SB Nation - Anthony Rizzo

Around the Mission: 11/24 Padres Links

jbox — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 18:15:26 -0000

7 months ago: San Diego Padres right fielder Brian Giles dives as he tries to make a catch on a single hit by Colorado Rockies' Aaron Cook during the sixth inning of a baseball game on Tuesday, May 5, 2009 in San Diego. Giles made the stop keeping the hit from extra bases. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Browse more photos »

PADRES: Giles is eager to prove he still has it
"With my knee feeling the way it is, I'm excited," Giles said by phone late last week. "I think I can offer a lot. I can't change those opinions. Physically, I've been as durable as anybody in the game."
Offseason economics put the Boston Red Sox in a curious position - ESPN Boston
it seems extremely unlikely that the Padres will even discuss Adrian Gonzalez (and the $10 million he makes over two years) unless the Red Sox empty their farm system of Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and Stolmy Pimentel and essentially become free-agent market mercenaries every winter after 2011.
insidethepadres: DePo
"He's a resource on both the baseball and the business side,"
Season-ticket holders seize opportunity | padres.com: News
"When they sent the renewal, I took out my Sharpie and wrote 'NO FAITH' in these huge block letters,"
The Sacrifice Bunt: The Sacrifice Cheat Sheet: Centerfield
the correct answer is to go with Tony Gwynn, Jr. for less than half of a million dollars
The Official Blog of Matt Antonelli
Hat tip to Sac Bunt
Anthony Gwynn: A $12M player? :: Friar Forecast
I am not convinced Gwynn is truly such a great fielder.

Over the Monster Top 20 Prospects Voting: #1

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:03:20 -0000

Lars Anderson, last year's consensus #1, has likely fallen. Who will take over in his place? via

View full size photo »

It's that time of year again, folks. This year, we're going to be compiling the top 20 prospects in the farm system according to you, the Over the Monster readers, and it will likely be somewhat less cut and dry this time around given the rather seismic nature of the minors this year. We're trying out a new Google Docs based system to make the voting more open. I've provided write ups of 15 of the Sox' best prospects, but voting is not limited to them by any means. Just type in a name and submit.

Lars Anderson

Age: 22 | Position: 1B | Level: AA

2008: .317/.408/.513 (A+) | .316/.436/.526 (AA)

2009: .233/.328/.345

Considered by most to be the Red Sox' top prospect at the beginning of the year, Lars Anderson's stock has dropped significantly following a dismal 2009 campaign. Still, Anderson remains a top name in the farm system. He has huge power potential which he had displayed in earlier years, which combined with great plate patience should be the recipe for a top offensive player.

Michael Bowden

Age: 23 | Position: SP | Level: AAA

2008: 2.33 ERA, 101:24 K:BB, .92 WHIP (AA) | 3.38 ERA, 29:5 K:BB, 1.13 WHIP (AAA)

2009: 3.13 ERA, 88:47 K:BB, 1.21 WHIP

If Lars was first last year, Michael Bowden was almost always second. Like Lars, Bowden has also had something of a discouraging year, but unlike Lars, Bowden's problems came at the major league level, where he was pounded, giving up 17 runs in 16 innings. Still, Bowden is young and impressed at AAA, where for much of the year he was outshining Clay Buchholz. The righty has a low-90s four-seamer, a high-80s two-seamer, a curve with a lot of movement, a very good circle change, and a recently added mid-80s slider which has yet to come along.

Felix Doubront

Age: 22 | Position: SP | Level: AA

2008: 3.67 ERA, 118:24 K:BB, 1.21 WHIP (A)

2009: 3.35 ERA, 101:52 K:BB, 1.41 WHIP

After a breakout 2008, Prince Felix has been rocketing through the Sox system at an impressive pace. Almost entirely skipping advanced-A and making a seemingly seamless transition into AA, Doubront is poised to start 2010 at AAA—something nobody could've predicted when he posted an 8.93 ERA in Greenville in 2007. Doubront is a 3-pitch pitcher with a fastball that sits in the high 80s, a good change, and a curveball. Though his fastball is nothing special, his unique delivery can fool batters.

Luis Exposito

Age: 22 | Position: C | Level: AA

2008: .283/.328/.508 (A) | .301/.331/.509 (A+)

2009: .274/.332/.427 (A+) | .337/.371/.489

Providing much needed hope for the Red Sox behind the plate, Exposito has displayed a great deal of talent both at and behind the plate. At the plate, Expo is an above average power threat for his position, with a good power swing. He makes a fair deal of contact, but doesn't have the speed to make too much use of it. Instead, Expo would likely be better off working on his discipline, which has netted him only 48 walks in over 800 plate appearances over the last two years. Behind the plate, Luis has great defensive catching skills, but needs to work a bit on the mechanics of his throw to translate arm strength into caught baserunners. Exposito is a clubhouse favorite, notably acting as combination best friend and interpreter to fellow prospect Jose Iglesias.

Reymond Fuentes

Age: 18 | Position: CF | Level: Rookie (GCL)

2009: .290/.391/.379

The new kid on the block, it's hard to mention Fuentes without drawing comparisons to Jacoby Ellsbury. Lots of speed, little pop, not much of an arm, with a tendency for the spectacular. Fuentes is currently lacking in discipline both on the basepaths, where he stole 9 bases in 14 attempts, and at the plate, where he managed only 7 walks in over 150 appearances. Still, both are areas that are likely to improve with professional experience, and Fuentes already has one key advantage over Jacoby: his ability to make good reads.

Derrik Gibson

Age: 19 | Position: SS | Level: Short Season

2008: .309/.411/.394 (Rookie) | .086/.233/.086 (Short Season)

2009: .290/.395/.380

A hidden gem of the Sox system, Derrik Gibson is an absolute on base machine. His plus speed nets him a high average along with a very good number of stolen bases (28 in 33 attempts last year), and his discipline keeps him on the basepaths. Gibson is a plus defender in the middle, and projects to remain at short or second throughout his career. The one obvious knock on Gibson is that he seriously lacks power, and may well not hit more than 2 or 3 home runs in an average year—he has yet to hit one in the minors.

Jose Iglesias

Age: 19 | Position: SS | Level: ? (A-AA)

The newer kid on the block, Jose Iglesias is already drawing attention in Arizona, where observers say there's a lot to the hype Iglesias had coming in as a top defender. Descriptions like "MLB ready" "plus" and even "Ozzie Smith like" have done nothing to lower expectations. The question with Iglesias remains if he will be able to perform offensively. While there is no doubt he is still raw, so far Jose has performed surprisingly well in a limited sample size against the elite Arizona Fall League competition, where he's currently batting .286/.344/.446 with two homers. While speed is not the reason why Iglesias is such a remarkable defender, he does bring a bit to the table, and is 3-for-3 in attempts so far.

Ryan Kalish

Age: 21 | Position: CF | Level: AA

2008: .281/.376/.356 (A) | .233/.305/.397 (A+)

2009: .304/.434/.504 (A+) | .271/.341/.440

One half of 2009's pair of breakout outfielders, Kalish started the year on fire as his power emerged for the first time. Kalish hit 5 homers in 115 at bats in Salem before being promoted to Portland, where he experienced a decent post-promotion slump. Kalish was not to be kept down, though, and ended the season making AA look as easy as A+, even if the season totals seem unremarkable. Kalish has great patience at the plate, consistently managing high OBPs, and is an above average fielder, showing a good arm, range, and glove. Kalish could pan out as either a center fielder or right fielder. One underrated aspect of Ryan's game is his speed, which has regularly netted him about 20 stolen bases a year with a high success rate.

Casey Kelly

Age: 20 | Position: SP/SS | Level: A+

2008: .173/.229/.255 (Rookie) | .344/.344/.563 (Short Season)

2009: .214/.290/.464 (Rookie) | .224/.305/.313 (A)

2009: 1.12 ERA, 39:9 K:BB, .85 WHIP (A) | 3.09 ERA, 35:7 K:BB, .87 WHIP

Perhaps the greatest source for angst in the Sox' farm system is Casey Kelly's position decision: shortstop, or pitcher? It would seem an obvious choice through 2 years, as Kelly is already pushing AA as a starter, but is clearly not ready to leave A-ball as a shortstop. Unfortunately, Kelly has stated his personal preference for shortstop a few times, and so the angst continues. As a pitcher Kelly mixes in a plus curveball and good changeup with his low-90s fastball. He's got great control over all his pitches and is not going to give up a lot of free passes or high meatballs as a result. As a shortstop, Kelly is a plus defender who has shown some potential for good power, but has yet to consistently get on base.

Yamaico Navarro

Age: 22 | Position: SS | Level: AA

2008: .280/.341/.412 (A) | .348/.393/.508 (A+)

2009: .319/.373/.543 (A+) | .185/.270/.304 (AA)

A solid defender with a potentially big bat, Navarro makes solid contact with regularity and has enough power to make a few of them leave the park. Not a hugely disciplined hitter, Navarro is going to have to continue to hit the ball or refine his approach if he wants to be productive at higher level, as his average speed will not bail him out. Navarro is not a plus defender, but will not make you uncomfortable if slotted in at second, short, or third.

Stolmy Pimentel

Age: 19 | Position: SP | Level: A

2008: 3.14 ERA, 61:17 K:BB, 1.08 WHIP (Short Season)

2009: 3.82 ERA, 103:29 K:BB, 1.39 WHIP

With a signing bonus of just $25,000, Stolmy Pimentel is looking like one of the Sox' best international bargains. The tall righty has a fastball that can reach the mid 90s with a potentially plus curve and change. Pimentel has the ability to generate swings and misses without offering up a lot of walks, which should serve him well as he moves up through the organization

Josh Reddick

Age: 22 | Position: CF | Level: AAA

2008: .340/.397/.491 (A) | .343/.375/.593 (A+) | .214/.290/.436 (AA)

2009: .277/.352/.520 (AA) | .127/.190/.183

The Sox' most MLB-ready position prospect, Reddick has cut through the Sox' farm system in a mere 3 years' time. Reddick is a versatile outfielder likely to end up in either center or right depending on who you ask. In center, Reddick would likely have around MLB average range—maybe less, given the recent rise of the position defensively speaking—but would be capable none-the-less. Reddick also has a cannon arm with great accuracy. At the plate, Reddick makes good contact and brings a good deal of power to the table with the potential for more as he matures. Josh has struggled with discipline in the past, but seems to be coming around some, improving to a BB% of around 10 last year.

Anthony Rizzo

Age: 20 | Position: 1B | Level: A+

2009: .298/.365/.494 (A) | .295/.371/.420 (A+)

After missing much of 2008 following a diagnosis of Hodgkin's Lymphoma, Rizzo has stormed back from his illness and established himself in the upper echelon of Sox prospects. Rizzo brings an advanced approach to the plate and combines it with a strong bat that, while currently being more of a doubles threat, has shown the potential to be a home run threat. Rizzo is a plus defender at first, with a great feel for the game and good range. Given his strong arm, it's not inconceivable that Rizzo could move to third down the line, though for now he projects much better as a first baseman.

Junichi Tazawa

Age: 23 | Position: SP | Level: AAA

2009: 2.57 ERA, 88:26 K:BB, 1.08 WHIP (AA)

Red Sox fans got to see a lot more of Tazawa than they expected to this year. After being predicted to start anywhere from high A to the MLB, Tazawa settled in at AA Portland and pitched very well. Shortly after being called up to AAA (where he pitched 2 games looking much like he had in Portland), Tazawa was rushed to the majors as injuries and mediocrity took their toll on the Sox' rotation. Things did not go well for him there, where he was pounded for 23 runs (21 earned) in 25.1 innings. So he's not ready for the MLB yet. Tazawa still looks every bit like he's got what it takes to be an MLB starter. His fastball sits around 90 MPH with some plus potential, but it's his wide assortment of off-speed pitches that makes Tazawa special. His curveball, slider, and forkball are all above-average pitches, the last 2 with plus potential. Unlike his Japanese compatriot Daisuke, Tazawa has a tendency to attack the zone and as a result does not walk a lot of guys. Future success in the majors will depend on if he can generate swings-and-misses on his secondary stuff.

Ryan Westmoreland

Age: 19 | Position: CF | Level: Short Season

2009: .296/.401/.484

The official Wunderkind of the Red Sox system, Westmoreland is an amazing all-around player. Offensively he brings an advanced approach to the plate resulting in a BB% of over 15, a power bat good for 7 home runs this year with potential for a good few more, and intelligence and speed (perhaps the fastest player in the entire system) on the basepaths that allowed him to steal 19 bases without being caught once. That speed is also a big part of what makes him a great defensive center fielder. So far Westmoreland has had some injury troubles—a torn Labrum last year, and a broken collarbone this year—but neither are the sort of injury that makes you think he's inherently fragile.

Bloody Sox Laundry - 8/16/09

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 07:00:14 -0000

Sorry, Ian. Sure hope Cabrera didn't do that intentionally. Can we avoid the retaliation stuff tomorrow?

Let's get the messy stuff out of the way - HUGE crash after Friday's amazing win.

NESN - Penny, Red Sox Knocked Around in 7-2 Loss to Texas

ProJo - Rangers 7, Red Sox 2

ProJo - To blame or not to blame, that is the question

There may even be a few people who fully believe none of it was the captain's fault. This season he's allowed 92 stolen bases and has thrown out only nine runners. While those are pretty disparaging numbers, the Sox' pitching staff needs to take responsibility, too.

Considering the two biggest failures to control the baserunners in a specific game BOTH came when Brad Penny was pitching, there has to be some sort of credit given to Tek. Hopefully this doesn't cost us many more wins, especially considering that there's not much the Sox can do to improve in this aspect this season.

We're still 0.5 games ahead of the Rangers, but that could change if Tazawa doesn't pitch well today. It would also be nice if there was minimal violence in today's series finale.

Some of the Wild Card contenders crept a little closer as well:

American League Wild Card Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Boston	66	50	.568	0	Lost 1
Texas	65	50	.565	0.5	Won 1
Tampa Bay	62	54	.534	4	Won 1
Seattle	60	56	.517	6	Lost 2
Chicago	60	57	.512	6.5	Won 2
Minnesota	56	60	.482	10	Lost 1
Toronto	55	60	.478	10.5	Lost 1
Oakland	51	65	.439	15	Lost 2
Cleveland	50	66	.431	16	Won 1
Baltimore	48	68	.413	18	Lost 1
Kansas City	45	71	.387	21	Lost 2

(updated 8.16.2009 at 12:24 AM EDT)

Some intriguing stuff after the jump, including prospect news, some pieces about the glut of roster moves this season, and thoughts about the futures of two important Sox.

Prospects soon to be playing

@SoxProspects - Rizzo's Back

You may stop holding your breath - Anthony Rizzo off the DL in Salem! #redsox

USG mentioned this in the comments of yesterday's Laundry, but it's kinda worth repeating. Hopefully Rizzo can bounce back from this and continue his ascent through the minors.

@SoxProspects - Webb Signs, Pivach Might

Theo, McLeod and co. keep at it - LHP Timmy Webb ([31st] rd) signed, and we're hearing RHP John Pivach (46th) might have too #RedSox

Not sure if these are just quick deals done while working on the higher picks or if the FO has moved on to focusing these kids.

@SoxProspects - No option burnt for Reddick if back on 9/1

Reddick optioned to Pawtucket, Brian Anderson up. Reddick can be called up on 9/1 and not burn an option this year. #redsox

The Chronicles of Reddick skipped a chapter, so he's going back to make sure he's developed properly for when the Sox decide he's ready to be a Major Leaguer for real - which, might be sooner than previously thought...

Always thinking of the future

Fire Brand of the American League - Are we better off letting Jason Bay walk?

But would the Red Sox be better off letting Jason Bay walk? Would they be better off taking the draft picks, finding a one-year stopgap. And hopefully letting Josh Reddick take over the position, at a very cheap price, and under club control for a while?

If Reddick is going to be startin next year, I'd prefer that he be in right field, shifting the aging JD Drew to left field. What's your preferred solution to the LF spot?

Fire Brand of the American League - Buchholz a groundball pitcher?

Currently his groundball rate, is a rate of 60 percent. Really, really high. That number probably won't be sustained. But a definite improved groundball rate most likely will.

Pitching to contact would help Clay see more batters and go deeper into games, but with his stuff, strikeouts are always going to be a big part of his game.

Extra Bases - What's next for Woodward, Matsuzaka

Not that anyone really cares about Woodward, but here's Dice-K's schedule for the next week or so:

Matsuzaka will throw another bullpen Monday, with an increased pitch count. On Thursday, he'll throw another bullpen with the intensity dialed down. His next appearance would be a few innings of a rehab start, likely in the Gulf Coast League.

Extra Bases - Gonzalez glad to be back

"I know these guys," Gonzalez said. "I don’t feel like a stranger, you know? I feel like I’m with family again."

Great. Now can you please be the over-athletic sibling who excels at every thing he does? I mean, we've already got the fat uncle who sits on the bench during family softball games, eating his turkey leg covered in gravy - yeah, this guy:

SoSH - The Penny Problem

That means one pitcher, either Brad Penny or Junichi Tazawa, will be removed from the rotation. Given Tazawa's inexperience and roster flexibility (he can be optioned at any time), it's easy to presume him the odd man out. But after watching Penny labor through yet another outing tonight, it might be time to seriously question his viability going forward.

I'd assume Penny would be claimed by SOMEONE if we placed him on waivers, but will Theo be willing to trust Taz, Bowden, Byrd, and Dice-K to fill the 5th spot once Wake comes back? Speaking of Wake...

Extra Bases - Wakefield's rehab start

Tim Wakefield has concluded his rehab start with Triple A Pawtucket at Gwinnett. He allowed two earned runs in 3 2/3 innings on three hits, a walk, and, strangely enough, a balk. Wakefield struck out three and threw 63 pitches.

Should be ready to go soon. Now, about the other member of the DL Loyalty Club:

Extra Bases - Drew out until Wednesday

Drew's sore groin will keep him out tonight and tomorrow. On Monday, the Sox have an offday. On Tuesday, the Sox are scheduled to face Toronto lefthander Ricky Romero, a game Francona likely would have sat Drew for, anyway. So Drew will get four days off to rest his groin.

And now, on a COMPLETELY unrelated note:

MLB Daily Dish - Investigation slows prospects negotiations

Not much to say here - we need to know who we're offering millions to, and teams should be more than willing to wait for the MLB to determine if an international prospect is telling the truth.

Maybe we should think about the future a little more

ProJo - There seems to be no end to the Red Sox’ roster shakeups

Boston has made seven roster moves in the last 11 days, and 10 in the last 16. A total of 46 different players have appeared in games for the Red Sox this season, which is one shy of last year’s total of 47. On the mound, 22 pitchers have been used, also one shy of last year’s mark, 23.

We're not alone in our proclivity for changing our roster - and other teams are paying for their mistakes just like we are:

MLB Daily Dish - Teams Paying $70M to Released Players This Season

Sometimes just thinking about the present is difficult

BtB - UZR's (and Most Other Defensive Metrics) Limitation in Year to Year Analysis
Since E-Coli busts out the UZR every once in a while, I thought you guys would like to understand more about the stat, and it's issues.

P.S. - Pitch F/X School

Yesterday I asked which of Frank Francisco's pitches were labeled suspiciously. If you couldn't tell just based off of a green dot in a bunch of yellow dots (or vice-versa, if you noticed that one too), here's a guide for movement graphs that shows where each type of pitch USUALLY can be found. I'd say either of the suspicious pitches could be labeled a splitter, based off this.

via www.sonsofsamhorn.net

You might want to commit that to memory, or at least bookmark it. Anyways, Pitch F/X school's going to take a break for the weekend. If you find anything cool on the web today, drop a link in the comments.

Stimulus Package: 5 Red Sox Prospects Whose Stocks Have Risen

Ben Buchanan — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:15:54 -0000

Cancer isn't about to stop Anthony Rizzo. via snapshots.mlblogs.com

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No, I am not proud of the title.

Alright, the trade deadline has passed, and the Sox are minus 2 prospects and a young graduate. But all is well in the farm system. Between Clay, Bard, Kelly, Bowden, Tazawa, and arguably Pimentel and Doubront, none of the arms the Sox shipped out were even top-5 pitchers in the system, and of course the positional depth remains untouched from Lars and Reddick, right on down to Westmoreland.

So, now that I am certain that none of these guys will be pulled out from underneath me, here's the follow-up to the "Market Crash" piece. These are the Sox farmhands who have best improved their stock over the season to date.

Just for clarity's sake, this does not include newly acquired guys playing their first season, improving on scouting. So that's why there's no Westmoreland or Kelly (first pitching season) sitting at the top.

5. Aaron Bates

Who he is: A 25-year-old 1^st baseman who, at this time last year, was on the fast track to nowhere. Other than his time in short-season Lowell and the ever-inflating Lancaster, Bates had never really put up big numbers. Certainly not enough for a first baseman, even one with a good glove. OPS' in the mid-high .700s. He had fair plate discipline, hit for an acceptable average, but never really found any of his advertised power. He was at his worst, in fact, in fall and winter 2008 leagues, his OPS hitting all-time lows of .670 and .714.

What's gone right: The power showed up. And with it came even better average and OBP. At .340/.405/.505, Bates emerged in AA after a change in swing mechanics before the season started. These improvements have earned him a spot in AAA, and even a short call up to the majors—an opportunity he took full advantage of, impressing in a very limited role.

Lasting concerns: He's not exactly dominated in AAA. His OPS sits well under .600, thanks largely in part to power more reminiscent of his 2008 numbers. He's still walking at a fair clip, and he's not really striking out any more. He's just not making as solid contact as he did in AA—a typical symptom of a post-promotion slump, however good his short stint in the MLB may have been. Still, for a 25-year-old in AA, this sort of breakout was quite necessary to even be considered in the future.

4. Mark Wagner

Who he is: A 25-year-old catcher who had managed to drop off the map like nothing else last year. After posting great offensive numbers (for a catcher) in his first 2 Just to ease some minds about one Lars Anderson, here are Mark Wagner's relevant lines of the last few years:

2006 (A): .301/.386/.456

2007 (A+): .318/.406/.533

2008 (AA): .219/.304/.363

2009 (AA): .301/.410/.477

One bad year and nobody had ever heard of him.

What's gone right: He returned to form. Not a whole lot more to it than that. Wagner had performed in the past, the aberration was that he DIDN'T perform last year. Call him the Red Sox minor league comeback player of the year, if you like. Given the dire catching situation at the start of the year, some folks started to take note of Wagner again (for the first time?) as he went on an early tear. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that he's throwing out about half of all base stealers for his minor league career.

Lasting concerns: Pawtucket has not been particularly kind through 61 at bats. .230/.273/.443 is not an impressive line. He also seems to lack home run pop, at least at this point, which should hurt him in any organizational battle involving Tim Federowicz or Ryan Lavarnway, who have both shown a great deal of power in the lower levels. The biggest question about Wagner has to be if he can make that jump to the majors. He's far from being a sure-thing as anything more than a backup backstop. But if he can bring his great plate discipline with him, and continue to put the bat on the ball, his lack of power shouldn't hold him back at what is, right now, an offensively bankrupt position.

3. Will Middlebrooks

Who he is: Wait, what? Some of you may remember this guy as the 5^th worst fallen stock in the Sox system about a week-and-a-half ago. Has a one-week hot streak really changed that much?

What's gone right: It's a really nice hot streak, and it's more like a 2-week, 3-week long one. Here's what I said last time about why Middlebrooks was not at all a lost cause:

Middlebrooks has managed a .850 [OPS] June and then regressed to a .702 [OPS] July. The power isn't really there, and he's still striking out plenty more than he's walking, but it's better than what he did to start the year and certainly better than '07.

Well, .702 became .949 (.337/.391/.558)—like I said, a REALLY nice hot streak. The power has shown up rather dramatically, with 5 homers in the month alone to give him a .221 ISO on the month. He's still striking out plenty, and not walking a ton, but he's 18-for-his-last-38 with no signs of slowing down (given his 3-5 game yesterday). It's also fairly telling to consider that his progression this year is fairly similar to his progression last year. If there is a trend for Middlebrooks, it's that if you give him time to adjust, he will pay dividends.

Lasting concerns: The K:BB is not good. Even in July, it's been 34:10. Middlebrooks has had some troubles in the field as well, but there was no prior indication that his fielding was anything other than good, so that should come around.

2. Yamaico Navarro

Who he is: A 21-year-old shortstop with an awesome name. Navarro has exploded onto the top-prospect scene since his 2008 time in Lancaster. Now, a sudden offensive improvement in Lancaster is often a warning flag for a sort of false boost—especially when it's followed by a pitiful showing in Fall baseball. But after a few rehab starts this year following an early injury, Navarro has been doing his best to show that he's not going away.

What's gone right: Navarro has not only replicated, but improved on his earlier results in the less-inflating Lewis-Gale Field. After a line of .348/.393/.508 in Lancaster, Navarro managed .319/.373/.543 in a rather short time in Salem this year. His K:BB ratio isn't bad at all, and is made largely irrelevant because Navarro simply puts the ball in play so often with his great ability to make contact. Navarro puts the ball in play in about 79% of all plate appearances since the start of 2008, and strikes out in less than 15% of his plate appearances. He's also shown a little pop, with 4 homers in 94 Salem at bats

Lasting Concerns: Is having a fairly typical slump since his promotion to AA. Not walking any, but he's striking out at about the same clip which means he should probably get his numbers up fairly quickly. If not this season, look for him to rebound early next season. If he doesn't, it could be a worrying sign that his sudden production was somewhat ephemeral, since guys like that tend to be exposed by AA. If there's any other concern, it's that he could end up a lot like Ellsbury at the plate—high average, low OBP, letting the pitcher off easy on short counts.

1. Anthony Rizzo

Who he is: A young first baseman whose career was threatened by Hodgkin's Lymphoma. Cancer-free for all of 8 months, Rizzo has done his damnedest to dispel all fears that it may have had some lasting effect. Hell, we've all heard this story before. We're Red Sox fans. If Jon Lester isn't enough proof that Sox players won't let cancer get in the way, here's Anthony Rizzo.

What's gone right: All Anthony Rizzo needed to do in order to be on any semblance of a track was to not look hopeless. If he was weaker, that was to be expected. If he couldn't necessarily catch up to fastballs, give him a year to get back in shape. Instead, Rizzo batted .298/.365/.494 in his first 245 cancer-free at bats, belting 9 homers and 21 doubles at the age of 19. It took him a few weeks to get acclimated to Advanced-A ball after his promotion to Salem, but he's adapted well there too. After batting .222/.323/.222 in 27 June at bats, Rizzo has basically gone back to doing what he did in Greenville, with a July line of .319/.369/.495. Rizzo is on a roll.

Lasting Concerns: Um...I suppose the plate discipline isn't fantastic. 83:38 K:BB on the year is not too bad, though, and he's still just shy of 20 with limited professional experience in A+ ball. I think that can slide. Other than that, it would be nice to see more power out of Rizzo home run wise, but this early both in his career and back from cancer, it's remarkable he's on pace for 15, so that's more of a thing to watch for going forward. There's just not a lot to dislike about Anthony Rizzo.

As it turns out, my list stayed the same before and after the deadline—a good thing by my estimation. Gotta love Theo and the $100 million player development machine.

First Half Minors Recap Part 2.5: Greenville

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:58:35 -0000

Part 1: Pawtucket and Portland

Part 2: Salem

=Greenville=

If Salem has been the most disappointing team, Greenville has been the most impressive. Halfway through the season, they have secured a postseason berth, their 39-29 record winning the division's first-half by a game. And more importantly, the team has advanced the prospects which got them to that point. Tim Federowicz, Anthony Rizzo, and David Mailman have all moved on to Salem after posting great numbers with the A-level team. Bryan Price has also managed to make his way up to Advanced-A ball. But perhaps the biggest story in the whole Sox system this year has been the fast-rising star of Casey Kelly, who pitched his first 48 innings with Greenville.

Positional Players

Tim Federowicz has been perhaps the most impressive positional player in the whole system. Coming in at 22-years-old, and now pushing at 23, FedEx as he has come to be known has had to move fast to stay in line with typical age progression. He has done just that, though, posting a line of .345/.393/.562 with 10 home runs in Greenville. And as small as the sample size is, his 1.143 OPS in 21 A+ at bats doesn't hurt, especially for a naturally defensively-sound Catcher.

Anthony Rizzo and David Mailman have not adapted quite so quickly to advanced A ball, but earned their promotions just the same. For Rizzo (.298/.365/.494), the emergence of a power game is the biggest development, especially so soon after missing 2008 following a diagnosis of Hodgkin's Lymphoma. Cancer free, Rizzo was able to hit 10 home runs in 245 at bats. For a guy who has always put up good on-base numbers, this is exactly what he needed to advance in the system. Mailman, on the other hand, had none of the track record of Rizzo after a tepid season in Greenville where he'd posted an OPS of .699, and so his emergence as a real prospect has been all the impressive. While .297/.357./467 is nothing to sneeze at, a more interesting development might be his offensive versatility. While he was always said to have above-average speed for a first baseman, Mailman's 10 steals (caught only twice) and 7 triples might suggest the speed is somewhat more impressive than initially reported. This is entirely conjecture, but given the good speed, good arm, and the fact that the Sox have tried him there before...could the outfield be in Mailman's future?

These are not the only players the team has lost, though, as Michael Almanzar was sent down to Lowell recently. Almanzar is the prototypical risk-reward player in the Red Sox' farm system. Signed as an IFA, Almanzar hadn't been playing real baseball for very long before he hit the GCL. Once there, though, Almanzar quickly showed he had enough for a promotion, posting a .886 OPS at SS and 3B. Ultimately, though, skipping low-A rookie ball may have been a poor decision, as Almanzar struggled greatly for the rest of the year in Greenville, and has continued to this year. The demotion didn't even help all that much, as Almanzar seems to be struggling with psychological issues, committing numerous careless errors. Still, it's far from the end of the world. Almanzar is still 5 months away from being 19, and these are sort of expected growing pains.

These promotions (and one demotion) have not entirely depleted the lineup, though. Still with the team are Pete Hissey, Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway, and Oscar Tejeda.

Of the 4, Oscar Tejeda is the least impressive thus far. A reportedly high-cieling toolsy prospect by at first lauded by many as a potential ~~savior from~~ successor to Julio Lugo, the young middle infielder seemed to fall off the face of the Earth, ending up at a .647 OPS in Greenville last year, striking out 76 times to only 20 walks. This year has not gone too much better for him, sitting at a .683 OPS with a 51:20 K:BB. But, for a player as young as he is, Tejeda's OBP improvement (up over 30 points) is certainly a good sign. Really, Tejeda is a similar player to Almanzar now, just without the benefit of playing time acting as a mitigating circumstance.

Looking at Pete Hissey's OPS would be somewhat misleading. At .610 on the year (this being essentially his first, unless you count 55 ABs in the GCL/Lowell), it is markedly unimpressive. However, aside from May, he has been remarkably good at getting on base for someone his age. In May, he had an 8:25 BB:K ratio. In April and June combined, he had a much more impressive 17:28 ratio, good for OBPs of .348 and .365 respectively. With a projectable frame and a little bit of improvement on making contact, Hissey's speed, discipline, and swing should get him to the majors in time as a good leadoff type.

Will Middlebrooks is all about progress. Again, an OPS of .648 is not pretty. In April and May, he essentially switched off a bad OBP for a worse SLG and vice-versa. How someone manages to record a .209 slugging is beyond me. But June was another story entirely. .274/.366/.484, while not exactly All-Star numbers, look Ruthian in comparison. While one would hope that Middlebrooks would remain hot, he is again mired in a slump going 2-for-20 over the last week. On the bright side, the power surge has remained, as the 2 hits were a double and a homerun.

If there is one knock on Ryan Lavarnway, it is that he is not Tim Federowicz. The 21-year-old catcher has posted a line of .271/.343/.510 in his first 50 games with Greenville, and would likely be playing in Salem were it not for his former teammate's production. Lavarnway has shown a good power stroke (28 of 52 hits for extra bases, 8 homers), and can really only be held back by organizational logjams. If Exposito is moved up, given the Sox' willingness to platoon catchers at C/DH, Lavarnway could be close on his tail.

Pitchers

As full of interesting prospects as the lineup is, it has had nothing on the rotation thus far. Headlined by Casey Kelly, Greenville has seen a steady stream of big-name prospects in the system stream onto the mound and, in the case of Casey Kelly and Bryan Price, onto Salem.

Casey Kelly does not need much explanation. A 1.12 ERA on a WHIP below 1, pinpoint control allowing 1.68 BB/9, and good enough stuff to rack up over 7 K/9 lead Kelly to a promotion after just 9 dominant starts. His time in Salem hasn't been as easy, but that's largely because of his last disastrous start of 5 IP, 7 ER. Given his previous performances at the level, and the fact that he wasn't expecting to pitch again till next year (plans foiled temporarily by the approaching Futures game in which he will take the mound), it's not too hard to see that there may have been mitigating circumstances. Even with those bad numbers thrown in, though, he still has an ERA of only 3.32 in the Carolina League with BB and K numbers similar to his time in Greenville. Kelly is going to be something special.

Bryan Price, on the other hand, has not adjusted as well. Performing always just short of Kelly in Greenville (2.45 ERA, WHIP just over 1, few more walks), Price took a dive after his promotion, with an ERA that currently sits at 8.31 and having doubled his walk rate from Greenville. A high K number (30 in 26 innings) and a good ground ball ratio both suggest that Price has been unlucky, and his last start—a 7 inning, 3 run effort—was a step in the right direction.

Of the starters that remain in Greenville from the beginning of the year, the big names are Stolmy Pimentel, Hunter Strickland, and Caleb Clay. Stolmy, one of the brightest rising stars in the Sox system, is a 19-year-old IFA from 2006. If there's one thing to worry about for Stolmy, it's the hits and the earned runs. Right now, his ERA sits at an impressive 2.77. This seems to clash, however, with his 82 hits in 68 innings. To his credit, he keeps the ball in the park and seems to get his fair share of groundouts. But when 11 of 32 runs allowed are unearned, the rest of the numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Hunter Strickland, on the other hand, has a reasonable 71 hits in 68 innings, has taken credit for all but 5 of his runs, and sits on a 3.16 ERA. Strickland has good ground ball numbers, and walks virtually no one, and could project as a fair middle-of-the-order guy. Of these three names, Caleb Clay has had the most trouble, but seems to have seen marked improvement since being moved to work as a long reliever/piggy-backed starter. In 4 starts this year, Clay has an ERA of 5, a WHIP of 1.39, and 7 Ks in 18 innings. As a reliever, his ERA shrinks to 2.45, and in 37 innings has recorded 21 strikeouts and walked only 9. Whether Clay's future is in the pen is up in the air, but this has to be a push in that direction.

As Price and Kelly moved out, replacements came in from extra spring training. And while they haven't pitched enough to really draw any conclusions yet, Stephen Fife and especially Nick Hagadone come in surrounded with hype. Fife produced very nicely in 39 innings of rookie ball last year, and has only improved in his first 26 in Greenville. 19 hits, 2 walks, 5 ER, and 23 strikeouts should be enough to tell that story. Nick Hagadone, on the other hand, is having an understandably more difficult time returning, as he essentially pitches for the first time since 2007, having undergone Tommy John surgery in 2008. The results so far have been wild, with few innings, lots of walks, and lots of runs. An encouraging sign that his arm is still as good as it ever was, though, is the fact that the strikeouts have returned as well—13 in 11 innings. It remains to be seen if Hagadone still has what the Sox invested a 1^st round draft pick for, but if he does, he should quickly rise back to prominence on the same levels as Buchholz, Bowden, and Kelly.

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Sorry, a day late, but it's been a crazy week around here.