SB Nation - Jason Kendall

Looking back at Community Projections: Catchers

KLSnow — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:00:33 -0000

by Darren Hauck - AP

Jason Kendall is very proficient at getting hit by pitches, but that's about the only thing Brewer catchers did really well in 2009.

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Now seems like as good a time as any to start a series looking back at our expectations for 2009, who met or exceeded them, and who fell short. We'll start today with a look at catchers, to get them out of the way.

Performance:

Jason Kendall
Projected: .251/.333/.324
Actual: .241/.331/.305

Mike Rivera:
Projected: .260/.315/.406
Actual: .228/.326/.342

Surprisingly enough, we as a community were a little optimistic on Kendall, at least as optimistic as one can be while projecting a .659 OPS. While it was a narrow underperformance, Kendall underperformed our expectations in all three slash stats.

Sadly, Mike Rivera also fell short of our expectations. A year after performing exceptionally well in limited opportunities, Rivera was still used sparingly (although slightly more often), but failed to recapture 2008's magic.

Playing time:

Player	Projected %	Actual %	Diff
Jason Kendall	77.2%	79.8%	+2.6%
Mike Rivera	14.4%	22.5%	+11.1%
Angel Salome	7.5%	0%	-7.5%
Vinny Rottino	.6%	0%	-.6%
Brett Lawrie	.3%	0%	-.3%
Carlos Corporan	0%	.2%	+.2%

It looks like most of us expected the Brewers to try out some other options at catcher this season. Both Kendall and Mike Rivera gained playing time over our expectations, mainly at the expense of Angel Salome, who some of us projected to play as much as 40% of the time.

Two of sixteen projectors thought Vinny Rottino would sneak in some plate appearances this season, and one reader, before Brett Lawrie's move to second base, projected perhaps the most ambitious promotion in Brewer history. Neither of those happened, of course.

We also completely failed to project the possibility that Carlos Corporan would see fill in duty this season. His one plate appearance resulted in a hit, but his overall contribution is pretty negligible.

Overall:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Projected	.253	.327	.343	.669
Actual	.240	.331	.313	.644
Difference	-.013	+.004	-.030	-.025

Taking a look at some early projections

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 18:35:51 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Can Rickie Weeks bounce back and have a strong 2010?

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Earlier this week, ACTA Sports sent me a preview of the hitter projections from 2010's Bill James Handbook. Obviously, it's still really early, but I found some of the projections interesting, so I thought I'd pass them along to you.

Let's start with your likely leadoff hitter for the 2010 Brewers:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Rickie Weeks	425	.259	.357	.449	80	48	23	5	16	56	100

It's probably worth noting that even Bill James, who tends to be relatively optimistic, doesn't project Weeks to play a full season in 2009 (he has him at 114 games). Even so, these numbers are probably a little optimistic. The .259 average is a slight drop from 2009, but the .357 OBP is actually 17 points higher. Weeks was off to a hot start slugging in 2009, posting a .517 slugging percentage, but this .449 projection would be easily the second highest of his career.

Other potential second basemen:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Felipe Lopez	565	.281	.352	.400	79	58	31	3	10	60	104
Craig Counsell	342	.246	.337	.327	45	25	15	2	3	42	51

While James has Lopez playing a full season, he projects to be less productive, losing 55 OPS points to Weeks. This line for Counsell looks fair, although the Brewers are likely in trouble if they actually need him for 342 ABs.

Follow the jump for lots more projections!

Both because he could feasibly bat #2 and because he's possibly the most interesting projection:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Alcides Escobar	504	.288	.326	.377	75	48	22	4	5	28	77

If Escobar can put up this kind of season and still play the level of defense we've come to expect from him, I'll be overjoyed. James also projects him to steal 42 bases in 54 attempts, adding roughly 18 bases to his value. The walk total may look low, but it's actually a bit optimistic: Escobar only averaged 23.3 walks per season over six years in the minors. Escobar's primary source of value will almost certainly always be his glove, but if he can put up a .700 OPS in the majors then he'll be a significantly above average contributor at short.

The other option, of course, is J.J. Hardy:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
J.J. Hardy	528	.254	.320	.422	70	68	28	2	19	50	92

This isn't as strong of a bounce back as I was expecting to see. Certainly, Hardy adds a little bit of power over Escobar, but his OBP is actually a little lower, and his base-stealing ability is completely negligible (James projects Hardy to go 1-for-1 stealing bases). These numbers are roughly the midpoint between Hardy's very good 2008 season and extremely disappointing 2009.

Moving on, I think it's pretty safe to assume Ryan Braun will be batting third and playing left field on Opening Day, unless Anthony Witrado is promoted to GM:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Ryan Braun	615	.315	.378	.593	112	119	42	6	39	53	112

Those are MVP-quality numbers if ever I've seen them. Braun projects to be an elite player again next season, and if the award doesn't go to Albert Pujols (projected to go .333/.443/.642 with 44 home runs), Braun might have to be considered the frontrunner. These numbers would set new career highs in slugging, RBI, doubles and home runs, while tying a career low in strikeouts.

And, unless something changes before spring, Prince Fielder will likely be hitting behind Braun:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Prince Fielder	601	.286	.393	.574	103	124	37	2	44	96	135

With these numbers, Fielder would still be one of the National League's premier hitters, but his production would actually decline a bit from 2009's numbers in all three slash stats, RBI, home runs and walks. Fielder won't turn 26 until May, so it seems strange to project him to decline, even slightly. With that said, he'll still be one of the NL's elite hitters.

The way things stack up at present, the leading candidate to bat fifth and play third base is likely Casey McGehee:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Casey McGehee	492	.272	.328	.429	63	76	30	1	15	41	86

Like many of us, James expects McGehee to come back down to Earth a little, but these projections still have him as a solid-to-slightly above average third baseman. All three slash lines are significant steps down from the .301/.360/.499 numbers he put up in 2009.

The other option, of course, is some guy the Brewers have on the end of the bench:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mat Gamel	455	.277	.354	.464	65	73	28	3	17	53	142

These projections, especially the OBP, seem a little high, but Gamel projects to outperform McGehee in nearly every way en route to a .818 OPS. This is yet another piece of evidence to be used in the argument that the Brewers should sell high on McGehee to make room for Gamel in the lineup.

(I know at least a few of you would probably like to see a projection for Adam Heether here, but he doesn't appear in James' projections. Sorry.)

Until told otherwise, I'm going to continue to assume Mike Cameron will return to play center field and bat sixth:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Mike Cameron	561	.237	,328	.428	79	74	32	3	23	71	171

These numbers aren't the best argument for opening the checkbook to keep him around. Clearly, James is expecting age to catch up with Cameron, who would lose 13 points in average, 14 in OBP, 24 in slugging, and strike out over 170 times for just the second time in his 16 year career. These numbers still aren't terrible, and combined with good defense Cameron is still likely an above average center fielder. But, with that said, paying anything like his $10 million 2009 salary for performance at this level is a questionable decision.

Dropping all the way to the seventh spot in the lineup in right field, here's Corey Hart:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Corey Hart	533	.272	.332	.467	78	76	37	5	19	43	110

This would actually be a pretty nice bounce-back season for Hart, with his highest batting average, slugging percentage and run total since 2007. Entering his age 28 season, it's possible Hart will never be the player we all thought he might be after hitting .295/.353/.539 three years ago, but these numbers would be acceptable for a corner outfielder.

While we're on the subject, here are the projections for some other outfielders on the Brewer roster:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Frank Catalanotto	110	.273	.360	.418	14	12	8	1	2	10	14
Jody Gerut	162	.259	.326	.420	23	20	9	1	5	14	25

I'm not sure either of these stat lines suggest either of these guys should play everyday, but they project to be solid fourth and fifth outfielders next season, and if it won't cost too much to do so, I'd be fine with bringing both back. Thankfully, there's no projection for Corey Patterson.

I'm preparing myself for disappointment by operating under the assumption that Jason Kendall will continue to catch and tie up the eighth spot in the batting order again next season.

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Jason Kendall	409	.254	.338	.320	43	35	19	1	2	37	44

I'm not sure what James is smoking here, because even this lackluster projection seems a little too high. In two seasons as a Brewer, Kendall has hit ..244/.329/.315, and I'm not sure he can even repeat that at age 36, much less improve upon all three numbers. Kendall is likely getting the benefit of the doubt based on an extensive major league career, but recent evidence would suggest he's sliding downhill, not mounting a comeback. I'm not sure where one finds the data to support even a small offensive resurgence from a weak-hitting 36 year old catcher.

Interestingly enough, James' projections don't have Mike Rivera, but they do have Angel Salome:

Player	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	R	RBI	2B	3B	HR	BB	K
Angel Salome	240	.296	.345	.442	30	39	15	1	6	18	45

This is much higher than I would have projected Salome, who I think might be the third best of the three internal options to replace Kendall next season (Sadly, Jonathan Lucroy is also not projected). With that said, Salome is projected to out-OPS Kendall by 129 points. Remember what it was like when the Brewers had a catcher that wasn't an offensive black hole? Me either. I'd love to see what that's like.

So, what do you think of these projections?

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:03:58 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Dear front office: Please don't acquire Gary Matthews Jr., unless the Angels are willing to eat his salary AND take on Jeff Suppan's. Sincerely, Everyone

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Some things to read while getting a new backpack.

So apparently Gary Matthews Jr. wants out of Anaheim, and some Brewer fans (including Al) think he could be a good fit in center field next season, if the Angels agree to pay most of his salary. Meanwhile, Angels management is somewhere hoping and praying that there's one general manager left in baseball who thinks Matthews can be a productive major leaguer next season. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs notes that Matthews has been worth -$5.3 million in salary over the last three seasons. And while he was a pretty good defender at one point, TotalZone ranked him as the fourth worst defender in all of baseball last season. And he's 35 years old. On the scale of center fielders, Matthews is much closer to Corey Patterson than Mike Cameron.

The Milwaukee chapter of the BBWAA has unveiled their postseason awards, with Prince Fielder and Yovani Gallardo surprising no one by taking home Team MVP and Pitcher of the Year honors, respectively. Trevor Hoffman was named top newcomer, Todd Coffey was named Unsung Hero and Craig Counsell won the "Good Guy" award, which may be renamed for him when he retires. Mike Cameron also received two community service awards: one from the team and one from the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. Congratulations to all of them.

Speaking of Mike Cameron, he's one of two Brewers among the top 6 free agents by WAR. Cameron ranks sixth with 4.3 WAR, a couple spots down from Felipe Lopez, who is fourth with 4.6.

Josh Butler has a new blog post from the AFL. Today's topics include night games, strep throat and his repertoire. Butler has been home for a few days with strep but still expects to make his scheduled start today.

Unless another package of stuff shows up on my doorstep, today is your last chance to enter the Bring Back Seth McClung contest. As of this writing, 401 people have signed up. I'll draw seven winners from the group at 5 pm today.

There had previously been speculation that Doug Melvin could consider leaving the Brewers to become president of the Blue Jays. You can lay that rumor to rest: Interim President Paul Beeston has been given the full time job. Elsewhere around baseball:

Astros: Signed former Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills to be their new manager.
Rays: Signed Gabe Kapler to a one year deal for slightly more than $1 million.

As you may have heard, Mark McGwire is coming out of hiding to return to the Cardinals as hitting coach. Lookout Landing speculates on how his first meeting with Skip Schumaker might go.

Speaking of Lookout Landing, they spent the evening last night watching a winter league game in Venezuela, and have some observations on the experience.

Side note: Lookout Landing also has a link to free live broadcasts of VWL games, but when I clicked on it the first thing I got was a box asking for permission to connect to my Facebook account. Don't fall for it.

Still looking for a replacement for Jason Kendall? MLB Trade Rumors has a list of catchers that may be available via trade. Most of them aren't too exciting, but it's possible all of them would be better than Kendall next season.

So this is how the other half lives: As part of the McCourt divorce, Jamie McCourt has submitted a list of her monthly living expenses, which includes over $30,000 (per month) for clothing and accessories, over $1000 for wine, and $533 per month for a birthday party. Apparently when you're that wealthy, you get a birthday every month. Who knew?

Speaking of birthdays, happy birthday to:

Braden Looper, who turns 35.
Lenny Harris who spent 2002 as a Brewer and turns 45.
Mark Knudson, who appeared in 106 games as a Brewer in the late 80's and early 90's, and turns 49.
And Bob Melvin, who served as Phil Garner's bench coach and turns 48.

Staying on the subject of birthdays, Wezen-ball has compiled a calendar of Top Birthday WARs. So if you've ever wanted to know the best player born on your birthday, there you go. Mine is Joe Judge, who racked up 43.7 WAR playing first base for the Washington Senators from 1915 to 1932.

That's all I have for you today, unless you're someone in need of a list of unacceptable Halloween candy.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 13:59:52 -0000

More photos » by Ron Schwane - AP

Facial expression aside, Zach Greinke would look great as a Brewer. That doesn't mean it'll happen, though.

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Some things to read while never getting on an airplane again.

Tom Haudricourt says an announcement is imminent on the hiring of Rick Peterson as the new Brewer pitching coach. Is anyone else as unsure about this as I am? I know Peterson is highly regarded and all that, but the concept of one more guy coming in to tinker with the deliveries of the young pitchers makes me shudder. If Peterson announces a plan to overhaul Yovani Gallardo's delivery, someone may have to come pull me away from the ledge.

Meanwhile, Bryan Price, who also interviewed for the position, has accepted the same job with the Reds. So, if Peterson isn't the pick after all, the search will likely go back to the drawing board. The Pirates filled their pitching coach vacancy internally, promoting AAA pitching coach (and former Brewer) Ray Searage.

Somehow, an unlikely story from an unlikely source got legs this weekend and ran all over the blogosphere. As noted in Rumorville, at least one person thought the Brewers might be close to a deal to acquire Zach Greinke from the Royals. For once, I'm completely with Tom H. on this one. I read over 300 baseball sites daily but Bleacher Report isn't one of them, and "rumors" like this one are exactly why.

Elsewhere on the hot stove, Roguejim made the case for retaining Felipe Lopez, and View From Bernie's Chalet video-blogged on the possibility of retaining Mike Cameron.

Meanwhile, no one seems to be making the case for retaining Jason Kendall, even though Baseball Reflections ranked him fifth among free agent catchers. The $4.25 million Kendall made in 2009 was the ninth highest catcher salary in all of baseball last season.

Tristarscoop had a note over the weekend on athletes and Twitter, wondering if Seth McClung has hurt his chances of returning by taking that route and being as honest as he's been with the fans. McClung responded in three parts, and I'm glad to see he doesn't appear to plan on changing anytime soon.

Speaking of McClung, you have until 5 pm today to join the Bring Back Seth McClung Facebook group to be eligible to win a baseball autographed by the group's namesake. As I write this, 324 members have joined. Will you be 325?

Over at Cute Sports, Tristarscoop also picked up on a nice story involving Craig Counsell and a Special Olympian.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Released So Taguchi.
D-Backs: Brandon Webb doesn't expect to sign a long term extension this winter, and could be a free agent following next season.
Dodgers: Declined Will Ohman's option for 2010.

It's widely accepted that the Brewers are pretty lucky to have Mark Attanasio as an owner, and perhaps we should be even more grateful given the mess developing in Los Angeles. True Blue LA has a great read chronicling the history of Dodger ownership. Even if you don't read the whole thing, check out the link for the first picture: Even Tommy Lasorda looks disgusted while sitting next to the McCourts.

Speaking of ownership trouble: Go check your checkbook. If you've got $525-$550 million to spare, you could own the Texas Rangers.

Two weeks ago, I mentioned some speculation that the Brewers could deal J.J. Hardy to the Nationals for John Lannan, sparking a debate in the comments on Lannan's abilities and the difference between a productive starter and a smoke-and-mirrors laden disaster-in-waiting. That debate continues elsewhere, as Jack Moore looks at Lannan's low BABIP over at FanGraphs, and Nick Steiner of The Hardball Times launched an effort to attempt to explain it.

Speaking of disasters-in-waiting, postseason umpiring continues to be a major topic of conversation this October. Aaron Gleeman notes that at least a dozen umpires, including some of baseball's longest tenured, were unavailable for the postseason due to injury issues, but also nails it with this point:

In theory even MLB's non-elite umpires should be capable of doing their job at an acceptable level, so regardless of injuries and workload restrictions Bud Selig and company still need to address the issues that we've seen so far.

The last two candidates are set to interview today for the Astros' managerial vacancy, but Jorge Says No! has gone ahead and handicapped the field. He thinks Manny Acta is both the most deserving candidate and the one most likely to get the job. The best thing we can do is continue to hope for Ned Yost.

Sports media is filled with complaints about whiny, overpaid athletes and whatnot, but it's worth noting that many minor league baseball players are still taking home significantly substandard wages while trying to earn their way to the big leagues. Minor league veteran Garrett Broshuis has a look at living conditions in the minor leagues, and the sacrifices some players make to keep the dream alive.

On this day in 1982, the Cardinals beat the Brewers 13-1 in Game 6 of the World Series.

Happy birthday today to Marc Newfield, who played for the Brewers in 1996, 1997 and 1998 and turns 37, and Horacio Estrada, who appeared in eleven games for the Crew in 1999 and 2000 and turns 34. Both were out of the big leagues for good after their age 25 season, and both are still younger than Craig Counsell, David Weathers and Trevor Hoffman.

I know we all have more time on our hands during the offseason, but if you're as big of a nerd as I am you'll spend that time building a Katamari.

Drink up.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 13:40:29 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Former Brewers manager Ned Yost looks great with someone else's logo behind him.

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Some things to read while keeping your pimp hand fuzzy.

The search for a new pitching coach might be about to get much more interesting: Rick Peterson, considered by most the odds on favorite to get the job, is also interested in the vacancy in Florida. If Peterson turns out to be unavailable, the search may start from scratch.

Meanwhile, yesterday was interview day for Ned Yost in Houston. Inexplicably, Yost still doesn't seem to understand why he was let go in Milwaukee, and said this when asked about it:

"Don't lose 10 out of 13 games is the best thing I can figure," Yost told reporters in Houston, "and hope your offense stays on track so you don't struggle to score runs."

Alyson Footer also quoted him as saying the Astros are "one starter away from having a really good staff." If the Astros hire Yost, fans in Houston can look forward to a 2010 season full of "really battling" and "being one pitch away from getting out of it."

In yesterday's Mug, I noted that Mike Burns had been outrighted to AAA, but neglected to mention that he's injured: He presumably still has the labrum pathology that he was diagnosed with at the end of the season. It's a bit more challenging to demote an injured player, but TheJay has a look at the CBA's rules regarding such transactions.

I also mentioned Jon Heyman's decision to leave Prince Fielder off his MVP ballot. Thankfully, we're not the only ones upset about it: James Bailey of Hardball Cooperative has an in-depth look at Heyman's ballot, and the reasons Fielder should be on it.

Plunk Everyone has compiled a list of difficulty rankings for several stats around baseball: Follow the link to see where Jason Kendall, Ryan Braun, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Prince Fielder, Braden Looper, Mike Cameron, Yovani Gallardo and Felipe Lopez rank among the best in baseball at the things they do.

If we learned one thing about Jody Gerut this season, it's this: he's miscast as a bench player. Among the 20 most frequently used pinch hitters in baseball this season, Gerut ranked 17th in OPS off the bench, ahead of only Mark Loretta, Greg Norton and Greg Dobbs. I have a feeling we'll have "Who is the real Jody Gerut?" conversations on more than one occasion this winter.

Further proof that it'd be really, really difficult to get fair value back in a deal involving Ryan Braun: Rowland's Office has a hypothetical deal sending Braun to the Braves for Jair Jurrjens, one of the game's top young pitchers. Even if you assume their expected values were exactly the same, Jurrjens has a few days over 2 years of service time, meaning he's under team control for four more seasons (through 2013), and will be arbitration eligible after next season. Braun, meanwhile, is under contract and cost controlled for two extra seasons (through 2015), and his salary never exceeds $12 million.

(I use Cot's Contracts all the time for info like that, and frequently forget to cite them. If you need contract info, Cot's is the place for it.)

In the AFL and on the farm:

Project Prospect's Friday topic of conversation is Lorenzo Cain, who's off to a pretty good start in the AFL and is expected to play roughly 4 times a week in an effort to bounce back from a rough 2009 season. They've also got a nice primer on what to expect from the AFL and they're looking for a scouting report on the speed of Taylor Green.
Wisconsin Sports Tap has a look at the season that was for the Huntsville Stars. It's kinda bleak down there, but Jonathan Lucroy is a nice bright spot.
Actually, statistics would suggest it was pretty bleak all over the Brewer minor leagues this season. Baseball America has the final batting leaderboards for 2009, and the only Brewer appearances are among the leaders in stolen bases (Eric Farris had 70) and strikeouts (Brock Kjeldgaard, Joe Koshansky and Brendan Katin all made the list).
As noted in BA's Minor League Transactions, the Brewers released 12 minor leaguers yesterday (FanShot). The most notable name on the list was 2004 third round pick Josh Wahpehpah.
Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel and Angel Salome all made Baseball America's list of the top 20 prospects in the Pacific Coast League. Tom Haudricourt had mentioned this previously, but that link will take you to the team's press release.
John Sickels of Minor League Ball has a look back at his top 50 pitching prospects entering 2009, including a pre-suspension Jeremy Jeffress.

The Hendies tournament continues over at Brew City Sports: Follow the link to cast your vote in the Excrement Eight.

If you like your roundups of Brewer news, but wish there was less reading involved and maybe a bit more rambling, then you may be the perfect candidate to try out View From Bernie's Chalet's new video blog.

Or, if you like Brewer related fan fiction, you may want to try out Witrado's Quest and Doug Melvin's Hunt for October.

I'm sure this is exactly what Major League Baseball had in mind for the postseason: After a long delay between rounds, baseball is back and the main topics of conversation are weather and divorce. Jon Heyman thinks the Yankees and Angels will get the game in tonight, but could have a hard time tomorrow. Diamond Leung has the scoop on each side's attorney in the McCourt fiasco.

It could be worse, though: Fans in Texas aren't getting playoff baseball, and they're also not getting their playoff ticket money back until sometime in November. (h/t 6-4-2) The money is reportedly "tied up with MLB," and may already have been used to pay off some of the cash the Rangers reportedly had to borrow to make payroll this season.

If you ever doubted the usefulness of Twitter, doubt no longer: In amidst conversation about last night's NLCS opener, Jason of IIATMS presented me with a Nickname of the Year contender: Ronnie "Staypuft" Belliard.

On this day in 1982, the Brewers scored six runs in the seventh inning en route to a 7-5 victory over the Cardinals, evening the World Series at two games apiece.

Happy birthday today to Freddy Parejo, who spent the 2009 season patrolling the outfields in Huntsville and Nashville and turns 25 today. Birthday wishes also go out to Brian Harper, who spent the 1994 season as a Brewer and turns 50.

That's all I have for you today, unless you wanted to read about the rebound of Krispy Kreme or the rising price of chicken wings. I found both of those links via C. Trent Rosecrans.

Drink up.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:14:34 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

As it turns out, Jason Kendall may not be all that valuable defensively either.

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Some things to read with the hand-washing time you've saved.

Clearly, "calling a good game" is not weighted heavily in these rankings, but Driveline Mechanics ranked Jason Kendall 105th out of 114 catchers defensively in 2009, and Mike Rivera 28th. It's further proof that Kendall has outlived nearly all of his value...and somehow, I still expect Doug Melvin to find a reason to bring him back next season, and Ken Macha to play him 120 times.

Craig Counsell and Braden Looper's offseason surgeries were completed yesterday, and both were "routine," according to Dr. William Raasch, who is now off to shop for a new house with the money he's made off the Brewers this week (FanShot).

Here's some symmetry for you: Wisconsin Sports Tap has a list of the top ten Brewer moments from the 2009 season, and Miller Park Drunk has a list of ten things he won't miss about this season.

While glancing over Baseball Digest Daily's Asian MLB Awards, I noticed this completely unrelated tidbit: The Brewers, who scored the third most runs in the NL this season, got 14.3% of those runs from Ryan Braun. That's the fourth highest percentage in all of baseball.

In what might be an unprecedented event, the Brewers had two pitchers (Braden Looper and Manny Parra) among the top three in the "Good Luck Division" of The Hardball Times Awards' season finale. The two pitchers combined for 25 wins with a 5.70 ERA.

Speaking of awards, Jon Heyman left Prince Fielder off his NL MVP ballot. Moments like this are why it's so easy to blast the BBWAA.

The Arizona Fall League's Opening Day was yesterday, but it wasn't a great start for the Javelinas, who got pummeled by Surprise, 17-4. Lorenzo Cain led off with a double for Peoria in the first and scored the game's first run, but the Rafters responded with runs in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh innings. Omar Aguilar also pitched in the game, and allowed three runs on four hits and a walk in 1.2 innings. Beyond the Box Score has the PitchF/X data on Aguilar's outing.

There's just one note for the transaction log today:

Padres: Infielder Luis Rodriguez and catcher Eliezer Alfonzo declined outright assignments to the minors and are now free agents.

Who knows if the Brewers might be interested, but one more name could be about to enter the starting pitching rumor mill: Ken Rosenthal is reporting Tim Hudson could decline his half of his mutual option with the Braves for next season. The option would pay Hudson $12 million in 2010, and it seems unlikely many teams will want to commit more than that to a guy who made just seven starts in 2009.

Every day it looks a little more likely that Ned Yost will be back in the big leagues next season. He's already being mentioned as a managerial candidate in Cleveland and Houston, and now you can add him to the list in Washington as well.

If a last place team in a terrible stadium switches over to a TV network much of their fan base doesn't get, do they make a sound? According to SportsBusiness Journal, only 20,000 households tuned in to watch an average A's game this season, the second lowest figure in all of baseball.

Some days I'm up perusing the internet before it's light, and I come back with lots of great baseball links. Some days, I just find lunch ideas. Such is the Way of the Mug.

Happy birthday today to Tommy Harper, who led the 1970 Brewers in hits, runs, doubles, home runs, RBI, stolen bases, walks, batting average, OBP and slugging, and turns 69 today.

That's all I've got for you today, but if you're looking for something else to do, you could consider Static Electricity Fun Time.

Drink up.

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again)

devil_fingers — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:17:43 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

That Minnesota pretty boy might be in the playoffs, but he's go nuthin on One Man, Five Tools.

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Even if you aren't a FanGraphs junkie like myself and so many others, if you spend any time there looking at the WAR rankings in order to, say, evaluate who should be the 2009 MVP candidates, you've undoubtedly noticed (due to Joe Mauer's incredible season) that currently, they do not have a system in place to evaluate catcher fielding. Hey, no one's perfect, and knowing Mr. Appleman and his crew, they're probably waiting until they get a system they're happy with before they implement something.

I don't make any great claim to originality here, as you will see if you read on, but for those of you who want a rough idea of how different catchers "measure up" behind the plate for your MVP arguments or to settle the eternal "I wonder just how bad a guy can be at blocking pitches," question, here is a rough attempt to evaluate every catcher's defensive 2009.

Choosing a Methodology (With Qualifications)

Before I go any further, I should make clear that for the purposes of this post that I assume that it is well-established that the differences between catchers with regard to gamecalling (as expressed in, e.g., "catcher's ERA") are negligible, and thus such issues will not be discussed in this post. When I discuss catcher defense, like most others, I will be discussing preventing stolen bases, blocking pitches, etc.

One of the difficulties with evaluating catcher defense with regard to even these issues is that, much more than with other fielding positions, the catcher's performance is dependent on another player -- namely, the pitcher. No matter now strong or weak the catcher's arm is, he can't escape the reality that he depends on the pitcher's skill with regard to holding runners, quickness to the plate, etc. While the catcher's skill with regard to blocking pitches that are off the mark is clearly important, catching Tim Wakefield poses a unique challenge (just ask Josh Bard). And so on.

For these reasons, probably the best way of measuring catcher defense is Tom Tango's WOWY (With or Without You) method of defensive evaluation as detailed the 2008 Hardball Times Annual. You can read about the details in the links provided. Versions of WOWY for catchers have also been done by Brian Cartwright and Dan Turkenkopf. I would do it that way if I could. The main issue is that 1) it's pretty complicated, and beyond my present capabilities, and 2) it requires something like Retrosheet, which isn't available until after the World Series is over, so even if I could do it, I couldn't get the numbers during the season of even now...

In lieu of that, I'm going to be doing something much simpler, which, while not quite as good, is, I think, pretty decent. Just keep in mind the qualifications about not adjusting for particular pitchers made above.

The Method Used Here

For non-WOWY catcher defense, the basic idea is to 1) choose what events you're going to deal with, 2) determine each catchers performance with respect to league average, and 3) decide the run value of each event. Like I said, this post isn't that original: very similar methods are used/suggested by Rally and chuckb. I have most closely modeled my "catcher defense metric" on the method outlined by the Amazing Justin Inaz (now a regular at Beyond the Box Score). His weights for each event seem about right to me, and the general principles are sound. One modification I've made (I'll note the other as I go along) is in the denominator of some stats. when Justin did his version, he was using THT's catcher defense stats, which only recorded catcher innings. Since then, the new Baseball Reference has come out with more detailed individual catcher defense stats, including plate appearances. While the difference isn't huge, I feel that it's more accurate to use plate appearances (batters faced) as the denominator for things like pitch blocking and errors, since while every inning (other than some ninth [or later] innings) has 3 outs, the catcher has to be out there whether there are 3 or 10 batters during those three outs. Otherwise, I'm pretty close to Justin's method, and you can read there for more details.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: First, we figure out the league rate for caught stealing. One cool thing about the new Baseball Reference is that it separates out the catcher caught stealings from the pitcher pickoffs, so we can exclude the pickoffs (not under the catcher's control) from the equation. So we total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate. We use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). The formula for runs above/below average for each catcher is thus (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate is (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs, which we make negative since the more WP/PBs a catcher has, the worse his defense is. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: Justin accounts for two kinds of errors -- throwing errors and fielding errors. Baseball Reference also includes catching errors (on throws). I've assimilated catching errors to fielding errors. There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). The method is the same as above. Get the league rate, then see how far over/under the player is. For throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Then you just add them all up to get the total runs above/below average. It's not perfect, and hopefully, there will be some improved options soon, but the results do seem to reflect reality. I thought about coming up with a "rate" version like UZR/150, but that isn't as simple as prorating for innings caught/PA -- one needs to normalize each sort of event separately, the chart is confusing enough as it is. For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season. But before the big chart, let's take a look at some standout performances. I've rounded to one decimal place to tone down the illusion of great precision.

Standouts and "Standouts"

Caught Stealing: Gerald Laird of the Tigers dominates here at + 11 runs. The next closest player was Johjima at +6.5 runs, then Koyie Hill at +5.4. Now, Laird had a lot more time behind the plate to accomplish that, but one wonders why teams kept trying to run on him. At the bottom of the rankings for CS runs are fan favorite A.J. Pierzynski at -4.5 runs, Yorvit Torrealbea at -5.1 runs, and blowing away the field is defensive legend and Boston Red Sox stalwart Jason Varitek, at -10.7 runs.

Pitch blocking: As for the actual "catching" part of catching, the best in baseball this season was the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz, at +5.6 runs. Jason Varitek gains some of his cred back here at +5.1 runs (I wonder what it would be if he had to catch Wakefield). The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Matt Wieters may not have quite cemented his Hall of Fame credentials, but he can block a pitch decently at +3.9 runs. The players are grouped by their performance for separate teams, so I just noticed that one of my favorites, Gregg Zaun, was +2.9 for the Orioles, and +1.4 for the Rays, which puts him at +4.3, or the real number 3. Maybe Baltimore let him go to soon -- he definite brings his Z-Game when he's blocking pitches. At the bottom of the rankings, Jorge Posada, Josh Bard, and and Rob Johnson (why did he get so much playing time?) are all tied at -3.8, Russell Martin (?!) is at -5.1 (although he saw more PA than just about any other catcher on the list). And bringing up the rear... this is going to be a shock, prepare yourself... Miguel Olivo, at -7.8. Think about that -- it's only -0.28 runs per WP/PB. Sure, he's "only" -2.7 runs worse thatn Martin, but Martin saw almost 1400 more PA than Olivo this season. This shows we're on the right track, as Brian Cartwright's WOWY study done previous to this season showed Olivo to be historically terrible at blocking the plate. Another great job of scouting by Dayton Moore and the Process Servers.

Throwing errors: Given that there's so little variance with this stat, there's probably less of a repeatable "skill" when it comes to this stuff. In other words, if we were doing a projection, there would be much more regression for TE and FE runs than others. Still, we're measuring value here, so it goes on the record. Gerald Laird leads the pack again at +1.5 runs, followed closely by Yorvit Torrealbea at +1.3 the Kurt Suzuki and Henry Blanco at +1.2 each. At the bottom, we have Rod Barajas (otherwise a good defensive catcher) at -1.6, Miguel Montero at -1.7, and sadly, my boy John Buck at -3.0. He had some really, really horrible games at the beginning of the season. At least he can move two inches to his right or left.

Fielding errors: Jason Kendall justifies his major league status with a +1.0 here, as does Russell Martin. Rod Barajas shows he's Joe Mauer's equal, as they both have +0.8. Mike Napoli is -1.6, the traitorous Paul Bako is at -2.0, and Brian McCann, who's decent at everything else, has an anomalous -3.6.

The Best and The Worst, and Others of Note: One Man, Five Tools, Indeed: Gerald Laird blows away the field at +13.3 runs. The Tigers made a conscious effort to improve their defense in the offseason, and whatever else happened, with Laird they certainly succeeded. At 0.9 WAR player without defense, with it he's about 2.2. Kenji Johjima might be overpaid, but at +8.8 runs defensively, he seems a bit less ridiculous. Dave Ross and Ryan Hanigan come in at +7.0 runs. Yadier Molina was very good, if not quite as godlike as some would think, but +6.6 runs is nothing to sneeze at, and makes him about a 4 WAR player this season. Joe Mauer's +4.3 is good, but he's not the best in baseball or the league, and that certainly doesn't make him a better MVP candidate than Zack Greinke. Matt Wieters is +2.5, so he'll probably stick at catcher, at least for a while.

Victor Martinez isn't as bad as some would say, being only -2.2 betweeen Boston and Cleveland. Jeff Mathis is a "great" defensive backup at -2.0. Or how about Jose Molina at -1.1 backing up Jorge Posada at -5.9? Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina is at -3.4

As for the bottom ranks... Josh Bard is at -7.3, the human swing machine, Miguel Olivo, is at -8.8, and the Living Stereotype, Mike Napoli, is at -9.7. No wonder the Angels think Mathis is a good defender.

The Big Chart

That's it. Keep in mind (along with the limitations mentioned above) that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent. I hope you will find this handy when trying to get various catchers' "real" WAR, and let others know about it. Let the arguments begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	CSRuns	WP/PBRns	TERns	FERns	TotalRuns
1	Gerald Laird	DET	4842	11.0	0.6	1.5	0.2	13.3
2	Kenji Johjima	SEA	2597	6.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	8.8
3	Dave Ross	ATL	1517	4.8	1.6	0.3	0.3	7.0
4	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	2913	4.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	7.0
5	Yadier Molina	STL	5045	3.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	6.6
6	Koyie Hill	CHC	2755	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.5	6.1
7	Henry Blanco	SDP	2278	2.9	1.2	1.2	0.4	5.7
8	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	3887	-1.5	5.6	0.6	0.7	5.4
9	Raul Chavez	TOR	1818	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	4.4
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	4153	0.5	2.4	0.7	0.8	4.3
11	Rod Barajas	TOR	4298	2.6	2.5	-1.6	0.8	4.2
12	Brian Schneider	NYM	1976	1.6	1.2	1.0	-0.4	3.5
13	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	2069	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.4	3.3
14	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1024	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	3.1
15	Lou Marson	CLE	572	1.6	1.0	-0.2	0.1	2.5
16	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	1128	2.2	0.3	0.6	-0.5	2.5
17	Matt Wieters	BAL	3384	-1.1	3.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5
18	Ronny Paulino	FLA	2609	2.1	-0.4	0.4	0.5	2.5
19	Landon Powell	OAK	1205	2.8	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.4
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	2180	3.1	0.9	-1.3	-0.3	2.4
21	Omir Santos	NYM	3092	-0.7	2.8	1.1	-0.9	2.4
22	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	3327	1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.6	2.2
23	Chris Iannetta	COL	3362	0.1	1.9	-0.7	0.6	2.0
24	Gregg Zaun	BAL	1974	0.2	2.9	-0.9	-0.4	1.8
25	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1893	2.4	0.4	-1.4	0.4	1.7
26	Corky Miller	CIN	702	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.7
27	Ramon Castro	NYM	822	1.8	0.6	0.4	-1.3	1.4
28	Mike Rivera	MIL	1227	-0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	1.3
29	Lou Marson	PHI	245	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.2
30	Jason LaRue	STL	1139	0.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	1.2
31	Craig Tatum	CIN	749	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.1	1.1
32	Chris Coste	PHI	925	-1.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	1.0
33	Dusty Ryan	DET	337	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.0
34	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	5222	-3.4	3.6	1.2	-0.5	0.9
35	Michel Hernandez	TBR	1140	0.1	1.1	0.1	-0.5	0.8
36	Geovany Soto	CHC	3607	2.2	-1.1	0.4	-0.8	0.7
37	Clint Sammons	ATL	135	1.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6
38	Jamie Burke	WSN	155	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
39	Brad Ausmus	LAD	1086	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.2	0.6
40	Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	961	1.4	0.1	-0.5	-0.6	0.5
41	Matt Pagnozzi	STL	40	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
42	Chris Gimenez	CLE	245	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.5
43	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	113	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
44	Buster Posey	SFG	179	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
45	Dioner Navarro	TBR	4097	0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.4
46	J.R. Towles	HOU	538	-1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.3
47	Wyatt Toregas	CLE	710	-0.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3
48	Alex Avila	DET	709	0.4	-0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3
49	Steve Holm	SFG	101	0.5	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
50	Edwin Bellorin	COL	69	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
51	Dusty Brown	BOS	49	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
52	Jose Lobaton	SDP	205	0.2	0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.1
53	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	2347	0.2	0.2	-0.7	0.4	0.1
54	Jake Fox	CHC	30	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
55	Carlos Corporan	MIL	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Ryan Budde	LAA	38	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	A.J. Ellis	LAD	119	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
58	Guillermo Rodriguez	BAL	72	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Bobby Wilson	LAA	98	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
60	David Freese	STL	10	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1
61	Kevin Cash	NYY	297	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1
62	Chris Coste	HOU	628	-1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	-0.2
63	Adam Moore	SEA	241	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.2
64	Corky Miller	CHW	383	-0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-0.2
65	Gregg Zaun	TBR	928	-1.5	1.4	0.5	-0.6	-0.2
66	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	3169	-0.5	1.6	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
67	Wil Nieves	WSN	2538	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3
68	John Hester	ARI	255	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.3
69	Paul Hoover	PHI	55	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.4
70	Guillermo Quiroz	SEA	161	-0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.4
71	Dane Sardinha	DET	404	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.5
72	Shawn Riggans	TBR	156	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	0.0	-0.5
73	Matt Treanor	DET	157	-0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.6
74	Kevin Richardson	TEX	70	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.6
75	Victor Martinez	CLE	1991	-2.7	0.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6
76	Josh Thole	NYM	551	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.6
77	Tyler Flowers	CHW	123	-0.3	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.7
78	Michael Barrett	TOR	174	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.8
79	Luke Carlin	ARI	176	-0.9	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.8
80	Kyle Phillips	TOR	186	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-0.9
81	Jesus Flores	WSN	980	0.4	-1.2	0.5	-0.6	-0.9
82	Jose Molina	NYY	1533	-0.9	-0.9	0.3	0.3	-1.1
83	Jamie Burke	SEA	424	0.7	-0.8	0.2	-1.4	-1.3
84	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	3042	-0.7	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	-1.5
85	Victor Martinez	BOS	1173	-1.5	1.0	-1.3	0.2	-1.6
86	Ramon Castro	CHW	975	-1.8	1.0	-0.9	0.2	-1.6
87	Rob Johnson	SEA	2927	2.4	-3.8	0.5	-1.0	-1.8
88	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2754	-1.0	0.5	-0.5	-1.0	-2.0
89	Chad Moeller	BAL	1116	-3.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	-2.1
90	Jeff Mathis	LAA	2902	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-2.1
91	Paul Phillips	COL	502	-1.8	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	-2.3
92	Mike Redmond	MIN	1513	-4.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	-2.5
93	Robinzon Diaz	PIT	1268	-1.0	-1.6	-0.3	0.2	-2.6
94	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	2438	-5.1	0.5	1.3	0.5	-2.9
95	Brayan Pena	KCR	1012	-0.5	-3.1	0.5	0.2	-2.9
96	Brian McCann	ATL	4763	-0.7	1.8	-0.4	-3.6	-3.0
97	Chris Snyder	ARI	1962	-1.3	-3.0	1.0	0.4	-3.0
98	Eli Whiteside	SFG	1348	1.0	-2.2	-0.7	-1.2	-3.2
99	John Baker	FLA	3919	-2.6	-0.5	-0.9	0.7	-3.2
100	Paul Bako	PHI	1328	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3	-2.0	-3.3
101	Russell Martin	LAD	5205	1.5	-5.1	-0.7	1.0	-3.3
102	Bengie Molina	SFG	4582	-1.0	-2.6	0.9	-0.6	-3.4
103	Jason Varitek	BOS	4133	-10.7	5.1	0.7	0.8	-4.1
104	George Kottaras	BOS	1166	-1.8	-3.0	0.1	0.2	-4.4
105	Jason Kendall	MIL	5296	-2.9	-1.5	-1.1	1.0	-4.5
106	John Buck	KCR	1693	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0	0.3	-4.8
107	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	4927	-4.5	-0.8	1.1	-0.6	-4.8
108	Jose Morales	MIN	812	-2.1	-1.7	-0.1	-1.3	-5.2
109	Jorge Posada	NYY	3653	-0.8	-3.8	-0.5	-0.8	-5.9
110	Miguel Montero	ARI	4094	-1.4	-3.4	-1.7	0.0	-6.5
111	Nick Hundley	SDP	2877	-3.7	-2.0	-0.9	-0.2	-6.8
112	Josh Bard	WSN	2902	-2.8	-3.8	-0.4	-0.2	-7.3
113	Miguel Olivo	KCR	3821	0.7	-7.8	-0.9	-0.8	-8.8
114	Mike Napoli	LAA	3468	-4.3	-3.1	-0.6	-1.6	-9.7

Probably misusing MLE: Where could the Brewers have done better?

KLSnow — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Looking for some idle speculation on the first Brewer-free Sunday afternoon since February? Here's something to play with.

Because of Jeff's brilliant work over at Minor League Splits, we can take any Brewer above rookie ball's minor league stats and get their MLE (major league equivalent), a baseline estimate of how they would have performed in the major leagues this season.

So without further adieu, here's a look at how Brewer minor leaguers might have performed in the majors in 2009, and how it compares to the players the Brewers actually used in their place.

Catcher

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Jonathan Lucroy	Huntsville (AA)	.267/.377/.416	.219/.307/.327	.634
Angel Salome	Nashville (AAA)	.288/.338/.420	.249/.285/.342	.627
J.R. Hopf	Huntsville (AA)	.249/.318/.363	.206/.258/.291	.549
Corey Kemp	Wisconsin (A-)	.269/.364/.379	.182/.239/.245	.484
Carlos Corporan	Nashville (AAA)	.217/.262/.285	.192/.230/.250	.480

Brewers used: Jason Kendall, who hit .241/.331/.305 (.636 OPS), and Mike Rivera, who hit .228/.326/.342 (.668 OPS)

This is likely the most obvious position where you can make a solid argument that one of the minor leaguers should have played over the guy the Brewers trotted out there. Kendall had a nice finish to 2009, batting .271/.370/.391 after August 7, but still only out OPS'ed the hypothetical performance of Jonathan Lucroy by two points, with Angel Salome not far behind him.

Beyond Lucroy and Salome, it's a long way down to the next level, though. Corey Kemp's 2009 performance was pretty impressive in Wisconsin, but he's easily the third best catcher in the system above rookie ball right now, and he's still a long way away.

Follow the jump for the other positions!

First Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Joe Koshansky	Nashville (AAA)	.218/.319/.441	.189/.267/.358	.625
Erick Almonte	Nashville (AAA)	.295/.367/.365	.253/.307/.301	.608
Kevin Melillo	Huntsville (AA)	.249/.344/.392	.207/.280/.309	.589
Steffan Wilson	Brevard Co. (A+)	.272/.352/.420	.208/.266/.308	.574
Brock Kjeldgaard	Wisconsin (A-)	.248/.340/.454	.167/.221/.278	.499

Clearly, none of these guys are even comparable to Prince Fielder, who posted a 1.014 OPS this season.

In fact, the complete lack of a viable first baseman in the upper levels of the minors is a little startling. If something were to happen to Fielder, the best internal options to replace him would almost certainly be in the big leagues now: Mat Gamel and/or Casey McGehee.

With that said, Steffan Wilson's performance in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is notable, and Brock Kjeldgaard had a decent offensive season overshadowed by the fact that he led his league in strikeouts for the second straight season.

Second Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Hernan Iribarren	Nashville (AAA)	.307/.360/.396	.269/.310/.335	.645
Shane Justis	Huntsville (AA)	.271/.339/.376	.225/.278/.309	.587
Eric Farris	Brevard Co. (A+)	.302/.344/.388	.238/.270/.304	.574
Brett Lawrie	Wisconsin (A-)	.275/.342/.438	.192/.232/.282	.514

These are the only four players above rookie ball who played a full season with second base as their primary position. The Brewers used Rickie Weeks (.857 OPS) and Felipe Lopez (.810 OPS) primarily at second, and obviously there's no comparison.

The upside is pretty low among the upper level guys: Iribarren had a nice season in AAA, but likely projects as little more than a utility/backup type in the majors. 2009 was Justis' first season as a Brewer. He's 26 years old in AA.

With that said, there's a lot of upside in the lower levels. Eric Farris had a very good season for Brevard County, and added 70 steals in 76 attempts. With that said, he's been leapfrogged in the organization by Brett Lawrie, who continues his rapid ascent toward the big leagues.

Third Base

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Adam Heether	Nashville (AAA)	.300/.398/.506	.256/.334/.409	.743
Mat Gamel	Nashville (AAA)	.281/.368/.479	.242/.309/.388	.697
Taylor Green	Huntsville (AA)	.267/.344/.372	.220/.276/.308	.584
Zelous Wheeler	Brevard Co. (A+)	.263/.365/.383	.199/.273/.283	.556
Juan Sanchez	Wisconsin (A-)	.249/.308/.318	.172/.207/.221	.428

The Brewers used Casey McGehee (.859 OPS), Craig Counsell (.766 OPS), Bill Hall (.606 OPS) and Mat Gamel (.760 OPS) at third.

Behold Adam Heether. While most of the talk about Brewer minor leaguers this season revolved around guys like Alcides Escobar, Gamel, Salome, Lucroy and Lawrie, Heether quietly outhit all of them. And while Craig Counsell had an incredible and unlikely bounce back season, Heether's MLE line is nearly comparable. He also played five positions this season to keep his bat in the lineup while Mat Gamel played third.

Behind him and Gamel, Taylor Green had a season to forget, and Zelous Wheeler's ability to get on base made him valuable in the Manatees' lineup. Sanchez was one of the last players drafted in the minor league phase of last year's Rule 5 draft, and played all over the diamond for Wisconsin and Brevard Co. despite never having played above the Gulf Coast League.

Shortstop

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Alcides Escobar	Nashville (AAA)	.298/.351/.411	.259/.301/.345	.646
Sergio Miranda	Brevard Co. (A+)	.297/.355/.380	.229/.272/.292	.564
Yohannis Perez	Huntsville (AA)	.262/.314/.353	.221/.259/.287	.546
Michael Garciaparra	Huntsville (AA)	.216/.302/.261	.184/.249/.223	.472
Brent Brewer	Brevard Co. (A+)	.226/.290/.291	.176/.224/.231	.455

The Brewers used J.J. Hardy (.659 OPS) and Alcides Escobar (.701 OPS)

Alcides Escobar's AAA performance and J.J. Hardy's service time status combined to be just enough to get Escobar into the big leagues for good back in August, and we'll see what happens from there.

Meanwhile, there's not much in the system behind Escobar. The next viable shortstop prospect behind him may very well be 2009 draft pick Josh Prince, who hit .263/.373/.313 between Helena and Wisconsin this season and stole 38 bases in 50 attempts. The Brewers have to be close to running out of patience with Brent Brewer, who repeated Brevard Co. in 2009 and was actually significantly worse in his second attempt.

Outfielders

Player	Team (Level)	Avg/OBP/SLG	MLE A/O/S	MLE OPS
Brendan Katin	Nashville (AAA)	.244/.306/.506	.214/.262/.413	.675
Drew Anderson	Huntsville (AA)	.290/.368/.439	.241/.303/.350	.653
Logan Schafer	Brevard Co. (A+)	.312/.374/.441	.242/.288/.335	.623
Caleb Gindl	Brevard Co. (A+)	.284/.366/.469	.217/.277/.345	.622
Adam Stern	Huntsville (AA)	.280/.350/.374	.233/.288/.303	.591
John Raburn	Huntsville (AA)	.263/.370/.345	.218/.301/.267	.568
Chuck Caufield	Huntsville (AA)	.248/.312/.337	.210/.259/.280	.539
Lee Haydel	Brevard Co. (A+)	.278/.307/.343	.219/.241/.262	.503
Freddy Parejo	Huntsville (AA)	.239/.280/.314	.204/.237/.259	.496
Michael Vass	Wisconsin (A-)	.240/.307/.384	.164/.204/.249	.453

The Brewers used Ryan Braun (.938 OPS), Mike Cameron (.795), Corey Hart (.753), Frank Catalanotto (.728) and Jody Gerut (.672) in the outfield this season. And if they'd had to dig much farther into the organizational depth, it likely would have been a problem. Brendan Katin can mash a mistake, but his exceptionally low plate discipline (35 walks, 164 strikeouts, .305 OBP) will likely keep him from ever being a serious prospect.

Meanwhile, the top two outfielders in the Brewer system might both have played for Brevard County this season, as Logan Schafer won the FSL batting title and Caleb Gindl provided the power behind the Brewers' most successful affiliate this season. Among the top prospects, Schafer is also the only true center fielder: Adam Stern also played primarily in center this season, but was terrible defensively.

Lorenzo Cain, meanwhile, had a terrible 2009 season, and didn't even make the top ten to appear on this list. Before suffering a knee injury and after returning, Cain posted a .213/.287/.317 line between multiple levels this season, posting a .448 MLE OPS. Hopefully Cain reports to camp healthy next spring and prepared for a huge bounce back season.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:51:47 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Remember that one time Jason Kendall hit a home run? And that other time? Miller Park Drunk does.

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Some things to read while feeling old.

There's not much out there in Brewer news today, which leaves us plenty of time to join Miller Park Drunk in looking ahead to the Journal Sentinal's grades for the 2009 Crew. I particularly enjoyed the notes on Jason Kendall, Felipe Lopez and Corey Hart.

Meanwhile, on the rumor front, the Tigers could be considering trading Curtis Granderson, and the Brewers are one team that could have some interest. Granderson has three years and $23.75 million left on his current deal, (plus an option for a fourth at $13 million or more) but those salaries are backloaded: he'll make just $5.5 million in 2010.

Granderson hit a career high 30 home runs in 2009, but his doubles, triples and all three numbers in his slash line declined. He posted a .913 OPS in 2007, but dropped to .858 last season and .790 this season, which was actually worse than Mike Cameron's .795. The Braves and Cubs also have possible interest.

In the minors:

Jonathan Lucroy (13th) was the only Brewer to appear in Baseball America's ranking of the top 20 prospects in the Southern League. Lucroy hit .267/.380/.418 for Huntsville, and set career highs in doubles and walks.
Wisconsin Sports Tap's website is down at the moment, but they've got a nice review of Brevard County's 2009 season and the successes and disappointments that came with it.

The Padres loaded up the transaction wire yesterday, releasing pitchers Cha Seung Baek and Shawn Hill and outfielder Cliff Floyd. All three spent most of the season on the disabled list. Baek is easily the most interesting name on that list: here's a scouting report Padres Assistant GM Paul DePodesta wrote about him back in May.

Meanwhile, the playoffs have created a grand stage on which Major League Baseball can show off the failings of some of its "elite" umpires. C.B. Bucknor's performance in last night's Angels-Red Sox game led to a poem, Jon Heyman speculating that C.B. may stand for "consistently bad," and an editing war that led to the locking of his Wikipedia page.

The playoffs also always seem to give us some strange conversations to look in on. For example, here's one on the clutchiness of Ronnie Belliard.

The TBS broadcasts this week have occasionally been difficult to watch, but in a couple of cases they've been downright impossible. TBS is blaming the angle of the sun for some technical difficulties that interrupted satellite feeds during the afternoon Wednesday. There were also some audio issues Wednesday, but they only interrupted Bob Brenly. That's an improvement, not a difficulty.

How much of a pitcher's value is tied to his hitting? Jeremy Greenhouse of The Hardball Times attempts to tackle that question by looking at value added or removed at the plate. Dan Haren was actually worth seven runs at the plate this season, which was roughly 15% of his overall value. This could be an important fact to consider when pondering the value of a pitcher like Ben Sheets, who pitches very well but likely costs himself runs both at the plate and in the field.

Happy birthday today to Randy Lerch, who won 15 games for the Brewers between 1981 and 1982 and turns 55 today, and to Bill Pulsipher, who spent parts of the 1998 and 1999 seasons as a Brewer and turns 36.

I know that's not much but it's all I have for you today, unless you're interested in a Dutch sausage.

Drink up.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 14:10:57 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Ryan Braun isn't going anywhere. Let it go.

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Some things to read while getting a craving.

Doug Melvin held his post-mortem press conference yesterday, and while this comment in yesterday's Mug has the full list of topics discussed, some jumped out more than others:

Melvin does not expect to pursue the possibility of trading Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder this offseason, but the team also has yet to make a move to lock up Fielder long term.
Trevor Hoffman's contract, previously reported as being worth $8 million for 2010, is actually worth $7.5 million, plus a $500k buyout for 2011. That link also has a list of the incentives that would increase the buyout and potential 2011 salary.
Adam McCalvy also has notes on Jeff Suppan (not guaranteed a spot next season), Ben Sheets (may still be on the radar) and J.J. Hardy (unlikely to return).

Hopefully yesterday's press conference will be the end of speculation about the possibility of trading Braun. I usually avoid them, but I've heard the topic came up again in Anthony Witrado's chat this week, and Rubie Q is setting the odds on the origin of the rumor.

Even if Fielder isn't likely to be dealt, he's one of four faces on Amazin' Avenue's Offseason Met Rushmore. The Mets certainly seem like a team that would have interest in Fielder, but I don't think they have enough young pitching, which the Brewers would almost certainly need to get back.

Meanwhile, the Nats might be a fit for J.J. Hardy. FJB has a list of possible trade scenarios that all end with Hardy in DC. John Lannan is one of the players mentioned and if the Nats are offering him, the Brewers should be listening. Lannan just turned 25, has posted nearly 400 innings with an ERA under 4 over the last two seasons, and is under team control for four more years.

Elsewhere on the starting pitching front, Jorge Says No! has a hypothetical deal: Corey Hart to the Braves for Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami is 34 years old, but has two relatively cheap years remaining on his deal with the Braves and posted a 3.86 ERA in 156.1 innings this season. I'd make that trade.

Chris Bosio's charity golf outing, which I mentioned earlier this week, is in Neenah today and it looks like the weather will cooperate. Leading up to the event, Bosio sat down with Brett Christoperson of the Appleton Post-Crescent to discuss the 2009 season at length.

Do you still have some residual bitterness from the season that was? Then you're the perfect candidate to participate in Brew City Sports' Hendies tournament. I went with chalk in most of the early round matchups, but there might be an upset brewing in the Bando division.

In the minors:

Matt Hagen of The Hardball Times handed out postseason accolades for the Florida State League yesterday, and named Caleb Gindl the league's top hitting prospect. Gindl's small frame continues to be his biggest challenge, but if he continues to hit people will have to take notice.
The instructional league season is just about over, with Eric Arnett tweeting that he'll be home in three days. There's not much coverage taking place in Arizona: that's the only news that's come out of instructional league in over a week.

With the regular season officially concluded, Andy Seiler has the 2010 draft order through the first three rounds. The Brewers are currently slated to draft 14th, 47th and 78th overall. The 47th pick is the Brewers' top unprotected pick, meaning it's the one they'd lose if they sign a Type A free agent. They're also likely to gain picks between #17 and the middle of the second round when Felipe Lopez and/or Mike Cameron sign elsewhere this offseason. The Brewers could also receive compensation picks for Braden Looper, Jason Kendall and David Weathers, but would have to offer arbitration to be eligible, and all three of those players would likely accept the offer and make significantly more than they're worth.

Yes, Ken Macha is returning for 2010, but here's a reminder that it could always be worse: Ned Yost is being mentioned as a candidate for managerial openings in both Houston and Cleveland. I think I speak for a lot of us when I say it'd be great to have him back in the division.

Speaking of managers, Hal McCoy has a great profile of likely NL Manager of the Year Jim Tracy, chronicling his two years in Pittsburgh and sudden resurrection in Colorado.

Happy birthday today to Bob Skube, who had cups of coffee with the Brewers in 1982 and 1983 and turns 52.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you'd like to read about 2002-2003 Beloit Snapper Jon Steitz's dad winning the Nobel Prize.

Drink up.