SB Nation - David Huff

Game 156: Cleveland 9, Baltimore 0

Ryan — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 20:43:53 -0000

More photos » by DAVID RICHARD - AP

David Huff turned in his best outing as a pro, throwing eight shutout innings.

If this was David Huff's last start, he ended his rookie season on a high note. In fact, I think this start might be the best non-Lee start of the season. Huff pitched eight shutout innings, allowing just 5 hits and 2 walks and striking out 5. Judging by his last five starts, it seems like he's made adjustments to the league, and although he'll have to compete for a rotation spot next spring, there's a very good chance that he'll remain with the big-league club in 2010.

The Indians made it easy on Huff by scoring six runs in the first inning. Asdrubal Cabrera (who would collect four hits on the day) drove home two on a double, Andy Marte drove another one in with a single, and Kelly Shoppach capped things off with a three-run homer. I still maintain that, even though Lou Marson has done well in his September audition, it would behoove the Indians to keep Shoppach around another season. Let Shoppach and Marson share time early in the season, and when Carlos Santana is ready, then deal Shoppach away.

Matt LaPorta hit his seventh home run in 158 at-bats today, and has brought his batting line up to (going into today) a fairly respectable .272/.312/.456. I think it's a given that he's going to be in the lineup Opening Day, though the question still remains what position he'll be playing.

Next Up: Chicago comes to town. Danks vs. Laffey, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
David Huff	.123	Shin-Soo Choo	-.030
Kelly Shoppach	.122	Jhonny Peralta	-.012
Asdrubal Cabrera	.104	Matt LaPorta	-.005

Fire Everyone! - The Farm System

APV — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 21:28:49 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Travis Hafner, soliciting coaching advice from outside the organization

Browse more photos »

This is the eighth installment in a 12-part series.

Part of the Tribe's failure this year can be blamed on the reality that when players were failing to perform in April and May (and there were many), no one was there in Akron or Columbus to step up and provide at least temporary relief. When Fausto Carmona was busy allowing 4+ runs in 10 of his first 12 starts, who was there to step up? Sure, David Huff was there to step in and promptly allow 13 earned runs in his first 6 innings of pro ball, but who was there behind him? And behind that guy? And when the bullpen was busy reading up on seppuku rather than "how to record a major league out" for the first two months, was there really no one better than Matt Herges and Greg Aquino available to fill the holes? Mark Shapiro has said nothing more frequently than the need for depth - the need to prepare for individual failures (which are inevitable) and insure against collective failures. So where was the depth when it was needed to keep the season alive?

One explanation is that it was a failure to acquire the right talent. This is a well hashed argument, and one which might have some validity. There is another possibility, however, that perhaps it is not that we have failed to acquire the right talent, but instead failed to develop the talent we have properly. Perhaps our developmental system, again one of Shapiro's trademarks on the organization has failed. Shapiro has been lauded for installing a system based on combining traditional scouting data with rigorous quantitative assessment and emphasizing consistency throughout the system. Players are supposed to enter into the organization and hear the same things at every level. Maybe some have been hearing the wrong things.

Trying to assess how good a developmental staff the Indians have is probably going to be a failed effort on my part. To really do it right, you would have to compare how the Indians fare relative to other organizations. The best hitters get out 60% of the time. Their greatness is only visible when assessed against everyone else, who get out 69% of the time. The success rate for prospects is much lower than either of the numbers. I don't have time for a thorough comparative analysis, sadly. But we can look internally at what the Tribe has done.

I consider the goal of the developmental staff to accomplish two things:

A good system should help players achieve the potential they were viewed to have when they were drafted/signed (with obvious injury caveats).
A great system should strive to raise the ceiling of their players, and strive to turn them into better players than other teams thought they could be.

How do they do this - I have no idea. But I would like to think they identify weaknesses in a player's game and seek to improve on them. Have the Indians done that? Here are some significant minor leaguers, either assessed by performance, draft or reputation, and how they've progressed (or regressed) while in the Indians system.

2003

Michael Aubrey - Injuries make his development impossible to assess

Brad Snyder - I think Snyder's failures are viewed as a contact problem. I think it is more that he didn't hit for enough power given his high strikeout rate. Here are his K/BB rates from A+, to AA, and two years in Buffalo - 2.5, 2.5, 3, +4...that's not good.

Adam Miller - see Michael Aubrey

Javi Herrera - college defensive catcher (and 3rd round pick), never learned to hit at AA

Ryan Garko - Seems like a success story. He's never developed a lot of power, but aside from his senior year at Stanford he never had a lot of power.

Juan Valdes - Injuries (too much coffee, no doubt)

Kevin Kouzmanoff - Kouz is a developmental success for Cleveland, a guy who raised his ceiling to the point of being trade worthy for future superstar Josh Barfield

Aaron Laffey - Big developmental success. While he's always gotten groundballs in bunches, his improving K-numbers throughout his minor league career attest to his improved secondary stuff, particularly his slider.

2004

Jeremy Sowers - I think it is hard to argue Sowers as a developmental failure. He has consistently dominated the minors. The translation to the big league level is not something I feel justified in blaming the minor league staff entirely for. An argument could be made that more of an effort should have been extended to improve his fastball velocity, but that is tough without incurring all sorts of other mechanical issues.

Justin Hoyman - never got started

Scott Lewis - I think a success story from a developmental perspective. Always did well, but was always described as likely having trouble at the next level. He kept doing well at the next level, up until his injury derailment in the majors.

Chuck Lofgren - Hard to know exactly what has happened or who is to blame for Lofgren, but losing the ability to throw strikes is something I'm happy to assign partial blame to the staff.

Mike Butia - Bad pick

Chris Gimenez - The Tribe turned this 19th round pick into a guy who can play multiple positions including catcher. He's not great, but that's not a bad job for a guy not many people probably thought much of.

Carlton Smith - Another guy who the Indians are trying to turn into something useful. They've managed to take his naturally sinking stuff and turn him into an extreme groundballer out of the pen in Akron this year. I say small victory.

Wyatt Toregas - selected in the 24th round, Wyatt's performance has been up and down, but at various points they've managed to get his plate discipline and/or power up to levels that made his appearance on the big league team this year not surprising. Success.

Tony Sipp - he was a late round flyer who I think we're all glad signed. A success obviously, but it is a little troubling that Sipp's control never showed any improvement.

2005

Trevor Crowe - After looking like he was nothing in 2007 in Akron, he did rebound more towards a reasonably projection given his college performance. Not worth a first round pick, but not the developmental staff's fault.

John Drennen - Haven't been able to put together a solid approach at the plate for Drennen. It's either mediocre power with huge K-rates, or zero power with mediocre plate discipline.

Stephen Head - they really should have worked on his mustache more, or tried to put together a coherent set of skills

Nick Weglarz - projectable big guy from Ontario with limited baseball experience turned into a top prospect...Yes!

Jensen Lewis - Again, from the minor league side of things, this looks like a success

Jordan Brown - Following his 2007 season in Akron, it looked like all he needed to do was add a little power and he'd be a good guy at the plate. Instead he fell apart, losing power, discipline and contact skills. He has rebounded a lot this year, but hasn't recovered his discipline at the plate and given his defensive liabilities, isn't viewed as part of the future. In terms of development, I think Brown is probably a draw.

Kevin Dixon, Joe Ness, James Deters - These three consecutive picks from 2005 all reached Akron and promptly had their careers end, I think we can assign a little failure.

Ryan Edell - Edell, the next pick in that draft, actually made it past Akron this year. Edell is not anything special, but he has followed an advance and struggle, then come back and improve trajectory to the point where he is a depth rotation option for next season. I say success from the development perspective.

Roman Pena - Toolsy, but failed to learn how to not strike out

Neil Wagner - Once viewed as a relief prospect sleeper, Wagner's control has gotten worse as he has moved through the system

2006

David Huff - similar story to Jeremy Sowers. He really looked like he was ready in 2008, but in 2009 his stuff has been lacking. I have a hard time saying this is a failure of the minor league development staff, though.

Steven Wright - he's not a guy we talk much about, but he has slowly and steadily progressed through the system and will likely be a major part of the Columbus bullpen next year. Not a glowing victory, but not a developmental failure.

Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez has dealt with some injuries, but this seems like a failure. He was highly thought of and got off to a nice pro start in 2007.

Wes Hodges - Again injuries have played a role, but Hodges' power and discipline have deteriorated at each level to the point where now he is a deserved after thought.

Matt McBride - Here I largely question the developmental choices the organization has made. McBride was at catcher, but got moved to corner outfield. He had enough of a projectable bat to be a major league catcher, but it would have and will take a minor miracle to make him a serviceable outfielder. I say development fail.

Adam Davis - He got worse each of his final two seasons at Florida, so I don't blame Cleveland for him not being any good, just for drafting him.

Ryan Morris - A big high-school lefty who the Indians have been unable to teach how to throw strikes

Jared Goedert - Apart from a now legendary 46 game stretch in Lake County, he is 9th round organizational fodder

Paolo Espino - Espino has been moved back and forth from rotation to bullpen, but his improved control this season was a positive step forward for him. I say one for the plus column.

Josh Tomlin - a 19th round pick, Tomlin has been steady in his performance across levels, last season as a stalwart in Akron's pitching staff, to the point of being an interesting guy. Development win.

Vinnie Pestano - Enough marginal improvement in his BB-rate to call this a minor victory.

Chris Nash - Big and raw high school firstbaseman, the Indians have never been able to translate his strength into power or any kind of plate performance. Fail.

Ryan Miller - late round flier who showed signs of life for Lake County in 2008, totally blew up in 2009.

Others

Jon Meloan - not drafted, but clearly a developmental failure. Were never able to right his once promising ship.

Asdrubal Cabrera - huge victory. Cabrera was a hugely underrated guy when we acquired him, but he has been able to translate that potential into actual performance.

Fausto Carmona - huge victory....turned huge failure? But this also involves the major league staff.

Frank Herrmann - Transition to bullpen was successful this season and might prove to be a very smart developmental move. That said, he didn't actually improve any of his numbers in the process.

Hector Rondon - Definitely looks like a victory in progress, has been getting better as he has advanced (at least until the final month of this season).

Rafael Perez - Another victory in terms of his minor league performance. Was a borderline starter turned into a momentarily great reliever.

Jeanmar Gomez - Another seeming victory in progress. His stuff has become more effective as he has moved through the system.

Josh Judy - 34th round 2007 pick, his numbers have also shown steady progress. Could warrant a bullpen look in 2010.

Carlos Rivero - was looking good, but had a definite set back this season in his AA debut

Summary

There are lots of guys I have no doubt missed, and I have intentionally left most of the guys acquired from 2007-present out, because for most of them development is still a work in progress. Generally, I think the Indians developmental system has been adequate, if not extraordinary. We have had pitching successes (Aaron Laffey) and failures (Jon Meloan), hitting successes (Asdrubal Cabrera) and failures (Brad Snyder), college successes (Ryan Garko) and college failures (Wes Hodges), high school successes (Nick Weglarz) and high school failures (Chuck Lofgren). Again, a real study would try to assess this quantitatively and comaratively, but I don't have time for that.

I will say the Indians success with pitchers have seemingly been with developing downward movement on their fastball and/or the development of a slider in particular as an effective secondary pitch. There aren't a ton of changeup success stories in the system, or guys who have developed great power fastballs.

At the plate, it is my sense that certain players who have struggled have gone back and forth between trying to achieve their power potential, while also maintaining a reasonable plate approach. Beau Mills seems to be a case of this in progress, where last season he was showing some signs of actually improving in both areas (following a half-season debut with good power and bad discipline), only to come crashing down in many ways this season. I always find it disappointing when guys who showed plus defensive skills, like Brad Snyder, could not ever quite work it out at the plate enough to get a shot at the major league level. Fire everyone! - mabe. But I'd probably rather see an easing of the constraints on the system. Not an abandonment of the over-arching organizational philosophy on player development, but an openness to the reality that Cleveland is not the greatest organization on the planet and does not have all of the answers.

Just about any individual performance success story or failure can be viewed either as a result of the player's contribution or that of the coaches - so it is impossible to really get at the latter. Only systematic problems give reasonable evidence of organizational failings in this regard. By and large I don't think the Indians system has those. I question sometimes whether the one size fits all approach to development and advancement works for everyone, but some of the player development decisions made this year (Abner Abreu, Lonnie Chisenhall, Zach Putnam) suggest a more flexible approach on behalf of the front office. The bottom line is that I think the Indians do a good job of getting players to perform to the level that is expected of them. There are not that many examples of guys turning into something more than was ever thought possible, but I would guess these are rare in every organization. There are also not a lot of total failures which don't have some major injury component to them. Fire everyone! - maybe. But I'd probably rather just see more humility in the current organizational philosophy towards development. The Indians are not the greatest organization on the planet and do not know the answers to every (or these days any) question. Allowing a little flexibility and opening the channels of communication regarding development up to a few more smart voices might not be a bad idea.

Game 148: Athletics 2, Indians 1

Ryan — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 05:02:01 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Fire Everyone in This Picture!

Browse more photos »

This doesn't excuse the Indians' play one iota, but C.B. Bucknor is a joke. He's been a joke for a long time, and I have no idea how he's still in the majors. His strike zone was consistently ludicrous tonight, remaining so until the last batter of the game, when he called out Kelly Shoppach on a pitch nowhere close to the strike zone. I just hope, for the sake of teams still in the race, that he isn't behind the plate for a meaningful game between now and the end of the season.

In contrast to last season's strong finish, this year's club is tanking in September. Grady Sizemore is out of the action, but the rest of the regulars are all healthy and available. All of them, except Andy Marte, who is losing playing time to Trevor Crowe and Niuman Romero, among others. The offense has gone to sleep, the starters have been mostly hideous, and the bullpen has pitched in an implosion or two this month. 21-year-old Brett Anderson took advantage of the anemic offense, allowing 4 hits and a walk in six inning, and striking out 10 Indians.

Matt LaPorta prevented yet another shutout by doubling home the first run of the game in the ninth inning. Shin-Soo Choo prevented another run by nabbing a sure home run earlier in the game.

Next Up: Sowers vs. Gonzalez, 4:05 PM (No TV)

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Michael Brantley	.040	Jamey Carroll	-.148
David Huff	.032	Jhonny Peralta	-.147
Jess Todd	.025	Trevor Crowe	-.102

Fire Everyone! - John Mirabelli and the scouts

TribeJay — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Try to top those 64 K's, Huff!

Browse more photos »

This is the fifth installment in a 12-part series.

The Cleveland Indians hired John Mirabelli as Director of Scouting in the fall of 1999. Mirabelli was promoted to Assistant General Manager/ Director of Scouting prior to the 2002 season and signed a contract extension in May 2007 that takes him through 2010. Later that year he took on an "expanded role in the procurement of amateur and professional talent, both in the United States and abroad" while Brad Grant assumed responsibility for overseeing all elements of the amateur draft. The Indians have had many young players succeed during this time, though many have been plucked from other organizations. After the disasters of the previous two years, is it time to fire John Mirabelli and the scouts?

If you're looking for an exhaustive analysis on how the Indians have drafted compared to other teams, or how they've fared with international signings, you'll need to look elsewhere on this site or in the Annual published last spring. Keep in mind the goal of this series - holding people accountable, regardless if it is actually their fault ("and even if it isn't, it's probably time to fire somebody anyway.").

Firing Mirabelli is probably not a novel idea to LGT readers. Some may say he hasn't had successful drafts, and others may say he hasn't drafted "high-ceiling" guys. Or that he hasn't signed an impact player from the Pacific Rim. Or that he speaks French, but not in Russian. In any event, I'm going to focus on a few "fireable offenses."

By and large, difference-making talent originally signed by the Indians does not exist on the current roster.

Admittedly, my mostly uninformed opinion from a year ago was that the Indians amateur drafts have been awful. After getting some perspective from within this site, I've realized that "awful" is an overstatement, and when compared to other teams (particularly in the AL Central), it doesn't look bad at all. Also, the amateur draft is just one way to add players to the organization. And no, we're not going to debate selecting "high-ceiling players" for the 10 billionth time, or even the 11millionth time.

And in Mirabelli's defense, the Indians have only selected in the Top 10 once since 1992. Budget constraints have certainly impacted their ability to select certain players. But in the end, Cleveland's highest single-season slugging percentage of players signed after Mirabelli was hired belongs to Ryan Garko, who slugged .483 in 2007. And of pitchers signed in the Mirabelli era, the highest single-season strikeout total by a Cleveland starter outside of Fausto Carmona belongs to fireballer Jeremy Sowers, with 64 in 2008 (though David Huff is making a charge this year). Screw it, these are fireable offenses!

And the trading for several power arms (C. Perez, Knapp, Masterson, and Hagadone) this year was an effort to stock pitching depth, but it may as well been an admission of their inability to find these arms in other ways. Again, the aforementioned lack of high draft picks and budget constraints have hampered the Indians in this pursuit, but remember, we're looking for accountability here.

Signing David Dellucci

Sure, scouts didn't have the final say on this signing. They may have had little, or even no input at all. But in the spirit of Fire Everyone!, we're going to hold the scouting department accountable for not talking Mark Shapiro out of this one. Outside of one good month, one great quote, and a good beard, there's not much else to take from this signing. Sure, he tore his hamstring from the bone in 2007, but he wasn't doing anything before then either. Was this a critical error that set the franchise back? No. But it was a swing and a miss.

Being unable to acquire talented minor-leaguers from other organizations

OK, just making sure you're paying attention. If we're going to blame them for the Dellucci signing, we'll have to give them credit for this, to the extent he and his scouts were involved. It's not that it's unimportant. However, I suppose any number of us could have looked over the Dodgers' system and asked, "What about that Santana guy?"

Signing Jose Ozoria Wally Bryan

Sure, it isn't the first time this has happened to a major league club. The Indians are not alone. It also may be that the Indians did everything possible to avoid this. However, in Andrew's piece on firing Larry Dolan, much of the discussion in the comments section centered on small market teams needing to become unique or unconventional in their methods. I'll submit that in signing players who are actually older than they say they are, the Indians should strive to be unconventional and make sure this doesn't happen.

It's not an exorbitant amount, but if you're going to spend $575,000 on signing an international free agent, you better make sure his ceiling is Asdrubal Cabrera and not Niuman Romero. Perhaps we'll see ~~young~~ Mr. Bryan get a cup of coffee at first base in September 2014, thereby ending Andy Marte's consecutive game streak at 788.

That wraps it up. What about Brad Grant, you say? Well, let's give him a pass. We'll keep around anyone who uses their first pick on a player named Lonnie Chisenhall, especially if that player hits .276/.346/.492 at the age of 20 in High-A in their first full season.

Should Mirabelli be fired? Did the promotion of Brad Grant mean that Mirabelli was already "fired?" Is Mirabelli now in a role that better suits him? Or is saying "It hasn't been as bad as you think" good enough when you summarize the results of someone's performance in a significant role?

Fire Everyone! - Carl Willis

Jay — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 16:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

"Basically, Justersonster, you only get to be good for one year as long as I'm your coach. So which year is it going to be?"

Browse more photos »

This is the third installment in a 12-part series.

The case is simple: Our pitching stinks, fire the pitching coach.

While we've seen consistently good-to-great lineups for the past four years or so, our rotation has gone from a wonderfully deep collection of quality pitchers to an utter wasteland. As for our bullpens, the words "historically bad" have been used — without hyperbole — to describe four of the last six.

In fairness to Willis, a recap is in order of some truly great pitching Indians fans have seen under his watch:

CC Sabathia (2003), Jake Westbrook (2004) and Cliff Lee (2005) all emerged as young quality starters in Willis' first three seasons with the club.
Veterans Brian Anderson (2003) and Scott Elarton (2004) had solid bounce-back seasons.
Injury-plagued Kevin Millwood (2005) won the AL ERA title in his only season with Willis, and Carl Pavano (2009) returned from a four-year hiatus to become an above-average starter.
Rafael Betancourt emerged as one of the few consistently good middle relievers in the game.
The 2005 staff led the league in ERA and allowed just 3.96 runs per game. The club essentially made it through the season using only five starters, and it was essentially just as steady and stable in 2006.
The 2005 bullpen in particular led the league in ERA and WHIP by significant margins and might have been the best in club history.
Sabathia emerged as a true ace late in the 2005 season, producing Cy Young-caliber seasons in 2007 and 2008.
Fausto Carmona (2007) produced a Cy Young-caliber season while barely more than a rookie.
Cliff Lee (2008) produced a dominant, historic season, including a unanimous Cy Young award, and one of the most remarkable comeback stories the game has ever seen.

It is an impressive list of accomplishments — which just makes it all the more amazing that there's a good case for firing the guy. On a macro level, the bullpen has been the runaway leading culprit in the trademark early-season collapses of the Wedge era. If it weren't for those four horrendous bullpens, in fact, there likely would never have been any talk whatsoever about Wedge's teams starting slow.

Despite many seemingly fine internal candidates, he has never been able to cultivate a closer. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera withered away to nothing, and Jensen Lewis seems to be following not far behind them. A long list of pitchers have arrived in Cleveland ready to compete and even dominate — Carmona, Davis, Cabrera, Sowers, Perez, Lewis — and then, at some point before they hit the two-year mark, they just lose it. Too many of the Indians' best young pitchers seem to forget how to pitch completely, or they lose the ability to do what made them successful. And when they forget, Willis seems utterly unable to remind them.

Time after time, we see pitchers shipped down to the minors to reconstruct their games. This is in part a practical necessity, but at some point the question must be asked: Isn't the pitching coach supposed to help the pitchers, you know, pitch better?

You may not be surprised to learn that, at least from an outside perspective, Willis' minor league résumé is almost vanishingly thin. Looking at the rosters for 1997 Watertown, 1998 Burlington and 1999 Columbus (Ga.), there is an amazing lack of major league talent. Sabathia made eight starts for those clubs as he breezed through the minors, and Tim Drew and Ryan Drese each made a few starts for them. But as for the pitchers who spent significant time with Willis in the low minors, however, not a single one ever had a significant big-league career. The 2000 Aeros allow Willis to claim some credit for Danys Baez's development, and he did coach Zach Day for eight starts. Think about that: eight starts with Zach Day is Willis' second most impressive work product for those four seasons in the minors.

Willis moved up to Buffalo with Wedge for the 2001 and 2002 seasons, and he moved up to Cleveland with Wedge in 2003. Naturally, Willis couldn't help but work with future major leaguers once he was working in Triple-A, but even so, the list is pretty thin. He had 12 starts with then-prospect Westbrook and another eight with Lee. Other than that, Willis' minor league highlights are led by names like Tim Drew, Mike Bacsik and Sean DePaula.

In fairness, it was this exact, astonishing dearth of talent that led the Indians to blow up the team in 2002, and in no way am I suggesting that it's Willis' fault that there was so little talent there to work with. Still, after six years in the minors, you would hope that there would be more tangible things to point to — some pitcher, anyone, who developed into a good major leaguer, largely under Willis' tutelage — but that pitcher doesn't seem to exist. It seems that Willis owes his presence in the majors largely if not entirely to the judgment of Eric Wedge, and one shudders to consider what qualities Willis had that Wedge felt made him the best guy to be the Indians pitching coach. Is Carl Willis a grinder? Was Wedge hoping that Willis would "run into one?" Is he, in fact, the Ryan Garko of pitching coaches?

Even Willis' accomplishments fade under closer inspection. Sabathia is a unique and protean talent who arrived as a reasonably effective starting pitcher in the majors at the age of 20. You would expect an exceptional young talent like him to progress somewhat in his first few years, to have occasional setbacks, and eventually to emerge as one of the game's top pitchers. Willis deserves credit for helping Sabathia fulfill his potential, but it did take six years for it to happen, and when they started their fourth season together in 2006, it still hadn't happened. Durability aside, it would be a stretch to say that Sabathia exceeded expectations once Willis arrived.

Lee presents a similar mixed bag, as a prospect whose ceiling was always seen as a number-one starter. Again, the natural tendency is to credit Willis for some portion of Lee's miraculous rise from the gutter in 2008. The problem comes when you ask, who was Lee's pitching coach when his career careened off into that gutter in the first place? Who was his coach when his very fine 2005 season turned into a thoroughly mediocre 2006, followed by 2007, when Lee fell entirely off the depth chart? Did the Indians, on balance, get as much out of Lee as was expected, from 2005 through 2008? Even if the answer is "yes," Willis' work with Lee doesn't seem to be an overwhelming positive on the balance sheet.

And then there's the Boys of 2007: Carmona, Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez. Carmona's odd odyssey in 2006 is well documented, but he seemed to arrive in 2007 as an Instant Ace. I'd like to give Willis some credit for this, but when a veteran slugger says Carmona's power sinker is like a bad hangover, it's not clear how much credit can be given to coaching. Lewis and Perez each arrived mid-season in 2007, propelled by months of dominance in the high minors, and they kept right on going, dominating AL hitters all the way down the stretch. Lewis has struggled to pitch consistently in 2008 and 2009. Perez was a solid reliever in 2008 and has been arguably the worst reliever in the major leagues this season. Both relievers collapsed despite not having any notable injury problems. As for Carmona, he may well be the single most brutally disappointing player Indians fans have followed this decade.

Among the three pitchers, these three facts seem consistent:

They arrived and performed at the very high level portended by their track records.
Willis played no significant role in their development as prospects.
They have all totally collapsed since their first full seasons in the majors.

Without breakout performances from Perez and Lewis in 2007, we'd be talking about four historically awful bullpens in four consecutive seasons, rather than in just three seasons out of the last four. Following the 2006 debacle, the Indians spent relatively heavily on bullpen options, bringing in Hernandez, Fultz, and Borowski for 2007. Masa Kobayashi was brought in to fortify what was viewed as promising core in 2008, which turned into another debacle. Topping prior efforts, the Indians acquired Kerry Wood and Joe Smith for 2009 — once again hoping to bolster a solid core of Betancourt, Perez and Lewis — and the Triple-A club was stocked with solid minor league free agents and a few dominating prospects, led by Tony Sipp. Yet once again, the bullpen crumbled completely and tanked the season early.

Reliever performances are maddeningly hard to project — functionally impossible in fact — but it should be clear at this point that small samples alone cannot explain the wild swings in performance for pitchers like Lewis and Perez. No scout would claim they are the same pitchers they were in 2007, or that Carmona is. At one point, they knew how to pitch successfully, and now, they don't. One wonders if within the next few years, their careers will become just as insubstantial as those who came before them, like Davis and Cabrera.

If the bullpen is any significant part of Willis' responsibilities, then his performance must be considered a failure at this point. The best we can say for the man's tenure with the Indians is that for the most elite pitching talent, in their prime, he has helped them to achieve their potential, and he has helped a few rehabbed retreads put together some nice make-good seasons. Both of these types of contributions have been very useful to the club. For pitchers who were not already established, however, and not elite talents coming out of the minors, the overall pitching productivity under Willis has been simply abysmal.

One more factor worth considering is the availability of Leo Mazzone, the well-known pitching coach for the 1990s Atlanta Braves. In addition to coaching three pitchers to six Cy Young awards, Mazzone is also the subject of a comparative statistical study that showed that pitchers coached by him tended to lower their ERA by an average of half a run. Neither of these facts are conclusive as to Mazzone's true ability, but then, nothing ever is when it comes to coaches. We can't know for sure how much good or harm Willis has done, or how much of the Braves' immense pitching success was owed to Mazzone. Clubs have to make decisions in the absence of real certainty, with coaches just as much as players.

It may seem callous (and even "un-Shapiro") to kick Willis to the curb just because someone better is available. Maybe it is callous. It's also the kind of thing that organizations do when they're serious about competing. We could badly use a coach with a knack for turning fringy pitchers into decent major league starters and relievers — and by "we" I mean "Jeremy Sowers and David Huff." Mazzone has shown that knack, and Willis hasn't. Under the current leadership, if the Indians have the worst bullpen in the majors next season, not one person will be able to claim surprise. Maybe Willis has done nothing to cause those disasters, but he certainly hasn't prevented them. Whatever his accomplishments here, it's time to fire the pitching coach.

Game 142: Indians 13, Royals 6

Ryan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 04:06:03 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Security was tight tonight, as this squirrel found out the hard way.

Browse more photos »

We're now headlong into baseball's garbage time - especially when a non-playoff team comes to town - and wins and losses don't mean a whole lot, but it was nice to see to see the individual performances that lead to tonight's blowout win. David Huff went six innings, and seemed much more in control of things than earlier in the season. The Royals sent out to the mound a panoply of bad pitchers, and the Indians did what they were supposed to do, knocking out 17 hits (eight of them for extra bases) and scoring 13 runs.

Foremost among the contributors to this offensive outburst was Michael Brantley, who went 4-for-5 on the evening. His career-beginning hitting streak ended at eight the night before, so he made up for the hitless night tonight. Five of his teammates also had multiple hits, including Jamey Carroll (3-5, 2 2B), and Asdrubal Cabrera (2-4, 2 2B, BB). Even the already infamous Niuman Romero got his first major-league hit tonight.

Even though the first two paragraphs hint at a blowout from the beginning, it wasn't so. The Royals lead 3-2 after the top of the fifth, and the Indians really broke the game open in the seventh, when they scored six runs off two Royals relievers, both of whom were September callups.

Next Up: Davies vs. Carrasco, 1:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Shin-Soo Choo	.243	Chris Gimenez	-.069
Jhonny Peralta	.167	Travis Hafner	-.063
Jamey Carroll	.139	David Huff	-.057

Game 136: Indians 3, Twins 1

Ryan — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:10:21 -0000

by Tony Dejak - AP

David Huff went seven strong innings, long enough for his teammates to take the lead.

View full size photo »

The Indians skipped David Huff's last turn in the rotation in order to keep his innings down, since Huff was on track to blow by his 2008 innings total. The rest apparently helped, for Huff pitched of his best games as a pro, allowing just an earned run in seven innings on six base runners (2 hits, 4 walks). This was David's fourth start against the Twins this season, so his success certainly wasn't due to unfamiliarity.

Meanwhile, the Indians face Nick Blackburn for their fourth time this season, and while they didn't have the kind of success against him they had previously, they did take the lead in the seventh while he was still on the mound. Michael Brantley pushed across the go-ahead run with his second single of the game. Brantley has gotten a hit in each of his first six games as a pro.

Tony Sipp and Kerry Wood finished things up with two scoreless innings between them. Sipp has given up one earned run since August 1st, and Wood, although he's had very few save opportunities since the beginning of August, he hasn't blown any of them. The bullpen, which had been a disaster, is now one of the stronger parts of this team.

Next Up: Hunter vs. Carrasco, 6:05 PM

The upload blew up, so here's a link to the graph.

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
David Huff	.285	Shin-Soo Choo	-.130
Michael Brantley	.212	Matt LaPorta	-.126
Asdrubal Cabrera	.111	Andy Marte	-.083

Indians Beat Twins: A British Perspective

The Wife — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:06:39 -0000

by Tony Dejak - AP

3 months ago: Minnesota Twins first baseman Michael Cuddyer (5) tags Cleveland Indians' Michael Brantley in a rundown in the seventh inning of a baseball game, Sunday, Sept. 6, 2009, in Cleveland. Cuddyer dropped the ball and Brantley was safe at second base. (AP Photo/Tony Dejak)

View full size photo »

Since meeting Jesse four years ago, I have found myself dragged further and further into the world of baseball. To be honest, I don't really understand most of it and am definitely a reluctant learner.

Jesse's latest plan to get me interested is to allow me to write his game recap. I'm not really sure if he wanted to get me more interested, see how much I've already learnt or just give everyone a laugh at my lack of understanding. Either way, I accepted the challenge and the result is this, rather disjointed and uninformative game recap! Enjoy!

1st Inning:

Joe Mauer – Yay! I get excited everytime I see Joe Mauer, purely for the reason that he’s the only Twin I recognise.

Now they’re talking about this great pitch that Huff will need to use to beat the left handers…. To me it looks just the same as all the other pitches – even when they slow it down and explain it – I obviously have a lot to learn.

Now Joe’s out. This makes me sad.

So now Twins will be pitching (in England we would call this bowling, pitching is what you do to a tent).

Why do these men wiggle their leg before throwing the ball? I am yet to understand how this wiggle helps with their pitching. Though at the moment it seems to be working for Blackburn.

Nick Punto threw a guy out… (you’re probably seeing by now that this report will not be very technical).

OUCH – I think that guy just broke his toe. Looks painful! I don’t know who it is, his name isn’t on his shirt. If it helps, he’s number 13.

Kubel just caught someone out. I should be pleased but at the moment I’m more interested by the grass – I still don’t really understand how they get those stripes in the grass. It looks pretty but I can’t ever manage to get the grass in my garden to look stripey. This makes me sad again. Let’s hope the second inning cheers me up (it would help if something actually happens).

2nd Inning:

Number 58 is pitching (why don’t they have the names on their shirts? It’s very inconsiderate. Stupid Cleveland!)

I have come to the conclusion that Twins need to do some intensive sprint training… If they could just get to first base without getting out I’d find this game a lot more interesting.

Nice beard dude! (Jesse informs me that this is Kubel. He says I should call him Patches because of the beard…. I don’t feel that I know him well enough yet for this kind of familiarity). Kubel hit it a long way… but he got caught out anyway. Bad luck. Nevermind. One more left before we’re pitching (not the tent kind) again.

Twins also need to practise hitting the ball forward. I feel that this would be useful. Hurrah!!! Someone’s on base (though they got walked, so not anything interesting for the audience yet).

Once again…. Too slow to get to first base. Twins – either learn to hit further or run faster. (At this point the adverts between innings are more interesting than the actual game).

We are now pitching… Another nameless Indian is batting. If they can’t be bothered to put their names on their shirts then I’m not going to bother referring to them by anything other than a number. It makes my life easier (and allows my husband to enjoy the game without having to constantly answer my questions. This makes him happy).

Jesse’s shouting at the TV – I think he thinks something should have been a strike when it wasn’t…. It’s hard to work out exactly what the problem was as I don’t actually understand much of baseball.

A fighter jet just came over the stadium. So far this is probably the highlight of the game for those at the game.

Jesse says ‘Nice Pitch’ and then something about a curveball…. I’ll take his word for it as, once again, I fail to see the difference between this pitch and every other one thrown in the game so far.

And now the latest nameless Indian is out…. On to Inning 3.

3rd Inning:

Hey – that’s Gomez batting now! I recognise him too. I obviously have taken more in than I realised. He’s just got walked…. Another thrilling moment in this game. I can totally understand why Jesse likes to watch this for hours.

Punto is out – but he did a great dive. It was pretty impressive though I bet his outfit is filthy now. I was actually interested in what was happening and Punto should be commended for this. Well done. (Jesse has just explained that people can’t stand Punto’s dives… I don’t care. I still say it’s been the most interesting thing to watch so far this game).

Everyone’s out – double play and we’re finished batting…. Again.

Here comes Cleveland. Number 28 is batting and his bat co-ordinates nicely with his outfit. It’s a shame he has blue and black gloves on; a red pair would have complemented his top much more effectively. He’s out now. I bet that wouldn’t have happened if he’d have thought more carefully about his wardrobe choices

It would appear that Blackburn woke up too late to bother shaving this morning. Not exactly a great representative for his team… I think it just shows laziness. Perhaps this is why he keeps throwing balls… he’s just too lazy to throw the ball properly.

4th Inning:

I think MLB needs to employ some new face painters for each team. The black face paint shows a real lack of imagination… It wouldn’t be that hard to have a tiger, or lizard or something. The kids would love it!! Hell – I’d love it. Just imagine the excitement of ‘What will Punto be today?’ That would definitely liven up the game for those of us who… well…. Don’t really get the more technical aspects.

YAY – Joe’s back. Oh dear - He got caught out by a guy with mirrored sunglasses (number 1). That’s a shame.

Another walk, this time it’s Morneau. I wonder if he’ll get any further… if the other innings are anything to go by; probably not. I stand corrected – Kubel just got walked as well. Well, at least if we can’t do anything well, we can rely on the other team’s incompetence to move us on. It would appear, at this point, that Huff sucks.

No scoring for Twins… Cleveland are batting.

Jesse says the Umpire sucks… I have no idea on this opinion. I just want something interesting to happen soon.

5th Inning:

Nearly halfway through the game and I haven’t fallen asleep yet (though I can’t tell a lie; there have been some yawns). This is progress.

Harris is wearing long socks… I’m not really sure why. I’m pretty sure the other batters haven’t been making the same fashion statement. And he’s caught out (when he was actually on 3-1). Even I can work out that he probably should have gone for the walk – with Huff’s record so far this game it would have been pretty likely.

Punto is up now. He hit it and it’s a fair ball (over first base). Punto makes it to second base and all of the Twins fan breathe a (somewhat shocked) sigh of relief.

OH MY GOSH!!! WE ACTUALLY MANAGED TO SCORE!!!! Punto runs in, Span is on second base. I’m actually interested in the game again. Cabrera gets caught out though and we’re on to the bottom of the fifth.

So here come Cleveland again. Span just made a pretty good catch… I was impressed. Gomez just caught number 25 out…. Onto the sixth.

6th Inning:

I was NOT excited in any way, shape or form, by that inning! Come on Twins, do something soon please.

Cleveland (well number 23) are on first base, even though his bat shattered. Number 13 is out, but number 23 got to second base. If he manages to creep his way around and level the score I will not be pleased.

As if reading my mind, number 2 hits the ball, allowing number 23 to make it round and tie the game. Typical. Now there’s another hit and the Indians have people on first and third. Listening to the commentators, I get the idea that Gomez did pretty well to stop the possibility of another run. But, to be honest, I haven’t a clue what they’re talking about.

Perhaps Blackburn is getting tired, but this inning isn’t looking so great…. And now Crain looks like he’s warming up. I don’t think I’ve heard of him.

Gomez makes a good catch and, once again, we all breathe a sigh of relief. Let’s hope we can play better in the seventh.

7th Inning:

I’m bored. I’ve decided I’ll only write now if something interesting happens.

Harris gets on base because of the incompetence of Indians number 2. This isn’t that interesting but I figure for those of you that care, it’s probably important.

Uh oh – Indians just got another run and Cuddyer had to chase a guy. Quite exciting, until I realised that he dropped the ball… How hard can it possibly be to hold a ball? Jesse is not happy – the tone of his voice tells me this. From my point of view, that all looked pretty rubbish.

8th Inning:

Joe Mauer gets a base hit. But that’s about all that happened in the top of this inning.

Crain has just arrived to try and get the last out of the inning. And he starts with a ball…. Great.

Cleveland hits it…. And they’re out. The end of another brilliant inning (can you hear my sarcasm in America?)

9th Inning:

The game is over. We lose. Well… that sucked.

So, I have come to the conclusion that I would enjoy baseball much more if it was only four innings long. Strangely enough, rounders (the British version of Baseball) is only two innings long. Perhaps that’s why British people prefer it? Or it could be that it’s a game played by girls wearing ridiculously short skirts? You’d have to ask around…

Thinking about it…. Maybe the Twins would be more successful if Baseball didn’t have so many innings. It would certainly stop ridiculous events like the game against Chicago last week.

I really wanted to stay interested for the whole game. I tried really hard. I actually thought Jesse was joking when he said I could do this and when he said I really should do it, I hoped to do a good job. But, as it turns out, my attention span just isn’t suited to this sport. Who knows, maybe the more I watch it the better it will get. Maybe this was just a particularly boring game…. Hopefully at some point in the future MLB will take my face-painting suggestion and then I will definitely watch every game!

Game 121: Mariners 9, Indians 4

Ryan — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 03:01:08 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Writhing in agony, ~~Adrian Monk~~ Jamey Carroll braved the dirt in order to slide in ahead of the tag.

Browse more photos »

After a 1-2-3 first inning, David Huff got into and remained in trouble for the rest of his short outing. Two walks to lead off the second lead to a run, and would have been worse if not for a line drive double play. In the third, he allowed four straight Mariners to reach base after he retired the first batter of the inning. This time Seattle scored twice. Finally, he gave up a home run and double in the fourth, and that was it for him. Huff probably should have been pitching in AAA all season, so it's too early to write off Huff from the rotation of the future. But his struggles in 2009 will probably mean he'll have to work his way back of the depth chart next spring.

The Indians scored four runs, but three of them came after the game had been largely put out of reach. Andy Marte drove in two of the runs, including a game-tying tally in the second.

Next Up: Laffey vs. Fister, 7:05 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

HIghest WPA		Lowest WPA
Andy Marte	.095	David Huff	-.270
Shin-Soo Choo	.046	Tomo Ohka	-.112
Wyatt Toregas	.030	Grady Sizemore	-.106

Joe Mauer Homers, Swarzak Roughed Up

Jesse — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 11:55:27 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins' starting pitcher Anthony Swarzak gets pulled by manager Ron Gardenhire, left, during the fifth inning of a MLB baseball game against the Cleveland, Saturday, Aug. 15, 2009 in Minneapolis. Swarzak gave up five runs on eight hits as the Indians won 7-3. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

Browse more photos »

Twins 3, Indians 7

It's hard to always have the right perspective on a season. If your team struggles early on it can seem like the end of the world, but unless you play for Pittsburgh or Kansas City it's rarely true. When you get to this point of the season however, and you continually drop games you ought to be winning, well, the perspective probably takes on a bit of a different view.

Now it's to the point where you have to start questioning whether the Twins really should be expected to beat teams like the Indians and the Royals. Minnesota has better top-end talent, but that talent hasn't blossomed on the pitching side of the equation like we'd hoped. When Twins starters take the mound this season it's like a crap shoot; if the dice come up snake eyes it usually means an early hole for the offense. And a deep one at that.

Joe Mauer's 22nd home run of the year, in the bottom of the ninth, was too little, too late for the Twins. After scoring a pair of runs in the fifth to close the gap to five, it was all the offense could manage against garbage arms like David Huff and the strugglig Rafael Perez. And with Anthony Swarzak rolling those snake eyes, three runs wouldn't have been enough if the Indians had been unable to bat after the fourth inning.

Unlike Friday night's game, where the middle of the order was given a little help from everyone else, the 7-8-9-1 hitters went 2-for-16 on the night with just one walk. Actually that skews things a little, because to be fair the whole of the middle didn't show up either; Michael Cuddyer collected just one hit, as did Joe Crede (who also picked up one RBI). So really, the 5-6-7-8-9-1 batters were 4-for-25 with a walk. Orlando Cabrera, Justin Morneau and Mauer combined for seven hits and a walk. There isn't much more you could ask for from those three.

And so it goes with the Minnesota Twins in 2009, who have now lost 60 games. Elimination is creeping upon us. A 90-win season would mean a 34 - 12 finish. An 85-win season means a 29 - 17 finish. A .500 finish means 25 - 21 to the checkered flag. I'm an optimist, but seeing the proof in front of us what's the most realistic scenario? To add a little salt into the wound, both Detroit and Chicago won.

If there was every a time for a 12-game winning streak, it's right now.

Stars
#3: Jeff Manship -- A scoreless ninth for his major league debut, striking out one. Welcome to the team!
#2: Justin Morneau -- A pair of hits and a walk, including his AL-leading 94th RBI on his 28th double of the year.
#1: Joe Mauer -- Another three-hit night, including another home run just to the left of center field. He's not hitting .378, 18 points ahead of second-place Ichiro Suzuki.

Duds
#1: Anthony Swarzak -- Even the outs were smashed. When Delmon Young makes a clutch catch over his head, something is amiss.
#2: Joe Crede -- A hit, but six runners were stranded.
#3: Denard Span -- Hitless in five plate appearances; not ideal for the leadoff man.