SB Nation - Garrett Jones

Fantasy Baseball: Jason's 1B Rankings

jumperjah — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 20:00:47 -0000

Morry Gash - AP

6 months ago: Cincinnati Reds' Joey Votto watches his home run during the 13th inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2009, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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Here at Fake Teams, we're in the process of releasing our writer rankings. Over the coming days, our writers will be posting their own personal rankings, and will be building composite rankings from them as well.

You can find Ray's 1B rankings here.

I have been posting my position rankings over at my blog here, and have expanded my 1B rankings along with a couple of updates.

Tier 1:

Tier 2:

Tier 3:

I think that first base is extremely deep this season. You've got a lot of power available, and some excellent hitters as well. Some players of note:

I really think that Joey Votto is going to be special this season. I think that if he's given the opportunity to steal more often, he could approach 20.
I am not a fan of Lance Berkman this season. He had a drop off in power that appears mostly related to the time he missed. While he should return to normal for those numbers, if he doesn't get back to hitting .300, he's not a whole lot different from some of the other 1B.
I would be really interested to see what Adrian Gonzalez can do if he gets traded to somewhere other than Petco Park. He is a career .300 hitter away from Petco Park, and could conceivably vault into the top tier of 1B if he did.
After the top two tiers, I think that you're really looking at finding specific needs for your team. Todd Helton would provide batting average, Paul Konerko and Carlos Pena power.

I think that unless you get one of the first tier 1B, you are probably better off waiting and filling other positional needs instead. The difference between the third tier 1B and second tier 1B is not as much as it has been in the past.

Some high-upside and deeper league plays at 1B:

Chris Carter (OAK)
Justin Smoak (TEX)
Chris Davis (TEX)
Garrett Jones (PIT)

Both Carter and Smoak will most likely start the season in the minors, but seem likely to be up in the Majors by about midseason. If Davis can get that strikeout rate under some kind of control, he will be worth owning. But if he struggles again, Smoak will probably get the call sooner rather than later.

Garrett Jones worries me a bit. If you can get him later, he could be a good sleeper. But I think it's highly unlikely that he repeats what he did in the half season he played last year. His peripheral numbers all point to last season being a career year.

Poll

Can Joey Votto hit .300 with 30 HR and 10 SB this season?

An Injury Away: NL Central Prospects Who Could Get The Call

Ray Guilfoyle — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 15:05:51 -0000

Continuing our look at the prospects who are an injury away from a call up to the big leagues, here's a look at the NL Central:

Cardinals: The Cardinals have a position battle at 3B going into spring training between Allen Craig, Tyler Greene, Joe Mather and David Freese. If history is any indication, manager Tony Larussa will pick a veteran over the prospect, leaving Freese in AAA. But Freese has the power to get the call should he not win the job out of spring training. Freese has a career .384 OBP and .532 SLG in the minors.

Pirates: The Pirates have gone young over the last few years but recently traded for former prospect Jeff Clement to play 1B for them in 2010. They also have career minor leaguer Garrett Jones starting in right field. Jones had a great second half for the Pirates, but his numbers don't jive with how he has hit in the minors, and many are expecting him to regress. Should that occur, the Pirates won't hesitate to call up 21 or 24 year old outfielder Jose Tabata to play right field. I expect that to happen by June.

Cubs: The Cubs are toying around with the idea of letting hyped SS prospect Starlin Castro start the season with the big club, but I doubt they will rush him at the age of 19. But, I could see them calling him up should they fall out of the race come July/August. For some reason, the moves GM Jim Hendry has made over the last few seasons have made the club worse.

Reds: The Reds have a logjam in leftfield to start spring training with Chris Dickerson, Wladimir Balentien, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco and possibly Jonny Gomes battling for the opening. Why the Reds would look to sign Gomes is beyond me. Once Scott Rolen takes his annual trip to the DL, I could see the Reds calling up Todd Frazier to play 3B, assuming Frazier does not make the team out of spring training. Frazier is also a candidate to play left field, and can play 2B or SS in a pinch.

Brewers: Former first round pick Mat Gamel may make the team out of spring training, but if not he could be the first hitter called up by the Brewers. Right now, it appears that Casey McGehee will start at 3B with Rickie Weeks manning 2B. Should McGehee not duplicate his 2009 season in Milwaukee, the Brew Crew could call up Gamel and see if he is the bat he was in AAA. Gamel's bat should keep him in the big leagues, as his glove is non-existent. Should the Brewers decide to deal Prince Fielder for a king's ransom, Gamel would fit in nicely at 1B.

Astros: The Astros currently have two catchers on their 40-man roster-former top prospect JR Towles and career backup Humberto Quintero. It appears Towles may get another chance to win the catchers job out of spring training, but should he falter once again, the Astros could call on top prospect Jason Castro who can hit for a good BA and has a good eye at the plate as evidenced by his .380 OBP in High-A and AA last season.

Poll

Is 2010 the season we see the real Mat Gamel?

Yes, but where will he play?

56 votes

No, he strikes out too much.

49 votes

105 votes | Poll has closed

Community Projection: Garrett Jones

Charlie — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 05:39:34 -0000

Type your guesses about Garrett Jones's 2010 average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage in the comments below. As a bonus, guess the number of solo homers Jones will hit after hitting about 82 of them in 2009. Any registered user can join in, so if you aren't registered, feel free to sign up. We'll compile the results into an overall community projection once we're done. Here are Jones' career numbers.

The community projection for Andrew McCutchen is now complete, and if my count is right there were 107 (!) guesses. Thanks to Chris Durst for making a spreadsheet that made things a little easier on me. Here are the results:

Player	Position	AVG	OBP	SLG	Bonus	ZiPS
Andrew McCutchen	CF	.287	.364	.459	13 triples	.281/.355/.446

The community projection is pretty much ZiPS' projection but with a little Pirate fan bump.

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 5: Blue Steel Buccaneers

the red baron — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 05:15:09 -0000

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I'm writing this Monday night, as I'll likely be indisposed on Wednesday. Hopefully the Pirates don't make any huge trades or signings before then.

You know what I would do if I had, like, a billion dollars? I would commission a remake of the movie "Toys". Just one of the worst movies I've ever seen (though only about the seventh or eighth worst movie Robin Williams has ever made), but I really like it. And it had such promise. I picture my version as something like a really sad combination of "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory", "Finding Neverland", and "Metropolis". I'm fairly certain everyone but me would hate it, but I'm willing to take that chance. Unfortunately, my bank statement shows a balance slightly less than a billion dollars at the moment, so my dreams of celluloid glory are on hold for now. However, if anyone reading this blog has $100 million they would like to do something really stupid with, I could probably have you a script before summer.

Oh, and I would also do two chicks at the same time.

Let's take a look at the final team in the NL Central, shall we?

Pittsburgh Pirates 2009 Record: 62-99, 28.5 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 67-94 (636 runs scored, 768 runs allowed)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a bad baseball team. There's really no way around it. Dress it up however you like, it's still a bad baseball team. They nearly lost 100 games last year, and that Pythagorean record shows it wasn't a fluke. Sure, they were probably more of a mid- than high-90s loss team in actuality, but that's not an argument you can really win, regardless of the outcome.

I already covered one of Pittsburgh's moves this offseason, that of trading for Akinori Iwamura from Tampa Bay, and it actually taught me one of the most valuable lessons I've learned as a professional writer. The lesson is this: when you don't know much about a subject, do your research before you write about it. When a trade happens, if you only have half an hour before you have to leave your house and computer, do not, under any circumstances, try to just wing it and get a quick piece up in order to be timely. The news will still be there when you get home, and you won't look like a complete horse's ass for forgetting Jack Wilson was traded to the Mariners. Accuracy is preferable to immediacy. (A related lesson can be found in the Cubs' version of this series, when I mistakenly listed Derrek Lee as a player who underperformed last season as a result of hurried rearranging of sentences and not proofreading properly.)

Offense

After so many years of hearing how the Pittsburgh Pitching Revolution would not be televised (or, at least, it wouldn't be watched if it was), it was the offense that provided most of the excitement in Privateer country in 2009. Well, perhaps excitement is stretching it a bit; this is a team which managed to score less than 650 runs, after all. But pieces of the offense most definitely did make some noise. The noisiest? Andrew McCutchen, of course. McCutchen looks like an emerging star after a rookie season in which he essentially looked a lot like what we were all hoping Colby Rasmus would be. Great speed, great defense, and a 122 OPS+ as a 22 year old. What's not to like?

As for the rest of the Pirate offense, it's pretty much up in the air, quite honestly. The club traded away Nate McClouth, their best offensive player, at mid-season. Also moved was Freddy Sanchez, their All-Star second baseman. With two of their more imposing offensive forces no longer in the lineup, the Pirates struggled mightily to figure out where the run production was going to come from. Formerly imposing Ryan Doumit slumped to a .299 OBP, short-circuiting what was becoming an intriguing career. There is reason to believe, though, he could bounce back with a fully healthy 2010 campaign.

To address that concern in 2010, the Pirates have a few options. McCutchen will be on board for a full season, which will be a huge boon. Iwamura won't likely be a huge upgrade over Freddy Sanchez, but he should provide a solid piece for whatever puzzle the Pirates are constructing this season. In addition to the hoped-for improvement from Doumit, the Pirates will also have another option at catcher in Jeff Clement, acquired from the Seattle Mariners. Clement has never quite lived up to the lofty expectations he carried with him early in his minor league career, but he's still young and has a ton of power potential if nothing else.

The presence of Clement could also set up an interesting choice for Pittsburgh at first base, as they have Pedro Alvarez, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, very nearly ready to make a splash at the big league level. Clement has never been much of a catcher, but doesn't project to move anywhere but first.

And really, that's sort of the story for the Pirates in 2010. They have a bunch of young players, but nearly every one of them has questions.

Garrett Jones put up a .938 OPS in a half season's worth of playing time, but he's also a 29 year old former prospect who's drifted around the minors for a long time. He could be Ryan Ludwick, of course, but guys who play their rookie season close to 30 aren't always a great bet going forward. Jones also has positional questions, though what I've seen of him he looks just fine in the outfield. I am, however, basing that on seeing him catch about five fly balls.

Andy LaRoche is a former super prospect in the Dodgers' farm system who has found the major leagues rough going. His glove is still plenty solid, but his bat just hasn't ever developed as it was expected to. Overall, he's probably about league average, combining a 95 OPS+ with a glove that was worth a little over 5 runs by UZR in 2009. Certainly a useful player, but nothing earth-shattering. (Interestingly, +/- has him pegged as exactly a 5 run fielder as well; I believe it's the first time I've ever seen UZR and +/- have the exact same value for a player.)

Alvarez, as I mentioned before, has one of the best bats in the minors, but comes with a positional question. He plays third now, but he plays third sort of like Brett Wallace played third: as a short-term solution, at best. The path of least resistance would be to move Alvarez to first and leave LaRoche at third base, but it's tough to say what the Pirates will do. They could certainly send him down to the minors for just a little while and hold off free agency a season longer, much as the Rays did with Evan Longoria. Regardless, when Alvarez is ready, he'll probably move whoever is ahead of him.

Lastings Milledge is another former big time prospect, but remains better known for sexual assault allegations and bad rap music than anything he's done on the field.

Steven Pearce looked like a world-beater just a couple years ago, but has stagnated since. He also suffers from the same positional affliction as several other players, but a more virulent strain. Call it Mark Hamilton Syndrome.

The long and short of it is this: the Pirates have a fair number of interesting players, all of them with warts, and it's really impossible at the moment to see how they're going to fit together. First and foremost will likely be a decision on Alvarez. If he's in the majors, he's likely the everyday first baseman. If - and I think this is more likely - he's sent to the minors to begin the season, first base will probably be filled by a combination of several players until Alvarez is ready. Of course, they could also put him at third base, in which case LaRoche would become movable. (And worth checking into, in my ever so humble.)

There is one other really intriguing storyline to consider, and that's the role of Bobby Crosby on this team. A former rising star for Oakland early in his career, Crosby has since seen injuries and poor play derail his personal train. There isn't really a ton of competition for the shortstop spot, so Crosby could easily win the lion's share of playing time. I'm not projecting a career renaissance or anything, but I will be interested to see if Crosby can recapture any of his sparkle.

The most important thing to remember about the Pittsburgh Pirates' offense in 2010 is this: we won't have to play against Nyjer Morgan.

Starting Pitching

How many years has it been now since we first started hearing about the young pitching revolution of the Pirates? A decade? Longer? Well, okay, so probably just since about 2005 or so, when Zach Duke burst onto the scene and proceeded to make people who talk about peripherals look really dumb for about three months and then really smart for the ensuing four years.

Well, I'm here to tell you this: the revolution is not coming. What we've seen from the young turks of the Pirate staff is pretty much what we are going to see as they become veteran turks, middle-aged turks, and finally old turks.

I will say this: the Pirate rotation should be fairly decent this year. Not great, not terrifying, but decent. Paul Maholm and Ross Ohlendorf are both plenty good, and I think Duke will prove to be a reliably league-averagish pitcher going forward. None of the three are really the sort of pitcher you want to see at the top of a rotation, but all three should provide plenty of innings at a reasonable level. Ohlendorf has the least track record of the three, but his superior stuff gives him a chance to be a tick better than either of the lefties, I believe.

One really intriguing storyline to watch this year as the Pirates fill out their rotation is what they decided to do with Brad Lincoln. A top pick in 2006, Lincoln's career hit a snag when Tommy John surgery forced him to miss all of 2007, but he pitched fairly well at two levels in 2008 as he came back, and really started to put himself back on the prospect map last year with a very strong Double A showing. He moved up to Triple A and his numbers took a hit, but Lincoln still looks like a very viable rotation option sometime in the 2010 season. Lincoln probably has better stuff than any of the Pirates' incumbents, with the possible exception of Ohlendorf (though I think Lincoln's breaking stuff is a bit better), and he has the potential to actually pitch toward the front of a major league rotation. Maybe not an ace, but a #2 ceiling guy. (Then again, maybe he isn't that much different from Ohlendorf...) He would probably be better served with a half season more in the minors, but if there's one thing the Pirates have proven, it's that there's no pitching prospect they won't rush.

As for the back end of the rotation, the Pirates will employ a variety of pitchers to fill in the last spot(s). Guys like Charlie Morton, Kevin Hart, and maybe Bryan Morris will all get some innings, as well as any other NRI type guys Pittsburgh may bring in for spring training. There isn't a whole lot to like about this group, but then again, it is the 5th starter spot we're talking about.

Bullpen

I do think if the Pirates are going to have a chance of even approaching .500 this year (and I'm not saying they are, but I'm also not saying they aren't), it will likely be thanks to an improved bullpen from years past. There are actually some useful arms here, starting at the top with Octavio Dotel closing games. I've been a fan of Dotel since his salad days in Houston, and thought he would have made a fine addition to the Cardinals this season as a back-end reliever. (See, I'm trying to avoid the C word when speaking about our own team.) Dotel's health is always a question, but when he's able to take the mound, he's nasty. He should certainly represent an upgrade over the 2009 version of Matt Capps. Evan Meek showed a strong arm capable of getting a strikeout when needed. The Pirates brought in 39 year old Brendan Donnelly, who actually threw quite well for the Florida Marlins in limited duty last year. I don't expect much from him, but he should still be useful in a Russ Springery sort of way.

One of the more intriguing names in the Pirate bullpen could be Craig Hansen, the former Boston farmhand who was supposed to be Daniel Bard before Bard was. Hansen struggled with the transition to the majors and declining stuff until he was diagnosed last year with a nerve disorder that had weakened his trapezius muscle. There's no clear timetable for a return, but if he can come back in 2010 and is actually healthy, Hansen could be a wild card.

I honestly don't know enough about the Pittsburgh farm system to speak to whether there is any significant bullpen help on the way any time soon, so I'll refrain from speculating. Daniel Moskos is hanging around somewhere being developed as a starter, but I don't think that was going very well last I checked. Maybe he moves back to relief? I do know Donal Veal, the former Cubs' prospect, put together a very nice performance in the Arizona Fall League, showing signs of regaining some of his prospect lustre, but I don't know if the Pirates view him as a starter, reliever, bird, hare, or fish.

Offseason Priorities

The Pirates are really a tough team to pin down to priorities for the offseason because so much of their team seems up in the air. The rotation is mostly set, with three solid starters and one solid prospect due to show up sometime this year, but the offense could end up with several different looks, depending on how certain moves shake out. As I said earlier, what the Pirates choose to do with Pedro Alvarez will likely make a huge impact on the rest of the team. The bullpen should be solid, I believe, and won't cost Pittsburgh many games. The Pirates did make a move to address one of their more glaring weaknesses, that of a stopper for the ends of games, but the question still remains: how valuable is a good closer if you don't give him leads to hold?

The Bottom Line

Pittsburgh is a team largely in flux, and extraordinarily hard to get a read on. That being said, they do have two of the more exciting young offensive talents in all of baseball (McCutchen and Alvarez), and both should be taking the field at PNC together sometime this season. They have a rotation that shouldn't kill them and a bullpen that should hold together. There's a ton of competition for a bunch of open spots, but at least there are some talented players to take part in those competitions.

Will this be the year the Pirates finally break their string of sub-.500 seasons? I'm going to say no. Give it one more year; they'll be pretty good in 2011, I think. But I also don't think they'll approach 100 losses again this year. There's too much talent on this team for them to be as bad as they were last year.

Then again, we are talking about the Pittsburgh Pirates, so all bets are off.

The Baron's Playlist for the 27th of January, 2010 - Covers to Learn and Sing

In honour of the recent late night cover song conversation.

"The Killing Moon" - Pavement

"Earth Angel" - Death Cab for Cutie

"For All we Know" - Bettie Serveert

"Don't Stop Believin'" - Petra Hayden

"Heartbreak Hotel" - John Cale

"Jealous Guy" - Roxy Music

"Jolene" - the White Stripes

"Rocket Man" - Kate Bush

Fantasy Baseball: Top 5 Pittsburgh Pirates for 2010

Ray Guilfoyle — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 15:00:31 -0000

The Pirates are the last team to cover in the NL Central in the Top 5 series, then I will address the NL West. The Pirates are becoming a younger and younger team over the last few years after trading away guys like Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez.

Let's take a look at the Pirates Top 5 for 2010:

1. Andrew McCutchen-McCutchen had a wonderful first season in the majors in 2009 going 12-54-74-22-.286-.365-.471 in 433 at bats. He has a nice power/speed combo where he could provide a 20-20 season in the near future. I am not sure that happens in 2010 though. Bill James project him to go 13-61-90-31-.281-.353-.430. I think that is about right, and he could easily steal 35+.

2. Garrett Jones-times are tough in Pittsburgh when Jones is your #2 fantasy player for 2010. I say that because we don't know if 2009 was a fluke or a breakout. Jones also had a great 2009 season for fantasy owners going 21-44-45-10-.293-.372-.567 in 314 at bats. Could we see a repeat of 2009? Sure. James project 25-88-78-14-.271-.330-.479 in 2010. Jones has hit for power in the minors, but has stolen more than 10 bases in a season just once before last season. He had a HR/FB% OF 21.2% in 2009, which I don't think is sustainable.

3. Pedro Alvarez-I was going to put him as a sleeper, but I think he will be up in June and still be in the Pirates Top 5 by season's end. Especially when picking from the likes of Lastings Milledge, Andy Laroche and Ryan Doumit. Alvarez has alot of power and he displayed it at two levels in 2009 going 27-95-.288-.378-.535. He also threw in 32 doubles. Pirates fans will be calling for him come May 1st I think.

4. Lastings Milledge-I recently wrote about Milledge here, projecting him as a sleeper since he appears ready for a breakout season. He is not a sleeper in the Top 5 as he should be one of the better Pirates in fantasy terms considering who he is up against. I think he has the potential to be the second best Pirate in 2010 for fantasy purposes. Bill James projects him to go 11-60-22-.284-.340-.413 in 2010. I think he could be closer to his 2008 stats in Washington where he went 14-61-24-.268.

5. Octavio Dotel-the Buccos recently signed him to be their closer. Dotel hasn't closed since 2007 where he had 11 saves, and prior to that was 2004 where he had 36 saves for the Astros and Braves. Dotel won't help you in the WHIP category as he walks alot of guys, but he will strikeout alot of guys as well as evidenced by his 10.98 career K/9.

Sleeper Alert: Andy Laroche-Alvarez will probably push Laroche to 2B at some point in early 2010, but Laroche has to break out soon, right? If he can stick at 2B, I can see him hitting 15-20 HRs in 2010. Laroche went 12-64-64-.258-.330-.401 in 2009, and James projects him to go 15-69-71-.254-.338-.402 in 2010. He was a streaky hitter in the minors, and I am curious if his September line of 5-18-.313-.359-.552 is a sign of things to come in 2010.

A Closer Look: Nelson Cruz

ILLZ — Sat, 23 Jan 2010 18:06:32 -0000

Nelson who? Where did this guy come from? He's how old? 29 going on 30?

Cruz appeared out of fantasy baseball obscurity in late 2008 to hit .330 with 7 HR and 3 SB in only 115 AB's. I don't know if I'd go so far as to say he was "hyped" going into 2009 but he was certainly on the fantasy radar. I can admit that I had little interest in him. I'm very wary of guys that suddenly OPS 120 points higher than they ever have before at the age of 28 (which is what he did in 2008 between AAA and the majors). Come to think of it, that sounds a lot like Garrett Jones this season... hmm...

Well, my doubts were proven wrong when Cruz posted a serious major league breakout in 2009, hitting .260 with 33 HR, 20 SB, and 151 R/RBI. The relevant question now is, what is he likely to do this season?

Skill-wise, he has sort of a mixed bag. His walk rate has been acceptable and sustained for 2 seasons but he struggles a bit to make contact. That will probably supress his ability to hit for average. His value lies in his power/speed combo though, and here is where he's looking great. SB success rate was fantastic (83%) and his power is real, as he slugged .551/.524 in back to back seasons with similar hr/f percentages. His flyball rate went UP last season, which is great news for his power prospects.

Cruz had only 462 AB's as he dealt with some nagging injuries along the way, but this was a great season fully supported by his peripherals. If he can stay healthy all year, sustain that FB rate, and maybe make a little more contact he's in store for a big one... I'm talking .290/40/20 with 200 R/RBI. That's probably about his upside potential. Weird that a guy that turns 30 in July is pretty much in a growth stage. Realistically, I'd draft him with something like .260/30/20 in mind.

Poll

Nelson Cruz total HR/SB this year... 55

Over

40 votes

Under

73 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

UPDATE: Pirates, Ryan Church Reach Agreement

Charlie — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 20:59:55 -0000

UPDATE: The Post-Gazette actually says the Pirates would mostly use Church as a reserve and an insurance policy, which would be better than I imagined below. I still wonder how they're going to distribute playing time between Church and Clement, though.

UPDATE II: The deal is done. Church will take a physical later this week, after which the contract will be finalized. No word yet on the money involved.

I'm fine with this, I suppose; unlike some of the other options the Bucs have considered, Church is an unambiguously decent player. His hitting is fine, if uninspiring, and it always has been; his defense is solid enough even for center field; he has a great arm; and he's not old. The only problem is that he's a bit of an injury magnet.

The trick is where he would fit in. The two positions the Pirates have unsettled are first and right, with Garrett Jones slotting into one of those positions. If the Pirates sign Church, he would presumably take the bulk of the playing time in right, with Jones moving to first. The problem is that both Jones and Church are lefties, and so are Jeff Clement and Brandon Moss, who are the next two guys down the depth chart at those positions. Unless the Pirates still think Clement can catch, it looks like it would be very tough for them to find playing time for him unless Jones or Church falters.

The real loser if Church signs might be Moss, who might not even make the team. Moss was stretched as a starter, but as a good defender with some offensive skills (that, admittedly, Pirates fans haven't seen yet), he'd be a fine fourth outfielder. With a glut of lefty hitters already competing for playing time, though, the right-handed John Raynor looks like a much better option as a backup. An even better choice for the bench might be Steve Pearce--Church is a fine hitter, but he probably should sit against lefties, and Pearce can punish lefties. Moss is out of options, though, so he has to make the team or the Pirates risk losing him.

I appreciate that Church is a pretty good player, and it's a positive, all things considered, to have pretty good players. But I'm curious about how the Pirates would handle Clement, who I'd like to see get a clean shot at some playing time. And while I wouldn't lose sleep over a backup like Moss, I'd also be curious to see how John Russell handles the mess of left-handed hitters. If the Pirates sign Church, the fact that he's usually either effective or hurt might be a blessing in disguise: when he's on the field, he'll be good, and when he needs to sit out, the Pirates can play Clement.

Jeff Clement Penciled in at First

Charlie — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:03:59 -0000

The Post-Gazette has an interesting item about Jeff Clement and the first base job. The Pirates seem not to mind that some of their top targets for extra corner players (Xavier Nady and Rick Ankiel in particular) are unlikely to sign until late in the offseason. This means they're probably relatively happy with the players currently at the top of their depth chart (Clement at first, and Garrett Jones in right) and want an extra guy mainly to provide competition and to guard against a flameout by Clement or someone else.

This seems sensible. As a fourth-outfielder / insurance policy, Nady is actually fairly interesting to me, since he's right-handed. But Ankiel is a lefty like Clement. And it's not really clear that Nady or Ankiel are better than Clement right now anyway. ZiPS, for example, predicts Clement will have an .801 OPS next year. (Incidentally, it also predicts Matt Capps will have the lowest ERA on the staff. Oops.) Nady is at .780. I don't think a ZiPS projection for Ankiel has been published yet, but Bill James has him at .763.

Now, both Nady and Ankiel would be doing the Pirates a service by keeping Jones out of the outfield, so they provide more defensive value than Clement probably would. And certainly projections can turn out to be wrong, particularly with injury magnets like these three guys, etc. etc. etc. (Don't think you're being original by pointing that out, either.) The point, though, is that if the Bucs have resigned themselves to second- or third-tier free agents like Nady and Ankiel (as is probably appropriate at this point), they're right to not feel much urgency about this. Clement might well end up being better than the available options anyway, and if things get bad, there's also Steve Pearce, Delwyn Young and Brandon Moss--and possibly Jose Tabata and Pedro Alvarez--to fall back on. An additional benefit of starting Clement is that the Pirates can control his rights for several years if he succeeds, and since Tabata and Alvarez could begin to complicate things staring in about July, it behooves the Bucs to see what they have in Clement.

The best reason for the Pirates to sign a free agent outfielder or first baseman is not to replace someone currently penciled into the starting lineup, but to guard against a complete failure, and I don't just mean by Clement. Not to take a shot at someone who thoroughly proved me wrong throughout 2009, but last season Jones played like he knew how to fly. Maybe he really can fly, but given his lengthy and undistinguished history, the Pirates also have to consider the possibility that instead of flying his legs were just moving really fast for a few seconds, like Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff. Clement, Jones and Lastings Milledge should all be in the starting lineup, but if possible there should be legitimate fallback options too.

Winter Meetings Primer, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:15:52 -0000

Sure, it's a rumor-filled week that generally leads to nothing. But it's still a rumor-filled week, and to me that equals fun.

Twins Needs

Second Base
Third Base
Starting Pitcher
Bench Depth
Joe Mauer Extension

Between LEN III and Joe C., the Twins have been tied to a few names already this off-season: Mark DeRosa, Rich Harden, Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn and Orlando Hudson. There has been little speculation fueled by comments from the front office, although this has been commonplace during the Bill Smith era. Now entering his third Winter Meetings and in the best position to win since taking on the role of General Manager, it will be interesting to see if the rumors lead to anything concrete this season.

Obviously the Twins are still in the market for at least one infielder after picking up J.J. Hardy a few weeks ago, and the recent (and early) signings of Chone Figgins (four years, $36 million), Placido Polanco (three years, $18 million) and Marco Scutaro (two years, $12.5 million with an option for more) seem to set the market for starting infielders. Considering the combination of age and history I feel like all three teams overpaid, on either years or dollars or both.

Last season at this time there was a lot of talk surrounding Casey Blake and Garrett Atkins, and there's been nothing quite like that this season. This front office, and I've said it before, plays things notoriously close to the vest. Sure, it might not make for interesting discussion fodder, but it serves the best interests of the team.

A vast majority of the time all of the rumors and speculation lead to absolutely nothing during the week of the Winter Meetings. The common theme is for teams to read each other and, if possible, lay a foundation for things to happen over the following weeks. But that doesn't mean we won't hear some interesting tidbits over the next few days.

Names of Interest (after the break)

Adrian Beltre - With the Phillies signing Polanco, one of the Twins main competetors for the free agent third baseman may have just taken themselves out of the market. The biggest issue surrounding Beltre is Scott Boraas and his $10 million per year asking price. Even for his glove, I'm not sure Minnesota is going to fork out that kind of money for Beltre.

Mark DeRosa - He's also been rumored to be asking for nearly $10 million per season. Yikes.

Josh Johnson - The Marlins have said that Johnson won't be traded this off-season, but it's always hard to tell what's truth and what's posturing. If his name comes up this week, or at anytime over the next couple of months, I'll be listening.

Rich Harden - Along with Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, it will be interesting to see how much teams are willing to gamble on these guys. Will the Twins maintain their interest in Harden?

Jed Lowrie - With the Red Sox the proud owners of a Scutaro, will he be on the block?

Carl Pavano - Will he accept arbitration?

Dan Uggla - The Marlins second baseman has been linked to about half of the teams in baseball at some point over the last couple of months, although no team has been connected more often than the Giants. His offense as a second baseman is superior, and in spite of his defense is still probably a three-win player.

In Closing

The Winter Meetings this season aren't set to be quite as interesting as they were the last couple of seasons, if only because the first thing on everyone's mind isn't really who else the front office can bring in but who can they sign to an extension. "General discussions" between the Twins and Mauer have begun, but nothing hard core so far, so stay tuned.

It's an exciting time of year. Be sure to keep checking back here for the latest rumblings and grumblings.

Poll

Make the call: what, if anything, will happen this week at the Winter Meetings for the Minnesota Twins?

They'll pull off some kind of a trade

79 votes

They'll lay foundations for discussions after the meetings

127 votes

They'll sign a free agent

57 votes

Nothing

137 votes

400 votes | Poll has closed

Lefties, Lefties Everywhere

Charlie — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 06:47:35 -0000

Straight to the point today: one thing I find a bit strange about the idea of the Pirates pursuing Rick Ankiel and/or Hank Blalock is that both those guys are left-handed, whereas most of the Bucs' other options at first base and right field (Garrett Jones, Jeff Clement, Brandon Moss) are too. Steve Pearce is the only righty who might be in the mix right now at first and right, and I can't believe the Bucs are still taking him seriously. If the idea in pursuing an extra corner guy is to add an extra bit of upside and perhaps hope for a nice prospect at the deadline if the new player does well, I can't really fault the Pirates for not considering the player's handedness. But if the Pirates really are serious about seeing what they have in Clement, in particular, it would seem to behoove them to find someone whose skills complement his.

Admittedly, the pickings in that area are pretty slim. Two righty free agent outfielders who might make a bit of sense are Marlon Byrd and Coco Crisp. Byrd was a regular for the Rangers this year and has played pretty well for three straight seasons, so he might require the sort of multiyear contract to which the Pirates would probably rather not commit themselves.

Crisp is a subpar hitter, but he's not old, and he's an outstanding defensive player; he could certainly handle either left or center (if that were required) in PNC. Unfortunately, his throwing arm was poor even before he had surgery on both shoulders this year, so playing him in right wouldn't work. If he were added to the roster, the Pirates could work out some sort of time share where Lastings Milledge and Garrett Jones played every day but rotated between left and right (Milledge) and right and first (Jones), while Clement and Crisp formed some sort of weird semi-platoon at the other available positions.

...This is all really speculative, and Crisp obviously isn't ideal, but I'm trying to be creative here. Given the free agent market, I can see why the Pirates would be interested in Ankiel and Blalock, and I'm not opposed to signing either of them, if they'd be willing to play in Pittsburgh. But, as much as PNC is kinder to lefties than righties, it seems a bit strange to crowd the roster with lefties. Maybe a low-leverage trade or an inspired minor league free agent signing (Ernesto Mejia of the Braves, perhaps?) would be the right move here, with the righty Pearce's initial role being determined by how credible a major league option the new acquisition is.