SB Nation - Alexi Casilla

Five Hours and Counting

Jesse — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:06:18 -0000

Free agency looms. Will any of the Twins five free agents return?

It's been confirmed that the Twins have had opening talks with Carl Pavano's agent, but other than Ron Gardenhire saying he'd be interested in bringing back Orlando Cabrera as his second basemen there's been no news on the rest of Minnesota's remaining free agents.

Mike Redmond

#55 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 5-11

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 05, 1971

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mike Redmond	45	135	9	32	5	1	0	7	11	19	0	0	.237	.299	.289

Redmond's had a distunguished career, and he's earned himself a reputation as a "gamer". He plays hard, he's a leader and he's a mentor. With Joe Mauer as the game's best catcher and Jose Morales getting his feet wet with some decent results, Redmond's time in Minnesota as a player is likely done. He'll be 39 next May, and NBP has done the expected and said he'd like to remain with the Twins.

During his five seasons in Minnesota Redmond hit .297/.339/.359 in 931 plate appearances, with 44 walks and 85 strikeouts. I'll remember him for the "Smell 'Em" bit, for hitting .341 in '06 and for being pretty much the best backup a team could ask for.

Odds for a return in 2010: Improbable

Ron Mahay

#37 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 28, 1971

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ron Mahay	1-0	16	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	7	3	2	1	3	8	2.00	1.11

The 38-year old southpaw pitched about as well as you could ask him to down the stretch for the Twins, and he helped to solidify the LOOGY role when Jose Mijares lost his mind and threw at Adam Everett. Over the course of his career he's been a pretty decent relief pitcher, succeeding as a middle relief guy especially when used as that lefty-one-out-guy. Mahay's struggled with his command for most of his career, and he's averaged 4.4 BB/9 across his last three years.

With fewer positions available than there are arms already it doesn't make sense to bring in a LOOGY when it's going to take seven digits to get him to commit, especially when Mijaries can do the job for a fraction of the cost. Thanks for the contributions sir, but I think it might be time to shake hands.

Odds for a return in 2010: Improbable

Joe Crede

#24 / Third Base / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 26, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

He was excatly as advertised in 2009: great with the glove, some pop in his bat, can't get on base and can't stay on the field. At points over the last few weeks I've advocated the possibility of bringing Joe back on a similar contract to the one he signed last February, but the more I tihnk about it the worse of an idea it becomes. If you're going to shell out for a free agent, make sure it's a guy who has a good chance of playing. Don't pay millions for a guy who will require a contingency plan because he's almost a guarantee to miss stretches of time. Nick Nelson spells it out much better than I have.

Crede isn't opposed to returning, and I have to agree with Nick: if the Twins wait this out and try to make something happen at third base but can't by February, then sure, give Crede another shot. In reality, he might get another shot. But I won't be upset if he signs elsewhere, and I'm hoping that I can remember him as the guy who hit the grand slam to put us over the White Sox early in the year.

Odds for a return in 2010: Possible

Orlando Cabrera

#18 / Short Stop / Minnesota Twins

Height: 5-9

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Nov 02, 1974

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera	59	242	42	70	13	3	5	36	11	32	2	0	.289	.313	.430

O-Cab was a high-energy guy who brought a buzz to the team when they needed it. Like Crede he came up with some massive and memorable hits, but also like Crede his overall production doesn't warrant a whole lot of consideration for a return. He's already showing decline, and at 35 he's not going to get better.

Cabrera was great to have around and I'll remember him not just for his homer in game 163, but for his relationship with Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, and for giving the club a shot of adrenaline. Unfortunately second base isn't going to make his millions any more palatable, particularly when there are so many second base upgrades on the free agent market.

Odds for a return in 2010: Possible

Carl Pavano

#48 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carl Pavano	5-4	12	12	0	0	0	0	73.2	85	39	38	7	16	59	4.64	1.37

This season was a bit of a revival for Pavano, and he proved himself to be a big game pitcher for the Twins down the stretch. When he's healthy he's can strike a few guys out and has good command, and while he'll be 34 in January he's still young enough to have another good season or two to give.

Pavano has stated he'd like to return to the Twins, and naturally the prospect of playing for a competetive team like Minnesota will have some draw. Minnesota's interest is likely mutual, but Pavano's future here (unlike the rest of the guys on this list) will depend greatly on what kind of interest he draws from other clubs and how much they'll be willing to pay him next year.

I expect Pavano to get an offer from the Twins within the next couple of weeks.

Odds for a return in 2010: Realistic

Poll

Which free agent are the Twins most likely to bring back?

Mike Redmond

21 votes

Ron Mahay

4 votes

Joe Crede

65 votes

Orlando Cabrera

41 votes

Carl Pavano

572 votes

None of the above, actually

71 votes

774 votes | Poll has closed

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:33:43 -0000

by Ed Andrieski - AP

Everyone's talking about John Lackey today. Should they be?

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Some things to read while launching a third party.

Thanks to Mark for filling in yesterday while I laid on the couch and drifted in and out of consciousness. My apologies for the late Mug today - I had hoped to be off my pain meds by now, but no such luck, so I'm having a hard time writing coherently. Also, as I was gathering news this morning, a delivery truck showed up with a whole room full of furniture from IKEA.

Before we go any further, you may want to just give up and find a new team or a new sport. Dave Begel of OnMilwaukee.com wants to make sure you know the Brewers are never going to compete (h/t BBTF). So abandon all hope, ye who remain here.

Meanwhile, for those of us who haven't jumped off a bridge, it's the time of year where we spend lots of time discussing players who may or may not even consider becoming a Brewer. Take John Lackey, for example.

Jorge Says No! wonders if the Brewers should be interested in signing him.
In-Between Hops has a visual representation of reasons they shouldn't.
When Buster Olney said the Brewers may have interest in Lackey, he also mentioned the Mariners as a candidate, prompting Lookout Landing to rip apart the logic involved in that statement.
Ken Rosenthal says the Angels are still interested in Lackey, too.
If/When Doug Melvin gets outbid for Lackey, Fire Doug Melvin has a statement for him to read. Melvin is already using similar language to complain about the draft.

There's also a flurry of discussion on catchers:

Just a few days after this vomit-inducer on Jason Kendall's likely return, new reports would suggest Kendall's return may not be so likely after all, and Jonathan Lucroy may be the leading candidate to take Kendall's place next season.
View From Bernie's Chalet is in favor of that move.
Project Prospect gave Lucroy a pretty nice review from the Arizona Fall League.
Big League Stew wonders why no one is searching for Jason Kendall's real age.

I'm planning on writing something more in-depth on Lucroy once my brain gets a little less fuzzy. In the meantime, here's a bunch of notes on Mike Cameron, too:

Dave Cameron of FanGraphs wonders if Cameron might be the second-best position player on the free agent market this offseason.
Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times thinks he'll end up with the Yankees.
Hot Foot hopes he doesn't end up back with the Mets.

A fair number of people are treating it as a foregone conclusion that Craig Counsell will either return to the Brewers next season or retire, but that may not be the case. Adam McCalvy thinks Counsell's surprising 2009 season should net him several offers, and may drive up the price for Whitefish Boy.

MLB Daily Dish has predictions for free agents #11-20 in their rankings, and thinks Rich Harden (ranked #12) may end up with the Brewers. They also have Felipe Lopez (ranked #14) signing with the Cubs.

Speaking of oft-injured pitchers who could get a phone call from Doug Melvin, FanHuddle thinks the Brewers could sign Brad Penny.

And, of course, as the Brewers look to spend their free agent dollars this offseason, one massive mistake overshadows all other deals: Jorge Says No! has a look at the logic and failure of the Jeff Suppan deal.

Finally, there's some continued reaction to the J.J. Hardy-Carlos Gomez deal:

Aaron Gleeman has a scouting report on Gomez from his former manager, Ron Gardenhire.
Real GM Baseball gave the Twins an A- for the deal, and the Brewers a C+.

On Monday, I mentioned having written a scouting report on Hardy for Nick Nelson of Nick's Twins Blog. In return, I asked for his scouting report on Gomez. Here it is:

"When it became clear that the Twins were working to move Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason, fans geared up for a marquis package in return. After all, Santana was arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball; a two-time Cy Young Award winner with devastating stuff and command from the left side who still hadn't yet turned 29. What the Twins got was a package from the Mets that included three promising pitchers but was headlined by Carlos Gomez, a raw 22-year-old center fielder who general manager Bill Smith envisioned as a future anchor in the lineup.

Because of the circumstances surrounding his acquisition, Gomez became saddled with massive expectations amongst the Minnesota fan base. This might have been his undoing. By the time the Twins sent him to the Brewers for J.J. Hardy last week, a sizable portion of local fans was more than ready to see Gomez go. His lack of progress at the plate and his repeated mental lapses on the field -- one of which was on display during the ALDS when he cost the Twins a crucial run by overrunning second base in New York -- became too much for a lot of folks to tolerate.

As a person who greatly values defense and appreciates players who display enthusiasm and emotion on the field, I was always a big fan of Gomez and I'm sorry to see him go. There's no doubt that he was failing to make meaningful strides on the cognitive end, but his physical tools are undeniable and he was at least making slight adjustments at the plate this past season, with a decreased strikeout rate and increased walk rate. Granted, he was still poor in both those areas and his overall hitting numbers dropped regardless, but it's something to keep in mind, especially considering that he's still only 24 years old.

As far as defense goes, get ready for a treat. I know Mike Cameron did some nice things for the Brewers, but Gomez is better. I watched the great Torii Hunter in center field regularly for about a decade, and can confidently say that Gomez gets to balls that Hunter in his prime never would have dreamed of reaching. Even though he occasionally makes bad reads, Gomez can very quickly make up for a missed first step and has closing speed on line drives and fly balls like I've never seen before. He's an exquisite defensive center fielder and will make any fly ball heavy pitchers on the Brewers staff very happy.

That tremendous defensive proficiency means that Gomez doesn't have to progress all that much offensively in order to transform into a highly valuable player. While he has failed to post even a .300 OBP during his three major-league seasons thus far, Gomez posted a .339 OBP in the minors despite being young for every level and he may benefit from a return to the National League. His dreadful lack of discipline at the plate may prevent him from ever taking the next step and becoming an adequate offensive contributor, but I could certainly see him turning a corner and becoming a Franklin Gutierrez type player. Even if he doesn't, his defense makes him a worthwhile starter in center field and at worst he'll settle in as a quality fourth outfielder and pinch-running option.

For all the negatives that have surrounded Gomez's tenure in Minnesota, my lasting memory of him will not be the baserunning muff against the Yankees or one of the hundreds of outside breaking balls whiffed on for strike three. It will be the 12th inning of this season's Game 163 against the Tigers, when Alexi Casilla sneaked a grounder between second and first to drive in Gomez with the winning run. Gomez came sprinting home, arms outstretched like the wings of an airplane, and dove across home plate despite the fact that the play was nowhere near close. After recording the game-winning, playoff-clinching run, Gomez lept into the air with the excitement of a kid in little league. He may not be the brightest guy in the world, but Gomez plays the game with a lot of heart and he absolutely has his strengths.

Appreciate Gomez for what he is, and you'll love having him on your team. Just try to be patient with the mental mistakes and often clueless offensive approach."

Meanwhile, NL Gold Glove winners are expected to be announced today, and Stan Musial's Stance is projecting J.J. Hardy as the winner at shortstop. It seems unlikely, but I suppose it's possible.

Over 1000 innings and nearly 1000 appearances into his career, we're still trying to figure out how exactly Trevor Hoffman has managed to be so successful. Dave Allen of FanGraphs has a look at one of Hoffman's strengths: pinpoint control that allows him to keep the ball out of power zones to left-handed hitters.

Hitting during day games at Miller Park might get a little easier next season: The team has removed the ivy in the center field batters' eye and replaced it with glare-reducing black paint. They're also adding some black mesh around the scoreboard.

In the minors:

Jonathan Lucroy, Zach Braddock and (to a lesser extent) Lorenzo Cain are having pretty nice seasons in the AFL, and the Peoria Javelinas are 16-8, the best record in the AFL. They lead their division by five games with eight to play. For more on their recent performances, check out today's Fall/Winter League Update.
FanGraphs has the Brewers' minor league season in review, with notes on one Brewer minor league graduate and four more prospects.
Project Prospect ranked Caleb Gindl as the 12th best corner outfield prospect in all of baseball.
Plunk Everyone noted that Adam Heether and Brendan Katin are still among the Venezuelan Winter League leaders in HBP. Heether hasn't appeared in a game since November 1, and I'm still not sure why.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Claimed utilityman Mike McCoy off waivers from the Rockies.
Orioles: Claimed pitcher Armando Gabino off waivers from the Twins.
Rays: Exercised Carl Crawford's option for 2010, declined options on catcher Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse, and claimed pitcher Ramon Ramirez off waivers from the Reds.
Red Sox:Shortstop Nick Green and outfielder Joey Gathright both rejected outright assignments and will become free agents.
Reds: Outfielder Darnell McDonald rejected an outright assignment to the minors and will become a free agent.

If you're looking to sign Yorvit Torrealba to a deal this offseason (perhaps as a replacement for Jason Kendall), the baseline has been set: After the Rockies declined his $4 million option for next season, they reportedly offered him $4.5 million for two seasons, and he turned it down. I think the Brewers could easily beat that, and might welcome a 2 year$6-7 million deal for him. Brian McTaggart has a look at other available catchers.

Meanwhile, the Reds are reportedly looking to cut payroll into the $65-70 million range, which could be a challenge considering they owe $66 million to ten players for 2010. So, if you have a Red you're looking to acquire, you should get on the phone.

Looking for another buy-low pitching candidate? The Royals are reportedly monitoring the rehab of Runelvys Hernandez, who has pitched just four major league games since 2006.

We use WAR a lot to discuss the value of players, but are there cases where we're misusing it? Jeremy Greenhouse of The Hardball Times looks at misuses of the stat. We've definitely been guilty of some in the comments here.

I shuddered while reading this note: Garrett Broshuis, a teammate of Giants prospect and accused murderer Angel Villalona, has a look at the circumstances surrounding Villalona's release from prison, which included a roughly $50,000 payment to the victim's family and their decision to ask for charges to be dropped.

On a happier note, Brewerfan.net has an interview with former Brewer Junior Spivey, who remains a Brewer fan long after moving on from the organization.

A couple of cool notes from the SBN Network:

SB Nation celebrated its sixth birthday this week.
Sky Kalkman, formerly of Beyond the Box Score, represented SBN well by winning Dugout Central's prediction contest.

I don't have any Brewer related birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a happy birthday to UW-Stevens Point alum Scott May, who appeared in five major league games and turns 48 today.

Oh, and I have a new career goal: Leveraging BCB's Twitter (@BrewCrewBall) to get a CBS TV deal.

Drink up.

When Is It Easier to Replace the Whole Than Replace the Parts?

Jesse — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 02:37:54 -0000

More photos » by J Pat Carter - AP

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And, when can it be done by a financially conscious club?

Answer: When there are no entrenched players with big contracts. Which is exactly the position the Twins find themselves in this year,

Almost two years ago to the day I talked about how this club would go about replacing Torii Hunter. It wasn't realistic to think that the organization would be able to replace everything Torii brought to the table with one guy, but it was possible that the Twins would be able to replace at least parts of his production through different players. This time around it's a little bit different, because A) there's more than one position open, B) the positions are open in spite of guys you could dub "incumbants" and C) we're not asking anyone to replace an All-Star.

If anyone is still wondering what position(s) I'm talking about, it's second base, third base and shortstop. Naturally.

With Joe Crede and Orlando Cabrera possibly not returning to the Twins as free agents, both Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher are legitimate non-tender candidates this year. Brendan's versatility is only a plus when it doesn't cost a lot of money, which he's going to get now that he's about to enter arbitration for the first time; Brian's penchant for handling right-handed pitching gives him value in a platoon situation, but his defense and lack of power make him a one-trick pony if you give him extra credit for being able to backup first base. Being able to play multiple positions and having backup options has been part of Minnesota's MO over the last few years, but with Harris and Buscher in particular the Twins have some decisions to make as they weight their cost versus benefits ratios this winter.

This leaves Alexi Casilla (plausible trade fodder), Matt Tolbert (the new, younger and cheaper Harris) and Nick Punto (hello, contract!) as the only infielders who I would rate as likely candidates to remain entering 2010.

Let's get onto the fun part--what a player coming in would have to replace.

On-Base Skills
Casilla (.280), Crede (.289) Tolbert (.303), Harris (.310), Cabrera (.313), Punto (.337), Buscher (.360)

This should be one of the more essential attributes that any incoming infielder should possess. The two-hole, and the bottom of the batting order in general, had trouble producing base runners on any sort of a consistent basis. As a result the lineup, which was constructed around a handful of very competent and talented players, didn't score nearly as many runs as it could have.

Being able to hit, whether that's for power or average or both, is a secondary value as far as I'm concerned. Any player who can come in and simly prolong the inning by avoiding outs is an upgrade, and it's a necessity to find someone who can hit between Denard Span and Joe Mauer.

Plate Discipline

Getting on-base is priority number one, I don't care how anyone does it. But in the (most likely) event that the Twins don't get their hands on a premier middle infielder who is a natural hitter, they need to find a guy who can step in and just work it out. A guy who can be smart, identify the strike zone, identify pitches and be selective in his approach will find his way on.

Player	BB%	O-Swing%	Swing%	P/PA
Casilla	8.8	29.5	44.4	3.77
Crede	8.0	31.5	53.1	3.70
Tolbert	9.6	24.8	47.5	3.73
Harris	6.5	25.3	45.3	3.84
Cabrera	5.2	27.7	47.5	3.68
Punto	14.5	17.0	38.6	4.22
Buscher	15.0	19.8	41.3	4.26

BB% = Percentage of plate appearances that end in a walk (9.1% average)
O-Swing% = Percentage of pitches outside of the strike zone which were swung at (25.1% average)
Swing% = Overall percentage of pitches swung at (45.2% average)
P/PA = Pitches per plate appearance (3.87 team avearge)

The only two players consistently coming out on the better side of average are Punto and Buscher. We'll get more into Punto and his positives when we get around to our Season In Review series, but it's hard to look at what Brian did this year in very limited action (just 164 plate appearances) in one breath while saying he's a legitimate non-tender candidate in another. That's the difference between the microcosm and The Big Picture.

After our first two categories you should already have a pretty clear picture of how things look with our "incumbents", and how difficult it would be (or not be) to improve upon their 2009 performances. Punto's peripherals don't look horrible, while Buscher (as encouraging as his numbers are) were accumulated in very limited time. And it was limited time for a reason.

Power

Slg Iso HR/FB XBH%

Player	SLG	ISO	HR/FB%	XBH%
Casilla	.259	.057	0.0	3.9
Crede	.414	.189	10.1	8.7
Tolbert	.308	.076	3.7	4.3
Harris	.362	.101	5.2	6.4
Cabrera	.389	.105	4.2	8.1
Punto	.284	.056	1.1	3.9
Buscher	.316	.081	4.9	3.7

Power is an issue. We know this. We also know that as far as shortstop and second base are concerned, it's just a bonus. A big, fat bonus.

Defense

Not a bonus. Punto rated a plus at second base (5.2 UZR/150, while Crede (15.9) and Tolbert (8.0) each came out ahead at third base. Anyone and everyone else who played any sort of time at any of those three positions were, at best, below average. "Butcher" might be a more accurate term in some cases.

Speed

Cabrera is agile, Punto is quick, but only Casilla is someone I would dub as truly fast. He was 11 for 11 in stolen bases this season, confirming not just his raw speed but also his ability to read pitchers and get the jumps he needs. FanGraphs rates his speed component as 6.9 (compared to 5.0 average). That speed still hasn't translated to consistent success in the field however, resulting in flashes of prowess in his range mitigated with any number of mistakes.

Punto was 16-for-19 this season in stolen bases, but this is more a case of a guy who knows how to use his quickness than an example of a player whose raw speed gets him his numbers.

You can teach reaction, hone instincts and train for an explosive first step, but speed itself can't be taught. Finding a player who knows how to maximize his speed is more important than trying to bring in the fastest guy you can find, but as far as this tool is concerned it's one area where the Twins don't actually require improvement.

What good solutions are out there?

Dan Uggla is still toward the top of my list. He was second among all second basemen in walk rates in 2009, walking in 14 percent of his plate appearances. His OBP was solid (.354) and he complimented it with good power (.216 ISO, 31 home runs). He also knows his strike zone (18.7 O-Swing%, also second best in baseball among second basemen). Uggla's biggest detractor is his defense, which would roughly equate to Tolbert's season at second base: not pathetic, but definitely not good. He's right-handed and arbitration eligible.

On the free agent market is one Jamey Carroll, who is about as versatile as it gets while still being an effective hitter; in 2009 he played second, third and both corner outfield positions. For his career he's been extraordinarily selective as a hitter, swinging at just 16.5% of balls outside of the strike zone and just 33.6% of all pitches this past season. Career walk rates? Right around ten percent. On-base percentage? Just over .350 for his career, although hitting between Span and Mauer I could see him doing even better. The downside is that he'll be 36 next season and has only been a full-time player once in his career, usually appearing in roughly 100 games.

Felipe Lopez is also on the market, but projects as a Type-B free agent (not a big deal) and is also a Scott Boraas client (a bigger deal, literally). He's a switch-hitter, 30 in 2010, a good bet to post a .340+ OBP, and is a versatile defender although second and third might be his better positions. Lopez is also good for 25-35 doubles as a full-time player. As an option I really haven't considered much in recent weeks, he's definitely somebody to keep tabs on.

Finally there's fan-favorite J.J. Hardy, who is coming off of his worst professional season and a demotion to triple-A in Milwaukee. He's a gamble, but one that could pay off and likely shouldn't cost as much as Uggla, and he's also consistently been a good defensive shortstp.

Who else gets your vote as a favorite this off-season? How do they stack up as far as the essential peripherals?

As for the question which serves as the title for this post, the answer is as easy as the one I mentioned earlier, but it's probably also a bit more cruel. It's easier to replace the whole when the parts you have just aren't that good. There are bright spots, which includes Buscher's affinity for right-handed pitchers, Casilla's speed and some of Punto's peripherals, but none of them are complete packages and more importantly, none of them are good, star players who are capable of helping give the Twins an additional boost in 2010. They are who they are, with perhaps the exception of Casilla, and if the organization wants to give the club a little extra juice next summer they'll be hard pressed to expect anymore out of those three players than they got in 2009.

Twins Second Base In 2010: The Devil You Know?

Jesse — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 23:35:12 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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Stop me if you've heard this off-season story before...the Twins have an opening at second base.

When the Twins traded Luis Castillo at the 2007 trade deadline, it was seen as a curious but defendable action. Since then second base has been a carousel of mediocrity, with Minnesota starting Nick Punto, Alexi Casilla and Luis Rodriguez the rest of the way in just '07. '08 began with Brendan Harris and Matt Tolbert before Casilla and Punto and even Matt Macri saw starts. This past season saw the usual suspects cover the position once again, and while no new names were pulled from the hat it still means there were six guys getting starts over the last two-and-a-half seasons at second base.

It's difficult to be too hard on the front office for not bringing in an everyday second baseman last year. Punto had proven himself to be a versatile and valuable glove man over the years, even if 2009 wasn't as strong. Casilla has been, for the last two years, the guy that the organization has wanted to step into the role long-term. And as far as versatile swingmen are concerned, you could do worse than Harris. Additionally, as a position that typically doesn't provide a lot of offense, it kind of made sense that the vacancy at second base sort of fell to a secondary concern last winter.

Moving into 2010 it's impossible to not see second base as a primary concern. While the Devil You Know, or Devils, will still be around, their cumulative performance was one of the worse in baseball this season. Twins second basemen hit a combined .209/.302/.267 in 2009, with their .569 OPS by far the worse in the game. San Francisco's combined .611 OPS was good for a distant 29th.

Defensively the prospects weren't much brighter. As a group Twins second basemen accumulated a -7.0 UZR/150, 28th in the league. A -10.4 RngR was only slightly better at 27th.

The tricky bit, the part that sneaks into my brain and every other optimist's brain out there, is the bit that says Well, there's still some upside here. Casilla's still young, Punto finished strong at the plate and actually played strong defense down the stretch to end the year as the only Minnesota second baseman to finish the season with a UZR/150 not in the negative. Aye, that's the rub. THE RUB!

For the third consecutive season, the Minnesota Twins enter the off-season without an incumbant at any of the three infield positions to the left of first base. Each of the last two years I've said the exact same thing: as long as they fill two of those three spots with a quality player, I'll be happy. But even saying that I knew that second base wasn't the biggest concern. For the first time in these three years, I believe that it's just as important for the Twins to improve at second base as it is for them to solve their issues at third and short.

But with so many internal options available the organization will need to be creative if they aren't going to go the route that most of us expect them to take. If they want to think outside the box and go for a guy like Dan Uggla or Kelly Johnson, the trend of internal promotion that's plugged the gap in the middle infield over the last couple years will need to be bucked and some of those familiar faces, the Punto's and Casilla's and Harris's's's and Tolbert's, would likely find themselves donning new uniforms in 2010.

I'm hoping that the organization takes a few calculated gambles this off-season. I would like nothing more than to see this team make a move for a guy they believe can start 130 games at second base next year; not just start but own the position. He doesn't have to be an All-Star or a Gold Glove winner, but some value on at least one side of the ball would constitute an upgrade. That's what I want.

Poll

Where will the starting second baseman come from in 2010?

The Devil You Know (Internal)

284 votes

The Devil You've Probably Heard Of (External)

218 votes

502 votes | Poll has closed

Are These the Guys We Wanted?

Jesse — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:01:00 -0000

Every year we have a little wish-list of guys we hope the organization targets. Here are a select few who garnered interest from Twinkie Town or from the Twins organization. In no particular order...

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Juan Cruz	3-4	46	0	0	0	2	4	50.1	46	34	32	6	29	38	5.72	1.49

He's always been a bit of a loose cannon, but at least he was striking out people with such regularity and consistency that he could get himself out of as much trouble as he got himself into. This year the strikeout rate was nearly cut in half, his LOB& dropped from 83.6% in 2007 to a miserable 62.1% this season. He was around the strike zone more often, hitters stopped swinging at anything he threw outside of the strike zone and contact was way up. It was a bad season for Cruz, and suffice it to say I'm glad the Twins didn't gamble here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

I think we pretty much got what we expected out of Joe. He was a good defender when he was on the field (15.9 UZR/150), and was a power bat you had to show some respect if you were a pitcher who survived the first half of the Minnesota batting order. Too bad he wasn't around for the post-season, we could have used him.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Hudson	149	551	74	156	35	6	9	62	62	99	8	1	.283	.357	.417

Hot start, and that led to a pretty decent season for the 32-year old second baseman. The Dodgers phased him out toward the end of the season. His defense was better than last year, but was still just south of average if we go by his -2.9 UZR/150. His $3.38 million base salary wasn't bad, but if he signed for that to play with the Dodgers then I'm sure the Twins would have had to pony up a bit more. His incentives made it possible for the year to be worth a full $10 million, all based around plate appearances: $150K for reaching both the 150 and 175 plate appearance mark; $200 K for every 25 plate appearances from 200 - 300; $250 K for every 25 from 325 - 575; $10,000 for EVERY SINGLE plate appearance from 576 - 632. How many PA's did he have this year? 631.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Russ Springer	0-1	48	0	0	0	0	1	41.2	52	20	19	5	14	47	4.10	1.58

Great walk and strikeout rates, but he was an extreme fly-ball pitcher again this year and allowed a bunch of homers as a result--19 is enough for a guy who pitches 200 innings, much less 41.2. His breaking balls and off-speed pitches were almost non-existant, making almost exclusively a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and cutter. Lots of good peripherals for Springer though, and so even though he'll be 41 in November he should still get some interest in the coming months.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jarrod Washburn Mariners Tigers	8-6 1-3	20 8	20 8	1 0	1 0	0 0	0 0	133.0 43.0	109 51	42 35	39 35	11 12	33 16	79 21	2.64 7.33	1.07 1.56

W-L

SHO

ERA

WHIP

2009 - Jarrod Washburn

Mariners

Tigers

8-6

1-3

133.0

43.0

109

2.64

7.33

1.07

1.56

There were a lot, and I mean a LOT of rumors tying Washburn to the Twins last winter. As good as he was with the Mariners this season, seeing how horrendous he was in his short stint with the Tigers just confirms exactly how much Minnesota didn't need him around. He may have lucked the Twins into an extra win or two early in the season, but he would have given them right back at the end of the year when it counted: barely five inning a start, almost as many runs as he'd had in three times the innings, a disgusting number of homers...no, thank you.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ty Wigginton	122	410	44	112	19	0	11	41	23	57	1	2	.273	.314	.400

The walks dipped slightly after a career year in 2008, but it was the power that literally just disappeared. He couldn't hit fastballs, which is never good, but he wasn't really having success no matter which pitch type he'd swing at. Wigginton's overall contact percentage was constant, and he was even swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, but he was making more contact on the ones he did swing at. Which, probably, meant easier outs. It looks like Wigginton's pitch selection just disappeared this year, along with his power, and along with a little bit of bad luck (or maybe just not as much luck as he had last year) his numbers took a major dip. He's a guy I really wanted the Twins to go after.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Nomar Garciaparra	65	160	17	45	8	0	3	16	8	28	2	0	.281	.314	.388

This could be the end for Nomar. I did entertain the idea of picking him up for a bench option, as a guy who could start as a DH versus southpaws while playing a couple innings at third here and there. Another one of my crackpot ideas, clearly.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Casey Blake	139	485	84	136	25	6	18	79	63	116	3	4	.280	.363	.468

Knowing what we know now, seeing how decent of a year Blake had, would you sign him to the deal the Dodgers did? I said no when it happened, and in spite of his good year I wouldn't change my answer. Three years plus an option in 2012, that at a minimum will pay out $17.5 million dollars including '12's buyout...and in reality it's still probably safe to say that Minnesota would have had to beat that offer somehow land Blake in a Twins uniform.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Mike Lincoln	1-1	19	0	0	0	0	0	23.0	29	21	21	7	19	9	8.22	2.09

His name came up just before the Winter Meetings kicked up. Not good, ladies and gents, not good.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Garrett Atkins	126	354	37	80	12	1	9	48	41	58	0	0	.226	.308	.342

Definitely dodged a bullet here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Adrian Beltre	111	449	54	119	27	0	8	44	19	74	13	2	.265	.304	.379

No doubt this was a bad, bad year for Adrian, but considering his prowess with the glove (14.7 UZR/150) I can still see the Twins showing some interest. He'll be 31 next season, so a breakout season is likely out of the cards but I do believe he could quite easily be a moderately productive offensive third baseman. But considering how much the Twins would have had to give up to get him last winter, it's a good thing they didn't work it out.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Miguel Tejada	158	635	83	199	46	1	14	86	19	48	5	2	.313	.340	.455

I'm not sure Tejada would have had this good of a season in the American League, but no doubt 46 doubles is a fantastic number and slightly off-sets his steady but definitely suppressed power numbers over the last few years. Still, the reason the Twins didn't continue to pursue him during the Winter Meetings was because of what the Astros, allegedly, were asking for in return. And I know that last winter, given the option between Tejada and Crede for third base, I'd have gone with Crede.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera Athletics Twins	101 59	414 242	41 42	116 70	23 13	0 3	4 5	41 36	25 11	39 32	11 2	4 0	.280 .289	.318 .313	.365 .430

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Orlando Cabrera

Athletics

Twins

101

414

242

116

.280

.289

.318

.313

.365

.430

O-Cab finished strong with the Twins. Having him all season would have been better than who we had on board, and we found out the kind of fire, energy and leadership he can bring to a team. He's someone guys like Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla can look up to as a leader. My hesitation in wanting him back in 2010 has to deal with A) how much money he wants and B) how much worse his range can get. But yes, this is a guy that, in hindsight, would have been a good addition. At the same time I know that had the Twins brought him in last winter, I'd be wondering why they didn't try for someone better. Just goes to show you how perspective can change your mind.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jack Wilson Pirates Mariners	75 31	266 107	26 11	71 24	18 5	1 0	4 1	31 8	15 6	31 17	2 1	1 0	.267 .224	.304 .263	.387 .299

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Jack Wilson

Pirates

Mariners

266

107

.267

.224

.304

.263

.387

.299

Very good defense at shortstop (15.3 UZR/150), but miserable offense. He's the kind of guy that, with a better offense around him or more depth off the bench, I'd be happy to have as a starter. I didn't want him last season, but knowing what I know now I think I probably could have dealt with what he brings to the table. Middle infield talent was clearly an issue this season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark DeRosa Indians Cardinals	71 68	278 237	47 31	75 54	13 10	0 1	13 10	50 28	29 18	63 58	1 2	1 1	.270 .228	.342 .291	.457 .405

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Mark DeRosa

Indians

Cardinals

278

237

.270

.228

.342

.291

.457

.405

Would DeRose continued to have a good season had he spent an entire season in the American League? Who knows, but considering Cleveland got him for a song I'm still shocked the Twins didn't move on him. Maybe they just didn't like him for one reason or another, but I was a fan. No doubt he'd have spent his whole season in Minnesota had be been healthy.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kevin Kouzmanoff	141	529	50	135	31	1	18	88	27	106	1	0	.255	.302	.420

Quite a bit of chatter about Kouz around the Winter Meetings, and I know some people were fans. I wasn't. His defense wasn't bad at third this year, but offensively he's a guy like Crede--pop but no real on-base skills.

Is there anyone that I've missed? Just a little nostalgic look at last year's off-season, making me wonder what does this one have in store? I'm thinking...well, I'm thinking something to do with one of the best-hitting catchers of all time.

I'll catch you all later.

Twins are Central Division Champs!

cmathewson — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:45:32 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Carlos Gomez (22) scores the game-winning run as his teammates follow during the 12th inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2009, in Minneapolis. The Twins won 6-5 to take the AL Central title. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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They saved their best for last. In what will go down as the best regular season game in Metrodome history, the Twins matched the Tigers hit for hit and play for play, eventually winning in the bottom of the 12th to claim the Central Division Championship.

The Twins became the first team in baseball history to win the pennant after being behind by three games with four games to play. Both teams stranded runners, had runners thrown out in razor close plays, and failed in key situations. On the flip side, both teams got outs when they really needed them, especially late. Both managers used their whole bench and their whole bullpens to punch and counter punch into the 12th inning. Finally, it was Alexi Casilla, who redeemed himself for a late break on a tag play in the bottom of the 10th, to hit the game winning single, scoring Carlos Gomez from second.

Neither player started the game--Gomez was a defensive substitution and Casilla was a pinch runner. Neither player played much down the stretch as both players were benched during the season. But their presence in the middle of the mob around home plate as the Twins celebrated their fifth division championship this decade is indicative of the Twins season. It took the entire team to win this division and it took the entire team to win this game.

The largest regular season crowd in Metrodome history screamed and waved their hankies, standing for most of the extra frames. In the end, they made the loudest noise I've ever heard on TV to cheer for the most improbable comeback in baseball history. Now the team is carrying that energy into the clubhouse, spraying champagne on their teammates and hooting and hollering.

Starters Scott Baker and Rick Porcello matched each other pitch for pitch through five innings. Actually, Porcello pitched better than Baker, striking out eight in his five innings of work. He used a different approach tonight. The sinker baller threw high fastballs, striking out hitter after hitter, including the American League Batting Champion on a check swing--his first check swing strikeout of the year. But eventually Porcello tired and the Twins got him for two runs, and forcing Jim Leyland to go to his bullpen earlier than he wanted.

Baker gave up three runs in the third, but held the Tigers right there into the seventh. Jon Rauch got him out of a jam, one of six relievers to strand runners late in the game to keep the Twins in it. Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Joe Nathan, Jesse Crain and finally Bobby Keppel clawed their way through the late innings. Nathan got a big double play in his second inning of work with the winning run on third and Keppel stranded the bases loaded in the top of the 12th to get his first major league victory.

The Twins got homers from Jason Kubel and Orlando Cabrera, the latter gave the team a 4-3 lead going into the eight inning. But the Tigers came back to tie it on a homer by Maglio Ordonez. After the Ordonez homer, Ron Gardenhire brought in Nathan who got out of a jam in the eighth and into one in the ninth. But Ordonez lined into a double play to keep the game tied going into the bottom of the inning and send it into extras, where the intensity of the game seemed to dial up a notch in every inning.

The Tigers scored their fifth run in the top of the tenth off Jesse Crain. Aubrey Huff was brushed by a pitch and Brandon Inge lined a double to score pinch runner Don Kelly from first on a bang-bang play at home. But the Twins came back in the bottom of the inning. Michael Cuddyer hit what looked like a single that Ryan Raburn tried to make a circus catch on and it got by him all the way to the wall for a triple. After a ground out and a walk, Matt Tolbert hit a six hopper up the middle past Placido Polanco to score Cuddyer with the tying run.

In the top of the 12th, the Tigers loaded the bases against Bobby Keppel. Brandon Inge appeared to be hit by a pitch but was not awarded first by Plate Umpire Randy Marsh, who had a tough night behind the plate. Inge instead grounded into a 4-2 force at the plate to keep the game tied. Keppel got Gerald Laird to swing at a 3-2 slider at the shoe tops to preserve the tie and set up the 12th inning heroics.

Fernando Rodney, pitching in his fourth inning, allowed leadoff hitter Gomez to hit a single to left. Cuddyer moved him to second on a ground out. And then Leyland did the Twins a favor by intentionally walking Delmon Young to get to Alexi Casilla. Young had grounded out on the first pitch four times in the game, and Casilla was 3-6 off the tiring Rodney before rolling the first pitch into right field for the game and division winning hit.

Studs:

Joe Nathan: Five of the toughest outs of the year.

Matt Tolbert: He keep battling and coming up big in key situations.

Orlando Cabrera: His 2-run dinger gave the Twins a momentary lead and put a charge into the Dome.

Joe Mauer: 2-4 with two walks and some huge plays behind the plate on balls in the dirt.

Nick Punto: He had two huge at bats and a heads-up play to home when the conventional play would have been to second in the twelfth to preserve the tie.

Duds:

Randy Marsh: My brother Stu called me after the third inning complaining about the tight strike zone. Porcello got a lot of calls that Baker did not tonight, and that trend continued into the late innings, especially on the low strike. But Marsh was not kind to the Tigers either, missing the Inge HBP with the bases loaded in a tie game.

Delmon Young: When this guy stops swinging at the first pitch, he'll be pretty good.

Honor Redeemed:

Alexi Casilla: Casilla was down the line a couple of steps when Raburn caught what looked like the game winning sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 10th. Because of the late tag, he was thrown out at the plate by inches. If he's standing on the bag for the tag, he should have scored the winning run. Instead he hit the game winner in the bottom of the 12th.

Ryan Raburn: Rayburn played a single into a triple in the bottom of the tenth, allowing the tying run to eventually score. That same inning, he gunned down the winning run at the plate.

Metrodome Has Time for One More Miracle: Twins Win In 12

Jesse — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 01:50:03 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

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Twins 6, Tigers 5

Oh. My. God.

Oh my dear sweet baby Joe Jebus.

There are no words to describe this game. There are so many heroes. Orlando Cabrera. Matt Tolbert. Bobby Keppel (yes, you read that right). Alexi Casilla.

I'm going to leave Cmathewson to write the proper recap...but oh my god.

Oh. My. God.

Twins Win Nail-Biter In 10: Delmon Young's Insurance Run the Difference

Jesse — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:13:18 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

No, listen, Nick, it was just a high-5. It meant nothing, please don't be mad. You have my heart. Give me yours.

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F10: Twins 3, Tigers 2

To use the words of fischean: One. 1. Uno.

If you wanted intense, hard-fought baseball, you got it. If you wanted big moments, pivotal mistakes and a fantastic pitcher's duel, you got that, too. Did you want a Twins win? Granted.

Nick Blackburn struggled through the first four innings, allowing the leadoff hitter to reach three of the four innings with two of those hits being a double. Yet every time the Tigers pushed, Nick pushed back. Eight base runners through the first four innings garnered the home team just a solitary run, thanks to some nice defense (a diving Orlando Cabrera and a scoop by ~~Justin Morneau~~ Michael Cuddyer) and a great play (Cuddyer to home, Joe Mauer blocking the plate and applying the tag).

Once Nick escaped the fourth, he sent down all nine hitters through his final three innings. Blackburn settled in and turned into the big game pitcher we needed him to be.

Down 0-1 in the top of the fifth the Twins finally managed to even the score, which may have helped to take the pressure off Blackburn a little bit. Matt Tolbert led off the inning with a double, earning him his new monicker: Tol-Bear. It's French. Nick Punto then attempted his first bunt of the game, a beauty, advancing Tol-Bear to third and nearly running out the throw to first himself. Denard Span-crush then allowed Tol-Beart to tag from third to knot the score.

The Twins threatened again in the top of the ninth before managing to momentarily delay the win. Alexi Casilla doubled to lead off the inning before Tol-Bear dropped down a great bunt to move him to third base. Gardy then called up the ol' squeeze play, and with Casilla already in full sprint Punto was forced to attempt a first-pitch bunt on a ball almost over his head. Popped up, Casilla doubled off third, tear off clothes gnash teeth and generally implode all over the television set.

Enter Jon Rauch being awesome, Span getting a base hit to lead off the tenth. Cue Orlando Cabrera not ending an inning but in fact giving the Twins the lead after Span advances on a wild pitch. Twice. Joe Mauer walking, Carlos Gomez putting down another successful Minnesota bunt and Delmon Young, oh yes Delmon Young, launching a ball in a lofty nature designed to score a sacrifice run. 3-1, Twins.

Of course Joe Nathan managed to make in interesting, allowing Curtis Granderson to smash a bomb before recording an out. But he locked it down and recorded save number 45, tying Eddie Guardado for the team record.

It's all down to one, for just a few hours. Next game in just over three hours, so relax now. While you can.

Stars of the Game
#3: Orlando Cabrera (1-for-5, BIG RBI, .118 WPA)
#2: Alexi Casilla (1-for-2, BIG DOUBLE, .149 WPA)
#1: Nick Blackburn (7 IP, 4 K, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 R, .321 WPA)

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Pavano Good, Feldman Better, Rangers Blank Twins

Jesse — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 10:03:56 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

3 months ago: Texas Rangers shortstop Omar Vizquel, right, throws to first to complete the double play after forcing out the Minnesota Twins' Michael Cuddyer during the second inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Twins 0, Rangers 3. That was frustrating.

It was an early strike by the Rangers that did all the necessary damage on Saturday night. I'm glad I fell asleep during the fifth inning, because I'm pretty sure my frustration wouldn't have let me sleep.

Carl Pavano struck out Julio Borbon to start the game. Good start. Michael Young followed that up with a single and Josh Hamilton doubled into the left-center gap for a run scoring double on a liner just over the outstretched glove of Orlando Cabrera. It gave the Rangers a 1-0 lead three batters into the game, and ultimately it was all they'd need. Two batters later, Ian Kinsler kicked off his big game with a liner into center field to plate Hamilton, completing a two-run first for Texas.

In spite of Carlos Gomez slipping twice in the outfield, Pavano had a solid night. After those two runs scored, he settled in, largely kept Texas off the bases and tallied a few strikeouts.

The offense blanked itself last night as much as the Rangers did it to them. In the first, Joe Mauer grounded into a double play to end the inning. Brendan Harris grounded into another one in the second to end a possible threat. Harris doubled to lead off the fifth but was stranded there. Cabrera and Mauer ended up on second and third with one out in the sixth--Scott Feldman got Jason Kubel to pop out before Neftali Feliz got Michael Cuddyer to strike out on a wicked curveball low and away. Gameday insists it was in the strike zone, but I don't believe it.

After the sixth the Twins were retired in order, nine up and nine down. Feliz knocked them down in the seventh, C.J. Wilson pitched a perfect eighth and Frank Francisco looked every bit the stud while striking out Morneau, Kubel and Cuddyer to lock it up.

Chicago and Detroit did the Twins a favor by losing on Saturday, but these are the games this team needs to be winning. Saturday was a gift day, and it went to waste.

Sunday is another day, and another chance to win. I'll see you for the game.

Stars
#3: Jesse Crain (1.1 IP, 1 K 0 R, .048 WPA)
#2: Orlando Cabrera (0-for-2, 2 BB, .018 WPA)
#1: Carl Pavano (6 IP, 6 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 2 R, .058 WPA)

Duds
Justin Morneau -- Not a good day at the dish.
Alexi Casilla -- A pair of strikeouts, also nicht good.
Jose Mijares -- Gave up a home run to Ivan Rodriguez.