SB Nation - Scott Eyre

The State of the Rockies: A Sane Free Agency Preview

Jabberwocky — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 05:18:36 -0000

Ladies and Gentlemen, the siren of the MLB free agency period once again beckons, luring unsuspecting baseball fans into wrecking their ships against the sharp jagged rocks--in this case dreams of big-ticket free agents for even the smallest markets, ill-conceived trade schemes, and long soliloquies about why the owner/GM/beat writer is a complete and utter moron. This column, my dear friends, is the beeswax to put in your ears to defend you from those beautiful seductresses (and their horrible ideas) as you look forward to the 2010 Rockies.

Yes, that's right. A few minutes ago, the floodgates officially opened for major league free agency. In addition, all MLB teams are required to set their 40 man rosters in advance of the December 8th Rule 5 draft. I've written about all three subjects in Purple Row Academy before, so for those of you who are curious about how those processes are carried out, check out these primers:

Free Agency (the dates listed therein are from last offseason)

40 Man Roster

Rule 5 Draft

All three of these articles have supporting links that clarify the issues even further.

In this installment of the State of the Rockies, I opine about the puzzling Garrett Atkins decision, revisit Rafael Betancourt's situation, examine the Rockies' current 40 man roster status, and look some free agent targets that I'd like the Rockies to consider (plus, how they would fit into the budget that I've outlined over the last two weeks).

Join me after the jump if you value your sanity.

Why didn't the Rockies non-tender Garrett Atkins before the 40 man roster had to be set?

Good question. There's one main reason for doing this, and that's to extend the window of time that the Rockies have to trade the underperforming third baseman for another few weeks--until the December 12th deadline for tendering contracts for players under team control. Unfortunately for Colorado and Dan O'Dowd, the chances of such a deal being consummated reside squarely between slim and none.

It's not that Atkins isn't drawing interest from other teams. Just three years ago he was a player worth 6.4 WAR, he can play both corner infield positions somewhat passably, and he is theoretically in his prime (he'll turn 30 on the date that the Rockies will probably non-tender him). The problem is, Atkins' value as a trade asset to the Rockies is basically nil. Because by rule Atkins' salary next year unless he is a free agent can be no less than 80% of last year's total ($7.05 million), teams that would trade for Garrett would at a minimum be paying $5.64 million for a player that was flat out awful in 2009. The point is that I can't fathom another team trading the Rockies anything (and I mean anything) for him when he'd come much more cheaply once he's been non-tendered.

However, since the Rockies have seven slots open on the 40 man roster as of today (more on that later), it appears that Colorado has enough room to protect the prospects they want from the Rule 5 draft without removing Atkins from it. I'm hoping against hope that O'Dowd can finagle a deal for Atkins, but let's just say that I'm not holding my breath.

What's up with Rafael Betancourt?

From the poll results of last week's column, it appears that the vast majority of you want Betancourt back next year, preferably on a multi-year deal with less of a hit on a per-annum basis. Since the Rockies did decline his option, which was the right call in my opinion, they face a further decision with the soon to be 35 year old reliever--whether to offer him salary arbitration or not by the December 8th deadline.

It is my opinion that if he were offered arbitration, Betancourt would be crazy not to accept it. His status as a Type A free agent severely pollutes his value on the free agent market, chasing away a number of potentially interested teams that don't want to give the Rockies their first round pick for a solid set-up man. Considering Betancourt's age and the relatively high volatility of relief pitching performance, the risk for another team is particularly acute. I believe that as a result Betancourt would be very fortunate indeed to receive an offer that approaches what he would get in arbitration.

And what would that be? Let's look at some precedent--a tale of two relievers, if you will.

Last year two veteran relief pitchers (Darren Oliver and David Weathers) accepted arbitration from their clubs. Oliver was a Type A free agent while Weathers was a former closer who had once been perceived as being productive. Oliver was coming off of a 1.0 WAR season in which he was very effective, while Weathers had produced 0.2 WAR.

Oliver, who was going to be 38 in 2009, got his salary increased through arbitration from $2 million to $3.665 million, while Weathers, who was going to be 39, went up from $3.3 to $3.5 million. Those are 83.3% and 6% raises respectively, as would befit their recent performance levels. In 2009, Oliver continued to defy science and produced an even better, 1.5 WAR year at age 38, while Weathers was DFA'd and ended up with -0.8 WAR--while being paid $3.5 million. That's the risk inherent with offering arbitration--some decisions pan out and some fail.

Given that Betancourt is likely better than both of the pitchers above and a little younger (35 compared to 38-39), he’ll get a slightly higher raise, closer to Oliver's 83% raise and maybe larger. In 2009 Betacourt was making $3.5 million—which means that I’m estimating an increase of 2.9 million (or 83%) to $6.4 million—in other words, more than the option the Rockies just declined should he accept arbitration. Who knows though…arbitrators work in mysterious ways.

The draft picks should Betancourt not accept arbitration and sign with another team would be worth about $5 million, so the Rockies are gambling that they can either re-sign Betancourt for a lower price tag or that another team would be willing to offer him a crazy contract despite his free agency status. If it works, O'Dowd is a genius--but I just have serious doubts that everything will work out. Bottom line though, the worst case scenario is that the Rockies pay Betancourt well over $6 million next year--which is pretty palatable as far as worst case scenarios go.

Who is worth protecting from the Rule 5 draft?

As I mentioned above, the Rockies have only 33 spots filled on their 40 man roster, meaning that they technically have room to protect up to seven prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Of course, that's not really realistic. As I've outlined previously, the Rockies have holes on the major league roster that need to be filled--namely replacements for their ten free agents and Atkins--so in effect they can protect only a few players.

Hat tip to WolfMarauder on this, but going strictly by the Purple Row PuRP list, the Rockies have four prospects that would need to be protected from the draft: Michael McKenry (C), Cole Garner (OF), Chaz Roe (RHP), and Edgmer Escalona (RHP)--plus Alberto Alberquerque (RHP), who the Rockies received in exchange for Jeff Baker.

Now admittedly the minor league system isn't my area of expertise, but if I were to hazard a guess, the Rockies will likely protect McKenry, Garner, and Roe--leaving both Escalona and Alberquerque (among other lesser prospects) eligible for the draft. They simply won't be able to protect more than that--not if the Rockies plan to field a complete roster come Opening Day 2010. We'll see soon enough.

Who should the Rockies be looking at in free agency?

Given that, by my calculations, the Rockies currently have 23 players under contract for next year (22 if you allow that Buchholz will start on the DL), they will need to fill those holes. This might be through re-signing free agents such as Yorvit Torrealba at back-up catcher, Rafael Betancourt as a set-up man, and Joe Beimel as a lefty out of the pen. Or they could go by the cheap youth method, promoting McKenry to the big leagues come Opening Day while using Deduno and Chacin in the bullpen. Or they could make a foray into the free agent market. Finally, the Rockies could explore the trade market both as a buyer and a seller. To that end, Baseball Prospectus has a few tips for those interested in making up interesting trade rumors.

My prediction is that the Rockies will explore a little of each, signing at least one of their free agents (my guess is that they do get Betancourt back one way or another) and maybe two (Torrealba seems somewhat likely as well), while should Torrealba fall through McKenry seems to be the most cost-effective candidate. I think that the Rockies are likely to trade one of their outfielders (and I've recommended Hawpe many many times), maybe two--and O'Dowd could perform a miracle and trade Atkins. Either way, I think the Rockies will be looking for one of two things in free agency: a back-up corner infielder/veteran and a relief pitcher, preferably a lefty.

Given this and the fact that the Rockies' budget is undeniably tight, here are a few players that I would recommend at least kicking the tires on that are within the Rockies price range. By no means is this list exhaustive, but these players would fill a need for Colorado.

Free Agency Targets

Pedro Feliz: Yes, he's a pretty bad hitter and yes, he's old, but Feliz fields his position very well (he could likely play first base at a high level too) and has shown at least some power--two important characteristics for a NL bench player. He's sufficiently veteranny (he'll be 34 years old), he's right-handed, and would likely cost around $3-5 million to sign. Ultimately, he's injury insurance that gives the Rockies a lot of flexibility in later innings. Obviously, Feliz will be looking for a starting situation before he would choose to come to the Rockies, which is a big stumbling block.

Jamey Carroll: He has already been awesome for the Rockies before (3.1 WAR in 2006), plus he can play almost anywhere on the diamond (and do it well). The fans and players love him already, and he's willing to come off the bench. The problem is that the competition for the utilityman will be fierce this offseason, and he might be snapped up for close to $3 million.

Felipe Lopez: He represents an upgrade at second base, plus he has defensive versatility. His excellent year last year could price him out of Colorado's range, though in my opinion he is being severely undervalued by many. This is a pipe dream that RMN and I share.

Juan Uribe: He's another former Rockie, one who has excelled in this type of role already on the Giants. Unfortunately for Colorado, he may have performed too well for the Giants, who really want him back. My prediction is that San Francisco gets their man.

Joe Crede: He's great with the leather and serviceable with the bat. The problem is that he's looking for a starting job and he's had three back surgeries already. Give him an incentive laden salary with a low base and he's your man--but Crede's probably not coming to Colorado in a part-time role (especially since he's a Boras client).

Eric Hinske: The last three years, the teams that Hinske has been on have made the World Series, winning it twice. How much more of a veteran winner can you be? Plus he's good with the bat and is versatile (though not particularly competent) defensively.

Jose Contreras: More than any other Rockies free agents, I want Contreras back next year as rotation insurance and as a swing man with excellent stuff in the bullpen--heck, I'd like to see the Rockies pay up to $3 million for his services. Whether that would be enough is another matter.

John Smoltz: If he'd deign to sign with the Rockies, Colorado would be glad to have his power arm in the bullpen or even in the fifth starter's role.

Rodrigo Lopez: He has found success in Colorado before and would serve as rotation depth.

Mark Hendrickson and Scott Eyre (Type B): Serviceable veteran left-handed relievers that would cost around $2-3 million each.

To that effect, there are many relievers or failed starters that O'Dowd could pick up cheaply off the scrap heap that would perform at a decent level for this team--I'm not really as worried about the bullpen.

The bottom line is that I think the Rockies should sign Feliz or a similar player to replace Atkins while inking a veteran starter/reliever for the bullpen. If Colorado does move Hawpe, they'll likely receive a bullpen arm in return that could fill the void as well. Either way, I'm expecting free agency to cost the Rockies around $8-10 million, bringing their ODP to around $87 million.

Player Origins of the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies

John Sickels — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:03:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Philadelphia Phillies infielder Jimmy Rollins, drafted in the second round in 1996.(AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Browse more photos »

Philadelphia Phillies: Player Origins

Here are the player development origins of the 2009 National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

PITCHERS:

Antonio Bastardo, LHP: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2005.

Joe Blanton, RHP: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the first round in 2002, from the University of Kentucky. Acquired by the Phillies in a trade with Oakland in July 2008.

Chad Durbin, RHP: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the third round in 1996, from high school in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in December 2007.

Scott Eyre, RHP: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the ninth round in 1991, from the Junior College of Southern Idaho. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Cubs in August 2008.

Cole Hamels, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2002, out of high school in San Diego, California.

J.A. Happ, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the third round in 2004, from Northwestern University.

Cliff Lee, LHP: Drafted by the Montreal Expos in the fourth round in 2000, from the University of Arkansas. Acquired in a trade with the Indians this summer.

Brad Lidge, RHP: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the first round in 1998, from the University of Notre Dame. Acquired in a trade with the Astros in November 2007.

Ryan Madson, RHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the ninth round in 1998, out of high school in Moreno Valley, California.

Pedro Martinez, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1988. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from South Korea in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent.

POSITION PLAYERS

Paul Bako, C: Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the fifth round in 1993, out of the University of Southwestern Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Eric Bruntlett, INF: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the ninth round in 2000, out of Stanford University. The Phillies got him in a trade with Houston in 2007.

Miguel Cairo, INF: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 1990. Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 2009.

Greg Dobbs, INF: Signed by the Seattle Mariners as an undrafted free agent from the University of Oklahoma in 2001. The Phillies claimed him on waivers in 2007.

Pedro Feliz, 3B: Signed by the San Francisco Giants as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in 2008.

Ben Francisco, OF: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the fifth round in 2002 from UCLA. The Phillies acquired him in a trade this summer with the Indians.

Ryan Howard, 1B: Drafted by the Phillies in the fifth round in 2001, from Southwest Missouri State University (now known as Missouri State University).

Raul Ibanez, OF: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 36^th round in 1992, from Miami-Dade Community College-South. The Phillies signed him as a free agent last winter.

Jimmy Rollins, SS: Drafted by the Phillies in the second round in 1996, out of high school in Alameda, California.

Carlos Ruiz, C: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 1998, out of Panama.

Matt Stairs, OF: Signed by the Montreal Expos as an undrafted free agent in 1989, out of high school in Canada. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Blue Jays in 2008.

Chase Utley, 2B: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2000, out of UCLA.

Shane Victorino, OF: Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth round in 1999, out of high school in Wailuku, Hawaii.. Selected in the 2005 Rule 5 draft.

Jayson Werth, OF: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the first round in 1997, out of high school in Chatham, Illinois. Signed as a free agent by the Phillies in 2006.

ACQUISTIONS:

Via Trades/Waivers: Blanton, Eyre, Lee, Lidge, Bruntlett,. Dobbs, Francisco, Stairs.

Phillies Farm System Products: Bastardo, Hamels, Happ, Madson, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Utley.

Free Agents: Durbin, Martinez, Park, Bako, Cairo, Feliz, Ibanez, Werth.

Rule 5: Victorino.

ORIGINS

Drafted from North American high schools: Durbin (3^rd), Hamels (1^st), Madson (9^th), Rollins (2^nd), Victorino (9^th), Werth (1^st).

Drafted from junior colleges: Eyre (9^th), Ibanez (36^th)

Drafted from four-year colleges: Blanton (1^st); Happ (3^rd), Lee (4^th), Lidge (1^st), Bako (5^th), Bruntlett (9^th), Francisco (5^th), Howard (5^th), Utley (1^st)

Undrafted free agents from North America: Dobbs, Stairs

Latin Free Agents: Bastardo, Martinez, Cairo, Feliz, Ruiz

Asian Free Agents: Park

As you can see, the Phillies built their team through a variety of sources. Once the American League winner is determined, we'll analyze their roster and compare the two.

NLCS Preview: Phillies vs. Dodgers, Game 1, Thursday 10/14, 7:07 CT

Al — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:00:18 -0000

by David J. Phillip - AP

View full size photo »

Last year's Cubs would have loved this series.

Between the Phillies and Dodgers, five lefthanded starters (Cole Hamels, J.A. Happ, Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf) are likely to start the majority of games in the NLCS, which begins tonight in Los Angeles -- and that's not to mention the solid lefthanded relievers both teams have (George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, and ex-Cub Scott Eyre -- who now has a blog; who knew?).

Meanwhile, the two teams involved are heavily laden with lefthanded power hitters (Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, James Loney and Andre Ethier). Will anyone score runs in this series?

Seriously, as we learned this season, handedness among hitters is overrated. Both teams have good hitters -- and the Dodgers have plenty of good right-handed hitters, too -- and it really shouldn't matter what side of the plate you hit from, as long as you can hit. Both teams scored a ton of runs during the regular season: the Phillies led the league with 820 runs scored (still fewer than the 855 the Cubs scored in 2008) and the Dodgers were fourth with 780. The Dodgers had better all-around pitching, leading the league in ERA (3.41) and fewest runs allowed (611). The Phillies' overall pitching was more pedestrian; their 4.16 ERA was a distant sixth behind the Cubs' 3.84.

However, as we have learned to our bitter disappointment the last two years, it doesn't matter what you do in the regular season; the playoffs are a "what have you done for me lately" dance. One of the keys for the Phillies in their series with the Rockies is that they got 2008-level performance out of Brad Lidge, who had a horrific regular season but nailed down two games in the division series despite a bit of shaky pitching -- that had to do wonders for his confidence. The acquisition of Cliff Lee made the Phillies' rotation as good as the Dodgers', and Lee posted a 1.10 ERA in two NLDS starts. LA also has an outstanding closer in Jonathan Broxton, and the acquisition of Sherrill from Baltimore solidified their setup relief.

These teams are pretty evenly matched. The NLCS hasn't gone seven games since that yawner of a seven-gamer between the Cardinals and Mets in 2006, but I say this one goes seven, and the Dodgers go to the World Series.

Phillies at Dodgers, 7 pm CDT. TV: TBS. Announcers: Chip Caray and Ron Darling.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Dodgers site True Blue LA and Phillies site The Good Phight.

Once again, no overflows scheduled today. If you need one, post it in the FanShot section.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Phighting Words: a Q&A With The Good Phight

Eric Stephen — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:03:12 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Finally, after a long layoff, today brings us baseball.

Browse more photos »

As we head into the NLCS, I had a chance to ask a few questions of Peter Baker (aka Whole Camels) of The Good Phight, the SB Nation Phillies blog. Here are his responses:

1) Give me your thoughts on Brad Lidge. Have his struggles been overblown this season? Are you confident with him as closer, or should the job go to someone else?

No, no, and sort of. Lidge's struggles have absolutely not been overblown; if anything they've been underblown (invented word!). His 7.21 ERA could actually have been higher if not for the fact that several of his worst outings were interrupted by the opponents' celebrations at home plate after he served up a walk-off of some kind.

He's been atrocious and there's no way to mitigate it. I'll always love him for 2008 and remain optimistic that he can recapture some of his previous magic... in 2010.

I don't think the Phillies can afford to anoint a "closer" given the struggles of all of the back-of-the-bullpen guys (including nominal New Closer Ryan Madson). They need to play matchups, and with Scott Eyre's appearance in the ninth inning of Game Four versus Colorado, we might be getting a sense that Charlie Manuel intends to do just that.

2) From afar, Cole Hamels looks like the same pitcher as last season based on his peripherals, yet his ERA is over a run worse (4.32 vs. 3.09). Have you noticed any differences between the 2008 and 2009 versions of Hamels that would help explain his rise in ERA?

It's mostly been rotten luck, like you implied. He's still missing bats, he's not walking anyone, but his BABIP is appreciably worse than in 2008, when it was abnormally low. Part of the explanation might rest on the hangover from last season, when he threw a combined 262.1 innings between the regular and postseason, nearly 80 innings more than his previous season high. He's still capable of dominance, but now we're taking it on a game-by-game basis, rather than expecting brilliant outings every night.

Also, in case people forget: Hamels is just 25 years old! He's still a young pitcher, still learning on the job.

3) Since it appears Joe Mauer will win his first MVP award this season, does Chase Utley assume the mantle of "best player without an MVP" or "player better than MVP-winning teammates, yet without an MVP"?

I guess you could say Derek Jeter, if you wanted to acknowledge him in an Al Pacino "Scent of a Woman" way. But yeah, you're generally right on. Chase Utley inhabits that weird limbo where he's widely acknowledged and appreciated for his greatness, but he never had and may never have that one eye-popping season that makes the awards voters take notice. If he ever pops 40 homers, or hits .340, we might have something, but as it is I think we're just going to have to enjoy they guy as he somewhat quietly continues his Hall of Fame level career. That said, he's the best player on the Phillies, has been for several years, and it's not really even close. Season to season, he's pretty consistently the 3rd to 6th best player in the National League.

4) What Phillies player or players are the key(s) to winning this series?

The aforementioned Cole Hamels. If he can dominate, and help the Phillies steal Game One in Los Angeles, and pitch well in a likely Game Five start, he could singularly chart the Phillies' course to the World Series. Cliff Lee covered the NLDS; it's on Hamels to take charge of the NLCS.

On the offensive side of the ball, former Dodger Jayson Werth. Werth demolishes lefty pitching (1.080 OPS), which the Dodgers will be piling on primarily in an attempt to neutralize Ryan Howard. If Werth can rake against the likes of Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw, it'll soften or eliminate the impact of Ryan Howard's relative incompetence against them.

5) What Dodger player or players do you fear the most?

Pitching-wise, Clayton Kershaw. When he's on, he's as good as anyone in baseball. Best strategy against him is to make him work and try to get into an admittedly strong bullpen, where at least you stand a chance.

On offense, Andre Ethier. I'm still pretty traumatized from that series in L.A. earlier this season.

6) Who could eat the most Subway sandwiches in a 10-minute span: Ryan Howard or Jonathan Broxton?

I was and remain appalled that a guy who plies his trade in Philadelphia does ads for Subway. It's the City of Subs (or "Hoagies" to use the local term). Jocking for a terrible national chain joint is disappointing.

That said, Howard has dropped about 25 pounds since last season and has become an unstoppable force on the basepaths (eight steals!). Broxton, on the other hand, just looks like he's gotten fatter. I guess I'll take Howard based on his familiarity with the product, and the knowledge that if he lost the contest, Jared would murder his family. It's a great motivator.

7) Dodger fans seem to get singled out from national announcers for arriving late and leaving early, despite evidence of fans of other teams doing the same. Are there any national perceptions of Philadelphia sports fans that you take issue with?

Where to begin? The booing Santa Claus thing needs to die, yesterday. "Santa" was a drunk college student in a rotten costume, and it dates to the Frankin Field days of the 1960s. It was a poor effort from an awful Eagles franchise and deserved booing. I have no defense for throwing batteries at J.D. Drew. It happened, but again arose from Phillies management's miserable handling of the negotiations with Scott Boras back in 1997.

None of this is to say that Philadelphia fans haven't engaged in some awful, savage behavior -- oh yes, they have (read about their racially-motivated mistreatment of Dick Allen in the 1960s) -- but most of it is in the distant past. The general perception that Philadelphia fans are the worst and only fans to engage in such behavior is what gets to me.

In sum, it's unfair to paint all Dodgers fans with the "arrive late, leave early!" stereotype, just like it's not right to assume that all Phillies fans are baby-eating savages.

8) John Kruk: lovable and revered ex-Phillie, or national buffoon?

Both! He was very good but odd player, a smart hitter, but I always wonder how great he could have been if he had taken care of himself. He spent a season or two in the broadcast booth as the Phillies' color guy and did a pretty good job; he's funny, relaxed, and confident. The problem arises when you try to extract meaningful, astute analysis. He bats about .200 in that regard.

9) What is your prediction for this series?

Phillies win in 6 (you expected something else?). The Dodgers are better than last year, no doubt, but I'm confident in the Phillies' lineup's ability to put runs on the board, and the starting pitching between Hamels, Lee, and your choice of Joe Blanton and Pedro Martinez gets a slight edge over the Dodgers.

Thanks, Peter! Here's to a good series.

Wild Mood Swings: Phillies 5, Rockies 4

dajafi — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 02:24:44 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Man of the hour: Jayson Werth had two big run-scoring hits, this sixth-inning homer and the game-winner in the ninth, as the Phillies closed out the Rockies in Denver. (AP Photo/Jack Dempsey)

Browse more photos »

It's hard to believe, but the Phillies' clinching win of the NLDS was actually more tense, more thrilling, more fulfilling than the long night's journey into morning that was the Game Three victory.

You had Cliff Lee, masterful through seven innings but undone by shoddy defense and relief in the eighth; you had Pedro Feliz, who turned in terrible at-bats again and again; you had Chase Utley, whose fielding mistake opened the floodgates for a Rockies rally that briefly looked like it would send the series back to Philadelphia for a decisive Game Five, but rebounded to turn in a great clutch at-bat in the ninth to get on base with the tying run; you had Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth, who delivered the big run-scoring hits that put the Phils back ahead; and finally, you had Scott Eyre, rebounding from what looked like a season-ending injury not even 20 hours before to get the first two outs in the ninth, and Brad Lidge, drinking again from the sweet cup of redemption, ending another series with another huge strikeout.

As in Game One, this one was about the starters early on. Shane Victorino hit a solo homer in the top of the first to give the Phils a quick 1-0 lead, and Ubaldo Jimenez was lucky to escape a 30-pitch first inning without further damage. But after escaping a bases-loaded, one-out jam in the third with strikeouts of Raul Ibanez and Werth, he locked in for awhile. Lee was even better, holding the Rockies to just four singles through the first five innings. Werth came up again in the top of the sixth and crushed a Jimenez offering into the Phillies bullpen for a 2-0 lead. Colorado finally got on the board in the bottom of the inning, as Todd Helton walked on a series of close pitches and Troy Tulowitzki doubled to the gap to score him. But Garrett Atkins followed with a lineout to Feliz at third that ended the inning as Tulowitzki, running on contact, was doubled off second.

The Phils had another great opportunity in the top of the eighth, loading the bases with one out on three Franklin Morales walks. But Rafael Betancourt came on to retire Feliz on one pitch, a weak popup to third, and escaped when Carlos Ruiz grounded back to the mound. It looked like the missed opportunities--nine men left on base to that point--would cost them as Colorado mounted their last, best rally in the home eighth. With one out, Lee walked Dexter Fowler. Helton came up next and grounded to Utley; rather than taking the sure out, Utley flipped toward second as Fowler leapt over him, possibly interfering; the ball bounced off the glove of Jimmy Rollins, putting two men on. That was it for Lee, as Charlie Manuel double-switched in Ryan Madson to pitch and Ben Francisco to play left field. He briefly looked like a genius when Francisco made a diving catch of Tulowitzki's shallow fly--but pinch-hitter Jason Giambi followed with a flared single to left, tying the game. The next hitter, Yorvit Torrealba, tormented the Phillies again with a double to the gap in right, scoring both men to give the Rockies a 4-2 lead.

Incredibly, the Phillies weren't done. After Greg Dobbs led off the ninth with a strikeout, Rollins singled off Huston Street for the third time in as many at-bats in this series. Victorino grounded into a fielder's choice, bringing up Utley with two outs; on a full count, Utley took an outside pitch to earn a free pass. Howard followed with a ringing double to right that scored both men--despite Victorino's hesitation at third base, which almost caused Utley to catch him--and tied the game. Then Werth delivered his biggest hit in a series full of them: with two strikes, he got his arms extended to knock an outside pitch over the head of Clint Barmes into shallow right. Howard steamed around third and scored without a throw to give the Phils a 5-4 lead.

With left-handed hitters due in the ninth, Manuel turned to Scott Eyre, evidently recovered from that ankle injury on Fowler's Game Three bunt. He induced a groundout from pinch-hitter Eric Young Jr., but could not stop the force of nature that was Carlos Gonzalez in this series: the Rockies outfielder blooped a single into left to put the tying run on. Fowler followed with a soft lineout to Rollins, but Helton singled up the middle to put the potential winning run on. With right-hander Tulowitzki due, Manuel waved in Brad Lidge. He got ahead of Tulowitzki 1-2 with an outside fastball and a slider taken for strikes, and after a check-swing that made it 2-2, ended the series with a 2008-vintage slider on which the Rockies shortstop could not hold up.

These last two nights were playoff baseball at its best. Now it's time to catch up on sleep, take some deep breaths, and get ready for another rematch--against the Dodgers, for the National League pennant.

My experience at Game 3

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 09:15:26 -0000

Last night was my first playoff baseball game. For those of you who could not attend, I'll try to chronicle the experience at Game 3, the first playoff game at Coors Field since Jon Lester clinched the World Series for Boston almost two years ago.

I expected to feel exhilaration, anxiety and excitement for the game. Oddly, my first two strong emotions were frustration and confusion. In spite of arriving an hour early, I missed the first half inning, as the line to enter the stadium took over 50 minutes.

Then the confusion set in as I walked through the tunnel to my section. There wasn't supposed to be snow in the forecast...why was this kid wearing a ski mask? What was with the dry snow falling down around me? Then I realized it wasn't snow at all. The kid was silly overprepared and the white stuff wasn't snow at all. It was white fibers billowing off of 50,109 white and purple oscillating Rocktober towels. Ah, playoff baseball at last.

Highlights:

The game was exceedingly hard-fought. Each time the Phillies scored, the Rockies responded soon thereafter, keeping the shivering witnesses in the game.
There was no wave at any point.
There seemed to be very few Phillies fans, though the one I ended up sitting next to was one of the nicest and agreeable fans of an opposing team I have come across.
I told PhillieFan that it was about time to see a Carlos Gonzalez line drive home run to right. Four pitches later, he delivered.
I am completely positive the Tulo chant echoed all the way to Philadelphia. Or at least to Golden. As I commented in the GT last night, it literally vibrated my seat.
To pass the time in a long entrance line, several loud and spontaneous "GOOOOO!!!! ROOOOOCKIES!!!" chants reverberated around home plate.
Gotta love those towels.

Lowlights:

We lost.
My feet shrugged off the double sock effect and did their best Mr. Deeds impression.
It was freezing cold. While some fans remained rowdy, the chilly temperatures sucked the life out of what I would expect for a playoff crowd. In the critical ninth, few stood and even the big screen that pined for life from the crowd wasn't enough motivation to thaw the fans. The towels didn't have quite the desired effect. This isn't an indictment, as I myself was fairly stagnant. It was just cold.
I saw Utley get hit on his ninth inning "single" from the upper deck.
We still have a lame assortment of walk-up music.

I look forward to seeing a thawed out version of Purple Fever later today. I've included a few other Photos under the fold.

One fan actually had a Jason Giambi jersey. A Rockies Giambi jersey.

Players had new NLDS-style photos. While the Phillies trended towards imitating a biker gang mug shot....

Yorvit Torrealba decided to go with a sad puppy look. Most of the Rockies sported disinterested/spacey mugs, including this one of Tulo or this one of the Little Pony.

But of course, Dex is incapable of not smiling.

Waving the white towel is very different from waving the white flag.

Scott Eyre delivers a pitch that would eventually end up in left-center field after a CarGo double.

Smoke lingers above the field after a short burst of seventh inning fireworks.

It was a tough, tough game to lose, though I'll certainly remember it for its frigidity as well as my initiation to playoff baseball. We'll get them later today with Baldy on the hill, then all bets are off for Game 5. It's not like we haven't won a Cook/Hamels matchup at CBP or anything...

Redeem Team: Phillies 6, Rockies 5

dajafi — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 06:50:55 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Chase Utley started and Brad Lidge finished as the Phillies took a marathon Game Three in frigid conditions, defeating Colorado 6-5. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

If you looked past the absurdly late start time and the absolutely friggin' insane cold temperature--below 30 degrees by the last innings--the pattern for how the Phillies would win their biggest game of the year actually began to lay out with the third batter of the evening. Minutes into what would be an epic of four-plus hours, Chase Utley stepped to the plate with two outs. Utley, a middling 2 for 8 through the first two games of the Division Series after a miserable .204/.304/.343 performance in September, crushed a pitch from Rockies starter Jason Hammel over the right-center field wall to give his team a quick 1-0 lead. Utley made his presence felt with the bat all night, figuring in two big rallies later on and finishing with three hits and a walk.

Happ had no need for redemption after his outstanding regular season, but his first career playoff start isn't likely one he'll remember fondly. The rookie lefty needed more than 30 pitches to get through the first inning as the Rockies scored twice to take a 2-1 lead, and he ultimately lasted just three innings, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks. But his teammates took him off the hook with three runs in the top of the fourth. Shane Victorino led off with a walk, advanced to second on an Utley single and scored on Ryan Howard's single to right-center. After Hammel walked Jayson Werth, he got ahead of Raul Ibanez. But the veteran left fielder--another player look to silence doubters after a mostly pedestrian second half--came back in the at-bat to draw the first and biggest of his three walks for the game, tying the score at 3. After Pedro Feliz grounded into a 1-2-3 double play, Carlos Ruiz put the Phils back ahead with an RBI single that scored Howard.

The Rockies quickly tied it again on a long solo home run from Carlos Gonzalez, the emerging star who notched three more hits plus a walk tonight. But Joe Blanton held Colorado at bay for the rest of his 2 2/3 innings, before giving way to Scott Eyre with two outs in the sixth. By then, the Phils had retaken the lead, on another single from Ruiz that scored Ibanez. With a man on first, Eyre came on to face pinch-hitter extraordinaire Seth Smith, and induced a popup to end the inning.

Eyre did not fare as well an inning later, as Gonzalez led off with a double. Dexter Fowler tried to bunt him over, but Eyre's ankle collapsed and both runners were safe on the corners. Ryan Madson came in to strike out Todd Helton, but the Rockies tied it on a Troy Tulowitzki sac fly that looked much more troublesome off the bat. Madson finished the inning by freezing Yorvit Torrealba--who responded to manager Jim Tracy elevating him to fifth in the batting order by going 0 for 4 with three strikeouts--on outside heat.

The Phillies then let a great chance go by the boards in the top of the eighth, when an Ibanez walk and a bloop Feliz double put men on second and third with one out. Rafael Betancourt held on to strike out Ruiz and pinch-hitter Matt Stairs, and the Rockies seemed to have the momentum going into the home eighth. But Chad Durbin, a reliever I've certainly felt no faith in, and whose appearance on the playoff roster itself was a surprise after a poor regular season, set Colorado down in order, keeping things even. Another fallen star, Jimmy Rollins, stepped up to lead off the ninth, working a full count against Huston Street before singling up the middle. Rollins moved up to second on Victorino's sac bunt and got to third on an Utley infield single that he appeared to foul off his own body, then barely beat (or not) Torrealba's throw to first. Howard's deep sac fly plated Rollins, and the Phillies had their fourth one-run lead of the night.

With Madson used--exactly when he should have been, by the way, with the game on the line in the seventh--Charlie Manuel called on the closer whose reversal of fortune has been the biggest stain on a mostly successful Phillies season, Colorado native Brad Lidge. It was quickly clear that this Lidge had something over the helpless hurler seen a month ago getting smacked around by the likes of the Nationals and Marlins, as he induced an easy groundout from Brad Hawpe to start the inning. But Gonzalez had another superb at-bat, getting ahead 3-0, taking a strike, then fouling off pitch after pitch before taking a close fastball outside for the walk. He stole second with pinch-hitter Jason Giambi up, but had to stay there when the aging slugger fouled out to third. Lidge seemed to pitch around Todd Helton, and put the potential winning run on with another walk. But Tulowitzki, whose sac fly had plated Gonzalez two innings earlier, could only manage a shallow fly ball to left. Ben Francisco settled under it, squeezed, and pumped his fist, and Lidge turned to accept the handshakes and high fives of his teammates--who stood in for who knows how many thousands of exhausted but exhilarated Phillies fans everywhere.

Cliff Lee takes the mound tomorrow at 6 ET, looking to close out the series. As in Game One, he'll face Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez.

Lou Piniella, This One's On You: Bullpen Mismanagement Sends Cubs To 4-3 Loss

Al — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 12:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

Eating your glove won't help, Kevin.

Browse more photos »

Was Lou sleeping in the dugout during the eighth inning? Or for that matter, for the entire game?

Let's reconstruct Carlos Marmol's disastrous eighth inning, in which he wound up walking in a run which gave the Phillies a 3-2 lead. He walked the leadoff hitter, Carlos Ruiz, then got Greg Dobbs and Jimmy Rollins on fairly deep fly balls. By that time he had thrown 13 pitches, only seven of them strikes.

Why wasn't John Grabow warming up right then, considering that after Shane Victorino, THREE tough lefthanded hitters were to follow? Lou has yanked pitchers in the past, well before they needed to be in some cases, for the platoon advantage. Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez are three of the best LH hitters in the National League. But no one got up in the left-field bullpen.

Thus when Marmol hit Victorino (on a 1-2 pitch), no lefthander was ready to go.

Then when Marmol walked Utley, still no lefthander was ready to go.

So while Marmol was walking Howard to force in the tying run, only then did Grabow hurriedly get up and get ready. Too late, unfortunately; Grabow did come in after throwing only a handful of warmup pitches and struck out Ibanez, but the Phillies had the lead.

What if Grabow comes in to face Utley? Maybe he gets him and the game stays tied, and then Milton Bradley's clutch 9th-inning single wins it. It's possible, of course, that Brad Lidge isn't pitching in the 9th in a tie game, but maybe the Cubs win some other way. And incidentally, next time you complain about Kevin Gregg blowing saves, Lidge has seven of them this year, leading the major leagues and sports a ridiculous 7.36 ERA.

And at this point, Carlos Marmol can't be trusted in the eighth inning any more; he's got to be used only in low-leverage situations in blowouts. Give the eighth-inning job to Angel Guzman (who threw two solid innings last night).

I've got more, but there's too much to squeeze in here above the fold.

The Cubs lost to the Phillies in 12 innings 4-3, after Kevin Gregg gave up his MLB-leading (among relievers) 11th homer of the season. There's more Lou blame to lay: why was Aaron Miles in the game pinch-hitting for Guzman in the 10th inning? Miles came into the game 2-for-14 as a pinch-hitter. I'd have rather seen Koyie Hill up there. Or Aramis Ramirez -- seriously, if Ramirez isn't OK to pinch-hit in that situation, which called for him even though his shoulder is barking at him, he needs to go on the DL. It was laughable that Charlie Manuel felt he had to pull the right-handed Tyler Walker for Scott Eyre right there, because Manuel must have known Lou wouldn't call on Ramirez. Miles cooperated by swinging at Eyre's first pitch and grounding into a force play.

Can we take up a collection? I'd guess that by the end of this homestand, five more games, between the (approximately) 200,000 people who will come into Wrigley Field by Sunday, and everyone here at BCB, we could collect enough money to pay off the second year of Miles' contract, give the money to the Cubs, and then they could just release him. I'm not going to get into the "worst free-agent signing" debate about Miles, because clearly, the 25th man on the roster isn't going to make a difference in many games.

But he did last night, and the Cubs have to have five or six people in the minor league system who could play better just by accident. Andres Blanco is eligible to come off the disabled list next Wednesday (the 19th), and maybe then Jim Hendry can cut the cord on Miles.

All of this ruined an outstanding outing by Rich Harden, who retired the first sixteen batters he faced before walking Ruiz in the sixth, and then, one out later, giving up a no-doubt-about-it homer to Rollins that cut through the teeth of a pretty good wind blowing in. Here's another one on Lou: why wasn't Harden at least allowed to start the eighth inning? He did allow two more baserunners in the seventh, but had thrown only 87 pitches, and the bottom of the Phillies order was due up. Why not give Harden at least a chance to go eight?

It also spoiled another fine day from Milton Bradley, who had two hits, drove in the tying run in the ninth and gave the Cubs a shot at winning the game by stealing only his second base of the season when Derrek Lee struck out in that inning. If Jake Fox could have driven the ball just a bit farther past Victorino that inning, we'd be talking about a dramatic Cubs victory. Bradley also made three fine catches in right field, as Jack Brickhouse might have described them: "plucking the balls off the tops of tall blades of grass out there!" Bradley seems energized since moving to the #2 spot in the lineup -- keep up the good work, Milton.

The night also featured, for the second day in a row, an umpire-reviewed replay of an apparent home run, by Carlos Ruiz in the top of the ninth. Third base umpire Dale Scott signaled home run on a ball that was at least ten feet on the foul side of the left-field foul pole -- the fan who caught it was in section 101, clearly on the foul side of the line. The umpires, reviewing a HR call for the first time in Wrigley Field history, went through the Cubs dugout to watch replay, came back and correctly ruled it foul. Ruiz then grounded out.

Non-baseball incident of interest: about an hour before game time, a couple of men were arrested for allegedly selling counterfeit tickets outside the bleachers near the corner of Waveland and Kenmore. This arrest took no fewer than nine police cars and a police scooter, and a third man was talking to the police -- apparently, one of the men arrested had the third man's cellphone. This got the third man carted away, also.

Fortunately for the Cubs, all of the teams they are chasing in the division and wild-card races -- the Cardinals, Giants and Rockies -- also lost games at home last night (can someone explain to me how the Pirates can beat the Rockies in Denver, but the Cubs can't?). Thus, the Cubs lost no ground to any of them, and still trail by only three games in both races. There's still plenty of time to catch up.

But they had better start now, and the manager had better get his head on straight again.

Rockies close out road trip by visiting World Series champs

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:53:47 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Other than Tim Lincecum, this was the only guy to give up less HR/9 than Ubaldo Jimenez last year. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner makes his debut at Citizens Bank Park Thursday.

Browse more photos »

Of their last eight series, the Rockies have faced just one team above .500 (the Giants) and zero teams that one would consider had an above average offense. It's time for a litmus test. I'm sure Philly and their unphailing aphinity for pH will be suitable.

Philadelphia took 2 of 3 from the Rockies in April, but none of the Phillies' starting pitchers from that series will face Colorado this time around. Naturally, much has changed for these teams since that series. That was back when Ryan Spilborghs was the primary CF and Jason Grilli was the 7th inning man. Perhaps more valid are recent games.

Philadelphia won 14 of 16 from July 8- and 18 of 21 from July 3-28 but have since hit a bump in the road. They have lost 4 of 5 (all against the NL West), their worst stretch in nearly six weeks. The only game they won in the last rotation cycle was by newly acquired Cliff Lee, as they dropped 3 of 4 to San Francisco at AT&T Park. But of course, they are blaming the ballpark since:

"Quite a few balls we hit were homers in Philly,'' - Jayson Werth

"If we play at our field, I think it will be different...you see where we hit the ball, those are definitely out of our ballpark." - Cole Hamels

No kidding. But you guys might not want to use Citizens Bank Park as your standard, even if it is your home park. Both teams hit in the same conditions. You just got beat, and you have to be able to win games on the road to be a legitimate playoff team. The Rockies split two games at AT&T Park earlier this year. The ascertation of blaming the park is a bit strange coming from the Phillies, whose 27-25 home record is worse than the Rockies' 31-26 mark on the road, while Philly is a league best 32-19 on the road.

As for head to head, the Rockies have won just 1 of their past 9 games against Philly, losing all four on the road in that stretch. One other interesting note for the series: all three starting pitchers for Philly are left-handed. Despite the fact that the Rockies' best lineup includes only three RH bats, Colorado is a cool 16-16 against LHP and actually sport a better situational OPS against lefties.

A series win actually yields at least a winning road trip at 6-4 (7-3 with a sweep), while scratching out one win in Pennsylvania will go down as a 5-5 road trip, not terrible given the east coast nature and debacle at Citi Field.

To see the Philly side of things, immerse yourself in the overuse of pH, which continues to maniphest in the Phillies' SBNation blog as well: The Good Phight.

Philadelphia Phillies (59-44, L2, 1st, 5 Gm lead)

Tuesday-Thursday: 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park

The Bats: A-

Philly is dead average in batting average at .260, but make no mistake - their offense if vaunted and quite frankly belongs in the American League. They lead the NL in HR, SLG and wOBA (though are 3rd, 6th and 5th in those categories overall). Their 143 HR are far ahead of Colorado's 122, which is 2nd in the NL. Overall, the offense is incredibly strong, and facing them will be like a facing a Ubaldo heater after a month of BP off of Livan Hernandez. I've rated the last teams the Rockies have faced offensively as F, D+, F, D-, D, C-, C, D-. Five-eighths of their starting lineup was at the All-Star Game this year, and of the three who weren't, one was the 2007 MVP and another is a well-known Rockie-killer. The vaunted lineup:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jimmy Rollins - SS	.239	11	47	.290	.385	.299
Shane Victorino - CF	.315	8	48	.382	.470	.373
Chase Utley - 2B	.301	23	70	.420	.546	.424
Ryan Howard - 1B	.263	26	78	.347	.529	.375
Raul Ibanez - LF	.301	26	75	.366	.627	.417
Jayson Werth - RF	.270	22	66	.381	.503	.383
Pedro Feliz - 3B	.289	6	52	.337	.395	.322
Carlos Ruiz - C	.225	5	24	.325	.368	.304

By wOBA metrics, the lineup features two hitters performing at Superstar levels (Utley and Ibanez) , one performing at a strong All-Star caliber clip (Werth), two hitting well above average on the cusp of being a legit All-Star (Howard and Victorino), one below average hitter (Feliz), one well below average hitter (Ruiz) and one hitting very very poorly (Rollins). The 2007 MVP has a worse wOBA than several stud shortstops, like Luis Valbuena, Everth Cabrera, Willie Bloomquist, and Julio Lugo. Chase Utley is the Most Valuable Player in MLB by FG value.

Victorino has been relegated to pinch-hitting the last few games with a bruised knee but will return to the lineup, if not tonight, sometime in the series. He has been replaced by the only bench player younger than 31 - Ben Francisco (.253/.335/.425). Matt Stairs (.230, 4, 13) joins Francisco in the outfield reserves while Paul Bako (.167, 0, 4) is the backup catcher since Chris Coste was claimed off waivers by the Astros July 11. Eric Bruntlett (.133, 0, 6) and Greg Dobbs (.256, 5, 18) fill out the old, balanced and slow bench.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: B-

The Phillies' staff ERA of 4.37 (19th) and ERA+ of 98 certainly aren't overwhelming. However, they have taken great strides in improving that. Their rotation ERA has improved to 4.60 (20th) with the addition of J.A. Happ yet stills sports a 4.69 FIP and 4.80 tRA. Adding Cliff Lee and subtracting Chan Ho Park or Rodrigo Lopez is a huge boost to that though. Their bullpen has been below average as well, posting a 3.94 ERA (13th), 4.48 FIP (22nd) and 4.74 tRA. By Fangraphs value, the pitching staff has been fifth worst in the majors. Again, this should be adjusted upwards, particularly for this series, given the addition of Cliff Lee and J.A. Happ's addition to the rotation in late May. In addition, Brad Lidge has been horrific as the Phillies closer, but in a small sample, we all know he can be far more dominating than your average pitcher with an ERA north of 7.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Brad Lidge	0-4	7.11	1.79	41	24

Charlie Manual's lone lefty is Scott Eyre. Ryan Madson sets up for Brad Lidge, Tyler Walker is a middle reliever, while right handers Kyle Kendrick, Rodrigo Lopez, and Chan Ho Park represent rotation outcasts in the pen. Walker, Park and Madson have been above average relievers, while the rest (sans Lopez who has yet to appear as a reliever) have been liabilities out of the pen.

The D: B

The Phillies are ranked 10th in UZR/150 while also making the 3rd-least errors which equates to Fangraphs' 10th best fielding value. Should you choose to believe Fangraphs, Philly has above average fielders at every position except CF, where Shane Victorino has been a strong liability (-8.8) almost to the point of being Brad Hawpe (-11.7).

The Ballpark: Slight hitter's park

Contrary to many popular advances, Citizens Bank Park isn't video game bandbox. It's 102/101 Baseball Reference park factor does ascertain its offensive tendencies, but they are far slighter than advertised. The park smothers inside-the-park hits while ballooning home run numbers. Its 116.4 HR/FB park factor is less than Coors Field's 121.6 however while being more on par with Chase Field's 115.3.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 5:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	5-6	4.66	1.50	71	25

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jamie Moyer	10-7	5.32	1.45	65	33

Hammel has never been a full-time starter. Perhaps fatigue or scouting reports are starting to catch up to him, as he has given up at least four runs in three of five starts, with the only two quality starts coming against the pansy offenses in San Diego and San Francisco. Jamie Moyer has won 6 of his last 7 starts, posting a 3.30 ERA in July despite pitching in very offensive minded parks. There were even reports he reached 83mph on his fastball once or twice. Hammel has been the better pitcher overall this year, but Moyer is going to force Jim Tracy to use a lot of the bench in terms of RH bats in the lineup. Favors: ROCKIES very slightly

Wednesday, August 5, 5:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	9-7	4.68	1.35	117	50

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - J.A. Happ	7-2	2.97	1.16	76	35

DLR is on some kind of run, winning a franchise record seven straight starts, winning part of a streak where he has won 9 of 10 decisions. His 5-0 July with a 2.50 ERA should put him in the conversation for NL Pitcher of the Month (no one else managed a 5-0 month). Statcorner rates him as a better starting pitcher this year than any Phillie hurler, including Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ, who is enjoying a fantastic year, with the help of some better than average BABIP and strand rates. He throws a fastball around 90mph almost three quarters of the time, which is rated by Fangraphs as the 12th best fastball in MLB. He as also apparently scrapped his slider in exchange for a cutter and throws a change and curve. This is another competitive pitching matchup, though the Phillies' superior offense and home field offer a boost. Favors: PHILLIES slightly

Thursday, August 6, 11:05 MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-3	3.88	1.41	73	41

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Cliff Lee	8-9	3.02	1.27	113	35

Lee threw a complete game four-hitter, allowing just one run in his Phillies debut, though it was in San Francisco. He has been death on lefties, of which the Rockies' best hitters are, though Colorado has hit better off lefties than righties for the season. In his lasat four starts, Lee is 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA, striking out 20 and walking jsut 2 in 36 IP. It's going to be a tough matchup, even though the Rockies turn to their "ace." Aaron Cook hasn't lost since "the streak" started in early June, winning his past seven decisions, even with an inconsistent sinker. He is giving up more HR than any other full season in his career. If Cook is on, the aggressive Phillies might find themselves trotting to first and back to the dugout frequently. If he's not, this will be a difficult game to win. Favors: PHILLIES strongly

My take

The Rockies can take this series over the struggling Phillies, but it would be difficullt to go through Cliff Lee. The traditional home field advantage is out the window, given that the Rockies are better on the road than Philly is at home this year. The addition of Franklin Morales and Joe Beimel to the bullpen make the Rockies far more suitable to face Charlie Manual's big lefty or switch bats (Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Ibanez) late in the game, especially since all five hit in consecutive order. On top of that, Greg Dobbs and Matt Stairs are their top two PHers, and both swings from the left side. The Rockies actually have a bullpen advantage, so if the Rockies' three starters each turn in a quality start, they have a chance, though winning just one game should not be seen as a failure.

Jimmy Rollins has a nine game hitting streak and is hitting over .315 since July 1. Cliff Lee is pitching dominantly (see above), while Ibanez, Howard and Victorino have 10 HR between them, each around a .900 OPS since the ASB. Scott Eyre has appeared in 32 games this year. He allowed a solo homer July 29 - before that, the last time he allowed an earned run was April 27, the only other appearance he allowed a run (he allowed four).

Matt Stairs has just one hit in 20 ABs. Philly catchers are just 10 for their past 63, and Pedro Feliz has just one XBH in his 66 post-ASB ABs. Brad Lidge just posted a 5.91 ERA in July, his best month of the year. Tyler Walker and Ryan Madson also posted July ERAs over 5.00.

Shane Victorino is listed as probably for tonight's game with a bruised knee but will be starting at some point in the series, if not tonight. Brett Myers did the rotation a favor by going on the 60-day DL May 28 with a hip injury, which in part opened the door for Happ to hold onto a rotation slot. Five pitchers are on the 15 day DL, including Clay Condrey (oblique - 7/23), J.C. Romero (forearm - 7/20), Chad Durbin (7/23), Pedro Martinez (shoulder - 7/15), and Antonio Bastardo (shoulder - 6/26)

Poll

How will you feel at the end of the road trip

Phantastic! - a sweep in Philly gives us a 7-3 road trip after losing the first 3. Phenomenal!

19 votes

Very happy - Winning 6 of 10 on the road, especially when three are against Philly, is more than acceptable.

78 votes

Good/Neutral. Wish we could have done more damage, but after getting one in Philly, 5-5 on a road swing isn't so bad.

39 votes

Disappointed. Getting swept means a losing road trip and questions of illegitimacy. 4-6 isn't bad on the road, but when facing the Mets and Reds, it IS, at least for a team hoping to contend.

3 votes

139 votes | Poll has closed

Phillies vs. Pirates: July 10-12

Matt Swartz — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:00:55 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

The high-riding Phillies will finish up their homestand this week against the Pirates before the All-Star break. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

Browse more photos »

The Phillies (45-38) look to continue their winning home stand against the Pirates (38-47) this weekend at Citizens Bank Park before all but four of them will take a nice relaxing All-Star Break. Just a week ago, the Phillies were only two games over .500 and only barely in first in the NL East. Now, they have swept the rival Mets and taken three of four from the Reds, and they come into this series with a two-game lead over the Marlins who refuse to be as bad as sabermetricians tell them they are, a solid five game lead over the Braves, and a lead over the Mets that has grown from one game to five and a half in just a week. The Pirates were still hanging around a couple weeks ago, but have lost eight of eleven and are now in last place and are a full eight games out of first in the NL Central.

The Pirates are in a slow rebuilding process. Neil Huntington took the helm at GM just a year and a half ago and is transforming the Pirates into a younger better team. Huntington is what they call a "new school" GM, and has utilized sabermetrics in trying to rebuild the Pirates. While they have shown some signs of improvement, they are still not quite a good baseball team yet. They have a lot of young talent, and should become more dangerous in the next few years.

Their lineup is pretty right-handed but they do have a solid stream of hitters that they did not have a couple years ago. Each of the first six hitters has a decent chance of hitting a mistake out of the park, but none of them are perennial power hitters. The seventh hitter for the Pirates is our old friend, Jason Jaramillo, who the Phillies traded for Ronnie Paulino who they subsequently shipped to the Giants for Jack Taschner who they designated for assignment a couple days ago. The Pirates' bench is pretty weak, and there is not really anyone to be afraid of coming off the bench.

The Pirates' bullpen has been in flux throughout the year, constantly making me update my Pirates file on my computer for series previews. They do not have any lights out relievers at this point, though they do have a few guys who can get you out. The only lefty in the pen is John Grabow, who is primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher (though he occassionally throws his slider) and as a result does not have a deep platoon split. This should give the Phillies the opportunity to set up the lefties in their lineup the way that they would like without worrying about vulnerabilities to a late inning LOOGY.

Why does that matter? Because Raul Ibanez is back. He spent three weeks on the disabled list with a strained groin after cooling off from a red hot start. Reports are that he will be in the lineup tonight after doubling in his presumably final rehab start in the minors. Everyone should remember that we are getting Raul Ibanez back, and not necessarily the recincarnated Babe Ruth we had hitting in his uniform earlier this year. But he is still a very talented hitter that should make both the Phillies bench and lineup stronger in coming back.

Friday night's matchup will be Joe Blanton against Zach Duke. Blanton has baffled me this year by posting strikeout numbers that far exceeded his career averages without throwing any more swinging strikes, any more called strikes, or adding any new pitches to his repertoire. He just suddenly seemed to improve...unless you look at his ERA which has been terrible without the peripherals to justify a decline at all. Blanton shut down the Mets for seven and a third strong innings on Sunday to complete the sweep and lowered his ERA by a solid amount. Zach Duke is the only left handed starter the Phillies will face this weekend. He does have better numbers against lefties than righties, but not an extreme split that would be concerning. He was projected to have an ERA near 5 this year, but has managed a very solid 3.28 ERA. This ERA is pretty surprising considering he has the same low strikeout and walk numbers that he's always had, and has induced even fewer groundballs than before. His BABIP is .273, which is a little bit on the lucky side, but enough to drop someone's ERA nearly two full runs? That could explain maybe half a run or a run, but not the rest. The reason is primarily that he has pitched far better with runners on base than with bases empty. The end result is that he is putting guys on base and stranding them. His opponents' OPS is nearly .100 points lower with runners on, and with multiple runners on, it's even lower than that. This is something Kyle Kendrick showed us is not a persistent skill. In fact, Duke will probably regress a lot and end up with an ERA over 4 this year, in my opinion.

On Saturday night, the Phillies send Cole Hamels to the mound. Hamels had a lot of hype surrounding him going into this season, and the impression has been that he was not living up to it. That idea is belied by the fact that Hamels has been striking out more batters, walking fewer, and generating as many groundballs as last year. He has even generated the same number of infield flies. The only real difference is that he has seen a huge jump in his line drive singles and doubles and a huge decline in his outfield flyballs. That is not the kind of thing that just happens without changing back soon later-- it's not a persistent skill to generate 300 foot flyballs or avoid line drives. Specifically, his BABIP is .353. I proposed a theory a couple months ago that the lack of BABIP persistence for pitchers was not entirely based on BABIP being a matter of luck, but on hitters and pitchers adjusting to each other. I pointed out that if a hitter knew that an outside fastball was coming on every pitch, they would learn to just hit singles the opposite way and the pitcher would have a higher BABIP than .300. The thing is that pitcers just don't do that. They mix their pitches, akin to a mixed a strategy in game theory, and the result is that hitters try to guess right. When they do, they can make contact. If hitters can guess what's coming better, the pitcher will have a BABIP above .300 and the pitcher will adjust by the time any correlation would have showed up. The example that I like to give is that Kirk Gibson hit his famous homerun off Dennis Eckersley only because a scout told him that Eck always threw backdoor sliders to left handed power hitters on full counts. Gibson sat on it, made history. Guessing right leads to hitting the ball harder and any pitching coach worth his salt will notice this and make his pitchers adjust. Now, looking at Hamels BABIPs with one strike, I realized that they were very high and I wonder if Hamels hasn't been predictable regarding pitch selection on those pitches. Sure enough, after I formed this hypothesis, Hamels shut down the Reds allowing just three hits on 21 balls in play, and no hits on six balls in play with one strike. Hamels was able to get the second strike effectively against the Reds. Here's hoping he has adjusted.

The Pirates will counter with Ross Ohlendorf on Saturday evening. The right-hander has beaten projections of a mid-5's ERA with a 4.63 ERA thus far this year. This is despite the fact that he has struck out fewer batters than expected by a solid margin without improving in his walk or groundball rates. Ohlendorf has allowed fewer hits on balls in play to make up this difference. Ohlendorf performs far bettter against righties than lefties, and the Phillies will probably stack the lineup with lefties to try to score runs off him.

On Sunday, the Phillies will send J.A. Happ to the mound against Virgil Vasquez. Happ has been solid this year, though has been the beneficiary of good fortune himself. Vasquez was only called up to the majors a few starts ago by the Pirates after exhibiting excellent control in the minors.

MATCHUPS:
Friday, 7:05-- Joe Blanton (R) vs. Zach Duke (L)
Saturday, 7:05-- Cole Hamels (L) vs. Ross Ohlendorf (R)
Sunday, 1:35-- J.A. Happ (L) vs. Virgil Vasquez (R)

After the jump, I preview the players, their splits, and the matchups.

PIRATES

LINE UP

1) CF Andrew McCutchen (R): .291/.346/.440

projection average (proj): .265/.330/.380
projected BB/PA (bb): 9%
projected K/AB (k): 19%
career gb% (gb): 47%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 15% (2 of first 13 popups)
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 21% in first 19 groundballs in majors
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): projected around .305
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): patient hitter without a great eye, above average contact
righty/lefty (r/l): .955 vs .722 ops in minors; 1.1 vs 1.8 k/bb in minors
home/away (h/a): not enough info
pull/opposite (p/o): not enough info
anything else (other): none

2) 2B Freddy Sanchez (R): .316/.355/.477

proj: .290/.325/.410
bb: 5%
k: 11%
gb: 42%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projected around .315, which is exactly where i have him
s/c/z: free swinger with above average contact and poor eye
r/l: .718 vs .896 ops; 2.8 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .775 vs .749 ops; 2.1 vs 2.3 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

3) RF Delwyn Young (S): .315/.388/.403

proj: .270/.320/.430
bb: 7%
k: 22%
gb: 47%
iff: 18%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .320
s/c/z: poor eye, not very patient, below average contact
r/l: .761 vs .775 ops; 2.9 vs 2.0 k/bb
h/a: .823 vs .717 ops; 2.6 vs 2.5 k/bb
p/o: spreads ball around very well
other: none

4) 1B Adam LaRoche (L): .259/.345/.464

proj: .270/.340/.480
bb: 10%
k: 23%
gb: 39%
iff: 7%
ifh: 3%
babip: projected around .310; i have him at .301
s/c/z: good eye, pretty patient, average contact
r/l: .852 vs .752 ops; 1.9 vs 3.6 k/bb
h/a: .864 vs .800 ops; 2.3 vs 2.1 k/bb
p/o: pull hitter
other: none

5) LF Garrett Jones (L): .290/.333/.613

proj: .255/.310/.425
bb: 7%
k: 21%
gb: 41% in minors
iff: 17% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .290
s/c/z: not a great eye, so-so patience, below average contact
r/l: .814 vs .690 ops in minor league career; 2.0 vs 5.2 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: seems like a pull hitter
other: none

6) 3B Andy LaRoche (R): .269/.346/.487

proj: .245/.330/.400
bb: 11%
k: 17%
gb: 47%
iff: 11%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .265
s/c/z: average eye, average patient, average contact
r/l: .661 vs .562 ops; 1.5 vs 1.6 k/bb
h/a: .609 vs .661 ops; 2.2 vs 1.1 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

7) C Jason Jaramillo (S): .255/.327/.389

proj: .250/.310/.360
bb: 8%
k: 19%
gb: 44%
iff: 18%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected around .295
s/c/z: decent eye, somewhat patient, decent contact
r/l: .681 vs .747 ops in minors; 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

8) SS Jack Wilson (R): .270/.304/.403

proj: .270/.320/.375
bb: 6%
k: 11%
gb: 44%
iff: 14%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .295; i have him at .286
s/c/z: pretty good eye, pretty patient, good contact
r/l: .667 vs .753 ops; 2.7 vs 1.1 k/bb
h/a: .712 vs .659 ops; 1.8 vs 1.6 k/bb
p/o: somewhat of a pull hitter
other: none

BENCH

C Robinson Diaz (R): .295/.314/.375

proj: .275/.310/.380
bb: 3%
k: 9%
gb: 57% in minors
iff: 12% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: bad eye, not patient, good contact
r/l: .711 vs .731 ops in minors; 1.2 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

IF Ramon Vazquez (L): .243/.351/.279

proj: .250/.330/.370
bb: 10%
k: 22%
gb: 47%
iff: 5%
ifh: 5%
babip: projected around .305
s/c/z: good eye, patient, decent contact
r/l: .728 vs .500 ops; 1.8 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .689 vs .677 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: none

OF Brandon Moss (L): .253/.305/.369

proj: .265/.325/.430
bb: 9%
k: 26%
gb: 45%
iff: 6%
ifh: 4%
babip: projected around .330
s/c/z: decent eye but not patient, average contact
r/l: .708 vs .691 ops; 3.4 vs 2.4 k/bb
h/a: .792 vs .620 ops; 2.2 vs 4.5 k/bb
p/o: somewhat extreme pull hitter
other: none

IF/OF Steve Pearce (R): .083/.214/.167 in 14 PA; .277/.363/.476 in 268 PA in AAa

proj: .270/.330/.450
bb: 7%
k: 19%
gb: 42%
iff: 13%
ifh: 2%
babip: projected around .300
s/c/z: okay eye, okay patience, below average contact
r/l: .634 vs .884 ops; 2.8 vs 5.0 k/bb (151 vs 55 PA)
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

OF Jeff Salazar (L): 0 for 3 in majors; .265/.325/.415 in 317 PA in AAA

proj: .250/.340/.380
bb: 11%
k: 20%
gb: 35%
iff: 7%
ifh: 7%
babip: projected around .295
s/c/z: good eye, pretty patient, so-so contact
r/l: .727 vs .591 ops; only 22 PA vs LHP though
h/a: not enough info
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY OPPONENT: Zach Duke (L): 3.28 ERA, 2.2 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, 4.19 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 49%
pitches: 57% fb, 19% ch, 18% cb, 7% sl, 0.1% ct
r/l: .811 vs .733 ops; 1.7 vs 2.7 k/bb
h/a: .783 vs .812 ops; 2.2 vs 1.7 k/bb

Duke vs Phillies:

Utley: 2/9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Feliz: 1/8, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 2/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 3/6, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 1/3, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Werth: 2/3, 1 HR, 1 BB, 1 K
Howard: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K

SATURDAY OPPONENT: Ross Ohlendorf (R): 4.63 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.74 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 5.30 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 66% fb, 20% sl, 14% ch, 0.5% cb
r/l: .691 vs .945 ops; 2.4 vs 1.3 k/bb
h/a: .768 vs .861 ops; 1.8 vs 1.7 k/bb

Ohlendorf vs Phillies:

Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SUNDAY OPPONENT: Virgil Vasquez (R): 4.50 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.61 FIP, 44% GB in majors (18 IP), in 79.2 IP in AAA: 4.18 ERA, 1.1 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.12 FIP, 48% GB

proj avg: 5.20 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.6 HR/9
gb: 40% in majors
pitches: 56% fb, 21% sl, 13% cb, 10% ch, 0.5% ct
r/l: pretty even in minors; hit a little harder by lefties in minors but similar k/bb
h/a: not enough info

Vazquez: has not played any Phillies

NOT FACING US: Paul Maholm (L): 4.60 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.53 FIP, 51% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 53%
pitches: 54% fb, 14% sl, 17% ch, 15% cb
r/l: .801 vs .558 ops; 1.6 vs 3.4 k/bb
h/a: .699 vs .818 ops; 1.9 vs 1.8 k/bb

Maholm vs Phillies:

Howard: 2/14, 1 BB, 5 K
Rollins: 3/13, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Utley: 3/13, 1 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Werth: 3/12, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K
Bruntlett: 3/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 2/8, 1 BB, 0 K
Coste: 3/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Ruiz: 2/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Bako: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

NOT FACING US: Charlie Morton (R): 4.29 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 0.4 HR/9, 3.34 FIP, 45% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 4.3 BB?9, 6.5 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 65% fb, 16% ch, 11% cb, 8% sl
r/l: .715 vs .925 ops; 1.1 vs 1.2 k/bb
h/a: .887 vs .720 ops; 1.2 vs 1.1 k/bb

Morton vs Phillies:

Howard: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Rollins: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 1/2, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 1 BB

BULLPEN

CL: Matt Capps (R): 4.71 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.3 K/9, 1.3 HR/9, 4.83 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.30 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 35%
pitches: 76% fb, 16% sl, 8% ch
r/l: .657 vs .702 ops; 5.4 vs 3.0 k/bb
h/a: .652 vs .705 ops; 4.0 vs 4.2 k/bb

Capps vs Phillies:

Rollins: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Coste: 1/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Jesse Chavez (R): 3.22 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 4.29 FIP, 36% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 63% fb, 19% ch, 17% sl, 0.3% sf, 0.1% ct
r/l: .896 vs .547 ops; 2.7 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .570 vs .930 ops; 2.0 vs 2.0 k/bb

Chavez: has not faced any Phillies

John Grabow (L): 3.49 ERA, 5.1 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.14 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 46%
pitches: 49% fb, 37% ch, 14% sl
r/l: .750 vs .720 ops; 1.5 vs 3.7 k/bb
h/a: .718 vs .763 ops; 2.1 vs 2.0 k/bb

Grabow vs Phillies:

Howard: 0/6, 0 BB, 3 K
Utley: 3/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bako: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Bruntlett: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Feliz: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Rollins: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Coste: 0/1, 1 BB, 0 K
Dobbs: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Ruiz: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Evan Meek (R): 2.76 ERA, 6.9 BB/9, 6.9 K/9, 0.6 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERRA< 4.4 BB/9, 6.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 52%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ch, 12% ct, 11% sl, 1% ch
r/l: .903 vs 658 ops; 0.4 vs 1.4 k/bb
h/a: .588 vs .982 ops; 0.8 vs 0.5 k/bb

Meek vs Phillies:

Feliz: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Howard: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Utley: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K
Werth: 1 BB

Joel Hanrahan (R): 5.64 ERA, 4.4 BB/9, 11.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.15 FIP, 43% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 4.5 BB/9, 9.0 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 67% fb, 31% sl, 2% ch
r/l: typical
h/a: much better at home: 2.6 k/bb vs. 1.3; .680/.842 ops

Hanrahan vs Phillies:

Werth: 0/9, 4 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 2/11, 1 HR, 1 BB, 2 K
Rollins: 2/10, 0 BB, 3 K
Howard: 0/8, 1 BB, 7 K
Ruiz: 3/7, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 K
Utley: 1/3, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 SF, 1 HBP
Coste: 1/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Victorino: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Bruntlett: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Dobbs: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Bako: 1/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Steven Jackson (R): 3.44 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 5.40 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 55% in minors
pitches: 60% fb, 17% sf, 17% sl, 6% ch
r/l: better against RHB in minors noticeably
h/a: not enough info

Jackson: has not played any Phillies

Jeff Karstens (R): 4.85 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 3.6 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.33 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.90 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 5.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 38%
pitches: 56% fb, 18% sl, 14% ch, 13% cb
r/l: .849 vs .785 ops; 1.6 vs 1.0 k/bb
h/a: .864 vs .776 ops; 1.2 vs 1.2 k/bb

Karstens vs Phillies:

Bako: 1/3, 0 BB, 0 K
Ibanez: 1/3, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Stairs: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

SENT TO AAA: Ian Snell (R): 5.36 ERA, 4.9 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 4.56 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.60 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.5 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 42%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% sl, 14% cb, 10% ch
r/l: .745 vs .880 ops; 2.9 vs 1.8 k/bb
h/a: .805 vs .813 ops; 1.8 vs 1.9 k/bb

Snell vs Phillies:

Rollins: 12/19, 1 2B, 4 3B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Howard: 2/13, 2 BB (1 IBB), 6 K, 1 Sf
Utley: 1/11, 1 2B, 1 BB, 3 K
Bako: 2/9, 1 BB, 3 K
Dobbs: 4/8, 2 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Coste: 0/8, 1 BB (IBB), 2 K
Victorino: 2/4, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Werth: 0/4, 1 BB, 1 K
Bruntlett: 0/4, 0 BB, 4 K
Feliz: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Ruiz: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Stairs: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

PHILLIES

LINE UP

1) SS Jimmy Rollins (S): .227/.281/.351

projection average (proj): .285/.350/.460
projected BB/PA (bb): 8%
projected K/AB (k): 11%
career gb% (gb): 42%
career infield flies/flyball (iff): 10%
career infield hits/groundball (ifh): 5%
batting average on balls in play tendencies (babip): about average overall, though a little bit high popup rate so slightly below average
swing/contact/zone facts (s/c/z): good eye, pretty selective, but very high contact rate so low walk rate
righty/lefty (r/l): 1.7 vs 1.3 k/bb, mostly because of higher k-rate as lhb. otherwise similar on contact
home/away (h/a): 1.5 vs 1.7 k/bb; .805 vs .739 ops
pull/opposite (p/o): definite pull hitter
anything else (other): stole 47 bases in 50 attempts last year.

2) CF Shane Victorino (S): .309/.375/.463

proj: .285/.345/.430
bb: 7.5%
k: 13%
gb: 46%
iff: 15%
ifh: 8%
babip: slightly above average due to high babip on groundballs-- partly because infield plays in for him and he spreads the ball around well; not that high due to high infield fly rate
s/c/z: pretety bad eye but high contact rate
r/l: much more power righthanded (1.6% to 3.8% HR rate), but much better k/bb as lefty: 1.65 vs 1.88; higher babip lefty also (.316 vs .286)
h/a: far fewer walks on road but nearly exactly the same strikeout rate, same power, same babip
p/o: pull hitter both ways
other: stole 36 of 47 bases last year

3) 2B Chase Utley (L): .307/.427/.578

proj: .295/.380/.525
bb: 9.5%
k: 18%
gb: 37%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: distinctly above average historically and for projections too; seemingly strong power leads to high line drive babip rate and reasonably high groundball babip especially

for pull hitting lefty; high on flyballs despite high infield fly rate since he hits deep flyballs
s/c/z: pretty good eye, somewhat selective, somewhat high contact rate
r/l: not significant-- only 1.7 vs 2.0 k/bb; .919 vs .865 ops
h/a: similar k/bb home & away; better hr at home-- probably park factors; higher babip at home too
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against power pitchers relative to other hitters

4) 1B Ryan Howard (L): .253/.332/.522

proj: .275/.375/580
bb: 14%
k: 33%
gb: 40%
iff: 2%
ifh: 4%
babip: low on groundballs over time as he pulls the vast majority of them; very very high on flyballs because he almost never pops out in the infield at all and many of his flyballs are very deep. also since so few of his flyballs stay in the park (only 2/3 or so), a higher percentage of his balls in play are line drives-- which he does well on like many power hitters-- his low contact rate means he sometimes make poor contact though. probably above average overall
s/c/z: swings a lot especially for someone who doesn't see many strikes. however, he is pretty good at distinguishing pulls from strikes despite the consensus on him. he makes terrible contact overall though
r/l: 1.064 vs .786 ops: say it with me "that means he's good against righties, not bad against lefties!" in fact, he's the best hitter against righties in baseball right now probably. his k/bb vs lhp is 3.7 vs 1.6 vs rhp. he has a lot of power against lefties however, but a lower babip. i don't have split data on pull% vs lhp/rhp but observationally i'm pretty sure that's the difference in his babip: .338 vs .309.
h/a: much higher babip on road. very similar hr numbers. 2.0 vs 3.2 k/bb.
p/o: pull hitter, especially on groundballs-- hits more homeruns the opposite way though
other: struggles mightily against power pitchers and groundball pitchers, dominate flyball pitchers (since he almost never pops out, and has 10.3% hr rate) and smashes finesse pitchers (11.8% hr rate); he also does much better on babip with runners on base as defenders can't shift against him-- especially with runners in scoring position

5) RF Jayson Werth (R): .268/.373/.522

proj: .270/.360/.460
bb: 12.5%
k: 29%
gb: 38%
iff: 8%
ifh: 8%
babip: high on groundballs due to high infield hit rate, high on line drives due to power, and hits pretty deep flyballs too; has been historically probably higher than it should be since he's faced more lhp than normal rhb do; overall still seems to be very above average
s/c/z: very selective and pretty good eye; somewhat low contact rate
r/l: .762 vs .919 ops; 2.4 vs 2.0 k/bb; hr rate of 6.7% vs 2.9%
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: spreads ball around well for power hitter, but still a pull hitter
other: stole 20 bases in 21 attempts last year

6) LF Raul Ibanez (L): .312/.371/.656

proj: .285/.350/.480
bb: 9%
k: 17%
gb: 42%
iff: 11%
ifh: 5%
babip: above average, probably because he spreads the ball around pretty well for a power hitter; much better babip with men on-- probably hooks ball in hole well or maybe he was shifted against more so beforehand
s/c/z: definitely a good eye though it's getting worse, slightly above average contact
r/l: .850 vs .733; 1.5 vs 2.8 k/bb
h/a: better k/bb (1.6 vs 1.9) but worse power probably park factors, and probably likely to be better at home
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: none

7) 3B Pedro Feliz (R): .292/.339/.407

proj: .250/.300/.420
bb: 6%
k: 15.5%
gb: 44%
iff: 15%
ifh: 5%
babip: very low-- pops up a lot, hits groundballs predictably to left side and is slow so they can play shaded over and deep; not all that much power so not terrific on line drives either, makes a lot of weak contact as he isn't good at making contact so he chops a lot of balls
s/c/z: high swing rate and not terribly good at distinguishing balls from strikes. swung significantly less in 2008, but it was as much of a decrease in balls as strikes, makes average contact
r/l: 3.3 vs 2.3 k/bb; .708 vs .755 ops, more babip and a little more power agaisnt lefties
h/a: much higher k rate on road, similar bb rate; more power on road, higher babip at home. likely not much difference (.725 vs .716 overall ops)
p/o: definite pull hitter
other: defensive numbers dipped last year, had offseason surgery for back, perhaps these are related

8) C Carlos Ruiz (R): .239/.340/.374

proj: .255/.335/.390
bb: 10%
k: 14%
gb: 50% (but rose in 2008 to 54% from 46%)
iff: 9.5%
ifh: 4%
babip: was extraordinarily low in 2008, but that seems to be rather flukey. his high groundball rate and solid contact rate and pitch selection indicate he should be a good babip guy, but he does very poorly on groundball as he chops the ball a lots/c/z: very good eye and excellent contact skill, extremely patient
r/l: bizarre reverse split despite 0.5 k/bb vs lhp and 1.2 vs rhp; impossibly low .204 babip against lhp, probably flukey and probably much better vs lhp in reality
h/a: similar k/bb, worse babip but higher power at home (park factors)
p/o: slight pull hitter
other: better against power pitchers, currently on DL with strained rib cage, probably longer than 15 days as originally thought

BENCH:

C Chris Coste (R): .245/.342/.382

proj: .265/.315/.405
bb: 5.5%
k: 17.5%
gb: 40%
iff: 10%
ifh: 6%
babip: slightly below average, seemingly due to poor eye and swinging and hitting bad pitches
s/c/z: high swing rate, pretty poor eye, average contact
r/l: .747 vs .855; same k/bb rate, much better babip against lhp, similar power but slightly more vs lhp
h/a: .886 vs .679; 5.4% vs 1.5% hr rate
p/o: pull hitter
other: struggles with power pitchers somewhat

IF/OF Eric Bruntlett (R): .139/.207/.208

proj: .240/.325/.335
bb: 10%
k: 18%
gb: 41%
iff: 14%
ifh: 5%
babip: high popup rate leads to low babip, but not that low; also doesn't do all that well on line drives due to lack of power
s/c/z: somewhat above average eye and doesn't swing much; makes very good contact, sees a lot of strikes
r/l: .592 vs .764 ops; 2.5 vs 1.2 k/bb; 5.7% vs 8.8% xbh/ab-- he's actually average if not above average against lhp; he just is terrible against rhb. he should be used as a

counterswitch to loogy use against lefty pinch hitters
h/a: more power at home and more walks at home; similar strikeout rate and babip
p/o: opposite field hitter
other: none

IF Greg Dobbs (L): .274/.319/.472

proj: .285/.335/.445
bb: 7%
k: 17%
gb: 36%
iff: 13.5%
ifh: 3%
babip: has been high but probably should not be projected as high-- success derives from impossibly high line drive babip which doesn't typically happen for non-extreme power hitters. given his popup rate, he probably isn't a .320 babip guy and there isn't a .285 hitter
s/c/z: poor eye but very high swing rate; average contact rate
r/l: .761 vs .579 ops despite impossible .481 babip against lhp. in reality, he strikes out in 48% of at-bats against lhp. he should never see them. absolutely no power against lefties also.
h/a: virtually no split at all
p/o: pull hitter
other: much better against finesse pitchers

OF Matt Stairs (L): .271/.427/.458

proj: .255/.340/.440
bb: 11%
k: 22%
gb: 42%
iff: 11.5%
ifh: 5%
babip: average all around
s/c/z: very good eye and slightly below average contact
r/l: .862 vs .748; much more power against rhp; 1.4 vs 2.1 k/bb
h/a: not much of a split at all
p/o: slight pull hitter but not much for a power hitter
other: use stairs in case of emergency

C Paul Bako (L): .200/.273/.250

proj: .220/.290/.295
bb: 9%
k: 30%
gb: 53%
iff: 7%
ifh: 6%
babip: projcted around .285
s/c/z: average eye, average patience, below average contact
r/l: .637 vs .522 ops; 2.2 vs 6.1 k/bb
h/a: .621 vs .621 ops; 2.5 vs 2.6 k/bb
p/o: very slight pull hitter, but spreads ball around pretty well
other: none

LF John Mayberry (R): .200/.250/.511

proj: .235/.290/.415
bb: 6.5%
k: 27%
iff: around 15-20% in minors
ifh: ?
babip: hits ball hard but pops up a lot; probably a bit average but tough to know; projected below average
s/c/z: not enough info
r/l: batter against lefties, particularly at making contact, in minors
h/a: not enough info
p/o: not enough info
other: none

ROTATION

FRIDAY STARTER: Joe Blanton (R): 4.69 ERA, 3.0 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 1.7 HR/9, 4.78 FIP, 40% GB

proj avg: 4.25 ERA, 2.5 BB/9, 5.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 56% fb, 16% ch, 15% sl, 12% cb
r/l: 2.3 vs 1.8 k/bb; .750 vs .719 ops
h/a: 2.2 vs 2.0 k/bb; .698 vs .776 ops; much worse babip away (.313 vs .282), more power surrendered on road
other: extraordinarily good against leadoff hitters, especially the first hitter of games

Blanton vs Pirates:

Hinske: 3/17, 2 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K
Monroe: 10/14, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB (IBB), 1 K
Vazquez: 2/8, 1 2B, 0 BB, 1 K
Moss: 1/6, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/3, 0 BB, 0 K

SATURDAY STARTER: Cole Hamels (L): 4.70 ERA, 1.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 3.65 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 3.45 ERA, 2.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 40%
pitches: 55% fb, 32% ch, 14% cb
r/l: .680 vs .748, but same 3.6 k/bb both ways; slightly more power vs lhb-- this is probably selection bias as managers withhold all but the best lefties against him (explaining 20% of hitters faced are lefties only)
h/a: 3.85 vs 3.4 k/bb; .676 vs .709 ops-- less of a difference due to higher HR rate at home
other: much higher k-rate at night: 25% vs 20%, which is statistically significant. ERA difference (4.71 vs 3.01 exaggerated by babip difference), as HR rate and XBH rate very similar. most likely he strikes out more at night.

Hamels vs Pirates:

Adam LaRoche: 2/3, 2 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K

SUNDAY STARTER: J.A. Happ (L): 3.04 ERA, 3.4 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.65 FIP, 35% GB

proj avg: 4.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 29% in majors thus far; 42% in AAA in 2008
pitches: 64% fb, 18% ch, 14% sl, 2% ct, 2% cb
r/l: 1.7 vs 3.0 k/bb in majors thus far; 2.7 vs 3.5 k/bb in AAA in 2008
h/a: not enough info

Happ: has not faced any Pirates

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Rodrigo Lopez (R): in AAA, he has a 3.91 ERA, 1.6 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.10 FIP, 48% GB; in MLB: 3.18 ERa, 1.6 BB/9, 6.4 K/9, 0 HR/9, 2.17 FIP, 44% GB

proj avg: 5.00 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 6.1 K/9, 1.4 HR/9
gb: 43%
pitches: 50% fb, 16% sl, 20% ch, 12% ct, 3% cb
r/l: .779 vs .786 ops; 2.5 vs 1.8 k/bb (faces a whole lot of lefties, more than 50%, so chances are that he is actually better against righties but every marginal lefty gets to face him and only elite righties)
h/a: .773 vs .793 ops; 2.4 vs 1.9 k/bb

NOT STARTING THIS SERIES: Jamie Moyer (L): 5.99 ERA, 2.4 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.83 FIP, 41% GB

proj avg: 4.80 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 39%
pitches: 41% fb, 30% ct, 24% ch, 6% cb
r/l: virtually no split but that seems to be selection as he sees 24% lefties only compared with 32% league average for lhp
h/a: 2.3 vs 1.9 k/bb; not much difference on contact; slightly better babip at home but not more so than the average starter gets

Moyer vs Pirates:

Hinske: 10/34, 2 2B, 2 HR, 1 BB, 4 K
Monroe: 2/13, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K, 1 SF
Adam LaRoche: 2/8, 2 2B, 1 BB, 1 K
Sanchez: 4/9, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K
Wilson: 1/6, 2 BB, 2 K
Vazquez: 2/5, 0 BB, 2 K
Moss: 1/2, 1 2B, 1 BB, 0 K
Maholm: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K

BULLPEN

CL Brad Lidge (R): 6.89 ERA, 5.5 BB/9, 10.1 K/9, 2.0 HR/9, 5.64 FIP, 39% GB

proj avg: 3.50 ERA, 4.1 BB?9, 11.0 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 41% (though this went up to 46% with increased slider use in 2008)
pitches: 56% sl, 43% fb, 0.4% ch in 2008 (historically 54% fb, 42% sl)
r/l: 3.6 vs 2.8 k/bb; .601 vs .686 ops (tough to tell if that tendency became more or less extreme in 2008 due to limited sample size)
h/a: 3.6 vs 2.9 k/bb; .666 vs .614 ops though due to higher babip away
other: HR/Flyball plummeted in 2008-- probably unsustainably low and his ERA should rise; still rumors of him tipping pitches explain the HR/Flyball spike in 2006 & 2007

Lidge vs Pirates:

Wilson: 4/15, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K, 1 Sac
Sanchez: 1/8, 2 BB, 5 K
Adam LaRoche: 3/4, 0 BB, 1 K
HInske: 1/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Monroe: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Ryan Madson (R): 3.09 ERA, 3.3 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.39 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 3.80 ERA, 2.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 48%
pitches: 58% fb, 24% ch, 15% ct, 4% cb
r/l: 3.65 vs 1.8 k/bb; .714 vs .786 ops
h/a: no major split at all

Madson vs Pirates:

Adam LaRoche: 3/7, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 2/5, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/4, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 1/2, 1 BB, 1 K

Chad Durbin (R): 4.09 ERA, 5.3 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.12 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.10 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 1.0 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 47% fb, 38% sl, 8% ch, 7% cb, 1% ct
r/l: virtually no split
h/a: somewhat of a reverse split but probably just noise

Durbin vs Pirates:

Hinske: 0/10, 0 BB, 2 K
Wilson: 2/4, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Monroe: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Moss: 2/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Adam LaRoche: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Chan Ho Park (R): 5.49 ERA, 4.0 BB/9, 7.6 K/9, 0.8 HR/9, 3.98 FIP, 42% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 3.5 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.2 HR/9
gb: 45%
pitches: 51% FB, 29% SL, 12% cb, 5% ch, 4% ct
r/l: .666 vs .820 ops; 2.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .280 vs .301 babip; 2.6% vs 3.6% HR rate-- much better against righties
h/a: 2.0 vs 1.7 k/bb; .708 vs .780 ops

Park vs Pirates:

Wilson: 2/12, 1 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
Adam LaRoche: 3/12, 0 BB, 3 K
Sanchez: 0/6, 1 BB, 1 K
Monroe: 1/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Vazquez: 0/3, 0 BB, 2 K
Hinske: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Morgan: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K

J.C. Romero (L): 2.92 ERA, 8.8 BB/9, 6.6 K/9, 0.7 HR/9, 6.05 FIP, 54% GB

proj avg: 4.00 ERA, 5.5 BB?9, 7.5 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
gb: 55%
pitches: 58% fb, 25% sl, 17% ch, 0.1% cb
r/l: 1.2 vs 2.2 k/bb; .814 vs. 591 ops
h/a: 1.6 vs 1.3 k/bb; .697 vs .768 ops

Romero vs Pirates:

Hinske: 1/7, 0 BB, 2 K
Monroe: 3/5, 2 2B, 0 BB, 2 K
Moss: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Adam LaRoche: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

Tyler Walker (R): 1.80 ERA, 0.9 BB/9, 4.5 K/9, 1.8 HR/9, 4.95 FIP, 38% GB

proj avg: 4.30 ERA, 3.7 BB/9, 7.4 K/9, 1.1 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 27% sl, 10% ch, 3% cb
r/l: .721 vs .838 ops; 2.1 vs 1.9 k/bb
h/a: .838 vs .712 ops; 1.8 vs 2.2 k/bb

Walker vs Pirates:

Ad. LaRoche: 2/4, 1 HR, 0 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
An. LaRoche: 1/2, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Sanchez: 0/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Young: 0/2, 0 BB, 1 K
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 1 K

Scott Eyre (L): 2.40 ERA, 5.4 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 5.18 FIP, 31% GB

proj avg: 4.20 ERA, 4.1 BB/9, 8.8 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
gb: 41%
pitches: 59% fb, 35% sl, 6% ch, 0.2% cb
r/l: 1.5 vs 1.9 k/bb; .815 vs .720 ops
h/a: not much of a split

Eyre vs Pirates:

LaRoche: 0/10, 1 BB, 4 K
Sanchez: 0/5, 2 BB, 1 K
Wilson: 0/5, 1 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 Sac
Morgan: 0/3, 0 BB, 1 K
Hinske: 1/1, 1 2B, 0 BB, 0 K
Maholm: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K

DISABLED LIST: Clay Condrey (R): 2.17 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.52 FIP, 52% GB

proj avg: 4.50 ERA, 2.8 BB/9, 4.9 K/9, 0.8 HR/9
gb: 50%
pitches: 59% fb, 17% ct, 15% sl, 9% ch
r/l: 2.1 vs 1.3 k/bb; .761 vs .842 ops
h/a: .703 vs .898 ops; 2.2 vs 1.3 k/bb

Condrey vs Pirates:

Sanchez: 1/4, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HBP
Wilson: 2/2, 0 BB, 0 K
Adam LaROche: 1 BB
Andy LaRoche: 1 BB
Moss: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K
Vazquez: 0/1, 0 BB, 0 K