SB Nation - Tim Alderson

Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:16:26 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen drives in two-runs with a single off Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher George Sherrill in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009.(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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Pittsburgh Pirates Top 20 Prospects for 2010

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Grade A: Bat looks excellent. Even if he moves to first base, his bat will be good enough for him to be an All-Star. Upside: David Ortiz.

2) Jose Tabata, OF, Grade B: I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside.

3) Tony Sanchez, C, Grade B: He was a slight overdraft but I like him, excellent defense and it doesn't look like his power was all aluminum.

4) Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, Grade B-: This is an aggressive grade for a high school pitcher with just one pro inning under his belt, but I really like his pitchability and have a strong intuitive feeling about him. He still has some projection left, too. Going to take a risk with this one and put him ahead of Alderson and Lincoln.

5) Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Loss of velocity and break on the curve is troubling, but he's still a guy who held his own in Double-A at age 20. Stock has dropped but still an intriguing property as an inning-eater type. Ranks ahead of Lincoln because he's younger.

6) Brad Lincoln, RHP, Grade C+: Borderline B-. Command looks all the way back, but components are more those of an inning-eater type than a true ace.

7) Chase D'arnaud, INF, Grade C+: Speed, on-base ability, solid defense, might develop more pop. At worst a good utility guy and could get beyond that.

8) Starling Marte, OF, Grade C+: Uber-tools, particularly speed, but raw with the strike zone.

9) Rudy Owens, LHP, Grade C+: Outstanding K/BB ratio. Was hittable after moving up to Lynchburg, though he maintained a good strikeout rate. Great command of decent stuff but need to see in Double-A.

10) Ronald Uviedo, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm stands out but unsure of future role.

11) Victor Black, RHP, Grade C+: Another live arm, Dallas Baptist product has high ceiling but needs better control.

12) Daniel McCutchen, RHP, Grade C+: Old for a rookie at age 27, but has nothing left to prove in the minors and knows how to pitch. Another guy with a great K/BB ratio.

13) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect snapped up from the Mariners, could rank as high as 10^th.

14) Robbie Grossman, OF, Grade C+: High strikeout rate is off-putting, but he also draws walks, steals bases, and has untapped power potential.

15) Diego Moreno, RHP, Grade C+: Lively relief arm came out of nowhere, need to see at higher levels but could advance quickly as a pen asset.

16) Justin Wilson, LHP, Grade C+: Component ratios at Lynchburg weren't great, but he has a good arm and lefties with above average stuff get plenty of chances.

17) Colton Cain, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank as high as 12^th. Another high-ceiling arm bought away from college like Von Rosenberg, though not as polished.

18) Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Grade C: Baseball America has him at 10^th on their Pirates list due to his tools, but I'm starting to doubt the bat and his skills seem to be stagnating.

19) Trent Stevenson, RHP, Grade C: Another young projectable high school arm bought out of college ball.

20) Brooks Pounders, RHP, Grade C: Less projectable than Stevenson but another interesting prep arm. The rotation in the New York-Penn League and/or Low-A is going to be really intriguing in 2010.

OTHERS: (Grade Cs): Ramon Aguero, RHP; Nate Baker, LHP; Ramon Cabrera, C; Evan Chambers, OF; Jarek Cunningham, INF; Zack Dodson, LHP; Wesley Freeman, OF; Brian Friday, SS; Brock Holt, INF; Jeff Inman, RHP; Quincy Latimore, OF; Jeff Locke, LHP; Jordy Mercer, SS; Quinton Miller, RHP; Bryan Morris, RHP; Danny Moskos, LHP; John Raynor, OF; Hunter Strickland, RHP; Donald Veal, LHP; Neil Walker, 3B.

This farm system is improving, thanks to trades, more aggressive drafting, and additional scouting in Latin America.

Alvarez is the crown jewel, of course, and there isn't a lot really that needs to be said about him. Tabata is a more difficult case, since even if they're right about his age, he risks tweenerdom if his power doesn't come along. I like Tony Sanchez a lot and people need to lay off about the decision to draft him. They poured a ton of money into projectable guys in later rounds, and I think the strategy of mixing skill players with tool players will pay dividends.

The system is thin in position players beyond the top group. I like d'Arnaud but he may end up as just a good role player and not a starter. We'll know more once he faces Double-A pitching. Marte could be anything from a big star to a huge bust. Heavy investments have been made in young pitching recently. I like Von Rosenberg the best of the bunch, but Cain, Pounders, Stevenson, Dodson, and Miller all have significant upside potential. There are also live-armed guys who could help in the bullpen relatively soon, and there are inning-eaters such as Lincoln, Alderson, and Strickland to provide some leavening to the upside guys.

If what I saw in Arizona is any indication, Donald Veal could be a surprise success in 2010.

The Pirates could use some additional bats to go with all these arms, but overall this is an organization on the right track in terms of player development. The debut of Andrew McCutchen was just the first step.

Down on the Farm: Part 2 of Interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 14:00:16 -0000

Here is the part 2 of the two part interview with Adam Foster from Project Prospect. Foster and the guys over at Project Prospect recently posted their top 15 catching prospects, so head on over to Project Prospect and check out their top 15 rankings.

Fake Teams: Aside from the AFL, what prospects that you have seen this year made the biggest leap forward? Step back?

Adam Foster: James Darnell is a guy who I went well out of my way to see this year. His swing really impressed me at Minor League Spring Training. He's very athletic with a good chance of sticking at third base. And his power potential is outstanding.

Some of my colleagues who are really into college statistics pointed Darnell out as a guy who may have fallen further than he should have in the draft - he wasn't healthy his junior season. Then I bumped into Darnell's Cape Cod League coach in Phoenix one night and he said he wanted Darnell over Justin Smoak on his Cape team.

I'm not saying that Darnell is a lock to become a superstar. But he's one of the best prospects in baseball. And people who aren't giving him that kind of recognition probably haven't done their homework.

As far as guys who took a step back, unfortunately Tim Alderson was a different pitcher this year than last. He lost some movement on his fastball. And his pinpoint accuracy left him. There are guys who chose to give up some velocity to gain movement. Alderson may have gone the opposite direction in 2009, I'm not sure. But even though his curveball is already a plus pitch, he wasn't giving High-A or Double-A hitters much trouble last season. He definitely has elite control. I just don't think he's a big league pitcher without outstanding command.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I read in your Rising Stars game chat that you and your colleagues are not as high on the Phillies outfield prospect Domonic Brown. What are your reasons?

Adam Foster: Guys who are outstanding fast-twitch athletes can become overrated in a hurry. People like to assume that they're athletic enough to do things that other players can't. In Brown's case, there's some false information floating around that he's an elite defender. He has a very good arm and he's fast, but he doesn't get good reads or take good routes. Those skills can't really be learned. So it's highly unlikely that he'll be more than an average defensive right fielder.

Additionally, he's really not very coordinated - compared to his peers. My first reaction when I saw him bat was that he looked awkward. He gets in a crouch to try to shrink down his big strike zone (Brown is 6-foot-5). And while he has a lot of bat speed, is patient, and recognizes pitches well, he's not going to be an above-average contact hitter. There's not much he can do about that. He doesn't have very good bat control.

Keep in mind that Brown is an elite prospect. He's in the 99^th percentile for his class. I'm just dissecting the heck out of him here. If you compare him to the other guys who are at the head of the class, I don't think he stands out as one who's going to become a star. He's very good and a likely bet to become an average big leaguer. But there are a dozen or so hitters out there who I see as better prospects than him.

Fake Teams: What players who underwhelmed in 2009 do you expect to jump back into the limelight in 2010?

Adam Foster: Reese Havens is a good one to start with. He moved to second base in the Arizona Fall League and looked solid at the position. He's a polished, well-rounded hitter who can play up-the-middle defense. He was a first rounder. And had a successful junior season in college - I'd be more confident in him if he was better his sophomore year, though. His baseball resume puts him in elite company. I'll be surprised if he doesn't break out in 2010.

Don't sleep on Jon Niese and Kevin Mulvey. They are solid bets to turn into useful big league starters. You could also end up looking like a genius if you snatch up Kellen Kulbacki cheap now that a lot of people have forgotten about him. Nick Noonan was one of the youngest players in High-A and has a lot of potential. Ivan De Jesus may not be a fantasy stud, but if you play in a deep dynasty or sim league, don't forget about him - and I'm sure you haven't ;).

Fake Teams: What prospects do you feel who should be getting more press based on their talent/performance?

Adam Foster: Josh Bell is just starting to get the attention he deserves. I guess you lose some street cred when you get traded for a reliever. But the Dodgers are clearly working under the win-now model, so I wouldn't hold it against him. He can play third base and has a lot of power. If Pedro Alvarez and Brett Wallace can't stick at third - and they probably won't - then Bell starts looking like a pretty good pick for the best "true" third base prospect in the minors. I'll have to compare my video of him and Darnell this offseason, though.

Brandon Snyder is another guy who has the resume to turn into a solid big leaguer. But you don't hear much talk about him. I'm a big Drew Cumberland believer. Matt Sweeney is a breakout guy. Lorenzo Cain has fallen out of the spotlight but I still see a lot of potential in him. Che-Hsuan Lin gets lost in the Red Sox depth of athletic hitters. Jaff Decker gets overlooked largely due to some old scouting biases.

Fake Teams: Who are your top 5 hitting prospects going into 2010? Who are your top 5 pitching prospects going into 2010?

Adam Foster: At the end of the 2009 season, we ranked Jason Heyward, Carlos Santana, Jesus Montero, and Buster Posey as the game's top five hitting prospects with Dustin Ackley, Desmond Jennings, Fernando Martinez and Mike Stanton on the bubble. Those guys will account for the bulk of - if not all - the spots among our top five hitting prospects entering 2010.

We didn't get to see many of baseball's top pitching prospects at the AFL. And I still want to get better reads on some guys. But Stephen Strasburg and Brian Matusz are clearly at the head of this class. Daniel Hudson and Jeremy Hellickson were two of the most impressive pitchers I saw in 2009 - Hudson for his FB and CH movement; Hellickson for his command. Then it's hard not to like Neftali Feliz' stuff. The five guys I've mentioned were our top five pitching prospects when we put together our October top 25 pitching prospect list. Most of them should also be top five on our 2010 list.

I want to thank Adam for taking the time for this interview.

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

Cubs

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

What About Depth?

Charlie — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:04:21 -0000

Sorry for the absence of updates the past few days; it can be hard to post when there isn't much news coming out.

Anyway, there was some interesting discussion of the BA top prospects here, and the basic take-away criticism (particularly from Mike Emeigh, a smart long-time Pirates fan and critic) is that the Pirates' farm system still isn't that strong yet. If you look only at the ten-player list BA published, I think that's true, but I don't think a list of ten players tells the whole story.

Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington have been on the job about two years, and thus have had two drafts to improve what was essentially a barren system. They've also fixated pretty intensely on high school talent after the first round in those drafts, at least in the guys to whom they've paid big bonuses. Lots of them have considerable upside, but given their age, understandably haven't done enough to make it into the top ten yet. And so any evaluation of the Pirates' system that doesn't take guys like Robbie Grossman, Quinton Miller, Jarek Cunningham, Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson into account just isn't really getting it done.

Then there's the fact that the Pirates traded away most of their starting players, and only three players acquired in those trades (Jose Tabata, Tim Alderson and Gorkys Hernandez) fit into BA's top ten--and even then, including Hernandez was probably a stretch. The problem was that besides Jason Bay, the Pirates didn't have anyone particularly good to trade. The Pirates' return for Bay was mediocre, which hurt, but it was counterbalanced by the fact that they got a very good prospect (Tabata), a good starting pitcher (Ross Ohlendorf) and another interesting player (Dan McCutchen) for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. That trade was, it turns out, a steal for the Pirates.

Beyond that, the Pirates' problem has been that teams are increasingly unwilling to trade genuinely excellent prospects. It's a hard enough sell to get two great prospects when you're trying to trade Cliff Lee. When you're trying to trade Jack Wilson, it's pretty much impossible. As a result, a lot of the players the Bucs got in trades fit into the #11-#30 bracket. This includes Jeff Locke (from the Nate McLouth deal), Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock (from Wilson and Ian Snell) and Josh Harrison (from John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny).

All of which is to say that the Pirates have done pretty well with the options available to them, and given the obstacles they've encountered in getting obvious impact talents, they've done well in building a farm system that's 30 deep, not just ten deep. And there's really nothing wrong with most of the guys they've acquired, either in the draft or in trades, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if several from among Grossman, Miller, Cunningham, Cain, Stevenson, Locke, Lorin, Adcock, Brooks Pounders, Victor Black and Justin Wilson broke out and joined the top ten next year.

The top ten still does look a bit thin right now. But I'm not sure how Huntington and Coonelly could have acquired a bunch of talent much faster. Getting more for Bay would have been great, as would signing Miguel Sano. And reasonable people can disagree about the Pirates' strategy in the first round of the 2009 draft. Overall, though, I think their plan and execution have been quite good. And I think that if Dave Littlefield had done his job and left some interesting guys in A-ball who'd just now be graduating into the top ten themselves, there wouldn't seem to be a problem. Huntington and Coonelly have been placed in the awkward position of having to acquire lots of those sorts of players themselves and then wait for them to develop.

A New Era: Giants Extend Freddy Sanchez

devil_fingers — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:49:31 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

San Francisco Giants' new infielder Freddy Sanchez, right, answers questions regarding the Giants' research into a time machine that will take him back 4 years as manager Bruce Bochy smiles during a news conference at AT&T Park in San Francisco, Wednesday, July 29, 2009.

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I know there's a World Series going on and everything, but isn't anyone going to talk about the bigger news? That's right: Freddy Sanchez re-signed with the Giants for 2 years, $12 million, replacing his 2010 club option for $8M (with a $0.6M buyout) from his previous contract with the Pirates. Isn't this more interesting than reading about going on three days rest, Chase Utley, terrible managing, and OMG Derek Yeter is teh overated!!1111ONE?//?

Yes. Yes it is. (Okay, maybe not Utley)

Freddy Sanchez

#21 / Second Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 5-10

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 21, 1977

Offense: Remember when Freddy Sanchez won a batting title? Three things to keep in mind:

He's never come close to being that good again. Thus we have an near-paradigmatic lesson regarding BABIP and the the small-sample issues of one season in general.
His wOBA that season was .364, which is good, but low given what you would expect from guy hitting .344. In other words, he was batting average and pretty much nothing else on offense. So if the average goes... See point 1.
2006 was a long time ago.

Since the .364 in 2006, Sanchez had a still-decent .339 wOBA in 2007, then collaposed in 2008 with a .292, then "bounced back" to a merely below-average .322 this season between Pittsburgh and San Francisco. Adjusting for age and regressing to the mean, Sanchez projects as a .325 wOBA hitter, about 2.5 runs below average.

Fielding: Sanchez has a reputation as a good defensive 2B, but he actually played mostly 3B during his glorious 2006 season. I decided to give that a bit of weight, and along with his other numbers, have him regressed to having the skill of a +4 2B or so. In 2007, he had an +11.6 UZR/150 at 2B, in 2008 he was -1.8, and in 2009, he was +7.4. Despite his reputation, the Fans Scouting Report isn't as impressed once I translate it to runs. While the Fans have his skills rated at +4.7 (adjusted for 2B) in 2006, he was -0.7 in -0.7, -3.5 in 2008, and -0.6 in 2009. The Fans don't hate him, but there wasn't a lot of homerism, either. Overall, Sanchez projects as around a +1 defender at 2B.

Overall Value: -2.5 hitting + 1 fielding + 2.5 positional adjustment + 20 NL replacement level = 22 runs above replacement * 85% playing time = ~1.8 WAR player.

That doesn't seem like a terrible deal. If you assume the usual amount of annual attrition and $4.5M per marginal win, this deal seem about right. On the other hand, Sanchez is getting older, and has only played 150 games once in his career in (you guessed it) 2006. The deal is probably just right in line with the market. While it is isn't really a dumb deal considered in isolation (and someone with a greater knowledge of the GIants system can fill in the details about their internal options), it isn't particularly smart. It's average. Everyone loves finishing .500, right?

Who knows, maybe Sabean will try to flip him for a prospect at the deadline next season. I wonder what it would take to get a guy like Tim Alderson?

Giants Re-Sign Freddy Sanchez

Grant — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 22:26:32 -0000

Two years. No word on the money yet. (edit: Word on the street is 2 years/$12M.)

The press release is after the jump.

The San Francisco Giants have re-signed infielder Freddy Sanchez to a two-year contract extension, club Senior Vice President and General Manager Brian Sabean announced today.
Sanchez, a three-time National League All-Star (2006-07, 2009) and former NL batting champion in 2006 was acquired by San Francisco from Pittsburgh this past season on July 29 in exchange for minor league right-handed pitcher Tim Alderson. The 31-year-old combined to hit .293 (134-for-457) with seven home runs and 41 RBI in 111 games overall with the Pirates and Giants in 2009, including a .284 (29-for-102) mark with one home run and seven RBI in 25 games for San Francisco. He was selected to his second-straight NL All-Star team this past season, and for the third time in the last four campaigns.

"We are pleased to have Freddy in a Giants uniform for at least the next two years as we continue to improve our club", said Sabean. "We saw a glimpse of him this past season and will look forward to his All-Star caliber play at the top of our lineup and in the middle of our infield. He provides a steady veteran presence and professional approach."

Since becoming an everyday second baseman in 2005, Sanchez has fashioned a .989 fielding percentage over the last five seasons (2005-09), which is the highest fielding mark among all National League second basemen during that span. He has also committed the seventh-fewest amount of errors (23) and has helped turn the fourth-most double-plays (355).

The Hollywood, CA native owns a lifetime average of .299 (817-for-2,732) with 178 doubles, 38 home runs and 300 RBI in 733 major league games with Boston (2002-03), Pittsburgh (2004-09) and San Francisco (2009). He became the 11th player in Pirates franchise history and the first since Bill Madlock in 1983 to capture a batting crown when he finished five points ahead of Florida’s Miguel Cabrera (.339) with a .344 mark in 2006.

Community Projection Review: Second Base

Charlie — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 21:45:44 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

7 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates infielder Delwyn Young hurdles Chicago Cubs' Milton Bradley while turning the double play on Cubs' Derrek Lee at first during the third inning of a baseball game at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Wednesday, May 27, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

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Freddy Sanchez was among a number of players we reviewed who didn't actually wind up with the team. Here's what we predicted.

Community: .300/.332/.419

ZiPS: .285/.324/.398

Actual (with both Pittsburgh and San Francisco): .293/.326/.416

Bonus: We predicted that Sanchez would have 548 plate appearances, thus failing to trigger his 2010 option. Actually, he had 489.

We were spot on here. A number of people were very close, but it looks like Chad Bahamas, who predicted that Sanchez would hit .290/.330/.415, was the closest.

Sanchez's numbers were better for the Pirates than they were with the Giants, for whom he posted a .619 OPS. I wasn't a big fan of the Sanchez trade that brought Tim Alderson, but purely based on the results so far, the Bucs look like pretty clear winners in that trade. Sanchez's injury issues have to be a big concern for the team that signs him on the free agent market. You'll recall that in 2008, he had an injury-plagued first half, posting a .556 OPS. In the second half, he was terrific, posting an .862 OPS.

This year, it was the opposite--he had an .834 OPS in the first half, and a .532 OPS in the second. Take the last half of 2008 and the first half of 2009, and you have a pretty good season in there. But if he can't stay healthy, and as he gets older he probably won't, he isn't much of an asset.

Anyway, Delwyn Young took most of the playing time at second after Sanchez left. It was an interesting experiment. Young tried hard and did make strides in the field, although he still wasn't close to being an average glove at second--he posted a -13.6 UZR/150 there. On top of that, his hitting collapsed completely down the stretch.

Young is a useful player, but he's probably more of a Rob Mackowiak-like super-sub than a regular player. The Pirates are considering moving Andy LaRoche to second at some point in time; while there's precedent for good defensive third basemen moving to second (or back to second) without much of a problem (Akinori Iwamura comes to mind, and so does Sanchez himself), it remains to be seen how well LaRoche can handle the position. Then there's also the issue of who will play third if that happens, since Pedro Alvarez will probably start the year in the minors and Neil Walker hasn't exactly locked down a big league job. I wouldn't be surprised if Young won the second base job out of Spring Training, but I would be surprised if he were still there at the end of the next season.

Pirates Top 30 Prospects: October 2009 Edition

Charlie — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 00:01:57 -0000

Rudy Owens (photo: Dustin Baldwin)

Since the last Top 30 Prospects Feature was a fairly popular one, I thought it might be a good idea to make it a regular feature, appearing every couple months. So here's a new edition now that the season is over; I'll probably do another one when there's some winter ball data to work with, and then a few during the 2010 season. Let me know if you think this is a good idea.

All the caveats I described last time still apply, so if you have any questions about how I made the rankings, the first few paragraphs in the last post may be able to answer your questions.

Any player with less than 130 big-league at bats or less than 50 big-league innings pitched is eligible for inclusion, unless I arbitrarily determined he spent too much time in the big leagues despite not reaching those thresholds. (I'm leaving off Steven Jackson and Donald Veal for that reason.)

Ranking about #7 down to about #21 was the most difficult part of this list. Several guys near the end of that range actually played pretty well since the last ranking but moved down anyway, because they had other players leapfrogging them.

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Altoona. Grade: A-. Previous ranking: 1. If there's anything to worry about here, it's that Alvarez won't hit for a high average in the majors; he batted only .259 in 54 at bats for the USA's World Cup team. He did, however, slug .574, and he's only just now finishing his first pro season.

2. Tony Sanchez, C, Lynchburg. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 2. Again, I'm ranking him aggressively, and given the way he performed after being drafted I'm willing to give the front office the benefit of the doubt for now, and be open to the possibility that Sanchez is better than some prospect watchers thought he was.

3. Jose Tabata, OF, Indianapolis. Grade: B+. Previous ranking: 3. Tabata finished the season slowly, posting a .693 OPS in September. He also struggled against righties for Indy, posting a .608 OPS against them. Tabata has been a very good prospect for years and he keeps rising through the system, basically deserving the promotions he gets. But he has never really answered questions about whether he can hit for power. He'll get another shot in the Arizona Fall League.

4. Rudy Owens, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 7. I remain skeptical of Owens, who doesn't have shut-down stuff and allows too many fly balls. But after being promoted to Lynchburg shortly before the last list came out, he kept doing what he does, striking out his fair share of batters and hardly walking any. Carolina League batters did have a slightly easier time taking him deep than South Atlantic League hitters did, but Owens is a good pitching prospect until he proves otherwise.

5. Brad Lincoln, SP, Indianapolis. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 5. A perfectly nice pitching prospect, but he hardly dominated in 2009 in the minors, and he'll be 25 in May. Lincoln pitched well for Team USA, but didn't have a dominating strikeout rate in a small sample.

6. Starling Marte, OF, Lynchburg. Grade: B. Previous ranking: 8. We don't have much data to work with, but so far there's nothing not to like, except maybe the fact that Marte struck out four times as often as he walked--and even that isn't necessarily a big deal for a player who was promoted very aggressively in his first season in the U.S. Marte hits for average, he has some power, he runs like the wind, and the Pirates obviously love him. Sign me up.

7. Robbie Grossman, OF, West Virginia. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 6. Grossman slugged just .308 after the All-Star break, and it's pretty likely that he was just tired. The terrific OBP suggests he's going to be a good player; the 164 strikeouts says beware.

8. Tim Alderson, SP, Altoona. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 4. Yes, Alderson is a good pitching prospect who was a couple rungs higher in the system than most pitchers his age. But what he did after joining the Pirates organization should concern us a bit, as his strikeout rate went from iffy to downright bad.

9. Zach Von Rosenberg, SP, Bradenton. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 9. Von Rosenberg pitched one scoreless inning in the GCL; as the best arm in a 2009 Pirates draft that was filled with interesting pitchers, he'll hopefully make it to West Virginia next year.

10. Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Lynchburg. Grade: B-. Previous ranking: 16. D'Arnaud hit well, with a good OBP, at West Virginia, then did basically the same thing but with more power at Lynchburg. He was perhaps a hint too old for the level, but it was his first pro season. He's a good, well-rounded player who hits for average, draws walks and plays good defense, and with the Bucs currently shaky in the middle infield, he'll have a clear path to the majors if he keeps hitting. He'll join Tabata in the Arizona Fall League.

11. Quinton Miller, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 17. Miller gets a bump after improving throughout his short season and posting a very respectable overall line as a 19-year-old at West Virginia. I probably underrated him a bit last time.

12. Jeff Locke, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 11. The only reason Locke is ranked lower than before is that I felt I needed to move D'Arnaud and Miller up. Actually, the end to Locke's regular season was terrific--beginning with his July 29 start against Wilmington, he struck out 35 batters and walked just six, with an ERA of 2.58. It's way too early for despair about the Nate McLouth trade. Locke and Charlie Morton could make that deal a very, very good one for the Bucs, even if Gorkys Hernandez doesn't come along.

13. Daniel McCutchen, SP, Pittsburgh. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 12. How you grade McCutchen depends upon how you weigh potential versus certainty, I suppose. As McCutchen showed, he's ready to be a functional back-of-the-rotation guy right now. The problem is that he's probably going to allow a ton of homers as a major-league starting pitcher.

14. Brett Lorin, SP, West Virginia. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 13. No one ever talks about him, but Lorin struck out a batter an inning all year, and he posted a microscopic ERA after arriving in the Jack Wilson deal. Like Owens, he gives up lots of flyballs, and the ERA will probably take a hit after he's promoted to Lynchburg and faces more batters who have the ability to take him deep. (And ERA is pretty low on the list of tools we should use to evaluate minor league pitchers anyway.) Still, Lorin is a huge dude with a very good performance record, and I see no reason not to be cautiously optimistic about him.

15. Colton Cain, SP, No level. Grade: C+. Previous ranking: 14. Cain still hasn't pitched a pro inning yet, but he was probably the second-best arm the Bucs signed from the '09 draft.

16. Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Altoona. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 10. Hernandez was terrible for Altoona; you have to look pretty hard to find a facet of the game in which he excelled. He's ranked at #16 because of his age, and not because of anything he did this year.

17. Justin Wilson, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. Wilson, the Bucs' fifth-rounder in 2008, makes a big run up the charts with an excellent second half. His disastrous first half now looks like merely an extended adjustment period after an aggressive assignment in his first pro season.

18. Neil Walker, 3B, Pittsburgh. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 26. Walker finished brilliantly at Indianapolis, posting a .339 average in August that made his overall season line respectable. He didn't hit well in 36 at bats in the majors, but that's not such a concern. The problem is that he hits for low averages and, unlike, say, Alvarez, doesn't draw walks. Those are huge red flags. There have been a number of major league third basemen with Walker's basic profile (power, defense, an inability to get on base), such as Brandon Inge, Tony Batista and Pedro Feliz. But Walker has less power than any of them right now, and while he certainly could add it, it's worth pointing out that all those guys are or were frustrating, though still useful, players.

19. Bryan Morris, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 15. I know this is supposed to be a highly-regarded prospect, but as with Hernandez, it's just about impossible to find anything Morris did well this season. It's too early to write him off, but the Pirates would probably be wise to keep him at Lynchburg next year; he's had a ton of injuries, and he has probably moved a little too quickly.

20. Trent Stevenson, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 19. The live-armed Stevenson was excellent in the GCL, allowing only two runs in his first 15 pro innings.

21. Brooks Pounders, SP, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 18. Don't read anything into Pounders being moved down; he did have one terrible start in August, but otherwise his year was as good as you'd hope. He moves down only because Wilson and Walker move up.

22. Ronald Uviedo, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 22. Uviedo slowed down after missing time in midsummer, but overall he pitched well, especially given that he started in 2009 after relieving in 2008.

23. Victor Black, SP, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 30. Black, a compensation pick for losing out on Tanner Scheppers last year, finished very strongly for the Spikes, and it'll be interesting to see how he does with a heavier workload at West Virginia next year. Baseball America ranked him the sixth-best prospect in the New York-Penn League.

24. Jarek Cunningham, IF, Bradenton. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 24. Cunningham sat out the year with a torn ACL, but now he's back, playing in the Florida Instructional League. Watch out for him next year.

25. Quincy Latimore, OF, West Virginia. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 20. Latimore completely fell apart in August and September. As with a few other players on this list, it's possible he was just tired in his first full season. But Latimore's strike zone control was atrocious the whole year, and that can be the sort of stuff that collapses are made of too. Still, he was young for his level and has terrific power.

26. Exicardo Cayonez, OF, VSL Grade: C. Previous ranking: 25. The VSL season ended soon after the last ranking, so there's no reason to move Cayonez around too much.

27. Nathan Adcock, SP, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 23. Adcock, another of the pitchers acquired in the Jack Wilson deal, struggled a bit down the stretch, although that's no reason for grave concern, since he pitched about 50 more innings in 2009 than he did in 2008. He'll presumably start out at Lynchburg again in 2010, but a quick start could have him in Altoona by summer.

28. Evan Chambers, OF, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. The Pirates' 2009 third-round pick makes the list this time by improving throughout the year for the Spikes--after a .631 OPS in July, he posted an .881 in August and .867 in September. He walked in 20% of his plate appearances, which is impressive for a 19-year-old at any level, but he also struck out 78 times in 200 at bats. It appears he needs to work on finding pitches he can hit earlier in the count. He also struggled against righties.

29. Brock Holt, SS, State College. Grade: C. Previous ranking: NR. Like Chambers, Holt improved throughout State College's season, posting a .738 OPS before the break and a 1.052 OPS after it. He is also, for now, a shortstop. As WTM likes to point out, State College's home park appears to favor lefties like Holt, so it will be interesting to see how he adapts at State College. (Chambers is a righty, and he hit better on the road than at home; for Holt, it was the opposite.)

30. Josh Harrison, IF, Lynchburg. Grade: C. Previous ranking: 21. Harrison has been plain awful since the last ranking, and the chief reason why is that he struck out 19 times compared with only one walk since arriving from the Cubs system in the John Grabow deal. He has controlled the strike zone fairly well in the past, so I'm not sure what happened there. He's not old, but there's a lot working against him, particularly his size and the fact that he's unlikely to ever have enough power to be a regular third baseman.

OFF THE LIST FOR NOW: OF Rogelios Noris, RP Michael Dubee, SS Argenis Diaz.

ALSO WORTH WATCHING (and thanks to WTM and his awesome list of prospects in the Dominican and Venezuelan leagues): C Ramon Cabrera, C Joseph Schoenfeld, 1B Aaron Baker, 1B Calvin Anderson, SS Jordy Mercer, SS Jonathan Barrios, SS Brian Friday, SS Benjamin Gonzalez, SS Jordaneli Carvajal, IF Jim Negrych, 3B Eric Avila, OF David Pino, OF Jesus Vasquez, SP Zack Dodson, SP Jeff Inman, SP Nate Baker, SP Nelson Pereira, SP Mitchell Fienemann, SP Zachary Fuesser, SP Hunter Strickland, SP Aaron Pribanic, SP Jhonathan Ramos, SP Roberto Espinoza, SP Clario Perez, SP Porfirio Lopez, SP Fraylin Campos, SP Jason Erickson, SP Daniel Moskos, SP Eric Hacker, SP Tyler Herron, RP Diego Moreno, RP Casey Erickson, RP Anthony Claggett, RP Jeff Sues

Could the Pirates Lose 110 Games in 2010?

Charlie — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:50:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

A thought experiment: Brandon Moss may be bad, but if he starts the season hitting .100, is he really a .100 hitter?

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That this post even needs to be written speaks volumes about where the Pirates are right now. But despite the Bucs' spectacular collapse since the trades, I think it's far too early to worry, as many of you have, about losing 110 games next year. It's true that the Pirates' play over the last month would put them on pace for far worse than a 110-loss season. But that doesn't mean a 110-loss season will actually happen. A 110-loss team would be among the worst teams in modern baseball history. In the last 40 years, only two teams, the 2003 Tigers and the 2004 Diamondbacks, have lost as many as 110 games in a season, which means that if the Pirates lost 110, they would have to be considered one of the worst teams in modern baseball history. I think there is plenty of evidence that shows that they are bad. I don't think there is nearly enough to show that they are historically bad.

The irony here is that, way back in 2007, I myself was pointing out that the 2010 Pirates were going to be spectacularly bad. I even suggested what some of you are now saying--that they could lose 110 games. Most of the core players on that 2007 team--Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Castillo, Xavier Nady, Salomon Torres--were scheduled to become free agents after 2009, and Jack Wilson had an expensive 2010 option. In addition, they had one of the worst general managers in the history of baseball at the helm and next to nothing in the farm system. That the Bucs would be quite awful in 2010 has been obvious for a long time now, and frankly Neal Huntington bears very little responsibility for it. In 2007, it looked like a perfect storm of a terrible big-league team, no prospects and inept management was brewing, and I think it was maybe only a little hyperbolic to write that a 110-loss campaign in 2010 was likely.

The reason I don't think it's likely now is that Huntington has taken enough steps to improve the 2010 situation that I think we can remove "historically bad" from the set of likely possibilities for now.

I realize that's a counterintuitive conclusion, since clearly Huntington's eyes are set at a point well beyond 2010 and the Bucs aren't playing very well right now. But without Huntington there would be no Ross Ohlendorf or Daniel McCutchen, who were acquired in the Nady deal. There would be no Charlie Morton, since the Pirates under Littlefield would not allow Nate McLouth to start and therefore to acquire value on the trade market. It's quite possible Littlefield would have started Nyjer Morgan in 2009, but back in mid-2007 his breakout would have been extremely hard to foresee (since Morgan hadn't even made his major league debut at that point), and trading him for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan would have been even harder to foresee. Without Huntington the Pirates probably still would have had Ian Snell, but they wouldn't have Ronny Cedeno or Jeff Clement. Those guys--Ohlendorf, Morton, Milledge, Hanrahan, Cedeno, Clement--are all major league players. Maybe not great ones, in some cases, but certainly useful ones, and one characteristic of 110-loss teams is that they have very few useful players.

Also, a number of decent prospects--Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, Chase D'Arnaud, Rudy Owens, Ron Uviedo, Jeff Locke, Tim Alderson--will be either in the high minors or on the verge of arriving there. That may sound like a trivial point, but actually it isn't. 110-loss seasons can be avoided simply by having a storehouse of players who might be able to fill in competently.

Now, maybe Littlefield would have traded Bay and some of the other core players, too. I doubted that at the time, though, because doing so would have meant admitting that he basically had nothing after five or six years on the job, and because he was basically acting like 2010 did not exist, as if the Pirates would be contracted before the season started. That was my reason for thinking 110 losses was possible then. Now it appears that Huntington is at least aware that the Pirates will be playing baseball next season. That might not mean much, but it's something.

The most critical point here, though, is that losing 110 games is spectacularly difficult to do. It requires either extreme negligence or a combination of negligence and bad luck. Merely being a very poor team, which I agree the Pirates probably will be, simply does not get the job done. Let's take the two teams that lost 110, for example.

The 2004 Diamondbacks reached 110 losses through both negligence and luck. Not only did they have the worst offense in the league--an outcome that is surely also a possibility for the 2010 Pirates--but they really had no starting rotation after Randy Johnson (who was brilliant) and Brandon Webb. The five pitchers who had the most starts for them were Casey Fossum, Steve Sparks, Casey Daigle, Edgar Gonzalez, and Lance Cormier, and all of those guys had ERAs over six. Arizona finished 27th in the majors in ERA, and one of the three teams that fared worse was the Rockies. And the Diamondbacks still only got to 110 through bad luck--their Pythagorean record was "only" 54-108.

The 2010 Bucs really don't even belong in the same conversation with the '03 Tigers, who lost 119 games. The Tigers only had one pitcher throw more than 20 innings with an ERA below 4.50; the '09 Pirates, by comparison, have seven pitchers currently in their organization who have done that this year. The Tigers basically had one good hitter (Dmitri Young), and the lower part of their lineup and their bench were filled with guys (Brandon Inge, Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, Shane Halter, Gene Kingsale, Omar Infante, Matt Walbeck, Andres Torres) who just didn't belong in the majors. It wasn't a case of a team merely being bad; it was a case of a team simply not taking the steps necessary to ensure that there was a real team on the field.

When I say that the Pirates are unlikely to lose 110 games next year, I'm not paying the Pirates a compliment. I'm just saying these 110-loss prognostications are the result of either over-the-top despair about the Bucs' recent play, or a misunderstanding about how incredibly hard it actually is to lose 110.

Another possibility is that people think you can extrapolate the Bucs' play the last couple months over the course of an entire season. You can't. By way of example, let's look at Brandon Moss. Let's say he's the Bucs' fourth outfielder next year and he starts the season 6-for-60, for a batting average of .100.

Now, we would be perfectly justified to say that Moss is terrible. We already would have been thinking that Moss is pretty terrible, given the way he hit in 2009. And then he went and started 2010 6-for-60. Ugh! Terrible.

But would be justified to say that he will continue to bat .100? Well, no. True, he already batted .100 in his first 60 at bats, but hitting .100 over the long haul is especially hard to do. First of all, we have to consider that Brandon Moss has, at various points, done things that suggest he can be much better than a .100 hitter. For example, in 2009 he's batting .241. Not very good, but way better than .100. Also, he made his way through the minors and got all the way to the big leagues, even briefly joining a good team, the Boston Red Sox. He has some skill, and players with some skill can usually hit better than .100. Even Mario Mendoza hit .215 for his career.

So we'd be justified to be annoyed at Moss' poor start. We'd also be justified to factor that poor start into our guesses about what he might do going forward. But it wouldn't make much sense to predict he'll be a .100 hitter.

Guessing the 2010 Bucs will lose 110 games is like that. Yes, they've been extremely bad since the trades. But they have three downright functional starting pitchers in Ohlendorf, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, plus Morton, who easily could make his way into that category next year. They have Andrew McCutchen, who's a plain old good player. They have Garrett Jones who, while due for some serious regression next year, has probably staked a pretty reasonable claim that he's at least going to be useful. They have Ryan Doumit, who in 2008 was a force as an offensively-minded catcher. They have Milledge and Hanrahan, who have shown promise since arriving. They have guys like Ronny Cedeno, Andy LaRoche and Jason Jaramillo who, while they're not exactly inspiring, have shown they at least belong in the majors. There's also at least a reasonable chance that Pedro Alvarez is going to burst onto the scene at some point next season and go nuts.

I'm not saying that's much. It isn't. I'm saying it doesn't take much to avoid 110 losses, and that while anything's possible, I think the Pirates have what it takes. Don't take that as wild-eyed optimism, because again, it isn't. I'm only saying that I think the Pirates can avoid a complete disaster season, and the fact that they've actually been a disaster since the trades doesn't really change that.

Prospect Prologue: Giants Foursome Comes Up Short

Jeremy Kempter — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 06:40:18 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

3 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey gets his first major league hit against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Los Angeles, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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In recent years, San Francisco’s clubhouse has been a retirement home, with each offseason providing general manager Brian Sabean another opportunity to add maturity and mediocrity.

But heading into the 2009 season, a silver lining appeared – and, no, it wasn’t Randy Winn’s hairline.

Help was on the way for Tim Lincicum and Matt Cain and Co. The organization’s farm system was named one of baseball’s 10 best, with a foursome as elite as any.

Left-handed hurler Madison Bumgarner, catcher Buster Posey, first baseman Angel Villalona and righty Tim Alderson were sure to form the nucleus of a contender for the next decade.

Funny thing about those prospect rankings – the path from potential to reality can be long and windy, and sometimes a dead end.

Now, at the end of the 2009 season, and we find the Giants with 50 percent of that foursome out of the picture, and another a disappointment.

First, the Giants, in a move reminiscent of the Kazmir-for-Victor Zambrano debacle, shipped Alderson at the trade deadline to the Pirates for, appropriately, the aging Freddy Sanchez.

Most recently, the 19-year-old phenom Villalona’s career was put on life support. Or maybe death row. He was jailed on murder charges Monday stemming from the fatal shooting of a man at a Dominican nightclub.

Perhaps Sabean has been smart to stay away from high-profile youngsters for the most part.

Bumgarner, 20, would seem to be progressing, becoming the second-youngest San Francisco Giant to start a game on Sept. 8, but he has lost a significant amount of zip on his fastball. While he was regularly hitting 95-97 mph with his heater last year, he’s now throwing 89-91. It might be because his arm slot has gone from about three-quarters to almost side-arm. Instead of appearing like an eventual ace, he looks like a situational reliever.

Bumgarner has had success in his two big league appearances (6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K), but his K/9 has fallen to 7.0 in the minors this season from 10.4 last year.

While he is available in Yahoo leagues, and you may consider stashing him to see if he rediscovers the life on his heater, I find myself jumping off the MadBum bandwagon.

Admittedly, it’s a pretty steep decline in my assessment in one season. I had previously favored him over Tommy Hanson and Brett Anderson. We can only hope Bumgarner has simply run out of gas, or his mechanics will soon be corrected.

The bright light on the horizon for San Francisco’s farm system now beams from Posey, who had a tremendous season hitting .325, 18 HRs, 80 R, 80 RBI, 62 BB, 68 K and a .947 OPS. He is 1-for-3 in the Majors after a September call-up and is a must-grab in all keeper leagues for that day when Bengie Molina is put out to pasture for good.

Of course, that’s also assuming Sabean doesn’t go out and sign Pudge Rodriguez.