SB Nation - Starlin Castro

Down on the Farm: Snippets from Baseball America's Top 10 Lists

raygu — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:00:17 -0000

Like I mentioned yesterday, I decided to subscribe to Baseball America for the next 3 months so I can stay on top of their Top 10 lists, while I wait for Santa to deliver their 2010 Baseball Prospect Handbook. They completed their Top 10s for the National League teams last week, so today I bring you a few snippets from their writeups.

We may see these guys called up as early as spring training and as late as August/September:

Jenrry Mejia, SP, NYM

Mejia's fastball ranges from 90-96 mph, and it hit 98 on a handful of occasions in 2009. He's able to maintain his velocity late into games, and his fastball has so much cutting and sinking action that it befuddles hitters. He induces a lot of groundouts and broken bats. Mejia's changeup is a plus pitch at times, resembling a splitter with its 81-84 velocity and drop. Though he's not particularly tall by righthander standards, he has a good angle to the plate and throws downhill. In 210 pro innings, he has allowed just six homers. Mejia does a good job of pitching inside, and he generally stays composed with traffic on the bases.

Ike Davis, 1B, NYM

The Mets entered the offseason with Daniel Murphy set to open 2010 as their first baseman and Davis headed to Triple-A Buffalo. He should make his big league debut later in the year and eventually supplant Murphy as New York's starter.

More after the jump:

Starlin Castro, SS, CHC

Castro's performance has drawn him comparisons with the likes of Tony Fernandez, Edgar Renteria, Miguel Tejada—and even Derek Jeter. Castro covers the plate well for a young hitter and does a nice job of staying inside the ball and using the entire field. He consistently puts the barrel of the bat on the ball and has a knack for making adjustments. Though he had just 32 extra-base hits in 2009, Castro has the power potential to double that total once he matures physically. He has strong hands and wrists, and he's starting to pull and drive more pitches. He has the plus speed to make things happen on the bases.

Derek Norris, C, WAS

Norris projects as an above-average offensive player in the big leagues, and if he can become an average defender, he can be an all-star. He should be fully healthy for spring training and will start 2010 at high Class A Potomac.

Kyle Drabek, SP. PHI

Drabek could be a power reliever in the Tom Gordon mode, particularly if the Phillies need him in 2010. His aptitude and athleticism make it more likely that he'll improve that pitch and fulfill his profile as a No. 2 or 3 starter. He'll open the season in Triple-A.

Down on the Farm: Baseball America's 2009 Top 10 AFL Prospects

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

6 months ago: FILE - In this April 3, 2009, file photo, San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg throws during a game in San Diego. The Washington Nationals selected Strasburg with the No. 1 overall pick in the baseball draft on Tuesday, June 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi, File)

Browse more photos »

Baseball America posted their Top 10 Arizona Fall League prospects yesterday and with a little luck I was able to find the list over at Mets Minor League Blog.

Here are their Top 10 AFL prospects for 2009:

1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Nationals
2. Buster Posey, C, Giants
3. Dominic Brown, RF, Phillies
4. Dustin Ackley, OF, Mariners
5. Josh Bell, 3B, Orioles
6. Jenrry Mejia, RHP, Mets
7. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds
9. Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
10. Ike Davis, 1B, Mets

With the hype that Starlin Castro received I am surprised there are 8 other guys ahead of him on this list. Mets fans have to be happy about seeing two of their prospects listed in the top 10. Maybe their farm system is turning around. Was it due to Tony Bernazard challenging them to a fight?

This list would be different had the Braves and Marlins not pulled Jason Heyward and Michael Stanton after the first week of games due to minor injuries.

I wonder if Castro would have made the Top 10 had they played the entire AFL season?

Down on the Farm: Snippets from MLB.com

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 18:00:12 -0000

I've been waiting for the MLB.com beat writers to start writing their normal offseason Inbox articles, and today a bunch of them responded. The Mets beat writer Marty Noble and and the Marlin's Joe Frisaro were the only ones writing the Inbox articles until today.

Here are a few snippets regarding some of the top prospects:

Mark Bowman, Braves:

Can the Braves move Chipper Jones to first base and maybe look for a third baseman?
-- Edward G., Santiago, Dominican Republic

Chipper has said numerous times that he'd accept a move to the other corner if the Braves had a better third-base option. While they don't currently have a better option in their system, they could be tempted to make this move if they were to grab Chone Figgins, Adrian Beltre or Pedro Feliz off the free-agent market.

But with the strong possibility that Freddie Freeman could be ready to assume his role as the everyday first baseman by the start of the 2011 season, where would you then play Chipper during the final two years of his contract?

Ken Gurnick, Dodgers:

It sounds like the Dodgers already have no chance at trading for Roy Halladay. If their farm system is so good, why can't they swing deals for big-name players the way the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox do?
-- Seth F., Vero Beach, Fla.

Actually, they made one of the biggest trades for a big-name player in recent years in 2008 -- for Manny Ramirez. In the case of Halladay, if the Blue Jays insist on a Major League starting pitcher in return -- and why wouldn't they? -- then the Dodgers are not a fit. That's the Dodgers' need, not a surplus. General manager Ned Colletti has said he doesn't believe he can improve his starting rotation by trading away a pitcher out of that starting rotation. One thing you haven't heard in recent years is that the Dodgers have blocked young talent, because their young talent has become the nucleus of the team. So there isn't a surplus of Major League-ready players to trade for marquee players. And one who would qualify in that category, Blake DeWitt, is likely to get a shot to be the starting second baseman next year.

More after the jump:

Marty Noble, Mets:

Daniel Murphy is not the answer at first base. The club should re-sign Carlos Delgado for one year, allowing him to demonstrate whether he has anything left. I believe he is an all around better player than Murphy, who seems like he cares, but I'm convinced he at best is a bench player. They should wait for Ike Davis to develop.
-- John A., Whitestone, N.Y.

I'm not sure about Delgado. The Mets have questions about his ability to move at first base. Off what I saw in 2007 and the first half of 2008, I have questions about his willingness to move. His bat seemed potent in the games he played before his hip surgery developed in May.

I suspect you and the club aren't on the same page about Murphy. And I don't see how Murphy and Delgado fit in the same roster, particularly if a right-handed-hitting first baseman is needed. But you and the club seem to agree on Davis. And I have the same sense. Give him time to develop.

Carrie Muskat, Cubs:

Have you heard if Ryan Theriot has been working on his footwork at second base? I believe Jeff Baker has more value off the bench with Aramis Ramirez having his shoulder issues and such.
-- Aaron L., Chicago

Theriot has been told to dust off his second baseman's glove because he could be switching to second base if the Cubs decide top prospect Starlin Castro is ready for the big leagues. Theriot has played second before in the Major Leagues, last doing so in 2007 (37 games). I agree about Baker being a valuable player to have on the bench.

Adam McCalvy, Brewers:

How does the addition of Carlos Gomez affect Lorenzo Cain's future with the organization?
-- Michael Holyoke, Thiensville, Wis.

It slows Cain's progress to the Majors, though injuries in 2009 probably took care of that already. Cain missed time with a left knee injury and then struggled to trust the knee when he returned, according to Nichols. Cain will begin the year at Double-A Huntsville or perhaps Triple-A Nashville while Gomez gets a chance to dig a foothold in Milwaukee. Remember, Gomez is raw himself (at least offensively) so there remains plenty of opportunity for guys like Cain or Logan Schafer or Caleb Gindl.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Why can't we look at moving Ryan Doumit back to right field to fill our offensive needs rather than trade him? -- Bob, Fombell, Pa.

That would seem to be a viable possibility, but not one the Pirates have shown interest in really exploring further for whatever reason. When I asked Huntington about the possibility of Doumit playing right field, he said the organization sees it as a possibility right now only on days when Doumit is off behind the plate. As a result, don't be surprised if you do see Doumit make a handful of spot starts in right when he isn't catching, in order to keep his bat in the lineup. You'll remember Doumit did just that one time last September.

Keep in mind, too, that the Pirates' right fielder is likely to soon be Jose Tabata. So, if the Pirates do pursue a corner outfielder this winter, it would likely be for a short-term fit. It might not be the best option to move Doumit to right knowing that he wouldn't be able to stay there but for a few months.

Jenifer Langosch, Pirates:

Where does Milledge fit into next year's lineup? I think he played a pretty strong second half this past year, and showed some improvements in his game. Is he an outfielder of the future, along with Andrew McCutchen?
-- Jake C., Kent, Ohio

If the Pirates' starting lineup is made up of players currently within the organization (meaning no additional offseason adds), I could very well see Milledge slotting into the fifth spot in the batting order, behind Doumit. Milledge finished the season by hitting .311 in his final 44 games, and there's no reason to believe he can't sustain offensive numbers like that for a longer period of time. Also, both Milledge and the Pirates' staff expect him to show more power in 2010 now that his right hand has returned to full strength after an early-season injury.

I do think you can mention Milledge as one of the club's potential outfielders of the future. He was not brought in as a placeholder. In fact, at this time next year, I'd expect we'll be talking about a pretty intriguing outfield trio of Milledge, McCutchen and Tabata.

Lunchtime Prowl: Dombrowski In-Depth, Granderson Rumors, Centerfield Options, and Magglio's Homer

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:00:21 -0000

This week at Mack Avenue Tigers, Kurt Mensching takes an in-depth look at Dave Dombrowski's work as general manager since he's been in charge of the Tigers. How does he approach his work? How has he remade the franchise in his eight years with Detroit? How has he developed the minor league system? What is his approach to making trades?

Dombrowski's taken quite a bit of criticism so far this offseason, so this "big picture" look at his tenure as Tigers' GM comes at the right time. And maybe it clues us in as to what can be expected in the weeks to come.

The Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers had three Tigers-related notes in his Sunday "Whispers" column: 1) The Brewers were interested in Curtis Granderson before they dealt J.J. Hardy to the Twins, but Detroit wanted more than a shortstop in return. 2) The Cubs want Granderson, but not at the cost of Carlos Marmol or Starlin Castro. 3) The Tigers are one of several teams scouting Jake Fox (11 homers in 241 plate appearances this year).

If Granderson was traded, who takes over in centerfield? Jason Beck addresses this question, and eliminates Wilkin Ramirez from consideration. Mostly because he's played all of two games in center during his minor league career.

Beck also says signing a veteran centerfielder, such as Mike Cameron, would be another possibility. (I wish Detroit would sign Cameron to play left field.) But Cameron made $10 million this season. Even if he took a pay cut, he'd probably cost more than Granderson.

One more note from Beck: The Tigers received $590,731.18 in postseason shares for their second-place finish in the AL Central. (The Twins got $1,772,193.48 for winning the division.)

Big League Stew ranked the 10 best "big moment" home runs of the past decade. Magglio Ordonez's 2006 ALCS-winning homer is on the list. But would you have ranked it higher or lower, or did 'Duk get it just about right?

Top prospect rankings are en vogue this time of year. Lynn Henning takes a crack with his top 20 Tigers prospects, and it's interesting to compare his list to others. Casper Wells, for example, rates higher with Henning than Kevin Goldstein.

If eight teams are interested in reliever Takashi Saito, as NPB Tracker says (I'm going to trust their translation), could the Tigers be one of them? This year with the Red Sox, Saito struck out 52 and walked 25 in 55.2 innings. He posted a 3-3 record and 2.43 ERA, all for $1.5 million.

(via MLB Trade Rumors)

This isn't Tigers-related, but Big Al's our buddy, so we link to him when we can. His explanation of the most annoying types of Lions fans is spot-on. And unfortunately, it hits a little close to home with me. I often talk about how the Lions have broken me as a fan and I intend to switch my allegiances elsewhere.

In my defense, however, as much as I talk about becoming a Seahawks or Jets fan, to name a couple of dalliances, I never actually follow through. I wish I could quit the Lions.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:24 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Pretty much everyone except Doug Melvin seems to think the Brewers should offer arbitration to Felipe Lopez.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while not getting what you hoped for.

The Brewers have until 11 pm tonight to finalize their plan to offer or decline arbitration to five free agents, and while Tom H. seems to think the Brewers will extend an offer to Felipe Lopez, Adam McCalvy is reporting the team is "leaning against" making the offer to any of the five (FanShot).

All of this is another episode in the "Doug Melvin Moments" series I think most of us are getting increasingly sick of. Doug, we get it. Times are tough for the ever-so-downtrodden small-to-mid market GM with the job many of us would kill for. If the system is really so unbearable, you're welcome to quit and be replaced by someone who will spend more time working with the tools they have and less time bitching about the ones they don't.

Assuming Melvin does eventually get off his soapbox and get back to the task of improving the team, Wisconsin Sports Tap has a guide for prospective new Brewers that can help them avoid becoming the next Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall or Johnny Estrada.

With that said, it might be a while before we have news on Mark Mulder. Roguejim uncovered a story yesterday that sheds some light on Mulder's rehab and situation, and raises the possibility that Mulder will decide not to come back if he's unable to perform at a level he's accustomed to.

We're also probably just about done discussing Kevin Millwood. Rangers beat reporter T.R. Sullivan had this to say about the rumors:

The Rangers wouldn't mind adding pitching but they don't want to subtract it so they are not trying to move Kevin Millwood. Word is the Brewers were interested but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and Doug Melvin haven't spoke in weeks, That might change at the Winter Meetings but the Rangers still need Millwood's arm far more than they need to move his salary.

Adam McCalvy opened up the mailbag yesterday and answered reader questions on the possibility of a Prince Fielder extension, Dominican prospect Santo Aybar, Lorenzo Cain and Caleb Gindl.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Lisa Winston of MiLB.com has a review of the season for the Brewer minor leagues, and a look at the attempt to build pitching depth in the system.
Project Prospect has Jonathan Lucroy ranked ninth on their list of baseball's top 15 catching prospects. Angel Salome was not ranked.
The Baseball Chronicle has Alcides Escobar as a backup infielder on their 2010 All Prospect Team. Escobar is on the bench behind Rays prospect Reid Brignac and Cubs SS prospect Starlin Castro, who is playing out of position at second base.
Rattler Radio has photos of the construction at Time Warner Field, where they're hard at work adding the new beach seats, boardwalk and bullpens.

Up for some arbitrary list-making today? Miller Park Drunk has a list of the top ten Brewers of the decade. It's worth a click for the picture, if nothing else.

John Axford might have an outside shot at winning a spot in the Brewer bullpen next spring, depending on how rest of the offseason goes. In the meantime, he spent yesterday talking to college students about life in the big leagues and the importance of education.

On the transaction log:

Cardinals: Re-signed catcher Jason LaRue and signed infielder Ruben Gotay to a minor league deal.
Mets: Signed catcher Chris Coste, and re-signed infielder Alex Cora to a one year deal worth $2 million.
Pirates: Signed reliever Wil Ledezma to a minor league deal and released catcher Robinzon Diaz.

Wondering what it might take for the Brewers to acquire Edwin Jackson? Here's a hint: The Mariners reportedly turned down an offer from the Tigers would have sent Jackson to Seattle for pitchers Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley. So apparently the price is pretty high.

If the Brewers are serious about making an effort to sign Justin Duchscherer, they may have competition within the division: MLB Trade Rumors says the Pirates are one of the interested teams.

The Brewers probably won't be players in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, but odds are the competition will heat up soon. Halladay has reportedly told the Blue Jays he won't accept any deal after reporting to spring training in February.

With the Winter Meetings coming up, we have more Rule 5 Draft notes: Baseball Time In Arlington has a look at the top ten unprotected pitchers, including former Brewer farmhand Will Inman.

Yesterday I mentioned the voting for the third baseman on the Timber Rattlers' 15th Anniversary team, and left a comment on Rattler Radio asking about the fate of top contender Bo Robinson, who had a few promising seasons in the Mariner organization before dropping off the map in 2002. Within 24 hours the answer was the subject of this week's Mehring Monday. Impressive turnaround time, to be sure.

I'm a few days behind on this one, but I recently discovered Cooperstown Chatter, the MLBlog run by the Baseball Hall of Fame, and this post on Rollie Fingers' 1981 MVP season. It's almost as impressive as Matt Stairs having a street named after him in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

By the way, if you've ever been to the Baseball Hall of Fame, or you haven't but would like to go someday, you can become a fan on Facebook. As an added bonus, Facebook fans get to help in the voting for this year's broadcaster induction.

On this day in 1967, Seattle was awarded an American League expansion franchise. I guess that makes today the Brewers' date of conception?

Happy birthday today to Tom Filer, who posted a 4.32 ERA in 39 appearances as a Brewer during the '88-'90 seasons and turns 53, and to Julio Machado, who spent parts of the 1990 and 1991 seasons as a Brewer before being arrested for murder in Venezuela. He turns 44.

Oh, and I haven't actually watched it yet (no sound on the computer where I write the Mug), but this video has Rammstein and Cookie Monster, so what could possibly go wrong?

Drink up.

Baseball America's Top 10 Prospect Lists for 2010

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 18:00:18 -0000

We continue the Baseball America Top 10 Prospect lists for 2010 with the NL Central:

Cubs

1.	Starlin Castro, ss
2.	Brett Jackson, of
3.	Josh Vitters, 3b
4.	Andrew Cashner, rhp
5.	Jay Jackson, rhp
6.	Hak-Ju Lee, ss
7.	Logan Watkins, 2b
8.	Chris Carpenter, rhp
9.	Ryan Flaherty, ss/2b/3b
10.	D.J. LeMahieu, ss/2b

More after the jump:

Reds

1.	Todd Frazier, of/2b/3b
2.	Yonder Alonso, 1b
3.	Mike Leake, rhp
4.	Chris Heisey, of
5.	Juan Francisco, 3b
6.	Yorman Rodriguez, of
7.	Travis Wood, lhp
8.	Matt Maloney, lhp
9.	Brad Boxberger, rhp
10.	Zack Cozart, ss

Brewers

1. Alcides Escobar, ss

2. Brett Lawrie, 2b

3. Mat Gamel, 3b

4. Eric Arnett, rhp

5. Jonathan Lucroy, c

6. Kentrail Davis, of

7. Zach Braddock, lhp

8. Lorenzo Cain, of

9. Jake Odorizzi, rhp

10. Kyle Heckathorn, rhp

Astros

1. Jason Castro, c

2. Jiovanni Mier, ss

3. Jordan Lyles, rhp

4. Sammy Gervacio, rhp

5. Chia-Jen Lo, rhp

6. Ross Seaton, rhp

7. Tanner Bushue, rhp

8. Jay Austin, of

9. Jon Gaston, of

10. T.J. Steele, of

Pirates

1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b

2. Jose Tabata, of

3. Tony Sanchez, c

4. Brad Lincoln, rhp

5. Chase D'Arnaud, ss/2b

6. Starling Marte, of

7. Tim Alderson, rhp

8. Zack Von Rosenberg, rhp

9. Rudy Owens, lhp

10. Gorkys Hernandez, of

Cardinals

1. Shelby Miller	rhp
2. Jaime Garcia	lhp
3. Lance Lynn	rhp
4. Daryl Jones	of
5. David Freese	3b/1b
6. Eduardo Sanchez	rhp
7. Allen Craig	of/1b/3b
8. Blake Hawksworth	rhp
9. Daniel Descalso	2b
10. Robert Stock	c

Tuesday's Quick and Late Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 21:31:13 -0000

Some things to read while the Muppets make everything better (h/t Daily Drink).

In the interest of getting it done as early as possible, today's Mug is bullet pointed again:

Prince Fielder finished fourth in the NL MVP balloting, appearing on all 32 ballots and getting five second place votes (FanShot). Ryan Braun also appeared on 16 ballots en route to an 11th place finish, but was ranked no higher than fifth on any of them. The link above has the full voting. Hopefully we'll soon find out which three voters had Prince Fielder tenth on their ballot, and who cast votes for Jeremy Affeldt, Brad Hawpe and Shane Victorino.
John Halama is a Brewer, having signed a minor league deal yesterday. Halama will turn 38 before opening day, hasn't pitched in the majors since 2006, and would be pitching for his eighth major league team if he makes the Brewers. With that said, Adam McCalvy blamed his 2006 departure from the Orioles on family issues, so perhaps he's ready to bounce back.
Speaking of pitchers who could bounce back, Chris Capuano will be back for another season on a minor league deal. Capuano made a few short appearances down the stretch for the Brewer rookie league affiliates, and if his rehab continues to progress he could be ready to pitch in the major leagues by spring training.
Project Prospect ranked baseball's top 15 shortstop prospects, and Alcides Escobar is #1, ahead of recent AFL standout Starlin Castro. TheJay had a post earlier today on players who do not have rookie eligibility next season, but Escobar is not one of them...and he's probably an early candidate for Rookie of the Year.
Al has a look at ten free agents that could become Brewers. Aside from the top two, there's no one else on that list I've even heard mentioned in connection with the Crew.
As for transactions, the Braves signed former Royals minor league pitcher Juan Abreu to a major league deal.
For whatever it's worth, MLB Daily Dish thinks Ben Sheets will end up as a Mariner this offseason.
It's no secret that the Braves would like to deal Derek Lowe this offseason. The Ghost of Moonlight Graham has a look at the market for his services, and thinks the Brewers made the right decision by not trading Corey Hart for him.
If you'd like something to overanalyze today, here's a candidate: Recent Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman has decided to switch agents, dumping the agency that helped get him out of Cuba, and Jon Heyman says at least one exec sees the move as a potential character issue. Obviously, the agency lost some money on the deal, but I'm having a hard time getting worked up over it.
Something else to think about this afternoon, in Sporcle form: How many of Kenny Lofton's teams can you name?
Friend of the site Stephen C. Smith of SpaceCoastBaseball.com has a post-mortem on the Florida Winter Baseball League, which lasted all of a few weeks, despite telling staff it had enough financial resources to last for multiple seasons (h/t Rattler Radio). Meanwhile, if you're one of the seven people who purchased tickets to a FWBL game and didn't get to use them, the Brevard County Manatees will allow you to use them next season.
On this day in 1969, Dave Bristol was hired to manage the Seattle Pilots. A few months later the team would move to Milwaukee and Bristol would become the first manager of the Milwaukee Brewers.
Happy birthday today to Cal Eldred, who turns 42, and Ben McDonald, who also turns 42.
On and it's probably a little late to help you today, but this cereal flow chart might make tomorrow morning a little easier. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans)

Drink up.

Part 1-Interview with Project Prospect's Adam Foster

raygu — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:29:13 -0000

Since joining the UBA NL-only roto league where I needed to increase my knowledge of all the prospects in MLB, I started checking out the various sites that cover them including Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America and John Sickel's Minor League Ball. Another site I used quite often is Project Prospect, run by Adam Foster. Adam was nice enough to answer some questions about his site, rankings system and prospect questions for Fake Team readers.

Today I have part 1 of the interview.

Fake Teams: You run a wonderful prospect site-Project Prospects, tell us how you got started with the site, and interested in scouting.

Adam Foster: I started Project Prospect during my senior year in college (2006). My roommates all went home that summer, so I had a lot of free time.

I was already pretty involved in researching prospects for my fantasy league. And I realized that there was very little MiLB coverage out there. So I started following the minors daily and gathering prospect information.

The next step was getting my internship with Baseball America that winter. I started to gain an understanding of scouting when I worked with BA staffers John Manuel, Matt Eddy, Aaron Fitt, Alan Matthews, Matt Meyers and Chris Kline. Those guys helped me learn a ton about the minors.

Fake Teams: Some sites do rankings based on what the player's potential ceiling is, while others base their rankings based on scouting. How does Project Prospect do their rankings? Is it a combined effort with the other writers on the site, and what are your rankings based on?

Adam Foster: We've evolved to put a lot of weight into a prospect's floor, which typically frustrates fantasy owners. Prospecting has been largely about ceiling over the past decade. We believe than an average big leaguer is very valuable, so we don't shy away from guys who don't have star potential.

I've had dozens of great writers make contributions to the site over our 3+ year history. They've all made an impact on how we rank prospects.

Our first few years, we largely ranked off of numbers. We weren't going out and seeing guys play regularly at that point, so we didn't have much else to work with. We've made a major effort to see guys play this year. I'd be surprised if any publication has been to more 2009 minor league games than Project Prospect - I've travelled thousands of miles to attend Minor League Spring Training, California League games, Pacific Coast League and the Arizona Fall League. We have contributors all over the country who pride themselves on going to games, too. Our goal is to become a community scouting department. Even if we aren't professionally trained scouts, we know a lot about the game and we're getting so many opinions that our information winds up being pretty good.

We've also benefitted from the fact that most prospect media members don't put much energy into quantitative analysis. For some reason, many of the big dogs still are attached to batting average, win-loss totals, ERA and countable stats.

We continue to hone our statistical approach, but we're trying to stay up-to-date with advanced applications of college and minor league baseball statistics. We've communicated with professional front offices about how they utilize numbers. And I think we're on the right track.

Fake Teams: Your site is up against some heavyweights in the prospect/scouting industry, how does your site differ from how the others do their rankings?

Adam Foster: We've put a lot of energy into peer review. On top of going back and figuring out what we could have done better, we also analyze the strengths and weaknesses of other publications. We're constantly making efforts to improve our work...we're hungry.

For example, many of the prospects who have been missed over the last 10 years are guys without high ceilings. That brings us back to the appreciation for guys with high floors. We tend to be higher on that type of player than most publications.

But again, I think our biggest strength our hunger. I know how other publications create their lists. And I know there's room for improvement across the board in media prospect coverage.

Fake Teams: I see you recently attended some Arizona Fall League games. What prospects impressed you the most? The least?

Adam Foster: Josh Bell really impressed me with his defense at third base. He could be above-average all around there. Jonathan Lucroy, Brandon Snyder, Jose Tabata, Starlin Castro and Mike Leake also impressed me.

Casey Kelly and Grant Desme looked lost at the plate more often than not. I also walked away with less confidence in Brandon Allen than I had a few months ago - pitchers were picking him apart. And I didn't realize that Casper Wells is too thick to be a center fielder and such a poor contact hitter.

Fake Teams: How much weight do you put into AFL performances, as it appears to be more of a hitter's league every year?

Adam Foster: Not only do the AFL parks favor hitters, but the pitching is well behind the hitting overall. Guys put up crazy power numbers. Fly balls float out of the park. And while the hitters do typically see 4-5 pitchers a game, I doubt the pitchers really have much info on the hitters they're facing.

I've primarily been looking at strikeouts and walks in the AFL. But yeah, a 75-125 PA/TBF sample can only take you so far. If you take one thing away from reading this transcript, it should be to be careful about giving up much value for Grant Desme right now.

Weekend Prowl: Watch Weinhardt Again, Eyeing the Mariners, No On Castro, and Grandy the TV Host

Ian Casselberry — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 15:30:36 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Is Curtis Granderson creating another distraction from baseball for himself with a proposed reality TV show?

Browse more photos »

If anyone missed Saturday's Arizona Fall League championship game (including two hitless innings and four strikeouts from Tigers prospect Robbie Weinhardt), you can catch a replay on MLB Network from 3 to 6 p.m. ET Monday.

Lynn Henning likes what he sees in the Seattle Mariners' organization, and has highlighted a few prospects that the Tigers could be pursuing in any deal for Edwin Jackson and/or Curtis Granderson. He wonders, however, if Dave Dombrowski might have to curb his typically aggressive approach toward making trades.

Phil Rogers reports that the Cubs aren't too keen on giving up shortstop prospect Starlin Castro in a deal for Granderson. But Rogers thinks the Cubs might still have the chips to make a trade happen, and is curious what sort of affect Rudy Jaramillo might have on Granderson's hitting.

At Tigers Tracks, John Parent responds to the news that Granderson is pitching a reality TV show called "Stadium Secrets," in which he would take viewers on "explorations of stadiums." Grandy's a natural for television and will probably thrive in this project. But should he be concentrating more on playing baseball, something his manager publicly expressed concern about this season?

Marc Hulet reviews the Tigers' last four draft classes at Fangraphs. Considering the team just added three of those 2006 draft picks to its 40-man roster, that group's beginning to look pretty good. The 2008 class is making a move, though.

The one name added to the 40-man roster that's prompted some head-scratching is shortstop Audy Ciriaco. Mack Avenue Tigers fills us in on Ciriaco's minor league career thus far, but asks if he's the sort of player Detroit should worry about losing in the Rule 5 draft.

Last year, the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo frequently wrote that he thought Gary Sheffield was due for a bounce-back year with the Tigers. So it shouldn't be a surprise that Cafardo's writing again about Sheff, and the work (martial arts, boxing, nutrition) he's putting in, hoping to catch on with another team next season.

Murray Chass writes about how Bobby Valentine botched his opportunity to get the Cleveland Indians' manager job. (It's the third item of the post; you'll have to scroll through Chass's near-gleeful thoughts on how a guy with an evaluation, not statistics background, is now the Toronto Blue Jays' GM.)

Why (And How) The Cubs Should Trade For Curtis Granderson

Al — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 17:39:01 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

In addition to a good bat, Curtis Granderson would give the Cubs plus defense in CF.

View full size photo »

I'm not sure I really have to convince anyone here of the premise of the headline of this article; numerous people have already posted here about how useful Curtis Granderson would be in the Cubs' outfield, and several traditional media articles in both Chicago and Detroit have discussed this possibility (and those are just three examples of dozens of such articles). Granderson himself is busy this winter pitching a reality TV series:

The Detroit Tigers player has agreed to host a TV and online series titled "Stadium Secrets" where he takes sports fans on an exploration of stadiums.

The concept is similar to Authentic’s "Cities of the Underworld" on History channel.

"Authentic will be providing an exclusive, VIP experience for fans everywhere – a behind-the-scenes journey that will be exciting for all of us. I am eager to begin working on this project and look forward to a successful partnership," Granderson said.

Sounds interesting. I'm hoping Granderson gets to explore Wrigley Field in detail starting next summer. In the meantime, after the jump I'm going to examine Granderson's numbers in detail, explain why he's a perfect fit for Chicago and the Cubs, and look at who the Cubs might have to give the Tigers in exchange.

We have to first start this discussion with a couple of assumptions. First, we assume that Milton Bradley has been, or will be, traded before any Granderson deal, thus opening up center field for the Cubs (with Kosuke Fukudome moving back to right field, a position he plays better; this would solidify Cubs defense in two positions). It is, of course, possible that Bradley could be part of a deal for Granderson, but I am going to operate here under the assumption that he's not, that Bradley will be dealt to some other team (the Rays?) and that any Granderson trade would be a separate transaction.

Second, I think you have to assume that Granderson has to be, at this stage of his career -- he will be 29 on March 16, not old, but getting toward the end of his "best" year capability -- platooned, at least to some extent. His career splits:

vs. RHP: .292/.367/.528, .894 OPS
vs. LHP: .210/.270/.344, .614 OPS

Last year it was even more extreme:

vs. RHP: .275/.358/.539, .897 OPS
vs. LHP: .183/.245/.239, .484 OPS

Against RHP, Granderson hits almost as well as Aramis Ramirez -- All-Star level. Against LHP... well, he's basically Aaron Miles. So you'd probably want to re-sign Reed Johnson to give Granderson a break against LHP. Johnson doesn't hit righthanders, but against LHP his career line is .313/.378/.463, an OPS of .841, nearly as good as Granderson vs. RHP. These two together would produce outstanding offensive numbers from the CF position and good defense. The Tigers started Granderson in 155 games in 2009 because, well, they really didn't have any other choice. The other eight (remember, the Tigers played 163 games in 2009) games were started by Josh Anderson (1), Clete Thomas (2) and Ryan Raburn (5), and of those guys, only Raburn can hit (he hits LHP pretty well -- the Tigers could have gotten more offense out of CF if they had played Raburn there a bit more often vs. LHP).

So a modified platoon of Granderson and Reed Johnson would be, in my opinion, the ticket to success for the Cubs outfield. I say "modified" because Johnson would also have to spell Fukudome in RF from time to time; on those days, Granderson would have to start in CF vs. LHP. Sam Fuld would stick with the team as the fifth outfielder, someone who could take over in the late innings for Alfonso Soriano. The Cubs' outfield would be very good defensively and close to outstanding offensively.

Granderson's contract, though it has three full years to run (and a 2013 option) is not onerous. Like many Jim Hendry contracts in recent years, it's backloaded. In 2010, Granderson is due to make a somewhat-reasonable $5.5 million; that increases to $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012, with a $2 million buyout in 2013 (all figures, as always, from the excellent Cot's Baseball Contracts), that would increase to $13 million (with some escalators to that based on performance) if the option is exercised. That would make the total financial commitment $25.25 million (presuming the buyout is done), spread over four years from 2010-2013. That's not unreasonable for a player of Granderson's ability.

Now -- how do you get him? The Tigers seem to be in partial-sell mode; that is, they'd like to shed some of their big-dollar contracts, but not get into full rebuilding mode. Thus, you'd need to get them at least a couple of players who could step in right now and contribute at the major league level. I can't find the link right now, but in a recent Baseball America online chat, a question was asked to BA's Jim Callis about this type of deal:

Q: Would Josh Vitters, Jake Fox, and Jay Jackson be enough for the Cubs to land Curtis Granderson if he really is available? Would you do that deal if you were the Cubs?

Jim Callis: I would think so. The Tigers have to dump salary, so I might try to hold onto Vitters and see if Detroit would take Ryan Flaherty, or hold onto Jackson and offer a lesser pitcher. But the Cubs are in win-now mode, and I think they'd bite.

I'd do this deal. Starlin Castro may be the flavor-of-the-month after his .376/.396/.491 performance in the Arizona Fall League, but I think he has higher upside than Vitters, who also hit well in the AFL (.353/.380/.455), and I would not trade Castro. It's entirely possible that Vitters will become a good major league player -- but you're getting a good major league player in return. Jake Fox is miscast in the National League; though he worked hard at playing 3B, C, LF and RF, his best position is DH. Throw in the fact that he played college ball at the University of Michigan, and he's a natural for Detroit. Jay Jackson has been up and down in the Cubs organization and while he has talent, I'm not quite sure what role the Cubs have in mind for him. He was exclusively a starter in 2009 after starting and relieving in 2008.

Callis thinks this would get a deal done and I'd do it -- but I suspect the Tigers might ask for Andrew Cashner instead of Jackson. That's a high price to pay -- Cashner has a shot at the major league bullpen for the Cubs in 2010 and he could even be viewed as a closer candidate by the Tigers, who are likely to let Fernando Rodney walk. (Rodney had a decent year in his first full season as closer, but will be 33 in March.)

I'd still do Vitters, Cashner and Fox for Granderson. For those of you who say, "No way! Keep those prospects! We can't give up both Vitters and Cashner!", I say that one of the things you can do with your prospects is turn them into productive major league players. The Cubs did this in acquiring Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez; when D-Lee was acquired he was just about the same age Granderson is now.

I might even do Vitters, Fox, Cashner AND Jackson for Granderson. To illustrate why, let me tell you a little story I just read about from Cubs history. Take it for what it's worth, because it came from the new edition of Leo Durocher's (ghostwritten by Ed Linn) autobiography, "Nice Guys Finish Last" (mini-book-review: recommended, for its interesting take on Durocher's era in baseball history). In it, he describes having discussions along with GM John Holland, with the Baltimore Orioles in the winter of 1971 about trading for Frank Robinson. According to the book, the Orioles asked for five young players -- pitchers Earl Stephenson, Jim Colborn, Bill Bonham, Joe Decker and outfielder Brock Davis. Durocher's book says they hedged, asking to make it four-for-one, not wanting to give up both Decker and Bonham.

You know what? They should have offered Baltimore GM Frank Cashen a handshake and done the deal right then and there. The next day, Robinson was traded to the Dodgers -- for four minor leaguers, only one of whom (Doyle Alexander) had a significant major league career.

The day after that, the Cubs traded Stephenson, Colborn and Davis to the Brewers for Jose Cardenal. Stephenson and Davis never had any significant impact in the major leagues. Colborn did have a few decent major league seasons, winning 20 games for the Brewers in 1973. Bill Bonham never became the big winner the Cubs thought he would; eventually he was traded to the Reds for Woodie Fryman and Bill Caudill. Joe Decker was traded to the Twins (with Bill Hands) a year later for Dave LaRoche.

None of those deals would have had the impact that getting Frank Robinson to play right field for the 1972 Cubs would have had. At 35, Robinson was past his best years, but would have been a far better hitter in Wrigley Field than he was in Dodger Stadium that year. (Robinson also got hurt in 1972 and missed almost 60 games; whether that would have happened to him as a Cub is unknown, obviously.)

The 1972 Cubs finished fourth in the league in runs scored and would have been a better offensive team with Frank Robinson than they were with Jose Cardenal; neither Bonham nor Decker had any significant impact on the '72 team.

The point is, that sometimes you have to take team "prospects" -- who may never pan out to what you hope they will -- to win now. Trading Vitters and Jay Jackson -- or even Vitters, Jackson and Cashner -- may provide dividends to the Detroit Tigers two or three years down the road. But acquiring Curtis Granderson, who, in addition to his talent on the field, is also, from all reports, a good clubhouse guy who spends a lot of time giving back to the community (and is a native Chicagoan), would go a long way to helping the 2010 Cubs return to the playoffs and give them a chance to win it all.

And isn't that what we all want?

As we often say here... GETITDON EJIM.