SB Nation - Glen Perkins

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Wednesday: Kouzmanoff, Perkins, Quinlan

Jesse — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:58:29 -0000

5:25 pm - This from ESPN's Jayson Stark: the Padres are making a hard push to move Kouzmanoff.

5:20 pm - HAPPY BIRTHDAY JON MARTHALER!

4:25 pm - Ummm....get this...Rich Harden? Yeah. He's signing with the Texas Rangers.

That's kind of a double-whammy for the Mariners, isn't it? Bit of a shock, for sure.

3:50 pm - More Olney: Rich Harden is on the verge of signing with...someone? No news on who. What are the chances that the mystery team is the Twins? Right now the rotation is probably guaranteed in four of five spots, but this would be a huge signing for Minnesota with big-time repurcussions.

What say you? Is it even possible? Rumor has it that the Mariners have been hot on his trail, but it could be someone else...

2:55 pm - Buster Olney tweets that the Twins and Padres "have had several discussions about Kevin Kouzmanoff".

2:45 pm - Kelsie Smith tweets that that the Twins' talks with Mark DeRosa's agent were "preliminary".

1:35 pm - A quiet afternoon for the Twins so far, but Ken Rosenthal tweets that LaTroy Hawkins will be pitching for the Brewers next year. Flame on, LaTroy!

10:50 am - Some highlights from LEN III's morning update, I suggest you pop over for a gander...

The Twins met with DeRosa's agent yesterday. Neal admits that DeRosa's been rumored to be asking for three years and $27 million, but also believes that a wave of non-tenders this weekend could drive down prices.
The agents for Pedro Feliz? They're getting the silent treatment. Can you just see Bill Smith, Rob Antony and company whistling and looking the other way as Feliz's agents walk by in the lobby?
Nothing is imminent with Quinlan.
This is surprising: the Twins tried to sign Boof to a one-year deal recently and were turned down. Looks like it was either one or the other, and we know how that story turns out.

9:40 am - Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes rounds up the speculation over who Minnesota's likely third base targets are. He mentions the usuals: Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Felipe Lopez. And then he adds another one...Juan Uribe. Out of all of those players, the last one I would want would be Uribe.

Adding Joe Crede and Kevin Kouzmanoff to that list, and now we finally have a solid group of players to speculate on. Out of those six, who do you prefer?

7:15 am - A couple things I've read this morning...

First, "talks with Joe Crede are progressing slowly" with the Twins. That's interesting. I would have thought the Twins might try something else before going back to Crede, but perhaps they're just trying to keep their foot in the door.

LEN III in his late-late-late edition last night also said the Twins have interest in Mark DeRosa. Now, this isn't necessarily a surprise, but it's the first we've heard his name tied to the Twins this week.

6:50 am - Wrapping up the last two days before we get into what could be a very interesting day 3...

1. Carl Pavano accepted arbitration. The number people seem to be throwing out there is $7 million, although if the Twins sign him for two years they might be able to get away with $5 million per.

2. The biggest tidbit to come out of Tuesday involved the Twins and Padres discussing a Glen Perkins/Kevin Kouzmanoff swap. San Diego rejected the one-for-one deal, as they're looking for more. The Padres also were linked by Kouz to the Giants yesterday, but once again were looking for more than San Francisco's initial offer.

3. Speaking of the Giants, it sounds like they're shying away from Dan Uggla. The Orioles remain interested, but what about the Twins?

4. The sad news from yesterday: Boof Bonser was designated for assignment. I'm confident he'll sign on with somebody, and be able to contribute in 2010.

5. The Twins are also rumored to be interested in utility man Robb Quinlan, probably as a fourth outfielder.

6. There were a lot of rumors yesterday evening about three teams (one being the Cubs) and a number of players (one being Milton Bradley). A report from earlier in the evening said one team was a "surprise" American League club. Would the Twins be interested in moving Delmon Young in order to fit Bradley? How would you feel about a Michael Cuddyer/Denard Span/Milton Bradley outfield?

7. As we continue to discuss the Winter Meetings at length on the main page, don't forget to vote for the next top prospect! Every day Roger (in conjunction with Seth Stohs) is asking you: who is the next best prospect? If you haven't yet, head over to the FanPosts and vote on yesterday's ballot, and be sure to make your voice heard this afternoon on the next one.

8. Last but certainly not least, be sure to check out our own Jon Marthaler on Seth's podcast!

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Tuesday: Pavano Accepts Arbitration

Jesse — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:33:42 -0000

9:00 pm - Random update from Jon: I'll be on Seth Stohs' podcast about 9:25pm Central time, presumably to make jokes about Nick Punto showing up at the Winter Meetings to dive headfirst into Marirott lobby plants.

3:05 pm - Over at LEN III's blog he chats about Bonser's departure, done in order to create room for Pavano on the 40-man roster. He also continues to speculate that Perkins could be traded, and brings up something that's been discussed here before but would be an immense surprise to me if it actally happened: the potential for Jesse Crain to be non-tendered.

2:35 - Aaron Gleeman re-Tweets from Lyle Spencer: Twins are interested in Robb Quinlan, and they aren't the only team to be so inclined.

2:20 pm - Peter Gammons is to leave ESPN following his assignment at the Winter Meetings. I love Gammons, so this makes me sad. Hopefully he continues to be a baseball correspondent in some form.

2:05 pm - As noted in the comments and courtesy of Kelsie Smith, the Twins have designated Boof Bonser for assignment. Au revoir, Boof. It's a shame it has to end this way, because I really do think he had something to offer this club. Unfortunately he's become a casualty of depth; it's a shame he couldn't be traded.

1:05 pm - A few notes on names of interest as the first big trade of the Winter Meetings nears completion (Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks)...

LaTroy Hawkins is hoping to get a deal done with the Astros. Hawkins turns 37 in a couple of weeks.
Sounds like the Orioles are still the leading candidate to land Dan Uggla.
As fischean pointed out, Ryan Church has been designated for assignment. Does anyone think the Twins would be interested in him as a fourth outfielder?
This three-way deal sounds like it'll be a pretty big deal...

Noon - From LEN III's mid-morning update...

The Padres want to speak to the Twins about Kevin Kouzmanoff. Remember when we were talking about him for about four straight days last year?
Sounds like the agent for Pedro Feliz wants to feel up out the Twins as well.
He believes Boof Bonser could be made available, and that the Padres (probably in relation to Kouz) might be interested in Glen Perkins.

11:15 am - Joe C. projects that if Pavano makes $7 million through arbitration (I still want to think that's high) then Minnesota's opening day payroll is already at $90 million--without making another move or extending Joe Mauer.

11:05 am - Kelsie Smith has an email from Pavano where he explains why he's staying with the Twins. I don't want to share the whole thing, because Kelsie deserves a look for having it in the first place, but this line struck me:

Or I accept arbitration and work out a deal with a team that is strong in character and talent, as I have already experienced, with a staff that is the one of the best I've had in baseball, and in a division where our rival last year is rumored to be unloading some of their top players with other teams in the start of a rebuilding phase.<.i>

10:40 am - Over at his blog, LEN III speculates that with Pavano accepting arbitration, Glen Perkins is expendable pitcher numero uno. Do you agree?

6:30 am - Rounding up some Twins-related news from yesterday before we kick off the second day of the Winter Meetings.

Carl Pavano was one of three potential free agents to accept arbitration, along with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano. And that's...pretty much it! Perchance day two will bring more news, but I guarantee it'll continue to bring more speculation...

Twins, Washburn Continue to Make Eyes At Each Other

Jesse — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:13:31 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Browse more photos »

Does anyone else feel like this one is inevitable?

The Twins had interest at the trade deadline this year. There were trade rumors involving the Twins and Washburn back in February. Back in August of '08, the Twins placed a waiver claim on Washburn and actually won it, but the Mariners in another moment of moron-mania screwed it up by asking Minnesota for one of their young starters instead of just taking the salary dump. This is a romance that's been brewing for an awful long time, and with the Twins seemingly on the verge of becoming a premier team in baseball with one or two more quality additions I have little doubt that Washburn will do whatever he can to don a Twins uniform.

Bill Smith has already dropped hints that the front office will be taking a look at the starting pitcher options on the free agent market. Washburn, apparently, fits the bill. He wants to be here, he qualifies as a veteran (he turned 35 in August), and he's been a lock for averaging six innings a start over the course of his career. Those are some pretty basic qualifications, but that doesn't mean they're bad ones.

As long as they're not the only ones.

I haven't made a secret of my reservations about having Washburn in a Twins uniform. Allow me to illustrate why using the simplicity of the numbers, in case you remain unconvinced.

Year	AGE	IP	GS	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9
2006	30	187.0	31	4.78	4.88	4.96	2.65
2007	31	193.2	32	4.77	4.81	5.30	3.11
2008	32	153.2	26	4.72	5.59	5.10	2.93
2009	33	176.0	28	4.58	5.21	5.11	2.51

To make sure we're on the same page: Washburn isn't getting any better as he gets older. Which should surprise absolutely nobody. In fact he's been on a steady decline for a couple of years, and his rebound in Seattle this summer (which I'll take a pit stop at in a moment) seems more like a blip on the radar than a sign of a late-career revival.

The best thing Washburn has going for him, apart from the fact that he should (note: should) cost less than some of the other free agent starters on the market this winter, would be his durability (at least 28 starts seven of the last nine years). But that should probably be a slight concern considering the problems with his knee at the end of the season, in spite of the arthroscopic surgery. It's just another red flag for a guy who:

Has averaged a strikeout-to-walk ratio of less than 2:1 over the course of his career.
Can lose control at any time; first of the strike zone, then of his emotions.
Is a flyball pitcher (bad for next year's outfield defense) who is going to give up more than his share of bombs.
Isn't likely to out-play Minnesota's current top starters (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, possibly Nick Blackburn)

Washburn had a bit of a revival in 2009. Before his injury in Detroit he made 20 starts for Seattle and averaged 6.7 innings a go. His fastball was legitimately a good pitch for the first time since 2002, and his slider was better than it ever had been. He was stranding 80% of his base runners and opponents were managing a meager .249 BABIP. None of that is sustainable.

Conclusions

Where this gets tricky for me is when I know the answer to this question: does Jarrod Washburn make next year's rotation better? Because as long as he's healthy, he probably does. On paper, giving him 200 innings instead of Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins just might actually yield better results. And in that sense, he could make the Twins better by stengthening the back end of the rotation. We all know how the Twins like their depth.

Would it be a bad signing? Depending on the contract, probably not. I'm just hoping for something more.

I'll leave you with a conversation I had with a friend over Facebook.

Jesse wishes the Twins would stop flirting with Jarrod Washburn. STOP IT.

Ben: Dodgers are flirting with Smotz... Have you ever been at a bar, and your friend is SOOOOO wasted drunk that he's chatting up the ugliest chick in the bar? Do you see them touch hands? Maybe even noses? You try to stop him but he's too drunk to believe you? At least the twins are chatting up a hottie. Who cares if they are let down, at least they're trying. All my teams gonna get is a hang over, crabs, and a rude awakening come tomorrow.

Jesse: yeah but at least your friend is going after a cougar. i mean, at least she USED to be hot, right? the twins are just going after the girl because she's there...she's only a hottie because the twins just drank all the way through happy hour.

Ben: Point taken.

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

View full size photo »

Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Ryan Ludwick

39 votes

Geovany Soto

61 votes

Chad Billingsley

116 votes

Ryan Doumit

17 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Sunday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: Carl Pavano, Glen Perkins, Don Kelly, Vikings/Twins Schedule Conflict

Jesse — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 12:43:46 -0000

Just a few notes on your favorite baseball team this morning, before Twins and Vikings games take you away to more social activities...

Carl Pavano's Splits	W-L	GS	IP	H/9	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA
Since Coming to the Twins	3-3	9	57.1	9.73	6.75	1.88	0.63	3.61
Since August 23	2-2	6	39.1	10.30	6.41	1.37	0.46	2.97
VS Detroit Tigers in 0009	4-0	5	37.1	8.20	5.30	0.24	0.00	1.69

If the Twins do manage to come back to take this division title away from the Tigers, there's no doubt that Carl Pavano will be regarded as one of the better, more key acquisitions that Bill Smith and the front office picked up down the stretch.
LEN III updated us on Glen Perkins last night, who apparently is off to see "noted specialist Dr. Lewis Yocum" for the second time this year. Just the latest chapter in an ongoing saga of a guy who wants to blame the Twins for his decision to not tell them about his own pain and discomfort. This still strikes me as a sad situation for both Perkins and the Twins.
Don Kelly had this to say about his critical blunder in the seventh inning yesterday afternoon: "Once it went through the lights, I lost it. There's really nothing else you can do. I mean, it's not like I took my eye off of if. People were saying they've seen many, many balls lost here. It's not the first. It's not going to be the last." Well Don, actually, it might be the last. There aren't that many games left, and contrary to popular belief not many guys actually biff it like you did, lights or not. So that should help you sleep better.
Finally, by now most of you have heard about the potential scheduling conflict between the Vikings and the Twins if Minnesota should finish the season in a dead heat with the Tigers. In spite of the fact that the lease on the Dome stipulates that a Vikings game will take precedent over any baseball event bar the World Series, MLB's senior VP for scheduling and club relations Katy Fenney insists the Twins game would take priority. Somehow that seems a little presumptious to me, not just because of the Vikings' legal right to play their game, but also because it's a Monday Night Football game that will be getting national coverage. An unplanned event like game 163 would have to work around a set schedule, it just seems like common sense to me. If the baseball gods want a Detroit v Minnesota nation-wide showdown, they'll probably be better served moving the game to Tuesday instead of trying to force the Vikings and the NFL out of their slot.

Sunday Morning Breakfast & Baseball: Glen Perkins' Grievance, September Callups, Garrett Jones

Jesse — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 12:18:59 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

5 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates' Garrett Jones connects for a solo home run off of Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cole Hamels in the first inning of a baseball game in Philadelphia, Saturday, July 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

Browse more photos »

A few tidbits as we head into day two of a three-day weekend...

In spite of the arm injury, which granted wasn't his fault, and in spite of his curious timing of medical requests, Glen Perkins (according to "people familiar with the situation") is actually considering filing a grievance with the players' union. On pace to qualify as a Super 2 in service time, if he's shut down for the rest of the season he'll have to wait for arbitration after 2010 instead of this season. It's the difference of a couple million dollars for next year, but provided he stayed healthy he'd be on track to cash in for a major payday in free agency that much sooner as well. Maybe if Glen were a bit more straight-forward in regards to how his arm feels, and maybe if he didn't request second opinions at inopportune and questionable times, then it's likely this wouldn't be an issue right now. Or at least there wouldn't be as much tension between between him and the Twins.
Another callup is on his way: Justin Huber should be ready to play by Tuesday when the Twins head to Canada to take on the Blue Jays. We'll meet him later, but here are the essentials: he's 27 (in his age-26 season) hitting .271/.350/.483 in 435 at-bats for the Red Wings this season, with 22 homers, 22 doubles, 84 strikeouts and 48 walks.
Francisco Liriano could return to the Twins by Thursday if his simulated game goes well, and he'll be utilized out of the bullpen. I'm interested to see how he responds in this role, a role he hasn't played since a pair of relief appearances for the Twins in late 2005. If he succeeds, does it change how the Twins see him contributing the team going forward, or is it irrelevant and we'll see him back in the rotation in 2010 no matter what happens?
Chuck Finder of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has a nice piece on former Twins and AAAA-hitter Garrett Jones. In 56 games for the Pirates, Jones is hitting .297/.364/.616 with 18 home runs and 14 doubles, 52 strikeouts and 23 walks. All that in just 242 plate appearances. His walk rates have gone from pedestrian to good, a career-best 10.1%. His isolated power is coming in at .316, which is outstanding for anybody. Can he keep it up? It doesn't seem likely, but it's good to see him get a shot to play everyday. Maybe he can make something of himself with the Pirates that he wasn't able to do with the Twins.

Twins Weekend Notes: Rich Harden, Brad Penny, September Callups

Jesse — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 00:20:36 -0000

Another weekend come and gone, and another series victory for the Twins. Let's hit some weekend highlights.

The Twins picked up Ron Mahay.
The Twins picked up Jon Rauch.
Joe Crede has finally hit the disabled list.
Yohan Pino was shipped to Cleveland to complete the Carl Pavano deal.
The Twins claimed Rich Harden. Lots of interesting stuff on that front over the weekend. Joe Christensen believes the Twins could pull something off without negotiating an extension, although "two people close to Harden" think a deal with Minnesota isn't likely. By now you probably know that Harden would be a type-A free agent after the season, has a string of arm injuries under his relatively young belt, and has pitched like a gang buster (whatever that means) since the All-Star Break.
In the same report, it sounds like Christensen essentially believes the Twins will exhaust options on the Harden front before committing money to Brad Penny. We've talked about that, too. Whatever happens, we should have a lot more answers by this time tomorrow night.
Tyler Mason at MLB.com says that Gardenhire's list of September callups will include Brian Buscher, Matt Tolbert and Anthony Swarzak. It also sounds like Gardy would like to see somebody called...let me check the name...Daniel Valencia?
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus believes the Twins will be using both Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins out of the 'pen when they return, which should bolster that side of the pitching staff even more than it already has been. It would of course mean a spot could be found in the rotation for a Harden or a Penny.
Patrick Reusse somehow believes that the Twins had veterans they could have traded in order to bring in some minor league talent, but that their .500 record in a sub-par division has robbed them of that luxury. I don't know who those veterans could have been this year, unless you want to count R.A. Dickey, Sean Henn, Luis Ayala or...really, I don't know. Mike Redmod? Michael Cuddyer? Dynomite idea. The Twins have made a series of moves that have improved this year's club without mortgaging anything of definite value in the future. I'm not sure what the problem is here.

See you tomorrow!

Twins Acquire Ron Mahay: Analysis & Fallout

Jesse — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:19:46 -0000

ESPN's Buster Olney has reported that the Twins have picked up southpaw reliever Ron Mahay from the Kansas City Royals.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ron Mahay	1-1	41	0	0	0	0	0	41.1	55	26	22	9	19	34	4.79	1.79

Those are Mahay's straight up stats from this season, and they're nothing to brag about. The 38-year old lefty is joining his eighth major league team, and I wouldn't blame you for thinking that's more because of his inability to become irreplaceable than because he's just that popular. Still, being able to hang around to this age as a bullpen specialist is a tribute of some kind.

Minnesota's front office does understand that their bullpen and rotation are in need of a little boost, and Randball's Stu has already covered the hot topic of last night when the Twins claimed Rich Harden, but even though the Twins are paying just a pro-rated portion of the major league minimum for one month of Mahay you have to ask the question: is this an improvement?

Jose Mijares and Brian Duensing are currently the only two lefties on the 25-man roster, with Mijares as the southpaw out of the 'pen. Adding the veteran Mahay gives the Twins an extra option from that side of the rubber, giving them another choice when working match-ups late in the game. Wait, did I just say "match-ups"?

Pitcher	AVG VS RHB	OPS VS RHB	AVG VS LHB	OPS VS LHB
Ron Mahay	.340	1.043	.278	.778
Joe Nathan	.180	.468	.161	.542
Matt Guerrier	.221	.644	.167	.441
Jose Mijares	.276	.756	.130	.439
Jesse Crain	.244	.646	.356	1.092
Bob Keppel	.282	.834	.304	.852
Jeff Manship	.500	1.038	.222	.541
Brian Duensing	.277	.809	.250	.629
Philip Humber	.429	.984	.385	1.004

Sure, there's some small sample size considerations here with guys like Humber, Manship...and even probably Keppel and Duensing, What it looks like we're getting in Mahay isn't necessarily a guy who is a definitive statistical improvement over half of this crew, but he is a guy who's seen...well, not "it all", but he's seen a lot. And we're getting a guy whose longevity may or may not mean something to the men who pitch in front of him and the guys who field behind him. Maybe the biggest positive we're getting from the acquisition of Mahay is the appearance to the players that yes, actually, the front office is trying to do something.

In a pennant race, given the choice between a 38-year old veteran and a non-hype rookie who's gotten shelled, who do you choose?

Fallout

Somebody is going to be removed from the 25-man roster, first of all. This could be Joe Crede, although this would put pressure on the Twins in regards to the post-season roster. It needs to be set by the end of the month, and considering this rule...

In cases of injury replacements on the post-season roster, only position players can be inserted for position players, and likewise pitchers for pitchers

...things could get difficult. Putting Crede on the DL and using Mahay to fill his roster spot means the Twins would need to make a move on another position player prior to September 1, unless they want to fake an injury to someone like Alexi Casilla...which I wouldn't advise they do. Not that they'd listen to me.

The most likely, and most logical, scenario sees the Twins sending Armando Gabino back to Rochester, having Mahay fill his spot, and keeping four starters on the roster; Thursday's off-day keeps everyone on rest, and with rosters expanding on Tuesday the Twins could have another starter ready to drop into the rotation.

Of course, none of this means that Crede shouldn't be sent to the disabled list.

More importantly than possibly all of that, is making room on the 40-man roster. Even with Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey not taking up space by being on the 60-day DL, all spots are filled. The Twins could shift either Francisco Liriano or Glen Perkins to the 60-day DL, or they could attempt to remove someone by passing them through waivers. Of course, this assumes the Twins would want to bring this person back. It's more than realistic to entertain the notion that someone like Humber could get his walking papers.

Conclusions

Picking up Mahay wasn't a bad move, but we really have to hope he either performs better for the Twins than he did the Royals, or is simply used more effectively than he was with the Royals. But what's fun is that the most intriguing part of this acquisition isn't the acquisition itself, it's what happens to get that acquisition on the field.

What are your thoughts?

Upcoming...fallout and conclusions...