SB Nation - Jeffrey Marquez

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 27 Jun 2009 15:54:22 -0000

Christian Marrero

This week:

Daniel Hudson made his AA debut. LIstening to his first start, I was surprised to hear that, on the Birmingham gun, his fastball was frequently registering in the upper 90s. Now, I know the gun there is fast; however, because of Aaron Poreda, I know roughly how much faster it is than reality. And these readings were suggesting that Hudson's fastball was not sitting in the 90-93 MPH range that scouting reports previously had him at but more in the 93-95 MPH range. John Sickels and Keith Law both confirmed this week that Hudson's fastball had gained a few ticks. This certainly helps to explain his success this year, going from A ball to AA in a half season, and also raises his status and ceiling as a prospect.
I remain puzzled that Hudson's Old Dominion teammate Dexter Carter is still in Kannapolis. Guys with K/BB ratios of 94/20 in 78 IP need to be challenged.
The White Sox' two rookie league teams began play this week. The Bristol Sox probably have the most interesting players at this point, as the Great Falls Voyagers are still waiting for the highly drafted college players to arrive. Bristol has two young pitchers drafted out of high school - Nevin Griffith and Steven Upchurch. Drafted in 2007, Griffith missed almost all of last season after Tommy John surgery. He has apparently abandoned the slider, which he credits with causing his elbow problems, and is going to feature his curve and changeup more. Before his injury, these were described as potential plus pitches. His first start was not good - 5 IP, 6 hits, 4 BB, 3 K, WP, HBP - though it probably shouldn't have been unexpected. Upchurch, on the other hand, had a very solid first start: 6 IP, 5 hits, 1 BB, 3 K. The 2008 draft pick is unlikely to spend much time in Bristol before promotion to Kannapolis.
The Voyagers are waiting/hoping for more of the college guys to arrive and start playing, especially the likes of Jared Mitchell and ~~Josh Phegley~~ (update: assigned to Kannapolis), if only for cameos, as there really isn't all that much about which to be excited on the team right now. Picks like RHP Justin Collop (6th), RHP Ryan Buch (8th), OF Nick Ciolli (10th), and CF Kyle Colligan (12th) have been assigned there though, due to the length of time since the end of their college seasons, the pitchers haven't debuted yet.
Speaking of Mitchell, he had an excellent finale to his collegiate career by leading LSU to the College World Series title and garnering the tournament's Most Oustanding Player award. In the three game final, he went 5-13, 3B, HR, 2 BB.
Tyler Flowers: .275/.429/.512. I asked earlier this week how long one can keep a guy with that line in AA. I guess we'll see. Flowers and Dayan Viciedo were both selected to the Futures Game, which is played the day prior to the Major League All-Star game.
Recently promoted Christian Marrero has slotted into Brandon Allen's spot for the Barons nicely: .273/.306/.576 in nine games. The lefty's move to 1B from the outfield appears, at least for the moment, to be permanent so he'll need to keep that slugging up in order for his bat to play at that position.
Brandon Allen, after a torrid start to his AAA career, cooled down significantly this week, as he was hitless in all four games against Louisville to end the week. He has a .258/.258/.419 line in eight games now. To all those who were attempting to infer a link between the timing of his promotion and Konerko's injury (or whatever else), his was merely a deserved promotion for a guy who had spent the equivalent of a full season in AA. He ain't ready for the majors yet.
Jeff Marquez, who missed about a month and a half with elbow problems, returned for the Knights last week and has been far more effective than prior to his injury. In two starts this week, he went 11 IP, 8 hits, 5 BB, 9 K. Still no real evidence, though, of his supposed amazing groundballing abilities.

As always, check the White Sox Minor League Update fanpost on the right sidebar for daily updates and commentary, and to participate in the weekly poll. If you're interested in White Sox minor league updates, follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry.

The Savior Has Arrived: Beckham Called Up

larry — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 03:03:48 -0000

View full size photo »

Apparently the White Sox' patience has run out. Gordon Beckham, the organization's top prospect, is to be called up prior to tomorrow's game and Wilson Betemit is to be designated for assignment.

Beckham spent just seven games in Charlotte and his hitting, which had been very good in Birmingham, was torrid in AAA - .464/.448/.679 - including six doubles. He also played six of those seven games at third base but had three errors.

Gonzales:

"He's going to play," manager Ozzie Guillen said. "Where, we're going to find out. Is he going to play third base every day? I don't think so. But he will get plenty of at-bats. To me, he has to be in the lineup every day and get a good percentage of at-bats."

Guillen said he would bat seventh or ninth.

Merkin also speculates that Beckham will also see time as designated hitter.

Guillen is quoted as saying Beckham will be in the starting lineup tomorrow. He will be making his debut a day short of the one year anniversary of the White Sox picking him #8 overall in last year's draft. Purchase your tickets now, Sox fans - 1:05 start.

more after the jump on the other players directly affected by this.

Lost in this major news, of course, is Betemit who, as has been covered and discussed extensively on SSS, has been awful. With Jeff Marquez on Charlotte's disabled list with bone chips in his throwing elbow and Jhonny Nunez being merely acceptable at Birmingham, the return from the Nick Swisher trade has been unimpressive so far. Betemit may draw interest as a waiver claim due to his past status as a top prospect.

Josh Fields will also be working out at first base as he is likely now the backup to Paul Konerko. Fields did not speak to the media after the game.

This Week in White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 02 May 2009 16:55:57 -0000

Dayan Viciedo

View full size photo »

This week:

Dayan Viciedo may finally be adjusting to American pro baseball. After a putrid start, he's currently 9-26 in his last six games, including a double and two homers. He was initially having trouble with breaking balls, especially the slider. It seems like he's been better at fighting those off recently and, as he sees more fastballs, his power numbers should further improve.
Clevelan Santeliz came off the DL and all he did in his season debut at Birmingham was face four batters and strike all of them out.
Gordon Beckham: .310/.396/.524.
Roster Machinations: Derek Rodriguez was promoted to Charlotte. Justin Cassel moved into the Knights' starting rotation.
Jeffrey Marquez had been atrocious so far this season: 0-4, 14.18 ERA, 13.1 IP, 26 hits, 10 BB, 7 K and a 0.94 GO/AO. I never thought he was a good pitcher but he certainly should not be this bad. So it probably shouldn't be a shock that he was placed on the DL after his last start.
Sox Machine recaps April for Charlotte and Birmingham and Winston-Salem and Kannapolis.
The Intimidators' starting pitching has been putting up some gaudy numbers so far this year. Daniel Hudson leads the group with a 1-2 record, 1.23 ERA, 22 IP, 15 H, 2 BB, 30 K (yes, that walk to strikeout ratio is correct). Roommate Dexter Carter isn't far behind with a 1-0 record, 1.69 ERA, 21.1 IP, 15 H, 5 BB, 23 K. Gregory Infante rounds things out with a 1-0 record, 0.75 ERA, 24 IP, 13 H, 9 BB, 22 K. Charlie Leesman and Garrett Johnson haven't been bad, either. Of course, what has been bad is the hitting in the South Atlantic League this year. As always, keep in mind the context of the numbers you see. Some of these guys are pretty good. But they're probably not that good.
A scout says Jordan Danks has a long-ish swing. Imagine that.
Tyler Flowers: .292/.407/.569. Now, if he could only catch...

As always, check the Minor League Update Fanpost on the right sidebar for daily updates and commentary. Additionally, I twitter updates from the minor league games that I watch/listen to so, if you're interested in that or my other random baseball thoughts, follow me: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry.

Swisher's Effusive, Disingenuous Praise Called Out by Guillen

The Cheat — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 00:25:20 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Browse more photos »

When Nick Swisher was traded, I wrote:

[T]his trade was all about getting rid of the strong personality of Swisher. It wasn't about baseball skill, or money, or the future. It was only about getting rid of a perceived problem for the sake of no longer having to deal with said problem.

There are whispers that Swisher rubbed much of the coaching staff and some of his teammates the wrong way with his outspoken behavior, and, most of all, his pouting when his season turned south. Now that he's no longer a member of the organization, I'm sure there will be plenty of leaks about him being an uncoachable, hard-partying, distraction in the clubhouse.

And even if all of those things are true, this is still a bad trade. The Sox simply didn't get any value in return.

It took a lot longer than I expected -- the White Sox have done some surprisingly good damage control -- but now that Swisher, who's never met a microphone or camera he didn't like, is off to a hot start in the largest media market in the country things are starting to heat up. Swisher apparently did a Q&A with the NY Post (See how hard that was to link. I'm looking at you Trib and Sun-Times.) in which he heaped effusive praise on his teammates and manager. The piece was shown to Ozzie Guillen Sunday, which, of course, elicited a response.

"I heard the same [stuff] on April 20 [last year] about me," Guillen said. "He’s got to say what he’s got to say. He was talking about people he’s only known for two weeks. That’s hard to make that statement when you only know people for two weeks, but that’s Nick.

"I’m not pretending to be the best manager. I never will. But I guarantee that I will manage a lot longer than he will play. That’s all I can say. And I’ve got more friends in baseball than I have enemies. Some people can’t handle the way I manage. It’s not easy. When you manage, you have to deal with 25 to 50 people every year. To make [all of those] people happy, you can’t.

"But it’s easy when you hit .350 or .390. Everybody is a good manager. It’s easy to blame people."

It's hard not to side with Guillen on this one. Swisher wasn't long for Chicago because he rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. But he's an extremely talented baseball player, and it was imperative that the White Sox get some extreme talent in return.

Statistical Prospect Evaluation Primer: Part 3: Pitchers

The Cheat — Sat, 04 Apr 2009 00:45:38 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Kevin Slowey is a product of a Twins system which focuses on throwing strikes.

Browse more photos »

Part 3 in a series. You can read Part 1 here, and Part 2 here.

Pitchers

In the last part, I mentioned that I don't spend too much time looking at a hitter's triple slash line, but with pitchers I take an even more extreme approach; I almost completely ignore ERA. To understand why, you have to fast forward to what we know about pitching at the major league level.

I like to say that you need to do two of three things well to succeed as a major league pitcher; throw strikes (limit walks), miss bats (rack up the strikeouts), and keep the ball in the park (limit homeruns). Ideally, you'd like to do all three, but to have success at the major league level you only need to be able to do two of them at the same time.

As I explained in the Building a Better Projection piece, for the purposes of projection we rely heavily on Fielding Independent Pitching or pitcher-controlled stats. And since what we're doing when evaluating pitching prospects is projecting their future major league performance that's where we'll concentrate here as well.

Control

You can't teach power to a hitter or velocity to a pitcher, but perhaps the most teachable tool in all of baseball is the ability to put the ball in the strike zone. The Twins have built a pipeline of fine, young pitching, which allows them to compete on a medium-sized payroll, thanks to their strike-throwing philosophy. While not as proficient as the Twins, the White Sox, with most of the credit given to Don Cooper, have taught strike throwing at the major league level. Bobby Jenks, Matt Thornton, John Danks, and Gavin Floyd have all lowered their walk-rates while with the major league club.

When I spoke about walk rates in the hitting portion, I advocated the use of BB% or BB/PA, and the truth is that's the most accurate measurement for pitchers as well. But I still use BB/9IP. I'm almost ashamed to admit it. I understand that because of the variable, elastic length of an inning that any measure which relies on innings as a unit of measure will be inherently different from pitcher-to-pitcher. But I don't care. I've used BB/9 forever, and it's served me well.

As a general rule, I don't like to see a prospect have a BB/9 over 3, but I don't pay too much mind to walk-rate in the low minors. I'm looking for a progression in a pitcher's ability to throw strikes, or at least no regression as they face more advanced hitters. Major league hitters are going to spoil more pitcher's pitches, extending at-bats and coaxing more walks than their minor league counterparts, so that minor league BB/9 of 3 can rise to 4.5 in the majors in a heartbeat.

Strikeouts

Since control can be taught, when you're evaluating a pitching prospect, it's all about strikeouts. Again I'll use the more accessible K/9, which I can figure it in my head, over the more accurate K%, but I'll make no more apologies.

The magic number I'm looking for is 1 strikeout per inning or a K/9 of 9 or above. When you get above 9 K/9, that's where you find your aces. Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels had minor league K/9 marks over 12. It wasn't exactly difficult to project future success for those two. It can be much more difficult for prospects who have K/9 marks at or below 9.

K/BB ratio -- I said I'd make no more apologies for using K/9 and BB/9, and here's why. K/BB is once again the best indicator of future major league success, and it doesn't have that pesky elastic-innings problem either. The magic ratio I'm looking for here is 3:1 or above.

Want to know why the Twins have been able to build a pipeline of young pitching? Look no further than the minor league K/BB numbers of their young starters.

Scott Baker -- 4.25
Francisco Liriano -- 3.25
Nick Blackburn -- only 2.85, but 4.27 in AAA
Kevin Slowey -- 6.94
Glen Perkins -- 2.66 (Think there might be a reason he's had trouble staking claim to a rotation spot?)
Boof Bonser -- 2.3 (same as above. Can't get his BB/9 under 3)

A prospect who keeps his strikeouts high and his walks low will find his way to the big leagues. But a prospect with a K/9 below 9 can succeed at the major league level, witness most White Sox pitching; they'll just need to be proficient in other areas, such as...

Groundball rate

When we talk about groundball rates, what we're really talking about is homers. I don't like to pay attention to minor league homerun rates at all for reasons that should become clear in this section.

Using Gavin Floyd as an example, in his last two seasons in AAA (spanning 220 innings) Floyd allowed a total of 18 homers. That's a pretty good total, especially considering he spent a good deal of that time in Charlotte's tiny ballpark. So it should have been a surprise when Floyd gave up 30 in his breakout season, right?

Wrong. Studies have found that major league pitchers on average give up a HR on about 12% of their flyballs allowed. I believe that number is lower in the minors (since they hit fewer HR), but I don't really care to know the specifics. The point is, if you want to know if a pitcher is likely to be homer-prone at the major leagues, look at his groundball rates.

There are a number of different measures for groundballs, and this is where it can get confusing. MiLB.com uses GO/FO, which is a measure of groundouts vs. flyouts, but that doesn't account for all balls in play, only outs. ESPN appears to have lumped balls categorized as line drives in with flyballs, which is how that recent THT article came to some of the wrong conclusions about Danks. Here I like to use GB% (found at firstinning.com) since it's the most accurate measure of a pitcher's groundball tendencies.

GB% is not without its pratfalls, however. First, the groundball rate in the minor leagues is higher than that in the majors. (Again, I'm not sure of the exact measure. But there is small, but noticeable difference.) And because there are 3 batted ball types (GroundBalls, FlyBalls, and Line Drives), 50% isn't the dividing line between a groundball or flyball pitcher. I would put that mark at a GB rate of about 45%.

What I look for, what the White Sox are looking for is guys who get groundball rates in excess of 50%. Coming back to Floyd, he had a groundball rate of 43% in each of his last two seasons in AAA, which explains the 47 homers he's allowed in under 300 innings for the Sox. Meanwhile, Jeff Marquez' groundball rates have been around 55% in his non-rehab assignments, while Jack Egbert has been consistently between 50-55%. The groundballingest of pitchers in the major leagues (Brandon Webb, Derek Lowe, et al) have GB% over 60%.

Conclusion?

If the hitting portion of this exercise could be summed up in two questions, the pitching portion requires three. Does he throw enough strikes? Does he miss enough bats? And What happens when hitters make contact?

By now you're probably going back through this list and thinking to yourself; doesn't Egbert fit these guidlines more than Danks? The answer is yes. So what's the reason Danks is the best pitcher on a major league club while Egbert has yet to get a taste of big league action?

There are two simple answers; Age vs. League, Danks was very young at each level while Egbert is over our guideline ages, and velocity, Danks is a lefty who sits in the low 90's with his fastball whereas Egbert is a right-hander who only touches 90-91 with his stuff. There is one more key difference that I'll illustrate in my final post on this subject.

Up next: wrap-up, and a look at a couple of current Sox major leaguers.

Bartolo Colon Takes "Shaky" First Step Towards Return to White Sox Rotation

The Cheat — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 01:32:26 -0000

Bartolo Colon made a "shaky" spring debut Monday, though I wouldn't classify it a such. Colon, who is coming off minor elbow surgery, struggled with his control and appeared to be throwing more than pitching, especially with his 2-seamer.

I wish we had some radar readings so we really know what he was bringing, but as of yet I haven't seen any. If I was forced to guess, and right now I am, I would say that Colon's 2-seamer was sitting at about 86-87 with good movement (unfortunately too often to the middle of the plate) while his 4-seamer touched 90. Gonzo says Colon was throwing 89, so our guess seems about right. He also showed a slider and a changeup in his 1.2 innings of work.

Colon isn't exactly known for his work ethic, and he tends to build up to max-effort as spring wears on, sometimes he doesn't roll full-speed until the season is in full swing. At this point we have to remember, there are 3 weeks left of spring training, and 4 weeks before the 5th starters spot would be neccessary. So even though the results weren't exactly pleasing, any outing that Colon pitches pain-free at this point is a victory. We'll look for performance and sharpness at the end of camp, and even then it's hard to imagine Colon getting up for an exhibition game.

Does Egbert Have a Shot?

Jack Egbert is making his case for breaking camp with the Sox. While Jeff Marquez has parlayed a mediocre AAA campaign and 5 spring shutout innings against the Cubs into lock status -- He also served up 3 bombs to the Mariners yesterday -- Egbert has been impressive everytime he has taken the mound this spring.

Entering Monday's game, Egbert had yet to allow an earned run in 9 Cactus League innings. He extended that streak to 10 with a 1-2-3 inning in relief of Mark Buehrle, striking out Alex Gordon on an elevated 4-seamer, but ran into a bit of trouble in his second inning of work. Perhaps the best compliment that can be payed to Egbert was that he still looked like a major league pitcher in yielding his first earned runs of the spring. His fastball appeared to have a bit more zip on it, especially the 4-seamer, and the runs he did allow appeared to be a product of poor pitch selection.

Egbert was never really in consideration for the White Sox rotation openings, but he still might have a shot to claim the last spot in the pen. The Sox are going to carry 12 pitchers, which means 7 members of the pen, 4 of which are locks (Jenks, Thornton, Dotel, Linebrink), while two more (Richard and Carrasco) seem virtually assured. That leaves one spot open to be filled by Marquez/Egbert/Wasserman (depending on Colon and Contreras' health, obviously).

Gordon Beckham, Future Major League Star

When the Sox first drafted Beckham, I was content, not ecstatic. I was a bit concerned about his swing. It had a bit of a hitch, a Fields/Anderson loop during the load phase. But I noted his improvement year-over-year, a trait I love in prospects, as a reason to give the Sox (and Beckham) the benefit of doubt. It appears like that was a wise decision.

Three weeks into spring, Beckham is the star of big league camp. He's spraying doubles all over the field, playing multiple positions with ease, and generally looking like he belongs. Most importantly, his swing has been cleaned up. It's more compact, Micheal Young-like. I haven't seen enough to make any judgements about his defense, but overall he looks like a future major league star.

And that's the take-away we should have from the first half of the spring, that it appears Gordon Beckham will be a very good player in a White Sox uniform. It doesn't have to be this year. It shouldn't be this year. But sometime in the near future the Sox will have a real, live, homegrown up-the-middle All-Star-caliber player.

That's good enough for me. I can wait.

Sunday SSS Spectacular White Sox News & Notes

larry — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 03:33:58 -0000

Merkin says it will be Contreras and not Colon who will open the season in the rotation:

I'm just guessing here right now, but I think Contreras will start the 2009 season as part of the rotation, but Colon, who is coming back from an elbow injury, will not but won't be far behind. By the way, I think both Clayton Richard and Jeff Marquez are locks to make the team in some pitching capacity.

C&C are throwing batting practice tomorrow.

Gordon Beckham continues to get a long look at second base, as he is playing the 'B' game tomorrow morning. The beat reporters are tripping over one another to come up with the superest superlatives for the first real prospect they've ever seen while covering the White Sox in Arizona this century. Ever.

In other second base news, Brent Lillibridge will be back from the flu-like to play at SS in the "real" game against Cleveland, while Chris Getz will start at second. Nix is expected back on Wednesday.

In the game against the Dodgers, Beckham went 3-5 with three doubles and, while he wasn't "flawless", like some reporters would like you to believe (notice the throwing error, Dave?), he appears to be taking to second well. Donny Lucy showed why he has a fan club (get your fusilli donny!) with a 2-3 performance, including a home run, in relief of Corky Miller. Gavin Floyd threw four no-hit innings, with a couple of strikeouts and a couple of walks. Brian Anderson was 1-2 with a walk, HBP, a sacrifice fly to score a run, and threw out Doug Mienkiewicz at the plate. That's called diversifying the skill set, honeys.

Box.

Can We Play Someone Else Already? - Cubs vs. White Sox at Las Vegas, Thursday 3/5, 3:05 CT

Al — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 19:00:10 -0000

This is the third Cubs/White Sox matchup in the last six days. These guys are going to get sick of seeing each other -- there will be two more during spring training and then the six during the regular season. That's more than we'll see some NL rivals (the Mets, for example).

Milton Bradley compares himself to Lou:

"Like myself, I think a lot of the things he does, they're not planned, but there's a reason for it," Bradley said Wednesday in Arizona. "He's trying to prove a point. He wants his players to go out there and play with the same intensity and fire that he's showing while he's tossing a base or getting in the umpire's face. Because he means business.

"I understand that. I can respect that. I think they're crazy when they can just struggle and make errors and strike out and give up runs, and then they go get on their cell phone and kick back like nothing ever happened. I can't live like that."

And Lou likes that attitude:

"I can see that," Piniella said. "When you have a reputation, people expect that reputation to continue to resurface. Milton, all he is interested in is helping us win some baseball games and playing baseball. Could there be a little eruption along the way? Possibly. But I'll tell you, I like what I've seen. He works hard. He takes it seriously. And he gives 100 percent. That's all I can expect from players."

Fine with me, too, as long as Bradley stays healthy while giving that hard work.

That link also says that Chad Gaudin has probably pitched himself out of contention for the rotation, as Lou said he seems "more as a spot-starter, middle-reliever type." Today, another of those guys, Aaron Heilman, gets the start against the White Sox' Jeff Marquez. The game is on WGN-TV again, but if you're not near a TV this afternoon, you can hear it via the MLB.com Mediacenter (Sox radio announcers) -- and don't be surprised, when you click that link, it looks different than it did yesterday, they redesigned the page.

Here is the correct MLB.com Gameday link for today -- that is, presuming the Sox are the "visiting" team and the Cubs are the "home" team. If it winds up being the other way, use this alternate version.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Aaron Poreda Pitches Predictably

The Cheat — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 06:42:16 -0000

It's late, so this is gonna be a quick one.

Aaron Poreda made his Chicago-area network debut Wednesday night. Sure, there were six innings of baseball before he took the mound -- Betemit and Konerko went deep, and some other stuff happend -- but the highlight for most Sox fans who frequent this site had to be Poreda's three innings of work to close out the game.

Poreda showed what he had, hitting an unreliable 97 on the WGN gun with his first pitch of the night. He would sit at 92-93 for most of the night. For perspective, John Danks was throwing between 90-95 in the first 3 innings of the game.

Poreda's fastball is as advertised, a plus pitch that can be downright nasty at times. He seemed to have good command of the pitch and showed a desire to attack the inner part of the plate, breaking 2 bats in the first 5 batters he faced. In fact, two of the hits he allowed were jam-shots on inside fastballs.

Unfortunately, that was about all Poreda showed us. He didn't strike anyone out, didn't induce many swing-and-misses, and most importantly, didn't show a second major league pitch. I honestly didn't see a breaking ball (although Larry commented about one in the gamethread), but his changeup left a lot to be desired. You could see him slow his motion on the pitch.

Poreda could probably pitch effectively out of the bullpen this year, and his ability to saw off right-handers might allow him him to be more than a LOOGY. But the lack of a secondary pitch should have him returning to the minors to continue his (lack of) development.

Who Makes up a Poreda-less Pitching Staff?

Right now it's Contreras, Colon, Marquez and Richard fighting for the two final spots in the rotation. If Poreda isn't on the team, Richard figures to be the teams second lefty and primary long-man. Which means that Marquez represents the Sox fall back option should Colon or Contreras be unable to make a speedy recovery.

In other words, go Jack Egbert! He'll need a lights out spring just to get in the conversation. But if he has a strong spring, the Sox have to give him a look... given the alternatives.

Do White Sox Have Surprising Starter Depth?

The Cheat — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 00:37:27 -0000

A little over a month ago, things looked grim for the White Sox starting staff. Sure, they had a solid, young nucleus anchored by Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, but who was going to fill the other two rotation spots?

Javier Vazquez had been traded to Atlanta for a package of prospects who don't figure to contribute in '09. Jose Contreras had ruptured his Achilles tendon late in '08, and given his age didn't seem like a good bet to pitch anytime before the All-Star break.

All references to the Sox rotation included words like "competition" followed by uninspiring names like Jeff Marquez and Lance Broadway. The Sox projected rotation, even with the solid front three, appeared to be that of a 4th or 5th place club.

Yet as we sit here 4 games into spring training, I'm surprisingly optimistic about the Sox rotation picture.

What's changed?

Sox sign Bartolo Colon -- Even though we all know he's going to get hurt at some point, even though he had his elbow "cleaned up" in the off-season, even though he has yet to throw live BP to hitters this spring, I have faith that Colon will contribute positively to the Sox rotation... for a limited time.
Contreras is a miraculous healer -- Nobody expected Contreras to contribute before the All-Star break, nobody but Contreras, that is. He "ate lots of fish" in the off-season and obviously trained hard, doing what he could, to drop a reported 30 pounds from last year, and now is tentatively scheduled for live action mid-March. There's a possibility he could open the season in the rotation.
It's Spring -- It's hard not to be optimistic at the beginning of spring. Anything's possible.

The addition of the two old guys coming off injuries suddenly gives the Sox some starting depth. Granted, they're adding a couple more question marks to a pile of candidates that already sound like a round of Jeopardy. Who is Jeff Marquez? But now it seems they'll only have to count on the young, unproven guys to provide 20-45 starts instead of the 60+ that would be required from filling the final two spots of the rotation.

Who's got the best shot?

Aaron Poreda -- The White Sox top pick of the '07 draft opened his spring by serving up a homer and a single to a pair of major leaguers, but retired the next 6 batters he faced in a "B" game. He has plus command of a plus sinking fastball that sits in the low 90's, but the rest of his pitches lag behind. He can probably succeed from the bullpen as a 1-pitch pitcher, but needs to refine his secondary offerings to claim a rotation spot.

Coming North: 55% chance (as a starter: 25%)
Clayton Richard -- Richard helped his chances a great deal late last season by putting up a solid start in Yankee stadium, and cleaning up Vazquez' final two messes. He's a lot like Poreda in that he throws from a lower 3/4 slot and relies on good sink from his fastball, which doesn't quite have the zip of Poreda's (sitting just below 90). Richard seems to have a knack for adding and subtracting off his fastball with good results, but also lacks consistency with his slider and change. He seemed to take a step forward with his slider against lefties down the stretch, making him the clubhouse favorite for LOOGY duties.

Coming North: 95% chance (as a starter: 35%)
Jeff Marquez -- Derisively called [Starter Candidate 5] during our depression regarding the Sox starter prospects, Marquez doesn't have the recent minor league track record to support his name being mentioned here. His name is here, however, based on a reported 94 MPH fastball with good sink. I'll allow that Marquez' strikeout rate was hurt last season by nagging injuries, that the Sox scouts see something that I don't, but until he starts to show some ability to miss minor league bats, he shouldn't be among the lead candidates for a rotation spot.

Coming North: 40% chance (as a starter: 15%)
Jack Egbert -- Slowed by elbow soreness last spring, Egbert seemingly missed out on his chance to break into a big league rotation. He shook off a slow start in AAA to post his usual excellent K/BB/IP numbers over the final three months, but saw a spike in his HR rate in Charlotte's small park. Egbert will not wow you with his stuff. He's fringe-average with everything but a plus changeup. But he's got a funky hitch in his delivery (think: Chris Young, the pitcher) and has never really had a problem missing bats or keeping the ball on the ground. In many ways he's the opposite of Marquez, a guy without the stuff to wow scouts, but a minor league record that screams Give Me A Shot, You Might Like The Results.

Coming North: 15% chance (as a starter: 5%)
Lance Broadway -- The Sox 2005 first rounder is a bit like Egbert in that he has underwhelming stuff and good "pitchability." Though unlike Egbert, Broadway hasn't been able to translate that into the type of minor league success that precedes a solid major league career. Sox fans have been treated to two successful major league starts from Broadway, but those seem like flukes given the ridiculously high hit-rate he's allowed in the high-minors.

Coming North: 7.5% chance (as a starter: 2.5%)
John Van Benschoten -- The Pirates' failed top pick (8th overall) in the 2001 draft has a career ERA of 9.20 over 19 starts. Only the Pirates could manage to give that many starts to a guy who proved to be so totally unprepared for the major leages. Van Benschoten's minor league record isn't terrible, which is probably why the Sox bothered to pick him up this winter. I suppose there is a chance, albeit a slim one, that Don Cooper can work a little magic and make him over into an effective pitcher.

Coming North: 2.5% chance (as a starter: 1%)

I may have talked myself back down to a more pessimistic (read: reasonable) position in writing those capsules, but I still feel pretty good about one of the unproven starter candidates being able to step up his game. The bigger questions for me are, Who will it be? And will more than one of them be needed?