SB Nation - Francisco Rodriguez

The Decline Of Francisco Rodriguez: A Story Told In Graphs

Eric Simon — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:00:34 -0000

The Race To "In The Best Shape Of His Life"

James Kannengieser — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:00:17 -0000

One of the great clichés of spring training is the declaration that Player X is "in the best shape of his life." Usually a sportswriter conveys the message but it's not uncommon for the player to deliver it himself. We're far away from pitchers and catchers but this hot stove season is exasperating. A poll to determine who people think will be the first Met declared "in the best shape of his life" (or some variant) is more attractive to me right now then fretting over a rumor by some random dude who Tweeted that the Mets want to sign Johnny Damon. Here are some candidates, followed by the poll. Feel free to add other suggestions/justifications:

Oliver Perez - He has to be the favorite in this race. After about as disastrous a 2009 as possible, and reports that he let himself go during the World Baseball Classic, Ollie is spending the offseason in Arizona at the Athletes Performance Institute. For $12 million a year, he better be in the best shape of this life by March 2010 if he has any pride in what he does.

Francisco Rodriguez - I have no way of confirming this, but it appeared that Frankie put on a few pounds this past season, atleast compared to his Angels days. More importantly, and verifiably, his peripherals slipped across the board. Strange, factoring his switch from the tougher AL to the NL. His velocity didn't slip though, and in fact slightly increased from 2008. A fit Frankie would be pumped up and ready to earn that vesting option from hell.

Daniel Murphy - Discussion of Murphy's work ethic became banal awhile ago. He would contend for this crown in any year, if only because people seem to love writing about his killer drive for success. He also has something to prove next season, especially if the Mets don't sign a free agent first baseman.

Jose Reyes - Jose might be this year's version of Luis Castillo. He suffered an injury and seemed to draw the ire of the fans, for various reasons. A report of Jose being in the best shape of his life might be disconcerting - it implies that he trained like an animal. I'd rather hear reports that he was cautious and didn't train too hard or too early. He has million dollar legs and they need to be taken care of. However, given his intensity and love for the game it wouldn't be surprising to see him first to earn the "best shape" moniker.

Jeff Francoeur - Just because.

Dark Horse: Nick Evans - Nasty Nick couldn't do anything to grab Jerry Manuel's attention in late 2009 so he needs to make a splash this spring. His plan should be to become so ripped that no one, not even Professor Jerry, will be able to ignore his flawlessly toned pectorals, biceps and quads. Piazza-esque batting practice displays in Port St. Lucie will follow. Free weights and 50 Gram Slams are on the path to glory for young Nick.

Poll

Who will be first to be declared "in the best shape of his life"?

Interesting Free Agent Rankings

gondeee — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:33:52 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

Billy Wagner could wind up in an Atlanta Braves uniform next year.

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Keith Law ranks the top-50 free agents at ESPN Insider. Some interesting notes:

He lists Mike Gonzalez 16th, ahead of Rafael Soriano, saying they are the two best relievers on the market, but he considers Gonzo healthier and more valuable from the left side.
Rafael Soriano is 19th, and the thing that jumped out at me is that Law says he should be looking for K-Rod type money in a contract. Francisco Rodriguez got a 3-year, $37 million deal after leading the AL in saves, Soriano has been a full-time closer for less than a year, and as my 2009 review of him showed, he regressed throughout 2009. I can't see a team desperate enough to give Soriano that type of money, or even close. Maybe I'm misjudging the market for relievers.
Billy Wagner is ranked 23rd, and Law says of him that the biggest concern is if he can handle the closer's workload, and that an incentive-laden contract for games finished would make sense for the signing team. I can see the Braves being open to something along those lines.
He mentions a Japanese reliever named Ryota Igarashi, and I can see the Braves taking a chance on him if he chooses to come to the States.
Adam LaRoche is listed 29th, and while the review is not glowing -- pointing out his overall averageness and his first half swoon -- Law seems to think that some team will still pay him like a regular first baseman in both salary and years. This could easily put the Braves out of the running. I still think our best option is to offer him arbitration and act excited if he accepts, keeping him around for one more year.
I noticed that there were a lot of free agent second basemen. Teams needing a second baseman and not wanting to give up the draft picks to sign one of the free agents may create a market for Kelly Johnson.

Good overview of the free agents by Law, if you're an insider you should check it out.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Valverde

davoag — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Valverde found out how much money he could save with Geico...

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I recently read these two posts on Sabernomics by JC Bradbury about free agency. They got me thinking about how the Astros crop of free agents fits into the market, what kinds of deals comparable players got last season and what we could expect the (former) hometown boys to get this winter. Thus, another mini-series of posts on free agency.

[Sidenote 1: It's also worth noting that our first profile, Valverde, plays a position where the number of players doesn't necessarily correspond to openings on teams. Relievers can market themselves as closers without having vacated that position, thus making for a possibly over-glutted market where some guys will have to sign for significantly less as setup men]

Just the other day, I argued that the Astros should not offer Jose Valverde arbitration. My thinking was that Houston would be on the hook for way too much money, since Valverde would most likely accept the arbitration offer to get a big payday (albeit a one-year payday).

This may or may not be a popular opinion around these parts, so I thought we could look at the 2008 offseason to see what kind of contracts closer got. I ran down the biggies, the Type A's and a few other contracts that are similar to Valverde's numbers. For reference, El Papa Grande earned 8 million in 2009 and pitched 54 1/3 innings, striking out 56 and walking 21. Valverde converted 25 of 29 save opportunities and gave up five home runs. FanGraphs puts his value at a solid 3 million.

[Sidenote 2: I am skeptical of how WAR rates relievers, but after combing through some of this data, it looks like it comes close to nailing down closers, at least. Take that for what it's worth in the rest of this article]

The Comparables

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, New York Mets

Contract Details: 3 years, 37 million (2m bonus, 09-8.5m, 10-11.5m, 11, 11.5m, 12-17.5m option)

Notes: K-Rod was not worth his contract last season, earning a value of just 1.5 million. Though relievers are typically devalued in WAR, I found that this wasn't necessarily the case with closers. Plenty of the contemporaries on this list had good, valuable seasons in the past. For instance, K-Rod was worth 17 million from 2007 to 2008. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to get injured. This contract would appear to be the upper range of Valverde's money.

Kerry Wood, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Contract Details: 2 years, 20.5 million (09-10m, 10-10.5m, 11-11m option)

Notes: Wood was worth 1.9 million in 2009 after totaling 10 million in value the previous season. His contract seemed to be in line with that, though his performance didn't suggest it would continue. It should be noted that only one reliever got a three-year deal. The rest had to settle for two-year deals or one-year fliers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Contract Details: 2 years, 17.5 million (09-8.5m, 10-9m, 11-9m option)

Notes: This would appear to be the kind of deal that makes sense for Valverde. Fuentes marked one of the few Type A closers that was both offered arbitration and signed with a team in the offseason. We'll get to a couple other examples in a minute, but for now, let's say Fuentes did much better n 2008 than Valverde did last season, but still couldn't land a deal longer than two years. His almost 9 million average is just above what Valverde earned in 2009, and would certainly be a starting place for any arbitration discussion.

The Other Type A's

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Contract Details: 1 year, 6 million (re-signed for 1 year, 8 million with an '11 option of 7 million)

Notes: Hoffman shows the other side of the coin for Valverde. The Padres did not offer Hoffman arbitration heading into last offseason, meaning a team would not have to give up draft picks to sign him. Despite coming off an injury-plagued season, the Brewers gave Hoffman a 6 million dollar tryout in 2009. The venerable saves champ was worth 6.7 million last season, so he performed to the contract and was rewarded with another one year deal.

Juan Cruz, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.25m, 10-3.25m, 11-4m option)

Notes: Cruz was a surprise sign as a Type A free agent, since he had the heaviest cost, yet wasn't a closer. Of course, he was not good at all in 50 relief innings for the Royals this season, but this is Dayton Moore we're talking about. He'll do anything. As the quirkiest signing of last winter, Cruz fits right in. How much his situation will impact Valverde's is less clear. Cruz wasn't used the same way and didn't have the same relative value. Still, he got a contract in line with many middle relievers that will form the base of the reliever market.

The Outlier

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 9.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.5m, 11-5.25m option)

Notes: What did I say about Moore? He gave a 9.5 million dollar contract to Kyle Farnsworth, he of the ever-straight 150 MPH fastball. Of course, Trey Hillman felt obliged to use him in bizarre situations, confounding guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski. Farnsworth probably earned more money last season than he should have, but he was still worth 3 million, according to FanGraphs. That's also what Valverde was worth, as a point of reference.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Ryan Franklin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6.5 million (signed Sept. 1, 2009)

Notes: Franklin saved 38 games for the Cardinals in 2009, but will be heading into his Age 37 season. The Cardinals wisely locked him up for a reasonable 6.5 million over two seasons. That significantly lowers the salary precedent for a guy like Valverde, though, as his agent will have to work off a contract like Soria's to get comparable numbers.

Heath Bell, RHP, San Diego Padres

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million (2008)

Notes: Bell will be due a big raise in 2010, since he led the NL with 42 saves in 2009. Heading into another year of arbitration, the Padres may decide a closer is not a luxury they're willing to splurge on, making Bell tradeable. I'd expect him to fetch anywhere between 4-6 million in arbitration, so that's the number a team's looking at if they go and get Bell. That also means Bell would be that much cheaper than a guy like Valverde on the open market.

Forecast for Valverde

El Papa Grande is one of nine different pitchers who could market themselves as closers this offseason, including Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyons. Now, most people would argue that Valverde is the best of the crop, but that also carries a price. We can surmise from last year's market that even Valverde will not get more than a three year deal, and that his ceiling is probably around 10 million. Coming off an injury plagued season, though, means his market will be compressed slightly. Add to that the more reasonable deals signed by Joakim Soria (3 years, 8.75 million) and Franklin, and Valverde will be lucky to get 8m per season. In arbitration, though? The Astros risk paying him anywhere from 3 million to 11 million next season if they offer arb. and he accepts. Given that Wade will have around 15-17 million to work with, is it worth eating up that much of the budget for a closer?

My assumption is the Astros will decline to offer him arbitration and he will sign a two year deal for somewhere around 18 million, with a possible third year option for 10 million. I won't guess who'd give him that contract, but looking at both the market and last year's offseason, those numbers seem right.

Regarding J.P. Howell's "Issues" As Closer

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:28:08 -0000

I've heard and read a few comments saying the Rays really need to invest in a closer - oxymoron - because J.P. Howell just isn't cut out of the job. The Rays should sign someone like [Veteran Pitcher] so Howell can go back to roving as a fireman and leave the saves to a more qualified arm. Naturally, I was befuddled when I viewed his ERA in save situations. ERA lacks in quality and I would never encourage using it as a meaningful measure, but the casual fan eats it up like chocolate-coated ham. Have a look for yourselves:

Situation	IP	SO%	uBB%	HR%	ERA	FIP
Sv	26	32.8	14.7	2.6	2.77	3.97
Non-Sv	40.7	25.3	8	2.5	2.88	3.5

A better ERA and only a slightly worse FIP. Here's a list of things we know after looking at the above data:

1. J.P. Howell is a good relief pitcher.

2. 40 innings is not a large sample size and leaves a lot of room for variance.

3. 26 innings is even smaller.

4. Howell's issues with walks were almost evened out by his increase in strikeouts.

5. The Rays shut him down due to fatigue.

Nothing indicates Howell is incapable of closing games. Jonathan Papelbon had a 3.1 FIP in save situations this year. Francisco Rodriguez went to the N.L. and still had a FIP around 4.37 in save situations. Jose Valverde's was north of 3.7 too. The list goes on and on.

I don't particularly care if Howell is the closer or not next year - heck, him not being the closer probably saves on arbitration costs - but to say he "doesn't have ‘it'" or buckled in his chance is ridiculous. He pitched fine, and if you're willing to make broad statements like that based on less than 30 innings of work then bigger issues are in play.

Howell may or may not close next year, but it won't be because he somehow failed in his duties this season.

Note: I hand-calculated the FIP and used a constant of 3.2. So the exact totals are about a third of a run off FanGraph's FIP.

2009 Mets Transaction Register, Part 1

Eric Simon — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 09:01:02 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Who is he thanking: Poseiden or Ra? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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The wretched 2009 season is over, so enter a glut of retrospectives, commentary, and analyses chronicling the whole mess. We'll kick things off by taking a look back at the moves -- trades and signings -- the Mets made since the 2008 season ended unceremoniously (for the Mets, anyway). There's a lot to wade through, so we're going to break this into at least two parts.

November 18, 2008

Signed Andy Green: Andy saw just five plate appearances with the Mets in 2009, spending most of the season with Triple-A Buffalo, where he hit .259./.330/.379 with a .326 wOBA and .5 hWAR. This now qualifies as the most anyone has ever written about Andy Green.

December 3, 1998

Signed Nelson Figueroa: Figgy had a 3.07 tRA in 112 innings pitched with Buffalo and a 5.06 tRA in 58 innings with the Mets. He made the league minimum (less if you consider the time spent on a minor league deal), and has generally been pretty mediocre in his two seasons since returning to the states. He's a useful guy to keep around Triple-A to make the occasional emergency start, and might even be passable as a swingman/mop jockey.

December 9, 2008

Signed Francisco Rodriguez for 3 years/$37 million plus vesting 2012 option worth $17.5 million: We've already covered this. The guaranteed money is probably too much for a good reliever with diminishing velocity, declining strikeout rates, and spotty control, but the overlooked option makes this a brutal deal for the Mets. It seemed like a good idea at the time, ubt unless Frankie's arm falls off the Mets will be on the hook for $46 million over the next three seasons, the mere thought of which just made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Rodriguez is hardly a bad pitcher, he's just not a great pitcher, and the Mets are paying him to be brilliant. They might be able to swap him for someone else's bad contract -- Milton Bradley's name continues to come up -- but I don't think the Mets are down on Rodriguez at all, let alone as nauseated as we are.

December 11, 2008

Drafted Darren O'Day from the Angels in the Rule 5 draft: This looked like a pretty good move for the Mets at the time, though O'Day only pitched three innings before being waived to make room for Figueroa to make a start in Mike Pelfrey's absence. Few tears were cried over O'Day's departure, until he went on to strike out 54 in 55.2 innings with the Rangers while posting a 2.83 tRA, 11.8% swinging strike rate and a sub-1.00 WHIP. His .244 BABIP might be unsustainably low, but the Mets' loss was the Rangers' gain.

Traded Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, Joe Smith, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto in a three-team deal with the Mariners and Indians, getting back J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed: Ugh. This one looks worse with each passing day. Green is probably the best player going to the Mets in this deal. Putz was spotty and then injured, and his outlook for 2010 is questionable. He'll pitch, I assume, but the Mets hold an $8.6 million club option with a $1 million buyout, and his return to Queens is hardly guaranteed. Reed was worth -.7 WAR with the Mets in 2009, and is apparently terrible at everything. Endy got hurt but he's Endy which just makes this trade worse for reasons both rational (his leather-flashing puts Rob Halford to shame) and irrational (he's Endy!). Joe Smith was so-so with the Indians; he's a younger, slighty shabbier Sean Green. Carp had a decent season with Triple-A Tacoma and hit .315/.415/.463 in 65 plate appearances with the Mariners. Vargas was nothing special, and managed to allow 16 homeruns in 91.2 innings. Heilman was traded in a separate deal from Seattle to the Cubs, and was about what you'd expect (good strikeouts, too many walks, mirthless scowl). Carrera had a .408 wOBA with Double-A West Tenn. Cleto made eight starts with Single-A Clinton, striking out 24 and walking eleven in 25.1 innings. If Putz had stayed healthy and effective things would look a whole lot different, but as it stands this deal gets worse with each passing day.

December 23, 2008

Signed Omir Santos: We rag on Santos here a lot, mostly because he's bad, but also because the Mets think he's actually good. The truth is that he's pretty bad, at hitting at least, but the Mets paid him nothing and he was worth almost half a win with his bat, and he might be pretty good with the glove, too. The truth is that the Mets could do worse than Santos in a backup role next year, but the frightening reality is that he may be more than that.

January 9, 2009

Signed Tim Redding for 1 year/$2.25 million: Looked like a decent deal for an average starting pitcher. Then he missed the beginning of the season with a shoulder problem. Then he was below average for 120 innings with the Mets. Whatever. I'm not losing any sleep over this one. It was a pretty good one-year gamble.

January 13, 2009

Signed Alex Cora for 1 year/$2 million: A .291 wOBA and -3.7 UZR in 82 games, the best thing you can say about him is that he had the good sense to get hurt and not further hamper the Mets with his sub-replacement ballplaying.

January 16, 2009

Signed Casey Fossum: Appeared in two games for Buffalo and three for the Mets, doing little of anything worth mentioning. Spent most of the season with Triple-A Iowa in the Cubs' system.

January 20, 2009

Signed Cory Sullivan for 1 year/$600k: Posted a semi-respectable .332 wOBA in 156 plate appearances with the Mets, but was unspectacular in the outfield. FanGraphs has him worth $400k, so this signing was hardly a disaster. Nothing to get too excited about either, I suppose.

ALDS Preview: Breaking down the Los Angeles Angels' key players

Randy Booth — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:01:05 -0000

More photos » by Chris Pizzello - AP

2 months ago: The Los Angeles Angels mob the field after clinching the AL West title with an 11-0 win over the Texas Rangers in an MLB baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Monday, Sept. 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello)

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Today is the day: the first game of the American League Division Series. The Red Sox are in Los Angeles prepping for the Halos as we speak. Jon Lester, getting warm. Jason Bay, doing voodoo on his bat. Terry Francona, shoving chew in his mouth like it's going out of style.

With that, her is your primer on the Angels' key players for the start of tonight's series.

Lineup

Chone Figgins

#9 / Third Base / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 5-8

Weight: 180

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jan 22, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Chone Figgins	158	615	114	183	30	7	5	54	101	114	42	17	.298	.395	.393

Here's the good news: Tim Wakefield will not be pitching in the ALDS, meaning Chone Figgins can not steal off of him. Figgins' biggest asset is his speed. The Angels have stolen 15 bags against the Sox this year (second most against any team behind the Yankees), and Figgins has stolen six of those, the most steals he has against any team this season (and that's in just nine games). Figgins has gotten on base at a .395 clip against the Sox this season, so it'll be important to try and keep him off the basepaths or he'll do a lot of damage.

Bobby Abreu

#53 / Right Field / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-0

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Mar 11, 1974

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Bobby Abreu	152	563	96	165	29	3	15	103	94	113	30	8	.293	.390	.435

Abreu was one of the best pickups of the offseason when it comes to "guys you don't expect much out of." The stats really don't lie with Abreu -- he's a solid player that doesn't have too many holes in his game (well, there's that defense thing. But that's negligible, right?). The way Abreu can hurt the Sox is just by forcing a lot of pitches. He's currently 5th in the AL in pitches per plate appearance at 4.21 (Figgins is 4th at 4.22, but our man Kevin Youkilis leads at 4.40). If the Sox can get Abreu out early in counts, they'll save a lot of pitches for later in the game.

Torii Hunter

#48 / Center Field / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-2

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 18, 1975

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Torii Hunter	119	451	74	135	26	1	22	90	47	92	18	4	.299	.366	.508

Hunter is one of the Halos' bigger power threats, but not their biggest. Hunter missed a lot of games this year, but he was still able to put up a lot of good numbers -- in 119 games, his .869 OPS was the best of his career. Like a lot of players in this lineup, he's a threat to do almost anything. He'll hit home runs, steal bases, walk at a pretty good rate; he's their No. 3 hitter for a reason.

Vladimir Guerrero

#27 / Designated Hitter / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-3

Weight: 235

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 09, 1976

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Vladimir Guerrero	100	383	59	113	16	1	15	50	19	56	2	1	.295	.334	.460

This is not the same Vladimir Guerrero you're used to, but he's still pretty good. With that said, he's striking out more this season and he's walking less than he ever has. His power is down, too, but he still can't be labeled a "non-threat." If you leave him a flat curveball, he probably will deposit it into the bleachers.

Juan Rivera

#20 / Left Field / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 03, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Juan Rivera	138	529	72	152	24	1	25	88	36	57	0	1	.287	.332	.478

Rivera is kind of going the opposite route of Vlad. Rivera, in his first full season, is walking more and striking out less, while putting up solid power numbers. He's also a pretty solid fielder in left (except this moment -- what happened there?). Fortunately, Rivera has struggled against the Sox this season, hitting just .194 in eight games.

Kendry Morales

#19 / First Base / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-1

Weight: 225

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jun 20, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kendry Morales	152	566	86	173	43	2	34	108	46	117	3	7	.306	.355	.569

Clearly the Angels' MVP this season, Morales is just one of many scary hitters in this lineup. He leads the team in home runs (34), RBIs (107), slugging (.571) and OPS (.927). He also leads in strikeouts, which may be one of his few weaknesses. The good thing is that he's cooled down this past month, hitting just .269 in September and October with four home runs. He also sported a .200 batting average against the Sox in 35 at-bats this year.

Howie Kendrick

#47 / Second Base / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 5-10

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jul 12, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Howie Kendrick	105	374	61	109	21	3	10	61	20	71	11	4	.291	.334	.444

Geez. There isn't a break in this lineup, is there? Kendrick doesn't walk a lot, but he can usually get a bat on the ball. He doesn't have much power, but he's decent on the basepaths and is an above-average defender. He'd probably be a bigger factor on a team without such a good lineup.

Mike Napoli

#44 / Catcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-0

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 31, 1981

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mike Napoli	114	382	60	104	22	1	20	56	40	103	3	3	.272	.350	.492

Mike Napoli, or better known as this guy, has always seemed to be a thorn in the Sox's side. He has three home runs against the Sox this year, tied (with the Blue Jays) for the most he's hit against any team. Like Morales though, Napoli has struggled lately, hitting just .192 in September and October. He strikes out quite a bit, but he has a lot of power. Memo: don't give him anything to hit.

Erick Aybar

#2 / Short Stop / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 5-10

Weight: 170

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Jan 14, 1984

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Erick Aybar	137	504	70	157	23	9	5	58	30	54	14	7	.312	.353	.423

Another guy that hits for average. But luckily, Aybar doesn't have the power as most of his other teammates have. He is kind of a pest at the plate though, because he doesn't strike out very often. The Sox should be more worried about what he does on defense, as he mans the shortstop position pretty well. Aybar is expected to start against right handed pitchers.

Maicer Izturis

#13 / Short Stop / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 5-8

Weight: 170

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Sep 12, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Maicer Izturis	114	387	74	116	22	3	8	65	35	41	13	5	.300	.359	.434

There's not a big difference between Aybar and Izturis. Izturis hits for average, but not much power and plays solid defense. Just another guy that can make contact with the ball, basically.

Pitching Staff

John Lackey

#41 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-6

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 23, 1978

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - John Lackey	11-8	27	27	1	1	0	0	176.1	177	84	75	17	47	139	3.83	1.27

The ace of this Angels staff will be on the hill for game one against the Sox. Lackey has pretty much been his normal self this season after a rocky start which saw his ERA at 6.05 after May. In the second half he rebounded though, going 7-4 with a 3.05 ERA. He only faced the Sox once this season, but it was a good start, holding the Sox to two runs in 7.2 innings. Thankfully, Dice-K was pretty good in that game, too. Lackey started two games in last year's ALDS and did pretty well against the Sox, allowing just four runs in 13.2 innings. The best thing the Sox can do against Lackey is what they try to do against any pitcher: make him throw, throw, throw. The Sox can beat Lackey -- they've done it before -- but patience is the best asset they can have against him.

Jered Weaver

#36 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-7

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 04, 1982

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jered Weaver	16-8	33	33	4	2	0	0	211.0	196	91	88	26	66	174	3.75	1.24

This season was Weaver's best since his rookie campaign. He's striking out batters at a consistent rate (7.42 per 9) and batters are hitting .248 off him. He is walking more batters and giving up more home runs than normal, but it's not too far off his career average. After a rough July (6.88 ERA) and August (4.58), he allowed just 13 runs in 37.2 innings in September and October. More bad news, though: Weaver is a deceptive pitcher who has handled the Sox this season in two starts. He allowed just one earned run in 13.2 innings and notched 12 strikeouts. He'll start game two.

Scott Kazmir

#22 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-0

Weight: 190

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jan 24, 1984

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Scott Kazmir	2-2	6	6	0	0	0	0	36.1	28	8	7	1	10	26	1.73	1.05

Yup, we have to face Kazmir again -- except this time he's not wearing Tampa Bay colors. And since that trade that sent him packing to the West Coast, Kazmir has been pretty dominate, allowing just seven runs in more than 36 innings of work. This looks more like the 2007 Kazmir than the pre-trade Kazmir of 2009. His strikeouts are actually down with the Halos, but so are his walks (from 4.05 per 9 to 2.48). Batters are also hitting just .215 against Kazmir since the trade. He has always pitched well in Fenway too, notching a 3.05 ERA in 73.2 innings. The Sox will find success against Kazmir if he sees the Sox and thinks he's a Ray again -- maybe he'll mentally crack. That'd be nice.

Joe Saunders

#51 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 16, 1981

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Joe Saunders	16-7	31	31	1	1	0	0	186.0	202	102	95	29	64	101	4.60	1.43

Saunders will start game No. 4, but let's hope we won't have to see him. The good thing is, if the Sox do face Saunders, he's not as good as he was last year. More walks, more home runs and overall, just better success for hitters this season against Saunders. He wasn't that good against the Sox this season either, allowing six walks and 15 hits in 12.2 innings.

Ervin Santana

#54 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-2

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Dec 12, 1982

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ervin Santana	8-8	24	23	2	2	0	0	139.2	159	83	78	24	47	107	5.03	1.47

The Sox won't see Santana start a game, but will most likely see him come out of the bullpen. Santana missed a lot of time this season (trust me, I was his faithful fantasy owner) and just hasn't been able to replicate his 08 season. He struck out two less batters per nine innings than last season and is walking at a higher rate (1.93 in '08, 3.07 this season). The Sox shouldn't have a lot of trouble hitting Santana -- if they see him.

Brian Fuentes

#40 / Pitcher / Los Angeles Angels

Height: 6-4

Weight: 230

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Aug 09, 1975

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brian Fuentes	1-5	65	0	0	0	48	7	55.0	53	24	24	6	24	46	3.93	1.40

The closer of the staff, Fuentes jumped ship from Colorado last season to replace Francisco Rodriguez. The results haven't been to pleasant: his ERA is up more than a run, his WHIP is up 0.3 and his strikeouts are down. That's the NL-AL switch for you. Despite his struggles, he had 48 saves on the season, the best in baseball. (This doesn't really say much for him, except the opportunities given to him. He blew seven saves to go along with it -- fourth most in baseball.)

Poll

How will the ALDS between the Red Sox and Angels finish?

Red Sox in 3

22 votes

Red Sox in 4

153 votes

Red Sox in 5

62 votes

Angels in 3

36 votes

Angels in 4

57 votes

Angels in 5

28 votes

358 votes | Poll has closed

Scott Kazmir Tuneup is Angels Win #96

Rev Halofan — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 22:39:58 -0000

More photos » by George Nikitin - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Angels' Gary Mathews Jr. is greeted at the dugout after scoring in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009 in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/George Nikitin)

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Final Score in Oakland: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 4, Oakland Athletics 2

Pitcher Scott Kazmir looked sharp in his short outing Saturday afternoon. He allowed 3 hits and a walk in 5 IP, striking out 3. Of his 76 pitches, 53 were strikes and he looked ready for his next start a week from tomorrow in Fenway Park. Matt Palmer was impressive in 2 innings of relief, striking out 3 with only 28 pitches thrown.

Angels benchwarmers drove in all four runs, with a Gary Matthews RBI double in the 4th inning complementing Robb Quinlan's run-scoring single in the 2nd and a double in the 4th that scored Matthews. Brian Fuentes pitched a scoreless 9th for his 48th Save of the season, 2nd all time for an Angel pitcher single season mark to Francisco Rodriguez last season. Fuentes leads the majors in Saves.

Poll

Panther of the Game

Erick Aybar

17 votes

Scott Kazmir

154 votes

Robb Quinlan

87 votes

258 votes | Poll has closed

Horrible Season Going Down In Flames

Sam Page — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 01:50:35 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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Francisco Rodriguez entered tonight's game with a 3.09 ERA and a 3.76 FIP (what's this?). He left the game with a 3.72 ERA. In a season in which injuries revealed the underlying depth issues that have made Omar Minaya's Mets so disappointing, a typically high-wired inning gone awry revealed the unexceptional Francisco Rodriguez, who will, in all likelihood, collect 43 million dollars over the next three years. Remember those articles about how Rodriguez's velocity somehow went down intentionally last season and how he couldn't wait to crank it up again? It never went back up. The Mets will be paying a good, not great, reliever star position-player money for the next three seasons. And that was Minaya's good move of the offseason. That was also the good news from tonight.

As I am sure you have all heard by now, Jose Reyes tore his already injured hamstring trying to run, making surgery all but certain. What gets lost in the talk about pitch counts, inning caps, Verducci effect, and "bad mechanics," is the single biggest deterrent to pitcher injuries, the pitcher's judgment. Similarly, while it's reckless to blame the training staff, the doctors, or whoever else in what can probably be labeled as a massive mishandling, one thing seems obvious: no one knows Jose Reyes' body and its limitations better than Jose Reyes. That's why reports of Reyes pushing himself to dispel the doubts of teammates and media members calling him lazy are angering, and it's probably why it has reached this point. While I don't know whether the team ignored Reyes or pushed him too hard in his rehab, it certainly seems that way, and fan perception is probably more important than reality to the organization at this point. This post is not crescendoing into some thundering condemnation of team management, because by now it's pretty apparent that any delay in their firings is just penny-pinching. I just want to reflect on what a season this has been, in which the Mets can be swept by the Nationals in the most embarrassing fashion possible, then hold a post-game press conference to announce the career-threatening mismanagement of their star player's leg injuries.

Justin Maxwell Hits A Walk-Off Grand Slam!!! Washington Nationals Win 7-4, Sweep New York Mets.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 00:15:20 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' Justin Maxwell cleans the shaving creamfromn his face after hitting a grand slam in the ninth inning against the New York Mets in a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 7-4. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!!!!!

• Justin Maxwell works the count full with the bases loaded and two down in the ninth with NY ahead 4-3, and J-Max takes the Mets' high-priced closer Francisco Rodriguez deeeeeep to left and GONE for a walk-off Grand Slam in the last home game of the season in Nationals Park...DO YOU BELIEVE!!!!

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

See How The Mets Fans Took It At: Amazin' Avenue.

Check Out the Post Game And The Full Game Report (You Know, For The Completists), AFTER THE JUMP!!!

• Shadows from the stadium lights and the upper deck of Nationals Park are stretched in a large swath across the field of play from the left field grass, over third, the mound and wrapping around first as DC lefty John Lannan starts the final home game of the season against the New York Mets with a scoreless frame that Mets’ starter Tim Redding matches.

• Jeff Francoeur thinks for a moment that he’s hit a two-run HR to left off John Lannan in the top of the second, but it’s ruled a double upon further review, though the two runners who would have scored if it had been called correctly as a HR cross anyway when Fernando Tatis follows with a sac fly to right and Omir Santos hits an RBI single. 2-0 NY after two.

• Mets’ right-hander Tim Redding retires the first ten batters he faces before Elijah Dukes singles up the middle with one down in the fourth. Redding strands Dukes, but the Nationals finally get on the board in the fifth. Josh Willingham hits a leadoff single to center, moves to second when Josh Bard walks, third when Ian Desmond grounds out, and the Hammer comes home on a sac fly by Alberto Gonzalez to make it 2-1 NY after five.

• E: 140, 141...Angel Pagan hits a weak grounder to short with one down in the sixth, and Ian Desmond misplays what should have been the second out. E: 140. One out later, David Wright rrrrips a grounder to third, and Ryan Zimmerman sidesteps it and tries to snatch it with his glove and misses, E: 141. OUTCOME: Two on, two out. Carlos Beltran singles to center to score Pagan, 3-1 Mets’ lead after five and a half.

• THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! Ryan Zimmerman gives the DC Faithful reason to believe with a solo shot to center off Mets’ reliever Bobby Parnell in the eighth inning. Zimmerma---THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! hits his 33rd of ‘09 to make it 3-2 NY.

• E: 142. Ryan Zimmerman’s always had a habit of side-stepping hard hit grounders and trying to snap it up with his glove, but he’s missed two tonight and it might be time to start getting in front of them, cause his 17th error costs DC another run. OUTCOME: Jeff Francoeur reaches on the Zimmerman error and takes second. Fernando Tatis singles Frenchy over to third, and Omir Santos puts a perfect hit and run single behind the runner at second to score Francoeur for 4-2 NY lead...

• And Now The Epic Bottom Of The Ninth...

The New York Mets gave Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-year/$37 M dollar deal to close games for them, and the hard-throwing right-hander, who set the Major League record for saves last season, was called upon in the ninth tonight with the Mets desperate for a win against the pesky Washington Nationals who were threatening to sweep and seriously embarrass New York. Rodriguez, who'd converted 34 of 40 save opportunities this season, started Alberto Gonzalez with a 91 mph heater for a called strike and followed with a change that Gonzalez ripped to short and beat to first, sliding in headfirst ahead of Wilson Valdez's throw. Pinch hitter Mike Morse worked the count full in the next at bat and lined a K-Rod change back up the middle. Willie Harris fouled off one bunt attempt before getting a successful sac down to move Gonzalez and pinch runner Jorge Padilla into scoring position for Elijah Dukes, who worked the count full and took a gutsy ball four to load the bases for Ryan Zimmerman. Zim K'd swinging on the third pitch he saw, (curve for a called strike, fastball fouled off and an 0-2 change), to bring up Adam Dunn. The Big Walky battled K-Rod to a full count and took three straight out of the zone for a bases loaded walk and a one-run game which NY still led 4-3. Enter Justin Maxwell:

• Justin Maxwell...(1) Took a curve for ball one from Francisco Rodriguez then watched as a (2) second curve dropped in and the veteran hit the low outside corner with a (3) fastball for a called strike two. A four-seam fastball followed (4) that Maxwell took for ball two, 2-2, and then fouled off a fastball (5) and took a change outside (6) and looow to work the count full against K-Rod. 4-seam fastball up high (7), fouled off, four-seam fastball down low, (8) fouled off, and then a third straight fastball (9) that gets LAUNCHED TO LEFT AND GONE!!! GRAND SLAM!!! GRAND SLAM!!! Justin Maxwell wins it with a walk-off Grand SLAM!!! Nationals win, 7-4!!!

FULL GAME REPORT:

New York Mets At Washington Nationals. Game 158 Of 162.

Josh Willingham takes a knee to catch a low line drive from Angel Pagan. Anderson Hernandez makes Willingham spring to his left and leap up for a second hard-hit line out. David Wright flies to right and Elijah Dukes stares into the sun and makes the catch...Jeff Francoeur catches the first out for Tim Redding off Willie Harris’ bat. Elijah Dukes goes the other way with a high fly to right. Ryan Zimmerman swings through a high fastball to end the first inning.

Carlos Beltran walks to start the second and Jeff Francoeur lines one off the very top of the wall for what might be a HR? They’re taking a look. It’s ruled a double. Fernando Tatis flies out to right, Elijah Dukes tries for a throw home, but has no chance, 1-0 NY. Francoeur takes third on the bad throw. Omir Santos scores Francoeur with a single to center. 2-0 Mets. Lannan gets the DP grounder from Wilson Valdez, Alberto Gonzalez to Ian Desmond to Adam Dunn, double play...Adam Dunn flies out to left field for the first out of DC’s second. Josh Willingham grounds weakly to short. Josh Bard pushes Angel Pagan back to the track to end the bottom of the frame.

Tim Redding starts the third against Lannan with a ground ball to third for the first out. Angel Pagan lines out to Ian Desmond. Anderson Hernandez sends Elijah Dukes breaking back but he makes catch to end the Mets’ third...Ian Desmond’s grounder to short is cut off by David Wright, who fires to first. Alberto Gonzalez grounds out to short. John Lannan is the ninth-straight Nationals’ batter retired.

David Wright skies one to Dukes in right. Carlos Beltran’s way out in front of a two-strike change. Jeff Francoeur grounds to third, Zimmerman snaps it up and throws to first to end NY’s fourth...Willie Harris hits a high fly ball to center, Carlos Beltran makes the catch. Elijah Dukes singles up the middle to break up Redding’s streak of ten-straight set down. Jeff Francoeur avoids the stands that stick out into right and catches a foul ball from Zimmerman. Adam Dunn just pulls a long fly foul and ends up lining out to first to end the fourth.

John Lannan throws a high two-strike fastball by Fernando Tatis. Omir Santos grounds out Ian Desmond at short. WIlson Valdez rolls the first pitch out to third and Ryan Zimmerman’s throw ends the Mets’ fifth...Josh Willingham starts DC’s fifth with a sharp single to center. Josh Bard works a walk. Ian Desmond hits a swinging sac bunt toward first to advance both runners. Alberto Gonzalez flies out to center to score Willingham from third, 2-1 NY. John Lannan slaps a two-out single through short. Willie Harris K’s swinging through a fastball outside to end the fifth.

Tim Redding K’s in the first AB of the sixth. Angel Pagan grounds to short, and Ian Desmond gets a bad hop and misplays it. E: 140. Anderson Hernandez pops out to Dukes in right after a long AB. David Wright rips a grounder through Zimmerman at third. E:141. Carlos Beltran singles up the middle to score Pagan from second, 3-1 New York. Jeff Francoeur flies out to right...Elijah Dukes drops a surprise bunt down the third base line and David Wright can’t make a play. Ryan Zimmerman pops out unproductively. Adam Dunn's up when a wild pitch moves Dukes to second. Dunn flies out unproductively to center. Josh Willingham swings at the first pitch and grounds out to end the frame.

Fernando Tatis lines to left and beats the throw to second for a leadoff double. Omir Santos flies out to right field. WIlson Valdez takes a two-out walk and Gary Sheffield gets pinch hit intentionals to bring up Angel Pagan. Pagan grounds to Ian Desmond, who takes the force at second...Bobby Parnell vs Bard. Bard battles for 10 pitches and eventually walks. Ian Desmond grounds into a force at second in the next AB. Desmond avoids a ground ball from Alberto Gonzalez and Anderson Hernandez tries to get the force at second, but his toss is late. Two runners safe. Pinch hitter Cristian Guzman pops out unproductively to third. Willie Harris works the count full. Willie Harris grounds out to second to end the seventh.

Zach Segovia’s on to pitch the top of the eighth. Anderson Hernandez K’s swinging to start the inning. David Wright grounds out to third. Carlos Beltran pops out to the infield and Ian Desmond’s catch ends NY’s eighth...Elijah Dukes gets jammed and grounds out to the mound. Parnell vs Zimmerman. Ryan Zimmerma--THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! HR to straight center, 3-2 NY. Pedro Feliciano comes on to face Dunn. Adam Dunn pops out. Sean Green vs Willingham. Josh Willingham grounds to third, David Wright fields and throws...by first, Hammer is safe, and he takes second. Justin Maxwell runs for the Hammer. Josh Bard works another walk to put two on for Ian Desmond. Desmond grounds up the middle, Anderson Hernandez gets there and tosses to second for the inning-ending force.

Jeff Francoeur vs Segovia in the ninth. Francoeur grounds sharply to third that Zimmerman can’t come up with, Zimmerman drops it and throws way over first, E: 142. Frenchy takes second. Fernando Tatis lines a single over short. Omir Santos smacks a hit and run single through second to bring Francoeur home, 4-2 NY. Wilson Valdez grounds back to the mound. Segovia gets one out at first. Ron Villone replaces Segovia and gets a weak grounder toward first from pinch hitter Daniel Murphy grounds out to first. Ryan Zimmerman throws out Angel Pagan to end the Mets’ half of the ninth...Alberto Gonzalez singles to short, deep in the hole and Gonalez beats Wilson Valdez's throw to first. Mike Morse makes a pinch hit appearance, and he singles to center!!! Jorge Padilla comes on to run. Two on for Willie Harris. Harris gets a sac bunt down. Second and third for Dukes!! Dukes works the count full and walks. Ryan Zimmerman K’s swinging through an 0-2 slider. Adam Dunn works the count full, and walks in a run!! 4-3 ballgame. Justin Maxwell works the count full, fouls off two fastballs, and then OH LORD!! IT’S GONE!! J-MAX takes K-ROD Deeeeeeeeeeep to left and GONE!! GRAND SLAM!!! GRAND SLAM!! GRAND SLAM!!! THE NATIONALS WIN!! THE NATIONALS WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7-4 final. Francisco Rodriguez is on to end it. Alberto Gonzalez reaches safely on a grounder deep in the hole at short.

Nationals now 55-103!!!