SB Nation - Joe Nathan

Random Weekend Question: Favorite/Least Favorite Non-O

Stacey — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

I saw this question posed as a FanPost on another site and thought it was a pretty good idea for a slow, pre-Thanskgiving weekend. So who's your favorite baseball player that's not an Oriole? Least favorite non-O? Why?

Some of my favorites:

Matt Garza - He seems a little bit insane, and I feel like he's going to be crazy good.
Roy Halladay - I just love everything about him. I saw a rumor the Dodgers are trying to trade for him. That'd be nice because, you know.
Joe Nathan - Once when the Orioles were playing the Twins, Nathan wasn't available because his wife was having a baby. He got to the stadium just as the game was ending and while the Twins were shaking hands on the field he was out on the field in his street clothes handing out cigars and I thought it was the best.
Curtis Granderson - Probably my favorite non-Oriole. I love the way he plays CF, I love how involved he is in the community, I love that he writes a column on Yahoo sports, I love his tall socks, I love it all.

Some Least Favorites:

Ian Kinsler - I feel like he steals Brian Roberts' thunder. And his face bugs me.
Khalil Greene - Remember when people would talk periodically about the Orioles trading for this guy? I never understood it at all and I think started to resent him a little because of it. Why would the Orioles want this guy?
Aaron Rowand - He's not even good! He dives all over the place, so what?
Mark Teixeira - You know why.

Twins Pick Up Michael Cuddyer's 2011 Option

Jesse — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:41:57 -0000

And here I was, writing about whether or not the Twins should actually do it....

Of course my conclusion was an adament "YES, YES THE TWINS SHOULD PICK UP CUDDY'S 2011 OPTION". Clearly I have a nose for these things.

Cuddyer's 2011 option is worth $10.5 million, but with the buyout an even million in its own right the Twins are essentially paying our right fielder $9.5 million for his services two years from now. Of course we all know that, as one of the team's leaders, Cuddyer hit .276/.342/.520 this past summer with career highs in home runs and slugging percentage.

There will be questions about whether or not Cuddles is worth that much money as a 32-year old right fielder whose range leaves a bit to be desired, but as far as I'm concerned this was a quality decision, and one that was more or less unavoidable.

This decision raises Minnesota's 2011 committments to roughly $42.6 million dollars: Justin Morneau ($15 MM), Joe Nathan ($11.25 MM), Cuddyer ($10.5 MM) and Scott Baker ($5.00 MM), as well as a $500K buyout for Nick Punto and a $350K buyout for Jason Kubel.

Michael Cuddyer

#5 / First Base / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Mar 27, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Michael Cuddyer	153	588	93	162	34	7	32	94	54	118	6	1	.276	.342	.520

Poll

If you're Bill Smith, did you just pick up Cuddy's 2011 option?

Hell yeah!

360 votes

Nope!

41 votes

401 votes | Poll has closed

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

Fantasy Baseball: More dudes you need to love in 2010.

Ian, yo — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 20:25:47 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

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1. Jacoby Ellsbury- It's time to compare players!

Player A (2009): 606 ABs, 15 HR, 96 R, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .305, .816 OPS

Player B (2009): 624 ABs, 8 HR, 94 R, 60 RBI, 70 SB, .301, .770 OPS

Pretty close, eh? What if I told you that player A will likely be drafted as a top three outfielder in 2010, while player B could be drafted near the third round in drafts. I'm sure you know this but Player A was Carl Crawford and B was Jacoby Ellsbury. Crawford may give you a few more home runs and Ellsbury may get you more SBs, but I'm just not drafting Crawford in the first or second round when you can get someone at a thinner position and wait on Ellsbury.

2. Jayson Werth- Could be one of the most underrated players going into drafts next year. After putting up a season with 36 home runs, 98 runs, 99 RBIm, 20 SB and hitting .268, I could see Werth being drafted after the likes of Grady Sizemore (returning from elbow surgery,) Nick Markakis, Alfonso Soriano, Jason Bay, B.J. Upton and Josh Hamilton. Each one of those players has their downside, whether if be age, durability or just plain production and I'll be happy getting a four category stud in the later rounds than to gamble on one of the bigger "names" out there.

3. Brian Wilson- I understand how it may be tough to hold off on a closer when you have such elite talents like Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera, but there's one player who impresses me just as much as the elite closers and that guy is Brian Wilson. Over his first two seasons as the Giants full-time closer, Wilson has racked up 79 saves, 150 K, 55 BB, 122 hits in 134.2 innings. In 2008, Wilson had an ERA of 4.62 but his FIP suggested he'd pitched like a 3.93 guy and in 2009, his FIP suggested he'd pitched better than his 2.74 ERA with a 2.50. If your reliever puts up excellent K/9 and save totals, it makes it worth his higher possibility of putting up an ugly whip or ERA since one bad outing for a reliever can be offset by one decent start by another pitcher.

Poll

Which would you prefer to draft in 2010 taking ADP into account?

Jacoby Ellsbury

64 votes

Carl Crawford

38 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

Lunchtime Prowl: Sizemore's Ankle, Guillen for Pierre, the Second Base Dilemma, and Trading Closers

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:20:16 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

There may be no bigger question for the Detroit Tigers this offseason than whether or not to re-sign Placido Polanco.

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The Detroit Tigers Weblog talked to Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, the industry's resident injury expert, about Scott Sizemore's ankle injury. Carroll said Sizemore should be ready for Spring Training. However, he's never seen a second baseman with the sort of tendon injury that Sizemore suffered, so "it's tough to judge."

On his blog, the Detroit News' Tom Gage addresses speculation that the Tigers might pursue outfielder Juan Pierre this winter. But with Pierre owed $18.5 million on the remaining two years of his contract with the Dodgers, Gage thinks the only way Detroit could take on that kind of money is if they shipped a big salary of their own to L.A. For instance, the two years and $26 million they still owe Carlos Guillen.

Pierre batted .308/.365/.392 with 30 stolen bases in 42 attempts this season for the Dodgers.

At Mack Avenue Tigers, Kurt Mensching looks at the choices the Tigers face at second base next season. Do they let Placido Polanco go entirely or do they offer him arbitration? One key point Kurt brings up - and this is worth considering when reading Gage's article, as well - is that we don't know exactly what the Tigers' budget will be.

Speaking of second base, Fire Jim Leyland looks at Polanco's total value to the Tigers this season. How much did Polanco contribute to the Tigers with his bat? How much value did he provide with his glove? And how does Polanco compare with other second basemen in baseball?

Lynn Henning wonders how the Tigers can make their offense more potent next season. Are they mostly relegated to hoping most every batter on the roster just puts up better numbers in 2010? Henning says he expects Dave Dombrowski to add "a bat or two" this winter. But seriously, where would you put them?

How did the Tigers rate defensively this season? Lee Panas looks at each player's Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), and finds that Detroit was above-average in the field. Will that continue next season? Or might the Tigers have to sacrifice some defense for offense? (Lee also rates Detroit's offense in another post.)

If you missed it over the weekend (I posted it to the front page late on Friday), John Kmiecik filed his latest review for the 2009 Tigers. This time out, he takes a look at Carlos Guillen's season.

Over at The Daily Fungo, Mike McClary lists five reasons why he won't be watching the World Series. I think he could be missing out on a good one, though I generally agree with most of the reasons he listed. (Though I find the Phillies an intriguing team.)

Aaron Gleeman wonders if this might be the right time for the Minnesota Twins to consider trading Joe Nathan. (Just to clarify, he's not saying they should.) Nathan, by the way, just had surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow.

This might be a theme. Sam Mellinger thinks the Kansas City Royals should look into trading their closer, Joakim Soria. As he puts it, "What good is that fine scotch if you don't drink it?"

With the news that Tony La Russa might hire Mark McGwire as the St. Louis Cardinals' hitting coach, Lookout Landing imagines how a coaching session with McGwire might go.

The Dugout has a funny take on the story, too. It took me a while to figure out who the "SonOfJorEl" nickname was for. Maybe I need another cup of coffee.

I know some fans aren't thrilled that the World Series is an all-East Coast affair. But regardless of convenience, I think it's pretty cool that the Phillies traveled to New York by train, rolling into Penn Station last night. Maybe not so cool for commuters and Amtrak employees, though.

Morning Prowl: Granderson the Union Man, Missing Miguel Cabrera, and Creating Trade Rumors

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 10:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

How will Aubrey Huff's terribly disappointing stint with the Detroit Tigers affect his value on the free agent market this winter?

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Curtis Granderson was quoted in this ESPN.com piece by Amy K. Nelson about the $11 million compensation package Donald Fehr will receive when he steps down as head of the MLB Players Association. As a member of the players' union sub-committee, Granderson explained the thinking that went into the decision.

DesigNate Robertson posts its final grades for the 2009 Detroit Tigers. How do those marks compare to Rogo's midseason grades? Well, you have to click over and see.

MLB Trade Rumors wonders what the market for Aubrey Huff will be this offseason. No Tigers fans seemed to have commented in the discussion. Too soon? Or too painful, after Huff's .189/.265/.302 batting line in 117 plate appearances with Detroit.

This is a premium article at Baseball Prospectus, but you can read Kevin Goldstein's thoughts on Cale Iorg (and his hitting struggles) and former Tigers prospect Andrew Miller, both of whom are playing in the Arizona Fall League, before running into the paywall.

Speaking of Miller, Lynn Henning shares some thoughts from a colleague who covers the Florida Marlins. The general consensus in Miami is that the Tigers made out way better on that Miguel Cabrera deal.

Detroit Tigers Den (we're overdue in welcoming this new addition to the Tigersosphere) takes a month-by-month look at the Tigers' 2010 schedule. July and August look strong. But that Interleague Play home schedule in June is ugly.

Coming up with trade rumors is a popular pastime during the offseason, and there was a ridiculous one circulating from Bleacher Report over the weekend about Zack Greinke and the Brewers. That compelled Sam Mellinger to write about just how difficult it is to come up with a viable trade proposal, including a conversation he once had with a Royals executive on the subject.

We're behind on this (and this was mentioned in the comments of Tuesday's open thread), but The Sporting News named White Sox third baseman Gordon Beckham as its American League Rookie of the Year. Beckham batted .270/.347/.460 with 14 homers and 63 RBIs in 103 games (430 plate appearances) this season, after being called up to the majors in early June.

Anthony Castrovince looks at the four candidates to be the Cleveland Indians' next manager. That list does not include former Tiger Travis Fryman, who apparently wasn't invited back for a second interview. Former Tiger Torey Lovullo is among the four finalists, however.

One of the other finalists, Dodgers hitting coach Don Mattingly, was profiled by Nick Cafardo in last Sunday's Boston Globe. Mattingly could be in line to take over for Joe Torre in L.A. after next season.

For its other awards so far, TSN named Greinke as its AL Pitcher of the Year and the Angels' Mike Scioscia as the AL Manager of the Year.

As mentioned yesterday in the FanShots, Rudy Jaramillo reached agreement with the Chicago Cubs to become their hitting coach. And he got paid. Jaramillo received a three-year deal from the Cubs worth $2.42 million.

Over at Twinkie Town, Jon Marthaler wonders if Joe Nathan has lost something off his fastball, whether it was at the end of this season or over the last couple of seasons. (Tiger Town just said, "Yes, please.")

Closers Struggling This Postseason

Eric Stephen — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:14:16 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

At this exact moment, the Dodgers still had the lead last night.

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If there is one trend this postseason, it might be the blown save. Jonathan Broxton was the latest to fall victim to it, last night, as Jimmy Rollins smoked a two-run double to turn a potential tied series into a commanding 3-1 series lead. But Broxton is not alone this October. Closers have entered a playoff game in a save situation 16 times so far this offseason, and six times they have blown the lead, a stark contrast to last season:

Closers in Save Situations, 2008-2009 Playoffs
Year	Sv	BSv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	WHIP	BA/OBP/SLG
2008	15	3	22.2	14	5	5	7	32	1.99	2.40	0.926	.177/.241/.304
2009	10	6	15.0	19	14	12	13	8	7.20	6.62	2.133	.302/.429/.460

In addition to Broxton, the blown saves are spread out among six of the eight playoff teams. Alex Rodriguez is responsible for two of them, with game-tying home runs in separate games off Joe Nathan and Brian Fuentes. The Angels scored the first runs ever allowed in the postseason by Jonathan Papelbon while eliminating the Red Sox. The Dodgers benefited from Ryan Franklin's wildness (and Matt Holliday's gaffe) in the NLDS.

Mariano Rivera is one of the two playoff closers without a blown save this year, which doesn't come as much of a surprise since his plaque in Cooperstown should probably say "greatest closer ever" or something close to that. The only other unblemished closer this postseason has been Brad Lidge, who was easily the most blemished during the regular season, with his 11 blown saves and 7.21 ERA.

With the wound from last night's game still fresh, I don't know if this is comforting or not. But just know that Broxton isn't alone in struggling this offseason. Misery has plenty of company.

Joe Nathan's Not Losing His Fastball, Is He?

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:00:32 -0000

More photos » by Tom Olmscheid - AP

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During last week's great "Joe Nathan: Trade Him?" debate, a friend of mine (who shall remain nameless) made the following point: "His fastball seems to have lost some hop (and not just in the final month of the season)."

Apart from all of the other arguments, this one I had to explore for myself - and thanks to the highly useful PitchFX tool at BrooksBaseball.Net and the PitchFX pages at FanGraphs.com, I had the tools I needed.

Let us deconstruct the above argument, and tackle some possibilities one by one.

Prop. #1: Joe Nathan's fastball has lost some hop.
Veracity: Probable.

First of all, let's be clear: the PitchFX data available only extends back to midway through the 2007 season. We can't use this to prove whether Nathan has dropped velocity since 2004, when he started closing games for Minnesota.

However, it's probable that he's lost some zip since then; after all, he was 29 back then. He'll be 35 next month. Of course he's not throwing as hard as he once did. Not everybody's Nolan Ryan, and can keep throwing hard until they're 68 years old.

That said, if you wanted to use that argument, then you should have used it two years ago.

Prop #2: Joe Nathan has RECENTLY lost some zip on the fastball.
Veracity: Questionable.

Looking back over 2008 and 2009, the numbers seem to speak pretty clearly. Nathan's average fastball in 2008 was 93.6 mph. In 2009, his average fastball was... 93.6 mph. (In the limited data from 2007, he was up around 95). Take a look at the following charts. (Update: Just to be clear, these graphs are from the super-wonderful PitchFX pages at FanGraphs.com. I trust their data and so should you.)

The first is a graph of his averages, for all of the data we have for the past three years:

The second shows his velocity ranges for his fastball, in the same time period:

I'm just eyeballing these graphs, so I can't tell you that these prove anything with any statistical certainty. But 2008 and 2009 look a lot alike, and I have a feeling that if you lined them all up in descending order, there'd be a lot of '08 appearances and '09 appearances intermingled. If anything, his fastball has been the same for two years.

So let's examine one more possible argument, about September and October this year.

Prop. #3: Joe Nathan lost something off his fastball in September.
Veracity: Doubtful.

I reviewed his average and max fastball speeds for all of his appearances in the regular season in September and October (a stretch in which he saved 12 of 13 games, had a 3.38 ERA, and allowed opponents to hit .158, by the way.)

In his 16 appearances, his average fastball was 93+ mph in 13 of them. Two of the other three came on 9/15 and 9/16, when he was pitching for the third and fourth day in a row.
In ten of those appearances, he threw at least one fastball faster than 94.
In two of those appearances, he touched 95 on the radar gun.

Ultimately, his fastball was more or less the same for the entire month - right in the 93-94 range consistently, day after day.

My conclusion

I think it's simple to sum up: sure, Nathan is older than he once was. He may not be able to throw as hard as he could at age 29. But over the past two years, he's maintained a remarkably consistent velocity on his fastball, and at 93-94 mph, he still throws plenty hard. I don't think a drop in velocity can be used as an argument for trading him.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Closer Dynasty/Keeper Rankings

Ian, yo — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 03:05:47 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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1. Mariano Rivera- Another year older, another year of a sub 2.00 ERA. I do think Mo's age will catch up with him one day, whether it be in the form of injury or inefective-itis, but I don't think that will be 2010. I think Rivera will have another season of 35+ saves and excellent peripherals.

2. Joe Nathan- Had a career high 47 saves and while he had the highest ERA in 4 years, a 2.10, isn't really all that bad. Look for an ERA around 2 with 35+ saves again and a K/9 possibly hovering over 10.

3. Jonathan Papelbon- Numbers close to career averages except a BB/9 of over 3, which is the highest since he'd been put in the closer role. Boston fans seem fed up with him and the Sox have a closer in waiting in Daniel Bard. Don't be surprised to hear Papelbon's name floated in trade rumors.

4. Joakim Soria- Posted the highest K/9 in his career and saved 30 games while missing time in 2009. Expect another season with peripherals hovering in the same area but don't be surprised to see another year with a low save total.

5. David Aardsma- Career highs across the board, including innings pitched. This will be the first time Aardsma has played back to back seasons in the same city, which could help his cause extremely and maybe provide the consistency needed.

6. Brian Fuentes- Had the most saves in baseball in 2009, but had a large drop in K/9 and a spike in whip (1.40 with a career of 1.26) He may get you a high total, but it may not be pretty.

7. Andrew Bailey- Logged 83.1 innings as a rookie so you can definitely see a regression. A regression could be a jump in whip and ERA, but expect the K's to be there.

8. J.P. Howell/Other- The closer situation in Tampa is a bit sketchy, but I don't feel confident with any of the closers left on this list, so Howell gets this by default. Keep in mind that the Rays could go out and get a closer in free agency or trade (hint: Billy Wagner.) If they do, that person would likely be number eight still.

9. Frank Francisco- Spent many weeks on the DL in the 2009 season, and had an ERA floating on the high end of the 3's. Possibly due to the injuries. I'm fine taking a closer on a solid offensive team this late.

10. Bobby Jenks/Matt Thornton/Other- Whispers have been spreading about Kenny Williams sending a letter mentioning his veterans being available in trades and Jenks was fairly disappointing in 2009. Thornton has the stuff to be a nasty closer and 2010 could be the season it happens.

What Did We Learn From The 2009 Division Series?

Al — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 14:15:19 -0000

Parts of Wrigley Field are being resodded this month. Photo taken at 8:45 am, 10/13/09, from Wrigley webcam

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Baseball's division series ended with a whimper, although many of the games were close and interesting; only one series, the Phillies and Rockies, ended without a sweep. The last season in which there were no sweeps in the first playoff round was 2003; this is the second time in the last three years where there were three sweeps in the four series.

Lesson learned (are you listening, Jim Hendry and Lou Piniella?): even a 90+ win team during the regular season can go through three games where they look bad and don't get breaks and have some bad luck and lose three games in a row. The Dodgers, for example, had a five-game losing streak not long before the regular season ended -- all to teams with sub-.500 records (Pirates and Padres). Yet, they righted their ship and beat the Cardinals three straight. As Cubs fans we hope the Cardinals overreact the way the Cubs did after losing last year's NLDS.

There were some monumentally bad umpiring decisions in the postseason so far; we cannot know whether these bad decisions cost teams games (although in the case of the two bad calls on the same play made in the wee hours of Tuesday in game 3 of the Phillies/Rockies series, it might have), but there is no doubt that the time has come to expand the use of replay review in baseball.

Lesson learned: give each team two "red flag" replay review requests per game. This would include the HR replays now permitted (but exclude ball and strike calls -- everything else would be reviewable). It would involve strategy on the part of the managers; do you use your replay on a trapped/caught fly ball issue in the first inning of a scoreless game, or do you save it for later? Doing this would eliminate virtually all of the yelling, screaming manager/umpire arguments, reduce ejections and suspensions, and get nearly every close call like this right. To speed up review, add a fifth umpire to each crew; he would sit in the press box and review calls as needed. He would also serve as the official scorer, taking this job away from sportswriters (who shouldn't have it in the first place).

Pitching is king in the postseason: no team scored more than seven runs in any of the 13 games so far, and six of the games were decided by one run. And, as Mitch Williams pointed out on the MLB Network last night, one of the reasons baseball is a great game is "youneverknow": three lights-out closers during the regular season, Huston Street, Jonathan Papelbon and Joe Nathan, got lit up during key postseason innings, and Brad Lidge, who had one of the worst years for a closer for a playoff team in recent memory (if not ever), nailed down two wins for the Phillies.

Lesson learned: well, maybe there isn't one here, except that luck can be involved in any of these games, and of course, in a five-game series each game's result is more magnified. Street and Papelbon blew two saves each this year and Nathan blew five. Over the course of a long season, that doesn't ultimately matter if you save enough of your other opportunities (Kevin Gregg, for example, didn't). But in a short series, one blown save or two can be fatal. It doesn't mean that Papelbon, Street or Nathan can't be or won't be trusted next year -- or that Lidge couldn't suddenly BE trusted after having a miserable regular season and being yanked from the closer job.

TBS did a somewhat better job visually, covering this year's division series, than they did last year. (That wasn't hard, as they were awful last year.) I liked the strike-zone box, left in the corner of the screen, showing the pitch location for each at-bat, but only from the CF camera, not interfering with other shots. They still have a long way to go -- and with their limited number of sponsors, the constant repetition of advertising got unbelievably annoying after a while.

Lesson learned: Brian Anderson, the Brewers' main PBP announcer, was the best of the four. One thing he did that every other PBP man on a short series should do: he made excited calls for good plays for both teams. There was no way to tell whether or whom he was rooting for -- the mark of a good national announcer. Anderson should get more national attention. And Dick Stockton should be sent out to pasture, already.

Finally, I've had enough with the champagne celebrations for winning the division series. Doing that if you win a postseason spot during the regular season: fine. That's celebrating a full year of accomplishment. Doing it if you win the league championship series: fine. That's celebrating winning your league pennant. Doing it for winning the World Series: fine -- obviously. But doing it for winning a division series? What have you done, actually? Win three of five games to move to the next round. Stow the champagne for that, please.

Enjoy the break before the league championship series begin. I've put a poll on the right sidebar asking who you think will win the World Series out of the four remaining teams.