SB Nation - Andrew Cashner

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

Why (And How) The Cubs Should Trade For Curtis Granderson

Al — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:39:01 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

In addition to a good bat, Curtis Granderson would give the Cubs plus defense in CF.

View full size photo »

I'm not sure I really have to convince anyone here of the premise of the headline of this article; numerous people have already posted here about how useful Curtis Granderson would be in the Cubs' outfield, and several traditional media articles in both Chicago and Detroit have discussed this possibility (and those are just three examples of dozens of such articles). Granderson himself is busy this winter pitching a reality TV series:

The Detroit Tigers player has agreed to host a TV and online series titled "Stadium Secrets" where he takes sports fans on an exploration of stadiums.

The concept is similar to Authentic’s "Cities of the Underworld" on History channel.

"Authentic will be providing an exclusive, VIP experience for fans everywhere – a behind-the-scenes journey that will be exciting for all of us. I am eager to begin working on this project and look forward to a successful partnership," Granderson said.

Sounds interesting. I'm hoping Granderson gets to explore Wrigley Field in detail starting next summer. In the meantime, after the jump I'm going to examine Granderson's numbers in detail, explain why he's a perfect fit for Chicago and the Cubs, and look at who the Cubs might have to give the Tigers in exchange.

We have to first start this discussion with a couple of assumptions. First, we assume that Milton Bradley has been, or will be, traded before any Granderson deal, thus opening up center field for the Cubs (with Kosuke Fukudome moving back to right field, a position he plays better; this would solidify Cubs defense in two positions). It is, of course, possible that Bradley could be part of a deal for Granderson, but I am going to operate here under the assumption that he's not, that Bradley will be dealt to some other team (the Rays?) and that any Granderson trade would be a separate transaction.

Second, I think you have to assume that Granderson has to be, at this stage of his career -- he will be 29 on March 16, not old, but getting toward the end of his "best" year capability -- platooned, at least to some extent. His career splits:

vs. RHP: .292/.367/.528, .894 OPS
vs. LHP: .210/.270/.344, .614 OPS

Last year it was even more extreme:

vs. RHP: .275/.358/.539, .897 OPS
vs. LHP: .183/.245/.239, .484 OPS

Against RHP, Granderson hits almost as well as Aramis Ramirez -- All-Star level. Against LHP... well, he's basically Aaron Miles. So you'd probably want to re-sign Reed Johnson to give Granderson a break against LHP. Johnson doesn't hit righthanders, but against LHP his career line is .313/.378/.463, an OPS of .841, nearly as good as Granderson vs. RHP. These two together would produce outstanding offensive numbers from the CF position and good defense. The Tigers started Granderson in 155 games in 2009 because, well, they really didn't have any other choice. The other eight (remember, the Tigers played 163 games in 2009) games were started by Josh Anderson (1), Clete Thomas (2) and Ryan Raburn (5), and of those guys, only Raburn can hit (he hits LHP pretty well -- the Tigers could have gotten more offense out of CF if they had played Raburn there a bit more often vs. LHP).

So a modified platoon of Granderson and Reed Johnson would be, in my opinion, the ticket to success for the Cubs outfield. I say "modified" because Johnson would also have to spell Fukudome in RF from time to time; on those days, Granderson would have to start in CF vs. LHP. Sam Fuld would stick with the team as the fifth outfielder, someone who could take over in the late innings for Alfonso Soriano. The Cubs' outfield would be very good defensively and close to outstanding offensively.

Granderson's contract, though it has three full years to run (and a 2013 option) is not onerous. Like many Jim Hendry contracts in recent years, it's backloaded. In 2010, Granderson is due to make a somewhat-reasonable $5.5 million; that increases to $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012, with a $2 million buyout in 2013 (all figures, as always, from the excellent Cot's Baseball Contracts), that would increase to $13 million (with some escalators to that based on performance) if the option is exercised. That would make the total financial commitment $25.25 million (presuming the buyout is done), spread over four years from 2010-2013. That's not unreasonable for a player of Granderson's ability.

Now -- how do you get him? The Tigers seem to be in partial-sell mode; that is, they'd like to shed some of their big-dollar contracts, but not get into full rebuilding mode. Thus, you'd need to get them at least a couple of players who could step in right now and contribute at the major league level. I can't find the link right now, but in a recent Baseball America online chat, a question was asked to BA's Jim Callis about this type of deal:

Q: Would Josh Vitters, Jake Fox, and Jay Jackson be enough for the Cubs to land Curtis Granderson if he really is available? Would you do that deal if you were the Cubs?

Jim Callis: I would think so. The Tigers have to dump salary, so I might try to hold onto Vitters and see if Detroit would take Ryan Flaherty, or hold onto Jackson and offer a lesser pitcher. But the Cubs are in win-now mode, and I think they'd bite.

I'd do this deal. Starlin Castro may be the flavor-of-the-month after his .376/.396/.491 performance in the Arizona Fall League, but I think he has higher upside than Vitters, who also hit well in the AFL (.353/.380/.455), and I would not trade Castro. It's entirely possible that Vitters will become a good major league player -- but you're getting a good major league player in return. Jake Fox is miscast in the National League; though he worked hard at playing 3B, C, LF and RF, his best position is DH. Throw in the fact that he played college ball at the University of Michigan, and he's a natural for Detroit. Jay Jackson has been up and down in the Cubs organization and while he has talent, I'm not quite sure what role the Cubs have in mind for him. He was exclusively a starter in 2009 after starting and relieving in 2008.

Callis thinks this would get a deal done and I'd do it -- but I suspect the Tigers might ask for Andrew Cashner instead of Jackson. That's a high price to pay -- Cashner has a shot at the major league bullpen for the Cubs in 2010 and he could even be viewed as a closer candidate by the Tigers, who are likely to let Fernando Rodney walk. (Rodney had a decent year in his first full season as closer, but will be 33 in March.)

I'd still do Vitters, Cashner and Fox for Granderson. For those of you who say, "No way! Keep those prospects! We can't give up both Vitters and Cashner!", I say that one of the things you can do with your prospects is turn them into productive major league players. The Cubs did this in acquiring Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez; when D-Lee was acquired he was just about the same age Granderson is now.

I might even do Vitters, Fox, Cashner AND Jackson for Granderson. To illustrate why, let me tell you a little story I just read about from Cubs history. Take it for what it's worth, because it came from the new edition of Leo Durocher's (ghostwritten by Ed Linn) autobiography, "Nice Guys Finish Last" (mini-book-review: recommended, for its interesting take on Durocher's era in baseball history). In it, he describes having discussions along with GM John Holland, with the Baltimore Orioles in the winter of 1971 about trading for Frank Robinson. According to the book, the Orioles asked for five young players -- pitchers Earl Stephenson, Jim Colborn, Bill Bonham, Joe Decker and outfielder Brock Davis. Durocher's book says they hedged, asking to make it four-for-one, not wanting to give up both Decker and Bonham.

You know what? They should have offered Baltimore GM Frank Cashen a handshake and done the deal right then and there. The next day, Robinson was traded to the Dodgers -- for four minor leaguers, only one of whom (Doyle Alexander) had a significant major league career.

The day after that, the Cubs traded Stephenson, Colborn and Davis to the Brewers for Jose Cardenal. Stephenson and Davis never had any significant impact in the major leagues. Colborn did have a few decent major league seasons, winning 20 games for the Brewers in 1973. Bill Bonham never became the big winner the Cubs thought he would; eventually he was traded to the Reds for Woodie Fryman and Bill Caudill. Joe Decker was traded to the Twins (with Bill Hands) a year later for Dave LaRoche.

None of those deals would have had the impact that getting Frank Robinson to play right field for the 1972 Cubs would have had. At 35, Robinson was past his best years, but would have been a far better hitter in Wrigley Field than he was in Dodger Stadium that year. (Robinson also got hurt in 1972 and missed almost 60 games; whether that would have happened to him as a Cub is unknown, obviously.)

The 1972 Cubs finished fourth in the league in runs scored and would have been a better offensive team with Frank Robinson than they were with Jose Cardenal; neither Bonham nor Decker had any significant impact on the '72 team.

The point is, that sometimes you have to take team "prospects" -- who may never pan out to what you hope they will -- to win now. Trading Vitters and Jay Jackson -- or even Vitters, Jackson and Cashner -- may provide dividends to the Detroit Tigers two or three years down the road. But acquiring Curtis Granderson, who, in addition to his talent on the field, is also, from all reports, a good clubhouse guy who spends a lot of time giving back to the community (and is a native Chicagoan), would go a long way to helping the 2010 Cubs return to the playoffs and give them a chance to win it all.

And isn't that what we all want?

As we often say here... GETITDON EJIM.

Arizona Fall League: Slugfest Highlights Tuesday's Roundup

raygu — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:15:09 -0000

There were 39 runs and 39 hits in the game between the Javalinas and Saguaros on Tuesday afternoon with Mariners outfield prospect Dustin Ackley leading the way with 4 hits, 3 runs scored and 3 RBI.

Ackley was the Mariners first round pick in the June 2009 first year player draft and has a bright future with the Mariners. Here is what John Sickels from SB Nation's Minor League Ball site had to say about Ackley back in April, prior to the June draft:

Dustin Ackley, 1B-OF, North Carolina
Ackley is a pure hitter with developing power. Although playing first base this year, scouts say he has enough athleticism to play the outfield, perhaps even center field. He's hitting .395/.505/.716 for North Carolina, excellent numbers in context. His strike zone judgment is very good (34 walks, 20 strikeouts in 162 at-bats). He could go just about anywhere in the first round after Strasburg, depending on his bonus demands.

And here is what he had to say about him after seeing him in the AFL last week after the jump:

ackley

I liked Ackley’s bat a lot….everything he hit was hit very hard, even foul balls were hard. I think he’ll be a strong batting average/high OBP hitter, but perhaps with just 15 homer power.

Now let's get to the boxscores:

Dustin Ackley-4-6, 3 RS, 3 RBI (.323)

Jordin Danks-3-6, 2 RS, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K (.322)

Jonathan Lucroy-2-6, 2 RS, 2B, 3 K (.315)

Carlos Triunfel-2-5, 2 2B, 5 RBI (.233)

Lance Zawadzki-2-5, RS, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K (.305)

Chris Heisey-2-4, 2 rs, (.297)

Yonder Alonso-0-3, 2 RS, RBI, 2 BB, 2 K (.260)

Carlos Rivero-3-6, 2 RS, 4 RBI (.337)

Dirk Hogan-1-3, 2 RS, HR, 5 RBI (.208)

Ike Davis-2-5, 3 K (.333)

Nick Evans-1-4, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.188)

Mike Moustakas-1-5, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.268)

Starlin Castro-2-4, RS, 2 SB (9) (.387)

Ian Kennedy-5 Inn, 5 H, 1 ER, 5 K (4.25)

Andrew Cashner-3 Inn, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 K (4.58)

Jemile Weeks-1-3, 2 BB (.250)

Josh Bell-1-5, 2B (.321)

Grant Desme-1-4 (.330)

Brandon Crawford-2-4, RS, 3b, 2 RBI (..299)

Jose Tabata-3-5, RBI, SB (4) (.355)

Domonic Brown-0-5, 3 K 9.239)

Thomas Neal-1-4 (.275)

Brandon Allen-0-3, RS, BB, K (.155)

Willin Rosario-4-4, RS, RBI (.294)

MLB Trade Rumors: Curtis Granderson to the Cubs for Starlin Castro?

raygu — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 16:00:28 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

2 months ago: Detroit Tigers' Curtis Granderson rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Minnesota Twins in the eighth inning of Game 2 of a baseball doubleheader Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Detroit. The Tigers defeated the Twins 6-5. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Browse more photos »

Yesterday Phil Rogers from the Chicago Tribune confirmed that the Cubs are indeed interested in trading for the Tigers outfielder Curtis Granderson. Here's a snippet:

A source close to the Cubs said Friday that general manager Jim Hendry "absolutely" is interested in offering a prospect-heavy package of players if Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski decides to trade the 28-year-old Illinois-Chicago product.

According to the source, Hendry and Dombrowski spoke about Granderson and other Tigers players during the GM meetings earlier in the week at the O'Hare Hilton.

Rogers goes on to mention that the Cubs highly rated prospect SS Starlin Castro could be one of the main pieces in a deal for Granderson:

A Cubs offer could be built around 19-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro, who is emerging as one of the top prospects in the minors. Third baseman Josh Vitters, 19-year-old Korean shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and minor league pitching from a group including Andrew Cashner, Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter also could be part of deal.

Rogers also mentions that the Cubs could offer 3B/OF Jake Fox or Mike Fontenot in the deal for Granderson as well. Fox would make a perfect DH for the Tigers, or any other AL team for that matter.

Should the Cubs deal for Granderson, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to deal 3B prospect Josh Vitters before offering Castro, as it appears that Castro could be closer to the big leagues than Vitters is. Then again, I am sure Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski prefers a major league ready prospect in return for Granderson.

Poll

Should the Tigers ask for Starlin Castro or Jake Fox/Josh Vitters in a deal for Curtis Granderson?

Castro-he's close to being ready

191 votes

Fox/Vitters

215 votes

406 votes | Poll has closed

Arizona Fall League: Wednesday's Roundup

raygu — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:00:38 -0000

Getting back to the AFL action as the MLB trade rumors kept me busy yesterday. Let's take a look at Wednesday's action in Arizona:

Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD-1-4, RS, BB. K, 2 SB (.273)

Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD-2-4, 3 RS, 3 RBI, BB, K (.353)

Casper Wells, OF-2-4, 4 RBI (.362)

Chris Heisey,OF, CIN-0-3, SB, BB, K (.320)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN 0-3, BB, 2 K (.273)

Brandon Laird, 3B, NYY-2-5, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI (.321)

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM- 2-4, RS, HR, 4 RBI (.348)

Taylor Teagarden, C, TEX-0-5, 2 K (.182)

Daryl Jones, OF, STL-1-3, 22, 2 K (.194)

David Cooper, 1B, TOR-3-4, RS, 2B (.294)

Ryan Kalish, 1B, BOS-2-4, 2 RS, HR, 3 RBI (.291)

Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC-2-5, RS, RBI (.364)

Jose Iglesias, SS, -4-4, 2 RS, SB, RBI (.269)

Ian Kennedy, SP, NYY-4.1 Inn, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 K (4.74)

Andrew Cashner, SP, CHC-3 Inn, 7 H, 4 ER, 5 K (4.32)

Nevin Ashley, C, TB-3-5, 3 RS, 2B, 2 3B, RBI (.400)

Danny Espinosa, SS, WAS-1-5, HR, 2 RBI (.306)

Josh Bell, 3B, BAL-2-5, 2B, RBI (.317)

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT-2-4, RBI, BB (.355)

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-2-4, 3B, 2 RBI (.266)

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-1-4, 2B, 3 K (.166)

Willin Rosario, C, COL-0-4, 3 K (.250)

Buster Posey,C, SFG-1-3, BB, K (.230)

The Future Is Now: Arizona Fall League Rising Stars Showcase Preview, Saturday 11/7, 7:15 CT

Al — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 19:00:30 -0000

View full size photo »

The 2009 baseball season has just ended, and in a way, you could say that tonight, the 2010 season begins.

While we are not going to see the most-hyped prospect, Stephen Strasburg -- he was scratched due to a strained neck muscle -- or Cubs prospect Josh Vitters, also scratched with a minor injury, there will be plenty of players in tonight's game who you'll see in the major leagues next season.

Among them are Giants prospect catcher Buster Posey, who played in two games against the Cubs last September; Hank Conger, who may be the Angels' next catcher; and, of course, the Cubs' own Starlin Castro, who we have been talking about here all throughout the AFL season. Castro enters tonight's game leading the AFL in batting average (.424). Castro probably isn't quite ready for the major leagues -- he won't turn 20 until March and has played only 31 games above A ball -- but he'll likely get into some spring training games next March and could get a September callup in 2010.

Andrew Cashner, also in the AFL, won't play tonight either, so the only other Cubs prospect who might participate will be Blake Parker, who had 22 saves for Iowa last year and who might have a shot at the major league bullpen in 2010.

There were a number of players from the 2008 AFL who made significant impacts on the 2009 major league season, including Tommy Hanson, Gordon Beckham, Matt Wieters, Bud Norris and Phil Hughes. I figure enough of you are interested in, and will be watching, this game, that it deserved its own game thread.

Broadcast and other detailed information after the jump.

MLB.com article about tonight's game, which will begin at 7:15 CST.

MLB Network will carry a live broadcast of the Rising Stars Game with Diamondbacks announcer Daron Sutton and MLB Network's Tony Clark in the broadcast booth. A live video feed will also be available on MLB.com.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Arizona Fall League: Thursday's Roundup

raygu — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 14:15:25 -0000

Just an FYI for those of you who want the chance to watch an AFL game, check out the MLB network on Saturday night at 8:00 for the annual Rising Stars game. The best prospects in the AFL will be showcasing their talents including Stephen Strasburg who will start the game, Starlin Castro, Yonder Alonso, and Dustin Ackley among many others.

There were lots of runs scored in Thursday's action in the AFL. Let's tale a look at the top performances after the jump:

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK-1-5, 2 RS, SB (.300)

Brandon Snyder, 1B, BAL-2-4, RS, 2B, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 BB (.373)

Danny Espinosa, SS-3-3, 4 RS, 2 RBI, 2 BB, SB (.357)

Chris Marrero, 1B, WAS- 2-4, 3 RBI (.371)

Grant Desme, OF, OAK 1-5, 2 RS, (.373)

Josh Bell, 3B, BAL-1-5, BB, 2 K (.309)

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN-1-2, RS (.275)

Matt McBride, C, CLE-1-2, 2 RS, HR, RBI (.409)

Drew Storen, RP, WAS-1 Inn, H, W (2)

Brandon Hicks, SS, ATL-3-5, RS, RBI (315)

Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD-0-4, 3K (.361)

Lorenzo Cain, OF, MIL-2-4 (.220)

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC-2-4, RS, RBI (.433)

Ryan Kalish, OF, BOS-2-4, RS, RBI, (.292)

Paul Phillips, OF, LAA-3-4, 2 RS, 2 2B, HR, RBI (.293)

Andrew Cashner, SP, CHC-4 Inn, 5 H, 4 K (2.63 ERA)

Cubs AFL Update

Josh77 — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 07:35:00 -0000

I hadn't done anything with the Arizona Fall League so far. I thought that the fanposts you all were doing was handling the situation pretty well. But the AFL is a little over two weeks old now, so it's probably time for an update.

Just some few basic information to start. The Arizona Fall League is a post-season league for minor leaguers. mostly from AA and AAA teams. The six teams play in the Spring Training complexes in the Cactus League. The Cub prospects are on the Mesa Solar Sox, a team that is also stocked with players from the Angels, Red Sox, Marlins and Twins.

Generally, the AFL is considered a hitters league. Usually teams don't send their top pitching prospects to Arizona, preferring to let them rest their arms. This year the pitching is a little better, with hurlers such as the Yankees' Ian Kennedy, the Reds' Mike Leake, the Rangers' Tanner Schleppers, our Andrew Cashner and some guy who plays for the Nationals named Stephen Strasburg. Still, the league continues to favor offense by a large margin, so take that into account when looking at the stats.

Also, don't forget that the Mesa Solar Sox have 37 players from six teams (they've got one lone Blue Jay for some reason) on their roster. So if it doesn't seem like a Cub player is playing much or playing out of position, don't forget that other teams want to get their players into the game as well.

So having said that, the Cubs prospects are mostly having a strong Autumn down in the Valley of the Sun. I'll summarize all seven players' season after the jump.

Starlin Castro: 12 Games. 18-43 .419 AVE. 2 2B. 2 SB 3 BB 3 SO.

Castro is making it tough to determine who the top prospect in the Cubs system right now. He's turning the heads of a lot of scouts down in Arizona. Even more important, he's only made one error in Arizona after making a bucketload of them in the minors this past season. There is very little doubt now that he'll play SS in the majors one day soon. No, not this April. The only question is whether he'll develop either the power or the OBP skills to be an all-star.

Josh Vitters: 9 Games. 13-37 .351 AVE 3 2B. 2 BB 5 SO.

While Castro is showing some impressive talents in Mesa, Josh Vitters is showing that the wrist problems that hindered him in the second half of the season are behind him. He still isn't walking much, which is troubling, but he is there to work on his swing and testing his wrists. If Castro has passed him as the #1 prospect in the system, it's not because Vitters is disappointing anyone in Arizona.

Welington Castillo: 4 Games. 5-14 .357 AVE 1 HR. 2 BB 5 SO.

Castillo hasn't played much, but he's been fine when he gets into the game.

Andrew Cashner: 3 starts. 1-2 record 3.72 ERA. 9.2 IP 6 Hits. 3 BB 7 K.

Cashner has made three starts. In the first one, he got rocked for three runs in two innings, including a home run. In the second game, he allowed only one run in 3.2 innings and didn't walk anyone. In the third game this past Wednesday, Cashner threw four no-hit innings, walking two and striking out four. He reportedly hit a high of 96 mph on his fastball and was throwing a wicked slider. Someone is going to call Cashner the top prospect in the system this off-season, too.

James Russell: 5 Games 0-1 2.57 ERA. 7 IP 8 Hits. 2 BB 6 K

The lefty has been pitching out of the bullpen in the AFL and has been effective. After his first appearance when he gave up thre runs in two innings, he's thrown five shutout innings.

Blake Parker: 5 Games. 1-1 5.40 ERA. 5 IP 7 Hits. 2 BB 3 K

Parker's been going in the opposite direction of Russell, having started out the season strong but he's given up three runs total in his last two relief appearances. He gave up two solo home runs last Saturday in the one inning he pitched.

John Gaub: 5 Games. 1-1 14.40 ERA. 5 IP 10 Hits. 1 BB 8 K

Gaub is the one Cub having a really miserable AFL experience. He's given up at least one run in four of the five games he's pitched, including one game where he allowed four runs on four hits in his one inning. At least the strikeout-to-walk ratio is nice.

If anyone actually cares, the Mesa Solar Sox are 5-10, which is the worst record in the AFL. All I can say is that it's not the Cub players fault.

Arizona Fall League: Grant Desme On A Power Surge

raygu — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:30:30 -0000

Oakland A's outfielder Grant Desme loves his some Arizona fall ball and he hit 2 more home runs on Wednesday. He is leading the AFL in hitting with a .469 AVG with 10 HRs and 22 RBI. He could rocket up prospect lists this winter.

Here's the rest of the performances from Wednesday's action:

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK-3-3, RS, 2 2B, 2 RBI

Grant Desme, OF, OAK-3-4, 4 RS, 2 HR, 4 RBI

Brandon Snyder, 1B, BAL-1-4, RS

Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD-2-5, RS, RBI

Andrew Lambo, OF, LAD-1-4, RS

Jordan Danks, OF, CHW-1-3, RS RBI

Drew Storen, RP, WAS-1 Inn, H, K

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT-1-5, RS

Chase D'Arnaud, C, PHI-1-4, 2B, RBI

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI-0-5, 2 K

Brandon Allen, 1B, ARI-0-3, BB, 3 K

Brandon Crawford, 3B, SFG-2-4, RS, HR, RBI

Buster Posey, C, SFG-1-3, 2 RS, BB

Bryan Peterson, OF, FLA-2-5, 2 RS, HR, 2 RBI, SB

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC-2-5, 2 RS, RBI

Josh Vitters, 3B, CHC-2-5, RS, RBI

Casey Kelly, SS, BOS-2-4, RS, 2B, 3B, 4 RBI

Andrew Cashner, SP, CHC-4 inn, 0 H, 2 BB, 4 K

Chris Heisey, OF, CIN-0-3, RS, BB, SB

Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN-2-4, 2 RS, 2 RBI

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL-3-4, RS, RBI, 2B

Brandon Hicks, SS, ATL-2-4, 3B, RBI

Aaron Crow, SP -4 Inn, 3 H, 2 ER, BB, 2 K