SB Nation - Carlos Marmol

The NL Central Offseason Revue: Ursine Children

the red baron — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 19:43:23 -0000

Sure, I've used it before. It's a good picture, damn it.

But first, a story. (Just so you know it's a Baron post.)

Last weekend, my mother and I went shopping. The Cherokee Street Antique Row Association was holding their annual Cookie Spree, and we go every year. There's always people milling around, free hot apple cider, and most of the shops are decorated.

We met up in South County, deciding it was a better idea to take one car. Mom tends to get motion sickness when not driving, so I generally just ride with her. We headed up 55 toward the city, then exited at the 4500 block of Broadway.

At the bottom of the ramp was an old woman holding a sign. A square of cardboard scrawled all over in black marker, I couldn't read exactly what was written but the message was clear nonetheless. It was cold out, and the ragged old overcoat she was clutching around her looked woefully inadequate. I've been conned before, I'm sure, but this was no panhandler. This was an old woman with no place to go who badly needed help.

We came to a stop at the bottom of the ramp, and I dug out my wallet. Mom reached for her purse, and I told her I would get it. I opened my wallet and grabbed the first two bills in it, a ten and a twenty. Then, guided by some internal calculus I don't at all understand, I put the ten back. I handed my mother the twenty, she motioned the old woman over, and gave it to her. The old woman said something, toothless mouth moving quickly, blessing us and wishing us well, but by then the car was moving and I couldn't entirely tell what it was. We continued on our way, had hot chocolate and apple cider and cookies. I bought an antique light fixture; it seemed like a fine day.

I tell you all this not to make you think I'm some sort of saint for giving this old woman twenty dollars, but because ever since then I haven't been able to stop thinking about the ten dollars I didn't give her. I had almost $300 in my wallet that day, and a credit card nowhere near the limit to boot. In no way, shape, or form would that extra ten dollars have hurt me, yet I put it back. And worst of all, I don't understand why. I like to think I would do whatever it takes to help someone in need, but apparently that only goes so far. Apparently there's a price on my generosity, and it's painfully low. A truly good person would have been willing to hand over everything they had in hand and never thought twice about it; I certainly didn't need another antique to litter my already cluttered house.

We went back the same way later, on the way back to my car, but the old woman was gone. I hope what I gave her was enough to help, but I can't stop thinking about that moment, when I arbitrarily decided the limits of how much I was willing to help another human being.

I've had these posts in mind for a while now, trying to take a look around the division at our rivals and what their offseasons might look like, but simply hadn't had the chance to do so yet. With my inability to post a full post on Wednesday, I thought I might ask Dan if he minded me taking today. He seemed amenable to the idea, unsurprising given the dearth of real meat to work with this time of year and what is undoubtedly a crowded schedule for everyone. So here I am, telling you what the Cubs need to do this winter.

I begin with the Cubs because they are our chief rivals and also because it simply fits. We care more about the Cubs. So here we are.

As the Cubbies head into their first offseason with new ownership, the question of payroll undoubtedly must be raised. Their new owner, Tom Ricketts, has pledged to update the stadium and build a winner, but just how much one will impact the other remains to be seen. For now, it looks as if Ricketts is willing to pour money into the franchise in order to win, and we'll have to operate under that assumption.

Offense

The Cubs' offense took a huge hit last season from the high times of 2008, due to several players underperforming. Alfonso Soriano was the biggest culprit, stumbling to an OPS+ of 84 after three seasons over 115. Geovany Soto went through an awful sophomore slump, falling from a 118 OPS+ to 79. Aramis Ramirez missed significant time with a shoulder injury, and Derrek Lee struggled mightily early in the season before turning it around.

There were bright spots, such as the improvement Kosuke Fukudome made from his first season in the majors or the continued non-suckitude of Ryan Theriot, but overall it was an intensely disappointing season for Chicago at the plate. In 2008 the Cubs scored 855 runs; in 2009 they plated only 707. Enough said.

Starting Pitching

If the Cubs' offense was decidedly disappointing, the pitching was underwhelmingly good. Carlos Zambrano continued his human roller coaster act, yet still managed to post an ERA under 4.00 for the eighth straight year. Nonetheless, the Big Z is no longer quite the intimidating force at the front of a rotation he once was. He's still solid, but he doesn't really scare you anymore. (Well, unless you happen to be something edible or punchable in the dugout, that is.)

Ryan Dempster fell off from his 2008 performance, but was still a plus pitcher for Chicago. He was awful much of the early portion of the year, but came on strong late to lower his ERA to 3.65. Dempster provides much-needed innings, and at a reasonably high level. After Z and Dumpster, though, things get a bit murkier.

Ted Lilly, a relatively unsung contributor to the Cubs' back-to-back division titles, has had shoulder surgery already this offseason. It was minor shoulder surgery, yes, but then again, I'm not entirely sure there is such a thing. Lilly was absolutely brilliant in 2009, posting a 3.61 FIP, but until he can prove his shoulder is unequivocally sound, he has to be a concern.

Perhaps the brightest spot of all for the Cubs in '09 was the performance of their rookie hurler, Randy Wells. He went 12-10, 3.05 in his first extended taste of the majors at 27. His peripherals were mostly in line as well, so it doesn't appear he did it all with smoke and mirrors. Still, Wells is a relatively unknown commodity, and may simply be waiting until the time is right to give up a crippling home run, then rip open his jersey, revealing the Cardinal jersey underneath. So there's that.

The Cubs' fifth starter spot was, for the most part, a disaster. Sean Marshall continued to impersonate Sean Marshall. The Cubs acquired Tom Gorzelanny from the Pirates, and he picked up basically where he left off in Pittsburgh. There were positives in his performance, but for the most part it was another disappointing season for the man once voted Most Likely to Actually Live Up to His Billing among all Pittsburgh left-handed starting prospects.

Relief

Carlos Marmol is sort of the pitching equivalent of a British motorcycle. Yeah, it's a whole lot of fun when it's working, and it certainly looks impressive, but damned if the thing isn't broken down and spilling oil all over your driveway more often than not. Marmol has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but not much idea where it's going a fair amount of the time. Hitters did a much better job of laying off his slider in 2009, and he had a tough time throwing it for strikes. He still struck out a bunch of hitters (93 in 74 innings), and didn't give up many hits (43), but he also walked 65 hitters, leading to a 1.46 WHIP fueled almost entirely by batters simply standing there and doing nothing.

Kevin Gregg was solid, though not the force the Cubs were undoubtedly hoping for, and he has now departed via free agency. Angel Guzman was impressive, combining a repertoire just a step down from Marmol's with actual control, but he remains very young and was shut down late in the season with an injury. Neal Cotts was, um, how do I put this?- shitty, only to be replaced as the primary lefty by John Grabow. Grabow did what he always does, and should be a definite plus in the 'pen for 2010.

Jeff Samardzija continued his enigmatic career arc, following up his 2.28 ERA in 2008 with a 7.53 in 2009. Sure, he's talented, but at some point Samardzija is going to have to come up with something more than a big fastball and a passing resemblance to Andy Samberg if he wants to succeed at the major league level.

Needs

Any discussion of the Chicago Cubs' offseason has to begin with the outfield, where they badly need to figure things out. Milton Bradley wasn't a bad player for them in 2009; on the contrary, he was probably still their best outfielder, but all signs point to him being dealt this offseason, and I'm not sure I can blame the Cubs. As much as Bradley wasn't the problem with the team this year, I just don't know if his relationship with the fans, not to mention his teammates, is a tenable one.

If Bradley is dealt, the Cubs will have to come up with someone to try and replicate his offensive contributions, and several names have been floated. Rick Ankiel was thought to be their first choice until fairly recently, but things seem to have cooled slightly on that front since Scott Boras made his comments about multiple years and big dollars for Swingin' Dick's services. The Cubs don't seem to have much interest in Matt Holliday, perhaps being a bit gun shy after witnessing how horribly wrong a seven-year deal for an outfielder can go. They also haven't been mentioned all that much in the Jason Bay sweepstakes, so I have to assume they're looking at lower-hanging fruit.

Beyond the outfield, it's somewhat doubtful the Cubs will be able to make any substantial upgrades to their offense. Both corner infield positions are set, and rightfully so. Soto will be looking for a bounceback season; it's far too early to write him off as a one-year wonder. The only spots the Cubs could look to upgrade are the middle infield positions, but I'm not sure how much help is really available at those spots this offseason. Perhaps the Cubbies get involved in trying to trade for Dan Uggla? They do have an exciting young middle infield prospect in the pipeline named Starlin Castro, who has garnered plenty of comparisons to Edgar Renteria, and could draw interest from Florida, but little beyond that.

The bullpen has to be an area of concern, and priority one has to be sorting out who will at least begin the season as the Chicago closer. Marmol, I'm sure, will have the inside track on the job, but after his 2009 performance it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion. I doubt the Cubs will go outside the organisation to find a stopper, but it's likely they'll try to acquire at least an arm or two to bolster the overall depth of the 'pen.

Priorities

Deal with Milton Bradley situation. Trade is most likely outcome.
Acquire offensive upgrade to replace Bradley's production. Left-handed hitter would be desirable.
Shore up bullpen, likely through trades. (Bradley?)
Look at other possible offensive upgrades, i.e. Uggla or Mark DeRosa as utility player.
Acquire 5th starter/ insurance arm for Ted Lilly.
???
World Series title.

The Bottom Line

The Cubs are by no means in dire straights. They underachieved badly last season, but the offense should receive a boost from a full season from Ramirez and, hopefully, better years from Soriano, Soto, and Lee. The same can't really be said for the pitching, which performed right about where one would expect, given the talent level. The starting rotation will remain their biggest strength, while the bullpen remains somewhat suspect.

At this point, the Cubs have to be considered the Cards' main competition for the division again in 2009. Both teams are clearly a step or two ahead of the pack.

There you go, folks. One in the can, four to go.

The Baron's Playlist for the 11th of December, 2009

"The Blizzard" - Camera Obscura A cover of the Jim Reeves/ Johnny Cash classic. Any CO fans out there (and I know there are some), you might want to check out their holiday 7" release, with the Blizzard backed by Swans.

"My Wife and My Dead Wife" - Robyn Hitchcock and the Egyptians

"Oh You Pretty Things" - Peter Noone I just heard this on Pop! The Beat Bubble Bursts yesterday morning, and I can't stop listening to it. It's a Bowie cover by the former Herman's Hermits frontman, and it has a bit of an early Harry Nilsson vibe to it. Really great.

"Intermezzo Sinfonico" from Mascagni's Cavalleria Rusticana - James Levine

"Take On Me" - A.C. Newman Another tip of the hat to KDHX, this time to Nick Acquisto and the Space Parlour. Outstanding cover of the A-Ha classic.

Edit: And, of course, on the day I write this, some actual news comes down the pipeline, as the Cardinals have now apparently made an official offer to Scott Boras and Matt Holliday. Sigh. They couldn't have waited just one more day? Really?

Lunchtime Prowl: Dombrowski In-Depth, Granderson Rumors, Centerfield Options, and Magglio's Homer

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:00:21 -0000

This week at Mack Avenue Tigers, Kurt Mensching takes an in-depth look at Dave Dombrowski's work as general manager since he's been in charge of the Tigers. How does he approach his work? How has he remade the franchise in his eight years with Detroit? How has he developed the minor league system? What is his approach to making trades?

Dombrowski's taken quite a bit of criticism so far this offseason, so this "big picture" look at his tenure as Tigers' GM comes at the right time. And maybe it clues us in as to what can be expected in the weeks to come.

The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers had three Tigers-related notes in his Sunday "Whispers" column: 1) The Brewers were interested in Curtis Granderson before they dealt J.J. Hardy to the Twins, but Detroit wanted more than a shortstop in return. 2) The Cubs want Granderson, but not at the cost of Carlos Marmol or Starlin Castro. 3) The Tigers are one of several teams scouting Jake Fox (11 homers in 241 plate appearances this year).

If Granderson was traded, who takes over in centerfield? Jason Beck addresses this question, and eliminates Wilkin Ramirez from consideration. Mostly because he's played all of two games in center during his minor league career.

Beck also says signing a veteran centerfielder, such as Mike Cameron, would be another possibility. (I wish Detroit would sign Cameron to play left field.) But Cameron made $10 million this season. Even if he took a pay cut, he'd probably cost more than Granderson.

One more note from Beck: The Tigers received $590,731.18 in postseason shares for their second-place finish in the AL Central. (The Twins got $1,772,193.48 for winning the division.)

Big League Stew ranked the 10 best "big moment" home runs of the past decade. Magglio Ordonez's 2006 ALCS-winning homer is on the list. But would you have ranked it higher or lower, or did 'Duk get it just about right?

Top prospect rankings are en vogue this time of year. Lynn Henning takes a crack with his top 20 Tigers prospects, and it's interesting to compare his list to others. Casper Wells, for example, rates higher with Henning than Kevin Goldstein.

If eight teams are interested in reliever Takashi Saito, as NPB Tracker says (I'm going to trust their translation), could the Tigers be one of them? This year with the Red Sox, Saito struck out 52 and walked 25 in 55.2 innings. He posted a 3-3 record and 2.43 ERA, all for $1.5 million.

(via MLB Trade Rumors)

This isn't Tigers-related, but Big Al's our buddy, so we link to him when we can. His explanation of the most annoying types of Lions fans is spot-on. And unfortunately, it hits a little close to home with me. I often talk about how the Lions have broken me as a fan and I intend to switch my allegiances elsewhere.

In my defense, however, as much as I talk about becoming a Seahawks or Jets fan, to name a couple of dalliances, I never actually follow through. I wish I could quit the Lions.

Where the Wild Things Are - A Story in Pictures

shawndgoldman — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:27:20 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

Chicago Cubs relief pitcher Carlos Marmol celebrates his closing of a game for the 2009 Chicago Cubs. Can the Cubs expect to see more of this in 2010? (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Browse more photos »

The Chicago Cubs are relying on Carlos Marmol to be their closer in 2010. Is this a good idea?

Well, Marmol is incredibly tough to hit.

(via www.fangraphs.com)

Marmol was tough to hit primarily due his ability to get strike outs at an incredibly high rate.

(via www.fangraphs.com)

In addition to striking out batters, Marmol also doesn't give up many home runs.

(via www.fangraphs.com)

So he's a great pitcher, right? He doesn't give up many hits or home runs, and he strikes out lots of opposing batters. I think everyone reading this blog knows Marmol's main issue. Control. Follow me past the jump to find out more...

Here is Marmol's BB rate chart:

via (www.fangraphs.com)

Yikes. That line is literally off the charts.

Marmol has been bad the last few years when it comes to getting his pitches into the strike zone. (Note the rest of the graphs are not from fangraphs. They're my own creations. I replicated their style so things would match up nicely.)

Unfortuantely, it gets worse. Marmol was pretty good at finding the strike zone in 2008. But he had a low (for him) walk rate rate in 2007, a year in which he was just as bad at finding the strike zone as he was in 2009. So what caused the discrepancy between 2007 and 2009? Well, take a look at the rate at which Marmol got opposing hitters to swing at pitches out of the zone:

So now we see that over the last 3 seasons, there were 3 different versions of Carlos Marmol. In 2007, Marmol missed the zone a lot. However, he was able to compensate for that by getting hitters to swing at his pitches out of the zone. In 2008, fewer batters chased his bad pitches, but he managed an above-average ability to find the strike zone. Then in 2009, he missed the plate and hitters weren't swinging at his pitches out of the zone.

What can we expect out of him in 2010? I consider his control in 2008 to be an aberration. As such, in my opinion this question boils down to whether Marmol exerts some... cough... control over whether or not batters are swinging at his pitches out of the zone. I took a quick look at the break on his pitches over at fangraphs, and didn't see any trends that jumped out at me. So I grabbed the pitch FX database and ran a query on the locations of all his pitches from each of 2007, 2008, and 2009. First, I'll show you the location of his pitches in the vertical direction. The following chart shows the number of pitches at each height, with the strike zone shown as dashed lines.

Hrmm... If anything, Marmol appears to exert better than average control in the vertical direction. He does this by avoiding putting his pitches low and out of the zone. What about the horizontal location? Well, here's the same plot for the horizontal axis, from the catcher's perspective (in other words, a right-handed batter would stand on the left side of this chart):

This is where Marmol's control issues show up. Pay particular attention to the right side of the figure. Marmol throws a lot more pitches to the right of the dashed line (outside to a right-handed batter) than the average pitcher. Perhaps more damning than the "normal" outside pitches are those that are -- as Harry Doyle would sarcastically say -- "just a bit outside." Marmol regularly misses the outer edge of plate by a foot or more. The average pitcher throws pitches a foot or less outside 19.5% of the time. Marmol did this 27.9%, 24.4%, and 20.9% of the time in 2007, 2008, and 2009, respectively. In other words, Marmol has an issue in that when he misses he often misses by a mile, and this allows other hitters to easily identify which pitches to swing at.

To be honest, these numbers scare me quite a bit. I don't see a ton of variation in his pitch location distributions from year to year, other than the spike in strikes in 2008. I fear that spike was an aberration. And in all 3 years, he showed an increasing tendency to throw the ball waaaaay outside. If that wasn't enough, teams have written the book on him. They know that hitters should be able to easily identify the pitches that are far off the plate, allowing them to take balls and swing at strikes. The bottom line is that Marmol either needs to put the ball close enough to the plate to entice hitters to swing, or he needs to put the ball over the plate more often, like he did in 2008. Unfortunately, I don't see any reason to think either of those things will happen in 2010.

Cubs fans should stock up on the Pepto Bismol... and someone should warn Ron Santo to take 9th innings off next year.

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

View full size photo »

Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Building A Cubs Champion: 2010 Edition

Al — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 15:15:22 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Like it or not, one of the keys to the Cubs' success in 2010 is a resurgence by Alfonso Soriano. Here, he launches his game-winning grand slam vs. the Astros last July 27.

View full size photo »

Last year about this time, I made this post discussing what I thought should be the makeup of the 2009 Cubs.

Brave, isn't it, of me to post that link when I'd just as soon forget about it. I was shouted down and laughed at (people are still giving me grief for the Kevin Millar thing, and they were absolutely correct), and had the Cubs put that 25-man roster on the field last April, they'd undoubtedly have had a much worse season than they did in real life (case in point: Alex Hinshaw, who I thought was an up-and-coming LOOGY, threw only six major league innings in 2009, posting a 12.00 ERA).

So let me go about this project this year in a different sort of way. A year ago (actually, October 20, 2008 was the date I wrote the post about my proposed 2009 roster) we were all still stunned and angry that the 97-win team that had dominated the National League all season went three-and-out in the playoffs. This was before Lou's "we've gotta get more lefthanded" mantra led us to the Milton Bradley disaster, before popular favorites Kerry Wood and Mark DeRosa were let go, and a lot of us were wondering, "How can we make a team that good into one that will win 11 games in October?"

Jim Hendry and Co. were asking themselves the same question, obviously, but came up with the wrong answer. Without rehashing what we've rehashed all summer long, clearly, it didn't work -- and not just because of Hendry's moves, but because players like Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto and Mike Fontenot seriously underperformed their 2008 numbers by considerable margins and for various reasons, and because Aramis Ramirez, who is the Cubs' best hitter, missed 50 games with a dislocated shoulder and wasn't at full strength the rest of the season, eventually playing in only 82 games.

I believe in what new owner Tom Ricketts said at his introductory press conference: that the Cubs already have the talent that can win the World Series, and only need a few tweaks to bring the club back to pennant-contending level. I'm also going to assume that what we've heard about player payroll is correct: that it will be increased, if only "slightly", from 2009, and thus will wind up at (approximately) $145 million. That will rank third in baseball, behind the Yankees and Red Sox.

Thus, instead of trying to build a roster simply by picking pieces from here and there, let's use that $145 million to put together a winning team.

Let's begin with players we know will be with the team next year, and their payroll figures (all numbers from the excellent site Cot's Baseball Contracts). These players are under contract for 2010 and will definitely be on the team, followed by their contract amounts:

Alfonso Soriano, $19,000,000
Carlos Zambrano, $18,875,000
Aramis Ramirez, $16,500,000
Kosuke Fukudome, $14,000,000
Ryan Dempster, $13,500,000
Derrek Lee, $13,000,000
Ted Lilly, $13,000,000

That's $107,875,000 for seven players. The Cubs also owe Jeff Samardzija $1,000,000 on the major league portion of his deal (whether or not he throws a major league inning) and $500,000 to the long-ago-released Luis Vizcaino, who pitched 3.2 innings in a Cub uniform. We're now at $109,375,000, leaving "only" $35,625,000 for 18 more players to fill out the Opening Day 25-man roster. That means there are going to be a fair number of minimum-wage players in 2010, because among the players remaining, a number of them are arbitration-eligible, meaning they will be in line for raises.

The first order of business is to remove Milton Bradley from the premises. We have had many long debates about whether and for whom he should be traded, but I believe this is top priority for Jim Hendry and will happen sooner rather than later. Disagree if you wish, but I think the best of many not-so-great scenarios is to send him -- and Aaron Miles -- to the Giants for Aaron Rowand. Between Bradley and Miles, they are owed a total of $23.7 million; Rowand is owed $36 million. Since in doing a deal like this, you would be relieving the Giants, essentially, of $12 million (approximately) by taking the third year of Rowand's contract, Hendry should ask the Giants to split the difference and pay half of Rowand's 2012 contract, which would split the total dollars (approximately $60 million) between the two teams, about $30 million each.

This would also accomplish equalizing the 2010 payroll -- or come close -- to what Bradley and Miles would have been owed ($11.7 million) and what Rowand is owed ($12 million). I think the Giants would be willing to do this, because you are taking $6 million off their 2012 payroll, while leaving their 2010 and 2011 payrolls where they are now, since Bradley is owed $12 million in 2011.

I concede that Rowand has had two pretty poor offensive seasons in San Francisco (at least in part due to injuries). But in 2007, he had a fine hitting year in Philadelphia, and I believe that he has at least a chance to return to that level in Chicago. If you were looking at the possible acquisition of Rowand in a vacuum, you wouldn't do it -- but the necessity of removing Bradley from the team makes this probably about the best way to accomplish that. At best, this could turn into a Hundley-for-Grudzielanek-and-Karros sort of deal.

So, now the Cubs have a center fielder (with Fukudome moving back to his original position, right field, improving the outfield defense at two spots), but we are now at eight players and have only $23,625,000 left. They're fortunate that Geovany Soto is not yet arbitration-eligible, so let's say the Cubs bump him up to $825,000 from the $575,000 he made in 2009. That's a pretty good raise, given the bad year he had. Now we're at $22,800,000. Backup catcher Koyie Hill made $475,000 in 2009 and had a good year for a backup. Let's move him up to $600,000, leaving $22,200,000.

I'm going to leave the double-play combination alone for 2010. It's likely that by 2011, Starlin Castro will be the Cubs' starting shortstop -- but for now, because Lou and Jim like them, Jeff Baker and Ryan Theriot will return. Baker made $415,000 in 2009 and had a good run after he was acquired from Colorado -- one of Hendry's best moves last year. Let's pay him $500,000, and Theriot $700,000, both up from 2009. That's 12 players, and $21,000,000 remaining for the other 13 -- we're getting to the point where we can actually think about signing a free agent or two or making a deal.

Among our 12 signed players so far are nine hitters -- so, given the current fad of having 12 pitchers on your staff, we have room for four more offensive players. I like Andres Blanco and Sam Fuld -- both performed well in backup roles in 2009. Neither hits much, but both play outstanding defense and neither is going to be expected to start more than a handful of games. Fuld made $401,500 and Blanco $400,000 (the minimum) in 2009, and let's give them both raises to $425,000. We are at 14 players and have $20,050,000 left. We'll need one more outfielder and also a guy who could fill the role that was filled in 2007 and 2008 by Daryle Ward, and in 2009 by Micah Hoffpauir.

Sad to say, I'm non-tendering Micah. He's 30 in March and didn't really do well most of last year -- he's a one-dimensional player, since he's really not a very good outfielder, and didn't do well in the dimension (hitting) he was supposedly good at. Since we're no longer locked in to the "lefthanded" mantra of a year ago, the Cubs can put the minimum-wage Jake Fox -- bumped up to $500,000 for his good performance of a year ago -- in this slot, and re-sign Rowand's close friend Reed Johnson for $3 million to fill in when his buddy hits the brick wall at Wrigley too many times.

So, we now have $16,550,000 left for nine pitchers -- which means we're going to have to fill most of the bullpen with minimum-wage guys. That's actually fine with me -- look at the disaster that was Aaron Heilman last year (in my opinion, Heilman should be non-tendered) -- and the Cubs have a couple of real good prospects, in my opinion, to fill middle-relief roles in Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad. They get the minimum $400,000 each, leaving $15,750,000 for seven more pitchers. It was reported earlier this week that the Cubs are negotiating a two-year deal with John Grabow; reported figures are "between $6.5 and $7.5 million" for the two years. Let's assume for this post that it's in between, and Grabow gets $3.5 million for 2010. We've got $12,250,000 left and six spots to fill on the pitching staff. Carlos Marmol is going to close; he made $575,000 in 2009, so let's bump him to $800,000. Angel Guzman will be his primary right-handed setup guy (Grabow's the lefty setup guy, or should be, if Lou would ever use him right). Guzman made $421,500 in 2009; he could be renewed at $500,000.

Our payroll drawer is nearly empty (you can almost count the remaining Benjamins, right?); we have $10,950,000 remaining and still need to fill three spots, one in the pen, and two in the starting rotation, and here's where it gets a bit dicey (and this is why I left this part for last). First, you can fill one of the starting spots with Randy Wells, who made the minimum last year and certainly deserves a raise; let's put him at $750,000 (or maybe even a bit less; he's renewable, meaning you don't have to give him that much of a raise until he's arb-eligible next year), leaving $10,200,000. The Cubs have five free agents: Rich Harden, John Grabow, Kevin Gregg, Chad Fox and Reed Johnson. I already re-signed Johnson and Grabow above; Gregg and Fox, thanks for your service, see you in another uniform next year (and please, Jim, not another minor-league invite for Chad Fox. He's done).

But what to do with Harden? If you offer him arbitration, he'll almost certainly accept. To paraphrase Longfellow's nursery rhyme, "When he's good, he's very, very good; when he's bad, he's horrid". If Harden accepts arbitration, he's likely to get pretty close to all the remaining dollars in the drawer -- so reluctantly, we say goodbye to Rich, without the arb offer, unless you can somehow agree ahead of time to get him to sign for $8 million or so. That's not unreasonable given his $7 million salary in 2009 and his mediocre performance.

For the sake of argument, then, let's say we have this $10,950,000 available for our two remaining spots. One of those spots is going to go to Sean Marshall, who, I believe, deserves another shot at the starting rotation after doing a good job as a swingman in 2009. Lou misused him as a LOOGY -- Marshall can clearly do better than getting one LH batter out -- and I'd like to see Sean, now 27 and with four major league seasons under his belt, get a shot at starting. Sean made $450,000 in 2009, and could be paid $600,000 in 2010. In this scenario Samardzija makes the team, likely because the Cubs are paying him the $1 million whether he makes it or not. Otherwise there are other possibilities, including Arizona Fall Leaguers John Gaub and Andrew Cashner, or maybe someone else who will have a good spring (and please, let's not have another David Patton scenario), for this final spot.

That leaves $10,350,000 (or just under $10 million if you use Gaub or Cashner, who would make the minimum). You could consider signing someone like Jon Garland, who just got his option declined by the Dodgers and is a free agent. Garland made $7.25 million in 2009 and had a "typical" Garland year, which is as an inning-eater; you could probably get him for about $8 million for 2010. Garland has made at least 32 starts for eight straight years, and has pitched no fewer than 191.2 innings in any of those eight. Doing that would take the pressure off the staff, especially if Ted Lilly isn't ready for Opening Day, and would let Marshall play the "swingman" role again. Or you could give that last rotation spot to Tom Gorzelanny, who made $433,000 in 2009, and save the money for a midseason acquisition.

Note that I haven't gone all DeRomantic here and proposed bringing back Mark DeRosa, although I think he'd still be a solid addition, even at age 35, for the right price, and a note in this St. Louis Post-Dispatch article indicates the Cubs may indeed make DeRo an offer. I also haven't retained Mike Fontenot, who could probably be traded -- I mentioned above non-tendering Heilman, but it may be possible that both Fontenot and Heilman could be dealt, even for low-level prospects. In fact, my 2010 team as proposed above has only two players (Rowand and Garland) who were not with the Cubs at some point in 2009 -- unless they decided not to go with Jake Fox in the bench role and instead signed a free agent (or one who soon will be) such as Ross Gload or Chad Tracy, whose option was declined by the Diamondbacks yesterday. Still, despite all the travails, injuries and bad performances in 2009, the Cubs won 83 games. With performances returning to career norms, better health and a little luck, just a few tweaks could have us returning to the postseason in 2010.

Bill James Handbook 2010 Projections

Al — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:11:01 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Will Magglio Ordonez be a Cub in 2010?

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With a day off before game six of the ALCS -- and this series has the chance to go down in history as one of the better league championship series, having already produced at least three "instant classics", let's spend today looking toward next year.

As most of you probably already know, ACTA Sports publishes, each year, the Bill James Handbook, which in addition to having complete stats for all players active in 2009, publishes projections for the following season based on a projection system that they are continually tweaking to attempt to make it as accurate as possible.

The good folks at ACTA sent me an advance copy of the projection pages from the handbook, in which Bill James first runs down the projections they did for 2009; some of them were missed badly (mostly due to injury -- Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus, for example), others (Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson and Evan Longoria are the examples they give) were pretty darn close. They projected Mike Fontenot to have 9 HR and 43 RBI -- exactly what he did have, except they thought he'd hit .288, instead of the .236 he actually hit. For Geovany Soto, they missed badly -- the James system had him at .289, with a .499 SLG, 35 doubles, 23 HR and 89 RBI. I think you can imagine how much better the Cubs' season would have been if they had been right about Geo.

Continue after the jump to find some of their projections for 2010. I'm not only going to post a few of the projections for Cubs players that they sent me, but also some projections for some of the possible acquisitions we have discussed here at BCB, mainly some of the hitters that have been talked about in potential Milton Bradley deals. (Note: doing this doesn't mean I'm endorsing any particular acquisition, simply posting some numbers for players we've speculated about.)

Let's start with a few players we know are going to be Cubs in 2010:

Derrek Lee: .291/.378/.516, 40 doubles, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 94 runs
Aramis Ramirez: .292/.364/.514, 32 doubles, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 76 runs
Alfonso Soriano: .263/.320/.487, 35 doubles, 30 HR, 77 RBI, 85 runs
Kosuke Fukudome: .265/.365/.427, 39 doubles, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 76 runs
Geovany Soto: .273/.361/.469, 31 doubles, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 58 runs

Well. If those come true, the Cubs will score a ton of runs in 2010; that's 389 runs from just five players. Now, some of the starting rotation -- acknowledging, as James points out, that pitcher projections are done very differently than hitter projections due to the nature of pitching statistics:

Carlos Zambrano: 29 starts, 180 IP, 80 BB, 151 K, 12-8, 3.60
Ryan Dempster: 30 starts, 195 IP, 81 BB, 167 K, 12-10, 3.83
Ted Lilly: 25 starts, 170 IP, 56 BB, 144 K, 11-8, 3.76
Randy Wells: 30 starts, 188 IP, 60 BB, 147 K, 10-10, 4.16 
Carlos Marmol: 74 games, 73 IP, 45 BB, 84 K, 5-3, 3.45, 34 saves

And, apparently, give up a ton of runs and finish barely over .500. For some reason, they also project Wells to have 14 HBP and 19 other major league pitchers to have 15 or more -- that seems way off, considering that only one pitcher (Dave Bush) had 15 in 2009 and that Wells himself had only 6 HBP in the season just ended.

Now, here are some projections for some -- not all -- of the players we have discussed here as possible 2010 new Cubs, enough to get some discussion going:

Magglio Ordonez: .311/.376/.476, 32 doubles, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 70 runs
Curtis Granderson: .275/.353/.491, 30 doubles, 11 triples, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 106 runs, 17 SB
Michael Young: .299/.352/.443, 37 doubles, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 88 runs
Vernon Wells: .271/.327/.443, 33 doubles, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 77 runs
Aaron Rowand: .267/.327/.423, 37 doubles, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 74 runs
Carlos Beltran: .282/.375/.490, 33 doubles, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 92 runs
Mark DeRosa: .260/.335/.418, 27 doubles, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 76 runs

And, because you'll ask:

Milton Bradley: .276/.384/.450, 25 doubles, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 74 runs

James' system projects Bradley to play 133 games and have 467 AB; both of those would be the second-highest totals of his career. Note also that (presumably) the projections for players who the Cubs might acquire are based on their current home parks; playing with Wrigley Field as their home park would likely result in different projections.

There are complete projections in the book, which is available November 1 and which you can pre-order at the link at the top of this post -- we can discuss whatever players you want in this post, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time typing out projections for others, so don't ask. Full disclosure: ACTA Sports is sending me a copy of the book.

All's Wells That Ends Wells: Cubs' Randy Wells Outstanding In Final 2009 Start

Al — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:53:53 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

Randy Wells finishes off an outstanding rookie season.

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Now here's something that can give us hope for 2010.

Randy Wells gave up a leadoff double to Stephen Drew and then shut the Diamondbacks down. He retired the next 14 in a row and allowed only two other hits, striking out ten, and the Cubs shut out the Diamondbacks 5-0. For the Cubs it was their eighth team shutout of the year (and third in their last eight games), and their first win over Arizona since April.

Wells set a season (and career) high with the 10 K's, and the seven innings pitched qualify him for the ERA leaders list -- at 3.05, he will rank 10th in the league (unless Josh Johnson of the Marlins, who will go in the season's final game tomorrow vs. the Phillies with a 3.08 ERA, passes him). He also walked only one this afternoon, completing 2009 with 46 walks in his 165.1 innings pitched -- that ranks 12th in the NL in fewest walks for anyone who has 162 or more innings this season. Randy also registered his 12th win of the season; in all of Cubs history only seven pitchers won more games in their rookie season. The 3.05 ERA also ranks sixth among all Cubs rookie pitchers who qualified for the league ERA title. (Note: Wells doesn't appear on those lists because before today's game he didn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Now he does.)

Randy is never going to overpower anyone, although today he had the Diamondbacks flailing away at his pitches, which he mixed up well. In his 27 starts he went fewer than five innings only three times, and today was his ninth outing of seven innings or more. Earlier this year I compared him to former Cub righthander Kevin Tapani. He resembles Tapani in several ways -- stature, pitching motion, the age at which he first established himself in the major leagues. And Tapani was a good #3 or #4 starter for 13 years, and was a key contributor to three playoff teams.

If the Cubs get that out of Randy Wells before he leaves the game, we will all be very happy.

While Wells and Esmailin Caridad (a 1-2-3 eighth) and Carlos Marmol (a 1-2-3 ninth) were keeping the Diamondbacks off the bases, the Cubs were drawing walks and hitting the hapless Daniel Cabrera all over the yard. The biggest blows were a two-run triple from Reed Johnson -- this, a guy who suffered a serious foot injury two months ago -- and two hits and two RBI from Geovany Soto. With his two hits and two walks Geo got his OPS above .700 (to .710). It's a big dropoff from his .868 Rookie of the Year OPS from last year, but at least he appears to be improving in September after an awful August. Geo needs to dedicate himself to losing weight and getting in shape and reporting to Mesa in February ready to recover his production level of 2008.

I was glad that Lou gave Tyler Colvin a start in front of the home crowd; he had an RBI single, and while he's probably not in the mix for a job at Wrigley in 2010, he should be ready to produce in Triple-A next year and be ready to challenge for the major league roster in 2011.

It was also nice to see Marmol throw an efficient inning, looking like the Marmol of old, even though it wasn't a save situation. This should also give him good confidence going into next year. The three pitchers, throwing strikes (87 out of 130 total Cub pitches), allowed the game to end in two hours and eleven minutes. That was the fastest nine-inning game at Wrigley Field since Carlos Zambrano and Ryan Dempster (then the closer) dispatched the Astros in 2:05 on June 11, 2007. Just in time, too -- about five minutes after the last out, a light rain began to fall.

Speaking of rain, here's a final word I heard today about Thursday's rainout and why MLB wanted so badly to have all games played this season. Up to Thursday, no MLB games had been cancelled this year and it seemed possible that every team would play the full 162 games. Instead, with the Cubs having one fewer game than everyone except the Pirates, it's possible that the Cubs could rank ahead of the Rays and/or Mariners, whose records as of today are similar to the Cubs. MLB simply wanted to avoid that "half-game scenario", but Thursday's weather prevented that. That's the reason they waited so long.

And tomorrow, we wrap things up on the Cubs for 2009, we hope, with a win to at least send us off with a good last memory.

Facing Lincecum: Cubs vs. Giants Preview, Friday 9/25, 9:15 CT

Al — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 00:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Write your own caption; another prize for the best one.

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The last time the Cubs faced Tim Lincecum, on May 5 at Wrigley Field, Lou sent onto the field a makeshift lineup that included Joey Gathright leading off in CF (the only game he started as a Cub), Kosuke Fukudome batting third, Micah Hoffpauir hitting fifth, and Aaron Miles starting at SS and batting second (surprisingly enough, he actually worked a walk off Lincecum).

I really have no idea why Lou did this; maybe he was thinking "we're going to lose this game anyway to this pitcher, so I'll give my regulars some rest". And you know what, the spring training style lineup might have actually worked if Sean Marshall hadn't given up a three-run homer to Bengie Molina in the first inning. After that, Marshall settled down and matched Lincecum well for the next six innings; each of them allowed a pair of runs between the second and the seventh.

Tonight, there will be a few sub Cubs in the lineup again (see below), but this time out of necessity due to injuries and several other factors. With Carlos Zambrano on the mound, maybe this time, the Cubs can beat Lincecum; they have done so only once before, on August 21, 2007, and that was primarily the fault of the Giants' bullpen, though Jason Marquis matched up well with Lincecum that night. I was at that game in San Francisco; here's the recap I wrote the next day.

There are only three visiting teams that have a winning record at AT&T Park. Believe it or not, last night the Cubs (now 17-16) joined the Dodgers (43-38) and, amazingly, the Pirates (15-14) on that very short list. (Hat tip to BCB reader bison for the link.)

Lineup via Twittermyer:

Fukudome, rf; Theriot, ss; Ramirez, 3b; Hoffpauir, 1b; Baker, 2b; Scales, lf; Hill, c; Fuld, cf; Zambrano, p

Paul Sullivan asks whether the Giants might be a good match for Milton Bradley in an offseason trade and posits whether Aaron Rowand would be a good return:

... both GMs are motivated sellers, and a Rowand-Bradley deal would not be out of the realm of possibility. Rowand has three years and $36 million left on his contract, while Bradley has $21 million and two years left on his deal. Obviously more players would have to be involved, unless the Giants were willing to pay the Cubs around half of the $15 million difference in the contracts.

Well. Rowand has had a mediocre year (and looked awful striking out against Carlos Marmol last night) and is two years removed from his fine offensive season with the Phillies. But he is an outstanding center fielder; getting him would allow the Cubs to move Kosuke Fukudome back to RF (perhaps he could platoon with Reed Johnson there?) and maybe Rowand has one more good year left in him. Maybe some of the difference in salaries could be made up by asking the Giants to take Aaron Miles in return, too. If a deal like this were made, the Giants would probably have to leave Bradley home during any series at Wrigley Field. It's not the only option or even the best one, but it might be worth considering.

Finally, for the third day in a row, I found a fun photo for which I'll run another caption contest. Prize again is a DVD of "Chasing October". Previous winners can enter, but can't win again (ballhawk and KaliCub, who won last night for this entry).

Today's Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Tim Lincecum Giants

8-6	W-L	14-6
3.91	ERA	2.47
138	SO	247
73	BB	63
10	HR	10
vs. SF	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	8-6	33	26	0	0	0	0	154.1	147	74	67	10	73	138	3.91	1.43

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Lincecum	14-6	31	30	4	2	0	0	211.1	160	65	58	10	63	247	2.47	1.06

The crack in Tim Lincecum's armor might be his recent performance. Is he tiring at the end of a long season? In his last six starts he's a pedestrian 3-2, 3.69 with 20 walks in 39 innings. Maybe the Cubs can wait him out and get on base via walks tonight. The more pitches you make him throw, the quicker the Cubs can get into SF's bullpen. Derrek Lee is 6-for-16 (.375) with a pair of doubles vs. Lincecum, but he won't be starting tonight. And maybe someday, Lincecum will look like he's older than 15.

Carlos Zambrano hasn't faced the Giants since 2007, when they had quite a different-looking lineup than today's, on August 23, 2007. Z threw OK that day, but allowed his opposing pitcher, Matt Cain, to hit a two-run homer. Overall Z is 4-1, 3.40 in seven career starts vs. the Giants, and has not lost (3-0) in six road starts (2.76) since the All-Star break. Edgar Renteria (12-for-31, .387) and Randy Winn (6-for-11, two doubles, a HR) have hit Z well.

Today's game is CSN-centric; Chicago and Bay Area. In Chicago it'll be on CSN Plus, so "check local listings" for the channel on your system (CLTV in Chicago and 285 for the HD version if you have Comcast in the city). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Giants site McCovey Chronicles. Grant, who runs the site, is one of SBN's best writers.

Overflow comment threads will post today at 10:15 and 11:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Baker Leads Cubs Past Former Candlestick Players, 3-2

Al — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 13:01:05 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Jeff Baker, home run hero. Who would have thought?

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As the Cubs and their coaches and manager came onto the field for the handshakes and high-fives after their come-from-behind 3-2 win over the Giants, I saw something I don't think I've seen all year.

A smile on Lou Piniella's face.

Sorry it took so long, Lou, but that one was definitely worth a smile (and worth me staying up late to see the end).

For most of the game it appeared this recap was going to be written as a form letter, one I've written so many times ("Cubs pitcher throws great, offense impotent, [insert name of pitcher here] deserved better"). And for eight innings, the game set up exactly that way. Ryan Dempster threw another excellent game -- he has a 1.73 ERA in five starts covering 36.1 innings in September, during which he has issued only six walks -- but got victimized by a man hitting .178 coming into the game. John Bowker, sort of the Giants' version of Micah Hoffpauir, spent a good chunk of 2009 at the Giants' Triple-A stop at Fresno, pounding minor league pitching at a .342/.451/.596 clip before being recalled in July. Like Hoffpauir, he's really more of a first baseman than an outfielder; also like Micah, both players were in left field for their respective teams, and Bowker struggled at the major league level this year.

Not last night. Perhaps channeling Hoffpauir's two-homer, five-RBI career day against the Mets last September (oddly, one year ago today), Bowker chose last night to have the best day of his 2009 season. He doubled in the Giants' first run and then nearly sent a ball into McCovey Cove (it landed in the last row of the RF seats) for a homer, giving the Giants a 2-1 lead.

Other than those hits, Dempster held the rest of the Giants to five singles and a walk in seven innings; he lowered his season ERA to 3.68 and he says he'd like to start two more times in order to meet a personal goal of 200 innings:

He's at 186 innings, and will make two more starts, opening the final homestand next Tuesday against Pittsburgh and closing the season on Oct. 4 against Arizona.

"That's a goal of mine every year," Dempster said of reaching 200. "I just want to win ballgames. I sign up to make as many starts as I can. If it happens, it happens. Today was a great win for us. If I can help us win a couple more ballgames, it'll be awesome."

Absolutely, and if Dempster can, say, finish the season with two wins in those starts and an ERA near 3.50, his 2009 season will be not that far off the pace he set in his first full year as a Cub starter in 2008, despite a rocky start that likely had a lot to do with the personal stress he was feeling due to the health problems his newborn daughter had in April.

Aaron Heilman threw another solid scoreless inning in relief; we've all bitched about Heilman plenty here, but in 14 appearances since August 12 he has thrown 16.1 innings, struck out 12 and walked only three and posted a 1.65 ERA. The key is the lack of walks; at the very least if he can keep this up, he will have trade value this offseason.

Heilman wound up with the win when Jeff Baker, down to his final strike and an 0-2 count, laid off a pair of out-of-the-strike-zone sliders and slammed the next pitch into the left-field seats for a game-winning two-run homer. Derrek Lee had stolen second base while Baker was batting to try to set himself up in scoring position to tie the game; unfortunately:

The Cubs may be a little shorthanded Friday if Derrek Lee can't go. The first baseman aggravated his neck when he slid into second base in the ninth.

"Every time he slides, I cringe," Piniella said. "What happened probably is when he came in, someone tapped him on the head scoring the run in the ninth, and I don't think that helped the situation either."

That's why Hoffpauir moved from LF to 1B for the last of the ninth, which Carlos Marmol finished off without too much incident for his 15th save (and 12th in a row). It was one of the best games of 2009, preventing the Cardinals from clinching the NL Central for another day. I woke up this morning to a voicemail from my dad, who lives in San Francisco, telling me some friends invited him to the game. Glad he got to see such a good one -- that's two Cubs wins he has seen this year, including this one at Wrigley Field on May 14.

It's nice to see wins like this; they give great hope for the future. Keep up the good work -- let's see more smiles on Lou's face.

Finally, the winner of last night's photo caption contest is KaliCub, who submitted this entry:

In a stunning display of one-upmanship, the Cubs fail when Jake Fox jumps and rest of Cubs fielders fall down, only to find out that Jake didn’t catch the ball.

KaliCub, please email me your address so I can send you the DVD. Thanks for all the entries!

Milton Bradley Suspended; Cubs Win In Extra Innings

Al — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 13:04:59 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Jake Fox's HR wins Sunday's game. Why hasn't this guy played this month?

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Milton Bradley's suspension for the rest of the season is obviously the topic everyone's talking about this morning. I'll have more to say below the fold, but first, let's at least enjoy the Cubs' 6-3 win over the Cardinals in 11 innings. If nothing else, it at least gave the Cubs the satisfaction of winning the final game of the season series between the two teams and delaying the Cardinals' clinching celebration for a couple more days.

It was the type of game you'd have liked to see far more of all season. Carlos Zambrano stayed within himself and threw six strong innings -- the ESPN crew said they thought Z should have been left in for one more inning, but after 102 pitches, that was probably enough. John Grabow threw well in relief, and Kevin Gregg got Albert Pujols to end the seventh.

Unfortunately, Gregg wasn't as good in the eighth, and the Cardinals tied the game. In the last of the ninth, the Cubs appeared to have lost when a double-play relay was thrown wide by Ryan Theriot with the bases loaded; the apparent winning run crossed the plate. However, the umpires conferred and correctly ruled that Matt Holliday had slid out of the baseline -- even going so far as to show Tony LaRussa the "skid mark". The run was nullified and the game continued.

Sean Marshall, Aaron Heilman and Esmailin Caridad held the Cardinals down until Jake Fox slammed a two-run homer off Mitchell Boggs; Carlos Marmol dispatched St. Louis easily in the last of the 11th and the Cubs had their 76th win of the season.

The Milton Bradley signing was doomed to fail from the moment it was made. First, Bradley was supposedly signed due to Lou's "we're not lefthanded enough" mantra. The switch-hitting Bradley has the following career numbers:

as right-handed hitter: .305/.385/.496 (.881 OPS)
as left-handed hitter: .266/.365/.431 (.796 OPS)

So right from the beginning, the Cubs were getting someone who hit significantly worse, as a switch-hitter, from the side that they supposedly needed the most production. His 2009 splits were even more extreme:

as right-handed hitter: .324/.375/.431 (.806 OPS)
as left-handed hitter: .234/.379/.385 (.734 OPS)

Note: both of the above stat boxes include an 0-for-3 that Bradley registered while batting right-handed vs. a RHP this year.

From that standpoint, the Cubs would have been far better off in 2009 with Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, or yes, Adam Dunn in right field. Had they signed Abreu, it would have cost them far less money (Abreu's making only $5 million this year), which might have allowed a mid-season acquisition along the lines of a Holliday -- who could have filled in while Alfonso Soriano had the knee surgery that he should probably have had in May, or a Mark DeRosa, who could have filled in while Aramis Ramirez was out. Jim Hendry bid against himself for Bradley, and now finds himself with more than $20 million that he has to remove from the payroll. There is no doubt in my mind that Bradley won't be back -- even if Tom Ricketts has to give the go-ahead to eat Bradley's contract.

A big thank-you to Bruce Miles, who broke this story on Saturday unintentionally; he was simply trying to ask Bradley some questions about his knee injury and place in the lineup, questions that were mild and that any ballplayer should be able to quickly give rote answers to. Instead, Bradley threw the entire Cubs organization, players, media and fans under the bus, and Bruce's quote of Ryan Dempster, I think, is telling:

"To say that everybody's out to get you and the reporters are looking for you and always looking to stick a microphone in your face, well, if you notice that they're always for you, I think maybe you're always looking for them," Dempster said. "I've been here six years now and haven't had a problem with anybody here. D-Lee's been here, Z, a lot of guys for a long time. Yeah, you have some tough times, but the city's great. The fans are great. You've got to realize sometimes the consequences of your own actions."

Dempster's a smart guy and he's got it exactly right. There are several other player quotes in Carrie Muskat's cubs.com article that I believe are illuminating and further, put the lie to the often-posted-here statement that "everyone says Milton is a great teammate".

Reed Johnson:

"That's tough for a guy like me to understand," Johnson said. "I came from Toronto and fell in love with the city [of Chicago] and fell in love with the organization. It's hard for me to believe you can come to this city and come to this organization and not enjoy your time here.

"I've heard guys like Eric Karros and Jason Kendall say if you're playing Major League Baseball over a long career, you have to play at least one year for the Chicago Cubs. It's a good thing, not a bad thing. I think all of us are really surprised that a player could come here and not have the time of his life."

Ryan Theriot:

Ryan Theriot's locker was next to Bradley's at Wrigley Field, and the shortstop tried to reach out to him.

"There were good days and bad days," Theriot said.

Derrek Lee:

The Cubs first baseman called Bradley after he and manager Lou Piniella got into a shouting match at U.S. Cellular Field during an Interleague game.

"I think this is a different situation," Lee said. "I would let him reach out to me on this one. He got suspended for the season. There's not much I can do to help him on that one. If he needed to talk, I'd talk."

Lee's locker is on the other side of Bradley's. What was his take on him?

"He's a quiet guy," Lee said. "I think he likes his privacy. ... I think a lot of frustration built up in him and he didn't let it out the right way."

Aramis Ramirez:

"I don't know," Ramirez said when asked if Bradley could come back. "I don't think so."

Aramis Ramirez, a guy who doesn't say much and goes out and does his job, especially in a year where he's suffered a serious injury, saying he doesn't think Bradley could come back -- that's a damning indictment. The most descriptive line I think I heard from someone who's met Bradley is that he's a "strange dude". He also broke commitments; George Castle of true/slant.com writes:

No doubt Bradley talked a good game in persuading the Cubs to sign him last winter. He briefly seduced me during his introductory press conference in January the situation was different and Chicago would finally provide a baseball home for him. I even wrote he could rack up MVP numbers with that kind of attitude. Unfortunately, it was wishful thinking for Bradley, the Cubs and me. The real Bradley was soon exposed. See a previous blog about my experience with the outfielder, who stiffed me three times in four days after he had committed to doing an interview for my syndicated baseball radio show "Diamond Gems."

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times makes it clear that the problems originated with Bradley:

Around the middle of the season, Bradley told a reporter he felt "isolated" in the clubhouse.

"I think for the most part that was his choice,"said Reed Johnson, whom Bradley once gave credit for getting in his face and helping straighten him out -- however temporary.

Said Piniella: "I just know that last year, I don't know how many times I heard from the media that we had the best clubhouse in the league. And things don't change that rapidly in a year."

Paul Sullivan of the Tribune quotes Hendry:

"The last few days became too much for me to tolerate," Hendry said. "I'm certainly not going to let our great fans become an excuse. I'm not going to tolerate not being able to answer questions from the media respectfully. Whether you feel like talking or not, it's part of all of our jobs.

"There's a right way to do it and a wrong way. I'm not going to allow disrespect to other people in that locker room and uniformed personnel, and I'm certainly not going to let a player, as was mentioned in the article today, (talk about) negativity of the organization."

Jim -- I think you did this to yourself. You didn't do your due diligence in trying to find out exactly what makes Milton Bradley tick. His blowups were well-documented, and there were, according to Sullivan's article, more troubles than we knew, even recently:

Bradley had been more erratic than usual this weekend, telling teammates he was having marital difficulties and sparring with hitting coach Von Joshua. Hendry spent the last three days contemplating the suspension.

The final beat-writer quote goes again to Bruce Miles, whose article contains many of the above quotes, and also this from Lou:

"I read some of his comments," Piniella said. "I can tell you this, that I've been here three years and I feel blessed that I've been able to spend three wonderful years here in Chicago. What a great city. Wrigley Field, what a fun place to play. And our fans are second to none."

Thank you, Lou. We may disagree with Lou's decisions and his apparent lack of interest this year, but he's got that right. Maybe the "disenchantment" that Bruce Miles says Lou had with Bradley all year had something to do with what appeared to be Lou sleepwalking through the 2009 season.

The final words, since this is my site, go to me. As noted above, this move was doomed to fail from January 6, the day it happened, for both on- and off-field reasons. It's almost certain that Milton Bradley has played his last game in a Cubs uniform, and for that I am glad. He's been a distraction and did not produce on the field. Why would you want a guy like that on your team? The situation is somewhat comparable, though more extreme, to the situation seven years ago involving Todd Hundley, also signed as a big-name free agent and who had the same production and complaining problems, although he simply complained TO the media, not ABOUT them, and didn't affect his teammates as negatively as Bradley has.

Jim Hendry was able to turn Hundley into two productive players who helped the Cubs win the NL Central in 2003. Perhaps he can perform the same thing with Bradley; it's been suggested by some that the Cubs might be able to send him to Toronto for Vernon Wells. Though Wells' contract is almost as onerous as Alfonso Soriano's, I'd do it. There's at least a chance that Wells will return to previous levels of production, and the alternative is probably simply to send Bradley home and pay him for doing nothing.

I never rooted against Milton Bradley when he was wearing a Cubs uniform. Had he produced, he would have helped the Cubs win games and that would have been a good thing. But starting from the injury in Milwaukee and the brief suspension that resulted from his tirade in his first Wrigley Field at-bat, Bradley was never a good fit for the Cubs, either emotionally or in the lineup. I'll be very happy when this chapter in Cubs history is just that -- history.