SB Nation - Ryan Theriot

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

Cubs close to deal with Mike Cameron?

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:37:48 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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The Chicago Sun-Times is reporting that the Cubs' top option for center field is free agent Mike Cameron. Piniella and Cameron have history going back to their time in Seattle together, and there is believed to be mutual interest in a reunion.

''I love the guy,'' Piniella said Friday night in Cincinnati during a reunion event for the 1990 World Series champions at the annual Redsfest. ''Mike is somebody we've talked about. I'm looking forward to Sunday, [when team officials meet before] the meetings over in Indianapolis.''

However, the Cubs need to unload Milton Bradley first, and are hoping to move him before the Winter Meetings kick off on Monday. That way, there will be enough money to ink Cameron.

Cameron would give the Cubs an option in the two spot or in the five spot, based upon where he hit last year. He strikes out a lot, but he gives the Cubs another run producer who has a great feel for the outfield. His addition would push Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.

A Cubs lineup with Cameron would look something like this:

Mike Cameron

Kosuke Fukudome

Jeff Baker/Mike Fontenot

A pretty dangerous lineup on paper if guys like Soto and Soriano can return to form. Sources say the Cubs are not exploring the second base market, but guys like Felipe Lopez are still available.

The team is also looking at outfielder Marlon Byrd.

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:12 -0000

I've been waiting for the MLB.com beat writers to start writing their normal offseason Inbox articles, and today a bunch of them responded. The Mets beat writer Marty Noble and and the Marlin's Joe Frisaro were the only ones writing the Inbox articles until today.

Here are a few snippets regarding some of the top prospects:

Mark Bowman, Braves:

Can the Braves move Chipper Jones to first base and maybe look for a third baseman?
-- Edward G., Santiago, Dominican Republic

Chipper has said numerous times that he'd accept a move to the other corner if the Braves had a better third-base option. While they don't currently have a better option in their system, they could be tempted to make this move if they were to grab Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre or Pedro Feliz off the free-agent market.

But with the strong possibility that Freddie Freeman could be ready to assume his role as the everyday first baseman by the start of the 2011 season, where would you then play Chipper during the final two years of his contract?

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers:

It sounds like the Dodgers already have no chance at trading for Roy Halladay. If their farm system is so good, why can't they swing deals for big-name players the way the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox do?
-- Seth F., Vero Beach, Fla.

Actually, they made one of the biggest trades for a big-name player in recent years in 2008 -- for Manny Ramirez. In the case of Halladay, if the Blue Jays insist on a Major League starting pitcher in return -- and why wouldn't they? -- then the Dodgers are not a fit. That's the Dodgers' need, not a surplus. General manager Ned Colletti has said he doesn't believe he can improve his starting rotation by trading away a pitcher out of that starting rotation. One thing you haven't heard in recent years is that the Dodgers have blocked young talent, because their young talent has become the nucleus of the team. So there isn't a surplus of Major League-ready players to trade for marquee players. And one who would qualify in that category, Blake DeWitt, is likely to get a shot to be the starting second baseman next year.

More after the jump:

Marty Noble, Mets:

Daniel Murphy is not the answer at first base. The club should re-sign Carlos Delgado for one year, allowing him to demonstrate whether he has anything left. I believe he is an all around better player than Murphy, who seems like he cares, but I'm convinced he at best is a bench player. They should wait for Ike Davis to develop.
-- John A., Whitestone, N.Y.

I'm not sure about Delgado. The Mets have questions about his ability to move at first base. Off what I saw in 2007 and the first half of 2008, I have questions about his willingness to move. His bat seemed potent in the games he played before his hip surgery developed in May.

I suspect you and the club aren't on the same page about Murphy. And I don't see how Murphy and Delgado fit in the same roster, particularly if a right-handed-hitting first baseman is needed. But you and the club seem to agree on Davis. And I have the same sense. Give him time to develop.

Carrie Muskat, Cubs:

Have you heard if Ryan Theriot has been working on his footwork at second base? I believe Jeff Baker has more value off the bench with Aramis Ramirez having his shoulder issues and such.
-- Aaron L., Chicago

Theriot has been told to dust off his second baseman's glove because he could be switching to second base if the Cubs decide top prospect Starlin Castro is ready for the big leagues. Theriot has played second before in the Major Leagues, last doing so in 2007 (37 games). I agree about Baker being a valuable player to have on the bench.

Adam McCalvy, Brewers:

How does the addition of Carlos Gomez affect Lorenzo Cain's future with the organization?
-- Michael Holyoke, Thiensville, Wis.

It slows Cain's progress to the Majors, though injuries in 2009 probably took care of that already. Cain missed time with a left knee injury and then struggled to trust the knee when he returned, according to Nichols. Cain will begin the year at Double-A Huntsville or perhaps Triple-A Nashville while Gomez gets a chance to dig a foothold in Milwaukee. Remember, Gomez is raw himself (at least offensively) so there remains plenty of opportunity for guys like Cain or Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Why can't we look at moving Ryan Doumit back to right field to fill our offensive needs rather than trade him? -- Bob, Fombell, Pa.

That would seem to be a viable possibility, but not one the Pirates have shown interest in really exploring further for whatever reason. When I asked Huntington about the possibility of Doumit playing right field, he said the organization sees it as a possibility right now only on days when Doumit is off behind the plate. As a result, don't be surprised if you do see Doumit make a handful of spot starts in right when he isn't catching, in order to keep his bat in the lineup. You'll remember Doumit did just that one time last September.

Keep in mind, too, that the Pirates' right fielder is likely to soon be Jose Tabata. So, if the Pirates do pursue a corner outfielder this winter, it would likely be for a short-term fit. It might not be the best option to move Doumit to right knowing that he wouldn't be able to stay there but for a few months.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Where does Milledge fit into next year's lineup? I think he played a pretty strong second half this past year, and showed some improvements in his game. Is he an outfielder of the future, along with Andrew McCutchen?
-- Jake C., Kent, Ohio

If the Pirates' starting lineup is made up of players currently within the organization (meaning no additional offseason adds), I could very well see Milledge slotting into the fifth spot in the batting order, behind Doumit. Milledge finished the season by hitting .311 in his final 44 games, and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain offensive numbers like that for a longer period of time. Also, both Milledge and the Pirates' staff expect him to show more power in 2010 now that his right hand has returned to full strength after an early-season injury.

I do think you can mention Milledge as one of the club's potential outfielders of the future. He was not brought in as a placeholder. In fact, at this time next year, I'd expect we'll be talking about a pretty intriguing outfield trio of Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata.

Cubs pursuing short-term shortstop for 2010?

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 18:40:10 -0000

More photos » by Evan Vucci - AP

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The Cubs have told starting shortstop Ryan Theriot to start working out second base, in preparation for top prospect Starlin Castro taking over at shortstop at some point next season.

While there are no guarantees that Castro will see time at Wrigley in 2010, he certainly has shown he has what it takes by hitting .299 in 127 games between High-A and Double-A with 29 extra-base hits, 28 stolen bases, and K/BB of 53/29, and a .342 on-base percentage. He followed his breakout season with a .376 average in 26 games in the AFL.

If Theriot expects to remain in the league long-term, a move to second is essential. He does not have a strong enough arm for shortstop, despite putting up an above average UZR/150 of 8.3. If he can continue to hit between .280-.300, he should be able to hold down a position in the Cubs infield for some time.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ryan Theriot	154	602	81	171	20	5	7	54	51	93	21	10	.284	.343	.369

This is definitely a cost-saving move for the Cubs down the road. The Cubs are expected to add an outfielder this offseason, but that move hinges on when and for who they trade Milton Bradley for. Beyond that, the Cubs seem committed to developing their minor league system, where they have young pitchers who appear ready to contribute and lower-level bats who are on the verge of reaching some of the tougher levels.

Free agent shortstop Orlando Cabrera could be a target for the Cubs on a one-year deal, giving the Cubs the option to either trade him midseason or collect draft picks on him after the 2010 season. After hitting .282 with 9 home runs for the A's and Twins, he could receive an annual salary around 5 million dollars.

In the event that the Cubs don't make a move for a middle infielder, expect to see the Cubs work a middle infield tandem with Ryan Theriot, Jeff Baker, Mike Fontenot, Andres Blanco, Aaron Miles, Bobby Scales, and maybe even Darwin Barney.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Diamondbacks 5, Cubs 2: There never is any end to summer

soco — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:33:05 -0000

It's the end for the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Well, it's a win.

Our Arizona Diamondbacks end the season by winning the final game and the series, but the Cubs never really put up much during the afternoon. It wasn't a game that was anything but an expression of pride, with neither team going to the playoffs, and everyone on the field seemed ready to be getting on with things.

It was a display of the Three True Outcomes, with the two squads combining for 22 strike outs and each scoring at least half their runs by the long ball. Some of the calls may have been questionable at the plate, but who can blame the umps for wanting to head home, too? Not that the players argued much; it's the last day before summer vacation, and no one cares what the teacher assigns.

The first couple innings were largely quiet, with the two teams trading scoreless innings. The Cubs were the first to get a base runner with Derrek Lee getting a single in the bottom of the first with two outs. Jake Fox promptly struck out on four pitches. He might have been inspired by the D’backs’ top of the first effort: both Stephen Drew and Justin Upton struck out, the latter on his way to four strike out day.

The second inning featured more of the same, with the Diamondbacks looking inept and the Cubs stranding a single from Jeff Baker. The third inning, however, the boys in Sedona Red would strike. Chad Tracy, in perhaps his last game with the Diamondbacks, doubled to fairly shallow left. So Taguchi appeared at first to have made the catch, and that was the way it was called. Perhaps it was luck, but he didn't attempt to pretend he caught the ball and rifled it to second, where Tracy had huffed his way. After a short deliberation, the call was reversed and Tracy had a double, if perhaps a slightly unorthodox one. It didn't seem that he would be advanced, however, with Augie Ojeda, also perhaps in his last game for Arizona, flying out to center and Doug Davis striking out on a pitiful bunt attempt. Stephen Drew, however, would not be denied, and scorched a ball to left. Tracy scored easily, and Taguchi’s errant throw allowed Drew to advance to second.

It looked like so much fun Gerardo Parra decided to join in, who fouled off a couple pitches before driving Drew in with a single to center. Upton would then add to his collection of strike outs for the afternoon, but the Diamondbacks were up 2-0.

To the third. Doug Davis, yet another player that might not be here next year and who had had up to that point a solid game, began to come unglued. Sam Fuld, perhaps the poster child for the disconnect between individual offensive production and the worth of RBIs, would take one strike before hustling to second for a double to lead off the inning. He was then subsequently moved to third by a sacrifice by Ryan Dempster, who was trying to help his own cause for the day. With one out, it seemed certain he would score, and Ryan Theriot tried his best. As a napkin lazily rolled across the infield, he would peck a ball to Davis’ right, who promptly picked it up and caught Fuld in a pickle between home and third. Theriot would sneak to second during the excitement, and although he would get advanced to third on a Davis wild pitch, there he would stay as Davis Houdini shed his shackles by forcing Lee into a grounder. The Diamondbacks were out of the jam.

Miguel Montero would start things off in the top of the fourth with a single, and then be quickly moved to third with a Mark Reynolds double. The stage was set for the suddenly resurgent Chris Young, who picked out a three wood and drove a shot to left center, which would effectively be all the Diamondbacks would need for the day to be triumphant.

At this point it was strike outs and a halfhearted attempt by the Cubs to salvage the last game of 2009. They would cut the lead to 5-1 with a solo home run by Fuld, who, as noted by Jim, who has dubious distinction of going the most career plate appearances without an RBI by a non-pitcher. He trails only Gene Good, who had 135 without an RBI for the 1906 Boston Beaneaters. The second RBI was considerably easier to come by as he sacrificed Reed Johnson in to score in the bottom of the seventh. 5-2 was the score, and 5-2 it would remain.

A few notes on the remaining three innings: the Diamondbacks had no trouble with the eighth, perhaps an attempt to deny there ever was a problem this season with that inning. Eric Byrnes, one of a half a dozen or more players to be looking at the search for a new team, popped out. In perhaps the most “fuzzy feeling” moment, however, came to end the Diamondbacks’ ninth inning. Upton came to the plate with two outs and Parra standing at second., batting average sitting at .300 square. An out would bring it down to .2998, technically a .300, and the record books might never notice the difference. Parra, however, was looking out for his outfield comrade. As Upton took a ball, he would take off for first, daring the catcher to throw him out. Geovany Soto obliged, and .300, true .300, non-qualified .300 was saved. AJ Hinch may have had the bitter beer face for the act, but Upton obviously appreciated it, giving Parra a hug as the game ended.

And really, it's this type of moment that reaffirms what's great about sports. Sure, who doesn't want to be a winner? But this human element, where a friend did a selfless act for a friend, transcends home runs or stolen bases. This completely unscripted moment is free of the framing that often makes equal scenes in fiction seem saccharine and hollow. It won't be recorded in books, or compiled in any highlight reel. Many of us might forget it as the years drive forward, or never pass it on. But it will remain.

So maybe 2009 wasn't a successful season. They often aren't. The Diamondbacks built something here today, this year. We, as fans, built something here. We won't know what it is, not until long after the winter comes. But the summer will keep rolling on, long green meadows with dusty infields where heroes hit long, long home runs, make diving catches, come back to the game after seeming to lose everything, and help each other to .300.

[Click to see full graph at fangraphs.com]

Master of his domain: Doug Davis +27.9

Also present: Gerardo Parra +10.7

Well, not everyone is Babe Ruth: Doug Davis (batting) -5.6

Mr. Golden Sombrero: Justin Upton -4.7

A fairly serene and talkative GDT, with 14 users generating 500 comments. Only one broke the century mark, and I hear he's pretty much the most awesome dude ever. Also present: Azreous, unnamedDBacksfan, snakecharmer, Fiona, hotclaws, Jim McLennan, pygalgia, kishi, NASCARbernet, Wailord, 4 Corners Fan, Giannaros, Wimb.

That's it for the Diamondbacks officially. From this point on we shoot without a script, make for uncharted territory, and yada yada yada. Stay tuned for lots of off-season coverage, ranging from analysis of players or team statistical subsets, to a report from the year 1860, investigative reporting about the new Spring Training site, a lament against the worship of amateur sport, and more! Until then, I'm your host, soco, saying goodnight.

Only 133 days until pitchers report.

Pirates Sweep Split-Squad Games From Cubs, 4-0 And 8-2

Al — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 13:00:56 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

When Micah Hoffpauir and Sam Fuld couldn't come up with this fly ball, we should have known Game 2 wasn't going to turn out well.

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The lineup for game one yesterday read like the list of players the Cubs send to Tucson every spring to play the Rockies. You know, because the regulars don't want to ride the bus for two hours.

They played like they had ridden that bus, too, getting shut out 4-0 by the Pirates and Charlie Morton, a guy they had scored ten runs off of on August 14 before he could even register more than three outs. On a sunny but chilly afternoon when the announced attendance was 34,362, no more than about 13,000 entered Wrigley Field. For the first time that any of us could remember, the Cubs actually closed off the center-field bleachers with yellow caution tape, reminiscent of the days in the 1960's and 1970's when the Cubs wouldn't open the upper deck on weekdays when they expected small crowds. This practice ended after 1981 when the Cubs stopped selling general admission tickets in the main part of the ballpark. (See below the fold for a photo.) The announced attendance, based on the number of tickets sold, put Cubs attendance past 3 million (3,056,781 with four dates remaining) for the sixth straight year. The Cubs will need to put together a good offseason to do that again in 2010.

Ted Lilly didn't throw badly in the first game -- that is, after the first inning, when all four Pirates runs crossed the plate. Some questionable defense didn't help -- Bobby Scales, who again I remind Lou is not an outfielder, pulled up short on Lastings Milledge's looping line drive, allowing it to bounce in front of him. Then he nearly got Garrett Jones having taken too long a turn past second base; if this play had worked, Steve Pearce's ground ball on the next at-bat would have ended the inning with only one run scoring. Instead, Jason Jaramillo followed with a double to the LF corner, on which Jake Fox made a Jacque Jones-like throw to the infield, allowing Jaramillo to take third. Didn't really matter, as .225-hitting Brian Bixler drove him in.

And that was it -- the Triple-A lineup the Cubs sent up in game one managed only four singles, three walks and a hit batsman off Morton and got only three runners past first base; the last of those, Scales, took second on defensive indifference with two out in the ninth.

The weather for the night game (announced attendance 33,299; actual count in the park about 17,000) was colder than Tuesday night's and so were the Cubs' bats. The presence of Derrek Lee, who had two hits and a walk, made it a little less split-squaddy, but D-Lee appeared to still be bothered by his left foot, the one he fouled a ball off of on Tuesday night. It appeared that Lee's first-inning single might have gone far enough for him to reach second base, but he pulled up fairly slowly going into first, not wanting to risk any further injury on a chilly evening. We are told that Aramis Ramirez is going to play "sparingly" the rest of the year, which I'd read as "he won't play at all unless the weather warms up", which it probably won't. A-Ram gutted out half a season -- 80 games -- worth of very good performance considering the serious injury he suffered, and now he needs to rest up and be 100% for 2010. It appears he won't need surgery, which is good news.

Carlos Zambrano made it through six innings in his final 2009 start and didn't pitch too badly, but didn't have his best command. He walked four and two of them scored in a third inning where he couldn't manage to get that third out. One run had already scored when Z struck out Milledge, but Brandon Moss followed with a two-run single, and that, as the saying goes, was that. The Cubs managed their second and final run of the night in the bottom of that inning when Z smacked a double to deep center field, advanced on a groundout by Sam Fuld and scored on a nicely executed sacrifice by Ryan Theriot, perhaps the best thing the Cubs did all day. Z also hit another deep fly ball to CF in the fourth that was caught by Andrew McCutchen. No other Cub hit anything as well as Z did in his two at-bats.

Last night I met BCB reader katie casey and her husband and son -- nice to meet you; wish you (and the rest of us) had been able to see even one win yesterday. The Cubs now need to win all four remaining games on this final 2009 homestand to have a winning decade (this particular decade defined as "the ten years comprising 2000-2009"). That's a worthy goal, and also an 86-76 record would be one game better than Lou's first season as manager in 2007.

Weather permitting -- and this forecast doesn't look too encouraging -- the Cubs and Pirates will finish off their season series tonight. The Cubs clinched second place in the NL Central last night when the Brewers lost to the Rockies; that's nice, but not the goal we were all seeking this season.

The CF bleachers were closed for game 1 on Wednesday. BCB photo by David Sameshima (click on photo to open a larger version in a new browser window

Start The 2010 Countdown: Cubs Eliminated, But Dempster Shines In 6-0 Shutout Of Pirates

Al — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Oustanding, Ryan, just outstanding.

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It looked for "just a hot minute", as Jack Brickhouse might have said 40+ years ago, that the Cubs would stave off elimination for another day. Ex-Cub Jason Kendall hit a one-out, three-run, game-tying homer for the Brewers against the Rockies in the ninth inning. Two innings later, though, the Rockies' Chris Iannetta hit a homer of his own, a two-run walkoff, and the Cubs' elimination number was reduced to zero.

Thus we begin "wait till next year" once again.

Thankfully, there are still a few games of Cubs baseball to enjoy for the rest of 2009 -- because you know you'll miss it when it's away for the winter -- and a few things yet to play for.

One of those goals was set by Ryan Dempster. He wants to throw 200 innings for the second straight season, and went a long way toward that goal with a masterfully pitched five-hit, 6-0 shutout of the Pirates. Dempster reached 195 innings with one start to go (on Sunday), lowered his ERA to 3.51 -- within range of the 2.96 he had last year -- and threw his first CG shutout since he was a member of the Marlins on July 3, 2001. It was the Cubs' second shutout in four games, and the first thrown by a Cubs pitcher at Wrigley Field since Jason Marquis blanked, coincidentally, the Pirates on May 9, 2007. Odd notes from that game: only one Pirate who played that day remains on the club (Ryan Doumit), and Marquis' opponent that night was current Cub Tom Gorzelanny (John Grabow, who came over from Pittsburgh with Gorzelanny, also pitched in that game).

Dempster was outstanding. Though he gave up two doubles, both leading off innings, those runners were stranded and only one other Pirate (Brandon Moss, who walked and went to third on a Delwyn Young single in the second inning) made it past first base. Dempster threw 120 pitches (81 strikes), which wasn't even his highest total of the season (he threw 121 against the Brewers in a 12-6 loss on May 9) and had the Pirates under control all night.

Meanwhile, the Cubs were taking advantage of Kevin Hart's wildness -- something he exhibited even when he was throwing fairly well in his four Cub starts before the trade to Pittsburgh -- and some shoddy Pirates defense in putting six runs on the board off Hart in the first four innings. The Pirates made three errors, all of them on what appeared to be routine plays, helping the Cubs score two unearned runs out of the six. The Cubs drew seven walks in all, four by Ryan Theriot -- who was an excellent leadoff man last night, reaching base all five times he was at bat. (That's not an endorsement of Theriot for leadoff -- I still believe the job should go to Kosuke Fukudome -- just a note that he did a good job yesterday.)

The win clinched a winning season for the Cubs with their 82nd win. That's the first time the Cubs have had three consecutive winning seasons in 37 years, since 1970-71-72. And it's the first time they have done so in a manager's first three years in 74 years, since the 1933-34-35 Cubs had three straight winning years in Charlie Grimm's first three seasons as manager. There remain other personal goals besides Dempster's 200 innings; Carlos Zambrano goes today for win #10 to finish in double figures, and Sam Fuld still seeks his first major league RBI (only two players, both 100+ years ago, had more plate appearances in a season than Fuld has now -- 103 -- without an RBI). I'd like to see Tyler Colvin get some more playing time in the final six games, too.

Last night's announced crowd was 35,308. That brought the season paid attendance to 2,989,120, so today's first-game attendance will put them past the 3 million mark for the sixth straight year. Last night's opponent, the chilly weather, and postseason chances being basically over kept the in-house count to what appeared to be about 15,000. The bleachers were about half-full (maybe 2500) and the rest of the park about one-third occupied, many of whom left after the seventh-inning stretch. The Cubs will have to make definitive moves to improve the team, and in my opinion not raise ticket prices, to keep drawing in 2010 the way they have the last three seasons.

The first game of today's split doubleheader begins at 1:05 pm CDT -- the first time a game has started at that time at Wrigley Field that I can remember. The game preview thread will be up at 11:30 am CDT.

Fantasy Baseball: Top 10 NL Shortstops in 2010

raygu — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

5 months ago: Arizona Diamondbacks' Stephen Drew connects for a triple as San Diego Padres catcher Eliezer Alfonzo waits for the ball in the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, July 7, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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I compared the Phillies Jimmy Rollins to the Rockies Troy Tulowitzki on Saturday. Today I look at the top 10 NL shortstops for 2010 with their stats through 9/26/2009. You may be surprised with a few of my rankings.

Player	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	KO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG
Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA	560	100	195	41	24	105	58	97	26	0.348	0.414	0.554
Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL	521	94	150	24	30	86	69	110	18	0.288	0.368	0.537
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI	647	96	158	40	20	75	41	69	30	0.244	0.289	0.411
Reyes, Jose B. SS NYM	147	18	41	7	2	15	18	19	11	0.279	0.355	0.395
Escobar, Yunel SS ATL	498	84	149	26	14	74	54	59	4	0.299	0.377	0.440
Tejada, Miguel SS HOU	603	76	186	44	13	81	18	48	5	0.309	0.337	0.449
Cabrera, Everth SS SD	358	57	93	18	2	31	44	84	24	0.260	0.344	0.366
Theriot, Ryan SS CHC	582	79	167	20	7	53	47	91	21	0.287	0.344	0.375
Drew, Stephen SS ARI	503	68	130	27	12	60	49	83	5	0.258	0.321	0.431
Furcal, Rafael SS LA	594	91	159	28	9	45	58	87	10	0.268	0.333	0.377

The Marlins Hanley Ramirez is a no-brainer as the top shortstop in the NL, or for all of baseball for that matter. Like I said on Saturday, there is plenty of speed at the shortstop position in 2009 and 2010, lead by Jimmy Rollins, the Mets Jose Reyes, the Padres Everth Cabrera and the Cubs Ryan Theriot. A couple guys not included in the top 10 are the Brewers Alcides Escobar, the Nationals Christian Guzman, and the Giants Juan Uribe.

There are 3 guys on this list that can give you 20-20 seasons in 2010, HanRam, Tulo and J-Roll. It remains to be seen how healthy the Mets Jose Reyes will be in 2010, as most of his value lies in his ability to steal bases. If Reyes cannot give an owner 35 stolen bases, he will probably stay in the top 5-6 NL shortstops. If he can return to the guy that steals 50-60 bases, he can jump to number 2 on the list.

A guy that I have my eye on is the Padres Everth Cabrera, who I have written about previously. I think he can steal 50 bases in a full season with the Padres in 2010. The Padres love his defense, and have already given him the green light to steal.

The Dodgers Rafael Furcal has disappointed roto owners in 2009. I traded him for closer Kevin Gregg in the UBA league. Furcal has only stolen 10 bases in 2009, a big dropoff from the usual 25-30 he gave owners in the past. He does help in 5x5 leagues, as he has scored 91 runs this season, even though his OBP is only 0.333.

Another shortstop who has disappointed roto owners in 2009 is the Diamondbacks Stephen Drew. After hitting 70+ extra base hits in 2008, I jumped on his bandwagon, thinking he could be a top 3 shortstop in 2009. He rewarded me with a 12-60-.258 season.

WOW! I just noticed Jimmy Rollins OBP this season. .289!!! That. Is. Pitiful. I may re-consider his ranking come March 2010.

Poll

Who should take over Rollins spot as the number 3 shortstop in the NL in 2010?

Jose Reyes

58 votes

Yunel Escobar

18 votes

Everth Cabrera

11 votes

Stephen Drew

14 votes

101 votes | Poll has closed

Shark Homers, But Cubs Lose To Brewers; Milton Bradley "Apologizes"

Al — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:51:05 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Jeff Samardzija congratulated after his home run. He pitched well; perhaps there is hope for him for 2010.

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The CSN production crew showed, at one point during last night's telecast, video pointing out the differences in Jeff Samardzija's motion in his first, disastrous, start on August 12, and last night. Back in August he wasn't bringing the ball fully back, more or less "pushing" it to the plate; last night he had more of a full extension, hiding the ball behind his back briefly before delivery. The results were better; he gave up only five hits and a walk in five innings and threw 54 strikes in 82 pitches. He had good velocity (hitting 97 on the CSN and stadium speed pitch meters) and his breaking ball looked better; the lack of a good breaking pitch has been one of the biggest criticisms of Samardzija becoming a solid major league pitcher.

Unfortunately, two of those hits were home runs; the one by Prince Fielder came with a man on base and the homer Shark allowed to Jody Gerut was the difference in a 3-2 Cubs loss to the Brewers that reduced their elimination number to 4.

There's no shame in giving up a home run to Fielder; Samardzija became the 39th different pitcher to allow one to him this year. Gerut? Not so much, although the Chicago-area native has had a good September (.327/.377/.551, with 3 HR in 49 AB, two of the HR off Cubs pitching) in an attempt to let baseball people know that he'd like a job in 2010.

Meanwhile, Samardzija's HR cut the deficit to 2-1 and Bobby Scales' RBI double in the 7th made it 3-2 after Gerut's HR. But once again, the Cubs could not get a runner home from scoring position with less than two out; Scales did make it to third but Felipe Lopez made a nice catch of a floater that Ryan Theriot nearly got into right field, and that was the end of the Cubs' best chance to tie the game. Credit also must be given to Brewers' journeyman starter Chris Narveson, who struck out ten.

Unfortunately, the Milton Bradley merry-go-round continues for another day; yesterday he issued an apology for his recent actions in a written statement, which read:

"I chose Chicago as a free agent," Bradley said in a statement, "because I wanted to be part of finally bringing a championship to Cubs fans. I expected to have a great season and I am deeply disappointed by my performance and the team's struggles. I played every game with everything that I had and wanted to desperately win.

"My frustration and disappointment boiled over and I said and did certain things that I regret," he said. "In hindsight, I wish that I had handled certain things differently and I apologize for those things that did not work out for the better.

"The air has been cleared," he said, "and we all want to move on and look forward to better days."

Wow. There's so much wrong with that statement that I can't even really begin to dissect it, except for this: it's yet another example of the 21st Century Celebrity Apology, which is vetted by a lawyer and carefully crafted to say nothing while appearing to apologize. Look at what he actually apologized for:

I apologize for those things that did not work out for the better.

What on Earth does that mean? No specifics, no people mentioned, no one specifically apologized to? All of a sudden "the air has been cleared"? I'm tired of seeing these sorts of apologies, which basically boil down to "I'm sorry you caught me being an idiot, please forgive me so I can keep making these enormous sums of money."

Here's what a real Milton Bradley apology should have looked like:

I truly did want to become a Chicago Cub to bring the team, the organization and the best fans in baseball the championship they have longed for, for over a century. My performance was beneath my own expectations for myself and I wish I had done better on the field and the team had won more games and we were headed to the playoffs.

Recently, I said some things to the Daily Herald's Bruce Miles that were said in anger and frustration and I want to apologize to those I offended.

I apologize to my teammates. I said I worked "harder" than anyone on the team. This is not true. Every single member of the Cubs works hard to better his performance and win, and I don't want them to think I didn't appreciate them as teammates. I am sorry.

I apologize to Jim Hendry. He put his faith in me by investing $30 million of the team's money for me to perform, and I let him down.

I apologize to the entire Cubs organization. I told Bruce Miles it wasn't a positive environment, and that they haven't won for 100 years because of "negativity". That certainly is not true of all the dedicated people on the coaching staff, the scouting staff, and the rest of the people who work hard every day in the office. They all want to win. I apologize to each and every one of them.

I apologize to the media. I'm a private person and sometimes I don't react well to some of the questions you ask. But that doesn't mean, as I told Bruce Miles, that you are "bashing" me. I know you have a job to do, just as I do. I am sorry.

I apologize to all Cubs fans. I wanted to win for you very badly, but I failed and because I was upset at myself, I took it out on you. There were a few bad fans who made nasty and uncalled-for remarks to me, but I don't want you to think that I believe you are all that way. I am sorry.

Now that would be a real apology and if Milton -- or, for that matter, any athete or celebrity caught doing wrong -- would issue such an apology, I think people would go a long way toward forgiving him.

But the "apology" he did issue? Nothing but cover-my-butt. The Cubs may have to eat a significant amount of Bradley's contract to move him, or possibly even release him and pay off the entire deal. It will be an expensive lesson learned for Jim Hendry -- who should have seen this coming -- and the organization as they move into the Tom Ricketts era.