SB Nation - Luis Castillo

The Real Problem With The Mets (and why Mark DeRosa may be part of the solution)

Sam Page — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 11:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

The sassy attitude of a winner.

These days, it seems fashionable to point out "the Mets only focus on last years problems!" and then turn around to talk about the need for a starting pitcher ceaselessly without the slightest hint of irony. Maybe I'm a contrarian, but the Mets have other, arguably bigger, problems than the rotation. The middle infield is being manned by two players with serious red flags on all four legs; one, while "healthy," was a -10 run defensive secondbaseman, the other hasn't ran full-speed in nearly 8 months. At two offense-premium positions are players with a recent track record of having their bats disappear for months at a time. And most, obviously, the Mets have no catcher or leftfielder. Ah, but that core. Here's my rough win projection for the incomplete squad:

So assuming better health, the Mets are 10 wins better, but certainly not contenders. Bengie Molina and Jason Bay add 4-6 wins, depending on how you project each player's controversial defense. That brings the Mets into the 85-range, a swing of good luck from the wild card, but not going to march over the NL East into the playoffs. So where is the room for improvement?

The rotation, certainly, but to what extent? Santana and Pelfrey occupy 2 of the 5 spots. Some assortment of Maine and Niese will be at the back end, with the potential of Niese being the second best-pitcher on the staff. So that leaves Perez's spot, and probably another. Call me crazy, but I'm not totally ruling Perez out, although a responsible team would. After he lost the life on his fastball, he's spent the offseason at the training facility famous for conditioning Huston Street's pitching arm.

Regardless, knowing the Mets, this team is one average (or worse) pitcher away from calling it a rotation. That, combined with a little blind faith they'll pull in Bay, makes the left side of the infield the most suspect part of the roster. Luis Castillo is a decent hitter, but a totally unacceptable fielder. Really, the difference between the Mets getting good or poor production from Pelfrey and some second-tier, contact-heavy free agent like Joel Pineiro is just accepting Luis Castillo is a bench player and signing a new secondbaseman. A glut of unwanted secondbaseman remains on the market, most of them pretty decent fielders. Orlando Hudson. Felipe Lopez. Miguel Tejada... Mark DeRosa?

For these reasons, though, I'm not totally opposed to signing Mark DeRosa. Yes, he is a glorified bench player looking for a multi-year contract with starter money. At this point, however, just resign yourself to the fact the team is taking the video game approach to the offseason. In their eyes, they've found the best utility-infielder, back-up catcher, leftfielder, and catcher, and offered them all the most money in hopes of improving the team by brute force. Value be damned, if Mark DeRosa is the best bench player out there, the Mets will pay.

In fact, the bench might be a good place to add some wins. Most projection systems are hammering DeRosa's offense, but he's a late bloomer, coming off a laundry list of nagging and more serious injuries. Interestingly, the fans at fangraphs have projected him well above the usually optimistic Bill James projections. It's especially surprising because he's a free agent who has played for several teams recently, making me wonder which fanbase so fervently supports Mark DeRosa. Still, I like ~.340 wOBA as an offensive projection for the healthy DeRosa. Defensively, he is about a -7 defender at second, not good, but passable and better than Luis Castillo. Remember, Joel Pineiro survived with a similar player in Skip Schumaker at second last year.

To make it really work, I'd pair DeRosa with his left-handed clone, Kelly Johnson. Each could be used as a plus-defense back-up outfielder with infield experience and the upside of a starter's bat. Writing Castillo out of the picture completely, I would arrange the lineups like so:

It's a 3-position, 3-person platoon that optimizes defensive specialties and platoon splits!

Now you think I'm playing fantasy baseball, but if the Mets sign DeRosa, I could see a very similar situation. It would be characteristic of management to use DeRosa versus lefties in the ever-baffling Murphy-platoon idea, and Jerry would be eager to rest Castillo for a better hitter (he even tried Tatis there last season). And I haven't yet mentioned his grit and playoff beard!

Stop Saying Omar Minaya Only Goes After Latino Players

James Kannengieser — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:30:14 -0000

The "Omar Minaya only pursues Latino players" topic has appeared again this offseason and the propagators of this myth are out in full force. Perhaps it was brought on by the signings of Alex Cora, Henry Blanco and Elmer Dessens. Maybe embarrassing rubbish like this post is promoting it. Even the mainstream media has been involved, as Bill Madden of the Daily News, ~~deserving~~ winner of this year's J.G. Taylor Spink Award for excellence in baseball journalism, wrote the following in a recent column, only to have the word "Latin" later removed:

Mets? Did somebody say the Mets? They won't spend the money for Holliday, Bay or Lackey and apparently, they're only interested in signing low-budget Latin players...

It's sad that this topic still needs to be addressed. Looking at the racial makeup of the Mets 40-man roster, as provided by a comment from Mark last week, the Mets had 15 Latinos out of 39 players, or 38%. About 29% of MLB players are Latino, meaning the Mets have four more Latin American players on their roster than average. Wow, stop the presses! How many Latinos are presently on the World Champion Yankees' roster? Answer: 19 out of 37, good for 51%. This is irrefutable evidence that Brian Cashman only goes after Latino players. Let the Yankee fan outrage begin. Former Mariners GM Bill Bavasi signed Raul Ibanez, Carlos Silva and Adrian Beltre to free agent contracts in his short tenure, and traded for Miguel Olivo and Horacio Ramirez - he too must have only gone after Latinos!

There's more research to be done here I suppose, analyzing the racial breakdown of Mets trades, free agent contracts and the minor leagues under Omar. However, it's not worth mine or anyone's time indulging the uninformed masses who think a general manager would choose 1.5 WAR* Player A over 3.5 WAR Player B because Player A shares the same heritage.

* - If you like, substitute any metric or evaluator you think Omar and co. might use in lieu of WAR. The point remains the same.

Last winter, Omar's Mets were part of a blockbuster three team trade which included Mariners and Indians. In the biggest trade of his reign, at least in terms of player volume, he gave up four Latino players and received (gasp!) three white players in return. It had nothing to do with race. Omar wanted to upgrade the bullpen at seemingly any cost and he got his guy, J.J. Putz. Flawed evaluation of players? Almost certainly. Racial bias motivating a transaction? No, sorry. It's curious how transactions like this are conveniently ignored once the Omar racism watchdogs come out of their holes to spout absurdity. Usually, Oliver Perez, Moises Alou, Orlando Hernandez and Luis Castillo are brought up with nary a mention of Tim Redding, Scott Schoeneweis, Darren Oliver or Gary Sheffield.

If you think Omar Minaya only goes after "certain players" it's because you want to believe the poorly performing GM of your favorite baseball team favors one race over another. It's because you want to believe he has some sort of scheme to decrease the number of non-Latinos in baseball, or to increase money paid out to Latinos in this country. Criticizing his moves in the strict baseball context is not enough for you - it has to become personal, an assault on Omar's character. As always, you're free to have these beliefs, but you're flat-out wrong.

MLB Trade Rumors: Jason Bay to the Mets?

raygu — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:00:28 -0000

by Rob Carr - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Jason Bay, right, is congratulated by third base coach DeMarlo Hale (35) after hitting a solo home run against the Baltimore Orioles during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Sept. 18, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Rob Carr)

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SI.com's Jon Heyman reported, via Twitter, yesterday that the Mets are not going to get into the bidding for Matt Holliday, but did make a bid for slugger Jason Bay:

#mets didnt want to get into protracted talks with holliday. also believe bay, as pull hitter with loft, fits citi field OK about 5 hours ago from web
#mets offered #bay 4 years for about $65 million, give or take. they'd probably have to bump it to 5 yrs to get him.

It was also reported that the Mets made an offer to catcher Bengie Molina. The Mets apparently want to sign one of the three biggest free agents in this year's free agent class.

Should the Mets sign both Bay and Molina, they would have a pretty solid lineup:

Jason Bay

Bengie Molina

Jeff Franceour

Daniel Murphy

Bay has never hit at the new Citifield, but as a Pirate, he went 5-15-.303-.382-.576-.957 at the old Shea Stadium. Bay's career home/road splits are a picture of consistency as he has hit .282-.387-.507-.893 at home (PNC Park and Fenway Park) and .278-.366-.532-.898 on the road in his career.

Bay's 2009 season was very productive even though his BA was a low .267. He went 36-119-.267-.384-.537-.921. Bay's BB% (15%), K% (30.5%) and ISO% (.269) were all at or close to career highs for him. Bay benefitted from a 49.1% FB% and a 19.7% HR/FB% in 2009.

Shouild Bay sign with the Mets, I do not see him hitting 30 HRs in 2010, but can see a solid 25-100 season from him assuming the Mets don't experience the numbers of injuries that plagued the team in 2009.

I was trading emails with Fake Teams reader DB11 today, and we agreed that Bay's NL-only league (UBA) auction value could be in the $30-$35 range in 2010 should he sign with the Mets.

Poll

Can Jason Bay hit 30 HRs in 2010 playing his home games at Citifield?

My Dreams Come True: Mets Pursuing 2B Adam Kennedy

Sam Page — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:59:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

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From Rosenthal:

The Mets and Diamondbacks are the teams showing the most interest in free agent Adam Kennedy, major-league sources say, viewing him as a potential starter at second base.

The Mets, if they traded Luis Castillo, could sign Kennedy as a less expensive option than Orlando Hudson. The Diamondbacks, who traded Felipe Lopez to the Brewers last July, also are looking for help at second.

Kennedy is a big favorite of mine. He plays a great 2B (8.2 career UZR/150), and would be a huge boon to our defense and a good complement to a Joel Piniero signing. A career .317 wOBA hitter, Kennedy hit .337 (wOBA) last year. I bet the Mets (and the market) think Orlando Hudson is the better player, but that's arguably not true.

Off to Indy!

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 18:03:57 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

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Getting ready to drive over to Indianapolis in the next half-hour or so. Here are a couple links to get everyone through the day:

The Marlins are reportedly close to trading closer Matt Lindstrom, FOXSPORTS.com's is reporting. Approximately six teams are interested in the closer, who struggled to find his form in 2009. However, with a high-90s fastball, he could make for a very effective middle-to-late inning reliever.
Bill Ladson of MLB.com is reporting that the Mets are interested in Nationals outfielder Josh Willingham. Willingham can hit for power, showing that in D.C. by hitting .260 with 24 home runs.
The Mets also have interest in Rod Barajas, according to the New Jersey Star-Ledger.
The Rays and Cubs are no close to a deal for Milton Bradley, according to Jon Heyman. The Mets are trying to work Luis Castillo into the deal, which is also slowing things down.
The Reds are showing interest in free agent pitcher Noah Lowry, according to MLBlogs.com.
One AL source says the Yankees will consider Rich Harden at the Winter Meetings.

See you guys on the other side.

The Race To "In The Best Shape Of His Life"

James Kannengieser — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 20:00:17 -0000

One of the great clichés of spring training is the declaration that Player X is "in the best shape of his life." Usually a sportswriter conveys the message but it's not uncommon for the player to deliver it himself. We're far away from pitchers and catchers but this hot stove season is exasperating. A poll to determine who people think will be the first Met declared "in the best shape of his life" (or some variant) is more attractive to me right now then fretting over a rumor by some random dude who Tweeted that the Mets want to sign Johnny Damon. Here are some candidates, followed by the poll. Feel free to add other suggestions/justifications:

Oliver Perez - He has to be the favorite in this race. After about as disastrous a 2009 as possible, and reports that he let himself go during the World Baseball Classic, Ollie is spending the offseason in Arizona at the Athletes Performance Institute. For $12 million a year, he better be in the best shape of this life by March 2010 if he has any pride in what he does.

Francisco Rodriguez - I have no way of confirming this, but it appeared that Frankie put on a few pounds this past season, at least compared to his Angels days. More importantly, and verifiably, his peripherals slipped across the board. Strange, factoring his switch from the tougher AL to the NL. His velocity didn't slip though, and in fact slightly increased from 2008. A fit Frankie would be pumped up and ready to earn that vesting option from hell.

Daniel Murphy - Discussion of Murphy's work ethic became banal awhile ago. He would contend for this crown in any year, if only because people seem to love writing about his killer drive for success. He also has something to prove next season, especially if the Mets don't sign a free agent first baseman.

Jose Reyes - Jose might be this year's version of Luis Castillo. He suffered an injury and seemed to draw the ire of the fans, for various reasons. A report of Jose being in the best shape of his life might be disconcerting - it implies that he trained like an animal. I'd rather hear reports that he was cautious and didn't train too hard or too early. He has million dollar legs and they need to be taken care of. However, given his intensity and love for the game it wouldn't be surprising to see him first to earn the "best shape" moniker.

Jeff Francoeur - Just because.

Dark Horse: Nick Evans - Nasty Nick couldn't do anything to grab Jerry Manuel's attention in late 2009 so he needs to make a splash this spring. His plan should be to become so ripped that no one, not even Professor Jerry, will be able to ignore his flawlessly toned pectorals, biceps and quads. Piazza-esque batting practice displays in Port St. Lucie will follow. Free weights and 50 Gram Slams are on the path to glory for young Nick.

Poll

Who will be first to be declared "in the best shape of his life"?

Oliver Perez

338 votes

Francisco Rodriguez

25 votes

Daniel Murphy

24 votes

Jose Reyes

99 votes

Jeff Francoeur

39 votes

Nick Evans

13 votes

Other

13 votes

551 votes | Poll has closed

Burrell-For-Bradley Rumor Rears Its Head Again

Al — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:26:50 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

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This time, it comes via Joel Sherman at the New York Post, a source sometimes reputable, sometimes not (hat tip to MLBTR for the link). Sherman writes:

I hear that a trade of Tampa Bay’s Pat Burrell for the Cubs’ Milton Bradley is still a strong possibility. Burrell is due $9 million next year while Bradley has two years at $21 million left. Bradley also makes $9 million next year, so the sticking point is how much of the 2011 $12 million contract the Cubs are willing to absorb to complete a trade. My hunch is that the Cubs would have to eat at least half and make that a $6 million contract for the Rays in 2011.

Financially, this would be a reasonable outcome for the Cubs. The $9 million for this year is a sunk cost; I assume payroll planning included paying that amount to someone, whether it be Bradley, another player, or eating Bradley's deal. Splitting the contract for 2011 makes the "effective" cost to the Cubs $6 million. However, as we have discussed here, Burrell is pretty useless to the Cubs -- he'd be a disaster in right field, and would almost certainly have to be flipped back to another AL team where he could DH. The DH market is pretty saturated, though. Sherman continues:

If the Cubs go through with this trade they are looking at two poor left fielders who both swing righty – Burrell and Alfonso Soriano – on the roster. So this is totally my speculation, but I wonder if the Cubs would then do a trade built around Burrell for Luis Castillo. It is hard to find a baseball official who actually thinks the Mets are going to land either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday in free agency, yet the Mets still want to add power to left field. Burrell is a woeful fielder, but he has some power plus removing Castillo would allow the Mets to hunt some additional power at second base.

First, I'm glad a sportswriter actually puts the words "this is totally my speculation" in print -- sometimes you'll read an article saying something like this and assume it comes from a team source. This time, it's simply a NY sportswriter making something up. I haven't been in favor of Castillo in the past and I'd rather not see this deal. Castillo's speed has been declining -- his 20 SB last year were his fewest in a full season (not counting 2005, when he missed 40 games due to injury), and though he does get on base at a reasonable clip (.387 OBA in 2009), he has almost no power -- his .346 SLG was the sixth-lowest of anyone who qualified for the 2009 batting title. He did rank at 1.6 WAR in 2009 according to Fangraphs.

Burrell or Castillo? Neither is a real good option, but I'd like to see the Bradley deal done before the winter meetings, so Jim Hendry could actually address the real needs of this team next week in Indianapolis.

Discuss.

Free Agent Second Basemen Valuation

Eric Simon — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 15:46:04 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Ludicrous speed, Go! (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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Luis Castillo is under contract for two more years at $6 million per, yet we all seem to be forging ahead with our offseason plans as if his jettisoning is a foregone conclusion. Rumored deals for Lyle Overbay and Kevin Millwood have gone nowhere (if in fact they were ever really discussed), so if the Mets aren't actively shopping Castillo we can at least be sure that the rumormongers think they should be.

Last season Castillo was serviceable at the plate and woeful in the field, and since his spot is the only infield position the Mets could realistically upgrade defensively it makes some sense that the Mets will look to do just that. If they recognize how important infield defense is to a groundball pitcher like Mike Pelfrey (and free agent groundballer Joel Pineiro, if they elect to show interest in him) they'll be even more compelled to replace Castillo.

Here are the prominent free agent second basemen. I've included Castillo for the purpose of comparison. Again, the '5-3-1 WAR' is a weighted average of the last three seasons: (5 * 2009 WAR) + (3 * 2008 WAR) + (1 * 2007 WAR). 'WAR $' is just $4.5 million per '5-3-1 WAR', and should be used as a rough guide to what the player is worth, not necessarily what he should cost (as some teams can pay more per win than others).

Player	2010 Age	WAR 2009	WAR 2008	WAR 2007	5-3-1 WAR	WAR $
Placido Polanco (A)	34	3.1	3.1	5.3	3.3	15.1
Felipe Lopez (A)	30	4.6	0.8	0.4	2.9	12.9
Orlando Hudson (A)	32	2.9	2	3.3	2.6	11.9
Ron Belliard	35	1.3	1.7	2.4	1.6	7.0
Luis Castillo	34	1.6	0.6	2.4	1.4	6.1
Jamey Carroll	36	1.5	1.4	0.1	1.3	5.9

Placido Polanco is certainly appealing, but he'll be 34 next year and is a Type-A free agent. Felipe Lopez was terrific last season but awful the prior two seasons. He was good offensively for just the second time in his career and adept in the field for the first time ever. A contract-year aberration? Could be. Orlando Hudson appears destined to be a Met at some point, and he's still a good enough player that a two-year deal at Castillo money would make sense for the Mets (depending on what it costs them to slough off Castillo in the first place). Like Polanco, Lopez and Hudson have been given Type-A status, which further drives up their cost of acquisition (assuming they are offered arbitration).

MLB Trade Rumors: Brandon Phillips to the Mets?

raygu — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 14:00:32 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

2 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Joey Votto (19) welcomes teammate Brandon Phillips (4) at home plate in the third inning against the Houston Astros in a baseball game Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009, in Houston. Phillips scored from second base on a bases-loaded Juan Francisco two-run double. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

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It appears the recession has really hit MLB more than they have let on over the past year, as one team after another is trying to dump salary to reduce payroll going into the 2010 season. The Reds are the latest team to announce that they will listen to offers for Brandon Phillips, Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero and Aaron Harang.

The most interesting name of the four listed is Brandon Phillips as there are several large market teams looking for a second baseman, namely the Dodgers and Mets. The Diamondbacks may also be looking to fill 2B, but only after making decisions in their bullpen.

Phillips makes alot of sense for both the Dodgers and Mets, as long as the Mets can rid themselves of Luis Castillo's remaining two year $12 million contract. Phillips had another good season going 20-98-25-.276. The Dodgers, according to ESPN's Buster Olney, are aggressively looking for a second baseman. Here is his Tweeter quote:

The Dodgers aggressively seeking a second baseman... We've heard about Uggla out there; Would Brandon Phillips make sense? We'll see.

There was also a rumor out yesterday where the Mets were shopping Luis Castillo and the Dodgers appeared to have interest in him as well. I assume one Juan Pierre could be involved in that deal in a salary for salary deal.

Poll

Where will Brandon Phlllips be playing in 2010?

Mets

262 votes

Dodgers

123 votes

Reds

136 votes

521 votes | Poll has closed

Is Orlando Hudson The Answer At Secondbase?

Sam Page — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Orlando Hudson fires a throw across his body after fielding a slow roller off the bat of San Diego Padres' Everth Cabrera in the third inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in San Diego. Hudson got the out at first. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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Some things never change: the Mets are supposedly eager to move Luis Castillo to make room for free-agent Orlando Hudson. I agree with the urge to trade Castillo, but is Orlando Hudson much of an improvement? More importantly, is that improvement worth its cost? Last season, the Dodgers signed Hudson to a 1-year deal with a $3.4 million base salary, although he made nearly $8 million through incentives. According to Fangraphs, Hudson was worth $13MM (2.9 WAR) in 2009. If the Mets want to get Hudson, they'll almost assuredly not get that kind of bargain. I honestly have no idea what he might command, but ironically the Castillo contract will probably be a good starting point for Hudson's agent.

Offensively, Hudson projects better than Castillo. His .342 wOBA last season was right in-line with his career totals to that point. Like Castillo, he hits an absurd amount of groundballs, but isn't dependent on infield hits to generate offensive value, because of a decent amount of power. For that reason, his offensive game is much less likely to deteriorate in the coming seasons. Still, it's important not to overstate the difference in their hitting contributions in 2009--0.3 WAR, or 3.3 runs.

Hudson's biggest perceived advantage over Castillo is fielding ability, which is true, just not in the way most people think. According to UZR, Hudson was -3.3 runs below average, while Castillo was -10.4 runs below average in significantly less playing time. So, Hudson would be a big upgrade, but only in the sense that no one could possibly worse than Castillo out there. I think the divide in perception vs. reality of Hudson's defense comes not just from him being sure-handed and not rangy, but from being rangy to one side. O-Dog has always been much more proficient at going to his glove-hand side (toward firstbase) than to his left for groundballs. So he will make great diving catches, just in one direction. If the Mets plan to go with Murphy at first in 2010, some of Hudson's defensive value might be negated by the far-right side of the infield already being covered by Murphy. Actually, John Dewan's plus/minus system (which is calculated much in the same way as the popular UZR) breaks each infielder's performance by how they hand balls to their left, dead on, and right. To illustrate my point I applied this data to the STATS fielding chart (plus/minus uses BIS), comparing a Hudson/Murphy infield to a Castillo/Murphy infield. There are a lot of disclaimers attached to this graph, foremost that I just eyeballed this using MS Paint, and also all the standard uncertainty associated with using just one season of data. Anyway:

What these charts attempt to illustrate is how overlap with Murphy may mean that Hudson shores up the firstbase-side of the infield but leaves an even bigger hole near second. This probably all means nothing, but James Loney, a decent firstbaseman in his own right, rated worse at getting to balls at his right in 2008 v. 2009.

Plus/Minus, though, actually rated Hudson as +8 (~6 UZR), compared to Castillo, -11 (~-8) in 2009. The system had Hudson as -1 on groundballs and +9 on flyballs (which might suit Johan's IFFB tendencies). Ultimately, I think Hudson would be a big defensive upgrade, but maybe not the savior Mike Pelfrey's been looking for, or any better than average.

Another big concern with Hudson is durability. He has only played 150 games once in his career, although had he not been benched for Ronnie Belliard last year it would be twice. His injury problems aren't chronic like Castillo's, so they are less worrisome going forward, but the Mets better have a good backup plan if they intend to sign Hudson. I would not be reassured by Hudson+Cora.

Ultimately, I have no easy answer regarding Hudson. If signing Hudson is the condition under which Castillo gets removed from the lineup, so be it, I'd much rather have him than Castillo. I worry, however, that the Mets will overrate his durability and fielding and lock themselves into another bad contract. They'd be better served looking into the trade market or signing a real defensive stud, like Placido Polanco or Adam Kennedy, to a one-year deal.