SB Nation - Rich Harden

Beyond The Box Score On The Rangers Dealing Kevin Millwood To Orioles & Signing Rich Harden

Tommy Rancel — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 21:19:12 -0000

As I sit at home with a sick child processing the happenings of the winter meetings, I figure now is a good time to catch Beyond The Boxscore up on the moves we've missed. Luckily, the bulk of the moves involve similar teams so we can consolidate some posts in the process.

Two moves that seem related to one another are the Rangers trading former ace Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for former closer Chris Ray; then turning right around and adding a pitcher with ace stuff in Rich Harden. SInce I don't follow the team closely, I'm not sure one deal officially led to another, but for a team that has money issues the timing seemed coincidental.

Moving Millwood and $3 million in cash to Baltimore cleared up $9 million dollars for 2010. If you include Chris Ray's expected salary of ~$1 million, then the savings are closer to $8 million. Harden will cost the Rangers $7.5 in 2010. The team also holds a team option for 2011 of over $11 million dollars.

Rangers fans shouldn't expect much from Ray. After a solid first two season with the Orioles, injuries have turned Ray into an average-to-below-average middle reliever. He missed the Majors in 2008 completely, and hasn't posted a sub 4.1 FIP season since his rookie campaign in 2005.

This previous season his FIP sat about the five mark and his tRA over six. He still shows good velocity after Tommy John surgery, and he did carry a ridiculous BABIP of .402 last season. However, home runs have been a problem in the past and remain. Because of his 7+ ERA, he won't get much of a raise in arbitration, if any. From the Rangers stand point, the move is what it is; a salary dump with a potential useful reliever thrown in the mix.

For the Orioles, they get a veteran starter to anchor a pretty young rotation. Millwood had a dandy 3.67 ERA in 2009, however, his 4.80 FIP, 4.78 xFIP, and 5.61 tRA don't speak highly of the soon-to-be 35-year-old's 2009 season. He doesn't strike out many and his 85.2% contact rate tells you he doesn't miss many bats. Since posting a 5.1 WAR in 2006, Millwood has averaged 2.8 WAR over the last three. At $9 million dollars, he should give the Orioles fair value, but isn't anything special. The move to the AL East will probably take some adjusting, but given the fact that he's probably one and done on rebuilding Baltimore team, it shouldn't really much matter.

A year after leaving the NL West, Rich Harden returns home to replace Millwood in the Rangers rotation. Nolan Ryan gets himself a hard-throwing ,strikeout pitcher, but I'm not sure that Harden fits the 300 inning/150 pitch per game starter that Ryan dreams about. He has topped 30 starts just once in his career, and has never pitched over 189 innings in a given season. Most likely Harden will give you 22-25 starts and 140 innings.

He shows flashes of brilliance as seen in his 2008 numbers, but is equally as frustrating as shown in his fourth starter-ish 2009 numbers. He does get a lot of K's which will put a smile on Nolan's face, and is the owner of some ridiculous contact rates which show how good his stuff can be. The only qualified starter with a sub 70% contact rate, Harden has produced swinging strike percentages north of 13% in each of the last five seasons and over 15% in two of the last three. The talent is there, unfortunately more often than not it's accompanied by a trainer. If healthy, Harden could give Texas a major boost in the increasingly competitive AL West.

Profiling Nick Johnson

Matthew — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:58:13 -0000

Moving on from Rich Harden, Nick Johnson is another player who fits right in the same sort of category as Harden and we have yet to profile him significantly. Like Harden, Johnson has been plagued by health issues in the past, but is coming off a decently healthy 2009. Also like Harden, Johnson has demonstrated significantly above average skills when able to take the field.

Nick Johnson hits. He's never failed to post above average lines for his park and league in his Major League career. On top of that, he's rated as a slightly above average fielder at first base as well by UZR. A full season from Nick Johnson would be expected to be between his 2006 year, a .290/.428/.520 line, and his 2009 .291/.426/.405 composite line. Throw in average first base defense and that's a four win player. That's about Johnson's 90th percentile year at this point in his career.

The risk with Johnson is his 2004, 2007 or 2008 seasons, three years that he combined for 360 at bats and 1.5 WAR. No matter what, you are going to be hedging your bets between those two extremes.

In addition to four-win upside, Nick Johnson brings in the same sort of offensive profile as Chone Figgins, a profile greatly needed on the Mariners lineup. The 4.6 pitches per plate appearance that Johnson averaged last year are unlikely to be repeated, but he consistently checks in at the 4.2-4.3 range. Stick him third in the lineup against right-handed starting pitchers and suddenly the prospect of leading off the game against Ichiro Suzuki, Chone Figgins and Nick Johnson, all batting from the left side, becomes a potential nightmare for opposing hurlers.

Word on the street is that Johnson is still holding out for two guaranteed while teams are still in a one + option frame of mind, much as with Russell Branyan. As long as both remain unsigned, it gives the Mariners some leverage in order to sit back and wait for one, or both, to drop their demands for that second year.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:20:18 -0000

by Brian Snyder - AP

Yes, Randy Wolf is a Brewer now.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while remembering that "port" is "left."

Welcome to day one of the Randy Wolf era (FanShot). He'll make $29.5 million over the next three seasons, plus an option for 2010. Reaction to the deal has come from everywhere:

Miller Park Drunk credits the Brewers for signing the best available free agent.
Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet says it's a gamble the Brewers had to take at this point.
Erik Manning of FanGraphs explains why this deal shouldn't be compared to the Jeff Suppan signing.
Jordan also offered his thoughts on that topic, and reasonable expectations for Wolf.
Adam McCalvy noted that Wolf's deal is the third richest for a pitcher in team history.
Jorge Says No! says the Brewers are "going for it" in 2010.
Babes Love Baseball thinks the Brewers overpaid for him.
Aaron Gleeman says he'd rather have the deal Rich Harden signed with the Rangers.
Wolf's contract inspired Rob Neyer to write a two parter on the economics of player salaries.
Meanwhile, Diamond Leung has a quote from Wolf about the divorce situation with the McCourts that might have led to Wolf's departure from Los Angeles.

But, the Brewers weren't done there: They decided to burn a little extra money by overpaying for bullpen help. The result is a two-year, $7.5 million deal for LaTroy Hawkins (FanShot). The move ensures the Brewers will have at least three pitchers in their bullpen earning more than $3.5 million next season (Hoffman, Riske and now Hawkins), as well as two pitchers with closing experience, both of which are 37 or older. Two more links on Hawkins: one good, one bad.

Aaron Gleeman notes that Hawkins has posted a 3.35 ERA over the last six seasons, in 379 innings.
Brian McTaggart quoted Hawkins as being "very disappointed" about leaving Houston, which is pretty much exactly what you don't want to hear from a guy you just threw a lot of perfectly good money at.

Both signings and a few other topics came up in Doug Melvin's MLB Network interview last night, which Tristarscoop chronicled for us, in case you missed it.

Since then, Doug Melvin's had an interesting 12 hours or so. First, a valet lost the keys to his car. Then, after presumably getting a ride back to the meetings, Melvin raised his offer to Craig Counsell. Melvin seems confident a deal will get done, and if he's saying so, that means he's pretty sure. Counsell has also spoken to the Reds, but it doesn't sound like there's much happening there.

Meanwhile, what once looked like a sure thing still isn't done: Mark Mulder remains unsigned, and now the Royals are also showing interest in his services.(h/t MLB Trade Rumors)

The Brewers also filled one more spot on their 40 man roster, selecting Indians lefty Chuck Lofgren in the Rule 5 Draft (FanShot). In a later post, Baseball America called him one of the best stories taken. It sounds like he's had a rough couple of years, but he's a big, athletic lefty who throws hard (90-93), so he's exactly the kind of pitcher the Brewers should be seeking out to work with Rick Peterson.

Can't get enough Triple G? Batter's Box Interactive has some photos from a Gregg Zaun at bat in Toronto last season. Zaun was also the starting point for today's Thursday Thinker: stop back for that at noon.

You still have a few hours to cast your vote for a second baseman on our BCB All Decade Team. Voting for that position closes at 4 today. Prince Fielder officially became the first Brewer elected to the team yesterday. Voting for a shortstop opened yesterday and closes at 4 tomorrow. Voting at third base, perhaps the most ~~depressing~~ interesting choice on the team, will open at 4 today.

Around baseball:

Astros: Acquired reliever Matt Lindstrom from the Marlins for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL, and signed Brandon Lyon to a three year, $15 million deal.
Mariners: Signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. (FanShot) Also re-signed infielder Josh Wilson.
Mets: Re-negotiated their contract with Henry Blanco, due to concerns over the health of his shoulder.
Orioles: Acquired Kevin Millwood from the Rangers for reliever Chris Ray and a PTBNL.
Padres: Released pitcher Eulogio de la Cruz.
Rangers: Agreed to terms on a one year, $7.5 million deal with Rich Harden, with a club option for 2011 and acquired Mike Lowell from the Red Sox for catcher Max Ramirez.
Rays: Acquired Rafael Soriano from the Braves for reliever Jesse Chavez.
Red Sox: Acquired Boof Bonser from the Twins for a PTBNL or cash.
Royals: Released Mike Jacobs and pitcher John Bale
Tigers: Designated pitcher Freddy Dolsi and catcher Dusty Ryan for assignment.

Two former Brewers continue to search for work, and for once I'd rather have Jay Gibbons. Jason Kendall has received a two-year offer from the Royals, while Gibbons is drawing interest from the Dodgers.

While some players are looking for new teams. J.J. Hardy is busy making friends with his. He recently played in Harmon Killebrew's golf tournament, and the Hall of Famer had some nice things to say about him.

Easily the biggest trade at the meetings so far has been the three way deal involving the Tigers, Yankees and D-Backs. A lot of people are burying Arizona for giving up on Max Scherzer, but Patrick Sullivan of The Baseball Analysts and I agree: The Diamondbacks might come out ahead in this deal, trading a pitcher with an unsure future for two that might pitch in their rotation this season. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that the Yankees traded two starters and a center fielder for one player.

Ever wonder what folks in minor league front offices do during the offseason? I don't know, but the Timber Rattlers' premiere episode of The Offseason would suggest they have some time on their hands.

With Jason Kendall gone, I guess we probably won't be talking about plunkings as much, and that's probably ok. With that said, Jeremy Greenhouse of The Baseball Analysts has a look at the probability of getting hit by a pitch, and what matchups and velocities make a batter most likely to get plunked.

It's been a pretty busy week at the Winter Meetings, and the flow of information has been dizzying at times. Just imagine how fast information would flow out if the internet was working.

Still looking for a gift for someone this holiday season? I might have a suggestion for you. Boys of Summer is a documentary chronicling Robert Cochrane and his father's summer long road trip to visit all 30 major league parks. The film is now available on DVD for the first time, with all proceeds going to the Michael J. Fox Foundation to help support research on Parkinson's Disease.

On this day in 1986, the Brewers sent Tim Crews and Tim Leary to the Dodgers for first baseman Greg Brock. Brock would go on to hit .261/.348/.387 over five seasons as a Brewer.

Happy birthday today to Doug Henry, who turns 46. Henry pitched the first four seasons of his major league career (1991-1994) as a Brewer, racking up 61 saves.

Drink up.

Thursday a.m. Rangers stuff

Adam J. Morris — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:13:56 -0000

So, yeah, busy day yesterday.

Jeff Wilson says the Rangers still aren't done, as they want another starting pitcher or two, a catcher, an infielder, and a power bat. I'm not sure why they would want two more starting pitchers, unless you are counting Rich Harden as one of the two...

T.R. Sullivan says the Rangers have reached a tentative deal with the Red Sox on a Mike Lowell for Max Ramirez trade, but reports this morning indicate that nothing is final yet.

For those of you who get all cranky when we talk about the Rangers' financial limitations, you can skip the part after the jump.

Jeff Wilson says that the Kevin Millwood deal was a straight salary dump, a move the Rangers were forced to make in order to be able to afford Rich Harden. Millwood expressed disappointment because he thinks this team is on the cusp of being a playoff team, and he won't be here to experience it.

Over at ESPN Dallas, Ben Rogers echoes a lot of the thoughts we've expressed about how sad it is that the Rangers are handcuffed this offseason financially.

Looked at another way, the Rangers' lack of financial flexibility is costing them Max Ramirez. The inability of the Rangers to spend money on a bat resulted in them having to move Ramirez so that the BoSox would pick up all of Lowell's salary. The Rangers are, for all intents and purposes, selling Max Ramirez for $3-4 million to Boston so they can afford Mike Lowell.

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Former Rule 5 picks include Dan Uggla and our own Johan Santana, so you never know what gems might be found.

Meet the Mets

The Mets pick 7th in today's Rule 5 Draft. Check out Mark's list of potential picks from a few weeks back. MLBTradeRumors also offers up a preview.

Scott Boras says the Mets have the financial resources to sign any player they choose. He's probably right. The organization's real problem is determining which players to sign.

John Harper recently perpetuated the myth that Mike Pelfrey took a major step backwards in 2009, despite evidence that suggests otherwise. Ted Berg and Matt Cerrone weigh in on the topic.

Metstradamus riffs on the debunked Pat Burrell rumor and the possibility of signing Elmer Dessens. This had me laughing:

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Patrick Flood offers up his take on the inevitable Bengie Molina/Mets relationship.

Mets Police comments on the Sports Illustrated All-Decade team, which Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana were named too. MP also implies he would rather have Wally Backman on his team instead of Jeff Kent due to their respective effects on team chemistry. I'll take the probable Hall of Famer.

Around the NL East

Jayson Stark tweets that the Braves are only asking for prospects in return for Derek Lowe.

The Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL.

Federal Baseball wraps up the Nationals activity at the winter meetings.

The Good Phight is holding out hope for a Roy Halladay trade. Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be frightening and probably unstoppable.

Around MLB

The Royals offered Jason Kendall a two year contract. Umm, what?

The Mariners signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Walkoff Walk has some advice for M's manager Don Wakamatsu regarding Patterson.

The Astros signed Brandon Lyon for three years, $15 million. Seems a bit excessive.

Mike Cameron's agent says his client has a special place in his heart for Seattle. Too bad the Mariners already have an awesome center fielder.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden and traded Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for Chris Ray. Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times weighs in.

Thursday Bird Droppings

Camden Chat — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Farewell, Mr. Ray, and thanks for all the ~~hair weaves~~ ~~fish~~ ~~dingers~~ saves.

Browse more photos »

There's a billion articles on the web about the Millwood-for-Ray trade, and lots of discussion here at Camden Chat.

In other news,

The Rangers have agreed to terms with Rich Harden and are close to a deal with the Red Sox that would give them Mike Lowell for minor league catcher Max Ramirez. The Sox are in the mix for Adrian Beltre to replace Lowell at third. Andy Pettitte re-signed with the Yankees for a year. The Brewers bagged Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins. The Astros got closer Matt Lindstrom in a trade with Florida, and are close to signing closer Brandon Lyon. And the Blue Jays are again taking the Orioles sloppy seconds as they signed the car jumping wonder Joey Gathright.

The Mets asked why the world was passing them by.

Florida Marlins: Giants cooling, Orioles warming on Uggla?
"The Orioles aren't going to move Chris Tillman or Brian Matusz, but they might consider parting with prospects like Jake Arrieta, David Hernandez, Jason Berken or Zach Britton. Two from that group probably nets them Uggla." Two out of that group? For Dan Uggla? Pass. -duck

Orioles could become players on Hideki Matsui - CBSSports.com
According to Scott Miller, the Orioles, could become serious players for Hideki Matsui depending on how things play out there with the Yankees and where Matsui might turn next. This is hardly a blurb, and seems like mostly speculation. -zk

Roundup - In Annual Address, Scott Boras Delivers Just the Highlights - NYTimes.com
Scott Boras flaps his gums at the winter meetings, comparing Holliday to Mark Teixeira. -zk

So make a trade already | DailyHerald.com Blogs
These guys are impatient because Andy MacPhail moved faster than Jim Hendry. I'm really, really tired of "fans" who aren't happy unless "something interesting" happens for their team at the winter meetings. These guys would love Schmuck, who feels the winter meetings exist for teams to make a headline-grabbing splash that will sell season tickets. -zk

M's sign outfielder Corey Patterson
Former Orioles (S)Corey Patterson signs a minor-league deal with the Ms. -zk

I never thought it was such a bad little Open Thread. It's not bad at all, really. Maybe it just needs a little love.

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

Dodgers Offseason Path Appears Set

Eric Stephen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 07:01:01 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Juan Pierre may be traded to fill a hole in the starting rotation.

Browse more photos »

Through three days of the winter meetings, the Dodgers haven't made any deals, but we do have a better idea of their plans this offseason. Randy Wolf signed with the Brewers today for $29.75 million over three years, leaving the Dodgers with a sizable void to fill in their starting rotation.

Actually, there are two holes to fill, behind Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, and Hiroki Kuroda. It appears the Dodgers are still in the market for one starting pitcher, but general manager Ned Colletti said he is looking to fill one of the two open rotation slots from within. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com reported:

Colletti said he's comfortable holding the last rotation spot for a Spring Training competition involving James McDonald, Scott Elbert, Josh Lindblom, Charlie Haeger and Ramon Troncoso. Colletti added left-hander Eric Stults to that group he originally listed on Tuesday.

In my mind, Elbert is the favorite of that group, with his electric left arm, but there is plenty of time for that to get sorted out. McDonald had success out of the bullpen (2.72 ERA, 8.70 strikeouts per nine innings), and I can see him returning to that role in 2010, even though I'm not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet. Both Haeger and Stults are out of options, so they will not only be fighting for a starting role at Camelback Ranch, but also will be fighting for their baseball lives.

How the Dodgers fill that other starting rotation slot has yet to be seen, but the Dodgers don't have much room in their budget without getting creative. If the Dodgers wanted to pay a pitcher $10 million a year, they would have either offered Wolf arbitration, or made an offer to him when presented the opportunity by Wolf's agent, Arn Tellem, today. Wolf's deal, coupled with Brad Penny's deal with St. Louis (one year, $7.5 million plus incentives) and the oft-injured Rich Harden's deal with Texas (one year, $7.5 million with an $11.5 million option for 2011), made it clear that most free agent pitchers are simply out of the Dodgers' price range. If they sign a free agent pitcher, it might be someone like a Vicente Padilla and Jon Garland, again. That is, if they come cheaply enough.

Another option to fill the starting pitching void is to trade Juan Pierre. The idea here is to swap Pierre's contract (two years, $18.5 million) for a high-priced pitcher in a swap of inflated contracts, using that money to pay for a position in need rather than for a fourth outfielder. Options here include:

		2009		2010 Projected
Pitcher	2010 Age	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP	Contract remaining
Bronson Arroyo	33	3.84	4.78	4.11	4.49	2010: $11m; 2011: $11m option ($2m buyout)
Aaron Harang	32	4.21	4.14	4.18	4.14	2010: $12.5m; 2011: $12.75m option ($2m buyout)
Paul Maholm	28	4.44	3.83	4.29	4.20	2 years, $11m total, plus $9.75m option for 2012
Nate Robertson	32	5.44	4.55	4.89	4.67	2010: $10m
Jeremy Bonderman	27	only 10 IP		4.43	4.22	2010: $12.5m
2010 Projections from Bill James Handbook					Contract info courtesy of the amazing Cot's

I would have thought Kevin Millwood was another trade option (due $12 million in 2010), but he was traded to the Orioles earlier Wednesday. Maholm may be a pipe dream, as his contract isn't all that onerous, but the Pirates seem interested in Pierre, so maybe there is a fit.

Matching up Pierre with a team directly might be tough, so a three-team trade may be the way to go. In fact, Pierre may be traded to fill a different hole, second base. Steve Henson of Yahoo Sports tweeted this on Wednesday night:

Dodgers are more concerned about 2B than letting on publicly, but 3-way trade tries at offing Pierre while filling 2B aren't working yet.

This is interesting, because in the report by Gurnick, Colletti showed a faith in Blake DeWitt manning the second base next season:

At second base, he's sounding more and more comfortable with DeWitt, although he still hopes to add a veteran from a group of free agents that includes Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Juan Uribe, Jamey Carroll and Felipe Lopez.

"Barring something not on the radar, it will be Blake DeWitt plus a veteran if we started the season today," Colletti said

Whether or not any budget constraints forced this philosophy, Colletti appears to have a faith in the Dodgers' young talent to play a big role in 2010. If you ask me, I think the Dodgers bring back one of Garland or Padilla, and bring back Belliard to caddy for the Blakes -- DeWitt at second and Casey at third. Which means the 2010 Dodgers will look a lot like the 2009 Dodgers in many ways, and the returning cast will have to step up.

Diamond Leung reported that Colletti expressed that same sentiment while showing faith in Chad Billingsley in an interview with Sirius XM:

"Sometimes, you have to make your guys better. You just can’t continue to expect to fill everything from the outside and continue to sign free agents and continue to trade away players. You end up in the same spot more times than not and most of the time worse off than before you started making moves…

The 2010 Dodgers need their guys to be better if they want to stay atop the NL West.

On Rich Harden, Kevin Millwood, Chris Ray, and the Rangers

Adam J. Morris — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 03:08:01 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Texas Rangers starting pitcher Kevin Millwood likes pickles and mustard, mmm hmmm. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

Browse more photos »

This was certainly an interesting flurry of events.

And the 2010 Rangers certainly are a different team today than they were yesterday. Are they better? Not necessarily. But they are different, and I think that the team as it stands today is more likely to make the playoffs than the team that the Rangers had yesterday.

So, Kevin Millwood. He's an Oriole now. His 4 year run in Texas was a mixed bag, with his final two seasons here prefaced by offseasons where his purported re-dedication to conditioning was a big story. It was kickboxing after 2007, Nolan Ryan getting all up in his grill in 2008, and in neither case did there appear to be a big improvement in Millwood's performance.

Bob Sturm, tweeting earlier today, referred to Millwood as a "horse." The problem is, in the second half of 2009, the horse Millwood resembled was Barbaro. I think everyone realized the sub-3 ERA Millwood of the first half of the season was a mirage, driven by a great defense behind him, an exceptionally low BABIP, and a ridiculous strand rate that wasn't going to be sustainable. There was going to be regression to the mean. But Millwood after the All Star Break went way beyond regression, with his performance completely tanking in July and August, at the same time the offense disappeared.

And Millwood fading as the summer progressed shouldn't be an unexpected development...he's had problems staying healthy and on the mound the last three years, and he was 34 last year. He's not a great athlete. He's not a Nolan Ryan or a Steve Carlton, a guy who is a conditioning fanatic. He's not a bad pitcher, but he's also not a horse, a guy you can roll out there for 34 starts (like he gave you in 2006) and count on 7 quality innings. He's just a guy, a LAIE, not the #1 the Rangers signed him to be.

And the reality is, the Rangers probably sold high on him. Millwood posted a 3.67 ERA last season despite having peripherals no better than in his two previous 5+ ERA seasons. In fact, it isn't unreasonable to argue that 2009 was his worst season as a Ranger, in terms of pitching as compared to results...his 4.80 FIP was his worst as a Ranger, his 5.61 tRA was his worst as a Ranger, his K rate was his worst as a Ranger, his K/BB ratio was his worst as a Ranger, and his home run rate was his worst as a Ranger.

And anticipating the "he was pitching to contact and getting more ground balls" argument, his GB/FB ratio was also his worst as a Ranger.

Bottom line, Millwood was solid last year, but not special. He wasn't exceptionally reliable, he faded down the stretch, and, given that he's turning 35 in two weeks, he's a lot more likely to get worse than get better in 2010.

That said, Millwood has value. In particular, he has more value to a team that desperately needs a veteran to eat innings and give the team starts. The Rangers teams of the past, the ones that were looking at Aaron Myette and Ryan Glynn, or the Johns Rheinecker and Wasdin, as its alternatives in the rotation, were the type of team that would have killed for a Millwood, a guy who wasn't great, but was steady and was a solid bet to give you 30 starts a year.

But that's not the 2010 Rangers. The Rangers, as has been talked about at length, have assembled a significant amount of pitching depth in the organization. Looking at rotation options, you've got Scott Feldman, Tommy Hunter, Derek Holland, and Brandon McCarthy as likely candidates to be in the Opening Day rotation. And then you've got Neftali Feliz knocking on the door. You've got Dustin Nippert, who posted a 3.88 ERA in 2009 and a 4.27 FIP, and who looked like he can fill in as a spot starter without embarrassing you. You've got Matt Harrison and Eric Hurley coming back from injuries. And there's guys like Guillermo Moscoso and Luis Mendoza and Kasey Kiker and possibly even Tanner Scheppers and Martin Perez hanging around.

This is a team that, should they have a guy missed a start or six, it shouldn't kill them. And the better your sixth and seventh and eighth starters are, the more it makes sense for you to prefer a higher-ceiling, less reliable starter over the safer pick.

Which brings us to Rich Harden, who I talked about last week, when word first came out that the Rangers were interested in him.

And you know...all the talk about Harden makes it sound like we're talking about Glass Joe as the new Ranger starter. But Harden started 51 games from 2008-09, an average of 25.5 per season. Millwood started 60, an average of 30 per season. The difference between the two the last couple of years isn't as great as one would initially believe. As Lookout Landing pointed out earlier today, Harden has as many starts over the past two years as John Lackey, and no one is freaking out about how signing Lackey would cripple a rotation because he can't be counted on to stay healthy.

That said, Harden also missed most of the 2006 and 2007 seasons, and the only reason he's available on a relatively cheap one year deal (with a team option) is because his health has teams scared off. And his homer rate jumped dramatically last season, causing his FIP to creep above 4 for the year. That was driven primarily by a 15% HR/FB rate, though, which is abnormally high...Harden's xFIP was 3.70, right in line with his career mark of 3.75.

There are no guarantees with any pitcher, especially not one with Harden's injury history. But the track record suggests that when Harden goes out to the mound, he'll be better than any starter the Rangers have had in over a decade. 20 starts of Harden and 12 from Nippert is, I think, significantly better than 32 starts from Millwood. And Harden gives you someone you would feel good about starting in game 1 of a playoff series, something you can't really say about Millwood.

As for Chris Ray...whatever. He's a guy who had a good arm and mixed results, then underwent Tommy John surgery and missed two years. Tampa supposedly really likes him, so he could end up going there for Dioner Navarro, or packaged a la Terrmel Sledge in another deal for another piece in the coming days. If not, he'll likely make $1-1.5 million in 2010 and get a chance to set up Frankie Francisco and be the much sought after power righty arm that the Rangers need in the bullpen.

So, all in all, I like these moves. And yet...there's the fly in the ointment, the big negative elephant in the room that overlays all of this.

The Rangers are a better team with Rich Harden and Kevin Millwood than with Rich Harden and Chris Ray. The Rangers are better with Harden and Millwood fronting the rotation than with just Harden. The Rangers, given the paucity of significant salaries in place, should not be having to dump salary to add Rich Harden.

And yet, that was apparently a prerequisite for a deal. At this point, the signals suggest that the Rangers still have very little money to spend, meaning that a big market team that had a $67 million payroll last year, a payroll that has had a sub-$70 million payroll for 6 years running, and has justified it by saying that the team would spend money when the team warranted it, is apparently seeing its payroll drop to below $60 million for 2010.

2010, the year that the front office has been pointing to when they were planning to have a contender. 2010, the year after an 87 win season, a second place finish, and renewed optimism and enthusiasm about the club.

Instead of jumping payroll to $80 million, instead of adding Harden and keeping Millwood and maybe also getting a Ben Sheets or a Nick Johnson or someone else that could fill a need and contribute to a playoff contender, the team is having to get creative in order to add help while cutting payroll from 2009's levels.

And maybe this is premature. Maybe the team will continue pursuing Ben Sheets, or will go spend the money on a Troy Glaus or a Hideki Matsui or another middle of the order bat that would require just a one year deal, but that would actually, you know, be good.

But it still is kind of depressing that the very exciting news of Harden's addition was only made possible because the team dumped one of the two big contracts it had on the books. It is just another instance of how Tom Hicks has damaged this franchise, and another embarrassing reminder of how this franchise is crippled by having to operate on the cheap.

Cross Rich Harden Off The Wish List

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:03:45 -0000

Rich Harden apparently signed with the Rangers today for one year and $7.5 million, with a 2011 club option for $11.5 million. It's a good deal for the Rangers, as Fangraphs and Lookout Landing note. He was on many Met fans' wish lists, with good reason. Youth, filthy stuff and an astronomical strikeout rate (K/9 of 10.91 in 2009, 9.35 for his career) are some of Harden's positive attributes. The strikeouts would have been particularly welcome on a Mets team which played awful defense in 2009.

Any Harden discussion would be incomplete without mentioning his major negative qualities: susceptibility to injury and high pitch counts, which lead to short starts. While it's true that his injury history is extensive, he's pitched 140+ innings each of the last two seasons. Only two Met pitchers reached that mark in 2009 and none made it to 200 innings. The nature of Harden's deal minimizes risk of wasting money on an injured pitcher. If he tears up his elbow this season, you decline the option, say thank you for the effort and move on. If John Lackey needs to go under the knife in year two of a six year deal, a team is stuck with an aging, injured arm costing somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million a year. High pitch counts are a legitimate concern and in turn will tax a bullpen, but five or six inning starts from Harden are more palatable considering the quality of those innings. 140 innings from Harden and 60 from a replacement level pitcher would potentially be more valuable and certainly cheaper than 200 innings from Jason Marquis or Joel Pineiro.

That the Mets likely weren't in on Harden is not surprising. It appears Omar Minaya is placing a premium on durability, even if it means sacrificing on-field value. The Jeff Francoeur acquisition and reported interest in Marquis are examples. It would be nice to see the Mets go after players who have the potential for big seasons. Harden is precisely that.