SB Nation - David Cooper

Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Condition is In: Who Moves Up, Who Moves Down on our Prospect List

Tom Dakers — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 22:48:37 -0000

As a start towards re-doing our prospect list I thought we'd take a look at the guys on our current list and see which ones improved their status with the team and which ones likely dropped back or right off the prospect list. Then we can start looking at who should be on the new list.

I'll list the players in the spots they are at on our current list, which was put together about this time last year.

1.Travis Snider. Snider got 241 major league at bats, in which he hit .241/.331/.430, not great but not bad considering he was just 21, the 6^th youngest player in the AL. He also had 175 at bats at Triple-A Las Vegas hitting a terrific .337/.431/.663 there. Clearly he wasn't one of Cito's favourites, which puts him in a class with Shawn Green and Carlos Delgado, who have roughly 800 major league home runs between them, so not exactly bad company. If you consider Travis a prospect still, he didn't do much to hurt his status as our number one prospect, but I figure we will graduate him off the prospects list and consider him a major leaguer now. It is always possibly that Cito will decide he's not ready for the majors, this spring, and give his at bats to someone like Kevin Millar. Then, he'd be a prospect and a darn good one still, considering he'd just be 22 years old. But, please Cito, play him every day next year.

2. Brett Cecil. Cecil got 17 major league starts last season, going 7-4 with a 5.30 ERA. Not great, not terrible. He was just 22 years old, so still pretty young for a lefty starter. He pitched another 49 innings in Vegas going 1-5 there with a 5.69 ERA. He was moved to the majors before we likely would have liked him to be, with all the injuries we had to the starting staff. If you consider him a prospect still, he's still a good one, just 23 next year. He'd likely be moved down a few spots on our list, but we'll likely ‘graduate' him off the prospect list.

3. J.P. Arencibia. J.P. did not have the season we hoped he'd have. Promoted to Triple-A, he hit just .236/.284/.444 with 21 homers. I guess calling him a Rod Barajas type would be fair, nice power, low average, wouldn't take a walk if his life depended on it. He'll likely move down some on our list, but he's still a decent prospect. He'll be 24 next year so he can't afford another season like this one, but several good players need two years at Triple-A to find their way.

4. David Cooper. In just his second year of pro ball he was moved up to Double-A New Hampshire. It didn't go well, .258/.340/.389. I would think they will start him at Double-A again and hope he moves up quick. He is just 22 and just 2 years removed from college ball, so there is time to right the ship, but I'd expect he'll be dropped several spots down on our next list. Can't write off a guy at his age though.

5. Justin Jackson. Justin moved up to high-A Dunedin to start this year. It didn't go well, he hit .213/.321/.239 and he missed some time with a ‘frayed labrum'. He's still young, just 20 this past year and has good speed (17 steals), can take a walk (39 in 249 at bats) and his defence looks good. He has got the tools, just has to make it all work. We got to see him a few times in spring training and he didn't look out of place. All that said, he likely to move down a few spots on our list. I'm not sure that I don't think Tyler Pastornicky is a better prospect in the long run.

6. Kevin Ahrens. Continuing our list of prospects that disappointed this year, Kevin was moved up to high-A Dunedin for this season and forgot to bring his bat, hitting just .215/.282/.302. Again just 20 and knows how to take a walk but we really would have liked better from him. He'll likely drop several spots on the prospect list. Don't totally write him off at 20 but he's going to have to pick it up next year.

7. Scott Campbell. A personal favourite, he played in Dunedin, New Hamshire and Las Vegas this year and really didn't take a step forward, .272/.368/.356. He started slow then got injured when it looked like he was turning things around. Pretty much a lost year for him. The Jays tried him at 3B some this year, which I don't understand at all, he doesn't have the power for a corner infield spot. I'd give him a mulligan because of the injuries but he was 24 last season, so it is tough to see him as a prospect unless he does something terrific in spring training. Alex Anthopoulos obviously doesn't think too much of him since he's picked up a couple of middle infield types in the past few weeks off waivers: Mike McCoy and Jarrett Hoffpauir. Much as I like Campbell, I can't see him being on the next prospects list.

8. Brad Mills. Brad made a couple of starts for us back in June when virtually every other starting pitcher in our system was hurt. They didn't go well. He made 14 starts in Triple-A Vegas going just 2-8 but with a decent (for the Pacific Coast League) ERA of 4.06. He had a good strikeout to walk rate 35 walks to 72 strikeouts. He had a good spring training with us, he was in the running for a opening day rotation spot, right up until the end. He gives up more fly balls (and therefore homers) than you would like to see. And he will be 25 next season, not old for a lefty starter but time is running out. I think he'll move a few spots down on our prospect list but with luck and work could make the rotation.

9. Ricky Romero. He's graduated off the prospect list. I think I argued that he shouldn't be so high on our list last year. Shows what I know. He is 25 next year and I'd like to have the paychecks he has in his future.

10. John Tolisano. Like fellow 20 year olds Jackson and Ahrens, John played at Dunedin last year and did not do well, hitting .232/.305/.379. Like the other two, he knows how to take a walk and is young enough to overcome it. He did show some power (12 homers) and wasn't doing too bad before just a horrible August that hurt his numbers. That said, he's got good power for a 2B and is young enough to bounce back from this year, but he'll be moved back on our prospect list.

We'll look at the guys that were 11-20 on our list in the next couple of days and 21-30 soon after that. Then we'll take a look at ones that could jump on our next list.

Arizona Fall League: Wednesday's Roundup

raygu — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:00:38 -0000

Getting back to the AFL action as the MLB trade rumors kept me busy yesterday. Let's take a look at Wednesday's action in Arizona:

Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD-1-4, RS, BB. K, 2 SB (.273)

Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD-2-4, 3 RS, 3 RBI, BB, K (.353)

Casper Wells, OF-2-4, 4 RBI (.362)

Chris Heisey,OF, CIN-0-3, SB, BB, K (.320)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN 0-3, BB, 2 K (.273)

Brandon Laird, 3B, NYY-2-5, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.321)

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM- 2-4, RS, HR, 4 RBI (.348)

Taylor Teagarden, C, TEX-0-5, 2 K (.182)

Daryl Jones, OF, STL-1-3, 22, 2 K (.194)

David Cooper, 1B, TOR-3-4, RS, 2B (.294)

Ryan Kalish, 1B, BOS-2-4, 2 RS, HR, 3 RBI (.291)

Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC-2-5, RS, RBI (.364)

Jose Iglesias, SS, -4-4, 2 RS, SB, RBI (.269)

Ian Kennedy, SP, NYY-4.1 Inn, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 K (4.74)

Andrew Cashner, SP, CHC-3 Inn, 7 H, 4 ER, 5 K (4.32)

Nevin Ashley, C, TB-3-5, 3 RS, 2B, 2 3B, RBI (.400)

Danny Espinosa, SS, WAS-1-5, HR, 2 RBI (.306)

Josh Bell, 3B, BAL-2-5, 2B, RBI (.317)

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT-2-4, RBI, BB (.355)

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-2-4, 3B, 2 RBI (.266)

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-1-4, 2B, 3 K (.166)

Willin Rosario, C, COL-0-4, 3 K (.250)

Buster Posey,C, SFG-1-3, BB, K (.230)

Rolling Stone's Matt Taibbi On The Washington Nationals. + AFL Update.

Ed Chigliak — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 03:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

"Can I take your bags, Adam?" Washington Nationals' OF Josh Willingham, 3B Ryan Zimmerman and 1B Adam Dunn wearing what Rolling Stones' Matt Taibbi describes as, "...bright-red uniforms that appeared to have been stolen off the backs of two-and-a-half-star-hotel bell captains." (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

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Oh no! I'm turning the pages of the latest edition (RS 1091) of Rolling Stone magazine (the one with Shakira on the cover), and I get to the Sports column Matt Taibbi's been penning since the start of the football season as he takes a well-earned break from exposing Wall Street swindles, researching the sordid histories of companies like Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and attempting to explain terms like "credit-default swap" "naked short selling" and "collateralized debt obligations" to the masses, to let loose on America's Sunday institution, the National Football League, and in particular, in this column entitled, "How to Wreck a Team", the Washington Redskins and their owner Dan Snyder. "There's no way," I say to myself (and yes I talk to myself in complete sentences), "...that he's going to get through a column on DC sports without taking a shot at the Nationals." And sure enough, in the second paragraph, Mr. Taibbi goes for his own "Natinals" moment:

"You have a responsibility to deliver as a football owner when you live in a city whose only other diversions are a basketball team that used to be called the Bullets and a once-good baseball team that used to be called the Montreal Expos (before someone decided to douse its players in suck juice, dress them in bright-red uniforms that appeared to have been stolen off the backs of two-and-a-half-star-hotel bell captains and bus them to Washington)."

Huh? Not so bad...Taibbi even said the team was "once good", though, sorry DC fans, I think he means the Expos- version, I don't think his argument is as nuanced as to include the first-half-of-'05-Nationals under the heading of "once good" (seeing as how he also ignores the Capitals' existence since they don't fit his narrative), and as for the Nationals "dousing [their] players in suck juice" and outfitting them in the "bright-red uniforms" of "two-and-a-half-star-hotel bell captains", well, at least the Nationals aren't going to be saddled with a description like that which Mr. Taibbi forever attached to Goldman Sachs when he described "...the world's most powerful investment bank," as a, "...great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money."

The Nationals got off relatively easily, though the "suck juice" part hurts...Redskins' owner Dan Snyder...well he doesn't get off as easily as the Nationals...

BACKPAGE:

• Storen Saves!

• Strasburg Monday!

BACKPAGE:

• Storen Saves!

We'll skip the first eight innings of this afternoon's Phoenix Desert Dogs/Mesa Solar Sox AFL matchup since no DC prospects were involved until the Washington Nationals' second '09 1st Round pick Drew Storen took the mound in the ninth with Phoenix ahead 4-3 and the 9,1,2 batters in Mesa's order due up. Marlins' OF prospect Greg Burns sent a fly ball out to left for the first out of the inning, but then Storen surrendered a one-out single to another future Florida outfielder Bryan Petersen, who took second after Cubs' infield prospect Starlin Castro K'd and the #1 Prospect in Chicago's organization (according to Baseball America's '09 Rankings), third baseman Josh Vitters, hit a two-out single to put the tying run in scoring position. Two on, two out, 4-3 Phoenix lead. Storen vs David Cooper, the 5th best prospect in the Blue Jays' system (again acc to Baseball America), and Drew Storen gets a grounder and a force at second to end the D-Dogs' 11th AFL win and earn his second save.

Storen's Line: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 K, 20 pitches, 12 strikes, 5 BF. '09 AFL Stats: (1-0, 1.17 ERA), 2 SV, 7.2 IP, 10 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K's.

Final Score - Desert Dogs 4, Solar Sox 3. MLB.com GameDay.

Desert Dogs now 11-6.

• Strasburg Monday!

The AFL released their weekend update entitled, "AFL Game Notes: Oct. 31 (PDF)", and in it they report that Stephen Strasburg will start for the Desert Dogs on Monday when they travel to Surprise, Arizona to take on the Surprise Rafters in a 12:35 pm MST start.

Matchup:

Stephen Strasburg (2-1, 6.97 ERA) vs Matt Harrison (1-1, 6.00 ERA).

(ed. note - "I was really hoping for a Strasburg/Crow matchup...")

Corner Infielders from the 2008 Draft

John Sickels — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 22:10:44 -0000

Corner Bats from the 2008 Draft

There were seven "infield corner" bats drafted in the first round in 2008, one (Eric Hosmer) from high school and six (Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, Brett Wallace, David Cooper, Ike Davis, and Allan Dykstra) from the college ranks. All were regarded as polished and capable of advancing quickly, though Dykstra was considered a stretch in the first round by most. Let's take a look and see how they did in their first full seasons.

Pedro Alvarez: The second overall pick, Vanderbilt product Alvarez got off to a slow start at Lynchburg in the Carolina League for the Pirates, but turned things on after the first month and hit .247/.342/.486 overall, earning a promotion to Double-A at mid-season. He was blistering after that, hitting .333/.419/.590, finishing the season with a combined .288/.378/.535 mark, 27 homers, 32 doubles, 71 walks, and 129 strikeouts in 465 at-bats. He handled lefties well at the Double-A level (.324/.360/.451), and his defense at third base came out as average according to Minor League Splits.com. There's still some doubt about where he'll end up defensively, and his strikeout rate is rather high, but he draws plenty of walks and overall I think he answered a lot of questions in the second half, firmly establishing himself as an elite offensive prospect.

Eric Hosmer: The third overall pick out of high school in Plantation, Florida, Hosmer was supposed to be a very advanced high school hitter with plus power, excellent strike zone judgment, and the ability to advance rapidly through the farm system. He did show the solid plate discipline in the Midwest League, with a 44/68 BB/K in 280 at-bats, but he hit just .254/.352/.382 overall with very disappointing power. The Royals moved him up to the Carolina League for the last month of the season, for some reason, and he hit just .206/.280/.299 for Wilmington, including .143/.208/.204 in 14 home games. I commented on how he looked at Burlington earlier in the year, his swing sometimes looked quick and smooth and other times appeared mechanical and slow. Hosmer apparently had vision problems most of the year, and had Lasik surgery in late August to correct the issue. Given his youth, it is too early to conclude that this was a busted draft pick, but he has a lot to prove next year.

Yonder Alonso: The seventh overall pick last year out of the University of Miami, Cincinnati prospect Alonso was considered a very advanced college hitter with power and superb strike zone judgment. The main question revolved around his ability to handle left-handed pitching. He split the season between Class A Sarasota (.303/.383/.497) and Double-A Carolina (.295/.372/.457), though he was limited to 84 games by a broken hamate. The platoon splits are still an issue: he hit a combined .307/.382/.502 against right-handed pitching, but just .222/.329/.317 against southpaws. He hit nine homers in 295 at-bats, perhaps less than expected, but also knocked 24 doubles and showed a very sharp eye with 41 walks, 46 strikeouts. I think the home runs will come assuming that the hamate injury heals properly, as that sort of injury can hamper power development. I'm not sure if he'll ever hit lefties, though.

Justin Smoak: Smoak was the 11^th overall pick in the draft, from the University of South Carolina. I thought this was a great bargain for the Rangers; I loved his bat and had him ranked ahead of all college hitters except Alvarez and Buster Posey before the draft. He got off to a great start at Double-A Frisco, hitting .328/.449/.481 with 39 walks and just 35 strikeouts in 183 at-bats. However, he strained an oblique muscle in June, and while he came back quickly he wasn't the same afterward. The Rangers promoted him aggressively to Triple-A Oklahoma City where he hit .244/.363/.360 in 54 games, continuing to show good plate discipline but lacking power. Overall he hit .290/.410/.443 with 12 homers, 75 walks, and 81 strikeouts in 386 at-bats. I still like Smoak a lot, and suspect that the oblique hampered his performance much of the summer. He retained command of the strike zone even when struggling. However, hopes that he would be ready in 2010 have to be tempered; he'll need more Triple-A time.

Brett Wallace: The 13^th overall pick out of Arizona State, Wallace hit .281/.403/.438 for Springfield in the Double-A Texas League in 32 games, then .293/.346/.423 for Memphis in the Triple-A PCL in 62 games. Traded to Oakland in the Matt Holliday deal, he hit .302/.365/.505 for Sacramento in 44 games, giving him a combined line of .293/.367/.455. His plate discipline was a bit weaker than advertised with 47 walks against 116 strikeouts in 532 at-bats, but overall it is hard to fault his performance in Triple-A just one year out of college. Like Pedro Alvarez, Wallace rated as average statistically at third base according to Minor League Splits, though most scouts expect he'll wind up at first base in the long run.

David Cooper: Toronto made David Cooper the 17^th overall pick in '08, from the University of California. He was considered another polished bat with good plate discipline and average power for a first baseman. He hit .333/.399/.502 in his pro debut at the A-ball level, but was unable to duplicate this for Double-A New Hampshire, hitting .258/.340/.389. He showed a little more power in the second half (.427 SLG) than in the first (.363), but in general it was a disappointing season. He did show decent plate discipline with 59 walks in 473 at-bats, but pre-season hopes that he could help early in 2010 appear misplaced and he'll need a good dose of Triple-A. He had a sharp platoon split (.611 OPS vs. lefties, .772 against normal people).

Ike Davis: The 22^nd overall pick out of Arizona State, Davis was supposed to be less polished than college teammate Wallace, but more athletic and with better physical projection. Mets fans were frightened when Davis hit just .256/.326/.316 with zero homers in his 58-game pro debut in the New York-Penn League, but he erased those doubts in 2009 with a strong campaign. He hit .288/.376/.486 in 59 games for St. Lucie in the Florida State League, then .309/.386/.565 in 55 games for Binghamton in the Double-A Eastern League, combining for a .298/.381/.524 mark with 20 homers, 31 doubles, 57 walks, and 112 strikeouts in 429 at-bats. He has work to do against lefties, hitting just .242/.301/.371 against them this year compared to .323/.414/.586 against right-handers. Other than that, his season was very strong and he should be ready to help sometime next year.

Allan Dykstra: Drafted 23^rd overall by the Padres out of Wake Forest, Dykstra was the only one of the first round corner hitters considered to be an overdraft by most experts. He also had a health issue with a degenerative hip condition that reduced his signing bonus, though so far durability on the field hasn't been a problem. Unfortunately, performance was: he hit just .226/.397/.375 at Fort Wayne in the Midwest League. He also drew an amazing 104 walks, giving him a very high OBP despite his poor batting average. His power production was less than anticipated, and he was hampered by a difficult home park, hitting .185/.385/.325 at home vs. 265/.408/.422 on the road. His glove at first base is solid, and the high walk rate is certainly intriguing, but I'm not sure what to expect from him at higher levels.

To summarize, Alvarez looks great right now and Davis has answered doubts about his power. Wallace looks solid to me though I'd like to see a few more walks. Smoak and Alonso have things to work on but both had injury excuses this year, and I retain faith in both of them. Hosmer is the youngest of the group and has time to improve; perhaps the vision problem explains his struggles as well. I'm concerned about Cooper's lack of distance power. Dykstra is an enigma who might blossom next year in a better environment, but he turns 23 in May and can't afford another bad campaign.

John Sickels Updates On Blue Jays' Top 20 Prospects

hugo — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 15:13:13 -0000

Earlier this season, Minor League Ball's John Sickels took a look at the Jays' farm system and set forth a list of the Jays' top 20 prospects. Now, with just a few weeks left in the minor-league season, Sickels brings us an update on how each has progressed, giving us the good and bad news. He's still quite high on Travis Snider and Brett Cecil. Some other high/low points:

David Cooper, 1B, Grade B: Hitting .255/.333/.372 for Double-A New Hampshire. Very disappointing, no power, mediocre batting average and OBP, looks like I overrated him. BB/K ratio is decent, so he still has a chance to improve but needs to make progress quickly in '10.
J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade B-: Hitting .224/.272/.409 for Triple-A Las Vegas. Poor strike zone judgment is holding production back. Good with the glove but has needs big adjustments with the bat.
Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C+: 10-5, 3.66 with 90/44 K/BB in 116 major league innings. One of the best rookie pitchers in baseball, somewhat surprising after a mediocre minor league career. The talent was always there, but he lacked consistency before.
Mark Rzepczynski, LHP, Grade C+: 2.86 ERA with 104/40 K/BB in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 4.38 ERA with 37/19 K/BB in 37 innings in the majors. Looks good so far.

Generally, things aren't looking great on the hitting side, though I do think Cooper seems to be improving and you have to give him credit for starting his first full professional season at AA, a tough test for any minor-league hitter. In addition, there are some hitters Sickels' didn't rank that have shown substantial improvement this season - Moises Sierra, Johermyn Chavez, Adam Loewen, and a couple of others. On the pitching side, the system itself looks a bit thin but only because Romero, Cecil, Ray, Mills, and Rzepczynski all made their major-league debuts this year. In particular the trio of Romeo, Cecil, and Rzepczynski look like an excellent threesome on the left-handed pitching side - but Rzepczynski has a lot more still to prove and Romero and Cecil have to avoid the dread injury bug as they start to shoulder big league workloads. Also, the system will get an infusion of pitching if the Jays can sign their 2009 draftees - Jenkins, Paxton, Eliopolous - which is much needed.

The truth is, the Jays system is really interesting in that it never gets very highly ranked by people who rank prospects systems, but it has been extremely consistent in developing major-league players for the Jays. It's not flashy, but it has been an effective source of cheap, quality major-league players. Halladay, Romero, Cecil, Rzepczynski, Hill, Lind, League, Wells (a week ago we could have added Rios to the list) - all are Jays draftees, and of course don't forget Marcum, Janssen, Litsch, and McGowan. Many other current Jays have spent significant development time in the Jays' minor-league system.

Of course, once the minor-league season rounds up, Bluebird Banter will take a look at the system's season in review and review and update our own top 30 prospects list. Lots of changes, I think we'll find.

Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

John Sickels — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 18:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Ross - AP

Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Ricky Romero (The Canadian Press,John Ross)

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Toronto Blue Jays Top 20 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

This list was originally published December 8, 2008. This is a REVIEW of the PRE-SEASON list for 2009, not a revision of that list. This is a REVIEW of the old list. The first grade listed is the OLD GRADE.

1) Travis Snider, OF, Grade A-: Hit .242/.292/.394 in the majors, .314/.409/.654 in Triple-A. I still believe in the bat and you should too.

2) Brett Cecil, LHP, Grade B+: 4.35 ERA with 54/28 K/BB in 70 major league innings, 81 hits allowed. Gets lots of grounders; I think he's going to be very good as long as he remains healthy.

3) David Cooper, 1B, Grade B: Hitting .255/.333/.372 for Double-A New Hampshire. Very disappointing, no power, mediocre batting average and OBP, looks like I overrated him. BB/K ratio is decent, so he still has a chance to improve but needs to make progress quickly in '10.

4) J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade B-: Hitting .224/.272/.409 for Triple-A Las Vegas. Poor strike zone judgment is holding production back. Good with the glove but has needs big adjustments with the bat.

5) Justin Jackson, SS, Grade B-: Hitting .213/.321/.289 in the Florida State League, with 17 steals. Power has completely vanished, and prone to wild performance swings (.155 in April, .367 in May, .217 in June, .150 in July). Still has tools, but extremely raw. Out with shoulder trouble.

6) Brad Mills, LHP, Grade B-: 4.06 ERA with 72/35 K/BB in 84 innings for Las Vegas. Out with bruised ribs.

7) Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Grade C+: Hitting .214/.285/.282 in the Florida State League. Another guy the Jays drafted for tools who is not improving.

8) Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C+: 10-5, 3.66 with 90/44 K/BB in 116 major league innings. One of the best rookie pitchers in baseball, somewhat surprising after a mediocre minor league career. The talent was always there, but he lacked consistency before.

9) Mark Rzepczynski, LHP, Grade C+: 2.86 ERA with 104/40 K/BB in 88 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, 4.38 ERA with 37/19 K/BB in 37 innings in the majors. Looks good so far.

10) Scott Campbell, 2B, Grade C+: .263/.357/.360 between Las Vegas and New Hampshire. Controls the zone well, but lack of power limits production.

11) Brad Emaus, 2B, Grade C+: .255/.339/.384 at New Hampshire. Good plate discipline, has a little pop, but not repeating '08 numbers at the higher level.

12) Eric Thames, OF, Grade C+: Hitting .308/.391/.442 in the Florida State League, but limited to just 42 games by injury. A good player but appears to be fragile.

13) Luis Perez, LHP, Grade C+: 3.85 ERA with 93/52 K/BB in 131 innings in Double-A. Another ground ball-generating lefty, a type the Jays seem to like.

14) Andrew Liebel, RHP, Grade C: 4.02 ERA with 105/37 K/BB in 132 innings in the Florida State League, 133 hits. Throws strikes, will have to prove that stuff can hold up at higher levels.

15) Tyler Pastornicky, SS, Grade C: Hitting .272/.342/.341 in the Midwest League, with 51 steals. Lots of speed, decent on-base skills, good glove, but lacks power.

16) Robert Ray, RHP, Grade C: Held his own in four major league starts, but out most of the season with shoulder problems.

17) Jon Tolisano, 2B, Grade C: Hitting .240/.311/.419 in the Florida State League. Showing some pop but batting average and OBP are issues.

18) Markus Brisker, OF, Grade C: Hitting .139/.216/.165 with 19 steals in 77 games between Midwest League and NY-P. Lots of speed, can't hit. Still has a cool name.

19) Chad Beck, RHP, Grade C: 5.88 ERA with 62/19 K/BB in 83 innings in the Midwest League, 95 hits. Decent walk rate, but other numbers mediocre and disappointing considering his age (24).

20) Tim Collins, LHP, Grade C: 2.01 ERA with 96/25 K/BB in 63 innings in the Florida State League, 42 hits. Exceptional K/IP and H/IP numbers. And he's just 5-7, 155 pounds in soaking wet clothes after a huge thanksgiving meal.

This is a good news/bad news system. Several of the hitters are failing to develop, including young tools guys like Jackson and Ahrens, and college types like Cooper and Arencibia. On the other hand, Cecil, Romero, and Rzepczynski give three very impressive young lefties on the major league staff. Romero is a huge surprise considering how disappointing his minor league career was, but he was the sixth-overall pick at one point and the talent was always there. Snider will be great, he just needs more experience.

I Work These Hands to Bleed; I've Got These Mouths to Feed: Prospect Midseason Report, vol. 1

hugo — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 00:03:19 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Ricky Romero has leapt tall prospect lists in a single bound, jumping all the way from the Jays' 9th-best prospect to one of the AL's better starting pitchers thusfar this season. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

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Thanks to Ryan Adams (not your inferior Canadian B-Ryan version and definitely don't call him that unless you want to be evicted from the 9:30 club) for today's title, from the beautiful sad song "In My Time of Need," off Heartbreaker, his finest record By the way, best shows I ever saw (and there have been hundreds if not thousands) was an all-acoustic show - Tegan and Sara and Ryan Adams, with Gillian Welch and David Rawlings. Unfortunately, Ryan Adams also put on, by far, the worst show I ever saw, so there's that). I thought it appropriate since we will be looking at the Jays' farm system and the song is about a farmer. Anyway, we'll be looking at the Jays top 10 prospects, as we defined them in this LOTR themed post. Things have obviously changed, but we won't update the rankings until later on.

1. Travis Snider. Moonraker has had a tough time of it. Travis essentially was given the starting left field job before Spring Training even starter, and he did have a fine spring. Unfortunately that only carried about two weeks into the regular season before cracks started showing themselves. Travis couldn't hit much of anything after that, and soon found himself back at AAA. Sadly, Moonraker didn't even have a chance to get his feet under him before going down to shoulder and back injuries, and he hasn't even swung a bat in weeks. He'll try to get on track now that he's been reactivated and could be a September callup (or even earlier, though I tend to doubt that) for the team. Looking behind the numbers, Snider wasn't the victim of bad luck in the majors- just bad hitting. Quite the opposite, his numbers are actually better than his 13.9% line drive rate would suggest. Travis needs to refne his eye at the plate (6.6% walk rate this season, no different than his callup last year) before he finds consistent big-league success. That said, there's no reason to think his future is any brighter than it was before the season - the most worrying thing about this year isn't the 21-year old's hiccup, but the injury (from which he was just activated). It wouldn't surprise me to see him put together a nice second half and head into next year ready to make some waves.

2. Brett Cecil - Cecil wasn't expected to pitch in the bigs this early, particularly after flaming out early on in his spring training bid, but a steady stream of injuries has caused him to make 6 starts and find his way into the Jays' rotation. His 5.09 ERA doesn't look very impressive, but in truth Cecil has been quite good, with 4 good starts and 2 ERA-inflatingly poor ones. Brett has a 24/10 K/BB ratio over his 35 innings, and is more the victim of bad luck on home runs than anything else. With his sinking fastball, Cecil has always had devastatingly good HR rates in the minors, but he ran into a patch of HRs in the majors, particularly in one start against Boston in which he yielded 4 long balls. Cecil displayed a very good fastball, albeit one over which he could have more control, a world-class slider, and a decent changeup. I think his curve needs some work; he seemed to have trouble throwing it for strikes and he hung the occasional one too. With so many Jay pitchers hurt, it looks like Cecil has some more opportunity to show what he can do, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him put together a nice second half. I would like to see the team leave him in the majors at this point unless he pitches his way down.

3. J.P. Arencibia - Arencibia essentially entered this season with two main goals - continue to work on his defense, and develop an improved approach at the plate. While his defense has continued to progress, his approach at the plate has been another story. I thought the Jays were a little aggressive in starting Arencibia at AAA, and he has had some problems there - hitting just .236/.291/.417. That said, he has improved his walk rate - he already has 16 walks this season (in 287 plate appearances) after drawing just 18 all of last season (528 PAs). It's not a drastic difference and still is just a 5.6% walk rate, but it is something. While Arencibia's hitting hasn't been fantastic, he has turned it on some recently, and while he only has 8 HRs so far after hitting 27 last season between AA and AAA, he has 23 doubles and a triple already, which is encouraging. Unfortunately, he was recently put on the DL - let's hope it's not a serious injury. Although Arencibia hasn't progressed as fast as some of us would have hoped, he is holding his own and remains one of the better catching prospects in the game. He might not start 2010 in the majors, but he could be an early callup and an impact player that season.

4. David Cooper - Cooper looked like he was on the fast track to the majors after he jumped from Auburn to Dunedin and then, just as quickly, to New Hampshire last season, but his development has hit a snag so far this season. Cooper has shown a nice eye at the plate (10.4% walk rate) but hasn't shown much power yet (19 extra-base hits, including just 4 home runs). At 22, he has plenty of time to figure out double A. That said, a big second half would go a long way toward demonstrating that his first-round selection in 2008 was a wise one. As an underpowered first baseman with subpar defense, the margin for error isn't large with Cooper.

5. Justin Jackson - Jackson entered this season possessing a strong defensive reputation but some question marks as to how he might develop offensively. That's still very much true of the 20-year old. Jackson looked pretty good in spring training but really struggled to start the season, striking out in over 1/3 of his at-bats and not hitting much of anything. He returned from injury and was good at first but, since then, has continued to struggle at the plate, hitting just .233/.354/.291 on the season and .217/.360/.275 this month. The walk rates are very nice (15.6% this season) but that won't last if he can't start hitting more. He continues to strike out at a rather alarming rate (36%) so making consistent contact will be his primary goal for now. That said, Jackson is young for Dunedin and so it's not a huge surprise to see him struggle in the first half. The key will be seeing if he develops at all this second half. In the field, he continues to draw accolades, though he has also made 16 errors thusfar.

6. Kevin Ahrens - Ahrens, another 20-year old playing at Dunedin, has had some similar problems to Jackson - namely, making contact. Ahrens is hitting just .230/.307/.305 and not showing much in the way of power. The switch-hitter has been a bit unlucky on balls in play, it looks like, and, unlike Jackson, he hasn't had much of a problem with strikouts (22%), though he also hasn't walked as much (9.5%). Bottom line, both Jackson and Ahrens are practically teenagers playing A+ ball, so that they are struggling isn't a shock.

7. Scott Campbell - a bit of a personal favourite, Campbell continues in his quest to become the first native New Zealander to play in the major leagues. Campbell impressed a lot of people this spring after a very strong AA season last year, but of course there was no room for him on the big league team so it was a foregone conclusion that he'd end up in Las Vegas. AAA wasn't kind to Campbell the first time around, and he was unlucky in that just when he started going, he got hurt and missed several weeks. He recently returned and was doing quite well in AA, working his way back up, but then got hurt again. It's quickly turning into a lost season for the Kiwi and he'll try to get healthy and get himself back into AAA and hopefully put up some better numbers.

8. Brad Mills - Mills has had an interesting season. He drew a lot of good remarks in the spring, staying in the race for a rotation spot until the bitter end, when Ricky Romero and Scott Richmond won out instead. But Mills has had an up-and-down season since then. He started off terribly in Las Vegas, walking more batters than he struck out in April, before settling down in May. He struggled in June, though, until he was somewhat surprisingly called up when Casey Janssen and Doc Halladay went on the DL. With the Jays, neither of Mills' two starts could be said to be successful, but he did show his potential striking out 9 over his 7 2/3 innings. However, he had a ton of trouble throwing strikes (7.04 BB/9) and when he did, they got pounded (4 HR and a .442 BABIP against). Mills needs to keep the ball down (his flyball rates are troubling) and get ahead in the count to be successful, and he wasn't able to do that for the Jays. Back in AAA, though, Mills got back on track immediately with a gem of a start yesterday - 8 shutout innings, 2 hits, 7 Ks, and just 1 walk. His overall minor league numbers aren't bad, especially for the PCL, so it's just a question of doing it consistently.

9. Ricky Romero - What is there to say about Romero? Tom already covered Romero's progress, and it has been most impressive. I'm not sure he will pitch in the minors again (save a rehab start here or there). Yes, Romero has been the beneficiary of good luck (87% of runners stranded isn't sustainable) and/or good defense (4.04 FIP, compared to a 2.85 ERA). But he has also made his own luck - a sub 3 BB/9 (2.97) and 7.56 K/9 is extremely impressive for a rookie lefthander, and foretells continued success, as does his ability to get ahead of hitters. Romero has a good fastball, nice breaking pitches, and a very impressive changeup that he is able to throw in any count, making it a formidable weapon. His makeup has also been very impressive - he seems to exhibit excellent poise on the mound and seems both tough and coachable. The East LA kid has gone long way, jumping from 9th best Jays' prospect (and we got some raised eyebrows for ranking him this highly) to one of the better pitchers in the AL this season. If we can keep him away from pollen, we've got ourselves a keeper, I'd venture to say.

10. John Tolisano - Despite being consistently ranked lower than his draftmates with whom he has come up the system, Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson (including by us, but we like him more than most), Tolisano has performed more impessively than either of them at each level. At least, at the plate (I hear mixed things about his defense at second). Tolisano is hitting a respectable .255/.319/.427 this season, with 8 home runs thusfar. He has a decent eye at the plate, makes decent contact, and is showing some power (.173 Iso-p) and is putting together a respectable season at high-A, pretty good for a 20-year old. Tolisano has been hot recently, so a big second half is a possibility.

Well, folks, that's all for now. We'll cover the next 10 at some future date.

I'm Achin' to Be: Minor League Update

hugo — Mon, 18 May 2009 14:45:18 -0000

Thanks to the great band the Replacements for today's minor-league update, which certainly fits for many of our young players trying to work their way up and out of the minors.

Las Vegas

J.P. Arencibia has turned it on a bit of late, hitting .300/.364/.625 over his last 10 games, with 3 home runs, 10 RBI, and 4 doubles. Also very encouraging is his 4 walks over that span (he only had 2 prior to that). Arencibia's on-base numbers over the season are still poor (.283), but he is starting to pick up steam. Scott Campbell, on the other hand, picked up an injury and hasn't played in a while. I haven't been able to find out much about his injury, so if someone could clue us in, that'd be great. Russ Adams has also been out with an injury. Kyle Philips has been hitting well since his promotion to Las Vegas (.373/.433/.525 in 65 plate appearances).

On the pitching side, Brad Mills has been excellent after a rough start. He still hasn't won a game (0-5) but it's through no fault of his own as he has had an excellent May, with a 2.66 ERA with 26 strikeouts and 10 walks over 23 2/3 innings. Fabio Castro has been even better, with a 1.03 ERA over his 4 Las Vegas starts. And David Purcey had a great start his last time out after 2 shaky ones, going 8 scoreless innings and striking out 7 while walking only 2 and yielding 3 hits. Another good outing from Purcey and the Jays will have 3 very viable callup options. Ricky Romero is scheduled to make his first start for the 51s today after a few so-so starts for New Hampshire. Jeremy Accardo had a rough outing last week, his first poor outing of the year. He's a good candidate for a bullpen callup.

New Hampshire

Brian Dopirak continues to make his case for promotion -- he's now hitting .324/.370/.569 and has 8 home runs, 12 doubles, and 1 triple. He has hit both lefties and righties well. Brad Emaus (.299/.378/.479) continues to do a nice job at the plate and has shown a good batting eye recently, with 7 walks to 7 Ks over his last 10 games. On the other hand, Brian Jeroloman and David Cooper have struggled recently and both are now OPS-ing less than .700 for the season. Sean Shoffit (.154/.298/.253) has really had problems after an encouraging spring for the Jays.

New Hampshire's starting pitching continues to be excellent in the absence of Castro, with Marc Rzepczynski really standing out. Zep is 6-2 with a a 2.93 ERA and 52 Ks to 21 walks in 43 innings, not to mention tons of ground ball outs. And he has turned it up even more in May, with a 17/4 K/BB ratio over his 3 starts (18 1/3 IP). And rehabbing Casey Janssen has been nothing short of fantastic - the 27-year old has a 0.77 ERA in his 2 appearances for New Hamphsire after a 0.75 in 3 starts at Dunedin. Overall, Casey has 17 Ks to just 5 walks.

Dunedin

Eric Thames (.340/.418/.462), Darrin Mastroianni (.308/.423/.377) with 23 BBs and 23 Ks and 25/28 on the basepaths, and Moses Sierra (.302/.386/.440) continue to play superb outfield. Justin Jackson has returned and has been red hot, going 8-11 with a double, a walk, and just one K in his four games back. Kevin Ahrens is still rather quiet, and John Tolisano has quieted down but still has, by far, the best numbers of the three at .255/.345/.459. Adam Loewen (.621 OPS) hasn't picked it up yet.

Tim Collins, who started off the season on an absolute tear, has actually been rather shaky lately, with a 6.00 ERA and a 7/5 K/BB ratio over his last 5 appearances. Andy Liebel, who has been having trouble despite excellent peripheral numbers all year a 29/11 K/BB ratio and just 3 HRs allowed in 40 2/3 innings, had by far his worst peripheral start of the season (4 walks and 3 Ks over 6) but just gave up 1 earned run. That was following a start where he struck out 7 and walked no one over 6 innings and gave up 4 runs.

Lansing

Johermyn Chavez continues to swing a very hot bat (.314/.345/.610) with 7 home runs, 6 doubles, and 4 triples on the season. 2008 draftee and third-base prospect Mark Sobelewski has had a very nice May, hitting .309/.408/.418. Balbino Fuenmayor has turned it up after a horrible start to the season, and is hitting .364/.364/.545 in May. However, the majority of Lansing's hitters, incluing Ty Pastornicky, Jon Del Campo, Marcus Brisker, Kenneth Wilson, and the catching tandem of Jon Talley and AJ Jimenez, are not hitting well.

On the other side of the ball, Henderson Alvarez, John Anderson, and Charles Huggins are pitching well, with Huggins (1.78 ERA, 1.02 Whip, and 31 Ks and 10 walks over 30 2/3 innings, though he just turned 23) the best of the three thusfar.

Bring on the Major Leagues: Jays Minor League Update

hugo — Thu, 07 May 2009 14:13:26 -0000

Las Vegas

J.P. Arencibia has begun to pick up a bit, with 2 home runs thusfar in May, but he is still not getting on base (.245 OBP). Scott Campbell, on the other hand, is slowly getting his bat where it needs to be - but slowly. He was 1-3 with a triple and a walk yesterday, and the fact that he was walked (10) more times than struck out (7) even during a slump is a pretty good sign going forward.

Fabio Castro has been quite good after quickly pitching his way up from New Hamphsire - over his 2 starts for Las Vegas, he's got a 2.19 ERA and went 7 strong innings (no runs, 2 hits, 2 walks, 3 Ks) in his last start. He could see the majors soon. Out of the recently exiled, Brian Burres surprisingly put up the better start than David Purcey in their first go around. Purcey was tough to hit in his 6 1/3 innings but he walked 5 batters (striking out 6) so still has some more work to do. Burres went seven strong yesterday and gave up just one run, walking 6 and striking out 1. I point this out because I'm a little afraid of him pitching for the Jays again. Jonah Bayliss had his perfect start ruined with a disastrous outing (1/3 of an inning, 6 earned runs). Dirk Hayhurst seems to struggle whenever he's starting (9.49 ERA, 7/5 K/BB ratio) but do well when pitching out of the bullpen (1.59 ERA, 4/0 K/BB, .090 batting average against).

New Hampshire

Brian Dopirak continues to hit well - he's batting .297/.357/.515 with 5 home runs and 7 doubles but has slowed down very recently after a torrid end to April. A callup could be in order. Catcher Brian Jeroloman has cooled off considerably, though he has started to show his trademark plate discipline. David Cooper continues to hold his own (.345 OBP) which is very good, but he hasn't shown much in the way of power yet (.375 slg, .104 Iso-P). Brad Emaus has picked it up a bit and is now hitting .294/.360/.441/.801 with 10 extra-base hits.

Even with Castro gone, New Hampshire's pitching has continued to be stellar. Marc Rzepczynski is leading the way with 41 Ks in 32 1/3 innings over his 6 starts, for a 3.06 ERA. Reidier Gonzalez, Luis Perez, and Randy Boone have also done very nice jobs. Brandon Magee was promoted from Dunedin and will make some starts for New Hampshire now that Castro is gone.

Dunedin

Eric Thames and Moses Sierra continue to swing very hot bats. Thames is hitting .333 with 3 extra-base hits, 10 RBI, and 8 walks to just 4 Ks over his last 10 games. He's looking like a draft-day steal for the Jays. As for Sierra, the rifle-armed right-fielder is batting .305/.394/.500 and you have to love that power. Another guy who is really hitting well is John Tolisano - he has been red hot recently with 4 home runs, a .300 average, and 7 walks over his last 10 games. Over the season, he is hitting an impressive .262/.366/.541. Tolisano is outpacing his more-heralded fellow draftees - Justin Jackson and Kevin Ahrens. Both have dealt with some nagging injuries (Ahrens just returned) and are really struggling.
Adam Loewen has 12 games under his belt but hasn't done much yet.

On the pitching side, as we mentioned, Magee earned his promotion. Trystan Magnuson could be close behind - the big righty has done a nice job for Dunedin with a 2.95 ERA and 2/1 K/BB ratio over his 18 1/3 innings. Tim Collins has been even more dominant, with almost twice as many strikeouts (31) as innings pitched (16 1/3) and a miniscule .67 Whip. Andy Liebel has also pitched okay in his first full season, with a nice strikeout to walk ratio.

Lansing

Johermyn Chavez continues to hit everything in sight. The toolsy Venezuelan outfielder is now hitting .333/.371/.678/1.049 with 15 extra-base hits (half of his total hit output), including 6 home runs and 4 triples. 2008 draftee third baseman Mark Sobelewski is doing a decent job, hitting .286/.364/.388 and nice walk (about 10% of plate appearances) and strikeout numbers (less than 20% of PAs). Most of the other Lansing hitters aren't doing much yet, though shorstop Ty Pastornicky is picking it up a bit at the plate.

As for rehabbing Jays, Casey Janssen (shoulder) is scheduled to pitch for Dunedin today, with Ricky Romero (oblique) going tomorrow. B.J. Ryan is also beginning his rehab stint with Dunedin. Oh, and thanks to Pavement for today's title.

There There: Thursday Notes on B.J. Ryan, Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Justin Jackson, David Cooper

hugo — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 15:30:17 -0000

Well, we'll have an article later looking at what's going on with the Jays. For right now, let's take a quick look around the organization.

We had some speculation that the B.J. Ryan injury was a fugazi. If that's true, the Jays are going the extra mile. Ryan had an MRI in Dallas and was instructed not to throw for a week due to inflammation around the trapezius muscle. Sounds like maybe late May for Ryan to return? I'm hoping that his problems with command were caused by the injury, and it sounds reasonable.

As for Ricky Romero, he played catch yesterday and felt fine. Arnsberg's plan is to incrementally build Romero up to doing some long toss and then starting bullpen work. It's a conservative approach, which is appropriate given the nature of oblique injuries.

Shaun Marcum has a bullpen session scheduled for today. Marcum will throw 35 fastballs and changeups.

Justin Jackson appears on a Baseball America list. Unfortunately, it's a list of prospects who are struggling:

He works deep counts at-bat, he plays slick defense and he's only 20 years old, but the high Class A Dunedin shortstop has gotten off to perhaps the worst start of any minor leaguer. His performance this week is a perfect example. Jackson went 0-for-25 with 16 strikeouts, and he leads all batters with 27 for the season. Jackson's only positives from the week that was: he walked twice, stole a base and somehow managed to drive in a run.

Ouch. Jackson was 1-3 with a walk yesterday.

The Union Leader, a paper I was in back during the 2004 Democratic New Hampshire Primary (but that's a story for another day) has an interview with Dick Scott, Jays director of player development. Among other things, he says not to worry about David Cooper.