SB Nation - Carlos Silva

~Where We Stand With Regard To The Moneys

Jeff — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 23:46:43 -0000

The following table shows what our payroll situation would be if we built a team from what we already have in-house. Some figures are exact, and others, such as those of the arbitration-eligibles, are approximations.

(Don't worry about things like, say, Jason Vargas showing up instead of Garret Olson. It doesn't matter.)

Right now we're looking at salary commitments totaling $65-70m. The 2009 Mariners cost about $99m, so assuming a fairly similar but slightly reduced budget going forward, that leaves us with $25-30m of room to play with, with a number of spots at which we could stand to improve.

Damn you, Carlos Silva.

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

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Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

All Ex-Twins Team, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:09:33 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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2008 Roster
2006 Roster

For the second year in a row I tried to put together a full 25-man roster, and while I made the cut this team has some pretty big holes. Generally it's old, which is surprising, and there's going to be some pretty bad defense in places, but if any of the three outfielders get hurt there's nobody to be a fourth outfielder. Luckily, none of the guys on this team have to play a single game.

Without further ado, your batting order:

Name	Pos	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	'09 Team	With Twins
Jason Bartlett	SS	.320	.389	.490	14	66	Rays	'04 - '07
Luis Castillo	2B	.302	.387	.346	1	40	Mets	'06 - '07
Garrett Jones	RF	.293	.372	.567	21	44	Pirates	2007
Torii Hunter	CF	.299	.366	.508	22	90	Angels	'97 - '07
Casey Blake	3B	.280	.363	.468	18	79	Dodgers	'00 - '02
Randy Ruiz	1B	.313	.385	.635	10	17	Blue Jays	2008
David Ortiz	DH	.238	.332	.462	28	99	Red Sox	'97 - '02
A.J. Pierzynski	C	.300	.331	.425	13	49	White Sox	'98 - '03
Craig Monroe	LF	.215	.287	.354	3	16	Pirates	2008

All in all that's not a bad offensive lineup. According to Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, this offense would blow last year's out of the water: 5.741 runs per game, or about 930 runs over the course of a full season. Even with Jones and Monroe being stone defenders in the outfield corners, those runs are going to make up the difference.

The tool also insists that all of the best lineups would have Monroe hitting 8th and Castillo 9th, while a vast majority of the best lineups still have Bartlett leading off, but they also have Ruiz batting cleanup with his massive OBP and SLG in limited time.

Your bench? Outfielder-less. Henry Blanco of the Pirates is your catcher, followed by a trio of infielders: Cristian Guzman (Nationals), Adam Everett (Tigers) and Juan Castro (Dodgers).

Next up? Your starting rotation:

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
Johan Santana	13-9	3.13	166.2	146	46	Mets	'00 - '07
Matt Garza	8-12	3.95	203.0	189	79	Rays	'06 - '07
Kyle Lohse	6-10	4.74	117.2	77	36	Cardinals	'01 - '06
Livan Hernandez	9-12	5.44	183.2	102	67	Mets/Nationals	2008
Sidney Ponson	1-7	7.36	58.2	32	25	Royals	2007

I want you to know that I seriously considered going with a three-man rotation, a three-man bench, and then having a nine-man bullpen, but the reality is that even the bullpen pickings get a little thin once you get six or seven deep. As far as other starters I could have considered, there aren't many guys out there right now. Carlos Silva? Absolutely not.

Last season saw Santana, Lohse and Garza as the top three in the rotation as well. Moving onto the bullpen, last year I had Balfour closing, but this season I'd probably tab Hawkins.

Name	W-L	ERA	IP	K	BB	'09 Team	With Twins
LaTroy Hawkins	1-4	2.13	63.1	45	16	Astros	'95 - '03
Craig Breslow	7-5	2.60	55.1	44	18	Athletics	'08 - '09
J.C. Romero	0-0	2.70	16.2	12	13	Phillies	'99 - '05
Joe Beimel	1-6	3.58	55.1	35	19	Nationals/Rockies	2004
Grant Balfour	5-4	4.81	67.1	69	33	Rays	'01 - '04
Eddie Guardado	1-2	4.46	38.1	20	15	Rangers	'93 - '03, '08

Even in limited time, Romero is still managing to escape at least the appearance of damage in spite of some unnerving peripherals. Like the bench and the back of the rotation, this one of this team's weaker spots.

If injuries weren't a factor, how would this team fare over a season? Would an offense like this be able to keep this team afloat with the help of a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation? Or would those unproven bats pair up with some older arms to bring the team's fortunes crashing to earth?

Guys who have made the team each of the three years: Pierzynski, Blake, Ortiz, Beimel, Romero and Hawkins.

Poll

How would this team fare?

They could compete for a division title

169 votes

Probably a .500 team

322 votes

Bottom dwellers, for sure

181 votes

672 votes | Poll has closed

Using These SBN-Provided Player Photos For All That They're Worth

Jeff — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 05:15:40 -0000

Time to (partially) make good on a promise I delivered many moons ago and classify all the Mariners on the 40-man roster by the appearance of their pictures. If someone doesn't show up below, it's because SBN doesn't have a photo available. Names not included for the sake of protecting Justin Thomas.

TIER 1 (Doesn't look like he smells)

TIER 2 (Doesn't look like he smells, but is standing close to someone who does)

TIER 3 (Can't tell if he smells but something is clearly wrong with him)

TIER 4 (Looks like he smells, but doesn't know it)

TIER 5 (Looks like he smells and knows that he smells)

TIER 6 (Looks like he smells, knows that he smells, and loves that he smells)

Insane Trade Ideas Involving Jose Guillen

royalsreview — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 17:37:52 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

The Dayton Moore Era has reduced us to this. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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Jose Guillen will earn $12 million dollars next year. He's not a good baseball player: he can't hit anymore and he is probably one of the two or three worst outfielders in the American League. He's in the way. He makes life more complicated for the Royals, and frankly, the Royals don't need things to be any more difficult than they already are.

The Royals need to trade Jose Guillen. Everybody realizes this. The only problem is that there is no real trade market for a terrible and expensive ballplayer with injury history who also happens to have a horrible reputation in the industry (Dayton Moore everyone!).

I don't think we can overstate just how unappealing he is right now, which is why the Royals should simply release him and move on. I really have no sense of how likely this is. Yes, just two years ago Moore voluntarily brought Guillen in, and yes, his bad play is not a recent development. That being said, Moore has shown an ability to cut bait on a failed experiment (Tony Pena Jr., Gload) albeit in a tardy fashion before. It would not stun me if this happened, although it would not stun me if Guillen is the Opening Day starter in right-field either.

There is one way the Royals might be able to trade Guillen, and that is to use him to solve someone else's problem. Many have suggested a seemingly logical Guillen-Bradley trade with the Cubs in just this vein. Bradley's situation in Chicago is certainly toxic, however, he remains an actually good player and, despite a widespread assumption that his contract is a disaster, he's set to earn just $9 million in 2010 and $12 million in 2011. I think the Cubs will hear better offers than a Guillen swap.

The key for the Royals might be finding someone who should be as desperate as they are. I think they can do this by inquiring about overpaid players signed to long-term deals. Can the Royals turn Jose Guillen into someone else's salary dump? The key is to think less about the money and more about the player, if the Royals can turn Jose Guillen into a good player, they should at least consider the move. Granted, I think many of these proposed trades are insane. I'm probably shaming all of us by even giving them the light of day. However, I also think that there's a small bit of "hey, this isn't half bad, maybe there's something to this."

Let's go:

Insane Idea #1- Guillen for Vernon Wells. Wells has a no-trade clause and would probably hate the idea of coming to Kansas City. Nevertheless, the situation in Toronto has soured and he may not want to be a Blue Jay as the team (presumably) rebuilds. In exchange for the last year of Guillen's contract, the Royals would have to take on Wells' deal, which is downright onerous: $12.5 M in 2010, $23 M in 2011, $21 M in 2012, $21 M in 2013, $21 M in 2014. That's $98.5 million, though in effect only $86.5 million after the swap. The catch is that Wells might be a productive player for most of this deal. He had a anti-career year in 2009 and he needs to leave CF. If he does the latter, he'll regain alot of his overall value, which could coincide with a few bounceback years at the plate. Yea, from a pure WAR perspective he will not earn his salary, but if he's a $9 million dollar player earning $23 million, that's not the end of the world. Yea, 2012-2014 are gonna be pretty painful, but if the Royals are gonna try to compete in 2010, an outfield of DeJesus-Someone-Wells has the potential to be really good defensively, with two nice bats. I think the Jays would make this deal right now, so maybe the Royals get greedy and ask for some money back in the swap or even a favorable secondary exchange of prospects. (Wells also has an opt-out option after 2011, which seems unspeakably unlikely to occur, but I thought it was worth mentioning.)
Insane Idea #2- Guillen for Barry Zito. A similar trade as above. Zito has $94 million left on a contract that runs through 2014, if an option for the final year vests. I'd be afraid of Zito returning to the American League, but his mini-comeback season in 2009 makes this trade one you'd at least pause to consider. If you assume the 2013 club option (which is tied to innings) doesn't vest and factor in the Guillen savings, then the Zito contract is equivalent to a four year, $64 million dollar deal. The Royals would head into Spring Training with a rotation of Greinke, Meche, Tejeda/Bannister/Davies/Hochevar #1, Tejeda/Bannister/Davies/Hochevar#2, and Zito. With Tejeda/Bannister/Davies/Hochevar#3 potentially a high-leverage bullpen arm and insurance policy. Zito was overrated as an A and is probably underrated now. Yea, his contract sucks, but it isn't your money.Tell me you're not doing a double take on this one? OK, maybe you aren't.
Insane Idea #3- Guillen for Carlos Silva. Silva is owed $23 million total for 2010-11, which becomes $25 million with a presumed buyout after 2011. Silva's contract is terrible, but he's also much worse than Zito or Wells. Less money, lesser player. However, when you factor in the savings of Guillen's salary, he's only really the next Kyle Farnsworth. I don't want Moore trading with Dr. Z anymore, but this isn't a completely unmerited trade for either side. Maybe Silva even gives you a 0.7 WAR season or something, it could happen.
Insane Idea #4- Guillen for Aaron Rowand. Rowand has three years and $36 million remaining on a fat contract signed two years ago. I'm not sure the Giants view him as a problem, but with his annual salary set to increase, they could be interested in moving him to help their chances of keeping Tiny Tim around. Rowand, like Wells, may eventually need to leave centerfield, but he probably wouldn't be terrible there in 2010. A DDJ-Someone-Rowand outfield would be very strong defensively, which could help make up for Rowand's subpar bat. If you factor in the Guillen savings, this swap would leave the Royals paying Rowand $8 million a year.
Insane Idea #5- Guillen for Gary Matthews Jr. Did you know that Gary Matthews Jr.'s regrettable contract now only has two years remaining? Matthews is owed $23 million total for 2010-11, which is barely anything compared to some of the guys we've seen. The GMJ contract has to go down as one of the worst of the decade, as he's given the Angels nothing from the very beginning. His offensive and defensive numbers are bad, but with regular playing time, I think he can be better. Not good, but vaguely ok. Of course, the Angels seem unlilkely to make this move, given management's long-standing problems with Guillen. When you're dreaming about a Gary Matthews Jr. trade and regretting these difficulties, you realize just what Dayton Moore has done to you.
Insane Idea #6- Guillen for Alfie Soriano. Soriano, incredibly, still has $90 million left on his massive contract, thanks to an $18 million dollar annual salary that runs through 2014. I think I'd rather have Vernon Wells.
Insane Idea #7- Guillen for Kosuke Fukudome. The time to make this deal was last winter, when Guillen may have still had some appeal and Fukudome's contract looked worse. Still, the Cubs would get out of the $26.5 million dollar obligation they have to Fukudome, in exchange for eating Guillen's $12 million. Fukudome's defense rated well in 2008, and was bad in 2009, so his overall value both seasons has been about the same. I wouldn't hesitate to make this deal, which also means the Cubs wouldn't do it. Then again, the Cubs have some massive contracts and (partially) selling off Fukudome could be appealing.
Insane Idea #8- Guillen for Dice K. My original idea was to look at swapping out JD Drew's contract, but its really not that bad, and I think the Boston FO values Drew's game, even if the general public doesn't. Dice-K is a different story, and the Red Sox owe him $28 million over the next three seasons. Guillen would never see the light of day in a Red Sox uniform, but the Red Sox would save $16 million in the process. The question is, would you want Dice-K for three years/$16 million?

I think you get the idea I'm proposing here: the Royals use their own Guillen salary dump to take on a bigger salary problem of somebody else's making. The key is finding a player who currently has a contract that is now seen is a milestone in his current situation, but is, in reality, not that bad of a deal

I'd make the Guillen for Silva, Guillen for Fukudome, Guillen for GMJ, Guillen for Rowand moves right now. The Guillen for Zito and Guillen for Wells deals, probably the craziest (outside of the Soriano one, which I'm keeping in just to let you know I'm not out of my mind), would be tough to make but have some appeal. The money's pretty close, but I think I'd rather take on Zito than Wells. Dice-K is essentially a reprise of the Silva situation, though he still holds some promise.

There are sound arguments why doing a trade like this is a bad idea. Why compound a problem? Why take on more bad salary? The simplest thing to do would just be to release Guillen. Given the long-term contracts already given to Meche, Soria, & Greinke, the Royals don't really have any building blocks at the moment that need to be locked up with any urgency, save perhaps Billy Butler. Our attitude towards payroll should always be the same: we should only care insomuch as any contract has an ability to affect other moves or grant unjustified playing time. To different extents, all these bad contracts might do so, though I'm tempted to say something about how keeping Dayton Moore off the free agent market might not be a bad thing.

So what do you think?

85-77, Closing Game Thoughts

Jeff — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 01:11:27 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

TELL US

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I'm going to be kind of quick about this, because, I gotta be honest, the high of pumping out your final content of the season is unlike any other and I'm eager to drink.

Maybe it's just because none of my teams have ever won a championship, but I honestly can't remember ever enjoying a season's end as much as I did today. I'm not going to try to summarize the gathering on the field after the game. There's no point. I couldn't. There's no way I could do justice to an impromptu celebration that actually made me tear up. You'll just have to see it for yourself, if you haven't already. But...man, for a team that didn't win anything, this one was something special. A year ago, Carlos Silva was the prime suspect when it came to an anonymous Mariner player threatening Ichiro. Today he carried him off the field on his shoulders. Mike Blowers couldn't stop talking about how he'd never seen a whole team mill around like this before. These Mariners were as close as any team that's ever shared a clubhouse, and knowing that they were all enjoying themselves was a big part of what made this season so fun.

Thanks, guys. You've been a treat.

Six strikeouts, one walk, a bunch of groundballs, a bunch of strikes, a bunch of swinging strikes, and a win. Felix Hernandez showed no ill effects from his 121-pitch outing last Tuesday and looked as kingly as ever from the start to the finish. He may not win the Cy Young, but this was a Cy Young-caliber season, and when he told Angie Mentink through laughter and tears after the game that he'd like to spend his whole career in Seattle...Z should just call him up right now while he's still feeling emotional. Also, when the whole team is out there walking a victory lap and thanking the fans, maybe you should wait a few minutes before pulling one of the players away from the rest for a pointless one-minute interview.

You always hear about the fan who caught a home run, or the fan who caught a foul ball. You never hear about the fan who caught a ground-rule double. I wonder what happens to that fan.

I know a lot of Mariners fans. Not one of them has ever gone to a baseball game with a rally fries sign. Which makes me wonder if there have ever been repeats. Has anyone won rally fries twice? Griffey tried his hand today but didn't luck out, which is just as well, because one more handful of fries and I don't know if Tui and Langerhans would've been able to lift him.

In the top of the first, it looked like Bill Hall dove for David Murphy's double and missed by 15 feet, but replays showed that he just fell down. Bill Hall, everybody. I urge you not to get too down on him, because he's very clearly been injured, but by the same token, Christ, Wak, why did you have to subject us to so much of this guy? What was there to be gained?

Adrian Beltre led off the game with a sparkling diving stop on a grounder to his left, and later pulled off another one of those spectacular off-balance barehands on a swinging bunt the way only he can do. Though Beltre went hitless and struck out in his final at bat, this final homestand saw him display every part of his skillset, and my only complaint about this whole afternoon is that the crowd didn't give him any recognition for everything he's done. I'm sorry, Adrian. I am deeply sorry that so many people just don't get you. I hope you end up somewhere that you can feel loved, because few people deserve it more than you.

Attendance for the home opener: 48,514. Attendance today: 32,260. That's up about 5,000 from a year ago and 2,000 from 2007, but, really? Either a lot of Seattle felt they'd shown Griffey enough love, or a lot of Seattle doesn't believe that he's going to retire.

It's fun to end the season with a win. We've done it four years in a row. Three of those years we've directly prevented the Rangers from the same satisfaction. Suck it, Texas.

Mike Blowers, paraphrased, on Hank Blalock: You have to be careful, because he can still turn on a good fastball. You hear this about a lot of guys, but I don't get what it means. Of course Blalock can still turn on a good fastball. If you can't hit a fastball, you can't be a position player in the Major Leagues. That's like saying, you have to keep on your toes around this hockey player, because he knows how to skate. If Hank Blalock couldn't hit a fastball, he'd be listening to announcers talk about guys who can hit a fastball on TV.

The second-to-last pitch of the game was a high fastball. Rob Johnson dropped it.

On Brandon Morrow And That Other Guy

Jeff — Sun, 16 Aug 2009 10:31:31 -0000

Brandon Morrow threw a complete game shutout the other night in Tacoma, walking one and striking out two. From the files of Larry Stone, we get this quote from Wakamatsu:

"It's similar to (Ryan) Rowland-Smith when we sent him down there. Every outing seems to get better and better. He's gaining confidence. We talked about bringing him up at some point, and he's proving he's pretty close.'

Wak, perhaps getting tired of his potentially cost-effective but frustrating current rotation, is understandably eager about and encouraged by Morrow's progress in AAA. Though his first three starts proved a bit of a struggle, both physically and mentally, he has since settled in, as shown by this table.

Starts	Strike%	IP	BB	K
First 3	58.6%	13.2	12	12
Last 3	65.8%	22	3	15

Morrow has recently found his command, and what's more is that he's found it while apparently throwing a lot of changeups. One of the biggest reasons he went back to the minors in the first place was to improve his secondary stuff, and according to Ryan Divish, the change that Morrow was throwing on Friday looked terrific, both in terms of movement and location. That's wonderful. There's no other way around it.

So Morrow does seem to be responding to the assignment as hoped. He knows what he's there to do, and lately he's been able to execute his gameplan with success. If he keeps this up, then as Wak suggested, it shouldn't be long before he's back pitching with the Mariners.

There are two things I'm a little concerned about, though. The first is this, straight from Divish's article:

[The change] was so effective, he only threw five breaking balls all night – one curveball and four sliders.

It's great that Morrow's been able to develop a better feel for his change. That's been a problem of his since he first arrived, and having that pitch will be critical towards his having success against left-handed hitters. But at the same time, he wasn't sent to Tacoma to work on his change; he was sent to Tacoma to work on his offspeed game, and so far we've heard a lot about his change, a little about his slider, and practically nothing about his curveball. Now, I'll happily admit that I'm biased, and have been ever since I saw this, but Morrow has at times flashed an unbelievable curve, and I want to see more of that thing. The team even talked about it specifically when they announced Morrow's demotion. But if there have been any big developments on that front, I've yet to hear about them.

I'm ecstatic that Morrow's changeup is seemingly showing real improvement. I am. That's the second-most important pitch in his arsenal. But I want to hear about his breaking balls as well. Though Morrow could probably succeed the way he is, it's only by featuring some dynamite breaking stuff that he'll be able to reach his ceiling. More sliders and curves, please.

The second thing that gave me a little pause is that maybe the team should let Morrow get comfortable in AAA before bringing him back, as opposed to bringing him back the instant it looks like he's put himself together. Improvements are delicate; muscles and mental processes need to be conditioned, and if you call Morrow up as soon as he does what you want, you run the risk of his reverting as soon as he gets into a little trouble. However, with only about three weeks left in Tacoma's season anyway, it's not like Morrow can really hang around that much longer. Unless the Rainiers make the playoffs, Morrow can only realistically make another four starts before the end of the minor league year, so this point doesn't lead us anywhere.

Barring something unforeseen, I'd expect to see Morrow come back pretty soon. Even if he does ride out the year with Tacoma, he should be in line to pick up some starts in September. I'll be excited to see if he's changed. That said, I'll also be crossing my fingers and hoping that Morrow doesn't forget everything he's learned, and that the coaching staff keeps a close eye on him and lets him know there's still more work to do. Morrow, from all indications, will be returning from AAA as a better starting pitcher. He will not, however, be returning as a finished product. Here's to there being still more steps forward.

Changing direction and going back to the original article, Stone also had this to say on another pitcher whose name you may recognize:

Carlos Silva had another bullpen session today, throwing 35 pitches. Wakamatsu said it went well. Silva will be stretched out to 45 pitches next time, followed by a simulated game. The goal is to get him some game action before the season is over.

Can you believe it's only been three months since Silva first disappeared? That feels like eons ago. It's a funny thing about time, though - after so many weeks have gone by, I'm almost ready to give Silva another chance. I wanted nothing to do with him anymore back when he was still throwing meaningful pitches, but since learning the extent of his injuries, I've pretty much forgiven him for his 2009 numbers, and the more I look at his stats from 2008, the more I think there may yet be some salvage potential. Not as a #2 or #3 starter or anything, but as a back-of-the-rotation guy or even as a long reliever, I feel like a healthy Silva may not be totally worthless.

If, of course, he can come back looking healthy, which is in no way guaranteed. But with the team on the hook for two more years and a lot more money, they're pretty much obligated to give Silva another opportunity or three to show what he can do. And I think it would be worth finding out if the consistent solid contact that plagued him in 2008 was sustainable or an anomaly. Over the course of his Minnesota career, Silva was an average-ish starting pitcher. If he can get back to looking more like that and less like the Mariner we all love to hate, then perhaps this team wouldn't have to bite the $25m bullet.

Our starting pitcher depth chart is really weird.

Thoughts On A Picture

Jeff — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 23:05:08 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

Browse more photos »

Much like Bigfoot, Chris Shelton is both easily identifiable and best viewed from a distance.

Chris Shelton was supposed to be in focus, but the camera resisted.

This is the picture Chris Shelton's mom has framed on the mantle.

Chris Shelton's better side is neither his left nor his right, but twenty paces.

When he isn't wearing a hat, Chris Shelton looks like someone put furry red handcuffs around a fish.

NOW YOU SEE, CARLOS. NOW YOU SEE WHAT IT'S LIKE

According to the penal definition, whereby a criminal becomes remorseful over learning that his actions had real consequences on real people, Carlos Silva has been rehabilitated.

Franklin Gutierrez has a look of smug but indifferent resignation, like he's sitting there thinking "well whatever I did my part." Which is probably true. Life's hard when you're that much better than pretty much everyone around you. Just ask Adrian Gonzalez, or Babe.

Notice that Silva has about six feet of empty bench space on either side of him.

First Half In Review: Mariners Go Driving

Jeff — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 00:56:45 -0000

The Mariner players' first half performances as things that can happen to you in the car.

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David Aardsma: somebody texts you a happy score update of a big game, the beginning of which you have to miss because your boss made you work late and you've had it with these stupid East Coast start times.

Wladimir Balentien: somebody texts you a sad score update of said game.

Miguel Batista: somebody texts you a score update of the game, but when you reach into your pocket to see if it's happy or sad, a police officer drives by, sees you, pulls you over, and writes you a ticket.

Erik Bedard: the air conditioner keeps shutting off every few minutes, and while it always manages to fix itself, you wish it would just turn on and stay on because it's a hundred degrees outside and you don't want to roll down the window.

Adrian Beltre: you use the same six-hour permit on your dashboard to park downtown four nights in a row. On the fifth night, you get caught and your car is towed.

Yuniesky Betancourt: the cop that pulled you over for texting while driving hands you the ticket then punches you in the face for being such a sad little fairy.

Russell Branyan: drive-in movie with the prom queen who didn't win because of her intellect. And the movie is Braveheart or something.

Ronny :(edeno: sometime during the night a cat climbs up and dies in your engine.

Endy Chavez: you clean your window, but the wiper fluid leaves some messy streaks and when you try to make those go away you run out of liquid.

Ken Griffey Jr: every time you turn on your vent or air conditioner, it introduces a little tolerable but annoying constant static to your iPod playback.

Franklin Gutierrez: you're driving down a desert freeway and you see a hitchhiker and even though you don't usually do things like this you decide to pull over and pick him up and the hitchhiker is Mitch Hedberg who's alive somehow and vows to repay you with hours of comedy.

Felix Hernandez: reaching for some change to pay for your drive-through coffee, you open up the container you keep under the seat and find $200 in cash that you got from an ATM, stored away, and forgot about.

Chris Jakubauskas: no matter how many times you adjust the rear-view mirror, it keeps slipping out of position and giving you a view of the back seat. But you just re-upholstered the back seat and it looks nice, so that's something.

Kenji Johjima: the switch to electronically move your seat forward and back is broken, so you have to move it yourself with that lever that's by the floor that got all sticky when you dropped that one soda.

Rob Johnson: the cupholder is too wide and too shallow, so every time you drive with a drink you have to lean forward a little and awkwardly position yourself so that you can hold it in place.

Shawn Kelley: you get into the car just in time to hear your favorite radio station kick off an hour block of BRMC.

Ryan Langerhans: during the hour block the DJ mentions that BRMC will be coming to town on Friday with Maximo Park as the opener.

Jose Lopez: leaving work to drive home, you notice that the gas light is on, but you decide, what the hell, I'm gonna go for it.

Mark Lowe: you're driving around with a friend and you mention to her "hey you know what song I heard this morning that's really annoying? Lights by Journey. I fucking hate that song" and your friend nods and twenty seconds later she starts to sing Lights by Journey.

Brandon Morrow: on a six-hour nighttime drive through the plains to meet up with friends at the cabin in the morning, the car's GPS breaks and you lose all sense of direction.

Garrett Olson: you drive home and nothing happens.

Carlos Silva: you're driving around a lonely stretch of highway when your car starts to smell funny, and it breaks down just as you're crossing the train tracks, and then the railroad barriers sound off and lower themselves, and then your doors jam and won't open, and OH MY GOD THERE'S A COBRA IN THE GLOVE COMPARTMENT

Ichiro Suzuki: you bring dinner home to have a pleasant in-house date night with your significant other and your car smells like fresh pizza and mozzarella sticks for a week.

Mike Sweeney: lost in an unfamiliar neighborhood, you pull over and get very bad directions from a very nice man.

Jason Vargas: In-n-Out accidentally gives you an extra double-double free of charge.

Jarrod Washburn: getting an oil change and buying new tires improves your car's performance by a couple mpg.

Sean White: already running late, you spill scalding hot coffee in your lap and drive all the way to work in blinding discomfort.

Assorted others: you're wasted but not fit to drive home so you recline the seat and fall asleep.

First Half In Review: Passing Out The Grades (Pitching Staff)

Jeff — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:10:25 -0000

Part two of a two-part series. Awwww yeahhhh

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David Aardsma: A-. Aarsdma's been quite a find, helping to somewhat stabilize a bullpen that was sent into disarray by Brandon Morrow. The strikeouts are way up, and he's only had a couple meltdowns through three months. My only concern is that he allows a ton of fly balls, many of them deep. He's definitely benefited from a big park and an awesome defense. He hasn't pitched as well as his ERA.

Miguel Batista: D. It's interesting to me that people don't realize how bad he still is. That 2008 must've left quite the impression.

Erik Bedard: B. Pitched well a lot of the time he was on the mound, but he didn't spent enough time on the mound, and there's not much consistency start-to-start. While it's great that his shoulder MRI came up clean, in some ways mysterious discomfort is worse than the stuff you can explain. I feel about Erik the way aviophobes feel about an overseas vacation.

Felix Hernandez: A. Felix may be a 23 year old All Star with a million-dollar contract and a billion-dollar arm, but I bet he doesn't have an emergency survival blanket in his pocket. You may think you're some kind of hotshot, but come wintertime, we'll see which one of us gets to enjoy complete thermal protection from rain and snow.

Chris Jakubauskas: D+. A few months ago I mentioned how much I liked Jakubauskas' curveball. Recently Harry Pavlidis did some work at Beyond The Box Score showing that Jakubauskas' curve has the lowest swinging strike rate of any curve in the Majors. I will never understand why anyone takes me seriously anymore.

Shawn Kelley: C. Kelley generally did good work on the mound, but he missed a lot of time and his most recent appearances show that he's still not all the way right. I both love Shawn Kelley and wish that he weren't probably the second-most dependable arm in the bullpen.

Mark Lowe: C. Too many balls and far too much contact for a guy with his stuff. USE YOUR CHANGEUP IT WILL HELP YOU AGAINST THOSE SINISTER LEFTIES

Brandon Morrow: C-. The best pitching prospect in our system has 127 games of Major League experience.

Garrett Olson: D+. I like having Olson around, and he has a little decent upside as a 4/5 starter, but his stuff gives him so little margin for error that it's basically impossible for me to feel comfortable in any situation where he's on the mound. I think that's the biggest reason why his bases loaded Houdini act the other day was so incredible. He doesn't miss many bats and he too often struggles to find the strike zone. Hurry up, RRS. And don't take this the wrong way, but you should hurry up too, Brandon.

Carlos Silva: F. Every day for the past three weeks I've thought about posting "Today's Fun Fact: Carlos Silva is still a Mariner" but I couldn't bring myself to do it, so now I'm doing it here. Only $25m left on the books after this season! Silva is living(?) proof that the big league DL system is a farce. Yeah, yeah, he has some wear and tear. That's not why he's sitting. He's sitting because oh my god why why would you ever let him pitch

Jason Vargas: C+. The more I see of him, the more I fall in love with Vargas' changeup. Between that and his ordinary but left-handed breaking ball, he's a starter who's not likely to run a big platoon split. Considering he's not even getting expensive yet, he was one hell of a throw-in, a guy I barely even noticed when we made the trade. I'm worried about how well he'll hold up down the stretch after not throwing in 2008, but to date, he's been quite good for what he is.

Jarrod Washburn: B-. Last year's litmus test of baseball intelligence was Raul Ibanez's defense. This year's is Jarrod Washburn's value as a pitcher. Washburn has taken a step forward - listen to me, everybody, Washburn has taken a step forward - but he's still not very good, and people who want to offer him arbitration or sign him to an extension are pants-on-arms crazy. He's been neat for three months, though. You know what else is neat? This emergency survival blanket. The package says it can be used as a signaling device for air support, and I work right next to Miramar, but for some reason when I took it for a field test the pilots got all uppity.

Sean White: C-. He's last year's Roy Corcoran, only with like 25% less of the only thing that made last year's Roy Corcoran any good. Speaking of percentages, this emergency survival blanket retains 90% of body heat. Great for survival, and great for taking warm pies to a picnic! White probably deserves a D or a D+, but he's flukily avoided home runs, so whatever. I wonder if people back home refer to him as the pride of Pullman. That would suck for Pullman.

Assorted Others: Irrelevant. When Roy Corcoran's on, he covers the ground with his sinker, but nothing covers the ground quite like this emergency survival blanket.