SB Nation - Bartolo Colon

Starting Pitchers: Damaged Goods Available

Jesse — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:33:46 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

The Twins now have approximately $62 million committed to eight players who are under contract for 2010, and with J.J. Hardy's estimated arbitration salary likely somewhere around $6 million Minnesota will have approximately $17 million to shell out to their arb-eligible players. Even with a payroll which would open the year at over $80 million for the first time in frachise history the organization is still in a position to add some payroll. How much? Probably not too much. But with third base, second base and two rotation spots up for grabs there's no doubt the front office will continue on their quest to improve the team.

Minnesota has picked up a bit of a stigma as an organization that likes to rely on bargain-bin veterans to flesh out their roster, and there hasn't been a shortage of that philosophy applied to the starting rotation over the last few years. Do your ears still flush red when you think of Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson? Or maybe Livan Hernandez still has you a bit baffled? Those moves, at the time, were railroaded for the quality of the player rather than the organization's decision to bring in veteran help, although there was also a strong belief that a rotation centered around Johan Santana, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker would be just fine.

The front office agreed with us last winter, and they stayed fully in-house when constructing their rotation.

Things can change a lot in the span of a year. An area of strength going coming out of 2008 is a bit of a weakness, or at the very least not nearly as deep as we thought it would be, coming out of 2009. For a team that will always look to get the most value for their dollar, if they do choose to supplement the rotation in the free agent market, their highest reward scenarios might center around these guys. Read all about them after the break.

Rich Harden

#40 / Pitcher / Chicago Cubs

Height: 6-1

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Nov 30, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Rich Harden	9-9	27	26	0	0	0	0	141.0	122	74	64	23	67	171	4.09	1.34

26 starts in 2009 and 25 starts in 2008--not bad. Then there were the 13 starts in '06 and '07 combined, with 19 starts made in '05. In fact, in Harden's six-plus star-crossed seasons in the majors he has had exactly one full season: 2004.

A couple of back injuries, a strained left oblique and a rap sheet full of right-arm issues, Harden's inability to keep himself on the mound isn't exactly a secret. Which is why he's even on this list. Anyone who can strike out more than a man per inning while allowing less than a hit per inning, with that kind of fastball and that kind of stuff, is a guy who's makeup has "Ace" dripping out of every pore.

This past season Harden missed 19 games in May and June due to issues with his back, before coming back and eventually being shut down at the end of September because of his pitching arm. Again.

Obviously he's a risk, but that's why I wanted to talk about these guys. The oblique strains don't bother me--it's the problems (plural) that Harden has had with his rotator cuff and his UCL. His mechanics aren't exactly smooth and without constant training to strengthen and stabalize his cuff I'm worried he could have to resort to Tommy John surgery at any time. But I'm not a doctor.

Harden is likely to garner a lot of guarded interest this off-season, and in spite of his injuries and high pitch count innings could still receive multi-year offers that would be worth double-digit millions easy. Naturally I'm not opposed to the Twins chasing him and signing him to a deal as long as it's done right. While the Twins may not be able to guarantee more money than most of the other clubs out there, offering him a low base with a number of achieveable incentives for games started and innings pitched could make a deal at least tempting.

My offer: Two years with team option for year a third. 2010: $4 million base ($500K for 12, 17, 22, 27 and 32 starts; $500 K for 100, 125, 150, 175, 200 innings pitched; $9 million possible; $1 million buyout option if less than 100 innings pitched). 2011: $6 million base, same incentives. 2012: $10 million base, same incentives, $1 million buyout.

Ben Sheets

#15 / Pitcher / Milwaukee Brewers

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 18, 1978

Sheets didn't pitch at all in 2009, and at two years older than Harden would be 32 in 2010. His rap sheet of injuries is even more varied than the Cubs ace, with long stretches of time missed for back injuries, finger injuries and, of course, right arm injuries. This last time around he's had flexor tendon surgery and, if you listen to his agent, would be ready for spring training.

He doesn't strike out quite as many guys as Harden but he still allows less than a hit per inning, has better control and is far more efficient with his pitches. Prior to this last surgery anyway. Like Harden his fastball is mid to upper-90's, and his breaking balls can break your knees. Prior to this last surgery anyway.

Sheets made 31 starts and pitched 198 innings in 2008 before missing all of '09, but from '05 to '07 he wasn't pitching full years either. From the ages of 23 to 25 though, which may be where some of these problems began for a guy who was at the time a younger pitcher, Sheets made 102 starts and threw more than 670 innings. You could argue he was over-worked, although by the time a guy hits his mid-20's he should be able to handle a full load. I tend to lean away from the over-worked arguement.

Where I see Harden landing with a more high-profile team who is willing to take a chance on him and spend a little more ching, Sheets is the option who already looks like he'll appeal to everybody. Second-tier teams (like the Twins) who still have a little wiggle room might run straight for the former Brewer to avoid getting drawn into a process with Harden.

My offer: One year with a team option for a second. 2010: $3 million base ($500 K for 11, 22 and 33 starts; $500 K for 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings; $7 million possible). 2011: $5 million base, same incentives, $500K buyout.

Erik Bedard

#45 / Pitcher / Seattle Mariners

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Mar 06, 1979

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Erik Bedard	5-3	15	15	0	0	0	0	83.0	65	29	26	8	34	90	2.82	1.19

Bedard had arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder back in August, repairing what had been a spot of general disrepair. A torn labrum was the main issue, but the area apparently needed a good clearing. Apparently he'll be ready for the beginning of the season, but it's the second time in as many years where he made just 15 starts.

His stuff, just like the stuff of Harden and Sheets, qualifies him as an ace. He can be a dominant strikeout pitcher at times, although a little streaky even when healthy and not as efficient with his pitches as Sheets. What had been very low fly-ball numbers increased slightly in Seattle, but his plus fastball and plus breaking ball continued to be his best pitches and were seemingly unaffected.

The biggest issues with the former Mariner and Oriole enigma are his consistency and, just like the other two guys on this list, his inability to stay healthy for a whole season. His control tends to stray at times as well.

My offer: Identical to Sheets' offer.

Conclusions

Clearly there are more guys on the market than these three who could qualify as damaged goods. Mark Prior is attempting a comeback, Bartolo Colon is still floating (or sinking) around out there somewhere and even a guy like Noah Lowry has some appeal. But these three guys are the creme of the crop, because they all have the ability to be that elusive Ace pitcher.

Is there a safer option between the three? Which guy would you prefer, if any?

Poll

Which of these three pitchers do you prefer?

Rich Harden

364 votes

Ben Sheets

218 votes

Erik Bedard

161 votes

None of the above

89 votes

832 votes | Poll has closed

Why Omar Minaya Failed And What It Means For The Future

Sam Page — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:00:22 -0000

On July 27, 2002, Omar Minaya, then General Manager of the Montreal Expos, traded Lee Steven, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore, and Cliff Lee to Mark Shapiro's Indians for Bartolo Colon and Tim Drew.

In 2002, Major League Baseball owned the Expos. The offseason before, the Expos had narrowly avoided contraction, because the Twins, the other team in line for contraction, had another year on their lease of the Metrodome. In a month the league would agree to a new collective bargaining agreement that barred contraction, but at the time it still seemed a possibility. So MLB's proxy GM, Minaya, looked for a player to maybe help the Expos win a Wild Card berth, a parting gift for Montreal.

One of the many front-office personnel the Expos shed under their reorganization by MLB was Tony LaCava, their farm director. He jumped to the Indians as a cross-checker. When Omar Minaya called Mark Shapiro about Bartolo Colon, Tony LaCava handpicked the prospects the Indians would receive. When the trade was announced, Shapiro, like Bill Smith would be six years later, was denounced as a young GM over his head. It also marked the first time, Minaya got "his guy" in a trade.

I recall this point in baseball history because it has much to do with why both of these men are currently employed as general managers. Both of these general managers are also coming off 90-loss seasons in the wake of playoff aspirations. Omar Minaya and Mark Shapiro, however, couldn't be more different.

Omar Minaya is a former pro-baseball player, drafted out of high school. Early in Minaya's tenure with the Mets, his success was championed as an exemplar of old-fashioned roster construction. Before Minaya lost "his guys," the process entailed conference call between his scouts, Sandy Johnson and Tony Bernazard, and his paperwork guy, John Ricco. This franchise doesn't just contrast the careful calculation of other front offices, it advertises the fact: "Paperwork, that's false hustle. It takes away creativity. People who are into paperwork are into covering their asses, so if things go wrong they can point to all the work they did."

No team evidences false hustle better than the Indians. Mark Shapiro graduated from Princeton and has a reputation as one of the smartest GM's in baseball. Like Minaya, Shapiro surrounded himself with men of similar background--his sidekick Chris Antonetti is a Georgetown man. The Indians under Shapiro have developed a process, which involves a lot of "paperwork," most famously, the proprietary DiamondView system, supposed to quantify a players' holistic value. As Antonetti described the goal of DiamondView: "There's still this level of variability, but we've reduced it to the smallest level we can." The Indians, the front office, are the progressive group many Mets fans clamor for, but the Indians, the team, are the 90-game losers Mets fans are sick of watching.

Therein is an interesting point of comparison: how did these two seemingly polar-opposite executives, who launched each other's career with the most lopsided trade of the decade, end up at a similar point? Of course, there's no easy answer--'They both forgot to hit the win button!'--and the two situations are, to an extent, unique. Still, one would expect the American League's smartest GM and the National League's highest payroll to battle for the playoffs, not the sixth pick in the first-year player draft.

A recent post at Let's Go Tribe entitled "Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro" came up with an answer, thought not a completely comfortable one. The article was the last in a series of posts on why, obviously, everyone should be fired, so there's a sense the author is playing devil's advocate. Still, he raises an interesting point about the nature of the GM's job, and this article is largely an addendum to it, so give it a read too. The crux of his argument and the cliff notes version of the post is neatly summarized here:

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Jay argues that evaluating talent, if not innate, is at least a skill in and of itself. The Colon-trade was Shapiro's signature move, but LaCava, the scout, handpicked the players he would receive. The laundry list of players Shapiro has acquired from horse-trading is impressive, but none match up to Lee-Sizemore-Phillips. In fact, with Huntington and LaCava long gone, is it coincidence that the returns on Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez were so underwhelming?

Maybe, but I am more interested in the way this situation runs counter to the assessment I constantly hear, and occasionally have given, of Omar Minaya: "He's a great scout and evaluator of talent, but is too sloppy with resources. The Mets would be better suited with a more statistically-inclined GM." Is this Shapiro/Minaya comparison a two parts to whole situation, where one lacks the scouting acumen, the other a supercomputer called DiamondView?

First, consider Minaya's scouting reputation. Starting out as an international scout with the Rangers, he signed Sammy Sosa. That's the kind of signing you can hang your hat on, and Minaya has, as the other players he signed include non-entities: Chris Colon, Ruben Mateo, Jorge Toca, and Timo Perez(!). He also signed Fernando Tatis and Joaquin Benoit, who became pretty good players. Still, including my performance-enhanced namesake, not exactly the greatest list in the world, but a good one.

This reputation comes equally from his supposed ability to "identify players who can help the Mets" and get them, irrespective of costs. It sounds basic, but seemingly describes whatever Shapiro lacked when deciding "whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood," as Jay says. Call them Minaya's guys, as in "Omar got his guy" or Minaya's favorite synonym for person.

It started with his two biggest free-agent pick-ups: Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. Pedro's talent was obvious, but the contract was a minor disaster as he was injured through most of it. Minaya claimed that Pedro "made the brand," i.e. made the Mets more attractive to international free agents, but the jury is still out on that one. His other big signing, Carlos Beltran, will undoubtedly go down as the biggest success of his tenure. Beltran, one of the few true five-tool players left in baseball, has been worth significantly more than his $18M/year. It's unclear to what extent Minaya predicted, or even knows, that to be true, as he likely just sought to get Beltran for the best price he could, without any precise estimation of his value. In fact, Beltran was supposedly someone Minaya didn't get the green light to sign in Texas. Carlos had been Minaya's guy for a while.

When the Mets were at their best, in 2006, his guys were nearly always coming through. In a 2006 article, Dave Studeman identified ten players that Minaya picked up on the cheap and became integral parts of the great '06 squad: Chad Bradford, Darren Oliver, Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Jose Valentin, John Maine, Endy Chavez, Roberto Hernandez, Guillermo Mota, and Oliver Perez. Players like Jose Valentin, a guy no one else would expect to be a starting-caliber second baseman, were making Minaya look like a genius, like he had that something Mark Shapiro lacked. Those were ten moves that get you on the cover of Sports Illustrated, that made people pay attention when you started talking about "false hustle," as if it were secret knowledge.

In the conclusion to that piece, Studeman writes, "It may be luck, it may be skill. It may be the result of a team with money taking good calculated risks." Here's a hint: six of those players were relievers, the most luck-dependent players in baseball. Ultimately, though, time revealed the truth: it was luck. Even from that original list, of the seven he retained, five fizzled out, either from injuries or ineffectiveness. Regarding the other two, Endy Chavez was replaced by the awful Jeremy Reed and Pedro Feliciano became the last man standing in several subsequent bullpen failures.

Then, Minaya started to display some bad tendencies. He became too loyal to his guys: if a reliever with poor skills floundered in the first-half, Minaya would trust him to right the ship. Similarly, as if to underscore that he had done something right, Minaya would pay ridiculously over-market contracts to previous buy-low pick-ups, like Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, negating the value that made the moves good in the first place. He proved unable to manage injury risks, entrusting Moises Alou and John Maine with serious duties while keeping no reliable back-ups on hand. Minaya's front office overreacted to small sample sizes, see: Omir Santos, Marlon Anderson, and Daniel Murphy. He gave away Heath Bell, Brian Bannister, and Darren O'Day.

Yet, none of these miscues sticks out as a particularly strong indictment of his ability's as a scout, just as a talent evaluator. Moises Alou was a great player, when he played. He was a horrible pick-up for a team that needed a reliable, everyday left-fielder. On the major league level, talent evaluation involves using the most accurate objective measures to evaluate a player's track record, something observation can't do reliably, in any sport or field. These past few years, the Mets would have been better suited with a Mark Shapiro-type, with no particular scouting expertise, but an ability to objectively evaluate major-league talent and make sound business decisions. With a large payroll and the established core of Wright/Reyes, it seems the Mets badly needed some false hustle, some paperwork, some stability, not a huge gamble at 15 of the the 25 roster spots every season.

But maybe it is too late for that. As fielding stats get more widely accepted, it seems a glorified Moneyball scenario, where a few teams with superior objective analysis carry an edge, is becoming less likely. As more players, are signing long-term deals with the teams that drafted them, and fewer are hitting free agency, the statistical analysis the Mets have been so neglectful of becomes just the baseline. Indeed, as Jay wrote about some of the most successful teams around the league: "it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the 'Ivy League whiz kid' GM model tend to have a 'wise old baseball man' figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan." With that pattern in mind, I was encouraged to read that the Wilpons convinced Sandy Johnson to stay out of retirement, allegedly in preparation for a non-Minaya centric front office.

For similar reasons, these forces will also probably push forward the mythical symbiosis of scouting and statistics that everyone pays lip-service to but isn't quite sure what they're referring to. More than just pitchf/x and hitf/x, the observation of both amateur and professional talent will come down to hyper-specific scouting reports that use data and observation to spot trends of growth or deterioration in a player's skills. And maybe, even then, it will take some "wise old baseball man," with a special eye for talent, to build the best franchise.

On December 10, 2008, the Mets, Indians, and Mariners completed a three-way trade, in which the Mariners received Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, Jason Vargas, Mike Carp, Ezequiel Carrera, Maikel Cleto, and Franklin Gutierrez. The Mets received J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green, while the Indians received Joe Smith and Luis Valbuena.

This trade, for me, perfectly encapsulates two failed models for a front office and the future of a what it means to a successful one. Omar Minaya acquired a talented player with serious injury concerns, and severely downgraded two known major-league entities, presumably not knowing he did. Shapiro acquired a minor league infielder with good stats, but a "bad body" and mixed scouting reports. While there is plenty of time for him to improve, Valbuena was merely replacement level this season. Meanwhile, Jack Zduriencik, the long-time scouting director who understands and embraces statistical analysis, brought in a 6-WAR centerfielder and a boatload of interesting prospects.

The Mets under Minaya were famed for embracing multiple perspectives, both of the scout and the statistician. Sadly, they failed to understand how those roles fit into a functioning front office. First, they need a reliable process for evaluating and valuing major league talent, a la the Indians. Then, they can get their "guys."

A Tale Of Two Indians

Jay — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 22:39:43 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

And you may ask yourself, well, how did I get here?

Browse more photos »

This article originally appeared on Yahoo! Sports. Discussion of the article is here.

As we await the first pitch of the 2009 World Series, you will forgive us Cleveland fans if we're not quite sure how we feel about this Game One matchup. At the moment, we're merely dubious, but we'll be feeling a whole range of emotions when C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee take the mound Wednesday night. There will be an irresistible pinch of excitement, watching the players we've spent years rooting for reach this pinnacle. There will be sadness, watching them achieve it with other teams, and for other teams' fans. Over the course of the game, there will be some fun moments watching "our guys," but in the end, that's going to give way to an all-abiding sense of disappointment.

There's going to be anger. In fact, there already is. Anger at a team that was picked to win their division four years in a row, yet managed just one winning record in those four years. Anger that we've made the playoffs just once in nine seasons — I'm already counting 2010 — and almost went to the World Series in that one winning year. Almost. Anger at a GM who just announced the hiring of a manager who was cast away by the worst organization in the game. Anger at an ownership group perceived as too thrifty to pay top-dollar for a name like Bobby Valentine, just as they were too cheap to keep these two lefty aces on the Cleveland roster.

Perhaps most of all, there is anger at the sports gods who ordered up this special humiliation for Cleveland fans. Two true aces emerge, after dozens of seasons without any aces. Our boys bring home the Cy Young Award in consecutive seasons — which never happens! — only to be traded away in consecutive seasons. Yes, this outrage, it's juicy. Much worse than that 43–0 homecoming drubbing the Steelers gave the Browns in 1999, far more inexplicable than the Indians' three-game collapse to lose the 2007 ALCS. This one, it's special. Just like blowing the World Series with two outs in the bottom of the ninth in Game Seven, it's a screwing that's been saved just for Cleveland fans and nobody else. And don't think we're not pissed about it.

Lots of Indians went to the postseason this year, you see. The Dodgers lineup had three — Manny Ramirez, Casey Blake and Ron Belliard — not to mention our all-time home run leader, Jim Thome, on the bench. Victor Martinez went with the Red Sox, while Rafael Betancourt went with the Rockies. The Cardinals had Mark DeRosa and Ryan Ludwick, both of whom had short stints with the Indians. And now, the coup de grace, an all-bartered-away-Indians matchup in Game One of the World Series. Two guys who could never put it together for the Indians — or was it the other way around? — battling it out for all the marbles. Yeah, you'd be pissed, too.

One thing Indians fans will see when Sabathia takes the mound is our last first-round draft pick who actually gave the Indians a good season in the majors. Sabathia went 20th overall in 1999, spent just one full season in the minors in 2000, and debuted with the Indians at the start of the 2001 season at the tender age of 20. He was a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy right out of the gate, and while he made the fans wait through four years of fits and starts before finally emerging as a "true ace," even the most skeptical fans — the ones who couldn't stand the crooked cap and copious belly — would have to admit that he did eventually dominate.

Lee came to the Indians organization in 2002 the same way he left in 2009, in a big swap, with the Indians sending an ascendant ace out for an impressive group of prospects. The ace was Bartolo Colon, and Lee came back to the Indians in a package that was so sweet, Grady Sizemore was thought to be the third-best guy in it. "The Colon Deal" set the standard for getting premium value out of a star player in his walk year; all subsequent deals are compared to it, and never favorably. Teams don't just give away future All-Stars the way they used to. Nobody could have guessed that the Indians would be on the sinking-ship side of two more Colon Deals before the decade was out.

Indians fans naturally were livid in 2002, as they are now. They didn't understand the trade then, and the media hadn't really figured out how to portray it. (The crawl at the bottom of the ESPN screen read: "Indians trade P Bartolo Colon to Expos for 1B Lee Stevens and minor leaguers.") I still remember GM Mark Shapiro standing bravely at the podium, really like no GM I can recall before or since, saying something like, "I know I'm going to catch hell for this, but this is the only way we win in the future."

Both players emerged as front-of-the-rotation guys by the end of 2005. One-year rental Kevin Millwood was the de facto staff ace that season, somehow winning the ERA title with a losing record. Lee was in his first full season in the bigs, and he looked ready to fulfill Peter Gammons' chipper observation that he "had All-Star written all over him." Sabathia, now 24, struggled mightily for most of the season, as he often had during the previous three. The Indians were doing their trademark early-season free-fall, but the offense seemed to jump to life once batting coach Eddie Murray was dumped. Lee rode the soaring run support to an 18–5 record and a fourth-place Cy Young finish.

Sabathia didn't click until August, but he posted a 1.79 ERA over his final ten starts, providing a finishing kick as the Indians' completed four solid months of .650 baseball, making them a virtual lock for the postseason. Then, inexplicably, the Indians lost six of their final seven games, losing their playoff berth on the last day of the season. Sabathia delivered the club's lone win in that frustrating week, shutting down the happless Devil Rays over eight innings, and he has pitched like an ace ever since. Over 141 starts since August 10, 2005, Sabathia has averaged exactly seven innings per start, with a 3.02 ERA and four strikeouts for every walk. (In an utterly unheralded move, Shapiro shrewdly extended Sabathia's contract through the end of 2008, just as the 2005 season was starting.)

It was the first of many missed opportunities for the Indians and this pitching tandem. Sabathia led another impressively deep rotation in 2006, but Lee faltered into mediocrity, and a historically bad bullpen and sieve-like infield defense took the Indians out of contention in June. The club reloaded for 2007, but Lee missed the start of the season with an injury that, in retrospect, he probably never fully recovered from. After struggling with command for all of May and June, Lee fell completely off the cliff in July, posting an 8.68 ERA over his final five starts. He was, reluctantly and famously, sent to the minors at the end of July 2007.

His team, meanwhile, surged to the best record in the majors and a long-delayed trip to the playoffs. Fausto Carmona became the "second ace" Lee was expected to be, and the Indians somehow had the club's strongest and deepest rotation in recent memory, perhaps in 50 years, even without Lee. Sabathia unquestionably was the club's most valuable pitcher that season, but he faltered badly in the playoffs. He barely managed to scrape together a quality start against the Yankees in the Division Series, and he crapped the bed completely in the ALCS against the Red Sox. It may seem cruel to pin the Indians' failure to win the pennant on Sabathia, but the simple truth is that he was absolutely terrible in that series, while his teammates took three games out of five without his help. He won the Cy Young Award, but his team won only the division title.

The 2008 season was perhaps the most bizarre turn of all for the two lefites. Coming off his injury-plagued nightmare season in 2007, Lee barely made the club out of spring training to start 2008, but once the season started, he dominated opposing hitters completely. Just eight months earlier, he'd forgotten how to pitch, and now, he'd forgotten how to give up runs. As if maintaining some cosmic balance, Sabathia fell hard out of the gate, posting an astonishing 13.50 ERA over his first four starts. For the first five weeks of the season, inexplicably, Cliff Lee was the league's best starting pitcher, and the incumbent Cy Young winner Sabathia was the worst. Sabathia recovered his old form quickly, however, and against all odds, Lee maintained his new form.

Finally, for the first and only time, Cleveland had both Sabathia and Lee pitching like aces at the same time. It lasted all of ten weeks. Lee posted a 2.73 ERA from late April through the first week in July — this was actually the low-point of his season, if you can believe that — and the club went 9–4 in those games. Sabathia posted a 2.16 ERA over that same period, but the club won only seven of his 14 starts. At one point, the Indians rotation collectively threw 44 scoreless innings in a row. The lineup, however, was a different story, freezing up completely just as the rotation was surging. Throw in yet another God-awful bullpen, and the Indians' season once again was over and done by the end of June.

Two aces, finally healthy, finally pitching like two aces, for the first and only time, somehow, impossibly, was simply not enough. As a tandem, that's all Indians fans ever got out of Sabathia and Lee — one nice season in 2005, and ten dazzling but poorly timed weeks in 2008. As individuals, each guy delivered a Cy Young season, plus a couple other really good seasons. Sabathia never delivered anything in the posteason, however, and Lee never even got there. Should we blame the pitchers for not being at their best when we needed them most? Should we blame the team for not better capitalizing on their stellar seasons when they happened?

Most Indians fans will tell you, I think, that they do blame Sabathia, but Lee gets a pass. While their Cleveland careers ended with the same kind of transaction, the two men actually left Cleveland on very different terms. Sabathia was in his walk year in 2008, and he'd rebuffed contract extension talks at the start of 2007, then rebuffed them more loudly at the start of 2008. Contrary to what the cynics will tell you, most players do not, in fact, go for top dollar. In free agency, perhaps that is the rule, but most star players re-up with their hometown club before they ever reach free agency. Sabathia was offered extensions commensurate with those signed by other elite starters — Oswalt, Peavy, Zambrano, Halladay, Carpenter — and he wasn't interested.

Sabathia claimed he loved playing in Cleveland, for the Cleveland fans, within the Indians organization, with his Cleveland teammates. His friends speculated that he wanted to go back home to California. Everybody knew he liked to swing the bat, which suggested an NL destination, and he clearly relished his brief stint in Milwaukee. He made noises more than once about wanting to play with other African-Americans. And in the end, he went to the Yankees — far from his home in California, not in the National League. And for all his ample bellyaching, he isn't exactly surrounded by African-American teammates in the Bronx, either.

Sabathia and his four infielders are paid more than the entire rosters of 22 major league clubs, and Sabathia personally is guaranteed more than twice as much money in his contract than everyone in the entire Indians organization combined. In the end, for all his talk, it wasn't about anything but money. And now, just to rub salt in our wounds, Sabathia has produced for New York where he totally fell flat for Cleveland. In the 2007 postseason with the Indians, Sabathia posted an 8.80 ERA over three starts in the first two rounds. In 2009 for the Yankees, he's posted a 1.19 ERA in three starts.

Yeah. You'd be pissed, too.

Lee's exit was different. He was not in his walk year, and judging from his rebuffed requests to talk extension with the club just a few months ago, he was not determined to reach free agency. We'll never know what kind of deal Lee was truly willing to take, of course, but he wanted to talk — and he wanted to do it not just before reaching free agency, but two full years before. That generally means a guy wants to stick around, not hold out for top-dollar. That's why, while Sabathia's brilliant run in these playoff games is seen as a knife in the back, Lee's equally dominant run is more bittersweet.

This doesn't seem to happen to any other city, and it doesn't happen in any other major sport. Rank-and-file Indians fans rail at the owner for being "too cheap" to field a competitive team. They beg for Dolan to sell the team — as though some other guy with more money to blow might actually buy it. They fantasize about an owner who would pour hundreds of millions of his own dollars into the salaries of star players. They think Dick Jacobs used to spend money like that, but he didn't — in the go-go 90's, with a new taxpayer-funded stadium, Dick Jacobs always made a profit. They think the Steinbrenners and other owners spend their own money like that, but they don't — those richer clubs aren't spending down the wealth of their owners, they're just spending money from richer TV deals.

That basic imbalance in the game's economics is the reason Sabathia and Lee are starting Game One of the World Series for the Yankees and Phillies, rather than starting Games One and Two for the Indians. It is the only reason. Yes, the Indians have made a number of other missteps over the past several years, but on a basic level, Lee and Sabathia are gone because the Indians had no reasonable hope of bidding for them. The Phillies — who lured away Thome in 2003 — and the Yankees — who are the Yankees — can bid on players of this caliber once they reach free agency, and other clubs cannot.

That's why these teams have these players, and in fact, it's the only reason the Yankees made it to the World Series this year, or in any year since 1998. They've got Sabathia from the Indians, Burnett from the Marlins, Damon from the Royals, A-Rod from the Mariners, Teixeira from the Rangers, even Matsui from the Yomiuri Giants. And while the Yankees cherrypicked stars from other rosters, no other club ever got a crack at Jeter and Rivera. Yet Bud Selig wants to tell us that parity is alive and well in major league baseball. I can't imagine how he says this with a straight face. This ain't parity, this is prima nocta.

Even for those of us who understand the Indians' bind, this is ugly. They did what they had to do, that much is clear. Sabathia was determined to walk away at the end of 2008, and there was no point not cashing him in. As for Lee, the team wasn't going anywhere this season or next, with him or without him, so they sold high, eliminating the risk that he'd suffer another injury before they had another chance. You'd have trouble finding an executive anywhere in baseball to tell you that Shapiro didn't do the right thing, and many would say he's among the very best GMs in the game.

Even so, this Game One matchup is a uniquely awful thing for Indians fans to swallow, in the wake of two massively failed seasons in a row. It's still ugly. And we're still pissed.

A Tale of Two Lefties: Clifton Phifer Lee v. Carsten Charles Sabathia

David S. Cohen — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:41:16 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

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Tomorrow night, Cliff Lee will face CC Sabathia in Game 1 of the 2009 World Series. It's possible that the two lefties will face each other two more times over the course of the possible seven game series, as each manager has indicated that his ace lefty could pitch Games 1, 4, and 7 (if necessary).

The two aces share a lot in common besides both being lefties. Both were initially drafted in the 1998 amateur draft, Sabathia by the Indians and Lee by the Orioles. Sabathia was a first round pick who quickly signed. Lee, a twentieth round pick, did not sign, re-entering the draft in 2000 when he was drafted by the Expos. In 2002, before he had reached the majors, he was traded to the Indians as part of a package in the Bartolo Colon deadline deal.

Until 2008, both Lee and Sabathia spent their major league careers as Indians, with Sabathia being the better pitcher, although not by much. From 2001 through mid-2008, Sabathia was 106-71 with a 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 116 ERA+ over 1528 innings. From 2002 through mid-2009, Lee was 83-48 for the Indians with a 4.01 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 110 ERA+ over 1117 innings.

Even though Sabathia had the better career as an Indian, Lee's peak was better. The two won back-to-back Cy Young Awards as Indians, but Lee had the better Cy Young season. In 2007, Sabathia went 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA over 241 innings. His ERA+ was 143 and his WARP3 was 7.2. In Lee's 2008 Cy Young season, he went 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA over 223.1 innings. His ERA+ was 175 with a WARP3 of 8.6.

Both Sabathia and Lee were traded in blockbuster mid-season trades that netted the Indians a good portion of a future lineup and rotation. The Indians got Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, and Zach Jackson from the Brewers for Sabathia in July 2008. A year later, they got Carlos Carrasco, Jason Knapp, Lou Marson, and Jason Donald from the Phillies for Lee. Both players were then key cogs in getting their new team to the post-season, with Sabathia coming in fifth place in the NL Cy Young voting for his half-year of work for the Brewers and Cliff Lee anchoring an until-then shaky Phillies rotation in the second half of their third-in-a-row NL East championship season.

Both players have been excellent so far this post-season. They've both pitched 3 games, allowed 4 runs, and have a 20:3 strikeout to walk ratio. The big difference, if you can call it big, is that Lee has pitched more innings (24.1 to Sabathia's 22.2), and has allowed fewer earned runs (2 to Sabathia's 3). Thus, Lee has an eye-popping 0.74 ERA compared to Sabathia's merely gaudy 1.19 ERA.

So what can we expect from these two in this series? Both have faltered in their career against the opposing team. In 9 career starts, Lee has a 4-4 record against the Yankees, posting a 5.02 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 39:18 strikeout to walk ratio. In 4 career starts against the Phillies (including the post-season), Sabathia has a 1-2 record with a 5.55 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and 17:8 strikeout to walk ratio.

Looking to splits, both pitchers have been better against right-handed hitters over their entire careers, although not drastically so. For Sabathia, he has given up a .694 OPS to righties and .647 OPS to lefties. For Lee, he has given up a .733 OPS to righties and .714 to lefties. This year, however, it has been much more drastic for both pitchers. For Sabathia, .681 for righties and .560 for lefties. For Lee, .734 for righties and .583 for lefties. Both teams' lefties should struggle against these pitchers.

At the new Yankee Stadium, both pitchers have done well this year, although with Cliff Lee having a very small sample size, of course. Sabathia pitched 15 games during the regular season and had a 3.17 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Lee won the 1 game he pitched there this year, letting up 1 earned run in 6 innings, for a 1.50 ERA but a 1.67 WHIP. At CBP, Lee was 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. ~~Sabathia hasn't pitched in Philadelphia yet in his career.~~ [EDIT: Sabathia has pitched one post-season game at CBP and no regular season games. In that one game, he took the loss and had a 12.27 ERA, 3+ WHIP, and a 5:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Clearly not good at all, the "small sample size" bell should be ringing loud and clear.]

Finally, how have the two done against the individual hitters in the opposing lineups? Having been in the AL, Lee has a much longer track record against the Yankees' hitters and many have fared very well against him. Only Raul Ibanez has seen Sabathia a significant number of times, although in limited at-bats the top of the Phillies lineup has dominated Sabathia. (The numbers here include post-season plate appearances.)

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Victorino	10	0.556	0.600	1.000	1.600
Rollins	14	0.385	0.429	0.769	1.198
Ibanez	43	0.275	0.326	0.525	0.851
Ruiz	5	0.400	0.400	0.400	0.800
Howard	9	0.333	0.333	0.444	0.777
Werth	8	0.250	0.250	0.500	0.750
Francisco	6	0.200	0.333	0.400	0.733
Feliz	8	0.125	0.125	0.250	0.375
Utley	6	0.000	0.167	0.000	0.167

	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Rodriguez	20	0.333	0.450	0.733	1.183
Teixeira	26	0.391	0.462	0.696	1.158
Jeter	30	0.407	0.467	0.519	0.986
Posada	22	0.286	0.273	0.667	0.940
Swisher	24	0.333	0.458	0.444	0.902
Cabrera	12	0.273	0.333	0.545	0.878
Matsui	19	0.294	0.368	0.412	0.780
Cano	19	0.222	0.263	0.222	0.485
Damon	23	0.091	0.130	0.091	0.221

With the track record for these two aces being so close, the best prediction is that the games they pitch should be close battles, at least as long as the starters stay in the game.

The only clear loser here is the Cleveland Indians.

Hyperbole Alert

Sam Page — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 10:00:37 -0000

Quiz: Do you think the Mets would have been competitive, had they had no injuries? What about one major injury? Two minor ones?

There's no factual answer to those questions. Looking at my preseason WAR projections, however, I calculated that those players who missed significant time this season accounted for 40% of the teams projected production this season. In my opinion then, while recognizing other factors like underachieving players, bad roster management, and random variation could make the results very different than the projected 94 wins, the Mets would have been at least competitive with a healthier roster.

While the rash of injuries around this team exposed the Mets' depth issues, top heaviness, and in turn, Omar Minaya, they don't mean 2010 is necessarily lost. A recent Jayson Stark column, however, seems to subtly insinuate that prophesy with its three titles:

"New York Mets' Future Looks Downright Gloomy"

"Mets in impossible spot going forward"

and of course: "Trading Jose Reyes could be a huge step toward jump-starting moribund franchise"

Granted this column was written by a guy who penned a book that argued Andruw Jones was "the most overrated CF of all time," more overrated than Juan Pierre even, so hyperbole and nonsense should be expected. Still, it's the most comprehensive forward looking article on the Mets, so naturally metsblog and others are weighing in on it. Matt Cerrone echoed the call for rebuilding (emphasis of everything except "SNY" and "Citi Field" his):

…the Mets need a three-year, re-building plan… the thing is, though i believe Mets fans are willing to see them through it, assuming the team is clear about what they’re doing, i don’t think ownership is willing because of SNY and Citi Field…

So before this "rebuilding" idea passes through the realm of opinion into inescapable fact/unanimous voice of the Mets fan, let's consider the content of this Stark piece. After some bad jokes, he begins:

The trouble with that, though, is this: As soon as this lost season is over, it will be time to contemplate a question almost equally scary:

Then what?

I dunno, lunch? A nap? A 8-year/$90MM Jeff Francoeur extension?

Well, fortunately for the Mets, Rumblings and Grumblings is here to help them answer that question. Unfortunately for them, Rumblings is not here to paint a real attractive picture.

The way he talks about the name of his column, you'd think it was the big scary monster that requires you to answer his riddle before you can cross the rightfield bridge. In fact, here's a picture of Mr. Grumblings promoting his new book Worth The Wait: Tales of the 2008 Phillies:

But before we get into what officials of other clubs think the Mets should do about this mess they're in, we want to give Mets GM Omar Minaya his take. And we'll say this about Minaya: For a man who has spent the past six months finding out what it feels like to be a human pinata, he's remarkably upbeat.

"I think it's a challenge," he said. "But I've dealt with challenges before. I had to build the Montreal Expos situation from scratch [after MLB took over the club]. That was a challenge. When I came here to New York in 2004, that was a challenge. So I've dealt with challenges before, and we'll work very hard to deal with this challenge."

Oh boy this off-season will be like when MLB took over the Expos. You know, when Minaya traded prospects Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Cliff Lee for a year of Bartolo Colon, the trade many consider the worst ever. What would be the modern equivalent, Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia, and Jose Reyes for a year of Kevin Millwood?

"Positive" wouldn't be the word we'd use to describe the reviews we got from a half-dozen baseball men we surveyed about the Mets' future. Here's a sampling:

• "You look at their team and think, 'What does the next three or four years hold?' and it's not real pretty," said one American League executive.

Who cares if the person is an "American League executive"? If that's all you're going to get out of them, I'd rather read some guy rambling on a message board. At least he watches the team.

• "There's no quick fix out there for them," said a National League executive. "They've got to rebuild half the team on the field and the whole damn [starting] pitching staff."

C: Thole/Santos, 1B:??, 2B: Castillo, SS: Reyes, 3B: Wright, LF:??, CF: Beltran, RF: Martinez/Francoeur?

SP: Santana, ??, Pelfrey, Niese, Perez/Maine

• "They've got no choice but to rebuild," said an official of an AL team. "It's hard to do in New York, but they've got to bite the bullet for a couple of years and redevelop their system. I don't see that team as being a free agent or two away. I know that."

What does rebuilding mean? Trading Reyes/Wright/Beltran/Santana? That seems ill-advised. What if those two free-agents are Matt Holliday and Rich Harden?

• "They should probably get rid of the general manager and a lot of the people who have been there, and go in another direction completely," said a longtime NL scout. "Just blow it up. But I'm not sure how. They've got a lot of players that people don't want, guys who are making a lot of money, and they're overpaid. And there's not a whole lot in their system. So unless they outspend their mistakes, they've put themselves in a hole for maybe the next six to eight years."

We meet again, mr. anonymous scout.

OK, so not all the folks we spoke with were quite that bleak. This was, after all, a team that watched 19 players head for the disabled list this season.

Woops! I cherry-picked all those quotations! lolz!

So we did hear one comparison of this Mets team to the 2008 Mariners, another underachieving debacle of a club that got healthier, consciously set out to upgrade team chemistry and at least bounced back to respectability this year.

Horrible comparison. The 2008 Mariners planned to use Jose ".612 OPS" Vidro as their opening-day DH. The 2009 Mariners to set out to upgrade their talent and added Franklin Gutierrez and Russell Branyan, two of the most productive position players in the AL at minimal cost, and in one of those cases, at the expense of the Mets.

But after a season like this -- and the two painful finishes that preceded it -- can these Mets really take the approach that if they just tweak the roster a little and get everyone healthy, they'll be OK?

"No," said one NL scout, "because they won't be."

"Why?"

"Because I said so."

"Can I anonymously quote you as calling all of the Mets prospects garbage?"

"Sure. Now if you'd excuse me, I need to get back to watching the Vermont Lake Monsters."

Jayson Stark premises his whole article on this one warrantless claim about by someone who, for all we know, watches the Mets three times a year. As people keep beating the rebuilding drum this season, remember how it all started "No, because they won't be." Starting printing those posters: "Your 2010 Mets: No, because they won't be." (Can someone please make this?)

"If they have an embarrassing September, I can see them cleaning house," said one baseball man. "If they play respectably, I'd bet both [Minaya and Manuel] keep their jobs. But if they don't -- if they don't even compete and it's embarrassing -- I'd bet they'll both be gone."

Record in September so far: 3-3. There's a shot.

As big a nightmare as the big league season may have been, life wasn't exactly nirvana down below, either. The Mets' Triple-A and Double-A teams are a combined 60 games under .500. Not one full-season Mets affiliate has a winning record. And we haven't even gotten into the whole Tony Bernazard affair.

Yes, learning top prospect Tony Bernazard was in fact 53, not 19 as he claimed on his rookie contract and in an interview with SNY, was a hard pill to swallow. Oklahoma City is 7 games under .500. Why is that important? The Rangers top rated-farm system must actually be horrible.

"That's not a good system," said an AL exec. "The good prospects they do have are a long ways away. They don't have depth in their system or on their roster."

-snip-

"the obvious approach is to trade off players," said the same AL executive. "But in that team's case, I'm not even sure that will get them where they need to go."

And why is that? We're about to tell you.

We're about to tell you, Mr. Rumbling and Grumbling and I.

"What are they going to do for a rotation behind Johan [Santana]?" asked one scout. "Oliver Perez has turned into their Adam Eaton. [John] Maine has reverted back to a Triple-A pitcher. [Jonathon] Niese is a rookie. Bobby Parnell is Aaron Heilman all over again. [Mike] Pelfrey is just a [No.] 4 or 5 [starter]. So they have to go out and get at least two, and probably three, starters."

Perez will be the 5th starter, and will probably be passable in that role, assuming his health. Jon Niese looks like an average pitcher with above-average upside; not sure when "rookie" became such a horrible curse. Pelfrey is also somewhere between average and above-average, despite whatever label people want to put on him this season. That leaves room for another good starter to complement Johan and some decent depth additions.

"They need to think character, and bring in high-character players," said one baseball man we surveyed. "The single greatest difference between the Phillies and the Mets is that the Phillies have guys in their clubhouse who care about each other and they're all about winning. The Mets don't have nearly enough guys like that."

huh

So the logical solution is: Trade one or two of those stars. Re-stir the mix. And help heal the scars left by three straight seasons that turned out all wrong.

Logical must mean something different these days.

OK, that sounds logical.

Mr. Stark either: A. has a split personality named Mr. Grumbling who he is agreeing with, B. is giving a subtle hint that this whole article is parody, C. forgot he said the same thing three sentences ago.

Santana? No way. K-Rod? They just signed him.

So? They just signed him...last year. I know they won't trade him, but I can still hope.

So now we're down to two: Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes.

"If you conclude that's the solution -- that you have to make a change to your core group -- then you have to trade one of the two of them," said one baseball man. "And it has to be Reyes."

So why is that? Because Beltran has a complete no-trade clause. And because he has $37 million left on his contract for the next two years. And because his 2½ months on the disabled list, with what is still being described as a "bruised knee," haven't exactly made him the most attractive trade candidate alive.

Beltran's 2.5 months on the DL has really hurt his value, as opposed to Reyes' 4 months on the DL.

"They'd better think twice before they move that guy," said an official of one team. "Guys like that are hard to find. The reputation he's got now is, he doesn't want to play. But look at the games played before this year -- 159 last year, 160 in '07, 153 in '06, 161 in '05. So this guy plays. Sorry. No way I'm trading him if I'm them. Absolutely no way."

But if the Mets don't trade him, does that mean they don't trade anybody? And if they don't make some kind of significant change to a mix of players their fans have lost faith in, can they possibly sell the 2010 Mets to a town where Yankees caps now seem to outnumber Mets caps by about 1,000 to 1?

Stark's specious logic overcomes the one rational executive he quoted in this whole piece. Wanna convert a bunch of Yankees fans to Mets fans? Trade their second best player. Sell low, buy high. Good work team, the ticket orders should start rolling in. 2010 Mets: "Maybe, because they might be."

So you thought the past five months felt like a ride on the Titanic for this team? Uh, stay tuned. The GM says he likes challenges, right? Well, we hope so -- because, if he hangs onto his job, the biggest challenge of his career hasn't even begun.

Wouldn't a five month ride on the Titanic be a good thing? Or did it take five months to sink into the ocean? What did they say about the Titanic before it set out? "No, because it won't sink."?

The Day The White Sox Lost The Central: Part 2

The Cheat — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 04:26:03 -0000

More photos » by Andy King - AP

We never run any good pictures of Herm Schneider

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Last season when the White Sox dropped their July 31st game in the Metrodome in painful fashion and picked up Ken Griffey Jr. to play CF on the same day, I wrote a tongue-in-cheek headline that read "The Day The White Sox Lost The Central." Nearly a year later with the Sox getting swept out of the dome (again), the Sox chances seem even more bleak.

Perpetual Mediocrity

Although the roster sure feels a whole lot better with no more Lillibridge, Betemit, Anderson and crew, there hasn't been much progress in the way of results. The Sox have closed each month of the season within a game of .500, where they now sit (51-51) with two days left in the month. They might have made progress in July, but their 1-6 record this week against their two chief division rivals has erased any gains... and the schedule doesn't get any easier as they head to August.

Injuries Mounting

Bartolo Colon informed Ozzie Guillen of his sore right elbow late last night, which didn't exactly make Guillen swell with pride. We all knew Colon would get injured. We practically counted on it. But it's not like he was really doing anything but snacking on innings when he was healthy. His ERA looks nice and all, but there's BetemiTon of unearned runs in there that still count against the Sox bottom line. There's really no reason why the Sox should bother to count on him for anything other than headaches the rest of the season.

Carlos Quentin hit his first homerun since April to pull the Sox even at 2, but he pulled up lame and hobbled around the bases. Replays showed that he actually seemed to reaggravate his PF in the previous half-inning during one of the rare occasions that Alexi Casilla made an out. It doesn't appear that the injury will take Quentin out for any period of time in the near future, but the two plays illustrated just how close he is to being forced to shut it down for the rest of the season. He's either going to be hobbled for the rest of the year, or finish it just like he did last year.

Alexei Ramirez caught a spike attempting to make a take-out slide at second and appeared in great pain as he rolled around on the Dome's unforgiving carpet. The official word is that he has a sprained ankle, as he left the building on crutches with X-rays scheduled for tomorrow.

What passes for optimism around here

Yeah, things aren't exactly all puppy dogs and roses right now. But I'm reminded of the way I closed that entry I referenced in the opening, here's the last paragraph:

[T]here was a game last night. And it sucked. And there will be a lot written about momentum, and ejections, and stuff being thrown on the field. And not a lick of it will have any staying power as a narrative if the Sox rebound and start kicking ass over the final two months.

The last series sucked. Nearly everything has sucked since Buehrle's perfect game. But this division is terribly mediocre, just like the Sox. I'm not really in favor of any more future-changing trades in exchange for relievers -- the Sox are rumored to be after George Sherrill, and, just for good measure, have scouted Felix Pie "for over 6 weeks" -- as the Sox can win the division with their current roster. But they can also lose it (and a lot more) if they drain their farm system looking to grab the bronze ring.

Transactions: Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco Traded

Ryan — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 03:54:11 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Cliff Lee.

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Traded LHP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco to the Philadelphia Phillies for RHP Jason Knapp (A-), RHP Carlos Carrasco (AAA), C Lou Marson (AAA), and IF Jason Donald (AAA)

In baseball, teams generally turn over gradually through attrition, free agency, and trade, so there's often no clear line of demarcation between eras of a franchise, but this week seems as definitive a boundary as the 2002 Bartolo Colon trade was. In a neat bit of coincidence, Cliff Lee was involved in both the beginning and end of that era. In 2002, Cliff was one of the three then unknown prospects received for who was then one of the best pitchers in baseball. It's taken eight years and a few detours, but now Cliff Lee is one of the elite pitchers in the game, and taking his place are four unknowns that will hopefully be part of the next good Indians team.

In both cases, the Indians did not have to make the trade when they did. Both Colon and Lee were under the club's control for one more season. The comparison does end there. Colon was one of the few bright spots in what was otherwise a sickly roster and barren minor-league system. Bartolo's departure was the first step in a major organizational turnover. The Indians of today have glaring problems, but much better young talent than at the beginning of the last cycle. The roster will not have to be gutted, but the team as is isn't good enough to win in 2010 without external additions, and according to Mark Shapiro at today's press conference, all that ownership was willing to promise was payroll stasis. Kerry Wood was supposed to be the big splash that put the Indians back into contention, but even though he's largely lived up to advance billing, the rest of the pitching staff, whether due to injury or just plain shoddy player evaluation and development, cratered the season.

Now, with the team poised for a significant financial loss and free agency additions out of the question, a tough decision had to be made: keep the core of the team together for one more season and hope for the best, or take a step back and try to regroup a couple years from now? Choosing to stick it out would mean better attendance, and a decent shot at contention, but also that the subsequent rebuilding would be more difficult and painful to execute. Mark Shapiro chose to regroup, and trading Cliff Lee was the first part of that process. In all probability there will be at least one more core player to go, and one would expect a coaching shakeup to happen at season's close. Shapiro might not have been wholly responsible for the 2002 team, but this time he's going to have to clean up his own, slightly smaller, mess.

It follows that if the Indians were going to deal pieces of the core, the best time to do so would be right away. The opportunity would still be there to deal Lee (and Martinez) at the end of this season, but the air of urgency wouldn't be there for their trading partners, and the two trading chips would be less valuable. And yes, I'm assuming Victor Martinez will be traded in next day-and-a-half, for logic would dictate that if you are committed to not competing in 2010, then a player whose contract only runs through 2010 must be traded.

My problem with this trade comes with the execution. The best prospect in the deal is Jason Knapp, an 18-year-old pitcher with great upside and peripherals but at best is 2-to-3 years from reaching the majors. Knapp might be the exclamation point to the building of the next good Indians team, but he won't be its foundation. Carlos Carrasco should contribute right away, but needs to refine his slider. The position players (C Lou Marson and IF Jason Donald), while close to the majors, don't fill obvious holes. Even if you assume Victor Martinez is gone, the Indians still have Kelly Shoppach to bridge the gap between Martinez and Carlos Santana. Marson looks like Kelly Shoppach's evil twin (good on-base skills, but little power), and could complement Shoppach as his backup, but it would make more sense to spin him off to another team who sees in him a potential starter. Jason Donald, if you look at his entire minor-league track record, could supplant or share time with Luis Valbuena at second base in a year or so, but again, the need wasn't pressing. Among the three near-MLB prospects, none of them appear to me as a future core player.

On an emotional level, seeing Cliff dealt is extremely difficult. This was a guy who was at times in his career was overrated, ridiculed, or even forgotten about, and now that he's blossomed into one of baseball's best pitchers, he's moving on. Greatness in an Indians uniform is rarely allowed to linger, and so it is with Cliff Lee.

Clayton Richard Is An Enigma, Forces Sox to Rethink Bullpen Move

The Cheat — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 04:37:40 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Clayton Richard is effectively frustrating.

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Most of the time when I write a recap, I don't simply rehash the game's run-scoring plays or run the standard post-game player/manager quotes. I write from the point of view of an everyday fan. This can occasionally lead to some embarrassing posts in hindsight, but I suspect is the main draw of the site for most.

I bring this up for two reasons:

I don't have a good feel for this team right now. I'm lacking the proper perspective. It's been a solid two weeks since I even got to so much as listen to a White Sox game. My only real in-game interaction with the Sox came when I checked the score of the game (and my email) from a backwoods library in the middle of Iowa during the 4th inning of Buehrle's perfect game. (Sadly, I didn't notice he had something working at the time.)

I honestly don't have any read on Ozzie or Kenny's thinking right now, and I'm not even going to try and fake it.
The last time I wrote about Clayton Richard in this space I was begging for him to be pulled from the rotation.

For me, no baseball axiom has been reinforced more this season than Hawk's You're never as bad as you look when you're losing, and you're never as good as you look as when you're winning, which can be carried over to individual players as well.

Clayton Richard was on life support as a starter, a placeholder until the Sox found a better option. Now he's tossed two consecutive 1-run, 8 inning outings. Richard's true talent lies somewhere in between the me calling for his head a few weeks ago and the unlikely ace who's forcing me to fight the urge to ask why he's about to be removed from the rotation.

The company line is that Bartolo Colon is headed back for the rotation. Yet somehow I think his return could be a short one. Colon has shown zero interest in pitching from the bullpen, is one cheeseburger from the DL, and has hardly earned his way back into the rotation. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him get lit up and Richard to be slotted right back into the rotation with Colon pulling another disappearing act, or to have KW package Richard and/or Poreda in exchange for a pitcher too talented to be saddled with the 5th Starter tag.

But what do I know? I'm just a guy who watches the Sox play once every two weeks and hasn't read all the postgame quotes.

Richard may get another start.

"Last two outings this kid has been great," Guillen said after Sunday's win over Detroit. "I've got to sit down with Kenny on the plane ride to Minnesota] and talk about it. See if we have better ideas. What we have to do to keep him in the role, give him another shot. The way he pitched the last couple games he's been great."

Guillen was then asked if Richard had changed his mind about putting him back in the bullpen.

"To me, yeah. To me," he replied. "I'm the boss of the team, the manager, but this team runs by coaches, manager and general manager. We do all things together. [Today] we should have a better idea.

"Right now it seems like we have a six-man rotation, but I don't want to do that. In the meanwhile, this kid is pitching so great, we have to sit down and talk. See what the matchups are going to be and what we need."

Market Crash: 5 Red Sox Prospects Whose Stocks Have Fallen

Ben Buchanan — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 11:00:42 -0000

Feeling down from the losing streak? Want an inspirational story about a promising prospect to give you a lift? Look elsewhere. via sonsofsamhorn.net

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Acclaim is a fickle thing in the world of prospects. One good year could have a previous unknown garnering all sorts of attention, from lists of dark horses and "players to watch" to team top-10's and league top-100's. The opposite is, of course, also true—one bad year and a player previously proclaimed a future All-Star is dropped to the realms of the dreaded "PTBNL", from whence few have ever returned (with some exceptions. See: Ortiz, David). After all, in the minor leagues, everyone is unproven. A major leaguer with a good track record slumps, while a minor leaguer "hits a wall". The Sox farm system is, of course, not immune from this. And just as 2009 has seen some pleasant surprises, it has seen some disappointments as well. So, without further ado, and from the smallest to greatest drops, I give you the 5 worst cases.

5. Will Middlebrooks

Who he is: Considered the ultimate toolsy player from the 2007 draft, Will Middlebrooks came into the system with seemingly unlimited potential. Power potential was buried in his seemingly ideal body structure, he was already a good-fielding 3B with the ability to get better, and he seemed to only need some adjustments to his swing and to work on his plate approach.

What's wrong: In 209 rookie at bats, Middlebrooks put up an OPS of .666 with 73 strike outs in Lowell. Through 222 at bats this year, he's piled up 78 Ks and improved the OPS by all of .002. His pitch recognition and plate discipline don't seem to have improved much at all. His above-average speed hasn't translated to stolen bases (3/6), and his power hasn't exactly manifested itself (13 doubles, 1 triple, and 4 homers. .121 ISO).

Why there's hope: Monthly improvement. After a .504 OPS April and .518 May, Middlebrooks has managed a .850 June and then regressed to a .702 July. The power isn't really there, and he's still striking out plenty more than he's walking, but it's better than what he did to start the year and certainly better than '07.

4. Michael Almanzar

Who he is: If Middlebrooks was the ultimate toolsy player from the '07 draft, then Almanzar was his international free agent counterpart. Almanzar came in without much baseball experience as a significant project for the organization. If they could build him up, he could be an all-star. If not, he was likely a bust.

What's wrong: So far, it's not looking good. Almanzar put up good numbers as a rookie in the GCL against similarly inexperienced pitching, but fell apart as soon as he hit A-ball. The trend has continued, as Michael could only manage a .554 OPS in 49 games before being demoted to Lowell, since which he's been even worse at .515. What's perhaps more troubling is the pace at which he accumulated errors when he first arrived in Lowell, suggesting he may be experiencing some sort of frustration-related issues. Almanzar has generally been slow to adjust to instruction so far, and if he can't do that, he's likely done.

Why there's hope: He's still 18. He's still just starting out in organized baseball. He's still got all the tools. That's all there is to it.

3. Lars Anderson

Who he is: If you're a Red Sox fan and you don't know, you must've been living in a cave. Lars came into the year almost universally regarded as the top Sox prospect and a top-50 if not top-25 prospect in the major leagues. A big-time lefty bat seen as the heir-apparent to David Ortiz with comparisons to Justin Morneau, Lars was THE Sox Prospect.

What went wrong: Well, 2009 just hasn't been his year. A .753 OPS in Portland after dominating the league in a 100-at bat 2008 stint. Lars just hasn't hit the ball enough or with enough power. 85 Ks, a .263 average and a .397 slugging making for a low Iso of .134 are not Lars Anderson numbers. The OBP is high, but not as high as usual.

Why there's hope:

Here's why. Oh, and something I forgot to mention there: His BABIP is certainly pretty good right now, but it's not in line with his impressive career averages thus far—likely more a symptom than a cause of the low power numbers, but not completely worth ignoring.

2. Oscar Tejeda

Who he is: Once considered the future SS of the Sox for those who didn't particularly like Jed Lowrie, Oscar Tejeda has fallen off the map like few others have. Considered an advanced shortstop both offensively and defensively, Tejeda put up fair numbers in his 267 rookie at bats.

What went wrong: Perhaps Tejeda is just a victim of overhype. Julio Lugo sent a lot of people looking for saviors, and those who didn't see it in the seemingly solid-but-dull Jed Lowrie went looking for a superstar in the rough and found Tejeda. Whatever the reason, the expectations have proved way above his head. Tejeda is currently following up a .647 OPS in 2008 with a .659 OPS in 2009, and he's doing it with a Lugo-like fielding performance with 21 errors in 70 games. His speed is counteracted by apparently horrible baserunning skills as evidenced by a 16% success rate, and while his K:BB rate is not so bad as some other players (2.75) it's certainly not good. Tejeda's slugging a paltry .337 with a laughable Iso of .080. Basically, as of now, he's doing nothing right.

Why there's hope: Much like Almanzar, Tejeda has age on his side. At 19, he's got time to work out the kinks. The problem is that there's a lot of them to work through. For what it's worth, he's struggled with his health for the last year, which could be a mitigating circumstance.

1. Kris Johnson

Who he is: A former first round pick, Kris Johnson has done anything but live up to the potential. After establishing himself early with a 0.88 ERA in 13 rookie starts, Johnson's career has been something of a roller coaster. Johnson had a poor campaign in 2007, with an ERA of 5.56, but that seemed to be written off as a Lancaster aberration after a return-to-form in 2008, when he managed a 3.63 ERA in Portland.

What went wrong: Everything. Kris Johnson has been plagued his whole career with walks. In '07 and '08, Johnson's K:BB ratio didn't exceed 2. In 2009, it's been even worse, at 1.65. Johnson has wilted especially in disadvantageous positions, performing very poorly in at bats when he gets behind, and with runners on. All this combines for a 6.37 ERA, and one of the biggest disappearing acts this side of Bartolo Colon.

Why there's hope: It's hard to say there is. Johnson walks a lot of guys. He doesn't strike out nearly enough to make up for it. He gets flustered, has middling stuff, and can't seem to go any significant distance as a starter. If there is hope, it's that he's got a future in the bullpen. But generally speaking, don't be expecting to see Kris Johnson coming to a rotation near you any time soon.

There are some dishonorable mentions who managed to avoid making the greater part of the list. Jason Place seems to be cementing his place as another 1st-round bust, but hasn't really been particularly bad—just not good enough. Combine that with a promotion to Portland and a low-stock to begin with, and he stays down here. Che-Hsuan Lin has powered his way back from a gigantic early slump to the point where his numbers aren't bad even with bad luck. And Middlebrooks just barely topped teammate Pete Hissey thanks to the former's bigger hype.

But if this list has you down (which it shouldn't, really), don't worry. As I said, the opposite is true. The Sox system is littered with rising stars and former disappointments that have started to impress. Next week, I'll look at some of the top surprise players in the system.

Poll

Be honest: Are you expecting Lars at #1?

Yes. He's a super bust.

72 votes

No. He's just having a down year.

294 votes

#2. God (other prospect) is awful.

27 votes

No, but he should be USG, you dirty Lars apologist.

30 votes

423 votes | Poll has closed

This Week In White Sox Minor League Baseball

larry — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 10:00:29 -0000

C.J. Retherford

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This week:

The White Sox finally answered my question regarding how long they can keep a player with a line of .302/.445/.548 in AA when they promoted Tyler Flowers to Charlotte. From watching him in the Futures Game, I was satisfied with his abilities behind the plate. He appears to have shown some improvement and I can see why the club thinks he can play the position at the major league level, at least initially.
However, that still leaves unanswered my question of how long you can keep in A ball the guy leading all of the minor leagues in strikeouts. Dexter Carter had another impressive outing - 8 IP, 3 hits, 2 BB, 9 K, HBP. While he still needs to work on repeating his mechanics, particularly with his curve, it's blatantly obvious that A ball hitters are not - and have not - provided him a sufficient challenge.
Jared Mitchell made his professional debut Friday for the Intimidators and promptly lashed the first pitch he saw for a single. He finished the night 2-4 with a double.
Tyler Kuhn: .413/.429/.513 in 22 games for the Dash.
Carlos Quentin and Bartolo Colon continued their minor league rehab assignments. Quentin has gone .353/.463/.441 between Charlotte and Kannapolis. Colon also visited the low minors on Tuesday, due to the higher level affiliates being on their respective All-Star breaks, and toyed with A ball hitters: 7 IP, 7 hits, 1 BB, 8 K. His velocity has been good and he has supposedly been mixing in with more frequency pitches other than his fastballs.
Interview with Dan Hudson.
Carlos Torres pitched an inning in the AAA "All-Star" Game. His stuff was solid - nice movement on his cutter and also had good bite to his curve - and he struck out two. The major league ability is there but probably out of the bullpen.
Cole Armstrong celebrated his defeat of Donny Lucy for the position of guy who plays catcher when Flowers doesn't by being the other "All-Star" from the Knights. Lucy celebrated his demotion to the Barons by boiling our remaining inventory of Fusilli Donnys.
C.J. Retherford was named Southern League Hitter of the Week for the second time this year. On the season: .290/.332/.471.
Brent Morel is profiled.
The "struggling" Jordan Danks: .281/.373/.431.