SB Nation - Howie Kendrick

Best Angels Prospect Performances, Going Back to 2005

rghan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 22:02:48 -0000

Below is a compilation of the Halos' best prospect performances going back to 2005. I give two run values for position players: the "+ bat" is how many more runs that prospect created over their league's average player according to a widely-used runs created formula. The "+ glove" is how many runs that player saved in the field according to Sean Smith's "TotalZone" defensive metric. For pitchers, I compare their runs allowed per game to the league average to generate the "runs saved" metric. Both pitchers and position players are then ranked by "WAR," or "Wins Above Replacement," which is an inclusive metric that incorporates each player's runs values with adjustments for playing time and position. Using the replacement-level concept for minor leaguers brings up all kinds of theoretical sabermetric questions, but I have my reasons for keeping the calculations as similar as I could to those used for major leaguers.

Lastly, keep in mind that WAR is a counting stat and minor leaguers play at least 10% fewer games than their major league counterparts, so a 3.9 WAR here is more impressive (for temporal reasons only) than a 3.9 WAR over a 162 game schedule.

30) Anthony Ortega, 2007, High A

7 wins, 11 losses. 163.1 IP, 4.02 ERA, 127 K / 68 BB. +13 runs saved, 3.9 WAR.

29) Mike Napoli, 2005, AA

.237/.372/.508 with 31 HR's and 12 SB's. +18 bat, 3.9 WAR

28) Freddy Sandoval, 2008, AAA

.335/.389/.514 with 15 HR's and 6 SB's. +18 bat, +3 glove, 4.0 WAR

27) Hainley Statia, 2006, A and High A

.298/.380/.382 with 1 HR and 24 SB's. +7 bat, +12 glove, 4.0 WAR

26) Peter Bourjos, 2009, AA

.281/.354/.423 with 6 HR's and 32 SB's. +7 bat, +15 glove, 4.1 WAR

25) Sean Rodriguez, 2008, AAA

.306/.397/.645 with 21 HR's and 4 SB's. +24 bat, +6 glove, 4.1 WAR

24) Brok Butcher, 2007, High A and AA

6 wins, 9 losses. 139.1 IP, 3.36 ERA, 77 K / 35 BB. +22 runs saved, 4.1 WAR

23) Trevor Bell, 2009, AA and AAA

7 wins, 7 losses. 140 IP, 2.70 ERA, 89 K/36 BB. +22 runs saved, 4.1 WAR

22) Sean Rodriguez, 2007, AA

.254/.345/.423 with 17 HR's and 15 SB's. +11 bat, +7 glove, 4.2 WAR

21) Matthew Brown, 2008, AAA

.320/.373/.580 with 21 HR's and 4 SB's. +25 bat, +6 glove, 4.3 WAR

20) Freddy Sandoval, 2007, AA

.305/.392/.468 with 11 HR's and 21 SB's. +21 bat, +3 glove, 4.4 WAR

19) Peter Bourjos, 2008, High A

.295/.326/.444 with 9 HR's and 50 SB's. +0 bat, +24 glove, 4.4 WAR

18) Trevor Reckling, 2009, High A and AA

9 wins, 9 losses. 154.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 122 K/78 BB. +25 runs saved, 4.4 WAR

17) Nick Adenhart, 2006, A and High A

15 wins, 4 losses. 158.1 IP, 2.56 ERA, 145 K/42 BB. +27 runs saved, 4.5 WAR

16) Anthony Norman, 2008, High A

.257/.381/.468 with 15 HR's and 36 SB's. +13 bat, +22 glove, 4.5 WAR

15) Chris Pettit, 2006, Advanced Rookie Ball

.336/.445/.566 with 7 HR's and 5 SB's. +24 bat, +14 glove, 4.5 WAR

14) Reggie Willits, 2006, AAA

.327/.448/.426 with 3 HR's and 15 SB's. +12 bat, +19 glove, 4.6 WAR

13) Alexander Torres, 2009, AA

13 wins, 4 losses. 147.1 IP, 2.75 ERA, 149 SO/80 BB. +28 runs saved, 4.7 WAR

12) Roberto Lopez, 2008, Advanced Rookie Ball

.400/.480/.667 with 14 HR's and 3 SB's. +42 bat, -3 glove, 4.7 WAR

11) Joe Saunders, 2006, AAA

10 wins, 3 losses. 135 IP, 2.67 ERA, 97 K/38 BB. +31 runs saved, 4.8 WAR

10) Clayton Fuller, 2008, A

.260/.379/.425 with 9 HR's and 36 SB's. +20 bat, +9 glove, 4.8 WAR

9) Sean Rodriguez, 2009, AAA

.299/.4 00/.616 with 29 HR's and 9 SB's. +36 bat, -2 glove, 5.0 WAR

8) Chris Pettit, 2007, A and High A

.327/.411/.538 with 18 HR's and 30 SB's. +43 bat, -7 glove, 5.1 WAR

7) Howie Kendrick, 2006, AAA

.369/.408/.631 with 13 HR's and 11 SB's. +33 bat, +7 glove, 5.2 WAR

6) Carlos Ramirez, 2009, Advanced Rookie Ball

.389/.514/.695 with 10 HR's and 0 SB's. +36 bat, +8 glove, 5.3 WAR

5) Stephen Marek, 2006, A and High A

12 wins, 5 losses. 151.1 IP, 2.38 ERA, 133 K/ 37 BB. +36 runs saved, 5.3 WAR

4) Alexia Amarista, 2009, A

.319/.390/.468 with 4 HR's and 38 SB's. +18 bat, +20 glove, 5.8 WAR

3) Howie Kendrick, 2005, High A and AA

.367/.406/.614 with 19 HR's and 25 SB's. +44 bat, +8 glove, 6.7 WAR

2) Sean Rodriguez, 2006, High A

.307/.387/.557 with 29 HR's and 15 SB's. +35 bat, +13 glove, 7.4 WAR

1) Brandon Wood, 2005, High A

.321/.383/.672 with 43 HR's and 7 SB's. +54 bat, +8 glove, 8.7 WAR

Alexia Amarista: Best Angels Prospect Performance #1

rghan — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 09:29:26 -0000

1) Alexia Amarista, 20 - 2B, A-Ball

.319/.390/.468 with 4 HR and 38 SB's. +18 bat, +20 glove

Only three players have put up better seasons in the Halos' system over the past five years: Brandon Wood in 2005, Howie Kendrick in 2005, and Sean Rodriguez in 2006. That's some pretty good company for Amarista, whom Baseball America failed to even mention in their Midwest League's top 20 prospects, despite the fact that he won the batting title, was voted best defensive second baseman by the league's managers, and was younger than half of the guys who made the top 20. The reason for the snub, of course, is Amarista's height - he's 5'6" or 5'5," depending on who you ask, though he's built like a cornerback - which means he may be maxed out physically. This is more of a scouting/projectability issue, which is not my area of expertise, so take my feelings on the matter with a grain of salt. Screw BA on this one. With Amarista's blend of batting eye, high contact rate, speed, gap power and consistency, he's likely to continue producing with the bat as he ascends through the minors (unlike, say Clay Fuller from last year, who in retrospect lacked the contact rate and consistency). And even if advanced pitching causes the bat to tail off at the higher levels, the glove alone will continue to make him an interesting prospect. Is his ceiling huge? No, but there's enough here statistically not to write him off.

One last thing: Fangraphs credits Amarista with a +27.5 bat, due to the massive park factor they use and an added premium for speed. I'm not sure he was that good, but I would concede that his true value likely fell somewhere between the 5.75 wins ("WARP") I have him down for, and the ~6.5 wins that the fangraphs' numbers would suggest. In a 144 game minor league season, that is phenomenal.

Carlos Ramirez: Best Angels Prospect Performance #2

rghan — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:14:46 -0000

2) Carlos Ramirez, 21 - C, Advanced Rookie Pioneer League

.389/.514/.695 with 10 HR and 0 SB's. +36 bat, +8 glove

Sammy Swenson. Matt Pali. Josh Gray. Sergio Contreras. Grodon Gronkowski. Those are some other guys who pounded the ball in the Pioneer League over the past decade, but never encored against advanced competition. I mention them only to provide the perspective one has to have when looking at ridiculous Pioneer League stats.

That said, Ramirez' offensive production was better than all of them, and better than the production of more well known Pioneer League mashers Chris Pettit, Roberto Lopez, Dallas McPherson, Howie Kendrick and Sean Rodriguez. He didn't make his debut until July 19th, so only managed 214 PA's, but they were the best PA's Orem has seen in at least a decade. Throw in the fact that he's an above average receiver with excellent intangibles, and we may have a major leaguer on our hands. Behind Conger and Wilson there is little standout catching depth, so Ramirez, who is just a hair younger than Conger, could move very quickly next year.

And if you still need convincing, let me insert a quote from Sean Smith, creator of TotalZone, who was interested in putting Ramirez' college numbers from ASU into context:

Comparing [Ramirez' college] numbers to a pair of Sun Devils, Andre Ethier and Dustin Pedroia, I get:

avg slg

C-Ram 361 635

Ped 384 544

AE 371 559

I only have Carlo's walk numbers for 2009 so I didn't compare OBP, but his walk rate is similar to theirs, though he strikes out more often than they did.

The Halos tried and failed to sign Ramirez after selecting him in the 34th round of the 2007 draft. Makes you wonder why he was still around in the 8th round this year, doesn't it?

Again, remember that this list is based entirely on statistical performance in 2009, and is not a traditional "best prospects" ranking.

July 8th to August 3rd

WiHaloFan — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 20:13:06 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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On July 11th, the Angels placed Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter on the disabled list retroactive to Wednesday July 8th. At the time of this transaction, the Angels were in second place, one game behind the Texas Rangers. This would be Guerrero's second trip to the DL, but at the time of Hunter's injury, he was easily the Angels' MVP up to that point of the season as he was hitting .305 and leading the team with 17 home runs.

Most teams, after losing the #4 and #5 hitters in their batting order for almost a month would typically call it a season. How could a team be able to withstand losing so much production from the middle of their order? Yet, in spite of losing both Hunter and Guerrero on the same day, the Angels went on a hitting spree resulting in the team winning 17 of the next 21 games and taking over first place in the West division, moving 4 games ahead of the Rangers.

How did the Angels withstand, in fact even flourish after losing two of their most important players? Possible explanations:

Playing against weaker teams
During this stretch, the Angels played the Rangers, Yankees, A's, Royals, Twins, and Indians. These teams went a combined 482-491 during the 2009 season, or a .495 winning percentage. Playing teams who were a combined 9 games under .500 may have had a small factor in the Angels success during those 21 games, however they did play 13 of the 21 games against the 3 teams with winning records (Rangers, Yankees, and Twins). No, they weren't beating up on weaker teams.

The Angels Pitching Was Fantastic
At the time when Hunter and Guerrero went onto the disabled list, the Angel pitching staff had a team ERA of 4.72 (380ER in 725IP). During the 21 games while Hunter and Guerrero were gone the staff ERA was 4.88 (104ER in 192IP). The pitching didn't get better, but actually was slightly worse.

The Angel Hitters Went Nuts
Prior to losing Hunter and Guerrero, the Angels were scoring 5.3 runs a game and hitting .281/.353/.435 as a team. After the Angels lost two of their more productive hitters, the rest of the line up went crazy, scoring 7.6 runs per game and hitting .324/.389/.511. The Angels 3, 4, 5, and 6 spots in their batting order:

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Napoli	76	15	24	7	0	6	13	5	17	.316	.381	.645	1.026
Morales	72	16	26	5	0	9	24	6	9	.361	.425	.806	1.231
Rivera	42	9	13	1	0	2	8	3	3	.310	.356	.476	.832
Abreu	84	18	33	4	0	2	22	12	15	.393	.474	.512	.986
	274	58	96	17	0	19	67	26	44	.350	.407	.620	1.027

Bobby Abreu remained in the #3 spot throughout the entire 21 games, while Rivera played all 11 of his games in the clean-up spot. Morales and Napoli moved around in the batting order with Morales typically batting 5th and Napoli splitting his time hitting 4th, 5th or 6th. Here's what Napoli did in various spots of the batting order:

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
4th	21	4	4	2	0	2	6	1	8	.190	.261	.571	.832
5th	29	6	9	2	0	2	4	3	4	.310	.394	.586	.980
6th	26	5	11	3	0	2	3	1	5	.423	.464	.769	1.234

Kendry Morales thrived hitting in front of Napoli:

AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
47	10	17	2	0	6	13	4	7	.362	.423	.787	1.210

While no one hit well in front of Matthews.

Batters' stats who preceeded:

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
GMJ	36	5	9	4	0	0	2	2	7	.250	.308	.361	.669
Morales	61	15	19	3	0	3	12	9	10	.311	.417	.508	.925
Napoli	75	15	30	6	0	7	22	5	9	.400	.444	.760	1.204

I generally focused on the players who replaced Hunter and Guerrero in the #4 and #5 spots in the batting order, but the primary players who took over for Hunter and Guerrero in the lineup were Matthews, Izturis and Kendrick. Matthews received the bulk of playing time by replacing Hunter in centerfield, however he was easily the worst of the regular players:

	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Aybar	64	14	19	2	0	3	15	3	6	.297	.328	.469	.797
Izturis	64	14	19	2	0	3	15	3	6	.297	.328	.469	.797
Kendrick	55	12	24	5	0	2	15	5	7	.436	.492	.636	1.128
Figgins	87	21	28	2	2	2	9	14	20	.322	.416	.460	.876
Matthews	85	12	23	5	0	0	13	10	23	.271	.347	.329	.677

While Matthews wasn't doing much with his increased playing time, Howie Kendrick took advantage by getting on base almost half of the time and improving his batting average from .228 to .273 over the 21 games.

Was it a fluke that 8 of the nine regulars in the Angels lineup got hot at the same time, or was there another dynamic within their batting order that caused the hitters to improve once Hunter and Guerrero were gone?

I'm thinking it was a combination of both factors.

Poll

What caused the Angels offense to do so well while Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter were on the DL from 7/8 to 8/3?

Just a fluke they all got hot at the same time

160 votes

Better "dynamic" within the batting order

156 votes

Part fluke, part better batting order

176 votes

Other (comment below)

16 votes

508 votes | Poll has closed

2010 Bill James Player Projections

WiHaloFan — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 14:03:05 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

Los Angeles Angels manager Mike Scioscia has a busy off season in store for him.

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Now that the Angels off-season is officially here, it's time to start the speculation of player moves the team may make prior to the start of the 2010 season. To help fuel the discussion on who should stay and who should go, below are the 2010 player projections courtesy of the 2010 Bill James Handbook (which will be published on or before November 1st). The Bill James projections have been around for over 20 years, and the handbook has proven to be a valuable addition to a fan's bookshelf for either quick reference or deep analysis.

Angel players expected to return in 2010:

Pos			G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
C	Mike Napoli	2009-Actual	114	382	60	104	22	1	20	56	3	3	40	103	.272	.350	.492	.842
		2010-Projected	115	395	68	105	21	1	24	69	5	3	54	103	.266	.361	.506	.868
1B	Kendry Morales#	2009-Actual	152	566	86	173	43	2	34	108	3	7	46	117	.306	.355	.569	.924
		2010-Projected	153	572	80	168	38	1	29	98	2	3	40	97	.294	.341	.516	.857
2B	Howie Kendrick	2009-Actual	105	374	61	109	21	3	10	61	11	4	20	71	.291	.334	.444	.778
		2010-Projected	124	467	70	144	34	3	11	68	14	6	21	76	.308	.343	.465	.808
SS	Erick Aybar#	2009-Actual	137	504	70	157	23	9	5	58	14	7	30	54	.312	.353	.423	.776
		2010-Projected	139	520	75	151	25	6	6	57	18	9	28	55	.290	.330	.396	.726
LF	Juan Rivera	2009-Actual	138	529	72	152	24	1	25	88	0	1	36	57	.287	.332	.478	.810
		2010-Projected	138	529	69	149	30	0	23	87	0	0	36	62	.282	.329	.469	.797
CF	Torii Hunter	2009-Actual	119	451	74	135	26	1	22	90	18	4	47	92	.299	.366	.508	.873
		2010-Projected	146	556	82	151	33	1	24	92	16	7	48	113	.272	.335	.464	.799
MI	Maicer Izturis#	2009-Actual	114	387	74	116	22	3	8	65	13	5	35	41	.300	.359	.434	.794
		2010-Projected	124	446	70	126	25	3	6	56	14	6	43	48	.283	.348	.392	.741
OF	Gary Matthews#	2009-Actual	103	316	44	79	19	2	4	50	4	1	40	74	.250	.336	.361	.697
		2010-Projected	124	403	55	101	23	2	9	48	6	3	44	91	.251	.327	.385	.712
C	Jeff Mathis	2009-Actual	84	237	26	50	8	0	5	28	2	3	22	73	.211	.288	.308	.596
		2010-Projected	85	238	30	52	12	1	6	29	2	1	21	61	.218	.287	.353	.640
		2009 - Total		3746	567	1075	208	22	133	604	68	35	316	682	.287
		2010 - Total		4126	599	1147	241	18	138	604	77	38	335	706	.278

The above nine players are under contract with the Angels for 2010, and with the exception of Matthews, will most likely be in their opening day line up. As you will notice, the James projections show a slight increase in run production in spite of a decrease in batting average and on base percentage. It would have been interesting to see what the projected production of Brandon Wood would have been, but providing numbers for players with little major league experience is hard to predict.

A couple things stand out; Howie Kendrick with 34 doubles in only 124 games. This would be 45 doubles if he played an entire season. Yet, he's projected to add just one base on balls in 93 more at bats. Two of the youngest Angels are projected to show a slight decline from 2009. Kendry Morales is projected to decline in his power output, while Erick Aybar's breakout season looks to also fade in 2010.

Angel Free Agents:

			G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
3B	Chone Figgins#	2009-Actual	158	615	114	183	30	7	5	54	42	17	101	114	.298	.395	.393	.789
		2010-Projected	154	578	97	165	25	5	5	51	37	15	76	105	.285	.369	.372	.741
RF	Bobby Abreu*	2009-Actual	152	563	96	165	29	3	15	103	30	8	94	113	.293	.390	.435	.825
		2010-Projected	157	606	103	173	38	2	18	101	25	9	101	127	.285	.389	.444	.833
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	2009-Actual	100	383	59	113	16	1	15	50	2	1	19	56	.295	.334	.460	.794
		2010-Projected	135	508	77	155	29	1	24	88	5	3	46	70	.305	.369	.508	.876

What's interesting with these three players is they fall into 3 different categories; declining, sustaining, and improving. The player projections for Guerrero were pretty generous, and are relying on his improved health and increasing playing time, but what really surprises me is his increase in base-on-balls with a much smaller ratio of strikeouts. Although his BB% in 2009 was the lowest of his career (4.7%), the projections have him returning to his career level of 8.3%.

Figgins also looks like he'll revert to his career numbers in BB%, resulting in a significant drop in OBP (but still higher than his career OBP of .363). Turning 32 in January, re-signing Figgins might not be the right move for the Halos, especially if a large salary increase and declining numbers are considered.

Bobby Abreu looks like he's aging well. His numbers are projected to remain about the same as in 2009, which were pretty much in line with his career number...with the exception in slugging percentage.

Notable Free Agents - 2010 Projected

	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Matt Holliday	30	155	605	105	191	43	3	27	109	14	6	66	112	.316	.391	.531	.922
Jason Bay	31	153	560	99	150	32	2	32	103	11	4	88	159	.268	.374	.504	.878
Nick Johnson	31	124	426	67	118	29	1	12	62	2	2	91	83	.277	.414	.434	.849
Adam LaRoche	30	152	571	79	155	42	1	26	91	1	1	79	91	.271	.348	.485	.833
Adrian Beltre	31	131	483	61	130	29	1	17	68	10	4	32	82	.269	.321	.439	.760
Miguel Tejada	36	157	622	84	186	37	1	18	91	4	3	32	62	.299	.342	.449	.791
Rick Ankiel	30	118	375	53	95	19	1	18	59	3	2	29	87	.253	.310	.453	.764
Xavier Nady	31	124	424	54	121	25	1	17	65	2	1	28	85	.285	.337	.469	.806

Is Tejada really 36? Could Nick Johnson stay healthy two seasons in a row (and can his limited power return)? How much will Nady cost and will he be healthy? Break the bank for Holliday?

Obviously, these numbers aren't written in stone. They're just educated guesses at what to expect from these players, but they do provide a good base to build discussion on.

Angels Yankees ALCS Game 6 Lineups Remain the Same?

Rev Halofan — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 09:04:36 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Angels' Joe Saunders, scheduled starter for Game 6 of the American League Championship baseball series against the New York Yankees, walks back to the dugout after the game was postponed because of rain Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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These lineups for the Angels and Yankees were posted before Saturday's postponement and there is no reason to think they will change for Sunday... What do you think of them? There was talk that Figgins would be demoted to batting 9th, but lo and behold, he remains atop the lineup and the hot bat of Banjo Mathis stays in the mix as well.

Angels
Chone Figgins, 3B
Bobby Abreu, RF
Torii Hunter, CF
Vladimir Guerrero, DH
Kendry Morales, 1B
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Juan Rivera, LF
Jeff Mathis, C
Erick Aybar, SS

Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS
Johnny Damon, LF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Jorge Posada, C
Hideki Matsui, DH
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Melky Cabrera, CF

Joe Saunders (LHP) @ Andy Pettitte (LHP)

What do you think of these batting orders?

Jeff Mathis Walk Off Double Beats Yankees in Extra Innings

Rev Halofan — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 00:36:57 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels' Howie Kendrick (47) celebrates with Erick Aybar (2) after scoring the game-winning run on a double by Jeff Mathis during the 11th inning of Game 3 of the American League Championship baseball series against the New York Yankees Monday, Oct. 19, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. The Angels won 5-4. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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Final Score in 11 Innings in Los Angeles of Anaheim: Angels 5, Yankees 4

A four hour plus game of extended action and intrigue ended on a booming hit and an even quicker exit from the national broadcasters terrified of interviewing players they know nothing about. Despite being the most dramatic postseason moment yet, FOX coverage of the game quickly split because Derek Jeter's jock did not need washing.

A grueling battle of men left on base, baserunning miscues, and lost opportunities, solo power shots and clutch hits was not wasted this time. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim got a 2-out walk-off double in extra innings by their late-inning substitute catcher to drive in their platooning 2Bman who was sent to the minors mid-season.

In postgame comments, Yankee skipper Joe Girardi said he could not stretch out über-closer Mariano Rivera more than one inning and than stupidly replaced a no-name reliever (Hummerson? Roberta Smith? Fox broadcasters were so excited to go to a commercial for more money to send Rupert Murdoch's way that they barely discussed anything but the genius of the Yankee manager) in the 11th with 2 outs for Alfredo Aceves. He gave up a base hit to Howie Kendrick. that left Howie a double shy of the cycle and Jeff Mathis complied with booming walk-off double to the base of Left Field wall.

There were many moments in the game where the Angels tried to hand the Yankees the game. Call it a tightrope, call it fate, the Mathis double saved many many goats in red from being forever remembered a braying in the hay field. Kevin Jepsen let the Yankees tie the game with a solo HR to Jorge Posada on a pitch that the average little leaguer would have hit over the centerfield wall. Bobby Abreu turned a leadoff double turn into a leadoff out as he was picked off trying ot get back to 2nd after deciding not to stretch it into a triple. Even worse than the out it caused, it allowed Fox to slobber love drool over Jeter for a routine pick-off - in fact Melky Cabrera's great fielding was ignored in order for Fox to lovingly chew Jeter's sack once again.

All of the Yankee runs were solo homers. But no way this overpaid lineup invests in better living thru chemistry. No way, you can bet the Brooklyn bridge you just bought from Tooth Fairy Realty on it.

Poll

Panther of the Game

Jeff Mathis

618 votes

Howie Kendrick

227 votes

Daren Oliver

19 votes

864 votes | Poll has closed

Playoff Teams Defense Analysis - How They Got There and What to Expect - American League Edition

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 16:32:12 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels center fielder Gary Matthews Jr. catches a fly ball in front of a mural honoring Los Angeles Angels rookie pitcher Nick Adenhart, Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2009, during practice in preparation for the team's upcoming playoff baseball game in Anaheim, Calif. Adenhart died in a car accident last April. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

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A couple days ago I publish the look at the defensive stats of the teams that made the playoffs in the National League. Now it is time for the American League. For this analysis, I will be using UZR data from from Fangraphs.com. I computed the numbers a few days ago and waited for the season to end. Fangraphs updates their numbers on Monday so these UZR are not from this Monday but the Monday before that.

First, here are the totals of all the AL teams in the playoffs:

As it can be seen, the Angel's defense this season was the best of the four teams with them saving about 30 more runs than the Yankees and Red Sox and about 45 more runs than the Twins.

Besides the team totals, the UZR can be broken down to individual positions. Here is a comparison of each of the 4 teams by position totals.

None of these team were great in the field and shows by the variations from position to position.

Even though these graphs show how a team did during the season, it doesn't show what to except in the post season. For example, the Angels missed Tori Hunter for a while due to injury and the players that replaced him might explain the low ranking in CF for the Angels (actually Tori had a pretty bad year in CF). For each team, I went ahead and calculated the true UZR value of each player projected to start in the playoffs.

For those that need to know, it was a 5-4-3-2 weighted average of seasonally regressed values to 125 games with no final age adjustment. For example, Derek Jeter had a 6.4 UZR for 2009, but taking into account his previous seasons his true talent level is near -1.7 UZR.

So here is a look at each team's 2009 numbers and the true talent level of the players expected to play during the post season (I will add more as needed - when injuries happen or if I happened to miss someone).

Minnesota Twins (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Justin Morneau	0.67
1B	Michael Cuddyer	-0.13
2B	Nick Punto	0.81
2B	Alexi Casilla	-2.73
3B	Matt Tolbert	-0.03
3B	Joe Crede	7.44
3B	Brendan Harris	-1.2
SS	Nick Punto	2.59
SS	Orlando Cabrera	-0.11
LF	Delmon Young	-10.2
LF	Denard Span	2.12
CF	Carlos Gomez	7.6
CF	Denard Span	-0.72
RF	Jason Kubel	-1.39
RF	Michael Cuddyer	-7
RF	Denard Span	1.82

LA Angels (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Kendry Morales	3.0
2B	Howie Kendrick	1.8
2B	Maicer Izturis	1.5
3B	Chone Figgins	6.6
SS	Erick Aybar	3.7
SS	Maicer Izturis	1.0
LF	Juan Rivera	5.9
CF	Gary Matthews Jr.	-5.4
CF	Torii Hunter	-6.0
RF	Bobby Abreu	-11.3
RF	Gary Matthews Jr.	-1.0

New York Yankees (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Mark Teixeira	1.5
2B	Robinson Cano	-1.9
3B	Alex Rodriguez	-3.7
SS	Derek Jeter	-1.7
LF	Johnny Damon	-2.4
CF	Melky Cabrera	-1.5
CF	Brett Gardner	3.2
RF	Nick Swisher	2.1
RF	Eric Hinske	0.6
RF	Melky Cabrera	-0.3

Boston Red Sox (2009 UZR Results and True Current UZR Seasonal Talent Levels)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Victor Martinez	-0.1
1B	Kevin Youkilis	3.2
1B	Casey Kotchman	4.5
2B	Dustin Pedroia	6.9
3B	Mike Lowell	2.3
3B	Kevin Youkilis	-0.1
SS	Alex Gonzalez	4.5
SS	Nick Green	-2.0
SS	Jed Lowrie	4.2
LF	Jason Bay	-9.6
CF	Jacoby Ellsbury	-6.7
RF	Rocco Baldelli	-0.6
RF	J.D. Drew	4.6

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First, thanks to Justin for supplying the graphics and let me know if any players might be seeing playing time in the first 2 rounds. I am not going to go through all possible lineups once the DH is added and removed in the World Series until two teams qualify.

ALDS Preview: Breaking down the Los Angeles Angels' key players

Randy Booth — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:01:05 -0000

More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

2 months ago: The Los Angeles Angels mob the field after clinching the AL West title with an 11-0 win over the Texas Rangers in an MLB baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Monday, Sept. 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)

Browse more photos »

Today is the day: the first game of the American League Division Series. The Red Sox are in Los Angeles prepping for the Halos as we speak. Jon Lester, getting warm. Jason Bay, doing voodoo on his bat. Terry Francona, shoving chew in his mouth like it's going out of style.

With that, her is your primer on the Angels' key players for the start of tonight's series.

Lineup

Chone Figgins

#9 / Third Base / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 5-8

Weight: 180

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jan 22, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chone Figgins	158	615	114	183	30	7	5	54	101	114	42	17	.298	.395	.393

Here's the good news: Tim Wakefield will not be pitching in the ALDS, meaning Chone Figgins can not steal off of him. Figgins' biggest asset is his speed. The Angels have stolen 15 bags against the Sox this year (second most against any team behind the Yankees), and Figgins has stolen six of those, the most steals he has against any team this season (and that's in just nine games). Figgins has gotten on base at a .395 clip against the Sox this season, so it'll be important to try and keep him off the basepaths or he'll do a lot of damage.

Bobby Abreu

#53 / Right Field / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-0

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Mar 11, 1974

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Bobby Abreu	152	563	96	165	29	3	15	103	94	113	30	8	.293	.390	.435

Abreu was one of the best pickups of the offseason when it comes to "guys you don't expect much out of." The stats really don't lie with Abreu -- he's a solid player that doesn't have too many holes in his game (well, there's that defense thing. But that's negligible, right?). The way Abreu can hurt the Sox is just by forcing a lot of pitches. He's currently 5th in the AL in pitches per plate appearance at 4.21 (Figgins is 4th at 4.22, but our man Kevin Youkilis leads at 4.40). If the Sox can get Abreu out early in counts, they'll save a lot of pitches for later in the game.

Torii Hunter

#48 / Center Field / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-2

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 18, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Torii Hunter	119	451	74	135	26	1	22	90	47	92	18	4	.299	.366	.508

Hunter is one of the Halos' bigger power threats, but not their biggest. Hunter missed a lot of games this year, but he was still able to put up a lot of good numbers -- in 119 games, his .869 OPS was the best of his career. Like a lot of players in this lineup, he's a threat to do almost anything. He'll hit home runs, steal bases, walk at a pretty good rate; he's their No. 3 hitter for a reason.

Vladimir Guerrero

#27 / Designated Hitter / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-3

Weight: 235

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 09, 1976

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Vladimir Guerrero	100	383	59	113	16	1	15	50	19	56	2	1	.295	.334	.460

This is not the same Vladimir Guerrero you're used to, but he's still pretty good. With that said, he's striking out more this season and he's walking less than he ever has. His power is down, too, but he still can't be labeled a "non-threat." If you leave him a flat curveball, he probably will deposit it into the bleachers.

Juan Rivera

#20 / Left Field / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 03, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Juan Rivera	138	529	72	152	24	1	25	88	36	57	0	1	.287	.332	.478

Rivera is kind of going the opposite route of Vlad. Rivera, in his first full season, is walking more and striking out less, while putting up solid power numbers. He's also a pretty solid fielder in left (except this moment -- what happened there?). Fortunately, Rivera has struggled against the Sox this season, hitting just .194 in eight games.

Kendry Morales

#19 / First Base / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jun 20, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kendry Morales	152	566	86	173	43	2	34	108	46	117	3	7	.306	.355	.569

Clearly the Angels' MVP this season, Morales is just one of many scary hitters in this lineup. He leads the team in home runs (34), RBIs (107), slugging (.571) and OPS (.927). He also leads in strikeouts, which may be one of his few weaknesses. The good thing is that he's cooled down this past month, hitting just .269 in September and October with four home runs. He also sported a .200 batting average against the Sox in 35 at-bats this year.

Howie Kendrick

#47 / Second Base / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 5-10

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 12, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Howie Kendrick	105	374	61	109	21	3	10	61	20	71	11	4	.291	.334	.444

Geez. There isn't a break in this lineup, is there? Kendrick doesn't walk a lot, but he can usually get a bat on the ball. He doesn't have much power, but he's decent on the basepaths and is an above-average defender. He'd probably be a bigger factor on a team without such a good lineup.

Mike Napoli

#44 / Catcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-0

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 31, 1981

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mike Napoli	114	382	60	104	22	1	20	56	40	103	3	3	.272	.350	.492

Mike Napoli, or better known as this guy, has always seemed to be a thorn in the Sox's side. He has three home runs against the Sox this year, tied (with the Blue Jays) for the most he's hit against any team. Like Morales though, Napoli has struggled lately, hitting just .192 in September and October. He strikes out quite a bit, but he has a lot of power. Memo: don't give him anything to hit.

Erick Aybar

#2 / Short Stop / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 5-10

Weight: 170

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jan 14, 1984

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Erick Aybar	137	504	70	157	23	9	5	58	30	54	14	7	.312	.353	.423

Another guy that hits for average. But luckily, Aybar doesn't have the power as most of his other teammates have. He is kind of a pest at the plate though, because he doesn't strike out very often. The Sox should be more worried about what he does on defense, as he mans the shortstop position pretty well. Aybar is expected to start against right handed pitchers.

Maicer Izturis

#13 / Short Stop / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 5-8

Weight: 170

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Sep 12, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Maicer Izturis	114	387	74	116	22	3	8	65	35	41	13	5	.300	.359	.434

There's not a big difference between Aybar and Izturis. Izturis hits for average, but not much power and plays solid defense. Just another guy that can make contact with the ball, basically.

Pitching Staff

John Lackey

#41 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-6

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 23, 1978

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - John Lackey	11-8	27	27	1	1	0	0	176.1	177	84	75	17	47	139	3.83	1.27

The ace of this Angels staff will be on the hill for game one against the Sox. Lackey has pretty much been his normal self this season after a rocky start which saw his ERA at 6.05 after May. In the second half he rebounded though, going 7-4 with a 3.05 ERA. He only faced the Sox once this season, but it was a good start, holding the Sox to two runs in 7.2 innings. Thankfully, Dice-K was pretty good in that game, too. Lackey started two games in last year's ALDS and did pretty well against the Sox, allowing just four runs in 13.2 innings. The best thing the Sox can do against Lackey is what they try to do against any pitcher: make him throw, throw, throw. The Sox can beat Lackey -- they've done it before -- but patience is the best asset they can have against him.

Jered Weaver

#36 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-7

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 04, 1982

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jered Weaver	16-8	33	33	4	2	0	0	211.0	196	91	88	26	66	174	3.75	1.24

This season was Weaver's best since his rookie campaign. He's striking out batters at a consistent rate (7.42 per 9) and batters are hitting .248 off him. He is walking more batters and giving up more home runs than normal, but it's not too far off his career average. After a rough July (6.88 ERA) and August (4.58), he allowed just 13 runs in 37.2 innings in September and October. More bad news, though: Weaver is a deceptive pitcher who has handled the Sox this season in two starts. He allowed just one earned run in 13.2 innings and notched 12 strikeouts. He'll start game two.

Scott Kazmir

#22 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-0

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jan 24, 1984

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Scott Kazmir	2-2	6	6	0	0	0	0	36.1	28	8	7	1	10	26	1.73	1.05

Yup, we have to face Kazmir again -- except this time he's not wearing Tampa Bay colors. And since that trade that sent him packing to the West Coast, Kazmir has been pretty dominate, allowing just seven runs in more than 36 innings of work. This looks more like the 2007 Kazmir than the pre-trade Kazmir of 2009. His strikeouts are actually down with the Halos, but so are his walks (from 4.05 per 9 to 2.48). Batters are also hitting just .215 against Kazmir since the trade. He has always pitched well in Fenway too, notching a 3.05 ERA in 73.2 innings. The Sox will find success against Kazmir if he sees the Sox and thinks he's a Ray again -- maybe he'll mentally crack. That'd be nice.

Joe Saunders

#51 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 16, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Joe Saunders	16-7	31	31	1	1	0	0	186.0	202	102	95	29	64	101	4.60	1.43

Saunders will start game No. 4, but let's hope we won't have to see him. The good thing is, if the Sox do face Saunders, he's not as good as he was last year. More walks, more home runs and overall, just better success for hitters this season against Saunders. He wasn't that good against the Sox this season either, allowing six walks and 15 hits in 12.2 innings.

Ervin Santana

#54 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-2

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 12, 1982

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ervin Santana	8-8	24	23	2	2	0	0	139.2	159	83	78	24	47	107	5.03	1.47

The Sox won't see Santana start a game, but will most likely see him come out of the bullpen. Santana missed a lot of time this season (trust me, I was his faithful fantasy owner) and just hasn't been able to replicate his 08 season. He struck out two less batters per nine innings than last season and is walking at a higher rate (1.93 in '08, 3.07 this season). The Sox shouldn't have a lot of trouble hitting Santana -- if they see him.

Brian Fuentes

#40 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-4

Weight: 230

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 09, 1975

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Fuentes	1-5	65	0	0	0	48	7	55.0	53	24	24	6	24	46	3.93	1.40

The closer of the staff, Fuentes jumped ship from Colorado last season to replace Francisco Rodriguez. The results haven't been to pleasant: his ERA is up more than a run, his WHIP is up 0.3 and his strikeouts are down. That's the NL-AL switch for you. Despite his struggles, he had 48 saves on the season, the best in baseball. (This doesn't really say much for him, except the opportunities given to him. He blew seven saves to go along with it -- fourth most in baseball.)

Poll

How will the ALDS between the Red Sox and Angels finish?

Red Sox in 3

22 votes

Red Sox in 4

153 votes

Red Sox in 5

62 votes

Angels in 3

36 votes

Angels in 4

57 votes

Angels in 5

28 votes

358 votes | Poll has closed

2009 Angels Position Prospects, Historically Speaking

rghan — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 21:53:57 -0000

How good, historically speaking, were our best prospect performances in 2009? The short answer is, pretty good. According to the stat OPS+, Halos position prospects Carlos Ramirez, Dillon Baird, and Alexia Amarista put up some of the best performances of the decade. Not bad for a system widely criticized as having left its best days behind.

OPS+ adjusts offensive contributions to league and competitive context, so it's really the best stat to use when looking at performances across levels. Simply put, OPS+ is the best shorthand I know of making an apples-to-apples comparison of a player hitting .300 in the Midwest League to a player hitting .300 in the Pacific Coast League.

First, let's take a look at the best numbers. Here's a list of decade-best offensive performances over at least 100 PA's by OPS+. 2009 guys are in italics.

OPS+ PLAYER PA's LEVEL AGE YEAR

201 Carlos Ramirez 190 Adv_Rook 21 2009

193 Roberto Lopez 319 Adv_Rook 22 2008

193 Seth Loman 199 ASL_Rook 21 2007

188 Chris Pettit 266 A-Ball 22 2007

181 Dallas McPherson 302 AA 23 2004

180 Sammy Swenson 267 Adv_Rook 23 2001

177 Dallas McPherson 136 Adv_Rook 20 2001

177 Sergio Contreras 201 Adv_Rook 20 2000

176 Matthew Sweeney 202 ASL_Rook 18 2006

173 Howie Kendrick 337 A-Ball 20 2004

Notice any patterns here? Half of the best OPS+'s were put up by college kids in advanced rookie ball, where significant diversity of age and talent makes it relatively easy for older draftees to stand out. Still, Orem catcher Carlos Ramirez performed better than 85 other college kids with over a hundred rookie league PA's, and that demands recognition. He got on base in exactly half of his PA's. Moreover, if you add his numbers from the Pioneer League playoffs, his season line reads even better: a 219 OPS+ with 10 homeruns across 214 rookie ball plate appearances. He's a guy to watch next year.

But we're interested in guys who put up a larger sample size, so let's look at only the best performances of players who got at least 250 PA's and see if any more 2009 draftees float to the top.

OPS+ PLAYER PA's LEVEL AGE YEAR

193 Roberto Lopez 319 Adv_Rook 22 2008

188 Chris Pettit 266 A-Ball 22 2007

181 Dallas McPherson 302 AA 23 2004

180 Sammy Swenson 267 Adv_Rook 23 2001

173 Howie Kendrick 337 A-Ball 20 2004

173 Chris Pettit 272 Adv_Rook 21 2006

171 Howie Kendrick 312 AAA 22 2006

170 Dillon Baird 250 Adv_Rook 21 2009

167 Jose Fernandez 522 AAA 26 2001

167 Dallas McPherson 339 A+ 22 2003

Again, we see one player from 2009, this time Ramirez' Orem teammate, first baseman Dillon Baird. If you're curious, Randall Grichuk's age 17 season in the ASL ranks 25th on this list. Trout didn't have enough PA's to qualify.

Next, let's acknowledge that it's a far more difficult thing to outperform your peers over a full season, rather than just a half season. Here's a list of the decade's best performances by OPS+ over 500 or more PA's.

OPS+ PLAYER PA's LEVEL AGE YEAR

169 Dallas McPherson 573 AA, AAA 23 2004

167 Jose Fernandez 522 AAA 26 2001

163 Sean Rodriguez 724 AAA 23_24 2008+2009

158 Chris Pettit 573 A, A+ 22 2007

156 Brandon Wood 595 A+ 20 2005

153 Mike Campo 569 A+ 25 2002

144 Alexia Amarista 557 A 20 2009

143 Mike O'Keefe 537 AA 24 2002

142 Mike Napoli 584 A+ 22 2004

141 Robb Quinlan 588 AAA 25 2002

Cedar Rapids' second baseman Alexia Amarista is the next '09 name to pop up, which is something of a shock due to his lack of power relative to the other guys on the list. He had a very, very good season in a league that is very, very hard on hitters. I also included split seasons in this list, giving Dallas McPherson credit for his historic 2004 campaign in AA and AAA, and Chris Pettit for his very good season in A and High A. For Sean Rodriguez, I collapsed his '08 and '09 AAA seasons into a single line - he deserves to be remembered for his fine work there.

Sure, 2009 was no banner year for the Halos system, especially at the higher levels, but it did see some very good performances by players new to the organization. Those performances rank right up there with the best of a talent- rich decade, so I think it's fair to say that the pipeline is not running dry.