SB Nation - Angel Villalona

Giants prospect Angel Villalona charged with murder

Eli Greenspan — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 01:59:48 -0000

FOXSports.com is reporting that the top prospect in the San Francisco Giants organization Angel Villalona has been charged with murder in the Dominican Republic.

Pablo Peguero, the Giants' representative for Latin America, said Friday that 19-year-old Angel Villalona can't join the team in the United States because the U.S. Embassy in the Dominican Republic has revoked his visa.

Villalona, 19, offered to pay the family of the victim 140,000 dollars to drop the case against him. The family reportedly has accepted the money.

Villalona, who has pleaded not guilty, could face up to 20 years in prison if the case is heard and he is found guilty.

It'll be interesting to see if Villalona faces any sort of suspension from the Giants or MLB, or if he is released and given a second chance elsewhere.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:33:43 -0000

by Ed Andrieski - AP

Everyone's talking about John Lackey today. Should they be?

View full size photo »

Some things to read while launching a third party.

Thanks to Mark for filling in yesterday while I laid on the couch and drifted in and out of consciousness. My apologies for the late Mug today - I had hoped to be off my pain meds by now, but no such luck, so I'm having a hard time writing coherently. Also, as I was gathering news this morning, a delivery truck showed up with a whole room full of furniture from IKEA.

Before we go any further, you may want to just give up and find a new team or a new sport. Dave Begel of OnMilwaukee.com wants to make sure you know the Brewers are never going to compete (h/t BBTF). So abandon all hope, ye who remain here.

Meanwhile, for those of us who haven't jumped off a bridge, it's the time of year where we spend lots of time discussing players who may or may not even consider becoming a Brewer. Take John Lackey, for example.

Jorge Says No! wonders if the Brewers should be interested in signing him.
In-Between Hops has a visual representation of reasons they shouldn't.
When Buster Olney said the Brewers may have interest in Lackey, he also mentioned the Mariners as a candidate, prompting Lookout Landing to rip apart the logic involved in that statement.
Ken Rosenthal says the Angels are still interested in Lackey, too.
If/When Doug Melvin gets outbid for Lackey, Fire Doug Melvin has a statement for him to read. Melvin is already using similar language to complain about the draft.

There's also a flurry of discussion on catchers:

Just a few days after this vomit-inducer on Jason Kendall's likely return, new reports would suggest Kendall's return may not be so likely after all, and Jonathan Lucroy may be the leading candidate to take Kendall's place next season.
View From Bernie's Chalet is in favor of that move.
Project Prospect gave Lucroy a pretty nice review from the Arizona Fall League.
Big League Stew wonders why no one is searching for Jason Kendall's real age.

I'm planning on writing something more in-depth on Lucroy once my brain gets a little less fuzzy. In the meantime, here's a bunch of notes on Mike Cameron, too:

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wonders if Cameron might be the second-best position player on the free agent market this offseason.
Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times thinks he'll end up with the Yankees.
Hot Foot hopes he doesn't end up back with the Mets.

A fair number of people are treating it as a foregone conclusion that Craig Counsell will either return to the Brewers next season or retire, but that may not be the case. Adam McCalvy thinks Counsell's surprising 2009 season should net him several offers, and may drive up the price for Whitefish Boy.

MLB Daily Dish has predictions for free agents #11-20 in their rankings, and thinks Rich Harden (ranked #12) may end up with the Brewers. They also have Felipe Lopez (ranked #14) signing with the Cubs.

Speaking of oft-injured pitchers who could get a phone call from Doug Melvin, FanHuddle thinks the Brewers could sign Brad Penny.

And, of course, as the Brewers look to spend their free agent dollars this offseason, one massive mistake overshadows all other deals: Jorge Says No! has a look at the logic and failure of the Jeff Suppan deal.

Finally, there's some continued reaction to the J.J. Hardy-Carlos Gomez deal:

Aaron Gleeman has a scouting report on Gomez from his former manager, Ron Gardenhire.
Real GM Baseball gave the Twins an A- for the deal, and the Brewers a C+.

On Monday, I mentioned having written a scouting report on Hardy for Nick Nelson of Nick's Twins Blog. In return, I asked for his scouting report on Gomez. Here it is:

"When it became clear that the Twins were working to move Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason, fans geared up for a marquis package in return. After all, Santana was arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball; a two-time Cy Young Award winner with devastating stuff and command from the left side who still hadn't yet turned 29. What the Twins got was a package from the Mets that included three promising pitchers but was headlined by Carlos Gomez, a raw 22-year-old center fielder who general manager Bill Smith envisioned as a future anchor in the lineup.

Because of the circumstances surrounding his acquisition, Gomez became saddled with massive expectations amongst the Minnesota fan base. This might have been his undoing. By the time the Twins sent him to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy last week, a sizable portion of local fans was more than ready to see Gomez go. His lack of progress at the plate and his repeated mental lapses on the field -- one of which was on display during the ALDS when he cost the Twins a crucial run by overrunning second base in New York -- became too much for a lot of folks to tolerate.

As a person who greatly values defense and appreciates players who display enthusiasm and emotion on the field, I was always a big fan of Gomez and I'm sorry to see him go. There's no doubt that he was failing to make meaningful strides on the cognitive end, but his physical tools are undeniable and he was at least making slight adjustments at the plate this past season, with a decreased strikeout rate and increased walk rate. Granted, he was still poor in both those areas and his overall hitting numbers dropped regardless, but it's something to keep in mind, especially considering that he's still only 24 years old.

As far as defense goes, get ready for a treat. I know Mike Cameron did some nice things for the Brewers, but Gomez is better. I watched the great Torii Hunter in center field regularly for about a decade, and can confidently say that Gomez gets to balls that Hunter in his prime never would have dreamed of reaching. Even though he occasionally makes bad reads, Gomez can very quickly make up for a missed first step and has closing speed on line drives and fly balls like I've never seen before. He's an exquisite defensive center fielder and will make any fly ball heavy pitchers on the Brewers staff very happy.

That tremendous defensive proficiency means that Gomez doesn't have to progress all that much offensively in order to transform into a highly valuable player. While he has failed to post even a .300 OBP during his three major-league seasons thus far, Gomez posted a .339 OBP in the minors despite being young for every level and he may benefit from a return to the National League. His dreadful lack of discipline at the plate may prevent him from ever taking the next step and becoming an adequate offensive contributor, but I could certainly see him turning a corner and becoming a Franklin Gutierrez type player. Even if he doesn't, his defense makes him a worthwhile starter in center field and at worst he'll settle in as a quality fourth outfielder and pinch-running option.

For all the negatives that have surrounded Gomez's tenure in Minnesota, my lasting memory of him will not be the baserunning muff against the Yankees or one of the hundreds of outside breaking balls whiffed on for strike three. It will be the 12th inning of this season's Game 163 against the Tigers, when Alexi Casilla sneaked a grounder between second and first to drive in Gomez with the winning run. Gomez came sprinting home, arms outstretched like the wings of an airplane, and dove across home plate despite the fact that the play was nowhere near close. After recording the game-winning, playoff-clinching run, Gomez lept into the air with the excitement of a kid in little league. He may not be the brightest guy in the world, but Gomez plays the game with a lot of heart and he absolutely has his strengths.

Appreciate Gomez for what he is, and you'll love having him on your team. Just try to be patient with the mental mistakes and often clueless offensive approach."

Meanwhile, NL Gold Glove winners are expected to be announced today, and Stan Musial's Stance is projecting J.J. Hardy as the winner at shortstop. It seems unlikely, but I suppose it's possible.

Over 1000 innings and nearly 1000 appearances into his career, we're still trying to figure out how exactly Trevor Hoffman has managed to be so successful. Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at one of Hoffman's strengths: pinpoint control that allows him to keep the ball out of power zones to left-handed hitters.

Hitting during day games at Miller Park might get a little easier next season: The team has removed the ivy in the center field batters' eye and replaced it with glare-reducing black paint. They're also adding some black mesh around the scoreboard.

In the minors:

Jonathan Lucroy, Zach Braddock and (to a lesser extent) Lorenzo Cain are having pretty nice seasons in the AFL, and the Peoria Javelinas are 16-8, the best record in the AFL. They lead their division by five games with eight to play. For more on their recent performances, check out today's Fall/Winter League Update.
FanGraphs has the Brewers' minor league season in review, with notes on one Brewer minor league graduate and four more prospects.
Project Prospect ranked Caleb Gindl as the 12th best corner outfield prospect in all of baseball.
Plunk Everyone noted that Adam Heether and Brendan Katin are still among the Venezuelan Winter League leaders in HBP. Heether hasn't appeared in a game since November 1, and I'm still not sure why.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Claimed utilityman Mike McCoy off waivers from the Rockies.
Orioles: Claimed pitcher Armando Gabino off waivers from the Twins.
Rays: Exercised Carl Crawford's option for 2010, declined options on catcher Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse, and claimed pitcher Ramon Ramirez off waivers from the Reds.
Red Sox:Shortstop Nick Green and outfielder Joey Gathright both rejected outright assignments and will become free agents.
Reds: Outfielder Darnell McDonald rejected an outright assignment to the minors and will become a free agent.

If you're looking to sign Yorvit Torrealba to a deal this offseason (perhaps as a replacement for Jason Kendall), the baseline has been set: After the Rockies declined his $4 million option for next season, they reportedly offered him $4.5 million for two seasons, and he turned it down. I think the Brewers could easily beat that, and might welcome a 2 year$6-7 million deal for him. Brian McTaggart has a look at other available catchers.

Meanwhile, the Reds are reportedly looking to cut payroll into the $65-70 million range, which could be a challenge considering they owe $66 million to ten players for 2010. So, if you have a Red you're looking to acquire, you should get on the phone.

Looking for another buy-low pitching candidate? The Royals are reportedly monitoring the rehab of Runelvys Hernandez, who has pitched just four major league games since 2006.

We use WAR a lot to discuss the value of players, but are there cases where we're misusing it? Jeremy Greenhouse of The Hardball Times looks at misuses of the stat. We've definitely been guilty of some in the comments here.

I shuddered while reading this note: Garrett Broshuis, a teammate of Giants prospect and accused murderer Angel Villalona, has a look at the circumstances surrounding Villalona's release from prison, which included a roughly $50,000 payment to the victim's family and their decision to ask for charges to be dropped.

On a happier note, Brewerfan.net has an interview with former Brewer Junior Spivey, who remains a Brewer fan long after moving on from the organization.

A couple of cool notes from the SBN Network:

SB Nation celebrated its sixth birthday this week.
Sky Kalkman, formerly of Beyond the Box Score, represented SBN well by winning Dugout Central's prediction contest.

I don't have any Brewer related birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to UW-Stevens Point alum Scott May, who appeared in five major league games and turns 48 today.

Oh, and I have a new career goal: Leveraging BCB's Twitter (@BrewCrewBall) to get a CBS TV deal.

Drink up.

31 Largest Latin American Signing Bonuses of All Time

Patrick Clark — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:39:07 -0000

The Twins signed Dominican SS prospect Miguel Sano to a $3.15 million bonus last week; I'm not sure what's happening with Wagner Mateo, who's $3.1 million deal was recently voided by the Cardinals, but it seems like Sano will be the last member of the 2009 July 2 class to receive a seven-figure bonus. A current list of Latin American amateurs to sign million dollar deals follows after the jump.*

I'm posting it because I couldn't find anything this complete elsewhere, and in general, we need better information on Latin American baseball. That said, the data doesn't tell us much. The July 2 mega-bonus is a new development—I count only six seven-figure bonuses before 2005—and the process of scouting Latin America talent has evolved pretty rapidly.

It's worth noting that we probably shouldn't use these figures to compare Latin prospects to Rule 4 draftees, who are generally two to five years older at signing, and are not afforded the luxury of negotiating as free agents. If you think that Sano would have gotten $3.15 million if his rights were controlled by one team, you haven't read Dejan Kovacevic's excellent, revelatory account of the Sano signing.

Also note that I've excluded Cubans, who have generally played professionally in Cuba before signing with MLB clubs, and who are generally older than the July 2 prospects.

Michael Ynoa, 16, RHP, 2008, Athletics, D.R., $4,250,000
Miguel Sano, 16, SS, 2009, Twins, D.R., $3,150,000
Gary Sanchez, 16, C, 2009, Yankees, D.R., $3,000,000
Rafael Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Giants, D.R., $2,550,000
Yorman Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, VZA, $2,500,000
Wily Mo Peña, 17, OF, 1999, Yankees, D.R., $2,440,000
Joel Guzman, 16, SS, 2001, Dodgers, D.R., $2,255,000
Angel Villalona, 16, 3B, 2006, Giants, D.R., $2,100,00
Juan Duran, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, D.R., $2,000,000
Adys Portillo, 16, RHP, 2008, Padres, VZA, $2,000,000
Guillermo Pimental, 16, CF, 2009, Mariners, D.R., $2,000,000
Jose Vincio, 16, SS, 2009, Red Sox, D.R., $1,950,000
Miguel Cabrera, 16, IF, 1999, Marlins, VZA, $1,800,000
Jesus Montero, 16, C, 2006, Yankees, VZA, $1,650,000
Jackson Melian, 16, OF, 1996, Yankees, VZA, $1,600,000
Jurickson Profar, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, Curaçao, $1,550,000
Ricardo Aramboles, 16, RHP, 1998, Yankees, D.R., $1,520,000
Luis Sardinas, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, VZA, 1,500,000
Michael Almanzar, 16, SS, 2007, Red Sox, D.R., $1,500,000
Esmailyn Gonzalez, 16, SS, 2006, Nationals, D.R., $1,400,000
Fernando Martinez, 16, OF, 2005, Mets, D.R., $1,400,000
Willy Aybar, 16, IF, 2000, Dodgers, D.R., $1,400,000
Carlos Triunfel, 16, SS, 2006, Mariners, D.R., $1,300,000
Luis Domoromo, 16, OF, 2008, Padres, VZA, $1,250,000
Juan Urbina, 16, LHP, 2009, Mets, VZA, $1,250,000
Chesler Cuthbert, 16, 3B, 2009, Royals, Nicaragua, $1,200,000
Roberto De la Cruz, 16, 3B, 2008, Cardinals, D.R., $1,100,000
Julio Morban, 16, OF, 2008, Mariners, D.R., $1,100,000
Kelvin De Leon, 16, OF, 2007, Yankees, D.R., $1,100,000
Alvaro Aristy, 17, SS, 2008, Padres, D.R., $1,000,000
Jharmidy De Jesus, 17, SS, 2007, Mariners, D.R., $1,000,000

*If I'm missing any, or if you spot any inaccuracies, please let me know.

Tragic Week In Dominican Baseball

Patrick Clark — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 19:15:47 -0000

More photos » by Jorge Cruz - AP

Giants prospect Angel Villalona walks with his hands bound as he is escorted by police officers in La Romana, Dominican Republic.

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It’s been a bad week in Dominican baseball. First it broke that Dominican bonus baby Angel Villalona had turned himself into authorities as the main suspect in a shooting killing in La Romana, D.R., followed days later by reports that the St. Louis Cardinals had voided a $3.1 million contract with 2009 signee Wagner Mateo over a pre-existing medical condition. Meanwhile, Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times published a must-read piece on the dangers facing Dominican baseball. I'd planned to resume my examination of an international draft with a piece on Puerto Rico's inclusion in the Rule 4 draft, but decided instead to delve into recent events. Puerto Rico's not going anywhere, right?

For those who missed it, San Francisco Giants farmhand Angel Villalona surrendered to authorities on Sunday, Sept. 20 following a Saturday night shooting death in a La Romana nightclub. My Spanish isn’t perfect, but from what I can glean from the Dominican dailies, Mario Félix de Jesús Valette was allegedly shot dead after a dispute with Villalona’s entourage at a nightclub called D’Tony’s Superfría.* Villalona, a 19-year-old first baseman who signed a headline-getting bonus of $2.1 million in 2006, denies that he is responsible for the death.

* Is that a mural of Tony Montana on the front door?

Andrew Baggarly of the Mercury News has some reactions from Villalona’s teammates at San Jose, including big leaguers Buster Posey and Waldis Jaoquin (for more on whom, see R.J.’s piece at Fangraphs), who notes the ubiquity of handguns in the Dominican Republic. Having spent a couple months in the D.R. last spring, I can concur, and recall riding on the back of a friend’s motorcycle on a tour of the farming center of Constanza. After several minutes of wondering what was digging into my pelvis, I asked the gentleman to adjust his pistol.

***

While we don’t know the half of the Villalona story, it’s nonetheless hard not to think of Cesar Cedeño. Signed as a 16-year-old in 1967, in ‘72 the Astros 21-year-old centerfielder posted a wOBA of .421 and won what would be the first of five consecutive gold gloves.

Cedeño put up a wOBA of .417 in ’73, but that winter would be a difficult one for the budding superstar. According to published accounts, Cedeño and his girlfriend, Altagracia de la Cruz, were struggling over a loaded handgun in a Santo Domingo motel room when the gun went off, killing de la Cruz. A paraffin test ultimately determined that de la Cruz’ pulled the trigger and Cedeño was let off with a nominal fine, but it is often thought that the incident dogged the Hall of Very Gooder throughout his career.

"It never affected my playing," Cedeño told Peter Gammons for a 1977 Sports Illustrated piece, an assertion Rob Neyer seconds in his Big Book of Baseball Lineups:

"Cedeño actually played quite well from 1974 through ’77. Then, after missing most of ’78 with an injury and struggling in ’79, Cedeño bounced back with a fine 1980. At that point, he was still on a Hall of Fame path."

It was a broken ankle, says Neyer, sustained in Game 3 of the 1980 NLCS, that marked the turning point in Cedeño’s career.

***

According to Will Carroll, Wagner Mateo’s is another sort of tragedy. Signed by the Cardinals to the richest July 2 deal of the summer, the Redbirds have apparently voided the $3.1 million contract they had previously awarded the lefty center fielder after his medical examination revealed a degenerative eye condition.

Ben Badler has details and reactions at Baseball America. What sticks out for me is this quote:

"I’ve got doctors who say he does things better with his eye vision than normal players," [Edgar] Mercedes said. "What he makes up for with having 20/30 vision is above-normal depth perception. So it’s going to be a legal issue."

Mercedes, who represents Mateo, is the Dominican proprietor of the Born To Play Academy, the Haina, D.R.-based program that produced Michael Ynoa in 2008; he’s also the owner of 40 or so legal sports betting locations around the nation.

Maybe I’m reading too much into it, but it’s striking for me to see a Dominican adviser contemplating legal action against a club. Historically marginalized as so-call buscones, men filling the role of Mercedes have become increasingly sophisticated as the market has become more profitable, and I like to hope a more sophisticated adviser wins the Dominican prospect a fairer shake in his dealings with clubs (not to mention a fairer shake with his own adviser).

***

We need more stories like this one in the national media, which has generally underreported and misunderstood (frankly, it’s hard to understand) the world of Latin American baseball.

Baxter identifies three plagues—PEDs, age-fraud and bonus-skimming—that threaten to destroy the Dominican baseball industry.

There’s a lot of information in one place here—59 percent of the minor-leaguers busted for PEDs in the last year-and-a-half have been Dominican; since 2001, an average of 145 ID-fraud cases have come out of the D.R. yearly—and the whole the thing is worth a read.

That said, the tone may be a bit alarmist—talent usually plays, doesn’t it?—for instance, this:

"’Baseball in the Dominican Republic is in jeopardy,’ says Charles Farrell, a former Washington Post journalist and co-founder of the Dominican Republic Sports and Education Academy (DRSEA). ‘Just from the integrity issue. There's no simple solution.’"

Still, when Farrell talks, I listen; he’s the rare source for Latin American baseball knowledge that does not work for MLB, its clubs or develop prospects for profit.

In a recent newsletter (Volume II, Isuue 15), Farrell offered a novel approach to the age-fraud problem:

"Why not start a fingerprinting program for boys in the fifth grade (or earlier), and create a data base against which identities can be checked in six years, with 16 being the age when Dominican males can sign with Major League Baseball teams?"

Farrell says the idea was pitched to him by a baseball exec who noted that Venezuelans are fingerprinted when they apply for their national identification cards, usually at the age of 9 or 10.

Putting aside for the moment any moral-qualms about fingerprinting children, the immediate practical concern is, who pays?

I’m often surprised to hear baseball folk lay problems with identity-fraud at the foot of the Dominican government. Haven’t they been to the D.R.? Education is only mandatory to the fifth grade, the average salary is something like $9,000 and even in middle class sections of the capital city, electricity is spotty at best.

At the same time, baseball brings millions upon millions into the country, and in spite of the riches that MLB reaps from the D.R., I’m not sure that the league should be charged with tackling national infrastructural problems.

So in the style of the much-esteemed Tommy Bennett, a weekend discussion question: who pays? And with regards to PEDs, age-fraud and bonus-skimming, whose problems are these?

Prospect Prologue: Giants Foursome Comes Up Short

Jeremy Kempter — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 06:40:18 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

2 months ago: San Francisco Giants' Buster Posey gets his first major league hit against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Los Angeles, Saturday, Sept. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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In recent years, San Francisco’s clubhouse has been a retirement home, with each offseason providing general manager Brian Sabean another opportunity to add maturity and mediocrity.

But heading into the 2009 season, a silver lining appeared – and, no, it wasn’t Randy Winn’s hairline.

Help was on the way for Tim Lincicum and Matt Cain and Co. The organization’s farm system was named one of baseball’s 10 best, with a foursome as elite as any.

Left-handed hurler Madison Bumgarner, catcher Buster Posey, first baseman Angel Villalona and righty Tim Alderson were sure to form the nucleus of a contender for the next decade.

Funny thing about those prospect rankings – the path from potential to reality can be long and windy, and sometimes a dead end.

Now, at the end of the 2009 season, and we find the Giants with 50 percent of that foursome out of the picture, and another a disappointment.

First, the Giants, in a move reminiscent of the Kazmir-for-Victor Zambrano debacle, shipped Alderson at the trade deadline to the Pirates for, appropriately, the aging Freddy Sanchez.

Most recently, the 19-year-old phenom Villalona’s career was put on life support. Or maybe death row. He was jailed on murder charges Monday stemming from the fatal shooting of a man at a Dominican nightclub.

Perhaps Sabean has been smart to stay away from high-profile youngsters for the most part.

Bumgarner, 20, would seem to be progressing, becoming the second-youngest San Francisco Giant to start a game on Sept. 8, but he has lost a significant amount of zip on his fastball. While he was regularly hitting 95-97 mph with his heater last year, he’s now throwing 89-91. It might be because his arm slot has gone from about three-quarters to almost side-arm. Instead of appearing like an eventual ace, he looks like a situational reliever.

Bumgarner has had success in his two big league appearances (6.1 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K), but his K/9 has fallen to 7.0 in the minors this season from 10.4 last year.

While he is available in Yahoo leagues, and you may consider stashing him to see if he rediscovers the life on his heater, I find myself jumping off the MadBum bandwagon.

Admittedly, it’s a pretty steep decline in my assessment in one season. I had previously favored him over Tommy Hanson and Brett Anderson. We can only hope Bumgarner has simply run out of gas, or his mechanics will soon be corrected.

The bright light on the horizon for San Francisco’s farm system now beams from Posey, who had a tremendous season hitting .325, 18 HRs, 80 R, 80 RBI, 62 BB, 68 K and a .947 OPS. He is 1-for-3 in the Majors after a September call-up and is a must-grab in all keeper leagues for that day when Bengie Molina is put out to pasture for good.

Of course, that’s also assuming Sabean doesn’t go out and sign Pudge Rodriguez.

Giants prospect Angel Villalona update

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 06:24:11 -0000

More photos » by Jorge Cruz - AP

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He was becoming the Giants' most prized prospect, appearing in a Futures Game in 2008 at the age of 18. His strong build with above average power gives him tremendous upside, not to mention a good work ethic that keeps him in shape. Angel Villalona was rated the number 33 best overall prospect by Baseball America, the youngest prospect on the list. The 6-foot-3, 200 pound first baseman was causing some Giants fans to think that he could be the future face of the organization.

Villalona gave the Giants a reason not to stress about their lack of a legitimate first baseman, biding time with former prospect Travis Ishikawa and other short-term replacements. They anticipated Villalona reporting to Instructional League this week, participating in on-field exercises this Wednesday. However, Villalona became the prime suspect in the murder of a 25-year old man and could face up to 20 years in prison, putting his baseball career in serious jeporady.

Villalona will spend the next two months behind bars awaiting trial, and it is unlikely he will be allowed to train or do anything baseball related while he waits.

A sad story which seriously has changed the course of his life and the future of the Giants organization.

Angel Villalona Link Thread

Grant — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:17:41 -0000

It would seem a little odd to not have a main page thread on the Angel Villalona accusations, so this is kind of an open thread/link dump. I can't even formulate an opinion on this. It's probably a story that's so horrible it transcends any trival thoughts of baseball, signing bonuses, and minor league systems. I'm still holding out for the 1% chance that because we're hearing the story through an international game of telephone, the real story is far less sinister. It sure doesn't sound good though, and it makes my stomach turn.

Here's the standard account from the Mercury News, with some quotes from players.
Over at sfdugout.com, Brute has a recap of links and opinion pieces.
One of the more interesting links I've read from a human interest standpoint is at Garrett Broshius's blog: Life in the Minors: Villalona: teammate turned murder suspect

This might be the worst news I've ever heard as a Giants fan, and I can't imagine what the folks close to the Augusta and San Jose organizations are feeling.

NL West Report: Final standings taking shape

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 17:00:45 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

A charge from the last month from San Diego has put them in prime position to finish surprisingly in fourth place.

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There are two weeks left to play this season. Ironically, we already have a very strong idea how the final standings in the National League West will shake out, at least in terms of order. The space between teams in the division has stretched to the point nearly of no return.

In the last week, the Dodgers and Rockies strengthened their grasp on their respective positions, while San Diego created a little more distance from the fading Diamondbacks.

For a mathematical look, here's a handy standings table. The %+1 column indicates the probability the team will move up one slot in the standings. %-1 indicates the opposite. SAME represents the probability the team will stay in the same spot. For all practical purposes, the Giants cannot win the division, and they are the only team mathematically alive to move two places in the standings (and consequently, the Dodgers as well).

The percentages were calculated by analyzing SportsClubsStats' odds final standings probability distribution, which should be noted exhibits smaller variances than Baseball Prospectus. (For instance, Prospectus gives the Rockies twice the chance to win the division as SCS). However, given the extra detail SCS gives, that' what I used to calculate probabilities.

NL West Standings

	W-L	GB	%+1	%-1	Same
Los Angeles	90-60	-	-	0.8%	98.5%
Colorado	85-65	5	0.8%	1.1%	98.1%
San Francisco	80-69	9.5	1.1%	0%	98.9%
San Diego	68-82	22	0%	9.9%	90.1%
Arizona	65-85	25	9.9%	-	90.1%

(updated 9.20.2009 at 11:13 PM MDT)

No team has odds greater than 10% to move from their current position, and ignoring mathematics, San Diego would appear to have a better chance than even that 90% at retaining their 4th place position. The Padres have not had a losing week in the last month, while Arizona is stumbling through a 5-13 September.

There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of drama here folks. We are two weeks out, and the final standings are starting to look very clear. In fact, chances are about 86% that the order will come out on October 5 exactly as they do this morning, and more than half of the doubt comes from the inconsequential repositioning of the bottom two teams.

Find out about the NL West after the jump.

NL West Report

San Francisco (80-69, 3rd, L2, 9.0 GB in Div, 4.5 GB in WC)

**Last Week: 3-3.  2-1 vs Rockies. 1-2 @ Dodgers. The Giants were inches from being 1.5 games behind, but their failure to close the Rox series and beat Los Angeles completely nullified those first two games they won against the Rockies. Since August 28, San Francisco is 2-0 in series against Colorado, 1-4 against the rest of the NL.

Pace:  87-75 (No change).

Divisional Change: Lost 2.0 games in NL West (LAD), No change in WC (COL), though making up no ground cost them a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Diamondbacks, 4 game home series vs Cubs. While the Rockies spar with the hot Padres and strong Cards, San Francisco absolutely must make up ground this week with the lighter schedule, or they'll be out of the playoff chase by the next installment of NL West Report.

News:** Obviously, the biggest story was the detention of 19-year-old Angel Villalona in connection with a murder in the Dominican Republic Saturday night. For more information, check out articles at the San Francisco Chronicle or at MLB.com.

Angel Villalona

#31 / First Base / San Francisco Giants

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 13, 1990

Villalona could be facing 20 years in prison if convicted, which would obviously kill his career. The first baseman was ranked as the Giants' #3 prospect prior to the season behind Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey. Given that both Bumgarner and Posey have both surfaced in the minor leagues this season, Villalona represented the top prospect left in the minor leagues. He played in last year's Futures Game and was a Baseball America top-50 prospect league-wide. This would be a huge blow to an organization that traded away their #4 and #9 prospect as well as seeing their top arm struggle with injuries and velocity issues. Plus, I hear Buster Posey has just one hit all month.

A quote from the team's official statement:

"The Giants were disappointed to learn that there was an incident in the Dominican Republic last night in which an individual was killed and one of our Minor League prospects, Angel Villalona, may have been involved" - Chris Haft, MLB.com

I'm not sure "disappointed" is quite colorful enough of an adjective. Here is McCovey Chronicles' reaction. Some seem to hope it is reminiscent of Juan Uribe's feud in 2006. Unlikely. Villalona voluntarily turned himself in yesterday.

In other news, Brian Sabean appears to have gotten himself an extension.  According to Andrew Baggarly, finishing strong could seal the deal. Sabean had a poor record, and though he improved this season, trading from Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Garko proved predictably to be underwhelming moves.

Juan Uribe is having a surprising season in San Francisco, and partly for that, he is irrationally loved.

There were some rumblings of the Giants wanting to acquire Prince Fielder. San Francisco refuses to part with their thinning crop of prospects, so the most logical match is Matt Cain. Interesting move there.

After pitching very well recently, both Tim Lincecum and Brad Penny were shelled by Los Angeles over the weekend.

Transactions:   Outrighted RHP Osiris Matos to the minors.

Injuries: Activated LHP Randy Johnson from the 60-day DL. To make room for him on the 40-man roster, the club moved RHP Justin Miller to the 60-day DL.

San Francisco Giants Injuries

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player Injury Type Injury Date

Justin Miller elbow 09/13/2009

Noah Lowry ribs 03/27/2009

Kelvin Pichardo shoulder 06/28/2009

Emmanuel Burriss foot 09/01/2009

Henry Sosa shoulder 08/05/2009

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Justin Miller	elbow	09/13/2009
Noah Lowry	ribs	03/27/2009
Kelvin Pichardo	shoulder	06/28/2009
Emmanuel Burriss	foot	09/01/2009
Henry Sosa	shoulder	08/05/2009

Arizona (65-85, 5th, L3, 25 GB)

Last Week: 3-3. 2-1 @ Padres. 1-2 vs Rockies. The Diamondbacks did what no playoff contender recently could, defeating the Padres in a series. However, their successful week fell apart late, fitting given the two close games turned blowouts from Saturday and Sunday.

Pace: 70-92 (No change from last week)

Divisional Change: Lost 2.0 games on LAD.

This Week: 3 game home series vs Giants, 3 game home series vs Padres. Chase Field will close down for the season before October literally. Sunday's game against the Padres will be the last home game for the Snakes.

News: Arizona could save big money re: Mark Reynolds. It appears the third baseman will fall short of achieving "Super Two" status this year, which would prolong his arbitration eligibility one year, thereby saving the Diamondbacks over $3million. Reynolds has been such a constant force and has already set records (albeit in strikeouts) that it's easy to forget that he hasn't been in the league for very long.

Mark Reynolds

#27 / Third Base / Arizona Diamondbacks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 03, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark Reynolds	143	533	91	142	28	1	42	97	73	203	24	9	.266	.358	.559

Conor Jackson's season is over after he ended his comeback bid after three games. Jackson is prepping for 2010, hoping he shows enough promise to be retained by Arizona.

Steve Gilbert answers questions in his latest inbox. First question: What is fate of catcher Montero? As suspected, he is seen as the absolute starter going forward. Also, Gilbert touches on the likelihood of Brandon Webb's $8.5million option being picked up.

Nick Piecoro also touches on this, noting that the D-Backs won't decide on Webb soon. They will have until 5 days after the World Series concludes to decide, and they are hoping the progress he makes (or doesn't make) makes for an easier decision. It is possible they will offer him a one-year deal below the $8.5million option year.

Doug Davis is a very loyal pitcher. With free agency looming, Davis suggests he would be open to re-joining Arizona or Milwaukee.

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Conor Jackson played just three games before he had to shut it down, so he will not return this season. He'll join an instructional league tomorrow to scrape off a glut of rust. In the last 51 weeks, CoJack has less than 100 big league AB's.

Arizona Diamondbacks Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chris Snyder	lower-back	08/23/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Chad Qualls	knee	08/31/2009
Conor Jackson	pneumonia	05/12/2009
Brandon Webb	shoulder	04/07/2009

Los Angeles (90-60, 1st, W2)

Last Week: 5-1. 3-0 vs Pirates. 2-1 vs Giants. Los Angeles took a series from the Giants for consecutive weekends, helping to spread the distribution in the standings in the top three slots. Los Angeles has just three home games left.

Pace: 97-65. (No change)

Divisional Change: Gained 2 game lead on COL.

This Week: 3 game road series @ Nationals, 3 game road series @ Pirates. Los Angeles has arguably the easiest week on the road there is. They'll face the National League's worst two teams, who have the worst and 5th worst NL home record, respectively.

News: Ken Rosenthal mentioned in this Fox Sports video that the Dodgers' playoff rotation will start with lefties Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw, which should help against lefty-heavy Philadelphia or St. Louis, who has a strangely low OPS vs. LHP this year. The two would then be followed by Hiroki Kuroda and then either Vicente Padilla or Jon Garland.

You might notice a big name missing from that mix - supposed ace Chad Billingsley, who has had a terrible second half (3-6 with a 5.49 ERA after the All-Star break. Joe Torre says that faulty mechanics are at heart of Billingsley's woes, more specifically that he is rushing his delivery, a flaw that isn't surprising for a young frustrated hurler.

Sample sizes can make general managers look like idiots - or they can make them look like geniuses. The latter has occurred for Ned Colletti after Ronnie Belliard's hot has found even Orlando Hudson resting on the bench more. Belliard wasted no time in sending a gutpunch to San Francisco's playoff hopes Saturday when he clubbed a grand slam off Brad Penny in the first inning, the first of three Los Angeles cashed in on Penny.

Ronnie Belliard

#3 / Second Base / Los Angeles Dodgers

Height: 5-10

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 07, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ronnie Belliard	18	57	6	17	4	0	4	14	3	13	1	0	.298	.333	.579

In limited duty, Belliard has given the Dodgers a very strong 5.7 RAR (runs over replacement), production that by himself completely squashes both Giants' deadline acquisitions combined. Freddy Sanchez (1.8) and Ryan Garko (-4.3) equate to -2.5 RAR. MLB Rumors discusses how this affects Belliard's value going forward.

In spite of Ned Colletti's big free agent acquisitions (Manny Ramirez and Randy Wolf) along with quiet successes like Belliard, some don't believe Colletti should be retained when he becomes a free agent this offseason. There's legitimate claim there. Almost $0.2billion in contracts were given to Jason Schmidt, Juan Pierre, Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones, and Colletti failed to land a notable starting pitcher at the deadline. The Los Angeles blog Dodgers Rumors ponders: Is The Ned Colletti Era Coming To an End?

Transactions: None.

Injuries: Clayton Kershaw, who separated his right shoulder, will return to the Dodgers Wednesday....to the bullpen.

Los Angeles Dodgers Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Will Ohman	shoulder	05/28/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Xavier Paul	ankle	05/21/2009
Jason Schmidt	shoulder	08/06/2009
Eric Milton	lower-back	06/28/2009

San Diego (68-82, 5th, L2, 22.5 GB)

Last Week: 4-2. 2-1 @ Giants, 2-1 vs Rockies. The Padres haven't had a losing week since August 17-23, four weeks ago. In spite of their success, San Diego was assured of a losing season with their Friday loss at Pittsburgh.

Pace: 73-89 (+1).

Divisonal change: No change.

This Week: Last game of 4 game road series @ Pittsburgh tonight. 3 game road series @ Rockies. 3 game road series @ Diamondbacks. Sunday's game in Arizona represents the Padres final road game.

News: There isn't a whole lot of news going around the Padres' camp, but what there is predictably centers around the team's future.

For those that are still masochistic, check out more and more praise for rookie Everth Cabrera. Despite leaping organizations and making the jump from Single-A, Cabrera has posted a 104 OPS+ and .332 wOBA in MLB's most-pitcher friendly park. Not even Rox Girl could have predicted this.

Everth Cabrera

#1 / Short Stop / San Diego Padres

Height: 5-9

Weight: 170

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Nov 17, 1986

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Everth Cabrera	91	331	54	89	17	7	2	30	42	74	24	6	.269	.354	.381

Corey Brock went mad this week, writing multiple Cabrera stories. Here's one. And here's another .

With Cabrera as a cornerstone of the infieild, the Padres are optimistic about 2009 progress, as well they should be. They have been a legitimately strong club in the past month in spite of playing in a "shoddy division." Oh wait.

Via twitter, we learn that Kyle Blanks is done for the year, giving time to let his injured arch heal. The rookie posted a noteworthy 137 OPS+ in 172 PA's this year.

Transactions: Called up OF Luis Durango and RHP Ernesto Frieri.

Injuries: Activated RHP Mike Adams from the 15-day DL. Kevin Kouzmanoff, who has been out since Sept 8 with a strained calf, may return to action today with San Diego.

San Diego Padres Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Brian Giles	knee	06/19/2009
Kyle Blanks	foot	08/29/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mark Worrell	elbow	03/27/2009
Cha Seung Baek	forearm	03/30/2009
Shawn Hill	elbow	04/26/2009
Chris Young	shoulder	06/15/2009
Cliff Floyd	shoulder	06/18/2009

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 14:40:51 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Casey McGehee congratulates Prince Fielder after Fielder hit a home run against the Astros during the first inning Sunday.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while getting your vitamins and minerals.

Yovani Gallardo came into yesterday's game saying he was still feeling strong and he showed it on the mound, needing just 77 pitches to complete five innings and pick up his 13th victory in his final start of the season. Gallardo says he will accept the role as ace of the Brewers' staff next season, when he will still be just 24 years old.

Perhaps Trevor Hoffman will still be closing out Gallardo's wins in 2010. A few days after Hoffman said he'd like to remain a Brewer, Doug Melvin confirmed his interest as well. Perhaps the two sides will work something out soon.

Hoffman is still projected to be a Type A free agent in the most recent Elias Rankings, as is Felipe Lopez. Here's something I don't think we've discussed before: David Weathers projects to be a Type B free agent. It probably doesn't matter, though, as the Brewers would have to decline his option and offer him arbitration to receive any compensation for him. Weathers is making $3.9 million this season, and likely won't receive much less than that in arbitration.

Speaking of free agents, Matthew Pouliot of Circling the Bases is ranking the 111 free agents-to-be this offseason, and Jason Kendall checks in at #109. David Weathers and Craig Counsell are ranked 86 and 85, respectively.

It was a big weekend for Prince Fielder, who picked up his franchise record 127th RBI on Saturday night, and followed it up with his 40th home run and 100th walk on Sunday. The entire team was on the field for a ceremony honoring Fielder before yesterday's game, as was Astros manager and previous record holder Cecil Cooper.

Seth McClung has been activated from the DL but has yet to appear in a game. In the meantime, he's been passing the time on Twitter (FanShot). He's only been active for a few days, but he's already posted his thoughts on waiting to get into games, nicknames, Prince Fielder, Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey's contract incentives, the fans in Milwaukee, living with dyslexia, fantasy football, and this site. He's already much better with Twitter than Nick Barnett.

We might see McClung tonight, but we won't see Milton Bradley. The Cubs suspended Bradley for the remainder of the season for conduct detrimental to the team after he told a reporter "you understand why they haven’t won in 100 years here." Bruce Miles of the Daily Herald says the Cubs feel like a great weight has been lifted off their shoulders.

I looked at these numbers yesterday and can't decide if they're worth anything: maybe you can help me. Yovani Gallardo and Jeff Suppan are among the bottom ten in baseball in percentage of two-strike pitches fouled off. Any thoughts on how/why that happens?

In the minors:

The future of baseball in Huntsville remains in question, but Mark McCarter of the Huntsville Times asked some tough questions of Stars GM Buck Rogers in an attempt to shed some light on it. The interview gives a nice feel of the challenges facing the Stars and the small staff they have facing them. (h/t Rattler Radio)
Caleb Gindl may have vaulted into the upper echelon of Brewer prospects this season, but hopefully he learned something as well. Gindl missed Brevard County's brief playoff appearance with a broken hand, and it was recently revealed that the broken hand was sustained punching a door in frustration after grounding into a double play.

Since moving on with the Mariners, Bill Hall has hit just .221/.262/.379, and now he's starting to draw negative attention from people you don't want to draw it from: U.S.S. Mariner called out Hall for a lack of effort on a fly ball over the weekend.

From a past bad contract to a potential future one: Joel Pineiro is one of the free agent pitchers the Brewers may look into this offseason, but Jorge Says No! thinks he'll get a four year/$40 million deal, which is an awful lot to commit to a guy who's had one good season in his last five tries.

You probably didn't need a reason to be depressed on a Monday morning, but if you did, here's one: MLB Playoff Odds has released their most recent projections, and they give the Yankees and Red Sox a combined 51.2% chance of winning the World Series. Once the Brewers are eliminated and the playoffs begin, I'll be rooting for everyone else.

If that didn't depress you, perhaps your surprising lack of baseball knowledge will. It was pretty early this morning (and before caffeine) when I took this quiz, but I was still only able to name five of the 25 MLB win leaders by last initial. And, after seeing the results, I wouldn't have gotten several of them even if I'd had all day.

Zack Greinke isn't on that list but, as Joe Posnanski notes, he's on a better one: He's one of just nine pitchers in MLB history to pitch 200 innings with an ERA+ over 200 and 200 strikeouts. He's in incredibly elite company in that club.

The Reds have a nice group of young pitchers, and a manager with a reputation for ruining them. So how is it possible that Homer Bailey wants to pitch more? That one blew my mind.

Today we have another sad reminder that, no matter how excited you are about a prospect, and no matter how "can't miss" he is, something can always go wrong. Giants prospect Angel Villalona is a suspect in a murder in the Dominican Republic. Villalona is 19 years old and was given a $2.1 million signing bonus in 2007.

On this day in 1998, Jason Kendall stole his 26th base, setting a new National League record for catchers. The Pirates lost anyway, 8-1 to the Giants.

What do you give the man who could have had everything but smoked it all away? Today is Jeremy Jeffress' 22nd birthday. Also, happy birthday to Doug Davis, who seems like he should be much older than 34.

Oh, and maybe MS Word knows something the Royals don't.

Drink up.

Late Night Talks

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 04:53:54 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Browse more photos »

A few links for you guys to go to bed with:

Giants first base prospect Angel Villalona is the primary suspect in the murder of a 25-year old man in the Dominican Republic, the Associated Press is reporting. Villalona, 19, is one of the Giants' most touted prospects. If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison, a big blow to the Giants' farm system.
Diamondbacks third baseman Mark Reynolds is putting up great numbers this season, hitting .268 with 42 home runs in 142 games. He is hitting 29 points higher than last season, and has tied his career high in runs batted in. While he strikes out a ton (with 202 strike outs on the year), he has stolen 24 bases and is posting a respectable .360 on-base percentage. Reynolds, who is not eligible for arbitration until after 2010, has not been approached about an extension. The Diamondbacks may wait and see how his 2010 season goes before they dish out a long-term deal.
Indians manager Eric Wedge has been on the hot seat for most of the season, and it should get hotter as the season winds down. The Indians are 61-88, tied for the last in the AL Central. GM Mark Shapiro and Wedge have a good relationship, and it is hard for the blame to completely fall on Wedge after the team traded away Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez. Should the Indians fire Wedge or give him a shot to rebound in 2010?
John Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com is reporting that the Diamondbacks are looking to contend in 2010. Having a potential ace in Brandon Webb is key to that kind of run, but the Dbacks still aren't sure if they want to bring him back. Webb has only made one start this season, and hasn't shown significant progress in his rehab. They hold a 8.5 million dollar club option with a 2 million dollar buy out. I can't imagine the Diamondbacks would let him hit the open market.
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