SB Nation - Cliff Floyd

What Have We Learned? A Brief History of a Non-Dynasty, Part 1

Mark Himmelstein — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 12:22:12 -0000

More photos » by KATHY WILLENS - AP

First things first, allow me to (re)introduce myself. Many of you, grizzled Amazin' Avenue vets that may be, are probably thinking "Who the hell is Mark Himmelstein?" Well, Mark Himmelstein is me, formerly known around these parts as Meddler. Eric Simon and co. have been generous enough to have me join the site's wonderful team of writers. I'm honored, and look forward to lamenting, and maybe one day even celebrating (please?), with the greatest community of Mets fans there is.

Just three short years ago, if you asked a Mets fan how they thought this team would be remembered once the decade was over, you probably would have heard words like "accomplishment," "chemistry," "dominance," and even "championship," without a hint of irony. After a 2006 season that included 97 wins and a trip to the NLCS, it was a success that seemed destined to go on forever. It didn't. And though for the next two seasons the team would continue to be better than most Major League Baseball teams, they would stay closer to the average than to the elite. This relative mediocrity made the process feel more like a tease than the triumph that was expected, despite the relative level of success. Now, after a 2009 season lost to plenty of bad luck and at least as many bad decisions, there aren't many straws left to grasp at. What went so wrong? Everything seemed to be lined up so nicely for a sustained run at success, even a shot at a dynasty. Two of the best young players in the game had just shot up through the farm system and the organization had the financial resources to match any other non-Yankee club in the league. Looking back on the events of the last half-decade, things clearly have not worked out as hoped.

The Mets began the Aughties with a bang. They made it all the way to first World Series since Y2K had officially not happened. Though they would flounder through the rest of the early part of the decade, it wasn't long before hope would rear its head again. There was some optimism brewing below the major league franchise. Finally, some talent coming up through the homegrown ranks. A young shortstop named Jose Reyes reached the majors the day before his 20th birthday and dazzled crowds with a stunning array of tools. Meanwhile, a third baseman from the 2001 draft class was starting to garner lots of attention in the upper levels of the minor leagues. In 2004, David Wright joined Jose Reyes on the major league roster, and it soon became clear that the two were destined to be the face of any and all efforts to revitalize a broken franchise.

2005 - The Beginning

Enter Omar Minaya. Taking over the General Manager position, Omar brought lots of promises to the table. Youth, athleticism, an "old school" mentality, and a willingness to aggressively shift the organization's financial weight around on the open market. Right away, he brought in one of the best pitchers in the game and one of the best outfielders the free agent market had seen in a long time: Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. Though the overhaul seemed as yet incomplete by the end of the 2005 season, the signs were encouraging. Here's a rundown of the final product (The less commonly referenced stats are linked to their glossaries):

Making Runs Happen

PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR%	HR/FB	XBH%	BB%	SO%	SB	CS	bRAA	RS
6146	.258	.322	.416	.334	2.8%	10.7%	7.9%	7.9%	17.5%	153	40	-7.0	722

Making Runs Not Happen

BF	ERA	FIP	tRA (SP)	tRA (RP)	SO%	BB%	HR%	pRAA	DE	PADE	UZR	RA
6121	3.77	4.00	4.27	4.22	16.5%	8.0%	2.2%	52.1	.701	1.50	-24.6	648

Miscellaneous Facts and Musings

The team run differential was +74. The 83-79 record may have actually been an underachievement for this team.
Pedro Martinez accounted for 50.9 of the 52.1 pRAA. The rest of the rotation produced just 1.1 pRAA, essentially average. His tRA was a stellar 2.43. It was arguably best single season pitching performance the Mets got all decade.
Tom Glavine also had his best season in a Mets uniform with a 4.36 tRA and 5.2 pRAA. After Tommy and Petey, the rest of the rotation was below average, producing a combined -4.1 pRAA, which is perfectly acceptable when your top two starters combine for 57.3 pRAA.
Only eight different starting pitchers were used all season, and four threw at least 150 innings. Ah, the good old days.
David Wright lead the team in wOBA at .410. The second best mark on the team, .384, was not Carlos Beltran, Mike Piazza, Jose Reyes, or Cliff Floyd. That leaves _________________.
Though Mike Piazza appeared to be fading away by posting just a .343 wOBA, Cliff Floyd had one of the best years of his career with a .381 mark of his own.
Fun fact: the offense had exactly the same number of walks as extra base hits: 486.
Its curious how much the PADE and UZR methods disagree on the team-wide defense.

Though the starting pitching was excellent, the rest of the team still needed work. Carlos Beltran failed to live up to expectations in his first season in Flushing, and his collision with Mike Cameron in the outfield left the offense without one of its more productive players for a good portion of the season. Still, the offense, bullpen, and defense were all within earshot of average, and the starting pitching, mostly thanks to Pedro Martinez's stellar year, was superb.

2006 - Destiny or Illusion?

Just like in 2005, Omar brought in two new marquee names for the 2006 season. Though the faded star of Mike Piazza had finally physically departed, the additions of Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner appeared to be the perfect way to balance a roster with potential for greatness. Delgado was a force of run creation at the time, coming off an excellent year with the with the Marlins after his shift to the Senior Circuit. Billy Wagner had the fastball to dominate the late innings and high leverage situations, plus the attitude to win over the infamously ravenous New York Media. The pair seemed to be a perfect way to correct two of the team's biggest weaknesses the previous season.

Making Runs Happen

PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR%	HR/FB	XBH%	BB%	SO%	SB	CS	bRAA	RS
6291	.264	.334	.445	.348	3.2%	11.8%	9.0%	8.7%	17.0%	146	35	39.0	834

Making Runs Not Happen

BF	ERA	FIP	tRA (SP)	tRA (RP)	SO%	BB%	HR%	pRAA	DE	PADE	UZR	RA
6240	4.16	4.37	5.39	3.66	18.6%	8.4%	2.9%	20.9	.703	2.34	9.8	731

Miscellaneous Facts and Musings

The team run differential was +103. They were very much for real.
The offense was absolutely stellar, lead by Carlos Beltran's ridiculous .441 wOBA, which even more incredibly was held down by a .262 BABIP.
The second highest wOBA among Mets outfielders wasn't produced by Xavier Nady, Shawn Green, or Cliff Floyd. It was Endy Chavez's .359. Endy added to that a 12.7 UZR in just 814.2 defensive innings, making him a 2.5 WAR player.
Carlos Delgado was as advertised, his .389 wOBA was third on the team behind Beltran and Wright.
The surprise of the year was easily Jose Valentin, who managed a .360 wOBA and 9.2 UZR in 94 games at second base, a position he hadn't played since 1994, and had only played 19 games at in his major league career. His 3.1 WAR made him the fifth most valuable player on the team.
Among players with at least as many as PA's as Xavier Nady's 292, there were eight wOBA's greater than .350: Beltran, Wright (.394), Delgado, Reyes (.377), Valentin, Chavez, Nady (.358), and Lo Duca (.354)
The pRAA splits were 53.7 for the bullpen and -32.8 for the rotation. The bullpen supplanted Pedro Martinez as the team's pitching strength, and there wasn't all that much else to talk about in a positive light.
13 different pitchers started games. Only four provided positive pRAA figures. Pedro Martinez still lead the team at 10.3, despite missing most of the second half. The other three were Orlando Hernandez, John Maine, and Brian Bannister, none of whom pitched the full year either, at least not for the Mets.
Like Delgado, Billy Wagner was also as advertised, posting a 2.65 tRA, tied for the team lead among qualified relievers with Chad Bradford.
Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, and Duaner Sanchez also each had sub-4.00 tRA's in at least 50 innings apiece.
The team's PADE and UZR match up much better in 2006 than 2005. They were a quality defensive squad.

This was a team that got it done in exactly the way the 2005 version didn't, as well as failed in the one area that the 2005 version was superior. Carlos Beltran emerged as the player the Mets thought they were buying and then some, while Jose Reyes finally grew into the player Mets fans had been hanging their dreams on for years. Unfortunately, once Pedro Martinez's health began to fail him, the lack of pitching depth was brutally exposed. It was the one obvious weakness on an otherwise incredibly complete team. And despite the playoff push coming to a crashing halt in Game 7 of the NLCS, there was even some hope for life after Pedro. The second half arrival of John Maine and clutchy playoff performance of Oliver Perez promised to give the future of the Mets rotation a new, younger look, and the beginnings of the depth they so lacked in 2006.

2007 - Oh So Close

The playoffs seemed like the natural end to the 2007 season even before it began. The everyday unit that carried the 2006 team was still largely intact, and the previous year's high leverage relief specialists all returned as well. However, the trademark splash Omar Minaya had become known for in his first two years on the job was strangely absent. This was a bold decision, considering Pedro Martinez, the team's most effective pitcher over the last two years, was slated to miss the majority of the season recovering from surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff. And some of the moves that were made were eyebrow raisers. Scott Schoeneweis and Guillermo Mota were given multi-year deals based on strong, but very short performances from the end of 2006, while major contributors Chad Bradford and Darren Oliver were allowed to walk away in Free Agency. Still, the roster construction was very similar to the team with a +103 run differential the previous year. How hard could a second straight NL East crown be?

Making Runs Happen

PA	Avg	OBP	SLG	wOBA	HR%	HR/FB	XBH%	BB%	SO%	SB	CS	bRAA	RS
6343	.275	.342	.432	.344	2.8%	11.1%	7.9%	8.7%	15.5%	200	46	42.0	804

Making Runs Not Happen

BF	ERA	FIP	tRA (SP)	tRA (RP)	SO%	BB%	HR%	pRAA	DE	PADE	UZR	RA
6293	4.27	4.46	4.93	4.71	18.0%	9.1%	2.6%	-6.4	.701	1.51	6.8	750

Miscellaneous Facts and Musings

The team run differential was +54 runs. We'll get back to this in a bit.
Though it functioned differently, the offensive output was very similar in 2007 to its 2006 predecessor. Less power, fewer strikeouts, a more aggressive running game, and a slightly lower league average wOBA actually meant their bRAA improved by three runs.
David Wright lead the team in wOBA with a .422 mark. Moises Alou's .398 was second.
Nine different players had a wOBA of .345 or higher in at least 200 PA: Wright, Alou, Carlos Beltran (.377), Damian Easley (.367), Luis Castillo (.361), Lastings Milledge (.357), Shawn Green (.351), Jose Reyes (.349), and Ruben Gotay (.345).
The big offensive disappointment was Carlos Delgado, whose wOBA fell to .342.
Though the team lacked a dominant starting pitcher and the rotation as a whole only improved slightly from 2006, they did have three guys who contributed more than any starter from the year before. Oliver Perez, John Maine, and Orlando Hernandez all produced pRAA figures greater than Pedro's 2006 output of 10.3. This really says more about the 2006 group than the 2007 one.
Oliver Perez's 4.19 tRA and 16.1 pRAA lead the starting staff in both categories. I'll say that again. Oliver Perez once lead a pitching staff in something meaningful.
Unfortunately, the 2007 bullpen couldn't do what the 2006 version did to make up for the lack of quality in the rotation. Wagner was once again excellent, but beyond him, no other reliever managed a sub-4.00 tRA in at least 60 innings. The only other two relievers who were above average were Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano, with 4.45 and 4.13 tRA's, respectively.
Believe it or not, the second and third best tRA's among relievers with at least 20 IP were from Jorge Sosa (3.74) and Ambiorix Burgos (3.81), but neither threw enough relief innings to have a huge impact.
Though the defense wasn't quite as good as the previous year, PADE and UZR both agree that it was still pretty solid.

Of course, we all know how this season ended, with one of the greatest collapses in regular season baseball history, and one of the greatest comebacks, care of the Philadelphia Phillies. Because it went down in this way, and because the Mets did indeed control the NL East for much of the 2007 season, many fans were still willing to write off the failure as the aberration to the rule that was 2006. But there was one particularly troubling statistical sign: The +54 run differential. Looking back at 2005, the +74 run differential yielded an 83-79 record. Did the Mets actually over-perform in 2007? Using the Pythagenpat method developed by David Smyth and Patriot, we can project that the 2005 team should have had about a .550 winning percentage, approximately 89 wins, and the 2007 team a .533 winning percentage, about 86 wins, so perhaps they did. Still, the high powered offense was intact even without superior production from Carlos Delgado or the surprise contributions from Jose Valentin, and Omar had found the back half a rotation that his team lacked in 2006. Now all they needed was a front.....right?

In Part 2: 2008, 2009, and beyond

Mets Decade Rankings: Hit-By-Pitch

Eric Simon — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 19:47:36 -0000

Num	Player	HBP	From Year	To Year	PA
1	Cliff Floyd	37	2003	2006	1884
2	Carlos Delgado	33	2006	2009	2023
3	David Wright	28	2004	2009	3665
4	Vance Wilson	20	2000	2004	713
5	Jason Phillips	19	2001	2004	894
6	Joe McEwing	17	2000	2004	1169
7	Edgardo Alfonzo	17	2000	2002	1731
8	Mike Piazza	14	2000	2005	2902
9	Jeromy Burnitz	14	2002	2003	809
10	Fernando Tatis	12	2008	2009	685

Hits-by-pitch have long intrigued me because they're often overlooked when considering the skill sets of particular hitters. While a lot of HBPs are just happenstance, some players get hit often enough to register as some kind of offensive trait. While getting beaned by a baseball may not be a true skill per se, some players, likely due to batting stance or movement in the batter's box, are just more susceptible to the hit-batsman. An HBP is basically the same as a walk value-wise, with some adjustment made for pain incurred.

Cliff Floyd was hit once every 51 plate appearances with the Mets, more than four times as often as Mike Piazza. Vance Wilson was hit once every 35 times to the plate, which is more often than Craig Biggio (once every 44). Amazingly, Wilson was hit even more often after he left the Mets, and has a career HBP% of 2.8% in 1,054 plate appearances (versus Biggio's 2.3% in a much larger sample of 12.503 plate appearances).

Cold Coors Field Applesauce - Lo Duca Sued, Bobby V Back To Japan?, Weekend Of Sweeps

James Kannengieser — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 13:36:25 -0000

An Angels-Rockies World Series sounds nice but I think Major League Baseball would disagree.

Meet the Mets

Ken Rosenthal reports that Bobby Valentine might return to Japan to coach. The Yokohama Bay Stars are very interested.

Paulie Walnuts Lo Duca is being sued for allegedly not paying a stud fee to the owners of his horse's lover.

Matt at Metsblog notes that Cliff Floyd was released by the Padres and discusses the importance of having Floyd type "player-coaches" on the roster.

Jason at Faith and Fear would root for the Phillies if they meet the Yankees in the World Series. It's a tough call but I'd have to root Yankees. Also check out that post for the results of the FAFIF reader survey.

Metsmerized does a hatchet job on Daniel Murphy, showing us that he was the worst hitting National League 1B with 450+ plate appearances. This is the same site that trips over itself praising Jeff Francoeur, the same Francoeur who was the 2nd to worst hitting rightfielder in the NL this season (Randy Winn was worst). Seriously, look at these slash lines for Murphy and Francoeur in 2009, they are basically identical.

Murphy: .266/.313/.427

Francoeur: .280/.309/.423

Praise or bash whoever you like but at least be consistent with methods of player evaluation.

Around the NL East

The Phillies beat the Rockies last night to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Game 4 is tonight at 6:00, Cliff Lee vs. Ubaldo Jimenez.

A Purple Row writer attended the game and wrote up a nice report.

Talking Chop discusses options at 1st base next season.

Around MLB

The Yankees swept the Twins, backed by strong pitching from Andy Pettitte and clutch clutch clutch hitting from Alex Rodriguez. Nick Punto was on his way to becoming the new David Eckstein until his costly baserunning gaffe.

Tom at Bluebird Banter takes a couple Jays writers to task for writing about "The Twins Way", which is playing fundamentally sound, mistake-free baseball. I haven't seen much Twins baseball this season, but in the last week they've made some pretty boneheaded mistakes.

The Angels owned the Red Sox as Billy Wagner and Jonathan Papelbon struggled in Game 3. Thankfully we won't be subjected to any renditions of Dirty Water this year.

Memories of Kevin Malone recapped the Dodgers-Cardinals series.

DraysBay highlights a potential buy-low candidate: Astros catcher J.R. Towles.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:51:47 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Remember that one time Jason Kendall hit a home run? And that other time? Miller Park Drunk does.

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Some things to read while feeling old.

There's not much out there in Brewer news today, which leaves us plenty of time to join Miller Park Drunk in looking ahead to the Journal Sentinal's grades for the 2009 Crew. I particularly enjoyed the notes on Jason Kendall, Felipe Lopez and Corey Hart.

Meanwhile, on the rumor front, the Tigers could be considering trading Curtis Granderson, and the Brewers are one team that could have some interest. Granderson has three years and $23.75 million left on his current deal, (plus an option for a fourth at $13 million or more) but those salaries are backloaded: he'll make just $5.5 million in 2010.

Granderson hit a career high 30 home runs in 2009, but his doubles, triples and all three numbers in his slash line declined. He posted a .913 OPS in 2007, but dropped to .858 last season and .790 this season, which was actually worse than Mike Cameron's .795. The Braves and Cubs also have possible interest.

In the minors:

Jonathan Lucroy (13th) was the only Brewer to appear in Baseball America's ranking of the top 20 prospects in the Southern League. Lucroy hit .267/.380/.418 for Huntsville, and set career highs in doubles and walks.
Wisconsin Sports Tap's website is down at the moment, but they've got a nice review of Brevard County's 2009 season and the successes and disappointments that came with it.

The Padres loaded up the transaction wire yesterday, releasing pitchers Cha Seung Baek and Shawn Hill and outfielder Cliff Floyd. All three spent most of the season on the disabled list. Baek is easily the most interesting name on that list: here's a scouting report Padres Assistant GM Paul DePodesta wrote about him back in May.

Meanwhile, the playoffs have created a grand stage on which Major League Baseball can show off the failings of some of its "elite" umpires. C.B. Bucknor's performance in last night's Angels-Red Sox game led to a poem, Jon Heyman speculating that C.B. may stand for "consistently bad," and an editing war that led to the locking of his Wikipedia page.

The playoffs also always seem to give us some strange conversations to look in on. For example, here's one on the clutchiness of Ronnie Belliard.

The TBS broadcasts this week have occasionally been difficult to watch, but in a couple of cases they've been downright impossible. TBS is blaming the angle of the sun for some technical difficulties that interrupted satellite feeds during the afternoon Wednesday. There were also some audio issues Wednesday, but they only interrupted Bob Brenly. That's an improvement, not a difficulty.

How much of a pitcher's value is tied to his hitting? Jeremy Greenhouse of The Hardball Times attempts to tackle that question by looking at value added or removed at the plate. Dan Haren was actually worth seven runs at the plate this season, which was roughly 15% of his overall value. This could be an important fact to consider when pondering the value of a pitcher like Ben Sheets, who pitches very well but likely costs himself runs both at the plate and in the field.

Happy birthday today to Randy Lerch, who won 15 games for the Brewers between 1981 and 1982 and turns 55 today, and to Bill Pulsipher, who spent parts of the 1998 and 1999 seasons as a Brewer and turns 36.

I know that's not much but it's all I have for you today, unless you're interested in a Dutch sausage.

Drink up.

Padres release Cliff Floyd, Shawn Hill

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 01:38:12 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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The Padres announced today that they have released outfielder Cliff Floyd and Shawn Hill, according to MLB.com. Floyd missed nearly the entire season with a shoulder injury, played just 90 games in the past two seasons.

Floyd will be 37 in December, but teams may stay away from the oft-injured outfielder until he can prove he is healthy. He likely falls under the DH category on the free agent market, which is rather deep this offseason.

Hill has also been on the disabled list for most of the season, appearing in three games in 2009. Hill showed promise early in his career, but has failed to stay healthy over the past few years.

He could be picked up on a minor league deal.

Will The Washington Nationals Be Able To Sign A #1 Pick?

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 17:15:09 -0000

(ed. note - "Reprinted with the author's permission from 9/29/08.")

The Last Pitcher Selected #1 Overall...

Six hours before the deadline to sign the year's draft picks, in August 2007, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays agreed to a contract with David Price, a 21-year-old, 6'6'', left-handed starter who had just completed an (11-1) junior year at Vanderbilt University, posting a 2.63 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 17 starts, 18 appearances and 133.1 IP in which he'd K'd 194 batters, walked just 31 and allowed only 3 HR's.

In Tyler Hissey's article on the Rays signing Price entitled, "Devil Rays agree to terms with David Price", the RaysDigest.com writer explains that Price had, "...struggled through what many scouts considered to be a disappointing season," in his sophomore year at Vanderbilt, before Price turned things around in a successful stint with Team USA, as Mr Hissey describes:

"...Price emerged as the top overall prospect in this year’s draft class after an outstanding campaign with Team USA – a roster filled with the elite collegiate players in the nation...(where Price)...went 5-1 with a 0.21 ERA and 61 strikeouts – compared to only seven walks – in 44 innings to lead the United States to a gold-medal finish at the World University Games in Cuba."

The work with Team USA and Price's dominant junior year established the lefty as the clear #1 prospect available in the '07 Draft, a pick which the Tampa Bay Rays had earned with a 61-101 '06 campaign. The Rays selected Price #1 overall, and six hours before the deadline to sign, Price put his name on a 6-year, $11.25 million dollar deal, which St. Petersburg Times writer Eduardo A. Encina breaks down in his 8/16/07 article on the signing entitled, "Price is worth it for Rays", in which Mr. Encina writes:

"...the Rays signed Price to a six-year, $8.5-million major-league contract, which included a $5.6-million signing bonus, the second-largest given to a drafted player. Price, 21, could make up to $11.25-million depending on how much time he spends in the majors."

But more important than the numbers of the deal was the message it sent, according to Mr. Hissey, who wrote that the signing:

"...marks a milestone for the embattled Tampa Bay franchise. In addition to sending the right message to fans by signing Price, an All American this season at Vanderbilt University, the Devil Rays were able to lock up, long-term, one of the premier college pitching prospects in the last five years."

In Price's first year in the Rays' system, the 22-year old quickly climbed the minor league ladder, spending some time at each level, Class-A Vero Beach, Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham, with Price a combined (12-1) in 14 starts and 109.2 IP in which he posted a 2.31 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP with 32 walks, 109 K's and 7 HR's surrendered. Price debuted with the Rays on September 14th of '08, pitching 5.1 innings in relief against the Yankees, allowing 3 hits, 2 runs and 1 HR in an 8-4 loss to NY in which Price received no decision, and now Price is heading into the Postseason with Tampa Bay, the rookie lefty is still (0-0) with a 1.93 ERA and 12 K's in 14.0 innings pitched just sixteen months after the Rays originally made Price the #1 pick in the '07 draft...

The Washington Nationals' '08 Draft Drama...

...The deal Price received from Tampa Bay...$8.5 M guaranteed, $5.6 M signing bonus and inclusion on the 40-man roster...is essentially the same kind of deal that the Washington Nationals' '08 1st Round Draft Pick Aaron Crow, (selected 9th overall), and his reps were originally seeking from DC, according to DC GM Jim Bowden's retelling of the negotiations in Washington Post writer Chico Harlan's "Nationals Journal" entry entitled, "More than 3,700 words from Jim Bowden on Aaron Crow", where Mr. Bowden claims that the negotiations began with the Crow camp asking for $9 million and a Major League deal, and then eventually dropping their demands as low as $4.1 or $4.4 million (depending upon who you ask) in the minutes before the deadline to sign, with the Nationals final offer of $3.3 million or $3.5 (depending upon who you ask) falling either $800 or $900,000 (depending...) short of an agreement, freeing Crow to try for a better situation and deal in next year's amateur draft...

...David Price finished his third year at Vanderbilt as the agreed-upon number one prospect in the country at (11-1) with a 2.63 ERA and 194 K's in 7 starts and 133.1 IP, and Price got a 6-year, $11.5 million dollar deal from the Rays. Aaron Crow's junior year at the University of Missouri was no less impressive statistically than Price's, with Crow going (13-0) in 15 starts and posting a 2.35 ERA, while collecting 127 K's in 107.1 IP, and though Crow wasn't as highly regarded as Price, he was considered by many the best right-hander available in '08, was the second pitcher selected in '08 and he wanted $9 million, offered to settle for $4-4.5, and ultimately received nothing when he and the Nationals could not reach a deal...

Which Brings Us To...

Stephen Strasburg. The projected #1 pick in '09, who'll play his third year at San Diego State University after an (8-3) sophomore season in which Strasburg posted a 1.57 ERA and collected 133 K's in 13 starts and 97.1 IP before joining the '08 US Olympic team, as the lone collegiate player to be selected for the roster, and throwing 7.0 no-hit innings on his way to winning his Olympic debut against the Netherlands before coming up against and losing to a dominant Cuban team to end Olympic play (1-1) with a 1.64 ERA and 16 K's in 11.0 IP...

...The Washington Nationals earned the #1 pick in '09 with a 59-102 record in 2008. Unless something dramatic happens between now and the next draft, Strasburg awaits...with his agent, whose name has not yet entered into the discussion, Scott "Maximum" Boras set to argue on his clients' behalf, and the Washington Nationals as desperate as the Tampa Bay Rays ever were to send a message to the DC Faithful that they are serious about building a winning team in the nation's capital.

To the call the DC franchise "embattled" as Mr. Hissey once referred to the Rays, would be fair, and while you can't count on Stephen Strasburg to have as immediate an impact on the Nationals as David Price is poised to have on the Rays, the signing of Strasburg, a player who's drawn a considerable amount of national attention, would be a point of pride for a team enamored with its young stars like Ryan Zimmerman, Jesus Flores and John Lannan but desperate for even a shred of credibility in the baseball world, the kind of respect that only comes when you go out and sign the best player available in the draft...or add a free agent to the youngest roster in the Majors who can have an influence on-field and in the clubhouse in the development of a winning tradition...I can even take one more year of losing if...

Back To The Rays Again?

...After finishing 61-101, 36.0 games out of first in the AL East in 2006 to earn the right to pick David Price, the Rays struggled through a 66-96 2007 with a young team featuring Tampa Bay draft picks Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes and B.J. Upton, free agent signings, Carlos Pena and Akinori Iwamura and a green starting staff including pitchers the Rays had drafted including James Shields, 25, and Andy Sonnanstine, 24, or traded for, like Scott Kazmir, 23 and Edwin Jackson, 23.

To start 2008, the Rays traded Elijah Dukes and Delmon Young, bringing back a pitching prospect for Dukes and SS Jason Bartlett and starter Matt Garza in return for Young, then called up third baseman and '06 1st Round pick Evan Longoria, and signed free agents like outfielder Cliff Floyd and closer Troy Percival...And so it was, that when David Price was called up earlier this September, 16 months after he was originally drafted, it was to a Tampa Bay Rays' team that was in the process of shocking the baseball world, winning the AL East for the first time in the franchise's history and now two days away from their first ever Postseason appearance...

For the Washington Nationals...that commitment to change has to start...NOW...or at the very least next June and August when they select and sign Stephen Strasburg.

Phillies at Padres: June 1-3

Matt Swartz — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 21:00:20 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Adrian Gonzalez leads the majors in homeruns despite hitting at Petco Park. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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The Phillies crept back barely into first place this weekend, maintaining a half game lead by sweeping the Nationals. The Padres had an early season lead in the West when they came to Philadelphia during the second weekend of the season, and they took two of three from the Phillies before the fourth game of the series was rained out. Now, the Padres are back down to .500 at 25-25. The Phillies themselves sit in first at 28-20.

Monday's game pits Joe Blanton against Kevin Correia. Correia is an okay pitcher who is able to put up decent number in a pitcher's park, though not particularly this year. Blanton is coming off a solid starts in which he pitched seven scoreless innings and struck out a career high eleven batters.

Tuesday's game will be a tough one as still-a-Padre Jake Peavy goes up against Antonio Bastardo, who will be making his major league debut. Bastardo is a lefty who has torn through AA and AAA this year, earning him the start in Myers' stead. Peavy is putting up another solid season, despite swirling trade rumors.

Wednesday's game pits the Phillies' J.A. Happ against the Padres' Chris Young. Chris Young has been okay this year, but has struggled to strike out as many hitters and has walked quite a few more as well. Happ has been solid in his first couple starts since joining the rotation after a solid display in the bullpen early on.

All three games will be pretty late in the eastern time zone, so stay tuned to The Good Phight for coverage if you have some silly reason that you can't stay up til one in the morning.

MATCHUPS

Monday, 10:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs Kevin Correia (R)

Tuesday, 10:05-- Antonio Bastardo (L) vs Jake Peavy (R)

Wednesday, 10:05-- J.A. Happ (L) vs Chris Young (R)

After the jump, I breakdown the players and their splits.

PADRES

LINE UP

(1) RF Brian Giles (L): .192/.282/.285

proj: .280/.375/.420
bb: 13%
k: 12%
gb: 37%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: average overall
s/c/z: excellent eye and excellent contact skill
r/l: .966/.788 ops; 0.6 vs 0.9 k/bb
h/a: about the same
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

(2) 2B David Eckstein (R): .246/.326/.322

proj: .275/.340/.350
bb: 7%
k: 9%
gb: 47%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: pretty good on groundballs but pretty low on line drives, high groundball rate helps-- about average overall
s/c/z: very good contact and sees a lot of pitches in zone. swings at below average number of strikes but average number of non-strikes.
r/l: .700/.741 ops; k/bb is 1.2 vs 0.8
h/a: .738/.687
p/o: slight pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well
other: used to steal bases more frequently but only tried 3 times last year and was caught once. He hasn't tried to steal yet this year. In 2007, he cut back to 11 attempts.

(3) OF Scott Hairston (R): .326/.387/.560

proj: .255/.325/.465
bb: 8.5%
k: 23%
gb: 36%
iff: 16%
ifh: 12%
babip: slightly below average, .290ish, since he pops out a lot, but good on groundball since he gets infield hits and decent on line drives as he has some power
s/c/z: slightly below average contact
r/l: 3.5 vs 2.5 k/bb; .712 vs .842 ops
h/a: a bit better at home in career but seemingly mostly luck so far
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

(4) 1B Adrian Gonzalez (L): .287/.394/.641

proj: .280/.355/.500
bb: 10%
k: 21%
gb: 41%
iff: 5%
ifh: 2%
babip: above average, around .315, rarely pops out, though doesn't get many infield hits. power indicates he should do well on linedrives
s/c/z: swings at average amount of balls, but lets fewer strikes pass than other players; somewhat below average contact
r/l: .886/.743 ops; 1.9 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: far more power on road (park effects) but slightly better k/bb at home (1.9 vs 2.4) and better babip at home (.328 vs .283)
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter but spreads ball around pretty well for power hitter
other: far more success against finesse pitchers

(5) 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff (R): .228/.281/.348

proj: .275/.325/.455
bb: 5.5%
k: 20%
gb: 41%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: average all around, low on groundballs and high on flyballs due to infield hit/fly rates
s/c/z: free swinger and chases a lot of pitches while at it, pitchers don't throw him that many pitches out of strike zone, despite that and somewhat low contact rate
r/l: typical
h/a: better on road, even at k/bb rates
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles against power pitchers

(6) LF Chase Headley (S): .236/.309/.366

proj: .265/.345/.430
bb: 10%
k: 27%
gb: 38%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: projection systems have him high-- like .330s+, but it seems like it he should be around .310 or so, since even though he pops out rarely, he doesn't get many infield hits and his groundball rate was abnormally high last year. even then, given that his eye is nothing special and his contact skills aren't great, he's likely due for a drop-- i think his overall projections are probably high
s/c/z: not a great eye and prone to chase, poor contact skills
r/l: only 140 career PA as RHB so it's tough to know
h/a: not enough info, so far better away but mostly luck based stats
p/o: definite pull hitter both ways
other:

(7) C Nick Hundley (R): .250/.348/.408

proj: .235/.285/.400
bb: 7%
k: 23%
gb: 37%
iff: 12%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected to be poor and tough to tell from small mlb sample size
s/c/z: average all around so far, it seems
r/l: very small sample size but 5.0 vs 2.9 k/bb difference
h/a: 3.1 vs 5.3 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

(8) SS Chris Burke (R): .206/.270/.324

proj: .245/.325/.370
bb: 9%
k: 17.5%
gb: 38%
iff: 18%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .285 which might be a little high given popout rate and lack of significant power or contact skill, though he has some success with groundball babip
s/c/z: decent eye, somewhat patient, okay contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .648 vs .730 ops; 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .708 vs .652 ops; 2.1 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Henry Blanco (R): .172/.273/.345

proj: .240/.290/.350
bb: 6%
k: 19%
gb: 37%
iff: 13%
ifh: 6%
babip: not much power and tendency to pop up; below average
s/c/z: good eye, okay contact
r/l: a little more power right-handed
h/a: a little better k/bb at home but fewer extra base hits
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

IF Edgar Gonzalez (R): .180/.261/.426

proj: .270/.330/.400
bb: 8%
k: 22%
gb: 46%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: definitely above average, rarely pops out and makes solid contact
s/c/z: great eye and good contact
r/l: k/bb of 4.7 vs 1.6; .685 vs .750 ops
h/a: typical given park effects
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

IF Josh Wilson (R): .209/.292/.279

proj: .245/.305/.365
bb: 7%
k: 20%
gb: 43%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected slightly below average, around .295, which seems about right
s/c/z: not a great eye but somewhat patient, above average contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .600 vs .594 ops in 259/104 PAs; 3.3 vs 2.9 k/bb
h/a: .578 vs .623 ops; 4.9 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

OF Tony Gwynn Jr. (L): .320/.393/.440

proj: .250/.315/.330
bb: 8%
k: 16.5%
gb: 49%
iff: 5%
ifh: 8%
babip: projected around .305 which seems about right
s/c/z: very patient with pretty good eye and above average contact, sees a decent amount of strikes
r/l: .599 vs .688 but only 30 career PA vs LHP; 2.3 vs 4.5 k/bb
h/a: .585 vs .628 ops; 1.6 vs 4.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

OF Cliff Floyd (L): 0 for1 with 1 K

proj: .255/.340/.410
bb: 9.5%
k: 20%
gb: 42%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .290 which could be right given powerful slow popout hitter
s/c/z: good eye with so-so contact, but his eye is actually deteriorated
r/l: .856 vs .793 ops; 1.5 vs 3.2 k/bb
h/a: .861 vs .823 ops; 1.7 vs 1.8 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY OPPONENT: Kevin Correia (R): 5.11 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.42 FIP, 42%

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 60% fb, 27% sl, 9% ch, 4% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.2; .762 vs .819
h/a: similar

Correia vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/9, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 3/5, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 1 BB
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1 BB

TUESDAY OPPONENT: Jake Peavy (R): 3.67 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 10.3 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 3.13 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.25 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 57% fb, 18% sl, 17% ct, 7% cb, 6% ch
r/l: 3.8 vs 2.6 k/bb, .603 vs .740 ops
h/a: .614/.737 ops's, 3.7/2.5 k/bb's

Peavy vs Phillies:

Feliz: 8/39, 2 2B< 1 HR, 1 BB, 9 K
Rollins: 3/12, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 4/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1/11, 0 BB, 7 K
Howard: 2/8, 1 2B< 0 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Utley: 0/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 0/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Victorino: 3/5, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 2/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K

WEDNESDAY OPPONENT: Chris Young (R): 4.45 eRA, 4.45 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 32% GB

proj avg: 3.85 ERA, 3.85 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 75% fb, 18% sl, 5% ch, 2% cb
r/l: 2.6 vs 2.2 k/bb, .647 vs .674 ops
h/a: 2.8 vs 2.1 k/bb

Young vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 6/23, 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 BB, 3 K
Feliz: 2/15, 1 Bb, 3 K
Utley: 4/11, 1 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Howard: 1/5, 1 2B, 4 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 1/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Coste: 2/4, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Josh Geer (R): 5.17 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 5.20 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.70 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 64% fb, 22% ch, 14% sl

Geer vs Phillies:

Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Howard: 2/3, 1 3B, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez; 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Cairo: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT FACING US THIS SERIES: Chad Gaudin (R): 4.76 ERA, 5.9 BB/9, 8.2 K/9, 0.2 HR/9, 3.94 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 44%
pitches: 64% fb, 28 sl, 8% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: .744 vs .812 ops; 2.7 vs 0.8 k/bb
h/a: .780 vs .773 ops; 1.6 vs 1.5 k/bb

Gaudin vs Phillies:

Ibanez: 7/18, 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 3 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Feliz: 2/8, 1 BB, 2 K
Stairs: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Dobbs: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

BULPEN

CL Heath Bell (R): 1.27 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 11.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.57 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 72% fb, 28% sl
r/l: 4.7 vs 2.2 k/bb but .687 vs .616 ops since more power surrendered to lhb
h/a: .573/.726 ops split but k/bb even

Bell vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/8, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
Howard: 1/8, 0 BB, 4 K
Rollins: 0/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 2/4, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Victorino: 1/5, 0 BB, 1 K
WertH: 1/4, 0 BB, 2 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac
Stairs: 0/2, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 1 BB
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Edward Mujica (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.69 FIP, 33% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 28%
pitches: 67% fb, 9% sl, 6% cb, 2% ch, 17% sf
r/l: 8.0 k/bb vs righties, but mostly just no walks; 1.5 k/bb vs lefties in minimal experience
h/a: not enough info

Mujica vs Phillies:

Cairo: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Greg Burke (R): 1.35 ERA, 0.0 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.96 FIP, 47% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53% in majors so far
pitches: 71% fb, 28% sl, 1% ch
r/l: not much of a clear split in minors
h/a: not enough info

Burke: has not played any Phillies

Cla Meredith (R): 3.06 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.73 FIP, 61% GB

proj avg: 3.70 ERA, 2.6 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 69%
pitches: 79% fb (I think sinkers count as fastballs on fangraphs), 18% sl, 3% ch
r/l: 4.3 vs 1.4; .612 vs .794: major ROOGY
h/a: .637 vs .721 and 2.9 vs 2.7 k/bb

Meredith vs Phillies:

Feliz: 1/9, 0 BB, 5 K, 1 SF
Ibanez: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Howard: 1/2, 1 BB (IBB), 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

Luke Gregerson (R): 3.38 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 HR/9, 3.09 FIP, 46% GB

proj avg: unprojected
gb: very high groundball rates in minors
pitches: 55% fb, 33% sl, 9% ch, 3% cb in majors so far
r/l: much better against righties and walks a lot of lefties in minors
h/a: not enough info

Gregerson vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Joe Thatcher (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 78% fb, 13% sl, 6% ct, 1% ch, 1% cb
r/l: .717 vs .978 ops in majors with 1.1 vs 3.0 k/bb-- reverse split
h/a: 1.3 vs 2.0 k/bb; .725 vs .851 ops

Thatcher vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 1/1, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Luis Perdomo (R): 4.70 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 4.1 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.31 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 4.6 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 47% in AAA
pitches: ?
r/l: not enough info
h/a: not enough info

Perdomo vs Phillies:

Coste: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1 BB
Werth: 1 BB

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .226/.270/.337

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average. my system has him at about .308.
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .293/.342/.449

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate. my system sees him at .303.
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .294/.430/.550

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs. my system has him at about .308, but he beats projection systems consistently.
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .266/.340/.573

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing balls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though. my system sees him at .310.
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .253/.342/.460

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average. my system has him at .329.
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .332/.394/.684

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand. my system sees him right at .300.
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .302/.365/.432

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls. my system sees him at .271.
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) Carlos Ruiz (R): .304/.427/.506

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lot. my system sees him at .288.
s/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers

BENCH

C Chris Coste (R): .254/.356/.460

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches. my system sees him at .294.
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .118/.179/.235

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .132/.250/.211

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .281/.465/.594

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around. my system sees him at .295.
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

OF John Mayberry Jr. (R): .222/.222/.667

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

MONDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 6.14 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.6 HR/9, 4.80 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Padres:

Gonzalez: 2/8, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Eckstein: 3/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K

TUESDAY STARTER: Antonio Bastardo (L): has not played in majors 2009; but in AA: 1.82 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 0.3 HR/9 in 34.2 IP; in AAA: 2.08 ERA, 2.1 BB/9, 8.3 K/9, 0.7 HR/9 in 13 IP

proj avg: 5.60 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 HR/9
gb: 40% in minors
pitches: ?
r/l: 2.1 vs 4.1 k/bb in minor league career
h/a: much better control at home in minor league control

Bastardo: has not played Padres

WEDNESDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.00 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.13 FIP, 37% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ vs Padres:

Hundley: 1/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Giles: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Cole Hamels (L): 5.21 ERA, 1.9 BB/9, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.47 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Padres:

Giles: 3/17, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/15, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HBP
Burke: 4/15, 1 BB, 6 K
Kouzmanoff: 2/12, 0 BB, 2 K
Hairston: 4/10, 2 2B, 2 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Eckstein: 3/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 Sac, 1 SF
Headley: 2/6, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 1/6, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/2, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 6.75 ERA, 2.7 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 2.4 HR/9, 6.57 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Padres:

Eckstein: 14/56, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 Sac
Giles: 4/17, 1 2B, 3 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/15, 3 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sf
Kouzmanoff: 5/12, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Blanco: 5/11, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/7, 0 BB, 0 K
Hariston: 0/5, 2 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hundley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 7.71 ERA, 5.0 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 2.3 HR/9, 6.08 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Padres:

Eckstein: 2/8, 2 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Giles: 2/8, 1 3B, 2 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 2/6, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Kouzmanoff: 3/5, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K
Blanco: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
Gerut: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Ryan Madson (R): 2.49 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 10.0 K/9, 0.0 HR/9, 1.90 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Padres:

A.Gonzalez: 4/9, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Giles: 3/8, 2 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Burke: 2/5, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 3/5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 0/3, 1 BB, 0 K
Blanco: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/1, 1 BB, 1 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Scott Eyre (L): 3.09 ERA, 6.2 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.5 HR/9, 6.50 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Padres:

Giles: 3/16, 1 2B, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Eckstein: 3/7, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 SF
Burke: 1/2, 1 2B, 2 BB, 1 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Gerut: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Jack Taschner (L): 3.92 ERA, 6.5 BB/9, 4.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 5.82 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 57% fb, 30% sl, 13% ch
r/l: 1.45 vs 2.2 k/bb; .754 vs .747-- large selection bias where he faces only very good lefties and not very good righties
h/a: .698 vs .797 ops; 2.1 vs 1.5 k/bb

Taschner vs Padres:

Giles: 3/17, 1 3B, 2 BB, 4 K
A.Gonzalez: 5/12, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB (1 IBB), 3 K, 1 HBP
Hairston: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.50 ERA, 5.2 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.08 FIP, 34% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Padres:

Eckstein: 1/11, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 1/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Clay Condrey (R): 2.20 ERA, 2.8 B/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 53% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Padres:

Burke: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hairston: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Eckstein: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Gerut: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Giles: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Kouzmanoff: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 6.57 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.25 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Padres:

Eckstein: 7/23, 2 2B, 4 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Giles: 7/19, 4 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Blanco: 0/11, 2 BB (1 IBB), 4 K, 1 HBP
Gerut: 2/7, 0 BB, 1 K
Burke: 0/4, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Kouzmanoff: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
A.Gonzalez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
E.Gonzalez: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Headley: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hundley: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rodriguez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K

SUSPENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY: J.C. Romero (L)

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Padres:

Giles: 1/8, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Gerut: 0/7, 2 BB, 3 K
A.Gonzalez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Eckstein: 0/3 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Kouzmanoff: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HBP
Blanco: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Hairston: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Around the Mission 6/1- Padres Links

jbox — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 17:33:59 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Buddies 4 life!

Browse more photos »

HOF'er Tony Gwynn Interview (MP3)
Matt Vasgersian filling in for Scott and BR on XX Sports Radio interviewing Tony the Gwynn. Total PFOB!
Mark Grant Interview (MP3)
OMG! Vasgersian and Grant back together again! Vasgersian can see all the behind the scenes footage of Grant on the MLBN cameras. Vasgersian busting Grant's balls just like old times.
Black enjoys Friars' crisp victory | padres.com: News
Chad Gaudin took a shutout into the seventh inning and Adrian Gonzalez hit his Major League-leading 20th home run as the Padres defeated the Rockies, 5-2, at Coors Field on Sunday.
No Longer the Least Valuable :: Friar Forecast
Brian Giles is no longer the suckiest of the suckers.
Peavy to get extra rest before next start | padres.com: News
For only the second time this season, Padres pitcher Jake Peavy won't pitch on normal rest, as he'll get an extra day of rest to let the tendinitis in his right ankle subside before pitching Tuesday.
Peavy to get extra day's rest for ankle
"It's just good to know he won't miss a start because of the ankle problem," manager Bud Black said. "It is improving. He feels confident that it's not going to affect him."
Bell bounces back as Padres salvage series finale
"Honestly, yeah," Bell said. "I wanted to get back on the hill as quick as possible, to show me personally that I can hit my spots, not screw up. Because I really feel I screwed up last night."
PADRES: Gonzalez powers Padres to victory : North County Times
"I'll see where the numbers are at the end of the year because May means nothing," he said.
Who's your Padre?: Cliff Floyd is here, so now what? ...
As for Floyd, his knee, the one that needed draining last month, is playable. There is still pain there but it's not anything that will prevent him from swinging the bat or turning on a ball. He's dealing with it and likely will for a while.
Brewers Fans are Embracing Trevor Time :: Friar Forecast
Brewers improved on Trevor Time with more multi-media
Twitter / Tim Sullivan:
Today's home run was Adrian Gonzalez' 20th. When will people stop pitching to him? Has anyone else hit so well with so little lineup help?
Twitter / Jenny Cavnar:
Forgot to mention a point of interest... 2 tix to game nxt wk sound fun? 750 followers does it. One lucky follower will WIN. details nxt Wed

Off Day WAR: The Best And Worst Seasons By Mets Left Fielders

James Kannengieser — Thu, 28 May 2009 17:30:13 -0000

Left field is next in the off day wins above replacement (WAR) series. Here are the top 10 seasons by Mets left fielders, per Sean Smith's WAR database:

Rank	Year	Player	WAR
1	1996	Bernard Gilkey	8.0
2	1969	Cleon Jones	7.5
3	2005	Cliff Floyd	4.9
4	1988	Kevin McReynolds	4.6
5	1971	Cleon Jones	3.9
6	1990	Kevin McReynolds	3.8
7	1989	Kevin McReynolds	3.5
8	2003	Cliff Floyd	3.5
9	1976	John Milner	3.4
10	1968	Cleon Jones	3.2

And the bottom 10:

Rank	Year	Player	WAR
38	1986	George Foster	0.0
39	1993	Vince Coleman	0.0
40	1973	Cleon Jones	-0.1
41	1998	Bernard Gilkey	-0.1
42	1995	Joe Orsulak	-0.4
43	2002	Roger Cedeno	-0.4
44	1982	George Foster	-0.7
45	1964	George Altman	-0.9
46	1981	Lee Mazzilli	-0.9
47	2001	Benny Agbayani	-1.1

Some quick thoughts:

Bernard Gilkey's 1996 season was ridiculous, and it matches David Wright's 2007 for the most valuable season in team history. Gilkey also has the biggest gap between most and least valuable seasons, at 8.1 WAR.
Cliff Floyd is the man.
The Kevin McReynolds era was slightly before my time, but almost everything I've read implies that he was regarded as lazy and didn't care about winning, despite his solid performance. Sounds like Carlos Beltran!
Before I learned that there's more to evaluating baseball players than batting average and stolen bases, I thought Roger Cedeno was pretty awesome. Apparently Steve Phillips did too, as he gave Cedeno a 4 year, $18 million contract following a replacement level season. Then again, Cedeno was part of the trade for Mike Hampton, who the Mets indirectly swapped for Wright, so maybe Cedeno had some value after all.

Kevin Towers is no longer commenting on trade rumors or speculation

jbox — Thu, 28 May 2009 16:35:20 -0000

XX Sports Radio: Kevin Towers Interview (MP3) by Darren Smith

The reason the Padres have been successful recently is because they've been getting really good pitching. The bullpen is also finally getting settled. Mujica and Gregerson have shown they can pitch in the 8th. Thatcher may force the opposing manager to make a line up change.
Towers thinks that Eckstein is the Padres MVP.
"When he's up there I always think something good is going to happen. I think it was the first squeeze play that we've executed in the 14 years that I've been here".
You can hit and run with him, squeeze with him and have him lay bunts down.
"Buddy has done a nice job with what he's had to work with." Black has been able to be a little bit more creative.
Towers doesn't think things would be done any different if Sandy Alderson was still here.
Drew Macias has been playing well but Cliff Floyd will likely replace him. Macias still has options available.
"I wish there was a way to keep him up here, I'm a big Drew Macias fan."
Floyd will be a good power presence.
Venable and Blanks will be moved up in September when the roster expands at the latest. Venable is certainly ready, Blanks has only played 10 games in the outfield. When asked what will happen to Chase Headley and Brian Giles, Towers responds: "We'll have to wait and see how we play over the next few months"
Towers isn't going to get into rumors or comment on the Peavy trade possibility. "I'm always open for business". Towers can't answer the question if it's a matter of when or a matter of if he'll be traded. "If the right deal presents itself we'll pull the trigger, if it doesn't we won't." Towers says that you work on the deal with the other club and then go to the player for approval. Once you get the player involved it undoubtly becomes public. Towers did not go to Peavy before the possible trade was worked out. Peavy's advisor was aware of the trade. "It did not come from us, it did not come from the Padres."
Asked if he would have preferred sending Peavy to the Cubs in the off season. "There was never a deal in place with the Cubs."
Towers gets a little worked up when Darren Smith asks him about trade rumors about the Cubs and Kevin Kouzmanoff. (Towers raises his voice, but he's not yelling like capital letters might suggest)

"I AM NOT COMMENTING ON TRADE RUMORS OR TRADE SPECULATION. END OF IT! NO MORE! IT MAKES NO SENSE! It's not good for the fans , it's not good for the players. If anything ever comes out, I guarantee it won't come from the Padres."