SB Nation - Tim Federowicz

Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2010

John Sickels — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:52:45 -0000

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Josh Reddick fouls off a pitch during the seventh inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles, Friday, Sept. 18, 2009, in Baltimore. The Red Sox won 3-1. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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Boston Red Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2010.

All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2^nd!

1) Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Grade B+: I love this guy: Five Tool/Seven Skill player who can do everything. I expect more power will come. Just needs to stay healthy.

2) Casey Kelly, RHP, Grade B+: He's not a shortstop, but he's a very good pitching prospect who could advance quickly. Possible number two/three starter.

3) Ryan Kalish, OF, Grade B: Another guy with a broad skill base. I like him slightly better than Reddick due to his superior plate discipline and he's one year younger.

4) Josh Reddick, OF, Grade B: He was rushed. Most people would rank Reddick ahead of Kalish since Reddick has more power. My instinct says Kalish but it's close.

5) Michael Bowden, RHP, Grade B: His component ratios deteriorated in Triple-A, but I still like him. Very similar minor league components to Jeff Suppan, not an ace but if Bowden ends up throwing 2411 average major league innings it counts as a success.

6) Junichi Tazawa, RHP, Grade B-: Bowden ranks a bit ahead because he's younger, but Tazawa is another guy who can be a good inning-eater. Deserves another chance despite poor pitching in Boston.

7) Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Grade B-: Great human interest story and a very solid hitter, but needs to show more power at first base. I think it will come.

8) Lars Anderson, 1B, Grade B-: A difficult grade, but I'm going to give him an injury mulligan and see what he can do with a fresh start. Like Rizzo, will he have the home run power you want in a first baseman?

9) Reymond Fuentes, OF, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Great tools, will he develop skills?

10) Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+. Still projectable, throws strikes.

11) Jose Iglesias, SS, Grade C+: Amazing glove, but I won't rank him higher than this until he shows that he can be an adequate hitter. Could be an Omar Vizquel type if he does.

12) Derrik Gibson, INF, Grade C+: Very athletic, controls the strike zone, steals bases, will he develop some pop?

13) Luis Exposito, C, Grade C+: Deserves more attention than he's received both on offense and defense.

14) David Renfroe, SS-3B, Grade C+: Great scouting reports about bat and athleticism, but need some data.

15) Alex Wilson, RHP, Grade C+: Good fastball/slider combination with sharp command, could rise through system quickly.

16) Roman Mendez, RHP, Grade C+: Breakthrough candidate with a lively arm, need to see what he can do outside the Gulf Coast League, but very intriguing.

17) Pete Hissey, OF, Grade C+: No power yet, but very athletic and projectable.

18) Yamaico Navarro, SS, Grade C+: Injury mulligan. Tools are still here but will he refine them?

19) Madison Younginer, RHP, Grade C+: Raw high school arm with immense potential.

20) Stephen Fife, RHP, Grade C+: Strike-thrower who could develop into an inning-eater type.

21) Kyle Weiland, RHP, Grade C+: Another inning-eating possiblity.

OTHERS (Grade C): Michael Almanzar, 3B; Drake Britton, LHP; Ryan Dent, INF; Felix Doubront, LHP: Tim Federowicz, C; Alex Hassan, OF; Brandon Jacobs, OF; Ryan Lavarnway, C; Che-Hsuan Lin, OF; Will Middlebrooks, 3B; Adam Mills, RHP; Daniel Nava, OF: Eammon Portice, RHP; Jason Rice, RHP; Dustin Richardson, LHP; Manuel Rivera, LHP; Oscar Tejeda, SS; Mark Wagner, C; Fabian Williamson, LHP.

Since the trade isn't final yet, I decided to put off writing about Max Ramirez until I get to the Rangers. I haven't decided on a grade for him yet, but he's somewhere in the B- range I think.

As with the Cardinals, it was really hard to knock this down to 40 players; there were at least another 10 guys I could have written up. I tried to provide a mixture of upside players, role players closer to the majors, and guys I just like for one reason or another. Other guys you could write about include Randy Conseugra, Jason Place, Jose Vinicio, and Zach Daeges, and Aaron Bates. I have to draw the line somewhere however. There just isn't room to include everyone and I could spend a week just trying to make decisions between Grade C guys.

This is a very deep system, though trades and difficult 2009 seasons for some prospects (Anderson, Navarro, Bowden to a lesser extent) reduced what the overall ranking at the top might otherwise look like. They have a good mixture of tools and skills players, polish and upside. The plan to spend money on high-upside guys with difficult signability seems to be working, although not everyone has panned out exactly as expected. A year from now things could look even better: Westmoreland and Kelly are both potential Grade A/A- prospects, and several of the C+ guys have higher grade potential.

All in all, there is a lot here for Red Sox fans to be happy about.,

11/1 - Can We Move On To The Offseason Yet?

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 10:00:15 -0000

Hopefully everyone set their clocks back and you aren't reading this as a way to pass the time because you woke up too early and can't get back to sleep. But hey, you're reading this, so let's get to the links.

Creating Obscure Red Sox Shirts - Sox Tea Party

I need to look into getting myself a Jed shirt...

Chips Are in Place for Adrian Gonzalez Trade to Red Sox - NESN.com

No new info here - not even a suggested package. Even the worst bloggers come up with a package, as ridiculous as most of them end up being (MDC + Lugo get it done, becuz they can't even ask four that from the Sox!!!).

Runs Created: A First Step - Intro to Sabermetrics 101

Today’s Friday lecture will discuss the first of many steps taken to estimate a number of runs. Bill James’ Runs Created, initially published in an early version of the classic Bill James Historical Abstract (in Dan Fox’s explanation, he has it as the 1979 version), was one of the first run estimation models and is likely the most well known. As a result, it will be the first of a few run estimators that we’ll look into here.

Has A-Rod lost his postseason magic? - Bleacher Report

IT'S NOT MAGIC - it's just random variance in performance output.

After the jump, Forbes needs to retake Statistics, Fire Brand gets another prospect interview, and the Padres are taking our guys.

America's Safest Cities: America's Best Sports Fans - Beyond the Box Score

Even with the ludicrous methodology, it's hilarious how well the two correlate. Oh, and apparently, my area of residence gives the consistency of the Filter's publishing at risk. So, yeah...

Tim Federowicz: Rising up the prospect charts - Fire Brand of the American League

Can't wait until we have Wagner, Expo, and Fed-X (possibly a few more?) ready all at once. Hopefully, we can take our pick and reap the benefits of other teams needing catchers.

Hazen interviews with Padres - Extra Bases

Uh-oh, Hoyer's getting greedy. How does he ever expect to even get on the phone with Theo if he doesn't worship the Sox?!?!

Comments, links, comparing the advantages and consequences of a drawn out season - whatever floats your boat.

Stimulus Package: 5 Red Sox Prospects Whose Stocks Have Risen

Ben Buchanan — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:15:54 -0000

Cancer isn't about to stop Anthony Rizzo. via snapshots.mlblogs.com

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No, I am not proud of the title.

Alright, the trade deadline has passed, and the Sox are minus 2 prospects and a young graduate. But all is well in the farm system. Between Clay, Bard, Kelly, Bowden, Tazawa, and arguably Pimentel and Doubront, none of the arms the Sox shipped out were even top-5 pitchers in the system, and of course the positional depth remains untouched from Lars and Reddick, right on down to Westmoreland.

So, now that I am certain that none of these guys will be pulled out from underneath me, here's the follow-up to the "Market Crash" piece. These are the Sox farmhands who have best improved their stock over the season to date.

Just for clarity's sake, this does not include newly acquired guys playing their first season, improving on scouting. So that's why there's no Westmoreland or Kelly (first pitching season) sitting at the top.

5. Aaron Bates

Who he is: A 25-year-old 1^st baseman who, at this time last year, was on the fast track to nowhere. Other than his time in short-season Lowell and the ever-inflating Lancaster, Bates had never really put up big numbers. Certainly not enough for a first baseman, even one with a good glove. OPS' in the mid-high .700s. He had fair plate discipline, hit for an acceptable average, but never really found any of his advertised power. He was at his worst, in fact, in fall and winter 2008 leagues, his OPS hitting all-time lows of .670 and .714.

What's gone right: The power showed up. And with it came even better average and OBP. At .340/.405/.505, Bates emerged in AA after a change in swing mechanics before the season started. These improvements have earned him a spot in AAA, and even a short call up to the majors—an opportunity he took full advantage of, impressing in a very limited role.

Lasting concerns: He's not exactly dominated in AAA. His OPS sits well under .600, thanks largely in part to power more reminiscent of his 2008 numbers. He's still walking at a fair clip, and he's not really striking out any more. He's just not making as solid contact as he did in AA—a typical symptom of a post-promotion slump, however good his short stint in the MLB may have been. Still, for a 25-year-old in AA, this sort of breakout was quite necessary to even be considered in the future.

4. Mark Wagner

Who he is: A 25-year-old catcher who had managed to drop off the map like nothing else last year. After posting great offensive numbers (for a catcher) in his first 2 Just to ease some minds about one Lars Anderson, here are Mark Wagner's relevant lines of the last few years:

2006 (A): .301/.386/.456

2007 (A+): .318/.406/.533

2008 (AA): .219/.304/.363

2009 (AA): .301/.410/.477

One bad year and nobody had ever heard of him.

What's gone right: He returned to form. Not a whole lot more to it than that. Wagner had performed in the past, the aberration was that he DIDN'T perform last year. Call him the Red Sox minor league comeback player of the year, if you like. Given the dire catching situation at the start of the year, some folks started to take note of Wagner again (for the first time?) as he went on an early tear. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that he's throwing out about half of all base stealers for his minor league career.

Lasting concerns: Pawtucket has not been particularly kind through 61 at bats. .230/.273/.443 is not an impressive line. He also seems to lack home run pop, at least at this point, which should hurt him in any organizational battle involving Tim Federowicz or Ryan Lavarnway, who have both shown a great deal of power in the lower levels. The biggest question about Wagner has to be if he can make that jump to the majors. He's far from being a sure-thing as anything more than a backup backstop. But if he can bring his great plate discipline with him, and continue to put the bat on the ball, his lack of power shouldn't hold him back at what is, right now, an offensively bankrupt position.

3. Will Middlebrooks

Who he is: Wait, what? Some of you may remember this guy as the 5^th worst fallen stock in the Sox system about a week-and-a-half ago. Has a one-week hot streak really changed that much?

What's gone right: It's a really nice hot streak, and it's more like a 2-week, 3-week long one. Here's what I said last time about why Middlebrooks was not at all a lost cause:

Middlebrooks has managed a .850 [OPS] June and then regressed to a .702 [OPS] July. The power isn't really there, and he's still striking out plenty more than he's walking, but it's better than what he did to start the year and certainly better than '07.

Well, .702 became .949 (.337/.391/.558)—like I said, a REALLY nice hot streak. The power has shown up rather dramatically, with 5 homers in the month alone to give him a .221 ISO on the month. He's still striking out plenty, and not walking a ton, but he's 18-for-his-last-38 with no signs of slowing down (given his 3-5 game yesterday). It's also fairly telling to consider that his progression this year is fairly similar to his progression last year. If there is a trend for Middlebrooks, it's that if you give him time to adjust, he will pay dividends.

Lasting concerns: The K:BB is not good. Even in July, it's been 34:10. Middlebrooks has had some troubles in the field as well, but there was no prior indication that his fielding was anything other than good, so that should come around.

2. Yamaico Navarro

Who he is: A 21-year-old shortstop with an awesome name. Navarro has exploded onto the top-prospect scene since his 2008 time in Lancaster. Now, a sudden offensive improvement in Lancaster is often a warning flag for a sort of false boost—especially when it's followed by a pitiful showing in Fall baseball. But after a few rehab starts this year following an early injury, Navarro has been doing his best to show that he's not going away.

What's gone right: Navarro has not only replicated, but improved on his earlier results in the less-inflating Lewis-Gale Field. After a line of .348/.393/.508 in Lancaster, Navarro managed .319/.373/.543 in a rather short time in Salem this year. His K:BB ratio isn't bad at all, and is made largely irrelevant because Navarro simply puts the ball in play so often with his great ability to make contact. Navarro puts the ball in play in about 79% of all plate appearances since the start of 2008, and strikes out in less than 15% of his plate appearances. He's also shown a little pop, with 4 homers in 94 Salem at bats

Lasting Concerns: Is having a fairly typical slump since his promotion to AA. Not walking any, but he's striking out at about the same clip which means he should probably get his numbers up fairly quickly. If not this season, look for him to rebound early next season. If he doesn't, it could be a worrying sign that his sudden production was somewhat ephemeral, since guys like that tend to be exposed by AA. If there's any other concern, it's that he could end up a lot like Ellsbury at the plate—high average, low OBP, letting the pitcher off easy on short counts.

1. Anthony Rizzo

Who he is: A young first baseman whose career was threatened by Hodgkin's Lymphoma. Cancer-free for all of 8 months, Rizzo has done his damnedest to dispel all fears that it may have had some lasting effect. Hell, we've all heard this story before. We're Red Sox fans. If Jon Lester isn't enough proof that Sox players won't let cancer get in the way, here's Anthony Rizzo.

What's gone right: All Anthony Rizzo needed to do in order to be on any semblance of a track was to not look hopeless. If he was weaker, that was to be expected. If he couldn't necessarily catch up to fastballs, give him a year to get back in shape. Instead, Rizzo batted .298/.365/.494 in his first 245 cancer-free at bats, belting 9 homers and 21 doubles at the age of 19. It took him a few weeks to get acclimated to Advanced-A ball after his promotion to Salem, but he's adapted well there too. After batting .222/.323/.222 in 27 June at bats, Rizzo has basically gone back to doing what he did in Greenville, with a July line of .319/.369/.495. Rizzo is on a roll.

Lasting Concerns: Um...I suppose the plate discipline isn't fantastic. 83:38 K:BB on the year is not too bad, though, and he's still just shy of 20 with limited professional experience in A+ ball. I think that can slide. Other than that, it would be nice to see more power out of Rizzo home run wise, but this early both in his career and back from cancer, it's remarkable he's on pace for 15, so that's more of a thing to watch for going forward. There's just not a lot to dislike about Anthony Rizzo.

As it turns out, my list stayed the same before and after the deadline—a good thing by my estimation. Gotta love Theo and the $100 million player development machine.

First Half Minors Recap Part 2.5: Greenville

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:58:35 -0000

Part 1: Pawtucket and Portland

Part 2: Salem

=Greenville=

If Salem has been the most disappointing team, Greenville has been the most impressive. Halfway through the season, they have secured a postseason berth, their 39-29 record winning the division's first-half by a game. And more importantly, the team has advanced the prospects which got them to that point. Tim Federowicz, Anthony Rizzo, and David Mailman have all moved on to Salem after posting great numbers with the A-level team. Bryan Price has also managed to make his way up to Advanced-A ball. But perhaps the biggest story in the whole Sox system this year has been the fast-rising star of Casey Kelly, who pitched his first 48 innings with Greenville.

Positional Players

Tim Federowicz has been perhaps the most impressive positional player in the whole system. Coming in at 22-years-old, and now pushing at 23, FedEx as he has come to be known has had to move fast to stay in line with typical age progression. He has done just that, though, posting a line of .345/.393/.562 with 10 home runs in Greenville. And as small as the sample size is, his 1.143 OPS in 21 A+ at bats doesn't hurt, especially for a naturally defensively-sound Catcher.

Anthony Rizzo and David Mailman have not adapted quite so quickly to advanced A ball, but earned their promotions just the same. For Rizzo (.298/.365/.494), the emergence of a power game is the biggest development, especially so soon after missing 2008 following a diagnosis of Hodgkin's Lymphoma. Cancer free, Rizzo was able to hit 10 home runs in 245 at bats. For a guy who has always put up good on-base numbers, this is exactly what he needed to advance in the system. Mailman, on the other hand, had none of the track record of Rizzo after a tepid season in Greenville where he'd posted an OPS of .699, and so his emergence as a real prospect has been all the impressive. While .297/.357./467 is nothing to sneeze at, a more interesting development might be his offensive versatility. While he was always said to have above-average speed for a first baseman, Mailman's 10 steals (caught only twice) and 7 triples might suggest the speed is somewhat more impressive than initially reported. This is entirely conjecture, but given the good speed, good arm, and the fact that the Sox have tried him there before...could the outfield be in Mailman's future?

These are not the only players the team has lost, though, as Michael Almanzar was sent down to Lowell recently. Almanzar is the prototypical risk-reward player in the Red Sox' farm system. Signed as an IFA, Almanzar hadn't been playing real baseball for very long before he hit the GCL. Once there, though, Almanzar quickly showed he had enough for a promotion, posting a .886 OPS at SS and 3B. Ultimately, though, skipping low-A rookie ball may have been a poor decision, as Almanzar struggled greatly for the rest of the year in Greenville, and has continued to this year. The demotion didn't even help all that much, as Almanzar seems to be struggling with psychological issues, committing numerous careless errors. Still, it's far from the end of the world. Almanzar is still 5 months away from being 19, and these are sort of expected growing pains.

These promotions (and one demotion) have not entirely depleted the lineup, though. Still with the team are Pete Hissey, Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway, and Oscar Tejeda.

Of the 4, Oscar Tejeda is the least impressive thus far. A reportedly high-cieling toolsy prospect by at first lauded by many as a potential ~~savior from~~ successor to Julio Lugo, the young middle infielder seemed to fall off the face of the Earth, ending up at a .647 OPS in Greenville last year, striking out 76 times to only 20 walks. This year has not gone too much better for him, sitting at a .683 OPS with a 51:20 K:BB. But, for a player as young as he is, Tejeda's OBP improvement (up over 30 points) is certainly a good sign. Really, Tejeda is a similar player to Almanzar now, just without the benefit of playing time acting as a mitigating circumstance.

Looking at Pete Hissey's OPS would be somewhat misleading. At .610 on the year (this being essentially his first, unless you count 55 ABs in the GCL/Lowell), it is markedly unimpressive. However, aside from May, he has been remarkably good at getting on base for someone his age. In May, he had an 8:25 BB:K ratio. In April and June combined, he had a much more impressive 17:28 ratio, good for OBPs of .348 and .365 respectively. With a projectable frame and a little bit of improvement on making contact, Hissey's speed, discipline, and swing should get him to the majors in time as a good leadoff type.

Will Middlebrooks is all about progress. Again, an OPS of .648 is not pretty. In April and May, he essentially switched off a bad OBP for a worse SLG and vice-versa. How someone manages to record a .209 slugging is beyond me. But June was another story entirely. .274/.366/.484, while not exactly All-Star numbers, look Ruthian in comparison. While one would hope that Middlebrooks would remain hot, he is again mired in a slump going 2-for-20 over the last week. On the bright side, the power surge has remained, as the 2 hits were a double and a homerun.

If there is one knock on Ryan Lavarnway, it is that he is not Tim Federowicz. The 21-year-old catcher has posted a line of .271/.343/.510 in his first 50 games with Greenville, and would likely be playing in Salem were it not for his former teammate's production. Lavarnway has shown a good power stroke (28 of 52 hits for extra bases, 8 homers), and can really only be held back by organizational logjams. If Exposito is moved up, given the Sox' willingness to platoon catchers at C/DH, Lavarnway could be close on his tail.

Pitchers

As full of interesting prospects as the lineup is, it has had nothing on the rotation thus far. Headlined by Casey Kelly, Greenville has seen a steady stream of big-name prospects in the system stream onto the mound and, in the case of Casey Kelly and Bryan Price, onto Salem.

Casey Kelly does not need much explanation. A 1.12 ERA on a WHIP below 1, pinpoint control allowing 1.68 BB/9, and good enough stuff to rack up over 7 K/9 lead Kelly to a promotion after just 9 dominant starts. His time in Salem hasn't been as easy, but that's largely because of his last disastrous start of 5 IP, 7 ER. Given his previous performances at the level, and the fact that he wasn't expecting to pitch again till next year (plans foiled temporarily by the approaching Futures game in which he will take the mound), it's not too hard to see that there may have been mitigating circumstances. Even with those bad numbers thrown in, though, he still has an ERA of only 3.32 in the Carolina League with BB and K numbers similar to his time in Greenville. Kelly is going to be something special.

Bryan Price, on the other hand, has not adjusted as well. Performing always just short of Kelly in Greenville (2.45 ERA, WHIP just over 1, few more walks), Price took a dive after his promotion, with an ERA that currently sits at 8.31 and having doubled his walk rate from Greenville. A high K number (30 in 26 innings) and a good ground ball ratio both suggest that Price has been unlucky, and his last start—a 7 inning, 3 run effort—was a step in the right direction.

Of the starters that remain in Greenville from the beginning of the year, the big names are Stolmy Pimentel, Hunter Strickland, and Caleb Clay. Stolmy, one of the brightest rising stars in the Sox system, is a 19-year-old IFA from 2006. If there's one thing to worry about for Stolmy, it's the hits and the earned runs. Right now, his ERA sits at an impressive 2.77. This seems to clash, however, with his 82 hits in 68 innings. To his credit, he keeps the ball in the park and seems to get his fair share of groundouts. But when 11 of 32 runs allowed are unearned, the rest of the numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Hunter Strickland, on the other hand, has a reasonable 71 hits in 68 innings, has taken credit for all but 5 of his runs, and sits on a 3.16 ERA. Strickland has good ground ball numbers, and walks virtually no one, and could project as a fair middle-of-the-order guy. Of these three names, Caleb Clay has had the most trouble, but seems to have seen marked improvement since being moved to work as a long reliever/piggy-backed starter. In 4 starts this year, Clay has an ERA of 5, a WHIP of 1.39, and 7 Ks in 18 innings. As a reliever, his ERA shrinks to 2.45, and in 37 innings has recorded 21 strikeouts and walked only 9. Whether Clay's future is in the pen is up in the air, but this has to be a push in that direction.

As Price and Kelly moved out, replacements came in from extra spring training. And while they haven't pitched enough to really draw any conclusions yet, Stephen Fife and especially Nick Hagadone come in surrounded with hype. Fife produced very nicely in 39 innings of rookie ball last year, and has only improved in his first 26 in Greenville. 19 hits, 2 walks, 5 ER, and 23 strikeouts should be enough to tell that story. Nick Hagadone, on the other hand, is having an understandably more difficult time returning, as he essentially pitches for the first time since 2007, having undergone Tommy John surgery in 2008. The results so far have been wild, with few innings, lots of walks, and lots of runs. An encouraging sign that his arm is still as good as it ever was, though, is the fact that the strikeouts have returned as well—13 in 11 innings. It remains to be seen if Hagadone still has what the Sox invested a 1^st round draft pick for, but if he does, he should quickly rise back to prominence on the same levels as Buchholz, Bowden, and Kelly.

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Sorry, a day late, but it's been a crazy week around here.

First Half Minors Recap Part 2: Salem

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 14:43:49 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

This is the best picture I could find of Ryan Kalish in action. Yeah... (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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Continuing on from last week, a look at the Salem Red Sox' first half.

Part 1: Pawtucket and Portland

In Virginia, the Salem Red Sox have honestly been the most disappointing branch of the Sox system. They finished "just" 6.5 games back in their division, but when that division most resembles the 1994 AL West and 6.5 games back is a 32-37 record, that's saying basically nothing. On an individual level, there were quite a few interesting players, mostly positional, but nobody really in the upper-echelons of the Sox' farm system except for Ryan Kalish—and he wouldn't stick around for long.

Positional Players

Ryan Kalish started off the year on fire. In 21 games and 115 ABs, Kalish batted .304/.434/.504 with 4 home runs (more than he'd hit in all of last year, excepting fall ball). Hoping this was finally the emergence of some of the power their scouts had said he could have, the Sox bumped him up to AA, where he suffered from the usual post-promotion slump, batting .233/.287/.295. Signs do point in favor of his coming out of the slump, as he's been performing much better in June, but the power doesn't seem to've really followed him at all yet, as his slugging percentage lies somewhat pathetically beneath his OBP with only 5 extra-base hits including 1 homer. Still, Kalish has gone a long way to speeding up his path to the major leagues with the quick promotion to AA, and forms an impressive outfield group with Josh Reddick, and perhaps even Lars Anderson depending on how his work in LF goes.

The other major positional prospects in A+ to begin the year were Jason Place, Che-Hsuan Lin, Kristopher Negron, and Yamaico Navarro. Navarro has lost most of his season so far to injury, and with only 50 ABs, since returning (with half being rehab starts), it's not really worth it to try to analyze anything yet.

Che-Hsuan Lin started the year in an impressively bad slump, with an April batting line of .136/.209/.169. Generally speaking, Lin's slump seemed to be started by BABIP and prolonged by the usual pressing, as he ended up striking out 19 times to only 5 walks in the month. Since April, though, Lin has returned to his usual form, putting up an OBP-heavy OPS over .800 since, walking more than he has struck out, and even adding in 3 homers in June (a large number for a speedy Ellsbury type). So far, Lin has shown definite improvement over his last season, and has overcome the struggles of his slow start valiantly.

Last year was a breakout year for Luis Exposito, as the fanbase desperately looked for any hope from the various catching prospects scattered throughout the minors. But if last year was a breakout year, this year he has returned to Earth. Now, .286/.347/.447 isn't bad, but it's not quite what we were expecting as a group from the young backstop. Still, Expo's numbers suggest an improved plate discipline, and if there's a problem, it's that the ball isn't leaving the park as much—likely the result of his higher-level exposure NOT coming in cramped Lancaster, as it did last year. Still, if we accept that the power decline is a result of a change of Location, than it's possible to look at this year as just an improvement, as his OBP has risen a fair bit. Really, if anything has hurt Exposito, it's just that there's suddenly a lot more catching prospects with promise in the system between Mark Wagner, Tim Federowicz, and Ryan Lavarnway.

On the other side of things, 2 of the fastest-falling stocks in the Sox system are Jason Place and Kris Negron. In Jason Place's 4^th year in the Sox system, he still has not shown much, if any of the first round potential for which he was drafted. With a line of .255/.327/.393 and 74 strikeouts in 267 ABs, Place hasn't shown any of the power or discipline required for a corner outfielder. Kris Negron, meanwhile, is 23, and posting a .661 OPS in Salem. Negron has been known for sudden bursts in production that help make his other years and minor-league stays look tolerable, but really he's yet to be consistent at any level, and seems to flash between short bouts of excellence and slightly longer bouts of mediocrity. If Negron wants to stick around he's going to have to pick it up in a hurry. Place, at 21-years-old, still at least has a fair bit of time left to him to find his power and his discipline.

Pitchers

The only real name of note on the Salem pitching staff is Kyle Weiland, the Sox' 3^rd round pick last year, a 22-year-old right-hander out of Notre Dame who managed a 1.50 ERA in 60 IP in rookie ball last year. Given his more advanced age and impressive showing, Weiland skipped Greenville and headed straight to Advanced-A ball, which he may not have been totally ready for, giving up 16 ER in his first 12 innings in April, and then a rather improved, but still not good 17 runs in his 31 innings in May. But as unimpressive as those numbers are, the .33 ERA in June is made all the more impressive by them. The question is, why is he suddenly doing so much better? And the peripherals would tell us to be a little guarded against getting too optimistic. Over April and May, Weiland managed a 37:18 K:BB ratio. In June, he's walked 16 guys to only 20 strikeouts. His groundout number has gotten higher, which is certainly good, but given how few hits he's given up, the question has to be if he's getting lucky now, or if he was unlucky before?

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Alright, so here's the deal folks. As I wrote this one, I realized it, too, was getting long. Ridiculously long. I still had half the Greenville positional players and all their pitchers left to go--including one Casey Kelly--and at that point it'd be so long that I, personally, could not see myself showing up to the site, clicking on the story, and doing anything other than just clicking "back".

So, to fix this without stretching this out too far, I'm posting this--let's call it part 1 of part 2 to be as confusing as possible--today, with Part 2 of Part 2 coming out probably on Thursday, just to keep things well-spaced. That way, everything will progress at a normal pace and without too much clutter.

Reviewing the Red Sox's 2008 Draft: Casey Kelly is that good

Randy Booth — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 10:00:22 -0000

via www.sonsofsamhorn.net Casey Kelly is very, very good.

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With the 2009 MLB Draft quickly approaching on June 9, I decided to look back on what the Red Sox's 2008 draft looked like.

The MLB draft is always an interesting time because unlike NFL or NBA drafts, the average person doesn't know 95 percent of the players drafted. If you're really into it, you jump on the Internet and start Googling Joe Schmo's name as quickly as possible. You learn a tidbit here, you learn a tidbit there. But the real proof is in the pudding: the regular season.

Here's a look at the top 10 selections from the Red Sox' 2008 draft:

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
1	Kelly, Casey		SS/RHP	Sarasota HS (Fla.)

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A	1.12	48.1	32	9	39
A+	5.06	5.2	9	1	4

The Sox started the season with a plan for this talented player: 95 innings to start the season as a pitcher and then the rest of the season he'll play shortstop. The Red Sox are going to have a hard time yanking Kelly from the mound after the way he's started this season. If Kelly does well in the field, it's going to be an interesting decision about what to do with this all-around athlete. He is, no doubt though, going to be a impact player in just a few years.

Casey Kelly video

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
1s	Price, Bryan		RHP	Rice

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A	2.45	44.0	37	12	40
A+	12.00	6.1	8	7	10

If Kelly is a shortstop, Price could play the pitcher role down the line. Price found similar success to Kelly in his team in Greenville (A). His two starts in Salem has been rough, but there's no reason not to expect him to rebound. According to SoxProspects, Price doesn't have a lot of "mileage" on his arm -- that's a good thing. There's another guy who has succeeded when he entered the Sox system without a lot of mileage -- Clay Buchholz.

Bryan Price video

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
2	Gibson, Derrik		SS	Seaford HS (Del.)

2008 stats
TM	AB	BA	HR	SB/CS	OPS
RK	94	.309	0	14/0	.804
SS	35	.086	0	2/0	.318

Unfortunately for Gibson, he hasn't seen any time on the field this season (extended spring training). The book on Gibson looks good, though: fast and very good defensively. He seems the type that could float around the infield -- and perhaps even the outfield -- and be a game changer on the basepaths. The bat will be the thing to watch down the line, though.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
3	Fife, Stephen		RHP	Utah

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A	0.00	4.0	1	1	1

Fife just made his 2009 debut on May 30, but at least it was solid. Fife missed time due to weakness in his pitching shoulder. The injury could be of concern, but he's still an intriguing prospect to keep an eye on.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
3	Weiland, Kyle		RHP	Notre Dame

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A+	6.91	43.0	53	18	37

Weiland has certainly struggled in his time in Salem. His strikeouts are still pretty high, but so are his walks and the number of hits he's allowed. Salem seems to be a hitter's paradise though, so I wouldn't worry about him too much. He, like Fife and Price, have the college experience to help them get through problem areas.

Kyle Weiland video

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
4	Hissey, Peter		CF	Unionville HS (Penn.)

TM	AB	BA	HR	SB/CS	OPS
A	144	.222	0	9/2	.568

Hissey has struggled transitioning from the high school game to the professional game. He'll need to bring up the batting average/power numbers if he wants to keep moving up in the system.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
5	Westmoreland, Ryan	CF	Portsmouth HS (R.I.)

Has yet to play in Red Sox system

Well ... he's supposed to be talented. Westmoreland had shoulder surgery in November and is expected to be returning this month. SoxProspects compares Westmoreland to Grady Sizemore.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
6	Lavarnway, Ryan		C	Yale

TM	AB	BA	HR	SB/CS	OPS
A	135	.283	6	0/0	.881

Future Red Sox catcher of the future? You never know. Lavarnway is splitting time with Tim Federowicz and is performing almost as well. He's been all around solid, having both a decent average (.283) and showing pop (6 home runs) in the bat.

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
7	Federowicz, Tim		C	North Carolina

TM	AB	BA	HR	SB/CS	OPS
A	169	.314	7	1/0	.882

Future Red Sox catcher of the future? You never know. Federowicz has seen great success in his short time in the Sox system. Not only is he hitting for average in Greenville, but he's hitting for power. His 7 home runs and .882 OPS is evidence of that. The Red Sox would like him to take a few more walks in the future, though (.368 OBP).

RD	NAME			POS	SCHOOL
8	Lee, Mike		RHP	Oklahoma City U.

TM	ERA	IP	H	BB	SO
A	4.91	3.2	4	3	3

Lee has only pitched one this season and that was on May 29. He worked 3.2 innings of relief but didn't fare well. Obviously the jury is still out on Mr. Lee until he can put some more innings in.

The Catching Situation – Improving from Within

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 14:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Jim Cole - AP

7 months ago: Boston Red Sox pitcher John Smoltz, center, playing for the Double A Portland Sea Dogs, gets pulled by manager Arnie Beyeler, left, as catcher Mark Wagner looks on in the fourth inning during a baseball game against the Manchester Fisher Cats in Manchester, N.H., Tuesday, May 26, 2009. Smoltz, 42, is in line to make his Red Sox debut next month after recovering from shoulder surgery. (AP Photo/Jim Cole)

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During the last offseason, all Red Sox fans had the same top priority: finding someone to fill in for Jason Varitek, who had just come off a truly pathetic offensive season, putting up a career low 73 OPS+. Although the Red Sox no longer have anything to complain about when it comes to Varitek, whose impressive power numbers help to offset his low on base percentage, there's still the question of the future. At 37, Varitek is not likely to be a long term solution, and within as little as a year-and-a-half, the Sox are likely to need the replacement we all wanted last winter. While last year, the idea of finding a catcher within the organization seemed like a pipe dream, this year the Sox find themselves with a number of potential options at almost all levels of the minor leagues. These are the catchers who could, at some point in the future, be considered the Red Sox' "Catcher of the Future".

Mark Wagner – Wagner, a 24-year-old 9^th round pick from 2005, stumbled in his first year at AA Portland after putting up impressive numbers in 2006 and 2007. After re-establishing himself in the Arizona Fall League with a line of .288/.373/.542 over 59 at bats, Wagner has been on fire in Portland, hitting .302/.435/.535. Wagner has always displayed a typical Red Sox approach at the plate, taking counts deep and walking often. With 3 passed balls, 0 errors, and a remarkable 76% of baserunners thrown out, Wagner is also a great defensive catcher. The main concerns with Wagner are his ability to frame pitches, and whether or not he can continue to perform at this level, as he's had a tendency to decline as the season continues.

Luis Exposito – After a breakout 2008, 22-year-old Exposito is experiencing some regression, primarily in power numbers as the Advanced-A Red Sox team has moved out of hitter-friendly Clear Channel Stadium. Currently batting .281/.340/.445, Exposito is showing improved plate discipline, walking at nearly twice the rate he did last year. Of all the Sox' catching prospects, Exposito is the closest to replacing Varitek's presence in the clubhouse and behind the plate, as he's incredibly popular with pitching staffs and is an excellent defender behind the plate. Exposito does allow too many stolen bases, throwing out only about 28% of baserunners, but his strong arm means it's likely a coachable problem.

Ryan Lavarnway – Picked in the 6^th round last year, 21-year-old Lavarnway and Tim Federowicz are combining to produce admirable numbers from behind the plate in Greenville. Considered the more advanced offensive player, Lavarnway is putting up a line of .278/.350/.519. So far, his plate discipline hasn't been showing through in his stats, but the organization has not had any problems with his approach. Lavarnway is still raw behind the plate, having only become a catcher in 2007, and is only throwing out 23% of baserunners.

Tim Federowicz – 21-year-old Tim Federowicz was the Red Sox' 7^th round draft pick last year. The more defensive-oriented of the Greenville catching duo, Federowicz is still having an arguably better year than Lavarnway, posting a line of .306/.363/.484. Tim has good game-calling abilities and is popular with the pitching staff, and while he's only throwing out 25% of baserunners so far, scouts like both his arm and his mechanics and expect this to be a positive part of his game. Federowicz also possesses good speed on the basepaths, stealing 10 bases and being caught only 3 times in Lowell last year.

Oscar Perez – A 17-year-old international free agent signee last year, Perez is sure to make you wonder what you've been doing with your life. Expected to advance straight to the Gulf Coast League, bypassing the Dominican Summer League, Perez will come in over a year younger than almost all his teammates. While some scouts doubt Perez can be a major league catcher, the Red Sox scouts liked him enough that the organization was willing to give him a signing bonus of $750,000.

Carson Blair – Oscar Perez' 19-year-old teammate, Blair is a converted infielder with plenty of raw potential. Drafted in the 35^th round last year due to signability issues (he was previously committed to Tulane), Blair is a long-term project which could pay significant dividends, or nothing at all.