SB Nation - Mike Fontenot

Non-Tendered Players Of Note

Sam Page — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Kelly Johnson--Since Mike Fontenot got a contract, Kelly Johnson is my new guy. He's got all the makings of a good bench-guy: left-handed and defensively versatile. As a secondbaseman, Johnson has the bat for the position, but a suspect glove, basically what you might expect from the Daniel Murphy 2B project that never was, and not my dream replacement for Castillo. Still, given his nice combination of discipline and power, "platooning" him with Castillo and using him to spell Francoeur versus the occasional righty would be effective. If the Mets sign KJ, I predict he takes Castillo's job no latter than June.

Matt Capps--Capps will never live up to the closer billing he inherited in Pittsburgh, but he has consistently posted xFIPs ~4.00 since making it to the majors. An inconsistent fastball lead to Capps getting tagged for a lot of homers last year, but I guarantee, with a more liberal budget, the Pirates held onto this guy. The Mets have some holes to fill in their pen, and they could do (and probably will do) a lot worse than Capps.

Jack Cust--I'm torn. If a team gets Jack Cust to accept a bench role, there won't be a better lefty pinch-hitter in the majors. That said, Cust will probably look for a DH job elsewhere, and the last-in-UZR Mets might want to look for another type of fourth "outfielder."

Ryan Garko--Mets fans are already clamoring for Ryan Garko as the perfect platoon-mate for Daniel Murphy. He has a .885 OPSvL and a reasonable 1.17 platoon ratio, so the ability to hit lefties is real. Garko, however, has no other attractive talents. He can't field, play anything but first, hit righties, or run. Keeping him on the bench just to relieve Murphy against lefties isn't a very productive use of a roster spot, especially since Manuel will end up pinch-hitting him against righties too often. If anyone wants to convince me Garko is more deserving of a roster spot than Nick Evans, who hits lefties nearly as well, with the added ability to play outfield and emergency catcher, good luck.

As an aside, I'm still perturbed at how easily Mets fans accept this Daniel Murphy-platoon garbage as a good plan at firstbase. What if the Bears are who we thought they were, and Daniel Murphy reprises his role as the worst offensive firstbaseman in the league? What if Ike Davis isn't the super-star of the future? As fans, we often don't realize just how possible these outcomes are. Here's a novel idea I threw out earlier: go get a real firstbaseman. Anyone? No? All I'm saying is, if the Phillies acquire Roy Halladay, I think the only reasonable--no, patriotic--thing to do is trade the farm for Adrian Gonzalez.

Garret Atkins--Although a incentive-laden deal would be tempting, I still have trouble finding where Atkins would fit on the bench. He's basically Ryan Garko with more upside, but also considerably larger and more likely downside.

Ryan Langerhans--The Mariners replaced Endy Chavez with Ryan Langerhans and the Mariners are smart, so let's do that too. Good BB% and decent power make for a league-average hitter with tremendous defensive ability.

Request any I skipped, and I might add them.

Cubs close to deal with Mike Cameron?

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:37:48 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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The Chicago Sun-Times is reporting that the Cubs' top option for center field is free agent Mike Cameron. Piniella and Cameron have history going back to their time in Seattle together, and there is believed to be mutual interest in a reunion.

''I love the guy,'' Piniella said Friday night in Cincinnati during a reunion event for the 1990 World Series champions at the annual Redsfest. ''Mike is somebody we've talked about. I'm looking forward to Sunday, [when team officials meet before] the meetings over in Indianapolis.''

However, the Cubs need to unload Milton Bradley first, and are hoping to move him before the Winter Meetings kick off on Monday. That way, there will be enough money to ink Cameron.

Cameron would give the Cubs an option in the two spot or in the five spot, based upon where he hit last year. He strikes out a lot, but he gives the Cubs another run producer who has a great feel for the outfield. His addition would push Kosuke Fukudome back to right field.

A Cubs lineup with Cameron would look something like this:

Mike Cameron

Kosuke Fukudome

Jeff Baker/Mike Fontenot

A pretty dangerous lineup on paper if guys like Soto and Soriano can return to form. Sources say the Cubs are not exploring the second base market, but guys like Felipe Lopez are still available.

The team is also looking at outfielder Marlon Byrd.

MLB Trade Rumors: Curtis Granderson to the Cubs for Starlin Castro?

raygu — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 16:00:28 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

2 months ago: Detroit Tigers' Curtis Granderson rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Minnesota Twins in the eighth inning of Game 2 of a baseball doubleheader Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Detroit. The Tigers defeated the Twins 6-5. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

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Yesterday Phil Rogers from the Chicago Tribune confirmed that the Cubs are indeed interested in trading for the Tigers outfielder Curtis Granderson. Here's a snippet:

A source close to the Cubs said Friday that general manager Jim Hendry "absolutely" is interested in offering a prospect-heavy package of players if Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski decides to trade the 28-year-old Illinois-Chicago product.

According to the source, Hendry and Dombrowski spoke about Granderson and other Tigers players during the GM meetings earlier in the week at the O'Hare Hilton.

Rogers goes on to mention that the Cubs highly rated prospect SS Starlin Castro could be one of the main pieces in a deal for Granderson:

A Cubs offer could be built around 19-year-old shortstop Starlin Castro, who is emerging as one of the top prospects in the minors. Third baseman Josh Vitters, 19-year-old Korean shortstop Hak-Ju Lee and minor league pitching from a group including Andrew Cashner, Jay Jackson and Chris Carpenter also could be part of deal.

Rogers also mentions that the Cubs could offer 3B/OF Jake Fox or Mike Fontenot in the deal for Granderson as well. Fox would make a perfect DH for the Tigers, or any other AL team for that matter.

Should the Cubs deal for Granderson, I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to deal 3B prospect Josh Vitters before offering Castro, as it appears that Castro could be closer to the big leagues than Vitters is. Then again, I am sure Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski prefers a major league ready prospect in return for Granderson.

Poll

Should the Tigers ask for Starlin Castro or Jake Fox/Josh Vitters in a deal for Curtis Granderson?

Castro-he's close to being ready

191 votes

Fox/Vitters

215 votes

406 votes | Poll has closed

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

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Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Sam's 2010 Offseason Plan

Sam Page — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 11:00:30 -0000

Take this post for what it is, subject to change and wishful thinking. I intended this plan to be realistic in the sense that all the trades and signings are possible, but not realistic in that I think it's what the Mets will actually do--that's another post for another time. So without further ado:

The Major Moves:

Sign Matt Holliday to a 6/$110 Million contract, starting salary $17MM--Maybe he will only sign for five years, but I think at age 36 he would still be at least an adequate outfielder given his skillset. I already made most of the case for Holliday here, but especially in a year where the Mets have a protected first round pick, he seems like a perfect fit. Jason Bay will be a DH in a few years, given how precipitously his fielding has declined. He's an acceptable backup plan, only if he'll take significantly fewer years, which he probably won't. The way Mets fans deified non-entities like Xavier Nady makes me think a they'll go crazy having a legitimately great corner-outfielder for the first time in a long time
Trade Bobby Parnell and Wilmer Flores to the Rays for Carlos Peña--I don't understand why Mets fans think it is smart or even efficient to resign firstbase to being played by someone like Daniel Murphy, if we sign Matt Holliday. It's not like the Mets were just middle-of-the-pack offensively last year, they were bottom of the barrel. With the largest payroll in the National League, why not try and fill all the team's holes with at least players who are average or better at their position? The Rays are motivated to sell Peña, being in his walk-year and making $10.5MM. They have a few a infielders on their bench, who could start on most teams (Aybar, Rodriguez), so they'll be most interested in a cheap set-up caliber reliever. Parnell fits that description easily--he's still making league minimum and posted a 3.80 tRA in the bullpen his rookie season. Wilmer Flores makes up the difference in value; he's the kind of super-athletic shortstop prospect the Rays love to hoard. For the Mets, Pena solves the "not enough homers" problem; he tied Mark Teixeira for the AL homerun crown, despite missing nearly all of September with a fractured hand. He has elite plate-discipline and the batting average will probably rebound a bit. If healthy, Peña is also an above-average defender and could easily be worth 4 WAR over a full season.
Sign Rich Harden to a 1-year/$10 million contract with incentives and a mutual option for a second season--See the above link on Matt Holliday for why I also don't want John Lackey. The best way to not get locked into bad contracts is to not give them. A one year deal to Rich Harden is the type of gamble a team with the Mets payroll should take. He's injury prone, having pitched just 140 innings the last two seasons, but in just 140 innings he can be worth 4+ WAR. He was just 1.8 WAR this season according to fangraphs, but that was due to bad luck with homers, which is reflected by his xFIPs being extremely consistent from year-to-year. Any argument to sign Lackey instead of Harden proves how overrated past durability is with pitchers. Coupling Harden with a good above-replacement contingency plan(s) likely costs less than Lackey, is incredibly more valuable than Lackey, will likely provide more innings than Lackey, and doesn't carry the huge risk of giving an injury prone pitcher in his 30s a multi-year contract.
Trade Jeff Francoeur to the Cubs for Mike Fontenot.--The Cubs will eventually dump Milton Bradley, and will look to replace him with an "RBI-guy" in rightfield. RBI's are Jeff Francoeur's specialty. Mike Fontenot magically amassed 3 WAR in under 250 plate appearances in 2007. In 2008, the Cubs gave him more responsibility then leaned toward trading him when his batting average sunk. As mentioned in that article, they still view him as trade bait. With such high BABIPs in past seasons, his batting average will likely rebound. I'd bet his true skill is somewhere in between .296 wOBA player of last year, or the .395 wOBA player of the year before, maybe the league average hitter of 2006. Even if he is only an average hitter, though, his fantastic defense (9.6 UZR/150) will make him more valuable than Castillo. Having a good defensive secondbaseman will be even more important with the young groundball pitchers Pelfrey and Niese in the rotation next year.

The Minor Moves:

Sign Carl Pavano 1 year/$6 million dollar contract--Pavano will likely half to accept another short-term commitment, because of his surface numbers and lingering injury concerns, but he actually pitched quite well last season. His 4.00 FIP reflects all-around good peripherals, consistent with his career numbers. Citi Field might help suppress his high HR/FB%, and a move to the National League can only help his strikeouts. At 3.7 WAR last season, he would have easily been the most valuable pitcher on the Mets. He'll likely be the best value on the market, and would solidify a rotation with a lot injury risk.
Sign Kiko Calero 2 years/$5 million dollar contract--Calero quietly posted a 2.38 tRA this season. Here's a pretty good summary on his attractiveness as a free agent, if 2.38 didn't convince you. He would be a definite upgrade over Parnell. I see him signing with the team that offers a multi-year deal.
Sign Adam Everett 1 year/$1 million--Here, I want a player that can step in and start, without dragging the whole team down with his poor play, if Jose's injuries become complicated. His defense isn't what it used to be but it's still great.
Sign Greg Zaun 1 year/$800,000--I waffled on this, but Omir Santos needs to go back to the minors. He's a minor league player who can't hit anything but fastballs, and pitchers will make the adjustment eventually. Zaun provides plate discipline and defense that is negligibly worse than Santos' and somewhat better than Bengie Molina's. Thole may be an adventure in the field, but if it gets too bad, Zaun has the bat to be a starter, without costing Molina-money.
Sign Endy Chavez 1 year/$1.5 million--Our hero. He's like Adam Everett for the outfield! He'll be coming off surgery, so it probably would not even cost this much to sign him. Even if he's lost a step, he's eons better than Francoeur in the field, so much better suited for a bench role.
Sign Shawn Hill 1 year/$400K--He was recently released by the Padres, but he's got a 4.11 career FIP. He's injury prone, but keeping both him and Maine around is a pretty good insurance plan for an already filled-out rotation.
Sign Mike Sweeney 1 year/$600K--Sweeney got his PhD in fixing fractured, mutli-cultural clubhouses from the 2009 Mariners (not that those things are necessarily related, or exactly describe the Mets). Anyone who liked Francoeur for his attitude will love Sweeney. His skills as a right-handed platoon bat are redundant with Nick Evans also around, but he'd be brought in just as much for his intangibles than abilities.
Sign Kelvim Escobar to a 1 year contract with incentives/max value $2.5 million--The former Angels ace is on the recovery path and would add dimension to the pitching staff as a cheap, worthwhile gamble in the bullpen.
Trade Luis Castillo to the Royals for virtually nothing--I'd bet they'd take him. Getting rid of Castillo is a priority, as I think he is a huge risk to totally bust in 2010. His continuing diminished range caps his value at ~1.5 WAR, and indicates his knees really aren't getting any better. He compensated for the lack of speed last year by taking an absurd amount of pitches and hitting a career-high percentage of line drives. There's no reason to expect him to repeat either of those feats in 2010. Sell high.

Overall thoughts:

On the hitting side, the lineup has patience, power, speed, and contact skills without any obvious holes. Never watching that squad would I think, "here's Santos-Cora-Valdez, 1-2-3." The bench re-emphasizes defense, something severely lacking from last year's backups, and features all players good enough to start on some team, but who aren't expecting starting jobs. Of the 26 players listed, 8 could be considered rotation candidates, which gives flexibility on who makes the opening-day roster and in case of an injury, no Pat Misches or Livan Hernadezes have to start. There's no obviously crappy reliever who fits in under the guise of "long man" but has no other usefulness or upside. Most importantly, this roster allows the AAA class of prospects (Davis, Martinez, Mejia, and Holt) to stay in AAA as depth options or emergency trade candidates, in case Harden, Pavano, Maine, and Hill all blow out their elbows. I could see 95 wins, and with good health, the upside for much more. Now go wild with your own proposals.

Friday Roundup: All the links fit to print

davoag — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:32:33 -0000

More photos » by Bob Levey - AP

Happy trails, Doug Brocail.

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What's that, you say...a discussion question and a links post, all in the same day? How do you find the time?

I'll answer that with a question of my own: It's Friday...would you rather be researching and writing an incisive and well-informed piece about something, or plowing through Season Three of LOST while at work and throwing together a couple of interesting posts where other people do the majority of the work?

Really? You'd choose the insight? Huh...

At any rate, here's a rundown of the day's interesting Astros news:

First, and most pertinent to the Astros, Doug Brocail's option was declined today, meaning he will be a free agent. As the story indicates, retirement is a possibility for him. No big loss for the bullpen and hopefully Drayton will spend the money elsewhere.

Here's a really interesting piece by Beyond the Box Score on the economy and free agency. Looking at the conclusions from this, it's kind of hard to buy Drayton's rhetoric about keeping the payroll down because of how the economy is performing, no?

One more link before getting into the Free Agency Speculation Hour...here's a long, yet cool documentary on the Hall of Fame as a museum. I've been to two different exhibits with material from the HOF; one was at the Museum of Fine Arts and one was at the Bush Library. Both were very neat and well-done. I've never been to Cooperstown myself, but hopefully once my little spud is a bit older, we can go enjoy it for the first time together.

So, now for a few stories where we speculate on the Astros offseason goals:

This story out of Denver talks about possibilities for Garrett Atkins. Given the discussion in the comments about the Astros and Orioles wanting similar types of players, could the Astros be interested in Atkins too? His home/road splits have been pretty terrible, but if they can get him on the cheap, is he worth taking a flier on?

Adam Kennedy is another interesting candidate for the swing infielder position the Astros need. He hit fairly well in the American League, so it's safe to say that while he'll be a year older and that his sample size wasn't that big in 2009, he'd have a good chance to maintain that level. At 4+ million, he's also not as expensive as some options and may take a one or two year deal.

Two trade possibilities that intrigue me are Kenshin Kawakami for the Braves and Mike Fontenot of the Cubs. Kawakami is owed more money that the Astros probably want to spend, but he was very good last season and doesn't really have a fit in the Atlanta rotation. Plus, the Braves have a couple other minor league arms that could be ready by next season, so they don't have to worry about depth. Would they take one of the Astros outfielders for Kawakami? Maybe even a guy like Koby Clemens?

As for Fontenot, he's cheap but doesn't really have a home with the Cubbies. I like his versatility and the fact that he had a higher road split than home the past two seasons shows he could probably succeed away from Wrigleyville. I also like his versatilty; he could play third passably and could fill in for Matsui when Kaz eventually gets hurt.

Just some things to think about...hope everyone has a good Halloween!

Bill James Handbook 2010 Projections

Al — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:11:01 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Will Magglio Ordonez be a Cub in 2010?

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With a day off before game six of the ALCS -- and this series has the chance to go down in history as one of the better league championship series, having already produced at least three "instant classics", let's spend today looking toward next year.

As most of you probably already know, ACTA Sports publishes, each year, the Bill James Handbook, which in addition to having complete stats for all players active in 2009, publishes projections for the following season based on a projection system that they are continually tweaking to attempt to make it as accurate as possible.

The good folks at ACTA sent me an advance copy of the projection pages from the handbook, in which Bill James first runs down the projections they did for 2009; some of them were missed badly (mostly due to injury -- Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus, for example), others (Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson and Evan Longoria are the examples they give) were pretty darn close. They projected Mike Fontenot to have 9 HR and 43 RBI -- exactly what he did have, except they thought he'd hit .288, instead of the .236 he actually hit. For Geovany Soto, they missed badly -- the James system had him at .289, with a .499 SLG, 35 doubles, 23 HR and 89 RBI. I think you can imagine how much better the Cubs' season would have been if they had been right about Geo.

Continue after the jump to find some of their projections for 2010. I'm not only going to post a few of the projections for Cubs players that they sent me, but also some projections for some of the possible acquisitions we have discussed here at BCB, mainly some of the hitters that have been talked about in potential Milton Bradley deals. (Note: doing this doesn't mean I'm endorsing any particular acquisition, simply posting some numbers for players we've speculated about.)

Let's start with a few players we know are going to be Cubs in 2010:

Derrek Lee: .291/.378/.516, 40 doubles, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 94 runs
Aramis Ramirez: .292/.364/.514, 32 doubles, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 76 runs
Alfonso Soriano: .263/.320/.487, 35 doubles, 30 HR, 77 RBI, 85 runs
Kosuke Fukudome: .265/.365/.427, 39 doubles, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 76 runs
Geovany Soto: .273/.361/.469, 31 doubles, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 58 runs

Well. If those come true, the Cubs will score a ton of runs in 2010; that's 389 runs from just five players. Now, some of the starting rotation -- acknowledging, as James points out, that pitcher projections are done very differently than hitter projections due to the nature of pitching statistics:

Carlos Zambrano: 29 starts, 180 IP, 80 BB, 151 K, 12-8, 3.60
Ryan Dempster: 30 starts, 195 IP, 81 BB, 167 K, 12-10, 3.83
Ted Lilly: 25 starts, 170 IP, 56 BB, 144 K, 11-8, 3.76
Randy Wells: 30 starts, 188 IP, 60 BB, 147 K, 10-10, 4.16 
Carlos Marmol: 74 games, 73 IP, 45 BB, 84 K, 5-3, 3.45, 34 saves

And, apparently, give up a ton of runs and finish barely over .500. For some reason, they also project Wells to have 14 HBP and 19 other major league pitchers to have 15 or more -- that seems way off, considering that only one pitcher (Dave Bush) had 15 in 2009 and that Wells himself had only 6 HBP in the season just ended.

Now, here are some projections for some -- not all -- of the players we have discussed here as possible 2010 new Cubs, enough to get some discussion going:

Magglio Ordonez: .311/.376/.476, 32 doubles, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 70 runs
Curtis Granderson: .275/.353/.491, 30 doubles, 11 triples, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 106 runs, 17 SB
Michael Young: .299/.352/.443, 37 doubles, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 88 runs
Vernon Wells: .271/.327/.443, 33 doubles, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 77 runs
Aaron Rowand: .267/.327/.423, 37 doubles, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 74 runs
Carlos Beltran: .282/.375/.490, 33 doubles, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 92 runs
Mark DeRosa: .260/.335/.418, 27 doubles, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 76 runs

And, because you'll ask:

Milton Bradley: .276/.384/.450, 25 doubles, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 74 runs

James' system projects Bradley to play 133 games and have 467 AB; both of those would be the second-highest totals of his career. Note also that (presumably) the projections for players who the Cubs might acquire are based on their current home parks; playing with Wrigley Field as their home park would likely result in different projections.

There are complete projections in the book, which is available November 1 and which you can pre-order at the link at the top of this post -- we can discuss whatever players you want in this post, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time typing out projections for others, so don't ask. Full disclosure: ACTA Sports is sending me a copy of the book.

Sending A Shark After The Sweep: Cubs vs. Brewers Preview, Wednesday 9/23, 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 22:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Write your own caption.

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Over the last few days, I have posted a few "write your own caption" photos, and no one's really contributed one, due, I suppose, to being focused on other issues.

However, I think today's photo should result in quite a few good caption ideas. Fire away! I will choose what I think is the best one and send the poster a copy of the DVD "Chasing October". (Which, unfortunately, we are still doing.)

A few other baseball notes while we get ready for an attempt at the second Cubs series sweep this month (and both on the road, too):

Our old pal Brian Roberts -- remember him? -- needs five more doubles to have 60 this year. That's a milestone that has been reached only six times in baseball history and not since 1936, when the Tigers' Charlie Gehringer had 60 and the Cardinals' Joe Medwick had 64. The closest anyone has come since then was Todd Helton's 59 in 2000.
Attendance for many teams is down in the recession, so teams selling playoff tickets are pricing some of them at bargain levels.
Tiger Stadium is completely gone. Sad that they couldn't have found a way to preserve at least a small part of it.
I found Flip Flop Flyball via Rob Neyer's Sweet Spot (great stuff, Rob, and yes, I know, I found all the other links today at your blog, too). The Flip Flop Flyball guy makes cool and interesting charts and graphs -- here's one that's timely.

Lineup via Twittermyer:

Theriot, ss; Colvin, cf; Lee, 1b; Ramirez, 3b; Fox, lf; Baker, 2b; Johnson, rf; Soto, c; Samardzija, p

Today's Starting Pitchers


Jeff Samardzija Cubs	vs.	Chris Narveson Brewers

1-2	W-L	1-0
7.89	ERA	4.22
18	SO	27
14	BB	12
5	HR	6
vs. Mil	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Samardzija	1-2	19	1	0	0	0	0	29.2	41	26	26	5	14	18	7.89	1.85

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Chris Narveson	1-0	18	2	0	0	0	0	32.0	33	15	15	6	12	27	4.22	1.41

Jeff Samardzija is making his second major league start. The first one wasn't very good. Let's hope for improvement -- I really would like to see the Shark pitch well so he has a shot at the 2010 staff. He has never faced the Brewers.

Chris Narveson is the very definition of a journeyman. Originally drafted by the Cardinals in the 2nd round in 2000, he was traded to the Rockies in 2004 as part of the deal that brought Larry Walker to St. Louis. Then Colorado sent him to Boston for Byung-Hyun Kim. He was later waived by the Red Sox, claimed by the Cardinals who then let him go as a six-year free agent; the Brewers signed him before the 2008 season. In his minor league career he played for: Johnson City, Peoria (when it was a Cardinals affiliate), Potomac, Johnson City again, Peoria again, Palm Beach, Tennessee, Tulsa, Pawtucket, Memphis, Palm Beach again, Memphis again, Palm Beach and Memphis for a third time, and Nashville. Just think of the frequent-flyer (or maybe it's frequent-bus) miles. He has never started against the Cubs, but threw one inning of relief in each of three games at Wrigley Field in July, allowing a total of four hits and a run. Mike Fontenot was 2-for-3 against him with a double.

Today's game is again cable-only; CSN Chicago and FSN Wisconsin. For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

7 Back, 17 To Go: Cubs Nearly Done For Year After 7-4 Loss To Brewers

Al — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 22:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

The Cubs and Brewers honor Medal of Honor recipients before Thursday's game.

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And after all was said and done, it wasn't the grand slam by Jody Gerut that did the Cubs in, although that did give the Brewers a lead today that they never relinquished.

No, it was the little things, and Randy Wells acknowleged so in his postgame remarks: giving up a two-out hit to a pitcher who came into the game with a .100 (3-for-30) season batting average. That hit prolonged an inning that should have been over; Wells had retired the first two batters in the fourth inning easily, and seemed to have settled down after a shaky first inning. But then the #8 hitter, Alcides Escobar, walked; Bush singled; Wells, rattled, walked Felipe Lopez, and then Gerut hit the slam, only the second of his career.

It was a thrill for Gerut, I suppose; he was the 1995 Illinois High School Player of the Year for Willowbrook High, and he's struggled this year, coming into the game hitting only .215. For Wells, it was the most walks (five) he had given up in any one game this season (one intentional), and he also admitted in the postgame news conference that he had stopped doing what had made him successful earlier, attacking the zone, and was trying to nibble. Why pitchers do this, I have no idea; if something's working for you, why change it?

The Cubs lost to the Brewers 7-4, splitting a series they should have won and realistically needed to sweep to have any chance to get back into the thick of postseason contention. Now, nine games out of first place and seven games back in the wild-card race, they are in 2007 Phillies territory (the Phils made up 7.5 games in 17, but they had no one else in front of them), and I can see the numbers as well as anyone else can. It'd take a major miracle now.

The Cubs did do their best to get back into the game. Micah Hoffpauir pinch-hit for Wells in the bottom of the fourth and doubled in a pair of runs, making it 5-4 and at least giving the Cubs a shot at it, and Sean Marshall and Aaron Heilman threw scoreless innings. But the Cubs couldn't do more than two more baserunners the rest of the game, on a single by Milton Bradley and a walk to Mike Fontenot in the sixth. That put two runners on with one out, but Koyie Hill struck out and Aramis Ramirez, pinch-hitting on a day he was otherwise off, hit a ball that might have gone out had the wind not been blowing in strongly from right field.

You all know how I feel about Milton Bradley. But today really was the last straw for me. Bradley took himself out of the game after that sixth-inning single, claiming knee problems. He didn't seem to have any trouble in the field or any trouble running to first base. Maybe it's legitimate, but honestly, isn't this enough of this act? I've heard the same stories about Bradley when he was with Oakland -- taking himself out of games on a moment's notice on the flimsiest of excuses.

Enough. Bradley was a bad fit in Chicago from the beginning; his production, after taking a bit of an upswing in August, has collapsed again in September (.196/.226/.275 with zero walks in 53 plate appearances). Enough. If I were Lou, I'd bench him for the rest of the season. He's got to be traded -- to anyone who will take him. Go ahead, flame away, but that's how I feel. I'll talk after the season is over about how I think the Cubs should go about getting that LH bat they were looking for last offseason -- this wasn't the right way to do it.

Amusing: watching Prince Fielder pound around the bases for a triple after his ball got beyond Bradley to the wall in the fifth. It was, believe it or not, his third triple of the season. He may seem overweight and out of shape, but Fielder is an excellent athlete who runs the bases well. However, the Cubs might have to have Roger Bossard redo the field after the season due to that run. Fielder also was held RBI-less in the series; he's currently tied with current Houston manager Cecil Cooper for the Brewers' season record with 126 RBI. The Brewers are playing the Astros this weekend, so Cooper can see his record broken in person.

It's been a frustrating season; with four of the seven games remaining to be played in October, this might have been the last bit of nice summer-like weather we'll have for baseball on the north side of Chicago in 2009. It may not mean anything, but I do hope the Cubs can at least win the series in St. Louis this weekend. The Cubs are 5-8 vs. the Cardinals this year; if they can somehow sweep (yeah, I know, a pipedream), they'd even it up. That's a goal they can shoot for.

Cubs Ride Outstanding Starting Pitching To 2nd Win In Row, 2-0 Over Brewers

Al — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 12:36:57 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Great catch, Sam!

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One thing you cannot criticize about the 2009 Cubs is their starting pitching.

Cubs starters are riding 14 consecutive scoreless innings after Ryan Dempster threw eight superb frames in a 2-0 win over the Brewers. Combined with the Giants' 9-1 win over the Rockies, the Cubs crept to within 6.5 games of the wild-card lead with 20 games remaining.

Yes, I know it's still a longshot, uphill climb, whatever else on the cliché list you'd like to call it. But as long as there is still a chance for postseason play, I hope the Cubs play just the way they did last night -- because in general, outstanding pitching shuts down good hitting in October. The Cubs have had excellent performance out of their starting pitchers all year; last night's eight shutout innings from Dempster was the 86th quality start of the season, tied with the Braves for second in the NL, one behind the Rockies. (Comparison point: last year's 97-win Cub team had 84 quality starts the entire season.) And that's with having one starter (Randy Wells) play the first month of the year in Triple-A and the other four all having stints on the disabled list.

Carlos Marmol finished up with a scoreless inning for his 13th save. Though Marmol does have four blown saves this year, he has none since officially being named closer in mid-August. He did issue a walk, which appears typical for him this year; command and control will be things he'll have to work on in the offseason. I was reminded last night of the way Mitch Williams closed out games for the 1989 division champs; Williams walked 52 in 81.2 innings and saved 36 games despite a 1.51 WHIP (and ten blown saves!). Closing was a different animal in that era -- 20 of Williams' saves were more than one inning in length -- but maybe the Cubs have another pitcher who can close out games despite having imperfect command. Marmol, at least, rarely gives up hits, allowing only 38 hits (and only one home run) in 68.2 innings.

The game flew by (2:15, one minute longer than the shortest nine-inning game of the year on September 2) on a flawless 76-degree September evening, with almost no wind. I had to laugh at the boxscore description of the wind as "1 MPH"; how do they measure something that small? The flags weren't moving at all either on the roof of the ballpark or on the flagpoles on the scoreboard. Both pitchers, Dempster and Jeff Suppan, were inducing ground balls in the pitcher-friendly conditions; in the combined 15 innings (45 outs' worth) they threw, 28 outs were registered on the ground, including a pair of bunts by Suppan which were attempts for base hits -- a peculiar strategy for a pitcher who has a decent .175 lifetime batting average.

One of the outs not recorded on a ground ball was an outstanding, Web Gem catch by Sam Fuld, diving after a ball hit by Frank Catalanotto with the tying run on third base and two out in the fifth inning. Fuld may not have all the tools to play more than part-time in the major leagues, but he is an outstanding defensive player. After that inning the Brewers only managed a pair of singles, and the Cubs turned a rare 6-5-3 double play when they had the extreme RF shift on against Prince Fielder in the seventh.

Incidentally, I thought it was strange that Ryan Braun, who is healthy and was hit by a pitch as a PH in the eighth, didn't start last night. And it wasn't as if the Brewers were trying out a prospect in his place, either; Frank Catalanotto, who started in LF, is 35 and about as far from prospect status as... well, as Jody Gerut, who started in RF in place of Corey Hart (who, admittedly, is just coming back from an appendectomy). If the Brewers want to start their B-lineup the rest of this series, though, that's fine with me.

The Cubs' offense was provided by Derrek Lee's 33rd homer of the year and a nice sequence in the eighth inning; a leadoff pinch-hit double by Mike Fontenot (curiosity: all four of his pinch-hits in 2009 have been doubles), followed by a perfect Ryan Theriot sacrifice bunt and a deep fly ball from Kosuke Fukudome.

The Cubs are now 9-4 in September, having one of their best Septembers in recent years. While there is still a postseason chance, I'll keep up hope. (And it's always nice to beat the Brewers.) Go Cubs.