SB Nation - Shea Hillenbrand

Living in the Limelight: Gregg Zaun's Free Agent Value

devil_fingers — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 17:27:28 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

I'm having a hard time locating your Z-Game, Wes.

I'm worn out. I don't have anything to add to the playoff discussion, and it's still weeks until baseball-databank, etc. are ready to make things available. I have other stuff in the pipeline, but for now, in honor of his awesome Rogers Sports Net commentaries on the playoffs (and since we have some catcher defense numbers to go on for 2009), let's take a look at the potential free agent value of one of my favorite players (and I suspect he's a favorite of many others): Gregg Zaun. Are you ready to bring your Z-Game?

Gregg Zaun

#9 / Catcher / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 5-10

Weight: 205

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Apr 14, 1971

I'm not sure what the market is like for catcher this offseason, but it seems like every year, guys like Paul Bako and Jose Molina get jobs. You know, guys who can't hit a lick, but have a reputation as "good glove men" or allegedly can "calls a good name," things which always seem to attach to catchers that...can't hit. While its true that defense is very important, and that catcher defense is hard to quantify, this might be a case where many clubs don't realize that their catcher also has to hit, and moreover, that even without injuries to their starter, that the backup is going to see significant time. Only four catchers started more than 130+ games this season at the position, and only 8 started 120+. So having a decent backup at the position is arguably more important there than at any other position, since you pretty much know that your start isn't going to be available for at least 40 games at that position, even if he's healthy.

Gregg Zaun, of course, became famously known years ago as the Practically Perfect Backup Catcher©. But, as the inventors of this notions discovered, given the general hitting ability (or lack thereof) among catcher, Zaun was actually a pretty decent starter. This ways years ago... Zaun is now advanced in age, and seems destined for a series of one-year contracts. But what is is true talent level?

Hitting: Zaun's not a horrible. He's not what he used to be, of course, but a .344 career OBP is nothing to sneeze at, especially from a catcher. What do we think his true wOBA talent is at the moment? From 2006-2009 his wOBAs have been .351, .324, .316, and .344. Adjusting for age, taking a weighted average and regressing to a league average (weighted by year and PA) wOBA of .330, we get a true talent level of a .325 wOBA, or about -2 runs (2 runs below average) per 700 PA.

Fielding: Catcher fielding is tough to quantify. For 2009, I've used my own numbers cited above. For 2005-2008 I've used Rally's numbers, prorated. I've then combined then with the Fans Scouting Report, and given a bit more weight to the FSR then I usually do, to take into account the problematic nature of the statistics. Zaun wasn't bad this season, being a bit above average, although Rally has him as being around 6-7 runs below average (prorated) in each season 2005-2008. The Fans are harder on him -- my translations have him as. -1.5 this season, -8 in 2008, -9 in 2007, and -4 in 2006. With regression of the numbers and the FSR combined, he seems like a -4 defender per 162 games.

Adding it all together: -2 hitting -4 fielding +12.5 positoin +25 AL replacement level * .75 playing time = 23 WAR - 0.5 aging penalty = 1.8 WAR player in 2010.

Not bad at all, considering Zaun made only $2M this pas season, and seems unlikely to get a raise. If, as usual, guys like Zaun go for cheap, some team is going to get a good deal on a part-time catcher who's defense isn't great (but isn't dreadful) and can get on-base. Not a bad backup for, say, Matt Wieters, huh?

They can't all be Joe Mauer, Geovany Soto, Victor Martinez, or even Yadier Molina. But they don't all have to be Miguel Olivo or Jason Varitek or even Rod Barajas, either. Let's see who's smart.

Help me, Giants Fans! With Grumblings on Rios (sigh), Thome, and none on Strasburg

devil_fingers — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 20:10:28 -0000

A (self-promoting) reminder: Only does Driveline have it's own Twitter feed, but you can also follow me, devil_fingers, on Twitter as well for additional cleverness. For example, check this recent awesome tweet from me. That's the kind of exclusive brilliance you'll get pretty much every day if you follow me.

Help me, Giants fans and followers! I'm working on batting order optimization stuff for the Giants, but I'm a bit flummoxed about what the starting outfield is when everyone is healthy. I know that managers don't always put the best players out there, but I want to use the guys who are the nominal starters and optimize that group rather than argue about who "should" be starting. The outfield I have at the moment is Fred Lewis (LF), Aaron Rowand (CF), and Randy Winn (RF). But these guys haven't played much together recently. What's gong on? What's up with Eugenio Velez getting so many starts recently? What is Nate Schierholtz's role? Are the other guys hurt, just getting more rest? Is it okay if I assume that Lewis-Rowand-Winn is the primary starting OF down the stretch. If not, who should it be? Yes, I've looked around the internet, and just can't figure it out. I guess I'm too dumb. I'd really like it to be Lewis-Rowand-Winn given the time and effort I've spend estimating their baserunning and GDP skills ( also happen to believe this gives the Giants the best chance ot win), but if I have to make changes for Schierholtz and/or (shudder) Velez, I will. To repeat, I want to know who likely will play, not who should play.

After the jump: notes on some (somewhat) recent notes from Jayson Stark (Strasburg-free content!).

Rios the Underachiever: Sorry come back to Alex Rios after the topic's been beat into the ground on the internet the last week or so, but I when I read Stark's column, I couldn't help myself. It seems like there's a higher than usual amount of quotes about player "attitude" in quotes from (predictably) anonymous players, executives, and scouts in this Stark column. I'm not going after Stark on this one. It's his job to report this stuff. Without going through all of it (predictable "John Smoltz would be a great veteran influence on a young team!" and "Vincente Padilla is a loose cannon!" stuff), what caught my eye were the quotes on the recently-waived-and-claimed Alex Rios. Here are three quotes from ex-teammates from Stark's column followed by one from a scout:

• "He's not a winning-type player. He's a guy who just doesn't have that burning desire to win, or be great."

• "He was a guy who just didn't go after it. He'd be sleeping in his locker 10 minutes before he had to go out on the field. And not just once."

• "He wasn't the same player after he got that [seven-year] contract. It sure seemed like he was a lot more motivated when he was looking for a contract than he was since he got the contract."

Meanwhile, scouts we surveyed seemed dubious, too.

"This guy should be a perennial 30-30 [HR-SB] guy," said one. "But to me, he's a classic underachiever. If Ozzie takes the wrong approach, he's going to lose him. He's a guy you've got to go real slow with. But whether Ozzie has that kind of patience, boy, I don't know."

As tired as the "the guy just doesn't care" stuff is, the saber-backlash against it is also a bit played out. I don't want to totally dismiss the personal accounts of people in the game. Still, I'm curious. Who are the ex-teammates? Are they still with the Blue Jays? Maybe it's guys who played with him on Toronto but aren't there any more (Scott Rolen, Internet Sensation Gregg Zaun (a d_f favorite for a long time)? Former Locker Room Leader and Dry Erase Board Poet Shea Hillenbrand? When I hear phrases like "winning-type player" the first thing I think of is Willie Bloomquist's signing with the Royals... but that's another dead horse. Maybe Rios is sleeping in his locker because of "flu-like symptoms" (ahem). But the best one is the ex-teammates who said Rios wasn't the same after the new contract. The contract was signed in April 2008 (the beginning of the season). Here are Rios' seasonal WAR values from 2006 through 2008: 3.3. in 2006, 4.6 in 2007, and 5.5 in 2008. So after he "wasn't the same guy," he was among the best outfielders in baseball.

I remember hearing a lot of the same things about Robinson Cano who, after a 5 win 2007, got an extension before the 2008 season, then had a down season. Everyone said it was because they gave him the extension too early and that he backed off. Well, what do you know, still living off the guaranteed money, Cano has bounced back big time this season.

Maybe these guys got complacent or maybe they didn't. It will be interesting to watch. To me, it seems like Rios is just having a down year, and that the best bet is that he's around a 3.5 WAR player going forward (with the "normal " 0.5 WAR a year decline). I guess we'll see. Maybe he'll return to 2008 form, and we'll get a string of "change of scenery" or "Ozzie's a motivational genius!" stories. You know, because it couldn't just be that he was that good all along and 2009 was a deviation...

Thome (and friend): To end on a more positive note Stark notes that despite his age, Jim Thome still looks to be one of the better free agent DH options out there in free agency. And, hey, when I was doing some early projections for 2009-10 free agency, guess what? Thome was tied for the best 1B/DH out there at about 2.4 WAR.

Who was Thome tied with? You guessed it, your hero and mine

Russ F---ing Branyan

Baseball Stadiums And You

Eric Stephen — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 17:06:54 -0000

Watching the Dodgers at another stadium is fun, especially when they win.

View full size photo »

Yesterday, Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts took his first trip to AT&T Park in San Francisco, and what followed from that in the comments was a nice discussion of various ballparks people have attended. It made me do some digging and reminiscing about the stadiums I have been to. What better way is there to spend the off day today than to look back at all the stadiums you have been to? Feel free to give us your ballpark memories in the comments.

Outside of Dodger Stadium, here is my list:

Angels Stadium

I have been here on numerous occasions, but the few that stick out for me are these:

July 18, 1991: This game was one of the reasons I almost never leave early. I was 15, attending the game with both of my older brothers, and thus not exactly in full control of the transportation opportunities. Once Albert Belle broke a 1-1 tie in the top of the ninth off Bryan Harvey, my brothers started to get up and leave. Stunned, and without a ride home if I stayed, I had to leave too. By the time we got to the car, it was 4-1 Indians, which had justified the decision by my brothers...until, that is, the Angels stormed back for four runs off four Indians pitchers (including former and future Old Friends Shawn Hillegas, Jesse Orosco, and Jeff Shaw) to win, 5-4.

August 8, 2000: Sitting one deck up behind home plate, I got to see the tremendous movement on the pitches from Pedro Martinez at his peak, which was a treat. The Angels somehow scratched together two runs to beat Pedro that night.

October 16, 2005: The White Sox won the pennant by taking Game 5 of the ALCS, as Jose Contreras pitched the fourth straight complete game of the series for Chicago. The final out of the series was an unassisted groundout to Old Friend Paul Konerko. The highlight of the game for me was seeing a family friend -- a huge Notre Dame fan -- at the stadium and showing him my USC shirt one day after the Leinart Sneak / Bush Push game.

Petco Park & Qualcomm Stadium

I lived in San Diego for the better part of 14 years, and saw numerous games here. The Dodgers never seem to do well with me in attendance in San Diego, as they are 7-19 lifetime (they did win on July 3 this year though, so I'm on a hot streak). Two games that stood out:

June 11, 1993: The very first game I went to in San Diego. Kevin Gross pitched eight scoreless innings, but the Dodgers -- including rookie Pedro Martinez -- blew a 4-0 lead in the ninth, and the Padres won 5-4.

September 30, 1995: This was the first time I saw the Dodgers clinch anything, as they won 7-2 behind Hideo Nomo to clinch the NL West over the Rockies (who would win the Wild Card). There were quite a few Dodger fans at the park that night.

Coors Field

July 27, 2000: I have only been to one game in Denver, and it was during a family reunion in Colorado. My cousins and I got picked up at the airport and went straight to the stadium. This game was nearly four hours long, yet only nine innings. The Dodgers won 16-11, behind the greatest game of Alex Cora's life. Cora had two home runs, and a double that hit high off the wall.

Chase Field (Bank One Ballpark)

I have been to three games here, only one of which was against the Dodgers.

July 24, 1999: I made the unwise decision to drive to Phoenix from San Diego and back in one day, and was rewarded with Brian Anderson outdueling Darren Dreifort. The D-Backs rode home runs by Steve Finley and Bernard Gilkey to a 3-0 win.

August 22, 2003: The only no-hitter I ever saw, only it wasn't a no-hitter. Carlos Zambrano of the Cubs allowed no hits into the eighth inning, then with two outs future Old Friend Shea Hillenbrand was awarded an infield single even though it was painfully clear from my nosebleed seats that he was out at first base. Zambrano got the next three batters out, so he has a no-hitter in my mind.

AT&T Park

September 30, 2006: I took a detour on my way home from a business conference to see my first two games in San Francisco. The first game was the next-to-last day of the season, and Greg Maddux beat the Giants to clinch a playoff spot for the Dodgers (they would end up as the Wild Card, although at this point that was undetermined). Thanks to Stub Hub, I was sitting in the same row as many of the Dodger family section, including Mia Hamm, Russell Martin's dad, and Carolyn Hughes (who is stunning in person, by the way).

Oriole Park at Camden Yards

August 23, 1996: I have been to a total of four games at Camden Yards, and truthfully none of them really stand out as memorable games, but the park is awesome. This game was a 2-0 Angel win, behind home runs from Chili Davis and Jim Edmonds, but I mostly picked this game because I forgot David Wells was once an Oriole.

Network Associates Coliseum

May 12, 2000: This is a late-inning Matt Stairs home run of which I actually have fond memories, and the only reason was that there are few things better than calling the guy who has a closer who just blew a save in your fantasy league -- in this case Kaz Sasaki of the Mariners -- and letting the crowd noise do the talking.

Safeco Field

October 1, 2004: This game was memorable because Ichiro Suzuki broke the single-season record for hits in a season with his 258th hit, in the first inning. Ichiro, who broke George Sisler's xx-year old record, added two more hits in this Friday night game, and went on to collect two more over the season's final weekend to settle the record at 262 hits.

Wrigley Field

June 4, 2003: My only trip to Wrigley was for a night game, but it was still a great experience. There are really only a few lights there, so it has a surreal effect of having the stands dark and basically only the field lit up. Its almost like watching an outdoor play. This game was the day after Sammy Sosa got ejected for having a corked bat, and the Cubs' faithful, including Jesse Jackson, gave Sosa a rousing ovation before his first at-bat. Five future Old Friends started this game: Julio Lugo, Marlon Anderson, and Toby Hall for Tampa Bay; Hee Seop Choi and Paul Bako for Chicago.

That's my list. A total of 10 stadiums (including Dodger Stadium, and counting both San Diego parks as one). What's yours?

Welcome Bobby Abreu to L.A. of Anaheim

Rev Halofan — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 23:39:24 -0000

In the absolute STEAL of the offseason, the Angels acquired BOBBY ABREU, a Left-Handed bat who can take a pitch with the best in baseball.

Bobby Abreu had 73 Walks in 2008 - that is 11 more than the Angels' club leader Chone Figgins. Add in Abreu's 180 hits in 156 games and consider that he will be DH quite a bit here and be rested AND is underpaid in a contract year and motivated to produce for this team.

Adam Dunn has never played in the American League, he had malcontent written all over him with no desire to DH or even play 1B. Do not be sad that we are not paying this terrible glove, whiny demeanor and strikeout expert the $10 million a year for two years that the Nationals are.

Now let's be clear here... I am not a blindly optimistic fan of offseason signings.

Here is my embittered TAKE ON THE MATTHEWS signing.

I was spot on about the TERRIBLE SIGNING of Shea Hillenbrand.

My confusion over the Steve FINLEY ACQUISITION was justified as well.

So, take it from me (and my immediate enthusiasm from when we signed VLADIMIR GUERRERO), the signing of Bobby Abreu for the 2009 season is the best deal any team made this offseason, and it puts us in as great a position to kick as much ass as possible!