting average will probably not flirt with .350 and he most likely won't have 150 RBIs. He will show up, run hard and be a generally good player to have in your lineup. I personally could see Pence hitting in the two-hole and thriving there. With his speed, he'd be an asset, but he wouldn't get as many stolen base opportunities (which is a good thing). He'd also have a little pop to keep pitchers' honest. It's not a perfect thought, as his OBP would ideally need to be higher.

Jason Michaels, OF

2009 Season Stats: 152 PA, .237/.322/.430, 12 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 17 runs, 16 RBIs, 1 for 3 stolen bases, 38 strikeouts, 99 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: -12.4

VORP: 2.2

Notes: I'll tell you the truth. I was shocked to see how high Michaels slugging percentage was. I just had this perception that his signing was an out and out waste, largely because he seemed to never get hits, either off the bench or when he was in the game. The funny thing is after you looked at his numbers, that's exactly what he should have done. 2009 saw Michaels set a career high for pinch hits in a season with 12 and his pinch hit leverage index was 1.41, .07 points higher than his career index. That means the Astros trusted him in big situations consistently and directly in line with how he was used in his career. If anything was out of the norm, it was his BABiP of .301 was 17 points lower than his career line. The fact Michaels recorded his fewest plate appearances since 2003 could also have played into his number decrease. His Isolated Power was 50 points higher than his career average, which means we probably shouldn't expect the same kind of power next season and I really think the Astros would be better served using someone like Brian Bogusevic as the fourth outfielder.

Brian Bogusevic, OF

2009 Triple-A Season Stats: 581 PA, .271/.342/.365, 25 doubles, 3 triples, 6 HR, 68 runs, 53 RBIs, 22 of 25 stolen bases, 118 strikeouts,

Notes: Speaking of Bogey, this was his first full season as an outfielder and he did admirably well. At Triple-A, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Bogusevic put up fine numbers, but wasn't impressive. The Astros projected him to hit for more power than he's shown (remind you of anyone else? *cough*Johnson*cough*). His strikeouts are concerning and he doesn't walk enough to be an everyday starter, but his speed and baserunning acumen makes him intriguing. Defensively, Bogusevic got to a bunch of balls, recording 283 put outs to lead all Round Rock outfielders. He also had seven outfield assists, second only to Yordany Ramirez. I tracked the defensive numbers a little more in-depth for the first two months of the season and Bogusevic didn't have the most impressive arm. He made some plays but didn't hold runners as well as he could have and looked like he profiled better as a center fielder. As I said above, it makes sense to bring him up as a part-time player and let him learn how to hit in the majors. He's got nothing left to learn at Round Rock.

Yordany Ramirez, OF

2009 Triple-A Season Stats: 477 PA, .256/.275/.381, 22 doubles, 1 triple, 11 HR, 41 runs, 47 RBIs, 14 of 22 stolen bases, 64 strikeouts

Notes: Statistically, I really dislike this guy. Traditionally, though, I can see why the Astros liked him enough to sign him two years ago. Ramirez is a great defensive player and flashes big potential on offense. The problem is that the 24-year old has never been able to sustain that level of play, often falling in really damaging slumps. He's inconsistent on his stolen base success rate and I suspect he has better speed than instincts at this point. Ramirez hit all over the lineup last season for Round Rock before finally settling into the 7-8 spots. That's largely because of a genetic disorder that makes him physically allergic to taking a base on balls. Seriously, in eight minor league seasons, spanning 639 games and 2,420 plate appearances, Ramirez has only walked 78 times. That includes the 11 walks he managed in 2009. At this point, I don't ever see him being any more than an emergency contingency plan at Triple-A in case everyone else on the team gets hurt.

Drew Locke, OF

2009 Double-A Season Stats: 558 PA, .338/.389/.531, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 20 HR, 81 runs, 109 RBIs, 2 of 4 stolen bases, 84 strikeouts

Notes: Locke got a lot of burn this season because of his excellent numbers. He had an OPS of .920 at Corpus Christi, hitting 20 home runs and driving in 109 runs. Of course, the most telling statistic that never gets mentioned is that Locke was 26 years old last season. At that age, he should have destroyed Double-A hitting, even if it was the first time he'd been at that level after spending four seasons in the Dodgers organization. I'm not saying Locke isn't a good prospect at this point. It's just that we should probably temper our expectations somewhat. He's going to be 27 next year in Round Rock and may not see Houston until 2011, but with the injury to Josh Flores and the suspension of Mitch Einertson, Locke may be the most advanced outfielder the Astros have in their system (outside of the two mentioned above).

The 2009 Diamondbacks Season, Part II: Offense

Jim McLennan — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:00:21 -0000

by Gus Ruelas - AP

A photo of that near-mythical beast - a D-back trying to bunt for a hit. File this one of Upton alongside Bigfoot and the Loch Ness Monster.

View full size photo »

Thus far, Arizona's hitting is the clear winner in the SnakePit poll regarding the team's biggest problem this season, so it seems a good place to start our detailed examination of the 2009 season. While the offensive numbers as a whole compared to the rest of the league did improve marginally over the previous couple of campaigns, the Diamondbacks remained stuck near the bottom of the league, finishing the year 14th in team OPS+ [curiously, league average OPS+ this season was only 94 - I'd have expected it to be 100?]

After the jump, we're going to break down the numbers so we can go a bit further than yelling "You suck!" at our hitters. Which positions on the diamond were most responsible? What of our struggles against left-handed starters? How good were the Diamondbacks at "small ball" in 2009? These and ~~many~~ ~~several~~ a couple more questions, will be addressed below...

Who the heck is on first?
Which spots on the diamond proved the biggest black holes of production as far as the 2009 Diamondbacks were concerned? Here's a chart which compares our numbers against the National League averages. I've included runs and RBI from each position, though caution should be used with regard to these, as they are obviously both dependent on other factors, such as batting order and team-mates production. The last two columns are Arizona's OPS+ relative to the league split at that position, and where it ranked in the league.

	NL Average			Diamondbacks
Position	Batting line	R	RBI	Batting Line	R	RBI	sOPS+	Rank
Catcher	.255/.325/.385	62	71	.266/.345/.437	84	79	118	2nd
1st Base	.282/.373/.485	88	102	.228/.321/.396	72	88	70	16th
2nd Base	.268/.337/.406	85	69	.298/.372/.448	91	49	118	3rd
3rd Base	.261/.333/.419	82	84	.247/.336/.487	99	90	116	4th
Shortstop	.268/.327/.396	86	70	.265/.330/.417	80	73	107	5th
Left field	.271/.343/.439	88	82	.265/.317/.402	69	82	84	14th
Center field	.268/.339/.424	95	68	.219/.293/.379	80	61	79	15th
Right field	.264/.339/.442	83	86	.294/.358/.498	95	96	115	2nd
Pinch-hitter	.230/.320/.362	27	30	.190/.283/.345	29	41	88	13th
Pitcher	.138/.179/.176	17	16	.169/.194/.217	16	22	135	2nd

First, the good news. Our pitchers, catchers and right fielders were almost the best in the league at the plate, trailing only the Cubs, Braves and Phillies [thanks to Carlos Zambrano, Brian McCann and Jayson Werth respectively]. There was also solid production out of second base, third base and shortstop positions. SS may come as a bit of a surprise, given Drew's down year, especially against southpaws, but he was still better than average. However, I would not be averse to seeing him platooned with Tony Abreu next year, Abreu starting against LHP. Catcher, third base and right field should take care of themselves in 2010, and even if we have lost Felipe Lopez, Abreu and Ryan Roberts can fight it out for the everyday job.

Then there's the not-so good news. Three positions were basically gurgling vortexes of offensive suck: left-field, center-field and first-base. The last-named had the lowest OPS of any position for Arizona in 2009, which is quite a staggering feat, and despite our hitter-friendly park, finished 16th for BA, OBP and SLG. Part of this may be bad luck, with a BABIP of .274 (overall league average was .299; Chad Tracy's .234 was particularly low), but it has been an ongoing problem for the Diamondbacks. We haven't been ranked in the top half of the league for first-base offensive production since 2005. Getting anything like average from 1B in 2010 would be a big step forward.

The other two positions have the potential to improve, though it's by no means certain. In 2008, Conor Jackson returned an sOPS+ of 100 in left-field, and if he returns to full health, will likely be the regular starter there for Arizona next season. In center-field, what happens will depend on Chris Young. If he can maintain the form he showed after his return from Triple-A in late August, when he hit .263/.351/.508 in 31 games, then we'l be happy. If he doesn't... Well, there's always Gerardo Parra, and Young can platoon with him, getting the southpaw starts. And speaking of which...

Left behind.
The average NL team hit left-handed pitching at almost the same rate overall as they hit right-handers = .256/.330/.407 vs. .260/.331/.409 for an OPS only three points lower against southpaws. Perhaps surprisingly, this was reproduced by the 2009 Diamondbacks, whose OPS were almost identical: .741 vs. .742. I say "surprisingly," because of our team's woeful 17-30 record when facing a left-handed starter; I expected this to be reflected in a significantly-broader gap between the numbers, yet this wasn't so. However, on an individual level, there were some major differences.

On the left-handed batters' side, both Stephen Drew and Gerardo Parra struggled mightily against their sinister colleagues. Drew hit just .200 facing LHP, while Gerardo Parra's power evaporated completely - he is still trying to get his first extra-base career hit off a southpaw, after exactly one hundred at-bats. While the sample-size is pretty small as yet, Brandon Allen is also in the same boat: they carved him up to the tune of 2-for-22 with eleven strikeouts this season. If those three want to be everyday players in 2010, they're going to have to learn to deal with lefties.

On the other hand - literally - there doesn't seem to be much particular problem with right-handed pitching; probably due to the greater volume of at-bats, most players' numbers are close to their overall totals. Chris Young, Eric Byrnes and Conor Jackson had the lowest OPS of our position players there, not exactly something for which we'll be running to stop the presses.

Lords of the fly-balls
The Diamondbacks were one of the most fly-ball prone offenses in the league, sporting a ground-out/air-out ratio of 0.75, compared to a league average of 1.11. Leading the air assault was Chris Young, whose ratio was all the way down at 0.45 - only one other batter in the entire league with over 350 PAs was under 0.60 [Clint Barmes at 0.53]. As we all know, Young had a particularly problem getting the ball out of the infield; 28% of his fly-balls did not trouble the outfielders. That was the most among any NL batter with 250+ PAs; Eric Byrnes came fifth in the same category, at a 24% rate.

One area that definitely seems to present room for improvement is infield hits. There's no doubting that the team has a lot of speed, thanks in part to its youth, but this was not apparently translated into a lot of hits hustled out along the first-base line. We had a league-worst total of 127 there; that's 26 fewer than league average. If we'd got those "missing" hits, our overall BA would have ended up one tick short of the league average. Upton led the team by some way, on 25; Gerardo Parra was next on 14, with Felipe Lopez getting a dozen. Upton's number was good for sixth among right-handed NL batters [LHB have an advantage, being a couple of steps closer to first-base], but I feel some of our other players could be doing better.

This is especially true with bunt hits, where the Diamondbacks managed a total of just ten all season - there were five players in the league who had more than that. In Upton and Reynolds, we have two players who possess a great combination of power and speed - the former makes the infield play back, making them vulnerable to a quick bunt. Do that a few times, and they'll be forced to play in, making it easier to drive the ball past them. Yet there's something not quite right when Miguel Montero and Augie Ojeda both have as many bunt hits as Upton (two), and more than Reynolds (one).

Also in 'small ball,' the team was dead last in the league for successful sacrifice bunts. This is something which would normally please me - I'm rarely a fan of surrendering outs - except that we were not last in sacrifice attempts. Our success rate was a woeful 66%; no other team in the league came in below 70%. While we're talking a small sample size, particular offenders were Chris Young, Trent Oeltjen and Justin Upton who ended 2009 a combined 5-for-13 in sacrifice attempts, compared to a league average 73% success-rate. Maybe they can take lessons from Dan Haren: he was a perfect 9-for-9, with only four NL players having more attempts and 100% success.

Baseball as a non-contact sport
The Diamondbacks led the league for not making contact with the ball: when they swung at a pitch - 23% of the time they came up empty. The absence of Conor Jackson, who had the team's lowest rate in 2008 (14%), hurt team numbers overall. You probably won't be surprised to find out who supplied much of the Sedona Red breeze this year: Mark Reynolds, who didn't make contact on 39% of swings. Ryan Howard (34%) was the sole other batter in the NL with 250+ PAs to have a miss-rate beyond 30%. Justin Upton and Chris Young were also above average, whiffing 28% of the time.

Interestingly, it doesn't seem to be a poor eye that's the problem. Arizona hitters swung at pitches out of the zone 25.1% of the time, hardly above the league median of 24.5%. They were simply below average at getting wood on horsehide, particularly on pitches in the zone. Again, Reynolds was in a class of his own: he missed 29.1% of the time, when swinging at strikes - the next-highest miss rate there in the National League was Brad Hawpe, down at 22.5%. On the other end of the spectrum, Stephen Drew didn't miss often, particularly at strikes. He made contact 92.9% of the time, though was just pipped by Augie Ojeda's 93.0% figure.

Poll

What position are you most concerned about for 2010?

First base

51 votes

Second base

35 votes

Left field

14 votes

Center field

26 votes

126 votes | Poll has closed