SB Nation - Kevin Slowey

Twins, Washburn Continue to Make Eyes At Each Other

Jesse — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:13:31 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Does anyone else feel like this one is inevitable?

The Twins had interest at the trade deadline this year. There were trade rumors involving the Twins and Washburn back in February. Back in August of '08, the Twins placed a waiver claim on Washburn and actually won it, but the Mariners in another moment of moron-mania screwed it up by asking Minnesota for one of their young starters instead of just taking the salary dump. This is a romance that's been brewing for an awful long time, and with the Twins seemingly on the verge of becoming a premier team in baseball with one or two more quality additions I have little doubt that Washburn will do whatever he can to don a Twins uniform.

Bill Smith has already dropped hints that the front office will be taking a look at the starting pitcher options on the free agent market. Washburn, apparently, fits the bill. He wants to be here, he qualifies as a veteran (he turned 35 in August), and he's been a lock for averaging six innings a start over the course of his career. Those are some pretty basic qualifications, but that doesn't mean they're bad ones.

As long as they're not the only ones.

I haven't made a secret of my reservations about having Washburn in a Twins uniform. Allow me to illustrate why using the simplicity of the numbers, in case you remain unconvinced.

Year	AGE	IP	GS	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9
2006	30	187.0	31	4.78	4.88	4.96	2.65
2007	31	193.2	32	4.77	4.81	5.30	3.11
2008	32	153.2	26	4.72	5.59	5.10	2.93
2009	33	176.0	28	4.58	5.21	5.11	2.51

To make sure we're on the same page: Washburn isn't getting any better as he gets older. Which should surprise absolutely nobody. In fact he's been on a steady decline for a couple of years, and his rebound in Seattle this summer (which I'll take a pit stop at in a moment) seems more like a blip on the radar than a sign of a late-career revival.

The best thing Washburn has going for him, apart from the fact that he should (note: should) cost less than some of the other free agent starters on the market this winter, would be his durability (at least 28 starts seven of the last nine years). But that should probably be a slight concern considering the problems with his knee at the end of the season, in spite of the arthroscopic surgery. It's just another red flag for a guy who:

Has averaged a strikeout-to-walk ratio of less than 2:1 over the course of his career.
Can lose control at any time; first of the strike zone, then of his emotions.
Is a flyball pitcher (bad for next year's outfield defense) who is going to give up more than his share of bombs.
Isn't likely to out-play Minnesota's current top starters (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, possibly Nick Blackburn)

Washburn had a bit of a revival in 2009. Before his injury in Detroit he made 20 starts for Seattle and averaged 6.7 innings a go. His fastball was legitimately a good pitch for the first time since 2002, and his slider was better than it ever had been. He was stranding 80% of his base runners and opponents were managing a meager .249 BABIP. None of that is sustainable.

Conclusions

Where this gets tricky for me is when I know the answer to this question: does Jarrod Washburn make next year's rotation better? Because as long as he's healthy, he probably does. On paper, giving him 200 innings instead of Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins just might actually yield better results. And in that sense, he could make the Twins better by stengthening the back end of the rotation. We all know how the Twins like their depth.

Would it be a bad signing? Depending on the contract, probably not. I'm just hoping for something more.

I'll leave you with a conversation I had with a friend over Facebook.

Jesse wishes the Twins would stop flirting with Jarrod Washburn. STOP IT.

Ben: Dodgers are flirting with Smotz... Have you ever been at a bar, and your friend is SOOOOO wasted drunk that he's chatting up the ugliest chick in the bar? Do you see them touch hands? Maybe even noses? You try to stop him but he's too drunk to believe you? At least the twins are chatting up a hottie. Who cares if they are let down, at least they're trying. All my teams gonna get is a hang over, crabs, and a rude awakening come tomorrow.

Jesse: yeah but at least your friend is going after a cougar. i mean, at least she USED to be hot, right? the twins are just going after the girl because she's there...she's only a hottie because the twins just drank all the way through happy hour.

Ben: Point taken.

GM Meetings Day 2: Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:34:55 -0000

Check back periodically for updates...

4:00 pm: Afternoon updates from Joe C.

Congrats to Joe Mauer, who wins his second Gold Glove. Well deserved.
Apparently the GM's are expected to discuss intant replay? I had no idea. At any rate it hasn't been discussed yet.
Bonser, Neshek and Slowey have been reinstated from the 60-day DL.
Joe promises more tonight.

12:45 pm: Some news from around the league

It sounds like Jason Varitek will pick up his part of the option to stay with the Red Sox, which will be a favor to teams across the American League if he continues to hit like he has the last two seasons. Which he probably will. In related news, Tim Wakefield is never going to stop pitching. NEVER.
If the Twins want to put together a package for Roy Halladay to really make a run with an Ace in hand for 2010, it will have to be a package of "quality over quantity". Sorry, Cmath.
Lunch time trade question: would you trade Jesse Crain and Delmon Young to the Royals for David DeJesus? Is it a realistic scenario?

9:30 am: Catching up on the highlights from yesterday

• Carl Pavano wouldn’t mind sticking with the Twins as long as the money is right. Quotes from his agent, Tom O’Connell, imply that Pavano won’t settle for another contract asking for his client to re-establish himself. If he’d still be willing to take an incentive-laden contract at a reasonable price (say something like one year, $5 million with $500K for reaching 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings) with an option for a second year, I’d do that. He’s a Type-B free agent, but I’m not sure he’d make more than that taking the arbitration route (which the Twins are sure to offer).
• Twins General Manager Bill Smith has mentioned there will be interest in free agent starting pitchers during the off-season. I have to believe that only three spots (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey) are locked down.
• It sounds like Ron Gardenhire wouldn’t mind bringin back Orlando Cabrera as the team’s second baseman next season, but it seems highly unlikely the front office would follow through on that.
• The Orioles claimed Armando Gabino off waivers.
• Justin Huber cleared waivers, paving the way for his possible return to Rochester (or the Twins) in 2010.
• Juan Morillo has been added to the 40-man roster, bringing the current tally to 33 (not including 60-day DL guys Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey, or impending free agents Ron Mahay, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede, Pavano and Cabrera).
• Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors has posted his yearly series where he guesses where the top 50 free agents will end up. He thinks Adrian Beltre (number nine on his list) will end up in Minnesota.
• Before the Twins snapped up J.J. Hardy, a number of other teams had been in contact with the Brewers, including the Red Sox, Reds and Blue Jays.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Twins Acquire Ron Mahay: Analysis & Fallout

Jesse — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:19:46 -0000

ESPN's Buster Olney has reported that the Twins have picked up southpaw reliever Ron Mahay from the Kansas City Royals.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ron Mahay	1-1	41	0	0	0	0	0	41.1	55	26	22	9	19	34	4.79	1.79

Those are Mahay's straight up stats from this season, and they're nothing to brag about. The 38-year old lefty is joining his eighth major league team, and I wouldn't blame you for thinking that's more because of his inability to become irreplaceable than because he's just that popular. Still, being able to hang around to this age as a bullpen specialist is a tribute of some kind.

Minnesota's front office does understand that their bullpen and rotation are in need of a little boost, and Randball's Stu has already covered the hot topic of last night when the Twins claimed Rich Harden, but even though the Twins are paying just a pro-rated portion of the major league minimum for one month of Mahay you have to ask the question: is this an improvement?

Jose Mijares and Brian Duensing are currently the only two lefties on the 25-man roster, with Mijares as the southpaw out of the 'pen. Adding the veteran Mahay gives the Twins an extra option from that side of the rubber, giving them another choice when working match-ups late in the game. Wait, did I just say "match-ups"?

Pitcher	AVG VS RHB	OPS VS RHB	AVG VS LHB	OPS VS LHB
Ron Mahay	.340	1.043	.278	.778
Joe Nathan	.180	.468	.161	.542
Matt Guerrier	.221	.644	.167	.441
Jose Mijares	.276	.756	.130	.439
Jesse Crain	.244	.646	.356	1.092
Bob Keppel	.282	.834	.304	.852
Jeff Manship	.500	1.038	.222	.541
Brian Duensing	.277	.809	.250	.629
Philip Humber	.429	.984	.385	1.004

Sure, there's some small sample size considerations here with guys like Humber, Manship...and even probably Keppel and Duensing, What it looks like we're getting in Mahay isn't necessarily a guy who is a definitive statistical improvement over half of this crew, but he is a guy who's seen...well, not "it all", but he's seen a lot. And we're getting a guy whose longevity may or may not mean something to the men who pitch in front of him and the guys who field behind him. Maybe the biggest positive we're getting from the acquisition of Mahay is the appearance to the players that yes, actually, the front office is trying to do something.

In a pennant race, given the choice between a 38-year old veteran and a non-hype rookie who's gotten shelled, who do you choose?

Fallout

Somebody is going to be removed from the 25-man roster, first of all. This could be Joe Crede, although this would put pressure on the Twins in regards to the post-season roster. It needs to be set by the end of the month, and considering this rule...

In cases of injury replacements on the post-season roster, only position players can be inserted for position players, and likewise pitchers for pitchers

...things could get difficult. Putting Crede on the DL and using Mahay to fill his roster spot means the Twins would need to make a move on another position player prior to September 1, unless they want to fake an injury to someone like Alexi Casilla...which I wouldn't advise they do. Not that they'd listen to me.

The most likely, and most logical, scenario sees the Twins sending Armando Gabino back to Rochester, having Mahay fill his spot, and keeping four starters on the roster; Thursday's off-day keeps everyone on rest, and with rosters expanding on Tuesday the Twins could have another starter ready to drop into the rotation.

Of course, none of this means that Crede shouldn't be sent to the disabled list.

More importantly than possibly all of that, is making room on the 40-man roster. Even with Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey not taking up space by being on the 60-day DL, all spots are filled. The Twins could shift either Francisco Liriano or Glen Perkins to the 60-day DL, or they could attempt to remove someone by passing them through waivers. Of course, this assumes the Twins would want to bring this person back. It's more than realistic to entertain the notion that someone like Humber could get his walking papers.

Conclusions

Picking up Mahay wasn't a bad move, but we really have to hope he either performs better for the Twins than he did the Royals, or is simply used more effectively than he was with the Royals. But what's fun is that the most intriguing part of this acquisition isn't the acquisition itself, it's what happens to get that acquisition on the field.

What are your thoughts?

Upcoming...fallout and conclusions...

On the mound, everybody done gone backwards

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 10 Aug 2009 11:00:14 -0000

The Twins entered the season with a young, somewhat inexperienced - but potentially very good - starting rotation. The hope seemed to be that those five pitchers - Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Glen Perkins - would mature and turn into a staff to be reckoned with (and all for cheap, too!)

As Carl Pavano could tell you, things haven't exactly gone according to plan.

A few ERA and Fielding Independent Pitching numbers, just for comparison:

	2008		2009
	ERA	FIP	ERA	FIP
Scott Baker	3.45	3.85	4.59	4.20
Francisco Liriano	3.91	3.93	5.63	4.90
Nick Blackburn	4.05	4.44	3.79	4.28
Kevin Slowey	3.99	3.98	4.86	4.32
Glen Perkins	4.41	5.24	5.89	4.76

What those numbers indicate: Blackburn's improved slightly, Baker and Slowey have gone backwards, Perkins was never very good to begin with, and Liriano's so far backwards that he can't even be said to still be in the race.

That young, cheap, good staff? Well, two out of three isn't bad.

Unfortunately, the third is what the Twins really need this year - and with two-thirds of the season gone, it would take a major turnaround to get it.

Does Carl Pavano Make the Twins Rotation Better?

Jesse — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 12:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Browse more photos »

Actually, yes. Yes, he does.

When the Twins claimed Carl Pavano off waivers this week, it set in motion events that would lead to Minnesota's biggest mid-season trade since Shannon Stewart in July of 2003. Under most circumstances an inter-division trade would seem odd, but considering Cleveland's failure of a season and their sellers aspect, they really have nothing to lose by dealing Pavano to a division rival.

There's really no question that the Twins needed some help in the starting rotation. Injuries and slow starts have been the two biggest factors affecting how effectve that rotation has been, so the addition of the 33-year old Pavano (at presumably the closest thing you can get to zero cost while still giving something up) is a step in the right direction.

Of course there are a few stock reactions of the negative variety on a move like this...

Pavano isn't a front-line starter
He hasn't been healthy for a full season since 2004 (just 45.2 MLB innings from 2006 - 2008)
That 5.37 ERA is just bad

All of those things are true, but none of them give an accurate clue as to whether he upgrades an ailing rotation. Let's see how he stacks up against our boys so far this year.

Name	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	Zone %	First Strike %	HR:FB	FIP
Carl Pavano	21	125.2	6.30	1.65	1.38	50.6	66.5	12.8	4.26
Scott Baker	21	127.1	7.49	1.91	1.17	53.4	61.0	11.6	4.11
Nick Blackburn	22	145	3.72	1.99	1.37	52.2	60.0	7.2	4.18
Francisco Liriano	21	118.1	8.06	4.18	1.54	45.0	54.5	12.7	4.78
Glen Perkins	17	95.1	4.25	2.08	1.48	51.9	64.6	9.8	4.63
Kevin Slowey	16	90.2	7.44	1.49	1.41	56.5	68.5	10.7	4.23
Anthony Swarzak	9	48.2	4.99	3.14	1.42	52.4	56.9	5.8	4.20

With Slowey out for the season, his leading numbers in BB/9, strike zone percentage and first strike percentage no longer qualify as "best in the rotation". Perkins, who's been moved to the bullpen anyway with the arrival of Pavano, wasn't the leader in any category.

Understanding the season that Blackburn has put together so far and knowing the direction that Baker's season has been heading, it's not unfair to say that Pavano has just become Minnesota's third best starter, if not their second. And considering that Bill Smith and the front office managed to pick him up for next to nothing, respect must be paid. The front office made a play and took a chance on the waiver wire, and it just might help.

2003 was a long time ago, but that charmed Marlins club was a good one. Pavano was a big part of their post-season success, appearing in eight different games while starting twice; he logged 19.1 innings and compiled a 1.40 ERA. That's the only time he's been to the playoffs, not having pitched for the Yankees in October during his tenure in New York. But if the Twins do somehow manage to pull off a fantastic final eight weeks, I'd have no problem with this guy being part of our post-season rotation.

August is a fun time, because sneakly little deals like this can still happen. The players and teams involved aren't always a surprise, but how they're matched can be if only because news doesn't flow as freely as it does in July.

We'll get to that waiver deadline primer tomorrow night.

Reassessment: What Is the Twins Biggest Need?

Jesse — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 23:00:10 -0000

With less than 24 hours to the trade deadline, it's a good time to see if you think the organization's priorities have changed.

Last week we asked this same question, with middle infield taking 45 percent of the vote. Bullpen followed with 30, rotation 18 and bench depth just four percent.

Middle Infield - Still no moves outside of Mark Grudzielanek, although both Orlando Cabrera and Marco Scutaro have been tied to the Twins.

Bullpen - Joe Nathan, Jose Mijares and Matt Guerrier and fine, and Jesse Crain has been better his last couple times out. Bobby Keppel has been a bit more vulnerable and R.A. Dickey's fastball is simply R.A. Dickey's fastball. Is this still one of Minnesota's biggest red flags?

Rotation - Kevin Slowey is down for the season, but Anthony Swarzak has been reliable in his absence so far. Scott Baker's season is starting to come under control, and outside of his last couple of starts Nick Blackburn has been a god-send. But if you can get a starter, whether it's just a reliable innings eater with whom you know what you're getting, or something a bit better, is this the move you make?

Bench Depth - When all of your middle infielders are hitting around the Mendoza line, you can't hide them on the bench. They have to start, and they hurt your offensive production. Even if it's just a hitter you can keep on the bench to step in and take a couple of plate appearances a week away from these guys later in the game, it'd be an asset this team doesn't have and one this team could use.

Poll

One more time: What's the Twins' biggest need?

Middle Infield

184 votes

Bullpen

67 votes

Rotation

120 votes

Bench Depth

9 votes

380 votes | Poll has closed

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 14:17:37 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Jody Gerut is tagged out at home by catcher Josh Bard during the sixth inning Monday. We can't see the plate in the picture, but judging by where Gerut is reaching and the location of the tag, it looks like it's possible he should have been safe. A safe call, of course, would have turned a 14-6 blowout into a 14-7 nailbiter.

Browse more photos »

I don't have an opening joke today. I'm not really in the mood for one.

It was another Tough Day for Suppan yesterday, on a day where he walked the tightrope for four innings, walked in a run and gave up a grand slam in the fifth, then was left in to allow four more runs in the sixth. Ken Macha sounded a lot like Ned Yost while defending his decision to leave Suppan in after the game, citing a tired bullpen but also mentioning that Suppan was "one pitch away" from getting out of the fifth. Opportunities to provide that "one pitch" came several times, but Suppan walked in a run and grooved a fastball instead.

The "tired bullpen" argument only works for so long here. Six members of the seven man Brewer bullpen have been overworked of late, including R.J. Swindle, who was called upon for two innings last night, just one day removed from pitching two innings for Nashville on Saturday. One arm, though, is hardly seeing any work at all: Trevor Hoffman has appeared in just five games (six if you count the All Star Game) in July, and will enter play today with a full week of rest.

It will be another long day for the bullpen today, as Carlos Villanueva makes his first start of the season (Also noted in FanShot). Villanueva is expected to pitch 3-4 innings and be followed to the mound by Tim Dillard, who isn't getting the start he expected today but is just happy to be here.

There's disrespect all around this decision. First, Macha decides to pitch Villanueva over Dillard because Dillard "is kind of limited in his pitches." Here's the problems with that logic, which I'll bullet point so I don't go on all day about them:

The bullpen is exhausted and desperately needs someone to eat innings. Dillard pitched eight innings his last time out in AAA. Villanueva is expected to go 3-4 today.
Villanueva has allowed 13 earned runs in his last 8.2 innings. View From Bernie's Chalet argues that Villanueva does not give the Brewers the best chance to win.
Dillard takes shots left and right for not getting strikeouts or having weak secondary stuff, but he gets outs. He's averaging roughly 6.1 innings per start and posting a 3.66 ERA in AAA, where he leads the PCL with ten wins. He is exactly what the Brewers need in a starter right now.

The disrespect for Dillard doesn't end there. His seven inning, one hit shutout for Nashville last week earned him PCL Pitcher of the Week honors, but the award was presented to Tom Dillard. (h/t Rattler Radio)

Baseball Digest Daily says the Brewers can win the Central if they can go 38-25 the rest of the way. The Nationals need to go 61-3 and are scrambling to schedule 64 more games against the Brewers. The Bucky Channel is ready to admit this team is no longer a playoff contender. Over at Cute Sports, tristarscoop says she's embarrassed to be a Brewer fan right now. Quevedo at the Buffet is splitting time between lamenting the Jeff Suppan signing and looking ahead to next year. John Buchel says the beer doesn't even taste good in the Brewer clubhouse.

Some production from the catcher spot would really help the Brewers turn things around. Jason Kendall (ranked 22nd in catcher career WAR) has the second lowest OPS+ among players qualified for the batting title. If the Brewers are in fact sliding out of contention, and most signs point to it, it might be time for the Brewers to sit Kendall down and see what they have in Mike Rivera and Angel Salome.

Here's your daily lumping of trade market notes:

Mike Wilner of Toronto's The Fan 590 says Roy Halladay would approve a trade to Milwaukee, for whatever it's worth.
Larry Stone of the Seattle Times discussed trade rumors with Jarrod Washburn, who doesn't sound too eager to leave Seattle.
Now that the possibility of trading J.J. Hardy for two months of Washburn has passed, Doug Melvin has moved on and is now offering Hardy in exchange for a 1969 Camaro.

The Brewers could free up one roster spot for a new player by cutting their losses on Bill Hall. Brewer Paradise Lost wonders if it's time to dump Hall once and for all and eat his contract. Keeping Hall on the roster just because he's getting money either way is just compounding a bad decision.

The Crew dropped seven spots to 18th in Inside the Majors' Power Rankings. That was the largest drop of any team.

Maybe, though, the Brewers can still get hot. Anyone can get hot, as it turns out: just ask the 2003 Brewers, the third worst team ever to win ten straight games.

Around baseball:

Giants: Acquired Ryan Garko from the Indians for a minor league pitcher.
Reds: Placed Micah Owings (shoulder stiffness) and Chris Dickerson (bruised shoulder) on the DL.
Twins: Kevin Slowey will have surgery to remove bone chips from his wrist and miss the rest of the season.

If you need some help making it through the day today, here's a section I'll call "It could be worse."

The Brewers could be the Royals, who have lost eleven of twelve games but aren't planning on making any changes.
They could be the Reds, who are 45-53, fifth place, 3.5 games back of the fourth place Brewers and seven back of the Cubs, but still see themselves as contenders in the Central.
Or, they could be the Mets, who held a press conference yesterday to jump from one fiasco (the insanity of Asst. VP Tony Bernazard) to another, as Omar Minaya called out a reporter. The reporter's response is here. Jon Heyman is already making a list of new potential GMs.

A little Brewer history to close out today's Mug: On this day in 1997, Steve Woodard beat Roger Clemens 1-0 to earn his first major league victory. Exactly three years later, he was traded to the Indians in the trade that made Richie Sexson a Brewer.

Drink up.

Twins Mid-Season Elias Rankings

Jesse — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:00:14 -0000

From MLB Trade Rumors on Sunday night:

Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts reverse-engineered the Elias Rankings last year. Eddie's incredible work was made possible in large part due to information provided by ESPN's Keith Law. Eddie is now providing the rankings exclusively to MLB Trade Rumors. Today's snapshot covers the beginning of the 2008 season through July 11th of 2009. So the rankings will obviously change over the next few months.

I'll give you the link for a comprehensive list of all MLB, but first we'll review where some of your Twins sat.

Catchers	Score	Type
Joe Mauer	94.470	A
Mike Redmond	41.935	None
Jose Morales	32.488	None

The highest ranking catcher in all of baseball, by a sizeable margin, this really isn't a surprise. There really isn't much more you can say about it, other than mentioning that his 94.47 score is the second highest anywhere on this list. Only Roy Halladay tops it. For catchers the cutoff between Type A and Type B players was somewhere between 72.120 (Jason Varitek) and 75.115 (Dioner Navarro). The cutoff between Type B and no type at all is 53.456 (Miguel Olivo) and 50.961 (Kenji Johjima).

1B/OF/DH	Score	Type
Justin Morneau	84.12	A
Jason Kubel	68.33	B
Delmon Young	53.01	None
Denard Span	52.19	None
Michael Cuddyer	51.92	None
Carlos Gomez	36.99	None

A few more surprises here, some bigger than others. Morneau, for example, gets the highest score in this category in the American League. Then there's the close cluster of Young, Span and Cuddyer...which, like Elias rankings can do from time to time, confuses the hell out of me. Span and Cuddyer's part-time duties in '08, for one reason or another, is a likely cause of these rankings. I know playing time counts in the eyes of Elias, although Cuddyer's .699 OPS last season has to be a part of it as well.

Here, the split between Type A and Type B is 72.05 (Carlos Quentin) and 71.64 (Xavier Nady). Between Type B and no type is 57.67 (Jacoby Ellsbury) and 56.58 (B.J. Upton).

2B/SS/3B	Score	Type
Brendan Harris	57.74	None
Joe Crede	52.38	None
Nick Punto	48.21	None
Brian Buscher	41.16	None
Matt Tolbert	20.30	None

I think Crede is close enough to the Type B cutoff that he could play himself into that position if he stays healthy the rest of the season. Harris is the top-ranking player without a designation, so if he can get regular playing time and hit a bit better he should be able to attain B status as well. Mike Lowell (74.15) is the bottom of the Type A's, with the highest Type B being Chone Figgins (73.47). Directly above Harris, hanging on to his Type B status, is Alex Gordon (58.50).

Starting Pitchers	Score	Type
Scott Baker	78.860	A
Nick Blackburn	74.035	B
Kevin Slowey	73.509	B
Glen Perkins	64.123	B
Francisco Liriano	44.298	None
Anthony Swarzak	20.263	None

Even with that start Baker pulls off a strong score here, ranking 14th among starting pitchers in the American League. Blackburn's golden first half gives him a strong boost, and he's the highest ranked Type B on the list coming about .350 short of a Type A. If Perkins and Slowey can come back after the Break and simply turn in performances they're capable of, they should be able to maintain. It's Liriano, who comes in roughly ten points short of Type-B status, who has the longest road ahead of him to change his designation. Not that it really matters anyway, since he's not a free agent at the end of the year anyway.

Relief Pitchers	Score	Type
Joe Nathan	86.842	A
Matt Guerrier	59.153	B
Jose Mijares	54.729	B
Bobby Keppel	52.174	None
Boof Bonser	39.359	None
R.A. Dickey	37.681	None
Brian Duensing	34.554	None
Pat Neshek	32.456	None

There's no Jesse Crain on this list, but I can't imagine he'd be much higher than the bottom rung of a Type B after the season he's started with the Twins. Nathan's score is the second highest for relievers, second to (naturally) Mariano Rivera (87.109). Keppel has pitched well in his brief stint with the team, thus his respectable score. Darren Oliver (66.514) is the lowest rated Type A, just above Joba Chamberlain (65.217) and the Type B's. Mijares is the lowest rated B status bullpen arm.

Of course, none of this matters. Everything will change by season's end, and for most of these players it won't matter anyway. Only Crede and Redmond are potential free agents, everyone else is either still under team control or under contract. But it's still interesting to see where people rank.

Here's the complete list.

Blackburn Throws Third Complete Game of 2009

Jesse — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 21:53:29 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

5 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Justin Morneau watches the flight of his two-run home run off Detroit Tigers' Rick Porcello in the fourth inning of a baseball game Sunday, July 5, 2009 in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Browse more photos »

So far, Twins starters have logged three complete games this season. Nick Blackburn owns them all.

In 2008, Kevin Slowey tallied a trio of complete games. Johan Santana and Brad Radke each had three in '05, and the Bradke also had three in '03. With half of a year left, Blackburn has the chance to be the first Twins pitcher since 2001 to throw more than three complete games in a season. The last guys to do accomplish the feat were Joe Mays (four) and, naturally, Radke again (six).

It's been a stellar season for Nick to this point, and I think you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who realistically thought that Blackburn would not just be the ace of the staff, but more than worthy of All-Star consideration. His ERA is outstanding, at 2.94, and his 116.1 innings should give him the fifth-highest total in MLB. The strikeouts don't look sexy, and the base runner numbers aren't elite, but there's no doubt that he's still been one of the most effective starters in the American League to this point. And it's been a lot of fun to watch.

Sunday afternoon, Blackburn kicked it all off by stringing up eight goose eggs in a row. Well, starting things off...topping them off...it was all the same today. The Tigers did pound a pair of runs across in the ninth, when Brandon Inge (an All-Star in his own right) hit his 19th home run of the year, driving in Don Kelly who had reached when Denard Span dropped one in center. Two runs, one earned, in nine innings for Blackburn, with six strikeouts and just a single walk. Is that good? Yes. Yes, it is.

How did he do it, especially without a single double play? Quick innings for a start, retiring the side with single-digit pitch totals four times. Three pitches per plate appearance will always make for a quick night (one way or the other). But nasty movement on his fastball was a pretty big deal. Check it out.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

That's nasty movement. If Nick can continue to get that kind of break on his fastball (a pitch that Brooks believes he threw 36 times on Sunday afternoon), he'll have no problem being consistently effective.

For their part, the Twins landed all six runs of Blackburn's support in one inning. Poor Rick Porcello just couldn't get it together, and even when he made a good pitch he couldn't buy an out. Let's illustrate the bottom of the fourth in bullet points...

Brendan Harris strikes out on five pitches.
Joe Mauer singles.
Justin Morneau homers (2 RBI). He just golfed it into the football stadium seats in center field, no doubt about it.
Jason Kubel singles.
Kubel out on the bases. (AARRGHHH!!)
Michael Cuddyer walks on 10 pitches.
Joe Crede singles.
Delmon Young singles (RBI).
Nick Punto walks.
Span gets a bases-clearing single (3 RBI, thanks to Adam Everett putting a major sail on the ball).
Harris out for the second time in the inning.

It just wouldn't stop. Porcello threw 39 pitches in the inning, which naturally was his last. So where the Tigers were forced to go to a short bullpen, Blackburn gave his bullpen two days off.

Another series win in the books, and at 43-40 the Twins are now just two games out of first place. Four series wins in a row under their belts, and things are starting to look pretty good. The boys are off tomorrow, but a mid-week series sees the Yankees come to town before the White Sox close out the first half.

More Twins/Tigers coverage from SB Nation.
The best Tigers coverage on the 'net.

Stars of the Game
#3: Denard Span (2-for-4, RBI, .066 WPA)
#2: Justin Morneau (2-for-4, HR, 2 RBI, R, .179 WPA)
#1: Nick Blackburn (9 IP, 7 H, 6 K, 1 BB, 2 R, .268 WPA)